The Astronomical Journal, 151:103 (12pp), 2016 April doi:10.

3847/0004-6256/151/4/103
© 2016. The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.

EARTH’S ROTATIONAL DECELERATION: DETERMINATION OF TIDAL FRICTION INDEPENDENT OF

TIMESCALES
Steven D. Deines1 and Carol A. Williams2,3
1
Donatech Corporation, Fairfield, IA 52556, USA; steven.deines@gmail.com
2
Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Prof. emeritus), University of South Florida, 4202 E. Fowler Ave., Tampa, FL 33620, USA; cw@math.usf.edu
3
Retired Adjunct Professor of Astronomy, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
Received 2013 December 5; accepted 2015 November 9; published 2016 March 29

ABSTRACT
This paper determines Earthʼs rotational deceleration without relying on atomic or ephemeris timescales. Earthʼs
rotation defines the civil time standard called Universal Time (UT). Our previous paper did not examine tidal
friction indepth when analyzing the timescale divergence between UT and International Atomic Time (TAI). We
examine all available paleontological fossils and deposits for the direct measurements of Earthʼs past rotation rates,
because that record includes all contributing effects. We examine paleontological reports that date Earthʼs rotation
rate using corals, bivalves, brachiopods, rhythmites, and stromatolites. Contributions that vary Earthʼs moment of
inertia, such as continental plate drifts, coastline changes, ice age formations, and viscous glacial rebounds, are
superimposed with the secular deceleration. The average deceleration of Earthʼs rotation rate from all available
fossil data is found to be (5.969±1.762)×10−7 rad yr−2. Our value is 99.8% of the total rotational deceleration
determined by Christodoulidis et al., who used artificial satellite data, and our value is 96.6% of the expected tidal
friction value obtained by Stephenson and Morrison. Taking the derivative of conserved angular momentum, the
predicted lunar orbital deceleration caused by the average rotational deceleration corresponds closely to lunar
models. When evaluating the significant time gaps between UT and TAI, Earthʼs rotational deceleration is a minor
contributing factor. Also, the secular deceleration rate is necessary to correctly date ancient astronomical events.
We strongly encourage that more ocean paleontological evidence be found to supplement the record to separate the
many periodic variations embedded in these data.
Key words: ephemerides – Moon – time

1. BASIC CONCEPTS CONCERNING TIME AND EARTH
ROTATIONAL RATE
In Deines & Williams (2007), the authors established that
one contributing factor of divergence between Universal Time
(UT)4 and International Atomic Time (TAI) timescales was due
to the omission of time dilation in the Improved Lunar
Ephemeris theory (ILE 1954) that defined time intervals
between observed lunar positions. That calibration was
conducted by the US Naval Observatory and the National
Physics Laboratory between 1955 and 1958. The scientific
community accepted that result (Markowitz et al. 1958) as the
definition for the Système Internationale second. The Deines &
Williams (2007) paper recognized that tidal friction would be a
factor that would decelerate Earthʼs rotation rate, but it was not
analyzed in detail.
The historical record of Earthʼs rotational deceleration is
found in all types of ocean paleontology, which this study will
review. The results of Earthʼs rotational deceleration still show
that tidal effects are initially much smaller than the missing
time dilation terms that were published in our 2007 paper, but
botheffects must be included.
The tools and means are there to construct a precise
compensation for rotational deceleration. We will examine
fossil data to get an accurate value for it. Even though
individual fossils are not inherently precise, such accuracy is
obtained when the samples are spread over hundreds of
4
UT0 is the timescale based on mean solar time from Earthʼs rotation as
determined by observed meridian transits. Polar wobble affects UT0 at the
observerʼs latitude. The UT1 timescale is adjusted for polar wobble and
synonymous to UT in this paper.
millions of years. A constant deceleration model is an excellent
fit to the fossil data. This analysis examines all available
paleontological data from corals, bivalves, brachiopods,
rhythmites, and stromatolites in terms of sidereal days that
record 360° rotations.
In this paper, tidal interaction is a cause for the increase in
the length of the solar day over years, which is one of two main
contributions for the UT time tags lagging behind the TAI
output. Ignoring tidal interactions completely will impact long-
term operations or calculations. For example, one standard
value for Earthʼs rotational rate is obtained by equating 2π
radians as the number of UT seconds in a sidereal day
(86164.09055+ s) into the total number of seconds in the year
1900.0 according to Newcomb (1895a, 1895b) and approved
by the IAU (1954). This result is the same value for Earthʼs
mean rotation rate in terms of true of date as given by Aoki
et al. (1982) and in the World Geodetic System 1984 (NIMA
2000) model for the Global Positioning System (GPS).
Obviously, Earthʼs rotation rate as of 1958 January was
slightly smaller than the derived value of 1900.0, and no
documentation reveals that any compensation for rotational
deceleration was made when TAI was set to equal UT on 1958
January 0 or in any update to UT since then. GPS uses the same
1900 Earth rotation rate today rather than the current Earth
rotation rate, as it does not matter since the broadcast GPS
epoch is always the closest Saturday midnight relative to the
present with an insignificant difference in the GPS constellation
relative to Earth between that GPS epoch and the current time.
It would take decades after an epoch to detect a noticeable
difference in Earth orientation between the 1900.0 and the
present Earth rotation rate, but the effect could be observed

