Engineering Structures 228 (2021) 111486

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Engineering Structures
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/engstruct

Probability analysis of web cracking of corroded prestressed concrete

box-girder bridges considering aleatory and epistemic uncertainties
Yiming Yang a, b, Jianxin Peng b, *, Xinhua Liu b, Steve C.S. Cai c, Jianren Zhang b
a
School of Civil Engineering, Hunan City University, Yiyang, Hunan 413000, China
b
School of Civil Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha, Hunan 410114, China
c
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Reasonable assessment of web cracking probability is essential to ensure the service performance of corroded
Box-girder prestressed concrete (PC) bridges. In this paper, a time-dependent prediction model of effective prestress for
Web cracking different prestress tensioning techniques and a corrosion propagation model are established. Meanwhile, an
Corrosion
assessment approach of web cracking probability considering both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties is pro­
Prestress tensioning technique
Uncertainty
posed. The case analysis results show that the doubled-tensioned prestress technique is obviously more effective
in decreasing the web cracking probability than the traditional prestress tensioning technique. The existing
probabilistic method that only considers the aleatory uncertainty may greatly underestimate the probability of
web cracking. In comparison, the fastest time to reach the threshold value of web cracking probability when
considering the epistemic uncertainty is over 11% earlier than that of using the existing methods. Additionally,
the epistemic uncertainty of the chloride diffusion coefficient among the selected corrosion parameters has a
most significant impact on the probability of web cracking. Therefore, the epistemic uncertainty of corrosion
parameters, especially for the chloride diffusion coefficient, should be minimized as much as possible in this
assessment process.

1. Introduction The uncertainties of calculation parameter can be divided into

Prestressed concrete (PC) box-girder bridges are widely used in long-
span bridge constructions due to their economic and aesthetic advan­
tages [1]. However, cracks that appear in the webs have become a
common source of damage in long-span PC box-girder bridges due to
excessive prestress loss [2], corrosion [3], and the adverse effect of
dynamic load on concrete creep and crack development [4,5]. This issue
limits the wide use of this bridge type all over the world. For this reason,
there are currently many studies directing much effort to the web
cracking of PC box-girder bridges. However, these studies mainly carry
on deterministic analyses and focus on the cause analysis for web
cracking or the numerical analysis for the cracking process by means of
finite element models [6–9]. In fact, web cracking of PC box-girder
bridges is a very complex process, in which the material parameters,
environmental parameters, and analysis modeling are uncertain or time-
dependent. As a result, a time-dependent probabilistic model of web
cracking under uncertainty is needed to assess the performance of
bridges with web cracking.
aleatory and epistemic uncertainty based on the sources of uncertainty,
and the former is inherent randomness in the collection process of
parameter whereas the latter is mainly caused by incomplete informa­
tion and cognition [10–12]. In the traditional probability analysis, only
the aleatory uncertainty is considered [13], or at most the uncertainty
from all sources is considered as the overall uncertainty [14]. With the
development of uncertainty analysis in structural engineering, the
distinction of epistemic uncertainty and its corresponding impacts are
gradually studied by a few scholars. Beer et al. [10] reviewed the clas­
sification of uncertainty in engineering, and further introduced the
application of imprecise probability methods that can consider both
aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. By using the imprecise probability-
based method and the purely probabilistic method, Zhang [14] evalu­
ated the durability reliability of a corroded RC girder considering the
effect of epistemic uncertainties of corrosion parameters. Based on the
marginal integration method, Ma et al. [15] proposed a probability
assessment method for structural corrosion damage considering both
aleatory and epistemic uncertainties of initial parameters. All of the

* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: jianxinpeng@csust.edu.cn (J. Peng).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2020.111486
Received 12 February 2020; Received in revised form 17 October 2020; Accepted 24 October 2020
Available online 23 November 2020
0141-0296/© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Y. Yang et al.
above results highlight the importance of considering both aleatory and
epistemic uncertainties in engineering structural analysis. Therefore, the
effect of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties of materials, envi­
ronments and modeling variations should be considered in the proba­
bility analysis of web cracking of corroded PC box-girder bridges.
Vertical prestress loss is a main cause of web concrete cracking, and
its value is closely related to the type of vertical prestressing steel and
the prestress tensioning technology [16]. The existing prestress
tensioning technology is mainly divided into the traditional prestress
tensioning technology with vertical prestressing bars (named TPTT
hereafter) described in [17] and the double-tensioned prestress tech­
nology with prestressing tendons (named DTPT hereafter) proposed in
[2]. The effective vertical prestress and the vertical compressive stress
reserve of web concrete may be significantly different for these two
tensioning procedures [16], which will affect the cracking resistance of
web concrete. Therefore, it is very important to assess the effect of
different prestress tensioning technologies on the prestress loss and
cracking performance of web concrete.
It is well recognized that chloride-induced corrosion is an important
cause of deterioration of concrete structures in marine environment
[18–22]. Many researchers have focused on the impact of chloride-
induced corrosion on the cross-sectional area and strength of pre­
stressed tendons or reinforcing bars, concrete cracking, and structural
load-carrying capacity. For example, Zhang et al. [23] quantified the
longitudinal variation of the cross-sectional area based on the ratio of
the average to minimum cross-sectional areas of corroded steel rebars,
and presented a corresponding probability distribution model. Darma­
wan and Stewart [19] studied the spatial and temporal maximum pit-
depth data for prestressing wires based on the accelerated pitting
corrosion tests. Stewart [24] further researched the mechanical
behavior of the pitting corrosion of prestressing steel and the effect of
corrosion on structural reliability based on the works from [19].
Although some useful conclusions have been obtained from the existing
studies, the prediction model of residual cross-sectional area of pre­
stressing steel considering the uneven spatial distribution of pits and the
effect of prestress on chloride-induced corrosion process need to be
further determined.
The objective of this study is to propose a probability analysis
method of web cracking of corroded PC box-girder bridges considering
both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. First, the time-dependent
prestress loss model for TPTT and DTPT are introduced. Then, a time-
dependent corrosion propagation model is established. After that, an
assessment approach of web cracking probability incorporating the
aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, corrosion, and prestress loss is
proposed. Finally, the effects of different prestress tensioning tech­
niques, corrosion, and epistemic uncertainty on the probability of web
cracking are also discussed.
2. Time-dependent deterioration model
2.1. Prediction model of effective prestress
According to JTG3362-2018 specification [25], the prestress loss
calculation of the post-tensioned concrete members can be divided into
three instantaneous loss items (σ pF, σ pA, and σ pES) and two long-term
time-dependent loss items (σpLTR and σpLTSC). Here, σ pF is the prestress
loss caused by the friction between prestressing steel and duct, σ pA is the
prestress loss induced by the anchorage set, σ pES is the sum of all
prestress losses or gains caused by the elastic shortening or extension at
the time of application of prestress and/or external loads, σ pLTR is the
long-term prestress loss caused by the prestressing steel relaxation, and
σ pLTSC is the long-term prestress loss caused by the coupled effect of
shrinkage and creep of concrete.
For transverse and longitudinal prestressing tendons, the calculation
2
Engineering Structures 228 (2021) 111486
method of their instantaneous loss σpA can be referred to the JTG3362-
2018 specification [25]. For vertical prestressing bars used in TPTT, the
perpendicularity of the anchorage has a great influence on the vertical
prestress loss when calculating σpA, and the prestress loss caused by the
deviation angle error of anchorage installation (σpA-2) can be repre­
sented as [26]
σ pA− = (tanθ × D/2L) × Ep (1)
2
where θ is the installation deviation angle, D is the outside diameter of
the anchor nut, L is the length of the prestressing tendon, and EP is the
elastic modulus of vertical prestressing bars.
For prestressing tendons used in DTPT, since the prestressing steel
strand is a flexible material, the impact of the anchor installation error
on the instantaneous prestress loss σ pA-2 can be eliminated. As such, the
effective prestress (σeff) of vertical prestressing bars used in TPTT and
prestressing steel strands used in DTPT at time t can be respectively
evaluated by Eqs (2) and (3) as
[ ]
σ eff ,pb (t) = σcon,pb − σpA + σpA− 2 + σ pF + σpES + σpLTR (t) + σpLTSC (t) (2)
[ ]
σ eff ,pt (t) = σ con,pt − σpA + σ pF + σpES + σpLTR (t) + σpLTSC (t) (3)
where σ con,pb and σ con,pt are the tension control stress of vertical pre­
stressing steels used in TPTT and DTPT, respectively. Calculations of
σ pLTR(t) and σ pLTSC(t) at time t can be found in [26]. In addition, the
existing research results show that the effect of corrosion on prestress
loss is basically negligible [27], so the coupled effect of corrosion and
long-term prestress loss is not considered here.
2.2. Time-dependent corrosion propagation model
2.2.1. Corrosion initiation time
Existing research shows that a smaller concrete compressive stress
level can inhibit the penetration of chloride ions in concrete structures,
while a larger compressive stress level of concrete has the opposite effect
due to the transverse deformation and micro-cracks [28,29]. The critical
value of the compressive stress level is about 0.3 times the standard
value of concrete axial compressive strength [28]. Concrete tensile stress
will also accelerate the penetration of chloride ions [30]. As a result, the
corrosion initiation time of PC structures will change accordingly.
Considering the stress level of concrete being time-dependent and
assuming the concrete stress level and chloride diffusion coefficient
during each time period of service being constant, the chloride con­
centration at each moment can be calculated by using iterative calcu­
lation method, that is, the chloride concentration at the previous time is
taken as the initial value in next period, and then the chloride concen­
tration value at each time can be obtained in turn. The relationship
between the concrete stress level and chloride diffusion coefficient at
time period [ti-1, ti] can be presented as
{ }
Dσ (ti ) = f [σ(ti− 1 ) ]Dσ (ti− 1 ) = 1 + k1 σ(ti− 1 ) + k2 [σ(ti− 1 ) ]2 Dσ (ti− 1 ) (4)
where Dσ(ti) is the chloride diffusion coefficient at time ti, σ(ti-1) is the
stress level of concrete at time ti-1, and Dσ(t0) is the initial chloride
diffusion coefficient with no stress at time t0 (day) that is 28d in this
paper. f[σ (ti-1)] is the stress influencing coefficient at time period [ti-1, ti],
in which the values of k1 and k2 are − 1.4 and − 0.2, respectively, when
the lower concrete compressive stress level is applied [30]. It is worth
noting that although the diffusion coefficient of chloride ions at different
positions in concrete and time ti is not a constant value and much
dependent on the distribution of the porosity in concrete which is not
uniformly distributed [31], the effect of uneven distribution of porosity
in concrete on the diffusion coefficient of chloride ions is not considered
here for simplifying.
Y. Yang et al. Engineering Structures 228 (2021) 111486

