KWAME NKRUMAH UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND

TECHNOLOGY,
KUMASI, GHANA

ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON

IRRIGATION WATER USE IN BAGRE, OUAGADOUGOU
BURKINA FASO
By:

Bako Brahima (BSc Civil and hydraulic Engineering)

A Thesis submitted to the Department of Civil Engineering,

College of Engineering

In partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree

Of

MASTER OF SCIENCE

Water Resources Engineering and Management

FEBRUARY 2021
 DECLARATION

I hereby declare that this submission in my own work towards the MSc Water Resources
Engineering and Management and that to the best of my knowledge, it contains no material
previously published by another person, nor material which has been accepted for the award of
any other degree of the university, except where due acknowledgment has been made in the text

BAKO BRAHIMA ……………………… 05/02/2021

(PG 5073118) Signature Date

Certified by:

ING. DR. CHARLES GYAMFI ……………………… 05/02/2021

(Supervisor) Signature Date

Certified by:

Prof. S. ODURO-KWARTENG ……………………… …………..

( Head of department ) Signature Date

I
 DEDICATION

To Allah almighty

And

My parents, Mr. Oumar Bako and my late mother Mrs. Fanta Bako, as well as to my brothers

and sisters Fatoumata Bako and Youssouf Bako

II
 ABSTRACT

As a global issue, climate change is linked to the increase in the average global temperature
because it is related to the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. This study assessed
the impact of climate change on the use of irrigation water in Burkina Faso (more precisely in
the Bagre region) in the Boulgou region. The reservoir is one of the largest in the country and is
used for both hydropower and irrigation, managed by DGRE and SONABEL.

First of all, the estimation of the historical rice crop water withdrawal from the Bagre Reservoir
(1997 to 2010) and the irrigation requirements of the major crop, rice grown during the dry
season, were calculated using the CROPWAT model.). Two scenarios of RCM RCP 4.5 and
RCP 8.5 were used with extreme weather conditions in 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090 and weather
stations (Fada, Manga, and Po). Using the evapotranspiration formula of Thornthwaite (1948),
climate data from 1987 to 2018 were used to calculate historical and future evaporation losses.
Finally, based on climatic conditions and a reasonable climate change adaptation strategy, future
irrigation demand was calculated. The temperature increased with both scenarios by (0.8 to
1.5°C) for, (1.0 to 2.9°C) for Manga and Po by (1.7 to 3.6°C). Scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
show that there will be a reduction in rainfall for the Fada station from (12.93 to 24.33%) for
RCP4.5 and (0.20 to 14.85%) for RCP8.5. For Manga station there is a decrease of 7.33% for
RCP4.5 and 12.43% for RCP8.5 for the year 2030, the rainfall increase with Manga station will
be (2.26 to 30.89%) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from (4.69 to 38.38%) for the years 2050, 2070 and
2090. Rainfall at Po station will be reduced by 23.57% in 2030 and 12.79% in 2050. The results
show that when the maximum historical area is used under future climatic conditions, the
extraction of irrigation water from the rice and evaporation from the reservoir cannot reach the
irrigation threshold. But exceeding the threshold (0.8 to 7.88%), when the entire extended area is
used for rice, the volume of the threshold is (11.06 Mm3 to 108.88 Mm3).

Climate change adaptation measures such as planting of crop varieties tolerant to adverse
climatic conditions, efficient water management, and application of organic matter fortified with
inorganic fertilizer if implemented can help farmers cope with climate change.

Key words: Climate change, irrigation water requirement, climate scenarios,adaptation

III
 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I am very grateful to Allah the Almighty for his unending love and protection towards me
throughout my stay in Ghana at KNUST campus.

The work I have done is the result of the efforts of many people and I thank them for that. I
apologize at the outset to those who are not mentioned in my remarks, because we understand
the limits of human memory, of which forgetting remains one of its characteristics.

I am deeply grateful to my supervisor, Ing. Dr. Charles Gyamfi. He has been at my side all
along, giving me wise and thoughtful advices, finding a good equilibrium between scientific
guidance and personal freedom. I enjoyed every conversation with him and it has been a great
encouragement to me to be a young, independent researcher.

I would also like to thank Professor S.Oduro-Kwarteng, Director of the Regional Water and
Environmental Sanitation Centre in Kumasi (RWESCK) for providing me with this scholarship.
My most sincere gratitude goes to all the lecturers of the Regional Water and Environmental
Sanitation Centre in Kumasi (RWESCK) and especially Prof. G. K. Anornu, Prof. S. Oduro-
Kwarteng and Dr. K. Adjei for their advice and comments during the presentation of the progress
report.

I would also like to thank all the engineers who provided me with data assistance despite their
busy schedules, specifically Mr.Ouedraogo Jean Baptiste engineer at Faso ingenierie, Mr.
Guigma kader engineer at ASI-BF and Mr. Ouedraogo. P. Clement engineer at SGC2T.

I also sincerely thank the staff and residents of Steven Paris Hostel, as my living environment
during this period was warm. Finally, I implore Allah to bless all my classmates, especially
MademoiselleOuédraogo.G.Dorice, Ramdé Rebecca, Hema Maimouna and Siguié Sailm
Fabiola.

IV
TABLE OF CONTENTS

DECLARATION............................................................................................................................ I
DEDICATION.............................................................................................................................. II
ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................. III
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .......................................................................................................... IV
LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................... VIII
LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................... IX
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ................................................................... X
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................... 1
1.1 Background ............................................................................................................................ 1
1.2 Problem statement ................................................................................................................... 2
1.3 Justification ............................................................................................................................ 2
1.4 Objectives of the study............................................................................................................. 3
1.5 Structure and organization reports ........................................................................................... 3
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................ 4
2.1 Climate change scenarios for impact and adaptation assessment. ........................................... 4
2.2 Climate scenarios ..................................................................................................................... 4
2.3 Criteria for selecting Climate Scenarios .................................................................................. 5
2.4 Type of climate scenarios ........................................................................................................ 6
2.4.1 Synthetics Scenarios ..................................................................................................... 6
2.4.2 Analogue Scenarios ...................................................................................................... 7
2.4.3 Scenario from the Global Climate Model (GCM). ....................................................... 8
2.5 Downscaling purpose ............................................................................................................... 9
2.5.1 Dynamical Downscaling ............................................................................................... 9
2.5.2 Statistical downscaling................................................................................................ 11
2.6 Climate change impact on irrigation ...................................................................................... 12
2.7 Impact of climate change on soil and water resources .......................................................... 13
CHAPTER THREE:................................................................................................................... 15
MATERIALS AND METHODS ............................................................................................... 15

V
3.1 STUDY AREA ...................................................................................................................... 15
3.1.1 Location ...................................................................................................................... 15
3.1.2 Climate and pluviometry.............................................................................................. 16
3.1.3 Relief ........................................................................................................................... 17
3.1. 4 Soil and geology ........................................................................................................ 17
3.1.5 Vegetation ................................................................................................................... 18
3.1.6 Drainage system .......................................................................................................... 19
3.1.7 Water resources ........................................................................................................... 19
3.1.8 Socio-Economic Activities ......................................................................................... 21
3.1.9 Population and size density ......................................................................................... 22
3.1.10 Description of Bagre irrigation Project ..................................................................... 22
3.2 MATERIALS AND METHODS ............................................................................................ 24
3.2.1 Site selection ............................................................................................................... 24
3.2.2 Desk study ................................................................................................................... 24
3.2.3 Data collection ............................................................................................................ 24
3.2.4 Assessing the current irrigation water demand ........................................................... 24
3.2.5 Climate Change scenarios ........................................................................................... 26
3.2.6 Future irrigation water demand ................................................................................... 28
3.2.7 Climate adaptation strategies .............................................................................................. 29
CHAPTER FOUR....................................................................................................................... 30
RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS ............................................................................................... 30
4.1 Historical water abstraction baseline ..................................................................................... 30
4.2 Current irrigation needs. ........................................................................................................ 33
4.3 Climate change scenarios with RCM..................................................................................... 35
4.3.1 Bias correction of RCM .............................................................................................. 36
4.3.2 Prediction of future climate ........................................................................................ 39
4.4 Future irrigation needs ........................................................................................................... 48
4.5 Future irrigation water abstraction scenarios ......................................................................... 51
4.5.1 Future cultivation based on maximum land areas for rice .......................................... 51
4.5.2 Future rice-based cropping in all irrigable areas of the reservoir .............................. 54
5.6 Climate adaptation measures ............................................................................................... 57
4.7 Limitation of the study ........................................................................................................... 59

VI
4.8 Overall limitation of the study ............................................................................................... 59
CHAPTER FIVE ........................................................................................................................ 60
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...................................................................... 60
5.1 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 60
5.2 Recommendation ................................................................................................................... 61
REFERENCES............................................................................................................................ 62
APPENDIX .................................................................................................................................. 70

VII
 LIST OF TABLES

Table 2. 1:Description of the project name and date, area of interest, objective and downscaling

approach used for the African Climate Change Assessment Project ............................................ 10

Table 4. 1: Growing period of crop and the soil types as used in the CROPWAT model 33

Table 4. 2:List of stations, and stations locations ......................................................................... 36

Table 4. 3:Impact of Climate Change on Net Irrigation Water Requirements of the three crops,

(mm/period) in future climate Scenarios ...................................................................................... 50

Table 4. 4:Precentage Change (%) in Net Irrigation Water Requirement of the three crops

between Climate scenarios ............................................................................................................ 50

VIII
 LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 3. 1: The study area ........................................................................................................... 16

Figure 3. 2: Climatic Map of Burkina Faso showing Bagre ....................................................... 17
Figure 3. 3: Map fo the hydrographic network of Bagre department ........................................... 20
Figure 4. 1: Water abstracted from the Bagre reservoir for rice irrigation in the dry season of
(1997-2010) ……………………………………………………………………………………31

Figure 4. 2: Mean daily evaporation for Po (1997-2016) ............................................................ 32

Figure 4. 3: Mean daily evaporation and mean temperature ....................................................... 33
Figure 4. 4:Crop irrigation requirements of rice in the dry season (1997-2010) in Bagre ......... 34
Figure 4. 5:Irrigation requirement of rice .................................................................................... 35
Figure 4. 6: Comparison of the maximum and minimum observed, raw and bias-corrected
temperatures for NorESM1 for the stations of (a: Fada, b: Manga, and c: Po) ............................ 37
Figure 4. 7: Comparison of observed data, raw RCM data, and bias-corrected Rainfall data for
the three stations (a: Fada, b: Manga, and c: Po) .......................................................................... 39
Figure 4. 8: Projected maximum and minimum temperature for ( a: Fada, b: Manga and, c: Po )
station ............................................................................................................................................ 41
Figure 4. 9: Monthly mean max and min temperature for the year 2030,2050,2070 and 2090
based NorEMS1 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 a: Fada, b: Manga and, c: Po ................................. 43
Figure 4. 10: Predicted average annual precipitation of NorESM1 for (a: Fada, b: Manga and, c:
Po ) station .................................................................................................................................... 45
Figure 4. 11: Monthly rainfall for the year 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090 under RCP4.5 and
RCP8.5 ( a: Fada, b: Manga and, c: Po ) ...................................................................................... 47

IX
Figure 4. 12: Evaluation of future irrigation abstractions from the Bagre reservoir for rice
irrigation for the three stations ( a: Fada, b: Manga and, c: Po ) at the time of the maximum
cultivated land area between 1997 and 2011 ................................................................................ 54
Figure 4. 13:Evaluation of future irrigation abstractions from the Bagre reservoir for rice
irrigation with the three stations (a: Fada, b: Manga, and c: Po) at the time of the total cultivated
land area ........................................................................................................................................ 56

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

AMMA: African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis

ANAM: Agence Nationale de la Meteorologie du Burkina Faso
AR4: Fourth Assessment Report
BUNASOLS: Bureau National des Sols du Burkina Faso
CORDEX: Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment
CMIP5: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
DDC: Data Distribution Centre
DGRE: Direction Génerale des Ressources en Eau
ETWA: Estimated Total Water Abstracted
FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization
GCM: General Climate Change
GIR: Gross Irrigation Requirement
INERA: Institut de l’Environnement Recherches Agricoles
IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
LTA: Long-Term Average
MAAH: Ministere de l’Agriculture et des Aménagements Hydro-agricoles
NAPA: National Adaptation Programme of Action
NIR: Net Irrigation Requirement
NorESM1-M: Norwegian Earth System Model
PET: Potential Evapotranspiration
RCA4: Rosby Centre Regional Atmospheric model

X
RCM: Regional Climate Change
RCP: Representative Concentration Pathway
SMHI: Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
SONABEL: Société Nationale d’Electricité du Burkina Faso
SSA: Sub-Saharan Africa

XI
 CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background
Climate change is a major challenge for water sustainability, food security, and human well-
being. In the 21st century, approximately 21 million people in Burkina Faso have been affected
by climate change ( DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT, 2015 ). Various climate models indicate that in West
Africa the average temperature may increase, whereas rainfall may decrease. This change will
have a major impact on the incomes and living conditions of the population, especially the poor.
A report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC-TGICA, 2007 ) states that
the vulnerability of developing countries to climate change is greater than that of industrialized
countries because agriculture is predominantly rain-fed and remains the most important sector of
their economies. The level of emissions depends on the degree of industrialization of the country
and the technological advancement, among other factors.However, le impacts of climate change
on the natural resources of a region depend on the change or modifications in the atmospheric
circulation over the area induced by the changes in global atmospheric chemistry.

Although the impact of climate change on a region's natural resources is a function of changes or
alterations in the atmospheric concentration over the area caused by global atmospheric
chemistry, the extent of the damage that could occur in each country is uncertain.

If the impact of climate change is uncertain and appropriate adaptation measures cannot be
taken, the phenomenon of climate change will seriously jeopardize the country's socio-economic
development. Climate change affects many sectors, such as water resources, agriculture, human
health, energy, industry, forestry, and fisheries (Andah et al., 2002 ). The impact of climate
change is evident throughout Burkina Faso. The eastern and south-western parts of the country
generally benefit from more favorable climatic conditions and are therefore increasingly affected
by high temperatures and arid regions. ( DE VIE, 2007). Due to its territorial conditions, Burkina
Faso's tropical climate is dry, fluctuating between a short rainy season and a long dry season.
Due to the situation in its hinterland and sub-Saharan regions, Burkina Faso's climate is sensitive
to seasonal and annual changes. The country is defined by three climatic zones: the Sahel region
in the north has a mean annual rainfall of under 600 mm, the northern region of Sudan in the
north having a mean rainfall of between 600 and 900 mm, and the southern region of Sudan
having a mean annual rainfall of over 900 mm. Global warming could affect the Saharan region

1
of Africa, leading to significant changes in rainfall, water shortages, and lower agricultural
yields. This increases the risk of drought and evaporation and is expected to reduce agricultural
productivity by 10% by 2050 ( IPCC-TGICA., ( 2007 ). Concerning climate change, the
temperature could rise (expected to increase by 1.4 to 1.6°C by 2050). ( IPCC-TGICA., ( 2007),
potentially increasing the risk for forest fires or bushfires.

1.2 Problem statement

In most areas of Burkina Faso, the local populations are mainly farmers. Their agricultural
activities depend on irrigation water, which comes mainly from stored water and a few small
reservoirs. The major irrigation water sources in these areas are the Bagre reservoir during the
rainy and dry seasons. The Bagre Reservoir is mainly used to provide water for hydropower and
irrigation.

Several types of research have predicted the response to greenhouse warming in the form of
increased temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and changes in precipitation, all of
which affect the relationship between crop supply and demand (Nielson et al., ( 2001 ). As
demand for agricultural water increases, competition for the same resources from different users
will further restrict agricultural supply, especially when many reservoirs providing irrigation
water are also used for domestic water supply and livestock watering and construction, not to
mention the use of water for hydroelectric power generation, which will reduce electricity
generation capacity. Nevertheless, with population growth, scientific advances, climate change,
and improved social living standards, household water use, and demand for water have increased
(Nielsen et al., 2001). As a result, it is uncertain whether there is enough water for the projected
expansion, now and in the future. If we do not consider the possibility of reduced/increased
rainfall due to climate change in our current development, the difficulty of irrigating agriculture
could be exacerbated.

1.3 Justification
Over many years, irrigation water has allowed farmers to reduce their dependency on rainfall,
thereby increasing average production while decreasing the interqnnqul variability internal
changes (Tuibiello, 2005; Diamond et al., ( 1997 ). The semi-arid zone that has been affected by
scarce water supply in current conditions may be the most vulnerable area of climate change.
Wetlands may be less affected (Yano et al., 2007; Brumbelow and Georgakakos, 2001; Fuhrer

2
2003; Fuhrer 2004; Fuhrer 2005). Despite differences in socio-economic development,
technological development prospects, and climatic systems in semi-arid regions, these semi-arid
regions seem to have sufficient agricultural water supply in the current climate and are under
threat. The demand for irrigation water is expected to increase in warm climates.

