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Final Paper: Permafrost: An Unknown Threat

Joshua J. Santos
University of Arizona
POL 583A
Dr. Saskia Popescu
December 19th, 2021
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ABSTRACT

A significant threat to global health securities is the thawing or melting of the

permafrost worldwide. Trapped inside the permafrost are harmful dangers to humans, such as

frozen viruses or gases. These pose a serious risk to the health of humans and should be given

more attention than they are currently receiving. This is especially important in today’s

environment as temperatures rise due to climate change. The rise in temperatures is causing the

permafrost to thaw and release these dangers. And just like the COVID-19 pandemic has caught

the world by surprise, this could have the same effect if left unattended.
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PERMAFROST: AN UNKNOWN THREAT

The permafrost melting worldwide is a danger to global health securities that seems not

to be discussed enough. However, the permafrost melting could have extreme consequences on

the populations around the world. Underneath the permafrost could be highly contagious and

highly deadly viruses that have laid dormant throughout the years. Other harmful components

underneath and inside the permafrost are methane, carbon dioxide, and mercury. These viruses

could include variants of anthrax and various pox-type diseases. Throughout the history of

humankind, these types of conditions have had devastating effects. If the permafrost melts, the

world may be introduced to infections and other health risks that could potentially affect global

health securities.

WHAT IS THE PERMAFROST?

According to the National Resources Defense Council (NRDC), permafrost is “any type

of ground—from soil to sediment to rock—that has been frozen continuously for a minimum of

two years and as many as hundreds of thousands of years.” This can be on the earth’s surface and

as far down as one mile below the earth’s surface (NRDC, 2021). The most well-known piece of

permafrost is in the Arctic tundra. The permafrost is found mainly in Siberia, Canada, Alaska,

and Greenland (NRDC, 2021). Research shows that the surface of those lands is 85% permafrost

(NRDC, 2021). Additional permafrost locations are found in the Andes, Southern Alps, and

Antarctica (NRDC, 2021).

As for the total size of the permafrost, it is estimated that it is currently 9 million square

miles. To put that into perspective, that is approximately the size of China, Brazil, and Australia
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combined. Due to its size, location, and proximity to people, the hidden dangers of the

permafrost that lie frozen inside pose a severe threat to everyone. Organisms can stay frozen in

the permafrost for thousands of years, waiting to thaw out. Additionally, other hazards such as

methane, carbon dioxide, and mercury are also inside the permafrost, and they all can be harmful

to humans.

THE DANGERS WITHIN

The harmful components within the permafrost range from the possibility of dormant

viruses to dangerous gases. Humankind may not be ready for what the permafrost could unleash

if it were to melt. Serious consequences are possible if the permafrost disappears, and the recent

melting of the permafrost provides a case study for what can happen. In 2016, reindeer in Siberia

were affected by the permafrost melting as it released anthrax back into the wild as it thawed.

The anthrax outbreak caused the death of over 2000 reindeer and one human (Stella et al.,

2020). Scientists believe that anthrax came from warming temperatures that thawed permafrost

in the region and released from a frozen carcass infected (Stella et al., 2020). After it was

released, the reindeer feed on contaminated vegetation, resulting in the reindeer being

contaminated themselves. Luckily, in this case, study, only one human life was taken due to the

anthrax outbreak. However, given the increasing rate at which the permafrost is melting due to

warming temperatures around the globe, human lives are at a greater risk of these dangers.

This is because the frozen soil of the permafrost traps anthrax and becomes storage space

for the spores (Stella et al., 2020). The spores will then be uplifted once the permafrost melts,

pushing the spores around the surface onto vegetation to find a carrier (Stella et al., 2020). Once
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it has found a carrier, it can move from one host to another. Of course, if the host is an animal

such as a reindeer or a sheep. Then, those animals can transfer it to humans through working

closely with the animals or from spores released by the animals. Now, these animals in the

permafrost may not have the most contact with humans, but they can travel and infect other

animals. As animals move around or migrate, they can release more infections in areas where the

human population may be higher.