The corrosion initiation time of prestressing steels is defined as the in which

time when the chloride concentration on its surface reaches the critical
chloride concentration. Considering that there are large differences in D2w − [Dw − 0.0232icorr (t − tw ) ]2
λw = ( )2 (8)
existing time-dependent models of surface chloride concentration D2w − Dw − 0.0232icorr− exp T0− exp
[32–34] and the applicability of these models need to be further studied, ( )
as well as the time-dependent surface chloride concentration has little α = α0− μw = μ0−
1
ln
lw
(9)
exp , +
effect on the long-term diffusion process of chloride ions in concrete
exp
α0− exp L0− exp
[35], the surface chloride concentration is described as a time-invariant
parameter, just like the previous studies of [36–38]. Then, based on the where icorr is the corrosion current density, Dw and lw are the initial
Fick’s second law of diffusion, the chloride concentration at the depth x diameter and length of the wire (mm), respectively, tw is the corrosion
from the concrete surface and time ti can be expressed as initiation time (years), T0-exp = 0.03836 years, icorr-exp = 186 μA/cm2,

⎧ { [ ]}
⎪
⎪ x
⎪
⎪ C(x, t1 ) = C0 + (Cs − C0 ) 1 − erf √̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅ i=1
⎪
⎨ 2 f (σ(t0 ) )Dσ (t0 )t1
{ [ ]} (5)
⎪
⎪
⎪
⎪ x
⎩ C(x, ti ) = C(x, ti− 1 ) + [Cs − C(x, ti− 1 )] 1 − erf
⎪ √ ̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
̅ i⩾2
2 f (σ(ti− 1 ) )Dσ (ti− 1 )(ti − ti− 1 )

L0-exp = 650 mm, μ0-exp = 0.84, and α0-exp = 8.1.

where C0 is the initial chloride concentration, C(x, ti-1) is the chloride
concentration at a depth x and exposure time ti-1, Cs is the initial surface
chloride concentration, and erf [ ] is the error function.
2.2.2. Corrosion model
The main adverse effects of chloride-induced corrosion are the cross-
sectional area loss and the reduction of yield strength of prestressing and
non-prestressing steels [21]. At present, the pitting model proposed by
Val and Melchers [39] is widely used to calculate the cross-sectional
area of reinforcement bar (including the non-prestressing and pre­
stressing bars) after corrosion, and this model is also used here. For
prestressing steel strands with 7 wires, it is assumed that the corrosion
process of each wire is independent of each other, and only when the pit
depth of any outer wire is equal to its initial diameter, the inner wire
begins to corrode. In addition, since the randomness of corrosion process
and the spatial variability of the pit distribution make it difficult to
characterize the cross-sectional area loss of prestressing steel strands,
the six outer wires are assumed to begin to corrode almost at the same
time and the pit depth of each wire is assumed to be almost the same for
simplicity, as described in [19,40,41]. Then, the net cross-sectional area
of a 7-wire prestressing steel strand at time t is the sum of the areas of six
outer wires and one inner wire at that time, and it can be expressed as
∑
6 [ ] [ M ]
Ap (t) = Aow,q t, pM
ow,q (t) + Aiw t, piw (t)
q=1
[ ] [ M ]
where Aow,q t, pM
ow,q (t) andAiw t, piw (t) are the cross-sectional areas of
the qth outer wire and inner wire, respectively, of the prestressing steel
strand at time t. pM M
ow,q (t) and piw (t) are the maximum pit depths of the qth
outer wire and inner wire, respectively, of the prestressing steel strand at
time t. Since the probability model proposed by Darmawan and Stewart
[19] can better describe the randomness of corrosion process and also
has high reliability, it is adopted here to calculate the maximum pit
depth. The probability distribution function of the maximum pit depth is
To simplify the calculation process, the difference of corrosion effect
among the strands inside the prestressed tendons is neglected here since
we do not know exactly the relative location of each strand in the
tendon. After obtaining the effect of corrosion on cross-sectional area of
prestressed steel strands, the corresponding residual cross-sectional area
of prestressing tendons can be further obtained by multiplying the re­
sidual cross-sectional area of each strand and the number of strands.
Additionally, existing research results show that the yield strength of
reinforcement bar and steel strand reduce linearly with the corrosion
loss, and the relevant time-dependent degradation models are found in
[41].
2.3. Principal tension stress analysis of web
The web of concrete box-girders is typically in three-dimensional
stress state during the service time, including the longitudinal, verti­
cal, and transverse normal stress, as well as the shear stress in different
directions, and it changes with the position of concrete fiber. For these
reasons, it is difficult to analyze the principal tensile stress of the web
concrete fiber unless a computer program is used. Therefore, the
simplified two-dimensional stress model provided by the JTG3362-2018
specification [25] is adapted, and the time-dependent effect of model
parameters is also further considered here. The principal tensile stress of
(6) concrete in the web of PC box-girder at time t can be calculated
√̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
[ ] ̅
σ (t) + σcy (t) σ cx (t) − σcy (t) 2
σ tp (t) = cx − + [τ(t) ]2 (10)
2 2
in which
σ cx (t) =
Np (t) Np (t)epn (t)yn (t) MG1 yn (t) [MG2 + MQ (t) ]y0 (t)
− + + (11)
An (t) In (t) In (t) I0 (t)
nApv (t)σeff ,pt(b) (t)
σ cy (t) = 0.6 (12)
bsp

[ ( )] { [ ( )]}
α pM (t) pM (t)
fpM (t) (t, icorr , lw ) = exp − α − μ w exp − exp − α − μ w t > tw (7)
(λw )0.54 (λw )0.54 (λw )0.54