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The Astronomical Journal, 151:103 (12pp), 2016 April
given high enough precision. Another immediate effect of
ignoring tidal friction is backdating the calculations for ancient
astronomical events, such as lunar or solar eclipses, because
Earthʼs actual rotational hour angle will be oriented further
west than using the 1900.0 rotation rate of Earth. In even earlier
times, the uncompensated rotational deceleration could accu-
mulate into the loss of a day of rotation in the calculations, as
well as affect the Julian Day Calendar accuracy.
2. TIMESCALE ISSUES, TIDAL FRICTION, AND THE
FOSSIL HISTORY
UT is the timescale based on the mean solar day, which is
divided exactly into 86,400 units called seconds. UT is the
oldest operational timescale that is still used for civil
timekeeping, although it does not match the precision obtained
with atomic clocks. The initial value for TAI was chosen so
that TAI would read the same time as UT at the beginning of
1958 January. The two timescales soon began to diverge
slowly after 1958, and the difference is called ΔT = TAI −
UT. TAI is independent of Earthʼs rotation, so that ΔT shows
how UT lags behind the TAI rate. In addition, Mean Sidereal
Time (MST; equivalently GMST) is the angle between the
meridians of Greenwich and the vernal equinox. The tropical
year (equinox to equinox) can be divided into mean solar days
with reference to the Sun or mean sidereal days with reference
to the distant stars; the tropical year has a length of exactly one
more rotation in sidereal days than in solar days. As Earth
revolves around the Sun in each orbit, one sidereal rotation is
divided up evenly and incorporated in the mean solar days, so
the annual sidereal days exceed the solar day count by exactly 1
day. The tropical year is chosen among other annual periods,
since it has more precision in its period than others (see
Explanatory Supplement by Seidelmann 1992).
In our earlier paper (Deines & Williams 2007), we
documented that UT, which is based on Earthʼs rotational
rate, always trailed TAI, because the size of the mean UT
second is minutely larger than the atomic second. This is one of
many issues that the timekeeping community has not addressed
adequately, and evidence from Essen et al. (1958) and
Markowitz (1959) documented that the average UT second of
1958 was larger than the Ephemeris Time (ET) second, which
will be discussed in detail in a future paper.
Some critics may contend that atomic clocks are far more
precise than the fossil record. As rotational deceleration is very
small, it will take centuries to get a valid estimate. As explained
in this paragraph, atomic clocks can only achieve two
significant figures in the last century for Earthʼs rotational
deceleration. Earthʼs rotational rate ω of 365.2421897 days in
tropical year 1990 (Seidelmann 1992, p. 698) is probably
determined from the atomic timescale after eliminating the
periodic variations in the length-of-day (LOD) observations.
Unfortunately, the rotational periodic variations near the 1958
epoch of TAI were not measured or monitored, since no long-
term clock with better precision than Earthʼs rotation existed
then. The only other estimate of Earthʼs rotational rate with at
least the same atomic precision is obtained from centuries of
observations to fix Earthʼs orbital frequency in the formula for
Earthʼs tropical year at 1900.0 (Seidelmann 1992, pp. 79–80),
which one obtains by converting the number of seconds in
tropical year 1900.0 into days (divide 31,556,925.9747 by
86,400). Obtain the difference between these two angular
velocity rotations and divide by 90 yrto get the resultant
2
Deines & Williams
angular deceleration α. Its accuracy is limited to just two
significant figures after subtraction of ω–ω0, where ω = ω0 + α
(T–T0). Although decadal periodic variations in Earthʼs
rotation rate interfere with short-term UT measurements, fossils
provide three significant figures directly from any raw counts of
growth ridges, despite any fossil record deviations. Averaging
over n samples reduces the inaccuracy, δ, by d n . With
n > 100, our final result will be four significant figures.
Hence, we choose to use fossil samples containing growth
ridges to determine the average deceleration in Earthʼs rotation
using an elementary kinematic model. Crustal plate movement
can drastically change the coastlines over many eons. Changes
in Earthʼs moment of inertia can be due to postglacial
rebounding or formation (i.e., glacial isostatic adjustment)
and would also be incorporated in the actual rotation rate
recorded many millions of years ago (Mya). Vortices in the
molten lava may modify the moment of inertia on a periodic
basis (Cardin & Olson 1994). A secular change for Earthʼs
moment of inertia is not expected, or else Earth would evolve
into a flat rotating mass while maintaining elasticity, similar to
a spinning pizza crust. The fossil record measures all sources of
secular and periodic variations of Earthʼs rotation. Throughout
this paper, the terms tidal friction and secular rotational
deceleration are interchangeable.
2.1. Evaluation of Paleontological Reports on Earth’s
Rotation Rate
Growth rings on fossils and sediment layers caused by the
rhythmic action of the tides have the potential to obtain a
realistic measure for the magnitude of the deceleration on
Earthʼs rotation independent of timescales. Comparisons of
paleontological annual records are made between several
stromatolites (McGugan 1967; Pannella 1972a, 1972b; Vanyo
& Awramik 1985; Sonnet & Chan 1998; Zhu & Huang 2003),
corals (Wells 1963, 1970, Scrutton 1964, and Pannella 1972a),
bivalves (Berry & Barker 1968; Pannella 1972a, 1972b, 1976),
brachiopods (Mazzullo 1971), and rhythmites (Williams 1989a,
1989b, 2000; Sonnet et al. 1996). The length of the solar day
(LOD) has varied in these geological records from 375 to 532
days per year. The solar day that defined UT is gradually
becoming longer over the eons, and the number of solar days
per year is getting fewer. Thismeans that the UT second (being
exactly 1/86,400 unit of a mean solar day) is also getting
longer, which is why an epoch such as 1900.0 was picked for
the epoch year to define the “standard” UT second.
Before beginning any model of Earthʼs past rotation rates, it
is necessary to look for a time unit that is not changing. As
Earth decelerates, the length of the day noticeably increases.
Thismeans that neither the LOD nor the mean solar second for
UT, which is 1/86,400 of a solar day, can be used as a uniform
time unit without specifying an epoch.
Earthʼs orbital period seems to have no secular change, as
suggested by numerical integrations over millions of years and
by literal expansions of algebraic theories that have not
produced evidence for secular changes in the semimajor axis to
at least third order (Simon et al. 1994). By Keplerʼs third law, a
stable semimajor axis of the orbit ensures a stable orbital period
in the absence of external forces. Also, if Earthʼs entire
rotational momentum is transferred into its solar orbit, the
change in the new period would be less than 15 s. Gravitational
planetary perturbations to Earthʼs orbit cause the tropical year
to vary from one year to the next, but those perturbations
The Astronomical Journal, 151:103 (12pp), 2016 April Deines & Williams

Table 1
Paleontological Results of Earth Rotation in Solar days yr−1

Source Samples Eons Rotation Rate α

Millions of Years Ago Solar days yr−1 Results 10−8 rot yr−2

Pannella (1972b) 2** −1850 442 −4.149

Pannella (1972a) 3** −1750 532 −9.529
Zhu & Huang (2003) Many −1300 546 −13.904
Sonnet & Chan (1998) 1385** −900 464±13.5 −10.973
Pannella (1972a) 1** −900 416 −5.640
Vanyo & Awramik (1985) 4** −850±50a 445.75±32 s.d.b −9.472
Williams (2000) Many −620c 400±7 −5.606
McGugan (1967) 1** −525 410±10d −8.525
Pannella (1972a) 1** −510 442 −15.051
Mazzullo (1971) 1 −425 421 −13.120
Wells (1970, pp. 3–9) 1 −425 412 11.002
Mazzullo (1971) 2 −415 419e −12.954
Wells (1970, pp. 3–9) 1 −415 400 −8.375
Mazzullo (1971) 6 −375 409±3 s.d.f −11.669
Scrutton (1964) 1 −375 401 −9.535
Wells (1970, pp. 3–9) 12 −373 398±6 s.d.g −8.782
Wells (1970, pp. 3–9) 1 −328 398 −9.987
Pannella (1972a) 1 −360 405.5h −11.183
Pannella (1972a) 3 −340 398.3±0.5 s.d.i −9.723
Wells (1970, pp. 3–9) 2 −294 386±4j −7.061
Pannella (1972a) 3 −290 383.5±4.8 s.d.k −6.296
Pannella (1972a) 3 −220 371.6±6.1 s.d.l −2.890
Berry & Barker (1968) 8* −70 370.3±2.2m −7.225
Pannella (1972a) 3* −70 375.1±3.9 s.d.n −14.083

Result using All Data Average E-8 rot yr−2 −9.447

(All symbols in Figure 1) Std. Dev. E-8 rot yr−2 3.196
Acceleration E-8 rad yr−2 −59.358

Result using reports with Average E-8 rot yr−2 −9.693

six or more samples Std. Dev. E-8 rot yr−2 3.063
(Square symbols Fig. 1) Acceleration E-8 rad yr−2 −60.095

Result from Fossil Data Unweighted Average E-8 rot yr−2 −9.592
(shaded table) Std. Dev. E-8 rot yr−2 2.962
(plotted in Figure 2) Acceleration E-8 rad yr−2 −60.270

Result from Fossil Data Weighted Average E-8 rot yr−2 −9.377
(shaded table) Std. Dev. E-8 rot yr−2 3.336
(plotted in Figure 2) Acceleration E-8 rad yr−2 −58.918

Notes.
*

**
Result obtained indirectly from conversion of lunar to annual counts.
Special stromatolite processing.
a
Dated uncertainty is given in report without justification.
b
Reported samples were 409, 435, 454, and 485 days yr−1 with mean and s.d. given.
c
Earlier papers listed 650 Mya, but boundary changed from 570 to 540 Mya, resulting in late Precambrian date change to 620 Mya for rhythmites. Longest
continuous laminae reported by Williams is 60 yr.
d
Original abstract listed 400–420 days yr−1, so midpoint is reported here.
e
Reported two samples with each being 419 days yr−1, so no uncertainty is given.
f
Six reported samples were 403, 409 × 2, and 410 × 3.
g
Twelve graphed dots showed 384, 390 × 2, 396, 399, 400 × 4, 402, 403, and 406.
h
This sample was over 6 yr old showing six sequences, but individual years were unreported. Individual samples extended over n years will be shown as (n).
Reported three samples of 399(4), 398 (9), and 398 days yr–1(5).
i
j
Graphical data displayed two samples of 382 and 390 days yr−1.
k
Reported three samples of 389(3), 381.5 (5), and 380 days yr–1(5).
l
Reported three samples of 375.3 (3), 364.5 (2), and 375 days yr–1(2).
m
Report gave lunar mean of 29.65 and uncertainty of 0.18, which is converted to an annual value by multiplying the annual projection by 0.18/29.65.
n
Reported three samples of 379 (4), 375 (1), and 371.2 days yr–1(4).

