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2023 State of Fintech Report
2023 State of Fintech Report
2023 State of Fintech Report
2023
State of Fintech Team
Email: fintechindex@fprimecapital.com
Discussion: March 9, 2023 Noon ET
I Summary Page 4
VI F-Prime Page 35
3
Summary
The correction
・ Fintech was on fire in 2021, with 77 public listings — including eight of largest 10 fintech exits in history
・ However, in 2022 public investors re-appraised many fintech companies by prioritizing capital efficiency, and shifting their
valuation multiples from SaaS to traditional financial services businesses
・ Macroeconomic uncertainty abounds and rising interest rates will help some businesses while hurting others
・ The F-Prime Fintech Index was down 72% for 2022, with the average company in the Index falling 56% during the year
・ In 2022 there were six new additions (AvidXchange, Bakkt, Dave, Expensify, NerdWallet and Nubank) to the Fintech Index and
six delistings - three exited due to acquisitions and three fell out based on our index criteria
What’s next
・ The public market has begun to distinguish tech-enabled versions of existing financial institutions from truly disruptive
approaches to financial services
・ Some fast-growing neo-banks, lenders, and wealth management firms will rival incumbents over time; however, embedded
fintech business models will prove most disruptive
・ In aggregate, fintech companies have captured less than 10% of financial services revenue with payments making inroads
・ Fintech Index companies grew LTM revenue 48% on average and have collectively added $19B of revenue (+15%) in just the
first three quarters of 2022
・ We’re releasing vertical-specific benchmarks to better distinguish and evaluate diverse fintech business models
・ We highlight several interesting trends that we are tracking in 2023 - if you are building/investing here, let’s connect!
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F-Prime Fintech Index
F-Prime Fintech Index Overview
The F-Prime Fintech Index comprises the following emerging financial technology companies. 55
Criteria include capitalization, liquidity, growth rates, founding year and listing exchange. Companies
$397B
Market cap
$76.5B
Raised
3.7x
Revenue multiple
48%
LTM avg. revenue
growth rate
Source: Capital IQ, PitchBook, Yahoo Finance, F-Prime team analysis 2022 Additions 2022 Exclusions Note: All figures as of 12/31/2022
6
After hitting a peak of $1.3T in late 2021, the F-Prime
Fintech Index declined to $397B by December 31st, 2022
$1,400B
$1,200B
MARKET CAPITALIZATION USD ($B)
$1,000B $1.3T+
MARKET
CAP
(peak)
$800B
$600B
$400B
$397B
MARKET
CAP
$200B (~$850B
decline)
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q4
2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022
1,750% 1,703%
1,590%
1,500%
INDEX PERFORMANCE
1,250%
1,000%
750%
500%
Fintech Index
250% outperforms
S&P 500 by
173pp
01-01-2015 01-01-2016 01-01-2017 01-01-2018 01-01-2019 01-01-2020 01-01-2021 01-01-2022 12-31-2022
$100.0
$90.0
$85.8
$80.0
$220B+
$70.0
VALUATION ($B)
JAN JUL JAN JUN JUN SEP JUL DEC DEC APR
2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021 2020 2021 2021
INITIAL EXIT VALUATION (i.e. IPO)
* For companies that went public in 2020 onwards, market cap change is tracked from when they were added to index (generally after 90-days of seasoning). 12/31/2022 YEAR-END MARKET CAP
9
While all verticals have declined, payments and B2B SaaS fell the least
B2B SAAS PAYMENTS BANKING WAM LENDING INSURANCE PROPTECH STEEPEST DECLINES
0% n=4 n = 10 n=3 n=4 n=5 n=4 PER SECTOR
n=6
DECLINE
(10%)
B2B SAAS (70%)
AVG. MARKET CAP CHANGE SINCE PUBLIC LISTING
(20%)
PAYMENTS (77%)
(30%)
BANKING (96%)
(40%) (39%)
Note: Companies that were acquired in 2022 or did not meet our criteria at year-end were removed for the above analysis. All listing added to index after 90-days of seasoning.
