AIRCRAFT RELIABILITY

MA 4872

Part 1: Aircraft Maintenance Engineering

Nanyang Technological University

Lecture 1

Impact of Aircraft Maintenance on Reliability

11 Jan 2017
LT 5

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MA4872 Aircraft Reliability
 Quality, Reliability and Availability
Quality is Observed; Reliability is Experienced.

Reliability is the probability of a device or system to accomplish its

mission under specific conditions for a specific period of time.

Component Reliability is the ability of a device to perform a required

function under stated conditions for a stated period of time.

Inherent Reliability is the potential reliability intended by the designer.

Achieved Reliability is the reliability that a device or system

demonstrates under normal operating conditions.

Despatch Reliability is the ultimate index for air operators.

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 Despatch Reliability
A delay can be expensive;
Avoiding a delay to contribute to an accident costs many times more.

Dispatch reliability is expressed as the percentage of flights that depart

within a specified time of the scheduled departure time. Airlines allows a
15-minute margin between actual and scheduled departure time.
Corporate aircraft operators use up to an hour.

Airlines categorised the delays as follows:

1. Mechanical
2. Operations (crew, passenger, airport, apron services, etc)
3. ATC/Weather

Defining when the clock starts ticking.

Record information on all scheduled and actual departure time.

ANA’s 787 achieved 96.3% despatch reliability compared to it fleet-wide 96.5%

- Is this good or bad?
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 Despatch Reliability
Industry indicators – B787 Aircraft Reliability

Source: Boeing, 2015

13 July, 2016
Airbus has put A350-900 dispatch reliability at 98.5%.
Chief executive Fabrice Bregier said this level of reliability is “demonstrating the maturity of
this aircraft”.
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23 April 2015
787 program
The Dreamliner is now into its fourth delivery year and passing 260 delivered aircraft with a
production rate of around 10 per month. The 787-8 is just getting cash positive, that is
each aircraft cost less to produce than what the customers pay in net price while the 787-9
is cash negative, i.e. it cost more to produce than what the customers pay right now. The
average loss per aircraft during 1Q2015 was $26m.

Program deferred cost

The total program, 787-8 and -9, should pass to cash positive during 2015, according to
Boeing’s CFO, Greg Smith, i.e., Boeing should be able to start amortizing the large deferred
production cost debt they have in their balance sheet of $27bn. Smith said that once 787
production hits rate 12 in the second half of next year, the deferred production costs will
begin coming down. Only through program accounting is Boeing able to report profits on
the program. Under US accounting rules, if GAAP accounting were taken rather than
program accounting, Boeing would be reporting losses on the 787 for many years to come.

Reliability
The 787-8 started out with operational reliability being around the 96 percent mark and it
has gradually increased to the mid 98% today but the reliability has not climbed as fast as
Boeing would have liked in the last year. Boeing has the target to get this figure north of
99% during 2015.

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Engineering
A350 program
The Airbus A350 program has had a very different birth than Boeing’s 787. In the
wake of Airbus’ troubled project, the A380, the company focused on realistic program
execution with an improved program management setup and it seems to have paid
off. There are now two aircraft delivered, both to Qatar Airways, but there are around
15 more in the final production process being readied for delivery this year.

Production
Production seems to run smoothly with aircraft number three for Qatar delivery,
MSN009, being at the customer delivery center since this week. Al Baker told us
there might be an issue with the delivery as one engine is close to the allowed
vibration level and Qatar might take an issue with that but apart from Qatar’s normal
insistence on a perfect product to be presented at acceptance, there seems to be no
real issues with the aircraft at present. Batch one has rework scheduled as part of the
Final assembly process but it is a matter of weeks as compared to years for the initial
787. Airbus has installed temporary rework hangars made out of tents to cater for
this rework. They should achieve a total delivery of around 17 A350 this year.

AE 0618 - Aircraft Maintenance 6

Engineering
Production costs
There is no official information re the production costs for A350 but the initially produced aircraft will
be delivered at a substantial loss, as it usual for this kind of project. Differently to Boeing these losses
will be counted directly in this year’s Airbus and Airbus Group profit and loss. While there was a
$434m loss provision charged to the bottom line for 2013 results, there were no charges for 2014 and
none announced coming up for this year’s results.