Due to increased temperatures and insufficient rainfall to meet the high demand for evaporation,
drought may occur in the region and have an impact on the Bagre reservoir. This may result in
reduced production or the need for more irrigation to maintain production. This shortfall do to
temperature increase can be compensated for by the effect of high CO2 on crop tolerance to
water stress. The latest trend in the climate change phenomenon requires an evaluation of the
water pressure required for future irrigation by determining how the risks associated with climate
change will affect the use of irrigation water, particularly in certain areas, such as the Bagre
region.

1.4 Objectives of the study

The overall objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of climate change on the use of
irrigation water in the Bagre region of Burkina Faso.

To achieve this main objective, the following specific objectives were examined:

• To establish an irrigation water abstraction baseline for the Bagre irrigation project.
• To evaluate the impacts of current and future climatic scenarios on irrigation water
requirement for rice crops grown in the Bagre region.
• To identify the adaptation measures to deal with the potential impacts of climate change
in the region.

1.5 Structure and organization reports

The report is divided into six chapters. The first chapter presents the introductory section of the
report, including background, research objective, research objectives, and the structure of the
report. Chapter two presents a comprehensive literature review. The third chapter presents the
areas of research. Chapter four presents the methods and tools for data collection and analysis.
Chapter Five presents the findings and discussion of the study, and Chapter Six presents the
conclusions and recommendations of the study.

3
 CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Climate change scenarios for impact and adaptation assessment.

The variation of the different climatic parameters such as temperature and rainfall gives us an
idea of climate variability. The rate changes in the atmosphere is greater than that of the ocean
which allows us to conclude that the atmosphere moves faster, while the ocean plays the role of
storing a large quantity of heat but releases these heats slowly over a long period, which
summarizes that the ocean is like a memory in this circulation (Kusi, 2013).

However, these changes affect oceanic and atmospheric circulation, causing the earth to warm up
under the sun. According to (Mechler and Bouwer, 2015), Western Africa is among the most
vulnerable and extreme regions in terms of climate change.

The ability to adapt to climate damage varies even if various regions and countries are exposed
to the same extreme climatic conditions.

There is ample evidence that exposure alone is not enough to understand trends in disaster losses
and that both social and economic vulnerabilities are essential (Cutter, Boruff, and Shirley, 2003;
Mechler and Bouwer, 2015). Western Africa has emerged as one of the most vulnerable regions
to climate change, both in terms of exposure to climate variability (Turco et al., 2015) and
social-economic vulnerability (Acheampong, Ozor and Owusu, 2014)

According to (Döll, 2002) climate change will affect all the meteorlogical factors in the medium
and long term. Climate Change is a long-term change in global or regional climate patterns.
Climatic change refers often to the increase in global temperatures from the mid-twentieth
century to the Present. External influences that occur naturally such as a change in solar radiation
and volcanism are the cause of natural variability; human activities that began with the industrial
revolt causing changes in the atmosphere cause the emission of greenhouse gases into the
atmosphere.

2.2 Climate scenarios

The increase in global temperature due to human activities causing the increase in greenhouse
gas concentration has allowed scientists to have a convincing vision. However, these scientists
remain concerned about the change in the regional climate(Giorgi, Jones, and Asrar, 2009).

4
Climate scenarios represent plausible representations of future climate conditions (temperature,
precipitation, etc.). They can be generated using several approaches, including analysis of
climate observations and models (Goosse et al., 2016; Hegerl and Zwiers, 2011). Several
scenarios need to be considered to assess the sensitivity of the unit of exposure to climatic
change and to help world leaders make decisions on sound policy outcomes (IPCC-TGICA,
2007). Climate is a plausible indication of what the future could look like over several decades
because of a set of assumptions. The different possible scenarios are surrounded by a large part
of uncertainty regarding these hypotheses (Hulme and Brown, 1998). The provision of
quantitative estimates of future climate variability has been possible due to the simulation of
climate models (Sharmila et al., 2015).
As a result, the choice of scenarios may also be controversial unless the fundamental uncertainty
of scenario analysis in future projections are adequately taken into account in the impact
assessment.
2.3 Criteria for selecting Climate Scenarios
To make a smooth study possible, certain objective criteria must be met by climate impact
researchers working on simulations. To conduct a smoother study, climate impact modelers
engaged in climate simulation must meet certain objective criteria, including the performance of
previous models, propagation, and independence of climate change signals (Mendlik and Gobiet,
2016). The General Climate Model (GCM) model was one of the first approaches published on
the model selection criteria of the climate scenarios (Feenstra et al., 1998). Several criteria have
been proposed by them such as the millesimal which considers only the latest generation of
climate simulation, the resolution at a very high resolution, the validity takes into account the
performance of the modes in the past and the representative who chooses simulations in the
lower or upper part of the different ranges of climate change signals which are temperature and
precipitation to obtain a representative subsample (Mendlik and Gobiet, 2016).

(Feenstra et al., 1998) propose four criteria that climate scenarios should meet to influence
researchers and decision-makers.

Criterion 1: Consistency with world projections. The scenarios must be coherent with a wide
range of projections of the warming of the climate based on increasing greenhouse gas
concentrations. It is variously reported that this global range is between 1.4°C and 5.8°C by 2100

5
or between 1.5°C and 4.5°C for a doubling of the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide
(CO2) (also referred to as "climate sensitivity to equilibrium").

Criterion 2: Physically feasible. Scenarios must be made physically plausible (i.e., they must not
violate the fundamental laws of physics). Therefore, the changes in one region must be spatially
compatible with the changes in another region and the world. Furthermore, the combined
variations of different variables (often correlated with one another) must be physically coherent;

Criterion 3: Relevance in impact assessments. The scenarios should show the evolution of a
sufficiently large number of variables at spatial and time scales to allow an impact assessment.
For instance, impact models may need input data on variables such as precipitation, solar
radiation, temperature, humidity and wind speed at spatial scales ranging from global to site-
specific, and at temporal scales ranging from annual averages to daily or hourly values;

Criterion 4: Representative. Scenarios must be indicative of the range of potential future

regional climatic change. This is the only way to estimate a realistic range of possible impacts.;

Criterion 5: Affordability. Scenarios need to be simple to access, interpret and to apply for
impact assessment. A separate scenario development component of many impact assessment
projects specifically addresses this last point. The IPCC Data Distribution Centre (DDC) and this
guidance document are also designed to address this need.

2.4 Type of climate scenarios

In the past, several studies have been done concerning the use of different climate scenarios. The

various scenarios are as follows: Synthetic scenarios, analogue scenarios and scenarios based on

GCM results (Feenstra et al., 1998).

2.4.1 Synthetics Scenarios

Synthetic scenarios are techniques in which specific (or similar) climate elements are modified
by a realistic but arbitrary amount, often using a qualitative understanding of climate model
projections for a region. For example, the base temperature of +1, 2, 3, and 4°C and base
precipitation of 5, 10, 15 and 20 percent might represent different magnitudes of future change.
(Group et al., 2007)

6
The synthetic scenario is very simply applicable to impacts, it is transparent and very easy to
explain by researchers and non-researchers and also has a good ability to capture a large range of
climate change possibilities, giving useful input for assessing the sensitivity of exposure to
climate change. Then, several studies have applied similar synthetic scenarios to examine the
relative sensitivity of units of exposure. The disadvantage of these scenarios is their arbitrariness.
The arbitrary nature is the inconvenience of these scenarios. Other scenarios are not compatible
with the objectives of the uncertainty interval of change (Kusi, 2013).

2.4.2 Analogue Scenarios

In a given region the future climates resemble the recorded climate regimes and are identified by
the construction of analogical scenarios; the records are obtained from former temporal analogs
and a region known as the spatial analog.

The temporal analogues used are based on past information as analogues of the future. There are
two types of analogues: analogues selected from instrumental data and paleoclimatic analogues
that are based on geological data, usually within the last hundred years. The two analogues have
been used to see when world or regional temperatures have been warmer than they are today.
The other climatic parameters in such warm periods are rainfall, wind speed is coupled together
along the temperature profile giving the climate of the scenario. Thus providing a potential
wealth of data on the observed climate that makes it physically plausible and meets criteria 2 and
3 in scenario selection. The major problem with using temporal analogues for climate scenarios
is the lack of evidence that historical climate change is due to an increase in greenhouse gas
concentrations (criterion 1).

Finally, since most of the simulation scenarios over time (except for the oldest and worst
paleoclimatic simulation scenarios) are at the lower part of the expected values for projected
future climate warming, scenarios based on the simulation scenarios alone could breach criterion
4 because it cannot reflect what might happen in the future. Temporal analogues use past
information as an analogue of potential future climates. Such analogues are of two main types:
paleoclimatic analogues based on natural geological data, and analogues that have generally been
selected from historical instrumental data over the past century. Both were selected to indicate
those periods when global (or regional) temperatures are higher than they are today. Then, other
climatic characteristics (such as precipitation, wind speed) are combined during these warm

7
periods. Use the temperature curve to adjust the climate of the scene. This can provide the rich
potential of an observed climate dataset and is therefore physically plausible (conference criteria
2 and 3).

In short, reciprocal spatial analogues have a similar climate now as regions will have in the
future (Bergthorsson et al, 1988). Consequently, the approach is very limited by frequently
lacking a correspondence among other important parameters that are both climatic as well as
non-climatic of the regions.

2.4.3 Scenario from the Global Climate Model (GCM).

According to (Srinivasa Raju and Kumar, 2018) The Earth's weather pattern is the result of
interactions among the different elements of the atmospheric system, including snow, ice, the
Earth's surface, oceans or other waters, along with organisms such as both humans and wildlife.
Human influences such as deforestation and the burning of fossil fuels are also causing changes
in the composition of the atmosphere through various external factors. The result will be a
climatic change that will affect the variability of long-time parameters. Regarding the
greenhouse gases nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide, carbon dioxide, methane, ozone-depleting
substances, and hydrofluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride, they have increased affecting
worldwide emissions in the last 50 years. In recent years, the same trend is expected to continue
in the coming years. Greenhouse gases influence the absorption, diffusion, and release of
radioactivity on the Earth's surface and in the atmosphere.

The global climate model (GCM) is a complex numerical tool with three-dimensional properties.
The GCM uses various climate variables, baseline conditions, boundaries, and structures to
model the Earth's climate. The GCM is being increasingly used to resolve or evaluate
regional/local problems. (Hulme and Brown, 1998). ( Manatsa, Chingombe, and Matarira, 2008 )
(Manatsa, Chingombe, and Matarira, 2008)describes GCM as a numerical solution to one or
more partial differential equations. GCM is based on energy movement, particle impulse, and
energy-saving principles.

The uncertainty in the formulation of the GCM comes from the influence of aerosols. The
parameters of these aerosols in the GCM are different. The starting and limiting conditions of the
individual GCMs, GCM model parameters or structure, uncertainty, future greenhouse gas

8
emissions, and means of concentration. (RCP) leads to meaningful differences between future
climate model simulations (Raje and Mujumdar, 2010).

2.5 Downscaling purpose

While GCMs are valuable predictors, they cannot explain climatic change and the small-scale
heterogeneity of change given their rough resolution. Many of the characteristics of the
countryside, including the scale of climate components like mountains, water bodies, structures,
features of land cover, and coastal convection and breezes, are well below 100-500 kilometers.
These disparities are important for decision-makers requiring knowledge on the following
factors: possible impacts on agricultural production, hydrology, species distribution, etc. ranging
from 10 to 50 kilometers (Trzaska and Schnarr, 2014).

Several approaches are being developed to bridge the gap that exists within GCMs between what
GCMs offer and what society, companies and other interested parties need in decision making.
The deriving of small-scale climate information is based on the supposition that the small-scale
climate system is dependent on the interrelationships between the following factors: the large-
scale atmospheric elements (circulation, temperature, humidity, etc.) and locally specific features
(water bodies, mountain ranges, land surface properties, etc.). It may be able to model these
influences and relate climate to current local weather by using downscaling. It should be noted
that the downscaling mechanism will add more information to the output of the coarse GCM,
making them more realistic information in a smaller range and allowing the contrast and non-
uniformity to be captured in a smaller range than the network.

2.5.1 Dynamical Downscaling

Dynamic degradation relates to the application of the GCM-driven RCM to generate regional
climate simulations. The RCM is analogous to the GCM except that it provides both higher
resolution and more regional detail, allowing for better representation of local landscapes and
possible regional atmospheric processes. The Global Model simulations the overall cycle
response to changes in the composition of the atmosphere through several processes, but due to
the approximate analysis of the model equations, some of them need to be approximated. On the
other hand, in some parts of the world, with a resolution of 25 to 50 km, the RCM is capable of
capturing some of these processes more realistically. The atmospheric data fields that are
simulated by the GCM (e.g. the surface pressure, wind, temperature, and humidity) are

9
introduced in vertical and horizontal circuits. RCM boundaries. These are then processed using
locally specific data and physics-based equations. And obtaining regional climate data. The
major advantage of the RCM is the possibility to model explicitly atmospheric processes and
land cover changes. (Trzaska and Schnarr, 2014).

According to (Manatsa, Chingombe, and Matarira, 2008) the quality of the results of the RCM
also depends on the information provided by the GCM. For example, if the GCM fails to
properly launch storm tracks, there will be errors in the RCM precipitation climate.

Regional Climate Model (RCM)

Research institutions with sufficient computational capacity and technical expertise have
developed the RCM. RCMs are recognized because of their numerical, physical, and technical
aspects. The most commonly used RCMs in climate change downscaling studies include the U.S.
Regional Climate Model, Version 3 (RegCM3); the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM);
the UK Met Office Hadley Center Regional Climate Model, Version 3 (HadRM3); the German
Regional Climate Model (REMO); the Dutch Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO);
the German HIRHAM model that combines high resolution and restricted area dynamics
(MRLRL); and the European Centre in Hamburg (ECHAM). While the above models were
developed mainly in North America and Europe, these models may be adapted for any part of the
world by incorporating appropriate information on terrain, land cover, etc. Thus, several RCMs
may be used in a particular area. The results of downscaling, on the other hand, maybe different
based on the RCM used. While it is recognized that a single KPI is unlikely to give " precise "
outcomes; Consequently, researchers and decision-makers need to use the findings with caution,
mindful of the hypotheses and cautions regarding dynamic downscaling (Trzaska and Schnarr,
2014).

Table 2. 1:Description of the project name and date, area of interest, objective and downscaling
approach used for the African Climate Change Assessment Project

Project Region Purpose Method

CORDEX Africa - Promoting international coordination in Ten
(Coordinated downscaling RCMs
Regional Climate - Promote analysis of regional climate change by

10
 Downscaling local scientists and local users' groups
Experiment) (2009-
present
AMMA West - Understanding and forecasting the West Multi-
African Monsoon Africa African Monsoon (WAM) better RCM
Multidisciplinary - Linking WAM variability to various sectors. Compari
Analysis - Incorporate multidisciplinary research into son.
(2009-present) forecasting and decision making.

2.5.2 Statistical downscaling

Statistical reduction involves the establishment of empirical relationships between large-scale

historical local atmospheric and climatic characteristics. Once a relationship has been identified
and validated, the large-scale future atmospheric conditions predicted by GCM will be used to
predict future local climate characteristics. In other words, large-scale GCM results are used as
predictors to obtain local variables or predictors. Statistical reductions cover a different set of
methods, which differ in the following ways: Complexity and applicability (Wilby et al., 2004;
Trzaska and Schnarr, 2014).

According to (Trzaska and Schnarr, 2014) compared to RCM, which requires complex modeling
of physical processes, statistical reduction methods are less expensive. They are therefore a valid
alternative and often beneficial for those organisations which do not possess the necessary
computing power or technical expertise to carry out dynamic reduction. Contrary to the RCM,
the RCM produces small-scale projections on a 20-50 kilometer spatial scale, while statistical
methods can provide climate information at the scale of a weather station.

Although downscaling is effective, inexpensive and consists of several methods, it includes the
following inherent assumptions:

The first point is called the stationary hypothesis, which assumes the statistical relationship
between predictors and forecasts remains stable in the future. If this relationship based on the
current association will be maintained under unknown future climate conditions. The second
assumption is that the major variables represent the climate system and explain any changes that

11
may occur in the future. The third hypothesis is that the relationship's strength must first be
assessed to see if it is valid.

2.6 Climate change impact on irrigation

Since the economy depends on rain-fed agriculture and livestock production, Burkina Faso, as
well as other Sahelian countries, is particularly vulnerable to climatic change. (Zampaligré,
Dossa, and Schlecht, 2014). There is a lot of evidence to suggest that climate change will have
negative effects on the socio-economic conditions of community sectors, particularly agriculture
(Darwin et al., 1995; Thomas et al., 2004; Risbey, 2008; Müller et al., 2011; Aaheim et al.,
2012; Gosling, 2013)

Agriculture is the largest global consumer of water. According to (FAO, 2014) currently, the
world's irrigated area has grown to 280 million hectares, which represents about 20% of total
arable land. Agriculture is the largest user of water in human activities: irrigation water
abstraction accounts for 69% of total human use of renewable water resources, i.e. about 2700
km3 / year. Burkina Faso's National Adaptation Action Plan (NAPA) identified four sectors
currently considered sensitive to climate change through a participatory process with local
communities: water, agriculture, agro-livestock, and forestry/fisheries (Brown and Crawford,
2008).