3
Y. Yang et al.
∑
Vs S0 (t) σlp (t)Apb (t)sinθp ⋅Sn (t)
τ(t) = − (13)
bI0 (t) bIn (t)
where σcx(t) is the concrete normal stress at the calculation point under
the combined effect of long-term load and residual prestressing force,
Np(t) is the total force due to prestressing and non-prestressing steels,
An(t) is the net cross-sectional area, epn(t) is the distance from the action
point of Np(t) to the neutral axis of the net section, yn(t) and y0(t) are the
distance from the calculated point to the neutral axis of net and trans­
formed section, respectively. In(t) and I0(t) are the inertia moments of
the net and transformed section, respectively. MG1 and MG2 are the
moments induced by the first-stage and second-stage dead load,
respectively. MQ(t) is the moment induced by the live load, σ cy(t) is the
vertical compressive stress due to vertical prestressing force, σ eff, pt(b)(t)
is the effective prestress of the vertical prestressing steel strand (pre­
stressing bar), n, sp and b are the number, the arrangement spacing of the
vertical prestressing steel of box-girder section, and the web width at the
calculation point, respectively. Apv(t) is the residual cross-sectional area
of the vertical prestressing steel, σ lp(ti), Apb(ti) and θp are the effective
prestressing force, residual cross-sectional area, and the angle between
the tangent and horizontal direction of the longitudinal prestressing
bend-up steels, respectively. Vs is the shear force at the calculation point,
and S0(ti) and Sn(ti) are, respectively, the area moments of the area be­
tween the upper edge and calculated fiber of the transformed and net
section with respect to the centroids of section.
3. Probabilistic analysis
3.1. Aleatory and epistemic uncertainties
As indicated in the previous section, the time-dependent models of
effective prestress, corrosion propagation and principal tension stress
involve a large number of calculation parameters, including the material
parameters, dimension parameters, environmental parameters, load
effects, corrosion-related parameters, etc. In addition, the uncertainty of
relevant calculation models, such as the shrinkage and creep models of
concrete and the probability model of maximum pit depth, in the
calculation process are also usually considered. Due to the limited
resource or incomplete information, these model parameters have not
only aleatory uncertainty but also epistemic uncertainty, so it is difficult
to be accurately characterized by a single distribution. For example,
when a parameter basically subjects to the normal distribution, its mean
and variance cannot be accurately known since they may change in a
certain interval. In this case, the conventional probability method may
result in significant errors. Hence, the effect of both aleatory and
epistemic uncertainties should be considered in the subsequent proba­
bility analysis.
3.2. Probabilistic analysis with aleatory and epistemic uncertainties
The probability box is an imprecise probability method and often
applied in the quantitative uncertainty modeling in many fields [42].
According to the definition of probability box, when the estimated value
of random variable X cannot be estimated by a precise point, its cu­
mulative distribution function (CDF, denoted as FX(x)) also cannot be
usually expressed by a single curve. The actual CDF of a random variable
X will constitute an interval as
[ ]
FX (x)⊆ FX (x), FX (x) (14)
where FX (x) and FX (x) are the lower and upper bounds of the CDFs,
respectively.
For any time-dependent probability calculation model with K
epistemic uncertainty and L aleatory uncertainty variables, the value of
aleatory uncertainty variables can be accurately described, whereas the
values of epistemic uncertainty variables cannot be accurately expressed
4
Engineering Structures 228 (2021) 111486
due to the limited resource or incomplete information, which is often
estimated by experts in the form of interval by using probability box
[43]. Therefore, the probability can be expressed as follows
{[ ] [ ] [ ] }T
Pr (t) = f (t; x) x = xe1 , xe1 , xe2 , xe2 , ..., xeK , xeK , xa1 , xa2 , ..., xaL
(15)
where xei and xei (i = 1, 2, …, K) are the lower and upper bounds of the
ith epistemic uncertainty variable, and xaj (j = 1, 2, …, L) is the jth
aleatory uncertainty variable.
By using different methods, such as the double loop Monte Carlo
method and the integration method of aleatory variables [44], to
propagate the probability box of epistemic uncertainty variable, we can
construct the probability box for the target probability function
considering both the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties as
[ ] [ ]
Pr (t)⊆ Pr (t), Pr (t) = f (t; x), f (t; x) (16)
where Pr (t) and Pr (t) are the lower and upper bounds, respectively, of
the previous probability function at time t.
It is worth noting that when the cognition degree of corrosion
propagation or web cracking process is higher, and the relevant model
parameter information is more complete, the value of model parameter
vector x will be more precisely estimated. As a result, the probability
range of the initial corrosion and web cracking will be reduced. When all
epistemic uncertainty variables are transformed into aleatory uncer­
tainty variables, the final probability box will be converted into a
