KEYSTONE:

S-t Revolver Loan

Finalizing The Model

Dr. Ahmet D. ERELÇİN MFIN 803

Outline

Circular Reference

Balancing The Balance Sheet

Cover Page & Dashboard

Ratio Analysis

Remaining Bits & Pieces

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 2

Outline

Circular Reference

Balancing The Balance Sheet

Cover Page & Dashboard

Ratio Analysis

Remaining Bits & Pieces

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 3

 Balance Sheet 2019A Cash Flow Statement 2019A Profit & Loss Statement 2019A

Key
Cash & Cash Equivalents EBIT Revenues
Accounts Receivables (+) Depreciation & Amortization
Growth
Inventories (-) Corporate Tax
Other Current Assets (-/+) Change in Net Working Capital
Cost of Goods Sold

Stone
Total Current Assets Accounts Receivables
Inventories
Other Current Assets
Gross Profit
Property, Plant & Equipment
Gross Margin %
Intangibles Account Payables
Other Non-Current Assets Other Current Liabilities
Total Non-Current Assets Other Non-Current Assets Operating Expenses
Other Non-Current Liabilities
Cash From Operations S&M Expenses
Total Assets
Capital Expenditure Stores
Warehouse
Short Term Revolver Loan Cash From Investments
Advertising
Accounts Payables
Shrinkage
Other Current Liabilities Net Change in CAPEX Loan
G&A Expenses
Total Current Liabilities Net Change in L-Term Bank Loan
Net Change in S-Term Revolver Loan
Long Term Loans Interest Income / expense
EBITDA

oan
TL L-T Bank Loan Change in Paid-in-Capital
EBITDA Margin %
USD CAPEX Loan Cash From Financing
Other Non Current Liabilities

e r L Depreciation & Amortization

v
Total Non Current Liabilities Net Change in Cash

ol
ev
EBIT
If only we can find Paid-in-Capital Beginning Cash Balance

R
EBIT Margin %
Retained Earnings Ending Cash Balance

the S-Term Revolver,

m
Shareholders' Equity

r
Financial Income (Expenses)

all the missing parts Total Liabilities

S- Te Interest Income
Interest Expense

The
USD CAPEX Loan

will fall into place: TL L-Term Bank Loan

TL S-Term Revolver Loan

Other Income / (Expenses)

FX Translation Gain
FX Translation Loss

Pretax Income
Pretax Margin %

Corporate Taxes
Tax Loss Carry Forward
Net Income
Net Income Margin

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the 4

Model
 Excel 2010 Tutorial Circular Reference Warning &
Circular Reference Enabling Iterative Calculations
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BPuDV3--Wkg

• A change in S-Term Rovelvor Loan affects:

Cash Flow Statement 2019A Profit & Loss Statement 2019A Balance Sheet 2019A
Cash & Cash Equivalents
Financial Income (Expenses) 3
Net Change in S-Term Revolver Loan 1 Total Current Assets
Interest Income / expense Interest Expense
2 TL S-Term Revolver Loan 2
Cash From Financing Total Assets
Pretax Income
Net Change in Cash Short Term Revolver Loan 1
Net Income 4
Total Current Liabilities
Ending Cash Balance 3
Retained Earnings 4
Shareholders' Equity

Total Liabilities

• Increasing/decreasing one item will not bring all these

statements into balance in one single step.
• At the end, this leads to a “Circular Reference” at Excel.
Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 5
Circular Reference @ EXCEL
When a Circular Reference
is created, an error
message pops-up.

Now, the Excel will solve

your circular reference
in 100 iterations
Windows: File/Options/Formulas
Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 6
#Value! Errors

Ch8_Circ Ref_Sample_2022.xlsx

• Link the Error Cell to “Change in Cash”

=IF(+I2;“Error”;IF(+I3;1;C8))

• Change Error cell to “TRUE”.

• Now the Model is filled with #Value! error messages.
• To repair, change “TRUE” back to “FALSE”.
• Error messages remain, because they are caught in
the loop now.
• To repair it, we have to break the loop.
Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 7
Breaking Loops with Jumpstart
• Assign (+I3) for “Jumpstart”.
Its value will be TRUE or FALSE.

• “Change in Cash” will incorporate “Jumpstart”:

=IF(+I2;“Error”;IF(+I3;1;C8)) Change in Cash

• Whenever #Value! message appears, switch the

Jumpstart to TRUE, which will plug in a hardcode of
“1” to break the Loop. Then, formulas will start
working.

