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ARCGIS ANALYSIS

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The Kuja river basin is quite large, stretching from the Kiabonyoru highlands in Nyamira County all
the way down to Lake Victoria. The average elevation of the basin is 2,000 meters, whereas the
elevation at its source in Nyamira is a lofty 3,000 meters above sea level. Location: 0.65 0S 43.970E
(34.883110, -0.996036 Dms.) Length: 147km. About 2,584,313 people call the basin home, and its
size is 6,900 km2 (2,664 sq mi) (Census, 2009). A standard measurement of the river's flow rate is
58 m3/s (2,048 cu ft/s). The river is thus named because it flows through Gucha territory. Its name,
River Mogonga, is a metaphor for the destruction it causes when it floods.
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Hydrologic Characteristics

The basin cuts across five counties in Kenya; Nyamira, Kisii, Narok, Homabay and Migori
counties. River Kuja drains into Lake Victoria downstream where it is joined by Migori River. In
2001-2002, the river changed its course and passed through the current channel Kabuto Nyora
villages in lower parts of Kadem. It widens in some area like Sango where the river is 120m wide.
The mean annual runoff near its outflow to Lake Victoria is estimated to be 1,884Mm 3/year. The
basin is densely fed by small tributaries that drain into River Kuja. The tributaries include, River
Gucha at the source, Sare, Oyani, Onyinjo, Mirogi, Riana, Nyamache, Mugonga and Chirichiro
Rivers among others. There are over 800 springs and 8 major dams within the basin. There are three
major River Gauging Stations within the basin; KB01A, KB04 and KB07.

The DEM utilized has a 90m x 90m resolution and was retrieved by the Shuttle Radar Topography
Mission (SRTM). It revealed the basin's tributary networks' elevations and slopes. The used DEM
has a 90m x 90m spatial resolution. The DEM was crucial to the watershed model since it
characterized the catchment's topography. Stream direction, watershed border, and basin slope were
extracted from the DEM using Arc Hydro and HEC-GeoHMS. Terrain and flow direction were then
used to further subdivide the basin into a number of smaller basins. The length of the stream
segment and the areas of the sub-basins were then determined with the help of the HEC-GeoHMS.
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ArcGIS 10.2 was used to draw a boundary around the watershed and create the streams that drain
into it based on the downloaded DEM for the research region. Other GIS-based raster data for the
research region, such as soil, land use, and population density grid data, were clipped using the
watershed's border limit and the resultant shape file. Terrain processing was then carried out using
Arc Hydro instruments, feeding the DEM and stream information into the program. Involved
procedures in creating the landscape.
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The sub basins were processed as the first step in the project. To achieve this goal, we redrew the
boundaries of the sub basins, dividing the bigger ones and combining the really tiny ones. After
that, the river profile was analyzed. As a result, the rivers may be divided or combined so that they
flow more efficiently through their respective sub basins. The profile of the river, which takes 5.31
hours to concentrate, was then shown. This procedure included the computation of a number of
different basin and river variables, such as river length, river slope, the longest flow route, basin
slope, basin centroid, basin centroid elevation, and centroidal longest flow path. HEC-catchment-
delineation GeoHMS's data were transferred into HEC-HMS for further modeling.

Streamflow simulations in HEC-HMS

HEC-data GeoHMS's processing was eventually included into HEC-HMS. Exports from HEC-
GeoHMS were imported into the HEC-HMS version 4.2 model. As can be seen in Figure, the
resulting HEC-HMS project's user interface looked like this:
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The HEC-HMS model relied heavily on four key managers to operate: the basin model manager, the
meteorological model manager, the control specifications manager, and the time series data manager.
The map of the Kuja River basin might be found in the basin management program. The watershed may
be seen in this area. Hydrologic components such as junctions, reservoirs, reaches, sources, diversions,
and sinks were the sole features on the map at first; afterwards, the watershed's borders and sub-basins
were included as background map layers.
Model validation results

Model validation was performed over the time span of 1/1/2002 to 12/31/2003, which fell outside of the
model calibration time frame. Additional simulations were run to evaluate the performance of the model
using the improved parameters shown in Table 4.1. The NSE value of 0.31 found during model
validation is within an acceptable range (0, 1). The NSE value of 0.44 indicates that the validation
findings in the study by Yassin et al. (2015) in Pakistan were lower than the calibration values. They
concluded this was because the single rainfall monitoring station did not capture rain patterns over the
whole watershed. They also suggested setting up between four and five rain gauge stations to ensure
future modeling accuracy and conform to international standards. It's possible that mistakes in the
rainfall and streamflow data, caused by multiple missing data, are to blame for the drop in NSE value
from 0.50 to 0.31. Mergers and acquisitions are another possible explanation for this decrease.

the sub basins in order to simplify the simulation process.

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Baseline and simulated mean monthly stream flow for RCP 8.5