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Evolution of parasites
by Mateian Andrei and Chereji Rareș
11 grade Colegiul Național “Mihai Eminescu” Satu Mare, Romania
th

Coordinating teacher: Daly Marciuc

Abstract
This study is filled with assumptions, but in the end the generalization of the problem was
completed. We figured a way to see the evolution in every ‘t’ time for both the host population
and the parasites. At the end, the clear winner between the hosts and parasites was evidently.

The task
In an isolated environment, we study the relation between a certain type of parasite and their host
and how these evolve with time t (continuous or discrete). In our model, parasites deposit eggs
on their hosts and when the eggs hatch, the host dies. Denote by H and P the number of hosts and
parasites respectively (these can be modelled as a function of t). At each step (unit time), the
number of eggs deposited depend on the probability that a parasite and a host meet. One can
assume that this probability is proportional to the product H.P of the populations. We are given
fixed values b and d for the birth and death rate of hosts when no parasites are present.
Moreover, we let dp be the death rate of the parasites. Run simulations for given values of b, d
and dp and try to determine what happens with the populations H and P in time.

Our assumptions
d
 We will express the probability of a host meeting a parasite, p= , where d is an
100
integer from 0 to 100
 The number of parasites you must have in order to be able to deposit an egg.
 One host can multiply itself, but once the host population reaches 0, it remains there.

Case 1: A parasite can infect only one host

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When we first read the task of our subject, our first thought was that the parasite can infect only
one host at a t period of time. Furthermore in this case, depending on the probability of a parasite
and a host meeting, the population of parasites (P) will slowly increase or rapidly decrease,
almost to extinction, and the population of hosts (H) will slowly decrease or increase only after
the parasites are extinct.

Figure 1 Figure 2

Case 2: A parasite can lay multiple eggs on one host

Nonetheless we believed that a parasite could be able to lay more than only one egg, when it is
infecting one host. In this case, the P will rapidly increase, the probability making a difference
only if it is very small, and the H will rapidly decrease causing the host’s extinction.

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 Figure 3 Figure 4

Case 3: A parasite can infect multiple hosts laying multiple

eggs on them
Following even more thinking, we figured out that it is possible for a parasite to infect multiple
hosts at one period of time. By doing this the P will increase even faster than in the previous
case, and the H will again decrease to extinction.

Figure 5 Figure 6

Case 4: Multiple parasites can lay eggs on a host

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We continued with the theory that multiple parasites could infect the same host. In this case, the
population of parasites will increase very fast, while the population of host will decrease in the
same manner.

Figure 7 Figure 8

Case 5:A parasite can become a host and if that parasite is

infected it cannot infect other hosts or parasites
Our final belief was that a parasite can infect other parasites, as well as hosts, so in this case the
population of both parasites and hosts at one period of time will become extinct.

Figure 9 Figure 10

The final algorithm

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Input and initializing

Figure 11

Body and output

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 Figure 12

Example

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For the following input, we have made two graphs, to see the evolution of the hosts and
parasites.

Graph 1: b=50, d=20, dp=20;

Figure 13

The probability for a parasite to meet a host was 33%, and for a parasite to infect one of its kind
40%. Parasite population started at 2, host population at 100. The maximum eggs a parasite can
hatch is 1, and the limit of infection 8. The parasites could kill off all the hosts by time 7. The
parasites win convincingly this time around.

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Graph 2: b=150, d=20, dp=50;

Figure 14

The probability for a parasite to meet a host was 20%, and for a parasite to infect one of its kind
40%. Parasite population started at 2, host population at 150. The maximum eggs a parasite can
hatch is 1, and the limit of infection 8. The parasites could kill off all the hosts by time 10. The
parasites win again, but it was a close battle between the two populations.

Graph 3: b=300, d=30, dp=100;

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 Figure 15

The probability for a parasite to meet a host was 35%, and for a parasite to infect one of its kind
50%. Parasite population started at 8, host population at 1000. The maximum eggs a parasite can
hatch is 3, and the limit of infection 2. The parasites could kill off all the hosts by time 96. From
out of nowhere the parasites come through to steal the victory away from the dominant hosts.
But by running multiple simulations, the hosts tend to beat the parasites.

Graph 4: b=1000, d=140, dp=200;

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 Figure 16

The probability for a parasite to meet a host was 20%, and for a parasite to infect one of its kind
90%. Parasite population started at 250, host population at 100000. The maximum eggs a
parasite can hatch is 10, and the limit of infection 5. The parasites could not keep up with the
hosts, and it becomes the first clear win from the “good guys”.

Conclusion

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From the animations and simulations made from using the code, we cannot definitely say which
side will be the clear winner, but in most cases the parasites have a tendency to outlive the hosts.
In the case of remaining with no more hosts, the parasites will start to infect one another and die
slowly as they cannot reproduce anymore. Otherwise, it will be the hosts who will not be stopped
to increase their population levels to infinite. Anyway this simulations go, it all depends on the
probabilities, and this is the beauty of this exercise. Nobody can know what will happen in the
next step.

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