• After that, switch to FALSE again to replace the

original formula.
Excel Hack: Fix Circular Reference Errors with the Circuit Breaker
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lsppaSMuFU

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 8

Automatic Debt Paydowns

Redeem Y N Borrow
Cash>0
Revolver Revolver

Cash> Y Full
Debt Redemption

N
Partial Can formulate this with “IF” or “MIN”
Redemption
(as much as Cash)
Go back to the example

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 9

 S-Term Revolver Loan & Cash Schedule
D
S-TERM REVOLVER LOAN & CASH (Circular Reference) 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E

Beginning Cash Balance Hist. Fin. Ending Cash Balance of CF Stat. of Pro. Financials
Cash Flow Before Debt Payment From Cash Flow Statement of Proforma Financials
Min Cash. Required (-) Revenues *5/365
FCF Available for Debt Payment Sum of the above

L-Term Loans
Change in CAPEX Loan
From Statement of Cash Flow of Pro. Financials
Change in L-Term Bank Loan

S-Term Revolver Loan Redemption Previous Year’s outstanding S-Term Loan is fully paid this Year

Cash Before S-term Loan Drawdown

FCF Available + L-Term Loans + S-Term Loan Redemption
S-t Loan Drawdown If >0, no need to borrow. If <0, borrow that amount (MIN Func)
CF Before Debt Payment=
Cash From Operations
(+) Cash From Investment
(+/-) Interest Inc/Exp The Blue Row is my Circular Reference Line
(+) Change in Paid-in-Capital
Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 10
IMPORTANT!!!!

• Allow only for ONE circular reference in a sheet,

around debt or cash balances.

• Create the deliberate circular reference as the very

last step in your model build, then turn iteration on.

• This way, Excel will warn you about accidental

circular references as you build your model.

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 11

Complete S-Term Revolver Loan Section

D
(of Financing in Calculations)

2019A
2022A 2020E
2023E 2021E
2024E 2022E
2025E 2023E
2026E 2024E
2027E
4. S-Term Revolver Loan

BoP S-Term Rev. Loan

S-term Rev. Loan Draw-down S-Term Revolver Loan & Cash (Circular Reference)
S-term Revolver Loan Redemption = Beginning S-Term Rev. Loan
EoP S-Term Revolver Loan 23.799
Hist. Fin.

Interest Rate on S-Term Rev. Loan Depends on the State of the Economy

Interest Paid on S-Term Rev. Loan (-) Average S-Term Revolver Loan*Int Rate

Link EoP S-Term Revolver Loan to Balance Sheet

Link Int Paid on S-Term Revolver to P&L Statement

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 12

 Complete Cash Section
(of Financing in Calculations)

D
2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E
5. Cash

Trapped Cash as % of sales From Assumptions

Cash Balances
From Cash Flow Statement of Proforma Financials
Min Cash Required
From S-Term Revolver Loan & Cash
Excess Cash
Cash Balances – Min. Cash Required
Interest Rate on Cash Balances From Assumptions
Interest Received on Cash
(-) Average Excess Cash*Int Rate

Link Cash Balances to Balance Sheet

Link Int Received on Cash to P&L Statement

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 13

Jumpstart

D
In your model:
ü Go to Proforma Financials sheet
ü Use +E10 and +F10 to plug in your Jumpstart Control

+E10
+F10
Jumpstart FALSE
2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E Cagr
2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E Cagr
2.110.681 2.629.133 3.606.205 4.940.485 28,5%
15,2% 24,6% 37,2% 37,0%

Write Jumpstart formulas on two rows :

ü Row 352: Cash Balances of «Cash» in «Calculations» FLAG
ü Row 418: S-Term Loan Drawdown of «S-Term Revolver Loan & Cash»
in «Calculations»
Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 14
Add Scenario Summary

In the
last year

5-year
Cum W/H Inv in
total #
Add on top of: the last year
ü Assumptions
ü Calculations
ü Proforma Financials Freeze top rows up to «Date» Row
ü Ratio Analysis
Excel: Freeze Panes and View Options
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zuhsUNBeNHw&t=138s

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 15

Outline

Circular Reference

Balancing The Balance Sheet

Cover Page & Dashboard

Ratio Analysis

Remaining Bits & Pieces

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 16

Does Your B/S Balance?
• Add another row to the bottom of the Balance Sheet, taking the
difference btw Total Assets & Total Liabilities.
• Should be «ZERO» for each year.

