TU Solution of STATISTICAL METHODS MA. Economics Second Semester Publi Usher & Distributors: New Hira Books Enterprises Kiriour, Kathmandu Ph: 4-3: Edition: Firstt, 2018 at Second, 2019 Third, 2020 © Author Price: 4957, Printed in Nepal Part - 1: Solution of TU Board Exam Questions Statistical Methods (2015 TU) Group A: Long Answer Questions. 10x2=20 oon ee ee {What do you mean by binomial distribution? Find mean ‘and variance of binomial distribution. Solution. In probability and statistics, the Bemoulli/binomial distribution, named after swiss miathematicfan Jacob Bernoulli in 1700, is the probability distribution of a random variable which takes the Value 1 with probability P and the value O with probability q = 4p. A binomial experiment is a statistical experiment that has the following properties:- The experiment consists of n repeated trials. Each trial can result ia just two possible outcomes. We call ‘one of these outcomes a success and the other a faflure. The probability of success, denoted by P, is the same on every trial Conditions of Binomial distribution = The number of observations ‘nis fixed. = Bach observation is independent — Bach observation represents one of two outcomes (success oF failure) ‘The probability of success (p) Is the same for each outcome then q = 1~p.is the probability of failure in any tral Definition of binomial distribution: IP be the probability of success and q = 1~ p be the probability of failure in‘n' independent trials, then probability of exactly x’ success is given by, Phx) = "GP where, 20,1, 2, snlMean and variance of Binomial Distribution Suppose X ~ B(n, p) so that ils pmaf is PK CP qh = Plx) whore, n= number of trials OA Zsa = probability of success in each trial ptqet ‘such that xs following binomial distribution, then mean (wis defined as, w= BOs) = Dap(x) = Deore “oe a “ai ayy estes ea oy, "Sia a = EMG, peg Cam eG pigns 4 Sa i am =oplP +a" = nptiytas,P+q=1 =p Mean of binomial distribution (1) = mp or Efx) = np ‘ ariance of binomial distribution is defined es, Again, the v var(x) oF ox? = Bb) = [BGI = Foe) ~ Impl? = Ex!) —n'p* Now, Ex!) = Lex) = Deepa = Tix ~1)+x]'C,p'q"* = Lexa Cupra DxCp'a™ fq’ +np a(n-1)(n-2)! pass eo = a(n Ee ap eee = a(enayp ere epee open eC Pala = nla -t)pitp + +0P = nfa-a)p? + ap‘= mp? = np? + np Hence vvar(x) = Ex?) = [BG]? = DF Meaning of by and b ‘As the constant value of b, and b, are known as the partial slope coefficient of regression equation. — by is the average rate of change in sales to change in radio expenditure; newspaper advertisement expenditure remaining same L.e, b, = 1.66 shows that sales of commodity increases by 1.66 thousands when radio advertisement increases by one thousand keeping newspaper advertisement unchanged, = by is the average rate of change in sales to the change in newspaper advertisement expenditure; radio advertisement expenditure remaining same ie. b; = 0.0169 indicates the sales of commodity increases by 0.0169 thousands when newspaper advertisement increase by one thousand keeping. radio advertisement expenditure constant. fil, Finding coefficient of determination, ‘As we know, The TE is expressed as Where, Set = Sy? —ay~b,EXY — DEX 182 — 0.644 x 56 — 1.06 x 505 ~ 0.0169 x 276 152a 0.075 25, ‘Therofore the value of cool of determination is Interpretation iA means 92.5% of total veu leis explained by regress certor term, Tino ares 7.5% a Group nxsoa0 short Amawor Question 1 (OLS) method 4 What dv yoru How do yo wv nde ain if O15 method solution Ine atatiatien, ordinary vot squares, (OLS) i a method for erimating the unknown pruners fn a finer eypwssion node $0 it nqgaredl as Tinea Ueaal squares. ‘his anethod ninianiags Ue sim oF squared vertical isl flvaarved responses in Ue cated ad the thu linear approximation, ‘hy OLS estimator is consistent when the rexressors ar oxognnous andl there is no multicollinearity, and optimal in the tls of linear anbiased estimators when the errors are ‘and serially uncorrelated, Under these conditions, nimure-variance mean-unbiased Ihomoscedasti the motbord of OLS provi ostinations when the errors have finite varianens, OLS is used in economics (econometrics) and electrical engineering (control thoury and signal processing), among many areas of applica Senge, under this method of estimation, the regression parame stimated by minimizing the sum of the square of. the deviation between population value/actual value and estima od values his ‘method of estimation was developed by Gorman n Gark Friedrich on finding of loast square method of gression analysis Ws the classical and most popular method ialing regtossion parameters of lincar regression model, 1 ofthe paran 1s of simple linear n We have, the simple linear rege x FBX) + U, ”where, Y¥;= Dependent variable X,= Independent variable cand f are regression parameters U,= random variable where Ui ~ N(O, 0?) of U ie. U; is normally distsfbuted with ‘O° mean ag N- normal distribution. 0-+ Mean o> rasanco ‘The sample model is, Yash +0, te ¢i°= error term, Now, Yevite on ein¥-f were, Yndef '=4+ A, Is the estimated regression line. ‘According to OLS method, Fai vor IMs cording to maxima and my ‘minimum its fitst order 8 eae rst be minimum, Ia sear? £0 be estimated by making Zeit minimum: FH sinima of calculus Lei* will ee Partlal derivative with respect toa at? of, or, -25(%-4-Bx,)=0 Sy, 2nd + PDX, eer)or, je t between X; and X, keeping Xs partial correlation coefficient on Fi o ‘constant is given by woe @ and far estimated sata ed_paremete wa ES regression model SOF sil: h-aJ1— - e 0.5-0.7%0.3__ . a-o7) (1-03) 5 Gilsate the-art corselation coailey Word imltple correlation coefficfemt (Ry) from me Su’ 0.29 colin mat 4) fom the th = SesieaT 1 a7 ag oa ans 0.6812, ' = 0.4257 Solution (004257. It shows that there is lower degrees p« pao na whon X, is keeping Wehany sao aroun vara X and Xs whon Xy & Kooping const Correlation m 1 07 og bb) Multiple correlation coefficient of X; 00 Xs ai nai, |G 08 - i fre, + iy —2fiaeTyy-Toa Lot us as Rae pee conan Xo X, and a 1 "elton coficint ant <2 2 8iven variable, then thes {7 Smetana ~ [om Hosh-2x07%03%05 a cotillion ae arial X, and 105 : "lation cooticignt Wotteen variable X, and Xs comparing ty between variable X, and Xs _ [ose=02t se seas "matrix with correlation matrixa ote, the val of Rix = 0.7023, it indicates the correlation of given three variables. Specifically & atk ‘muliple correlation coefficiont with X, as dependent vane X, and X, as indopondent variable, rth probability distributony hes and weight (Y) pound, find, i) E(X) andy —_ Height (X) inches > oy oO o . et z = ° sites: Se 2} at an ee and weight Tespectively, the: sian Joint probability of these (wo vatiables is P(X, Y) Me EES. ¥ then the mathematical expectation ofX ean calculated as, 8O= Exo(y) 1 97014 45424 any 9 FE aD go? 1 a7 +0600) Ls Lago 41.75 in 5 inches FOX = 475 inet ey by Covariance of X and Y is As we know, CovtX, Y) = EIX, ¥) = E(N).E(Y) thus, to find cov(X, YJ, we have to find B(X, ¥) and EY) Finding E(Y) and E(X, Y) Bo = DYP(Y) Dee a aneba and aged esind a arc eanZe aod +4005 Hfsreazeas. a] F342] = 4278 E(X.Y)= DEX P(XY) 7 22448493444 50% = apmatx Es ADe dB E+ 40x40F : Afig27 +4092-+6321 +4400] a 085 Now, substituting the values of H(Y) and E(X, ¥) we obtain, Cov(x, ¥) = B(K, ¥) = ER).EY) 085 ~ 48.75 42.75 9375 Therefore, the required Cov(X, ¥) 9375 25ggg x= Sx 520 ‘As we n0%, ' sowhere vartX) = B08) (E00)" ind mean and variance = For, BO ne Solution + B(x) = f°x"(@x—2)8x Finding mean Ef): ee As wo know, aie (x)= f°A(x)ax = fix(ox-2)dx = [lex -ax)ax Now, Var(x) = BG) ~ (E(0)* 26) aoe Moon of the given