deterministic value accordingly, i.e., the same as the traditional proba­
bility methods [43].
To study the effect of prestress on the penetration of chloride ions
and the behavior of web cracking, the corrosion initiation time and
probability of web cracking are discussed considering both the TPTT and
DTPT. When the chloride concentration reaches the threshold chloride
concentration, the prestressing steel is considered to begin to corrode.
Then, the cumulative probability (Pfc) of corrosion initiation for a PC
structure subjected to chloride-induced corrosion during the time in­
terval (0, t) is given as
{ }
Pfc,ci (0, t)⊆ 1 − Pr[GCI (t, xCI ) > 0 ], 1 − Pr [GCI (t, xCI ) > 0 ] (17)
GCI (t, xCI ) = Ccr − C(t, Cd ) (18)
where GCI(t, XCI) is the corrosion initiation performance function at time
t, and xCI is the vector of the corresponding uncertain variables. Pr[ ] and
Pr [ ] are the upper and lower bounds of the corresponding probability
value, respectively. C(t, Cd) is the chloride concentration on the surface
of prestressing steel at time t, which can be obtained from Eq. (5). Cd is
the thickness of the concrete cover, and Ccr is the threshold chloride
concentration.
Similarly, when the principal tension stress of any concrete fiber at
the web exceeds its tension strength, the web is considered to crack.
Assuming that there are T calculation points for the concrete principal
tensile stress in web, then the cumulative probability of web cracking
during the time interval (0, t) is given as
{ [⋂ ]
T
Pfc,wc (0, t)⊆ 1 − Pr GWC,i (t, xWC ) > 0 , 1
i=1
[⋂
T ]}
− Pr GWC,i (t, xWC ) > 0
i=1
(19)
GWC,i (t, xWC ) = [σtp ] − σ tp,i (t, xWC ) i = 1, 2, …, T (20)
where GWC,i(t, XWC) is the concrete cracking performance function of ith
Y. Yang et al.
Start procedure
M sampling of K epistemic
uncertainty variables
Select one set of sampling results to
convert epistemic into aleatory
uncertainty variables
Construct the time-dependent
probability curve of each epistemic
uncertain parameter vector
No M samples of all epistemic
variables are considered?
Yes
Obtain all possible time-dependent
probability curves and determine the
final probability box of web cracking
End procedure
Fig. 1. Flow chart of probabilistic analysis considering both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties.
calculation point at time t, xWC is the vector of the corresponding un­
certain variables. [σtp] is the allowable value of principal tension stress
of concrete, taking here as 0.4ftk according to JTG3362-2018 [25], in
which ftk is the standard values of axial tensile strength of concrete.
σ tp,i(t, xWC) is the principal tension stress of concrete fiber at ith calcu­
lation point and time t, which can be calculated by using Eq. (10).
3.3. Probability calculation process
The double loop Monte Carlo method is adopted here to propagate
the probability box of epistemic uncertainty variables. In the outer loop,
the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) is used to sample all epistemic
uncertainty variables, and the minimum number of sampling times of M
should be K3 + 2 [45], in which K is the number of epistemic uncertainty
variables. After completing the sampling step in the outer loop, all
epistemic uncertainty variables are converted into aleatory uncertainty
variables. Then, the LHS sampling in the inner loop is mainly for all
aleatory uncertainty variables, and the corresponding number of
(a) Overall layout of case bridge
Fig. 2. Bridge configuration.
Engineering Structures 228 (2021) 111486
Outer loop: epistemic Inner loop: aleatory
uncertainty uncertainty
Select one set of sampling
N sampling of all aleatory
results of aleatory uncertainty
uncertainty variables
variables
Form a new set of aleatory
Calculate the effective
uncertainty variables (total
prestress by using Eq. (2) or (3)
quantity is K+L)
Compute the chloride Calculate the residual cross-
concentration by using Eqs. (4) sectional area (Eqs. (6) to (9))
and (5) and yield strength
Obtain the probability of web
Obtain the corrosion initiation
cracking at time t by using Eqs.
time
(19) and (20)
Compute the principal tensile N samples set of
No
stress of the web concrete fiber all aleatory variables are
by using Eq. (10) considered?
Yes
aleatory uncertainty variables and samples are K + L and N, respec­
tively. The flow chart of probabilistic analysis of web cracking consid­
ering both the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties is shown in Fig. 1.
4. Application example
4.1. Bridge description
The proposed probability analysis method for web cracking is
applied to a three-span PC box-girder bridge. The span layout of the
superstructure of main bridge is 80 m + 150 m + 80 m, and the overall
layout of this bridge and the arrangement of longitudinal and vertical
prestressing steels of analysis section are shown in Fig. 2. For the original
design, the traditional prestress tensioning technique is adopted, and the
hot-rolled ribbed steel bar of JL32 type is used for the vertical pre­
stressing bar in the web. The jacking stress σcon is 706.5 MPa with the
YGM anchorage, which is a nut for tensioning the hot-rolled ribbed steel
bar. Due to the excessive prestress loss, the double-tensioned prestress
(b) Arrangement of longitudinal and vertical
prestressing steels of analysis section (unit: cm)
5
Y. Yang et al. Engineering Structures 228 (2021) 111486