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 17

Does Your B/S Balance?

+A10 will signal, when there is a mistake.

• Why use SUM of 5-Years?

Add a Checkpoint • Why -1<SUM <1, but not =0?

Tip: Use Conditional Formatting

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 18

Congratulations,
You DID it

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 19

Does Your B/S Balance?

Now, you are in BIIIG Trouble!

Tip: Use Conditional Formatting

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 20

Unbalanced Balance Sheet
• CFS and B/S do not match

• Signs (+/-) are switched:

ü In the P&L, are all Expenses (-) and Incomes (+)?
ü In the CFS, are the signs of Change in Assets & Liabilities
correct?

• Mislinks:
ü Are the P&L, B/S or CFS items linked properly from the
schedules of CALCULATIONS Sheet?
ü Pulling from the wrong year, ie 2021 instead of 2020

• The subtotals and totals are not calculating

properly in P&L, B/S or CFS.
Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 21
Interlink btw B/S and CFS

Remember:
ü CFS shows the change in a item from one year into the other
ü Any increase in Assets is a Use of Cash, hence represented as
negative flow in CFS and vice versa.
ü Any increase in Liabilities is a Source of Cash, hence
represented as positive flow in CFS and vice versa.

Acc. Receivables2013 = Acc. Receivables2012 - Change in Acc. Receivables2013

Acc. Payables2013 = Acc. Payables2012 + Change in Acc. Payables2013

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 22

An easy way to reconcile

• Print out the Calculations & Proforma Financials sheets of

the the model.
• Begin with Accounts Receivable line on the B/S, calculate
the cash impact of each line on the B/S
• Once you’ve made the calculations, verify that cash impact
is correctly expressed on the CFS.
• Compare the change in Fixed Assets with Cash from
Investments. Do they match?
• Make sure non-cash items (Depr & FX Transs. G/L) of P&L are
excluded from CFS calculations

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 23

An easy way to reconcile

• Verify all the subtotals and totals of P&L, B/S and CFS

• Check the links:

ü EBIT, Tax and Depreciation of CFS from P&L
ü Retained Earnings of B/S from P&L Earnings
ü Always from the right Column & Row?

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 24

Outline

Circular Reference

Balancing The Balance Sheet

Cover Page & Dashboard

Ratio Analysis

Remaining Bits & Pieces

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 25

 Cover Page Insert a Hyperlink
for each
spreadsheet to
navigate

D404 We care for YOU!

5-Year
Strategic Plan

CONTENT

1 Scenarios
2 Historical Financials
3 Assumptions
4 Calculations
by
5 Proforma Financials
............................................ 6 Ratio Analysis
Fill in the Spring 20.....
7 DCF

Name
Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 26
The Problem

FINANCING BOTTOM LINE GROWTH

2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E
USD CAPEX Loan 2023 W/house Optimization 0,40% 0,40% 0,40% 0,40% 0,00%

L-Term TL Bank Loan 0 ERP Sysytem 2025

Equity Injection Private Equity Change in Private Label Share 5,00% 5,00% 5,00% 5,00% 5,00%

MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS TOP LINE GROWTH 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E

State of Economy Steady State Marketing Budget 2,00% 1,00% 1,50% 2,25% 1,00%

New Stores Opened 20 50 100 200 300

Max # of New Stores 286 294 314 354 434

• Each time you change a scenario variable, the overall results are changing.

• But these results might be located in separate sheets.

• So you have to move back and forward between sheets to find out what’s
going on.

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 27

A Handy Tool

• Select the summary KPIs that deem most suitable to the

purpose of your analysis.
• Build your DASHBOARD on the SCENARIOS sheet.
• Now, you can efficiently analyze how each change affects your
results in no time.

DASHBOARD COVENANT BREACH!!