continuous function is c2 Again. finding variance Va = 51-50 : x) 7 6 zuy Fr Therefore the value of variance of given continues functions Yi Probab, Foie normal distribution 31% it alue of probability coefficient is 0.264. It indicates that Hee aq obit of less than stk in Nepal 20.4%, * ‘are above 64. Find the mean and variance of this 3, From the experiences ts known that there om the avenp 5 strikes per month in various parts of Nepal. Assumig poisson distribution, find the probability that in a gis ‘month there will be less than four strikes in Nepal. Solution ‘Average number of strikes in Nepal (2) Let X denotes the number of strikes that occurs during a month ‘Then, using poisson distribution, the probability of exactly x siikes in every month is given by P(X=x)= 272 ‘The probability that there will be less than 4 strikes is given bys PK <4) =P = 0) 4 POC = 1) + PEK = 2) + PEK = 3) = 225) e855! ots? oa et a 28 distribution. Solution ‘Suppose X follows normal distribution with given mean and standard deviation Le, X~N(j 0%) Given, P(X < 45) = 0.31 POX > 64) = 0.08 Now 2a X= 48) = BEB neal So, P(X < 45) = P(Z 64) = PZ > Z,) = 0.08 0.08 Z=0 Z, D> Z) = 008 ot, 03-PO< ZZ.) = 0.08 oh 05-008 = P< Z. hin eon ton rbot ited ‘The formula for the calculation of R? is given by; KUNAL ar {in multiple regression equ The coeffieien comesjonding degre of ttle determination adjusted 88) hae ewe of fcedor of itfrent variation (RSS. PS 48 adjusied coefficiont of determination. 1 * denoted by (F). the () is used to contol the unnecos®” explanatory varial 'Y Variables in the model. I s obvious or clear tbat ion of two indopondont varia) 32 Ia of Rin caso of two explanatory variables the forml We have, similarly in case of’ numbers of explanator +B. 0 yy variables: ADaw+h oxy + Re when we include more and more explanatory rs value is increases but the value of Gonominator remain the same and this cause the value of Re ‘eroasing, Therefore, there may be the tendency of inchuding snore and more variables in tho model. In doing so unwanted or unocossary explanatory variable may be included in the model, ‘To avoid this problem the respective variations are adjusted by ect thoit corresponding degree of freedom and this coefficient of determination is known as R In this way variables the numerator K is the dogree of freedom of RSS 1n=1 i the dogree of freedom of TSS ei(2 2) Dy Gk, Distinguishing between coefficient of determination (R#) and sat coat of dtermintion(F) 33“hat do you mean by estimation? Describe the propertics of ee) od estima iin, ee denote adjusted coafcigg Solution Resquare (7) fi. Ris a notation used to) denote the coefficient. olf multiple determination, Re rally sGatermination. R’} of multiple determina unadjusted maltipl| fon mation is « procedure by shich population parame

1) used for ‘calculating on an aver 15. by taking into accout) produced per day. the dogrce of freedom wi ae be adjusted as eH] Fogressors arv introduced tho model. . values which is used to estimate popula 8 interval estimation. In another words, rage how much defectives are 2 Interval Estimation |A range of values which is used to estimate @ population Parameter is called an interval estimate. Hence arrangement of tion parameter is known {interval estimation is the 34 =use of sample data to calculate an interval of possi sible or values of unknown population parameter. = Properties of good estimator Any sample statistics that is used to predict a popula paremeter is called an estimater.A good estimator is one a {s close to the trug value of the population parameter as poss, The following ae some of the criteria, which should be sets by a good estimator. 1. Unbiasedness A samplo statistics sald tobe, unbiased estimator of te corresponding population parameter a6 if the mean valued sampling dstbaton of statistics is equal to the ppulin Dauner eB) = 0, For example, the trple moan Xr biased estimator of the eéresponding population mean mean ofthe sampling dition of sample mean taken foe Population is equal to the population mean ie. Bx) = Sample vances et : 8* =15.(x—R)' is not an unbiased stimetorl Population variance? ag 1 Saaz Variance o* as B[S*) = g?, oo BS!) # o%, However provides an unbioedextiate of opulio A statistic is i, 8 said to be consistent estimator if it approaches Fonulation Parone as sample ie (n increases, t0asn+0 Alternatively lant ce) 1 36 au. elteney sr ostnator is a tobe oficint ae f there are two statistics t, ony ean be measite its variance is smaller than thers. I ‘and t, with variance var (t) others. fnd var (t) than effci var(t.) sticiony = arf) FE <1, then t Is efficient estimator and. IfB > 1, then ts efficient estimator. |, Sufficiency : A statistic € = € (%yy Xay Xoo parameter @ if it contains all the information in the x, For example, the sample mean LX,) is, said to be a sufficient estimator of sample regarding the paramete {B) isa slficient estimator of the population mean (1) since all the information in the sample is used in its calculation. And sample proportion (P) is also @ sufficient estimator of population ) : 37EEE TEA sample ofS workers of@ factory according Tag's yg expected valve can be measured as Now the expected value can nature of work is as follows: Nature of Work Mate Female Total ‘Technical 200 100 oi Non-Technical 50 150 oe 250 250 500 Use chi square (2) test whether there is any relationly between Sex and work at 5% level of significance? Solution ‘Stop 1 : Setting Hypothesis 2) Null bypehesis (4) = Ther. is mo ony signin relationship between sex and work. ye ') Alternate hypothesis (H1) : Ther : significance relation ‘exist between sex and work. : : Step 2: Level of Significance Sinée the question is Sina the question is clear about the Level of significance and Step 3 : Setting the degree of freedom. ‘The dogree of feadom of above given distribu (= aY(e-1) (2-2-4) 1 Step 4: Computing the y2 can be calculate [Nature of work — lestratio as below: Female 38 RECT or (300 x 250)/500 150 (200) (50) = (250 x 2009500 (100) = (250 x 900)/500 = 150 100 (150) = (280%200)500 = 100 Agi. : 0 Ee] OF] OF oa fe loo [a0 [50 | 2500, 1087 fs —[100_| -s0_| 2500 25 fod | 150_[ -s0_| 2500 16.87 fo | 100| 50° [2500 25 (0. yA LO-E)f 203.04 =03.34 « Stop 5: Find the critical value ‘The critical value can be find out from x distribution table at $96 level of significance with the degree of freedom 1 and that Is 3081, Step Since the calculated value of ? = 83.94 is greater than that ofthe lubulated value of 72 = 9.041, Therofore null hypothesis (Ho) is rejected. Hence we can say that there is significance relationship between sox and nature of work. Compare and Decision Making 39ysis ——$ o Fast. Discuss the procedure of F-test Solution: Definition = Ftest is a statistical test that is used to test thy Ahiference between the variance of two independent aon Population, In other word, itis used to determine whether 1 Populations having normal distribution have the sari vatianc, standard deviation or not. This és an important part of Anais variance (ANOVA), However in case the ‘Aormal, Ftest may not be used and alternat test may be used. Generally the comparison of v ‘comparing the ratio of twvo variances and in e: the ratio of variances are ¢ ce Talo test. The val i population is tests like Bacto ariance is done! they ara eg qual. Therefore. Fest is also cal skessed 10 sight. In order to carry out the F to Bret determine the level of significance and then find ou! ! Gestees of freedom of numerator and denominator in ord tical values. F+test is followed by follo: tondom and independesit ubstion from whick sample ate