and there is a function relationship between the surface chloride con­

Fig. 3. Partial measured or suggested values of critical chloride concentration.
technique is employed in this design, and the lower relaxation steel
strands with a diameter of 15.24 mm are used. The adopted jacking
stress σ con is 0.75fpk of the standard yield stress (i.e. fpk = 1860 MPa) of
the strands.
4.2. Calculation parameters
4.2.1. Parameters with epistemic uncertainty
The critical chloride concentration (Ccr) is an important factor
affecting the corrosion propagation process, and its probability charac­
teristics vary greatly when the structure is located in marine environ­
ment. To characterize the probability box of critical chloride
concentration, partial measured or suggested values of the critical
chloride concentration are summarized from previous studies [46–51],
as shown in Fig. 3. As indicated, although the critical chloride concen­
tration changes in a large range (0.2% to 2% of cement weight), these
results show that its average value is mainly between 0.5% and 1% of
cement weight. In addition, the critical chloride concentration is
commonly modeled as a normal distribution, and the value of COV can
be taken as 0.2 [52]. Thus, it is modeled as a Gaussian probability box
with an interval mean value [0.5%, 1%] of cement weight (assuming
350 kg/m3 here) and fixed COV value 0.2.
The field test results of 1158 concrete bridges located in marine
environments provided by McGee et al. [37] shows that the surface
chloride concentration (Cs) can be modelled by a lognormal distribution,
centration and distance from the structure to coast line. When the dis­
tance increases from 0.1 km to 2.84 km, the corresponding mean value
of surface chloride concentration decreases from 2.95 kg/m3 to 0.03 kg/
m3. Based on the exposure data and structural investigation results in
recent 30 years in the same region as the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau
(HZM) project site, Li et al. [38] found that the surface chloride con­
centration is subjected to the lognormal distribution with mean and COV
of 2.1 kg/m3 and 0.32, respectively. Since only a few measured data
have been reported, there is a large epistemic uncertainty in the surface
chloride concentration of structures located in a marine environment.
Generally speaking, the first-order statistical characteristics (such as
mean or median) are more important than other statistical parameters
when considering the epistemic uncertainty of limited data [53]. Thus,
the epistemic uncertainty of the mean value of surface chloride con­
centration is mainly considered here. Based on the above research re­
sults, it is assumed that the surface chloride concentration is modeled as
a lognormal probability box with an interval mean value of [2.1, 2.95],
and the value of COV is conservatively taken as 0.32.
Similar to the surface chloride concentration, the chloride diffusion
coefficient (D0) in concrete located in marine environment is rarely
reported, and its value is affected by the water cement ratio of concrete
and the type of admixture. Based on the chloride diffusion test in
concrete with 13% fly ash and 7% silica fume, Wu [54] obtained the
chloride diffusion coefficients of C50 and C60 concrete being 2.92 ×
10-12 m2/s and 1.81 × 10-12 m2/s, respectively. In addition, the
measured data show that the chloride diffusion coefficient of C50
concrete used in the Hangzhou Bay Bridge is about 1.5–3.5 × 10-12 m2/
s [55], and the chloride diffusion coefficient of C55 concrete used in
the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge is subjected to the normal dis­
tribution with a mean of 2.8 × 10-12 m2/s and COV of 0.2 [38]. Thus, to
estimate the chloride diffusion coefficient more accurately, the chlo­
ride diffusion coefficient of C50 concrete is modeled as the Gaussian
probability box with an interval mean value of [1.5, 3.5] × 10-12 m2/s
and COV of 0.2. Given more measured information, the estimation
parameters of Ccr, Cs, and D0 can be easily updated to reduce their
epistemic uncertainty.
4.2.2. Other parameters without epistemic uncertainty
For the original design using TPTT, the anchorage deformation and
reinforcement retraction △l is taken as 3 mm, the installation deviation
angle θ is 2 degrees, and the longitudinal spacing of the vertical pre­
stressing steel is 500 mm. For the existing design using DTPT, the lon­
gitudinal spacing is also 500 mm, the value of △l and θ are set as 1 mm

Table 1
Statistical parameters of aleatory uncertainty variables.
Description of parameters Distribution (Mean, COV) Source

Concrete cover, Cd Normal (1.0178*, 0.0496) [57]

Initial elastic modulus of concrete, Ec0 (MPa) Normal (3.55 × 104, 0.04)
Initial elasticity modulus of HRB, Ep-HRB (MPa) Normal (2 × 105, 0.04)
Initial elasticity modulus of lower relaxation steel strand, Ep-pt (MPa) Normal (1.95 × 105, 0.04)
Strength of normal reinforcement (HPB 300, Diameter = 10 and 12 mm), fsy-HPB300 (MPa) Normal (324.6, 0.1211)
Strength of normal reinforcement (HRB 335, Diameter = 16 and 20 mm), fsy-HRB335 (MPa) Normal (363.4, 0.0791)
Initial compressive strength of concrete, fc0 (MPa) Normal (52.8, 0.162) Field test
Standard values of axial tensile strength of concrete, ftk (MPa) Normal (2.65, 0.12) D
Design value of tension strength of HRB, fpy-RHB (MPa) Normal (818.4, 0.04) [58]
Design value of tension strength of lower relaxation steel strand, fpy-ss (MPa) Normal (1395, 0.04)
Penetration ratio, R Normal (6.0, 0.18) [19]
Corrosion current density, icorr (μA/cm2) Normal (1, 0.2) [41]
Uncertainty coefficient of concrete creep model, Ψ c Normal (1, 0.339) [59]
Uncertainty coefficient of concrete shrinkage model, Ψ s Normal (1, 0.541)
Annual relative humidity, RH (%) Normal (76.9, 0.061) CMA
Annual average temperature, T (℃) Normal (21.7, 0.251)
Dead load moment, Mdle Normal (1.0148*, 0.0431) [57]
Live load moment, Mlle Extreme I (0.7995*, 0.0862)
Shear force, Vs Normal (1.0148*, 0.0431)

Note: * indicates the ratio of actual value to nominal value; D = design data; CMA = China Meteorological Administration; HRB = hot-rolled ribbed steel bar.

6
Y. Yang et al. Engineering Structures 228 (2021) 111486

Fig. 4. Finite element model for half-span bridge.

and 0 degree, respectively, and the other parameters are the same as
those used in TPTT. In addition, although the dynamic load will accel­
erate the creep of concrete and therefore result in crack development in
concrete girder [4,5], considering that the main purpose of this paper is
to propose a probability analysis method of web cracking considering
both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, as well as to simplify the
calculation, the adverse effect of dynamic load is not considered here,
and only the effect of sustained static load is included. The dead load
mainly includes the weight of cast-in-place concrete and asphalt con­
crete, and the live load mainly refers to the vehicle load here due to the
traffic restriction of crowd. According to the JTG D60-2015 specification
[56], the highway level I is adopted as live load model, which includes a
uniformly distributed lane load of 10.5 kN/m and a concentrated load of
360 kN, and the transverse distribution coefficient of vehicle load is 0.78
for three lanes. The nominal values of bending moment generated by
dead and live load, as well as the nominal value of shear force are ob­
tained by conducting Midas Civil finite element analysis. The simulation
times of LHS are respectively M = 100 and N = 106. The other random
parameters with an aleatory uncertainty related to the calculation are Fig. 6. Probability of web cracking of 41th element without considering the
shown in Table 1. effect of corrosion.

