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dawn.com/news/1732064/hounding-journalists

January 17, 2023

WHEN it comes to press freedom, the arrest of journalist Shahid

Aslam highlights the weaknesses in our democracy and the
state’s failure to do the right thing. Mr Aslam was arrested by the
FIA after the publication of an online story about retired army
chief Gen Qamar Bajwa’s taxes and wealth statements last
November. According to the article, Gen Bajwa’s family amassed
billions of rupees in the last six years. It is alleged that Mr Aslam,
who has been sent to jail on judicial remand, contributed to the
story by leaking data, but the journalist who wrote the story later
said Mr Aslam had no connection to it. Mr Aslam’s lawyer, too,
has told the court that the journalist committed no illegality. Yet
he is being hounded.

Mr Aslam’s arrest is part of an age-old pattern: the state cracks

down on negative coverage of powerful quarters by arresting
media personnel it holds responsible. All too often, journalists
have been dragged to court, threatened and intimidated for
publishing stories that have raised questions about military
officers. This case again proves that the state prefers to shoot the
messenger rather than open an inquiry about the message. Mr
Aslam’s arrest, the demands for his passwords and access to his
phone and laptop violate the protections guaranteed to
journalists by law. If the state is so concerned it should have
focused on how the details were ‘leaked’ at the government’s end,
if indeed, it was an illegal action. But more important is the
necessity of an investigation by the FBR and other relevant
bodies of how the alleged vast amount was accumulated in the
rst place. Unfortunately, successive governments, even if
fi
elected democratically, have been only too happy to facilitate the
persecution of journalists at the behest of a higher authority. To
prove that Pakistan is not a democracy in name only, the state
must release Mr Aslam and refrain from such knee-jerk
reactions.

Published in Dawn, January 17th, 2023

Opinion

Elections, inevitable?

Arifa Noor
As the country gears up for elections, three factors will be critical
to the developments ahead.

Editorial

Updated 17 Jan, 2023

Sindh LG polls

Regardless of who emerges as the winner in Karachi, it is clear

that the task for the new mayor of the megacity will be
gargantuan.
17 Jan, 2023

Auto prices

OVER the past year, inefficiencies and unfair practices in our

domestic automobile market, import restrictions,...

17 Jan, 2023
WHEN it comes to press freedom, the arrest of journalist Shahid
Aslam highlights the weaknesses in our democracy and...

Updated 16 Jan, 2023

Red lines

When civilian leaders cede space, red lines multiply and become
more arbitrary, serving objectives that have little to do with
national security.

16 Jan, 2023

Dropping remittances

ONE hopes the 19pc year-over-year decline in December

remittances has given the resident ‘wizard’ in Q Block ...

16 Jan, 2023

Crackdown on HDT

IT is unfortunate that rather than engaging with Balochistan’s

Haq Do Tehreek politically, the state is cracking...


Auto prices - Newspaper - DAWN.COM

dawn.com/news/1732068/auto-prices

January 17, 2023

OVER the past year, inefficiencies and unfair practices in our

domestic automobile market, import restrictions, stratospheric
increases in car prices due to exchange rate fluctuations, and
prohibitively high automobile financing rates due to the State
Bank’s restrictive monetary policy have all but made it
impossible for the middle class to purchase a new vehicle. Sales
of passenger cars — which drive the majority of the industry’s
sales — have resultantly taken a steep hit. The decline has been
so sharp that several major automobile companies have recently
announced plant closures to cope with the slump. While it may
not seem to be the country’s most pressing concern at the
moment, the automobile industry and its fortunes are as closely
followed by the citizenry as perhaps the dollar exchange rate or
gold prices. The affordability of new cars is an indicator of the
overall economic health of the country as well as how evenly
wealth is being distributed. This is why it comes as little surprise
that rising automobile prices have once again become a topic of
concern in broader conversations around the economy.