deasn 3 listibuted Procedure of F-test; Procedure of § the onl * and similar to ather hypothesis testi Bs we use Featio by taking tv varies Te Sten 1 Seti typetene ; 1004 he hype as blow nifkcane diffornnen variances of O between “0 ue of Festatistics is not negative and F-distribution © 1 variance are not differ. i ee iis we set aypotl nas af 20 hy bj Alternative hypoth sili that thers fi vat tthe wo goto mp Hea stop 2 al of 7 gta conte i the second step ve ba te ac Gamal ol fii 0 ily in question. js pot mentioned cl af freedtom: dy ‘Stop 3: Fixing th For F denominator, ist there are bxo dugree of freedom for numerator and 1 (denominator) Stop 4 Computation of F-ratio For F-test wwe have to “Thus catio is compute ay por the hypathesis, For F-test sve tind, s E 5 8 we ¢ 8 Si sarknme ef first st of data DS) = variance af second set of Hate a~e ‘Step 5: Finding the critical value. The critical value is obtained from the table with the dep, freedom v, and v, and level of significance. Stop 6 :Coimparison and Decision Making 1 the last step the calculated value and tabulated value acer: lovol of significance and given degreos of freedom are eon ‘and the decision will be : > F tabulated value thaw thes hypothesis 1,’ is rejected. It means two samples are taken from the same population and there is signifier difference botween, e of two population, HF calculated

Proving the mean of sampling disttbution of the sample ™ population without replacement: Mean is equal to population mean, Here, N=Sandn=2 49ways reaton ewe yj Hence Mean of pt EX] Popuatan nt) Mean of ple mean is ‘0 to popaitation anean, ke Caluutating stanksct straint \ hunple Hoe Suppose : a sige Ws deste 7 eee Gstubution ot asc! Weluw " . utatest Sandal etie KIS when ‘ eke hy a vise va Now SE (Apo MA ae Altenativety, § (8) abe cant be computed by ' Non esp Nols (8) Nn Syke 31Sg mcm ive relationship between X, and Xs — ‘This shows that there is posit ftxg, Keoping variable X, constant. 1¢ simple correlation coeflicients are gi : ae F5y = 0.72, yy = 0.52. a lents are given as r,, = >. “The multiple correlation coefficient of X, on X, and Xs is 4) Partial correlation efficient ry23 and, . - 4 Tats ee eons b)_Multiple correlation coefficient R | S Miirlecorrsalon coeicientRyey Se Solution, [(or7) + (072) ~2%0.77 x0.72%0.52 - 1-(0.52) Wo ha fosoarosie-0577 fn 078 mu 052 fos? a Vo 07 Riss 54 ‘The partial correla tion coef 88 constant is givon by, This shows very strong or high combined effect of variables Xs and X, on variable X;, of ____. 5 What do you moan by 7 Distinguish between multiple cocfficient of determination (R8) and adjusted co-efficient of determination (R*). Solution : (Please see the answer of Q.No. 10 of set 2015] “tay = 0.607 82ec 5. A player losses 3 fair coins. He wins Rs, @ er aetar Tar 6 onal i aifes of & good eaimator fa occur, Rs. 3 if two heads occurs and Re, tutus Describe the properties of @ 8 1 if om secur I the game sto be fair, how much fas a to heads occur? ey Sotation Solution, "pease seo the ansver of QNo, 11 of Set 2015] Wo have, : 7 From the following contingency table, use x2 test to test the hypothesis that hard work and success are associated. ‘Success Failure Hard work 200 0 Nohard work 50 100 ae ected value of game is zero, Selution Now, Oa ‘Step 1 : Setting hypothesis 8 i significance . a. Null hypothesis (H,) : There is no any sig anes relationship between hardwork and success opt end kd '. Alternate hypothesis (H,) : There is significance relationship at ytked exist between hard work and success, Step 2: Level of Significance Since the question is not clear about the level of significance so \we consider commonly used level of significance i.e. 5%. Stop 9: Sotting the degree of freedom ‘The degree of freedom of above given distribution is (e-aYe-1) = 2-ne-1) thn =i "k= 29 ‘a Therefore i the gy here, r = no of rows i tea sl wil Pan Ue playoe is exp oof columns tod 10 loose RE sa 55Hie 22 test eat Loe ealeulated as below Siverss ” ] 7 Baile i 7 200 a : ie ear 250 i spected vale be averse pcr f How nat (1 Coton ttt OF © Godot fe40« 2500%20- aan Hem ewe 15M aD Hu) to 9180 9 22 370 a4 9y N00) e200 x 4 e 200 OPE T OE jeg | | en wr i saad ng | ' ‘eo FOC yp ie fof 2220; con aga se [98.30 | ay ot rz 0 | ‘uaa ont ua | XCar 1 Lon Ete 25: the oe HUIS S HEN “The critical vl Seah cere To towel of Pai 2° step 6: Gmpare anal Besistost MAING ee Fo Sigve the «alt Ce mci IN tabulated sate ot eg auntie oti wd restead ence Dotavews Hail sar a siswee ant 2008) 10. Fein th past experiemye it iy Kasse iat there ane an ts arts of Nepal pitity that in Nepa average atrihes per stonth rimming passion alisteibation. Pind the probs sil He fess than athe Solution, Wiewe ve the ateaver ul LLNe, Bot set ZOU LL Distinguish: between sampling, Where se Hos ansiger of Qo. 2 ab set 2005) i. Deseo the process oF estonating poptai ‘Solution [Please se tho anaver of Q.Na. 2 of set 2015] 718, Distinguish between hypothesis testing and coy hae, terval. Scare Hypothesis is some assumption or statement, which may g not be true, about population, which we want to test on the| fe of the evidence ffom a random sample. Therefore, ypu, testing is proowss of testing. significance of poms ‘Parameters on the basis of sample drawn from the ‘Population. Sims confdence intervals a range of values so defi ere isa specified probability thatthe value ofa params! within it The confidence interval can take any numba: Probabilities, with the most common being 9596 or 909%, Dis Deten hype esting and confidence inna f pages Teste Confidence Interval alee, 5 anf. The confidence infoalé veasure the] an attempt to provide lls: evidence apinst : | hypothesis “than ee pparamelet [a Tsing ests lates tla Confidence intend | stalstical significa rovide a range of plas statistical significance °° "| Values of your populate. Hipotiesis usting is ae Confidence intervals & ant af Conlidence Taerale 4 describe the magnitié of an effect (e.g. difference, odd ratio, #6 when you want to dest 4 single sample. i For confidence interval Ben Mt to account a bot the eg Ae sl SSB ge) a ee sample “TBE! associated with oulco™") —tind statistics. = 58 i Long Answer Question ep 7,U. Exam Questions Set - 2017 Group 8’ [2x10=20] lis were obtained from a sample of five red in thousand rupees, d numbers of children 7, The following résul families on their savings (¥) meast (%,) in thousand rupees an income x) - ae y= 338 SX,Y = 330 5X, =40 YX = 938 USY = 97 rests Sxpetss | GK i. Estimate the linear regression equation of saving on income and number of children, Interpret your coefficients. ii, Calculate income elasticity of saving, Solution, Hore, we have given, whore, nistands to number of families X, stands to income of families X, stands for number of children Y stands for savings of families 4. Finding of the regression equation of saving on income and ‘number of children with interpretation of cooficients, Lot the tis sat regression mode of Y on X, and X. be. 59gen a Yoarb,X, +b.X, 4) ‘where, a, b, and b, regression parameters. estimated by minimizing the sum of square of the denn, Z0-9 ie. minimize Se Minimizing De*=S(¥-¥)' by using calculus, we gy) 4 following three equations. EY = na + BEX, + DDK, oessee(2) =X, AEX + BD XY + BEX YX, renee) 2h = aX, + bEXX, + bEXD (4) ‘Now substituting given values in above normal equations wee 98 = 58 + 40b, + 15by... (5) 330 = 400+ 39ab, + 113b, 97 = 15a + 113b, + 58b, 6) (7) 'g equation (5) by (6) after multiplying eqv* Now, subtratin, i (6) by 8, we get $80 408 +3986, +113, : 7 ‘Again, s950= 5008 +5070, +1695, 2200, sao = 50084520 3090 = 00K 4520b.22: 41070 = 