The two sensitive sectors that are relevant to this study are water and agriculture.

Although the decrease in the rate of change in precipitation in August was extreme, it reflected
the increase in the rate of change in precipitation in areas used to monthly fluctuations.
According to the country's national adaptation action plan, the reduction of rainfall and
variability was one of the most damaging effects of the climatic change currently observed in
Burkina Faso. Burkina Faso's NAPA team predicts that by the middle of this century, the mean
annual precipitation will decrease significantly, by 3.4% by 2025 and 7.3% by 2050. This will be
accompanied by greater interannual and seasonal variations: July, August are expected to
decrease by 20% to 30%,

compared to the current levels in September and September, while average annual rainfall in
November will increase from 60% to 80%.

12
According to (Sawadogo, 2007) in the event of heavy rains or floods, the variability of rainfall
(such as Sandema rainfall) threatens Burkina Faso, and increased flooding will entail enormous
human and economic costs. In 2007, 33 people were killed and hundreds injured by the floods. It
destroyed 13,000 hectares of land and caused 100,000 tons of cereal losses, for 10 million francs
CFA. Sixty-one dams and pavements were destroyed, while in the agricultural sector, minimum
emissions, runoff and soil erosion, washed crop losses, and farm destruction were reported.

According to (Scientifique and Nationaux, 2019) the total water demands of agriculture in 2016
from the different basins such as (Nakambé, Mouhoun, Liptako, Gourma, and the Common) was
about 1 350 033 000m3 that of Nakanbe was about 314 006 000m3. But with a projection made at
the 2030 deadline, the demand for clay water increases to 2,294,843,000 m3 and that of Nakanbe
to 471,415,000 m3.

The results of (Fischer et al., 2007) suggest that climate change could increase water availability.
There is a shortage in the world, especially in regions that are already suffering from the current
situation, such as the southern Mediterranean, the Middle East, and sub-Saharan Africa. Further
research on regional and global changes in future agricultural irrigation water has been
conducted. (Siebert and Döll, 1999) studied global models of irrigation demand. (Döll, 2002)
compared the impact of current and future climate on irrigated agricultural land using a
framework developed in 2001, and studied the global impact of climate change and changes on
the demand for agricultural irrigation water. The results of (Döll, 2002) show that changes in
rainfall, coupled with increased evaporation demand, increase global irrigation demand, with a
small total variation of about 5% to 8% by 2070. Projected according to the general cycle
model (GCM) Impacts in Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent will increase by about
15%.

2.7 Impact of climate change on soil and water resources

There is a scientific agreement regarding climate change and will continue to change over time
as human activities increase, and that of the increase in greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. The
increase in the world population from day to day and at the same time when our soil and water
resources are threatened by the degradation of natural resources and climate change. During the
assessment of the impact of climate change on agricultural water, it is important to know and
assess the change in soil due to climate change, but the amount of water to be applied for plant

13
growth will depend on the soil's retention capacity. For good irrigation water management and
also to avoid problems related to the environment, it is preferable to manage the soil well so that
water wastage is avoided(Asante, 2009).

The recent result of IPCC has clearly shown that the warming of the climate system is
unequivocal and this can be caused by human and natural activities (Hudson, 2002) Several
scientists have shown that climate change affects the hydrological cycle or water, in particular
precipitation, evapotranspiration, temperature, streamflow, groundwater and surface water.

In Africa, climate change has a multitude of direct and long-term impacts on water resources. Its
impacts are the following droughts, rising sea levels in the estuary countries, drying of rivers,
and poor surface and groundwater quality. The survival of species in many parts of Africa is
threatened by impacts on ecosystems and economic communities and even on health and food
insecurity (Urama and Ozor, 2010).

Water stress and reduced yield are due to high evapotranspiration rates caused by high
temperatures. Not to mention that physiologically, high temperatures induce a higher growth
rate, but the overall growth rate is higher, which quickly causes growth. The reduction in overall
yield is caused by the accumulation of carbohydrates, and this accumulation of carbohydrates is
because the reproductive stage due to high temperatures has a short path.

14
 CHAPTER THREE:

MATERIALS AND METHODS

3.1 STUDY AREA

3.1.1 Location

Bagre is located in eastern Burkina Faso, geographically, it is located between latitude 11o27’04”
N and longitude 0o28’23” W. The department of Bagre is bordered on the South by Togo and
Ghana, on the South -Eastern part by Benin, on the South -Western part by Cote d’Ivoire, on the
North and West by Mali, and the Northeastern part by Niger.

Located in the Centre-East region about 250 km east of Ouagadougou, Bagré depends
administratively on the province of Boulgou, department of Zabré. The rural commune of Barge
is bordered by the communes of Garango-Tenkodogo in the North, Zonsé-Bittou in the South,
Banéa in the East, and Boussouma-Gomboussougou in the West. The department of Bagre has 8
villages. The villages namely; Bagre, Boakla, Dirlakou, Goudayere, Guingale, Sangaboule,
Yambo, and Zabo.

15
Figure 3. 1: The study area
3.1.2 Climate and pluviometry

The study area is located in the Sudanese climate zone characterized by two seasons which are:

• A dry season that extends from October to May with the presence of harmattan, and
including the cold period from November to February
• A short rainy season from May to October characterized by irregular quantities and
rainfall distribution.

According to the ( Master Plan and development of the Bagre Area, 2014), the rains are unevenly
distributed over time and space and the trend is towards a decrease in water levels from south to
north. The climate in this area is influenced by dry harmattan winds and a short rainy (or
wintering) season from June to October, dominated by the monsoon. The rains are unevenly
distributed in time and space. The trend is towards a decrease in rainfall from south to north.

16
The rainfall recorded over the last few decades has increased the study area from the 800-900
isohyets to the range of 700 to 800 mm.

Figure 3. 2: Climatic Map of Burkina Faso showing Bagre

3.1.3 Relief

The relief of the commune of Bagre is characterized by a mild, rugged slope, except for the
main valley drilled by the bed of the Nakambé River (white volta). The entire territory of the
study area has a slightly undulating pattern, dominated by residual rocky topography degraded
by erosion. The relief dominates a vast undulating plain located at an altitude of 50 m. It is a
mild sloping peneplain carved by a network of talwegs and valleys, but only the large Nakambe
(White volta) valley and it’s the major tributaries have alluvial formations (Pole et al., 2016).

3.1. 4 Soil and geology

The project area is located on a peneplain, which is characterized by a monotonous relief in most
cases, with slight gradients. This area is marked by primary to quaternary age formations and
consisting of three main units.
17
 • Terraces and shallows which are recent colluvial-alluvial and alluvial formations
constituting the area of material accumulation.
• The functional surface that includes the glacis, with the interfluves serving as the
transition zone with the rocky knolls and slopes.
• landforms include rocky knolls and armored levels

The whole of the communal territory presents a slightly undulating pattern dominated by residual
rocky reliefs degraded by erosion. These reliefs dominate a vast undulating plain located at an
altitude of 250 m. It is, in fact, a gently sloping peneplain more or less cut by a network of
talwegs and valleys, but only the Nakambé valley and its large tributaries have alluvial
formations. The main ferruginous soils with concretion in the area are:

• Ferruginous soils with concretion;

• Low-evolution erosion soils;
• Colluvial soils with glacis;
• Hydro-morphic soils;
• Brown soils and lithosols.

According to the study by the National Soil Bureau (BUNASOLS), the soils of the area are poor
in organic matter (average rate below 2%) and total nitrogen (<0.09%). This can be explained by
cultivation systems based on extensive techniques, a strong decomposition of organic matter
characteristic of dry tropical environments. This soil is also poorly supplied with assimilable
phosphorus (5 to 20 ppm) and available potassium (10 to 150 ppm).

3.1.5 Vegetation

The natural vegetation of the BAGRE zone varies from savannah to shrub savannah, and the
extent of forest land varies. This vegetation is decreasing due to increased human activity.
Population pressures and major developments such as hydroelectric dams and irrigated areas
have led to the destruction of natural vegetation, as well as erosion due to rainwater runoff,
overgrazing, illegal logging, and bush fires (Pole et al., 2016).

18
3.1.6 Drainage system

The drainage system within the project boundaries includes the Nakanbé watershed. According
to (Pole et al., 2016) the water from the Bagre dam has high turbidity, which is related to the
nature of the soil in the catchment area. The main river flowing through the town is Nakambe
Bagre. The river was formerly known as "ZANGOULA", and the names of the inhabitants refer
to the Canary shape of the rocks, on which noisy waterfalls cascade down. It is on this river with
three tributaries (Tecabo, Dubeghe, and Masiri) that a hydroelectric dam and an irrigation
reservoir were built in 1989. Nakambe is the city's largest river and its source of water
3.1.7 Water resources

3.1.7.1 Hydrographic network

The hydrographical network of the geographical boundaries of the study area consists of the
Nakambé catchment area (34,000 km²), which is very dense but consists of practically all the
rivers. Most dry up in the dry season. The Nakambé, which is the largest watercourse in the
study area, rises at an altitude of 300 m and flows 225 km in Burkina Faso before reaching the
artificial lake of the Volta. It is the second-largest river in the country and flows in a north-south
direction, passes through Bagre, and crosses the Burkina-Ghana border between the villages of
Youda and Magomnoré. It is a temporary watercourse that flows between May and November
and drains a watershed of 58,410 km2. The Nakambé catchment area in the Bagre area is 56.7%
of the total drained area or 33,120 km2.

19
Figure 3. 3: Map fo the hydrographic network of Bagre department
3.1.7.2 Surface water
The main watercourse that crosses the project area is the White Volta. It is on this river that the
hydroelectric dam and a water reservoir for agricultural purposes were built in 1989. Three
tributaries, notably the Cherbo, the Doubégué, and the Massili, have their mouths in the
Nakanbé. In the dry season, only isolated pools remain in the minor bed of the river and its
tributaries. As part of the project, portions of ordinary dirt roads between Bagré Village - Bagré
Ville and Bagré - Bagré Ville and Bagré – Bagré-pôle cross a temporary tributary of the Petit
Bagré dam, which it supplies during the rainy season. Crossing structures will certainly be built
during these crossings. This tributary will require appropriate protection measures during the
execution of the work.

20
3.1.8 Socio-Economic Activities

The Bagre area is an agro-pastoral region. Farming is the dominant activity in the region. It is
traditional majority agriculture whose main production is intended to satisfy the subsistence
needs of household and livestock.

3.1.8.1 Agriculture
In the public utility zone, there are four modes of agricultural production:

Rainfed agriculture: It is the most practical production system in the area. The agricultural area
devoted to rainfed crops is on average about 20000 ha/year. The production method is extensive
and archaic. The main speculations are mainly cherry crops (maize, rainfed rice, etc.), legumes,
oilseeds, and tubers. The average agricultural yields for these rainfed crops are very low: they
vary from year to year, from 0.95 to 1.7 t/ha for maize; 0.80 t/ha for millet; 0.8 to 2.5 t/ha for
white sorghum, 0.8 to 2 t/ha for red sorghum.

Irrigated agriculture: It covers a total developed area of approximately 3,380 ha. This
production method is mainly intended for the production of rice in peasant mode. The
exploitation of this area is irrigated perimeters has shown a general upward trend since the
1990s. This upward trend is accompanied by the development of the rice sector in the region.
The average yield over the entire irrigated perimeter is about 4.5 t/ha/year (Pare and Toe,2011).
Rice production exceeded 25,000 tons in 2010

Lowland agriculture: Lowland areas are composed of valley bottoms, flooded alluvial plains,
glacis, and slopes. The main crop is rainfed rice in the rainy season and market gardening in the
dry season, irrigated by wells. These are wetlands and rich in nutrients. Rice yields are on
average 3 tones/ha/year. In the public utility area, several lowlands have been developed through
different projects. The total area of land used for lowland cultivation is about 1600 ha.

Declining agriculture: Is a very marginal means of production that develops around the dam in
the dry season. There are mainly market gardening crops.

3.1.8.2 Livestock
Livestock is an important part of the socio-economic activity of the populations in the study area.
It contributes significantly to the improvement of crop productivity through the use of manure

21
and the use of harnessed cultivation. Animal products generate commercial activities both within
the country and with Ghana and Togo. The study area is a reception area, a transit area for herds
and flocks, and an area of trade and livestock transhumance par excellence.

3.1.9 Population and size density

According to the population census of 2006, and then updated for the elections of 2013, the
population of the county was 29,164 inhabitants. Applying the growth rate of 2013 which is
3.67% which gives us a total population of 44,236 inhabitants the population density is 77.77 per
km2.

3.1.10 Description of Bagre irrigation Project

The different components of the Bagre project.

3.1.10.1 The hydroelectric dam component
The commune of Bagré is located approximately 240 km from Ouagadougou along the
Ouagadougou-Koupéla Tenkodogo-Bittou axis and 30 km and 50 km respectively from the
borders of Ghana and Togo. The Bagré area was known because of the onchocerciasis pandemic
that was affecting the populations of the area. The Bagré dam was built from 1989 to 1992 and
its commisioning took place in 1994. It has a dike length of 4.3 km and the fetch during flood
periods could be up to 80 km long, with a capacity of 1.7 billion m3 of water. Depending on the
water level, when the water level reaches 235.10 meters, an open spillway begins to discharge
the overflow of water that continues to flow towards Ghana. It is equipped with a 16 MW power
plant consisting of Kaplan-type units that operate concurrently and each produces 8 MW during
high water periods (Kaboré and Sédogo, 2014).

3.1.10.2 The agricultural component

The agriculture component is described as follows. Two irrigation intakes have been built:

• one on the right bank with a potential flow rate of 10 m3/s;

• one on the left bank with a potential flow rate of 28 m3/s.

The volumes discharged from the dam are sufficient to irrigate the 7,320-ha planned for
irrigation in 1982 gravitational, that is:

• Right bank, 3,220 ha irrigated by a 68.5 km long canal with a head flow of 5 m3/s ;

22
 • Left bank, 4,100 ha irrigated by a 52.5 km long canal with a head flow of 7 m3/s.

The surface area of the developments developed between 1980 and 2009 totals 3,380 ha, with
more than 2,500 ha to be developed with the support of the PAFASP (Support program for agro-
sylvo-pastoral production).

3.1.10.3 Other achievements of the project

If at the beginning of the Bagré project, two main components (electricity and agriculture) had
aroused the interest of the State and its partners, it appeared essential to optimize the benefits of
the project by gradually integrating other components and strengthening the socio-economic
environment of the project by building social infrastructure.

In this respect, we can highlight the following main actions presented in the technical sheet on
the Bagré Growth Pole Project and the characteristics of the semi-public company:

• Development of two pastoral areas including the Doubégué/Cherbo (7,125 ha) and the
Niassa (6,382 ha);
• Creation of an aquaculture area of economic interest (PAIE) for the management of the
lake's fish resources;
• Aquaculture development: the Bagré fish farming center is a sub-regional reference
station in terms of the technologies used and the training provided;
• Implementation of several research and development activities for the intensification and
diversification of agro-sylvo-pastoral and fisheries production.

23
3.2 MATERIALS AND METHODS
This chapter focuses on the research materials and methodology adopted in this book. It
discusses the selection criteria used for the site, the types of data to be collected to meet the
specific objectives, and thus the main purpose.

3.2.1 Site selection

The selection of the Bagre irrigation project was made by the fact that the municipality of Bagre
has the biggest dam in this region and the largest in the country. This site was selected based on
the following criteria.

• Availability of data
• The reservoir that does not dry during the dry season

3.2.2 Desk study

Literature review of peer-reviewed journals, technical reports, documents of Bagre pole, DGRE,
and INSD, was done. Another source of information was the internet. This was done to deepen
the knowledge of the subject under study and to develop comprehensive lessons that were
essential to the progress of this research work.

3.2.3 Data collection

For the proper conduct of this work, data were collected from two sources, primary and
secondary sources. The primary data, the different types of crops under irrigation were identified.
There were also consultations with stakeholders and interviews with other irrigation partners,
such as Bagre Pole and farmers, the Ministry of Agriculture and Hydro-Agricultural Amenities
(MAAH), and also the General Directorate of Water Resources (DGRE). Secondary data were
historical meteorological data such as rainfall, temperature, humidity, wind speed, and hours of
sunshine for the study area. These data were collected from the headquarters of the National
Meteorological Agency (ANAM) of Burkina Faso in Ouagadougou and used as baseline data for
climate analysis.