However, what if something is frozen inside the permafrost was worse than anthrax. That

something could be smallpox. Smallpox has been eradicated from the world, meaning that it is

no longer active in the known world, and no active cases in the world have been identified. The

only smallpox known in the world is in vials and contained by certain countries in the world.

This is for the sole purpose of research and having the virus for possible new vaccines in

combating viruses that may arise that are not currently active in the world.

No corpse or excavation within the permafrost where smallpox was identified has been

observed as the live virus. But this does not mean that the possibility of the virus being live is

impossible; in fact, the permafrost conditions appear to be almost perfect for the virus to sustain

and lie dormant in wait. The low temperatures of the permafrost match the low temperatures

used in lab storage to hold the live viruses (McCollum et al., 2014). This does not mean that the

virus in the permafrost will be active with certainty, but it does showcase that the possibility is

genuine. Scientists from around the world have not ruled out the possibility of the smallpox virus

being active in the permafrost because of the lab-like conditions, and there is a concern based on

the findings of the virus found on unearthed corpses and mummies from some time ago

(McCollum et al., 2014).

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Smallpox would pose a severe threat to the entire world because it is currently eradicated.

The smallpox virus was eradicated due to the vaccination efforts of the world, and now that it is

gone, most countries do not vaccinate for smallpox anymore. There is no valid reason to push the

vaccine on the agenda. After all, it is viewed as no longer needed. Recently, the American

government pushed the only smallpox vaccine during the recent Bush administration for troops

deploying to Afghanistan. And this was only because of the possibility that it could be used as a

biological weapon by terrorists or a rogue nation during the war on terror. However, not to

overlook the probability that a virus will be used as a biological weapon, but a naturally

occurring virus causing a pandemic seems more plausible than a virus being used as a weapon.

But to counter that point, smallpox has been used in human history as a weapon. In 1763, the

British used it to infect Native Americans at Fort Pitt, and the Spanish used it multiple times

during their conquests of the New World. But, looking at smallpox outbreaks and infections in

history, it appears to have caused devastation while naturally occurring more so than as a

biological weapon.

The point of smallpox vaccinations with American troops was due to the possibility of

being used as a weapon and not due to it naturally occurring is only made because it should be

vaccinated against in case it appears again from the permafrost thawing. This would be a good

defense against smallpox if it were waiting in the permafrost, looking for its opportunity to break

through the surface and find a target. With smallpox vaccinations not being a priority today, this

would make the world population vulnerable to a virus that can cause its own pandemic.

Comparing the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic to a possible smallpox pandemic would show

smallpox being much more damaging. Smallpox can cause millions of deaths per year, and about

30% of infected died when it was active (FDA, 2021). Of those infected individuals who
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survived, almost all of them lived the rest of their lives either uncomfortable or with

disfigurements because of smallpox lesions and other health issues caused by smallpox. When

smallpox was active in the world, travel was nowhere close to today, and it still traversed

through the environment from person to person. Like COVID-19, it can be transmitted from

person to person contact or from surfaces that an infected person touch.

Unfortunately, the significant milestone of eradicating a powerful virus such as smallpox

has placed the world population into a complacent mindset. Combine this with the overlooking

attitude of the world of the thawing permafrost is a recipe for disaster. Luckily, the vaccine is

still around today, and one would think it would be easy to get the vaccine rolled out to the

general public if the permafrost released a smallpox virus. And hopefully, the vaccine will be

effective in combating the virus if it were to appear if it were not a new strain resistant to the

current vaccine formula. However, given America’s vocal defiance to the COVID-19 vaccine, it

is hard to feel comfortable with their fight against a super virus such as smallpox. Mixing that

defiance with the easy transmission of misinformation on the internet gives anybody a voice, and

it could be a disaster in combating smallpox. One can already see the posts on social media

stating, “the NEW WORLD ORDER HOAX, an eradicated disease means it no longer exists!!!