550b, ~508b,. (9) subtracting equation (9) by (8) after multiplying equation (6) by 1505 and (9 by 7. We get, 413190 = 9090, -3535b, (0) we get, putting value of by in equ: 118b, 7b: 18 x 1.0763 ~ 7b, 109.3734-7b; Tq = 19.3734 26 7b, = -6.6206 15266 7 0.9468 Again, for value of‘, putting value of both by and by, in equation be (8) we gat, 38 = 58+ 40b, +15b; 38 = Sa + 40 x 1.0763 + 15(-0.9468) or, 38 = Sa + 43.052 14.199 5a or, 38 -43.052 + 14.191 aEE 1.8204, by = 1.0763 and by = ~0.9466. Thy, regression equation of savings (Y) on income (X,) and numig childron (X,) is given by substituting the values ofa, b, ani, equation (1). Then we have, Y = 1.8294 + 1.0763X, - 0.9466X, Interpretation of the Results I there is neither income (X,) nor number of chile than the savings of family is Rs, 1.8294 thousand, as sve by intercopt of the estimated equation, there is increase in income number of children (X, explains that saving off thousand rapes. (%,) by ote thousand ke lunchanged than by = 1 mily increases by Rs. 10% "there is increase in number of children (X,) by one ket income (x, le 3) unchanged than by = ~0.9466 explains OS Saving of family decreases by 0.9406 thousand rupees. 4. Calculating income elasticity ly of saving ng income clastic of saving (oy th rand Droportionse ok i (0) can be defined ast te eee savings (¥) divided by the proportion mara fa fncone (XW an be wrnion ety x x a wud [ond] of saving at their mean values wy ‘um, tocome laity of saving can be f and Yin the above formals, we calculated substituting the values of Xt gel, 8 = 1.07605 = 1492 ny = 1.192 by 1.132 percontages Z 1d_vice- “3Salat the moan and variance of olson dstibag> Solution, Polsson distribution isa discrete probability disteibuton fy counts of rare events that occur randomly in a given inten timo. It was discovered by the French mathematician six, Donis Poisson (1781-1040) who published it in 1837, Poisson distribution is appropriate especially when probabiliy Occurrence of an event is very small (i.e. p< 0.05) and the ‘number of possible cases is greater than or equal to 20 {te 1 20), 1t deals with the evaluation of probabilities of rare eve Such as number of bike accidents on road, earthquake in police encounters in city, births in hospital, etc, Properties an Mean 1, The number of trial (n) is Infinitely large, — 2 Tho mean = np is constant and if mean is known that pal FO" can be obtained. y : BE) = Sx’p(x) 3. The mean and ‘ariance of poisson distribution are same i = nyt ety! Astle ap = fet oe + a 4. Donoted as X ~ . Donoted as X ~ Py) ay BOT OTH emus zope elculatng the mean and vatiance of poisson distribution UE dlscreto random variable that follows pols ‘hen probability ot succoss is given by 65 64TS me cariables fs P(X, ¥) then the mathematical expectation of X etglet suf tepet feelers] wgnetne ule + pot) B(x) = xP(X) =otmorn + ee oer 40012 +0018 47002 easy) Bengt G Now pulting value of B(X") in variance formula, we get, = \o7+68x2+69%3+70%2] rs Voriance = B(X*) ~ (00)* [67 +1364207 +140] 3 = Ht + 0)? oe = Lasso - 3 ‘Therefore, under poisson distribution —— Mean = Varanco = 208) = 00.75 inches : : +B) Covariance of X and ¥ i, As wo know, "From the following abl VOig- Sep Mowing table of Joint probability distrbullon. Weight inky Height in inches x) COMEND= BOK ¥0~ 800.200 Ms 87 oh gy gg Tif find cov, ¥), we have to find EX, ¥) and EC) St Weg 9 : Finding EY) and E(X, ¥): . 4 @ ° BM) = Dry) 2 o o ms “se : = sd pso2 ean on? £9. 9 2/8 a Sep tsang aaNG 4 51 +52x2459%3454%2] 9) etx andy be the di ! and weight iscrele random variables denoting He ih rspectively ee ieee he Joint probability of thes: {51 4108+ 159 +108]Aiaaa 8 = 52.75 BY) = 52.75 Now, BX. Y) = DYXY KY) 4 1 glo417+7072410971+ 7560] 1 229021 8020 = 3627.5 Now, substituting values of E(x) and E(x, ), CovlX, ¥} = BCX, ¥)~ EOQ.ECY) 627.5 ~ 68.75 x 52.75 we obtain, 627.5 - 3626.56 = 0.9975 ‘Therefore, the required CovX, Y) = 9.9975 1 2 3 075145 + 68%52x= + 69x53x2 4 70x54: 8 3 a gl07*51+00152%2660%5343470%542) egy ore a Group 8 7 pa vulation consists of five numbers 2, 4, 6, 8, 10. nee a a em ton fe mean is population mean. ___mean is population means ‘Solution: He have given the population, which consists of five 2 Here, we have numbers 2, 4,6, 8 and 10. Fist, ze two which can be drawn from Finding all possible samples of size two which population without replacement: Accordliig to the question, Population size (N) = 5 and, Sample size (n) = 2 Yo in simple random ‘The total number of samples of size tw ph sampling without replacement is given by: 3a = 10 different samples can be drawn. “It can be shown in following sampling distribution, Sample No. [Samples [Sample mean (X) Probiy = 2 ht 24) 7) > oy 2 q P (26) 4 =p And; mean of sample mean. ®) 8 2a) 5 4 (2 10) 3 7 f [ao 5 - 6 (4,8) 6 P (4, 0) 7 i miple mean (3X) = population mean (wo PEt te or, R(X) = Ht yo, 6=6 hy ‘Mean of sample mean is equal to population mean. a — So From the following correlation matrix find rys_ and Rass 4 0.75 0.92 1 0.65 N=5anda=2 1 i os + Samples are drawn with Solution : i hout replacement is “C; ways Web =_3 7 fehave, 2) é 1 078 0.02 0 ways . Correlation matrix is,| 1 0.65 Population m, i tan (y)= 2°44 6+ 0410 3 n 7Let us assume X,, X, and-X; correlation coofficient are; are given variable, then th, ‘a= contelation coefficient between variable X, and x, ty = correlation coefficient between variable X, and X, ‘y= correlation coefficient between variable X, and i, Now, comparing the given matrix with correlation matrix, Ta Sa Sa] we got, Fa = 075, n= 0.92, try = 0.65 Finding partial coefficient between X, and X, keeping Xs is given by, 0.92-0.75 0.65 Nr Winding multiple correlation coefficient X, on X; and Xs is 8h by, tt ~ 2a fy R= ae (o7ey +(oosy —240.79x0.65%0.02 ~ 1-(0.92) fosaas ro.aaas— 0.007 . 1=0.0404 088 0.1606 nse: = 08730 = 07570 Ram = 0.7570 = 0.7570, it indicates the combined ig ‘ variables. Specifically Rz1s indicate : correlation of given three vi ieee a 0.92-0.4875 X, and X, as independent variable. | eats Discuss the general procedures for test eae aare Solution [Peas ee the answer of QNo, 18 of so 2038] aoa N ' = 0200 0M shows th ost thal there Is lowar degrees bation vs slower dares gst constant. wiable X, and X, when X, is kee?! n 3ae a dstry, 200 workers employed Tor a spedi> Th were classified according to their performance and ir. ‘The data are summarized as below: ‘Training Performance Good Not Good To Received 120 30 1 Not received 10 40 ” Total 130 70 20 ‘Test whether training received and performance of the wei are associated with each other or not. Solution : Step 1: Setting hypothesis 8) Nall hypothesis (ig) : There is no any signifi: ‘elalonship between training received and performance b) Allerative hypothesis (H,) There is signifi ‘elaionship between training recéived and performance Stop 2 : Level of significance Since oh Guestion is not clear about the level of significant’ ® consider commonly used level of significance ie. 5%. Step 2 : Setting ine degre of freedom The degree of freadom of above given distribution fs (—1Ne~1) (@-12~1 tea =4 where 1S no. of rus ™ zo. of columns step 4. Computing the 72-test/ratio: Itcan be calculated as below: frraining Performance Good [Not Good “[_ Total ce ‘Nat received aaa cease eessinD ee) rota easel ners 9 bat |nmas 70 a eee Now, ‘The expected value can be measured as, RTxCT E where, R co GT = Grand total Raw total Column total 50120) cia) = (150390) 190) B10) = OO*180)/ = 325 s0%0)/ aos B40 = 1*7Yfog = 528 yon = 97-5 75Again, o Of TOR] Oa 0-8/7 feo 75 | 225 | 50625 520 fo | 325 | -22.5 | 506.25 15.57 fs0 | 82.5 | 22.5 | 806.25 9.64 wo | 17.5 | 225 | 506.25 es ONL = s0as 59,39. ‘Stop 5 : Finding the critical value. ‘The oitial value sear me can be nd ut rom x distbutlon bea ie with the degree of freedam 1 and lst Step 6 : Compare and Decision Making ‘Since the calculated value of y2 tabulated value of 32 t jected. Hance we can s between training receive tof 1 = 89.39 greater than that 41. Therefore null hypothesis (8) ay that there is significance relations id and performance. © rm ° Find the mean and variant! Solution ____—~ [Please see ansiy Wer of No.7 of set 2015) % eS aa 4-7 What is sampling? Discuss the importance of sampling, ‘o._What is sampling? Discuss the importance oS — Solution, Sompling is defined as the selection of some part ofan totality om the basis of which a judgement about totality is made. In other Mrords, itis the process of obtaining information about an entire population by examining only a part of it. {In most of the research and surveys the usual approach happens to be to make generalizations or to draw inferences based on samples about the parameters of population from which the samples are taken, ‘Therefore, sampling is regular phenomenon for all of us and for all the economic agents. The resoarcher quite often selects only a few items from the population/universe for his study purposes. {All this is done on the assumption that the sample data will ‘enable him/her to estimate the population parameters. The items that are selected is technically called a sample, their selection process or technique is called sample design and the survey conducted on the basis of sample is described as sample survey. Sample should be truly representative of population characteristics without any bias 60 that it may result in valid and rollable conclusions. The concept of sampling can be clear from the following examples: = Accook can taste a spoon of rice oF vegetable whether, itis properly cooked or not = A pathologist or doctor examines a few drops of blood te draw the conclusion about the blood constitution of the whole body. = A businessman gives order to the only small sample of the same commodity. Sampling is one of the most importont techniqu: esearch, The imporlance of sampling is explained below in Points:- commodities by examining Jo used in 7yg ce 1. Economy Taking 2 sample involves observing directly a small portion population. So, a sample study is usually less expensive tha, census study. However, sampling can save money as the peru: coat for sample units is higher than that of the per unit cad population unit , 2. Time Factor/Greater Speed ae case of sample survey is much less this the information is urgently required. : 3. Wider = rd than that of the census. Therefore, a highly qualifel ie — and excellent instruments can be hired wheres! eth it may be impracticable. Similarly, complet 4. Accuracy ’ Song my eae os sy gel coer Investor. Sine sal hn tha ine ey coming wn information, : ‘ore accurate measurements for a sample conducted by trained and experienc volume of work in a sample survey # "asus, the greater attention can be paid! © that we can have more accurl™ 5. Large population Sampling soma only avail uevey iS not possible, a vey is t 7 Destructive nature of observation 5. is ve in nature like: the ‘When the inspection of objects is destructiv r hlood test, testing Life time of bulbs etc, the complete ble. The sample survey is the only enumeration is not practical mations in such cases. Therefore, sampling Sry to st nf mains th ‘es the destruction of Tomains the only choice when a test involv the item under study. 7. Hypothetical population When the population is hypothetical or inaccessible, the complete enumeration is not possible. Hence, the sample survey isa suitable technique for this. {0 The probability of a bomb hitting a target is 2/0. Three bombs are enough to destroy a pillar. If seven bombs are aimed at the pillar, find the probability that the pillar is destroyed, Solution: Lat a-diserete random variable X denotes the number of bombs aimed at the pillar. Thon, Probability of a bomb hitting a target (p)=2/9 Probability of a bomb not hitting a targot(q) = 1-P By Binomial distribution, the probabilily of x success out of ‘n" ‘als is given by PiXex) <6, Pigs “J.” ”ge ree CCiven thatthe pillar willbe destroyed i atleast 3 bombs the pillar sol least 8 bombs are required to destroy it.’ PIX 2 3): P (X24) = 1-P(Kea) LCI GET “FG = 1-]tx1x0.172147%2x0.2213 4214 «0,204 Pro2aiae21x 4 x0.2046 4-(0.1721+0.344240,2951], = 10814 = 0886 Solution, [Please soe answer Wer of Q. No. 10 of set 2015) Solution, lose ler ave question) co @ No. 11 ot sat 2015 for it a ‘The theory of FY of estimation is d is divided into fo two parts: 80 i) Point estimation fi) Interval estimation 1) Point estimation latistic which is used to estimate |A single value of sample st vation. faknown population parameter is known as point es Semple variance (SIs point estimation of population variance ) is point estimate of population mean (1) (o2), sample mean (X sample proportion (P) is point estimate of population proportion © For example 4) the numbor of subscribers of Namaste Mobile in the noxt year will be 30,00,000 estimated by general manager of ‘opal Telocom is an example of point estimation. Ii) Wf national planning commission estimates that average cexponditure of houschold is Rs. 2000 then it is the point estimation Point estimation is either right or wrong so itis often insufficient and probability of being the right estimate is not assigned in case ‘of point estimation. So we cannot certain about the estimate reliability. ML, Interval estimatio Tn point estimation, a single value of a statistic is used! as an estimate of the population parameter. But point estimate may not exact reprosent the population parameter which make the tale unsatisfactory. To overcame this drawback we nvod. a range of values which is used to estimate population parameter known as interval estimation. In other words, estimating the Value or proportion parameter in a certain range is called interval Saimation that is interval estimation consis of two numerical Values (ie, lower value and upper value) under which the Population lies in given level of confidence.jose As the value of point estimate Mctustes from sample interval estimates are preferable to point estimates, “Aa interval estimate indicates the accuracy of an estimate oe the interval estimates have an advantages over the pointe oa as i provides a measine of degree of uncertainty in tose probability attached to the interval. i For example, the number of subscribe ample of subsrbors of Namaste Mobis next years will be 30,00,000 to 40,00,000 estimated ie ab} mangers of Nepal Telecom isan example of interval esti 13, How do you estimate the parameters of simple Tinew Fegression model using least square method? Solution See [Please refer answer of Q. No, 4 of sot 201: cy [Part -B : Solution of Chapter wise Possible Questions] Unit 1 : Probability and Probability Distribution {0 Thrwe machines A, Band C produce respecti 3 ‘and 20% of the total number of items of a factory. The se of defective output of these machines arc .d at random, ty that i we porcentag respectively 3%, 4%, and 52%. Ian item seto« js found to be defective. What is the probabil achine B produced Slaton: Hor, given Probability that selected from machine A, P(A) = 0.5 B, P(B) = 03 Probability that solected from mac Probability that selected from machine C, P{C) = 0.2 Let, D be the event of defective item, P{D/A) = Probability that defective article from machine A = 39% = 000 (OM) = Probability that defective article from machine B = 49%6= om PIC) = Probability that defective article from machine C = 596 = os Wan item selected at random, 1s found to be defective, the robabilty that it was produced by machine B is, P(B).P(B/D) Pew) = PEALPID/A)+ PB). PIB/D) +P(CIPC/D) - 0.3%0.04 0.5x0.0340.3%0,0440.2%0.05 ~0012 ase a3yp 3243 7 Hence the probability of getting selected item should be prodane by machine ——————— 2. Five men in a company of 20 are graduates. 