Interval Estimation or Confidence Interval

(CI) for the mean (average) of a population

(true mean)

Introduction
Point estimation vs interval estimation
Parameter, Population M population mean
Statistic, Sample x̅ sample mean

Do you remember last example in the last class?

What range of IQ scores includes the 95% of people in
the middle range of IQ scores?

The range of IQ scores from 68.64 to 131.36

P ( 68.64< X < 131.36 )=95 %

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The (1-α) Confidence Interval (CI) for the mean
of the population

SD SD
P(x̅ −Z < M < x̅ + Z )=1−α
√N √N

1-α is called confidence level

α is called significance level

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 Example 1:
Construct a 95% confidence interval for Average
Height of a men population given that you selected a
random sample of 40 men and you found that the mean
height of the sample was 175cm with a standard deviation
of 20cm.
(
P 175−1.96
20
√ 40
< M <175+1.96
20
√ 40 )
=1−5 %=95 %

P(175-6.2<M<175+6.2) = 95%
P(168.8<M<181.2) = 95%
The "95%" says that if we repeated the experiment like
we just did say100 times, 95 of these experiments will
include the true mean, but 5 won't. So there is a 1-in-20
chance (5%) that our Confidence Interval does NOT
include the true mean.

To be more specific
SD SD
P( x̅ −Z ∝/ 2 < M < x̅ + Z∝ /2 )=1−α
√N √N

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 Example 2:
Construct a 99% confidence level for mean stress
level of a group of female students, given that you
selected a random sample of 100 females from this group
and you found that the average stress level in the sample
was 50 points with a standard deviation of 20 points.

(
P 50−2.575
20
√ 100
< M <50+ 2.575
20
)
√ 100
=100 %−1 %=99 %

P ( 50−5.15< M <50+5.15 ) =99 %

P ( 44.85< M <55.15 )=99 %

-Estimate the margin of error (error bound)

5.15 or ±5.15

-If you were told that the true average stress level was 48
points, what can you say?

Given the results of our sample, we cannot reject this

statement since 48 is within our 99% range of CI and we
are 99% confident of our result.

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 Example 3:
Construct a 95% confidence interval for the true
average age of the AUC students given that a random
sample of 25 students was selected and it was found that
the average age in the sample was 20 years of age with a
variance of 9.
(
P 20−1.96
3
√ 25
< M <20+1.96
3
√ 25 )
=95 %

P ( 20−1.176< M <20+ 1.176 )=95 %

P ( 18.824< M <21.176 ) =95 %

-Estimate the margin of error (error bound)

The margin of error (error bound) = ±1.176 or 1.176

-What do you say if the administration told you that the

true average age is 18 years of age?

Given the results of our sample, we reject this

statement since 18 is outside the 95% range of our CI and
we are 95% confident of our result.

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 Example 4:
Construct a 95% confidence interval for the true
average score in an exam, given that a random sample of
16 students who took the course was selected with an
average score of 15 with a variance of 4 marks. Estimate
the error bound, what is your response to a fellow student
who told you that the true average score in this course is
13.5?

(
P 15−1.96
2
√ 16
< M <15+1.96
2
√ 16 )
=95 %

P ( 15−0.98< M <15+ 0.98 )=95 %

P ( 14.02< M <15.98 )=95 %

Error bound=±0.98 or 0.98

Given the results of the sample, we reject the
statement since 13.5 is outside the 95% range of our CI
and we are 95% confident of our conclusion.