Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 74 (2017) 258–264

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Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/rser

The relationships among energy consumption, economic output and energy MARK
intensity of countries at different stage of development
⁎
Zhang Lan-yuea,b, Li Yaoa,b, Zhang Jinga,b, , Luo Bingc, He Ji-minc, Deng Shi-huaia,b,
Huang Xinb, Luo lingb, Shen Feia,b, Xiao Hongb, Zhang Yan-zongb, Li Yuan-weib, Wang Li-linb,
Yao Xue-Pingd, Zhang Ya-qia,b
a
Institute of Ecological and Environmental Science, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, 611130 Sichuan, PR China
b
College of Environmental, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, 611130 Sichuan, PR China
c
Si Chuan Environmental Monitoring Center, Cheng Du, 611130 Sichuan, PR China
d
College of Veterinary Medcine, Sichuan Agricultural University, Cheng Du, 610030 Sichuan, PR China

A R T I C L E I N F O A BS T RAC T

Keywords: Based on 3GR model, the relationships between energy consumption, economic effect and technical effect of
Energy consumption countries at different stage of development (developed, developing and the least developed countries) was
Economic output figured out. Comparing the equivalent value of GREC, GREO and GREI during the period from 1996 to 2013,
Energy intensity the diverse development laws in different kinds of countries was found. The following conclusions were
Growth rate
obtained: (1) based on 3GR model, there is a liner relationship between GREC and GREO or GREI and an
3 GR model
inverse relationship between GREI and GREO when the equivalent value of (1+GREOi) or (1+GREIi) or
(1+GRECi) is a constant. (2) The equivalent value of GREO are in the following orders, developed countries <
developing countries < the least developed countries, while that of GREI have the opposite orders. The orders
of the equivalent value of GREC are developed countries, the least developed countries and developing countries
from small to large. The least developed countries own the largest potential to realize further development
whether in economic expansion, technical innovation or in optimize industrial structure while these potential in
developed countries are the smallest and in developing countries are at the middle level; the development in
developing countries shows the most growth going forward. (3) The change in energy consumption is
codetermined by EO effect, EI effect and their interactive effect. EO effect shows the leading position among
the three effects, especially in developing countries and the least developed countries. In developed countries,
EC change, EO effect and EI effect are both change in a tight range. While in developing countries and the least
developed countries, these ranges are rather large.

1. Introduction optimizing industrial structure by restricting the development of

In recent decades, energy consumption in the world increased
rapidly since energy is essential for economic growth [1]. At the same
time, excessive fossil energy consumption is causing a serious of
environmental problems [2]. E.g. the global acid rain problem, the
Antarctic ozone hole problem and global warming. How to reduce the
energy consumption is a hot issue. In order to cut down total energy
consumption, reducing energy intensity has been thought as the most
cost-effective ways [3]. Energy intensity, which is usually quantified by
energy-to-gross domestic product ratio [4–6], is affected by two main
factors, technical innovation and industrial structure [4,7]. Most of
enterprises innovate technology to respond the challenges of pressure
on energy supply. Meanwhile, government has been committed to
energy-intensive enterprises [8]. Thus, there are some complex rela-
tions among energy consumption, economic growth, and energy
intensity.
The volume of published literature on these relations has been
increasing in recent years. These studies analyzed their relations and
were usually base on a single area, such as a country, a state or a city
[8–11]. From the perspective of their growth rate, this paper analyzes
relations of their growth rates in several countries. In detail, the growth
rate of energy consumption, economic output and energy intensity are
abbreviated as GREC, GREO and GREI, respectively.
For countries at different development stage, their values of GREC,
GREO and GREI vary. The least developed countries are at a low level
whether in economic expansion, technical innovation or in optimize

⁎
Corresponding author at: College of Environmental, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, 611130 Sichuan, PR China.
E-mail addresses: jingzhang1985@yahoo.com, zcilly@126.com (Z. Jing).