Due to the reasons mentioned earlier, there has been a sharp

drop in passenger car sales in the six months from July-
December 2022 compared to the same period of the previous
year. The sudden unaffordability of most vehicles, to the
layperson, tells them how rapidly their wealth has lost its value.
Nothing makes people realise how much worse they’re doing
today than knowing that what they could have bought a year ago
is now out of reach for them. The resultant anger being directed
at both the government and automakers is justifiable. Due to bad
policies and misplaced priorities, the established assemblers
have still not localised production to a level that they would not
need to gouge customers to offset frequent fluctuations in the
dollar-rupee exchange rate. The policy to diversify the industry
by inviting new players, including from Malaysia, South Korea
and China, provided a glimmer of hope, but the fact remains that
newer, better automobiles still remain unaffordable for most
households. It should be asked how long auto manufacturers can
be allowed to burden the exchequer with their demands for
concessions and subsidies, especially when they are doing very
little to benefit the majority in terms of providing affordable
products that can improve general standards of living.

Published in Dawn, January 17th, 2023

Must Read

Editorial: Questions raised by PTI, JUI on transparency of Sindh LG polls

must be adequately addressed

Regardless of who emerges as the winner in Karachi, it is clear

that the task for the new mayor of the megacity will be
gargantuan.

Editorial
Updated 17 Jan, 2023

Sindh LG polls

Regardless of who emerges as the winner in Karachi, it is clear

that the task for the new mayor of the megacity will be
gargantuan.

17 Jan, 2023

Auto prices

OVER the past year, inefficiencies and unfair practices in our

domestic automobile market, import restrictions,...

17 Jan, 2023

Hounding journalists

WHEN it comes to press freedom, the arrest of journalist Shahid

Aslam highlights the weaknesses in our democracy and...

Updated 16 Jan, 2023

Red lines

When civilian leaders cede space, red lines multiply and become
more arbitrary, serving objectives that have little to do with
national security.

16 Jan, 2023

Dropping remittances
ONE hopes the 19pc year-over-year decline in December
remittances has given the resident ‘wizard’ in Q Block ...

16 Jan, 2023

Crackdown on HDT

IT is unfortunate that rather than engaging with Balochistan’s

Haq Do Tehreek politically, the state is cracking...

Sindh LG polls - Newspaper

dawn.com/news/1732069/sindh-lg-polls

January 17, 2023

After much ado, the second phase of local government elections

in Sindh was held on Sunday, despite the provincial
government’s best efforts to delay this crucial democratic
exercise indefinitely. Thanks to the ECP’s firmness, polls were
held primarily in urban Sindh, including Karachi, Hyderabad
and a few other districts, to elect representatives to the third tier.

Before Sunday’s electoral exercise, Pakistan’s biggest city had

been without elected representation at the local level for nearly
two and a half years. The polling process was largely peaceful,
though marked by low turnout, for which various reasons were
responsible.

At the time of writing, the PPP had already captured the most
seats in Hyderabad; surprisingly, the ruling party was also
leading in Karachi. Jamaat-i-Islami, which ran a spirited
campaign and lobbied for the polls, had the second-highest
number of seats in Karachi, while the MQM-P, which traditionally
dominated electoral politics in urban Sindh, sat this one out
because of what it saw as unjust delimitations and ‘fake’ voters’
lists.

It is a matter of concern that the JI and PTI have raised questions

about the transparency of the polls, particularly the late
compilation of Karachi’s results, with both parties alleging that
state machinery was used to rig the elections. As we have seen on
the national stage, unless these allegations are adequately
addressed, controversy will mar the LG polls and put a question
mark over the transparency of the process. Therefore, if the
opposition parties have solid proof of illegal practices being used
to influence the polls, they must produce it, while the PPP-led
administration and ECP must satisfy critics of the transparency
of the LG polls.

Regardless of who emerges as the winner in Karachi, it is clear

that the task for the new mayor of the megacity will be
gargantuan. Ensuring that the elections were held was itself a
major achievement; convincing all of their fairness will be even
more challenging, while getting down to work and rebuilding
this metropolis, and indeed the rest of Sindh, into a livable 21st-
century urban space will be the toughest task of all.

