FOR CSS 2022

ARTICULATE
HOT TOPICS INSIDE March 2022 (Volume - 21)
Pakistan’s justice system
Pakistan-Russia realigning

Edited & Compiled by Aamir Mahar

Pakistan’s energy efficiency
Pakistan geo-economic dream
Pakistan’s growth and poverty
Undeniable climate reparations
Saving Pakistan’s higher education
Recalibrating US-Iran nuclear deal
Historical amnesia on Ukraine crisis
Reforms: Institutional impediments
Rising inflation & its impact on Pakistanis
Emerging technologies and future warfare
Integral Pak-China partnership and the west?
Making sense of insurgencies and terrorism
Economy and national security are interwoven
CPEC future prospects & economic reforms
 IMRAN KHAN IN MOSCOW: PAKISTAN-RUSSIA REALIGNING?
ON THE night of 23 February 2022, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan arrived in Moscow for a two-day visit – just
hours after his host President Vladimir Putin launched the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The timing of PM Khan’s visit must
have been purely fortuitous as official visits are usually prepared well in advance. Still there had been critical voices in Pakistan
and in Western countries questioning the wisdom to go ahead with the long-planned visit of PM Khan to Moscow. The fact
that he went ahead suggests the trip was of strategic significance. Is PM Khan undertaking a major foreign policy shift? Is
Pakistan moving towards a more independent foreign policy following the US exit from Afghanistan?
Groundbreaking Visit Amid Geopolitical Quake — PM Khan’s visit to Moscow was the first by a Pakistani prime minister in
23 years. Two days later, on 25 February, President Putin and him had a three-hour long working lunch ─ one day after
Russian military forces invaded Ukraine. Ahead of the trip, the US had made it clear to Pakistan that it would be watching this
visit very closely. Defending his trip, PM Khan maintained that mainly bilateral issues were discussed. It was later disclosed
that Pakistan would purchase two million tonnes of wheat as well as natural gas from Russia. More significantly, a Pakistani
communique stated PM Khan had stressed that the Ukraine conflict was not in anyone’s interests, underlining that disputes
should be resolved through dialogue and diplomacy. But ─ like his Indian counterpart Prime Minister Narendra Modi ─ PM
Khan did not condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. There did not seem to be much domestic pressure for him to do so. His
foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi, in a call to his Ukrainian counterpart on 27 February, underscored that
“de-escalation through dialogue and diplomacy” was important. A government source told the newspaper ‘Dawn’ on 1 March:
“Pakistan decided not to take sides. Islamabad supports a peaceful and negotiated settlement.”
Diplomatic Reactions to Visit — In an unprecedented open letter, 21 Islamabad-based diplomatic envoys of European and
other Western countries urged Pakistan on the same day to condemn the Russian invasion during the UN General Assembly

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(UNGA) session. In the ongoing UNGA meeting, Josep Borell, High Representative of the EU on Foreign Affairs, called his
Pakistani counterpart to discuss the Ukraine situation. Pakistan ─ like India ─ abstained from the vote on the resolution. The
Pakistani ambassador also did not mention Russia in his speech which emphasised that Pakistan “upholds the principle of equal
and indivisible security for all” ─ a reference to Russia’s concerns. One of the main bilateral discussion points between Putin
and Khan in Moscow was their bilateral economic flagship project, the “Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline”. In 2019, Russia had
committed investing up to US$14 billion in Pakistan’s energy sector. Pakistan has fast-declining domestic gas reserves though
gas still remains an important part of its energy mix. In 2015, Russia and Pakistan agreed to build a 1,100 km-long LNG
02
pipeline from Karachi to supply power plants in the Punjab province with a planned capacity of about 12 billion cubic metres.
US sanctions on one of the three Russian companies involved delayed the project, but an agreement was signed in November
2021. Pakistan had also granted Russia access to its Gwadar port ─ one of the main hubs for the China-Pakistan Economic
Corridor (CPEC) projects. Western sanctions on Russian companies and banks in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine could
affect this bilateral project.
Evolving Pakistan-Russia Relations — The development of Pakistan-Russian relations has been remarkable considering that
for many years, they were frozen, especially during and after the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan and the Cold War. Things
began to move only after 9/11. It started after an increasing estrangement between Pakistan and the US as well as a closer US
relationship with India during the Clinton and Trump administrations. In 2011, Russia officially supported Pakistan’s bid to
join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) emphasising that Pakistan was an important partner for Russia in South
Asia and the Muslim world. In 2013, the first Russia-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue was established and in 2014, Russia lifted its
arms embargo on Pakistan and started to sell weapons to the country. The annual Pak-Russia Inter-Governmental
Commission (IGC) on trade, economic, scientific and technical cooperation started its work in 2015. Bilateral trade, however,
remains low; Russia is not among Pakistan’s 10 biggest trading partners. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited
Pakistan in April 2021, the first visit of a Russian foreign minister since 2012. Before Pakistan, however, Lavrov had visited
India, Pakistan’s arch enemy and a country with close Russian defence technology ties. It also coincided with closer
cooperation of the four Quad nations US, Japan, India and Australia. A Pakistani government communique stated after his
visit: “The cooperation between Moscow and Islamabad is based on the coincidence or similarity of positions on most of the
problems of the world community, including issues of strategic stability and countering terrorism”.
Imran Khan’s Geopolitical Moves: A New Power Triangle? — The Lavrov visit focused on “cooperation in the trade,
economic and counter-terrorism fields and on topical issues of the international and regional agenda”. The deteriorating civil
war situation in Afghanistan last year was “a common concern” during these talks. Both countries also agreed during the
Lavrov visit on joint military exercises and on increasing Pakistan’s ability to fight terrorism. Russia was worried about a
continuing instability in Afghanistan and recognised Pakistan’s leverage with the Taliban. The Pakistan-Russia Joint Military
Consultative Committee (JMCC) has met three times, the last time in September 2021. Increasing investment, military and

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 political engagement between Russia and Pakistan seems to complement Pakistan’s close economic and military ties with
China. The $62 billion multi-project CPEC is China’s flagship venture under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Pakistan
wants Chinese technological know-how and financing to help upgrade its power plant infrastructure, stimulate economic
growth and develop Pakistan into a regional economic hub. If Russia can assist with gas and gas pipelines, it will enhance both
China’s and Pakistan’s targets. PM Khan’s visit to Moscow during the ongoing Russian invasion could be a harbinger of a
further upgrading of bilateral relations, especially after Islamabad withstood recent international pressure. The combination of
closer and visible Pakistani ties with both China and Russia could point to a new tripartite geopolitical gravity centre in South
Asia. After the US Afghanistan exit, Foreign Minister Qureshi had already talked about a policy shift towards an independent
Pakistani foreign policy. In these geopolitically challenging and fast changing times, this development is likely to be followed
closely by the US, India and other regional and global players. (Dr Anne-Marie Schleich Singapore)
PAKISTAN’S GROWTH AND POVERTY
What is the relationship of economic growth with poverty reduction? Answers to this question may not fall under the ambit of
any conclusive construct, but there are a number of visible trends. The most obvious answer is that developing countries need
economic growth to reduce poverty, provided it is ‘inclusive’. There is some relatively old and new literature that lays out the
contours of this debate. Rashid Amjad has a 2003 paper on solving the poverty puzzle in the journal ‘Pakistan Development
Review’ (PDR); Gustav Papanek and SM Naseem also have a 1996 paper in PDR, which discusses some of these issues, and
Akmal Hussain has a chapter in the book ‘Rethinking Pakistan’, which offers a strong alternative point of view. There is
irrefutable empirical evidence available that economic growth is needed to reduce poverty, and it is applicable to certain
periods in contemporary Pakistan as well as other developing countries. China, Southeast Asian countries, India, Vietnam,
Bangladesh exhibited this strong correlation in the recent past. As has been written in these pages in the past, poverty has been
substantially reduced in China since the 1980s, and it is due to economic growth in China. The headcount ratio of poverty has

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been reduced by 94% in rural China from 1980 to 2015, and it has been made possible due to the phenomenal economic
growth in China. Papanek and Naseem believe that with economic growth in developing countries, labour wages go up,
leading to some reduction in poverty. They state, “a correlation analysis for six countries over 30 years comparing periods of
rapid and slow growth shows that for every one percent increase in the rate of per capita growth real wages of unskilled labour
increase by about 1.5 percent.” On the other hand, Akmal Hussain has written about market-driven growth often leading to
inequality – as happened in Pakistan in the 1960s when the tiny industrial elite was given protection, subsidies and incentives.
This “functional inequality” in the words of Mehboob-ul-Haq did not engender inclusive growth in the country. Therefore,
03 there are both interpersonal and interregional inequalities. This is due to the institutional structure in the country that drives
unsustainable growth and inequalities. Rents (unearned income) limit competition, merit, productivity incentives, innovation
and redistribute resources to a small coterie of the elite that makes the country dependent on foreign aid and stop-go cycles of
growth. According to Akmal Hussain, what is needed is ‘human economy’ instead of economic growth. There is a need to
invest in the poor and middle class and promote human development, small- and medium-sized enterprises, sustainable
agricultural practices and reducing regional inequality. Rashid Amjad’s paper lays out the basis for better macroeconomic
management as well as generation of employment-oriented economic development with backward and forward linkages so
that poverty can be addressed. Amjad emphasised four Ws: provision of water, addressing women’s deprivation, focusing on
the development of the World Wide Web (the IT revolution), and workers’ rights as a way to promote inclusive growth.
Hafiz Pasha’s recent work for the UNDP shows that the income of the bottom 40 percent of the population was more than
the national income during the 2011-2019 period of democratic governments. This is in contrast to the authoritarian rule
period poverty trends from 2001-2008 and during the PPP government’s first two years from 2008-2010, when the income of
the bottom 40 percent was less than the overall national income. Hence, inequality decreased under the rule of democratic
governments.
What is clear from the above analysis is that economic growth is intrinsic to poverty reduction; however, it has to be inclusive
growth. When there is agency in people’s voice in terms of engendering true democracy in the country, it leads to policies
that induce poverty reduction even within the aid-dependent framework of the boom and bust cycles of economic growth.
What is needed is moving out of the IMF and foreign aid dependency, incentivising productivity and dynamism in the
economy, and focusing on human and skills development that can reduce poverty through redistribution as well as an increase
in wages. Post-script: Since Imran Khan recently addressed the nation, it might be appropriate to offer a comment on it. The
prime minister spoke about Pakistan pursuing an ‘independent’ foreign policy. It sounds like a bad joke. Pakistan has been in
the Western camp since the 1950s when it entered into the SEATO and CENTO pacts. Pakistan’s relationship with the West
is decades old and still holds sway since both the West and Pakistan continue to need each other for strategic purposes. Since
the PTI government has come into power, progress on CPEC has considerably slowed down. PM Imran Khan accused the
previous democratic governments of not pursuing an independent foreign policy. CPEC, despite the West’s opposition, was
the previous PML-N’s government’s flagship project, and it helped ameliorate the energy crisis in the country. The PML-N

Compiled & Edited by Aamir Mahar — CSS Exam Desk

 certainly pursued an independent foreign policy to that extent. The prime minister recently visited Russia. However, one
foreign visit cannot undo the decades-old Pakistan’s strategic relationship with the West. Who is Imran Khan trying to fool?
(March 3, 2022, The News International)
PAKISTAN’S JUSTICE SYSTEM
Why is Pakistan’s justice system perceived to be a ‘weak’ system? Why is it failing to safeguard the lives and property of
citizens and protect contracts to boost the economy? Why is timely justice not being delivered to the people? Can our justice
system be reformed? Such questions are often raised as rule of law, constitutionalism and judicial independence deteriorate in
the country. The World Justice Project’s Rule of Law Index 2021 report shows that Pakistan is among the lowest-ranked
countries in its adherence to rule of law, ranking 130th out of 139 nations. This is alarming. There may not be straightforward
answers to these questions. Easy entry into the bar, the failure of bar councils to provide professional training and maintain
accountability of lawyers, lack of objective criteria and merit in judicial appointments and political offices of the bar, lack of
sustained institutional dialogue and engagement between the bench and bar, and poor government support for legal and
judicial reforms could be some reasons for the weakening of our justice system.
Institutional reforms are a complex phenomenon. Judicial and legal reforms require government commitment and support,
and the implementation of court decisions depends on the executive branch of government. Thus, lawyers and judges may not
be held solely responsible for the poor administration of justice. However, they can play an effective role to improve the
system, focusing their energy on addressing the lack of institutional capacity – including judicial and legal capacity – and
accountability and inexcusable delays. Institutional reforms in the judiciary require a robust effort within constitutional
parameters. This requires awareness, momentum, the will to bring reforms, amendments to laws governing the appointment
and accountability of judges, capacity building and the accountability of the bar, and integration of technology as well as