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The Astronomical Journal, 151:103 (12pp), 2016 April
average out over the long term, especially over millennia.
Therefore, we adopt the mean year as a consistent unit of time.
The following equations are used to construct Table 1 from
the paleontological records:
w = w 0 + a ( T - T0) (1 )
1 to grow in columns owing to oozing of the inert material being
q = q0 + w 0 ( T - T0) + a ( T - T0)2 (2 )
2
where
θ = Earthʼs rotational angle in rotations at time T in years,
θ0 = Earthʼs rotational angle at the epoch time T0 in years,
ω = Earthʼs angular velocity in rot yr−1 at time T,
ω0 = Earthʼs angular velocity in rot yr−1 at the epoch time
T0, and
α = Earthʼs constant angular acceleration in rot yr−2.
Table 1is different from the graph of the tidal friction data
presented by Deines & Williams (2009) that was based heavily
on Wells (1963), which caused geophysicists and paleontolo-
gists to examine fossil growth rings for determining Earthʼs
annual rotation rate eons ago. Wells (1963) graphed the
astronomical dictum that Earthʼs rotation decelerates at the rate
of 2 s every 100,000 yr(i.e., the LOD is increasing by
20 μs yr−1). Wells (1963) only described two data points from
fossils, which were not included in his Figure 1. Wells (1970,
pp. 3–9) corrected the deficiencies with more data in the final
summary.
The intent of this section is to examine many available
paleontological records to include in Table 1 for the grand
average as the best estimate of Earthʼs rotational deceleration.
Early paleontological papers dealing with geochronometry
concentrated on corals, bivalves, and brachiopods, which have
general daily growth increments that indicate annual variations.
With successive alteration of daylight and darkness, growth
occurs faster during daylight. Annual variations could be due to
changes in daylight length, water temperature, or even food
supply. Shorter periods are found within the annual variations,
which can imply seasonal fluctuations or lunar synodic months.
Variability in specimen growths was verified in recent animal
growth tests. Although the fossil record was reliable, it did
require many samples or long, continuous growth histories to
get better estimates for Earthʼs rotation rate in ancient times.
Critics pointed out the inaccuracies of the raw fossil record,
which were found later. Many factors, including environment
changes, weather, erosion, disease, personal bias, etc., could
alter the physical growth patterns and the counts. There is
general agreement that the growth rate varies annually in corals
and shells, but there are many variations and factors. Lambeck
(1980, pp. 363–381) and Scrutton (1978, pp. 154–172) give
extensive details and references concerning the various growth
patterns and influences. We are unable to provide a critical
error analysis owing to the lack of data provided in the original
reports. We will provide error estimates that are available in the
publications, or else we will use standard deviations (s.d.) to
estimate the distribution of errors.
For earlier eons, the organic sedimentary structures or
stromatolites (lamina created by alternate layers of algae and
sediments compressed into rock columns) can be a paleonto-
logical clock. Stromatolites were studied to fill in the period
before fossils were deposited. The assumption is that cyclical
rhythms are preserved as algae grow in thin mats or layers, trap
and bind daily sediment deposits, and repeat the process to
4
Deines & Williams
form more layers. The environmental events, both random
storms or erosion and cyclic happenings, tend to make
stromatolites less precise as calendars than bivalves or other
invertebrates. One should expect gaps in the stromatolite
record, but full cycles may be produced if enough samples are
interleaved together to get the whole record. Stromatolites tend
layered with algae. Another sediment called rhythmites has
been found, consisting of siltstone and fine sandstone deposited
in layers to form rock strata, probably caused by tidal ebbing
and flowing. Studies involving rhythmites and stromatolites
usually involve meticulous processes. Some stromatolites were
photographed as the cores were polished repeatedly while
shaving off a thickness of tenths of a millimeter, effectively
creating pictorial slices. This process destroys the specimen,
but it preserves a full three-dimensional record that can be
reexamined as necessary.
Much of the pertinent literature cites raw data from earlier
papers, making it hard to find any new listed data and avoid
duplication. Some articles are not included in the references as
no new information was given, such as Eicherʼs review (1976)
of Wells’s (1970, pp. 3–9) paper or Lambeckʼs reviews (1978,
1980). Such articles are extremely useful to educate the novice
in the difficulties that experts encounter inreducingfindings to
a simple number of revolutions after millions of years (Mya).
Lambeck (1980) lists 16 extra fossil records from Mazzullo of
the Middle Devonian with an annual average of 405 days and
an extra fossil from the Silurian era than those listed in Table 1.
Mazzullo provided Lambeck this additional fossil information
through a personal communication in 1977, as noted in
Lambeck (1980). We prefer to use the original published data
in the literature for Table 1. Also, most sources cite only the
strata in which the specimen was found without spending
resources, such as radioactive testing, to date the fossil. In those
cases, the geologic timescale figure from Kulp (1961) was used
to estimate a date for the specimen or specimens in Table 1.
Several times, authors listed a different result for a
referenced paper than was originally published in the reference.
We assumed that this was a typographical error, and the
original result was used. One such case deserves mentioning.
McGuganʼs 1967 paper from the New Orleans meeting is only
found as an abstract, which states that the stromatolite findings
were between 400 and 420 increments from the Upper
Cambrian age. This was put into Table 1 as the average of
410±10 solar days at 525 Mya. Pannella, a meticulous writer,
wrote, “McGugan (1967) had published a figure of 424 days
for the length of the Middle Cambrian year.” Pannella could
have been in the audience of that presentation, or, as implied in
the acknowledgments section (Pannella 1972a), McGugan had
personal communications with Pannella well after the con-
ference. Although the entry of 424 solar days at 525 Mya for
(McGugan 1967) is probably correct, the original listing from
his abstract is still used to be consistent with the other Table 1
entries.
Many of the results in Table 1 have theoretical calculations
used to obtain the number of revolutions per year. These
particular results have an asterisk placed by the specimens.
Often, fossils were used to count the days of the lunar synodic
month, and from various formulae, such as the changing rate in
orbital dynamics, the number of months per year can be
calculated. Growth increments in bivalves are affected when
low tides uncover the shell, which inhibits growth. The daily
The Astronomical Journal, 151:103 (12pp), 2016 April
bands can be divided in two where semidaily tides exist. In
temperate latitudes, the cooler winter season inhibits growth in
corals and bivalves so that the annual cycle can be identified in
the band patterns.
Two highly theoretical papers on corals must be qualified.
Scrutton (1964) wrote, “Extrapolating, therefore, from the
astronomical calculations alone, the Middle Devonian year was
approximately 399 days in length.” Even Williams (1989b)
wrote, “I have not plotted the value of 399 days per Middle
Devonian year used by Scrutton (1964, 1978) which is not
based on coral data but is, in fact, an estimate of the Earthʼs
rotation rate during the Middle Devonian based on astronom-
ical calculations of the present deceleration of the Earthʼs
rotation.” However, Scrutton did write that specimen OUM
DT2 had 401 ridges between the two edges at two swells. So,