For this, the 2013 Sindh local government law needs changes,
particularly to empower the mayor of Karachi and other civic
bodies in the province with the tools needed to run an effective
administration. If the Karachi mayor remains a figurehead, and
all municipal powers continue to be concentrated in the
provincial government, the LG polls will largely be a cosmetic
exercise.

Water and sewerage, solid waste, planning and building control,

among other functions, must all be overseen by an elected
mayor. Karachi is in ruins, and unless the provincial
administration supports the incoming mayor with powers and
finances, the deprivation of the megacity will only increase.

Published in Dawn, January 17th, 2023

Paying the climate bill

dawn.com/news/1732070/paying-the-climate-bill

January 17, 2023

THE International Conference on Climate-Resilient Pakistan in

Geneva has exceeded expectations. More than $9 billion have
been pledged to help curtail the effects of last year’s floods which
have cost Pakistan over $30bn in ‘loss and damage’. Pakistan’s
floods are a classic case of climate injustice.

But the devil lies in the details. Most of the support from the $9bn
pledged is likely to be realised over a period of several years. It is
yet to be determined how much of this amount will be in the
form of grants (versus loans).

There have been several voices of late alluding to the possibility

of such funds being diverted. It is a point that has frequently
been raised as a pretext for the withholding of funds to Pakistan
in the past. Corruption and misgovernance come up as crucial
factors in shaping this argument.

Such a line of argumentation is difficult to tackle — from the

perspective of both the donor and the recipient. There are tens of
millions of flood victims in the country who are in dire need of
support; but, at the same time, concerns about possible funding
leakages also exist.
‘Colonialism’ is a crucial driver of climate change.

The 2022 floods also spurred debate on ‘climate reparations’ by

the developed countries — with the latter being held responsible
for the menace of climate change as historical emitters since the
Industrial Revolution. In fact, recent scientific research also
suggests ‘colonialism’ (which Pakistan is a victim of) as a crucial
driver of climate change.

A recent report of the Intergovern­m­e­n­tal Panel on Climate

Change, which rev­iews the impact of climate change on
populations, “listed ‘colonialism’ not only as a driver of the
climate crisis but also as an ongoing issue that is exacerbating
communities’ vulnerability to it”, hence putting a greater burden
of responsibility on the shoulders of the developed countries.

Believing that former colonies, such as Pakistan, after achieving

independence have been free from the effects of their colonial
past is to be deluded. The phrase ‘out of the frying pan and into
the fire’ appears true for most successor states.

In South Asia, following independence, successor states were

‘colonised’ by their own leaders. Self-colonisation came about
through the efforts of local rulers jumping in to fill the power
vacuum that the colonisers left behind. They were quick to
inherit the malpractices of their former masters and
consolidated their control by corrupting the bureaus that were
left in place in a manner that ensured their grip over the state. It
comes as no surprise then that the ministries and institutions
responsible for curtailing the effects of climate change lack
infrastructure and the required expertise.

Pakistan’s share of emissions globally is next to nothing in

contrast to developed nations. Bring colonialism-related
misgovernance into the equation and you will see climate
injustice at its ‘finest’.
Corruption within the Pakistani government does not mean that
no one has made the effort to combat the effects of the changing
climate. Efforts by various NGOs are a testament to the nation’s
charitable nature and its willingness to set aside self-interest to
help those in need of help to rebuild their homes and lives. In
fact, volunteers associated with many of these NGOs reached the
affected areas in remote locations well before the government
machinery began to carry out its flood relief activities. One
example of a self-driven initiative is Intbau Pakistan that has not
only designed flood-resistant housing built of mud, husk, bamboo
and lime but also provided training to villagers to build such
sustainable hou­ses indigenously using low-cost construction
material.

In the longer term, it is crucial to understand the linkages

between climate change and the type of developmental paradigm
that is being pursued. In this regard, the Pakistani government
has envisioned a robust plan for resilient development through
an initiative named The Living Indus. This has been described as
“an umbrella initiative and a call to action to lead and
consolidate initiatives to restore the ecological health of the
Indus within the boundaries of Pakistan, which is most
vulnerable to climate change”.