This vaccine is all about mind control. Vaccine is for the sheep of a non-existent virus!” This is a

terrifying thought with something as severe as smallpox moving through a population that travels

quickly, fast, and without much resistance in tight cities with large numbers of people.

Now, imagine not smallpox or anthrax, but an entirely new disease or variation of pox

that is unknown to the world and there is no vaccine for. Then, imagine that virus located in an

overlooked portion of the world, such as the permafrost. And last, imagine that virus waking up
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as the permafrost thaws. Unknown, unwatched, and now free to roam through the land to wreak

havoc throughout the world. Once that virus reaches humans, it is quiet during its incubation

periods and then horribly strong when it shows itself.

There is no evidence to suggest that a virus of this type exists in the permafrost or

anywhere else in the world. However, it does not seem so far-fetched that it could happen given

the COVID-19 pandemic. No one saw the exact type of virus coming out of Wuhan. Still, some

did recognize the possibility of a virus causing a pandemic, and they identified that the world

would not be ready for such a pandemic. Even with the lessons learned in the COVID-19

pandemic, it still does not appear that the world would be more prepared for the next pandemic.

Even though there is no evidence that a mega virus exists in the permafrost, there is

evidence that unknown viruses exist in the permafrost. In the Tibetan Plateau, 28 novel viruses

and bacteria were found, along with four types of known viruses (Sayed & Kamel, 2020). Also,

in Greenland, a large amoeba-infecting DNA virus that was 140,000 years old kept its infectivity

and viability (Sayed & Kamel, 2020). Furthermore, unknown viruses could be viewed in frozen

caribou fecal matter that had aged over 700 years (Sayed & Kamel, 2020). Another concerning

virus that was identified to survive freezing temperatures is that of influenza. This is especially

concerning as strains of influenza kill many people per year and were also the reason for the

pandemic in 1918 (Sayed & Kamel, 2020).

Seeing as there are many viruses and bacteria that can survive in freezing temperatures, it

is possible that an unknown virus or an unknown strain of the virus could cause problems for

modern society if it were to reach the more significant populations. However, there is no

evidence that there is a super virus waiting in the permafrost, there is no evidence that there is
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not, and more research needs to be done to find a credible threat. More attention and efforts need

to be given to the permafrost regions to secure our global health securities. An unknown threat

deserves attention because preparedness is vital when combating these viruses or bacteria. Time

and time again, the medical sector has been unprepared for outbreaks, which needs to change to

avoid a great pandemic. The world is even seeing this now in the COVID-19 pandemic of not

being prepared and have seen it before in other situations, including the Ebola outbreak in recent

history.

However, viruses and bacteria are not the only threats hidden in the permafrost that can

be counterproductive to global health securities. There are also dangers in the trapped elements

of methane, carbon dioxide, and mercury. These can have adverse effects on human lives due to

environmental changes or poisoning. Again, it is a threat radiating from the permafrost that goes

largely overlooked.

Starting with mercury, it can be released into the environment through multiple scenarios,

including fire, microbial decay, leaf stomata transpiration, and leaching into groundwater

(Schaefer, 2020). In the thawing of permafrost, the most prevalent cause of release would focus

on microbial decay and leaching into groundwater. Another overlooked scenario would be

miners mining for minerals underneath the earth's surface that would come into contact with the

mercury below. This is especially dangerous as mercury can become a neurotoxin when

combined with organic material (Schaefer, 2020). Even small-scale mining can cause

contamination, and mercury contamination is considered deceitful because it is a silent killer

(Afrifa, 2019). Mercury contamination can then be viewed as extremely dangerous to human

health as it can cause sickness and death.