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improvements in other institutions such as the police and prosecution to reduce delays. The existing constitutional scheme for
the appointment and accountability of superior court judges, and the procedure prescribed for entry into the legal profession as
well as the training and accountability of lawyers have failed to improve the quality of our justice system. The procedural
conduct of bar elections without meaningful reforms results in income inequality and class- and gender-based discrimination
among lawyers. Despite the poor performance of our justice system, there seems to be no motivation for reforms, and bar
politics remains afflicted with an acute and pernicious sort of stagnation. There is a perception that some bar members exert
their political clout to get favorable decisions from the courts which lack independence. This weakens judicial independence
04 and fuels patterns of discrimination amongst lawyers. Also, effective and transparent accountability proceedings against judges
and lawyers are rare. There are also incidents of violence and attacks on judges, lawyers, and litigants without any effective
action against those involved. The performance of judges should be audited, and those who fail to meet the standards
prescribed by the judiciary may be provided additional training or removed from office. Similarly, bar members engaged in
professional misconduct and the misuse of political offices should be dealt with. At the same time, bar councils should support
professional lawyers in terms of training and matters relating to the public interest. When talented young lawyers do not see
any means of progressing based on merit, they sometimes turn to violence and exploitative politics.
The founding fathers of Pakistan envisaged a homeland where the rights of citizens would be fully protected without any
discrimination. The people of Pakistan want a strong state with rule of law and a well-functioning democracy – a state where
the constitution is supreme, the judiciary is independent, and all citizens are equal before the law and are entitled to equal
protection of the law. To achieve these broad objectives, the legal fraternity should focus on three specific reforms: the welfare
and responsibility of the bar, bar councils elections, and the appointment, independence and accountability of judges. As
lawyers, we need to pursue amendments in the Legal Practitioner and Bar Councils Act, 1973 and the 1976 rules made
thereunder focusing on professional training and financial support for young lawyers and the regulation of bar council elections.
For example, bar councils should engage young lawyers in public interest cases and pay them fees from the funds of the bar
council. The tenure of elections at each level may be extended from one year to two years. There should be a direct election
to the Pakistan Bar Council (PBC) – like elections to the provincial bar councils. It would help reduce alleged corruption –
vote trading in the election of the highest regulatory body of lawyers. To implement existing provisions and pursue
appropriate amendments, lawyers should engage with bar councils, government, and parliament as a whole. Amendments in
Article 175A of the constitution, ‘Appointment of Judges to the Supreme Court, High Courts and the Federal Shariat Court’
and Article 177 ‘Appointment of Supreme Court Judges’ may be sought to increase transparency and merit in appointments.
The Judicial Commission of Pakistan should make a criterion for the appointment of judges through specific rules. An
amendment in Article 209 ‘Supreme Judicial Council’ should be pursued to remove judges on the ground of ‘incompetence’
and ‘judicial misconduct’ through a transparent procedure – open enquiry. In this regard, lawyers may insist on the publication
of the result of related proceedings. 'Incompetence' and 'judicial misconduct' must be defined more precisely and applied more
objectively. Bar councils need to analyse other justice systems and produce material on legal and judicial reforms here.

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 Collaborating with law schools and international lawyers’ bodies, and forging issue-based alliances with civil society can help
build the case for legal and judicial reforms in Pakistan. Keeping in mind their professional reputation and prospects, young
lawyers may be encouraged to support and also hold the bench and bar and government accountable for the performance of
our justice system. No nation can prosper without a strong justice system. Further, theme-specific seminars may be conducted
to cultivate broad support. Some members of the legal fraternity may oppose these reforms to maintain the status quo.
However, the majority is expected to appreciate the need for reform owing to their experience with elite capture,
discrimination and corruption in the profession. Finally, young lawyers may consider participating in bar politics – without
compromising professional duties – to support justice system reforms so that each member of the bar gets a fair opportunity of
hearing in independent courts. An interview by the enrollment committee of the PBC for the grant of licence for appearing
before the Supreme Court of Pakistan may be abolished. There is no such requirement even in our neighbouring country,
India. It would allow an opportunity for young lawyers to appear before the SC and will promote talent in the bar. It will also
reduce the alleged misuse of the authority for the grant of licence to procure the support to the elections of the Supreme
Court Bar Association of Pakistan. Bar councils need to prepare the legal fraternity to meet the challenges posed by the
fast-changing legal landscape. There is a dearth of lawyers in Pakistan who could advise on legal issues in the domain of
international law such as lawfare, cyberspace, international arbitration, etc. Briefly, bar politics on the above lines will upgrade
the legal profession and promote the independence of the judiciary. An enhanced focus on professional training will prepare
lawyers to advise our government on national legal issues and defend Pakistan at international forums effectively. Above all, it
will help deliver an expeditious and meritorious justice system to the people of Pakistan. (March 3, 2022, The News
International)
PAKISTAN GEO-ECONOMIC DREAM
Geo-economics is the new buzzword these days, thrown around rather loosely without quantifying its benefits, especially in a

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country like Pakistan which relies on a heavy diet of geopolitics and alliance tactics.
What has prompted this paradigm shift in national thinking? The answer lies in an altered international environment and its
impact on the regional security calculus. For far too long, South Asia has borne the brunt of ‘bloc politics’ of competitive
alliances and attendant conflicts. The focus on client-protege relations and regional conflicts have deprived South Asia of
realising its true economic potential, rueful development for a region whose economic output comprised 25 percent of the
global GDP in the 18th century. Many African countries witnessed what is called ‘the resource curse’ in the last century.
05 According to an analysis of 47 African economies by the International Food Security Institute (IFRI), the countries that were
rich in natural resources became dependent on foreign profiteers to earn cheap rents without diversifying their economies.
Pakistan has similarly become a victim of its geostrategic curse because its leadership prefers short-term geopolitical rents at the
cost of long-term economic development. The $264 billion Pakistani economy could have easily become a $1trillion
economy had the true potential of its trade, commerce and industrial productivity been realised through economic
partnerships and connectivity. Pakistan’s frontline status as an American ally in the cold war, anti-Soviet jihad, and
US-supported war on terror in Afghanistan had kept its eye off the ball of economic connectivity. America’s diminishing
interest in Pakistan’s role as a strategic partner in its South and Central Asian policies and alliance with India to guard its
residual strategic interests in the region forced Pakistan to look elsewhere for safeguarding its security interests. The strategic
retreat of the US from South Asia leaving its allies like India to counter the influence of its strategic competitor, China,
apparently forced policymakers in Pakistan to seriously rethink their national security and foreign policies. The international
environment witnessed the rise of China as the biggest national security threat. The hateful sentiments once reserved for the
Soviet Union were directed towards China and, by implication, its hapless allies. America’s new national security focus is
towards East Asia and the Indo-Pacific region to assuage the security paranoia of its strategic allies suchlike Taiwan, Australia,
Japan, South Korea and Singapore and a host of others being corralled into military-centric security alliances like the Quad and
AUKUS. A war-weary world community confronted with threats like climate change and food insecurity is naturally
gravitating towards the development and connectivity model of China, instead of the confrontation template peddled by the
US. It was no surprise to see that Pakistan’s policy planners unveiled a new national security model based on geo-economics.
It seems that Pakistani civil-military leadership realised the ephemeral nature of geo-strategic rents to embrace an
economic-centered policy, finally breaking away from the resource curse of geo-strategic rents. The next step in this transition
is quite challenging. Years of regional connectivity neglect and a tough Indian stance vis a vis Pakistan and Kashmiris puts the
South Asian economic renaissance in serious jeopardy. Regional economic integration leads towards better capability
development and diversification of industrial output, leading ultimately towards enhanced industrial and trade volumes
through the desired economies of scale (Hausmann and Hidalgo, 2010). India’s continued suppression of minorities and
annexation of illegally occupied portion of the disputed Jammu and Kashmir state is depriving South Asia of enjoying the fruit
of trade, connectivity and economic integration. At present, India has bilateral free trade agreements with Sri Lanka (1999),
Thailand (2004) and Singapore (2005). It is also negotiating such agreements with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations

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 (ASEAN), the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral and Technical Cooperation Free Trade Area (BIMSTEC). Despite
these initiatives, its record in regional integration is abysmally poor with deliberate attempts at weakening Saarc and the slow
burner treatment to the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA). If India had let go of its stubbornness, the East-West
Economic Corridor (EWEC) could have been created, linking India with Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia, and Iran
through land corridors, featuring railways, roads and special industrial and trade zones. Dr Ishrat Husain argues that India
comprises 75 percent of the South Asian population and 77 percent of its GDP, but its trade with South Asian nations is less
than five percent of its trade with the rest of the world. At present, Pakistan accounts for less than one percent of the total
Indian exports to the rest of the world. South Asia can reap optimal connectivity dividends if trade goods are transported in a
cost-effective and time-efficient manner, leveraging geographical advantages just as East Asian countries are garnering
maximum commercial dividends through better value chain integration with the Chinese economy. A sincere attempt was
made by Pakistan by revising the non-discriminatory market share in the South Asian Free Trade Area (Safta) in 2014 by
lowering tariffs to as low as five percent. Indians had promised that the new government would notify the proposed changes in
Safta, but nothing happened. Post the US withdrawal, Afghanistan offers both challenges and opportunities. One big
opportunity is the operationalisation of the East-West economic corridors comprising TAPI, CASA 1000, IPI and Trans
Afghan Rail Corridor. Interestingly, Afghanistan, China and the US are on board for the 573-km-long railway project. The
$5billion project is being actively pursued by Uzbekistan, Pakistan and Afghanistan, and promises to usher in a connectivity
renaissance linking landlocked Uzbekistan with Pakistan’s seaports, reducing by half the transportation cost and the time of
freight while enhancing the trade volume between Pakistan and Central Asia by 60 percent. Pakistan sits atop a goldmine of
trade, industry and natural resources, provided it fully leverages its geographical location. CPEC can ideally complement the
EWEC, making Pakistan a true connectivity hub and strategic trade bridge between South and Central Asia. It is time to pull
all stops to realise that geo-economic dream. (March 1, 2022, The News International)

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REFORMS: INSTITUTIONAL IMPEDIMENTS
Pakistan excels among many other developing countries in producing first-rate diagnostic studies (what is wrong with us?) ,
strategies, five-year and annual plans, reports but our implementation record is one of the worst. This is one of the main
reasons as to why Pakistan’s economic structure has remained unaltered, growth has been characterised by booms and busts
and human development indicators have stuck stagnant. A question that therefore arises but remains unaddressed or partially
06 answered is: why do reforms that everybody realises are warranted for the good of the country do not take place despite the
recommendations made by so many commissions, committees, task forces , think tanks and research institutes? The scope of
this article is limited to the reforms of the civil services and the organisational restructuring of the executive branch of the state
and is a reflection of my own experience over last decade or so. Other scholars and practitioners are likely to come up with
different sets of constraining factors. I admit that in the absence of judicial reforms that affect rule of law, enforcement of
contracts, adjudication of disputes, legislative reforms that reinforce the capabilities of parliament and the assemblies to exercise
oversight on the executive and improve the quality and extent of legislation and electoral reforms that allow a much better
process of choosing the elected representatives the impact of the reform in one organ of the state is likely to remain marginal.
Let me also admit that the word ‘reform’ has so often been used or misused that it has almost become a platitude. As it is
interpreted through the narrow lens of individuals and groups, it carries different connotations for different people. As long as
its consequences do not affect me, I am a big supporter of reforms but the minute my own interests or that of the group to
which I belong are hurt I become a fierce, subtle or covert opponent of those reforms. This behavourial asymmetry and lack of
broad acceptance of the purpose, form, substance and timing of the reforms poses a difficult impediment. A number of
observers have argued that, unless the respective roles of government, markets and civil society are clearly demarcated and
defined and agreed, it is premature to come up with any proposals for the reform of the executive branch. As this is a highly
controversial and emotive issue – neoliberalism and market-driven versus interventionist and government-driven – we will
continue to debate this endlessly and stand on the same spot just jogging without making any forward movement. So the
premise which I take is that this binary construct is a strawman –artificial and outdated, and for practical purposes, no longer
valid. It is the combination of an effective and capable government and well functioning competitive markets that has led to
rapid growth with equity. Empirical evidence in support of this proposition in our own continent – starting from Japan, the
Four Tigers (Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore) to the Asean countries (Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines,
Vietnam) and in the last three decades China – is quite overwhelming. Markets are susceptible to rigging by powerful
private-sector players for their parochial advantage in the absence of strong government institutions. The task of the
government is to dismantle monopolies, oligarchies, mafias, cartels and concentration of market power that are highly
pernicious for general economic welfare – and to distribute the economic gains equitably and broadly. At the same time, the
government can be hijacked by the same powerful vested interests in collusion with politicians and bureaucrats if the
government is allowed unfettered discretion in production, distribution and exchange of goods and services. Rent-seeking

