Or Final Dec 22,2019

DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT
MBA PROGRAM
QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS FOR DECISION MAKING

ASSIGNMENT ON
GAME THEORY, QUEUENING AND SIMULATION
SUBMITTED TO DR. MENGSTU G.
Prepared By: ID Number
Worash Engidaw SGSE/237/12
DECEMBER 2019
DESSIE, ETHIOPIA
Worash22@gmail.com +251-912356094
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CONTENTS PAGE
I. CHAPTER I: GAME THEORY ....................................................................................1
1.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 1

1.2 What is Game theory................................................................................................. 2
1.3 There are 5 main Elements under game theory ......................................................... 3
1.4 Types of Game .......................................................................................................... 3
1.5 Characteristics or properties of a game ..................................................................... 4
1.5.1 Types of courcse of action or stratagy ...................................................................... 4
1.4 Basic elements of game theroy ................................................................................. 4
1.4.1 Remembe & Note the followings .............................................................................. 5
1.5 Steps in solving the game .......................................................................................... 6
II. CHAPTER II QUEUENING ..........................................................................................7
2.1 An Introduction to Queuning .................................................................................... 7
2.2 Basic Structure of Queuing Models .......................................................................... 8
2.2.1 Queuning System ...................................................................................................... 8
2.2.2 Input sources (Calling population) ............................................................................ 8
2.3 Queuing system ........................................................................................................ 9
2.3.1 Queuing or Waiting Line Analysis .......................................................................... 9
2.4 Queuing system cost ............................................................................................... 10
2.5 Characteristics of a Queuing System ...................................................................... 10
2.5.1 Arrival Characteristics ........................................................................................... 10
2.5.1.1 Poisson distribution ................................................................................................ 10
2.5.2 Queuing Characteristics ......................................................................................... 11
2.5.3 Service facilities Characteristics ............................................................................ 11
III. CHAPTER III: SIMULATION……………………………………………………….…………….……...12
3.1 An Introduction to Simulation ............................................................................... 12
3.2 Advantages of Simulation ....................................................................................... 12
3.3 Dis Advantages of Simulation ................................................................................ 13
3.4 Models .................................................................................................................... 14
3.5 Steps in Simulations…………………………………………………………… 15
3.5.1 Problem formulation ............................................................................................. 16
3.5.2 Model building ........................................................................................................ 16
3.5.3 Input Modeling ........................................................................................................ 17
3.5.4 Verification and validation ..................................................................................... 18
3.5.5 Output analysis …………………………………………………………… 19
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IV. CHAPTER IV: PRACTICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE ORGANIZATIONS ...........................20
4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 20

4.2 Commercial bank of Ethiopia ................................................................................. 21
4.2.1 Vision, Mission and value of Commercial Bank of Ethiopia ................................. 21
4.2.2 History of Commercial Bank of Ethiopia ............................................................... 21
4.2.3 Types and features of deposit products and services .............................................. 23
4.3.4 Queuing process in the bank industry .................................................................... 23
4.3.5 Queuing process in Commercial Bank of Ethiopia ................................................ 26
4.3 Carvico Ethiopia...................................................................................................... 27
4.3.1 Vision, Mission and value of Carvico Ethiopia ……...……………...…….……...27
4.3.2 History of Carvico .................................................................................................. 28

4.3.3 Types of textile manufacturing process .................................................................. 29
4.3.4 Real Time Automation ............................................................................................ 31
4.3.5 Simulation in Carvico Ethiopia .............................................................................. 32
V. CHAPTER V: CONCLUSTION ............................................................ 34
5.1 Conclustion ............................................................................................................. 35
VI. REFFERENCES ..........................................................................................................36
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CHAPTER ONE
1. GAME THEORY
1.1 INTRODUCTION
We, humans, cannot survive without interacting with other humans, and ironically, it
sometimes seems that we have survived despite those interactions. Production and
exchange require cooperation between individuals at some level but the same interactions
may also lead to disastrous confrontations. Human history is as much a history of fights
and wars as it is a history of successful cooperation. Many human interactions carry the
potentials of cooperation and harmony as well as conflict and disaster. Examples are
abounding relationships among couples, siblings, countries, management and labor unions,
neighbors, students and professors, and so on.
One can argue that the increasingly complex technologies, institutions, and cultural norms
that have existed in human societies have been there in order to facilitate and regulate these
interactions. For example, internet technology greatly facilitates buyer-seller transactions,
but also complicates them further by increasing opportunities for cheating and fraud.
Workers and managers have usually opposing interests when it comes to wages and
working conditions, and labor unions as well as labor law provide channels and rules
through which any potential conflict between them can be addressed. Similarly, several
cultural and religious norms, such as altruism or reciprocity, bring some order to
potentially dangerous interactions between individuals. All these norms and institutions
constantly evolve as the nature of the underlying interactions keep changing. In this sense,
understanding human behavior in its social and institutional context requires a proper
understanding of human interaction.
Economics, sociology, psychology, and political science are all devoted to studying human
behavior in different realms of social life. However, in many instances they treat
individuals in isolation, for convenience if not for anything else. In other words, they
assume that to understand one individual‘s behavior it is safe to assume that her behavior
does not have significant effect on other individuals. In some cases, and depending upon
the question one is asking, this assumption may be warranted.
The subject matter of game theory is exactly those interactions within a group of
individuals (or governments, firms, etc.) where the actions of each individual have an
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effect on the outcome that is of interest to all. Yet, this is not enough for a situation to be a
proper subject of game theory: the way individuals act has to be strategic, i.e., they should
be aware of the fact that their actions affect others. The fact that my actions have an effect
on the outcome does not necessitate strategic behavior, if I am not aware of that fact.
Therefore, we say that game theory studies strategic interaction within a group of
individuals. By strategic interaction, we mean that individuals know that their actions will
have an effect on the outcome and act accordingly Game:
1.2 WHAT IS GAME THEORY?

Game theory is a systematic study of strategic interactions among rational individuals.
Its limitations aside, game theory has been fruitfully applied to many situations in the
realm of economics, political science, biology, law, etc. Among those applications are firm
competition in oligopolistic markets, competition between political parties, auctions,
bargaining, and repeated interaction between firms. Game theory is the formal study of
conflict and cooperation. Game theoretic concepts apply whenever the actions of several
agents are interdependent. These agents may be individuals, groups, firms, or any
combination of these. The concepts of game theory provide a language to formulate
structure, analyze, and understand strategic scenarios. Game theory is the formal study of
decision-making where several players must make choices that potentially affect the
interests of the other player Game: A game is a formal description of a strategic situation.
In other words, game is defined as a selection of one or a combination of actions between
two or more persons involving conflictive objectives by each person involving in receipt of
some benefit or satisfaction or suffers loss (negative benefit). Player: An individual or a
firm or a group of firms involved in a competitive situation.
Formally speaking, we need exactly three objects to dine a game in strategic form.
Deﬁnition: A strategic form game is composed of