10
Despite the valuation correction, Fintech Index companies continue to grow:
collective LTM revenue is up ~15% (+$19B) from $136B in 2021 to $155B as of Q3 2022
$160 $155
$152
$147
$140 $136
$120 $116
$12
LTM REVENUE ($B)
$100 $97
$14
$80
$61B $75
Cumulative
revenue added $94B $56
$12
$60 during quarter Cumulative $50
of listing organic $45
revenue growth
(61%) $40 $42
$40 $37
$33 $35
$30 $31
$26
$21 $23 $24
$20
$20 $18 $19
$14 $16 $16 $17
$3.2 $3.4 $4.5 $9
$5
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: CapitalIQ, F-Prime team analysis NEW REVENUE ADDED DURING QUARTER EXISTING REVENUE
(from public listing/seasoning) (including organic growth in quarter)
11
Even scaled fintech companies are still growing at high rates
300
0
$1,682 10%
-50
$1,680 163%
FINTECH INDEX COMPANIES WITH >$5B MARKET CAP AND >48% LTM REVENUE GROWTH
30.0x
26.8x
25.0x
21.7x
22.6x
20.0x
15.7x
EV/LTM REVENUE
14.6x
15.0x 12.2x
14.1x
13.6x
14.6x
12.0x
10.0x
8.2x
8.8x
7.0x 6.2x 4.0x
5.0x 8.7x
4.7x 3.8x
6.6x
3.7x
4.0x
3.5x 2.6x
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
2021 to ~$116B in
the first three
ACQUISITION VALUE ($B)
$29B
10.1x 9.2x
$10
7.3x
$13.1B
5.3x 4.4x 60.0x 4.9x 1.4x
$8.4B $8.0B
$4.0B $2.6B $2.2B $2.2B
$0 $1.8B $1.8B
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q1
TARGET
ACQUIRER
VC-BACKED FINTECH COMPANY PRE-MONEY VALUATION LARGEST DOWN ROUNDS & VALUATION CUTS
$95.0B
(3/21)
$1,750
$1,516 $45.6B
$40.0B
$1,500 (6/21)
(1/22)
$68.4B
(7/22) $11.0B
PRE-MONEY VALUATION ($M)
$6.7B (12/22)
$1,250 (7/22)
$1,000
$1,000
PRE-DOWN ROUND VALUATION POST-DOWN ROUND VALUATION
$825
$750
LARGEST UP ROUNDS
$600
$20.0B
$500 $422 (2/22)
90%
80%
REVENUE ALLOCATION
70%
60%
50%
93.7% 95.2% 95.2% 99.0% 99.4% 99.6%
40%
30%
20%
10%
INCUMBENTS
DISRUPTORS
Source: IBIS World Industry Report, Company 10Ks, News outlets, F-Prime team analysis
16
Fintech Industry Dynamics
Public investors have re-appraised fintech companies across the board
71%
20.4
drop in
14.8
average
multiples
12.6 13.0
8.8
6.9
5.9
4.2 4.6
3.4
Q4 2021
Source: S&P Capital IQ, F-Prime team analysis
Q4 2022
18 Note: For consistency, we used the same companies in the index in Q4 2021 (excluding new additions to F-Prime Fintech Index in 2022)
Fintech companies are now valued more like incumbents
and, in some cases, at a discount given their capital inefficiency
EV/LTM revenue multiple
14.8
12.6 13.0
5.3
4.2 4.6
3.9 2.9 3.2
2.4 2.2 1.4
20.4
Q4 2021 Q4 2022 Q4 2021 Q4 2022 Q4 2021 Q4 2022
PAYMENTS BANKING LENDING 13.9
6.5 6.9
VALUATION ($B)
8
10 1.4 10
7 6.4 1.5 1.4
6
1.2 1.1
8 1.0 8
5 4.6 4.5 1.0
6 6
4 3.6
3 2.5 4 0.5 4
2 0.5 0.3
0.2 2
1
0.1 0.3 0.5 2 0.1 0.1
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
SRS SRS SRS SRS SRS IPO 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 5Q 6Q SRS SRS SRS SRS SRS IPO 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 5Q 6Q
A B C D E (2014) A B C D E (2018)
POST IPO POST IPO
…others prove genuine market disruption and grow into their private market valuations
IPO 2015
IPO 2015
9 5 6 21
VALUATION ($B)
7
6.0 5.8 15
6 4 3.6
4.7 4.7 3 12
5 4.6 4.3
3.6
3 2.6 2.7