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.02.055
Received 23 July 2016; Received in revised form 10 December 2016; Accepted 12 February 2017
1364-0321/ © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Z. Lan-yue et al. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 74 (2017) 258–264

industrial structure [12]. In developed countries, the core of the world GRECi = k1 GREIi + (k1 − 1) (4)
economy [13], their economy is highly developed and technology is
Similarly, the equivalent value of GREI and GREC in the research
advanced [14]. Their developments are entering a bottleneck period
period could be calculated, Eq. (5) and Eq. (6) could be obtained [15],
because further developments are constrained by natural resources and
environmental issues [2]. The development degree of developing GRECi = k2 GREOi + (k2 − 1). (5)
countries is between developed countries and the least developed
countries. GREOi = k3 /(GREIi + 1) − 1. (6)
There are two aspects of the objective in this investigation. Firstly, Based on the Eq. (3), there is a multiple multiplication relationship
3GR model states the relationship among GREC, GREO, and GREI, in as Eq. (7) shown [15],
theory [15]. It is meaningful to discuss its practicability. Secondly,
i i i
based on 3GR model, it is valuable to analyze the regularity of GREC, ∏1 (GRECj + 1) = ∏1 (GREOj + 1) × ∏1 (GREIj + 1). (7)
GREO, and GREI of different types of countries. The results could help
us to find out the different influence of economic output and energy Where, k1, k2 and k3 are some constants, which equal to the equivalent
intensity on energy consumption. value of GREO, GREI, and GREC plus one, respectively. Symbol '∏'
The framework structure was built as follows. Section 2 introduced means multiplying one by one. In order to analysis the effects of each
the method of 3GR model, including the data source, the selected factor on energy consumption, the equivalent value of energy con-
countries and the indicators. Section 3 plotted the isograms of growth sumption is defined as Eq. (8),
rate and the cumulative growth rate, and then compared the growth (EC2 − EC0 ) (EC − EC ) (EC − EC )
rate of economic output, energy intensity and energy consumption in (EC1 − EC0 ) + 2
+⋯+ i i 0 +⋯+ n n 0
EVEC =
different countries. Section 4 discussed the reasons that caused these n (8)
differences. Section 5 drew conclusions.
Where, EVEC represents the equivalent value of annual energy
consumption; ECi is annual energy consumption in ith year. Their unit
2. Methods and data is tons of SCE.
Both economic output and energy intensity play important roles on
2.1. 3GR model energy consumption. In order to reflect the their influence on energy
consumption, Eq. (9) and Eq. (10) are introduced,
Many literatures use Cobb-Douglas production function to analyze EI0 + EI1
(EO 2 − EO0 ) ×
the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth (EO1 − EO0 ) × EI0 + 2
+⋯
2
[14,16–18]. Cobb-Douglas production function showed the level of
EI + EI1 + ⋯ + EIi −1 EI0 + EI1 + ⋯ + EIn −1
production is explained by capital, labor and other determinants of (EOi − EO0 ) × 0 (EOn − EO0 ) ×
i n
+ i
+⋯+ n