4.3. Results and discussions

4.3.1. Web principal tension stress

The prototype bridge is simplified as a plane finite element model,
and the analysis model of the final completion stage is shown in Fig. 4. In
the finite element model obtained by MIDAS Civil, only a half segment of
the full girder is modeled utilizing the symmetric nature of the geometry
and loading, and there are 143 nodes and 130 elements in the model,
including 90 main beam elements. Rigid connections are used between
the main beam and pier.
Fig. 5 shows the distribution of web principal tension stress of all
beam elements in the half-span bridge model when the vertical pre­
stressing steels are not applied. The positive values indicate tensile
stress. As indicated in Fig. 5, the web principal tension stress on both
sides of the pier support is the largest, followed by the regions of about
3L1/4 from end of middle-span (41th element) and L2/4 from end of
side-span, in which L1 and L2 are the lengths of middle-span and side-
span, respectively. Therefore, these areas can be seen as potential lo­
cations of web cracking. Meanwhile, considering the fact that cracks are
Fig. 7. Cumulative probability of corrosion initiation considering the effect
often detected at 3L1/4 from end of mid-span of bridge in service, the
of prestress.
middle section of 41th element is selected as the analysis section to

Fig. 5. Distribution of web principal tension stress of half-span bridge.

7
Y. Yang et al.
assess the web cracking probability within the design service life (100
years). In addition, only three typical concrete fibers at the upper and
lower haunch and the centroid of initial concrete section are selected as
the calculation points of principal tensile stress for simplifying.
4.3.2. Effect of different prestress tensioning techniques
Fig. 6 shows the cumulative probability of web cracking of the 41th
element without considering the effect of corrosion for both TPTT and
DTPT. As indicated, the cumulative probability of web cracking for
TPTT increases rapidly over time due to the time-dependent increase of
long-term prestress loss, and its value reaches about 0.923 during 100
years of service, which is much higher than the specified value of 0.159
for the cumulative failure probability of bridge in normal use (reliability
index is 1.0) [52]. However, the corresponding value for DTPT is only
2.4 × 10-3 in 100 years of service, which indicates that the bridge has
good crack resistance performance in the whole service period.
The main reason for the significant difference is that the instanta­
neous prestress loss of the vertical prestressing bar used in TPTT is up to
about 41.5%, resulting in its initial effective prestress force is only
60.9% of the corresponding value of the prestressing tendon used in
DTPT. Accordingly, the vertical compressive stress of web concrete is
only 1.77 MPa for TPTT, which is 39.1% lower than the corresponding
value of 2.92 MPa for DTPT. This ultimately leads to the cumulative
failure probability of web cracking for TPTT is two orders of magnitude
higher than that of DTPT. Therefore, by providing a higher compressive
stress reserve for the web concrete, the DTPT is obviously more effective
in decreasing the web cracking probability than the TPTT.
4.3.3. Effect of corrosion
(a) Corrosion initiation
Fig. 7 shows the effect of prestress on the cumulative probability of
corrosion initiation for both TPTT and DTPT. As indicated in Fig. 7,
when the epistemic uncertainties of Ccr, Cs, and D0 are not included in
the probability analysis (denoted as NEU), the cumulative probability of
corrosion initiation in the first 25 years of service without considering
the effect of stress (NS) is the largest, followed by the corresponding
values for TPTT and DTPT. For example, the corresponding values in the
12th year are 0.620, 0.502 and 0.415, respectively, for the three con­
ditions. When all epistemic uncertainties are considered, Fig. 7 clearly
shows that the cumulative probability values of upper (UB) and lower
bound (LB) of corrosion initiation are inversely proportional to the
magnitude of effective prestress within the first 40 years of service.
These findings indicate that, for both TPTT and DTPT, the application of
prestress can effectively postpone the ingress of the chloride ions into
concrete, and then reduce the cumulative probability of corrosion
Fig. 8. Cumulative probability of web cracking considering the effect
of corrosion.
8
Engineering Structures 228 (2021) 111486
initiation. Additionally, it is also found that the DTPT is more effective
than TPTT in decreasing the cumulative probability of corrosion
initiation.
(b) Web Cracking
Fig. 8 shows the effect of corrosion on the web cracking for TPTT and
DTPT. As indicated, considering the effect of corrosion will greatly in­
crease the web cracking probability, especially for the case of DTPT. For
instance, in the 50th year of service, the web cracking probability for
TPTT without considering the effect of corrosion is 0.524 and is 0.852
when the effect of corrosion is considered. Correspondingly, when DTPT
is used, it increases from 3.87 × 10-4 to 0.073. The main reason is that
the loss of cross-sectional area of vertical prestressing tendons in DTPT is
greater than that of vertical prestressed bars used in TPTT at the same
time. As a result, the compressive stress of the web concrete decreases
faster for DTPT, thereby correspondingly increasing the cumulative
probability of web cracking rapidly. To summarize, the cumulative
failure probability of web cracking in PC box-girder bridges is greatly
underestimated when the effect of corrosion is not considered, so the
effect of corrosion should be integrated into the probability analysis of
web cracking.
4.3.4. Effect of epistemic uncertainty of corrosion parameters
Fig. 9 shows the cumulative probability of web cracking for TPTT
and DTPT considering the effect of corrosion and the epistemic un­
certainties of corrosion parameters Ccr, Cs, and D0. As indicated, the web
cracking probability for TPTT in the 50th year of service vary between
0.723 and 0.910, and correspondingly between 0.018 and 0.196 for
DTPT. The upper bound of the above two conditions are 1.26 and 10.89
times of the lower bound, respectively. The cumulative probability of
web cracking from the existing probabilistic methods are respectively
0.852 and 0.086. This indicates that the existing probabilistic method
considering only the aleatory uncertainty greatly underestimate the
probability of the web cracking compared with the upper bound. In
addition, under the coupled effect of all epistemic uncertainty parame­
ters, the fastest time for the failure probability to rise to the failure
probability threshold is only 16 years for TPTT, which is 11.1% ahead of
that of existing probability analysis method. The corresponding values
for DTPT are 48 years and 12.7%, respectively. This comparison clearly
shows the necessity of considering the epistemic uncertainty of corro­
sion parameters in web cracking probability analysis.
To quantify the effect of epistemic uncertainties on the web cracking
probability, the relative variation value (RVV) of the web cracking
probability Pfc ⊆[PL , PU ] is defined here as(PU − PL )/(PU + PL ). Fig. 10
and Table 2 show that the RRV value for DTPT is usually greater than
that of TPTT when all epistemic uncertainties of corrosion parameters
are considered, which is mainly caused by the greater loss of cross-
sectional area of the prestressing tendons used in DTPT. Furthermore,
the sensitivity analysis results of the epistemic uncertainties of Ccr, Cs,
and D0 are also carried out. As indicated in Fig. 10 and Table 2, in the
40th year of service, the associated interval probability of web cracking
considering the epistemic uncertainty of D0 for TPTT and DTPT are
[0.614 0.721] and [0.005 0.038], and the RRV values are 8.01% and
76.74%, respectively. The RRV value for TPTT is 10.03% and 17.90%
higher than that of the corresponding value when considering the
epistemic uncertainty of Ccr and Cs, while the corresponding value for
DTPT is 36.43% and 58.00%, respectively. The findings show that, no
matter which prestress tensioning technique is used, the epistemic un­
certainty of D0 considering the effect of corrosion usually has a most
significant impact on the probability of web cracking, followed by Ccr
and Cs. As such, the epistemic uncertainty of corrosion parameters,
especially for D0, should be minimized as much as possible in the
assessment of web cracking probability.
5. Conclusions
Aiming at comparing the probabilistic influence of the traditional
Y. Yang et al. Engineering Structures 228 (2021) 111486