➥ Set of players: N
➥ A set of actions: Ai for each player i
➥ A payoff function: UI: A → R for each player i
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1.3 There are five main elements under the game theory
1) Players: decision makers or competitors
2) Rules: allowable actions and instructions
3) Strategies: actions or moves that a player would play
4) .Payoff: a final return or result from the game
5) Information structure: what players know at each point in the game.
There are two main form of presenting or describing a game a. Strategic/normal form:
provides a reduced summary of a game with a game matrix form b. Extensive form:
provides an extended description of a game with a game tree
1.4 Types of Games There are various types of games on different

basis
1.4.1 On the basis of cooperation
1.2.1.1 Cooperative game: players may negotiate or bind contracts to share decisions,
information and payoffs. So there will be a common knowledge among the
players.
1.2.1.2 Non- cooperative game: there is no any negotiation or contract between players
so that each player takes actions independently.
1.4.2 On the basis of ultimate result or payoff of a game
1.4.2.1 Zero-sum game: the payoffs of the players are just opposite. The payoff of one
player is just the negative of the payoff to other player so that the total sum of
the game is zero. e.g. matching pennies-football play.
1.4.2.2 Variable-sum game: all of the players are benefited from the game. e.g.,
prisoner‘s dilemma.
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1.5 CHARACTERISTICS OR PROPERTIES OF A GAME

To classify the games, we must know the properties of the game. They are:
 Number of persons or groups who are involved in playing the game
 Number of strategies or courses of action each player or group have (they may
be finite or infinite)
1.5.1 Type of course of action or strategy
 How much information about the past activities of other player is available to the
players?
 It may be complete or partly or may be no information available.
 The payoff may be such that the gains of some players may or may not be the direct
losses of other players.
The players are independent in decision-making and they make the decision rationally.
1.6 BASIC ELEMENTS OF GAME THEROY

Let us consider a game by name Two-finger more, where two players (persons) namely A
and B play the game. A is the winner and B is the loser. The matrix shown below is the
matrix of A, the winner. The elements of the matrix show the gains of A. Any positive
element in the matrix shows the gain of A and the negative element in the matrix show the
loss (negative gain) of A.
Theory of Games or Competitive Strategies
(One finger) (Two fin
I B II
(One finger) I 2 -2
A -2 2
(Two fingers II
The game is as follows: Both the players A and B sit at a table and simultaneously raise
their hand with one or two fingers open. In case the fingers shown by both the players is
same, then A will gain Rs.2/-. In case the number of fingers shown is different (i.e. A
shows one finger and B shows two fingers or vice versa) then A has to give B Rs. 2/- i.e. A
is losing Rs.2/-. In the above matrix, strategy I refer to finger one and strategy II refers to
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two fingers. The above given matrix is the pay of matrix of A. The negative entries in the
matrix denote the payments from A to B. The pay of matrix of B is the negative version of
A‘s pay of matrix; because in two person zeros sum game the gains of one player are the
losses of the other player. Always we have to write the matrix of the winner, who is
represented on the left side of the matrix. The winner is the maximizing player, who wants
to maximize his minimum gains. The loser is the minimizing player, who wants to
minimize his maximum losses.
1.6.1 Remember & Note the following
 The numbers within the payoff matrix represent the outcome or the payoffs of the
different plays or strategies of the game. The payoffs are stated in terms of a
measure of effectiveness such as money, percent of market share or utility. By
convention, in a 2-person, zero-sum game, the positive numbers denote a gain to
the row or maximizing player or winner, and loss to the column or minimizing
player or loser. It is assumed that both players know the payoff matrix.
 A strategy is a course of action or a complete plan. It is assumed that a strategy
cannot be upset by competitors or nature (chance). Each player may have any
number of strategies. There is no pressure that both players must have same number
of strategies.
 Rules of game describe the framework within which player choose their strategies.
An assumption made here that player must choose their strategies simultaneously
and that the game is repetitive.
 A strategy is said to be dominant if each payoff in the strategy is superior to each
corresponding pay off of alternative strategy. For example, let us consider A
(winner) has three strategies. The payoffs of first strategy are 2, 1, 6 and that of
second strategy are -1, -2 and 3. The second strategy's outcomes are inferior to that
of first strategy. Hence first strategy dominates or superior to that of second
strategy. Similarly let us assume B (loser) has two strategies. The outcomes of first
strategy 2, -1 and that of second strategy is 1 and -2. The payoffs of second strategy
is better than that of first strategy, hence second strategy is superior and dominates
the first strategy. The rule of dominance is used to reduce the size of the given
matrix.
 The rule of game refers to the expected outcome per play when both players follow
their best or optimal strategies. A game is known as fair game if its value is zero,
and unfair if its value is nonzero.
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 An Optimal strategy refers to the course of action, or complete plan that leaves a
player in the most preferred position regardless of the actions of his competitors.
The meaning of the most preferred position is that any deviation from the optimal
strategy, or plan, would result in decreased payoff.
 The purpose of the game model is to identify the optimal strategy for each player.
The conditions said in serial number 1 to 3 above, the practical value of game
theory is rather limited. However the idea of decision-making under conditions of
conflict (or cooperation) is at the core of managerial decision. Hence the concepts
involved in game theory are very important for the following reasons. * It develops
a framework for analyzing decision making in competitive (and sometimes in
cooperative) situations. Such a framework is not available through any other
analytical technique. • It describes a systematic quantitative method (in two-person
zero-sum games) that enables the competitors to select rational strategies for the
attainment of their goals. • It describes and explains various phenomena in
conflicting situations, such as bargaining and the formation of coalitions.
1.7 STEPS IN SOLVING THE GAME

1. Step 1. Find the saddle point if the game has saddle point the game has solved
.write the optimal strategy and value of the game Theory of Games or Competitive
Strategies
2. Step 2. If no saddle point, try to reduce the size of the matrix given (m × n) to: (a) 2
× 2 matrix, which has formula for optimal strategies and the value of the game. Use
the formula to get the answer. (b) 3 × 2 or 2 × 3 matrix and use Sub game method
to get the answer. (The sub games are once again 2 × 2 games). (c) To m × 2 or 2 ×
n matrix and use graphical method to get solution. Graphical solution will give us
way to 2 × 2 matrix.
3. Step 3. Use algebraic method to get the solution.
4. Step 4. Use Linear-programming approach to get the solution. Use simplex method
to get solution (Duality principle in Linear Programming is used).
5. Step 5. Use Iteration method or approximate method to get the solution.
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CHAPTER TWO: QUEUENING

2.1 AN INTRODUCTION TO QUEUING
It starts with the mathematical modelling of the arrival process (input) of customers to the
system. It is shown that the arrival process can be described mathematically either by the
number of arrival customers in a fixed time interval, or by the inter arrival time between
two consecutive arrivals. In the analysis of queuing systems, the book emphasizes the
importance of exponential service time of customers. With this assumption of exponential
service time, the analysis can be simplified by using the birth and death process as a model.
Many queuing systems can then be analysed by choosing the proper arrival rate and service
rate.
And also Queuing is an aspect of modern life that we encounter at every step in our daily
activities. Whether it happens at the checkout counter in the supermarket or in accessing
the Internet, the basic phenomenon of queuing arises whenever a shared facility needs to
be accessed for service by a ]arge number of jobs or customers. The study of queuing is
important as it provides both a theoretical background to the kind of service that we may
expect from such a facility and the way in which the facility itself may be designed to
provide some specified grade of service to its customers.
 Queues (waiting line) are a part of everyday life.
 Providing too much service involves excessive costs. And not providing enough
service capacity causes the waiting line to become excessively long.
 The ultimate goal is to achieve an economic balance between the cost of service
and the cost associated with the waiting for that service.
 Queuing theory is the study of waiting in all these various guises.
Prototype Example
o System Customer/Population Server
o reception desk people receptionist
o Garage cars mechanics
o warehouse pallets crane
o Computer jobs CPU, discs or tapes
o Telephone calls exchange
Typical examples with ‘infinite’ populations are
 1 people being served at an ATM,
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 1 cars served (serviced) in a garage,
 1 printer jobs at a local network, requests to a web server
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2.2 BASIC STRUCTURE OF QUEUING MODELS
2.2.1 QUEUEING SYSTEM