economic growth [19]. While many causality tests demonstrate that, EVEC − EO =
the causality between economic growth and energy consumption is n
bidirectional [11,20,21]. To clarify this relationship, we used 3GR (9)
model, which explains the trilateral relations among energy consump- EO0 + EO1
(EI2 − EI0 ) ×
tion, energy intensity and economic output and their pairwise correla- (EI1 − EI0 ) × EO0 + 2
+⋯
2
tions from the perspective of growth rate. EO0 + EO1 + ⋯ + EOi −1 EO0 + EO1 + ⋯ + EOn −1
(EIi − EI0 ) × (EIn − EI0 ) ×
The fundamental formula of 3GR model is deduced from the + i
+⋯+ n
i n
quantification of energy intensity (energy-to-gross domestic product EVEC − EI =
n
ratio), shown as Eq. (1) [15].
(10)
(GRECi + 1) = (GREOi + 1)(GREIi + 1). (1)
Where, EVEC-EO and EVEC-EI is the equivalent value of energy
Where, GRECi, GREOi and GREIi is the growth rate of energy consumption caused by EO effect and EI effect (abbreviated terms in
consumption, economic output and energy intensity in ith year, section3.4.1), respectively. Their unit is tons of SCE. EOi is annual
respectively; they are non-dimensional. economic output in the ith year. Its unit is $. EIi is annual energy
Growth rate of economic output, energy consumption, energy intensity in the ith year. Its unit is tons of SCE per $.
intensity are calculated by Eq. (2) [15], Besides, the interactive relationship between EO effect and EI effect
would also influenced total energy consumption. This interactive
GRi = (xi − xi −1)/ xi −1. (2)
influence on energy consumption is an unknown function, thus, an
Where, xi is the value of economic output or energy consumption or identity is derived as Eq. (11) shows.
energy intensity in the ith year. GRi is the growth rate of corresponding
EVEC = EVEC − EO + EVEC − EI + f (EVEC − EO, EVEC − EI ) (11)
value, such as GREI, GREO, and GREC.
The equivalent value of GREI, GREO, and GREC in research period Where, f (EVEC-EO,EVEC-EI)is the unknown function which repre-
is defined as Eq. (3) [15], sents the interactive influence on energy consumption. EVEC-EO,
n EVEV-EI, and f (EVEC-EO, EVEC-EI) would be positive or negative,
EVGR = n−1 ∏1 (GRj + 1) − 1. (3) EVEC is the product of their effect canceled each other. In order to
directly compare EO effect and EI effect on energy consumption, their
Where, EVGR is the equivalent value of GREC, GREO and GREI; they absolute share in energy consumption is calculated by Eq. (12), Eq.
are non-dimensional. The sub-index 1 refers to the first year (1996) in (13) and Eq. (14),
the research period. n is the research period, it equal to eighteen years.
Based on the Eq. (1) and some hypothesizes, Eq. (4), Eq. (5), and EVEC − EO
P (EVEC − EO ) = × 100%
Eq. (6) could be obtained. According to Eq. (3), the equivalent value of EVEC − EO + EVEC − EI + f (EVEC − EO, EVEC − EI )
GREO in the research period can be calculated. And it is reasonable to (12)
assume that (1+GREOi) in Eq. (1) equals to the equivalent value of
EVEC − EI
GREO plus one. Thus, there is a linear relationship between GREC and P (EVEC − EI ) = × 100%
GREI, and the slope of line is determined by GREO, shown as Eq. (4) EVEC − EO + EVEC − EI + f (EVEC − EO, EVEC − EI )
[15], (13)