(a) Traditional prestress tensioning technique (TPTT) (b) Doubled-tensioned prestress technique (DTPT)

Fig. 9. Cumulative probability of web cracking considering the coupled effect of all epistemic uncertainty parameters.

concrete, the doubled-tensioned prestress technique is obviously more

effective in decreasing the web cracking probability than the traditional
prestress tensioning technique.
(2) For both TPTT and DTPT, the application of prestress can effec­
tively postpone the ingress of the chloride ions into concrete and reduce
the probability of corrosion initiation. Meanwhile, the probability of
web cracking of PC box-girder bridges will be greatly underestimated
when the effect of corrosion is not considered.
(3) The existing probabilistic method that only consider the aleatory
uncertainty greatly underestimate the probability of web cracking
compared with the upper bound. In this studied example, the fastest
time to reach the target value of the web cracking probability when
considering the epistemic uncertainty is over 11% faster than that of
using the existing methods.
(4) No matter which prestress tensioning technique is used, the
epistemic uncertainty of D0 usually has a most significant impact on the
Fig. 10. Sensitivity analysis results of the epistemic uncertainties of Ccr, Cs, and probability of web cracking, followed by Ccr and Cs.
D0 based on the RVV. The limitation of this study is that the values of COV of corrosion
parameters are assumed as a fixed value due to the less measured values
of corrosion parameters in similar service environment. In the future
Table 2 research, more measured data need to be obtained to update the char­
Probability of web cracking and the corresponding value of relative variation
acteristic parameters of previous epistemic uncertainty variables, and
(RVV).
the effect of the change of characteristic parameters on web cracking
Epistemic uncertainty Probability of web cracking RVV probability needs to be further studied. Moreover, this paper ignores the
parameters (fixed or interval value)
effect of uneven distribution of porosity in concrete on the diffusion
TPTT DTPT TPTT DTPT coefficient of chloride ions, and the effect of uneven distribution of
None 0.671 0.014 – – porosity in concrete on web cracking probability is also the focus of
Ccr [0.624 [0.007 7.28% 56.25% future research.
0.722] 0.025]
Cs [0.617 [0.009 6.87% 48.57%
0.708] 0.026] Declaration of Competing Interest
D0 [0.614 [0.005 8.01% 76.74%
0.721] 0.038]
All consider [0.542 [0.003 16.62% 88.24%
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
0.758] 0.048] interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.

prestress tensioning technique and the double-tensioned prestress tech­ Acknowledgments

nique on the web cracking of long-span box-girder bridges, this paper
built a time-dependent prestress loss model, a time-dependent corrosion
propagation model, and a probabilistic model of web cracking for box-
girder bridges considering the coupled effect of prestress loss, corrosion,
and the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties of corrosion parameters. The
effects of different prestress tensioning techniques, corrosion, and
epistemic uncertainty on the probability of web cracking are also dis­
cussed. The following conclusions can be drawn:
(1) By providing a higher compressive stress reserve for the web
This study was supported by the National Natural Science Founda­
tion of China (Grant No. 52078056) and the Key Project of Hunan
Provincial Education Department (Grant No. 18A136).
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