2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E CAGR
Revenues 1.410.965 1.831.812 2.110.681 2.629.133 3.606.205 4.940.485 28,5%
EBITDA (32.452) (9.513) 17.147 36.821 73.706 184.262 0,0%
EBITDA Margin % -2,3% -0,5% 0,8% 1,4% 2,0% 3,7%
Net Income (48.651) (26.690) (5.562) (6.539) (3.309) 80.145
Net Income Margin -3,4% -1,5% -0,3% -0,2% -0,1% 1,6%
Capital Expenditure (35.245) (46.467) (132.633) (114.149) (154.794) -483.288
Change in NWC 3.117 2.040 6.512 14.401 13.951
Marketing Expense (36.636) (21.107) (39.437) (81.140) (49.405) -227.724
Shareholders' Equity 31.974 31.284 25.721 19.182 15.874 96.019
Debt / Equity 0,3x 6,5x 8,4x 7,9x 13,0x 2,1x
Net Debt (10.920) (922) 22.875 115.661 157.162 133.380 Owners' Eq. %
Owners' Equity Value - - 126.304 214.666 492.911 1.452.853 85%
ROE N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 83,5%

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 28

Covenant Breach

Add a warning message, if D/E exceeds the maximum allowable ratio.

DASHBOARD COVENANT BREACH!!

2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E CAGR
Revenues 1.410.965 1.831.812 2.110.681 2.629.133 3.606.205 4.940.485 28,5%
EBITDA (32.452) (9.513) 17.147 36.821 73.706 184.262 0,0%
EBITDA Margin % -2,3% -0,5% 0,8% 1,4% 2,0% 3,7%
Net Income (48.651) (26.690) (5.562) (6.539) (3.309) 80.145
Net Income Margin -3,4% -1,5% -0,3% -0,2% -0,1% 1,6%
Capital Expenditure (35.245) (46.467) (132.633) (114.149) (154.794) -483.288
Change in NWC 3.117 2.040 6.512 14.401 13.951
Shareholders' Equity 31.974 31.284 25.721 19.182 15.874 96.019
Debt / Equity 0,3x 6,5x 8,4x 7,9x 13,0x 2,1x
Net Debt (10.920) (922) 22.875 115.661 157.162 133.380 Owners' Eq. %
Owners' Equity Value - - 126.304 214.666 492.911 1.452.853 85%
ROE N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 83,5%

Conditional Formatting

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Fin & Taxation 29

Going Bankrupt

TECHNICAL BANKRUPTCY

UPPS, BANKRUPT :-(( DASHBOARD Once the Equity turns into negative in
any year or multiple years, the
2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E CAGR
Revenues 1.410.965 1.831.812 2.110.681 2.629.133
company
3.606.205
is technically
4.940.485
bankrupt
28,5%
EBITDA (32.452) (9.513) 17.147 36.821 73.706 184.262 0,0%
EBITDA Margin % -2,3% -0,5% 0,8% 1,4% 2,0% 3,7%
Net Income (48.651) (31.631) (12.399) (8.848) (899) 79.692
Net Income Margin -3,4% -1,7% -0,6% -0,3% 0,0% 1,6%
Capital Expenditure (35.245) (46.467) (132.633) (114.149) (154.794) -483.288
Change in NWC 3.117 2.040 6.512 14.401 13.951
Shareholders' Equity 31.974 9.342 (3.057) (11.905) (12.804) 66.888
Debt / Equity 0,3x 8,6x N/A N/A N/A 3,4x
Net Debt (10.920) 21.019 51.653 146.748 185.839 162.511 Owners' Eq. %
Owners' Equity Value - - - - - - 100%
ROE N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Conditional Formatting

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Fin & Taxation 30

Enterprise Value

Assumptions:
ENTERPRISE VALUE (EV)
EBITDA Multiple at the end 10,0x

Calculations:
ENTERPRISE VALUE (EV)
EBITDA
EBITDA Multiple
Net Debt
Firm's Equity Value

Owners' Eq. % 100% if PE is rejected, 85% with PE money

Owners' Equity Value

What happens to EV, when:

ü EBITDA < 0
ü The company is bankrupt

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 31

Outline

Circular Reference

Balancing The Balance Sheet

Cover Page & Dashboard

Ratio Analysis

Remaining Bits & Pieces

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 32

 D
Ratio Sales & Earnings
Revenues
2022A
1.410.965
2023E
1.831.812
2024E
2.110.681
2025E
2.629.133
2026E
3.606.205
2027E
4.940.485
Cagr
28,5%