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P ( f (EVEC − EO, EVEC − EI ))

f (EVEC − EO, EVEC − EI )
= × 100%
EVEC − EO + EVEC − EI + f (EVEC − EO, EVEC − EI ) (14)
Where, P(EVEC-EO),P(EVEC-EI) and P(f(EVEC-EO,EVEC-EI)) is the
absolute share of EO effect, EI effect and their interactive effect in
energy consumption, respectively; their unit is %. |EVEC-EO |, |EVEC-
EI | and |f(EVEC-EO,EVEC-EI)| is the absolute value of EVEC-
EO,EVEV-EI and f(EVEC-EO,EVEC-EI), their unit is tons of SCE.

2.2. Data source

In the world, countries at different development stage are summar-

ized as developed countries, developing countries, and the least
developed countries. Generally, different types of countries possess
different characteristic such as economic structure, energy structure,
technology level, and so on.
Specific nine countries possessing typical characteristic are selected
to analyze these difference. For the least developed country, given
stable political situation and great develop potential, Cambodia (KHM),
Ethiopia (ETH) and Mozambique (MOZ) are selected [22–26] from the
list of United Nations. For developed countries, given highly developed
economy and advanced technology, the United States of America
(USA), Japan (JPN) and Germany (DEU) are selected [27,28] from
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Fig. 1. The isograms of GREO of nine countries. Note: Countries of same type is plotted
countries [29]. For developing country, given middle-income level and by same linetype, namely linetype“⋅⋅⋅ ”, “− − − ” and “−⋅−⋅ ” represent developing country,
fast economic growth, China (CHN), Brazil (BRA) and India (IND) are developed countries and the least developed countries, respectively. In additon, different
counties belonging to same type is distinguished by symbol, ▲, ■ and •. This expression
selected from several emerging markets [30].
is also applied in Fig. 2 and Fig. 4.
The data that form the basis of this analysis are derived from World
Bank database [31]. Energy use per capita (kg of oil equivalent), total
developed countries locate at higher position, as their equivalent values
population and gross domestic product (GDP) at market prices
of GREO are larger. Theoretically, the isograms of developing countries
(constant 2005 US$) were selected. Energy consumption is equal to
should locate between those lines of developed and the least developed
indigenous production plus imports and stock changes, minus exports
countries. In China, its economy has achieved spectacular growth [32];
and fuels supplied to ships and aircraft engaged in international
its equivalent value of GREO always greater than most countries. Thus,
transport. Total population counts all residents regardless of legal
the isogram of GREO of China locates at the highest position. As the
status or citizenship, except for refugees not permanently settled in the
equivalent value of GREO of Ethiopia and Cambodia are respectively
country of asylum. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident
0.0820 and 0.0816 (Their difference is very small), their isograms of
producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any
GREO almost overlap each other.
subsidies not included in the value of the products.
Energy consumption is the product of energy use per capita and
total population. Economic output is seen as equal to GDP at market
prices. Energy intensity is the ratio of energy consumption to GDP [4– 3.2. The isograms of GREI
6]. GREI, GREO, and GREC in period of 1996–2013 are calculated by
corresponding data form 1995–2013. Moreover, the year of 1995 is Similarly, Eq. (5) indicates that the larger equivalent value of GREI
seen as base year. is, the higher position corresponding isograms locate at. Under the
assumption that the value of (1+GREIi) is a constant, the isograms of
3. Empirical analysis results of 3GR model GREI, which describe the relationship between GREC and GREO, are
obtained as Fig. 2 shows.
The isograms of GREO, GREC, and GREI of nine countries are From Fig. 2, it indicates some regular trend of equivalent value of
obtained based on 3GR model. The cumulative growth rate of total GREI among developed countries, developing countries, and the least
energy consumptions was decomposed by two parts, which are the developed countries. The isograms of GREI of the least developed
cumulative growth rate of economy output and energy intensity. countries locate at the lowest position, as their equivalent values of
GREI are the smallest. Meanwhile, the isograms of developed countries
3.1. The isograms of GREO locate at the higher position, as their equivalent values of GREI are
larger. Theoretically, the isograms of developing countries should
Eq. (4) indicates that the larger equivalent value of GREO is, the locate between those lines of developed and the least developed
higher position corresponding isograms locate at. Based on Eq. (3), the countries. Nevertheless, there is an exception, Brazil. In Brazil, the
equivalent values of GREO of the selected countries are calculated. In energy-intensive industries plays important role in manufacturing just
addition, the value of (1+GREOi) is a constant. Thus, the isograms of as many developing countries [2]; agricultural development was
GREO, which describe the relationship between GREC and GREI, are neglected during the urbanization process [33]. Thus, its equivalent
obtained as Fig. 1 shows. value of GREI is always larger than that of most countries; the isograms
From Fig. 1, it indicates some regular trend of equivalent value of of GREI of Brazil skip to the highest position. As the equivalent value of
GREO among developed countries, developing countries, and the least GREI of China and Cambodia are respectively −0.03404 and −0.03401
developed countries. The isograms of GREO of developed countries (Their difference is very small), their isograms of GREI almost overlap
(USA, JPN and DEU) locate at the lowest position, as their equivalent each other, which would seem as a critical position of developing
values of GREO are the lowest. Meanwhile, the isograms of the least country and the least developed country.