INPUT
SOURCE CUSTOMER
QUEUE SERVICE
Queue Discipline SERVED
MECHANISM
CUSTOMERS
2.2.2 Input Source (Calling Population)

 One characteristic of the input source is its size. The size is the total Number of
customers. The size may be infinite (default one) or finite.
 When will each one arrive? Associate with a distribution—usually, Poisson
distribution (the number of customers generated until any specific time) or
Exponential distribution (inter arrival time)
 A customer may be balking, who refuses to enter the system and is lost if the queue
is too long.
2.2.2.1 Queue
 The queue is where customers wait before being served.
 The maximum permissible number of customers that it can contain characterizes a
queue. Queue may be infinite (default one) or finite.
2.2.2.2 Queue Discipline
 Refers to the order in which members of the queue are selected for service
 First-come-first-serve is normally used.
2.2.2.3 An Elementary Queuing Process
 A single waiting line forms in the front of a single service facility, within
which are stationed one or more servers. One of the servers services each
customer, perhaps after some waiting in the queue.
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2.3 QUEUING SYSTEM
Queue C
S SERVICE
CCCCCCCCCCC C S FACILITY
C S
Served customers C S
 The prototype example is of this type.

 We usually label a queuing model as
3 The first spot is for distribution of inter arrival times.
4 The second spot is for distribution of service times.
5 The third one is for number of servers.
 M= exponential distribution (Markovian), which is the most widely used.
 D= degenerate distribution (constant time).
 Ek= Erlang distribution.
 G= general distribution (any arbitrary distribution allowed)
2.3.1 Queuing or Waiting Line Analysis
 Queues (waiting lines) affect people everyday

 A primary goal is finding the best level of service
 Analytical modeling (using formulas) can be used for many queues
 For more complex situations, computer simulation is needed
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2.4 QUEUING SYSTEM COSTS

1. Cost of providing service
2. Cost of not providing service (waiting time)
2.5 CHARACTERISTICS OF A QUEUING SYSTEM

The queuing system is determined by:
 Arrival characteristics
 Queue characteristics
 Service facility characteristics
2.5.1 Arrival Characteristics
 Size of the arrival population – either infinite or limited
Arrival distribution:
 Either fixed or random
 Either measured by time between consecutive arrivals, or arrival
rate
 The Poisson distribution is often used for random arrivals
2.5.1.1 Poisson distribution

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 Average arrival rate is known

 Average arrival rate is constant for some number of time periods
 Number of arrivals in each time period is independent
 As the time interval approaches 0, the average number of arrivals
approaches
2.5.2 Queue Characteristics

 Queue length (max possible queue length) – either limited or unlimited
 Service discipline – usually FIFO (First In First Out)
 SIRO(service in random order)
 SPT(shortest processing time first)
 PR(service according to priority)
2.5.3 Service Facility Characteristics
1. Configuration of service facility
• Number of servers (or channels)
• Number of phases (or service stops)
2. Service distribution
• The time it takes to serve 1 arrival
• Can be fixed or random
• Exponential distribution is often use
2.5.3.1 symbols and notations
The following symbols and notations will be used in connection with the queuing systems:
N = number of customers in the system, both waiting and in service.
Λ = average number of customers arriving per unit of time.
µ = average number of customer being served per unit of time.
Λ / µ = Ρ = traffic intensity.
C = number of parallel service channels (servers).
E(n) = average number of customers in the system. Both waiting and in service.
E(m) = average number of customers waiting in the queue.
E(v) = average waiting time of a customer in the system, both waiting and in service.
E(w) = average waiting time of a customer in the queue.
Pn(t) = Probability that there are n customers in the system at any time t, both waiting and
in service.
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Pn = time independent Probability that there are n customers in the system at any time, both
waiting and in service.
CHAPTER THREE
SIMULATION
3.1 AN INTRODUCTION TO SIMULATION
Simulation enables the study of, and experimentation with, the interactions of a complex
system (or a subsystem thereof). Informational, organizational, and environmental changes
can be simulated and the changes to the model‘s behavior can be observed. Knowledge
gained by studying the model can be of great value, and may suggest improvement to the
system under investigation. Changing simulation inputs can help understanding how
certain components of the system interact. Simulation is, among others, used to experiment
with new designs or policies prior to implementation, and may save huge amounts of
money. Simulations are also used to verify analytical solutions.
According to the online version of the Encyclopedia Britannica, ‘a [computer]

simulationuses a mathematical description, or model, of a real system in the form of a
computer program. This model is composed of equations that duplicate the functional
relationships within the real system. Following Pegden, Shannon, and Sadowski (1995) we
list some of the advantages and Disadvantages of simulations:
3.2 ADVANTAGES OF SIMULATION

 New policies, operating procedures, decision rules, information flows,
organizational procedures, etc. can be tested without disrupting ongoing
operations of the real systems.
 New hardware designs, physical layouts, transportations systems, etc. can be
tested without committing resources.
 Hypothesis about how and why certain phenomena occur can be tested for
feasibility.
 Time can be compressed or expanded for a speed up or slowdown of phenomena
under investigation.
 Insight can be obtained about the interaction of parameters.
 Insight can be obtained about the importance of variables.
 Bottleneck analysis can be performed.
 A simulation can help in understanding how a system works, opposed to how
Individuals think the system works.
 Questions like ‘what if‘ can be answered.
In addition, concise replications of simulation runs are possible which is sometimes
important at early stages of a simulation project. Finally, people who are observed do
often behave differently compared to times when they are not observed.
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3.3 DISADVANTAGES IN USING SIMULATIONS:
 Model building requires special training, and designing complex simulations is

anart form. In practice, two models designed by different competent people will
usually differ considerably, although there will be similarities.
 Simulation results may be difficult to interpret.
 Simulation modeling and analysis can be time consuming and expensive.
 Simulation is sometimes used where analytical models are available and even
preferable.
There are further limitations to those listed by Pegden, Shannon, and Sadowski
(1995).Simulation is an experimental problem solving technique. As said before, when
available analytical (or ‘close‘) solutions should be preferred since they are more accurate.
To putthis last statement differently, solutions found by simulations often tend to be
suboptimal.
The solution may be the best found after running several simulations with different
parameters, but this is in general no guarantee that the solution is indeed the best available
(which can usually only be proven using analytical methods). Simulation also comes with a
price tag. Developing a good simulation is a complex task usually performed by highly
skilled people. In addition, substantial computing power may be required to run a large
simulation process. None of this comes for free. In fact, even finding the right people to
develop the simulation can be difficult, since those people need next to solid statistical and
programming skills also deep insight into the problem or environment for which the
simulation is to be developed. Finally, due to the lack of analytical methods it is often
difficult to detect or recognize errors within the design or implementation of simulations.
The following are a couple of potential applications of simulation related to computer