Analysis
Revenue growth 0,0% 29,8% 15,2% 24,6% 37,2% 37,0%

EBITDA (32.452) (9.513) 17.147 36.821 73.706 184.262

EBITDA Margin -2,3% -0,5% 0,8% 1,4% 2,0% 3,7%

EBIT (49.625) (26.973) (5.435) 1.528 20.732 113.676

EBIT margin -2,3% -1,5% -0,3% 0,1% 0,6% 2,3%

Net Income (48.651) (26.690) (5.562) (6.539) (3.309) 80.145

Net Income Margin -2,3% -1,5% -0,3% -0,2% -0,1% 1,6%

Select the ratios of CAPEX 35.245 46.467 132.633 114.149 154.794

your choice. Capex / sales

Capex / depreciation
1,92%
2,02x
2,20%
2,06x
5,04%
3,76x
3,17%
2,15x
3,13%
2,19x

Cash Cycle (days) (21) (19) (16) (14) (12)

Opex over Sales 17,1% 15,7% 15,7% 15,7% 14,2%

Leverage Ratios 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E

Debt / Equity 0,3x 6,5x 8,4x 7,9x 13,0x 2,1x
Total Debt / Total Assets 0,0x 0,4x 0,4x 0,2x 0,3x 0,2x
Total Debt / EBITDA -0,3x -21,3x 12,6x 4,1x 2,8x 1,1x
Total Net Debt / EBITDA 0,3x 0,1x 1,3x 3,1x 2,1x 0,7x

Coverage Ratios 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E

EBITDA / Interest Expense -24,1x -2,2x 2,3x 3,9x 3,1x 5,0x

Liquidity Ratios 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E

Current Ratio 0,7x 1,4x 1,3x 0,8x 0,6x 0,7x
Acid-Test Ratio 0,3x 0,9x 0,8x 0,3x 0,2x 0,3x
Cash Ratio 0,1x 0,7x 0,6x 0,1x 0,1x 0,1x

Profitability Ratio 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E

ROE N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 83,5%

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 33

Outline

Circular Reference

Balancing The Balance Sheet

Cover Page & Dashboard

Ratio Analysis

Remaining Bits & Pieces

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 34

 Adding Graphs
USD CAPEX Loan $10.000 Share of Private Label 15%
Equity Injection ₺0 W/house Optimization ₺0
ERP Sysytem ₺4.000

# of Stores Opened 0 Dom. GDP Growth Steady State

# of Warehouses Opened 0

Jumpstart FALSE

Add the Graphs of

BS Check OK

(in TL 000) 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E Cagr

Profit & Loss Statement 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E Cagr
Revenues 952.283 1.210.043 1.375.063 1.560.141 1.771.884 2.009.301 16,1% Revenues EBITDA
20.000 1,0%

KPIs or Ratios to
Growth 27,1% 13,6% 13,5% 13,6% 13,4% 2.500.000 30%
0,5%
2.000.000 25% 10.000
Cost of Goods Sold (804.679) (1.013.895) (1.153.266) (1.306.618) (1.482.713) (1.679.977) 15,9% 0,0%
20%
1.500.000 0 -0,5%
Gross Profit 147.604 196.148 221.798 253.523 289.171 329.324 17,4%

Proforma
15% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 -1,0%
Gross Margin % 15,5% 16,2% 16,1% 16,3% 16,3% 16,4%
1.000.000 -10.000
10% -1,5%
Operating Expenses (171.411) (215.180) (236.417) (259.749) (285.774) (314.448) 12,9% -2,0%
500.000 5% -20.000
-2,5%
EBITDA (23.807) (19.032) (14.619) (6.226) 3.398 14.877 N/A 0 0%

Financials & Ratio

EBITDA Margin % -2,5% -1,6% -1,1% -0,4% 0,2% 0,7%
-30.000 -3,0%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Revenue Growth Dom. Margin
Depreciation & Amortization (15.030) (15.723) (22.762) (25.775) (28.999) (32.449)