Reliability
With the caveat that we are only looking at two aircraft flying two daily rotations between Doha-
Frankfurt, it seems that dispatch reliability for the initial period is around where 787 is, 98%. This is of
course measured on a tiny base so one does not have the statistical relevance of the 787 data but it is
still significant that we know of only two issues that has plagued the operational A350 so far: a
hydraulic hose that broke some time ago and a high lift issue that needed a spare part to be flown in
about a week ago.

It seems that the A350 is not beset by the myriad of system software issues that plagued the initial
operation of A380 and 787. It is our understanding this is what makes the increase of dispatch
reliability difficult on these aircraft as new systems architectures takes time to stabilize and get
reliable and further to get the field experience to a level where mechanics and operations
departments know how to handle issues in an effective way. The A350 was effectively a further
refinement of the A380 systems and Airbus has therefore been able to focus on system maturity
before delivery instead of the exhaustive debugging of functionality that plagued Boeing for 787 and
Airbus for A380.

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Engineering
Summary
It is far too early to draw any general conclusions in the comparison of the
Boeing 787 and Airbus A350 programs. What one can see is that Boeing is still
struggling to get the costs per produced aircraft and the reliability to the
levels they planned. The way the project was launched still casts its shadows
four years after first delivery.

The Dreamliner program was launched on wrong industrial and economical

premises and with a too risky project setup. It is still work in progress to
master the effects of this bad start to the project. While the airlines might not
suffer so much anymore (the 787 is a fine aircraft which delivers the promised
economics), Boeing is still wrestling with getting things under total control and
this cost money.

In contrast, the A350 program, which was given more realistic project
targets/time frames and a beefed up program management, working with a
known supply chain concept and aircraft system approach, has created the
conditions for a predictable economical situation with a product that is
mature at delivery and starting to deliver on its promises.

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Engineering
AE 0618 - Aircraft Maintenance 9
Engineering
Airbus A350-800 Turbofan-powered Wide-body Commercial
Passenger Aircraft

Compared to the average Turbofan-powered Wide-body Commercial

Passenger Aircraft, the Airbus A350-800:

•Is $12,400,000 more expensive at $272 million

•Can fly 940 nautical miles farther at 8,200 nautical miles
•Can cruise 100 ft higher at 43,100ft
•Reaches a typical maximum cruising speed at 487 knots (560 mph)
•Outputs 4,696 more lbf of thrust at 158,000 lbf
•Is 70,600 lbs lighter at 546,700 lbs
•Seats 25 fewer passengers at 280 passengers

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Engineering
MTOW (Maximum Take Off Weight):
A350–900: 280 t (proposed variants range from 259 t–308 t)
Boeing 787–8: 228 t (proposed variants range from 228 t–254 t)

As can be seen, the lightest A350 is still heavier than the biggest 787.
The A350 was at first supposed to be a direct counter to the 787, but airlines
didn’t like the slim fuselage. A broader fuselage gives more options as to the
seating configuration. In a surprising move it was then decided to scrap the
original design and develop the A350 XWB (Xtra-Wide-Body).

Airbus had detected that they should rather tackle the 777 than the 787.
Boeing’s 787 is somewhat of a technological demonstrator. They decided to
take the leap into many new technologies. But being the “first mover” they
also had to learn many hard lessons. Airbus had already collected know-how
from all the frustration they went through with the A380. Also, through
know-how acquired by shared suppliers the A350 programme benefitted
from the 787 research. This meant that the A350 programme would be
hampered by fewer problems.

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Engineering
Aircraft Accident Rates and Fatalities

Technical HFEM Systems Management SMS

Reliability CRM Accident
Crew Training Automation Investigations
Regulations
Adapted from Boeing
HUMAN FACTORS TRAINING HAS AVERTED AN UNTENABLE
SITUATION

Human Factors Training

BY 2010 WE WILL
HAVE MORE THAN
1 ACCIDENT
PER WEEK

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 Accident Causation %
100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
1903 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Note that some accidents can be attributed to both, machine failures and human
errors
 CIVIL AIRCRAFT OPERATION

 THE AIRCRAFT IS A VERY EXPENSIVE MACHINE – a modern jet

aircraft typically costs between S$100M to S$350M
 AIRLINES ARE VERY DEMANDING CUSTOMERS - High Utilisation, Quick
Turnaround, Operational Readiness, Low Cost …
 PASSENGERS ARE EVEN MORE DEMANDING
Comfort, Punctuality, User-friendly amenities ...
 COST OF FAILURE – a delay can cost over $100,000. Failure at an
inconvenient place causing an extended AOG can result in loss of
revenue many times more.
 THE AIRCRAFT OPERATES IN A VERY HARSH ENVIRONMENT

 Pressure, Temperature, Wind, Rain, Ice, Snow, Lightning ...

