Lecture #1

By: Ahmed ali Naqvi

Contents:

1. 0Pakistan’s domestic issues

a. Political
b. Economic
c. Socio
2. Pakistan’s foreign policy/ external relations
a. Pakistan relation with land neighbours (china , india, Afghanistan, iran, and sea
neighbor is Oman, we save sea boundary with oman)
b. Pakistan’s relation with key Muslims states (57 OIC members) (Saudi, turkey, UAE,
Indonesia, iran & afghan.
c. Pakistan’s relation with global powers: US, China & Russia.
d. Pakistan’s relation with different organization, UN, SAARC, ASEAN, SEO.
3. Global Issues
a. International Political economy
b. Global warming & climate change
c. Global energy politics
d. Middle eastern politics
e. Terrorism & counter terrorism
f. Nuclear proliferation
g. Population
h. Human rights

Major development; war ends/starts. Peace treaty formation/abrogation/withdrawal. New law

formation/ breaking of laws

Sources:

▪ Lectures

Maliha lodhi
Ashraf jhangir qazi
Amir rana
Khurrum Hussain
Farat Hussain
Zahid husain
Arab news
Zafar Nawaz jaspal
Dr hassan askari rizwi
Woodrow Wilson institute.
 Internal institute of strategic studies
Four compulsory things to do while answering a question

1. Analysis (whether asked in question or not) why is something happening, why are they in
conflict. How is something affecting? Creating analogies with some other situation.
2. 70% answer should be analysis. Do not write description more than 30%.
3. Facts and Figures, to support your analysis. Must have at least one quote of the concerned
official. Foreign minister Etc.
4. Occasionally draw maps, if the question is related to geography & tables.
5. Use terminologies while writing an answer, do not write in plain English
6. Use “state” instead of country. If written by mistake then do not cut it, its fine

Seeing the Pakistan’s perspective china is not involved in Kashmir issue its only involved w.r.t India. Only
India, UN, Kashmiris and Pakistan are involved.

Lecture #2

By: Ahmed ali Naqvi

Terminologies

A state has four main elements; 1. Government 2. Population 3. Sovereignty 4. Territory

➢ Hegemony is not over another state but is over a region or world. A hegemon if cannot dictate
freely, it can influence the other states in the region in many ways. India desire be the hegemon
of the S.A and wants to have its hegemony in the IndianOcean. A state cannot dominate without
power.
Hard power: Power comes through material, military, economy
Soft power: charismatic leadership, Ideology, cultural norms (CPEC can become a soft power in
future)
Conflict/ hostility/ enmity: ill will against anyone. State to state. Due to some clash of interest.
Dispute: if the cause of the conflict is some kind of ownership then it is called dispute.
Non-state actors: These are organizations, groups, institutions which plays a significant major
positive or negative role but is not a part of that state or any state. UN/ SAARC/ Taliban/
Media/NGO, (government could or could not be supporting them un-officially).
Proxy war: war between two or more states usually fought through militant non-state actors.
(India using BLA militants in Balochistan against Pakistan.)(Pakistan does it but we should not
write it in paper) (India used mukti behani in 1971 against Pakistan) sometimes a powerful state
could use a small state against their rivals. American used Pak against USSR
Cold war:intense rivalry between two states but they do not use direct force against each other.
They may use any other means, sanction, propaganda, increase in tariff (US &USSR 1945-1991.
US &China)
Free trade: when two or more states trade with each other without any barriers, tariffs and
duties.
Strait: a narrow channel of water connecting two seas naturally. Strait of Malacca
(IndianOceanSouth China Sea), Strait of Hormuz (Persian gulf-IndianOcean), Bab el Mandeb (Red
sea-Indian Ocean)
Straits and canals have freedom of navigation there are not state owned 1965 Jamal Nasir
tried to block Suez Canal, UK & Israel launched a joint strike against him.
Trade in straits and canals become vulnerable to threats.
Choke point:the point where trade can be blocked. It can be strait or canal. The most vulnerable
choke point is Malacca strait. Trade of almost 4 trillion dollars passes through this strait.
Hermit regime: the state that go with self-reclusion, like Bhutan.
Pariah regime: it seek global ties yet are widely shunned as they break global norms internally,
e.g. huge citizen rights abuse, like south Africa or Burma now.A pariah state is a nation considered
to be an outcast in the international community.
Rogue regime: it break global norms externally too, like exporting drugs or terror. The US calls
Iran one though many rightly accuse US of being one too often wrongly labelling all its
opponents as rogue.
Misinformation: the news/ information that is inaccurate or false and shared without the
intention to deceive.
Disinformation: the news/information shared to deliberately deceive and mislead the public.

Moral panic
Is Pakistan in the middle of a moral crisis? Is cultural breakdown afflicting all aspects of social
life? Have Pakistanis, as a collective entity, moved away from their roots? If public statements
and actions are anything to go by

State has no morality. Individualshave morality. State is an artificial entity, it is an object. They
have interests and that devise the foreign policy.

Geo strategic importance of Pakistan

Geo: Location, strategic: something that is greatly valued/ critically important

What is the value of Pakistan related to its geographical location? How is our location extremely
important?

You need to have complete command on map

North: China
East: India
West: Afghanistan
South: Sea
South West: Iran
 Regions:
Pakistan lies at the center of the three regions

South Asia
Pakistan included and the region to its east is called
South Asia.
Central Asian Republics
Region to the North West of Pakistan. (27
kmTajikistan)
Afghanistan is at junction of the South Asia and
Central Asia, since it’s a member of SAARC its
counted as South Asian country
Middle East
Region to the west of Pakistan

TAPI pipeline
Is currently being laid
Turkmenistan- Afghanistan- Pakistan – India, gas pipeline.
o The 1820-km pipeline worth around $8bn had envisaged originally about 1.3 billion
cubic feet per day (bcfd)each to Pakistan and India every year from Turkmenistan`s
Galkynysh, the world`s second-largest gas field, to the Indian city of Fazilka. It will pass
through Herat and Kandahar, in Afghanistan, and Quetta and Multan.
o Pakistan`s dependence on imported fuel has been increasing over time as domestic gas
resources fall by as much as nine per cent per annum in recent years and the share
ofLNG has gone up. At present, there are two government-guaranteed LNG terminals
with 1.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) LNG handling capacity while two more LNG
terminals in the private sector with 1.2bcfd handling capacity are in pipeline.

At present, the share of LNG is 24pc in the national gas grid of Pakistan.

After operationalization of two more LNG terminals, its share will be up to 48pc. Qatar
has captured the Pakistani LNG market and has been looking for increasing its share
including through joint venture partnership with an upcoming private sector LNG
terminal.

During recent months, Pakistan had faced a gas crisis due to higher reliance on LNG
imports, mostly from the spot market as long term spot market players, except Qatar,
continuously defaulted on their commitments. Now, Pakistan wants to diversify gas
import sources including through the TAPI pipeline.
o Pakistani authorities had two years ago called for the price opener as they believed
existingprices under TAPI would be reasonably (5-10pc) higher than LNG being imported
from Qatar and other countries. The LNG mechanism provided flexibility to the
purchaser in terms of gas quantities and tenure of supplies while gas pipelines once
 constructed could not be abandoned or changed and hence involved long term liabilities
going beyond 15-20 years.
Therefore, unless piped gas was significantly cheaper than shipped LNG, there was no
incentive for Pakistan to pursue it.
➢ This will give Pakistan a leverage against India, in future if any misadventure takes place. And
India would no longer finance the BLA to blast the Pipe line.
➢ This is the GEO-Economic value of Pakistan; our geographic location is valuable for the
economics of the region.
➢ War in Afghanistan is dependent on the Pakistan’s geographical support
If the US keep its presence/ exit from Afghanistan it will be using Pakistan to send aid and troops
this also be beneficial for Pakistan and they will be dependent on Pakistan. This Geo- Strategic
value of Pakistan.

Lecture #3

By: Ahmed Ali Naqvi

Indian Ocean
Question: India & Pakistan conflict in Indian Ocean/ Indian Ocean region.
Territorial waters:12 nautical miles from the coast baseline is the boundary of the state. Transit fee,
visa, any activities can be carried out by the state. (1.852 km =1 nautical mile)

Exclusive Economic Zone (international waters): 200 nautical miles from the coastal baseline/ (188
nautical miles beyond territorial waters).A state has partial control over it i.e. if a ship passes in these
waters that state cannot control it. It is called freedom of navigation under international law. Is there is
any natural or mineral resources under that waters that states can tap those.

➢ In narrow seas, this rule does not apply. Because the total distance may be less than the 12
nautical mile. Hence it vary from region to region. One thing is for sure it ought to have freedom
of navigation.
➢

Importance of Indian Ocean;

• It helps in connectivity for free trade and without relying on any other country.
• Bulk amount of freight is transported with minimal charges.
• Safest/ risk free trade route.
• Despite having borders with China we carry 95% of the trade through sea.

Connectivity;
 • Indian Ocean is the global junction. Trade of east with west or vice versa.
• India Trade with Africa, European trade with east Asia through Indian ocean
• Persian Gulf oil 1/3rd of the world come from Persian Gulf) producers passes through
Indian Ocean. China is the largest importer of the oil.

Conflicts;

• Why & what is the nature of the conflict;

o It is triggered by the India’s desire for hegemony in the Indian Ocean
▪ If it became one it can be problematic for Pakistan’s security.
• Zero-Sum game/ win lose; If enemy rises in power I am losing
• Positive Sum Game/win win; if friend rises in power I rise as well

• Why India wants hegemony?(this is called analysis part, you don’t need to write
analysis heading)
o To counter Chinese influence as in extra regional state (constructing since 1990)
in India Ocean. India call the Chinese made ports in the region as String of pearls
because it’s choking India. They think it’s a policy to encircle India.
▪ Although India claim to counter Chinese claim as a reason for its
hegemony but this a mere an excuse. India is by nature an expansionist
power/ aggressive power and its hegemony is threatening Pakistan.
o Natural claim; India claims that it has the largest economy/
population/coast/militaryin the Indian Ocean region. And they claim that Indian
Ocean is named after India.
▪ This claim is an excuse to expand Indian influence and it meant to be
aggressive with mala fide intentions

o Economic reasons; India is the fifth largest economy in the world and 90% of its
trade is carried out through this Ocean. And India wants to protects its maritime
trade in this region against pirates, sea based terrorism, threat from enemy
states it need power in this region.
▪ We have a history with India using its seas route to target Pakistan or
threaten Pakistan. E.g 1971 war India went for naval blockade, blocked
Pakistan’s sea route to east Pakistan and claims that it destroyed Ghazi
submarine. They used their power then against Pakistan what are the
Odds that they would not use it in future, if they get the ascendency.
2019 after polwama attackIndia mobilized it submarine which was
detected by our navy and forced it go back, India used its power as early
as 2019 to threaten Pakistan.

• What steps are being taken by India to maintain its hegemony in the region?
o Constructing 4 different ports apart from its territory. 1. Chabahar, 2.seychelles,
3.madagascar, 4. Mauritius
▪ 2018 agreement with Oman to construct naval base in Oman first offshore
military base.India getting stronger by construction of these ports and bases
hence it can use those ports and bases to threaten Pakistan with war &
economic conflicts.
o Alliances; India is developing different alliances
▪ The quasi-alliance of US with Aus, Ind, japan called QUAD;`Quad` alliance seen
as a bulwark against China.Informal alliance & AD-HOC group formed in 2007
after Indian Ocean tsunami in 2007, where approx. 227,898 lives were lost to
meet the destruction, by INDIA, USA, JAPAN, and AUSTRALIA. Australia rejoined
it in 2017 and QUAD 2.0 was held in 2019 turning it in to strategic partnership.
These states started doing naval exercises. Last exercise in Dec 2020 n bay of
Bengal. In 2020, America proposed to turn it into NATO like alliance. To connect
QUAD +, America wants to add two more states South Korea & New Zealand.
Again,it will strengthen India hence posing a threat to Pakistan.
(International view:QUAD leaders’ joint statement “the spirit of the QUAD”,
“together, we commit to promoting a free, open rules-based order, rooted in
international law to advance security and prosperity and counter threats to
both in the indo-Pacific and beyond. We support the rule of law, freedom of
navigation and overflight, peaceful resolution of disputes, domestic values and
territorial integrity. Indirectly taking steps to contain China. ZHAO LIJIAN
spokesperson, china foreign ministry “ we hope that relevant countries will keep
in mind common interests of the regional countries and uphold the principle
and do things for regional peace, stability, prosperity rather than the opposite”)

India`s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar told, When asked how India`s ties
with Russia could affect its partnership with the US in the Quad, Mr Singh,
according to The Hindu, said there was a `shared recognition in the Quad that
China is a strategic threat to a free, open and secure Indo-Pacific.
`Russia is going to be the junior partner in this relationship with China.
Mala Bar naval exercises between US-Inda.

▪ LAMOA; in 2016 Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement. A bilateral

agreement between India & US to share Military Logistics exchange.
Transportation, technical help, emergency aid.
A similar agreement between India & Australia was agreed upon in 2020.
 This is again making the position of India strong surging the threats for Pakistan.
▪ CAMCASA; In 2018, Communication Compatibility and Security Agreement,
bilateral military intelligent agreement between US & India. 1. US & India shall
share military intelligence. 2. US allow India to purchase intelligence gathering
technologies from US. (If question is upon the Pakistan then we should not
include the US perspective in it. Instead talk how is it becoming a threat for
Pakistan) through this agreement Indian position will be strengthened and it will
be a grave threat to Pakistan.
▪ BECA, Basic Exchange & Cooperation Agreement, signed between two
Countries in 2020. Under this agreement US shall share the military space data
with india. Maps, Coordinates etc.. that means that they would be able to pin
point any target in Pakistan and this they would not miss their target just like
previous years Balakot strike, which was due to the lack of advanced
technology. This has raised the concerns for Pakistan.
▪ Cash-strapped Sri Lanka has secured a billion-dollar credit line from India to buy
urgently needed food and medicine. India stands with Sri Lanka,` Indian Foreign
Minister S. Jaishankar said on Twitter. `US$1 billion credit line signed for supply
of essential commodities.

The latest loan was on top of another $500-million Indian credit line to help its
island neighbour buy oil.
This could seriously harm the Chinese influence in the region.
o Strengthening NAVY
▪ 1st Aircraft Carrier from UK in 1960s
▪ 2nd from Russia in 1990s
▪ 3rd indigenous in 2007
▪ Currently manufacturing 3 more
▪ Negotiating with US to purchase one more
▪ US sold India Unarmed and Armed Drones in 2017 and 2019 respectively. These
drones specialize in maritime operations.
▪ US sold India ATAC Helicopters in 2019. They are multirole: Rescue,
transportation and Anti-ship and Anti-submarine Missile systems
This will help India to develop an invincible front against Pakistan.

Lecture #4

By: Ahmed Ali Naqvi

o Nuclear Capability (the most solid step towards the hegemony)

▪ 1974, 1998
▪ India tested SLBM (submarine launched ballistic missile) in April 2016 became
the first state in the Indian Ocean to have triad.
▪ India Possess Nuclear Triad and Second Strike Capability (a state is able to
absorb a nuclear attack & is able launch a counter nuclear strike) from Sea
 ▪ India possesses Nuclear armed and Nuclear Powered Submarine named as
Arihant.
▪ India is currently manufacturing four more such submarines
▪ India signed agreement with Russia to acquire Nuclear submarine on lease for
30 year in 2019
With such capabilities,India has a hegemonic position in the Indian Ocean. In
2019, after Balakot strike, India officially said that it is mobilizing Arihant. That
was a clear message or threat to Pakistan that India might use arahant to launch
nuclear strikes in Pakistan.
• Pakistan’s Response
Pakistan has a Defensive stance. It has two main concerns. 1. Territorial Security,
India bombed Karachi 1965, 1971 war. In 2019, India threaten to launch nuclear missile
on Karachi “ShahMahmood Qureshi gave this statement”. 2. Economy & Trade,
They blocked our trade in 1971 and with India have hegemony our trade will not be
secured in the IndianOcean. Two other threats, Pirates & Terrorism of the sea. USS Cole,
warship war attacked by terrorist. AMAN exercise by 45 states recently to counter
terrorism.
o Gawadar Port as alternative to Karachi port with Chinese help it will provide an
economic strategic depth(geographic space to retreat) to Pakistan
o Strengthening Navy (within our resources)
▪ 2 Naval Warships from China (2018) next 2 will be manufactured in Pakistan.
▪ Agreement to purchase 8 (4 in china, 4 in Pakistan) submarines from China in
2017 with transfer of Technology
▪ Negotiating to purchase first ever Aircraft Carrier from China
▪ Agreement to purchase 4 submarines from Turkey in 2017
o Nuclear Capability: (most important, front line defence Pakistan tested SLCM in January
2017
This conflict has been escalating; surge in the armaments since recent few years has
been witnessed. Although this conflict is regional,we cannot rule-out the interest of the
global powers or the extra regional states, china on Pakistan’s side & America on India’s
side, are involved in this conflict.

Question: Global powers rivalry/ conflict in Indian Ocean. Conflict between China & US in Indo
pacific. (Pakistan US relations. India China relations. Pakistan-china relation, CPEC, Afghan peace
process, Abraham accords; these questions part of answer will be from this Topic)

QUAD state are currently highlighting the Indo-Pacific term. Pak, Russia, China does not use this
term.
US says that it’s a region between India, Australia, New Zealand, and japan in other words Asia
pacific and India.
From India’s perspective indo – Pacific is all of the Indian Ocean & all of the Pacific Ocean.
 India sees it in the much broader view because
India has ambitions in this region, also a part of
their act east policy. US has the only focus on
India as a key ally.

US’ Indo-Pacific Policy

Us president announced this policy in 2017

The officially state words are “Free and open
indo Pacific”
2018 NSS, national security strategy, document
was published by their department of defence. “The single most important threat to US & its
allies comes from China”. Enemy no. one. Before that, terrorism was enemy no.one
This Policy is meant to limit the growing Chinese influence in the Indo- Pacific region with the
help of regional allies.
1. US aims to contain China in indo- Pacific region with the help of its regional allies, QUAD +

Lecture #5

By: Ahmed Ali Naqvi

US wants to contain the china because

1. Thucydides trap, when there is an established power and a new power is emerging, the
conflict between them is inevitable. The established power realize that its going to lose
power hence it initiate the conflict.
2. Clash of values, political, America is a democracy, while china is a communist party
dictatorship. economic, American are classical capitalist society state does not control the
capital, laissez faire economy while in china state controlled capitalism, currently private
ownership is allowed but ultimate control is with the government. Facebook blocked the
trumps account. In china, its state controlled capitalism.socio- culture, American promote
liberal values, freedom of expression, freedom of religion while china does not promote any
of these. Jack Mao is an apt example. If Chinese emerge as a new global power, they are
likely to promote their values. Consequently, American values will start disappearing form
the world.
3. Ruled based order, American think that in international relations states must follow
particular laws, rules & values while interacting each other. America claims that china does
not follow these laws and rules.After the WWII world realized that there must be certain
rules to live in harmony. A state that violates the international norms and to put an end to
the current laws and values is called Revisionist state. e.g. China expanding its boundaries by
force. Ladakh, south China sea. The Taiwan issue, china violates the international
humanitarian law. Mal treatment of Uighur Muslims. WTO rules are violated. Dalia lama
 issue. American considering themselves as global hegemon are confronting China on these
basis.
It is considered a Violation of a Treaty when, you are a signatory of that treaty and still
renege on your promises. If you withdraw from an international treaty that is not
considered as violation of the treaty. States are sovereign they have the right to withdraw
or join the treaty.

What steps are taken by the US to contain china

Trump brought changes in the Obama’s Pivot to Asia Policy and re-announced the Indo pacific
policy.
• In 2011, Obama’s Pivot Asia policy/rebalance to asia China wa a defacto target.
o To develop close strategic partnership with Asia Pacific state. Indonasya, brunai,
Singapore.
o Hilary Clinton “Pacific Ocean is our home and these states are neighbors therefore we
want to develop close tries” also they are emerging powers.
o Military partnership
▪ Specifically with; Philippines, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea and general with
others. US signed bilateral security agreements. Security guarantees. Deployed
its military bases in these countries. Selling most advanced weapons to these
states.US agreed to sell South Korea F-35 jets. $2 billon of weapons in 2019 to
Taiwan.deployed nuclear weapons in South Korea. Missile defense system
patiot & thaud. Increase of the Maritime presence, 60% of the naval command
is deployed in the Asia-Pacific
o Economic
▪ Trans Pacific Partnership.TPP- is a multilateral free trade agreement 12 states
including US. Signed in 2015 by Obama
▪ This will cause China to lose its trade with these states.
o Focus on Asia to counter china. Engage and rally the regional states against China
o
• In 2017, Trump’s Indo-pacific policy.
o China was officially declared a rival and threat. De-gero threat
o According to the National Security Strategy “china is the enemy no.one, Russia no. two
and terrorism no. 3”
o Broadened the region og the policy. In Obama’s tem it was asia pacific now t was Indo
pacific. The territory in west ward was expanded.
o Washington has long viewed India as a key partner in efforts to blunt increasing Chinese
assertiveness in the region .Support India to tackle china. QUAD(also called Asian NATO)
CAMCASA, BEKA, LEMOA.
o 50,000 American soldiers are stationed in south Korea.
o US military partnership with Japan.
o Mutual defenSe treaty with Philippines
o Military support to Taiwan.