3.2.4 Assessing the current irrigation water demand

The Food and Agriculture Organization’s CROPWAT model is used to estimate the net
irrigation demand (NIR) of the crop. NIR is defined as the amount of water other than soil

24
moisture available in rainfall, in addition to the water that crops must have on irrigated land. The
CROPWAT model is based on the following equation:

𝑁𝐼𝑅 = 𝑘𝑐 𝑥 𝐸𝑇𝑜 − 𝑃𝑒𝑓𝑓 (4.1)

Where, the NIR is the net irrigation requirement (mm/d), the crop coefficient kc (dimensionless),
the potential evapotranspiration ETo (mm/d), and the actual rainfall in Peff (mm/month). The
cultivation coefficient kc depends on the type of crop and the day of the growing season. Peff is
the fraction of total precipitation P (mm) and can be used for agriculture and not for runoff.
Potential evapotranspiration ETo is calculated using the FAO Penman-Monteith equation
(Manual, 2002) below with parameters of temperature, relative humidity, sunshine, and wind
speed.

900 (4.2)
0.408 ∆ (Rn − G) + T + 273 𝑈2 (𝑒𝑠 − 𝑒𝑎)
𝐸𝑇𝑜 =
∆ + γ(1 + 0.34U2)

Where:

ETo: Reference evapotranspiration (mm/day)

Rn: Net radiation at the crop surface (MJ/m2 per day)

G: Soil heat flux density (MJ/m2 per day)

T: Mean daily air temperature at 2 m height (oC)

U2: Wind speed at 2 m height (m/sec)

es: Saturation vapor pressure (kPa)

es-ea: Saturation vapor pressure deficit

Δ: Slope of saturation vapor pressure curve at temperature T (kPa/ oC)

γ: Psychrometric constant (kPa/ oC).

According to (Manual, 2002) The formula uses daily, weekly, ten-year, or monthly calculations
using standard climate recordings of sunlight, solar radiation, temperature, humidity, and wind
speed. The choice of the time step to calculate the ETo is dependent on the aim of the

25
computation, the required accuracy, and the time step of the available climate data. Certain data
are measured at the weather station directly. Other parameters are related to data that is
commonly measured and can be deduced using direct or empirical equations. For the integrity of
the calculation, meteorological data should be measured (or converted to this height) above 2 m
covered by a large area of green grass with no water shortage.

For the calculation of the NIR, the CROPWAT model needs the following parameters

• Crop data: The crop type and planting date. The data for the dates of the different crops
were obtained in the field from farmers and some agronomy technicians of BAGRE
POLE.
• Climate data: Monthly rainfall (mm), Mean monthly maximum and minimum
temperature (oC), Relative humidity (%) Sunshine duration (hours) and wind speed (m/s)

Other parameters (e.g. crop growth stage (days), depletion factor, cultivation coefficient,
maximum rooting depth, yield response function, and crop height) are generated automatically
The CROPWAT model has been incorporated according to FAO Manual 56 (Allen et al., (
1998). The model has a database of these parameters, which are long-term averages of different
crops. Calculate NIR using the current long-term climatic mean (LTA) Terms, 1987-2016
(Climatic data).

Then, the total water abstraction of agricultural water used for irrigation is estimated from the
NIR via the irrigation efficiency parameter (Irreff), which is commonly referred to as GIR (total
irrigation demand), which is an indirect indicator of irrigation water loss.

𝑁𝐼𝑅 (4.3)
𝐺𝐼𝑅 =
𝐼𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑓𝑓
The volume required for irrigation (representing the amount of water drawn from the reservoir)
is obtained by multiplying the total amount of irrigation water used for irrigation by the area of
land under cultivation.

3.2.5 Climate Change scenarios

NorEMS1-RCA4, is the only RCM Regional Climate Model is used for this study. According to
(Nikiema et al., 2017; Okafor et al., 2019) the for the study of climate change in West Africa
specifically in the White Volta Basin there are two regional climate models recommended for
26
climate change studies in the White Volta Basin. The two models are CanEMS2-RCA4 and
NorESM1-RCA4. NorESM1-RCA4 was downloaded from the CORDEX (Coordinated Regional
Reduction Experiment) dataset. NorESM1 uses two different Representative Concentration
Pathways (RCPs) to download from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5),
RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. RCM was corrected using the bias correction method.

According to the latest IPCC report (Physical and Basis, 2013), in the future climate, due to large
regional differences and different levels of confidence, the current variability of warming and
precipitation could increase. However, since the global climate model (GCM) of the coupling
model intercomparison project phase 5 (Overview and Design, 2012) is not consistent in the
direction and degree of change, there is large uncertainty in mean precipitation. In this regard,
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Physical and Basis, 2013) noted that there is
generally a moderate to moderate lack of faith in the reliability of the prediction of regional
rainfall change in Africa until better regional results are obtained, such as through CORDEX.
Therefore, climate models (RCMs) participate in the CORDEX program and can be used in the
West African domain (Sylla et al., 2015) to determine future climate change in the region.
Although each set of models (GCMs and RCMs) has its intrinsic value, the use of RCMs may be
more appropriate due to the complex terrain, large land cover changes and the mesoscale nature
of 'rainfall in West Africa'(Teichmann et al., 2013; Dosio et al., 2014; Sylla et al., 2015). The
higher resolution of CORDEX (50 km vs. 100 km for CMIP5) will facilitate more detailed
information on climate change at the regional/local level. (Nikulin et al., 2012) described the
CORDEX experiment in detail. Also, the results have been fully validated in West Africa
(Gbobaniyi et al., 2014; Ama et al., 2015). For this assessment, a holistic multi-model approach
was used to ensure the robustness of the prediction (Diallo et al., 2012; B., Diallo, and S., 2013;
Haensler, Saeed, and Jacob, 2013; Dyn, Dosio and Jürgen, 2015).

This study was based on the baseline on the following historical data (1986-2016) and the future
data (2030-2060). Bagre is a semi-arid area, according to (Acheampong, Ozor and Owusu, 2014)
For example, in this case, compared to CMIP5, the semi-arid zone is more developed in
CORDEX and occupies most of northern Ghana, while the distance to the south is still extensive
and covers the flattest terrain. For a plausible study, we have chosen RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5. These
two scenarios have been chosen to take into account that the population of the municipality of

27
Bagre, which was 29,164 inhabitants in 2006, will increase to 44236 inhabitants in 2013, which
will mean that there will be newly cultivated areas and also new construction, which has taken
place due to deforestation. In West Africa, CORDEX simulations have been widely validated
(Ama et al., 2015; Nikiema et al., 2017). In this study, future changes in two representative
centralized channels (RCPs) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are
expected: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Moss et al., 2010). RCP8.5 represents a business-as-usual
program and is, therefore, a high-level mandatory program, whereas RCP4.5 envisages a certain
level of greenhouse gas reductions and is, therefore, a medium-level mandatory program. The
observational products used to characterize recent climate conditions and evaluate simulation
results are from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia (Harris et al., 2014).

To better predict the future climate, GCM and RCM are very reliable tools. To obtain good
results and small errors, it is preferable to use a reduced scale and a good correction to minimize
errors. For this reason, bias corrections have been used in this study, as many studies such as
(Park, Kang, and Song, 2012; Yira et al., 2017; Famien et al., 2018) have been done using bias
correction.

linear scaling was used because it adjusts the monthly mean and provides corrected data whose
variability is more consistent with the original RCM data (Phil, (2007)). The adjusted RCM
simulation will perfectly match its monthly mean with the observed value adjustment.

3.2.6 Future irrigation water demand

Estimation of future irrigation demand was made by generating future climatic conditions. The
site uses the same procedures and formulas as the current irrigation needs. To estimate future
evaporation losses, Thornthwaite's formula for evapotranspiration was used. This empirical
formula was chosen because it is dependent on the average temperature and easily available in
this study for future predictions. The formula is generally dependent on temperature and
sunlight. The formula is,

𝐿 𝑁 10𝑇𝑑 𝑎 (4.4)
𝑃𝐸𝑇 = 16 ( ) ( ) ( )
12 30 𝐼
Where,

PET: The estimated potential evapotranspiration (mm/month)

28
Td: Mean temperature is the average daily temperature of the month being calculated T(℃).

N: Is the number of days in the month is calculated

L; Is the average daily daily sunshine hours of the month is calculated

𝑎 = (675 𝑥 10−9 )𝐽3 − (771 𝑥 10−7 )𝐽2 + (179 𝑥 10−4 )𝐽 + 0.492 (4.5)

𝑇 1.514
𝐼 = ∑12
𝑗=1 (5 ) (4.6)

I: Yearly heat index .

3.2.7 Climate adaptation strategies

Field visits were carried out after reconnaissance and comments. Questions were asked to certain
groups of farmers to obtain information on the methods of water use and the different fertilizers
used by the farmers, and the number of hectares used by these farmers each year. Then
interviewed by experts in irrigation and climate change. Finally, adaptation strategies
implemented in orther countries were also reviewed to know those that can be implemented in
the region

29
 CHAPTER FOUR

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

This chapter presents the findings and conclusions of this study. First of all, the validation
results of different models from this study will be discussed in detail here. Besides, the irrigation
of rice crops and the estimation of historical and future water withdrawal from the reservoirs
during the dry season are discussed here. This chapter uses a full scenario and an empirical
downscaling method to study in more detail the predictions of future climate conditions and their
impact on agricultural production under some extreme scenarios. Finally, a list of adaptation
mechanisms that key stakeholders can use to deal with the impacts of climate change is
presented for discussion. This chapter concludes with the limitations of the assessment study.

4.1 Historical water abstraction baseline

The reservoir stores approximately 1.7 billion cubic meters of water. The reservoir is mainly
used for hydroelectric power generation and irrigation during the dry season. However, the
Bagre reservoir is also used for cattle breeding and no data on cattle are collected. The largest
amount of water pumped from the reservoir is mainly for irrigation during the dry season and
supplementary irrigation during the rainy season. The estimated water abstraction takes into
account the main crop rice grown during the dry season. They are based on climate data from
1987 to 2016, taking into account the area of land under cultivation and irrigation efficiency. An
irrigation efficiency of 55% was used in the calculation and this value was chosen because of the
deterioration of the poor maintenance management of drainage channels (Kambou, 2019)

30
 BAGRE RESERVOIR

700,00

600,00
Abstarction mm3)

500,00

400,00

300,00

200,00

100,00

0,00

YEAR

Figure 4. 1: Water abstracted from the Bagre reservoir for rice irrigation in the dry season of
(1997-2010)
According to Figure 4.1, in the planting years (1997-1998) and (2014-2016) of the Bagre
reservoir, the minimum and maximum water abstraction for the planting of three plants were
97.44 Mm3 and 608.58 Mm3, respectively (see Appendix A). The Bagre Scheme recorded a
Long-Term Average (LTA) irrigation water abstraction of 341.84 Mm3. The withdrawal of
irrigation water depends on climatic conditions and the size of arable land. Since temperature is a
factor in evapotranspiration, irrigation water consumption will be high during the warm season,
as crops will need more water to grow.

Figure 4.1 and the analysis above indicate that the amount of irrigated water in the past has not
been a problem, as the total planned irrigated land for the Bagre irrigation is 16,705 hectares, so
enough water is needed for irrigation. Besides, the Bagre reservoir, with a capacity of 1.7 billion
m3, has not been used for irrigation in recent years. The average water abstracted of rice crops in
the Bagre reservoir is 341.84 Mm3.

However, the use of irrigation water may increase in the future due to climate change, the
expansion of arable land, and the increase in domestic water consumption caused by population
growth. And changing lifestyles because of wealth. These future events could prevent the
reservoir from providing enough irrigation water while cultivating all irrigable land.

31
 Avg_ Evap

7,000

6,000
EVAPORATION (MM/DAY)

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0,000
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
MONTHS

Figure 4. 2: Mean daily evaporation for Po (1997-2016)

Figure 4.2, shows the average amount of water extracted from the reservoir by the evaporation
loss of Po for twenty-one consecutive years (i.e., 1997-2016). The area is semi-arid, with a dry
season from November to May, lasting 7 months, with the highest average evaporation in March,
which is 6.00 (mm / day), and the lowest average evaporation in August. Evaporation 3.96 (mm
/day) (see Appendix D).

To determine the amount of water loss due to evaporation, Concerning the evaporation for the
Bagre reservoir, there is no measured data. However, the analysis of evaporation measurements
for the period 1988-2016 from the meteorological station (Po) was obtained by applying
Thornthwaite's equation (1948), which gives an annual average of 2409.18 mm. This value of
evaporation was taken by multiplying it by the total surface of the Bagre reservoir which is 255
km2 which gives 614.34 Mm3 loss by evaporation. To determine the total estimated water
withdrawal (ETWA) during the reference period, water was abstracted from the reservoir for
irrigation and evaporative losses were added. As a result, the ETWA was 1222.92 Mm3. The dry
season in the reference period of the Bagre reservoir. The high evaporation value can be
explained by the temperature during this period, as it is also very high. As can be seen in figure
‘.3, during the rainy season the temperature is over 26 ℃, which means that evaporation is also
important during the rainy season.

32
 T_mean Avg_ Evap

35,0 7,000

Evaporation Avergage (mm/day)

30,0 6,000
Mean Temperature (C)

25,0 5,000

20,0 4,000

15,0 3,000

10,0 2,000

5,0 1,000

0,0 0,000
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Months

Figure 4. 3: Mean daily evaporation and mean temperature

4.2 Current irrigation needs.

The theoretical irrigation quantities for the rice crop were calculated for reference purposes. The
calculation of irrigation requirements is based on planting dates, which were determined through
interviews with growers, extension staff, and climatic conditions from 1995 to 2016. This table
provides detailed information on the growing period of the crop.

Table 4. 1: Growing period of crop and the soil types as used in the CROPWAT model

CROP PLANTING DATE HARVEST DATE SOIL TYPE

Rice November 09 April 08 Black Clay Soil

Other crop characteristics, such as loss factors, coefficients, and maximum root depth, have been
extracted from the FAO manual incorporated into the CROPWAT model (Allen, 1998). The
model contains these databases (contained as a function of crop height, crop area, and soil albedo
(reflectivity), canopy resistance, and soil evaporation, particularly bare soil cultivation
coefficient). These parameters are long-term averages of different crops. Figure 4.4 shows the

33
irrigation demand for rice and the average long-term irrigation demand, long-term agreements,
and temperatures over the period 1997-2010.

irrigation needs of rice

Crop Irriagtion Requirement (mm)

800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

Years

Figure 4. 4:Crop irrigation requirements of rice in the dry season (1997-2010) in Bagre
Crop irrigation requirements vary from year to year. Irrigation demand for rice ranges from
494.1 mm/period to 751 mm/period, and the long-term average (LTA) is 653.51 mm/period
(Appendix B). As shown in Figure 4.4, the theoretical calculation of irrigation requirements for
the rice crop in Annex C should be used as the irrigation baseline. Irrigation requirements are
calculated based on the climatic conditions prevailing during that period, the type of soil used to
grow the plants, and the dates on which the plants were planted (see Table 4.1). This was
determined during interviews with the agronomist in charge. Concerning food, support staff, and
farmers. Some other parameters, such as crop growth stage (days), depletion rate, coefficient,
maximum rooting depth, crop response function, and crop height were automatically generated
and included in the FAO CROPWAT 56 model manual (Allen et al., 1998). These parameters,
which are long-term averages for various crops, are available in the model.

As shown in Figure 4.4, crop irrigation needs vary from year to year. ETo is one of the functions
of crop irrigation demand in the calculation of potential evapotranspiration (Penman-Monteith
formula) and is dependent on monthly climatic data - temperature, relative humidity, wind speed,
and sunlight duration. To calculate the ETo in this study, the maximum temperature was revised

34
annually, and the remaining climate data represented the long-term average (LTA) of the
reference climate from 1997 to 2010, so there was no change. Therefore, changes in
evapotranspiration are the result of changes in temperature. Unlike other irrigation demand
functions, actual rainfall varies from year to year. Therefore, the crop coefficient kc is constant in
different years, so that changes in irrigation demand depend on actual rainfall and potential
evapotranspiration.

irrigation needs of rice T_Mean

800 29,0

700 28,8

Mean_Temperature (℃)
Irrigation needs (mm)

600
28,6
500
28,4
400
28,2
300
28,0
200

100 27,8

0 27,6

Years

Figure 4. 5:Irrigation requirement of rice

Based on rice irrigation needs Figure 4.5 over the last ten years (i.e. 2001 to 2010), it is
recognized that an increase in temperature usually increases evapotranspiration and thus
irrigation requirement. Nevertheless, it has been observed that heavy rains during the crop
growing season tend to reduce the irrigation requirements. For instance, during the growing
season (2000 to 2001), the lower temperature was 28.1 degrees Celsius, resulting in reduced
evapotranspiration, so that total crop demand for that season was reduced to 494.1 mm/year.
However, depending on the season from (2005 to 2006), the temperature will increase, thus
increasing the amount of evapotranspiration, in this case, the demand for rice crops increased
(see Appendix B).

4.3 Climate change scenarios with RCM

The scenarios were created based on baseline climate conditions from 1988-2016.

35
For this part of the study at least four stations should be taken into account to frame the study
area, but for lack of data from the different stations three stations were taken into account.