EBIT (38.838) (34.755) (37.381) (32.002) (25.602) (17.573) N/A

Financial Inc/Exp Net Income

Analysis that deem

EBIT Margin % -4,1% -2,9% -2,7% -2,1% -1,4% -0,9%
0 0,0%
Financial Income (Expenses) (5.140) (8.875) (11.852) (16.563) (25.901) (37.494) 0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 -0,5%
Interest Income 1.565 287 287 0 0 0 #REF!
-5.000 -10.000 -1,0%
Interest Expense (6.705) (9.162) (12.139) (16.563) (25.901) (37.494)
-1,5%

most suitable.
USD CAPEX Loan 0 0 (1.202) (2.573) (2.065) (736) -10.000 -20.000
TL L-Term Bank Loan 0 (5.600) (9.333) (5.600) (1.867) 0 -2,0%
TL S-Term Bank Loan (6.705) (3.562) (1.604) (8.390) (21.969) (36.757) -15.000 -30.000 -2,5%
-3,0%
-20.000 -40.000
Other Income / (Expenses) 70 (1.443) (3.331) (2.647) (474) -3,5%
FX Translation Gain 70 804 1.478 1.212 902 -25.000 -4,0%
-50.000
FX Translation Loss 0 (2.247) (4.809) (3.859) (1.376) -4,5%
-30.000
Balance Sheet 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E Cagr -60.000 -5,0%
Pretax Income (43.977) (43.560)
Cash & Cash Equivalents (50.676) (51.896)
13.045 (54.149)
21.794 (55.541)
18.836 -35.000
21.372 24.272 27.525 Working Capital Total Liabilities
Pretax Margin % -4,6% -3,6% -3,7% -3,3% -3,1% -2,8% 800.000
Accounts Receivables 20.872 23.206 26.371 29.921 33.981 38.535 Ne t I ncome Ne t I ncome Margin
-40.000 0
Inventories 68.343 90.487 103.004 116.790 132.632 150.392 600.000
Corporate Taxes Other0 Current Assets
0 0 0
14.284 0
18.151 0
20.626 23.402 26.578 30.140 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Tax Loss Carry Forward (71.082) (114.642)
Total Current Assets (165.318) (190.109)
116.544 (244.257)
153.638 (299.798)
168.838 191.485 217.464 246.591 16,2% -20.000 400.000
Net Income (43.977) (43.560) (50.676) (51.896) (54.149) (55.541)
Property, Plant & Equipment 105.213 108.446 120.102 120.067 118.506 115.307 -40.000
% of sales -4,6% -3,6% -3,7% -3,3% -3,1% -2,8% 200.000
Intangibles 1.114 954 13.954 11.130 7.842 4.039
Other Non-Current Assets 1.428 1.815 2.063 2.340 2.658 3.014 -60.000 0
Total Non-Current Assets 107.755 111.214 136.119 133.537 129.006 122.360 2,6% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
-80.000 -200.000
Total Assets 224.299 264.852 304.957 325.022 346.470 368.951 10,5%
-400.000
-100.000
Short Term Financial Loan 41.907 0 18.865 79.846 178.619 253.819
Accounts Payables 143.299 181.473 206.134 233.222 264.288 299.036 -120.000
Eq uity Cur Liab Non Cur. Liab
Other Current Liabilities 16.094 20.278 23.065 26.132 29.654 33.600
Total Current Liabilities 201.300 201.751 248.065 339.200 472.561 586.454 23,8%
ROE Debt/Equity Ratio
Long Term Financial Loans 80.000 122.027 100.169 39.324 0 0,0% 6,0
TL L-T Bank Loan 80.000 53.333 26.667 0 0 7 8 9 0 1 2 5,0
USD CAPEX Loan 0 68.694 73.503 39.324 0 -100,0% 201 201 201 202 202 202
4,0
Other Non Current Liabilities 14.082 17.743 20.182 22.866 25.947 29.400 3,0
-200,0%
Total Non Current Liabilities 14.082 97.743 142.209 123.035 65.271 29.400
2,0
-300,0%
1,0
Paid-in-Capital 80.000 80.000 80.000 80.000 80.000 80.000
-400,0% 0,0
Retained Earnings (71.082) (114.642) (165.318) (217.214) (271.362) (326.903)
Financial Modeling_Master_2018_v4.xls -1,0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Shareholders' Equity 8.918 (34.642) (85.318)Proforma Financials
(137.213) (191.362) (246.903) -294,3% -500,0%
1
-2,0
-600,0% -3,0
Total Liabilities 224.299 264.852 304.957 325.022 346.470 368.951 10,5%
0 0 0 0 0 0
Cash Flow Statement 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E Cagr
EBIT (38.838) (34.755) (37.381) (32.002) (25.602) (17.573) Net Change in Cash Cash Balances
(+) Depreciation & Amortization 15.030 15.723 22.762 25.775 28.999 32.449 10.000 30.000
(-) Corporate Tax 0 0 0 0 0
8.000
(-/+) Change in Net Working Capital 14.014 9.291 10.043 11.509 12.817 25.000
Accounts Receivables (2.334) (3.165) (3.549) (4.061) (4.553) 6.000
Inventories (22.144) (12.517) (13.786) (15.842) (17.761) 20.000
Other Current Assets (3.866) (2.475) (2.776) (3.176) (3.561) 4.000
Account Payables 38.174 24.661 27.088 31.066 34.747 15.000
Other Current Liabilities 4.184 2.787 3.067 3.522 3.945 2.000
Other Non-Current Assets (387) (248) (278) (318) (356) 10.000
0
Other Non-Current Liabilities 3.661 2.439 2.684 3.082 3.452
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Cash From Operations (1.744) (3.137) 6.223 17.671 30.790 -2.000 5.000