Why India
 o India and US share the same values. Oldest and largest democracy
o Shared economic values. India moving towards a classical capitalist economy.
o Share socio cultural values. Multilateralism, liberal values, religious freedoms
o US and India follow the Rules based order.
o Common geo-strategic interest-China as a mutual rival, countering terrorism

o The US under the new policy have got another change that was, the naval headquarters in
Huawai, previously named as US Pacific command, changed to Indian pacific Command. It
prioritize the new command area and

Why did the South Asian state rally around US

o These states have their own conflicts and disputes with China in South China Sea.
o Although the disputed island are barren with respect to mineral but having control over
these islands will grant 90 % of the South China sea under Chinese control. China’s maritime
boundary will get extended many foldsand under these waters, not islands, there is
immense amount of Shale oil reserves.

This threat to Chinese is the region is called Malacca Dilemma-(puzzle/challenge)

China’s response

o Wish to thwart the US containment policy through

o Through BRI they want to bypass the Malacca strait. CPEC is the Chinese
idea. The necessity for China. A geopolitical project. Only developed
when US threatened the trade in South China Sea in 2010.
o China is developing its PLA navy. Second largest defence spending state.
It spends around $200 bn per annum. (US $ 746 bn). Chian has 2 aircraft
carriers and has vowed to induce 5 more by 2025. Chian has the largest
fleet of the War Ships 400+. They have 2 nuclear powered and nuclear
armed sub marines.
o RCEP, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. In 2020, China
signed RCEP. A free trade agreement with fourteen other regional states.
India refused to be a part. China has made economic alliance with the
states to which US has security alliance. China wants to weaken their
military alliance with the US, to make them less likely to act against
China, their Economic partner.
Lecture #6
By: Ahmed Ali Naqvi

Q: Critically examine the strategic rivalries and conflicts in the indo pacific region. Also, highlight the
security dilemma created by such rivalries for Pakistan.

Article, tom Hussain, As US plays off India& china it risk losing a nuclear armed alley: Pakistan.

Nuclear Conflict in South Asia/only India& Pakistan out of 8 states have nuclear

Zafar Nawaz jaspal

Dr. Rabia akhtar

Civil nuclear technology: medical treatment, Electricity (kanupp karachi, ChAsnUPP 1,2) under
international law every state has the right to use nuclear for peaceful purposes

Nuclear Weapon technology: Conflict lies here.

The state a written document called Doctrine that define in what scenarios war can happen with nuclear
weapons.

➢ Indian nuclear Doctrine

o Nuclear test in 1974, 1998. Drafted its nuclear policy in 1999 & announced it in 2003.
o India’s nuclear policy is defined & controlled by NCA (Nuclear Command Authority). PM
is the head but he cannot allow it.
o Title (Minimum Credible Deterrence) it is a codified document.
Contents
o Its nuclear weapons are primarily defensive weapons & they are meant for deterrence
o Under these circumstances, India will use it (optimum threshold, limit). A nuclear attack
on India will only provoke India to retaliate with nuclear.
o No First Use (NFU) policy, to it threshold.
▪ In addition to nuclear attack, if any state attack India with (WMD, weapons of
mass destruction) chemical or Biological weapons it will retaliate with nuclear.
▪ In 2019 defence minister Rajnath singh gave a statement, “India yet remain
firmly committed to the doctrine of‘No First Use’. India has strictly adhered to
this doctrine. What happens in future depends on the circumstances”.
➢ Pakistan Nuclear Doctrine
o Nuclear test in 1998. Announced our policy in 2001
 o Pakistan’s Nuclear policy is framed by NCA (National Command Authority) headed by
PM. Strategic Plans Division.SPD (strategic plan division) Director General: Lt. Gen
Nadeem Zaki Manj.
o Uncodified policy
o Title was the same when announced in 2001(Credible Minimum Deterrence) but in
2011 we changed to (Full Spectrum Deterrence)
Contents
o It is primarily for deterrence.
o 3 thresholds (if enemy invades Pakistan, threatens the territorial integrity of Pakistan it
will retaliate with Nuclear weapons) (if enemy attacks Pakistan and destroy our major
urban centers we will retaliate with nuclear on their urban centers) (if enemy destroys
our economy by naval blockade or river blockade)
o 1 more threshold added (in case of limited war we will also retaliate with nuclear (raheel
shareef “whether it’s a cold start or hot start we are ready to deal with it)). bcz India
stated that it will start a limited war, (cold start doctrine: Indian Offensive Defense
Policy), will remain in a limited area in the border will engaged with Pak Army and go
back, in this way they will not cross the 3 thresholds.
o We have no“No First Use Policy”.
o

India’s consideration of carrying out pre-emptive strikes in a reversal of its long held ‘NO First Use’
posture has complicated the operational environment.

As India has now become the second largest arms importer globally. Nuclearisation of the Indian Ocean
is also fraught with new risks.

Lecture #7
By: Ahmed Ali Naqvi

The Nuclear as weapon of deterrence.

➢ Principle of proportionality
o In case of annexation of any territory of Pakistan by India, Pakistan will retaliate with
Nuclear weapon though; it has not the capability to annex any area of India but has the
potential to destroy a particular area.
o In case if Indian side attack any of the Urban Center of Pakistan, even with the
conventional weapons, Pakistan will retaliate with Nuclear weapon and destroy any of
the Urban center in India.
o In case, if India temper our economy by blocking the rivers or the sea routes, Pakistan
will retaliate with Nuclear weapon on the economic hubs of India.
o If they engage with our army, we cannot attack their urban centers. So in order to target
their army with the Nuclear. Pakistan had to develop “Tactical Weapons” these has two
characteristics: they have shorter range and are low yielding, having lower diameter of
destruction. The invading forces in our own territory will be targeted with Nuclear.
Because through conventional means their strength is more and Pak Army cannot
handle them. From HADAF family = AL NASR missile
 o Sheikh Rasheed the interior minister “as per demand we will react”
India has challenged the Pakistan’s territory in the Past= East Pakistan, Hyderabad and Juna gar, siachin
in 1984, sir creek.
In the recent past India has threaten to Aug 5,2019 India revoke article 370 and 35-A of the India
constitution. After which it issued its own map, in which t showed AJK and GB as India territory.
• There were numerous Indian figures who publically threaten to annex GB. Like Jai Shankar.
Which is a serious threat. They have had carried such miss adventure. In Karachi, balakot.
o However, since Pakistan has developed its Nuclear weapons India has not attacked a
major step against Pakistan.
o Indian national security advisor minister ajit Dovel threatened to launch Missile on three
major cities of Pakistan Karachi; molana Masood azhar house, Bahawalpur: JAish
Muhammad HQ, Murikee; jumat ud dawa HQ.
➢ Naval Blockade/ River Blockade
o Historically they have done it in 1971 war
o In the recent past they have mobilized Arihant and other conventional submarines in
the Indian ocean in the wake of pulwama attack ,feb 2019, that created the threat of
naval blockade or attack on the urban center
o In the past they have done so. In 2016, indian threatened to block Pakistani river in the
wake Uri attack.Modi “blood and water cannot flow together”
▪ Threat of Nuclear war has significantly increased under fascist Modi regime.
▪ Indian ministers consider the Pakistan’s Nuclear capabilityas the Nuclear Bluff.
This is the end of strategic restraint.
➢ Karachi bombed in 1971
o Indiscriminate strafing and bombing by Indian war planes [on] civilian population all
over Pakistan caused at least 183 fatalities while 229 persons were injured

In strategic rivalries, people are always the victims

➢ No.of war heads with both countries according to SIPRI institute 2021 report
 ➢ Delivery system
o In Nuclear-
Pakistan& India both have triad capability. India achieve triad in 2016 hile Pakistan
followed suit in 2018.
▪ land
• India= agni & Pritvi max 5000 KM.
• Pakistan= shaheen iii, ababeel. Max 2750KM
▪ Air
• Jet capable of carrying nuclear. SU30, Mirage, Rafael . BRAHMOS missile
cruise-self guided. Ballistic missile-define trajectory
• F-16, JF17 thunder, Mirage III. RAAD missile from air. J10c , F7+b
▪ Sea
• Arahant/K-4 is nuclear powered and nuclear armed. Ballistic missile
• Pak has Submarines-BABUR Cruise missile
o Second Strike Capability – the capability of a state to absorb the first nuclear strike and
being able to launch retaliatory nuclear strike.
▪ Pakistan has mobile launch pads. Vehicle trucks, sub marines, fighter jets with
capability from taking off from even the motor ways if the base run ways are
damaged.
This will cause the mutually assured destruction

➢ Missile defense system

 o India acquiring missile defense form Israel. Israel has Iron dome. It came under
suspicious in the recent rocket attacks on Israel by Hamas, in which multiple rockets got
penetrated through the so called invincible defense system.
o Pakistan developed ABABEEL missile (MIRV technology) as a counter to the
Indiandefense system.MIRV, an acronym for multiple independently
targetable reentry vehicles, is a technology that allows a single missile
to carry multiple warheads, each individually programmed to attack
different targets.
o ISPR, the development of a MIRV capable missile is “aimed at ensuring
survivability of Pakistan’s ballistic missiles in the growing regional
Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) environment.”
o India has agreed with Russia to acquire S-400, which has made the previous war heads
made by Pakistan obsolete. However,Pakistan has developed BABUR-III. To counter S-
400. Babur-III is cruise missile, can be launched for sea and land, can carry nuclear and
conventional warheads. MAX 700 KM. has Mid-Air maneuverability.
▪ This has created the indefinite arms race in the region. and Pakistan has
teetering economy to match. Which India is exploiting this and dragging it
further into arms race.
➢ India _Pakistan nuclear war is a very realistic threat cause by the aggressive Indian posture
towards Pakistan and rhetoric of their leaders.
➢ Given the India and Pakistan Nuclear capabilities, this war, is likely to have significant, regional &
global security threats- like environmental, humanitarian, refugee, terrorism, etc.).
➢ Kargil conflict had far-reaching consequences which Aizaz summarises (DIPLOMATIC
FOOTPRINTS) as follows. `It shattered the peace process with India, dented our deterrence by
opening the door for India to conceive conventional engagement below the nuclear threshold,
and undermined the Kashmir cause by providing India an opportunity to falsely project the
Kashmiri freedom struggle as Pakistani-backed terrorism.
Yasir Farhad
Lecture 1
Ethnic Issues & National Integration

Ethnicity: ethnicity initiates from race. Belonging to specific race, your shared values, your shared
culture, language all are by products belonging to that same race. Yellow nation are people of
japan, china, .Europeans, with blue eyes, golden hair. Brown people are called cocatians. If a
person born in sub-continent placed in the Africa will adopt their culture but he would not look
like them. He will inherit the diseases his ancestors had, his body language as his ancestors.
Religion is also an adopted phenomenon; culture can be an adopted phenomenon.

Unity in diversity
 A troubling element adding fuel to this decisive scenario is that political parties are being
associated with ethnic identities with the costs manifesting themselves at the policy and
institutional level such as in preferences in public hiring and contract, control over land, services
and violence.

This growing fragmentation often manifests itself in violence. The Afghan war gave birth to the
‘Kalashnikov’ culture. This made Karachi become a hot bed of religious extremism, where radical
forces with political agendas tried to pit communities against each other based on religious
identity.

However, cities like Medellin City in Colombia was also known as ‘machine Gun City’ –the base
of Pablo Escobar, it bounced back after undergoing an urban transformation based of the
philosophy of ‘social urbanism’. Now it the tourist attraction. Los Angeles City is also an example
of unity in diversity where 56 percent of the population speak a language other than English at
home. In 2017, the Los Angeles county Arts commission released the ‘Cultural Equity & inclusion
initiative’ report to ensure everyone in the city had equal access to arts and culture

Unity in diversity is the scheme of GOD. If HE had wished he could have made it. Russia tried to
implement communism; same education, same dress, same language but it did not unite them.
As soon as the central got weaker the unnatural alliance of USSR was perished. USSR was the
federation of the force. Federation of force does not succeed rather, federation of willing
succeeds e.g. USA.

The only common that these 5 regions practiced was the religion. Rise above your racial,
provincial prejudice and get united in the name of religion to create a country. Unfortunately, in
our case religion was made as a medium of every kind of identity. Still we were further divided
on the basis of identity. It was a means to an end not an end in itself. End/ objective wasSocial
Justice and Economic Equality(nobody shall bediscriminatedfrom growing based on caste, creed
& colour).

➢ Ideology are for movements, these are people’s domain. When you achieve your
objective through movement. State created as a result has to run on the time-tested
principles of constitutionalism, good governance and rule of law. When a state or a
group tries to implement a certain religion, certain ideology the effect of this is that the
inhabitant in that state, who practice other religion, by default become second and third
class citizens. Your country would not progress. The leaders of this country knew about
this, that’s why they said that we will constitute a Muslim majority state where we will
gave justice, economy to the people. The other leaders who had joined the bandwagon
at the time of making of Pakistan, after the demise of Jinnah, could not deliver. The
bubble of religious unity busted. When people came to this new state and the
misgivings continued, marginalized people stayed marginalized and lives of minorities
were miserable in the country made in the name of minorities. The bubble of religious
unity got bursted and people again turned to their original point of recognition and they
started to adhere to their ethnicities. This a natural human phenomenon, whenever
they feel threaten they go back to their likings. Pashtun with Pashtun, Sindh desh, jag
Punjabi jag slogans were raised in 1985.
➢ This slogan of provincialism could have been avoided if we had delivered what Quaid
had promised that state will deliver and will remain neutral, despite of any ethnicity&
religion.
➢ There two types of states
1. Unitary states: one unit. Turkey UK, Iran, China. Provinces are there but are
not independent, no political autonomy, they are only administrative units
and their governors are appointed by the federal Government. They are not
elected. There provinces do not have a provincial assembly.
2. Faderal states/ Federations: dual set of Government. Federal Government
with having define mandate, e.g. Defence, foreign policy, finance, int trade
& commerce, communication. Provincial government with separated
assembly where they can make legislations regarding the sectors in its
mandate. Irrigation, agriculture, Their own CM, who is answerable to their
masses not to the Prime Minister.
In these states provincial autonomy and their political representation
matters.
Two types of federations
a. Holding on Federation, that has existed since the beginning but the
whole paramount the parts. e.g. India boundaries can vary. In these
holding on federation its not necessary that the provincial governments
are strong but the country has made the provinces not the vice versa.
b. Coming together Federation, the federation that never existed before
but was made by the provinces coming together e.g. Pakistan, US. The
states said that we will be autonomous in our dealings, we will have our
elected assembly our separate Governor, our separate subjects,
separate flag, our separate anthem & slogan. In such states three things
are guaranteed: (Territorial integrity, the size of that province, without
their consent will not be altered), (Provincial autonomy, people of the
respective province will rule that province e.g. sindis in sindh), (Cultural
identity, it will not be changed, if we are impressed by your culture and
adopt it by our own will that is possible but you cannot impose the
culture on force). Despite this America is not a weak Federation.
In such federations identity of the provinces, their autonomy, their
territorial integrity is part of that model not a favour granted to them.
Unity in diversity is the way forward.
This is the difference between a confederation and federation
A confederation is a union of states, which are united on one single
objective of defence. US remained a confederation for the first 10 years.
You can opt out of confederation at any time.
In federation, you come with your free will but you cannot leave it after
signing the constitution.
▪ Before, our independence was on 15th august same as India as
27th Ramadan was on 15th august. But it got changed because
lord mount baton was the governor general and he could not
 attend two ceremonies on a single date that’s why it was
pushed as day before.

Factors of Divergences/ Disintegrate

➢ Political Factors
o Delay in Constitution due to which the below mentioned clauses did not exist.
No elections took place, that’s why politicians bend towards non democratic
powers.
Pakistani were scared to ci-conduct elections and their founder fathers left with
in a year. The other feudal lords had joined the Pakistan movement because
they want to secure their interests by join the bandwagon.
Indian on the other did not scare to hold elections and their founding leaders
lead the county for 20 successive years after partition.
Political science term: power abhors vacuum. Where ever there is the vacuum,
the most organized part of the society will fill that vacuum without any
hardship. Power is the by-product of organization. When there was no written
agreement, people started to segregate to their ethnicities.
▪ A constitution of any country is primarily a social contract, between the
masses and between the masses and the government. The social
contract that enjoys the favour of the masses it will help the state bind
together, on the other hand, if a constitution is imposed upon you
without public will, which cannot be a social contract.
▪ In a constitution, there is political compromise (it gave you
senate).Seats, quota system, water distribution. Based on the
population it gave you Provincial assembly.
▪ Rule & regulation. Substantive laws etc. (this part of the constitution
works when the former two parts are fulfilled)

Fall of Dhaka
(Indra Gandhi “by separating Bengal from Pakistan we have drowned the two nation
theory in the bay of Bengal.” In fact, two nation theory would been drowned had
Bangladesh rejoined India)

We tried to rule Bengal on classical model of colonization. Raw material form East Pakistan to
industries in West Pakistan.

Happier provinces make stronger Federations.

21 February is the day when Bengali students, when they were protesting for their mother
language, were murdered by Police of Pakistan.

Political representation, their right, was denied. In spite of being more in number we said that
we will apply parity formula. 56% reduced to 50 % and West Pakistan’s 46% increased to 50%.
 Equal seats were given. Hence the right of one person one vote principle was breached. This was
discrimination not equally.

Discarded provinces and made one unit. East Pakistan, West Pakistan.

Development; 1950-1970. Pakistan had total spends of 21 billion. East Pakistan got 7 billion,
WestPakistan got 14 billion. Twice as much to half no.of people. Half as much to twice no.of
people.

16 December 1971 Bengal got its freedom.National day 26 march

in July 1995 of more than 8,000 Muslim refugees in the Bosnian town of Srebrenica over a brutal 72
hours. For people of dif ferent races, religions and ethnic backgrounds to live together it is vital
they develop a high degree of tolerance and respect each other`s culture, language, ways of
living and religious practices. There has to be justice and fairness when dealing with people from
different ethnic and cultural backgrounds. There is nothing worse than the exploitation of one
group by another to foment the seeds of discontent, which, nurtured by more exploitation over
time grows enough to explode one day. People must be allowed to decide their own fate good
or bad. Tito used force to keep the union of Yugoslavia intact. But when he died, the old fault
lines resurfaced leading to the break-up of the country.
Yugoslavia also provides many parallels to what happened in East Pakistan leadingto the
creation of Bangladesh and both provide stark lessons for what is happening in Balochistan.
Sadly, we are not heeding the lessons but keep repeating the same mistakes.

➢ Ethno-religious Dimension
o Soon after independence Pakistan was engulfed with religious
controversies (Ahmadi Issue in 1951) & ethnic controversies (Muhajir-
Maqami in Karachi in 1960).
▪ 1953 Lahore was affected so much so that curfew were placed in
order to control the situation. People were burning the houses of
Ahmadis. City level martial law was imposed in 1953.
▪ 1974 Ahmadis were declared non- Muslims under the second
amendment of the Constitution.

This fanned the fire of religious intolerance. And during Zia’s regime it were at its zenith. He introduced
too much religion into public domain & that too much religion instead of integrating the nation further
divide it. Good Muslims and Bad Muslims concept was introduced. The yard stick of patriotism was how
much one looks Muslim. He introduced the Saudi Brand of islam & found a punching bag in the form of
Shias in the country. Sectarian violence started and iran jumped to rescue shia. When Pakistan was busy
fighting US’ war in Afghanistan it itself became a battle ground of Saudi & Iran in the form of proxy war.
During this era all the groups were form. MQM, sipa sahaba, Lashkar jangvi. Death of Dialogue, if you
don’t agree with me you deserve to die. Pakistan could not avoid this mire so far.