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MA 4872 Aircraft Reliability
Availability, Maintainability and Reliability

Availability is a measure of the readiness of a system - the degree to which a

system is in an operable and committable state at the start of a mission when the
mission is called for at a random time.”

MIL-HDBK-472 defines three categories of availability:

Inherent Availability (Ai) depends on the Basic Reliability and Maintainability

(Designed). High Inherent Availability can be achieved by LRU concept which uses
quick change out of faulty components so that the aircraft can be released for
service.

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MA 4872 Aircraft Reliability 17
 Operational Availability is much less than Inherent Availability as MTBMA include
all maintenance activities (Corrective Maintenance & Preventive Maintenance).
Down Time includes all time associated with the equipment being down for
Maintenance = MTTR + movement delays, spares, error recoveries, etc…

In aircraft maintenance where LRU concept is used to improve Availability, MTBUR

is often used – Mean Time Between Unscheduled Removals

Note that the type of availability being described is often not standard. Many simply refer to
"availability”. MTTR may be the equivalent of MMT or MDT, and MTBF may be the equivalent MTMA.

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 WHAT IS AIRCRAFT MAINTENANCE ENGINEERING ?

“…maintenance is a science since its execution relies on most or all of the

sciences.

It is an art because seemingly identical problems regularly demand and receive

varying approaches and actions and because some managers, foremen, and
mechanics display greater aptitude for it than others show or even attain.

It is above all a philosophy because it is a discipline that can be applied

intensively, modestly, or not at all, depending upon a wide range of variables
that frequently transcend more immediate and obvious solutions.”

Lindley R Higgins
Maintenance Engineering Handbook
McGraw-Hill, NY, 1990

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 MAINTENANCE : DEFINITION
1. A process oriented definition, “… those actions required for restoring or
maintaining an item in a serviceable condition, including servicing,
repair, modification, overhaul, inspection, and determination of
condition.”

2. An open-ended definition, “…ensuring that physical assets continue to

do what their users want them to do.”

3. An FAA definition FAR Part 1, “…inspection, overhaul, repair,

preservation, and replacement of parts.”

4. Jack Hessburg, “Maintenance is the action necessary to sustain or

restore the integrity and performance of the aircraft.”

5. Harry Kinnison, “ Maintenance is the process of ensuring that a system

continually performs its intended function at its designed-in level of
reliability and safety.

MA 4872 Aircraft Reliability 20

 Maintainability : Definition

The relative ease and economy of time and resources with which an item can be
retained in, or restored to, a specific condition when maintenance is performed by
personnel having specific skill levels, using prescribed procedures and resources, at
each prescribed level of maintenance and repair. In this context, it is a function of
design
MIL-HDBK-470A

The ease with which a software system or component can be modified to correct
faults, improve performance or other attributes, or adapt to a changed environment

IEEE 90

An inherent characteristic of system design pertaining to ease, accuracy,

safety, and economy in performing maintenance actions. – Generic definition

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MA 4872 Aircraft Reliability
Military Handbook 472 (MIL-HDBK-472) defines six components of maintainability:

1. Elemental Activities are simple maintenance actions of short duration and

relatively small variance that do not vary appreciably from one system to
another.
An example of an elemental activity is the opening and shutting of a door.

2. Malfunction Active Repair Time consists of:

1. Preparation time
2. Malfunction verification time
3. Fault location time
4. Part procurement time
5. Repair time
6. Final malfunction test time

Items 1-6 above are composed of elemental activities.

3. Malfunction Repair Time consists of:

1. Malfunction active repair time

2. Repair Logistics and administrative time

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 4. System Repair Time is the product of malfunction repair time and the
number of malfunctions.

5. System Downtime includes:

1. System logistic time
2. System repair time
3. System final test time

6. Total System Downtime is a combination of the distributions of

1. Initial delay
2. System downtime

MIL-HDBK-472 provides a procedure for predicting maintainability based on the structure described
above. The philosophy of the procedure is based on the principles of synthesis and transferability.

The synthesis principle involves a build-up of downtimes, step-by-step, progressing from the
distribution of downtimes of elemental activities through various stages culminating finally with the
distribution of system downtime.