Table 4. 2:List of stations, and stations locations

Station Longitude Latitude Elevation

Fada 0.35 12.07 292
Manga -1.33 11.6667 286
Po -1.15 11.17 326

4.3.1 Bias correction of RCM

RCMs performs relatively well by imitating observed data. Nevertheless, there are still some
variations that need to be corrected. In the study, a linear bias correction method was used to
correct the RCMs deviation.

4.3.1.1 Temperature
Compared to the observed temperature, the simulated historical temperature of the RCM has an
error. The output of NorESM1 shows that the estimates for Manga, Po, and Fada stations have
changed and that the maximum and minimum temperatures will increase over the next few years.
The following table shows the different values of the monthly correction factor applied to the
highest temperature and summarizes the monthly correction of the maximum and minimum
temperature difference for the Fada, Manga, and Po stations (see Appendix E).

36
 a-Fada a-Fada
50,0 30,0
Max_Temperature (℃)

Min_Temperature (℃)
observed Raw_NorESM1 Corrected observed Raw_NorESM1 Corrected
40,0
20,0
30,0

20,0 10,0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Months Months

B-MANGA -B-MANGA
50 30

MIN_TEMPERATURE (℃)
MAX_TEMPERATURE (℃)

Obs Raw NorESM1 Corrected Obs Raw NorESM1 Corrected

40
20
30

20
10
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
MONTHS MONTHS

C-PO C-PO
MAX_TEMPERATURE (℃)

MIN_TEMPERATURE (℃)
observed Raw_NorESM1 Corrected observed Raw_NorESM1 Corrected

50,0 30,0
40,0
20,0
30,0
20,0 10,0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
YEAR YEAR

Figure 4. 6: Comparison of the maximum and minimum observed, raw and bias-corrected temperatures for NorESM1 for the stations
of (a: Fada, b: Manga, and c: Po)

37
 a
Observed Raw NorESM1 Corrected
250,00
Average rainfall (mm)

200,00

150,00

100,00

50,00

0,00
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Months

b
Obs Raw NorESM1 Corrected
200,0
Average_rainfall (mm)

150,0

100,0

50,0

0,0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Months

c
Obs Rwa NorESM1 Corrected
Average_Rainfall (mm)

250
200
150
100
50
0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Year

38
Figure 4. 7: Comparison of observed data, raw RCM data, and bias-corrected Rainfall data for
the three stations (a: Fada, b: Manga, and c: Po)
4.3.2 Prediction of future climate

According to ( Krinner et al., (2013), it can be seen that on the medium and long term changes in
temperature and precipitation, the reference temperatures for Fada and Manga were uniformly
increased

After the biases were corrected, the future climate has been projected for RCP scenarios 4.5 and
8.5 to 2100. The time base of the study is 1988 to 2005 and the future period is divided into four-
time scenarios of 20-year intervals.

 The 2030s (2021-2040)

 The 2050s (2041-2060)
 The 2070s (2061-2080)
 The 2090s (2081-2100)

For these four time intervals, the objective of the selection is to understand the impact of climate
change on rice cultivation, i.e. to understand the amount of water needed to irrigate the rice crop
in each given time interval.

4.3.2.1 Temperature change

After correcting for the bias, for scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the maximum and minimum
temperatures are expected until 2100. The maximum and minimum temperatures for the RCM
for both stations are increasing. The average temperature increase in the RCM study area for the
RCP4.5 scenario is 0.5°C/year, and the average temperature increase in the RCP8.5 scenario
RCM area is 0.54°C/year. Figure 4.8, shows the projection of the maximum and minimum
temperatures predicted by the NorESM1 at the Fada station.

The mean temperature increases for the respective stations' Manga and Po varies from
0.4°C/year to 0.5°C/year for RCP4.5 and 0.51°C/year to 0.6°C/year for RCP8.5.

39
 a
45,0
Max & Min_ Temperature (℃)

y = 0.0329x - 30.646
40,0 R² = 0.6628

RCP4.5
35,0
y = 0.0131x + 9.4797 RCP8.5
R² = 0.2621
RCP4.5
30,0
y = 0.0481x - 74.393 RCP8.5
R² = 0.9061
25,0 Linear (RCP4.5)
y = 0.0171x - 11.343 Linear (RCP8.5)
R² = 0.5024
20,0 Linear (RCP4.5)
Linear (RCP8.5)
15,0
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

years

b
45,0
Max & Min_ Temperature (℃)

y = 0.0323x - 29.599
40,0 R² = 0.6658

RCP4.5
35,0 y = 0.0131x + 9.4797 RCP8.5
R² = 0.2621
RCP4.5
30,0
y = 0.0464x - 70.825
RCP8.5
R² = 0.8965
25,0 Linear (RCP4.5)

y = 0.0171x - 11.343
Linear ( RCP8.5)

20,0 R² = 0.5024 Linear (RCP4.5)

Linear (RCP8.5)
15,0
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
years

40
 c
45
Max & Min_ Temperature (℃)

y = 0.0129x + 10.183
R² = 0.2579
RCP4.5
40
RCP8.5
35
y = 0.0327x - 30.168 RCP4.5
R² = 0.697
30 RCP8.5
y = 0.0473x - 73.978
R² = 0.9077
25 Linear (RCP4.5)

y = 0.0165x - 11.261 Linear (RCP8.5)

20
R² = 0.4553
Linear (RCP4.5)
15
Linear (RCP8.5)
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Years

Figure 4. 8: Projected maximum and minimum temperature for ( a: Fada, b: Manga and, c: Po )
station
According to Figure 4.8, the Fada station is used to graphically compare the mean maximum
temperature of the RCM in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios during the years 2020, 2040, 2060
and 2080 with the reference temperature (1988-2016). It was noted that the mean annual
temperature was gradually increasing from 0.8°C to 1.5°C, but that the mean temperature in
2070 was decreasing by -0.1°C.

For RCP8.5 the annual average temperature for Fada was rising steadily from 0.9°C to 2.8°C.
Using Manga stations based on reference temperatures, the use of RCP4.5 will gradually
increase from 0.8°C to 1.5°C between 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090. For the RCP8.5 scene, the
temperature gradually increased from 1.0°C to 2.9°C. For the Po station, the future 2030, 2050,
2070 and 2090 data are compared with the reference temperature data. In the RCP4.5 scenario,
the temperature of the RCM gradually increased from 1.8°C to 2.5°C, while the temperature of
the RCP8.5 gradually increased from 1.7°C to 3.6°C.

41
 a_R C P 4.5 a_R C P 8.5
45,0 45,0

Max_Tmp BSL Max_Tmp BSL

40,0 40,0
Min_Tmp BSL Min_Tmp BSL

TEMPERATURE(℃)
TEMPERATURE(℃)

35,0 Max_Tmp 2030 35,0 Max_Tmp 2030

Min_Tmp 2030 Min_Tmp 2030
30,0 30,0
Max_Tmp 2050 Max_Tmp 2050
25,0 25,0 Min_ Tmp 2050
Min_ Tmp 2050

20,0 Max_Tmp 2070 20,0 Max_Tmp 2070

Min_ Tmp 2070 Min_ Tmp 2070
15,0 15,0
Max_Tmp 2090 Max_Tmp 2090

SEP
JAN
FEB

APR
MAY
JUN

NOV
AUG

OCT
MAR

JUL

DEC
Min_ Tmp 2090 Min_ Tmp 2090
YEARS MONTHS

b _RCP4.5 b _R C P 8.5
45,0 45,0
Max.Tmp BSL Max.Tmp BSL
40,0
40,0 Min.Tmp BSL Min.Tmp BSL
35,0

TEMPERATURE (℃)
TEMPERATURE(℃)

35,0 Max.Tmp 2030 30,0 Max.Tmp 2030

Min.Tmp 2030 25,0 Min.Tmp 2030
30,0 20,0
Max.Tmp 2050 Max.Tmp 2050
15,0
25,0 Min.Tmp 2050 Min.Tmp 2050
10,0
Max.Tmp 2070 Max.Tmp 2070
20,0 5,0
Min.Tmp 2070 0,0 Min.Tmp 2070
15,0
FEB

APR
MAR

AUG
JUL

DEC
JAN

SEP

NOV
JUN
MAY

OCT
Max.Tmp 2090 Max.Tmp 2090
J A NF E BM A RA P RM A YJ U NJ U LA U GS E PO C TN O VD E C
MONTHS Min.Tmp 2090 MONTHS Min.Tmp 2090

42
 c_R C P 4.5 c_R C P 8.5
45,0 45,0

Max.Tmp BSL Max.Tmp BSL

40,0 40,0
Min.Tmp BSL Min.Tmp BSL
TEMPERATURE (℃)

TEMPERATURE (℃)
35,0 Max.Tmp 2030 35,0 Max.Tmp 2030
Min.Tmp 2030 Min.Tmp 2030
30,0 30,0
Max.Tmp 2050 Max.Tmp 2050
25,0 Min.Tmp 2050 25,0 Min.Tmp 2050

20,0 Max.Tmp 2070 20,0 Max.Tmp 2070

Min.Tmp 2070 Min.Tmp 2070
15,0 15,0
Max.Tmp 2090 Max.Tmp 2090
Min.Tmp 2090 Min.Tmp 2090
MONTHS MONTHS

Figure 4. 9: Monthly mean max and min temperature for the year 2030,2050,2070 and 2090 based NorEMS1 under RCP4.5 and
RCP8.5 a: Fada, b: Manga and, c: Po

43
4.3.2.2 Precipitation change

shows the mean annual precipitation for NorESM1 for the entire study area for the Fada station.
The tendency of increasing precipitation is visible in both scenarios. It is noted that with the
RCP4.5 scenario we have a consequent decrease in the years to come. But with scenario RCP8.5
there is also a decrease in the coming years, with this scenario in the year 2035 there will be
more precipitation which will reach the value 1677.22mm. For the other two stations, Manga and
Po, for the Po station with the RCP4.5 scenario, the trend is constant, but with the RCP8.5
scenario, the trend increases in the coming years and will reach heavy precipitation of 1210.89
mm in 2054. It can be deduced that with the Manga station using both scenarios, there is almost
the same trend, in 2090 with the RCP4.5 scenario there will be a real change in the year with a
value of 2570.89 mm and also the RCP8.5 scenario will have its peak in the year 2086 with
2333.25 mm.

In conclusion, the Manga station has recorded more precipitation than the other two stations in
the coming years.

(a-Fada)

1800 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 Linear ( RCP4.5) Linear (RCP8.5)

1600

1400
Rainfall (mm)

1200

1000

800

600

400

200
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Years

Trend-falling

44
 (b-Manga)
2700
RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 Linear (RCP 4.5) Linear (RCP 8.5)
2200
Rainfall (mm)

y = 7.439x - 14246
R² = 0.2204
1700

1200

700 y = 6.0748x - 11485

R² = 0.2122

200
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Years

Trend-increqsing

(c-Po)
RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 Linear (RCP 4.5) Linear (RCP 8.5)
1400

1200 y = 3.1501x - 5597.6

R² = 0.1344
Rainfall (mm)

1000

800

600 y = 0.7497x - 752.05

R² = 0.0156
400

200
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
Trend-increqsing
Figure 4. 10: Predicted average annual precipitation of NorESM1 for (a: Fada, b: Manga and, c:
Po ) station
Figure 4.10, shows the simulated future climate in the periods 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090
relative to the reference period (1988-2016).

The projection of the future maximum temperatures generally followed-closely the trend-pattern
of the baseline temperature Figure 4.10, although there are a few variations with some monthly
projections which are expected about historical trends (Appendix G). Example is the
increase in the trend of February values across all the time slices as compared to that of the
baseline.

45
 a_RCP4.5 a_RCP8.5

BSL 2030 2050 2070 2090 BSL 2030 2050 2070 2090
250,0 250,0

200,0 200,0

Rainfall (mm)
Rainfall (mm)

150,0 150,0

100,0 100,0

50,0 50,0

0,0 0,0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Months Months

b_RCP4.5 b_ RCP8.5
BSL 2030 2050 2070 2090
BSL 2030 2050 2070 2090
400,0 400,0
350,0 350,0

Rainfall (mm)
Rainfall (mm)

300,0 300,0
250,0 250,0
200,0 200,0
150,0 150,0
100,0 100,0
50,0 50,0
0,0 0,0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Months Months

46
 c_RCP4.5
BSL 2030 2050 2070 2090

300

250
Rainfall (mm)

200

150

100

50

0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Months

c_RCP8.5
BSL 2030 2050 2070 2090

300,0
250,0
Rainfall (mm)

200,0
150,0
100,0
50,0
0,0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Months

Figure 4. 11: Monthly rainfall for the year 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090 under RCP4.5 and
RCP8.5 ( a: Fada, b: Manga and, c: Po )
According to Appendix F and Figure 4.11, under scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the
precipitation at the three weather stations (Fada, Manga, and Po) is different. First, at the Fada
station, the precipitation at the two different scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 is reduced. For
RCP4.5, in percentage terms, rainfall increased (from 12.93 to 24.33%) and for RCP8.5 rainfall
increased from (0.20 to 14.85%), in terms of rainfall amounts for RCP4.5 precipitation decreased
(109.9 to 211 mm), and reduced by (1.7 to 126.2 mm) for RCP8.5, compared to the reference
value of 849.9 mm. Then, as for the manga station, there is a decrease in rainfall over the years
2030 for the two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, both scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 fell by
47
7.33% and 12.43% respectively, while in the other years 2050, 2070 and 2090 rainfall increased
in both cases. In percentage terms, the rainfall increase on RCP4.5 is (2.26 to 30.89%) and the
rainfall increase on RCP8.5 is (4.69 to 38.38%), in terms of rainfall we have (21 to 287.9 mm)
for RCP4.5 and (43.7 to 357.7 mm) for RCP8.5 compared to the reference rainfall value of
932.1mm.

Finally, for Po stations, there was a reduction in the first two years (i.e. 2030 and 2050) on
RCP4.5, a 13.57% reduction in 2030, and a 12.79% reduction in 2050. On the same RCP4.5
scenario, there is an increase of (0.22 to 14.79%) for the other year 2070 and 2090. However, in
scenario RCP8.5, there is a rainfall decrease of (6.26 to 20.69%) in terms of rainfall, which is
(63.6 to 210 mm) compared to the reference rainfall which is 1014.8 mm.

4.4 Future irrigation needs

Based on the future climatic conditions predicted by the RCM, the irrigation needs of the major
crop rice was calculated based on the following two conditions: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 crops for
the years 2030,2050,2070 and 2090 for the three different stations (Fada, Manga, and Po).
Different climatic conditions in the future and baseline scenarios will result in different net
demand for irrigation water for the major rice farms in the study area. The results in Table 4
indicate that future changes in temperature and precipitation will affect the net demand for
irrigation water for crops and then the impact of climate change. Table 5 shows the percentage
change in net irrigation water demand compared to the baseline for the different three stations
(Fada, Manga, and Po).

A rough comparison (Fada, Manga, and Po) of the percentage change in irrigation demand across
all stations shows that the percentage change in rice planting is almost the lowest among Po
stations. Climate change scenario, but this does not mean that rice planting at the Po station is
least affected by climate change, as the lowest percentage change among all the cropping stations
is due to adaptation to climate change. With the Po station, rice is less affected by climate
change. Regardless of the future RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, according to future predictions,
rice will be the most affected by climate change. The first scenario is RCP4.5, which predicts
that irrigation demand will increase by 119.4 mm/period, 94.6 mm/ period, 64.9 mm/ period and
-22.8 mm/ period in 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090, respectively. In 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090,
respectively; as shown in Table 5.1, comparing RCP4.5 with other scenarios RCP8.5 and rice

48
planting at other sites, as shown in Table 5.3, in 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090 In the year, rice
irrigation at the Po station will increase by 131.8 mm / period, 124.4 mm / period, 53.3 mm /
period and 63.3 mm / period, respectively. In the prediction part of scenario RCP8.5, it was
noted that in 2090, with three sites (Fada, Manga, and Po), rice cultivation under this scenario
will require a large amount of irrigation water RCP4.5. It appears that the increase in future
climate conditions in the year 2090 indicates that most crops will require irrigation water for
production. During this year, crops will need a lot of water. This may be due to this year's
extreme climate change mentioned in section 5.3.

It may be generally concluded from these projections that higher temperatures and changes in
precipitation will affect crop evapotranspiration, which in turn will affect crop water demand,
and thus net irrigation demand (NIR). In the RCP4.5 scenario, important changes in net irrigation
demand can affect the yield and the physiological and nutritional quality of rice crops, as
predicted by RCP4.5. Under different climate change scenarios and periods, the net demand for
irrigation water varies between different time intervals.Table5.4 shows, the net demand for rice
cultivation via the Fada station will increase between 19.76% and 51.51%. The corresponding
net demand for rice cultivation will increase respectively for Manga station and Po station, the
demand for rice irrigation water will be increased between 15.81% and 45.46% for Manga
station, and about 5.34% and 13.20% for Po station.