➢ Trans-National Influence
o During Zia’s reign 4 million foreigners (still 1.8 million stays ) came to
Pakistan. These aliens were not concerned with the constitution of
 Pakistan. They feel no affiliation & patriotism with Pakistan whatsoever.
There was no economy in Pakistan only war was happening. So they started
smuggling weapons, drugs, other things. They got settled here. As they had
linkages across the border, they were used as non-state actors to facilitate
activities on both side of the border & eventually they became part of that
vicious cycle. This change the national social fabric of the area.
➢ Education System
o We have three Parallel education system. Cambridge, public and Private
schools & Madrassah system (madrassah of different sects). These three
system abhor each other one holds the other responsible for the
dilapidated condition of Pakistan. The liberal blame clerics for the plight of
the country and clerics blame liberals for not following the guidance of
Islam. Some say Quaid was a stanch Muslim other say he was a Ismaili shia,
an agent of British. The liberal says he was a secular barrister.
They have different ideals. The social studies textbooks of government
schools are against the Hindus while you have 5 million Hindus living in
Pakistan. Two children of different religion studying the same textbook,
how integrated would they feel towards each other. “Nations are built in
classroom not in battle fields” our books are mushroomed with the stories
of battles so much so that you have stories of Tariq bin ziyad. When we
teach violence, we are normalizing violence. And they see killing as an
ultimate solution to the end of a problem.
If you want to be an Islamic state then the Friday sermon should also be
state issued. And the marrasah system should be such that it produce
judges, CSPs not only clerics. And you do not follow that they stickto want
Quaid said “state has nothing to do with your religion, it has only to do with
how much productive citizen you are”.
o India as country will go to hell because it’s a Non- Muslim country &
Pakisatan asa a country will go to paradise because it’s a Muslim Country.
Its not like that. It has to do with individual. In Quran states are not
addressed instead, individuals are addressed. Religions belongs to humans
not to things and organizations.
o Objective resolution says that “sovereignty belongs to ALLAH that shall be
exercised by people through their elected representatives, who shall act or
use it as a sacred trust” in political science if ALLAH is sovereign then
constitution is different, if Parliament is Sovereign then constitution is
different, if people are sovereign then constitution is different.
If we say ALLAH is sovereign then your constitution shall not be against
Islam.
(the paper money has written on it that it has a value, government has
equal amount gold of reserve against that money with them). When you
pay the value that is allowed due to inflation the value of money decreases
with time, in the bank documents it is written that projected profit will be
 this percent. When you predetermined that on 100 rupees I will charge 150
after 5 years that is riba.

Yasir Farhad
Lecture 2

Factors of Convergence

➢ Territorial contiguity
o If any province, God forbid become separated from the Pakistan. They will
have to face three hostile neighbors. Territory of Pakistan is such that each
province is dependent upon other for water so it is not viable for any of the
province to be a separate country.
➢ 1973 Constitution
o It is the only consensus based Document. It complies all the conditions of
the coming together federation.
▪ Territorial integrity –article 239- subcause4- (without the consent of
the province no divisions in a province shall be made)
▪ Political autonomy was promised.
▪ Culture identity -article 28-
▪ Institutional mechanism (get your grievances resolved through table
talk) Council of Common Interest (CCI) -article 154,155-
(8 members) PM, 3 federal ministers, 4 CM.
No special power with anyone, 5 votes can win any
decision. Hence no need to ignite any movement for
independence. Interest is prosperity of Pakistan, vision can
be different.
▪ National Economic Council (NEC) –article 156- (8 member with
additional 1 member per province) uniform economic policy
making in such a way that no province feel marginalized.
(ECNEC)Executive Committee of the Nation Economic
Council, which is required to review national economic conditions
and advise the federal and provincial governments to formulate
financial, commercial, social and economic policies. The NEC
isrequired to meet at least twice a year. The record of NEC
meetings is not enviable either. During recent times, Shahid
Khagan Abbasi was the only prime minister to hold six meetings
during his brief term which translates into almost seven meetings
per year. Nawaz Sharif could barely manage to hold one per year
on average whereas the current government has also held only
three in the past 40 months.
(NFC) National Finance Commission –article 160 , PM will head. As
most issues are upon finance distribution, so constitution has
 provided you this form to resolve the issues. When an agreement
is made it is called NFC award, valid for 5 years. Then you have to
make another NFC award after that. If the new NFC could not be
reached, the finance distribution will be upon the previous NFC
award. Till date 7 NFC awards have been given.
▪ 18th Amendment, April 2010, has also played a vital role in national
integration. –article 1- NWFP to KP, a recognition of Pashtun
brethren. SindH H was added, Balochistan U was replaced by O. if
they feel Baluchistan feel colonial then let be it with Baluchistan.
o It also abolished the Concurrent Legislative List. Among
47 subjects, 40 were handed over to the provinces. For
the first time provinces felt administratively and
financially autonomous. It the promise of the 1973
constitution which you fulfilled not a separate favour. If
a government says we are left with nothing after giving
to provinces, they need to realize that provinces make
Pakistan.
o 20 new institutions were formed in the provinces.
o Natural resources; Except Oil & Gas all other minerals
are under the provincial government. And on every
barrel of Oil & Gas royalties shall be paid to that
province. In 7th NFC award Balochistan had 60 arab
royalty and that had been given to them over the period
of 5 years 12 arab per year.
o For DAM construction in any Province NOC shall be
issue by that province. small dams can be constructed
by province itself.

That’s why the movements after this constitution were not about independence but
about the rights that were promised in the 1973 constitution should be delivered.

Article 89 is about ordinance: when there is an urgent need for the law making and
calling the parliament is not possible then ordinance is formed. It can be a mollified but
is not unconstitutional.
▪ When an ordinance is passed and later when the assembly grant
it a blanket approval it will stay as ordinance, assembly will
approve it and will become our substantive law.
▪ When an ordinance, came under dictatorship, is looked at later
by the assembly and it made few changes then it will be called
an Act.
 Should there be more Provinces?

➢ More provinces more would be more costly to govern.

➢ Is there any guarantee that the smaller uni will not divide further on the basis of ethnic lines.
E.g. if south Punjab is declared a new province, another province, Sarikistan, will emerge. Where
would the bug stop.
➢ The elites of that region will dominate smaller units. Commonality will not be herd then.
➢ You cannot make another province out of the existing province with out the consent of that
province. Hazara province cannot be sketched out of KP without the consent of KP.

Why is there a demand for more provinces?

➢ We should nip the cause in the bud instead of making new provinces we should
focus on the causes that ignite the slogans for the formation of new provinces
o Bad governance
o Government are not getting to the peripheries.
o Lack of Food , Water, Jobs, Recognition.
o No smaller divisions. Tahsils.

How to make a new province?

o As India did, State & Boundary Commission in 1994, they suggested that
where language changes a new province was made in 7 years. 8 to 28.
o Its not about just the formation of new provinces, provinces have to
contribute to the NFC, and if they are self-sustaining only then they can
contribute.
o Instead of forming new provinces, a robust Local Governing System –
article 140a- (it is mandatory for every province to form local governing
system & that should be able administratively, legally & financially
delegated by the province) should be formed. That could sort out the
problems at lower level.

Yasir Farhad
Lecture 3

Way Forward to improve national integration

o Equitable distribution of resources

▪ According population.
▪ Government should recognize it masses, reach to the
peripheries, eradicate sense of deprivation
o Continuity of political process ensuring pluralism
▪ By conducting elections again and again. When you indoctrinate
the minds of people that through vote they can change the fate
of the country. People will come and integrate & will hold the
leadership accountable as well. Bridge the gap between.
Democracy is a pain staking slow process but it’s a process that
is closer to human nature. Human get corrected through trial &
error the same way democracy does. It took Europe 100 of
years. We have limited elections. While in America people go to
polling every year for, mayor, senator, governor, provincial
assemblies, congress, president.
People should note vote the candidate on the basis of the sects
and linguistic rather, they should vote on the basis of nationalist
interest only, it is necessary to force them to stick to the
nationalism politics.
❖ In pakistan democracy stays only till the election day. It
is only the system of selecting the leadership, it is not
the form of government. On the contrary it is the form
of government. Inclusive decision making, parliament
supremacy, transparent system. We cast vote and then
forget, they take votes and start to live like kings.
Vigilant citizenship is the guardians of successful
democracy.

➢ Rule of Law and Good Governance

▪ Nothing integrates better than rule of law & good
governance. Rule of law means that government has not
favorites. All are equal. It not single out or marginalize
anyone. Unfortunately Pakistan has failed in this. Ahmad-
Pur Oil tanker incident, knowing that it was a crime to steal
the oil. When the tanker burst, the casualties were granted
with 20 lacs rupees & injured were to be treated by the
government & 5 lacs were distributed.
Hazara had to keep 100 bodies in Balochistan just to
register FIR. What would happen if they pick up gun and
they seek justice by themselves, they would be called
terrorists. Then government will be ready for table talk.
➢ Conduct Census
▪ To monitor how many persons are there and how should the
resources be equally distributed among them. Constitution
mandates that census be held every 10 years. Its not just a head
count it also tells how many houses are mud houses and how many
are not. Age groups etc. On that basis you make policy. 2017 census
was conducted after 19 years, 1998, and that too was not accurate.
 If you were a foreign donner, how much would you trust such a
country?
Census is important for better future economic planning, tax
resource mobilization and efficient allocation of financial resources
for socio-economic development.
The Census directly affects the number and size of the national,
provincial and local constituencies a province or a district gets, as
well as, the allocation of financial resources to the province under
the NFC award. For some, it significance lies in the relationship with
the allotment of quota to different regions or segments of the
population in federal and provincial jobs.
• CCI has decided to organize a new Census before
2023 elections. As Sindh govt., MQM &Opposition
parties in KP expressed their concerns over dubious
2017 census. According to Sindh Chief Minister, the
population of Sindh& Balochistan have been
undercounted. To back this claim, he ha cited a
Unicef survey which lists average members of a
household at 7.2 for Sindh, while the Census results
put the number of the average household at 5.64.
This makes, according Unicef survey, Sindh’s
population as 61m, and according to official head
count makes it 48m people.
▪ MQM have grievances that the muhajirs are counted less. Once you
acquire the citizenship you are not a muhajir anymore. And present
that group as a pressure group needs to be stopped. Why make it us
against them.
▪ Linked with the NFC award, KP rejoiced with a higher than
anticipated NFC share while Punjab received commiserations for its
shrinking share.

What is the point of this new hastily planned census? It is clear that
the motivation for the haste in planning and executing a full census
five years after a failed 2017 census is politics and not the need for
data to plan for resource allocations.
▪
➢ FATA reforms
▪ It should be implemented in letter & spirit.
➢ Media
➢ Ethnic factors should be considered while making National Policies.
 Challenges to National Security & sovereignty of Pakistan

National security, Border security. This definition has evolved with time.

Sovereignty (internal aspect), is the supreme power of the state of which nothing is above or beyond the
jurisdiction. (external aspect), capacity of a state to take independent decisions without any fear of
favour from international organization or a country.

➢ Conventional Security challenges

o Neighborhood crisis (you are as a secure a nation as your relation with
your neighbors) (niccolo Machiavelli in The PRINCE “all your neighbors
are your potential enemies attack them when they are not ready”)
▪ Neighbours are much like relatives you cannot pick you
relatives.
▪ With India, we have a bitter history of partition. We feel
existential threat against them since day one. Un-decisive wars
as compare to decisive wars are much bad. Bcz both parties
claim victory. And they are again motivated to fight again. Trust
deficit is crated and in these circumstances, the one who talk
peace and trade is labeled traitor. And the issues for which the
wars are fought are still not resolved in these un-decisive wars.
Sometimes, developments start from informal meetings like
modi wishing Nawaz on his birthday but we started calling him
traitor. Two nuclear states pose threat to region and world.
▪ With Afghanistan, the Durand line 2611 km, Afghan say that it
was, a bilateral agreement, an agreement between two parties
and now one party, British (amir abdur rehman & Mortimer
Durand in 12 nov 1893), does not exist hence the Durand line is
no more valid. So technically the Pashtun territories till attack of
Pakistan shall become part of Afghanistan. However, the state
succession law says that if a country has succeeded an already
existing county peacefully, it is bind to follow the state
agreements of the former state. Same is our case, there was
peaceful devolution of power from British hence we are bound
to follow those agreements. And that already does not apply
because in LOYA JIRGA people FATA decided to go with Pakistan
instead of Afghanistan. They claim Pakhtunistan was given a
choice for its freedom. Pakistan came into being on the basis of
Indian independence act and this act does not grant a right to
any province to choose from independence, India or Pakistan. It
was only granted to the princely states. We also have another
issue of strategic depth, enough space within a country that
incase of war it has the capability to engage it in its own
territory for a longer period of time. Pakistan has always tried to
 bring pakistan favoured government in Afghanistan and that
would be enough for our second strike capability. Therefore,
India has its own policy regarding Afghanistan as distant
neighbor. 1979 jhad we tried and remained a part of it till now.
A common Afghani thinks that (a) Pakistan is part of the
problem than a solution (b) India is closer to Afghanistan; India
is the 2nd largest investor in Afghanistan. India has 20 consulates
in Afghanistan.
Despite the socio- cultural and religious ties our relations with
afghan have never been productive.
▪ Iran, we had very good relation along with Turkey till 1979
throughRegional Cooperation for Development (RCD). In 1979
we Pakistan started importing the Saudi brand of Islam to
Pakistan in the same year Iran decided to turn itself into a shia
country. Due to which the relations between these two
countries were spoiled. Iran started to blame us for a Sunni
terrorist organization (Jandullah, their leader Abdur rehman
rege was a Baloch, who was executed by Iran) in Iran. We tried
to play a neutral role between Saudi & Iran.
We also have a border issue with them related to smuggling.
▪ China, we chant different slogans but would china physically
come and fight besides us against India. Their economies are
interdependent upon each other. During Balakot incident China
did not condemn India. China did not veto the second motion
raised against jaish Muhammad’s declaration as a terrorist
group.
▪ Rise of non- state actors post 9/11 has emanated out of this.
In war against terror we have bore the most. Even today it is a
major threat.
▪ Water issue with india
▪ Civil military relations
▪
o Challenge to our Sovereignty/ the Economic Challenge
▪ Pakistan’s TAX to GDP ratio is 12% . 88% are from indirect taxes
(its regressive in nature. both poor and rich give the same
percentage of tax. Sales tax is same for everyone. It should have
been that with increase in wealth percentage of tax should also
have increased) (consumer price index, says that there should
be no price increment on edibles so that a freelance could also
purchase something for his family)(on luxury items tax shall in
increased and imposed)(form a documented economy)(tax
payers are some business men &government employees & they
pay double tax, income tax & sales tax that does not apply on
that, but nobody is free to collect all the data of spending of the
 whole month and how difficult it would be to refund all these
from FBR)& borrowings from external & internal organizations.
If the net borrowing is 50%. Through this you will reach the
break even. Still you are not a stable country because you have
to return the loans. IMF & World banks are not charity
organzations, they judge whether the country is capable of
returning the loan or not. They know that you would hardly be
able to reach break even that is why they give you a set policy
to make sure you return their loans. (IMF Programme) They
dictate you to increase the tariff on electricity. Remove the
subsidy. To make sure that the policy is implemented they send
their people for key positions. e.g. finance minister. That’s why
we cannot form an independent policy or an independent
stance. Black ECO/UNREPORTED ECONOMY
▪ When government go hard on bank account people start
keeping money in their safes, so it should be stream lined
gradually.
Never legislate if you cannot implement it.
▪ Pakistan’s government per capita is ranked at 140th
▪ INCOME 1500 DOLLAR….S KOREA 25K DOLLAR…….

➢ Non-conventional Security challenges

o Food Security.
▪ UNO says 37 % of the population in Pakistan are malnourished.
▪ Only 45 % of the children have a standard growth.
▪ First national food policy was put on paper as late as 2018.
▪ We are continuously losing land to water logging & Salination.
▪ We are growing horizontally not vertically. We are consuming
more land and housing less people. No urban planning. Private
sector took charge of the housing schemes hence more
cultivable land was lost.
▪ 3rd most water stressed country according to IMF
▪ 4th highest use of water according to IMF.
▪ According to the World Resources Institute’s “Aqueduct Water
Atlas”, Pakistan ranks 14th on the list of countries facing high
water risk. India on 13th& Qatar topping the list followed by
Lebanon, Israel,iran..

Yasir Farhad
Lecture 4

o Population Explosion
 ▪ Refugees problem. They have been here for 2 generations; got
ID cards, inter marriages, they own properties while refugees
cannot. When it suits them, they become refugee and when it
suits them, they become citizen. They enjoy both citizenship of
both countries. Computerized ID cards were made on the basis
of previous cards. It is difficult to distinguish.
▪ Every 6th second a child is born.
▪ After 30 years down the line. Punjab’s population will be the
same to that of Pakistan’s population today.
(make a skilled youth, encourage entrepreneurships,)
o Environment
▪ According to UNO ¼ of a country should be forest, minimum
12.5% global. Pakistan is 5.7% forest.
▪ Untreated toxic waste in the running steams, these are directly
connected to the rivers. Hence polluting the rivers and
intoxicate the agriculture product, emanating food caused
disease.
▪ Solid waste management. A person generates approx. 2.5 kg of
waste.

➢ Counter Argument
o Pakistan is transforming into a potentially stable democracy
▪ it might not look like an achievement. This suffice that people of
Pakistan donot want martial law.
o Gradual transformation to institutionalization
▪ Very slowly but institution became stronger in itself and work in its
domain. Judiciary, before iftikhar took action public did not speak,
now when saqib nisar took action on dam and his visits to the
prisons, people rebuke his actions. ECP as an independent
institution etc.

Social media and freedom of expression are the major reasons behind
this change.

o Politically conscious generation

▪ Inquisitive to know both side stories and more into dialogues.
o Winning the war against terrorism
▪ Won the war on our conditions. Resilient nation, standing against
any crisis. They cannot change our way of life.
▪ Saw Growth in economy before corona
▪ Rise in Small scale economy
▪ 4.% growth rate. Inflation lowered to 58%
o Special economic zones through CPEC, assess to trade with C.A and Iran
▪ For that, political will and economic vision is needed
 o Korea and Pakistan cannot be compared. Korea has only 50million
population almost of same ethnicity, they have never had disintegration
issue. There to reach a unanimous public opinion is not a big deal. They do
not have a potential enemy at their doorstep. They have not fought 4
conventional wars. Here, dialect gets changed after every 100 KM.
different sects exist. It is difficult to get a single consensus.

How Pakistan saw a surge in its economic growth in the period of military
Dictatorship?
▪ In Ayyub’s era Oct 1958. Dec 1958 Pakistan allowed US to use its airbases. Bad beer airbase, U2
surveillance plane over USSR. We became part of the cold war and we were grated a lot of
money by the US, artificial economy in terms of cash. When Ayyub khan went economy
nosedived. The Dams were built in compensation of the Indus water treaty when we sacrificed
the three eastern tributaries by the consortium of 11 countries.
▪ During Zia’s reign, 1978 onwards our economy built on external cash flow for Jihad in
Afghanistan. Flow of petro-dollars.
▪ During Musharraf’s era, our economy was boosted by the war on terror in the form of cash
economy. No land reforms, no institutional formation.
▪ We could not get even pure dictatorship. Ayyub, Zia & Musharraf after two years brought back
the same people in the government against whom he has imposed martial law. Lee Kuan Yew,
Singapore PM pure dictator, changed the fate of the country from third world to first world.
President Nick FricanoIndonesia.
▪ Our constitution outlaws military coup; any abrogation of the document is an act of high treason
as per Article 6.

Yasir Farhad
Lecture 5

For extradition the committed crime has to be considered crime in both countries.

International Security
If your borders are secure. With time its concept evolved. After cold war its spectrum got widen.
Economic war, ideological propaganda warfare, strategic warfare.
➢ International has changed to Climate change, terrorism, deadly diseases.
➢ Efforts taken by the Organizations
o To prevent 3rd world war.
o Environmental hazards, deadly diseases
o Poverty, hyper nationalism, civil war, political instability

Different tiers of international security

➢ If an Individual, regardless of country and creed, is a victim of a threat:it can be physical or
economic well-being. International actors want to sustain peace so they will consider as an
international security and will help in different ways to mitigate the problem.
➢ If a state is a victim, threat will be its territorial integrity & sovereignty.
➢ If a region is a victim, threat will be its regional cohesion & economic interdependence. Its
unique in the way that a region can also feel threatened by one of its states.
➢ If the world(political term, combination of countries) itself is a victim, its political arrangement
(currently we live in Nation state system, organized by UNO) will be disturbed. Before loyalties
were not confined to nations, rather it were to the king, wherever he ruled, his subjects were
allowed to move freely in those lands. After 1948, loyalty shifted to the enation states.
➢ If the Globe (geographic term, combination of earth, water & environment) is a victim, threat
will be to its environment, sustainability.