4
3.3 2 2.1 2.4 9
3
1.9 1.8
2.6 2
6
2 1.6 1 1.0
1 3
1 0.3
0.0 0.2 0.0
SRS SRS SRS SRS SRS IPO 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 5Q 6Q SRS SRS SRS IPO 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 5Q 6Q
A B C D E (2015) A B C (2015)
POST IPO POST IPO
12.0% 10.53%
10.0%
8.19%
8.0%
6.0%
4.79% 5.69%
4.0%
2.76% 3.41%
2.0%
0.0% 0.77%
0.12%
-2.0%
-4.0% -3.36%
-6.0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED. Inflation based on Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for INFLATION RATE
the United States (CPALTT01USQ661S). Nominal interest rate based on Federal Funds Effective Rate (DFF). NOMINAL INTEREST RATE (Fed rate)
21
Like the incumbents, banking and wealth management startups that hold
customer cash balances or float are benefiting from recent interest rate hikes
$15,000
$13,080
$2,500
NET INTEREST INCOME ($M)
$158 $1,500
$150
$128
$100 $100
$72 $63
$50 $50
INCUMBENTS
DISRUPTORS
Q3 2021 Q3 2022 Q3 2021 Q3 2022 Q3 2021 Q3 2022 Q3 2021 Q3 2022
YoY NET INTEREST INCOME GROWTH YoY NET INTEREST INCOME GROWTH
22
On the other hand, proptech and lending companies are exposed to rate
rises and saw revenue growth decline due to lower origination volume
$351 $166
$350
$150
$300 $132
LOAN ORIGINATION VOLUME ($B)
$250
$100
$200
$152
$75
$150
$100 $50
$53 $45
$50 $25 $15
INCUMBENTS $8
DISRUPTORS
2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022
23
Less than 25% of Fintech Index companies were profitable
over the last 12 months — mostly payments businesses
30%
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
LTM NET INCOME MARGIN (%)
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80 AVERAGE LTM NET MEDIAN LTM NET
SECTOR INCOME MARGIN INCOME MARGIN
n
-90
-100 LENDING (3.9%) 0.6% 5
-110 PAYMENTS (9.8%) (3.6%) 19
-120
B2B SAAS (20.4%) (18.5%) 9
-130
-140 BANKING (22.5%) (23.7%) 7
50 46%
40
30
20
10
0
NTM NET INCOME MARGIN (%)
-10
-20
-30
-40
AVERAGE NTM NET MEDIAN NTM NET
-50 SECTOR INCOME MARGIN INCOME MARGIN
n
Source: S&P Capital IQ Estimates: aggregate analyst estimates for public companies, F-Prime team analysis
25
The market has begun to distinguish better versions of existing financial institutions
from truly disruptive approaches to financial services
VERTICAL BETTER VERSIONS OF FINANCIAL SERVICES DISRUPTIVE POTENTIAL WE ARE TRACKING
Developer-friendly, API-first payment businesses will continue to grow Vertical SaaS + embedded payments is differentiated from pure
PAYMENTS rapidly and capture meaningful market share payment processing and can be the vertical’s operating system
Superior consumer experience proved neobanks can be better and BaaS offers true disruption to fintech stack and will fuel rapid
BANKING faster-growing versions of banks, but not exempt from bank-like returns growth in ecosystem, but must navigate regulatory scrutiny
Startups face smart and concentrated incumbents, but generational Digitization of private assets infrastructure and rise of
WEALTH/ASSET MGMT tailwinds will power some to rival legacy players emerging alternative asset classes like crypto, art, wine, etc.