Going forward, it is imperative for developed countries as donors

to make sure that the hard-earned money of their taxpayers
reaches the people it is meant for. It should also be an obligation
for these countries to put in place a robust monitoring and
evaluation system to track the flow of finances and strengthen
the capacity of institutions as well as individuals and help them
through the transfer of technology where needed.
Fahad Saeed is an Islamabad-based climate scientist. Fateh Tahir is
his associate.

Published in Dawn, January 17th, 2023

Listening to GB - Newspaper
dawn.com/news/1732071/listening-to-gb

January 17, 2023

LOCAL protesters have been peacefully demonstrating in Skardu

for two weeks, under the shadow of the fluttering green-and-
white Pakistani flag. All profess to be Pakistanis, and have
Pakistani passports and ID cards. Their elders liberated this
region after an armed struggle with the regular army of the
Kashmir state.

Today, the protesters lobby for GB as a federating unit of

Pakistan. Their major demands include: integration of the region
as a province thus resolving its status as disputed territory; land
ownership rights in the liberated area; exemption from taxes
without defined status; opening the border with Kargil to
facilitate cross-border interaction of divided families; and
restoring the wheat subsidy granted by the PPP government in
1973.

Provincial status is key to settling all other demands. After

acceding to Pakistan in 1947, the trusting GB residents presumed
that the deputation of a semi-literate junior officer as political
agent by the Pakistani government signified acceptance of their
request for integration. However, the region’s fate was sealed by
the Karachi Agreement with Kashmiri leaders who consented to
indefinite bureaucratic control of GB without consulting the local
leadership. And yet, GB residents remained loyal.

For almost 25 years, the area was ruled under the black colonial
FCR. In the hope of creating support for a plebiscite, our foreign
affairs czars defined GB as a disputed territory of Jammu &
Kashmir. This twisted narrative was used to legitimise the
repressive GB administration in the name of national interest.
The demand for rights is getting louder.

Education and awareness via social media have fuelled the

demand for resolving GB’s contested status. Civil society took its
case to the Supreme Court. After years of hearings, a landmark
judgement in 2019 rescinded the Government of Gilgit Baltistan
Order, 2018, in favour of a newly agreed draft Gilgit-Baltistan
Governance Reforms Order, 2019. On the pretext of converting it
into an act of parliament, the PML-N continued to administer the
area through the 2018 order, thus diluting the powers delegated
by the PPP under the 2009 law. The subsequent PTI government
also continued with the 2018 order, reneging on its pledge to
accord GB full provincial status and rights.
Impelled by public pressure and the verdict, the PTI government
finally launched a process to grant provisional provincial status
to GB via a constitutional amendment, ensuring its
representation in parliament and in all constitutional
institutions.

However, ignoring the two earlier, unanimous resolutions of the

GB Provincial Legislative Assembly, the centre referred it to the
local government for endorsement, a ruse to stall the process.
Unexpectedly, the highly educated GB chief minister played
along, referring the reference to a committee of the local
assembly, which delayed the endorsement to protect their tenure
for two more years in the local assembly. Sadly, the CM chose
opportunism over the chance to right a historical wrong.

In rare concert, the PML-N federal government and the PTI GB

government proved to be complicit in trampling on GB residents’
constitutional rights. Despite a positive earlier record in
supporting the locals’ demand, the PPP has remained silent out of
political expediency. Such decisions by national parties compel a
blind subservience from the local leadership, causing the latter to
be party to GB’s continuing subjugation. Locked in squabbling,
political parties are too distracted to deliver on local electoral
promises to resolve the issue of GB’s fundamental rights. Thus,
two million GB residents, who are proud to call themselves
Pakistanis, feel let down.