Scruttonʼs written result is replaced in Table 1 by the single
coral finding of 401 solar days at 375 Mya. Based on Scruttonʼs
calculations, Johnson & Nudds (1975, pp. 27–42) extrapolated
the supposed 13.01 synodic months in the Devonian year to
12.95 months in the Lower Carboniferous (Viséan) year that
they were analyzing, and they calculated that the Viséan year
was 391.09 days long. This result is so precise that it raises
immediate doubts. Johnson and Nudds used 10 coral samples
to get a mean of 30.2 days for the lunar synodic month in the
Lower Carboniferous eon. However, they cite both Wells
(1963) and Scrutton to get their extrapolation for the linear
relationship of lunar months per year in ancient times. They
claimed they hadclear evidence that “the number of days per
year is decreasing and that the Earthʼs rotation about its polar
axis must be slowing down.” Unfortunately, they didn’t realize
that the astronomical dictum used by Wells guaranteed the
obvious outcome. Therefore, their paper was not included in
Table 1.
Pannella (1972a) also wrote, “Mazzullo (1971) did publish a
list of his counts but did not give the important information of
how many yearly sequences he counted for each of the 50
specimens.” However, Pannella (1972a) did include the
number of sequences (i.e., yearly growthpatterns per speci-
men) in his reports, which are annotated in Table 1.
The mathematics behind stromatolites is simpler and set up
in ratios from pattern recognition from direct counts of lamina.
Pannella (1972b) defined the five classes of periodic patterns in
stromatolites as follows: first-order daily lamination (I)
contains the daily deposit (basic bipartite 24hr unit, made of
clastic [corpuscular]and an organic-rich layer), second-order
tidal band (II;period of 14.8 days made of two groups of
lamina with different thicknesses), third-order monthly band
(III; period of 29.5 day succession of two second-order bands,
one better developed and generally less incomplete than the
other), the fourth-order seasonal band (IV; latitude-dependent
band consists of several second-order bands grouped in zones,
often detected visually owing to color differences), and the
fifth-order annual band (V; period of 365 days that the unit is
made of two fourth-order bands, one organic-rich and dark, the
other organic-poor and light). Ratios are made by counting the
number of I-order lamina per II-order bands, and by counting
the number of II-order per V-order bands. Pannella showed that
direct counting of I-order lamina per V-order band in long
continuous specimens resulted in gross undercounting of days
per year, because the growth layers are often interrupted. For
example, subaerial exposure interrupts growth that shortens a
complete cycle, which can happen in long, continuous
5
Deines & Williams
specimens. Out of the hundreds of stromatolite specimens,
specific layers with complete lamina have to be found (often at
other sites) to complete the actual record (see Table 2 of
Pannella 1972b). Hence, many papers on stromatolites used
this technique of constructing two ratios and multiplying them
together to get a truer count of days per annum. These results
were given a double asterisk in Table 1.
Interestingly, Kahn & Pompea (1978) documented that the
nautilus shells have ridges in each chamber, which might be
useful for geochronometry. Recent nautilus shells have 29–30
ridges in each chamber (about the number of days per lunar
month), and the ridges decrease per chamber with older fossil
shells. The results formed a monotonically increasing cubic
curve from the earliest shell fragments of 420 Mya to the
present. The earliest nautilus fragments show nine ridges per
chamber. A simple conclusion might be made that the Moonʼs
orbital period was 9 days about 420 Mya. With the solar day
being shorter then, this would make the past lunar orbit
approach 8 present days in length. This is not supported by
main-line research, such as documented by Pannella et al.
(1968), that the lunar period was 31 ancient days long about
500 Mya. One alternate explanation is that the nautilus slowly
evolved by changing its growth pattern within its chambers
from nineridges per lunar month when it first lived to 30 ridges
each month. Regrettably, the nautilus data are not used for our
study.
2.2. Determination of Rotational Deceleration from
Paleontological Evidence
Table 1 includes all valid reports found on the subject of
Earthʼs historical rotation history. Where a time span was given
in the paper, the midpoint was used for the entry, such as
McGuganʼs time span of 400–420 Mya being replaced with
410 Mya in Table 1. When multiple specimens were listed, the
average of days per year from all specimens of that eon as listed
in the report was inserted instead of the preferred specimen,
such as was done with the four specimens in the Vanya and
Awramik paper. Wells’s (1970, pp. 3–9) results, which
included his earlier results, are taken from that paperʼs graph.
In the effort to extract the graphical data, possible interpolation
errors may be embedded in the tabular entries. The updated
result of Sonnet & Chan (1998) for the 900 Mya era was
inserted in Table 1, rather than the Sonnet et al. (1996) report.
For the same reason, the Pannella (1972b) report was chosen
for its results of 900 and 510 Mya eras over Pannella (1972a),
which avoids duplication. The data are converted using
Equation (1).
We require that the intercept of a straight line must go
through 366.2421987 days = ω1900 for the epoch T1900. The
present rotation rate is more precise than any of the fossil data.
This leaves only the slope of the line as the single degree of
freedom in a least-squares fit of the linear equation yi = m
(T – T1900) + 366.2422, where yi is the number of sidereal days
per year from the fossils and Ti is in Mya (annual seasonal year
is closest to the tropical year). Define the ith residual, ri, and the
sum of squares, S, to be
n
ri = yi - m ( Ti - T1900) - 366.2422 and S = åri2.
i=1
To find the minimum sum of squares for the slope m, take the
derivative of S with respect to m and set the derivative to 0.
The Astronomical Journal, 151:103 (12pp), 2016 April
Figure 1. Effect of tidal friction on Earth rotation. Reports with <6 specimens
are plotted with diamonds;reports with …6 specimens are plotted with squares.
Rearranging the resulting terms, the equation is
å ( Ti - T1900) Yi
m= .
å ( Ti - T1900)
2 historical details in Earthʼs rotation rate.
It is seen that the least-squares fit with the requirement that the
intercept be 366.2422 sidereal days will result in weighting the
oldest fossil more than the most recent fossil data, which we
will not accept. Thus, we will use the mean, rather than a least-
squares fit, for equally weighted data to estimate the slope. The
data have three significant figures, and the uncertainty, δ, is
reduced statistically by d n . With n > 100 samples, the final
average will be given in four significant figures. The
uncertainty will be expressed as the s.d., because most reports
fail to give uncertainties with the raw data. The significant
figures deal with precision, not accuracy.
Table 1 includes every actual observation to obtain the
overall average. For consistency, the solar data are converted
into sidereal days, representing the number of 2π radian
rotations counted per year.
A graph of the tabulated data is shown as Figure 1. The slope
is the average of the individual deceleration rates obtained from
the plotted data shown in both Figures 1 and 2.
Table 1 shows the final results of various paleontological
reports based on single or multiple specimens. Most reports did
not provide enough information to weight the data, such as the
quality of the specimens, the total continuous length in years of
each specimenʼs record, or how some of the values were
obtained. The model used for tidal friction is a simple constant
rotational deceleration, which will obtain a mean constant slope
for the straight line. So, we computed an average for the