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Mercury seeping into groundwater can also contaminate groundwater and rivers or lakes

that humans use to drink, fish, and do other activities. Though mercury would be dangerous to

human health, it would need to reach specific emission percentages. Based on models, they

would not even get those levels in the United States EPA model in the Yukon before the year

2300 (Schaefer, 2020). To reach dangerous mercury emission levels in the Yukon, the EPA

model shows that it will not happen until 2050 (Schaefer, 2020). However, even though it does

appear that dangerous levels of mercury are far off into the future, it does not mean that we

should ignore them. And it also does not mean that they are not currently a significant global

health security issue. Instead, the world governments, agencies, and the citizens should still keep

a watchful eye on anything that has concerning effects on the people. Additionally, those are just

models. They can change with further research or a rapid increase in climate change. That is not

out of the realm of possibilities considering the rising temperatures around the globe.

Even more alarming, when the permafrost vanishes, the mercury output into the

atmosphere will continue for centuries (Schaefer, 2020). The Schaefer et al. study had two

possible impacts on human health and environmental health. There would be low impact with

low emissions, and there would be high impact with high emissions. But due to so many factors

that would contribute to the release of mercury, it is impossible to state what would happen with

mercury outputs accurately. Thus, it would be impossible to estimate with certainty that human

health would have significant impacts from mercury contamination. However, it is not

improbable to have a scenario where mercury contamination has tremendous and lasting effects

on global health securities.

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One thing is specific about the relationship between permafrost thawing and mercury.

Humans will mine it as humans need the resources to survive in the world as it is today. And that

mining will create contamination effects that will impact the health of those miners that work

those mines. Thus, it has to be considered a source of danger to global health securities and

needs attention. That attention will need to be directed at the permafrost thawing where this

element sits.

Other harmful substances that lie in the permafrost are methane and carbon dioxide. The

permafrost traps these greenhouse gases and helps our planet stay cool. With the permafrost

thawing, these greenhouse gases are released from their trap and warm the earth. These cause

rising temperatures and significant environmental changes, including drastic changes to

ecosystems. In turn, this warming can cause the permafrost to thaw even faster, beginning the

cycle of harmful release. Many models in the thawing of permafrost account for this cycle of

greenhouse gases releasing and causing the clearances of other greenhouse gas. But when the

permafrost thaws, it causes changes to ecosystems, which is alarming because those models

could have ineffective data that will mix the effects of these greenhouse gases on the

environment.

Someone may wonder what these greenhouse gases have to do about global health

securities, and they would not have to look far to see their devastating effects on human health.

The answer is that greenhouse gases can cause many human health risks. This includes heat

waves, weather changes, droughts, floods, and transmission of communicable infectious diseases

as environments change (McMichael et al., 2006). All of these events can cause harm and death

to humankind.
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These weather changes are currently being seen around the world. As this paper is

written, a tornado outbreak caused death and damage in the Midwest in December 2021. That is

an uncharacteristic time for strong tornadoes to touchdown and create a path of destruction. And

even more unfortunate was that those tornadoes happened in the darkness of night. Though the

Midwest and tornado alley are prepared for tornadoes, they were not prepared for tornadoes to

occur in December. Furthermore, you can be prepared for tornadoes by seeking shelter, but

tornadoes will still cause damage to infrastructure in their path, and there is nothing that humans

can do.

An increase in natural disasters brings on more health hazards in infectious diseases.

Natural disasters, including tornadoes, have been followed by a long list of infectious diseases

such as malaria, dengue fever, meningitis, and tetanus (Kouadio et al., 2012). However, no

extensive in-depth studies have been done to support this claim. But infectious diseases occur

directly in the aftermath of natural disasters. In many cases of natural disasters, there have been

many diarrheal infections in survivors. This may be because the water sources become

contaminated or destroyed during natural disasters. But between the possibilities of outbreaks

and the death that occurs during natural disasters, risks exist that will largely affect the health of

humans, and it will have a significant impact on the health care system as a whole.