As the current local government is too impotent to address the

issues of constitutional and land ownership rights, taxation,
wheat subsidy and border management, the discontent
engendered by an authoritarian legal framework has ignited
unprecedented protests.
GB’s residents cannot be denied the right to be integrated into
Pakistan. Nor can their status remain in limbo. They are justified
in demanding ownership rights to the land they liberated and in
refusing to accept laws/practices of the former Dogra occupiers.
With reference to the Kargil border management policy, the
policies adopted in AJK, Punjab and Sindh can easily be
replicated in GB.

While the Indian media projects these peaceful protests as anti-

Pakistan, the high-flying Pakistani flag at the venue of the protest
and the desperate demand for integration remain
unacknowledged. A word to the powers that be: these protests
must be shown on our national media to dispel misgivings about
the intentions of the protesters who not only state but also truly
believe that they are more ‘Pakistani than Pakistanis’, a fact
borne out by their record of loyalty to Pakistan.

The writer, a former IGP Sindh, belongs to Gilgit-Baltistan.

Published in Dawn, January 17th, 2023

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M. Emad
Jan 17, 2023 08:09am

Anger, Rage & Explosive Outbursts ---- GB, Karachi, FATA &
Balochistan youths.

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As opium is to heroin addicts

dawn.com/news/1732072/as-opium-is-to-heroin-addicts

January 17, 2023

ROMILA Thapar delivered yet another magisterial lecture on

history last week. Titled ‘Our history. Their history. Whose
history?’, the 91-year-old professor wove the theme around a
quote from Eric Hobsbawn whose work has spawned
generations of fine scholars and public intellectuals worldwide.

Writing about the abuse of history, in the 1990s in particular, by

movements that produced nationalist myths and legends,
Hobsbawn cautioned against the threat in the influential volume
The Invention of Tradition, which also had essays among others
by Hugh Trevor-Roper and Bernard Cohn. “History is the raw
material for nationalist or ethnic or fundamentalist ideologies, as
poppies are the raw material for heroin addiction. The past is an
essential element, perhaps the essential element, in these
ideologies. If there is no suitable past, it can always be invented.”

Indeed, as Thapar addressed the gathering at Delhi’s India

International Centre, Mohan Bhagwat, the RSS chief, was holding
forth in an interview published at roughly the same time,
presenting the mythical golden age of India’s past as historical
fact. Given the times we are in, it was Bhagwat who got the
headlines. Thapar’s lecture to a familiar audience was like the
warm towel a pugilist gets to freshen up before the next bout in
the ring.

Let’s touch base with both, the ever-questioning craft of a

professional historian, and the myth-making populism of a right-
wing nationalist who claims insights into the past, present and
future of a turbulent nation. In broad strokes, the points Thapar
made flowed from her study and teaching of history couched as
they were in reason and verifiable facts. Bhagwat spoke
predictably of a grand past whose grandeur Muslim rulers in the
main had interrupted.
Thapar’s lecture to a familiar audience was like the warm towel a pugilist gets
to freshen up before the next bout in the ring.

Thapar mentioned the Hindu nation-Muslim nation binary

injected by colonial historiography, in particular by James Mill
who never visited India. It led to her other point. Hindu
nationalists extolled the valour of Maharana Pratap in the battle
of Haldighati against Mughal emperor Akbar’s forces. A closer
scrutiny would reveal that the battle for Akbar was led by his
Hindu chieftain Mansingh, whereas Pratap’s forces were shored
up by Hakim Khan Sur who led his Afghan troops in the battle
against the Mughals.
Another point: were Mansingh and Rana Pratap not representing
rival Rajput clans? It stands to reason that Thapar, without
necessarily saying so, was pointing to a less discussed historical
fact — the old animus between the Turko-Afghan sultans of Delhi
and Mongol-Chaghtai forces from Central Asia that were repelled
periodically before Babar succeeded in getting the better of the
Pakhtun Ibrahim Lodhi in 1526.