constant rotational deceleration using the data and Equation (2).
The slope is the average of the individual decelerations
obtained from the data in each figure.
Figure 1 confirms that the best estimator for Earthʼs rotation
rate is the normal mean when many independent samples are
available to measure its effects. Elimination of the oldest outlier
result could be tested by statistical criteria. The sedimentary
deposits have larger variations from the straight line, and fossil
data seem to indicate a more linear trend. That could be the
resultof incomplete stromatolite records, because it is more
difficult to find such ancient samples at different sites scattered
over various latitudes. The fossil data do show some cyclical
variation, which could be due to the moving tectonic plates that
change the coastlines over hundreds of millions of years. There
6
Deines & Williams
Figure 2. Earthʼs rotational deceleration from fossil growth rings.
have been many ice ages and global thaws, so glacial
rebounding is expected to have much shorter periods. More
fossils will be needed to fill in the gaps and provide more
If one speculates that the solar count is off by +5 days or if
an eon is off by +25 million years, the respective error can
drive the result off by 15%or −6%, respectively, if applied to
the Wells data (circa −373 Mya). Roughly, an error of 1 day is
about 3% or a 4 million year error is about 1%. Thus, the
individual paleontological data can give reasonable accuracy
for tidal friction, and averaging would further reduce offsets to
obtain the best statistical estimate.
If one selected only those reports with six or more specimens
(six reports shown as squares instead of diamond markers in
Figure 1), the average rate of deceleration is −9.693E-8
compared to the overall average of −9.447E-8 rot yr−2. The
fossil data shown in Figure 2 are sufficient to determine the
linear effect of tidal friction on Earthʼs angular rotation. Using
only the fossil data and treating each row as an independent
entry, the average deceleration is −9.592E-8 rot yr−2, with an
s.d. of 2.962E-8 rot yr−2, giving an acceleration of
(−60.52±18.61)E-8 rad yr−2. We included the Berry &
Barker (1968) report for that unweighted average, but excluded
it when calculating the weighted average as it had eight
specimens. Berry and Barker carefully measured the ridges in
the bivalve specimens between high tides, which is between
full Moon and new Moon phases per fortnight. They obtained
24.98±0.04 ridges, which they interpreted that 12.49 lunar
months per year occurred in the Late Cretaceous year. This
means that the Moon had a larger orbit 70 Mya, which shrank
to the present 13.37 orbits per year and is very slowly
increasing owing to the transfer of Earthʼs rotational angular
momentum into the lunar orbit. No long-term lunar theory
supports this scenario. However, if one assumes that the
bivalves grow ridges when the Moon is visible at night, there is
about one day on either side of the new Moon at nearly the
same meridian as the Sun that would make the Moon invisible
at dusk between waning and waxing lunar crescents. Add that
gap to 24.98 to get a realistic lunar period. Berry and Barkerʼs
annual day estimate is too pessimistic, so we will not include it
in the weighted fossil average owing to that reportʼs large
number of specimens. The weighted average rotational
deceleration is (−9.377±3.336 s.d.)E-8 rot yr−2 when adjust-
ing all the fossil data by the number of specimens.
Using the number of seconds in the tropical year at 1900.0,
the weighted average rotational deceleration from fossil data is
The Astronomical Journal, 151:103 (12pp), 2016 April
Figure 3. Geometry of Earthʼs spin axis relative to lunar orbital plane and
ecliptic.
equivalent to (−5.916±2.105 s.d.)E-22 rad s−2. This is within
1.1% of the total tidal deceleration (−5.98±0.22)E-22 rad s−2
found by Christodoulidis et al. (1988), who used precision laser
and Doppler range data from artificial satellites. The team used
the GEM-TI model to simultaneously recover a complete
gravitational field to degree and order 36 and to solve 66 tidal
coefficients representing the longest wavelength coefficients of
12 major tides with 550 other ocean tidal terms of 32 major and
minor tides. In all, 17 satellites were used to collect precise
range data taken from seven third-generation lasertracking
systems (<5 cm) and Tranet Doppler from Seasat and Oscar 14
satellites. The data were plotted in an Earth equatorial system in
the GEM-T1 model. The constants used to generate the normal
equations for the GEM-T1 geopotential model are listed in that
reportʼs Table 4. The perturbed orbital elements provided the
solution through various processes to obtain Earthʼs rotational
deceleration. Our standard deviation of 2.106E-22 rad s−2 is
larger than the deviation of 0.22E-22 rad s−2 from Christolou-
lidis et al., because of the long-term periodic variations
embedded in the fossil data (see Figure 2). If more fossil data
are discovered to complete the paleontological history, one
may be able to analyze the contributions of various changes to
Earthʼs moment of inertia, such as glacial rebound, continental
drifts, etc., over eons.
It is also noted that the average rotational deceleration is
96.6% of the expected −6.203E-22 rad s−2 that Stephenson &
Morrison (1995) computed for tidal friction. For the remaining
analysis in this paper, we will choose the average deceleration
rate obtained from the fossil data.
3. REEVALUATING THE PHYSICAL BASIS OF THE
LEAP SECOND AND THE UT EPOCH
This new evaluation for Earthʼs deceleration can now be
applied to check the claims that Earthʼs tidal friction is the sole
basis for the timescale divergence between UT, based on
Earthʼs rotation, and TAI, based on atomic clocks. For
example, McCarthy et al. (2008) wrote,
On the basis of Newcombʼs formula for the
geometric mean longitude of the Sun, the sec-
ond of ET was defined ... as “the fraction 1/
31,556,925.9747 of the tropical year for 1900
January 0 at 12 hr ephemeris time” (BIPM 2006,
p. 149). Newcombʼs formula was derived from
7
Deines & Williams
astronomical observations performed over
the interval from 1750 to 1892
(Newcomb 1895a, 1895b). Consequently, the
second of ET had the same duration as a second
of UT1 that would have been observed in about
1820, the approximate mean epoch of the
observations analyzed by Newcomb. (Note,
incidentally, that 1900 was the epoch of a tro-
pical year of 31,556,925.9747 s of ET, while
1820 was the epoch of a LOD of 86,400 s
of UT1.)
Their comments about 1820 are based on a parabola
published by Stephenson & Morrison (1995) and by McCarthy
& Babcock (1986, p. 281), which spanned data between 1656
and 1984. An epoch in any timescale is a chosen time instant
for reference, not an average date from a time span of years.
The year 1900 is the epoch for UT, formerly called Greenwich
Mean Time (GMT), in Newcombʼs formula, which is based on
Earthʼs rotation rate. Otherwise, any mean solar day is exactly
86,400 UT1 seconds by definition, so that any year can be an
epoch of UT1 in UT1 seconds. The epoch fixes the size of the
UT1 second relative to the year, because Earthʼs rotational
deceleration causes fewer days per year over eons. UT was the
only timescale used until Clemence proposed the concept of ET
in 1948, which was later approved formally by the IAU in
1960. 1820 is simply the midpoint of the selected data span,
and their analysis is explained by a constant angular
deceleration of Earthʼs rotation.
The epoch for Newcombʼs formula can be calculated
independent of fossils. The epoch T0 is computed from
Equation (1). Earthʼs rotation rate of 7.292115855E-5 rad s−1
is obtained from Newcombʼs formula cited above by dividing
the number of sidereal days of 2π radians each by the number
of seconds in the standard tropical year of 1900 (refer to Deines
& Williams [2007] for obtaining the seconds in 1900). This
rotation rate is identical to the one quoted by Aoki et al. (1982)
and is identical to the rate still used in the World Geodetic