13 mean selected at random, what is the probability that they are i) All non graduate ii) All graduate Atleast one graduate iv) At most 1 graduate Solution, The tolal number of men is 20 out of which 3 men ao lob selected. Tho total combination for 3 men out of 20 can b selected by *C, ways: 2.x 2 eo-ay5 - 2 vi 2Oxt9x16«171 Wis} = 2010418 ae 1140 ‘The exhaustive numberof cases ( i) Allnon graduate ‘There are 15 non 15 can be selected 140. ‘graduates in a company 3 non-graduates OU by "C, ways, a (5-33! a4 agx1x 1312 7213 age1dx13 oa = 455 Favourable number of eases (1) ‘thorelore, probability ofall are non graduates is Pall non graduates) = “oy ag 455 ino All graduates 23 graduate out of 5 can be selected by Goi Sx4x3%2! 2st = Beas 2 = 10 Favonrable events = *C So, probability of all are graduate is Potent) = 2a 40 a9 au im ili) At least one graduate ‘The probability of at least one graduate can be obtained by Pfat least one graduate) =1-P(no graduate) 455 a0 1140-455 110 605. nao tea, Tha petals ofa _ of at most one graduate is P(at most one gradual = P(no graduate) +P(one, ‘Braduate) ‘ : = = 2S, G2% ne ae 1140" 1140 = 280 pa._F in oe : iis and actor bog Fag canals ¥ white and 6 rd bal Aas comin red balls. A bal s drawn from each ‘earn the probity that ) Both arered. ji) one red and one white. ‘Solution, ‘The total number of balls in first bag “the total number of balls in second bag = 7+8 = 15 balls, 546=11 balls ‘Then, 6 “The probability of getting @ red ball from first bag is POR)= 57 “The probability of getting @ white ball from first bag P(W,) un ‘The probability of getting red ball from second bag P(R.)= 75 ‘The probability of getting a white ball from second bag P(W.) = 7 iB Now, 4) Both are red Since the events are independent. The probability of getting both red balls is PQBoth are rod) = P{R, and Ry) = PRIXPR) 88 "ts a7fi) one red and one white The probability of geting one red and one white balls fs ‘000 "3 Plone ml and one white) =P(Red from 1st bag and White 8300 1 2 bag) or PCWhite from Ist bog and Red fom Zu hg) MP * yg 2 fractions of defective ealewlators produced by the thtew PAR, and W, oF W, and We ha = POR) from a day's total product found We defective. Fn wal fen wh have come, 1 £0.02 +4 40.022 o.02+5 Solution, 2017 vag Let Dy, Deand Da ire the events of pe scond ant aa the events of prodtetion of first second “spectively and A be the event of getting a defect Similarly, 0030004500 on00 RoJaj= PIDLDPIAID,) EP(D)PIAID) ‘The total value of production Probabitity of getting ev a third plant are S¥eR"S Of production of first, second A coyg a Axa.02 3 ‘nani =0.305 Also, _ DPA/D,) Pibyaj= PDIPASD,) ‘A= sp \PIAID) 5454 Since, the value of P similarly, “the probability of one black ball drawn ie. PC 24845 = aaa 20 Fo Algo, ‘The probability of two black balls drawn Le. POX=2) = we. (D/A) has largest value, so it is probali axe Banal probability ma able kes the any infinite number or It the value of random variable voli of random variable ranges from cortain limit is known a continuous random variable, Let as consider that, contingous random variable X can take possible outcomes of any experiments Jn cortain limit thon probability density fanetion is given by, fs jroxs hore, -20 $x 00 tation matical Exp fon is the expected value of random xathematical expectation is Mathematical expecta Variable. “The calculation sssociated with follow of incase of discrete of discrete random variable (S) lel us consider that, ifthe value PEXI=fis) then the with ts probability fnetion Mathematical expoctation is defined as, 7BOX)= fl) 0 0 4) Ply<1/2} Mean and f) Covariance between (xy) Hence the function serve as pal i Solution: termination of value of PEX-<1/2, Y=12) 8) The function will serve as pdf it b)_Determinatio > Mxy0as C(x y720 ifc20 =f fom sytnvtx a {fssnac=1 Now, {ftssriace f fe syne - 103 lozee p(a/aex<3/a}=0.45 4) Detormination of value of P(Y<1/2) 2 f fe sy navex }, Dolemination of value of Pa/a ea] Cov. (xy) =E(xy) - Blx). Bly) 12 A box contains 100 starline ball pens 20 of which & defectives. If 5 pens are selected at random, find probability that 1) All are defectives All are good Atleast one is defective Solution. {et A discrote random variable X denotes number of delectit Pens while selecting § pens from a box Probability of getting defective (py = 20.1 100 "5 Probability of not geting defective (g) = 4 5 Number of rial (a) <5 ‘As random variable Probability of getting x iG 1 Pbability of alae defective ig ey X follows Binomial distributios- ™ eCeSS out of n trials is Pixex) ~ro(2 Pose: 4 5 of! AS 108 a8 Probability of al are good is eyes" 5) \5, (ay _ 1024 “\s) “sna5 'v) Probability of getting al least one is defective is 9 s ‘8, Out of 800 Families with five children each, how many ould you expect to have: 1) 3 boys i) 5 girls ii either 2 or 3 boys Assume equal probabilities for boys and girls. Solution, Number of families (N) = 600 Number of children (n) =5 Frobability of success on each trial (P)= 1/2 Pa 1yon1/2 109ne yr Let X be the discrete random variable th distribution, at follows the bi Under binomial distibut i “ bution probability of X success ou oss al (n~x}iet Jey mala) |) Probability of having 3 boys is spy BBN 2, Sede! (1! aeavat "(ay P=: Crys Pq 6 Srl: Pixs 6 Expected ‘umber of families with three boys NvP0ke3) ability of having #! 192. sxpectod number of families with 5 girls 2 NxP(X=0) 5 1 = B00 e005 ii) Probability of getting either 2 or 3 boys is P{x=2) oF P(x=3) = P(X=2) + PIK=3) ym =20{ 2) 32 Expected number of families with two or three boys = ee eter 1H. Tithe mean and standard deviation of binoms) distribution given by 3 and 1 respectively then find the probability of —_selting a) POX > 1) b) PIX <2) Sulton, Mere given, Mean t and ' $Dox) = Yipg = oa wtq=19 and hence P=1-q=1-1/3=2/9 Also, np=3 or, 1.2=3 or, n= 4525 Now, Pt) = 1-PEK<1) =1-FK=0) veld =PX=0) + P(X=1) + P[X=2) oaosree(2) 2} v0(2} (2) 3s} “«(5)(3) oon i 141. '5X0.66x0.0123+10%0,44%0.037 0011 +0.04050 0.1628 = ose Se X) 2 distribution when X 2, Xix80 0 Now, 023 028) Plz > 2.) = 0.25 % 05~p(0 0.95 that arise in practice, stich as the heights or weights oF ‘people, the ‘oa annual sales of fem, exam scores ete. x follows the normal distribution Transfor aX distribution into % distribution whe distribution approxinya Now, Pls < x3) > 0.95 on 05 54 M0 < zen) x94 0.95 Wo say that random variable © WO 045 0 ty fj et pwlt apg exe A> 68 rom (Com the probity abe)‘This is bell shaped curve, we wile XN (u 0) which ig an X follows tho normal distibution with mean and ag, CMSA 4 Nonmal curve fi) deviation. The noaal distribution canbe describe en by the wo parameters and os always, the moan iste ale of the distribution and the standard deviation isthe mec, the variation around the mean. The shape of normal dite canbe graphicilly shown in following igure, an and mode of normal distribution is Normal curve ii) The mean, me coincide at x = ‘whogo, menn=median=mode =x =p iv) The height of normal curve is maximum at mean, value (4.2. . oe = ) Graphically Normal curve @>) ‘The normal distribution is symmetric about p. Therefore, be lo the left of jis equal to th Characteristiesfoat es of normal