Pratap’s Pathan general was a forebear of Sher Shah Suri, the

Pathan who deposed the second Mughal emperor Humayun to
briefly rule Delhi. Muslim rivalries seen at Panipat and
Haldighati seem to be playing out even today between
Afghanistan’s Tajik-Uzbek forces and the Pakhtun Taliban.

Prof Thapar’s point had an echo in the late Kaifi Azmi’s acerbic
poem titled Pir-i-tasma-pa. “Rana Hindu tha, Akbar Musalman
tha/ … Ye aur aisi bahot si jehalat ki baatein/ Mere kaandhe per
hoti hain/ Kandhe jhukey ja rahey hain/ Qad mera raat din ghat
raha hai/ Sar kahin paaon se mil na jaae.” (Rana was a Hindu,
Akbar a Muslim. Such ignorance can crack the spine of the most
erudite among us.)

As Hobsbawn had foreseen, Hindu nationalists believe the oldest

democracy existed in ancient India. Thapar mentioned the
French revolutionaries, who saw their reflection in Greek
democracy. The Greek democracy was anything but though,
excluding from its purview slaves and aliens vital to the state’s
sinews, not different from the idea of democracy based on
hidebound hierarchy.

Ponder Prof Hobsbawm’s poppy at work. The RSS chief said

several things in the interview that could be disturbing for
India’s rocky democracy. Consider two assertions. Bhagwat,
according to the Indian Express, said Muslims have nothing to
fear in India but they must abandon their claim of supremacy.
Far from claiming any supremacy, however, the Sachar
Committee report revealed the social squalor that Muslims lived
in today.

“The simple truth is this — Hindustan should remain Hindustan.

There is no harm to Muslims living today in Bharat. If they wish
to stick to their faith, they can. If they want to return to the faith
of their ancestors, they may. It is entirely their choice. There is no
such stubbornness among Hindus. Islam has nothing to fear. But
at the same time, Muslims must abandon their boisterous
rhetoric of supremacy,” he is quoted as saying. “We are of an
exalted race; we once ruled over this land, and shall rule it again;
only our path is right, rest everyone is wrong; we are different,
therefore we will continue to be so; we cannot live together —
they (Muslims) must abandon this narrative.”

How does anyone have a reasoned conversation with this

mindset? The poor Ehsan Jafri, a poet, a former member of the
communist party and a former Lok Sabha MP for the Congress,
wrote moving patriotic poems he published in a collection titled
Qandeel (lamp). Majrooh Sultanpuri wrote a preface to the book.
What was one such poem about? “My country is the land of
Meera. My country is the land of Nanak. My country is the land
of the Buddha.” Not only did the mob cut him to pieces, senior
BJP leaders were boasting in their election campaign the other
day that the troublemakers of Gujarat were taught a good lesson,
and because of that there is peace and prosperity in Gujarat ever
since.
Bhagwat spoke of a thousand-year war the Hindus were fighting,
which made them a force to contend with. Was the release of the
convicted killers of Bilkis Bano’s family and her rapists an aspect
of this historic conflict with boisterous Muslims? How much
blood would be shed before the advent of the new golden era for
India, possibly in 2024?

The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Delhi.

jawednaqvi@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, January 17th, 2023

Elections, inevitable?
dawn.com/news/1732073/elections-inevitable

January 17, 2023

WHAT next, is the question on everyone’s minds now that Imran

Khan has crossed the Rubicon. Despite the reservations of those
around him, as well as the scepticism of those without, the PTI
and the PML-Q have dissolved the Punjab Assembly. Khan’s party,
the parliamentarians as well as his allies who were said to be the
Trojan horse placed there by the establishment, have all gone
along with him. Despite the rumours of dissent within and the
fears of losing the government, the deed was done. And the PML-
N has accepted the move and is now getting ready for an
election, instead of trying to delay it.