Tools for the maintenance of the international security

➢ Balance of power. Time tested tool. There shall be no country in a region allowed to be too
powerful to nudge around rest of the countries. Similarly, a country in region would not be left
too meagre that an adversary might attack it. England made tie with Belgium to protect it. Prior
Second World War, Cold war. As in international theory, it is not valid contemporarily.
➢ UN, UN security. It checks day-to-day peace. Maintains cease fire, Human welfare. And
Economic & Social norms (ECOSO), UNESCO & UNODC fall under it.it has proposed SDGs,,
mother child care, polio vaccination, eradication of child labour, slavery eradication.
➢ Nuclear security. USA 1945, USSR 1949, England 1952, France 1960, China 1964. They followed
the MAD theory. So never attacked each other. Non-Proliferation treaty signed in 1960s. and
implement in 1970. To stop horizontal proliferation and vertical proliferation.it has proved vital
for world security. India 1974, Pak 1998, PRK 2006, Israel non-declared, South Sudan not a
nuclear power, are non signatories of NPT.

Non-proliferation treaty. Vertical proliferation is the qualitative and quantitative increase of the
nuclear weapons. Horizontal proliferation is the number of states who possess the nuclear
weapon.

NPT has been very effective to stop the horizontal proliferation of the nuclear arms. As the
spread of nuclear weapon has been marred by this treaty to encouraging low level.

Pakistan, India, North Korea, Israel and South Sudan are the non-signatory of this treaty.

International campaign for abolishing nuclear weapon to stop vertical proliferation.

Should Pakistan sign NPT? No. even if India does sign. Because militarily we are not as strong so
nuclear our only credible deterrence, we cannot undermine it. Currently, there are 191
signatories of the NPT.

Dual use usage technology will be granted to the NPT signatory. For the IAEA has to make
inspections annually to cross check.
 o The nuclear threat which has been existentially exacerbated by the US withdrawal
from four arms control treaties: ABM, INF, Open Skies, New START may be even more
immediate. Noam Chomsky recently observed “All bars are down and we can race
towards terminal war”

➢ Negotiations
➢ Af
➢ Sffd

The two articles of constitution that are not Islamic. Article 45; it mandates the president of
Pakistan to pardon any criminal. Any criminal convicted by the Court. While in Islamic era the
Caliph could not challenge the decision of the Qazi. The other is anyone competent Muslim or
non-Muslim can become chief justice.
Article 147 of the Constitution pertains to entrusting the powers of a province to the federal
government.
➢ Equality of citizens in Pakistan although not widespread but exists.
Examples; 1965 war. Many of the armed forces personals were awarded with the equal badges
as that of the Muslim. Squadron leader SesaalChaudhryof Pak Air force was conferred upon
sitara –e- jurat in recognition of its valuable services.
General tugles Gracie was the first army chief, a Christian. ( Frank walter messervyy)
In 2000, the Balochistan High court made it verdict in Hindus’ favor and gave 200-year-old
templet back to the Hindus in Zhob district.

A decision was made in the French Christian woman in Pakistani court related to her daughter’s
custody.

Suggestion on how to improve the minority rights

➢ We need to create the acceptance of the existence of the minorities in our country.
➢ This acceptance has to be created by the help of media andalso the curriculum taught in
Pakistan’s institutions.
➢ Gazetted holidays related to religious festivals of the minorities must be reinstated in
our country.
➢ The minorities should have more seats in parliament in comparison to their population
in our country. When you were in minorities you asked for more seats in relation to your
population and now when others are in minorities in your country you are denying the
same thing.
➢ The real number of the minorities is still unknown. The government of Pakistan should
release the official data of total number of minorities living in Pakistna after 2017
census.
➢ The political parties of Pakistan must be requested to give more election tickets to
minorities in the election of Pakistan.
➢ Ministry of inter-religious harmony. Should be headed by minorities to deal with the
issues faced by the minorities effectively.
➢ More ministries should be given to minorities
➢ Pakistan must adopt a comprehensive laws to combat all forms of discrimination
suggested in para 11 of the UN committee against the elimination of racial
discrimination.
➢ Forced conversion. Article 20 of the constitution deals with the freedom to profess your
religion but not to enforce it upon others. They can fund their religious places and states
have the responsibility to defend it but not fund it.
o According to the Minorities Alliance Pakistan, over 1000 minor girls are
abducted, raped, forcibly converted and forced into marriages.
o Ministry of Religious Affairshas stopped the proposed bill, the Prohibition of
ForcedConversion Act 2021 prepared by ministry of Human rights.
o The minorities councilors said “15 cases of forced conversions were reported in 2020
and the number rose to 60 in 2021.
`Around 70 percent of people who were converted forcibly were under 18 years of age
in 2021,”
➢ The World Report 2022, compiled by the US-based Human Rights Watch (HRW) group, In India,
allegations of torture and extrajudicial killings persisted with the National Human Rights
Commission registering 143 deaths in police custody and 104 alleged extrajudicial killings in the
first nine months in 2021.
o in 2021, the Pakistan government intensified its efforts to control the media and curtail
dissent.Authorities harassed, and at times detained, journalists and other members of
civil society for criticising government officials and policies. Violent attacks on members
of the media also continued.
 1973 Constitution of Pakistan
Preamble (Not implementable): objective resolution. It is also an Islamic provision.

Islamic Provisions in the constitution

➢ Article 1; country is called as Islamic Republic of Pakistan.
➢ Article 2; states about the state’s religion. Islam shall be the state religion.
➢ Principles of policy (Not implementable):Articles 29-40. The guiding principles. State
should implement it if it has enough resources. But it would not be held to the book for
its not implementation. These also have Islamic provisions. E.g., it says that state is
responsible to have Islamiate included as a compulsory subject in the curriculum.
Flawless Quran. Conducive environment for Islamic way of living; that is why
government impose Ehteraam-e-Ramazan ordinance etc.
Repugnancy clause; it states that if a new law is promulgated then it should bear
relevance to this article. If it is otherwise then the law will be null and void but the
clause will not be changed.
➢ Article 8 is a repugnancy clause; no law shall be passed that may undermined the basic
human rights, as enshrined in the constitution.
Republic means, sovereignty of the people.
The chapter; Islamic Provision,starts at Article 227 and ends at 231.

➢ Article 227 is also a repugnancy clause; no shall be made against Quran and Sunnah and
all existing laws shall brought into conformity with Injunction of Islam.
➢ article 228; Council of Islamic Ideology CII. This body shall consist of a minimum 8 clerics
and max 20 including a female and clerics from all the sects being practices in the
country. This body shall advise Majlis-e- Shura (the parliament) whether a law is Islamic
or not. However, this advice is not binding. Because Majilsi-e-shura is the top most body
and Sadi-o-ameen people there they know the best.
➢ In the second amendment of the constitution, Khatm-e-nabowat clauses were added.
➢ Oathcontain, text related to Khatm-e-naboowat.
➢ Head of the state and head of the executive have to be Muslims.
➢ During zia’s tenure. Article 203-C; Federal Sharia Courts and Sharia applet beach were
introduced. (these were introduced as a solution to; as the president cannot force a
judge to resign so if a judge started making decisions against zia then he would be
transferred to these sharia courts, where no such cases exist) these courts should have
been established at trail stage as per Islamic norms. But these are made at the applet
stage, where they have not rendered a single conviction for the 40 years now. If you
dismiss them, people will take to the street chanting that Islamic way of judgement is
being quashed but they don’t know these are being paid for nothing.
 Senate is not dissolved. although National assembly has been dissolved many a time. It’s
a supervisory body.

Simple majority= 50% +1 of the present and voting members.

Absolute majority= 50 % +1 of the total members of the house. 50 % of 342 +1.
7,9,11,14 these amendments are not implemented.
➢ First amendment :- may 1974, when we recognized Bangladesh as a sovereign country.
In 1973 constitution, we had in it that East Pakistan is also a part of west Pakistan and
whenever the chance arise we will implement it there as well.
➢ Second amendment :- 7th September 1974.ahmadis were declared non-Muslims.
➢ 3rd amendment; protective custody was increased to year or two (earlier it was 30 days
and max 90 day) in Pakistan
➢ 4thamendment; the right to grantbail in the protectives custody cases was taken away
from the courts. As it is an administrative issue so they should decide.
➢ 5th amendment; seats for the minorities
➢ 6th amendment; retirement age of the superior judiciary was enhanced. for High Courts
it was made 62 and for Supreme Courts it was made 65.
➢ 7th amendment; after election of 1977. When there were allegation of rigging . and in
NA a vote of no confidence was promulgated against him. He introduced an amendment
in senate, PPP had majority in senate, that prime minister can take vote of no
confidence directly from people of Pakistan.
➢ In 1985 RCO; revival of constitution; objective resolution was shifted from preamble
and made a part of the constitution. In Article 2-A.
➢ In 1985 elections were held. And junejo was made the prime minister by Zia.
➢ 8th amendment; the assembly of Junejo made the RCO as a Constitutional amendment.
➢ 9th amendment; sharia law. President shall remain president for the rest of his life.
There shall be an ulema board that shall assist him in carrying out the affairs of the
state. It was not passed by junejo in the NA .
➢ In May 1988, he dissolved the National Assembly.
➢ 10th amendment; the gap between consective assembly session was restricted to 130.
This has become 120 days under the 18th amendment.
➢ 11th amendment; not solidified. Introduced by Benazir Butto; reserved seats for women
in every assembly.
➢ 12th amendment, 1991 by Nawaz Sharif, to curb sectarian violence; military courts were
established for 3 years.
➢ 13th amendment, power to dissolve assemblies was made redundant. And power to
appoint army chief and navy chief by president was made redundant.

➢ aimed at preventing the successive governments from misusing Article 89(2) of the
Constitution which allows the government to promulgate ordinances when the National
Assembly or the Senate is not in the session.
Through the bill, Mr Rabbani has sought an amendment making it binding upon the
government to lay the ordinance in the first sitting of either house of the parliament
after its promulgation, stating that in case of the f ailure of the government to do so, the
ordinance `shall stand repealed` automatically.

Challenges and Rights of Minority in Pakistan

➢ Jinnah was called as the ambassador of the minority right.
o He championed this stance in 1916 Lucknow pact, 1937, Delhi proposals, 1929-Fourteen
points.If ¾majority of a certain community opposes a bill, the bill cannot pass. This
made clear how a state he foresaw.
o Lahore declaration had 3 declaration. The third para is about the minority rights. It
states, “Adequate, effective and mandatory safe guard shall specifically be provided to
the minorities for their social, cultural, political and religious rights in the consultation
with them.”
o 11th august 1947, Jinnah first speech as the Governor General of Pakistan. “you are free
to go to your temples, mosques, synagogues any place of worship in the state of
Pakistan. You may belong to any caste or creed that has nothing to do with the business
of the state.” “indue course of time your will see that Hindus will cease to be Hindus and
Muslims will cease to be Muslims, not in the religious sense because that is their
personnel faith, but in the political sense as an equal citizen of Pakistan”
➢ Minorities are not getting their due rights. Apart from the major cities, their condition is bleak. If
you are having the municipal services that does not mean that,everybody around the country is
enjoying the samefacilities.

Challenges

8-28 these articles are termed as the articles of fundamental rights. It has not termed as
the rights of muslims or hindus but people of Paksitan.
➢ Right to life and security. Article-9. It’s the responsibility of the state. But in the minorities’ case
the state lags.
o JOSEPH COLONY-the whole colony was burnt to ashes with resident inside on the
account of alleged blasphemy on an individual. And not a single culprit was
apprehended.
 o Gojran tehsil in faislabad- burnt the whole street on the same allegations.
➢ Right to fair trail- Article 10 A. every individual has the right to fair trail. if the person is
impoverish and cannot afford alawyer, the state is bound to provide one.And facilitate in every
possible way.
o Asia Maseh. Had to remain in prison on baseless allegations for 8 years. Although she
got justice but the plaintiff has never been charged with fake allegations.The onus of
proving innocence lies on the accused not on the plaintiff. This has plagued the system.
o Kot rada kishan near kasoor. Upon the brawls with the owner of the brick kiln . Cristian
couple was put in the burning kiln and the owner got scotch free. This show how
desensitized the society has become.
➢ Article 19-A, freedom of information. Right to information Act. To ensure the transparency. You
can ask for any public information from any institution. Regarding their budget, transfers,
posting of a particular person over a place. If any officer holds this information on purpose, the
officer is liable to a CRPC penalty of 3years imprisonment, 50,000 fine. If any documents are
withheld by the office they have to clarify why are they doing it? (except army and judiciary)
o free speech protected under Article 19 and the right to receive information under
Article 19-A of the Constitution
➢ Inviolability of the dignity of an individual-article-14. In our society, few jobs are designated to
certain segment of the society.
➢ Right to property –article 24. Every individual has the right. August 2020, in Peshawar. A
Christian a piece of land in the Muslim populated area. Any they killed him.
➢ Freedom to profess (practice) own religion openly article-20.
o The rejection of a bill aimed at stemming forced religious conversions by a
parliamentary committee convened to address the issue. The bill says “ the proposed
age limit on conversions; and the call for a 90-day cool-off period to consider the
decision before proceeding.”
o The religious affairs minister reportedly said that the `environment is unfavourable` for
such a law, it would generate resentment that would make minorities more vulnerable.
o The failure to pass this bill also undermines the writ of the state and highlights its
inability to guarantee citizens` protection and freedom.

➢ Freedom to manage religious institution yourself article-22. Christians are not allowed.
➢ Equality of citizens’ article-25. Every citizen is equal in the eyes of law.
➢ Article 25-A, every citizen 5 -16 years has the right to get education in public school till 10grade.
If you are not getting it, you can challenge it in court.
➢ Freedom to access public places article-27. But we have put bars to not allow certain people.
Masjid is also a public place, but we have set bars on certain people to enter.
➢ Protection of achieves, language, scripts, culture of certain community has to be protected by
the state artivle-28. Kalaash people are labelled kafir. And are suppressed to be added to the
culture of Pakistan
➢ Forced conversion
o Defending the rejection of the bill, CII Chairman Dr Qibla Ayaz referred to the
constitution that said no law repugnant to the holy Quran and Sunnah could be enacted.
 `There are problems in the process of conversion by choice that a joint committee of the
religious affairs ministry and CII objected to.
o Additional Advocate General of Sindh High Court Kalpana Devi rued that the day the
forced conversion bill was rejected she felt orphaned. She asked Dr Ayaz why
conversion only happened for teen girls and that too for the purpose of marriages. `In
Sindh, only 2-3pc of my community is left as the rest have been forced tonee Pakistan
afterfacingforced conversions. We are repeatedly asked for proof of patriotism.
➢ The prime minister has apparently already assured `ulema-i-deen` that his government will not
pass legislation criminalizing domestic violence.
➢ He appears to have made a similar commitment on blocking legislation aimed at stopping the
forced conversion of minorities. As things stand, even minor, underage girls belonging to the
minority community have been abducted and forcefully converted and `married` off to Muslims.
➢ According to the recent version of the World Values Survey, a whopping 45.8 per cent and
48.6pc of respondents in Pakistan said that they do not trust people of another religion and
nationality `at all` respectively.

➢ Minorities have separate Quota of Ten seats in the national assembly of Pakistan in 2010.
➢ There are four minority quota seats in the upper house/ senate.
➢ Specific quota for minorities in all competitive examinations
➢ Specific quota for minorities in all educational institutions
➢ Specific quota for minorities in the service sector like the armed forces,medical,engineering.

We have three specific rights for the minorities, whichcollectively do not exist in any other country.

o Hindu marriage act 2017, they can register their marriages with NADRA. Earlier it was
under nikah nama.
o Sikh marriage act 2017
Even in india hindu and sikh marrieage acts are not separate
o Pakistan Christian post. News paper. Daily newspaper
➢ Pakistan is one of the few Muslim countries, where two minorities have remained the Chief
Justice. A.R cornilious & justice Rana bagwan das.
➢ THE Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government`s decision to build and restore 109 worship places and
residential areas of minority communities in the province, scale and estimated cost of the
project, Rs513m.

Constitutional/ charter/declaration/pact/agreement/convention
Amendments
When a convention or a declaration gets amended, it becomes protocol.
➢ Not constitution or charter can be amended, until the provision of the amendment is
stated in that constitution.
➢ Pakistan’s constitution is, under article 238, subjectable to amendment.
➢
➢ For a constitutional amendment the debate has to be initiated in a parliamentary
committee on constitutional reforms, consisting members of senate and N.A (equal
no.of person from both sides of the aisle). After the discussion over that amendment,
the parliamentary committee generates a bill and sends it to the National Assembly.
o Simple majority= 50% +1.
o Absolute majority= 2/3 of the total members of the house, not of the people
present.
➢ To amend the constitution the bill can be generated from any house, senate or N.A.
➢ The bill has to pass from that house with absolute majority. Then the bill moves to the
other house.
➢ If the other house passes the bill without any further amendment by absolute
majority, it directly goes to the President.
➢ The president has 10 days to sign the bill.
➢ If the other house amends the bills, then it floats back to the house it had generated
from. Now, the voting isparticularly done on that amendment.
➢ If there is a particular constitutional amendment in which the provincial boundaries of a
province has to be changed. Then the bill passed by both house cannot be sent to the
president unless this bill is passed from the provincial assembly where the alteration of
the boundary is being done.
➢ Article 239 says-Constitutional amendment cannot be challenged in any of the courts of
Pakistan. This means that parliament is most superior in the country.
o So Muto action, article184-para3 -If anything written in the constitution and is
not being implemented, here come the role of judiciary.article184-para3,
supreme court has the power to order anything if it considers….
➢ 14 amendment-
th

➢ 15th amendment/ameer ul momineen amendment (could not get approved in senate)-

Nawaz sharif will be the life the PM of Pakistan. Senate are important for federation.
➢ 16th amendment- Quota system. First it was prescribed for 20 years only as the progress
of other provinces was envisioned but due to non meeting of the goal, through this
amendment, quota was further extended for another 40 years in 1998.
➢ 17th amendment (Musharaf had taken in the reign)- (judges are asked to swear upon the
new frame work so that it becomes sacred in place of the previous one. As judiciary is
considered the custodian of the constitution. Any non-democratic govt fears its fall by
the judiciary)(in Zafar Ali Shah case the supreme court justified the martial law of
Musharaf and gave him a three year time to constitute a democratic setup ) in 2002
Musharaf introduced LFO
o
 o and power to dissolve assembly, appointments of forces chiefs, senate seats
were enhanced, 83 to 100. Graduate assembly- BA degree was made necessary.
Women reserved seats un elected. 60 in NA. 4 per province in senate.
o 2002 elections.
o Mir Zafar ullah khan jamali eas made PM and he promulgates the 17th
amendment.

Molvi tameez ud din case

Why was the constituent assembly dissolved?
The international law states that if a new country comes into being, then they have to
continue the previous law, through it was collectively governed until it makes its own
constitution.
So, Pakistan was governed through All India act with some provisions. The Article 10 of
the All India Act empowered the Governor General to dismiss any minister.
Ghulam Muhammad dismissed Khawaja Nazim ud din, then he appointed Muhammad
Ali Bogra the then serving ambassador to the USA. When M.A. Bogra fearing dismiss
through the same article removed the article 10 from the act, when the G.G was out of
the country. When he return, they the PM and G.G were at fists end on the share of
power. So, they took their case to the president of the Constituent assembly Molvi
Tameez Ud Din to decide upon it. He gave his decision in favour of the PM. So G.G
dismissed him.
Molvi tameez ud din appeared before Sindh high court that. According to the idia act.
G.G had no power to dismiss the assemblies. The English judges of Sindh High court gave
the verdict in favour of him. That we assume that assembly was never dismissed in the
first place as the G.G had not authority.
The G.G challenged the case in the federal court.