Hospitals and clinics currently struggle to provide the best care for their patients. Often,

the equipment in these healthcare facilities is not adequate, or there is not enough to go around.

In the United States, there were massive shortages of personal protective equipment for health

care workers. That is unacceptable, and it is not a promising outlook for the future if another

unknown infectious disease appears. You can’t have the individuals that are protecting the
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population from the disease get infected as you will lose the protectors, and then after that, you

will lose the protected. This is why it would be dangerous for new diseases to release in the

thawing of the permafrost or the incline in natural disasters due to climate change. That too will

create shortages at hospitals using resources, which will take away lives from the human

population. Again, driving the point home, this is damaging to global health securities. Our

current failures will be exacerbated if the permafrost thaws.

SAFEGUARDS

Many things are being done to correct the problem of permafrost thawing, and many

more things can be done to safeguard the world from the dangers within the permafrost. Most, if

not all, things that are currently being done to protect the permafrost from thawing are being

done to fight back against climate change and are not being done to preserve the global health

securities against infectious disease or harmful greenhouse gases if it were to thaw. In fact, many

of the readings on the permafrost as it relates to global health are just thoughts by researchers

and scientists. It isn’t easy to find the research on the permafrost and worldwide health, and

almost all evidence-based readings are within the last few years, meaning it is a new topic being

targeted. The fact that it is gaining some traction is promising for its future outlook as more time,

and possibly more discussions will be directed toward the topic.

However, regarding things that can be done to safeguard the earth’s inhabitants against

the dangers in the thawing permafrost, the same things that are being done must be done further

with additional capacity. The permafrost locations are already being viewed closely by

researchers and governments to detect changes in the permafrost and so that the effects on

climates can be observed after they thaw to ensure nothing drastic is happening at the locations.
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Continuing these observations of the permafrost locations will ensure that some type of detection

will be present if the effects are severe and if there is an infectious disease that decimates animal

populations at the previous permafrost locations. But the observation must be taken a step

further, and surveillance must be implemented with remote viewing to keep a watchful eye on

the sites.

Further surveillance of the locations would cost money, but the money would be worth

the possible cost that it would be due to damage in an undetected problem. And in today’s world

of technology, the teams do not have to be on location entirely to view the area. Drones could

scout the permafrost locations and check for any changes to the ecosystems, including the animal

populations. Surveillance cameras could be placed around the sites to have monitoring at all

times in desired areas. And this monitoring could fall under agencies such as the National

Geospatial Agency (NGA), the United States Geological Survey (USGS), or the counterparts in

other parts of the world. Additionally, these agencies can collaborate and monitor along with

scientists, researchers, the United Nations, and the World Health Organization (WHO). This

allows for ongoing monitoring of climate change and adds in the eyes of organizations that will

be prioritizing global health securities above other reasons. And finally, with the United Nations

and governments keeping close monitoring, it will allow them to combine all the observations

and assessments to protect their critical infrastructures, including the global health securities.

The importance of enhanced surveillance systems to monitor the permafrost for health

reasons has been identified as a necessity by investigators and researchers in some of the

findings done on the permafrost about the infectious disease (Stella et al., 2020). Furthermore,

researchers also call for effective regulation within the permafrost territories to be protected and
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monitored (Stella et al., 2020). And after the reindeer incident in 2016, this is even more

important because that case study showed the world that an infectious disease frozen inside the

permafrost could strike again years later when released back into the openness of nature.

Granted, this was mainly animals and one person killed by the anthrax outbreak in Siberia. But

this may be the wake-up call that the world needs to demonstrate that the dangers are genuine,

and it is but a matter of time before humans are severely affected.

However, it may not be a wake-up call for most of the world. Instead, it may be forgotten

and remembered only when the devastation happens. This seems to be a pattern in human

history. Moving away from the infectious diseases and the permafrost, look at volcanoes.