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 rather than innovation and productivity becomes the sole pursuit for getting rich at the expense of the majority of the
population. Instead of taxing these rents, the government, in order to survive, becomes dependent on ‘outsiders’, turning the
country into a rentier state losing full control of economic sovereignty. This elitist model which has been practised in Pakistan
for the last 75 years has only brought grief and not relief to its citizens and needs to be replaced by the shared growth model in
which the benefits of growth are widely dispersed. It therefore follows that the purpose of the reforms is to lay down the
foundations for an effective and capable government that is able to promote welfare of the majority of the population, ensure
that the markets for products and factors are competitive and the entrepreneurial energies of the private sector are unshackled
to become more efficient and productive and civil society organisations are provided an enabling environment to contribute to
social development. The gap between ‘what is today’ and ‘what ought to be in the future’ is to be bridged by these reforms.
Let us now turn to the main question posed in the beginning: why do we have such a dismal record of implementation of
reforms? Besides the behavourial asymmetry and lack of broad consensus on the contours of these reforms, there are several
other compelling reasons which are analysed in the following paragraphs: First is design flaw: one of the instruments for
achieving the stated purpose is how best to deliver basic public goods and services to the citizens in a cost-effective and
efficient manner. The natural corollary from this is that the reforms should be geared at the local level as that is where the
interaction between the citizen and the government functionary takes place. Whether it is security, law and order, education
for the kids, healthcare for the family, drinking water and sewerage, sanitation and cleanliness of the streets and
neighbourhoods, roads and pavements, public transport, streetlights, parks and amenities, mandis and market spaces, pursuit of
justice and adjudication of disputes – all these functions are performed at the local level not in provincial capitals. Local
governments have been disempowered and deprived of the necessary resources to carry out their functions. The face of the
government at the local level is ugly and it is unable to deliver because administrative and legal powers are concentrated and
financial resources are centralised at the provincial level. The level of dissatisfaction of an ordinary citizen who has no
connections or ability to pay has become heightened as his/her day-to-day routine life has become an ordeal. This leads to

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resentment among people regarding those in power at the federal and provincial levels. There is little realisation by successive
leaders that unless they set up an empowered and well-resourced local government system with devolution of powers ,
decentralisation of fiscal resources, and decentralisation of authority they would continue to face the wrath of the people. A
country of 220 million people with highly diverse and differentiated factor endowments and socio-economic milieu cannot be
run from the federal or provincial headquarters. The true spirit of the 18th Amendment will be realised when the devolution
to the local governments is completed. Studies from across countries and across Pakistan show that the resource allocation is
more efficient, responsiveness to citizens’ needs is swift, and resource mobilisation efforts are successful when people see that
07 tangible results are accruing to them and their communities.
An attempt was made by the National Commission for Government Reforms (NCGR) to present a comprehensive package
that proposed a strong district government system with specific focus on education, health and police. But the report could not
be implemented due to the change in government. Subsequent governments did realise the need but remained preoccupied
with other pressing matters. This time (2018-21), the focus was only on the federal government as the provincial governments
plainly told us that after the 18th Amendment the federal government (although all the four provincial chief secretaries were
members of the task forces that formulated the reforms) has no business in imposing the reforms, and they would design and
deliver these themselves based on their peculiar conditions rather than follow the recommendations of the federal government
(that has not happened so far). The recent decisions by the Supreme Court give some glimmer of hope that a strong local
government system would emerge in the coming years – although one of the most desirable models enacted by the Punjab
Assembly in 2019 has been diluted by the recent ordinance of 2021. It is hoped that legislators will insist on a reversion to the
2019 law and reject the 2021 ordinance under consideration. The concept of the All-Pakistan Services under the constitution
under which members of the Pakistan Administrative services (PAS) and the Police Service of Pakistan (PSP) were required to
serve both at the federal and provincial levels have been challenged by provincial civil servants in the court. They have held
public rallies and demanded that the chief secretaries and the IG police should be appointed by the provincial governments and
not the federal government. Quite surprisingly, this issue has been raised when one of their demands to increase their quota in
Grades 17-22 positions in the provincial governments was increased under the reform of cadre rules by reallocation of 650
posts from the PAS to the provincial civil services. The provision of inducting PCS and PMS officers into the PAS through a
competitive examination conducted by the Federal Public Service Commission was also revived. They could therefore occupy
higher positions in the federal government and could reach the top. This tension has not allowed much headway in the
administrative reforms at the provincial level where they are badly needed to reduce the size and reallocate staff to tehsils,
municipal bodies and districts . Political dynamic and incentives: There is a widely held misconception that technocrats are
best suited to bring about reforms. Technocrats can carry out background technical work, hold consultations with stakeholders
and listen to their views and suggestions and incorporate them in the design – but their acceptance and execution has to be
politically driven as they entail difficult choices and trade-offs. These choices cannot be made by unelected technocrats as it is
only the elected representatives who have to face the consequences before the electorate. The crucial stages after the design are

Compiled & Edited by Aamir Mahar — CSS Exam Desk

 debating and discussing the proposals in the party and the cabinet, making compromises. Reaching consensus, messaging and
carrying out the people along can only be tackled by the elected representatives. There is a possibility that some of the
proposals prepared by the technocrats may be diluted or rejected outright. To have a long-lasting impact these have to be
presented before the legislature for their consideration and approval on a cross-party basis. This process of negotiation,
persuasion, give and take can only move forward if there is no serious confrontation or adversarial relations between the party
in power and the opposition. The recent uproar on the SBP governance and autonomy bill could have been avoided if the
two parties had sat down and dispassionately and coolly come to a mutual understanding allaying some of the genuine
misapprehensions. This breakdown in communication has done a lot of damage and made the bill highly controversial and
subject to reversal in the future. Under these circumstances, reforms are not taken seriously. Assuming that in a more sobering
environment the law is enacted after dialogue between the movers and the opposition, there may be further deviations from
the original script and the force multiplier of the reforms may not be that powerful. This cannot be criticised as this is the
legitimate prerogative of the legislators. The next hurdle is to face the resistance of those who believe in the status quo ante as
their interests are threatened. If an SOE that has accumulated billions of rupees in losses can be leased out to a private operator
who guarantees decent returns to the government, provided all the liabilities are taken off the books and the existing staff on
the payroll is given severance packages, what do you think the reaction to this move would be? The workers would come out
on the streets, approach the media and the opposition parties for their support. It is now the political calculus of the leader and
the party in power whether to yield to these pressure tactics, roll back or reverse the actions taken or stick to them despite this
resistance or modify them. This situation does provoke some members of the coalition government to turn their backs and
argue that ‘we are conceding political space to our opponents for nothing and should postpone the transaction’. In case the
prime minister and the cabinet persist with the tough decision and are not persuaded to reverse it, the workers would file a suit
in the court and obtain a stay order that has no time limit. The SOE would continue to incur losses while the workers get
their pays, perks and privileges unhindered. What would be the reaction of prospective investors in this and future such

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transactions? They would quit in the belief that the same cycle would repeat itself and they would desist from showing any
interest as the country loses credibility and billions in financial losses. Pakistan’s history is replete with such instances – the most
glaring being that of Pakistan Steel Mills which has been shut down since 2015; the country is importing steel and scrap,
incurring scarce foreign exchange with supply disruption affecting our downstream industry whose input costs have gone up
while the government is financing the salaries, pensions and other expenses out of taxpayers’ money. In many cases, the
judiciary itself has initiated suo-motu action keeping the reforms in abeyance for a long time. What is more distressing is the
shifting postures of the political parties. When party X in power wants to go ahead with such reforms there is agitation and stiff
08 resistance by party Y but when the same party comes to power the roles are reversed. If both are convinced that this is good
for the larger interest of the country then point-scoring and gaining popularity among a small group have heavy costs for the
economy . The above behavourial pattern that is displayed by all political parties has a rationale that is quite understandable
and has to do with the present first-past-the-post plurality voting system under which the candidate who wins the most votes
in each constituency is elected.
The reason for the kind of political behaviour exhibited by elected representatives has to do with the incentive structure under
the present voting system. MNAs and MPAs owe their election to constituency politics. They are obligated to take actions
which keep their constituents pleased and their opponents subdued. That means that prices of essential commodities, tariffs
charged for electricity, gas, water, railways are frozen and controlled through administrative means (whatever the government
has to cough up to bear the subsidies involved) so that people don’t complain about rising prices. They would like the
government to create new jobs to take care of the young men and women in their constituencies who are seeking
employment even if such jobs are not needed by the organisations concerned. Postings and transfers of key officials –
particularly SHOs, patwaris, irrigation SDOs, schoolteachers in their areas – ought to be done at their recommendations so
that these officials can oblige the elected person. Development funds in their areas must be allocated at their discretion for the
schemes they choose. These actions enhance their political prospects for winning the elections. The principles of good
governance – a neutral, impartial, objective – administration that would benefit all and sundry without any parochial or
partisan considerations and form the core of the reforms are thus in conflict with the imperatives of the constituency politics.
Whether the considerations that the government deficits keep on rising and the country’s debt stock becomes unbearable
because of subsidies, tariff freezes, wasteful expenditure, expansion of government payroll and pensions are of great concern to
the party leadership but of very little consequence to constituency-driven politicians. Therefore, one does not find many
champions of reforms except a few enlightened senators and members. There is a lack of congruence between the collective
national interests and the individual interests arising out of perverse incentives inherent in the existing system of elections. A
large number of civil servants have become risk averse in taking or implementing decisions even if these have come from the
highest quarters. Their fear of NAB, FIA, the judiciary and audit has become so deeply ingrained that they are not willing to
dispose of the files on their own unless they have consulted all the relevant ministries and agencies, and everyone has ticked off.
It is pertinent to note that within a ministry the file has to be initiated by the section officer (SO) and has to move five steps up

Compiled & Edited by Aamir Mahar — CSS Exam Desk

 in the hierarchy and then the same way downwards before the SO puts up the draft for approval. This exercise is repeated in
every ministry which is to be consulted. Not only is it highly inefficient and time consuming, some of the premises upon
which the original decisions were made become obsolete with the passage of time. A new summary has to be prepared,
circulated among all the relevant ministries, their comments and queries are answered or kicked back to other agencies, and
data is collected from various sources. This summary is then submitted to the relevant committee of the cabinet, in some cases
pertaining to energy and privatisation to more than one committee. The recommendations of the cabinet committee have
then to find a place in the heavy agenda of the cabinet. In those cases where the cabinet does not endorse the committee’s
recommendations and specific observations are made the process has to start ab initio. Reform proposals are also processed the
same way as permitted under the existing Rules of Business. The argument that the existing system and rules are in fact to be
dismantled and disrupted through these reforms and these should not be treated at par with the ongoing business does not
attract much traction. Exceptions to rules are considered anathema because it may land them in trouble subsequently even
after they have retired. This inability to penetrate the barriers imposed by the existing rules is one of the other reasons for the
slow uptake of reforms or maintenance of the status quo. Some civil servants who are put under pressure to deliver overtly
acquiesce to accepting the directives and go through the motion as if they are abiding by the decisions taken but they would
point out some legal or procedural lacuna or loopholes and reopen the matter which has already been settled at the highest
echelon of decision-making. Alternatively, their drafting of notifications, SROS, and rules is so full of ambiguities deliberately
or inadvertently that these are challenged in the courts of law and are thrown out of the books. The process has to start once
again. In one such case where the Islamabad high Court upheld the Directory Retirement Rules under which those with an
unsatisfactory service track record were to be compulsorily retired upon completion of twenty years of service after observing
due process the spade work has hardly been done after a lapse of almost two years. Those senior civil servants in positions of
authority to initiate the proceedings are reluctant to take the wrath of their colleagues who are likely to be adversely affected
and therefore they wait for their transfer or retirement. They argue that civil servants are treated shabbily and have not been

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given protection by successive governments. So why should they lose the camaraderie of their friends and colleagues and
become ostracized socially for the sake of these ruling classes. The reason a majority of civil servants get outstanding and
excellent performance reports is that they have a tendency to appease their subordinates and not take the risk of becoming
unpopular among their colleagues. Many civil servants with excellent reports do not fare well (with some exceptions, of course)
when they attend the training institutions where the evaluation is more structured, collective and rigorous. A line of least
resistance is followed The new performance management system for civil servants, which would be objective based with key
performance indicators, has not yet been put in place – although the prime minister has signed performance agreements with
09 the ministers and evaluation under these agreements has been completed. The good news is that the promotion rules upheld
also by Islamabad High Court are being followed and two Central Selection Boards held for promotion to Grades 20 and 21
have made their decisions based on the transparent criteria of merit rather than seniority. The high-powered selection board
headed by the prime minister has also followed the merit-based promotion policy for Grade 22. There are many other reasons
that impede the implementation of reforms but in my mind the problem of time inconsistency looms large. Every reform
creates losers and winners. The losers are well organised and clearly visible, while the gains will accrue sometime in the future
and diffused throughout the economy. The losers can mobilise public support in their favour but as the winners have not yet
emerged there is nobody to champion their cause. The costs are therefore borne by the political party that undertakes the
reforms upfront, but the gains will be captured by their opponents or some other unknown political configuration in the
future. This asymmetry between the timing of losses and gains and accrual of costs and benefits has remained a major hurdle in
successful implementation of reforms along with the design flaw, political incentive structure and civil servants’ attitudes.
(Ishrat Husain is the author of 'Governing the ungovernable'. Jan - Feb, 2022, The News International)