probability distribution The main fates of norma y distnbuton y= ae al probability distibut tn) = re 5) Tolalawa under normal probability curve equal to. Tho graph of function (x) is bell shaped. Graphically Graphically Normal curve f(x) ii) The normal curye es curve is symmetrical about limit x = 4 (29) " 123 v2i) The value of normal distibution function f3) cing negative vill Normal curve is asymptotic to base line, Graphically Normal curve fx) = au + So, normal curve never touches the base line in infinite value wil) The ordinate al the mean of the normal curve divest ‘otal area under the normal curve into two equal pt each part is of area 0.5 is) As the distance of the curve from the mean increas Cur, approaches closer and closer to the x-axis but 1 touches it, 21. A multiple test contains 6 questions, Each question BS! answers of which only one is the correct answer Student as no idea as to which of the alternatives pentane: The student rolls a fair dice Hace 1 oF 25 wp he selects answer (a) If face 3 or 4 show up hes thet). face 5 or 6 show up he selects answer the probability that he wi get ') Bxactly 4 corect answer Hi) All wrong answer ii) At mast to Solution, AS ston in question, Question out of whi c of ‘which only one answer is cored! # i Therefore, the proba j d abil ‘ aes question can be given ass of getting a correct ans 0 there are 3 alternative answers | 124 proboblity of correct answer (p) = probability of wrong answer (q ‘Allernative answers = 3 umber of trails (n) = 6 Latus consider that, X be the random variable for correct answer. |) Bxaclly 4 correct answer ‘The probability of exactly 4 corroct answer: io. x=) = veld) , Tw = 0.082 ‘Theteore, probability of exacly 4 correct answer = 0.082 1s #) All wrong answers ‘The probability of all wrong answers iy = 0.087 Therefore, probability ofall wrong ansiver = 0.087 Y) AL most two correct answers 125‘Tho probability of al most two correct answers: =0}+P(x=1)4P(x=2) Fe er oGey = teh 6b y 79 "3" 203 io. Pox s2) 153x418 om 84, 192, 240 ran" 709 "729 396 7 = 060 ‘Therefore, probability of ‘al most two correct answer = 0.68. ly of getting between 3 and 6 best hy using 22, Find Uy inclusive i ete ts inoeeial see Given, probability of gating head (p) = 1/2 Probability of geting alg) = 4-p = r-4/0 = a ‘otal number of tal (a) = 10 9) applying binomial di tribution Unier binomial di binomial dstibution the probability of geting beta and 6 heads (nclosve : oh ) in 10 Loses ofa fair coin is given bY 16 nya ye 1 s210% me "IGF 210, 252 | 210 od” 1024 * 1024 = 07734 1). Applying normal approximation to binomial distribution ‘swe know the normal distribution isa continuous distribution, then, the obtaining between 3 and 6 heads (inclusive) can be considered as 2.5 to 6.5 (subtracting 0.5 from lower limit Le. 3- 5= 25 and adding 0.5 in uppet lin ie. 6+0.5 =6.5) ‘Thus, the required probability is P(2.5 x $6.5) ‘where, » = mean of binomial distribution ASn= 10 and p =1/2 then, q=I-p = 1-1/2 = 1/2 8D = 10x12 Hm °* Sandard deviation of binomial distribution = Pq warSS = 095 Pas sx<6. P(-1.58 <2<0.95) PE-1.5852.<0) +P(022¢0,95) 4429+ 0.3289 [using normal curve tables] = ome rofone « bes quatre, the value of probability obtained sO" ‘stelbution are nearly equal. So the difference bel"? ‘values obtains! from both disteibution is negligible Je Kathmandu Municipality installed 2000 Tight bulbs in the * Street of New Road, If these bulbs have average life of 1000 burning hours with how many bulbs are expected to fail in {less than 700 hours {i) more than 1200 hours i) between 700 and 1300? Solution, Lat mean= u and sd.= o then, life of bulbs (x) is normally distributed as, X-N (14, 0°) where, = 1000 hrs = 200 hrs 1000 2 XoH_X=1000 normal distribution! 200 ‘less than 700 hours 700-1000 200 ‘when x=700, then 2= ae Poe < 700) = Pls <2 €-1.5) + Pee 1200) = Plo1200) Taian dire ad iii) between 700 and 1300 variance (o*)= 25 cm? zm a P(700 < x < 1309) and mean (x) = 165 cm, Pas Improper choice of sampling technique fe causes the error in a ing methods like simple pling, purposive Improper choice of sampling techniqui pcs There are various types of samp! random sampling, stratified sampling, quota sam 135= sampling, snowball sampling etc. and every method gy appropriate in somo cases than the other. So, proper + Should be used while selecting a sampling technique in ag decrease sampling error. + Improper substitution If some difficulties arise in enumerating a particular unit included in the samples the investigator usually subsi, convenient member of the population. Such substitution ke some error because of difference among the characters substituted unit and original unit > Improper choice of sampling units Result ofthe sampling study mostly depends upon. the sal unit. So proper method should be used while soldi, sampling unit, Improper choice of statistic bonis method consists in estimating the parameters ee lation using appropriate statistic computed from the s! a neroper choice of the estimation technique might intros! Tot For Instance, variance of observation in lange sample pores nF and variance sample 5 in small Bx} + ICS is used in case of small sampl™ error arises, > Variability of the population amoling ero also de #sser the variability, jy Non-sampling errors iv ends on the variability of the pool }esser the error and vice-versa Processi non-sampling asec nd and analysis of the data ar '*" on-sampling errors are not tl 136 fas « consequenens of certain factors whieh shance rather it arises ® present both in sro within human control. This type of errors a Consus survey's and in sample survoys. The Iikely lo increase with increase in sample size, while sampling sample siz sampling, error is error decroase with increase ‘The main sources of non-sampling errors are > Faulty planning It Jeads to arise eiror on data collection, 1m design, choice of sample unit, vague and faulty definition of population, incomplete population frame ete. Improper planning, also may leads to the improper choice of statistical units to be used. As a rosult, the collected data will be inconsistent ancl insufficient with respect to objectives of sample survey, imple > Observational errors due to defective measurement technique. Errors introduced in editing, coding and tabulating the results of the study, ss of the Porsonal bias of the investigator in the differents study, > Non-response bias of the respondent, > Lack of trained and qualified investigation >> Publication errors etc. eee 2 Sampling is a necessity for any inve Solution, Sampling is a method or process of data collection in which ¢ ‘collected from the representative part of the whole population It sampling method, some solected loments (samples) are 137——— id used to collect the data and informatig smal, Acak an asta spoon of ceo vegetables iy is properly cooked or not, @ pathologist or doctor examine draw the conclusion about the i drops of blood to consitution of the whole body, from a cup of tea a lei determines the quality of the brand of tea, When some of the elements aze selected with the inten finding out somelhing about the population from which thy: take, the group of element fs known asa sample and this: of selection is called sampling. For instance, if we have tote! defectiveness of light bulbs manufactured by a factory the can ake any certain number of such light bulbs, say 100 and test them, These 100 prices of the bulbs make a samgl! the process of selecting these bulbs out of all bulbs is! sampling. According to Goode and Hatt "A. small representation ol whole is the sample," coxamined an Diagrammatcally :) Population