➢ Through Doctrine of necessity (that which is otherwise illegal becomes legal when there
is necessity). Justice M.M.Munir. gave verdict in favour of. G.M. but the problem was
that the this Doctrine of Necessity did not define the limit of the necessity.This prove
fatal in the future martial laws. And as the judiciary had allowed the doctrine of
necessity so they had to approve the future martial laws. (is called as the first Judicial
martial) due to this 47 other laws made by the constituent assembly became null and
void which open a gate of litigations in the courts of the plaintiffs and accused.
Yousuf Patel case.
➢ Ghunda act of Sindh.
o Yousuf patel was granted post facto approval by the G.G
➢ Gs
➢ G
➢ s

Dosoo case
➢ Judicial review. If the executive or the legislature of a state pass an order or law that is
contradictory to the already established constitution, Then the supreme court has the
power to dismiss this new order or the law, because the judiciary says that the
constitution is the supreme law of the land.
➢ In 1957-58, in Balochistan a law was being implemented called FCR 1901. Frontier crime
regulation. Dosso was a person in the Loralai District. He murdered a person. The Jirga
conviced him and annoced the punishment. His relatives file a case in the Lahore High
court. And said that the decision made the Jirga was against the constitution of 1956.
The article-5 justice will be dispensed to everybody , and article-7 everybody has a right
to fair trail, are contradictory to FCR. But Jirga did not granted us any of these. So
according to the judicial review the FCR was contradictory to the constitution. The court
acquitted Dosso.
➢ The state questioned the supreme court that if other decisions were made according to
the FCR prior to Dosso so what should be done to them?
➢ The supreme court said that we will make our decision on 13-10-1958.
o On 7-10-1958 martial law was called and the constitution was abolished.
o On 10-10-1958, the president Ayub Khan gave LFO.
o
➢ Justice M.Munir , hence keelson’s theory of legal positivism “in the normal running of
government, there is an unconstitutional change happens. And if the masses do not
protest against that unconstitutional change, then that unconstitutional change will be
considered a constitutional change”
o Hence validating the martial law. Had he not done so, he could have not justified
his prior decision of the doctrine of necessity.
o And dosso also got away with the murder
➢ The recent example of the Asia Masih case. Salman Tahsir was murdered because he
took his stance in favor of Asia Masih. Mumtaz qadri was awarded death penalty by Asif
saeed khoosa. He also acquitted Asia Masih.
o Had he not acquitted Asia Masih suspicions would have rosed about his earlier
decision in which he awarded death penalty to Mumtaz Qadri. So to avoid the
contradiction he had to follow suit.
There were 19 constitutional amendments
o 19th
▪ A-for the appointment of judges, prime minister was added. Supreme
judicial commission was made in 18th amendment- it will give
nominations to the parliamentary committee, it will forward it to
president and by his signing judges of the Supreme Court. Now, in 19th
amendment it will go to PM before going to president. (Before the judges
were appointed by the president in consultation with chief justice. Which
got rotten over the period of time as everyone wanted to post his
favourites)
In 18th amendment a judicial commission was set. A nine member
committee, 1 chief justice of Pakistan , 4 next most senior judges of
supreme court, 1 federal law minister, 1 attorney general of Pakistan, 1
advocate of supreme court- for 2 years recommended by the pak bar
council, 1 ex-chief justice of Pakistan for 2 years recommended by chief
justice. They will recommend one person for one vacancy. When they
recommend the names they will send it to the parliamentary committee.
Where 8 members. 4 from NA 2 from govt. 2 opposition. 4 from Senate 2
govt. 2 opposition. If they reject a candidate by 3/4th majority. The reason
of rejection has to be submitted to chief justice.
▪ B-High Court of Islamabad was renamed to Islamabad High Court
▪ C-lucky Marwat + Tank were excluded from PATA and merged into FATA.
th
o 20 – interim Government/ caretaker Government. Before this the caretaker
setup was run by the running government and it was brutally opposed by the
opposition. Now, after the 20th amendment, the PM andthe opposition leader
would constitute/form a committee of 8 members, 4 govt. 4 opposition. In 3days
span they will decide the interim PM and his cabinet. Same in the Provinces. The
CM and opposition leader will make a committee and the same procedure as
above will follow. If they failed to do so. The matter will be forwarded to the
Election commission of Pakistan and it will decide.
o 21stin 2015– military courts. The establishment of the Military courts for the
period of 2 years. There was a sunset clause, which states that this amendment
is valid for only 2 years
o 22nd–Election Commission. Grade 22 officers can be appoint as the members of
the Election Commission. Earlier, only retired Judges were to appointed. And the
retirement age of the Chief Election Commission increased to 65 to 68. Members
62 to 65. According to the constitution of Pakistan, the judges retirement age at
supreme court is 65 years and high court judges is 62.
o 23rdin 2017–re-establishment of the military courts for another 2 years.
 o 24th– seats adjustment of the National Assembly. Total 342, Punjab 191 before
2017 census, now it were reduced to 183. 4 were allotted to KP and 4 to
Balochistan. Written in the Article 51 of the constitution.
o 25th-
o 26th- 24 PA,12 NA
➢ sdf

Constitution evolution
➢ Formation of Pakistan was on the basis of the Indian independence act. According to
this. The interim constitution of both India and pakistna would be India act of 1935.
However, they can make their own in the meanwhile. On 26 January 1950, India
promulgated it constitution ‘yom-e-jumhoria’. On 23 march 1956, Pakistan promulgated
its constitution. The holiday of 23 march is celebrated since then. ‘Yom-e-jumhoria’. In
158 Ayyub took hold and abolished the constitution. In 1959, therefore to avoid any
shame, Ayyub displayed the military arsenal on that day and was named as Pakistan
day. In addition, the holiday was justified by saying that the Lahore/Pakistna resolution
had been passed on that day. In fact, the Lahore resolution was announced on 24th of
March.

Center province relation after 18th Amendment

➢ After 18th amendment the education policy formation has to be choice of the province. So SNC
cannot be applied. If they enforce it on any province and they reject to apply it then the
government officials blame them.

Background

➢ In the 1973 constitution Pakistan was declared a parliamentary form of government.

➢ After the 8th amendment in the constitution . Pakistan’s president zia ul haq tie to convert
parliamentary form into presidential . and to have some powers . 58 2(b) article was added.
According to which the president of paksitan can at any time dissolve the national assembly.
➢ 13th amendment in the 1997 PLMN had 2/3rd majority of total 207 seats. Abolished the 58 2 (b)
and Pakistan was reinstated to parliamentary form of government.
➢ 1999, Musharraf came. In 2003, abolished the 13th amendment by 17 amendment and
reinstalled the 58 2 (b) to make it presidential form of government.
➢ April 2010, zardari government through 18th amendment reinstated

Salient features of 18th amendment

➢ The constitution of 1973 in its real sense. Parliamentary form of government was back.
➢ Provincial autonomy. Every province having the independent power to make its laws.
(decentralization of power= when center vest power to province. Devolution of power= when
 from province the power is distributed to the grass root level.)We granted the autonomy that we
had promised at the time of joining to Pakistan.
➢ The 17th amendment of general Musharraf passed in 2003 was repealed.
➢ The LFO was gen. Musharraf of 2002 was repealed. LFO is a law on the basis of which the
country would operate until a new constitution is promulgated.
➢ NWFP was renamed was renamed as Khyberpakhtoon Khawa.
➢ Article 6 of the constitution was amended and the word “abrogate” = suppress, was added, if
anyone even suppresses the constitution will be tantamount to high treason. According to high
treason act of1973 ”. (Because in the 1973 constitution it was written that if anyone abrogates
the constitution have to be meted with capital punishment. So Ayyub khan did not abrogate the
constitution instead suppressed it)
o 6-A, anyone on abets, aids, facilitates or validates such subversion , such abrogation or
amendment. That person will also be liable to high treason.
➢ Three new fundamental rights were added in the constitution. 10 A= right to fair trial, 19 A=
right to information––all public information that affects you directly or indirectly. New taxes etc.
not security information is to be provided, 25 A= right to free education.
➢ Article 58 2 (b) was eliminated.
➢ 4 minority seats were added in the senate making the strength to 104 from 100. One seat each
for each province.
➢ Article 63 A of the constitution was amended which give the power to a political party to
dismiss any member of its party who violates the party discipline. (it is written in this that if vote
of confidence in being casted then, you cannot go against the party’s stance.). it is also written
that according to the following conditions (election for the PM & CM, vote of confidence or no
confidence, during a money bill or constitutional amendment) the candidate of the political
party is bound to vote for the candidate of his party
➢ Article 70 amendment, budget/money bill is the only bill that is not discussed in the senate only
in national assembly all over the world. After 18th amendment it was stated that although it has
to passed by the national assembly but a copy of the bill shall be sent to the senate.
➢ Article 72 was amended the president of Pakistan can send back any bill or amendment to the
house it originated from within ten days of its presentation before the president. This bill will be
then discussed in a joint session of the parliament which may pass (by simple majority) that bill
with or without amendment.If joint session says that there, is no ambiguity and sends it back to
the president then the president has to sign it he cannot resend it. Also, after 10 days president
is bound to sign it.
➢ Article 89 and 128 were amended. President had extreme power to make laws. Presidential
order has a limit of 120 days. If that ordinance is approved by the parliament by 2/3 majority
then its is become ordinance act otherwise, it gets redundant. Same is the case with Governor
of a province but the its time is 90 days.
➢ According to article 91 restrictions on the two terms of the prime minister was removed.
➢ According to article 92 the maximum strength of federal cabinet can be 11 percent of the total
members of the parliament 342 +104= almost 49. In provincial it the 11 percent or 15. Which
ever is high. (Balochistan assembly has 65 member)
➢ According to article 93 five special assistant can be kept by PM..
➢ Article 100. Private practice was discontinued for any individual who has been/ had been the
attorney general or the advocate general.
➢ Articel104, the speaker of the provincial assembly will act as an acting governor in the absence
of the Governor. (According to the article 49, the chairman senate or speaker national assembly
will be the president of the country in his absence. They cannot be out of the country all at the
same time. This in not in 18th amendment )
➢ The concurrent list (legislation that is done by federal and provincial govt.) in the constitution
was suppressed. (concurrent list wasintroduced in act of 1935 all in act, in which if the central
legislate on the same issue on which the province has already donelegislation then it suppressed
by the center)
o i). Federal Legislative List [Part I (59 items & Part II (8 items)]
ii). Concurrent Legislative List (47 items)
➢ Article 143, according to this article in case of an entity with in the concurrent list on the with
the province has completed the legislation, the center can still legislate and its legislation shall
over power the provincial legislation.Article 154, CCI, council of common interest, according to
the constitution thePM will constitute a council. And is bound to have a meeting every 90 days
called by PM but, on average, it has met once a year for the last 48 years . Has 8 members, 1
PM, $ CM, 3 Federal Minister appointed by PM. Problem discussed are the problems which are
with in the federal legislative list part 2.
➢ Article 157, the central government has to take permission from the provincial government
before constructing the Hydro-electric power plants in that province.
➢ According to article 160, the share of a province with in the NFC (national finance commission)
awards cannot be less than the previous the previous NFC awards. (accordinf to the 7th NFC
award, 55 percent of the total Divisible pool goes to the provinces & 45 % of the total divisible
pool stays with the center.) The distribution among the provinces is on the basis of provincial
GDP contribution to the ecountry, urbanization, population, backwardness/poverty )(the discord
between the provinces is that each want that thae amount souhld be distribute according to a
single point in which it is vulnerabale, Sindh says gdp, Punjab population, KP poverty.) (of th 42.5
percent of the center 20 % goes to the interest on the international loans, the rest is kept to
maintain defence and all. Center says that provinces should also contribute to the debt to which
they do not accede. A strong center is needed that can coax the provinces on a common point )
➢ According to the article 161 of the constitution the net proceeds of the federal excise duty on oil
or gas shall be equally distributed among the provinces and center.
➢ Article 172, the mineral oil or natural gas with in the provincial territory or the territorial waters
adhacent to the province would be divided equally and jointly between the center and that
province. Bundle Island.
➢ Article 175 A. the appointment mechanism of the judges in the high and the supreme courts
shall be done through a judicial commission of Pakistan which will send its nominations to the
parliamentary committee which will then forward it to the president.

(to become Army Chief you have to have had headed a core command)
➢ Demerits
 o The smooth implementation of Employees Old-Age benefit Act, 1976 &companies’
profits (Workers’ Participation) Act, 1968 & the Workers’ Welfare Fund
ordinance,1971 has been seriously hampered after the 18th amendment.
▪ Provincial Employees Social Security Ordinance, 1965, rested with province.
While it should rest with federal as prior to the amendment.
o fdsFsdFs
o fsdf
➢ issues in the 18th amendment leading to the
o Financial distribution – NFC—provinces accuse that the center is not giving them
enough resources, and center is saying that provinces are not properly utilizing the
already allotted resources. Health and education. Center says Health is not being handle
efficiently by provinces. While provinces says that before 2010 what good has the
center done in the these sectors, as these take ample amount of time. Balochistan says
backwardness/poverty should be the top priority in distribution of the resources and
others say what suit them.
▪ The debt problem
▪ Less resources vs no utilization of the given resources
▪ The financial distribution criteria shall be changed
▪ Abrupt distribution of power. (more powers are vested to the provinces that
they cannot handle effectively. It should have been a step by step distribution)
▪ No clear demarcation of power. Sindh and center discord in covid school closure
and SNC and vaccine import. Police system heads appointment.
▪ Unfinished agenda. The amendments are not implemented in letter and spirit.
Divsolution of power has not been put in place so far. As in the agenda, after
the decetralzation of power, devolution of power was promised ,means the
transfer of power from the provinces to the grass root level has not been done
yet. i.e. local government system.
• Although Article 140-A of the Constitution demands that the provinces
create local governments in their jurisdictions, this has not been
implemented because of the controversy over the allocation of power
and responsibilities among the federal, provincial and local tiers.
• In terms of Articles 7, 32 and 140A (1) of the Constitution, every
province is under constitutional obligation to establish a local
government system in theprovince and to devolve political,
administrative and hnancial authority to elected representatives. Before
it was upto the provinces to form it or not.

The judgment highlighted that in terms of Article 220 of the

constitution, the federal and provincial governments are duty-bound to
assist the chief election commissioner and ECP in conducting elections
including local government elections and the commission cannot be
dictated by any executive authority of the federation or provinces.
 • Fears of the opposition taking over local institutions also keep ruling
parties in the provinces from holding local polls.
▪ No amendment related to the 18th amendment done afterwards. In the universe
if the culture and the law do not evolve with the time it becomes obsolete.
These have to be inclusive. That’s why there are amendments in the law. There
has been 26 amendments inthe 1973’s constitution.
▪ Royalty issues. Who would be the beneficiary of the royalty of the resources?
Although it has been decided according to the constitution they are not ready to
compromise.
▪ Water issue. Kala bagh dam Sindh and balochistan have reservations reagarding
th water quantity. KP and Punjab fights over the royalties. Reservoir in KP,
power plantin Punjab. Growing distrust in center and provinces.
▪ Disaster management.the policies of the national disaster management is
different as compare to that of provinces. The drainage of waste in Karachi.
Center wants to impose while Sindh resists.
▪ Health care/ education/police (asp above are allocated by center and below
that are from provincial. So are a loggers head at the appointment of the IG. As
he is the provincial head of the police) / PMS vs PAS. faces the same issue as
above due to no clear demarcation of power.
• LAHORE: Provincial services police officers have written to the chief
secretary that Police Service of Pakistan (PSP) officers have `illegally`
occupied nearly 200 seats reserved for the provincial cadre officers in
the province.
• under the provision of section 7(2) of the Punjab Civil Servants Act of
1974. `In view of above, it is humbly submitted that the postings of the
PSP officers may not be made above their scheduled posts i.e 162
shared posts in Punjab.

Solutions

▪ The CCI has to be taken into account to resolve the outstanding disputes like
water and energy problems
• The federal government has finally notified the setting up of a
permanent secretariat for the Council of Common Interests (CCI).
• The government was bound by Article 154(3) of the Constitution to set
up a permanent secretariat for the CCI
▪ To resolve the NFC awards problems, the forum of NEF has to be used.
▪ National water council of Pakistan has to look into the royalty issues emerging
out of the water dispute among the provinces.
▪ The parliamentary committee on constitutional reforms has to look into
possible constitutional reforms withinthe 18th amendment and the parliament
has to implement those constitution reforms.
▪ The provinces on the other hand have to follow a compromised politics by not
letting go the legitimate rights by giving some leverage to other provinces.
 ▪ The center has to remove the trust deficit that has been created with in the
provinces that the center is focus only on those provinces where they have the
provincial government as well.
▪ The rights of smaller provinces have to be addressed first so that it does not
affect the unity of Pakistan.
▪ For the better working of the 18th amendment the clear demarcation of the
power is pertinent so that the center-province relation should be improved.

United Nations ()
Member states: 193

To judge it functionality we have to see in what circumstances did it came into existence.

• UN is nothing but a treaty signed by different states. UN is made with the collaboration of states
and states have restricted its functionality so it has bounds thus, we cannot criticize it for not
interfering or dispensing wide range of actions.
• It is not

History:

`The charter of the United Nation was drafted and approved in 1945 at San Francisco; the treaty that
was signed there was called as treaty of San Francisco known as UN charter today.

• 1941, the declaration saint Thames palace.

• 1941, the atlantic charter
• 1942, Declaration of United Nation. This was the first time the term United Nation was coined.
Originally it had four country and expanded to 26 countries. International peace.
• 1943, Moscow and Tehran conferences
• 1944-5, Dumbarton Yalta conferences.
• 1945, San Francisco conference, in which UN comes into existence.

This was the time when WW-II was in progress.

WW-I came to cessation after the treaty of Versailles (versai) was signed in 1919. According to this
treaty, an organization was developed in the name of League of Nations. Which had the following
functions:

1. Termination of World War.

2. To maintain world peace and security.
3. To avoid the outbreak of another world war.
However, when the world was hit by the great depression towards the end of 1930s and regions started
reeling from the economic crisis. States broke into war. Resultingin failure of League of Nations,as it
could not fulfill its functions.

First World War was for the third world countries, Asia, the prized area. Whoever control this area
controls the world.

According to the UN Charter has five permanent members; USA, France, UK, China, Russia.

Chapter 1 article 1; purposes of UN for which it was formed:

1. Maintenance of peace and security.
a. To prevent war, forced occupation and promote global justice.
b.
2. Development of friendly relations among states based on the principles of equal rights
and right to self-determination (to choose of your choice of political, economic & social
status. For example in Kashmir this first right is usurped by the India govt. the resulting
the rest of the basic rights useless) of people and eliminate other appropriate barriers to
strengthen universal peace.
a. Wars break when one nation tries to implement it will its idea of right and
wrong on another.
b. Unequal cannot negotiate any term so UN brings them to a single platform.
c. In the age of alliance America formed CENTO & SEATO and put economic
incentives therefore, the economically starved countries like Pakistan sees it
lucrative to join in.
3. International cooperation.
a. Treaties generated from the UN platform UNHR 1948, UNICEF, UN convention
on the Rights of the Child. UN convention on the Law of Sea. Violence against
women, Kyoto protocol. International trade law. Outer space law. WHO.
UNESCO preserve a common heritage of Human evolution. Economic
cooperation.ICAA.
b. Similarly, if the cooperation among the states improves, the reason to fight will
decrease. And globalization will flourish. After the geneses of UN no country
has perished from the world map and has been controlled by other state in the
result of a war. Territories are returned as a result of war. But before this
platform territories changed every 100 years.Because war are often fought for
incentives and UN removed those incentives of land or other. Now, war only
include cost without any gains.
4. Provision of a platform.
a. A uniform standards of human right s and other facilities where rendered
through this platform. Setting out of common goals around the world through
this platform.
Chapter 2 principles of United Nation are mentioned.

To achieve these purposes UN was equipped with certain powers.

In Afghanistan it is not only America rather, it is ISAF (International Security Forces) which according to
the UN charter are sent by the UN. UN Security Council passed a resolution. So, UN has to Use its
member countries’ armies, some provided logistics and some personnel and some access, like Pakistan.

The NATO, CENTO & SEATO makes an arch around the Communist North.

The UN SecurityCouncil (5 +10) has 5 permanent members including the adversaries of the America, if
any one of them veto the motion raised, the decision cannot be solidified. But they did not veto it
because they had the same threat form the terrorists. If the terrorist can attack America seas apart they
can easily take the endeavor in the adjoining China or Russia next door.

Success

Largely successful but room for improvement.

• Maintenance of peace, survived the cold war era. Cuban missile crisis de-escalated.
• Non-proliferation of nuclear arms. Before the formation of the Non Proliferation treaty only
US, Russia, China, UK, France, had nuclear weapons and several decades has passed only 3
countries have acquired the nuclear weapon after that. Making this platform a success story.
• If only few states are non performing well and the rest are functioning well then it should be
considered as successful.
• It has not been granted much wide authority.
• Df
• G
• Kashmir and Palestine issues are the issues capable of disturbing peace in the near future and
they need to be resolved.

Is it relevant or irrelevant?

• If it has achieved its purpose then it is relevant.