science, information technology, and electrical engineering (in the broadest sense):
 Material handling system design for semiconductor manufacturing
 Assembly operations
 Distributed models for computer integrated manufacturing
 Inventory cost model for ‗just-in-time‘ production
 Heterogeneous networks
 Evaluating large-scale computer system performance
 Client/server system architecture
The list above suggests the following guidelines when to use simulations and models:
real systems may not (yet) exist, may be expensive, time consuming to create, or
hazardous;
experimentation with the real system may be expensive, dangerous, or likely to
cause serious disruption;
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there may be the need to study past or future behavior of the system, for example in
slow motion;
analytical modeling of the system may be impossible;
even if analytical modeling is possible there may not be a simple or practical
solution available;
validation of the model and the results is possible;
models can be tuned at any desired accuracy;
Only incomplete information about the real system is available.
.
3.4 MODELS
A model is any simplified representation of an object or a system. Models are used for
analyzing, understanding, or explaining an object or a system. S.E. Elnaghraby (TheRole
of Modeling in I.E. design, J. Industrial Engineering 1968) defines the role and purpose of
models as follows: Models are
 an aid of thought;
 an aid to communication;
 a purpose of training and instruction;
 a tool of prediction;
 An aid to experimentation.
Models can be classified according to their nature, which can be physical,
symbolic(mathematical, numerical), or procedural (simulations). Physical models often
have high costs. Symbolic models, though often cheap, are difficult to communicate to
people with less mathematical training. Procedural models offer a good balance between
costs and use since they are easy to communicate.
Models can be further classified according to various characteristics. The following are
only some characteristics often mentioned in the literature:
o static versus dynamic;
o aggregate versus detailed;
o computer versus human;
o continuous versus discrete;
o Deterministic versus stochastic.
Most mathematical models contain certain parameters that describe how the model works
or what the input or output of the model is. We distinguish between exogenous and
endogenous parameters (or variables). Exogenous parameters represent external
parameters and may be seen as input parameters. An example is parameters in the input
probability distribution. Endogenous parameters of a model are those that are predicted by
the model, i.e., the status or output variables.
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3.5 STEPS IN SIMULATIONS
Designing a simulation consists at least of the following steps:

 Setting objectives/Overall design
 Problem formulation
 Setting objectives and overall project plan
 Model building
 Model conceptualizations
 Data collection (for input)
 Model translation
 Verification of the (computer) model
 Validation (accurate description of the real world)
 Running the model
 Experimental design
 Production runs and analysis
 Documentation and reporting
The last steps are also often summarized as strategic planning, and include
experimentation, interpretation of the results and the final implementation of the findings.
To recognize if simulation is the correct approach to solving a particular problem, four

items should be evaluated before deciding to conduct the study:
1. Type of Problem
2. Availability of Resources
3. Costs
4. Availability of Data
Type of Problem: If a problem can be solved by common sense or analytically, the use of
simulation is unnecessary. Additionally, using algorithms and mathematical equations may
be faster and less expensive than simulating. Also, if the problem can be solved by
performing direct experiments on the system to be evaluated, then conducting direct
experiments may be more desirable than simulating.
Availability of Resources: People and time are the determining resources for conducting a
simulation study. An experienced analyst is the most important resource since such a
person has the ability and experience to determine both the model's appropriate level of
detail and how to verify and validate the model. Without a trained simulator, the wrong
model may be developed which produces unreliable results. Additionally, the allocation of
time should not be so limited so as to force the simulator to take shortcuts in designing the
model. The schedule should allow enough time for the implementation of any necessary
changes and for verification and validation to take place if the results are to be meaningful.
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Costs: Cost considerations should be given for each step in the simulation process,
purchasing simulation software if not already available, and computer resources.
Obviously if these costs exceed the potential savings in altering the current system, then
simulation should not be pursued.
Availability of Data: The necessary data should be identified and located, and if the data
does not exist, then the data should be collectible. If the data does not exist and cannot be
collected, then continuing with the simulation study will eventually yield unreliable and
useless results. The simulation output cannot be compared to the real system's
performance, which is vital for verifying and validating the model.
3.5.1 Problem Formulation
The problem formulation is maybe the hardest part in designing a simulation. Typical
obstacles are the following:
 The problem formulation given to the engineer is often vague. In many cases
thesis just the statement that there seems to be a problem somewhere.
 Related to the previous point, the problem may not yet be correctly identified, let
alone that there is a clear and concise problem formulation.
 The system for which a simulation is to be designed may not be well understood.
This may be either due to the complexity of the system, or due to the engineer not being
acquainted with the system. As a result most simulations start with an orientation study
which aims to get a firm understanding of the system in question. Also, objectives and
alternatives are continuously generated through the study and may be subject to change
according to the insights already gained.
3.5.2 Model Building
Model building is an art. Indeed, good model builders are equally engineers and artists. As
a result, models built by different groups for the same purpose will usually look quite
different such models will have many features in common, but there will also be
substantial differences due to the different perception of the real world. The following is a
minimal list of requirements for any good model:
– The model should model and show the operations of the system in question.
– The model should provide a solution to a real world problem.
– The model should be for the benefit of those who asked for the design of the model.
At the model building stage we can reiterate some of the common problems: Good models
are expensive and time consuming. This applies both to the human factor, i.e., to the
people involved, as well to computing power. Models are almost always imprecise since
models are almost never a complete picture of the real world. Models may appear to be
16
accurate where in fact they aren‘t. The converse is also true, where models maybe accurate
where they don‘t appear to be. Another common problem is that with the design of a
(mathematical) model we will associate numbers to certain data. This may suggest a
greater degree of validity to the model or its outcome than is actually justified.
3.5.3 Input Modeling
Once the model is designed data has to be collected and parameters have to be estimated.
This is where all the statistical methods are applied: Input data has to be collected for the
various input processes. Possible input distributions have to be selected to represent those
input processes. The choice is between theoretical distributions or empirical distributions.
Goodness-to-fit hypothesis testing is used to determine whether collected input data
matches a given theoretical distribution. If the model is used to predict effects of new
procedures then there may not be any data to collect. In this case theoretical distributions
have to be chosen to model various input processes. Parameters of the distributions have to
be estimated using either point estimators or interval estimators. Let us state again the main
use of the most important probability distributions:
Binomial distribution. This distribution models the number of successes in successive

trials, where the trials are independent from each other and there is _a common success
probability _
Poisson distribution. This distribution is used to model arrival processes in fixed time
intervals where arrivals are independent. Thus this distribution can be used to model
arrivals of customers at a counter, or arrivals of printer jobs at the printer queue.
Exponential distribution. The exponential distribution models time between independent
events. A typical use of this distribution is the time between arrivals at a counter. If arrivals
are modeled by the Poisson distribution then inter-arrivals are modeled by the exponential
distribution.
Normal distribution. The normal distribution is the most common distribution. It often
models errors or processing time due to its symmetric character.
Weibull distribution. Finally, the Weibull distribution is often used to model time to-
failure of systems or system components.
17
Once the choice is made for a particular distribution then the parameters have to be
estimated. The following is a list of parameters for some of the more common distributions
and the common point estimators for their parameters.
Distribution Parameters Suggested Estimator