dents the poplalit Sample (n denotes the sample si) Population: Ii 7 that posses son defined as a complote set of (persO™°,. y the number ii common characteristic under the st ‘ie of elements in aoe eines Popton and desta by population determi Sample : He A sal pt of te option, which © ter numb of elements i OFelemenisis called the sample whichis 40” 4 ii? ofsampling is used to verify the census survey rst cijetves of samplingsample survey abjective of sampling procedure is to study about the ‘The tative units from the concerned universe by selecting represent ion through minimum resources viz: cost, ime and popu without Iosing the accuracy, Some major objectives of energy sample survey ae: 5 To oblain maximum possible information about the universe through selected samples. + To oblain the limits of accuracy of estimate of the population parameters. + To Lost the significance of population parameters on the of sample stalistics. ¢ basis Importance of sampling As we know, a census survey is the method of data collect which information is collected from each and every unit of population, This method is expensive, Jabour requiring and time emsuming, This method is imposible to conduct if the population sii infinite, I the measuring of units i destructive in nature, the census method is impracticable, This method is fv from sampling erors but not re from non-sampling ero small part is selected from the population and examined than it is called sample survey. A sample survey wl be less expensive than a consus survey and the desired information will be chtained in less time. It is most important that a degree of teuray of result i also maintained. Sometimes, the technique ls. jon in Sample surveys have those potential advantage Over ° complete Survey, > Greater scope ~ shorler time period ~ Greater economy ~ High quality of work 139+ Actual appraisal of reliability ‘as wo know, complete survey is impossible in fy.” condition: + when size of population is large > when population possess homogeneous characters ~ > wwhon almost accuracy is not required + when census is impossible etc. : If population is infinite, then investigation through theca survey of population is completely discarded, at that sue sampling technique is only one alternative for instance. ‘case, we have lo draw a small portion of the population #2 the conclusion about population under study. And sf group will possess the same characteristics in thel © proportion as the total population Justification for sampling is necessary for any Research wt S regan thas a greater ‘scope than complete survey 9% ddepently of information by virtue: of its flexibilit? ‘aptabilty and the possibility of studying the int of various factors, : degblng technique require highly advanced 2%, Seu Secutng it adequately, Thus © a costo a san et than a complete survey: Lagat) Survey cosate il be mach Jess than that of # ting th same items of inquiry : ~ I sampling techn; much asc’ ¢e*BIAUG, itis also possible to, pro“ : than in complete surve i sampling pro : < Adopt a eagerec’® 4 simple survey makes i Py contol over Samplin ‘he collection and processing of det cantNg process. cons eo ated 0 the umes less time # Complete survey ofthe populati®® survey procedure by exerci the Sampling technique remains the only way when population contains infinitely many members because the complete Survey is not possible in such case. For exemple, the number of stars in the universe, fishes in the sea. Sampling is the only one way, when a test involves the destruction of the item under study. Complete survey of the population is inappropriate for the hypothetical population. In such case, sampling is only one alternative to got information about the population. A highly skilled or qualified human resources and advanced instruments can be used in a sample survey, but it may be impracticable in consus survey. Inconclusion, we can say, a carefully designed and scientifically exacted sample survey gives results, which are more reliable than thoso obtained from complete census, because researcher can ninimized, sampling error by using his skills and technique but +on-sampling error can't be minimized by the researcher because italso increases, when sample size increase. What are the principle steps regarding a sample survey? Solution ‘s8 preliminary to a discussion of the Zole that theory plays in a 'mple survey, it is useful to describe briefly the steps involved in Planning and execution of a survey. he principle steps in a sample survey are grouped somewhat ‘ttarily under 9 headings. a oy a Objectives of the survey * frst step when assessing a sample survey is to well identify Beneral objectives of the survey. The objectives of any Sati cel investigation should be clearly defined. Inthe absence Iti "uly defined objective, survey will be misleading and it ‘ately leads to wrong conclusion. ui2 ‘The word population is used to denote the aggregate fiom wis tte sample is chosen. The population to be sampled sing cnincide withthe population about which information is waa ‘The population isto be clearly defined after setting the objeais 1 population is not clearly defined there might be possiiliy ‘unnecessary inclusion and exclusion of clements into ty population, 3) ‘entifying the size of population Sampling frame {Wis list ofall the sampling units of the population of intore.b other words, sampling frame defines a get of elements frou whi 8 researcher can select a sample of the target population. Ti sample frame should be accurate, free from duplications 2x! omissions, up to date and the units should be identified wile ambiguity 4) Data tobe collected the Nol to verify that all the data are relovant to the purposisel ie ue) and that no essential data are omitieg. Oni lel Gata should be collected in order to achieve the objective of sample survey. 9) Drafting instrument of data collection ‘There may be a cho approsch to the collected is deck ‘westionnare, Aestions with no disc : lon oF an interviewing process owed, tant tthedle should be mele on te bas ent MOL tothetnetam ieee eee bs respondents. So, Senet rafting o rine Sh, greater atennnt® ° AStionnaire requtre ex! 2 of measuring instrument and method Population. Once nature and type of data 18 led. The surve sel vee 4 Selection of sample design isa variety of sample design by which the sample may be "pasted (simple random sample, strated random samp. two Sage sampling ote) according to tho nature, time andl cost of the turey, All tho sample designs will not be equally important for a anicular survey. Proper selection of sampling design yields nal results 30 it s very important in sample strvey. 1) Pilot study Wis @ guiding survey, which is to be done before starting the najpr survey. Such pilot study examines the appropriateness of schedule, questionnaire and overall. methodology. It helps to carrect the existing weakness in the methodology. 8) Organization of fieldwork ma survey, enumerators and other fold staffs must receive ‘ining in the purpose of handling the problems and survey. Suvey conducted by such trained personnel helps to reduce ‘smpling error that may arise due to non-response, Plan or ‘ramowork must be made for adequate supervision which helps to ‘luce sampling error. 9) Summary and analysis of data "Usthe lst step of sample survay. It involves the following steps. °) ating the collected data in the hope of at last of deleting data that are obviously erroneous. }) Tabulating the available raw data, 5 9 Analyzing the data by using appropriate statistical tots 9 Summary and conclusion on the basis of collected ‘formation 143