PAKISTAN’S ENERGY EFFICIENCY

The idea that ‘energy conserved is better and cheaper than energy produced or purchased’ has proven to be true, especially
due to rising energy prices, supply uncertainties and climate change effects. In the West, the movement for energy
conservation, efficiency, self-reliance and renewable energy started in the backdrop of the 1973 oil crisis. Since then,
remarkable changes have occurred in the energy sector. Earlier, energy intensity – energy elasticity of the GDP – used to be
more than one which means that to increase the GDP by one percent, an 1-1.5 percent increase in energy supply or
consumption was required. Today, in most countries, this index is 0.5, and, in some economies, it is even negative. This
means that the growth rate in energy conservation and efficiency is faster than the growth rate of the economy. But it is not
true for developing countries like Pakistan due to a variety of factors, including poverty, low education and technology. The
sensitivity of the issue, however, is increasing among government policies and the people. Energy is used in all parts of human
life. A wide variety of sectors, users, producers and traders are involved and directly affected by the energy sector. There are,
however, some limited number of areas which consume the bulk of energy, which makes the job of achieving energy

Compiled & Edited by Aamir Mahar — CSS Exam Desk

 conservation and efficiency relatively easier. Due to market and trade reasons – and not any indigenous effort, many
improvements have taken place, especially in imported items. Today’s cars are more than four times fuel efficient than those of
the 1980s. And with electric vehicles (EVs), efficiency is likely to increase even more. The revolution in the lighting sector
came through LEDs. Also, the latest computer and TV screens are many times more efficient than their previous models. Split
ACs are being widely used which are generally more efficient than window ACs as the former is being used for both cooling
and heating purposes. Using ACs as heaters is much more efficient than the use of classic resistance heaters. Unfortunately, in
this area, only the rich have switched while the poor do not have either the house or the money to benefit from it. Home
electrical appliances are more efficient today, but they still have room for improvement. Unfortunately, the building sector is
the most energy inefficient sector, and not much has been done in this respect. Conservation has two sides – energy-efficient
appliances and user-side efficiency. There is no use of installing energy-efficient ACs in a poorly built house with poor
insulation. The building sector has a large share of 20 percent in energy consumption. In the US, the housing sector consumes
40 percent of the country’s total energy consumption. Due to poverty and shanty houses, we may not have such a high share.
There is a stock of 20 million houses, half of which are ‘pucca’ houses. There are 35 million electric consumers and seven
million gas connections. New electricity connections per year average at 1.5 million – these figures give an idea of waste or
conservation potential. However, it may be noted that gas consumption in Pakistan increases in the winter largely due to
heating and hot water requirements. And in the summer, electricity requirements peak due to cooling requirements provided
by ACs and fans. Water consumption increases in the summer as well, leading to an increase in energy use in water pumping.
This brings motor and pump energy efficiency issues to the fore. There are some voluntary energy conservation labels and
schemes like Leadership in Energy and Environment Development (LEED). The application of the LEED criterion has led to
some remarkable effects of energy savings in commercial buildings – up to 50 percent savings (more than 275,000 kWh per
year). Voluntary participation may be more effective than legal approaches which may eventually come in the long run.
Although for some stubborn customers, a carrot-and-stick approach may also work. Market-based approaches also succeed in

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such cases. Space cooling and space and water heating are the most energy-consuming and costly processes, more in terms of
operating (energy) cost than in terms of capital expenditure. Both elite and middle classes indulge in wasteful investments in it.
Most energy theft used – and even continues – to be due to the use of ACs, gas heaters and water geysers. Investment in
energy conservation is definitely cheaper than the cost of energy consumed otherwise. The culprit in high energy
consumption is lack of insulation in our homes and commercial buildings. In the 19th century, in this part of the world,
houses used to have energy conservation features like decent heights, ventilation systems and energy-insulating plasters. Roof
insulation technology and materials are relatively widely available. A cheaper option – ‘white colouring of the roof’ – has also
10 found wider acceptance. Roof insulation can be done in existing houses, offering a large potential for further savings. Wider
use and the availability of better materials can make a difference. Wall insulation is a rather difficult issue for existing buildings.
However, in new construction, it is neither costly nor difficult to insulate walls. Normally, two walls are built with a cavity of
three to four inches. This is required in only outer walls. There are other techniques of insulated plasters or installing insulated
panels inside. The installation of insulated panels inside may be feasible in existing houses. In the US, the payback of cavity
wall insulation is about three years. In Pakistan, with costly energy and lower construction cost, the payback period may be
even less. The second biggest loss of energy is through glass windows, in both winter and summer. The larger the house, the
larger the windows. Glazed windows have become a norm in new buildings and refurbished homes in the West. These
windows can be installed in both new and existing houses. Only outer windows have to be glazed. In these glass windows,
inert gas like helium is filled to decrease heat transfer. The supply industry has developed this item but is restricted due to a low
demand. In the gas sector, solar water heaters (SWH) offer a great opportunity for energy conservation. They hardly consume
any roof space as opposed to a solar PV system. The existing gas heaters and geysers are energy inefficient and are responsible
for high gas bills. Gas heaters can be replaced by split ACs which offer both heating and cooling functions. For rural areas,
biogas and gasifier stoves are a cheap solution and have plenty of scope. Electric motors used in water pumps, fans, compressors
and all kinds of industrial machinery are another important item. Most of their demand comes from water pumps of up to one
kW capacity. There are around four hundred motor manufacturers mostly in the informal sector and are situated in
Gujranwala. About 14 million motors are installed in the country, which is expected to increase to 25 million units by 2030.
In terms of MW, 70 percent of the motor demand may be coming from large motors of five KW and more. However, even in
the industrial sector, motor efficiency averages around 50-55 percent due to a variety of reasons which are not related to only
motor quality, but there are operations and maintenance issues as well. Optimum efficiency requirements exceed 75 percent.
New products offer huge potential for boosting energy conservation and efficiency, and both large- and small-scale industries
require technical input in this regard. However, in the large motor sector, industrial users need assistance. In the case of small
motors, motor manufacturers need assistance. Thus, two different approaches are required to help improve the current
situation.

Compiled & Edited by Aamir Mahar — CSS Exam Desk

 In the first part of the article, we discussed how innovation in products is playing a major role in energy conservation.
Innovation and upgrades in home appliances are also playing a key role in energy efficiency.
In Pakistan, the market for kitchen equipment like food processors, fridges and freezers has expanded tremendously in recent
years – around one to 1.5 million units of refrigerators are sold annually. If local producers work on such upgrades, there
would be a tremendous energy conservation and efficiency improvement opportunity. The involvement of producers is likely
to result in a lot of improvements in terms of energy conservation. The National Energy Efficiency and Conservation
Authority (NEECA) has recommended adding energy performance labels on products. It is hoped consumers’ awareness will
create demand for energy-efficient equipment as consumers usually prefer affordable products and are unaware of energy issues.
General industrial practices need a lot of attention and improvements. Energy efficiency can affect both competitiveness and
partner and buyer industries. Most Pakistani industrialists are more inclined towards seeking incentives and low energy tariffs
but are less sensitive to energy conservation and efficiency issues. Both awareness and technical know-how are required for
dealing with this issue. Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) can provide technical assistance to industrialists. NEECA has
released the first draft of an energy conservation policy – the National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Programme
(NEECP) – for the review and comments of stakeholders. The subject of energy efficiency and conservation is not new in
Pakistan. NEECA’s precursor Enercon was formed in 1987 and received technical support and grant financing from USAID.
An energy conservation policy was presented in 2006. Some reports were drafted and the required documentation work was
done, but the policy couldn’t prove to be fruitful. Subsequently, the National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Act was
passed in 2016 as a result of which NEECA was established. The institution is yet to meet its requirement of the workforce. It
has, however, done some foundation work like the preparation of a policy document and the development of some useful
standards and a labelling scheme. There seems to be a lot of work in progress that has yet to come under public domain.
Lessons should be learnt from past mistakes. NEECA should find out what went wrong in earlier efforts and what should not

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be repeated. The NEECP draft seems a good policy. Almost nothing has been left out; this, surprisingly, has invited criticism
of some credible experts and institutions. The policy’s defenders may argue that a foundation policy document has to be
comprehensive, but due to bad experiences of the past, people now want coherent targets. There is no doubt that the policy
seems ambitious as well, but it needs to be prioritised. The first part of this article identified the sectors that needed innovation.
The building sector, electric motor and pump manufacturing units, industrial systems, and household electrical equipment
manufacturing units are a few areas which are likely to achieve the energy conservation and efficiency targets if the authorities
prioritise them. Transport and power systems undertake their development activities and are determined by international
11 suppliers and companies. The power sector is big enough to undertake its conservation and efficiency projects. Electric
vehicles are far away, and delving into it from the point of view of energy conservation may not be either a priority or within
the capabilities of the local systems. There is a strategic plan (2020-2023) which is unnecessarily too big for the available period.
It may be good enough for 10 years. We are in the mid-period of the plan, and the failures are already evident. Even though
funds are available, under climate agendas and emergencies, for the execution of the plan, only money isn’t required. The
country needs a more concrete and prioritised plan which is accepted by experienced stakeholders. The recently announced
draft has the following items on its agenda: minimum energy performance standards, energy performance labelling schemes,
energy information clearing houses, energy audit, technical services and support, and financing policy support. However, the
draft hasn’t talked about one important item – the development of model and pilot facilities. For example, model energy
efficient buildings in all major towns may go a long way in developing the understanding of their benefits and the processes
required. These houses can be installed with insulated walls and roofs, glazed windows, solar PV systems, water heaters and
other energy efficient devices to demonstrate what a ‘model house’ is. The most useful work yet carried out by NEECA is the
development of an energy efficiency labelling scheme. Energy efficiency labels give ample guidance to consumers/buyers to
compare a product’s prices to its energy consumption levels – most household appliances are under NEECA’s labelling scheme.
Fan manufacturing units are at the advanced stage of the implementation of the policy. It is hoped that this step would create
market pressure for energy efficiency. As a result, energy products and producers may end up getting ‘market preference’ in
terms of better prices and market share in the medium- to long-term. In energy efficiency businesses, consumer awareness is a
major issue. Ordinary citizens form to be the main actor. Their decisions and perceptions usually create market pressures.
Industrial and business customers and users may have the resources and skills to acquire knowledge and information. Thus,
communication and extension activities should form a major part of the institutional conservation efforts. Since the media can
play an effective role in this regard, it should receive sufficient budgetary resources. NEECA will continue to suffer from an
institutional mismatch as it is part of the power division. Its conservation agenda seems to be more focused on the electrical
side. But since the power division comes under the Ministry of Energy, there will be a few bottlenecks. It is hoped this policy
succeeds in achieving its targets as energy- and climate-related challenges are mounting. (Syed Akhtar Ali is a former member
of the Energy Planning Commission and author of ‘Pakistan’s Energy Issues: Success and Challenges’. Feb, 2022, The News
International)

Compiled & Edited by Aamir Mahar — CSS Exam Desk

 SAVING PAKISTAN’S HIGHER EDUCATION
As the PTI-led government has made a joke of nearly everything, education is no exception. It is trying to do everything in
education that it should not be doing at all. From the farce of the so-called Single National Curriculum (SNC) to a mockery
of higher education, the government is proverbially leaving no stone unturned to alter the shape of education in the country –
in an arrogant and undesirable manner. The focus of this column is higher education, so let’s begin by putting some
perspective to it. In the 21st century, the story begins with the usurper General Pervez Musharraf who had toppled an elected
government in 1999 and appointed himself chief executive of Pakistan. This was a unique and unheard -of designation for a
military dictator who had derived his power from the barrel of a gun. Soon he kicked out the elected president of the country
too and elevated himself to the office of the president of Pakistan. He was following in the footsteps of generals Ayub Khan,
Yahaya Khan, and Ziaul Haq. Like his predecessors, he had no shortage of turncoat politicians and ‘technocrats’ at his disposal.
One of them was a scientist of sorts and an ardent fan of authoritarian regimes. He clung to the dispensation which was a
hotchpotch of all those who could give a semblance of competence to it. Each ‘expert’ was trying to prove his/her degree of
incompetence to the good general who soon started wallowing in dollars after the 9/11 attacks in the US. Our scientist
gathered some likeminded people who embarked on a journey to transform higher education in the country. These people
were mostly from the private sector and some had even established or managed educational institutions that sold education and
charged hefty fees. They presented the idea to replace the good old University Grants Commission (UGC) by a newly minted
Higher Education Commission (HEC). When you use concepts that fit well within a neoliberal economy – or in fact promote
it – institutions such as the World Bank fall in love with you. Words such as ‘merit-based’, ‘resource mobilisation’,
‘self-finance’, ‘tenure-track’ and many others sound fairly sweet to donors. Established in 2002, the HEC did manage to attract
a lot of money. With billions flowing in and out, countless research grants were awarded to competent and not so competent
‘lead investigators’ – a term used for someone who can claim to be a senior researcher. There were centres and departments at