System 1984 (NIMA 2000) in computations made in the GPS.
The number of solar days in year 1900 is 365.2421987 by
dividing the number of seconds in 1900 by 86,400 s in a solar
day. The Explanatory Supplement of the Astronomical
Almanac (Seidelmann 1992, p. 698) lists the tropical year as
365.2421897 solar days for 1990, which can be converted to
sidereal days in radian units and divided by the number of
seconds in a standard tropical year to get Earthʼs rotation rate at
1990. Use the deceleration α from artificial satellites as
calculated by Stephenson & Morrison (1995). Insert these
values into Equation (1) to get T0 = 1898. The ω–ω0 term in
Equation (1) leaves only two significant digits after subtraction.
All these values used in Equation (1) are independent of our
fossil determination of tidal deceleration and are all measured
values of Earthʼs rotational rate that determines UT1. In any
case, the epoch is rounded to 1900 for T0 as the UT epoch,
which demonstrates that 1820 is not the epoch.
So, why is 1820 the supposed epoch of UT1? The answer is
found again by Equation (1). Choose two times TA and TB and
the associated rotation rates ωA and ωB. Create two equations
by using Equation (1) to replace ω and T at events A and B
with ωA, TA, ωB, and TB, respectively, then add the two
The Astronomical Journal, 151:103 (12pp), 2016 April
equations together and divide by 2 to obtain
1 2w 0 2aT0 a
( wA + w B) = - + ( TA + TB)
2 2 2 2
wA + w B ⎛ TA + TB ⎞
= w 0 - aT0 + a ⎜ ⎟.
2 ⎝ 2 ⎠
Note that the left term in Equation (3) is the numerical average
angular rate of a data span bordered by points A and B. As the
numerical years are in unitary increments, the right term is both
the numerical average of the span of years and the midpoint.
Other terms are constants in Equation (3). Stephenson &
Morrison (1995) cited their earlier paper of 1984 on the
observed lunar occultations as a function of UT between 1656
and 1984. The raw data were ΔT = ET–UT. McCarthy &
Babcock (1986) published a similar paper using Stephenson
and Morrisonʼs same data, with one exception of Martinʼs
(1969) data in the 1656–1860 interval, which would offset raw
data in the following years. The total data spanned 1656–1984
with a midpoint of 1820 for both papers. Serendipitously,
Newcombʼs midpoint is 1821 using data from 1750 through
1892. If the ET epoch is claimed to be 1900, then the raw data
of ΔT ≈ 0 will indicate the UT epoch. Stephenson & Morrison
(1995) showed that ΔT was virtually zero at 1900 and zero at
1900 from their fitted parabola, while McCarthy and Babcock
showed that the raw data are zero in 1902. In McCarthy and
Babcockʼs paper, ΔT = +11.33 s at 1820 in the raw data, and
the fitted parabola showed −20.0 s at 1820 for ΔT = ET–
UT;neither are close to zero. Again, 1820 is not a likely epoch
for UT.
Both Stephenson & Morrison (1984) and McCarthy &
Babcock (1986) will get a symmetric fitted parabola, because
both used the average angular velocity (rate that Earth spins)
between the years 1656 and 1984. If the angular deceleration,
α(e.g., tidal friction), is essentially a constant, then the angular
velocity changes linearly (i.e., ω = ω1820 + α{T – T1820}) from
maximum at 1656 to minimum at 1984. It is an easy proof to
show that the average angular velocity, ω1820, is the same at the
midpoint and median when α is a constant. Integrating the ω
equation will obtain the angular displacement equation for θ.
ET incorporates a constant angular velocity where a time is
assigned by a meridian transit of a star (i.e., θET = θ1820 +
ω1820{T – T1820}), while UT has an additional constant angular
deceleration (i.e., θUT = θ1820 + ω1820{T – T1820} + α
{T – T1820}2/2). The timescale difference ΔT = ET–UT will
be ΔT = −α{T – T1820}2/2. So, both papers will have an
artificial symmetric parabola for ΔT centered at 1820 when
using the average angular velocity and using the same time
span of data.
We conclude that the 1820 claim for the UT epoch is not
valid. Rather, 1820 is simply the midpoint of the same ΔT data
span in both papers. The fact that the ΔT data and fitted
parabolas are symmetric and a minimum at the midpoint is
characteristic that UT is affected by a constant angular
deceleration and ET assumes a constant angular velocity. If
no overlapping subsets of the ΔT data span were selected, the
minimums of the fitted parabolas would probably be at
different midpoints and well displaced from 1820. The raw
ΔT data confirm that the UT epoch is 1900 (ΔT ≈ 0 at 1900).
It is also supported by the independent confirmation from 1990
Deines & Williams
rotational UT data (T0 = 1900). Newcomb did his work
correctly with the stated 1900 epoch in the formula for the
mean motion of the Sun, which produces the equivalent time
for UT1. Newcombʼs mean solar position formula defined a
smooth GMT (now called a UT1 timescale), which was the
(3 )
only international timescale used at that time. The epochs of ET
and UT are needed to compute the effect of tidal friction using
Equation (2), where the angular displacement θ is converted
into the equivalent of sidereal hour angles (15° = 1 hr).
4. EARTHʼS ROTATIONAL DECELERATION AND
LUNAR ORBITAL DECELERATION
One needs to determine whether Earthʼs rotational decelera-
tion is consistent with other related values, such as the lunar
orbit deceleration values that have been published. Earthʼs
rotational deceleration that is obtained from the fossil data
should transfer rotational momentum to the lunar orbit by
momentum transfer. Our fossil analysis has established a value
of the tidal deceleration over hundreds of millions of years—far
longer than has been accomplished previously. Within the level
of significance obtained for tidal friction, we make the
following assumptions to simplify the derivation. The obliquity
of the ecliptic is assumed to be the mean value of 23° 26′
21″ = 23°. 43916 for the inclination of Earthʼs spin axis relative
to the ecliptic (Seidelmann 1992). For the next 1 million years,
the obliquity may be between 22° 13′ 44″ and 24° 20′ 50″
(Berger 1976), but such variations will not degrade the
calculations in the cosine projection of Earthʼs rotational
angular momentum to the ecliptic over hundreds of millions of
years. We will not consider tidal frequency components or
Doodson numbers to model tidal friction, which requires
extensive knowledge of the amplitudes of each component in
the Fourier series analysis. Such tidal effects are already
included in the fossil data, making tidal models unnecessary in
this analysis. Some may argue that the eccentricity of the lunar
orbit induces tidal dissipation that affects the longitude
evolution, but our estimates justify that we can ignore this
contribution. For example, the mean lunar eccentricity is
0.05490 with a 3232 day period of revolution of the lunar
perigee (Seidelmann 1992), so that this effect averages out over
centuries. We are using the mean motion of the Moon, the
mean distance of the Moon from the barycenter, the mean
distance ofEarthʼs center from the barycenter, the mean
inclination of the lunar orbit to the ecliptic as 5°. 145396, the
mean inclination of the lunar orbit to the lunar equator as
6°. 683, and the period of revolution of the line of nodes as 6798
days = 18.6123 yr(Seidelmann 1992). The derivation will
calculate the transfer of Earthʼs rotational angular momentum
to the lunar orbit. Only long-term effects that occur over a
century will be needed, as short-term effects like lunar
librations will average out. The derivationʼs purpose is to
obtain a first-order calculation for consistency between our tidal
friction result independently obtained from fossils and the
published findings of the lunar orbital deceleration.
4.1. Derivation of Lunar Orbit Deceleration
from Tidal Friction
The lunar tidal friction deceleration will transfer a portion of
Earthʼs rotational angular momentum into the orbital angular
momentum between Earth and the Moon. Solar tides are
8
The Astronomical Journal, 151:103 (12pp), 2016 April Deines & Williams