• Its role has increased with the passing days as the technologies are getting advance and the
patience getting thin. world need a mediator to de-escalate the tensions
• Dfg
• Reduction in the
• Dfgd
• G
• Dfg

Reforms

• Power is concentrated; only three continents are having the permanent representation of the
whole world. North America, Europe and Asia. The whole Australia, South America, Africa and
whole of the Muslim world is unrepresented hence, most of the counties do not have a say in
the important decisions. That is why the sentiment against the involvement of US in the war of
Afghanistan were born.
o Need region based representation
o Proper representation would make the implementation of the decision more efficiently.
 • Financial reform. As UN is dependent of the financial resources of its member state and a large
tranche of money is funneled by US hence it can manipulate the decision making. Therefore, we
nee to evenly distribute the resources so that nobody could coerce its decision-making.
• Empowering the UN so that it can have a more coercive approach towards the transgressors. As
the Security Councilhas, the power to use force if needed that is the only UNorganization, which
is considered the most powerful organization. We do not need to disband it rather empower it
even further
• S
•

Principles of United Nation

Written in article 2 of the united nation. Principals are the guidelines, the boundaries, which
give you a shape and identity. There are 7 principles UN charter. UN act on these principals.
• Article 2- sub clause 1: Principle of sovereign equality of all members.All the state sits in the UN
at the same table when it comes to sovereignty.
• Article 2- sub clause 2: Principal of good faith. Interpreting the situations and circumstances in
positive manner. Even if the wordings of the charter is deficient.
• Article 2- sub clause 3: Peaceful settlement of disputes. Use of force shall be the last option.

• Article 2- sub clause 4: Principal of territorial integrity and political independence.

o All members shall refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity
or political independence of any state or in any other manner inconsistence with the
purposes of UN. Kulboshan Jadiv violated this clause. Abhinandhan also violated this
clause but Pak gov. applied the Geneva Convention of war. Despite it was not a war, he
was released on the basis of considered a prisoner of war.(In case of a crime, that
individual place himself in an exception area where, he cannot claim his rights.)
▪ Article 2(4): `All members shall refrain in their
international relations from the threat or use of force
against the territorial integrity or political independence of
any state`.
• Article 2- sub clause 5: Principle of assistance.
o When ever the UN to enforce its decision anywhere, the member states are required to
assist it. (direct assistance= Army, land use, financial resources.) (indirect assistance= no
state shall assist the country against which the decision is made)
• Article 2- sub clause 6: Protection of Non-membered state.
o The only treaty with cover non-members in its ambit. Because this treaty has solemnly
pledged for the maintenance of world peace.
• Article 2- sub clause 7: Principle of non-intervention. Nothing contained in the present charter
shall authorize the united nations to intervene in the matters which are essentially within the
domestic jurisdiction of any state or requires member to submit such matters to settlements
under the UN charter (Myanmar & rohengia).
o Unless it is established that a state is bent on Genocide. or the killing is constituted as
genocide. And the perpetrator of the genocide is a state.
 ▪ Genocide is not the mass killing of a group. Genocide convention says that It is
the killing on the basis of race, colour, creed, language, political ideas, gender,
sect. mass killing is not necessarily to termed as genocide, even killing of the 5
vital bodies (leader, secretary, spokesperson etc.) of a particular group is
termed as genocide. Even halting their natural reproduction is termed as
genocide. Killings in Balochistan is not a genocide because they are fighting with
the state and state has to be maintain law and order.
▪ In the early 1980s, the International Court of Justice was asked for its opinion on
America`s involvement in regime change in Nicaragua. The ICJ, deciding the case
against the US, seminally lay down the principle of non-intervention in state
processes as critical to state sovereignty.
➢ Chapter 3, Article 7. Principle Organs of the UN
There are six principle organs of the UN. General Assembly(all members of UN are it
member), Security Council (peace-keeping), Economic&Social Council, trusteeship
council(this is subordinate to general assembly, this deals with the territories whose
status is unclear or that is not in ownership of any state), international Court of
Justice(principle judicial organ of UN. Comprises of judges belonging to different states.
Located inThe Hague, in Netherlands. It has three types of jurisdiction;
voluntaryjurisdiction- a single state unilaterally cannot take the case to the court. Both
parties has to. Which is contrary to the domestic courts Bcz in country we have had
surrendered our individual freedoms to the state & we have the rights that is defined by
the constitution.But as states it is not the case, compulsoryjurisdictionwhen it is
prescribed in the treaty between two states, that in case of violation the aggrieved party
can take the case to the ICJ then the ICJ is bound to take the case. Or any state
legitimizes the ICJ’s statue article 26- clause 2. In which it is written that if a state passes
a declaration article 26 clause-2, stating that ICJ in entitled to be part of all the legal
disputes of the state, advisory jurisdiction, UN can ask the IJC about a legal advisory
regarding a interpretation of certain law. This opinion is not binding, just guiding),
thesecretariat.
o General Assembly:
▪ It is also called the popular house of UN because all the UN members are
automatically members of the General Assembly.
▪ Each of member of the general assembly has only one vote. However they can
have up to five representatives because the working is very diverse in nature,
humanitarian, environment, money laundering etc.
▪ Decisions on important question (with 2/3 majority of the members present and
voting. Countries prefer to vote otherwise the decision taken by others will be
imposed on them with having a say. Peace and security, election of non-
permanent members of general assembly, election of the members of economic
& social council, elections of the members of the trusteeship council, admission
of new members to UN, expulsion of members to UN, operation of trusteeship
system.) and decisions on others questions( when simple majority of members
present and voting )
Powers
 ▪ Offers Recommendations regarding peace and security. Cannot use force.
▪ Reported to. All theorgans of UN, including Security Council report to general
assembly. Annual as well as special reports are sent to general assembly.
▪ To implement policy related to disarmament.
▪ Research and recommendatory power. E.g., Human rights law, international,
social matters.
▪ Power to form additional organs like unicef UNHRC.
o Security Council:
▪ Chapter 5 of UN deals with the security council.it has 15 members. 5
permanent, 10 non-permanent; elected for 2 years, with no immediate re-
election.however, there is no restriction on the number of turns.
▪ is also called the popular house of UN because all the UN members are
automatically members of the General Assembly.
Powers
▪ Article 24; it has the primary responsibility for the maintenance of the
international peace & security. No economic or other powers just this one
power. Article 24, clause-1; in order to ensure prompt and effective action by
united nation its members confer all the security council the primary
responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security and it
agree that is carrying out its duties under this responsibility that security council
acts from here.
▪ Article 25, members to carry out the responsibility of the UN. The members of
the UN agree to accept and even to carry out the decision of Security
Council.Pakistan had to participate in the War in terror in AfghanistanBcz it was
member of theSecurity Council. So, the argument of why it went for the war is
absurd.
▪ Regulation of Arms. This helps in understanding the sanctions imposed on
member state in case of any violation.
▪ It has to act as a continuingly functioning body. So, it is mandatory for the
member states (15) to have one of its representatives to be present at the
security council at all times. Bcz it uncertain when and where any incident take
place. To act promptly.
➢ Chapter 6, pacific settlement of disputes. It is not bidding because it is the threat of punishment
that makes a decision bidding. If there is no punishment then it can be a moral obligation or
anything but not a law. Law is accompanied by punishment.
o Majority of the power are vested to the Security council while, General also has the
power to settle the disputes in a peaceful manner. In 1998, when Pakistan tested its
nuclear. It passed a resolution that India and Pakistan should sit to resolve all their
outstanding issues.
Steps
o Negotiations between themselves. No third party is involved.
o Mediation. Mediated by a third party. His decisions are not binding.
o Conciliation. Just like mediation. The difference is that in conciliation is that it is
documented. The decision is non-binding. Commercial usage.
 o Arbitration. Form of judicial proceeding. The decision of arbitration is known as an
award. And this award is binding. Indus water treaty. In court you cannot choose your
judge while in arbitration you can,the arbitrator.
o Judicial settlement. The decision of the court will be binding.
o Approaching regional organization for peaceful settlement.
o Or any other method of their own choice.
➢ Chapter 7, article 41 use of coercive measures. The security council may decide what measures
not involving the use of armed force are to be employed to give respect to its decisions
resolution and it make call upon members of the UN to apply such measure . these may include
complete or partial interruption of economic relation, complete or partial interruption of rail,
sea, air, postal, telegraphic or other means of communication and cut off of diplomatic relation
o Articel42; Use of military force. should the security council consider that measures
provided for in article 41would be inadequate or have proved to be inadequate.(it does
not mean that force is preceded by sanctions. they can use the force in the first place as
well)It may take such by air sea or land forces, as they deemed necessary to maintain or
restore the international peace and security. Such actions may include firing or rockets
etc. in the presence of member states. US’ Iraq adventure was not legalized or
authorized by the UN.
o Article 43, assistance to Security Council by members. All members of the UN in order to
contribute to the maintenance of the international peace and security. undertake to
make available to the security council on its call and accordance to the special
agreement armed forces, assistance and facility including the right of passage. (the
numbers can be negotiated but you have to provide). meant for the purpose of
maintaining peace and security. (Attack on the salala check post was carried out by US
but you blocked the supply of the whole NATO, which was wrong, and you did not
launch a counter attack on the UN aggressors. Such is your foreign policy, you should
have pulled out the UN agreement. Because in turn for the supply route you violated
our sovereignty. *if Imran says we should have not jumped into a foreign war. He is now
in power he should pull out from the agreement but these are all rhetoric. Ap na sunain
America ke. But ap na sath b rehna ha complain b kerna)
o Article 51, right of self-defence. Every state has an inherit right of self-defence. (Law has
not given it to you but the law only protects it.) (With right to life comes right to defend.
When you are under threat, you have every right to defend it.)This right tis limited to
the point, where you feel safe and protected. You would not transgress. And the
moment the security council acts that individual state shall stop.

Use of force by UN .

o Just cause (lawful use of force)

▪ Right of self-defence. In case of an attack you have the right to defend yourself.
• Right of Preemptive self-defence
▪ Hot pursuit. When enemy is retreating after attacking you, you can chase it and
even enter in his territory to counter attack.
▪ All the coercive measures in article 41. All sanctions imposed are just cause.
▪ All the measures regarding article 42.
 ▪ Act on the command of UN according to article 43.
▪ Actions taken defined in the Common defence treaties.
o Unjust cause (unlawful use of force)
▪ Any other action not covered above is an unjust cause.
▪ Any state attacks unilaterally attack another state. It will be termed as act of
Aggression.
▪ Sfgs
o fgRight of self-defence.
o
o
➢ Against
o Un has not be able to fulfill its mandate
o The five members have constantly vetoed resolutions against war, injustice and
occupation. As all five nations are, the richest and all are major manufacturers of the
small and large arms and are exporters in the global market. This give an idea that these
members are in favor of promoting war, as their economies are dependent on war.
o UN employs 37000 permanent staff and has an annual budget of $3.231 bn (2021) with
addition budget for peacekeeping having a budget of $6.58bn. Much of this expense is
provided by the five nations. (US contribute 22 per cent of the UN’s total budget)
o UN has a close relation with the International Financial Institutions (IFI). These
institution are not interested in development but in creating dependence and pushing
their loans.
o According to the UN Charter has five permanent members; USA, France, UK, China,
Russia. Because at that time these were the few powerful states who could neutralize
any rising danger. It still resent the post war scenario. It is not the representative of the
contemporary times. It should evolve with the passing time otherwise, it would get
outdated.
o Muslim world has no representation which make them suspicious of the decisions made
in the UN although some of which are legit.
o
Preemptive self-defense
Osamakilled by the US in Pakistan on the basis of preemptive self-defense. India’s
justification for its surgical strikes, which did not happen.
To conduct preemptive self-defence tit must fulfill the following criterion:
▪ Imminence of threat.(Threat is right there in front of you).last attack took place
in 2001. Therefore,Osama was not an imminent threat.
▪ Severity of threat. Is the threat severe enough to act preemptive?
▪ Irreparable loss. If I did not act,it will cause irreparable loss.
If US did not attack Cuba, when inter-continental missiles were deployed in there.
Where, there was that more imminent than that and fulfilled all of the above
criteria.They were just warned. So, it cannot not justify the Osama strike. By conducting
Osama operation Neptune Spear. US did a very loose interpretation of this self-defence
setting a precedence for others around the world.
 You have to pick any of these whichever is the demand of the occasion. If the law serves
the interest of the state then, you have to pick law. If the politics is suitable for a specific
occasion then, you should resort to politics. As the ultimate goal should be the survival
of the state. Emotions has no place in state.
o
o UN treaty is not imposed on any state rather, it is the states that have accepted the
terms and conditions. It has certain procedures to follow in a certain circumstance.
o

International Court of Justice

Rulings by the ICJ, which was set up after World War II to resolve disputes between UN member states,
are binding and cannot be appealed.

The court has no overt means of enforcing judgments but can refer violations to the United Nations.

Human Rights

UDHR (universal declaration of human rights) 1948

Its just a declaration not a treaty. Hence in case of its violation you cannot hold anyone responsible.

ICCPR (international covenant on civil and political rights)

It is considered to be the most important human rights treaty I the world.

• Article-1: right to self-determination (choosing for oneself, socio-political culture future). This
does not mean getting separated from the state. We excise this right in the form of polling by
choosing the party of our choice.Until the constitutional rights are not denied no one has the
right to break from the state. Separation/independence cannot be based on the difference
ethnicity, culture, and language. For example, balochistan’s constitutional status is the same as
that of Peshawar,CM and governor are from Balochistan not from center. It gets its NFC share.
So according to the international Law it cannot in ICJ. UN.

UNHR. ICESCR. International covenant of economic and social and cultural rights. ICERD International
covenant on the elimination of racial discrimination. CEDAW convention on the elimination of
discrimination against women. CRC child rights convention . UNCAD united nation convention against
da.

Freedom of religion
 • The freedom of religion in Pakistan is different than the freedom of religion that is there in the
International law.
• Freedom to profess and practice your religion. All religions are protected under the constitution
and as well as under the Islamic umbrella.
• The blasphemy laws is not the miss use of the law. It would have been a miss use had the proper
procedure of criminal justice system been followed and after that its results are assessed. But
the mob carry out summary punishment and never let the law to take its prescribed course.
• In the PPC. Offences against religion is a complete chapter. Its not solely offenses against Islam.
only three of its provisions are regarding Islamic figures. Prophet, his family, book and worship
places.
• The capital punishment is only for the desecration of the prophet nothing else, not even
desecrating the Quran. And all the clerics from all school of thoughts have consensus on this.
• According to the international law. There is freedom to choose religion. But in Islam this law
does not apply on Muslims.

Freedom of expression

• Your freedom expression will end where the rights of others are endangered. Rights such as
Reputation, right of religion, right of security. Where your speech is violating the rights of others
that is the end to you freedom of expression.
• Expression has different forms; speech, writing, gestures.
•
• Gd
• gdf

Power and function of some UN organs

Failures/ success of UN

UN and Kashmir dispute

UN and Pakistan
UN reforms.

Yasir Farhad
Lecture 5

FATA Reforms
➢ The area created as a legal fiction in 1893 by
implementing Durand line. The area was out of the
influence of Afghanistan, a buffer zone for both armies
not to go and engage each other, no man’s land. The
region to the east of this buffer zone was called as
British India.
➢ British India has sovereignty till the FATA region and
suzerainty (lesser degree of influence,territory will
counted as yours, defense in your hand but people
would be free to make their own decisions) till Durand
line.
➢ Story started with Durand line as buffer zone, territory
that does belong to any one.
➢ According constitution 1956 article 102 & 103 these
regions are called as special & excluded areas. Meaning
that the parliament cannot legislate on this area
➢ 1973, Constitution named it FATA. Federally administerd
tribal areas
o Area of 27000 sq km (equal to Massachusetts
state)with a population of 4.6 million. 7
agencies. 6 frontier regions (FRs areas
connecting to the central areas). These no
longer exist.
➢ In 1901, Britishers started mining activities and laying of tracks, in the region, this activity was
considered as the breach of the agreement by the locals.
➢ the Masud tribe resisted it. In response britishers implement a law called Frontier Crimes
Regulation (FCR). Inhumane law that kept imposed for 117 years till 2018. If an individual does
something wrong the whole tribe with be held responsible.Vicarious liability existed in FCR.
Judge, jury and hang man were the same person. Inhumane punishments, banishing form land.
Demolishing the houses.
➢
➢ At the time of Pakistan formation, people of FATA held a Loya Jirga they joined Pakistan.
Pakistan left it untouched, because the locals joined on such terms. Forces withdrew from this
region.
➢ In 1976 the first reform effort was made. For the first time reforms were introduced. Rafi raza
committee a three personnel committee was formed by zulfiqar ali butto to streamline FATA.
o They submitted a report stating that the territory shall be merged to the main land.
o The PM agreed to this in principle but deferred the implementation. As the
implementation required constitutional amendment and PM was of the view that it was
the last year the elected govt. let the new govt. take office, who will implement it.
➢ After the Zia taking the office. Circumstances took a different turn.
 o THE Afghan Jihad. In that Jihad this area provided a unique capability of participating in
the afghan Jihad yet, officially denying the involvement of Pakistani state in it saying
that there was not writ of the government in those areas.. Pakistan made an excuse of
the tribeal loyalities on both side of the Durand line so people out of their cultural and
tribal ties are helping them in the Jihad.Paksitan does support them morally but not
physically.
o This excuse of denial prevented the state from implementing reforms in this areas
rather, it was made as a launching pad for jihad.
➢ The subsequent governments too did not heed to this area.
➢ 1996, adult suffrage was granted to the people of FATA.
o These reforms did have its intended results as no seats were allocated to provincial
assembly. FATA was not represented in the provincial assembly of KP.
➢ 2004, musharaf tried to introduce the local government system in this area. But it also flopped.
o The criteria to become a counsellor was that he had to be nominated by the Malik of
that area. Ordinary people were not agree with this, and the dissent towards Malik. This
was also the reason for thriving of the Taliban.
➢ 2005, Justice Ajmal Mia committee was formed by Musharaf.
o It suggested the abolishment of the FCR.
▪ The recommendations of this committee were not implemented due to;
• Law and order in the FATA region
• Resistance from the existing bureaucracy. As abolishment of FCR meant
that political agent office would have had become redundant.Political
agent used to be the King in these areas. The same person was Judge,
jury ,executioner. Executive legislator.
➢ 2006, ANOTHER REPORT , Imtiaz Ali report.
o He recommended an additional post of chief secretariat.
o
➢ 2012, local govt. promulgated.
o No implement as the PPP govt term ended.
➢ Nawaz tenure ,FATA reforms committee, consisting of 6 members. Sartaj aziz became its head.
o Were tasked to mainstream FATA and bring it into national fold and at par with rest of
the country.
▪ They interviewed more than 400,000 people and conducted more than 29
meetings. Report was presented before PM.
• Report stated to make it separate province. The committee did not
agree as:
o .The area did not have any experience in history to function as
province.
o Sensitivity of the area as it is connected to the 5 provinces of
the afghan porous border.
o How the region will contribute in the national finance
commission.
• Fata council shall be formed. But that option too went out of favor as
 o The then government was already dissolving the existing GB and
Azad Kashmir Councils. And there were grievances that these
councils act as viceroy.
• To introduce reforms in the existing state.
o That would have required a constitutional amendment.
• The agreed upon option was. Merger of FATA into KP and introduction
of a rivaaj act, that would merge the local traditions to the law of the
land. Jirga will be appointed by the Judge. Jirga should only convict a
person but should not impose the punishments. That will be done by
the judge.
• In the five year time, land entitlements be resolved. Afterwards
computerize the land record.
• 3 % Rs.90 bn, of federal consolidated fund to be allocated to FATA. 20%
of these shall be spent by the local governments.
• Abolishment of FCR.
• Peshawar high court and supreme court of Pakistan having jurisdiction
over FATA.
• Fundamental rights as enshrines in the Constitution shall be delivered to
FATA.
▪ th
25 constitutional amendment made these recommendations part of the
constitution.
▪ 28th may 2018, the president signed this amendment. Also called as 31st
amendment act/ 25th amendment.
• Article 1 was amended which expunged the word FATA from it.
• Article 247 was expunged that talked about the special status of FATA
• Article 50 & 59 were amended that states the seats in NA 336 instead
342and Senate 96 instead of 104.Provincial assembly also got additional
21 seats 16 casual, 4 women, 1 minority
• Peshawar and Supreme Court of Pakistan’s jurisdiction were extended
to these areas.
• PPC 1861 (defines crimes and punishment), CrPC 1898 (defines
procedure of the actions) were made operate laws.

Criticism on FATA Reforms

➢ The FATA reform committee has no body from FATA onboard. How would they represent the
true sentiments of the locals?
➢ The committee had not visited the area in person to know the situation on ground.
➢ No female member on the committee.
➢ No special reforms introduced for the women of FATA. Education etc.