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universities vying for grants – many of which landed in favourite hands. There were lax accountability mechanisms – in some
cases not at all – that facilitated a generous use of funds with nearly no accountability. Many universities were happy that at
least there were more funds to spend – or burn in the donor terminology. The old UGC had never seen such a bonanza, so
nobody missed it much. The nine-year dictatorship spawned a plethora of dictators at middle and lower levels. The HEC itself
became a small authoritarian regime, which was big and powerful enough to consume and dispense hundreds of billions at the
discretion of the chairman. Audits were taken care of by the chief accounting officer who was mostly the executive director
picked by the HEC chairman and approved by a compliant commission. The first decade of the HEC drew glowing tributes
12 from the donors, including the World Bank. A well-orchestrated campaign produced international and national reports
praising the HEC as a top-class body that had worked wonders in the higher education sector of Pakistan. As thousands of
PhDs were ‘produced’ – or rather churned out on an assembly line – donors went almost crazy with the miracle in the making.
Paper publications multiplied as dozens turned into hundreds and that into thousands in a short span of time. Some great
scientists of Pakistan published papers at a dizzying speed and boasted CVs that looked like booklets. There were some good
things too. For example, new universities and campuses mushroomed in places where higher education was earlier not
available. Generous scholarships became available to selected faculty members and students to pursue doctoral degrees abroad.
Many of these never returned after claiming huge fees and sustenance allowances for years. Faculty members who returned
found themselves under pressure to publish more papers. Those without a job and a fresh PhD kept looking for jobs and
ended up moving abroad or being underemployed. This kept going on till a new HEC chairman Javaid Leghari took charge.
He proved to be a much better leader and thinker and tried to rectify many of the problems the HEC was facing. He
developed new policies and procedures and was less fond of autocratic methods in education. Favouritism was considerably
reduced, and he dealt with higher education institution in a more even-handed manner. Leghari’s focus was more on quality
than quantity and his efforts bore fruit and the HEC became a better place with academics from all over Pakistan benefitting
from it rather than some favourite centres and departments. The old guards were not happy and missed the good old days of
the 2000s. Come 2010, and the landmark 18th Amendment devolves education at all levels to provinces. From pre-primary to
higher education and from curriculum development to implementation – all came under provincial domains. This was a most
progressive and appreciable step by the PPP government which managed to respond to the demands of the provinces and
increased their autonomy to a certain level. Now the old guards and pro-centralisation pundits sprung to action and launched a
campaign to backtrack the 18th Amendment. There were articles in newspapers against the 18th Amendment and in favour of
retaining higher education at the federal level. Justice Iftikhar Chaudhary after his restoration was opposing nearly everything
the PPP government was doing. He delivered many verdicts that infringed upon the executive authority and ultimately
incurred huge losses to the public exchequer. In his zeal, he declared that the HEC would continue to function but there was
no bar for provinces to establish their own provincial higher education commissions (PHECS). Since all the public money for
higher education was still channeled through the HEC, the provincial ones found themselves out of resources. There was a
need to devise a mechanism through the Council of Common Interests (CCI) and National Finance Commission (NFC) to
divert the money for higher education to the provinces, but that could never happen. After Dr Javaid Leghari left the HEC,

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 once again it faced one crisis after another. There were multiple cases of plagiarism and a rapid growth in the number of
university campuses – many of them in bungalows – with hardly any facilities or faculty to match the name of a university.
The standard of higher education deteriorated considerably as the number of PhDs and publications spiraled in universities.
This was the background under which the PML-N government in 2018 managed to hire a highly competent economist,
educationist, and scholar Dr Tariq Banuri who had a blazing track record of professional achievements. He was settled in the
US for a long time and had a wide exposure to the higher education system there. His selection to the post of HEC chairman
was perhaps the best news for higher education in the country in many years.
Why would a Pakistani settled in the US for as long as an academic and scholar come back to his country to lead its Higher
Education Commission? Such people have already earned a decent amount of money and prestige in their career and there is
hardly anything else they can aspire for. Dr Tariq Banuri won his position as chairman of the HEC in 2018 after a tough
competition. His appointment was entirely transparent and above board. He assumed charge in May 2018 with hopes that the
higher education sector in the country would come out of its morass. Banuri was clear about the challenges the HEC was
facing, and he knew what path to take. He embarked upon a journey to transform higher education in the country and take it
to a higher level where it could produce some solid results. The first was the challenge of the deteriorating quality of PhD
degrees. In the past 20 years, there have been hundreds of cases of plagiarism and thousands of PhD degrees have been
awarded. Not all of these degrees had the standard to match a doctoral qualification; but there was a race among universities to
award as many PhDs as possible in a short span of time. When the HEC under the new leadership tried to prevent fraudulent
behaviour and attempted to improve lax monitoring, all hell broke loose. Soon there was a new PTI government in power
and the old guards reemerged with their Musharraf-era dreams to reoccupy lucrative and powerful positions. The new
government had plenty of common traits with dictatorships of yore. A longing for authoritarianism was evident from the word
go and the same mantra of change and reform once again circulated without much thought and planning. Education also

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became a victim of this adventurism. While Dr Banuri was trying to improve standards, he had to look at what had happened
in the past. A thorough audit was required to see where huge funding had gone. Any thorough audit of grants would have
disclosed the real nature of mismanagement and loss of investment. This was not acceptable and even within the HEC there
were elements that had to protect the past, no matter how disgusting it was. The old guards were active in writing more and
more papers and articles in newspapers. A sense of nostalgia was being created for a golden past when strongmen ruled the
roost without any accountability to parliament or anyone for that matter. If not a military dictator, a strong president would do.
Dr Banuri had to face an onslaught of government machinery and all those who had benefited from the system that had
13 favoured a selected few. It was evident that there was little to show from the long list of research grants that had been doled
out to certain centres and departments without much accountability. All those claims by blue-eyed academics and institutes
that gobbled up billions were hollow. In the name of improving science and technology, a facade had been constructed that
had no intellectual foundations apart from shimmering buildings and clocks of glazed tiles. Had there been any credible
discoveries and inventions, there would have been some impact on our exports, or at least on productivity in the country.
With hundreds of billions spent, there should have been even some trace of social benefits – none. Dr Banori found that the
real reason behind all this was the poor design of the whole HEC mechanism which encouraged rent-seeking behaviour.
There was a near-complete absence of monitoring and evaluation. He tried to introduce one, and that was not acceptable to
the government and to the old guards who had managed to sneak in with old promises of bringing about a scientific and
technological revolution in the country. Dr Banuri also started a number of programmes to enhance the quality of the faculty.
Most of the previous programmes were poorly designed and improperly executed. Just to cite one example, take the infamous
foreign faculty hiring programme which was launched in the 2000s and consumed a lot of resources without producing any
desired results. Most of those hired turned out to be those who could reciprocate with similar favours such as invitations to
foreign countries, fully-funded trips and inclusion of names in papers. Another example is the increasingly controversial tenure
track system which did more harm than benefit the faculty. The weaknesses of the underlying system were not easy to
eradicate, and the new chairman was facing stiff resistance. Most of all, non-transparent evaluation systems needed rectification,
but those who benefitted from it were not for changing it. Since the inception of the HEC there has been so much stress on
‘research’ that the faculty ended up neglecting their teaching responsibilities. This produced a lot of cosmetic research at the
cost of good teaching that in turn harmed the quality of student learning at universities – and now a large number of
poor-quality research journals galore. The HEC and its officials had become fond of interfering in universities and there were
no clear rules to govern this interference. An absence of such rules harms good governance and when Dr Banuri tried to
develop new rules, there was stiff opposition. Ideally there should be no ad-hoc interference and all management should be
transparent, but that is not acceptable to those benefiting from a lack of transparency. There was a need for coherent policies to
replace the fragmented ones that were in use. The HEC hierarchy itself has been manipulative and this manipulation worked
at various levels. All the changes that were suggested were an anathema to the PTI government and to the old guard. So, they
struck in March 2021 and removed the chairman who was to complete his term in May 2022. The step was illegal and
unconstitutional so the government enacted a law to reduce the term of the chairman from four to just two years. Dr Banuri

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 went to the court, which restored him. The government then used the commission to transfer chairman’s power to the acting
executive director who is a retired bureaucrat. The four-year term of the chairman is anyway coming to a close in May 2022,
but his one year was wasted by the government. He deserves a fresh appointment for a new four-year term as the government
is simply unable to manage higher education in this manner. There has not been any regular ED for the past three and half
years now, and ad-hoc arrangements have done tremendous harm to higher education in the country. (Feb, 2022, The News
International)

THE CONTOURS OF EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES AND FUTURE WARFARE

East Asia has never produced so much hard power and wealth in its history, but, at the same time, its ability to harness these
attributes to stabilise world order is untested. The strategic status quo in East Asia is being contested on multiple fronts: by
North Korea’s rising nuclear capabilities, and China’s anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities in key crisis hot zones,
including Taiwan and the South China Sea. Most importantly, for the first time in decades, the United States faces a strategic
peer-competitor, China, capable of pursuing and implementing its own “intelligentised” revolution in military affairs (RMA),
driven by artificial intelligence (AI) systems, which can potentially negate the strategic and operational advantages of the US
military across geopolitical lines. While the United States remains the sole superpower, it is no longer an indispensable power.
It is no longer willing or able to be the “world’s policeman”; at the same time, it does not want others to assume the task. In
particular, the United States wants to prevent China from becoming a new superpower. Nevertheless, this is probably
impossible: China is likely to overtake the United States in real GDP in the 2030s and reach de facto military parity with the
US military by the 2040s. In sum, by the middle of the century, China is going to be a superpower and have a voice in every
major Asian and global issue. The mounting intensity of great power competition, the scale and pace of China’s military

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modernisation, China’s boundary-pushing behaviour, and, finally, concerns over the US security commitment to the region
are all serving as catalysts for other states across the region to pursue new and enhanced military capabilities and to take on new
missions. Australia, for example, is working on loyal wingman capabilities, in which crewed fighter jets are paired with a team
of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Japan, for its part, is focusing on development of a range of technologies that include
directed energy, AI, hypersonic missiles, longer-range air-launched missiles to execute new counterstrike missions, and
technologies relevant to competing in the space and cyber domains and electromagnetic spectrum. The game-changing
promise of AI has already crossed important thresholds into the actual deployment of AI-enabled systems and capabilities in
14 real-world military operations. The US Air Force has used AI to identify and track targets in combat, while China has been
experimenting with AI-driven drone swarms deployed into near space, alongside a planned arsenal of anti-stealth drones,
hypersonic spy planes and high-altitude micro-UAVs. While these are early versions of capabilities that are likely to advance
considerably between now and 2040, the actual use of AI-enabled systems reflects the pace of innovation and the urgency to
incorporate the value of AI and machine learning into military operations, both of which are likely to increase as more
AI-enabled capabilities are deployed. Further changing the environment are advanced manufacturing techniques. Automated
factories, robotics and AI can be combined to dramatically reduce the cost of these emerging autonomous systems.
Consequently, advanced military-industrial sectors are no longer the primary drivers of technological innovation; instead,
emerging technologies with dual-use potential are being developed in the commercial sectors, including those of small states
and middle powers, and then being spun off to military applications.
New Forms of Hybrid Warfare — Emerging technologies enable new forms of hybrid warfare. These include space-based
hybrid operations, directed energy weapons, high-power microwaves, electronic operations (jamming, spoofing, etc.), and
attacks on satellites. Another form of hybrid warfare is the concept of “war as a service” (WaaS). WaaS builds on the concept
of military ecosystems and can be understood as a comprehensive politico-military concept to transfer military power in a
government-to-government framework, thereby shifting the focus away from outsourcing military power to other nations or
non-state actors. Finally, there is the concept of the “weaponisation of everything”. Its strategic objective is the broad erosion
of existing power and authority systems. It is proto-revolutionary in that it is designed to weaken, degrade, and destroy
existing power and authority systems without a clear replacement. It is being used or likely to be used by three types of
organisations: revisionist nations, particularly Russia, Iran, and China; organised criminal networks which believe that erosion
of state power and authority will provide them greater operating space; and ideological movements, most likely based on new
radical ideologies constructed on race, generation, or religion (to include religious opposition to technology). Most states are
unprepared for this second generation of the weaponisation of everything. At issue, therefore, is whether states will be
adequately innovative and resilient as they face multi-vector, often clandestine (and especially swarming), attacks on their
systems of power and authority.
Grey Zones: Challenges and Responses — As a result of the first two developments, one should expect to see an expansion of
“grey zone” operations,defined as competitions between state actors (or between state and non-state actors) that fall outside