roughly half the height of lunar tides, so 2/3 of the total rm=mean distance of Moonʼs center from Earth–Moon
deceleration of Earthʼs rotation should be attributed to the lunar barycenter=3.844×108 m.
tidal deceleration that is transferred to the Earth–Moon orbit.
The balanced moment arm equation at the barycenter obtains
This rough estimate can be refined by comparing the
the value for re:
gravitational tidal forces of the Moon and Sun directly on
Earth, yielding the ratio of a lunar tidal acceleration to a solar MM
tidal acceleration on Earth, which is 2.21 (Olah 2009). For the ME re = MM rm or re = rm = 0.01230002 rm. (5 )
ME
first-order calculations, assume that the Moon is spherical and
uniform in density so that its moment of inertia will be 2/5 The next step is to take the derivative of Equation (5), which is
MMR2 with the mean radius R = RM. Assume that Earth has a zero when no external torque L exists. By definition, the
uniform density and is an oblate spheroid spinning about its derivative of Earthʼs rotation rate is the total deceleration α of
semiminor axis. This moment of inertia is 2/5 MER2, where R which the lunar contribution is 2.21/3.21 of the total, or
is the semimajor axis, which is reasonable for a first-order
dw E
calculation. a lunar º - = - 4.056 ´ 10-7 rad yr-2 .
The geometry of the lunar orbit, the ecliptic, and Earthʼs spin dt
axis must be specified before proceeding with the derivation. Take the derivative of Equation (4), set it to zero, and move the
Earthʼs mean obliquity of the ecliptic is 23°26′ first term to the left:
21 448 = 23°. 4392911 (Seidelmann 1992), so that the transfer
of spin angular momentum to Earthʼs orbit would be a cosine 2 dr
projection of 23°. 439. The lunar mean inclination to the ecliptic - a ME RE2 cos ( IE ) = 2we ME re e
5 dt
is 5°. 145396 (Seidelmann 1992), but the lunar line of nodes has drm d w
a precession of about 18.6 yr. The Moon rotates about its spin + 2w m MM rm + ME re2 e 
axis on average as fast as its orbital frequency around the dt dt
2 dw M dw
Earth–Moon barycenter, which is also the same for Earthʼs + MM RM cos (IM )
2
+ MM rm2 m
orbital frequency when circling this barycenter. Also, the 5 dt dt
Moonʼs equator is 6°. 683 relative to its orbital plane, so that any ⎛ MM ⎞ drm
transfer of angular momentum is modified by the cosine = 2w m MM rm ⎜ 1 + ⎟
⎝ ME ⎠ dt
projection of the lunar spin axis onto the lunar orbital plane.
With an eccentricity of 0.05409, which is nearly circular, the ⎛2 ⎛ ⎞ ⎛ M ⎞ ⎞ dw
rate of precession of the orbital plane is virtually constant. The + ⎜⎜ MM RM2 cos ⎜ IM ⎟ + MM rm2 ⎜ 1 + M ⎟ ⎟⎟ m . (6 )
⎝5 ⎝ ⎠ ⎝ ME ⎠ ⎠ dt
perpendicular vector to the lunar orbital plane varies between
18°. 294 and 28°. 585 relative to Earthʼs spin axis with an overall Using Keplerʼs third law to relate mean motion, n, and orbital
average of 23°. 439. Also, the lunisolar precession causes semimajor axis, a ≈ rm,
Earthʼs spin axis to move in a complete cycle in roughly 26,000
yr, while maintaining the same inclination to the ecliptic. a 3n2 = G ( ME + MM) 4p 2, (7 )
Figure 3 shows the orientation of Earthʼs spin axis relative to −1
the ecliptic and the precession of the lunar orbital plane. Over one gets nM+E = 2.665309E-6 rad s for Earth and the Moon
the long term, the average contribution from Earthʼs transfer of orbiting about their mutual barycenter. Take the derivative of
rotational angular momentum to the lunar orbit will be a cosine Equation (7) and rearrange to get
projection of 23°. 439. n˙ a˙ 3n
The total angular momentum (H) equation is 2 = -3 , or n˙ = - a˙ . (8 )
n a 2a
(
H = IEarth w E cos ( IE ) + ME re2 we ) In Equation (8), n = wm = we , a = re +rm ≈rm to four
dw m drm
( ( )
+ IMoon w M cos IM + MM rm2 w m ) (4 ) significant figures, n˙ =
dt
, and a˙ =
dt
. Substitute Equa-
tion (8) into Equation (6)and solve for the radial derivative:
where
drm
ME=Earth mass=5.9742×1024 kg, a˙ = =
dt
MM=Moon mass=0.0123002 ME, 2
ωE=Earthʼs sidereal rotation rate = 366.2421987 rot yr−1, - ME RE2 cos (IE ) alunar
5
ωM=ωe=ωm=Moonʼs sidereal orbital frequency ⎛ MM ⎞ 3 wm ⎛ 2 ⎛ M ⎞⎞
= 2π/27.32166 days = 84.225029 rad yr−1, 2w m MM rm ⎜ 1 + ⎟- ⎜ MM RM cos (IM ) + MM rm2 ⎜ 1 + M ⎟ ⎟
2
⎝ ME ⎠ 2 rm ⎝ 5 ⎝ ME ⎠ ⎠
I= moment of inertia of uniform rotating spheroid of mass
2 = 3.005 cm yr -1.
M and semimajor axis R= MR2, (9 )
5
IE=Earthʼs average inclination to Earth–Moon orbital Substitute the result from Equation (9) into Equation (8) to
plane = mean obliquity=23°. 439,
calculate n˙ = -9.8610E - 9 rad yr-2 . The tidal friction stan-
IM=Moonʼs spin inclination to Earth–Moon orbital
plane=6°. 68, dard deviation using only fossils is 35.6% of the average, so the
RE=Earthʼs mean equatorial radius=6,378,137 m, s.d. for our calculation of ṅ is the same percentage, which will
RM=Moonʼs mean radius = 1,738,000 m, obtain the result of n˙ = (-20.34  7. 24) cy-2 . This range
re=mean distance of Earthʼs center from Earth–Moon includes the original ILE lunar deceleration of -22. 44 cy-2
barycenter=4.728×106 m, that Clemence (1948) computed from Spencer Jones and de