49
Table 4. 3:Impact of Climate Change on Net Irrigation Water Requirements of the three crops, (mm/period) in future climate
Scenarios

(1988-2016) 2030 2050 2070 2090

Stations Crop Baseline RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5

Fada 1003.6 1343.4 1201.9 1405.9 1232 1319.8 1231.9 1256.9 1236.3
Rice
Manga 1000.2 1287.4 1283.8 1334.4 1409.6 1239.8 1339.7 1158.3 1454.9

Po 998.7 1118.1 1130.5 1093.3 1123.1 1063.6 1052 975.9 1062

Table 4. 4:Precentage Change (%) in Net Irrigation Water Requirement of the three crops between Climate scenarios

(1988-2016) 2030 2050 2070 2090

Stations Crop Baseline RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5

Fada 0.0 33.86 19.76 40.09 22.76 51.51 22.75 25.24 23.19
Rice
Manga 0.0 22.71 28.35 33.41 40.93 23.96 33.94 15.81 45.46

Po 0.0 11.96 13.20 9.417 12.46 6.50 5.34 -2.28 6.34

50
4.5 Future irrigation water abstraction scenarios
Section 4.4 allows future climatic conditions to be estimated, and it is also possible to estimate
the amount of water drawn from the Bagre reservoir to plant rice in the dry season in three
seasons, which takes place at the three different stations (Fada, Manga, Po) and the estimated
evaporation loss in the region. For this reason, due to two scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,
different climatic conditions may arise. These scenarios provide an overview of how climate
change will affect the reservoir during the abstraction. For future irrigation needs, two extremes
are considered when estimating water abstraction.

The first scenario is based only on the largest historical area under rice cultivation during the
reference period (1997-2010), (see Appendix E), as these reasonable areas are to be irrigated in
the future on agricultural land with the different stations (Fada, Manga, Po). The second scenario
is also considering the total irrigable area allocated to agriculture due to the already launched
extension of the area in the coming years, considering the irrigation of rice plantations only in
2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090. Irrigation efficiency in these scenarios is assumed to be the same as
in the reference period (55%), and when calculating the impact of climate change, it is assumed
that the irrigation area in 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090 will remain at the same level.

4.5.1 Future cultivation based on maximum land areas for rice

Currently, the total area under irrigation is 5678 ha. The capacity of the Bagre reservoir is 1700
Mm3. The main functions of the Bagre reservoir are irrigation and hydroelectricity. The
maximum volume of water required for hydropower is 1720Mm3, and the minimum volume of
water is 318Mm3. There is no information on the total amount of water allocated for irrigation
and evaporation.

Figure 4. 12 shows the abstraction of future water for irrigation of the Bagre reservoir for rice
cultivation using three different stations (Fada, Manga, and Po) over the total historical area of
cultivation during the dry season. Based on the historical water abstraction shown in (Appendix
B). The total amount of water abstraction by rice cultivation and the loss by evaporation of water
from the Bagre Reservoir totaled 1222.92 Mm3. In Figure 4.12, based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
using data from three different stations (Fada, Manga, and Po), it is estimated that future
irrigation water consumption will be lower than historical water consumption.

51
In comparison with the future water abstraction for rice irrigation, with the three different
stations (Fada, Manga, Po) considering the historical total area, the results of the future dry water
abstraction (see Appendix H) are as follows.

The percentage of water abstraction for rice cultivation and evaporation with the three different
stations (Fada, Manga, and Po) using scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are: Using the Fada station
with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 the amount of water abstraction for rice cultivation and evaporation
varies between (54.99 – 56.13%) of the total reservoir capacity for RCP4.5, with the RCP8.5
scenario the volume varies between (54.71 – 57.11%) of the total reservoir capacity. For the
Manga station, the total volume of water abstraction from rice cultivation and reservoir
evaporation varies between (51.10 – 53.66%) of the total reservoir capacity for RCP4.5 and
(48.46 - 52.98%) of the total reservoir capacity for the RCP8.5 scenario. with the Po station, the
abstraction volume of rice crop irrigation water and evaporation from the reservoir varies
between (49.63 – 51,48%) of the total capacity of the Bagre reservoir for RCP4.5 and (49.87 –
51.78%) of the total capacity of the Bagre reservoir for RCP8.5.

Figure 4.12, shows the estimated future irrigation abstraction from the Bagre reservoir for rice
irrigation with the three stations (Fada, Manga, and Po) at the time of the maximum cultivated
land area between 1997 and 2011. On the three different stations and the two scenarios RCP4.5
and RCP8.5, the extraction of irrigation water for rice and evaporation from the reservoir is not
below the irrigation threshold, which is 81.29% of the reservoir capacity.

52
 (a)
Irrigation Abs Evap_loss Irrigation Treshold Res_Capacity

1800
1600
Water Abstraction (Mm3)

1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5
2030 2050 2070 2090

(b)
Irrigation Abs Evap_loss Irrigation Treshold RES_Capacity

1800,00

1600,00
Water Abstration (Mm3)

1400,00

1200,00

1000,00

800,00

600,00

400,00

200,00

0,00
RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5
2030 2050 2070 2090

53
 (c)
Irrigation Abs Evap_loss Irrigation Treshold Res_Capacity

1800,00
Water Abstraction (Mm3)

1600,00

1400,00

1200,00

1000,00

800,00

600,00

400,00

200,00

0,00
RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5
2030 2050 2070 2090

Figure 4. 13: Evaluation of future irrigation abstractions from the Bagre reservoir for rice
irrigation for the three stations ( a: Fada, b: Manga and, c: Po ) at the time of the maximum
cultivated land area between 1997 and 2011
Otherwise, after analyzing Figure 4.12 based on the three different sites (Fada, Manga, and Po)
and scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 based on two climate change scenarios, rice irrigation water
is expected to increase and exceed the irrigation threshold. This indicates that under these
extreme conditions, the water reservoir may not be sufficient because the irrigation needs of rice
crops may not be satisfied, since the use of these crops under these extreme conditions will harm
other water user sectors, such as domestic water supply and livestock. Evaporation control
should be encouraged, such as tree planting along the watercourses and water conservation.

4.5.2 Future rice-based cropping in all irrigable areas of the reservoir

Currently, the total area under irrigation is 5678 ha. According to ( Daré et al., ( 2019 ) the
surface area, the status of the irrigated perimeters downstream of the Bagré Dam is (6260 for
farmers and 10445 for agro-entrepreneurship), which gives a total of 16705 ha.

In this extreme scenario, it was considered that rice cultivation on the entire area being extended,
which is 16705 ha, consumes more water for its cultivation than the other crops of the Bargepole

54
project during the dry season. Also, many large entrepreneurs have started growing rice in the
area, as rice cultivation is very favorable on the Bargepole irrigation system. Figure 4.13, shows
the following time interval at three different sites (Fada, Manga, and Po), where rice is planted
throughout the Bagre irrigable area. Figure 4.13, shows rice cultivation on the total area irrigated
with three different stations (Fada, Manga, and Po) with both scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 over
time intervals.

(a)
Irrigation Abs Evap_loss Irrigation Treshold Res_Capacity

1800
Water Abstraction (Mm3)

1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5
2030 2050 2070 2090

(b)
Irrigation Abs Evap_loss RES_Capacity Irrigation Treshold

1800,00
Water Abstraction (Mm3)

1600,00
1400,00
1200,00
1000,00
800,00
600,00
400,00
200,00
0,00
RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5
2030 2050 2070 2090

55
 (c)
Irrigation Abs Evap_loss Irrigation Treshold Res_Capacity

1800,00
Water Abstraction (Mm3)

1600,00
1400,00
1200,00
1000,00
800,00
600,00
400,00
200,00
0,00
RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5
2030 2050 2070 2090

Figure 4. 14:Evaluation of future irrigation abstractions from the Bagre reservoir for rice
irrigation with the three stations (a: Fada, b: Manga, and c: Po) at the time of the total cultivated
land area
Using the three stations (Fada, Manga, and Po) it can be deduced that climate change is having
an impact on the Bagre reservoir, as the 81.29% threshold has been exceeded by the future
abstraction for irrigation and evaporation.

As seen in ( Appendix H ) On average, using scenario RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with the three
stations (Fada, Manga, and Po), it can be deduced from Figure 4.13, that the threshold has been
exceeded with each of these stations and each of these scenarios. Firstly, with the Fada station,
the abstraction water of irrigation and evaporation exceeds the irrigation threshold using the
following scenarios, the RCP4.5 scenario exceeds by (0.08 – 3.46%) and the RCP8.5 scenario
exceeds between (-0.8- 6.35%), which represents a volumetric variation of about (1.12 Mm3-
47.79 Mm3) for the RCP 4.5 scenario and (-11.06- 87.73 Mm3 ) for the RCP8.5 scenario.

Secondly, based on the Manga station, it can be seen that the amount of irrigation water will
decrease in 2030; using the two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, it can be deduced that the
irrigation threshold will not be reached, which means that there has been heavy rainfall in terms
of volume; there will be a decrease of 19.23 Mm3 for RCP4.5. Contrary to the other years 2050,
2070 and 2090, there will be an increase on both sides, of (4.94 - 7.88%) for RCP4.5 and (1.82 -
5.42%) above the irrigation threshold, which in terms of volume represents an increase of (68.21

56
- 108.88 Mm3 ) compared to the irrigation threshold with RCP4.5 and (19.02 - 74.92%) with
RCP8.5.

Finally, concerning the Po station, it can be seen that the amount of irrigation and evaporation
water from the reservoir used for rice cultivation has decreased and will not exceed the irrigation
threshold in the RCP4.5 scenario. In the different years, the volume and size of 2030, 2050, 2070
and 2090 vary from (0.18 Mm3 to 92.71 Mm3). In contrast to the RCP8.5 scenario, which only
considers the year 2030, the amount of irrigation water has decreased by 80.79 Mm3. Otherwise,
the amount of water extracted from irrigation and the evaporation loss from the Bagre reservoir
will increase above the irrigation threshold between (9.17 Mm3 to 14.67 Mm3 .) in the 2050s,
2070s, and 2090s. Bagre-Pole managers may consider planting crops that consume less water
during the dry season and try to control the daily water consumption of farmers.

5.6 Climate adaptation measures

Consulting scientific research in areas with common characteristics and discussing with some of
the main participants in agricultural and irrigation practices (e.g. Institute for the Environment
and Agricultural Research (INERA), in search of feasible adaptation strategies and measures, it
is strongly recommended to develop a regional strategy for this project, as it is important at the
regional level. The West African Agricultural Framework on Climate Change and the Burkina
Faso Climate Change Policy should be adopted.

At present, there is no clear policy on climate strategy. It has been recognized that over the years,
due to changing climatic conditions, farmers have found ways to adapt to drought and even
floods. Field interviews show that farmers use mulch and grow short-leaved vegetables to
withstand drought. Considering that people cannot adapt to climate change until they understand
the activities that cause climate change, adaptation measures should include activities such as
providing information on climate change. climate change and its potential impacts, which can
raise public awareness or encourage people to consider adapting to climate change. On this basis,
many adaptation measures have been proposed.

The introduction of new crop types, varieties, and hybrids will help provide crop options that are
more adapted to temperature, humidity, and other factors related to climate change. National
research institutes, such as the Institute of Environment and Agriculture (INERA), have been
involved in the development of several plant varieties that are more resistant to climatic

57
conditions (such as high temperatures or drought). However, farmers need to be encouraged to
choose plant varieties that will be able to withstand extreme weather conditions.

In Bagre province, adaptation to climate change in the agricultural system requires greater
adaptability, which can withstand both excess waters caused by increased rainfall and water
scarcity caused by drought. Both of these challenges are emerging in the sector and may be
exacerbated in the future by climate change. The use of organic materials is one of the main
elements to solve these two challenges. Soil structure is improved and stabilized by organic
matter, which allows the soil to absorb a lot of water without causing surface runoff, which can
lead to soil erosion and further downstream flooding. During long periods of drought, organic
matter may also increase the soil's water absorption capacity.

But farmers prefer to use inorganic fertilizers as nutrients can be more easily released. The use of
organic matter rich in inorganic fertilizers should be encouraged to reduce the impact of climate
change.

Protective crops as alfalfa have to be grown on bare soil. By maintaining a permanent plant
cover, the organic matter content of the soil may increase as well, reducing the effects of
flooding, soil erosion, drought, wind, and heavy rainfall. Vegetative cover can protect the soil
from high temperatures, and loss through evaporation that can reduce crop water requirements by
as much as 30%. Mulching should be encouraged.

Technology and good management practices should help to distribute and absorb the production
risks associated with climate change. Due to system losses and poor maintenance of drainage
channels, most irrigation water cannot reach the crops. During the field visit, some farmers use
twice the amount of water that should be used because they believe it will allow the plant to
produce more. Irrigation methods in the area should be improved by knowing the farmers'
farming methods and how to determine if they have irrigated the fields.

Some methods of water storage can be used, like runoff or rainwater retention, to store sufficient
water during the rainy season for use during dry periods. Currently, farmers irrigate crops every
other day, and some even irrigate twice a day in the morning and the evening because they are
afraid of not having much during the dry season. After all, hydropower needs a certain amount of
water to run the turbines, which leads them to over-irrigate their crops. In light of reduced

58
rainfall and increased evaporation, the current irrigation plan should be modified to help increase
water retention.

Switching the operating environment requires production choices, such as planting, spraying, and
harvesting, to make the most of the variable length of growing seasons and the resulting
variations in temperature and humidity. Such adaptation includes crop scheduling, irrigation,
harvesting, mulching, planting, seeding, and tillage. Modifying the timing of these agricultural
practices can help to optimize production during the growing season and prevent heat stress and
moisture deficits.

4.7 Limitation of the study

Concerning the limitations of the study, there is a lack of research on climate change on the
Bagre dam and even on the Bagre irrigation area as well, The assumptions and limitations
surrounding the study are listed below to provide further details on the results.

4.8 Overall limitation of the study

The study supposes that future weather changes are caused by climate change alone. No other
factors of interest were considered, such as inter-annual and multi-year changes. These factors
need to be further analyzed as they may influence future weather trends, exacerbate, and enhance
the impact of climate change.

Future changes in planting dates could not be predicted when modeling future irrigation needs.
Insufficient meteorological data of the study area as it is the data of the surrounding stations
taken with the advice of the technicians of the National Meteorological Agency which makes it
worrying.

59
 CHAPTER FIVE

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1 Conclusion
The Bagre reservoir with its capacity of 1700 Mm3 has two main objectives which are irrigation
and hydroelectricity. The historical water withdrawal for irrigation of rice cultivation from the
dam varies from 97.44 Mm3 to 608.58 Mm3, during the dry season the water withdrawal for rice
cultivation is less than the maximum storage capacity of the Bagre reservoir. Besides, the total
loss of water by evaporation during the year is estimated at 2409.18 mm in terms of volume,
making a total of 614.34 Mm3 in this semi-arid region, the total historical water abstraction
estimate is 1222.92 Mm3, which represents 71.94% of the total storage capacity of the reservoir.

For future climate projections with RCM under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 using the three stations
(Fada, Manga, and Po) give the following results. First of all, the Fada station in the RCP4.5
scenario gives a temperature variation of 0.8°C to 1.5°C from 2030 to 2090 but with regression
of -0.1°C for 2070, based on the RCP8.5 scenario there is a temperature variation of 0.9°C to
2.8°C. Then, the temperature trend with the Manga station has a range of 0.8°C to 1.5°C with the
RCP4.5 scenario and 1.0 °C to 2.9 °C with the RCP8.5 scenario. Finally, with the Po station, the
RCP4.5 scenario shows a variation from 1.8 °C to 2.5 °C and from 1.7°C to 3.6°C with the
RCP8.5 scenario. With the projections into the future, the results show a variation in rainfall with
the 3 stations (Fada, Manga, and Po) under RCP4.5.

Under the two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the future years 2030, 2050 and 2090 will be
reduced in line with the rainfall study reference (1988-2016), with a percentage reduction of
(12.93 to 24.33%) for RCP4.5 and (0.20 to 14.85%) for RCP8.5. As for Manga station, there will
be a decrease of 7.33% for RCP4.5 and 12.43% for RCP8.5 for the year 2030. The increase in
rainfall with Manga station will be (2.26 to 30.89%) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from (4.69 to
38.38%) for the years 2050, 2070 and 2090. For Po station under both scenarios RCP4.5 and
RCP8.5, there will be a reduction of in the year 2030 and 2050 this reduction is 13.57% in the
year 2030 and 12.79% in the year 2050 under RCP4.5, with RCP8.5 the rainfall reduction will be
6.26% in the year 2030 and 20.69% in the year 2050.

60
However, with the case of maximum cultivation with the historical areas from 1997 to 2010
using rice cultivation in the whole irrigated area, the water extraction from rice irrigation and the
evaporation losses does not reach the irrigation threshold.

