TOO CLOSE TO CALL:

EXIT POLL FOR FL HD-24

SPECIAL REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
March 6, 2023
P: (929) 388-6585
E: info@victory-insights.com
W: victory-insights.com
: @VictoryPolling

Poll conducted March 2-3, 2023 via IVR and text

message among likely Republican Primary voters in
FL HD-24.

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Table of Contents
1 Cover Sheet
2 Table of Contents and Executive Summary
3 Candidate Favorability
4 Republican Primary Ballot
5 10KSim: Election Simulations
6 Changes Over Time
7 Tracking Trends: 2024 Presidential Primary
8 Contact Information

Executive Summary
Following an incumbent state representative’s December resignation, a feisty
Republican Primary in deep-red Marion County has taken shape as five well-funded
candidates vie for the open seat. In our last poll, Ryan Chamberlin, Jose Juarez, and
Charlie Stone comprised the top tier of candidates, with Justin Albright a tier below and
Stephen Pyles at the bottom of the pile. While the top three candidates from our last poll
have all maintained their places in the top tier, Albright has also white-knuckled his way
into the fray. Pyles remains electorally irrelevant.
Stone (22.7%) has a narrow lead on his competition. Stone is a polarizing ex-State
Rep himself, and he holds both the highest positives and highest negatives out of any
candidate in the race. Chamberlin is next, with 18.4% of the vote, essentially tying Jose
Juarez’s 18.2%. Albright commands 16.4% of the electorate, and Pyles brings up the rear
with less than 2% of the vote. The top four candidates each fall squarely within each
others’ respective margins of error, meaning this race is far too close to call. According to
our proprietary 10KSim election simulation software, the top four candidates all still have
a shot at victory. The simulations give Stone a 63% chance of victory, followed by
Chamberlin with 15%, Juarez with 14%, and Albright with 7%. Keep in mind that this
doesn’t factor in the more than 20% of voters who remain undecided. Winning those final
undecided voters could prove to be the key to victory in this race.
Regardless of what the finishing order ends up being, we expect this race to be a
close one. In nearly 90% of our simulations, the race was decided by less than 10%, and in
more than half of simulations, it was decided by less than 4%. In other words, no
candidate can expect to cruise to victory on Tuesday. Instead, expect whoever does the
best job of maintaining supporters, reaching out to undecided voters, and keeping their
messaging on track to come out victorious – by a narrow margin.
 Ben Galbraith
Senior Pollster, Victory Insights
@_BenGalbraith

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Candidate Favorability
We asked respondents to rate each candidate on a scale from 1 to 5, with 1 being very
negative and 5 being very positive. Respondents also had the option to indicate that they
have no opinion of the candidate at all. The chart below shows this information. Two key
takeaways: (1) Stone is highly polarizing, as he holds both the highest negatives and the
highest positives; (2) Pyles remains largely unknown, with fewer than 16% of voters
holding any opinion of him at all.

 Very Negative Neutral Very Positive 

7.6% 7.7%
6.3% 6.4%
Albright
0.0%

13.0%

8.1% 7.7%
5.3%
3.7%
Chamberlin

14.5%

6.9% 5.9%
4.8% 4.6%
Juarez

5.2% 5.2%
Pyles 2.5% 2.4%
0.0%
16.3%
14.9%

7.7% 7.8%
5.9%
Stone

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Republican Primary Composite Ballot

This race is, without a doubt, too close to call. The top four candidates are separated by
only 6.3%, and 22.5% of voters remain undecided. Stone has a narrow lead, followed by
Chamberlin and Juarez, who are effectively tied. Albright trails behind very closely. Pyles is
entirely out of the picture.
35.0%

30.0%

25.0%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0% 1.9%
16.4% 18.2% 18.4% 22.7% 22.5%
0.0%
Pyles Albright Juarez Chamberlin Stone Undecided

Republican Primary Ballot by Vote Type

The chart below breaks down the ballot into those who have already voted and those who
still plan on voting. Juarez’s strength is clearly drawn from strong support in early voting,
paired with lackluster Election Day numbers. Stone is the opposite, performing more than
twice as well among late voters versus early voters. Albright and Chamberlin fall
somewhere in between the two extremes, with Albright doing outperforming among late
voters and Chamberlin outperforming among early voters.
50%