If no input data is available then parameters have to be estimated. The parameters can then
be based on engineered data or on expert opinion. The physical nature of the process or
natural conventions may impose limitations on the choice of the parameter. Some of the
parameters of the simulation may also need starting or initial values. Those may come
again from observed data or from expert opinion.
3.5.4 Verification and Validation
Verification and validation are two important steps in design. Verification refers to
whether a model behaves as intended. Validation refers to the agreement between a model
and the real world. Verification and validation are also seen as answers to the questions
‘are we building the model right?‘ (verification) and ‘are we building the right model?‘
(Validation). Thus validation relates the real world with the conceptual model, while
verification relates the conceptual model with the operational model: Validation aims to
establish confidence into the model, i.e., confidence that the model is indeed a true picture
of the real world. A model that is not validated is only of academic interest and of hardly
any use in decision making or analyzing a real-world situation. Since validation is part of
the art no prescribed mechanism exists for it. However, basic guidelines are the following:
 Results (say outcomes of the model) must be reasonable. This is often established
 With test data where the correct outcome is known beforehand.
 Testing of assumptions.
 Testing of input-output transformations, i.e., does a certain variation of the input
parameters result in reasonable changes of the output results.
Validation is usually achieved through common sense and logic, by taking advantage of
knowledge and insight available, by empirical testing, by paying attention to details, by
debugging of the program, by input-output analysis and comparison with real-life data, and
by checking predictions. From this list it becomes clear that next to data and results we
also validate concepts, methodology, and inferences.
Calibration of the model may be seen as part of the validation process. Every model is only
a partial representation of the real world. Calibration is the fine tuning of the validated
18
model. It describes how accurate or inaccurate the model is. Calibration is the term used
for the fine tuning of parameters of a system (like input distributions, parameters of the
distributions, etc.). To be able to calibrate the major part of the model has been validated.
A test often used in validating models is the Turing test. Real reports are mixed with fake
reports based on model predictions. If experienced people cannot tell apart the reports then
this suggests that the model in question is an accurate picture of the real world.
Verification is the formal process whereby it is checked that the implementation of the
model is an accurate representation of the conceptual model. Typical verification
techniques include the following:
code is checked by someone else;
use of flow charts or other visual aids in the design of the implementation;
examination of output and comparison with real life;
careful debugging;
thorough documentation;
Examination of subsystem and subsystem testing.
Again there are several aspects of the verification process. We verify the structure of the
program, the algorithm, but also the robustness of the code.
3.5.5 Output Analysis
The output analysis is often of stochastic nature. It can be performance measurements or

estimations of performance. The output analysis can also result in confidence intervals for
certain output parameters with specified confidence.
The analysis has to be done carefully, since it is easy to assign numbers too much validity
and forget that they come from a model.
19
CHAPTER FOUR
4. PRACTICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE ORGANIZATIONS
4.1 INTRODUCTION
Encarta Encyclopedia (2005) defines a bank as an organization that carries out the business
of banking. While banking consist of safeguarding and transfer of funds, lending or
facilitating loans, guaranteeing creditworthiness and exchange of money, with the aim
of making profit by paying deposits a lower rate of interest than the rate the bank
charges. Among this banks commercial bank of Ethiopia is one of financial institutions in
the world that give financing services. Commercial banks are profitable financial
institutions that give financial service to the body in need of the service. They accept
money from the depositors and lend it to the borrowers. Thus, for commercial banks In
order to achieve their organizational plan and to maximize their profit customers are the
most decisive stakeholders. Here customer includes not only borrowers and depositors but
also any individual, business organization, institutions and others who seek the service of
the bank in general.
Simulation allows organizations to test optimisation (scheduling) strategies prior to its
implementations in the real system. Usually, this approach saves a significant amount of
time and money since it reduces the implementation disturbances in the real system and
allows the testing of the basic scheduling rules in a laboratory environment
The previous combinations can be classified as offline approaches since they are not used
on-line for operational scheduling. Currently, a great majority of scheduling tools running
in the industry are based only on optimisation techniques. It is not usually feasible to use
only a simulation model for obtaining a good scheduling due to the combinatorial
explosion of the number of candidate solutions and the time cost of simulating these
solutions.
20
4.2 COMMERCIAL BANK OF ETHIOPIA
4.2.1 VISION, MISSION, AND VALUE OF COMMERCIAL BANK OF

ETHIOPIA
VISION
 To become a world-class commercial bank by the year 2025.

MISSION
We are committed to realize stakeholder's values through enhanced financial
intermediation by deploying the best professionals and technology.
CORE VALUES
Our core values detailed below are the operating principles that guide our internal conduct
as well as our relationship with our customers, partners, and shareholders.
1. Integrity
2. Service Excellence
3. Professionalism
4. Empowerment
5. Learning Organization
6. Team Work
7. Respect for Diversity
8. Corporate Citizenship
4.2. 2 HISTORY OF COMMERCIAL BANK OF ETHIOPIA
The history of the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE) dates back to the establishment of
the State Bank of Ethiopia in 1942.
CBE was legally established as a share company in 1963 , In 1974, CBE merged with the
privately owned Addis Ababa Bank. Since then, it has been playing signiﬁcant roles in the
development of the country, Pioneer to introduce modern banking to the country, It has
more than 1456 branches stretched across the country, The leading African bank with
assets of 711.96 billion Birr as on June 30, 2019 , Plays a catalytic role in the economic
21
progress & development of the country, The first bank in Ethiopia to introduce ATM
service for local users.
Currently CBE has more than 22 million account holders and the number of Mobile and
Internet Banking users also reached more than 2.5 million as of June 30th 2019 . Active
ATM card holders reached more than 8 million.
As of June 30, 2019, 2,513 ATM machine and 9,539 POS machines were available.
It has strong correspondent relationship with more than 50 renowned foreign banks like
Commerz Bank A.G., Royal Bank of Canada, City Bank, HSBC Bank,...
CBE has a SWIFT bilateral arrangement with more than 700 others banks across the
world.
CBE combines a wide capital base with more than 37,894 talented and committed
permanent employees and more than 22,000 outsourced jobs as of June 30, 2019.
Pioneer to introduce Western Union Money Transfer Services in Ethiopia early 1990s and
currently working with other 20 money transfer agents like Money Gram, Atlantic
International (Bole), Xpress Money etc.
CBE has opened four branches in South Sudan and has been in the business since June
2009.
CBE has reliable and long-standing relationships with many internationally acclaimed
banks throughout the world.
CBE Receives Top Taxpayer Award -Ministry of Revenues has awarded the Commercial
Bank of Ethiopia (CBE) for being the most loyal top taxpayer by paying over 3.5 billion
Birr in the fiscal year 2018/19.
CUSTOMER CLASSIFICATION
The bank shall classify its customers based on the following two dimensions;
a) Economic Ownership Dimension b) Volume and value of transaction
Volume and value of Transaction
The Bank shall classify the customers in to the following three broad customer segments
according to their value;
i. Retail /consumer/customers
ii. Business customer
iii. Premium customers
22
4.2.3 TYPES AND FEATURES OF DEPOSIT PRODUCTS AND SERVICES
i. Savings Account: This product shall consist the basic and differentiated type of
savings account;
a. Ordinary Saving Account
b. Women Saving Account
c. Youth Saving Account
d. Teen-youth Saving Account
e. Education Saving Account
ii. Demand deposit Account: This product shall consist the basic and differentiated
type of demand deposit account;
a. Ordinary demand deposit account
b. Special demand deposit account
c. ECX related accounts
iii. Fixed-Time Deposit
The local deposit products listed herein above may have the following additional
distinguishing features based on the purpose of the account and the request of the
customer/s;
i. Account for minors
ii. Joint Accounts

iii. Earmarked Accounts
iv. Account for interdicted persons
v. Staff Accounts
vi. Cash Indemnity Account
vii. Overdraft Account
23
Type of Foreign Deposit Products