Way forward
➢ Rehabilitation of temporarily displaced persons.
 o Any reform in FATA will be not worth it if, rehabilitation of the people displaced persons
due to war on terror are not catered
➢ Administrative consolidation of ex-FATA districts
o Declaring the administrative setup in these areas.
➢ Ways of communications and transport
o Internet, roads, mobile towers. For the quick information and quick response to these
areas in case of any natural or man made calamity
➢ Infrastructure development
o The area does not have a national level university or large hospital exists.
➢ Training, mandate and enabling of Police to manage local police.
o Modernization of levis and khasa dars.
o Army is there on the basis of a special law, Civil Administration Act of KPdue to the law
and order situation. Which grants the same powers as of FCR. As soon as this act is lifted
these reforms will be implemented. Peshawar high court has declared this act as
unconstitutional but has been challenged in the Supreme Court by the Federal
Government.
➢ Transparency and accountability
o The Rs. 9bn expenditure shall be watch over.
➢ Alternative economic opportunities shall be provide to the people of the area. Earlier, war had
been the business of the people.
➢ Women reforms
o Where there is limited exposure for women. The govt. shall provide education facilities
at doorstep.
o Women centric economies shall be developed.
o Inculcate behavioral change.

(there is no other goon bigger than the state. The law

and order has to be maintained. If the state leave them as it
is , the situation will prevail for another 100 year. Karachi
used to be like that but eventually it has been brought under
the ambid of law.)

Balochistan Issue

• they believe, the Afghan Taliban upsurge will shrink the space for the Baloch insurgent
leadership hiding there. Although some argue that Baloch insurgent leaders have the option of
relocating to Iran or India, most experts believe that more Taliban control in Afghanistan will
mean less shelter and support for the Baloch leaders there, which could negatively impact their
operations inside Pakistan.
• The grievances of Baloch citizens are economic and political, and they are as old as Pakistan
itself.

High-handed policies in Balochistan including an emphasis on military solutions have

aggravated the feeling of alienation among the Baloch. The issue of missing persons is a central
point in Balochistancentre ties
• History:
• the current round of insurgency is the fourth since the Khan of Kalat acceded to Pakistan some
seven months after the country`s birth, triggering unrest in 1948. The decision did not sit well
with some Baloch leaders.
• troubles of the 1950s and then the 1970s, the current round has lasted a long time since the
killing of Baloch leader Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti, as the military stormed his hideout in 2006
• The tribal elder had taken to the mountains to protest against the rape of a woman doctor in
Sui.

The alleged rapist was an officer in the security forces and the military ruler Gen Pervez
Musharraf came out publicly to defend him, declaring his innocence, even before an official
inquiry could be conducted let alone its completion and the submission of a report. The nawab
was outraged at what he saw as a travesty as he considered the doctor under his protection.
• Gen Musharraf chose armed confrontation instead, as he and his colleagues believed they
could wipe out the challenge by the use of force. Tragically, this turned Akbar Bugti, one of the
most profederation political-tribal leaders in the province, into a symbol of separatism after his
killing.

His named heir, grandson Brahamdagh Bugti, who was with him at the time of his death,
managed to escape. He now heads the banned Baloch Republican Party (BRP) which is said to
have ties with the proscribed Baloch Republican Army, one of the three main armed groups
currently arrayed against Pakistan security forces.
•
•
• The PPP government (2008-13) had introduced the Aghaz-i-Hugoog-i-Balochistan package,
besides giving concessions to the province in the seventh NFC award. It had also formed a
committee for exploring reconciliation prospects.

The PML-N government (2013-18) followed in the same footsteps and made the reconciliation
with Baloch insurgent leaders a clause of the National Action Plan announced in January
2015. but yet the whole process was halted without any explanation being provided.
 Exploitation of Balochistan
• the ECC`s approval infringes Balochistan’s right under the 18th Amendment to take decisions
regarding the project and float international tenders to award the lease of the mines producing
precious metals, including gold, silver, copper and iron ore, to the highest bidder. This isn’t the
first time the province has been ignored by Islamabad on the future of the project. The
contract was extended twice in 2012 and 2017 for five years each in complete disregard of
constitutional provisions and in spite of a decision taken in 2017 that the Saindak project would
be handed over to Balochistan after the expiry of the previous five-year agreement with the
Chinese firm later that year.
➢ Moreover, little of the profit made by the lessee or the federal and
provincial government are invested in the welfare of the people of Chaghi,
where Saindak (as well as Reko Diq) is located. That Chaghi, known as the
`museum of minerals`, remains the country`s most under-developed district
despite holding mineral wealth worth trillions beneath its soil speaks
volumes for the state`s exploitative `development` policies. .

Analysis

• When the provincial government is not taken on board on such sensitive issues, it gives the
impression that the establishment is not supportive of the reconciliation idea.
• A broader committee can be formed for this purpose comprising members of the treasury
benches and political stakeholders in parliament.
• economic packages were given to Balochistan in the past but these were not a solution to the
problem. `Even PPP government announced Aghaz Haqoog-i-Balochistan Package that had
both pohucal and economic sides but it also failed to deliver.
• the anti-state elements, those speaking against the country`s integrity and picking up arms
against the State, should be tried and punished.
• there was need to give provincial autonomy to the federating units and making Article 172 (3)
of the Constitution operational by giving 50 per cent share in natural resources to the
provinces, and regretted that a formula to this effect was yet to be worked out.

Referring to a public statement by Chief Minister of Balochistan Jam Kamal that they
themselves came to know about the provincial budget in the cabinet meeting, the PPP stalwart
said Islamabad had no right to make budget of the province.
• Gwadar is too far from Karachi therefore, it could not be attached to the national grid. In 2004
a group of youngsters vandalized a distribution station in Gwadar in raged over frequent black
outs. Since then, WAPDA has not paid heed to it. Recently under CPEC, it was taken under
consideration to provide it with electricity. Supplying from the national grid was costly as 60%
 of the supplied electricity would be lost during transmission over a much longer distance and
for the remaining 40% the authorities were not paid through the bills. Currently, Gwadar is
being provided with electricity imported from Iran, which is unreliable due to US sanction
andIran own crippling situation.
• NAP amended in late 2021 endorses reconciliation in Balochistan.
• Pakistan formed its first ever National Security Policy 2022-2026. In late 2021.

Solutions

• A top-down approach to resolve Balochistan`s lingering problems has borne little fruit and now
it`s time to devise a bottom-up strategy
o the age-old practice of assigning a few sardars, nawabs and elders to take care of
citizens` issues should change because the ground realities were not the same as before.
The tribal system, which used to be strong in the past, had weakened, as it had failed to
resolve the burning issues faced by the masses
o the government should strengthen local body institutions by devolving financial and
administrative powers at grassroots level. `It`s time to give maximum financial and
administrative powers to the representatives of local bodies and strengthen this system
as has been done in all developed countries of the world,
▪ issues faced by the masses, whose majority comprised poor or the lower middle
class, were different from rich people`s issues. If local bodies` institutions were
given financial and administrative powers, most of these issues would be
resolved by elected representatives of local governments, as people could easily
approach them to get their issues resolved
▪ it was necessary to restore the trust of the disgruntled youths and the
downtrodden people instead of using the state power and machinery, and the
masses should be involved in the power-sharing so that they felt a sense of
ownership.
o Zdfz
o

Pakistan need to learn from its neighbours

What to learn from China?

Much loved by some but feared by others, China today is an economic superpower. Geopolitics
changed in 2017 when its GNP shot above that of the US. But what accounts for its phenomenal
rise and ferocious progress? Equally, one may ask: why has Pakistan been on external life
support from 1947 onward and barely limped along? The difference cries outforan explanation.

• Max Weber, the 19th-century German sociologist, would have an answer. Since his pioneering
work, social scientists know economic growth goes hand-in-hand with a society`s collective
worldview and culture. Through data-driven research, Weber explained why Protestants and
Calvinists had far outpaced Catholics in generating wealth and industrialising Europe.
He concluded that progressfriendly cultures demand belief in rationality, rule of law, planning,
punctuality, deferred gratification, and expectations of reward in this life rather than the next.

Were he alive today, how would Weber see China inrelation to Pakistan? First, China`s
worldview is like that of 19thcentury Protestants entirely future-focused and this-worldly.

• Notwithstanding the pride Chinese people take in their ancient science and civilisation, there
is no deep nostalgia and no calls for Ertugrul-like men on horseback to resurrect some
ancient kingdom. Whether for good or bad, and whether under Mao`s revolutionary
communism or under Xi Jinping`s capitalistic communism, the Chinese are a plain, hard-
headed lot.

• This attitude sets the tone for education, both in school and university. Knowing that
universities are the engines of progress, China is super-careful about who gets admitted. At
the level of language, reasoning and math sl(ills, Chinese students are expected to know
everything that American stu-dents learn but better. Today`s gaokao the cheating-free
university entrance exam is a carryover from the rigorous exam system (keju) of ancient
China`s civil service.

Reputed to be the toughest in the world, gaokao beats even thatforvariousIITs

(IndianInstitute of Technology). Unfortunately, educated in a memorisation-heavy culture
steeped in religious matters, most Pakistani university professors including those who are
HEC certified and with hundreds of research publications would not clear Chinese university
entrance exams.

• Second, a reborn Weber would see China clearly defining its national interest with economic
advancement being at the very top. As a rationalistmaterialist country China aims at
becoming the world leader in space exploration, brain science, quantum computers, electric
cars, biopharmaceuticals, renewable energy, etc. Five-year plans are followed to the letter;
there is no empty chatter or arbitrary wish lists.

At the next level of priority is politics. To reunite with Taiwan, China rattles its sabres from
time to time. Nevertheless, China-Taiwan economic links are strong. Taiwanese companies
have invested about $60 billion in China, and one million Taiwanese people live in China
with many running Taiwanese factories.
• The Chinese political leadership keeps its military in check. There is no history of Kargil-like
dead-end adventures and the military stays clear of trade matters. The warrior ethic is firmly
subordinated to the capitalist ethic.

In Pakistan`s case, warriors define the national interest. Googling `national interest`, I found
occurrences in speeches, university theses and in National Defence University publications.
All such references were security and India related. In this single-minded approach, Pakistan-
India trade remains hostage to Kashmir being resolved on Pakistan`s terms. Nowhere to be
found is a plan for where the country hopes to be 20-30 years from now. No one takes the
Planning Commission of Pakistan seriously.

• Third, Weber would confirm that strong work ethics leads to high labour productivity, the
backbone of economic growth. Although he knew only of Protestant-Calvinist workers and
capitalists, the qualities of diligence, discipline, responsibility, punctuality and honesty of the
skilled industrialworkforce extends into the cultures of China, Japan, Vietnam, Korea etc.

In contrast, Pakistan`s labour productivity is appallingly low less than half of China`s. Many
economists and businessmen have pointed out that producing an item in high-wage China is
cheaper than in low-wage Pakistan. Poor productivity owes to poor worker skills and general
dissatisfaction.

Exploitative employers pay minimum wages, ignore principles of fairness and disallow
grievance mechanisms. But the ethics of workers are also low. Few take pride in or enjoy
work, are diligent, or take initiatives. Like our parliamentarians and professors, most are
shirkers who need to be reminded of their duties.

• These poor habits start from Pakistani schools where kids are forced to focus on exam
techniques and taught just enough to get by. Cheating is tolerated. Some parents including
those who emphasise religious rituals encourage their children to cheat as a way to get ahead.
But, at a still deeper level, quality education for all is impossible given extreme wealth
disparities.

In China such disparities had been evened up by Mao`s communism. Although huge excesses
happened in the Cultural Revolution, education was universalised and hard work celebrated.
China is reaping dividends from its communist past.

Pakistan never saw any such evening-up. Leaders of the Pakistan Movement Jinnah and
Allama Iqbal (the post-1930 Iqbal) included were staunchly anti-communist. Some were big
landlords who saw danger in educating their serfs. Education was a low priority in 1947 and
remains low.

Curiously, the country that Pakistan`s founders feared and disliked most (after Russia) is now
Pakistan`s closest ally. It does bash its Muslims; the evidence is irrefutable. Yet other than
how religious minorities should be handled China has much to teach Pakistan.
 • Among the most important lessons is creating a skilled workforce, giving dignity to
labour, distributing wealth and public resources reasonably, emphasising birth control,
and encouraging a mindset oriented to the future rather than the past.

CPEC
➢ CPEC chairman Khalid Mansoor
Geo-politics
For Chinese the BRI trade routes are simple the 6 routes that bypasses the Malacca strait
(Malacca dilemma. Americans are deployed around Malacca. Draw a map). One of the route is
called CPEC. The ultimate aim behind the development is the china’s connectivity with the
Africa, Middle East, and most importantly with Europe.Myanmar is part of BRI so its being
punished by US. In climate summit the US did not call Pakistan they called Bangladesh because
they want to counter Chinese route through Bangladesh.
The Pakistan is not the destination for the trade but a transit route and a corridor to the
Chinese trade. To let Chinese pass it was decided that they should built the roads and help
Pakistan in reviving its economy.
(while siding the Americans, Pakistan received a huge sum of 33 billion dollars out of which 19
billions were military aid. So it was predominantly military aid) (now the strategy has changed
and pakistna wants to revive it economy, the panacea for all the ills of Pakistan)
Gwadar deep sea port: a competitor of Bombay, UAE and Chabahar ports.
 Phases
Every phase these two dimensions
➢ Infrastructure/transportation projects
 o The primary beneficiary would
o fsdbe china but Pakistan can take benefit from it. Win_Win case.
➢ Economic development
o The primary beneficiary would be Pakistan but china would also get it benefit.

Idea sprouted in 2013. On ground, the work started in 2015.

Phase -1–––––2015-2019
The following road projects were initiated in the first phase.
Roads connecting China with Karachi and Gwadar port. Western route compruses of Higways
and motor way (Di khan-Quetta –Gwadar). Eastern rout comprising of motor ways only
(Islamabad-Lahore-Multan-Sukkur-Hyderabad-Karachi). Central route (Islamabad-DI-Khan-along
the Indus river and finally connecting the western route)
Orange line train for urban transport. Optical fiber from Islamabad to Khungerab.
The energy sector:
As Pakistan was struggling with its energy crisis. In 2010 the black outs costed 4 percent
of the GDP.
11,000 MW electricity generation projects were commenced. The complete 10 projects
(1320MW Sahiwal Coal-fired Power Plant, 1320MW Coal-fired Power Plant at Port Qasim
Karachi1320MW China Hub Coal Power Project, Hub Balochistan,660MW Engro Thar Coal
Power Project, 1000MW Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park (Bahawalpur), 50 MW Hydro China
Dawood Wind Farm, Gharo, Thatta, 100MW UEP Wind Farm, Jhimpir, Thatta etc..
19 billions dollars were spent in the first phase. 6 billions were loans and the remain are
investment.
Phase -2–––––2019-2025
Skkur – Hyderabad motor.
ML-1 Main line 1 Rail project. The upgradation of Karachi-Peshawar 1,830 KM long rail line,
costing $ 6808 M. Agreement was signed upon in 2020 and expected cronstruction in the start
of 2021. To dualization of some of the remaining track. Improvement of the railway
communication system/ signal system. The railway systems through flyovers and under passes.
Fencing of the track in urban areas, upgradation of railway stations. Current to 60-70 kM/hr. it
would be 120-140km/hr so new locomotive engines are also needed that increased the cost.
Havelian Dry port (450 M. Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units) upgradation the last railway station
in Abbottabad.

In the energy projects, 720MW Karot Hydropower Project, AJK/Punjab, 300MW Coal-Fired
Power Project at Gwadar

The special economic zones. SEZs the 9 special industrail zones . it will be accompanied with
schools andhospitals and other facilities.

2 SEZs to be established by center, one in Islamabad and one in Karachi, 1 each by each
provincial government. 1 by azad Kashmir and 1 by GB and 1 by FATA, which now will be
established by KP government.
Out of the 9 zones the construction has been started on 2 zones. One in Faisalabad, Punjab
named as Allama Iqbal SEZ. One in Rashakai, KP. The first industrial unit in rashakia has been
inaugurated in the year 2021. And ALLAMA IQBAL, Bolan are fully functional industrial zones.
Work on Dhabeji industrial zone could not start due to litigation, after the award of the contract
to establish the zone.

According to a document of the Sindh Economic Zones Management Company, the DIZ will be
given the status of an SEZ after its completion

Gwadar related projects. Gwadar coal power plant. Gwadar airport upgradation from national to
international. 200 bed hospital. Vocational technical university being built. Gwadar master city
plan rendered. Desalination power plant.

Phase -3–––––2026-2030

.havialian to khunjerab railway track. To save tie and in bulk.

Agricultural enhancement programmes. Tourism enhancing. Developing the blue economy

potential of Pakistan.Coastal industries , ship yards and coastal cities , fisheries , coastal tourism.

The total expected cost is 60 billion dollars. Most of it 2/3 of the money is likely to be
investment.

Transporttaiton projects are loans. Energy projects are investment around 32 billion dollars.

It will render 70,000 direct and indirect jobs

Effects
➢ Economic impacts
o Industrialization
▪ CPEC is helping Pakistan in industrialization in Pakistan in two ways.
• Directly because of CPEC. Under CPEC the making of SEZs. In
Pakistan industrialization has only 17 % share in the GDP. The
construction industry has flourished vehemently, every project
of CPEC involves construction activity and hence more related
industries will grow.
• Indirectly – when the cpec gets mature, it will attract more
foreign investment as there would be more conducive
environment. In 2019 pak signed a free trade agreement with
China. So, 90 % of the goods reaching China via Pakistan will not
be liable to import taxes. This is the opportunity that the foreign
investors can exploit by send its goods through Pakistan to
China. China’s annual imports are worth 2.5 trillion dollars. The
 western bloc’s relations are getting worse with china but the
individual companies mean business, so they can still with
chinaand probably the next door India by setting their industries
inPakistan. Saudis are making oil refinaries 10 billion
investment. Qatar is also investing in oil refinery.They can sell to
china directly from pakistan. This will also bypasss the Iranian
thret and also they see the rising transportation in Pakistan due
to CPEC. CPEC will flourish the ship yard industry.
o FDI
▪ Direct from china- 13 billion dollars of investment in first phase. Almost
2/3rd of the money in cpec is investment.
▪ Indirectly- the gobal invetros are likely to get attracted to the
opportunities. Saudi and Qatar are the apt examples. These can be in
energy sectors, tourism, etc. CPEC will help in ease in current account
deficit. By planting export oriented industry and imports are likely to be
reduced because of import substitute industrialization. With the
development of the CPEC government would not need to take
temporary measure e.g. curbs on imports, raising the value of dollars.
To balance the faltering economy. Imports are important it will increase
the competence with the locals.
o Employment
▪ Jobs creation
• Direct- during construction of the CPEC projects and the
operation of these projects.
• Indirect- jobs in the other industries that may come to pakistan.
It will create jobs due to the transit economy.
• Permanent job-once the facility gets completed the work force
that operates it. Less as compare to the temporary jobs.
• Temporary jobs-due the construction. The labours Engineers.
more as compare with permanent jobs.
▪ Eradication of poverty-
o GDP
▪ The value of goods and services produce in an year. Every one present
in the territory of Pakistan.
▪ GNP is the solely related to the Pakistani national present anywhere
around the world.
▪ We need to produce value added items to improve the GDP. CPEC will
contribute to an increase of 1.5-2 % in GDP annually.
o Security
▪ External security
• With a stronger economy harbored by the CPEC. Pakistan would
be able to afford advance military equipment. Insuring the the
security of Pakistan.
 • Another way of achieving security is that a number of Chinese
investment and Chinese people working in Pakistan. So, its not
in the interest of China to lets India a=or any other aggressor to
bomb paksitan.
▪ Internal security
• As much as jobs and a respectable earning opportunities are
provided and the health and other human development
programs are initiated for the locals they would not tend to take
up arms against the country that are rendering them bread and
butter. And they would also not facilitate the terrorists
activities. (Baloch locals are not made part of the projects so
they feel agitated. Fisheries are taken by Chinese advanced
trawlers, not allowed to fish in other areas due to security
concerns, not technical institution are made to get them
prepared for the jobs offered ,except for a few which the
jugovernment has just started. They are barred from the areas
due to security reasons. They are not provided with clean water,
they complain of issuance of domiciles to the residents of
Punjab)

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Challenges to CPEC
The 21st century is termedas the century of geo-economics

Peace= when there is no violence and no threat of violence that is called peace.

Security= security is needed when there is threat. We have security in Pakistan. That is we have
taken measure to fight with the existing threats. Threats do exist as military is still posted a
variour region.

Economic development takes place when there is peace.