But using the extreme case, the rice will be cultivated on the entire surface of 16705 ha, the
threshold of irrigation will be exceeded by (0.8 to 6.35%) and (1.3 to 7.88%) for Fada and
Manga respectively. For Po station, the threshold will not be reached.

This means that additional water resources would be needed to cover the unmet irrigation
demand for rice cultivation only on the total irrigable surface in the future to meet the demand
for electricity as the Bagre reservoir has two major objectives: irrigation and hydroelectricity.
Therefore, the reservoir would not have the capacity to support other sectors of the community,
and the demand for electricity will not be satisfied.

5.2 Recommendation
• Research on climate variability from year to year and from decade to decade leading to
climate change should be considered in future research.
• As future temperatures and precipitation rise and fall, tolerance to adverse weather
conditions should be increased, which should lead farmers to grow tolerant crops.
• In addition to being educated, farmers should be encouraged to take measures to adapt to
climate change through agroforestry, soil, and water management, such as the protection
of organic fertilizers.
• Other sources of water used for crop irrigation, such as rainwater, should be encouraged.
Cultivation of water harvested during the rainy season and use of groundwater.
• More research on the impact of climate change in the municipality of Bagre should be
carried out using other downsizing portals and others trying to combine several RCM
scenarios by taking all the RCP
• Farmers should be trained in good water management practices, taking into account how
much water each crop should consume without compromising the proper watering
schedule.
• Some drainage canals should be rehabilitated because of their poor condition.

61
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 APPENDIX

Appendix A: Land area under cultivation (ha) and Baseline abstraction for Bagre
irrigation.

LAND UNDER BASELINE ABSTRACTION OF

YEAR CULTIVATED (HA) RICE FOR BAGRE RESERVOIR
(m3)
1997-1998 648 97.44

1998-1999 1248 159.27

1999-2000 2548 245.92

2000-2001 1988 144.17

2001-2002 2294 403.70

2002-2003 3060 501.69

2003-2004 2836 334.18

2004-2005 2798 314.10

2005-2006 2409 331.25

2006-2007 2673 350.39

2007-2008 2773 281.70

2008-2009 3700 522.35

2009-2010 3732 490.96

2010-2011 5678 608.58

LTA 314.84

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Appendix B: Crop irrigation requirements of rice cultivation in the dry season

YEAR CROP IRRIGATION REQUIREMENT (mm)

1997-1998 683.6

1998-1999 625.4

1999-2000 679.8

2000-2001 494.1

2001-2002 751

2002-2003 721.3

2003-2004 665.9

2004-2005 616.2

2005-2006 664.7

2006-2007 643.2

2007-2008 649.9

2008-2009 745.5

2009-2010 654.1

2010-2011 554.5

LTA 653.5

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Appendix C: Thornthwaite’s evapotranspiration formula

Months Ta L N I a PET(mm/month)

JAN 25.81 11.7 31 170 4.63 111.36

FEB 28.75 11.9 28 170 4.63 168.44

MAR 31.57 12.4 31 170 4.63 299.72

APR 33.31 12.6 30 170 4.63 377.74

MAY 31.98 12.7 31 170 4.63 325.57

JUN 29.39 12.9 30 170 4.63 216.59

JUL 27.37 12.7 31 170 4.63 158.38

AUG 26.48 12.5 31 170 4.63 133.74

SEP 26.31 12.9 30 170 4.63 129.74

OCT 29.03 12.1 31 170 4.63 198.25

NOV 28.38 11.8 30 170 4.63 168.52

DEC 26.29 11.7 31 170 4.63 121.13

2409.18

Appendix D: Historical Climate Conditions

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YEAR MONTHLY RAINFALL (mm) FOR PO METEOROLOGICAL STATION

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC ANNUAL
1987 0 0 11.9 8.1 45.4 187.5 183.6 286.3 139.5 31.6 0 0 893.9
1988 0 0 2.2 65.1 37.9 176 158.6 244.6 131 21 13.9 0 850.3
1989 0 0 36.7 4.3 22.7 148.3 261.7 383.5 191.8 52.7 0 40 1141.7
1990 0 0 0 53.5 124 33 229.2 161.2 93.1 22.1 17.7 23.6 757.4
1991 0 2.3 114.1 43.8 174.6 160.9 142.5 370.4 88.1 184.3 0 0 1281
1992 0 0 0.2 69.7 113.7 108.9 172.4 221.9 148.2 48.5 10.8 0 894.3
1993 0 0 22.4 24.2 68.4 251.5 193.9 292.3 116 30.2 3.7 0 1002.6
1994 0 0 23.3 54.5 185.4 44.2 306.8 439.5 138.1 76.6 0 0 1268.4
1995 0 0 8.3 60.1 36.4 178.5 153.6 320.8 117.7 32.2 0.2 16.6 924.4
1996 0 0 8.1 15.2 111.1 306.9 115.8 363.6 215 17.3 0 0 1153
1997 0 0 2.1 52.1 101.7 115 112 165.6 212.2 99.4 0 0 860.1
1998 0 9 0 87.9 138.5 124.3 161.9 215.3 271.9 59.6 0 0 1068.4
1999 0 0.1 0 75.7 165.9 76.1 391.4 318.3 193.8 68.8 0 0 1290.1
2000 0.1 0 0 52.1 73.5 191.7 120.3 225.4 143.9 55.8 0 0 862.8
2001 0 0 0 17.1 48.2 125.2 145.1 236.4 113 43.1 0 0 728.1
2002 0 0 0 62.9 73.2 111.6 201.9 210.4 148.6 36.6 5.2 0 850.4
2003 0 2.2 56.6 43.2 87 169.9 181.4 326.1 269 68.3 2.5 0 1206.2
2004 0 0 10.3 43.4 50.4 196.9 203.2 275.9 130.8 24.2 0 0 935.1
2005 0.4 62.9 0 37.1 120 162.5 206.1 195.6 237.7 55.7 0 0 1078
2006 0 0 0 80 62.1 194.4 192.1 209.4 289.3 52.5 0 0 1079.8
2007 0 0 0 102.1 77.4 120.9 305.9 463 156.1 7.5 0 0 1232.9
2008 0 0 5.4 61.1 37.3 73.5 252.9 350.6 133 68.9 0 0 982.7
2009 0 1.5 0.1 17.4 119.3 194.8 155.6 336 216.7 35.7 0 0 1077.1
2010 0 0 0 41.7 205.5 175.8 157 382.6 181.6 38.7 0 0 1182.9
2011 0 3.5 0 10.6 107.4 91.6 126.5 339.7 229.8 18.2 0 0 927.3
2012 0 0 0 70.2 67.7 79.4 202.6 274.1 262 47.8 5.2 0 1009

73
2013 0 0 23.1 104.3 29.8 102.7 234.3 249.8 124.1 88.6 0 0 956.7
2014 11 0 21.8 154.1 114.9 117.6 109.3 231.1 169.1 9.2 2.9 0 941
2015 0 13.3 0.2 5.7 25.5 120.3 164.3 362.3 190.7 54.1 0 0 936.4
2016 0 0 43.5 62.7 170 166.7 260.3 291.5 211.3 11.3 0 0 1217.3

YEAR MONTHLY MEAN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (℃) FOR PO METEOROLOGICAL STATION

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
1987 34.8 37.5 37.8 39.5 38.1 32.9 31.3 30.3 31.6 34.2 36.3 33.7
1988 32.9 36.6 39.1 37.8 37.5 32.3 29.8 29.5 30.8 35.1 35.4 32.6
1989 32.3 34.3 36.9 39.1 38.1 33.2 30.6 29.4 30.9 33.4 35.8 33.3
1990 33.2 35.4 38.0 37.7 36.1 33.7 30.9 30.9 32.2 36.3 36.7 35.1
1991 34.9 37.8 38.1 37.0 32.5 32.4 31.0 29.9 32.8 33.6 35.4 33.2
1992 32.0 36.1 38.1 37.6 34.3 32.4 30.7 29.6 31.8 35.1 33.9 34.6
1993 31.8 36.3 37.7 38.2 37.5 33.7 30.4 30.4 31.2 34.7 36.5 33.8
1994 33.0 36.0 38.6 38.5 35.2 38.9 31.0 29.2 30.6 32.4 34.4 32.3
1995 32.2 35.1 38.5 37.8 36.3 33.3 30.6 29.3 31.5 34.3 35.4 34.6
1996 36.0 37.4 38.7 38.1 36.3 31.2 30.9 29.9 30.6 33.8 35.1 35.5
1997 35.4 34.7 37.1 36.7 35.1 32.0 31.3 31.1 32.2 34.6 36.6 34.8
1998 34.0 37.5 38.4 39.0 35.6 32.7 31.4 30.0 30.5 33.9 36.4 34.5
1999 34.7 35.5 39.7 38.0 35.6 33.6 30.3 29.3 30.2 33.1 36.0 33.7
2000 35.1 33.6 38.3 39.4 36.4 32.5 30.6 30.3 31.3 34.1 36.7 34.0
2001 34.4 35.3 39.4 39.0 36.9 33.1 31.0 30.0 31.0 35.2 36.5 35.9
2002 32.8 36.1 39.7 38.9 38.3 33.6 31.8 30.1 31.8 33.7 36.2 34.7
2003 34.8 38.2 38.4 38.6 37.4 32.4 30.9 30.6 31.4 34.8 36.6 34.4
2004 34.9 36.6 37.6 37.7 35.4 32.4 31.1 31.2 31.8 35.9 36.7 37.0
2005 33.1 37.9 40.2 39.4 37.0 32.8 31.1 30.7 32.3 35.4 36.8 35.6

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2006 36.0 37.6 39.9 39.0 35.9 33.6 31.5 30.6 31.1 34.1 35.7 34.2
2007 33.0 37.5 39.2 37.5 35.4 33.1 30.9 29.7 32.3 35.9 36.8 34.6
2008 31.2 36.2 39.0 38.2 36.8 34.0 30.7 29.9 31.5 34.5 36.6 35.6
2009 33.8 38.4 39.4 38.7 36.3 33.1 31.1 30.4 31.7 33.8 35.7 36.3
2010 36.5 39.3 39.7 39.1 35.6 32.0 30.2 30.2 30.8 33.0 36.4 35.0
2011 33.9 36.8 39.9 38.9 36.2 33.7 32.1 30.0 31.5 33.9 36.5 33.8
2012 33.7 36.7 38.7 37.6 35.2 33.7 30.6 30.2 30.8 33.7 36.6 34.6
2013 34.2 37.3 39.4 37.3 36.2 34.2 31.1 29.3 31.2 33.8 36.6 34.1
2014 35.1 36.7 38.7 36.8 35.0 34.3 32.1 30.5 30.7 34.8 36.6 34.8
2015 33.6 37.7 38.7 39.6 39.0 34.9 31.8 30.4 31.6 34.1 36.2 32.0
2016 33.9 36.7 38.9 39.4 36.0 32.6 31.0 30.5 31.3 35.1 36.8 35.4

MONTHLY MEAN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (℃) FOR PO METEOROLOGICAL STATION

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
1987 19.3 21.9 24.2 26.2 26.7 23.0 22.0 21.8 22.2 22.2 20.1 18.7
1988 18.8 21.4 26.0 26.1 25.9 23.1 22.0 22.0 21.6 21.3 19.8 17.9
1989 16.9 19.9 23.2 26.2 25.6 22.8 22.0 21.5 21.3 20.9 19.7 18.4
1990 19.6 20.1 23.2 26.0 24.5 23.5 22.1 22.0 21.9 22.7 21.9 20.6
1991 19.6 23.4 25.3 25.3 23.8 22.4 22.3 21.8 22.3 21.6 21.1 17.6
1992 18.2 21.2 24.7 25.9 24.0 22.6 21.7 21.6 21.5 22.1 20.0 18.1
1993 17.6 21.8 24.8 26.5 26.1 23.4 22.0 21.7 21.6 22.6 22.1 18.6
1994 18.7 21.1 25.4 26.6 24.5 23.3 22.5 22.1 22.0 21.9 18.9 17.0
1995 16.2 19.4 25.4 26.5 25.2 23.6 22.5 21.5 22.2 22.4 19.9 19.5
1996 19.5 22.9 25.5 25.8 24.9 22.4 22.1 21.7 21.3 21.2 17.9 18.1
1997 19.6 19.6 23.7 24.9 24.2 22.3 22.2 22.2 22.3 22.7 21.1 18.7

75
1998 18.9 22.6 24.2 27.7 25.8 23.3 22.9 22.0 21.9 22.4 20.4 19.2
1999 19.6 21.2 25.4 25.3 24.3 23.2 22.0 21.8 21.1 21.4 20.1 17.8
2000 20.9 18.6 23.6 26.5 24.9 22.4 22.0 21.2 21.4 21.8 20.2 18.4
2001 17.3 19.3 24.5 26.4 25.5 23.0 22.2 21.9 21.6 22.1 20.6 19.3
2002 18.9 20.4 25.8 26.6 25.7 23.1 22.5 21.8 22.0 21.8 20.2 18.3
2003 19.1 23.1 24.0 25.9 25.4 22.6 22.1 21.8 21.7 22.5 21.3 18.0
2004 19.6 21.9 24.2 25.7 24.6 22.2 21.6 21.7 21.4 22.3 21.2 19.7
2005 18.4 23.8 26.7 27.1 24.7 23.1 22.1 21.7 21.9 21.6 20.0 18.9
2006 20.5 22.4 25.4 26.2 25.0 23.4 22.5 22.3 21.6 22.9 18.7 17.7
2007 17.7 21.3 24.9 25.7 25.0 23.6 22.3 21.8 22.2 23.2 21.6 19.1
2008 15.9 20.3 24.4 25.5 25.2 23.7 22.2 21.9 22.0 22.3 19.5 19.4
2009 18.1 23.3 26.1 26.0 24.6 23.2 22.4 22.2 22.5 22.8 20.7 19.1
2010 18.4 23.2 26.5 27.2 25.2 23.8 22.6 22.3 22.0 22.6 21.6 17.9
2011 17.7 22.1 25.9 25.6 24.3 23.2 22.2 21.3 21.7 21.9 19.6 16.6
2012 17.4 22.5 25.2 25.9 24.5 23.4 22.4 22.1 22.0 22.7 22.4 19.0
2013 18.5 21.5 26.6 25.8 25.3 23.6 22.2 21.9 22.1 22.4 21.9 18.9
2014 19.9 22.1 24.6 25.3 24.8 23.4 23.3 22.4 21.9 23.4 22.8 19.0
2015 18.0 22.9 25.0 26.7 27.1 24.7 22.9 22.6 22.7 23.3 20.7 17.1
2016 18.8 20.9 25.5 27.3 25.3 23.4 22.7 22.4 22.0 23.0 21.7 19.9

76
Appendix E: Baseline Climate for Po meteorological Station

DURATION
MONTH RAINFALL MAX_TEMP MIN_TEMP RELATIVE WIND OF Eto (mm/day)
(mm) (℃) (℃) HUMIDITY SPEED SUNSHINE
(%) (km/day) (hrs)
JAN 0 33.74 17.89 21 221 19.4 7.60
FEB 1.86 36.74 20.77 21 208 8.6 7.04
MAR 7.00 39.19 23.96 29 191 7.9 7.14
APR 33.93 39.92 26.70 49 231 7.8 7.32
MAY 77.74 37.76 26.20 62 253 8.2 6.75
JUN 113.76 34.57 24.22 72 246 7.8 5.61
JUL 174.59 31.79 22.94 77 220 6.7 4.70
AUG 22.23 30.57 22.38 80 184 5.8 4.17
SEP 143.24 30.92 21.69 78 179 6.8 4.35
OCT 42.64 35.44 22.62 68 161 8.6 5.23
NOV 0.71 36.78 19.98 42 175 9.1 6.97
DEC 1.38 34.52 18.07 28 225 9.1 6.54

77
Appendix F: Bias correction factor of Temperature and rainfall for Fada Manga and Po Stations

FADA STATION MANGA STATION PO STATION Rainfall

correction factor (mm)
Month Diff_max Diff_min Diff_max Diff_min Diff_max Diff_min Fada Manga Po
[℃] [℃] [℃] [℃] [℃] [℃] station station station
1 -2.58 -0.45 -2.82 -1.23 0.24 1.43 0 1 0.01
2 -2.8 -0.04 -2.93 -0.96 0.19 2.08 0 29.52 0.08
3 -0.95 1.88 -1.03 0.92 0.42 3.44 0.22 1.15 0.61
4 3.26 2.52 2.74 2.02 2.25 2.43 0.18 0.78 0.90
5 3.89 2.03 3.42 1.67 3.40 0.67 0.36 0.8 0.98
6 0.01 -0.03 -0.39 -0.38 0.79 -1.06 0.8 1.22 0.95
7 -2.14 -1.07 -2.57 -1.37 -1.43 -1.70 0.99 1.4 1.10
8 -2.99 -1.35 -3.41 -1.64 -1.43 -1.96 1.43 1.26 1.12
9 -5.1 0.37 -5.6 -0.8 -2.67 -1.15 2.98 1.51 1.00
10 -3.07 1.72 -3.2 0.47 -1.82 0.93 2.72 1.27 0.90
11 1.04 1.14 0.75 0.41 1.03 1.52 1 37.68 0.63
12 0.36 1.06 0.11 0.45 2.08 2.16 1 1 1.71