260
Z. Lan-yue et al.
Fig. 2. The isograms of GREI of nine countries.
3.3. The isograms of GREC
As is described by Eq. (6), under the assumption that the value of
(1+GRECi) is a constant, there is an inverse relationship between GREI
and GREO. Generally, the values of GREC of most countries are always
greater than zero, thus k3 (which equals to GREC+1) is greater than
one. According to Eq. (6), it can be known that the larger the equivalent
value of GREI is, the higher position isograms of GREC locates at. The
isograms of GREC, which describe the relationship between GREI and
GREO, are obtained as Fig. 3 shows.
From Fig. 3, it indicates some regular trend of equivalent value of
GREC among developed countries, developing countries, and the least
developed countries. There is a tendency that the isograms of GREC of
the selected countries from top to bottom are developing countries, the
least developed countries and developed countries. As the equivalent
value of GREC of India and Cambodia are respectively 0.04427 and
0.04478 (Their difference is very small), their isograms of GREC almost
overlap each other, which would be seen as a critical position of
developing country and the least developed country. The same as
Fig. 3. The isograms of GREC of nine countries.
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Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 74 (2017) 258–264
Fig. 2, there still exists an exception, Brazil, due to its irrational
economic structure.
3.4. The total energy consumption
3.4.1. The cumulative growth rate of GREC, GREO and GREI
Eq. (7) indicates the relations among the multiplicative of
(1+GREC), (1+GREI), and (1+GREO), which is the change times of
energy consumption, economic output or energy intensity by the base
year (1995), respectively. Their changes over the research period are
shown in Fig. 4.
According to Eq. (7), the multiplicative of (1+GREC) is codeter-
mined by the multiplicative of (1+GREO) and (1+GREI). Namely, the
change in energy consumption, abbreviated as EC change, is codeter-
mined by the changes in economic output or energy intensity,
abbreviated as EO effect and EI effect, respectively. Overall, EO effect
would increase the energy consumption; EI effect would reduce the
energy consumption. However, in Brazil, technical innovation falls
behind economic expansion because of its irrational economic struc-
ture, its EC change influenced by EI effect increased instead.
The growth rates of multiplicative of (1+GREC) of CHN, BRA, IND,
USA, JPN, DEU, KHM, ETH, and MOZ are 181.55%, 73.10%,
102.14%, 3.55%, −9.94%, −8.68%, 101.35%, 85.95%, and 68.43%,
respectively. It can summarize that the multiplicative of (1+GREC) of
developed countries flatten out; that of developing countries and the
least developed countries are in an upswing. The growth rates of the
multiplicative of (1+GREO) of these countries are 340.30%, 70.40%,
208.70%, 48.76%, 12.84%, 24.54%, 259.76%, 239.65%, and 266.37%,
respectively. It indicates an economic slowdown in developed countries
and a multiple rise in developing countries and the least developed
countries. Especially in China, its economy is growing rapidly beyond
laws of market economics [32]. However, in Brazil, its irrational
economic structure leads to a slower speed of economy development.
The growth rates of the multiplicative of (1+GREI) of these countries
are −40.64%, 1.58%, −34.52%, −30.39%,−20.19%, −26.68%, −44.03%,
−45.25%, and −54.03%, respectively. It appears to mirror the conclu-
sion of Fig. 2. In summary, the multiplicative of (1+GREC), (1+GREO),
and (1+GREI) in developed countries fluctuates less than those of
developing countries and the least developed countries.
3.4.2. Absolute share of each component in energy consumption
According to Eq. (12), Eq. (13) and Eq. (14), the absolute share of
EO effect, EI effect and their interactive effect in energy consumption
are calculated as Table 1 shows. For the nine counties, EO effect is the
leading factor as it accounts for more than 50% in EC change. The
share of EO effect in USA, JPN, and DEU are 58.46%, 63.24%, and
54.07%, respectively. Meanwhile, their shares of EI effect are 40.57%,
36.14%, and 45.52%, respectively. The interactive effect of EO effect
and EI effect are less than 1%. The difference of EO effect and EI effect
for developed countries is not significant. As influence of EO effect and
EI effect on energy consumption are exactly opposite, energy con-
sumption would increase slowly even decrease.
Table 1 indicates that the shares of EO effect in EC change of
developed countries are the smallest, while that of developing countries
is the largest. The share of EI effect in EC change of developed
countries is the largest; while that of developing and the least
developed countries have no significantly difference. The interactive
effect was the smallest compared to the EO effect and EI effect. The
interactive effect of the least developed countries is the largest, while
that of developed countries is the smallest.
4. Discussions
4.1. The isograms of GREO
In developed countries, their commercial economy is highly devel-
Z. Lan-yue et al.
Fig. 4. The cumulative of GREC, GREO, and GREI.
oped, and their economic structure tends to be more and more
reasonable [13], however they faces many global environmental
problems, such as energy-resource depletion, climate change and
health resources [34]. In order to protect environment and improve
the quality of life, they have chosen the circular economic and green