INSURANCE Better UIs and service but few disruptive products; fast growth means Usage-based insurance can lead to novel products that go
adverse selection, yet startups need data to improve underwriting beyond improved user interface
Novel data sets and underwriting models expand TAM, but Embedded lending where software players become lenders
LENDING like incumbents, startups cannot avoid credit risk and credit cycles as by-product of software platform
PROPTECH Digitization of transaction lifecycle creates radically better experiences, Evolving residential ownership models including shared and
benefitting startups and incumbents fractionalized ownership
26
Fintech trends we are tracking in 2023
Trice
27
Key Fintech Benchmarks: by vertical
Broader set of benchmarks to be added to
Fintech Index website
Key payments benchmarks DISRUPTORS
INCUMBENT
YoY VOLUME
GROWTH (%) 13% 51% 84% 107% 21% 17% 62% 34% 41% 46% 51% 42% 25% 31% 31% 30% 41% 92% 15%
4.2% 3.0%
3.0% 2.8% 2.7% 2.3% 2.2% 2.0% 1.7%
3.8% 3.4% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6%
2.1% 1.4% 1.4% 2.0% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
Note: Net revenue excludes payment expenses. Block net revenue excludes Bitcoin operations.
7.6%
4.2% 4.1% 2.8% 2.6% 2.2% 2.0% 1.9% 1.5% 1.2% 1.1% N/A
0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
Source: S&P Capital IQ, Company annual report, management discussion and analyses investor presentation, F-Prime team analysis
29
Key banking benchmarks DISRUPTORS
INCUMBENT
METRIC 1: NUMBER OF USERS
80 70
66
NUMBER OF
60
USERS (M)
40
19
20
8 5 5 4
YoY USER
GROWTH (%) 46% 11% 11% 101% 61% -19% 5%
1.4
1.3
30 Source: S&P Capital IQ, Company annual report, management discussion and analyses investor presentation, F-Prime team analysis
Key wealth & asset management benchmarks DISRUPTORS
INCUMBENT
METRIC 1: USERS
150
108
NUMBER OF
USERS (M)
100
50 33
12.2 2.9
YoY USER
GROWTH (%) 21% -35% 17% -10%
METRIC 2: AUM
Note: Assets Under
$8,000 Administration (AUA) is
$6,644
ASSETS ($B)
YoY ASSETS
GROWTH (%) -64% -32% 60% -13%
31 Source: S&P Capital IQ, Company annual report, management discussion and analyses investor presentation, F-Prime team analysis
Key lending benchmarks DISRUPTORS
INCUMBENT
METRIC 1: LOAN ORIGINATIONS
$200 $179
ORIGINATIONS ($B)
$150 $141
$100
$50
$14 $14 $2
YoY ORIG.
GROWTH (%) -48% 55% 64% -55% -13%
32 Source: S&P Capital IQ, Company annual report, management discussion and analyses investor presentation, F-Prime team analysis
Key insurtech benchmarks HC DISRUPTORS
INCUMBENTS
METRIC 1: GROSS WRITTEN PREMIUM P&C DISRUPTORS
$250
$6 $49
VALUE ($B)
PREMIUM
$5
$1 $1 $1
$8,098
PREMIUM PER
POLICY ($)
$4,781
$4,377
$3,330
$1,837
$1,200
$343
LOSS RATIO
EXPENSE RATIO
33 Source: S&P Capital IQ, Company annual report, management discussion and analyses investor presentation, F-Prime team analysis
Key proptech / real-estate benchmarks BROKERAGE DISRUPTORS
INCUMBENTS
2,500K 2,381
TRANSACTION
1,470
VOLUME (K)
1,000K
667
500K 360 226 98
91 41
$28,863 $26,925
$30K
$21,042 Note: Opendoor’s revenue
$20K
contains the value of the
$11,928
$10K $4,884 home sold.
$152 $186
Source: S&P Capital IQ, Company annual report, management discussion and analyses investor presentation, F-Prime team analysis
About F-Prime
We create and invest in healthcare and technology companies that impact lives all over the world.
We have over 200 companies in our portfolio including 23 that we started. Our global portfolio is spread across the Americas, Europe, and Asia.
Note: Above listing is a sample of fintech portfolio companies in the F-Prime and Eight Roads funds.
35
The F-Prime Technology Team
Abdul Abdirahman Amrit Ramesh Ayla Schlosser Ben Gorman Betsy Mulé
Senior Associate Data Scientist Platform Director Venture Partner Senior Associate
David Jegen Gaurav Tuli John Lin Quinten Dol Rachel Feely-Kohl
Managing Partner Partner Principal Marketing Manager VP, Community & Platform