CATS‘ process shall offer the following foreign deposit products in selected
branches;
a) Non Resident Transferable foreign currency Account
b) Non Resident Transferable birr Account
c) Non Resident Non-Transferable birr Account
d) Foreign Exchange Retention accounts
I. Retention‖ A‖
II. Retention ―B‖
e) Diaspora accounts
I. Diaspora Demand deposit account
II. Diaspora Fixed Time deposit
III. Diaspora Non-Repatriable A/C
Branch Banking Procedure Process shall provide the following services:
a) Muday Bank Service

b) Fund Transfer
c) Local Money Transfer
d) Foreign Money Transfer
e) Safe deposit box
f) Agency Services
4.2.4 QUEUING PROCESS IN THE BANK INDUSTRY
Queuing is the process of moving customers in a specific sequence to a specific
service according to the customer need. The term scheduling stands for the process of
computing a schedule. This may be done by a queuing based scheduler. This paper
focuses on the banks lines system, the different queuing algorithms that are used in
banks to serve the customers, and the average waiting time. The aim of this paper is to
build automatic queuing system for organizing the banks queuing system that can
analyses the queue status and take decision which customer to serve. The new queuing
architecture model can switch between different scheduling algorithms according to
the testing results and the factor of the average waiting time. The main innovation of
this work concerns the modeling of the average waiting time is taken into processing,
in addition with the process of switching to the scheduling algorithm that gives the
best average waiting time.
24
Today banks are one of the most important units of the public. Since the foundational
work of banks, many researchers try to get full advantage of any new technology to
increase customer satisfaction. A queuing system consists of one or more servers that
provide service to arriving customers. The population of customers may be finite
(closed systems) or infinite (open systems). The arrival process describes how
customers enter the system. The customers arrive to the service center in a random
fashion. Queue represents a certain number of customers waiting for service. The
capacity of a queue is either limited or unlimited. Bank is an example of unlimited
queue length. The service is an activity requested by a customer, where each service
takes a specific time. The scheduling algorithm is used to order the customers and to
choose the next customer from the queue. The most common scheduling algorithms
are
a) FCFS (First Come First Serve): The customers are served in the order of their arrival,
which is most visibly fair because all customers think of themselves as equal.
b) RSS (Random Selection for Service): In this algorithm, customers are selected for
service at random, so each customer in the queue has the same probability of being
selected for service irrespective of his/her arrival in the service system.
c) PRI (Priority Service): The customers are grouped in priority classes according to some
external factors. The customer with the highest priority is served first.
d) SPF (Shortest Processed First): The algorithm assumes that the service times are known
in advance. When several customers are waiting in the queue, the SPF algorithm picks the
shortest service time first. The departure represents the way customers leave the system.
25
4.2.5 QUEUING IN COMMERCIAL BANK OF ETHIOPIA

4.1.5.1 Service Delivery Time
S.No Service type Details’ Average service delivery time in

mints /days
Waiting Processing Total time
time time
1 Account opening Saving account 5 10 15
Current Account 5 13 18
2 Collection Cash Deposit to Saving account 2 5 7
Cash Deposit to Current 2 8 10
account
Cash Deposit Local transfer 2 5 7
Cash Deposit CPO insurance 3 7 10
3 Local payment Withdrawal from saving 2 4 6
Withdrawal from current 2 5 7
Account
Local money transfer 2 5 7
CPO Payment 2 5 7
FCY currency Purchase 2 3 5
4 Foreign transfer Payment from MTOs system 2 7 10
accessed at branch
Payment from MTOs system 2 17 20
accessed at center
5 Online banking Mobile banking subscribe 2 6 8
Internet banking personnel - 8 10
6 ATM Cards ATM card registration - 3 5
ATM Cad delivery - 15 days 15 days
7 CBE Birr CBE Birr registration 2 8 10
CBE Birr merchant registration 2 3 3

8 POS development POS Deployment after collecting - 15 days 15 days
9 Autontication Document Within - 2 days 2 days
autontication for the same
court payment day
26
interactions & Within - 5 days 5 days

power of attorney the same
day
Excesses cash fund - Within the Within the
same day same day
10 Reconciliation ATM Transaction - 24 Hours 24 Hours
Adjustment and
POS transaction - 3 days 3 days
Balancing
4.3 CARVICO ETHIOPIA
4.3.1 VISION, MISSION, VISION AND VALUE OF CARVICO ETHIOPIA
VISION
To create models in the sector with its superior qualified team, its modern infrastructure
and advanced applications, and to be one of the contemporary institutions that are
addressed as reference in its field and to be a world brand which is respectful to the
environment and human, compatible with the technology, this is reaching power to set
world standards in production and increasing the competitiveness of our country at the
international level.
MISSION,
Engage effectively, responsibly and profitably in the global garment and textile industry
CARVICO ETHIOPIA seeks a high standard of performance and aims to maintain a long-
term leadership position in the Garment & textile market segments in which it competes.
 To be a pioneer in the world in its sector by investing in people and technology and
by producing quality products at affordable price.
 To ensure the highest level of customer satisfaction.
 To be at peace with nature by creating and promoting the environmental awareness
and to fulfill our social responsibility.
 With the principle of "First Human", to be example for other companies
VALUE
Reliability: To be reputable and honest by standing behind the promises and working
ethically and legally.
Professionalism: To be aware of our responsibilities, to take the necessary measures in

time in order to provide the best service in the name of responding to all the expectations
27
and needs of internal and external customers in the field of service by being customer-
oriented.
Being Different -Business is basically not only to continue but also to bring new value-
added solutions.
Innovative- By exhibiting a positive attitude to changing conditions effectively, to be
flexible and have a creative perspective.
Reliability: To be reputable and honest by standing behind the promises and working
ethically and legally.
Team Spirit- To achieve the company goals by working consistently and efficiently
structure of CARVICO Ethiopia plc
Environment: we will operate responsibly to minimize negative and enhance positive
environmental, social and economic impact ensuring the long term sustainability of our
business and of the resources on which we depend.
Respect: we work together with our partners and suppliers with respect and integrity to
develop and maintain long lasting and mutually beneficial working relationships.
4.3.2 HISTORY OF CARVICO