economic models [35]. These economic models would slowdown the
growth rate of GDP [34]. Thus, their equivalent values of GREO are the
smallest compared to developing countries and the least developed
countries.
Both economy and technology in the least developed countries are
at the lowest level [34], policy-makers of these countries aspire to
develop economy to meet people's matter demand [36]. Recent years
have witnessed their great potential to develop economy [23,26]. Once
the proper economic model is established and implemented, their
economy would grow rapidly. Therefore, their equivalent values of
GREO are larger than that of developed countries and developing
countries.
According to the develop degree of economy, the equivalent values
of GREO of developing countries are between that of developed
countries and the least developed countries. However, China is an
exception. After three decades of policy of reform and opening, China
has achieved rapid economic progress beyond laws of market econom-
ics [8]. Especially in the remote parts of China, their economic has
made remarkable development under the guidance of national policy,
such as the strategy of “Western Development”. Therefore, its equiva-
lent value of GREO is the largest in the nine countries.
4.2. The isograms of GREI
During the industrial revolution, the industrial structure in devel-
oped countries had been modified and optimized, following by
significant technical innovation [2]. Consequently, in the period of
1996–2013, the technical innovations and industrial optimize of
developed countries are in the bottleneck stage; hence the energy
Table1
Absolute share of component (%) in energy consumption.
Countries Developing counties
CHN BRA IND
P(EVEC-EO) 64.40 75.75 69.59
P(EVEC-EI) 34.23 22.77 29.30
P(f(EVEC-EO,EVEC-EI)) 1.37 1.48 1.12
Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 74 (2017) 258–264
consumption reduced by reducing energy intensity is lower than
before. On the contrary, in the least developed countries, their economy
are both predominantly based on agricultural activities [22–24],
caused their single industrial structure. Like their great potential to
develop economy, the least developed countries with a stable political
have a huge space to innovate technology and optimize their single
industrial structure. Thus, the great potential to reducing energy
intensity caused the smallest equivalent value of GREI in nine
countries.
Theoretically, the equivalent values of GREI of developing countries
are between those of developed countries and the least developed
countries, since their potential to reducing energy intensity are
between that of developed and the least developed countries.
However, Brazil is an exception, whose isogram of GREI skip to the
highest position. In Brazil, the energy-intensive industries play an
important role in manufacturing just as many developing countries [2],
e.g. rapid industrialization followed with high growth of some energy-
intensive industries (such as aluminum, steel and cement production)
[37,38]; energy intensive commodity is an important source of export
trade in Brazil [39,40]. In addition, although fossil fuels still play an
important role, renewable might reach more than 30% of total electric
generation [41]. Clean energy may increase the total energy consump-
tion and has no significant impact on the technical efficiency [42].
Thus, its equivalent value of GREI is the largest in the nine countries.
4.3. The isograms of GREC
According to Eq. (4), under the assumption that the value of
(1+GRECi) is a constant, there is an inverse relationship between
GREO and GREI.
GREO shows a positive effect while GREI is negative. For developed
countries, their equivalent values of GREO is the smallest and
equivalent values of GREI is the largest, so their equivalent values of
GREC are the smallest compared to developing countries and the least
Developed countries The least developed countries
USA JPN DEU KHM ETH MOZ
58.46 63.24 54.07 65.67 66.16 51.10
40.57 36.14 45.52 31.25 29.15 43.38
0.97 0.63 0.41 3.08 4.70 5.52
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developed countries. On the other hand, the economic development of
developed countries tend to be slow due to resources constraints and
excess capacity; the technology of developed countries is often at high
levels [14], which indicate that energy intensity is at low level. Energy
consumption is directly determined by economic scale and energy
intensity, thus the equivalent values of GREC of developed countries
are the smallest compared to those of developing and the least
developed countries.
Developing countries and the least developed countries almost
belong to same class of country from the perspective of whether they
have development potentials. Therefore, the equivalent values of
developing countries and the least developed countries are both higher
since they are experiencing the process of develop. Moreover, agricul-
tural development in developing countries have solved the problem of
food and clothing lacking, citizens in developing countries began to
pursue a higher level of living standard, which depend on the
development of social and economic [38]. Therefore, developing
countries need to increase more energy consumption [38] compared
to the least developed countries whose citizens still want to get rid of
poverty [36].
However, there exists an exception, Brazil, whose isogram of GREC