Volcanoes are natural hazards, but they become natural disasters when people become too

comfortable and move closer. The tragedy is due to the loss of life that the volcano’s eruption

causes because it will more than likely result in the loss of life. Due to the natural disaster or the

eruption, people will move away from the volcano because it is dangerous. Then, as time passes,

people will become complacent and see that it has been many years since the last eruption. Then

they will return to live near the volcano because the soil is good there, forgetting that the soil is

suitable for planting because of the previous eruption years before. And then an eruption happens

and becomes a natural disaster, and people will claim they never saw it coming even with the

history showing that it will happen again. The same can be said when discussing infectious

diseases.

The flu pandemic in 1918 is taught in school, but it is briefly touched as the discussion is

consumed by World War I during that period. People briefly learn about that pandemic, but it is

not heavily shoved down their throats like other topics, at least in the United States. This creates
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a complacency among the population that an infectious disease could cause widespread havoc

and shut down the world, especially in such an advanced society. And then came the coronavirus

of 2019, effectively causing havoc and shutting down the world. People were caught off guard,

and then you began to see many reports on the previous epidemics, and the spotlight was that of

the influenza pandemic of the 20th century. Still, people were surprised to hear about the previous

pandemic. The coronavirus will change how people live, but it may not last long-term. Instead,

people will forget, become complacent, and revert to how things were before, like the living near

volcanoes scenario. Just in time for the next pandemic to appear because of the thawing of the

permafrost. Unless, of course, a watchful eye is kept on the permafrost so that any attempt by

hidden DNA viruses can be combated in a location away from people and while it can not move

quickly to another location.

People will become complacent, and that is okay to some extent as people need to be

aware, but it is not the average everyday citizen that needs to worry about the thawing of the

permafrost as there is not much they can do. But the governments need to make it an absolute

priority to survey, observe, and research the permafrost as it thaws so that they can detect any

and all dangers that are present due to the release of multiple hazards in the process. The

protection of their citizens is their job. The protection against devastating things like natural

disasters and pandemics is critical due to the immediate effects and the death that come with

them. Sure, the defense of a nation against an antagonistic neighbor is essential and deserves

attention. However, just because the danger is not seen right before a country does not mean that

they should not invest money, time, and resources into it. Naturally, humans fear the unknown,

and the dangers in the permafrost are entirely novel. That is why they should be given significant

attention so that the world is not caught off guard and decimated by an ancient organism.
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PERMAFROST NEEDS ATTENTION

Due to the relatively new developments regarding the possibility of active infectious

diseases in the permafrost, the world needs to give attention to the regions to protect the world

from harmful possibilities. Add in the greenhouse gases, and possible mercury risks and the

permafrost has the potential to an absolute disaster. Though the world has dealt with natural

disasters, pandemics, and climate change in the past, this would be different. It would be almost

as if the permafrost is a pandora’s box for all things against global health securities. However,

the eventual evidence from research or outcomes from the permafrost thawing could render the

low impacts and no real infectious diseases. In this case, the fear about the thawing of the

permafrost would be considered an overreaction. But if the outcome was reversed and the

eventual evidence and results were worse than people expected because the possible issues were

ignored, it would not be considered an underreaction; it would instead be classified as a global

failure that could have been avoided.

Because of the unknowns and the possibilities, the thawing of the permafrost must be

viewed as a significant risk to global health securities. It could potentially be the most significant

threat to global health securities. Hopefully, the world governments and organizations will

provide more time, money, and resources into researching the permafrost to search for possible

dangers. And if hazards are discovered, hopefully, there is enough time for those same

governments and organizations to provide the world with a successful outcome or protection.

However, that can only be accomplished if the right individuals can be shown hard evidence of

risk at the locations. A good start is the case study of the reindeer in Siberia, but it is not
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currently enough. But it does appear that there is more reading material and investigations into

the possibilities, and that is a bright light of hope for the time being.
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