Capital Expenditure (18.725) (46.615) (21.438) (22.939) (24.545) -4.000 0

Series1
Cash From Investments (18.725) (46.615) (21.438) (22.939) (24.545) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Net Change in CAPEX Loan 0 66.447 0 (38.038) (40.700)

Net Change in L-Term Bank Loan 80.000 (26.667) (26.667) (26.667) 0
Net Change in S-Term Revolver Loan (41.907) 18.865 60.980 98.773 75.201
Interest Income / expense (8.875) (11.852) (16.563) (25.901) (37.494)
Change in Paid-in-Capital 0 0 0 0 0
Cash From Financing 29.218 46.794 17.751 8.168 (2.993)

Net Change in Cash 8.749 (2.958) 2.535 2.901 3.252

Beginning Cash Balance 13.045 21.794 18.836 21.372 24.272

Ending Cash Balance 13.045 21.794 18.836 21.372 24.272 27.525

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 35

Financial Modeling_Master_2018_v4.xls Proforma Financials 2
 Protecting Your Masterpiece

• Are you going to share

it with strangers?
• Over my dead body!!!
• If you have to: Protect
your model from curios
but incompetent users
• Once protected, third
parties can read but
cannot write on the
spreadsheet.

Advanced Excel - Protecting a Sheet - Excel Tutorial

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piIWTp3qncw

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 36

Protecting Your Masterpiece
What happens when you
protect the “SCENARIOS”
worksheet?

Format the whole

worksheet so that
Protection will be turned
to “Locked” for all cells.

Then, switch Protection

Now, the user will be able to off from each individual
make changes in those cells, cell of Strategy Entries.
despite the protection on the
remaining of the
“SCENARIOS” worksheet!
Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 37
 Hide/Unhide Sheets
• Top management guys
are usually shallow
people; just interested
in the macro picture,
but not in details.
• Hence, Assumptions &
Calculations Sheets
would not be of
interest to them.
• The last year of
Historical Financials is
already incorporated
into Proforma
Financials.
• So hide them!

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 38

 Setting Print Area

• Set the Print Area of the Sheet

• Control from Print Preview

how it looks
• Make necessary adjustments

• Repeat this for every sheet

• Save the file before exiting

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 39

 Getting a PDF of the Workbook

Make sure that:

ü all the unnecessary Sheets
are hidden
ü Print areas are set and
adjusted for each sheet
ü Orientation: Landscape
ü On Print: «Entire
Workbook» is selected
ü At left-hand side bottom,
select «Save as PDF» option
ü And follow instructions

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 40

One Final Reminder

Congratulations, now you have a neat

& clean PDF copy of your model to
circulate.

PLEASE
Let someone else go through it
for sanity check before circulating

Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 41

References for Excel Tools Used
CIRCULAR REFERENCE
Excel 2010 Tutorial Circular Reference Warning & Enabling Iterative Calculations
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BPuDV3--Wkg

CIRCUIT BREAKER
Excel Hack: Fix Circular Reference Errors with the Circuit Breaker
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lsppaSMuFU

FREEZING PANES
Excel: Freeze Panes and View Options
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zuhsUNBeNHw&t=138s

WHAT-IF ANALYSIS
Create a Two Variable Data Table Excel 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcmEsJwq1ik

PROTECTING THE SPREADSHEET

Advanced Excel - Protecting a Sheet - Excel Tutorial
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piIWTp3qncw
Dr. Ahmet Erelçin Finalizing the Model 42