skip into the range of the least developed countries. In Brazil, its
agricultural policy is notorious for its dualistic institutional structure
[43]. On one hand, strategies based on large-scale capitalized and
mechanized agriculture with a large share of external inputs, high
dependence on hired labor and greater international market integra-
tion; and on the other hand based on small-scale family farming units,
more autonomous in relation to external inputs, capital and markets
[44]. This irrational economic structure leads to economic downturns,
caused a decrease in energy consumption.
4.4. The Total Energy Consumption
4.4.1. The cumulative growth rate of GREC, GREO and GREI
Eq. (7) indicates that the change in energy consumption is
codetermined by EO effect and EI effect. Policy-maker often develops
economy to meet people's increasing living requirements, thus, energy
consumption would increase. This process is defined as EO effect.
Meanwhile, there exists a rebound effect (EI effect). For example, most
enterprises carry out the technology innovation, which is a key strategy
to realize the transition towards a less-fossil-fuel-dependent society
[41]. However, in Brazil, its irrational economic structure is so weak
that the technical innovation and industrial structure optimization still
lags behind most of developing countries. Therefore, the energy
consumption increased by EI effect instead.
In developed countries, both EO effect and EI effect fluctuate in a
tight range, which indicates they are effective in economic growth,
energy conservation, and emissions reduction [42]. While in develop-
ing and the least developed countries, both EO effect and EI effect show
an upswing trend. Thus, the growth rates of multiplicative of
(1+GREC), (1+GREO) and (1+GREI) in developed countries are
smaller than these of developing countries and the least developed
countries.
However, there are two exceptions, China and Brazil. China owns
the largest equivalent value of GREO, which indicates the economy in
China developed rapidly. Therefore, its growth rate of the cumulative of
GREO is the largest compared to the nine countries. The weak
economic structure in Brazil caused a miserable decade of economic
stagnation [38]. Therefore, the growth rate of the cumulative growth
rate of GREO in Brazil is the smallest compared to the nine countries.
4.4.2. Absolute share of each component in energy consumption
The two inverse effects (EO effect and EI effect) both vary with time.
Besides, there is an interactive effect between EO effect and EI effect.
As a product of the fluctuation of these two inverse effects, the share of
interactive effect is the smallest compared to the two main effects. EO
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Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 74 (2017) 258–264
effect, EI effect and their interactive effect codetermine energy con-
sumption in a nation.
Energy is a fundamental component of economic development [42].
Going along with economic development, technical innovation and
industrial structure optimization followed. Consequently, EO effect is
the leading factor among the three effects, as Table 1 shows. Especially
in developing countries and the least developed countries, their
measures to reducing energy intensity are not mature enough so that
their EO effect plays the main part absolutely. In developed countries,
their economy and technology are highly developed so that the two
inverse effects could generally keep energy consumption a dynamic
balance.
5. Conclusions
Based on 3GR model, the difference in the growth of energy
consumption, economic output and energy intensity of countries at
different stage of development was figured out. Following conclusions
could be obtained,
(1) Based on 3GR model, there is a liner relationship between GREC
and GREO or GREI and an inverse relationship between GREI and
GREO in nine selected countries, when the equivalent value of
(1+GREOi) or (1+GREIi) or (1+GRECi) is a constant.
(2) The equivalent value of GREO are in the following orders,
developed countries < developing countries < the least developed
countries, while that of GREI have the opposite orders. The orders
of the equivalent value of GREC are developed countries, the least
developed countries and developing countries from small to large.
The least developed countries own the largest potential to realize
further development whether in economic expansion, technical
innovation or in optimize industrial structure while these potential
in developed countries are the smallest and in developing countries
are at the middle level; the development in developing countries
shows the most growth going forward.
(3) The change in energy consumption is codetermined by EO effect,
EI effect and their interactive effect. EO effect shows the leading
position among the three effects, especially in developing countries
and the least developed countries. In developed countries, EC
change, EO effect and EI effect are both change in a tight range.
While in developing countries and the least developed countries,
these ranges are rather large. The development in developed
countries is entering into a bottleneck period while in the other
two types of countries are experiencing the golden period.
Acknowledgments
This study was supported by the Open Fund of State Key
Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, Sichuan
University (Number: SKHL1523).
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