Probability

Iwan Ariawan
Dept. Biostatistics - SPHUI
What is Probability

◼ Probability is a number that represents the likelihood that a

particular event will occur
◼ Event is an outcome of an experiment or survey
◼ Probability is the basic of statistics
◼ You cannot properly learn the method of inferential statistics
without first knowing the basics of probability
Assigning Probabilities

◼ Classical Approach
❑ Assigning probabilities based on prior knowledge of the process involved
❑ Example: Assigning the probability of rolling a dice
◼ Empirical Approach
❑ Assigning probabilities based on frequencies obtained from empirically observed
data
❑ Example: Probabilities of an infant who is born in Indonesia to die before the age
of 12 months
◼ Subjective Approach
❑ Assigning probabilities based on expert opinions or other subjective means such
as feelings or hunches
❑ Example:Probabilities of a football team winning the game
Some Important Rules of Probability

◼ RULE 1: The probability of an event must be between 0 and 1

◼ RULE 2: The event A doesn’t occur is called A complement
(A’) and P(A’)=1-P(A)
❑ Probability of a child get diarrhoea = 0.15
❑ Probability of a child doesn’t get diarrhoea =
1-0.15 = 0.85
Exercise

◼ In a study of 348 children age 0-59 months, 40 of them

suffered from diarrhoea in the previous month. Thirty children
are under weight. From the children with diarrhoea, 23 of
them are underweight.
❑ What is the probability of a child with underweight in the sample?
❑ What is the probability of a child without underweight in the sample?
Some Important Rules of Probability

◼ RULE 3: If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, the

probability of both events A and B occuring is 0
❑ Probability of a person has 0 blood type is 0.50
❑ Probability of a person has A blood type is 0.25
❑ Probability of a person has 0 and A blood type is 0
Some Important Rules of Probability

◼ RULE 4: If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, the

probability of either event A or B occuring is the sum of their
separate probabilities
❑ Probability of a person has 0 blood type is 0.50
❑ Probability of a person has A blood type is 0.25
❑ Probability of a person has 0 or A blood type is:
0.50 + 0.25 = 0.75
Exercise

◼ In a study of 348 children age 0-59 months, 40 of them

suffered from diarrhoea in the previous month. Thirty children
are under weight. From the children with diarrhoea, 23 of
them are underweight.
❑ Are diarrhoea and underweight mutually exclusive events?
Some Important Rules of Probability

◼ RULE 5: If events in a set are mutually exclusive and

collectively exhaustive, the sum of their probabilities must add
up to 1.0
❑ Probability of a person has 0 blood type is 0.50
❑ Probability of a person has A blood type is 0.25
❑ Probability of a person has B blood type is 0.15
❑ Probability of a person has AB blood type is 0.10
❑ Probability of a person has either 0, A, B or AB blood type is:
0.50+0.25+0.15+0.10 = 1.0
Some Important Rules of Probability

◼ RULE 6: If two events A and B are not mutually

exclusive, the probability of either event A or event
B occuring is the sum of their separate probabilities
minus the probability of their simultaneous
occurence (joint probability)
❑ Probability of a child get diarrhoea: 0.15
❑ Probability of a child get ARI: 0.20
❑ Probability of a child get diarrhoea & ARI: 0.05
❑ Probability of a child get either diarrhoea or ARI:
0.15 + 0.20 – 0.05 = 0.30
Exercise

◼ In a study of 348 children age 0-59 months, 40 of them

suffered from diarrhoea in the previous month. Thirty children
are under weight. From the children with diarrhoea, 23 of
them are underweight.
❑ What is the probability of a child has underweight and diarrhoea from
the sample?
Some Important Rules of Probability

◼ RULE 7: If two events A and B are independent, the probability of both

events A and B occuring is equal to the product of their respective
probability. Two events are independent if the occurence of one event
in no way affects the probability of the second event
❑ The probability of a subject is male is 0.54
❑ The probability of a subject get diarrhoea is 0.20
❑ The probability of a subject is male and also diarrhoea is:
0.54 * 0.20 = 0.108 → Only TRUE if gender and diarrhoea are independet
Exercise

◼ In a study of 348 children age 0-59 months, 40 of them

suffered from diarrhoea in the previous month. Thirty children
are under weight. From the children with diarrhoea, 23 of
them are underweight.
❑ Are diarrhoea and underweight independent each other?

❑ If D & Uw = independent → P (D&Uw) = (40/348)*(30/348)

❑ Fact = 23/348
Some Important Rules of Probability

◼ RULE 8: If two events A and B are not independent, the probability of

both events A and B occuring is the product of the probability of event
A times the conditional probability of event B, given that event A has
occured
❑ Probability of a child malnourished is 0.05
❑ Probability of a child get measles is 0.20
❑ Probability of a malnourshied child get measles is 0.30
❑ Probability of a non malnourished child get measles is 0.10
❑ Probability of a child malnourished and get measles:
0.05 * 0.30 = 0.015
Exercise
◼ In a study of 348 children age 0-59 months, 40 of them
suffered from diarrhoea in the previous month. Thirty children
are under weight. From the children with diarrhoea, 23 of
them are underweight.
❑ What is the probability of a child does not underweight and does not
have diarrhoea?
P (not Uw) = 318/348; P (not D) = 308/348
P (not Uw and not D) = (318*308)/348*348
P (Uw \ D) = 23/40
P (Uw dan D) = P(D) * (Puw|D) = (40/348)*(23/40) = 23/348
P (notUw dan notD) = 1 – 23/348