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 traditional concepts of conflict. Russia and China are expanding their grey-zone competitions in Ukraine and elsewhere in
Central and Eastern Europe, and Japan, respectively. The goals of such operations are to reduce US power and influence in
both Europe and Asia, while expanding their own geopolitical interests. Grey-zone tactics include “elite capture” (via bribery
and other corrupt practices), energy dependency and other economic pressures, strategic corruption, and disinformation
campaigns. Chinese influence operations in Japan, for example, are targeted at the media (some local media outlets in Japan are
partly owned by China), academia and local politicians, among others, and also are intended as part of their economic
espionage campaigns. The primary goals are to (1) promote pro-China sentiment, (2) spread Communist Party of China
propaganda, (3) instigate anti-Korea sentiment, and (4) instigate anti-Western sentiment. Given recent increases in Russian
and Chinese grey-zone aggression, deterrence of such aggression must include both denial and punishment. Deterrence by
denial primarily consists of societal resilience, which begins with an informed public. Deterrence by punishment of grey-zone
aggression builds on deterrence by denial. Examples include embargoes of luxury goods, which are prized by both Russian and
Chinese elites. If the West signalled that it could suspend such exports when it decided that grey-zone aggressions had reached
an intolerable level, both countries might try to stay far below that level. Because they do not know where precisely Western
governments’ threshold of pain is located, the prospect of punishment would cause them to stay far below where they imagine
the threshold is. The same goes for other sanctions that Western governments could employ, such as threatening to cancel
visas for political, economic, and cultural elites of aggressor-nations, as well as for their families.
Strategic Implications — The convergence of emerging technologies and new forms of hybrid warfare presents novel strategic
challenges to traditional conceptions of deterrence and defence, particularly in the context of “cross-domain deterrence and
compellence” (CDD&C) challenges. CDD&C refers to the act of deterring an action in one domain through a threat in
another domain — where the domains are defined as land, under the land, at sea, under sea, in the air, in space, and in
cyberspace — and may often involve the use of economic sanctions and other diplomatic, political and informational tools. In

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other words, emerging technologies may enable cross-domain coercion in multiple domains to influence an opponent’s
strategic choices. Consequently, when contemplating how emerging technologies such as AI may further affect security and
defence trajectories, defence planners and militaries have to learn to use “non-kinetic toolkits”. What types of challenges does
this present for them? How will they operate in a contested environment characterised by the diffusion of sophisticated
longer-range adversary capabilities and methods such as ballistic missiles, submarines, weapons of mass destruction, as well as
offensive space, cyberspace, and AI-enabled warfare assets? Overall, how nations — and in particular, their military-industrial
complexes — can leverage advanced military and dual-use technologies will have a significant impact on military capabilities.
15 Such technologies and capabilities are being distributed unequally. Some countries will possess the resources to exploit
advanced military technologies — either through indigenous R&D efforts or through acquisition from foreign suppliers —
and others will not; some will have the means to systems-engineer advanced commercial technologies into effective military
systems (i.e., spin-off) and others will not. The main factors for success are probably funding, existing expertise (i.e., sizeable
and effective R&D bases, both military and advanced commercial), and top-down commitment to such a goal. All of these
factors, in turn, will probably have a significant impact on regional security and stability. (Richard BITZINGER is Visiting
Senior Fellow and Michael RASKA is Assistant Professor with the Military Transformations Programme of the Institute of
Defence and Strategic Studies, RSIS).

CPEC FUTURE PROSPECTS & ECONOMIC REFORMS

PAKISTAN and China have been trying their best to stimulate the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) since its
inception. But unfortunately, some pseudo intellectuals, paid NGOs and self-centric media outlets have been playing in the
hands of foreigners to pollute the real spirits of CPEC. It seems that they do not have any sense of nationalism but plenty of
notorious agendas. While Prime Minister Imran Khan and a Pakistani delegation was in China to attend the opening
ceremony of Beijing Winter Olympics one of the leading media houses of the country intentionally published a report of
Asian Development Bank titled “Economic Corridor Development in Pakistan: Concept, Framework and Case Studies” and
thus circulated negative sentiments against CPEC, the lifeline of Pakistan’s economy and guarantor of its future as described by
Premier Imran Khan. The said report indicated flaws in the country’s strategic geopolitical potential and suggested
improvement in regional and international economic connectivity to get any benefit from CPEC and termed structural
reforms vital to achieve optimal benefits. However, greater regional connectivity always depends upon geopolitics and CPEC
stands for geo-economy. Thus this report’s assumption is not correct. It further elaborated that if CPEC is successfully
implemented; Pakistan can harness its strategic geopolitical location, improve its regional and international economic
connectivity, enhance industrial development and become an economic hub for Central, South and West Asia. By saying this
in complicated manners it intentionally undermined CPEC’s real potential by attaching its efficiency and efficacy with
structural reforms of private sector development thus purposefully created doubts about strategic orientations of CPEC. The

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 report observed that tax reforms are essential to broaden the tax base and enhance the perceived fairness of the tax system.
Infrastructure built under the CPEC should be fully utilised to expand trade and regional cooperation. It seems that the timing
of this report and consequently its publication in the country has some close liaison among the hidden enemies of prosperity
and people alike which tried to portray CPEC as an average project. Moreover, the absurd correlation of CPEC with the
domestic tax system, reforms and other segments of the national economy are rather misleading and misconceived. Thus
intentionally CPEC was put in the line of fire. The study says Pakistan should transform its economy through export-led
growth. In this connection, CPEC would play a very important role in the country by establishing Special Economic Free
Zones and relocating Chinese firms. Thus CPEC has direct correlation with the export capacity building mechanism of the
country because the economy works in integration not isolation. The report pinpoints many policy flaws in the
macro-economy of the country which actually has nothing do with CPEC, its utility, orientation, scope and significance.
CPEC is a concept and cooperative model to stimulate different sectors of the economy. CPEC is a holistic approach to
develop the national economy. Moreover, it is a platform which provides important inputs for rapid growth in the country.
CPEC has nothing to do with poor export performance of the country or low productivity and a lack of competitiveness. It
surfaced because of an unfavourable trade policy environment, wrong economic and financial assumptions and inconsistent
policies of the government. Furthermore, CPEC is not answerable to an overvalued exchange rate and escalation of tariff on
imported raw material and intermediate goods that resultantly contributed to a fall in exports, resulting in a consistently large
trade deficit, which stood at $32.8 billion in FY2019. On the contrary, CPEC stimulated the energy sector and geared up
infrastructural development and thus further consolidated economic conditions of the country. It may further enhance the
manufacturing capacity of Pakistan. The current economic meltdown is the result of various complicated reasons in which
CPEC does not play any negative role. In addition to this, the increase in interest rates to 13.25pc in 2019 had substantially
raised the cost of capital to firms which may further dampen investment and exports. Thus CPEC does not have any role in
the monetary policy of the country. It is suggested that the government should expedite the development of the nine special

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economic zones (SEZs) planned along the CPEC routes and focus on labour, capital, technology, knowledge, innovation and
structural transformation . Moreover, more focus should be given to the development of the agriculture sector in CPEC
phase-II so that a balanced economic policy would be implemented. The said report indicated that urbanised and industrialised,
challenges such as infrastructure deficits, overstretched public services and environmental stress should be addressed as soon as
possible. However, CPEC phase-II initiation of green projects, agriculture development, climate change engineering and
ecological development would provide an ideal platform to curb these irritants of the economy in the country. On the
contrary, Pakistan and China signed a five-year Industrial Cooperation Framework Agreement (ICFA) to re-energise the
16 CPEC during the recent visit of PM Imran Khan and thus successfully negated all misconceptions and misperceptions about
CPEC. According to the text of the ICFA, Pakistan has agreed to take responsibility of the Chinese lives and property, in
addition to providing “special beneficial support for water and power supply that are necessary to develop SEZs and provide
efficient and favourable policy support for Chinese enterprises which are intending to invest or have already invested in the
Pakistani SEZs”. The signing of the ICFA under CPEC is a first “serious” step by the government during the past
three-and-a-half years to put the multibillion initiative of President Xi back on track. Pakistan will facilitate the Chinese
businesses in an efficient manner in accordance with the domestic law. It will also improve the domestic business environment,
provide policy support for Gwadar Free Trade Zone, Rashakai SEZ and other SEZs, guard the safety of enterprises and
employees investing in the country, provide special beneficial support for water and power supply which are necessary to
develop the SEZs and provide efficient and favourable policy support for Chinese enterprises which are intending to invest or
have already invested in the SEZs. In wide-ranging talks with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, Prime Minister Imran Khan
underscored the importance of Pakistan and China working together to promote shared objectives of peace, stability and
development in Afghanistan and regional connectivity. During their meeting, the Premiers of Pakistan and China reviewed
the entire gamut of bilateral ties including discussions on the bilateral economic and trade relations, onward march of CPEC
and important issues of regional and global concern. PM Khan appreciated the transformational impact of CPEC on Pakistan’s
infrastructure, energy, socio-economic development and improvement in livelihoods of the people. He underlined that
Pakistan was committed to high quality development of CPEC through its mutually reinforcing industrial, trade, health,
digital and green corridors. To conclude, CPEC has become a strategic asset which badly needs a specific national narrative to
mitigate all false news. Healthy contribution of the Press, not the puppetry journalists, sensible policy makers and not the
pseudo intellectuals is the need of the hour. Economic flaws, financial crunch and imbalanced spells of development may be
streamlined with the successful completion of CPEC projects, especially in energy (green), agriculture, social development, AI,
ICT and health. Thus national unity must be our mantra. (Feb 9, 2022, PakObserver)

INTEGRAL PAK-CHINA PARTNERSHIP AND THE WEST ?

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 PM Imran Khan has been to China on a four-day official visit (Feb 3-6). By all reasonable accounts, the Pakistan-China
partnership — often cited as a paragon of inter-state relationships— has profoundly emerged over the last 70 years. The
current 33 point Joint Pak-China statement is an affirmation of this belief. Unsurprisingly, this unique partnership is
underpinned by the rationale — of mutual trust, common interests and a convergent outlook — based on military, diplomatic,
geopolitical and geo-economic factors. Arguably, given the emergence of Pakistan as a nascent state in a hostile environment
in the “neighbourhood”, this security-cum-economic narrative became highly inevitable for Pakistan’s political and security
elite. But the West, particularly the US views this partnership with a jaundiced eye. Military dynamics: The most important
aspect of China-Pakistan military relations is the Chinese commitment to strengthen Pakistan’s indigenous weapon industry in
manufacturing military equipment by mutual collaboration. In 1980, China assisted Pakistan in erecting a Heavy Rebuild
Factory renamed Heavy Industries Taxila (HIT). This Complex has manufactured and refurbished various Chinese and
Western origin military components, including the al-Zarrar and al-Khalid tanks that have become front-line weapons and
formed the backbone of Pakistan’s artillery (Deepak, 2006). HIT is also working on next-generation hybrid al-Hayder tank.
Hallmark of Pakistan–China joint collaboration is the Joint-Fighter 17 (JF-Thunder) (Niazi, 2006). Development of this
multi-role fighter jet started in 1999 with Chinese collaboration at Pakistan Aeronautical Complex and the Chengdu Aircraft
Corporation (CAC) in China (Dawn 2015) JF-17 has given Pakistan remarkable excellence by producing a modern battlefield
fighter aircraft equipped with all offensive and defensive capabilities (Dawn 2015).Recently, the Pakistan Army inducted its
first batch of Chinese-made VT-4 battle tanks. The VT-4 tanks, built by the Chinese state-owned defence manufacturer,
Norinco, were supplied to Pakistan starting in April 2020. Pakistan is the third country to procure the VT-4 tanks, after
Thailand and Nigeria. In December 2020, China decided to sell 50 Wing Loong II UCAVs to Pakistan, claiming that it
“would be a nightmare for Indian ground formations in high-altitude areas as India’s military does not have the ability to
respond to the new-age stand-off weapons.” Diplomatic, geo economic dynamics: Pakistan has played a role in China’s
rapprochement with the US and its entry into international organisations like the World Bank. The relationship has been