78
Appendix G: Representative Concentration Pathway Scenario
Fada Station (maximum and Minimum Temperature)

RCP4.5 BSL(1988-2016) 2030(+0.8℃) 2050(+1.2℃) 2070(-0.1℃) 2090(+1.5℃)

MONTHS Max.Tmp Min.Tmp Max.Tmp Min.Tmp Max.Tmp Min.Tmp Max.Tmp Min.Tmp Max.Tmp Min.Tmp

Jan 33.74 17.89 34.54 18.69 34.94 19.09 33.64 17.79 35.24 19.29

Feb 36.74 20.77 37.54 21.57 37.94 21.97 36.64 20.67 38.24 22.17

Mar 37.19 20.95 37.99 21.75 38.39 22.15 37.09 20.85 38.69 22.35

Apr 39.92 26.70 40.72 27.50 41.12 27.90 39.82 26.60 41.42 28.10

May 37.76 26.20 38.56 27.00 38.96 27.40 37.66 26.10 39.26 27.60

Jun 34.57 24.22 35.37 25.02 35.77 25.42 34.47 24.12 36.07 25.62

Jul 31.79 22.94 32.59 23.74 32.99 24.14 31.69 22.84 33.29 24.34

Aug 30.67 22.44 31.47 23.24 31.87 23.64 30.57 22.34 32.17 23.84

Sep 32.02 22.44 32.82 23.24 33.22 23.64 31.92 22.34 33.52 23.84

Oct 35.45 22.56 36.25 23.36 36.65 23.76 35.35 22.46 36.95 23.96

Nov 36.78 19.95 37.58 20.75 37.98 21.15 36.68 19.85 38.28 21.35

Dec 34.61 18.11 35.41 18.91 35.81 19.31 34.51 18.01 36.11 19.51

79
RCP8.5 BSL(1988-2016) 2030(+0.9℃) 2050(+1.7℃) 2070(+0.6℃) 2090(+2.8℃)

MONTHS Max.Tmp Min.Tmp Max.Tmp Min.Tmp Max.Tmp Min.Tmp Max.Tmp Min.Tmp Max.Tmp Min.Tmp

Jan 33.7 17.9 34.6 18.8 35.4 19.6 34.3 18.5 36.5 20.7

Feb 36.7 20.8 37.6 21.7 38.4 22.5 37.3 21.4 39.5 23.6

Mar 37.2 21.0 38.1 21.9 38.9 22.7 37.8 21.6 40.0 23.8

Apr 39.9 26.7 40.8 27.6 41.6 28.4 40.5 27.3 42.7 29.5

May 37.8 26.2 38.7 27.1 39.5 27.9 38.4 26.8 40.6 29.0

Jun 34.6 24.2 35.5 25.1 36.3 25.9 35.2 24.8 37.4 27.0

Jul 31.8 22.9 32.7 23.8 33.5 24.6 32.4 23.5 34.6 25.7

Aug 30.7 22.4 31.6 23.3 32.4 24.1 31.3 23.0 33.5 25.2

Sep 32.0 22.4 32.9 23.3 33.7 24.1 32.6 23.0 34.8 25.2

Oct 35.4 22.6 36.3 23.5 37.1 24.3 36.0 23.2 38.2 25.4

Nov 36.8 20.0 37.7 20.9 38.5 21.7 37.4 20.6 39.6 22.8

Dec 34.6 18.1 35.5 19.0 36.3 19.8 35.2 18.7 37.4 20.9

80
Manga Station Maximum and Minimum Temperature)

RCP4.5 BSL(1988-2016) 2030(+0.8℃) 2050(+1.3℃) 2070(+1.7℃) 2090(+1.5℃)

MONTHS Max.Tmp Min.Tmp Max.Tmp Min.Tmp Max.Tmp Min.Tmp Max.Tmp Min.Tmp Max.Tmp Min.Tmp

Jan 33.7 17.9 34.5 18.7 35.0 19.2 35.4 19.6 35.2 19.4

Feb 36.7 20.8 37.5 21.6 38.0 22.1 38.4 22.5 38.2 22.3

Mar 37.2 21.0 38.0 21.8 38.5 22.3 38.9 22.7 38.7 22.5

Apr 39.9 26.7 40.7 27.5 41.2 28.0 41.6 28.4 41.4 28.2

May 37.8 26.2 38.6 27.0 39.1 27.5 39.5 27.9 39.3 27.7

Jun 34.6 24.2 35.4 25.0 35.9 25.5 36.3 25.9 36.1 25.7

Jul 31.8 22.9 32.6 23.7 33.1 24.2 33.5 24.6 33.3 24.4

Aug 30.7 22.4 31.5 23.2 32.0 23.7 32.4 24.1 32.2 23.9

Sep 32.0 22.4 32.8 23.2 33.3 23.7 33.7 24.1 33.5 23.9

Oct 35.4 22.6 36.2 23.4 36.7 23.9 37.1 24.3 36.9 24.1

Nov 36.8 20.0 37.6 20.8 38.1 21.3 38.5 21.7 38.3 21.5

Dec 34.6 18.1 35.4 18.9 35.9 19.4 36.3 19.8 36.1 19.6

81
RCP8.5 BSL(1988-2016) 2030(+1.0℃) 2050(+1.7℃) 2070(+2.4℃) 2090(+2.9℃)

MONTHS Max.Tmp Min.Tmp Max.Tmp Min.Tmp Max.Tmp Min.Tmp Max.Tmp Min.Tmp Max.Tmp Min.Tmp

JAN 33.7 17.9 34.7 18.9 35.4 19.6 36.1 20.3 36.6 20.3

FEB 36.7 20.8 37.7 21.8 38.4 22.5 39.1 23.2 39.6 23.2

MAR 37.2 21.0 38.2 22.0 38.9 22.7 39.6 23.4 40.1 23.4

APR 39.9 26.7 40.9 27.7 41.6 28.4 42.3 29.1 42.8 29.1

MAY 37.8 26.2 38.8 27.2 39.5 27.9 40.2 28.6 40.7 28.6

JUN 34.6 24.2 35.6 25.2 36.3 25.9 37.0 26.6 37.5 26.6

JUL 31.8 22.9 32.8 23.9 33.5 24.6 34.2 25.3 34.7 25.3

AUG 30.7 22.4 31.7 23.4 32.4 24.1 33.1 24.8 33.6 24.8

SEP 32.0 22.4 33.0 23.4 33.7 24.1 34.4 24.8 34.9 24.8

OCT 35.4 22.6 36.4 23.6 37.1 24.3 37.8 25.0 38.3 25.0

NOV 36.8 20.0 37.8 21.0 38.5 21.7 39.2 22.4 39.7 22.4

DEC 34.6 18.1 35.6 19.1 36.3 19.8 37.0 20.5 37.5 20.5

82
Po Station Maximum and Minimum Temperature)

RCP4.5 BSL(1988-2016) 2030(+1.8℃) 2050(+2.3℃) 2070(+2.7℃) 2090(+2.5℃)

MONTHS Max.Tmp Min.Tmp Max.Tmp Min.Tmp Max.Tmp Min.Tmp Max.Tmp Min.Tmp Max.Tmp Min.Tmp

JAN 33.9 18.6 35.7 20.4 36.2 20.9 36.6 21.1 36.4 20.9

FEB 36.6 21.5 38.4 23.3 38.9 22.5 39.3 24.2 39.1 24.0

MAR 38.7 25.0 40.5 26.8 41.0 26.1 41.4 27.9 41.2 27.7

APR 38.2 26.1 40.0 27.9 40.5 27.8 40.9 28.8 40.7 28.6

MAY 36.2 25.0 38.0 26.8 38.5 25.7 38.9 26.7 38.7 26.5

JUN 33.3 23.1 35.1 24.9 35.6 23.8 36.0 24.7 35.8 24.5

JUL 31.0 22.3 32.8 24.1 33.3 22.8 33.7 23.6 33.5 23.4

AUG 30.1 21.9 31.9 23.7 32.4 22.3 32.8 23.1 32.6 22.9

SEP 31.4 21.8 33.2 23.6 33.7 22.6 34.1 23.6 33.9 23.4

OCT 34.3 22.3 36.1 24.1 36.6 22.4 37.0 23.0 36.8 22.8

NOV 36.1 20.6 37.9 22.4 38.4 21.1 38.8 21.7 38.6 21.5

DEC 34.4 18.5 36.2 20.3 36.7 20.2 37.1 21.0 36.9 20.8

83
RCP8.5 BSL(1988-2016) 2030(+1.7℃) 2050(+2.4℃) 2070(+3.1℃) 2090(+3.6)

MONTHS Max.Tmp Min.Tmp Max.Tmp Min.Tmp Max.Tmp Min.Tmp Max.Tmp Min.Tmp Max.Tmp Min.Tmp

JAN 33.9 18.6 35.6 20.3 36.3 21.0 37.0 21.7 37.5 22.2

FEB 36.6 21.5 38.3 23.2 39.0 23.9 39.7 24.6 40.2 25.1

MAR 38.7 25.0 40.4 26.7 41.1 27.4 41.8 28.1 42.3 28.6

APR 38.2 26.1 39.9 27.8 40.6 28.5 41.3 29.2 41.8 29.7

MAY 36.2 25.0 37.9 26.7 38.6 27.4 39.3 28.1 39.8 28.6

JUN 33.3 23.1 35.0 24.8 35.7 25.5 36.4 26.2 36.9 26.7

JUL 31.0 22.3 32.7 24.0 33.4 24.7 34.1 25.4 34.6 25.9

AUG 30.1 21.9 31.8 23.6 32.5 24.3 33.2 25.0 33.7 25.5

SEP 31.4 21.8 33.1 23.5 33.8 24.2 34.5 24.9 35.0 25.4

OCT 34.3 22.3 36.0 24.0 36.7 24.7 37.4 25.4 37.9 25.9

NOV 36.1 20.6 37.8 22.3 38.5 23.0 39.2 23.7 39.7 24.2

DEC 34.4 18.5 36.1 20.2 36.8 20.9 37.5 21.6 38.0 22.1

84
Fada Station (Rainfall (mm))

(1988-2016) 2030 2050 2070 2090

Months BSL RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5

JAN 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

FEB 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

MAR 7.0 12.7 14.2 19.2 19.1 28.2 28.2 31.7 30.1

APR 33.9 41.1 35.7 37.1 36.5 33.1 39.9 44.1 49.6

MAY 77.7 97.3 73.8 70.4 70.7 49.2 67.9 59.9 67.6

JUN 113.8 94.1 105.1 111.0 113.6 133.4 127.0 133.6 145.5

JUL 174.6 191.4 202.1 218.5 234.1 208.1 233.9 209.4 246.1

AUG 22.2 213.6 225.3 185.4 195.4 164.4 177.9 129.6 188.6

SEP 143.2 82.9 164.1 48.1 81.0 54.5 47.4 30.6 47.4

OCT 42.6 6.9 28.0 4.8 15.1 6.1 1.6 0.0 2.7

NOV 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

DEC 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

85
Manga Station (Rainfall (mm))

(1988-2016) 2030 2050 2070 2090

Months BSL RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5

JAN 51.61 0 0 0 0 0 3.88 0 0

FEB 75.9 0 0 24.21 659.24 983.7 204.3 1627.89 219.06

MAR 120.4 104.1 0 45.16 147.18 118.32 218.4 101.2 114.09

APR 147.5 88.63 162.66 84.05 112.36 146.02 95.78 169.85 91.85

MAY 131.6 274.54 157.42 71.8 110.42 68.74 176.92 152.28 58.35

JUN 89.0 86.66 170.62 101.44 128.56 128.92 203.19 148.25 157.09

JUL 114.6 236.65 212.23 258.51 404.67 197.11 184.53 209.35 280.86

AUG 103.2 49.9 260.71 90.9 86.82 130.85 214.78 81.86 62.63

SEP 39.8 50.19 72.93 14.51 20.11 2.44 0 80.21 0

OCT 3.6 0 2.35 0 0 2.19 0 0 0

NOV 11.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

DEC 21.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

86
Po Station ( Rainfall (mm))

(1988-2016) 2030 2050 2070 2090

Months BSL RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5

JAN 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 14.6 0.2 0.0 0.0

FEB 3.4 39.4 0.0 67.7 1.4 181.2 4.2 249.3 4.1

MAR 12.0 87.3 30.8 117.9 45.2 161.9 75.4 206.2 82.0

APR 53.9 193.3 128.9 182.6 116.9 158.6 146.6 218.6 194.2

MAY 92.1 194.8 166.5 140.7 161.1 87.0 152.6 114.4 155.5

JUN 141.2 84.9 118.3 102.9 142.0 126.8 158.0 137.6 185.1

JUL 191.4 151.8 150.3 174.2 193.8 184.5 188.3 166.2 199.4

AUG 291.6 107.4 146.3 87.8 119.5 88.7 110.5 65.8 111.5

SEP 175.4 16.0 50.2 8.9 29.9 10.3 17.6 6.8 17.1

OCT 50.6 2.3 13.5 1.8 9.0 3.5 0.8 0.0 2.1

NOV 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

DEC 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

87
Appendix H: Estimation of future water abstraction from Bagre irrigation using extreme RCPs Scenario
Projected Maximum Future Irrigation Volume (Mm3) Cultivated area from 1997 to 2011

2030 2050 2070 2090

FADA STATION RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5

Irrigation Abs 332.879759 315.818 339.9459 335.9705 320.5156 329.7109 333.9933 356.5316

Evap_loss 731.09 731.09 731.09 731.09 731.09 731.09 731.09 731.09

Irrigation Treshold 1382 1382 1382 1382 1382 1382 1382 1382

Res_Capacity 1700 1700 1700 1700 1700 1700 1700 1700

ETWA 1063.96976 1046.908 1071.036 1067.061 1051.606 1060.801 1065.083 1087.622

2030 2050 2070 2090

MANGA STATION RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5

Irrigation Abs 254.39 209.54 284.11 269.48 297.94 267.39 297.94 286.39

Evap_loss 731.09 731.09 731.09 731.09 731.09 731.09 731.09 731.09

Irrigation Treshold 1382.00 1382.00 1382.00 1382.00 1382.00 1382.00 1382.00 1382.00

RES_Capacity 1700.00 1700.00 1700.00 1700.00 1700.00 1700.00 1700.00 1700.00

ETWA 985.48 940.62 1015.20 1000.56 1029.02 998.48 1029.02 1017.48

88
 2030 2050 2070 2090

PO STATION RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5

Irrigation Abs 256.37 233.47 260.87 265.01 242.50 265.91 229.42 264.04

Evap_loss 731.09 731.09 731.09 731.09 731.09 731.09 731.09 731.09

Irrigation
Threshold 1382.00 1382.00 1382.00 1382.00 1382.00 1382.00 1382.00 1382.00

Res_Capacity 1700.00 1700.00 1700.00 1700.00 1700.00 1700.00 1700.00 1700.00

ETWA 987.45 964.55 991.95 996.10 973.58 997.00 960.50 995.13

Projected maximum future irrigation volume (Mm3) for the extended area
2030 2050 2070 2090

FADA STATION RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5

Irrigation Abs 792.72 756.5967 815.4562 805.5718 768.7778 790.6469 808.214 855.3869

Evap_loss 731.09 731.085 731.085 731.085 731.085 731.085 731.085 731.085

Irrigation
Threshold 1382 1382 1382 1382 1382 1382 1382 1382

Res_Capacity 1700 1700 1700 1700 1700 1700 1700 1700

ETWA 1523.805 1487.682 1546.541 1536.657 1499.863 1521.732 1539.299 1586.472

89
 2030 2050 2070 2090

MANGA STATION RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5

Irrigation Abs 748.43 616.47 835.87 792.81 876.54 786.68 876.54 842.58

Evap_loss 731.085 731.085 731.085 731.085 731.085 731.085 731.085 731.085

Irrigation Treshold 1382 1382 1382 1382 1382 1382 1382 1382

RES_Capacity 1700 1700 1700 1700 1700 1700 1700 1700

ETWA 1479.52 1347.56 1566.95 1523.90 1607.63 1517.77 1607.63 1573.67

2030 2050 2070 2090

PO STATTION RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5

Irrigation Abs 754.25 686.87 767.48 779.69 713.44 782.33 674.95 776.83

Evap_loss 731.09 731.09 731.09 731.09 731.09 731.09 731.09 731.09

Irrigation Treshold 1382.00 1382.00 1382.00 1382.00 1382.00 1382.00 1382.00 1382.00

Res_Capacity 1700.00 1700.00 1700.00 1700.00 1700.00 1700.00 1700.00 1700.00

ETWA 1485.34 1417.96 1498.57 1510.77 1444.53 1513.41 1406.04 1507.92

90