But as the country gears up for elections, provincial or general,

or even a new spanner in the works, here are three factors which
will be critical to the developments ahead.
The dissolution: the psychological impact of this decision should
not be underestimated. Not just because Khan is now seen as
forcing the ruling coalition to react to his decision rather than
having a strategy of their own, but also because the PTI has
successfully pushed the idea of dissolution ‘reportedly’ being
opposed by the establishment. While the PDM also hinted at this,
the most vocal evidence came from Parvez Elahi, who said in a
recent interview that the establishment was not in favour of
early elections. And then came the claims of PTI provincial-level
parliamentarians being pressured to not show up for the vote of
confidence. From phone calls to threats, it was all hinted at and
believed, for just four years ago, the PML-N made similar
allegations. But it didn’t work.

So now the perception is that Imran Khan was able to resist or

defy the establishment’s pressure, and stood his ground and
succeeded. Such is his popularity that the constituency politicians
were willing to defy the powers that be to ensure a PTI ticket for
the next election. This perception will have an impact on the
‘hawa’ (atmosphere) which plays a key role in the elections in
Punjab.
As the country gears up for elections, three factors will be critical to the
developments ahead.

The PML-N’s fightback: The PDM has suffered a similar

psychological defeat. But this, or even inflation, is not its biggest
handicap in the elections to come. The party’s biggest challenge is
the mess within the PML-N, where the main leadership continues
to be absent for unfathomable reasons.

Shehbaz Sharif is busy playing prime minister, and apparently

can’t make time for the party. Oddly enough, he is not even
expected to play a political role, which Asif Ali Zardari made time
for all through the five years the PPP was in power, and what
Khan was criticised for as prime minister because he left
politicking to the establishment.

As for the rest of the family, it is apparently sitting in London,

miffed. Nawaz Sharif is upset for being pushed into a
government in April, then accepting the harsh IMF
conditionalities and losing goodwill for the party. And because he
is miffed, he has called Maryam Nawaz over, forcing her to take
another chhutti (vacation) from politics. In addition, Hamza is
miffed because somewhere, someone, decided the party needs a
non-Sharif as the face for Punjab chief minister. Or is it because
Maryam is being treated as heir apparent by Nawaz? Whatever
the reason, he is away too.

As a result, the party has been left to muddle its way through by-
elections and more — just consider, the vote of confidence in
Punjab was handled by an unelected and young Atta Tarar and
Rana Sanaullah, who should be busy with growing terrorism but
was, instead, busy in Lahore.

But the PML-N’s success in the coming elections will depend on

the family’s ability to put their personal issues aside and focus.
And this will require far more than just Maryam Nawaz’ return;
the family will have to present a united front and a united view,
instead of swinging between aggression and reconciliation. It
would do well to remember the party’s support base is rather
narrow, for it is limited to central Punjab (unlike the PTI and PPP,
which enjoy a stable position in KP and Sindh respectively), and
if the PTI makes inroads here, the losses for PML-N can pile up.
It’s the economy: In the midst of all this confusion and the ‘they-
are-cancelled-they-are-on’ Sindh local government elections,
Ishaq Dar appeared on the screen briefly to announce that petrol
prices would remain the same. It was a reminder during this
rather hectic weekend that the IMF programme is still far from
sewn up — and chances are that the traffic blockade at the port
in Karachi, the speculation on the dollar and the larger economic
uncertainty will continue.

Unfortunately, with the election in Punjab now due, the PML-N

will be even less inclined to finalise the programme and the price
hike it will bring. But without the IMF programme, the crisis for
the entire country grows bigger.

So, let me stick my neck out and say that this delay in the IMF
programme is one indication the PML-N is not planning on an
extended stay or even till the end of parliament’s term. If it did
want an extended stay, it would have finalised the programme in
a hurry to get some breathing space in time for the elections (six
months or so after August, as it was rumoured). And even if it
expects elections in August, it can’t sustain the current state of
affairs without the IMF until then, for the foreign exchange will
run out sooner rather than later, say the experts (who are kind
enough to explain the economy to me). And perhaps this is what
prompted Dar’s brief appearance on Sunday. A personal
appearance to promise the Noon supporters that the party did its
best to not burden the people, as long as it was in power.

The writer is a journalist.

Published in Dawn, January 17th, 2023