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pertinent to the development of Beijing’s links with the Middle Eastern states as well. Currently, China’s quest for energy
security via its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has placed Pakistan at the centre of its geo-economic and geopolitical strategy.
Successive leaders of Pakistan and China have invested in the relationship which is now deeply entrenched at the grassroots
level. A vision and idealism guide this relationship. Intellectuals, civil society and the media have also played an important role
in consolidating the friendship. Further, Beijing and Islamabad demonstrate not only a mutuality of interests, but also an
earnest desire to further broaden this partnership. Pakistan considers its relationship with China to be the cornerstone of its
foreign policy, while China calls it as its highest priority. The level of mutual trust is conspicuous in their support for each
17 other on core issues of national interests. Pakistan has extended support to China on Xinjiang, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Tibet and
South China Sea issues, and at the Human Rights Council. While the parties are proactively promoting, facilitating and
executing the long-term industrial development plan, the CPEC is a framework of regional connectivity, infrastructure
development and industrial cooperation which will not only benefit the parties but also have a positive impact in the region.
Pakistan and China signed different agreements worth $10-15 billion during the recent visit of Pak Prime Minister Imran
Khan to China, including rollover of $4 billion deposits, fresh loan of $4 billion, and other projects. Security & strategic
dynamics: On its part, China is the only major power that unequivocally supports Pakistan’s efforts to safeguard its
independence and sovereignty. It is willing to invest in developing a strategic partnership with Pakistan, as against ups and
downs, it has witnessed in its relationship with the US. Beijing takes a principled stand on the issue of Pakistan’s membership
of the Nuclear Supplier’s Group (NSG), its listing in the Financial Action Task Force and sanctions. China recognises Kashmir
as a dispute between India and Pakistan and calls for a peaceful solution in line with the UN Charter, UNSC resolutions, and
bilateral agreements between India and Pakistan. Thus, China opposed India’s unilateral action of revoking the special status of
Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019. The critical western role: It is argued that whilst Pakistan still values its relationship with
the West, particularly, the US views Pak-China relationship with a polarized thinking —branding Pakistan as China’s satellite
sate. Whereas both China and the US have a common interest in economic stabilization of Pakistan, averting nuclear conflict
between India and Pakistan and assuring that economic and political stability in Afghanistan is core of regional peace. The US
must avoid viewing its bilateral relationship with Pakistan exclusively through the lens of its competition with China.
Washington must be wary of Chinese-Pakistani pressure on India and focus on mediation and conflict resolution mechanisms
to prevent conflict in the Himalayas from spinning out of control. And most importantly, the Biden Administration must do
more to hold India accountable for its human rights abuses in Kashmir, which remain a major source of conflict in South Asia
and a major reason for Pakistan to continue deepening its strategic relationship with China. The fact is: Balochistan Liberation
Army intermittently targets the CPEC projects in Pakistan with alleged Indian support. Washington needs to apply greater
pressure on India to prevent it from similarly targeting Pakistan and its CPEC projects. The latest terrorist attacks on Pakistan
security forces in Baluchistan serve as impeccable evidence to Pakistan’s security concerns. To save South Asia from becoming
a proxy arena for the US-Chinese rivalry, a revisiting of Washington’s growing reliance on New Delhi to counterbalance
Beijing is absolutely inevitable, especially on matters that could spoil America’s longstanding relationship with Pakistan.
Therefore, a meaningful reset between Pakistan-US ties is an impending order of the day. (Feb 10, 2022, PakObserver)

Compiled & Edited by Aamir Mahar — CSS Exam Desk

 ECONOMY AND NATIONAL SECURITY ARE INTERWOVEN
AFTER great excitement, Pakistan’s National Security Policy (NSP) 2022-2026 has finally been released. It is claimed that this
is the first national security card document of Pakistan although this is questionable. Earlier, we saw that the first internal
security policy (NISP) was formulated in 2014 to safeguard the country’s national interests by addressing major security issues
and concerns. NACTA/Ministry of Interior drew up a 20-point National Action Plan (NAP) for combating terrorism and
extremism in conjunction with stakeholders, which was approved by Parliament on 24 December 2014. The National Action
Plan designed by the current government outlined the specifics of the country’s counter-terrorism campaign. Pakistan’s
National Security Policy, 2022-2026, released by Prime Minister Imran Khan, places geo-economics at the heart of the
country’s national security vision. Khan, speaking at the launch of the paper, stated that a country that does not have a stable
economy cannot be termed secure. “Inclusive growth means not only to uplift the poor people but also the neglected areas…
(In such case) every common man becomes a stakeholder to protect the state…The biggest security is when people stand
behind the state for its protection,” said the Prime Minister. We must remember that in today’s global environment, countries
use the phrase “geo economy” as an economic weapon to achieve geopolitical goals, relation of international economics,
geopolitics, and strategy is known as geo-economics. It is in fact the use of economic instruments to promote and defend
national interests, as well as to achieve favourable geopolitical outcomes. In the post-Cold War era, economics and national
security were generally different worlds. However, several nations, including Australia, China, Germany, Japan, Russia, South
Korea, the United Kingdom and the United States, have experienced a dramatic convergence in the economic and security
components of policy and regulatory concerns in recent years. In this globalized world, the economy and national security
have become increasingly interwoven as a result of globalization and increased economic integration. As a result of these ties,
Pakistan’s national security faces both advantages and challenges. Pakistan’s economy is open and interconnected, rendering it
vulnerable to outside threats. As a result, economic security has risen to the top of the priority list. Different experts have

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different views on the national security policy that has been formulated but it is an inescapable fact that we can no longer
develop our country without advancing the economy. In today’s interconnected and interdependent world we are convinced
that the economy plays a pivotal role in moving nations forward. But in such a geographical region, where the neighbours are
the worst enemies of each other to what extent can we rely solely on the economy? And how far can we go with our internal
and external security? But first, we must tackle our security challenges, improving the situation on the eastern border is of
utmost importance at this time. In this regard, it is very important to know-how important economic development is for other
countries besides Pakistan. The fact is that the whole security situation has affected the sub-continent. According to the
18 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, India had the world’s third-largest military budget last year, trailing only the
United States and China. India’s military budget in 2019 was $71 billion. It increased by 259 percent over a 30-year period
from 1990 to 2019, and by 37% between 2010 and 2019. Pakistan’s defence budget consumes a significant portion of the
country’s total budgetary resources. Defence Services has been allocated Rs1,370 billion in Budget 2021-22. In terms of US
dollars, Pakistan planned an 8.89 billion dollar defence expenditure for 2021-22, compared to India’s budget of nearly 49
billion dollars. While the two countries have had a troubled history, they share some common problems such as high levels of
poverty. 22 per cent of the population or 270 million people live below the poverty line. Females are more affected than males.
The World Bank has estimated that poverty in Pakistan has increased from 4.4 per cent to 5.4 per cent in 2020, as over two
million people have fallen below the poverty line. Hunger, unemployment and a lack of education are all prevalent causes of
poverty in both countries. It is a fact that we cannot change our neighbours so why can’t we establish good relations with
them. We have not had a hundred years of war and our cultures are not very much different from each other. It is also a fact
that we fought the war of independence together. It is also a fact that we defeated the colonial powers together. So why is it
that we ignore so much of what we have in common and mostly emphasize on a few things that are controversial to us? Can’t
we give our children a better future? Can’t we tell our children about the struggle and the wars we fought together. It is
important to work on conflict resolution so that we can effectively sow the seeds of economic stability. (Feb 10, 2022,
PakObserver)
RECALIBRATING US-IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL
ON the eve of the Munich Security Conference(Feb.20), German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Saturday that “now is the
moment of truth” to determine whether Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers can be salvaged, and the Iranian
leadership needs to make a choice. Needless to say, in terms of US-Iran nuclear row, discourse to multilateral diplomacy has
always been the only sensible way to address the nuclear conflict. Yet not surprisingly, when foreign policy rides on hawkish
emotional currents and succumbs to a superpower’s egoistic temptations, the result is quite obvious: wise and subtle statecraft
has unfortunately gone into hibernation—endorsed by Trump’s impetuous unilateral decision (2018) to withdraw the US
from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. First, some history.Six years ago in Vienna, P5 + 1, China, Russia, US, France, UK, and
Germany, along with the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy) and Iran agreed (in July 2015)to
the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)— subsequently endorsed by the UNSC Resolution 2231(Oct.18 2015).

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 Nevertheless, three years later, in 2018, under President Donald Trump, the US unilaterally terminated the accord—calling it
as “horrible” and “one of the worst and most one-sided transactions— thereby imposing a new set of draconian sanctions
against Iran. Soon after, Tehran moved to keep international inspectors at a distance and being conjectured to be closer to
being in a position to produce nuclear weapons. In July 2015, Iran had two uranium enrichment plants – Natanz and Fordo –
and was operating almost 20,000 centrifuges. Under the JCPOA, Tehran was limited to installing no more than 5,060 of the
oldest and least efficient centrifuges at Natanz until 2026 – 10 years after the deal’s “implementation day” in January 2016.
Until now, as per the Arms Control Organisation, Tehran is accused of making five breaches vis-à-vis the JCOPA. As per the
2015 deal, Tehran and six negotiating powers were agreed that ran agreed not to produce either the highly enriched uranium
or the plutonium that could be used in a nuclear weapon. The proponents of the nuclear deal, particularly the European
policy strategists played instrumental role in resurrecting the said deal. In April 2021, Washington joined talks in Vienna aimed
at reviving the Iran nuclear deal terminated by the Trump administration abandoned in 2018. President Joe Biden has said he
wants to return to the landmark accord.But the six remaining state parties are supposed to find a way for him to lift the
sanctions. Officials from the UK, France and Germany were acting as intermediaries while the Chinese and Russian were also
active in this regard. The negotiations—seeking to bring Washington back to the accord and ensure Iran returns to its
commitments under the deal, were suspended in June 2021— as Iran elected ultraconservative President Ebrahim Raisi—were
resumed in November. With a new president of its own (Ebrahim Raisi) in place, Iran has declared its readiness to do so, but
only if the Trump-era sanctions are first rescinded. If the negotiations lead both sides back into the JCPOA, it would buy close
to a decade of limits on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for lifting many but not all of the economic sanctions. US State
Department official in January, 2022 said, “We are prepared to meet directly,” a State Department spokesperson said. “We
have long held the position that it would be more productive to engage with Iran directly, on both JCPOA negotiations and
other issues,” the spokesperson said, referring to the nuclear deal between Iran and major powers. Currently, the Biden
administration restored a sanctions waiver to Iran, as indirect talks between Washington and Tehran on returning to the 2015

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nuclear agreement entered the final stretch. The waiver, which was rescinded by the Trump administration in May 2020, had
allowed Russian, Chinese and European companies to carry out non-proliferation work at Iranian nuclear sites. According to
a senior State Department official, ‘We did NOT provide sanctions relief for Iran and WILL NOT until/unless Tehran returns
to its commitments under the JCPOA. We did precisely what the last Administration did: permit our international partners to
address growing nuclear non-proliferation and safety risks in Iran’. “There was some modest progress in the talks last week.We
hope to build on that this week,” Ned Price US State Department spokesperson, told reporters.“(Uranium) enrichment …
continues with a maximum ceiling of 60%, which led Westerners to rush to negotiations, and it will continue with the lifting
19 of sanctions by both 20% and 5%,” the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammad Eslami, was quoted by the
semi-official news agency Fars as saying. Iran’s FM Hossein Amir-Abdollahian suggested that direct talks would only make
sense if the U.S. lifts some sanctions or releases some Iranian assets frozen in foreign banks.Subsequently, the Iranian FM said
that the negotiations had “reached a critical and important stage”. Last week, Iran’s Parliament formulated certain stipulations
regarding concluding the said deal. “We hope that some sensitive and important issues remaining in the negotiations will be
resolved in the coming days with realism from the Western side,” he said at a joint press conference with his Oman
counterpart Sayyid Badr al-Busaidi. Consequent upon Trump’s termination of the Iran nuclear deal, Pakistan had shown its
grave concerns, saying that the US withdrawal from the deal would have brought some unproductive consequences for the
international community. The Washington-Tehran nuclear deal, a pragmatic quid pro quo — argues to return to the original
bargain of lifting sanctions against Iran, including ones that have slashed its crucial oil sales, in exchange for restrictions on its
nuclear activities. The negotiating world powers — lay out phases of mutual steps to bring both sides-US and Iran back into
full compliance, and the first does not include waivers on oil sanctions, sources say since the envoys from P5+1 and Iran are
still negotiating details of the draft accord amid Western warnings that time is running out before the original deal becomes
obsolete. Delegates say much of the text is settled, but some thorny issues remain.With a pragmatic revival of the JCPOA, the
major confrontation between Washington and Tehran could be amicably settled while making a triumphant victory for
peaceful nuclear diplomacy. (March 7, 2022, PakObserver)

HISTORICAL AMNESIA ON UKRAINE CRISIS

WHILE there is no doubt that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is illegal under International Law, just like the US invasion of
Grenada (1983) and Panama(1989) were in violation of the UN Charter, it is important to remember that the US and its
NATO allies gave rise to circumstances which served as a pretext for President Putin to invade Ukraine. Given the
significance of Ukraine as a vital National Security Interest, Russia sees further NATO expansion as a red line, and yet the
concerns expressed by Russian leaders over the years fell on deaf ears. The conventional response from the US and its NATO
allies has always been that Ukraine has the right to choose and that Russia should refrain from “interfering in internal matters
of other sovereign nations”. Claiming that Ukraine should have the right to join NATO is like saying Canada or Mexico have

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 the right to enter into a collective Security alliance with Russia or China. As a matter of fact, it is crucial to remember that the
United States has maintained hegemony over the Western hemisphere, which includes both North and South America, for
decades, a large part of which is informed by the Monroe Doctrine. The Monroe Doctrine was adopted in 1823 by the then
US President James Monroe, which opposed the European colonial interference in the Western Hemisphere. Although the
Monroe doctrine was signed almost 200 years ago, it continues to serve as the guiding principle for US foreign policy in the
Western Hemisphere. The most vigorous implementation of the Monroe Doctrine was witnessed during the cold war, which
the United States deemed necessary in order to contain the Soviet “expansion”. In defending Ukraine’s right to become a
member, proponents of NATO expansion argue that the aim of the alliance is to ensure security for vulnerable countries
facing constant bullying from powerful states like Russia, which is a weak argument in it of itself considering the United States
own historical record. For example, during the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, the US imposed a full embargo on Cuba and almost
invaded the country for hosting Soviet Missiles, even though one could have argued that Cuba had the right to use those
missiles as a deterrent against US aggression, which was on full display during the 1961 Bay of Pigs Invasion. Moreover, the
United States, in efforts to prevent Soviet influence, overthrew a number of socialist governments across Latin America and
even supported dead squads in El Salvador, a policy which was widely condemned. In fact in 1986 the International Court of
Justice ruled in Nicaragua vs United States that the US support for Contras was in violation of Customary International Law.
However, the US dismissed the ruling of the International Court of Justice and continued with its policy of funding the
right-wing rebels in Nicaragua against Sandanistas socialist government. The United States justified its disregard for
international norms as necessary in order to safeguard “national interests”, and so Russia’s willingness to play the same card
should not come as a surprise. Furthermore, it is important to bear in mind that Ukraine is not a vital National Security
Interest for the US. In fact, George Kennan, who was the chief architect of the US containment policy of Soviet expansion
echoed similar views in a 1997 op-ed for New York Times where he sounded the alarm bells and warned that NATO
expansion towards Russia “would be the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-cold-war era.” (March 5,