9
The Astronomical Journal, 151:103 (12pp), 2016 April
Sitterʼs analyses for tidal friction and later included as the tidal
term in the lunar longitude correction of the ILE (see Section 2
ofDeines & Williams [2007] for these details about the ILE).
This range of values for ṅ also encompasses the previously
mentioned estimates for the lunar orbital deceleration between
−24″ cy−2 and −26″ cy−2. The rate of change in the orbital
radius from Equation (9) is slightly less than the 3.79 cm yr−1
rate often cited (e.g., Williams & Dickey 2002), but it is within
one standard deviation. In any case, the fossil evidence has
provided an independent, accurate determination of Earthʼs
total tidal friction, which is consistent with the published lunar
orbital deceleration calculations. The standard deviation from
the fossil data may be due to periodic variations that are
superimposed over the rotational deceleration, which is
apparent in Figures 1 and 2. The lunar portion from the tidal
friction corresponds closely to the lunar tidal correction
incorporated in the ILE, which was used to calibrate the
atomic oscillators to ET. More sophisticated models (e.g.,
Earthʼs and Moonʼs geoid anomalies beyond the respective
oblate or spherical shape, nonuniform densities, elliptical
orbits, librations, perturbations in orbital parameters, preces-
sion, nutation, geological changes in the coastlines, continental
drifts, etc.) should still yield roughly the same results at this
level of precision. One conclusion is thatthe ILE incorporated
the lunar orbital deceleration of −22 44 cy2, which is very
close to −20 34 cy−2 by the first-order tidal calculation
affecting the lunar orbital deceleration. Earthʼs rotational
deceleration was adequately incorporated in the ILE model of
the Moon used to calibrate TAI, so hardly any tidal friction
contribution should remain to cause TAI to run faster
than UT1.
5. EXAMINING OFFSETS BETWEEN UT1 AND TAI
We have established that the UT1 epoch is 1900 as based on
calculations with observational evidence. Newcombʼs formula
for the fictitious mean Sun already used 1900 January 0, 0 h
Greenwich mean noon as the epoch (Seidelmann 1992). Even
ET was set at 0 January 1900 for its epoch, as approved by the
IAU General Assembly in 1955 September and again approved
by the IAU General Assembly in 1958 (Seidelmann 1992).
This is further corroborated in the Explanatory Supplement
(1961, p. 73), where Tu = 1900. In the 1977 IAU General
Assemblyʼs Resolution 5, Note 2, the first mention of the time
bias of 32.184 s is listed and attributed to the random and
systematic errors arising from setting the lengths of the TAI
second. Later, McCarthy et al. (2008) wrote, “A practical
realization of TT (Terrestrial Time) is TT = TAI + 32.184 s,”
without explaining the source of the time bias. This secular
retardation in Earthʼs rotation has been attributed to tidal
interaction (Seidelmann 1992, p. 77) to explain that UT1 trails
behind TAI.
Excluding the variations in Earth rotation rate that average
out, the secular contribution in Equation (2) is the rightmost
term of 0.5α(T–T0)2. Select T = 1958 with α = 9.377E-
8 rot yr−2 where one rotation is 86164.09 s for a sidereal day.
The resulting gap between TAI and UT1 from Earthʼs
rotational deceleration after 1900 is a loss of 13.6 s in UT1
trailing TAI. Earthʼs rotational deceleration is much smaller
10
Deines & Williams
and is not even half of the reported 32.184 s gap between TAI
and UT1 at 1958.
Consider another offset between TAI and UT1. TAI was
defined with its epoch of 1958 January 0 with the same starting
value as UT1, but TAI began to run faster than UT, such that it
was 10 s ahead by 1972 January. The secular contribution in
Equation (2) of 0.5α(T–T0)2 between 1958 and 1972 would be
0.79 s. It would take 15.7 yrfor a 1 s gap to appear between
TAI and UT1 after 1958. Some added effect must be causing
this divergence between the TAI and UT timescales that is 10
times larger than Earthʼs deceleration over this short period of
14 yr.
6. EFFECT OF TIDAL FRICTION WITH THE JULIAN DAY
CALENDAR
Astronomers commonly use the Julian Day calendar that was
proposed by Joseph Justus Scaliger in 1582 to simply count
days from an early epoch so that all recorded history would be
encompassed by it. The Julian Day calendar has an epoch of
4713 BC, which is the result of synchronizing the three main
calendars of his time. The underlying assumption is that Earthʼs
rotation rate remains steady over thousands of years, which was
the conventional thought of the sixteenth century. Immanuel
Kant (1754) proposed that tides may be responsible for
gradually slowing Earthʼs rotation rate. No one seriously
considered that concept until Adams (1853) and later Delaunay
(1859) documented that Earthʼs rotation rate had a secular
deceleration, which was the indirect result of the observed lunar
orbital deceleration that was left unexplained by Laplaceʼs
theory.
The problem is that no single society existed from 4713
BCto the present with a continuous calendar that tallied actual
days from sunset to sunset. Any remnants of ancient calendars
are often sketchy and incomplete. The Sumerians were
probably the first people that recorded stellar observations of
the Sun, Moon, and stars against everyday activities,with the
belief that deities revealed their guiding influences through the
stars.
The chronology of the ancient Near East provides a relative
framework of dates for rulers, dynasties, and various events,
but fixing that chronology absolutely is difficult. For example,
the Babylonian king Ammisaduqa was the fourth ruler
after Hammurabi in the relative calendar, but the eighth year
of Ammisaduqaʼs reign was recorded by the calendar in the
Venus tablets, which begins with the conjunction of the rise of
Venus with the new Moon that occurred either at 1574 BC,
1638 BC,or 1694 BC, depending on whether the
short, middle,or long relative chronology is used (Reiner &
Pingree 1998; Hunger & Pingree 1999). These years were
probably computed without tidal interaction in Earthʼs rotation
rate. Apply the angular deceleration of −9.377E-8 rot yr−2 in
the formula θ = α(T)2/2, and tidal friction leads to a gain of
0.604 rotations at 1574 BC, at which Venus would have risen
above the ancient Mesopotamia horizon 14.5 hr later. This
probably means that the eighth year of King Ammisaduqaʼs
reign is dated incorrectly by several decades.
If one dates such old events by using the modern rotation
rate (e.g., 365.2421987 solar days yr–1), then tidal friction
directly affects the extrapolation to the Julian Day calendar. As
its epoch is 4713 BC, there are 6727 yrthrough 2015 (no year
is labeled 0 BC). Put the angular deceleration of −9.377E-
8 rot yr−2 in the formula θ = α(T)2/2, and tidal friction leads to
The Astronomical Journal, 151:103 (12pp), 2016 April
a loss of 2.122 rotations in 6727 yr. Since the year has a
relatively constant length, the literal extrapolation of days or
rotations is incorrect technically when backdating from modern
times to earlier recorded events without tidal friction. To
miscount by 1 day, it takes 4618 yr(roughly when the first
Sumerian calendar could have been written) if tidal friction is
ignored. The count of days is linked to the number of actual
rotations per year, which decreases over centuries. One must be
cautious in backdated calculations without tidal friction,
because any early recorded astronomical event before 2600
BC would be off by about 1 day.
7. SUMMARY
With so many issues related to paleontological evidence, this
section becomes a summary of the many different findings
contained in this manuscript. We chose the year as the stable
time unit for this analysis. As no observed secular change in
Earthʼs orbital semimajor axis has yet been detected, the year is
a consistently stable time unit, rather than the UT day or UT
second. Fossil data are used to compute an average for the
constant angular acceleration of Earthʼs rotation due to tidal
friction, which is found to be −5.892E-07 rad yr−2 or −5.92E-
22 rad s−2. This is 99.8% of the total tidal deceleration of
−5.98E-22 rad s−2 found by Christodoulidis et al. (1988), who
used precision laser and Doppler range data from artificial
satellites. It is also 96.6% of the expected value for tidal friction
from Stephenson & Morrison (1995). The graph of the
paleontological data reveals that the constant deceleration
model is justified. Limiting the paleontological data to six or
more samples in any report resulted in a slightly more negative
average deceleration (2.5% different) than the grand average
over all paleontological data, which included the sedimentary
deposits. The grand unweighted average has been computed as
−9.447±3.196E-8 rot yr−2, or −5.96±2.02E-22 rad s−2,
which is 0.3% of the deceleration determined from artificial
satellites. Fossil data are direct measurements of the actual
rotation rates of Earth over many eons ago with all effects
combined (both secular and periodic). The many fossil data
show thatEarth’sdeceleration rate is nearly a constant, which
corroborates our assumption concerning tidal friction.
With this realistic value for Earthʼs deceleration rate, it is
determined that the UT1 epoch is 1900.0 as computed by
Newcomb in his formula for the Sunʼs apparent movement
over centuries. This was confirmed independently by other data
using Equation (1). It has been shown that the claimed UT
epoch of 1820 is nothing more than the midpoint of the data
spans used in other reports. This is probably caused by using an
average Earth rotational rate over the observational database for
both UT and ET, and the fitted ΔT result would then be a
symmetric parabola with a minimum at the midpoint of the
data span.
From the conservation of angular momentum of the Moon
and Earth, Earthʼs rotational deceleration will cause a lunar
orbital deceleration. From first-order calculations, Earthʼs
rotational deceleration will contribute a lunar deceleration of
n˙ = (-20.40  7.26)  cy-2 . This encompasses the original
lunar deceleration of -22. 44 cy-2 that was included as the
tidal term in the lunar longitude correction of the ILE. It also
includes several other lunar models of orbital deceleration. This
confirms that this rotational deceleration is consistent with
present lunar orbital deceleration values.
11
Deines & Williams
The previous explanation for the divergence between UT1
and TAI had been attributed to tidal friction alone. Two cases
in 1958 and 1972 demonstrate that Earthʼs rotational decelera-
tion is too small to explain the total divergence between UT
and TAI.
Earthʼs rotational deceleration directly affects dated events
based on the solar day. Backdating from the present to ancient
events like eclipses in the Julian Day calendar using a constant
rotation rate without tidal friction may cause the time
calculations to be off by as much as 1–2 days. The astronomy
community may need to explore various options to modify the
Julian Day calendar to eliminate the miscounted days starting
after its epoch at 4713 BC. Also, Earthʼs rotational deceleration
is needed to date ancient calendars accurately based on
astronomical observations, like the ancient Mesopotamian
calendar that documents the rising of Venus in conjunction
with the new Moon on the eighth year of King Ammisaduqaʼs
reign. We recommend that more fossil samples be collected to
improve the historical picture of Earthʼs dynamical changes in
rotation, because there appear to be long-term periodic
variations that may well correlate with continental drifts and
glacial isostatic adjustments.
The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial help of the
University of South Florida Mathematics Department, where
Dr. Williams was a faculty member for many years.
Special thanks are extended to Victor Slabinski for his
insightful early comments and suggestions, especially with
regard toour previous paper, which led to this paperʼs
reevaluation of tidal friction and its effects on timescales.
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