The transferability principle embodies the concept that data applicable to one type of system can be
applied to similar systems, under like conditions of use and environment, to predict system
maintainability.

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MA 4872 Aircraft Reliability
A380

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MA 4872 Aircraft Reliability
MAINTENANCE PHILOSOPHY
Failure is inherent in all useful design not only because all requirements of
economy derive from insatiable wishes, but more immediately because
certain quite specific conflicts are inevitable once requirements for economy
are admitted; and conflicts even among the requirements of use are not
unknown.” …David Pye

Maintenance Fail Safe Scheduled Maintenance

Concept Fail Passive Hard Life Components
Incorporated Fail Op Soft Life Components
in design Fail Tolerant On Condition
Deferred Defects MSG-3
MEL
Condition Monitoring
 REDUNDANCIES
 PREVENTIVE MAINTENANCE SYSTEM
 LINE REPLACEABLE UNITS CONCEPT
Quick Turnaround

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MA 4872 Aircraft Reliability
 BASIC AIRCRAFT MAINTENANCE ORGANISATION

ICAO
REGULATORY
AURHORITIES
CAAS
LINE
FAA
EASA MAINTENANCE
Airport Apron
Quick Turnaround
BASE
MAINTENANCE
Scheduled Checks Training & Development
Special Checks
COMPONENT
WORKSHOPS Production Planning
Repair & Overhaul Technical & Control
Support

Material Infrastructure Productivity

Management Development Improvement

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MA 4872 Aircraft Reliability
 MAINTENANCE ORGANISATION

Driven by Economic Necessity and Regulatory Requirements

ECONOMIC TECHNICAL SAFETY

SKILLS AIRWORTHINESS
UTILISATION
SYSTEM MANAGEMENT ENVIRONMENTAL
OPERATIONAL READINESS
RISK ASSESSMENT OPERATIONS
COST
RELIABILITY PASSENGER

PRODUCTION PLANNING – Schedule of Aircraft, Manage Green Time

PRODUCTION CONTROL – Organising the people, Progress Chasing
TECHNICAL SUPPORT – Reliability Improvement, Repair Schemes
MATERIAL MANAGEMENT – Spares and Components, Inventory Control
FACILITIES & EQUIPMENT – Tools and Equipment Maintenance
PRODUCTIVITY ENHANCEMENT - Work flow, 5-S, Lean, Facility Layout
TRAINING – System Knowledge, Rule-Based Decision for Speed
QUALITY – Regulatory Compliance, Audits and Safety

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 ICAO officially came into existence on 04 April 1947 - to standardize
the operation of a safe, regular and efficient service which has resulted
in the high level of reliability and safety we are enjoying today.
The 18 annexes identified as International Standards and Recommended Practices cover all
aspect of international civil aviation operations:

Annex 1 Personnel Licensing

Annex 2 Rules of the Air
Annex 3 Meteorological Services for International Air Navigation
Annex 4 Aeronautical Charts
Annex 5 Unit of Measurement to be used in Air and Ground Operations
Annex 6 Operation of Aircraft
Annex 7 Aircraft Nationality and Registration Marks
Annex 8 Airworthiness of Aircraft
Annex 9 Facilitations
Annex 10 Aeronautical Telecommunications
Annex 11 Air Traffic Services
Annex 12 Search and Rescue
Annex 13 Aircraft Accident Investigation
Annex 14 Aerodromes
Annex 15 Aeronautical Information Services
Annex 16 Environmental Protection
Annex 17 Security – Safeguarding International Civil Aviation against Act of Unlawful Interference
Annex 18 Safe Transport of Dangerous Goods by Air
Annex 19 Safety Management System

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“Airworthiness is the possession of the necessary requirements
for flying in safe condition, within allowable limits”

The Tasks of Airworthiness Authorities are :

1. To prescribe airworthiness requirements and procedures

2. To inform the interested parties of airworthiness requirements and
procedures
3. To control aeronautical material, design, and manufacturing
organisations, and aircraft operators
4. To certificate aeronautical materials, organisations and personnel.
Main Civil Aviation Authorities include :

FAA – Federal Aviation Administration

EASA – European Aviation Safety Agency
CAAS – Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore
CAAUK – Civil Aviation Authority of UK
CASA – Civil Aviation Safety Authority, Australia

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MA 4872 Aircraft Reliability