42%
40%
33%
30% 27%
24%
19% 20% 19%
20%
12%
10%
2% 3%
0%
Albright Chamberlin Juarez Pyles Stone

Already Voted Plans On Voting (Decided Voters Only)

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10KSim: Election Simulation Results

Using 10KSim, Victory Insights’ proprietary election simulation software, we simulated the
election 10,000 times to determine which candidates had a reasonable shot at victory.
What we found is that Stone (63%), Chamberlin (15%), Juarez (14%), and Albright (7%),
each have a chance at winning the special election, while Pyles (0%) has no chance.
Among the top four candidates, who beats who is anyone’s guess. The most likely finishing
order (Stone-Chamberlin-Juarez-Albright) only happened in 15% of simulations.
Additionally, remember that more than 20% of voters remain undecided. How those voters
end up voting could very well determine the outcome of this race.

Candidate 1st Place 2nd Place 3rd Place 4th Place 5th Place
Stone 63% 22% 10% 4% -
Chamberlin 15% 31% 30% 24% -
Juarez 14% 29% 31% 26% -
Albright 7% 18% 29% 46% -
Pyles - - - - 100%

10KSim: Simulation Visualizations

The two charts below help visualize the outcomes of the 10,000 simulations. On the left,
the kernel density estimate plot shows the distribution of each candidate’s simulated vote
share. Pyles’ curve doesn’t overlap with the others, but among the top four candidates,
there is tremendous overlap. Stone has a slight advantage, Albright has a slight
disadvantage, and Juarez and Chamberlin have practically indistinguishable curves. This
further shows just how close this race could end up. On the right, the boxplot visualizes the
distribution of “win margins.” What the chart shows is that in more than three-quarters of
simulations, the race was decided by less than 8%. Further analysis of the data shows that
the race was decided by single digits in nearly 90% of all simulations. Expect a close race.

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Ballot Changes Over Time

The chart below shows each candidate’s vote share across our January, February, and
March polls of the race. The top four candidates have each successfully raised their vote
shares from January to March, with varying degrees of success. Notably, Chamberlin’s
February frontrunner status was short-lived, as his vote share seems to have declined
since then. Albright, bringing his family name to the race, started the race in the top spot,
but dropped quickly as his unsophisticated campaign failed to keep up with the other top
three. However, a better-late-than-never spurt of outreach has raised his numbers enough
to put him back in the upper echelon of candidates.
30%

25% 25%
23%
20% 20% 18%
17% 18%
15% 15% 16%
11%
10%
2% 6%
5%
2% 3%
2% 2%
0%
January February March

Albright Chamberlin Juarez Pyles Stone

VoterTracking: Follow Individual Voters

Using Victory Insights’ proprietary VoterTracking software, we analyzed the progressions of
fifty voters who responded to several of our tracking polls over the past few months. The
Sankey diagram below shows each voter’s progression. Over time, you can spot a number
of trends, such as (1) undecided voters slowly dwindling, (2) Juarez maintaining his early
support, and (3) Albright making a late comeback (for further proof, in our March poll, a
total of 20% of all flips from one option to another were from “undecided” to Albright).

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Candidate Favorability
In line with several of our other polls conducted over the past year or so throughout
Florida, DeSantis is more popular than Trump in Florida. On a scale from 1 to 5, nearly
70% of likely voters gave DeSantis a 5, compared to only 41% for Trump. On the other end
of the spectrum, 17% of voters expressed their disdain for Trump by giving him a 1,
compared to only approximately half of that for DeSantis.

 Very Negative Neutral Very Positive 

40.9%

17.3% 15.2%
Trump 3.6%
9.0%

69.3%

DeSantis 8.7% 5.4% 7.2%

3.4%

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2024 Presidential Primary Ballot

Despite his significant popularity lead, voters aren’t quite as certain that they’d prefer
DeSantis over Trump as the 2024 GOP presidential nominee. Nevertheless, DeSantis still
maintains a narrow 3% lead, while 20% of voters remain undecided.
50.0%

41.7% Undecided
40.0% 38.4% 19.9% DeSantis
41.7%

30.0%

19.9%
20.0%

10.0%
Trump
38.4%
0.0%
DeSantis Trump Undecided

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@VictoryPolling
info@victory-insights.com
victory-insights.com
(929) 388-6585

www.victory-insights.com