12 JULY 1962: WHEN IT ALL BEGAN FOR CARVICO
It was the summer of 1962 when GIUSEPPE COLNAGHI established the Tessitura
Carvico SAS, the first textile manufacturer in Italy to specialize in the production, dyeing
and finishing of woven fabrics. The company was named after the village where it was,
and still is, headquartered, while the company business strategy was based on the ―pleasure
of doing things properly‖, hence its pioneering decision to produce just a few fabrics of a
very high, undisputable quality. In the ‘70s, with the advent of elastomeric fibers, Carvico,
following its enlightened business approach which still characterizes its choices, started
producing stretch, warp knitted fabrics. This turned out to be a winning move and in a few
years Carvico became a trend setter and the Italian market leader in the production of
stretch, warp knitted fabrics for swimwear, underwear, sportswear and outerwear. In
December 2005, following the untimely demise of the company founder, Ms. Laura
COLNAGHI CALISSONI took over, becoming the main shareholder of what has now
become a Group. In 2017 she was honoured with the prestigious title of Cavaliere del
Lavoro.
Today, Carvico S.P.A. can boast a production rivaling with the biggest global players‘, and
is still deeply aware of the importance of relying on its own prestigious tradition while, at
the same time, anticipating the future and facing new challenges.
28
11 NOVEMBER 1977: JERSEY LOMELLINA IS ESTABLISHED

11 November 1977 will go down in the Group history as a day to remember: we are talking about
the day when JERSEY LOMELLINA, a new Italian enterprise specializing in the production of
stretch circular knitted jersey, was officially established. GIUSEPPE COLNAGHI was driven to
create JERSEY LOMELLINA by his passion for challenges, which characterized both his
approach to sports and to business. 1988 was actually a pivotal year for the new company, since
they started producing stretch, circular knitted fabrics. A brave and bold choice which allowed JL
to become, in few years, the market leader in the production of fabrics for underwear, beachwear
and leisure. Phasing out cotton products to focus on the use of the more versatile micro fibre, has
allowed JL to satisfy a wider range of customers, from those belonging to the sportswear market to
the most adventurous trend setters.
THE NEW MILLENIUM AROUND THE WORLD

At the beginning of the new millennium, both companies started expanding globally,
starting from the establishment, in 2001, of Carvico Hong Kong Ltd. and in 2002 of the
first overseas warehouse in Brisbane, in Australia.
In the 2006-2016 decade Carvico and JL consolidated their position on the global market
by setting up first Carvico Trading Shanghai Co.Ltd. and then, in 2010, Carvico USA Inc.
with two sales offices, one in New York and another one in Los Angeles.
It was a very active decade, featuring relevant investments in new technologies and new
fabrics aimed at diversifying their offering and keeping up with global competitors.
Nowadays, the Carvico Group has become synonymous to Made in Italy high-end quality,
the perfect blend of technical features, excellence and style
Today, Carvico Ethiopia Plc, is a branch of one of the leading Italian Textile company,
worldwide leader in the production of warp-knitted and circular Knitted fabrics, start
construction of fabric factory in Kombolcha in the compound of the existing Kombolcha
Industrial Park and currently working in KIP Kombolcha Industry park compound
temporary renting shed 4.
4.3.3 TYPES OF TEXTILE MANUFACTURING PROCESS

4. 3. 3.1. Yarn manufacturing
Traditionally, yarn manufacturing comprises a series of processes involved in converting
the fiber into yarn. It was rooted in natural fibers obtained from natural plant or animal
sources. Natural fibers are produced with natural impurities that were removed from the
yarn in subsequent pretreatment processes.
4. 3.3.2. Fabric manufacturing

Textile fabric is at least a two-dimensional structure produced by fiber/yarn interlacing.
The interlaced fibrous structure mainly used is woven, nonwoven, and knitted.
Traditionally, the weaving technology was the principal source for fabric production.
29
The important types of woven fabric produced are the basic weaves, such as plain or tabby,
twill, and satin, and the fancy weaves, including pile, jacquard, dobby, and gauze.
Knitted fabric is the second major type of fabric used following the woven. It has a
characteristic of accommodating the body contour and provided the ease of movement. It is
particularly a comfortable form of fabric structure for sports, casual wear, and
undergarment. Knitted fabrics include weft types and the warp types, raschel, and tricot.
4. 3.3.3 Garment manufacturing

Garment is known as a piece of clothing. Garment design and manufacturing is the
combination of art and technology.
Garment manufacturing has seen several advancements in design development, computer-
aided manufacturing (CAD), and automation. However, the older version of garment
manufacturing process is still the main theme today—that is, the cutting and joining of at
least two pieces of fabric. The sewing machine has the function of joining woven or cut-
knitted fabrics. Garments are mostly produced by sewing the pieces of fabric using a
sewing machine. These machines are still based on the primary format used.
4.3.3.4 Technical textile

Technical textile is an established domain of interdisciplinary application of textile
products. Most of the major industrial sectors are benefiting the function of fiber material.
Process Flow Chart of Garments Manufacturing | Sequence of Garments

Production Process.
The ready-made garment manufacturing processing depends on some steps and techniques.
The clothing creation running actions and methods included in the developing outfits for the
huge of creation in company time frame for company reasons is known as outfits developing
technologies. Garments plants are identified according to their item kinds are as follows:
Garments Factory is classified with some dept.
1. Woven Garment Factory.
2. Knit Garments factory
3. Sweater Garments Factory
Garments Production Process:

Stepwise garments manufacturing sequence on industrial basis is given below:
Design / Sketch
↓
Pattern Design
↓
Sample Making
↓
Production Pattern
↓
30
Grading
↓
Marker Making
↓
Spreading
↓
Cutting
↓
Sorting/Bundling
↓
Sewing/Assembling
↓
Inspection
↓
Pressing/ Finishing
↓
Final Inspection
↓
Packing
↓
Despatch
4.3.4 REAL-TIME AUTOMATION,
Real Time Automation creates connectivity solutions for industrial and building
automation. These solutions include gateways, daughter cards and embedded source code.
The new challenge for automation engineers is to control the business of the industry, not
just the efficiency of the plant. Changes in business variables, and technology ranging from
smart instruments to software, are converging to enable plant managers to directly affect
the bottom line whether the business goal is refining the most oil or bottling the perfect
batch of beer, the most important function of automation is to help companies achieve
optimum performance. But ―optimum‖ is a moving target, and usually dependent on who
is defining it. The business variables associated with manufacturing and process plants are
changing faster than ever before.
Luckily, technology is enabling faster business decision making based on real-time data.
Pilot projects are demonstrating value quickly and are being rolled out across locations.
And plant managers and controls engineers are on their way to becoming not just
efficiency experts, but essential business partners.
31
Controlling the efficiency of an operation directly translated into controlling the
profitability of an operation: If you reduce energy consumption, you reduce energy cost. If
you increase volume, you increase production value, But all of a sudden the business
variables in manufacturing have started changing from being highly stable over long
periods of time to starting to demonstrate real-time variability. So now the question is how
do plant managers and controls engineers deal with a real-time world.
4.3.5 SIMULATION IN CARVICO ETHIOPIA
Knitting Department Stop Detail Real Time Report
Cod Description Start End Waiting Standard Operator Roll

time Time
11 Mechanical 08:00:00 10:43:47 02:43:47 - Henock 000008558
breakdown
11C-S Bearing change 10:46:36 11:30:09 00:43:33 Henock 000008558
U2 Starting 11:30:10 11:51:04 00:20:54 00:15:00 Bizuwork 000008558
52 Intervention 11:51:05 14:08:31 02:17:26 00:20:00 Emetamir 000008558
96 Closing 16:02:03 16:02:03 Henock 000008558
T5 Stain 08:35:47 08:36:08 00:00:21 00:05:00 Hanan 000008558
03 Electrical Energy 10:46:42 10:48:07 00:01:25 Henock 0200223
lack
32
Week 49/2019 Real Time Report
Efficiency 85.7 Productivity 85.8

