KENYA VOTES 2022 ; ; 1. ELECTIONS 2. INSTITUTIONS ~~ 3. SECURITYOUTLINE About Center for African Progress (CAP) Survey methodology Respondents’ demographic profile Most urgent issues facing Kenya Institutional Attitudes Politics m Intention to vote @ Political party affiliation m Political alliance affiliation m Knowledge of electable positions m Projections for 2022 NG Wy ;Roa ABOUT US (CAP) The Centre for African Progress (CAP) was founded in 2013 as a think-tank of African intellectuals that deals with economic, social and political issues across Africa The research carried out by CAP is funded by an endowment fund that it shares with other similar entities around the world. CAP is found in 34 African countries, and plans are underway to cover the rest of the continent. CAP is the only researcher that correctly predicted Kenya's polls in 2017Previous Prediction - 2017 If Elections were held in Keny! vote for as the President/Deputy President in Kenya? Intend to vote on 8" wugust, 20177 Raila/Kalonzo i - 0% 50! UndecidePrevious and Accurate Projection a ee a eOrul esac Who Called The eee Seen 2017 General Elections; First Elections: President Uhuru Kenyatta; 54.17%, Raila Odinga, 44.94% https: / /www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2017/08/lesser- known-kenyan-pollster-called-presidential-elections right/SURVEY METHODOLOGY > The survey was conducted across all the 47 counties between 15t -17% July, 2022 and comprised of 8,355 registered participants. > The study adopted random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size) selected from all the 47 counties. > Data was collected using face to face interviews and analyzed using SPSS and MS Excel with a margin of error of 1.5 percent and a 95% confidence level. > The target population for the poll was 18 years and above who were living and registered as voters in Kenya -_ 195 18 aRESPONDENTS’ DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE = PEST no ora scnon | asp wc Some primary education | 4% | Primary education ooo ‘completed fl 12% ‘ome secondary ‘education ne Secendary edaton ‘completed 36% Some middle vel meee cout college (not university) 8% ut sis Completed misled ga, cotoge at unwers) —- Some Unversity & 14% ‘education % 4 10% University eaieation ‘completed ™ a 2% Post graduate Masters, | yop MBA, PHO) Own a mebile phoneBase: All Respondents (n=8,355)Most urgent issue by Gender “In your opinion, what is the most urgent issue facing Kenya today that incoming political leaders should address?” (By Gender) Wore aes Tan Tomales arene aie ToL inated ea) a8 iiss enue ea) mentioned water as a 238 32 32% a4 serious problem 2% 20% 198 1 10% : i i o% High cos of ng Lack of Corruption _Crimeyinsecurty Water problems Poor roads employment Base: All Respondents (n=8,355)Most pressing problems in Nairobi county “In your opinion, what is the most urgent issue facing Kenya today that incoming political leaders should address?” (By Region) sigh cost of living m Lack of employment m Corruption mCrime/insecurity m Water problems m Poor roads . Coast Central_-—Nairobi_ North Eastern Eastem Rift Valley Nyanza_-—-Westem Base: All Respondents (n=8,355) AInstitutional Attitudes > IEBC: Does you believe IEBC has capacity to conduct a free and fair general elections? 60% 54% 50% 44% 40% 20% 20% 10% a * — Yes No Don't know Base: All Respondents (n=8,355)Institutional Attitudes to 1%Institutional Attitudes » Do you think there shall be election related violence after the Presidential poll is announced? If yes, do you think the security agencies have the capacity to contain such violence? A. Possibility of election-related violence _B. Capacity of security agencies oe ne o 20% 20% ae No Yes Dont knowELECTIONS 2022: Intention to Vote > ‘Do you intend to vote in the upcoming general elections? (8y Tota) YES; 95% Don't know; 2% NO; 3%. Base: Al Respondents (n=8,386) aanElections: Intention to Vote % of respondents intending to vote 100% ) 94% 92% 97% 35% 95% 94% es) 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Total Female Male 18 - 24 yrs25 - 34 yrs35- 44 yrs 45+ yrs Base: All Respondents (n=8,355)Political Party Affiliation “Which political party do you identify with if any?” (By Total) : : = a a = = = = 2 ¥ Base: All Respondents (n=8,355)Political Party Affiliation “Which political coalition will you vote for in the upcoming general elections?” (By Total) Unsur Base: All Respondents (n=8,355)Knowledge of Electable Positions “Which political positions will be voters be voting for in the upcoming general election??” (By Total) 99: ve 95% at TT 72: Nember of etn 5) 2 Women Representatve I 51% ‘Member of County Asserrbly is 675 DenttKow I 36 Refused to Answer M2 Base: All Respondents (n=8,355)Knowledge of Electable Positions “Which political positions will be voters be voting for in the upcoming general election??”(By Gender) 00% 9 98% . Hi o% Presidency Governer_ Senator Member of Women Base: All Respondents (n=8,355) NutsIf the election were held today, which candidate would you vote for? Professor George Wajackoyah Ba Wiliam Ruto ih David Waihiga Mwaure a Raila Odinga & Not sure yet/Don't Know/Refused...........06Prediction for 2022 Coast Region PROJECTION -COASTALREGION 10% 708 ; os 50% i os s wo 3 2% 10 2 MOEA wa WuuFI TANA RIVER LA TATA TAVETA, HON, PALA ODNGA os 2 oe 7 THON WLAN UTO 3 os i Fe o ue SPROE. WAIACOYAN ‘ i 1 3 ‘sunocaoD t x 0% ® o cNei North Eastern Region NORTH-EASTERN PROJECTIONS 2% ore 2% 2% o% 1%Eastern Region ASTERN PROJECTIONS UNDECIDED ° ° % = aCentral Region CENTRAL PROJECTIONSRift Valley Region RIFT VALLEY PROJECTIONS. “TLLELULL G centreeRe Nyanza Region NYANZA PROJECTIONS. LLLNairobi Region NAIROBI PROJECTION z sa a a re EGSTERDYOTES202) yoy atacanca | oN. wlannUTO | or waincrovan | UNBCGOED Value and Wa) a co % ®HON, WILLIAM RUTO PROF WARCKOYAR Western Region WESTERN PROJECTION 2% a 50%NATIONAL AVERAGE verallTL ious