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2022, PakObserver)

RISING INFLATION & ITS IMPACT ON PAKISTANIS

THE squabbles in opposition and the unannounced agreement with TLP paved the way for government to settle the issues
with IMF. Petroleum prices have been raised by a record amount of 8.14 Pakistani rupees (PKR) per liter.The revised charges
20 will go into effect immediately. For the first time in Pakistan’s history, all petroleum products are priced above PKR 110 a liter.
According to government the relative petrol prices in Pakistan are still far less in this region. As a layman it is difficult to
understand and accept this claim.There are a few questions that come in mind automatically, for example, whether the per
capita income is also the same? Is the rate of inflation in other countries of this region also higher than us?Is the Consumer
Price Index (CPI) indexing also higher in other countries of this region? For this purpose it is inevitable to conduct a
comparative analysis.According to the stats given by World Bank, the per capita income of Pakistan is less than Bangladesh,
Bhutan, India, Maldives and Srilanka. It is only higher than Nepal and Afghanistan.Per capita income of Bangladesh is 1,968.8,
Bhutan is 3122.4, India is 1900.7, Maldives is 7455.9 and Srilanka is 3682. To conduct the comparitive analysis it is important
to know the CPI of the countries of this region as well (CPI s a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a
basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. It is calculated by taking price changes
for each item in the pre-determined basket of goods and averaging them). Again as per the figures given by the World Bank
the CPI of Pakistan is higher than other countries of the region. The CPI of Bangladesh is 189.9, Bhutan is 176.6, India is
184.3, Maldives is 134.7, Nepal is 198.3, Srilanka is 165.1 and the CPI of Pakistan is 200.1. The price of petroleum is
influenced by global pricing, and it is exogenous to a small economy like Pakistan. When prices fluctuate, it has a major impact
on CPI fluctuations both immediately and over several months. Interestingly, as per the data given by World Bank the rate of
inflation (Inflation is the rate of increase in prices over a given period of time. Inflation is typically a broad measure, such as the
overall increase in prices or the increase in the cost of living in a country) in Pakistan is highest in the region. As the rate of
inflation of Bangladesh is 5.7, Bhutan is 5.6, India is 6.6, Maldives is -1.4, Nepal is 5.1, Srilanka is 6.2 and Pakistan is 9.7. High
and rising inflation disproportionately affects the poor and fixed-income groups, owing to the higher proportion of their
wages spent on food. Inflationary pressure has a significant impact on the life of all households. Inflation is influenced by three
types of causes: demand factors, supply factors and monetary shocks. Monetary policy, fiscal policy, wage policy and seasonal
considerations are all demand factors. Weather, input costs, food production levels and changes in administered pricing are all
supply-factors. In Pakistan, the price of petroleum is one of the supply factors that causes inflation. Petroleum has a significant
part in Pakistan’s economy because it is widely used in our daily life, such as a source of fuel for automobiles and
manufacturing machines. It is also an important intermediate good in the manufacturing process. Many articles in recent years
have claimed that rising petroleum costs cause inflation in Pakistan. (March 1, 2022, PakObserver)

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 MAKING SENSE OF INSURGENCIES AND TERRORISM
Since its independence in 1947, Pakistan has been plagued with insurgencies and terrorism in one form or the other with new
variants emerging. The first Prime Minister of Pakistan was assassinated in Rawalpindi. In the late 60s, there was an attempt to
murder Field Marshall Ayub Khan who was the President of Pakistan at the time. Before independence, the Baloch dissidents
and Faqir of Ipi in North Waziristan were a regular source of discomfort for the British administration and after the creation of
Pakistan, they have continuously troubled the Pakistan Army. While the Baloch insurgency continued with regular intervals,
insurgency in East Pakistan resulted in the emergence of Bangladesh. Terrorism orchestrated by Al-Zulfiqar was another
manifestation of unrest in the country. Militant wings of Sindu Desh also carried out acts of terror from time to time. Pakistan,
Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa in particular, suffered acts of terror soon after jihad was declared in Afghanistan by organising jihadist
organisations against the communist government in Afghanistan and the Soviet Union. As a counter-reaction to our
involvement, regular bomb blasts took place in K-P. This phenomenon continued till the withdrawal of the Soviet Union
from Afghanistan. The society was infested with sectarianism as General Zia ul Haq employed jihadism and Islamisation to
fragment the democratic forces and consolidate his illegitimate power. Madrassas were used as a state policy for the recruitment
of jihadists, with funds funnelled from all sources. Fighters of all kinds with their own brand of Islam from all over the world
flocked to Pakistan. Soon, the strategic and ideological direction of those violent non-state actors was taken over by people
like Abdullah Azam and later by Osama Bin Laden. The situation was further compounded by intensifying ethnic divide in
Karachi in the form of the Muhajir Qoumi Movement (MQM) during the same period. These entities armed with money and
weapons gave rise to the war economy. They not only gained economic fortunes and political power but also provided
identity to foot soldiers. Also, these elements had been kept as reserves to fight irregular wars to keep the enemy bleeding and
to use for future eventualities. The state took a backseat which emboldened such organisations and led to their growth in
numbers, in the form of seminaries, trusts, and religio-political parties, producing a particular mindset, with holy jihad as their

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motto. They never took this established principle seriously that the declaration of jihad was the sole prerogative of the state
and not of any individual or group. This tendency continued, with organisations having offices in every nook and corner,
making appeals to the congregations in mosques to join their jihad. They had access to recruitment, training and finances.
Soon they also started meddling in social affairs by resolving disputes. Thus, gaining more social space during the process.
Once again Pakistan fell into the ravine of martial law. The 9/11 attacks provided General Pervez Musharraf with the
much-needed opportunity to get legitimacy for his regime by joining the war on terror with the US and NATO against
Al-Qaeda and the Taliban government in Afghanistan. The 9/11 incident redefined the world order, and the international
21 community suddenly woke up to the reality of dealing with international jihadism. By then we had failed to readjust to the
changed realities of the new world. Our strategic alignment was disarrayed, and various organs of the state were blamed for
speaking different discourses and pursuing contradictory policies. At this point, we began noticing a clear schism developing at
the societal level. Due to earlier policies, the extremist elements in the society seized the opportunity and grew more organised
and powerful. On the other hand, the human rights and local nationalist groups failed to galvanise their support base. Various
radical groups gradually got closer where Al-Qaeda leadership provided strategic planning and finances while the home-grown
radical groups provided manpower. The state’s control of these jihadist organisations began to weaken as they derived their
ideological inspiration from Mullah Omar. While jihadist outfits were getting strengthened with every passing day, the
country had no coherent policy at the state level. Analysts argue that country’s policymakers have failed to develop a
unanimous comprehensive strategy. It is often felt that the state’s policies are devised and implemented by institutions having
no representative character. Therefore, there is no strategic and comprehensive national security policy. The aforementioned
discussion manifests that the fault lies in our chemistry — certain chemicals are inimical to our bodies. These chemicals are
tendencies of extremism based on hate and extermination of others or their complete subjugation. For this jihad is used as a
tool. We have arrived at a juncture where we must seriously ponder over whether the state must pursue a religious agenda, or
should the state be neutral in matters of religion and confined to mundane affairs. Until and unless we correct this “chemical
imbalance”, it will be difficult to get rid of religious fundamentalism and violent extremism in any form. (Feb 10, 2022,
Express Tribune)
UNDENIABLE CLIMATE REPARATIONS
“A brief and rapidly closing window to secure a liveable future.” That’s the sobering assessment made by scientists on the
United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which earlier this week published its latest report, on
the impacts of the climate crisis. In it, the IPPC argues that roughly 3.5 billion people – 45% of the world’s population –
currently live in areas of “high vulnerability” to climate change, meaning they will be heavily impacted by floods, droughts or
extreme weather in the decades to come. Yet even more striking than the sheer scale of these impacts is their inequality and
unfairness. The vast majority of those 3.5 billion people are in “west-, central- and east Africa, south Asia, Central and South
America, small island developing states and the Arctic”. These regions – which have some of the lowest per capita carbon
emissions in the world – are now suffering the effects of a crisis that has been driven and exacerbated by the looting of their

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 lands for wealth and natural resources. Not only are these countries and communities faced with displacement, food shortages,
water insecurity and more, unless there is concerted global action, the report also asserts that many losses are already happening
now, and are irreversible.
What’s finance got to do with it? This situation is a result of the failure (or perhaps more accurately, refusal) of rich countries
to support the Global South against the climate crisis in UN negotiations. Not only have these “Annex 1” countries, including
the US, UK, Canada, Australia and most of the EU, repeatedly resisted ambitious, binding targets on emissions reductions,
they have also repeatedly broken promises on financial assistance. Last November, at COP26 in Glasgow, the Global South
had three key demands on finance: greatly increased climate finance grants; far more funding for climate adaptation; and a new
pot of money to compensate for the loss and damage already being suffered by frontline communities. This week’s report
highlights that, despite a 2009 pledge (at COP15) to commit roughly half of $100bn a year in climate finance to adaptation,
only 4-8% of funding has supported projects that help vulnerable communities live with the impacts of the climate crisis (and
some of those projects actually increase climate vulnerability). Those communities are now being sacrificed to the selfishness of
rich governments that resist paying for the crisis they have caused every step of the way. The demand for loss and damage
compensation has also been heavily resisted at every previous COP. At COP26, the establishment of a new funding pot was
rejected and almost all references were removed in the final agreement, the Glasgow Climate Pact. Campaigners have hailed
the promise for further discussions on loss and damage as a small win, and will push hard to make it a key issue at COP27 in
Egypt this coming November. Yet, insiders have now raised concerns that there was significant pressure from the Biden
administration to remove any mention of loss and damage from the latest IPCC report. Meanwhile, frontline communities,
such as in Sub-Saharan African, South East Asia and small island states in the Pacific and Caribbean, continue to lose homes,
livelihoods and families to the climate crisis. For example, just before Christmas, while it also dealing with a steep rise in
COVID-19 infections, the Philippines was hit by super typhoon Rai (also called Odette), which displaced half a million

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people and impacted nearly five million in total. Just a few weeks ago, tropical storm Ana affected nearly 200,000 people across
several countries in southern Africa. Without adequate finance, countries often need to take out loans to rebuild, forcing them
further into a colonial debt trap that forces them to prioritise debt payments over protecting their citizens. Research suggests
that lower income countries spend five times their climate adaptation budgets on external debt payments. Take Mozambique,
which, after devastating cyclones in 2019, was forced to take on a $118m loan from the International Monetary Fund. World
Bank data suggests that an average person in Mozambique contributes 76 times less carbon emissions than their US counterpart,
yet it is Mozambicans and other frontline communities who are paying – with their wallets and their lives – for this crisis.
22 Reparations for a liveable world Increasing the transfer of finance from the Global North to the Global South is therefore an
important element of limiting the devastation, and moving towards climate justice, but it alone cannot repair all the damage
done by capitalist extractivism. Increasingly, social movements are calling for a broad programme of climate reparations to
atone for the Global North’s role in creating and accelerating the climate crisis. These calls are not new: campaigns for African
reparations for colonialism have existed for centuries, while it has been more than a decade since climate movements called for
financial and technology transfer to the Global South. However, the calls for reparations are growing in volume, and found
support among youth strikers and climate justice activists at COP26. As reparationist Esther Stanford-Xosei argues, reparations
are not simply a matter of financial compensation, but must include bigger, more radical changes that help us build “new
economic systems that don’t produce and reproduce inequality”. Alongside the much needed adaptation and loss and damage
finance, a climate reparations programme in this vein could include (but would not be limited to) the patent-free sharing of
green tech with the Global South, wealth taxation, debt cancellation, tax transparency reforms, and reforms to international
institutions. Demands such as these would not just be an attempt to right historical injustices created simultaneously by
colonialism and climate change, but to prevent them occurring again in the future. As Olúfemi Táíwò says, these types of
reparations are “central to the expansive project of building a more just world”. As radical as this might seem, for billions
across the Global South it is the only just and liveable future. And the window to achieve it is closing rapidly.(Published by
Daniel Willis on March 4, 2022 in Open Democracy)

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