Stop 118:08:02 Hours
Pro. QTY 8537.87 K.G
Qty Target 9948.53 K.G
Speed 12.2 K/O
No Cod Description Stop Spin % N.
off Stops
Hours Mints Second
1 11 Mechanical 43 36 32 39.9 4
2 52 Intervention 16 10 53 13.7 54
3 64 Threading 9 41 42 8.2 14
4 V2 knitting Elements CH 7 16 39 6.2 1
5 51 Yarn Breakage 6 55 21 5.9 144
6 61 Guide BAR regulation 3 33 26 3 104
7 59 Warping Electric Energy 3 13 52 2.7 16
Lack
8 O3 Electric Enegry Lack 12 34 3:12:34 2.7 69
9 U2 Starting 3 29 20 2.1 14
10 O1 Closer tongue change 2 25 0 2 8
11 53 Roll Cut 2 19 15 2 58
12 U6 Anomaly 2 56 45 1.6 41
13 O2 Sinker change 1 43 13 1.5 2
14 D3 Set change 1 42 6 1.4 11
15 O2 Waiting set change 1 39 13 1.4 9
16 D4 Waiting threading 1 34 55 1.3 11
17 T4 Punch Hole 1 26 19 1.2 53
18 86 Check 1 24 28 1.2 3
19 T7 Needle change 1 10 29 1 7
33
Week 50/2019 Real Time Report
Pro 80.7 Pro 81.1

Stop 159:18:49 Hours
Pro. QTY K.G
8,319.55
Qty Target K.G
10,253.22
Speed 12.6 K/O
No Cod Description Stop Spin % N.
off Stops
Hours Minits Second
1 11 Mechanical 58 43 37 37 36.9 9
2 52 Intervention 44 4 46 46 27.7 89
3 51 Yarn Breakage 7 53 12 5 151
4 64 Threading 7 24 2 4 9
5 V2 knitting Elements CH 6 30 31 3.5 5
6 86 check 5 48 1 3 6
7 61 Guide BAR 4 36 25 2.9 108
regulation
8 94 Change Article 4 51 35 2.4 8
9 U2 Starting 3 41 4 2.3 105
10 59 Warping 3 35 43 2.3 14
11 O2 Waiting set change 3 6 56 1.3 10
12 53 Roll Cut 2 53 34 1.2 58
13 D3 Set change 1 50 35 1.2 9
14 D4 Waiting threading 1 44 48 1.1 8
15 T7 Needle change 1 41 56 1.1 10
16 T1 Stretch 1 30 36 0.9 77
17 U8 Waiting Rolle cut 1 14 35 0.8 51
18 U3 Past 1 6 2 0.7 2
19 V1 Waiting maintenance 1 4 59 0.7 2
20 T4 Punch Hole 1 2 24 0.7 36
21 96 closing 1 1 32 0.6 94
34
CHAPTER FIVE
5.1 CONCLUSION
In a queue system, the balance between dealing with all customers fairly and the performance of
the system is very important. Sometimes the performance of the system is more important than
dealing with the customers fairly. Commercial bank of Ethiopia gives different services to its
customers. These services includes withdrawal, deposit, opening of account, check deposit, foreign
remittance, fund transfer and other additional services for the assignment purpose we try to show
arrival and waiting time of customers in the above table.
SIMULATION concept that integrates discrete optimisation and discrete event simulation for the
textile industry. Although the system has been developed for the textile industry, the same
methodology can be applied to other industries that require planning and optimisation in the
plant processes.
Textile fibers provided an integral component in modern society and physical structure known for
human comfort and sustainability. Man is an ancient friend of fashion. The quest for better
garment and apparel led to the development of textile fiber production and textile manufacturing
process.
A textile manufacturing process involves the production or conversion of textile fiber through a
defined process in a product. The resultant textile product can be a finished product ready for
consumer market, or it may be an intermediate product to be used as an input (raw material)
substance to produce another textile product.
35
Reference:
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DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS FOR DECISION MAKING

Prepared By: ID Number

Worash Engidaw SGSE/237/12

I. CHAPTER I: GAME THEORY ....................................................................................1

1.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 1

IV. CHAPTER IV: PRACTICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE ORGANIZATIONS ...........................20

4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 20

4.3.2 History of Carvico .................................................................................................. 28

VI. REFFERENCES ..........................................................................................................36

1.2 WHAT IS GAME THEORY?

Deﬁnition: A strategic form game is composed of

1.4 Types of Games There are various types of games on different

1.5 CHARACTERISTICS OR PROPERTIES OF A GAME

1.6 BASIC ELEMENTS OF GAME THEROY

conflicting situations, such as bargaining and the formation of coalitions.

1.7 STEPS IN SOLVING THE GAME

CHAPTER TWO: QUEUENING

2.2 BASIC STRUCTURE OF QUEUING MODELS

2.2.1 QUEUEING SYSTEM

2.2.2 Input Source (Calling Population)

2.3 QUEUING SYSTEM

 The prototype example is of this type.

 Queues (waiting lines) affect people everyday

2.4 QUEUING SYSTEM COSTS

2.5 CHARACTERISTICS OF A QUEUING SYSTEM

2.5.1.1 Poisson distribution

 Average arrival rate is known

2.5.2 Queue Characteristics

According to the online version of the Encyclopedia Britannica, ‘a [computer]

3.2 ADVANTAGES OF SIMULATION

3.3 DISADVANTAGES IN USING SIMULATIONS:

 Model building requires special training, and designing complex simulations is

The following are a couple of potential applications of simulation related to computer

3.5 STEPS IN SIMULATIONS

Designing a simulation consists at least of the following steps:

To recognize if simulation is the correct approach to solving a particular problem, four

3.5.1 Problem Formulation

3.5.2 Model Building

3.5.3 Input Modeling

Binomial distribution. This distribution models the number of successes in successive

Distribution Parameters Suggested Estimator

3.5.4 Verification and Validation

3.5.5 Output Analysis

The output analysis is often of stochastic nature. It can be performance measurements or

4.2 COMMERCIAL BANK OF ETHIOPIA

4.2.1 VISION, MISSION, AND VALUE OF COMMERCIAL BANK OF

 To become a world-class commercial bank by the year 2025.

7. Respect for Diversity

4.2. 2 HISTORY OF COMMERCIAL BANK OF ETHIOPIA

a) Economic Ownership Dimension b) Volume and value of transaction

Volume and value of Transaction

4.2.3 TYPES AND FEATURES OF DEPOSIT PRODUCTS AND SERVICES

a. Ordinary Saving Account

b. Women Saving Account

c. Youth Saving Account

d. Teen-youth Saving Account

e. Education Saving Account