➢ Security challenges
o External
▪ Indi is a perpetual enemy. It posses the greatest threat to CPEC in two.
One by threatening to invade the Azad Kashmir and GB. There would
not be any CPEC without GB.Jai shanker “we have a legal jurisdiction on
Kashmir andnow we will have physical jurisdiction on Kashmir”the
second threat from India is through proxy war. India is using its proxies
to sabotage the CPEC projects. Classical example is the attack at serena
hotel in Quetta. Pc Gwadar andmany more. Leading back to Delhi. BLA,
TTP are their accomplices.
 ▪ Afghanistan also poses a threat. With the rule slided into the laps of
Taliban they have little appetite to take any action against TTP with
operates against Pakistan.
o Internal
▪ Rising attacks by the Baloch rebel groups in Balochis t particularly in
Gwarda.
▪ The emergence of the Taliban has also endangered the success of the
CPEC.
➢ Political challenges
o External
▪ Political opposition by two major states , India and the USA. US are
superficially concerned about the Debt trap the project will creat for
Pakistan. In reality they do not want the domination of CHian in the
region so they wan tto contain China. India aslo reiterates the American
stance saying its not in the Pakistan’s interest and it’s a debt trap. India
also opposes the project that passes through GB which they think is a
disputed territory.
o Internal
▪ Pakistan’s internal political instability is also a challenge. The frequent
change of Government and the impediments caused by the successive
governments in the formof cash disbursement and the continuous
agitational politics are a serious threat to the CPEC.
➢ Pakistan’s weak economy, bad economic policies & corruption they also pose a major
challenge to CPEC.
➢ Covid -19. Because of it the entire focus of the state has been diverted towards
managing this disaster. It has also created an economic crisis and have affected the pace
of the CPEC.
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Analysis

➢ Initially the cost of the project was $9 billion, including equity amount from the government of
Pakistan. But later on the cost was reduced to $6.8bn.
➢ Shift of Pakistan Geostrategic policy to Geo-economic Policy.
➢ US has tried to wean Pakistan away using different strategies such ‘China’s debt trap diplomacy,
activated spoilers within government and political actors to sabotage CPEC.
➢ Its clear that Pakistan would choose China’s unflinching diplomatic, financial, military and
people to people support for Pakistan over the US’ uncertain relations.
➢ Pakistan should work as a conduit for east-west regional connectivity.
➢ As the US withdraws from the Afghan soil another round of instability is lurking or could be
returning to our western border, the Quetta blast on 22nd of April 2021 on the Chinese envoy
suffice this concern.
➢ The rumors are spread that it will be a debt trap. The question is when IMF and world bank give
us loans that is not a debt trap but the Chinese loans are. This show how Americans and its allies
see the BRI and CPEC projects with a jaundice eye.
o Planning Minister Asad Umar, “the loan component of the massive investment is
barely $4.9bn, which is a tiny portion of the $74bn total public debt that Pakistan
owes to global lenders.”
o Dr Liaqat Ali Shah, CPEC’s Project Director in the Planning Commission, “The fact
is that China has not ruled out the possibility of deferring the loan repayment
schedule beyond 2022 if Pakistan’s fiscal issues persist,”
➢ Report released in India recently. Titled India`s Path to Power: Strategy in a World Adrift, it
has been compiled by a group of senior Indian savants associated with Ashoka University in
Sonipat, India.
o The report discusses the looming clash between the US and China and its meaning for
India. Of the regional disequilibrium, the report admits that India`s `foreign policy
towards its neighbours is increasingly being overlaid by domestic political and
ideological considerations.
o The report recommends that, despite the risks, “as long as our objectives of policy
towards Pakistan are modest, resumption of dialogue and a gradual revival of trade,
transport and other links are worth pursuing [.] A continuing freeze in relations will only
enhance India`s external vulnerability to other actors, in particular China. [i.e. CPEC].”
o It warns that in moribund Saarc, “there is a distinct danger that other countries may
remain committed to it and move ahead without India.”

FATF (Financial Action Task Force)( president:Marcus Pleyer)

➢ Founded in 1989.
➢ Works as a global watch dog.
➢ Works under the auspices of UN.
➢ Tasks it performs
o Curbing money laundering
o Stopping the Money used for drug trafficking.
After 9/11
o Terror financing
o Financing for the proliferation of Weapons of mass destruction.\
➢ Pakistan became its member in 1997. A representative group of Asian pacific group.
➢ Pakistan was inspected in 2005, 2009, 2018.( only 2 list – Black n Gray)
o 2010-12 remained black listed
o 2012-2015 grey list
o 2015-18 so called white listed
o June 2018-onwards in the list with strategic deficiencies more commonly known as grey
list
o Generally, once monitored, that country is inspected after a decade, but as Paksitna was
on the radar of the UN security council’s resolution 1,2,6,7 which declare different
terrorist groups as designated terrorist groups such as Lashkar-e-taiba. Pakistan being
the signatory of the UN security council had to proscribe it and curtail all the
transactions, Pakistan double crossed and the members of the Lashkar-e-taiba kept
operating under the name of Jumat-ud-dawa. Hence Pakistan was inspected many
times the previous decade.
➢ Task force is formed to carry out a specialized task AML (anti Money laundering)(to curb money
laundering- an illegal act of keeping the origin of your wealth secret for the purpose of tax
evasion, money earned through drug trafficking. And you transfer it overseas so that your
country cannot track it & CFT(Combating Financing of Terrorism)-which can be external or
internal. Terror causes uncertainty of business, lives, diminish the confidence of the masses in
the law enforcement agencies. Terrorism is viewed at three levels. 1: supra national level-int.
level, 2: national level- state level, 3: sub national level-regional level, district level, city level).
➢ It has two lists, Black & Grey and any country not falling under these is metaphorically called as
white list country. Although there does not exist any white list.
Background
o It is an international organization established in 1989. Head Quarters: Paris, France.
o It is considered as a watchdog. And it sets international standards that aim to prevent
illegal activities and the harm they cause to the societies. It tells Legal, regulatory &
operational ways to curb money launder and protecting international financial system
for misuse.
o There are 40 standards.
▪ The countries that considered these standards null and void are in put in Black
list, Iran & North Korea as non-cooperative member.
▪
o After verifying your efforts at national against the formerly discussed issues FAFT has
place Pakistan in the grey list because they consider that these efforts are not enough to
know the international community that you have done enough.
o Pakistan entered into the grey list in 2008 for the first time and got out of it in 2008
then, went into grey list in 2012 and got out in 2015. Now it has been in the grey list
since 2018.On 25 June 2021, FATF decided to keep Pakistan in the grey list for another
one year. Although compliant to 26 out of 27 action items. Islamabad has now been told
to additionally implement a separate six-point action plan given by the Asia Pacific
Group, a regional affiliate of the FATF. That is “demonstrating that terror financing
 investigations and prosecutions target senior leaders and commanders of UN-
designated terrorist group”
o After fulfilling the remaining three standards, Pak will qualify for on-sitevisit. Then a
team will visit Pakistan to see if the efforts are really done in true spirit or not.
▪ (a) Pakistan has done enough investigation and prosecution against terror
financing entities.
▪ (b) Dissuasive sanctions against those entities.
▪ (c) UN Security Council’s resolutions, 1269 & 1373. Regarding Anti-Money-
laundering and terror financing shall be met.
WHAT PAK HAS DONE SO FAR:-
➢ All available funds are monitored.
➢ The proscribe entities’ offices are sealed shut
➢ Charities and sub organization run by them have been taken over by the state.
➢ Their social media presence is curtailed.
➢ Government has formed a 12-member National Coordination Committee on FATF.
➢ Fulfilling FATF compliance is not a one-time task; instead, it is about regulating financial flows
and the regulations will need a permanent mechanism.

Negative implications of being in the Black or grey list (divide this heading in short term,
medium term, and long term implications)
o Being in the grey list mean a sword of being pushed into the black list always
hangs over you.
o The grey black has the legal consequences in the form of financial sanctions and
additional scrutiny.
▪ Due to additional safeguards implemented by any organization or country.
Because no country want to gets its money spent on terrorism financing or
money laundering. Being a grey list member certifies that you are involve in
such activities. North Korea and Iran. The higher denomination of the currency
the flattered economy that country has. Except Japan and South Korea who
have export based economies.
o No Foreign Aid and funding by IMF and World and they will enhance their checking and
supervision and balance before they grant funds
o The image of the country is tarnished in the global community
o No foreign investments may come.
o Drop inexports to foreign countries may occur.
o Currency gets devalued.
o No stability in the market as business thrives in the mundane circumstances.
o Lack of trust of the Pakistani expat over the State Bank of Pakistan.
o So far, Pakistan has beard the loss of $38 billion since 2008.

When pushed to the Black List

 o The above speculations are realized and applied with greater strictness.
o Illegal transactions increases.
o Sanctions are imposed.
o International boycott.
Positive implications of getting out of black & grey list
o Global community’s confidence built over you
o Trade
o Tourism
Efforts made by Pakistan
o FMU, financial monitoring Unit was established under the ministry of Finanace.
o Anti-Money Launder law was promulgated. Heads of proscribrd org. are
incarcerated
o dhgfh
Way out for Pakistan
o Terrorism financing lists are to be identified, supervised and assessed.
o Remedial action actions against money laundering and terror financing. Plugging
the loop holes.
o Enforcement actions against illegal money.
▪ Raids, detention, investigation, prosecution and conviction of these
cases.
o actions against cash couriers and illicit movement of money.
o Improving inter-agencies coordination.
o The remittance to Pakistan should be sent through proper banking channels. Rather
than ‘hawala/hundi’
▪ The trust-based money transfer system has long been the banking system of
choice for many people in Pakistan.
▪ Remittances from Pakistanis living in Dubai have been on the wane since July
amid growing hawala use.
Official data shows that remittances from the UAE stood at $530.6m in July,
$512.3m in August, $502m in September, $455.9m in October, and $452.5m in
November.
o Revamping Banking system of Pakistan. Proper documentation of the transactions.
➢ India wants to keep Pakistan in the Black & grey list.
o Pakistan has always been highlighting to the international community the politicisation
of FATF and undermining of its processes by India. The recent Indian statement is just
further corroboration of its continued efforts to use an important technical forum for its
narrow political designs against Pakistan. While Pakistan has been sincerely and
constructively engaged with FATF during the implementation of the action plan, India
has left no stone unturned in casting doubts on Pal(istan`s progress through
disgraceful means,
o India`s Minister for External Affairs S. Jaishankar “Due to us, Pakistan is under the lens of
FATF and it was kept in the grey list”
 o the Indian foreign minister had vindicated Pakistan`s longstanding stance on `India`s
negative role` in the global financial watchdog.
➢ FATF is used by global powers as a political tool to put pressure on countries like Pakistan.
o There are examples where the global watchdog delisted other jurisdictions under its
enhanced monitoring even though they had done far les than Pakistan. FM “Some
forces want to keep the FATF sword hanging on Pakistan”
o While it may not suggest that FATF decisions are all political, it does provide a peek into
how countries try to influence these decisions not on merit but on the basis of their
political priorities.
➢ Oct 2021 review
o the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) retained Pakistan on its “increased monitoring
list” the so-called grey list
o “Pakistan should continue to work to address its other strategically important AML/CF T
deficiencies, namely by
▪ (1) providing evidence that it actively seeks to enhance the impact of sanctions
beyond its jurisdiction by nominating additional individuals and entities for
designation at the UN;
▪ (2) demonstrating an increase in ML investigations and prosecutions and that
proceeds of crime continue to be restrained and confiscated in line with
Pakistan`s risk profile, including working with foreign counterparts to trace,
freeze and confiscate assets,” the FATF urged.
o President said it had no political considerations and as a professional body of 39
jurisdictions, it took decisions by consensus
o next review of Pakistan`s progress in February 2022

Pakistan likely to remain on FATF grey list until June 2022

By Khaleeq Kiani 2022-03-04

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is likely to remain on the so called grey list of the Financial Action Task Force
(FATF) for another four months i.e. until June for a couple of unmet targets under the additional criteria.
Pakistan is now targeting the full completion of the 2021 action plan on anti-money laundering and
combating terror financing (AML/CFT) by the end of January 2023.

Pakistan has been on the grey list for deficiencies in its counter-terror financing and anti-money
laundering regimes since June 2018.
The most recent action plan of 2021 on money laundering from FATF`s regional affiliate the Asia Pacific
Group (APG) largely focused onmoney laundering and had found serious deficiencies.
In this new action plan, four out of the seven items now stood addressed or largely addressed.

The FATF had asked Pakistan to `continue to work to address its other strategically important AML/CFT
deficiencies, namely by: (1) providing evidence that it actively seeks to enhance the impact of sanctions
beyond its jurisdiction by nominating additional individuals and entities for designation at the UN; and
 (2) demonstrating an increase in ML [money laundering] investigations and prosecutions and that
proceeds of crime continue to be restrained and confiscated in line with Pakistan`s risk profile, including
working with foreign counterparts to trace, freeze, and confiscate assets.”

The completion of APG`s action plan for the effectiveness of AML/CFT is also a structural benchmark of
the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for end-March

Pakistan & IMF

• 2022 Projected Real GDP (% Change) : 4.0*

• Country Population: 216.467 million
• Date of Membership: July 11, 1950
• Number of Arrangements since membership: 23
• Current bail out signed in 2019.
• Most programmes were abandoned midway without implementing the actions agreed to.
•

• That political expediency has kept successive governments from dealing with
fundamental structural challenges faced by the country’s economy is evident in the fact
that no administration, military or civilian, has attempted to fix the state-owned
enterprises (SOE) which have been a huge financial burden on the exchequer despite
being on almost every IMF programme agenda in the last three decades.

➢ Founded in 1989.
➢ Works as a global watch dog.
➢ Works under the auspices of UN.
➢ Tasks it perform
Yasir Farhad
Lecture 7

Terrorism

Terrorist :
2001-21 only 50 people in EU china7,PAK Iraq etc
=25k by terror but thousands died by rd
accidents.
- Strategy to spred fear
- Influence state (bull In china shop)

Terrorism is violence or threat to use violence aby an armed group or an organization against
innocent civilians to propagate and implement a certain ideology by infusing fear and changing
the way of life or people but putting them in fear of death. The ultimate objective of all this is
to gain power. They search for a country to govern; they seek a seat at the international levels.
The freedom fighter will or shall be the sons of the soil.
Freedom fighters donot use fear as an instrument against the civilians. Because they, primarily,
are fighting to break that shackles.

The freedom fighters fight from a moral high ground like a professional national army. They
are fight a just war. Otherwise, their cause and side gets weak in the eyes others.
UN is careful in designating someone a terrorist because this way that specific terrorist
organization become a stakeholder and if in the near future the UN wants to negotiate terms,
that organization would find a seat on the negotiation table.

• LaL masjid incident took place in July 2007.

• TTP comes into action in the urban centers in December 2007. It had already existed in
FATA, but government of Pakistan did not recognize it. It was called a the subsidiary of
the Afghan Taliban.
• Mullah Fazlulah became it ameer, son in Law of the Sufi Muhammad, the active
participant of the afghan Jihad. Who took a batch of 5000 fighters from malakand for
the Afghan Jihad. On his return sufi Muhammd formed an organization named TN
tehriq-e-nafaz-shariah-muhammadia (TNSM). To implement the Afghan like sharia in
Paksitan by force. under different convictions he was incarcerated. Mullah Fazlul laah
carried forward his father in law’s mission and found sanctuary in the MMA government
in 2007-2008. He established his own illegal FM radio channel and through that radio he
appealed for the cause of sharia from the locals. No to send girls to schools and not to
allow polio workers to operate in the area. He deployed his militia along the roads and
started the law enforcement agencies. And also destroying girls schools. He established
his writ in the swat and Malakad region.
• Towards the end of 2008, ANP took hold of the region. they opted for the truce but and
it culminated in the type of agreement in which Nifaz-e-adal ordinance. This ordinance
ordered the sharia courts in Malakand division. Judges will be named as Qazis, decisions
will be taken after counselling the Qazis. In turn, the Taliban will lay off their weapon
and not to disturb the order of the day. But as discussed earlier that sharia is not the
thing they strive for, rather they are power hungry.
• They starting their operations as close, to Islamabad, as masehra. International media
started taking stock of the situation as the nuclear installations of Pakistan were near
the capital.
• Pakistan started to take a coercive actions against them. Operation Rah-e-Rast. Few
officers were airlifted to Madressa Imam Bheri to negotiate to restrict their operations
to the malakand division. as the government was frightened of the reprisal similar to
that of Lal Masjid operation.
o Those 4 officers were killed and mutilated their bodies by Mulah fazlulah.
• Operation Rah-e-Nijat was the full scale operation started against them. Mullah fazlulah
managed to escape to Afghanistan , although an affectee of Polio virus.
o Taliban responded by basting in every nuke and corner of the urban centers.
• In 2013, the military command was handed over to Raheel Sharif.
o No such action was taken for the first 8 months of his tenure.
o In July 2014, after the Karachi Airport was kept hostage for 6 hours.
o Within 48 hours of the Karachi Airport attack, OperationZrb-e-Azb operation in
North Waziristan was launched. It was not initiated after the APS attack rather
its ambit was expanded.
o On 16 December 2014, APS attack calamity faced by Pakistan.
▪ Public was confused because the Pakistani government praised these
elements for their actions in Afghanistan when they turn their heads
towards Pakistan, people were perplexed whose narrative to listen to.
Even the military men were confused and hesitated to pull the trigger.
When they faced the Muslim attackers.
 ▪ Locals also grew… .. to the army actions because the army saw every tom,
dick and harris as complicit.
▪ The porlem with the Paksitan establishment and successice governments
is that it sanctify every calamity. And tragedies is. Khool say inkallab
ayega. No body heeded if there was any responsible person named in the
FIR. Any ISI commander. Children had not gone to jihad, as we are
celebrating their martyrdom. It was a cold blooded murder that the state
failed to address.
▪ The terrorists on the executionary level could not be stopped as he is
determined to die no matter where and when. And he is sedated, under
influence, desperate to meet the angles waiting for him in the heaven.
• National Action Plan was put in action.
o A plan comprising of 20 clauses.
o It was the perpetuation of the document prepared by the PPP government
named as National internal Security Policy (NISP 2013). In this policy has to be
implemented from 1-1-14 to 31-12-2018 and after that a new policy had to be
promulgated
o 21st constitutional amendment, Military courts for two years.
• Plan (data from NACTA website)
o To lift the moratorium on death penalty. To deter the terrorists.475 were
hanged. According to the available stats, it has been proved that capital
punishment cannot guarantee the eradication of crime. As English is an apt
example. We have the liking for the public hanging but it does guarantee the .
Norway has the best criminal system so the inmates are deceasing with the
passage of time. They import the prisoners from other countries. To keep their
jails function for future use.
o Regularize seminaries. Capital having a radius of 14 miles is home to 189
registered seminaries. 446 non-registered seminaries. Having no information
regarding its patrons and students or teachers. This number outnumbers the
total educational institution in this territory. Having a number of 423.
▪ People get attracted to these seminaries because of the unbridled
number of births, impoverish family backgrounds finds seminaries as the
free lounging and messing facilities also the state’s failure to cater to the
needs of its masses.
▪ These graduates from the seminaries were not fit for the society. All they
new were how to mange the mosques and that’s all. When they were ill
fit in the society they stated to join the pariah groups. Spreading hate
speech. 22052 mardrasa were registered during the Mushraf era.
 o Freezing of the terror funding.SBP ceased 126 accounts holding amount up to
1billion pkr. 251 million pkr in cash was recovered during the raids on their safe
heaven. Zakat, alms, charity, kidnapping for ransom.
▪ Sleepers cells: terrorists living in guise of the civilians
o Ban on hate literature.1500 such books were ceased. 72 shops were sealed.
o Ban on the elements. People who spread hate speech were banned. Punjab
control on laud speaker 2015
o
o Protection of ethnic minorities.
▪ 1903 till 1987 total 33 cases were registered when the punishment was
not capital punishment. 1987-2017 total 3300 cases registered when the
punishment was capital punishment. This show that this law is being
misused.
o Sent back the afghan refugees
o Mainstream the Balochistan.
o Squeeze the media and internet space for the terrorist groups.

Karachi and Fat are the success cases of the NAP. Fata will be termed as fully
liberated from the evil forces when the IDPs and return back to their houses. IDP is
when people are inernally displanced as a result of the politically unstabe state.
TDPs is the temporarily displaced persons. When a government guided operation is
going on for the safety of the people. The natives have been brought out of that
area. And will be sent back once the situation gets stable. Just to avoid any UN
intervention which they do in cases of civil wars to look after those countries by
themselves. So we will use TDPs term fro Pakistna .

NACTA national counter terrorism authority. Act passed in Nov 2013

Envisioned by Rehman Malik to enhance the inter agencies coordination. Civil and military
intelligence agencies doubted each others competence.
o Liaises with international anti-terror organization for the capacity building,
o De-radicalization of terrorists.
Way forward

• Implementation of FATA reforms. This will provide a viable alternative to eran a

respectable living.
• Resource allocation to backward areas. Its difficult to stop terrorism at execution level.
On ehow has committed to get detonated he will find his through the cracks. Bu we
need to make sure others don’t get inspired. These are the people whose life under the
state is miserable and going against the state would make it stay the same but being
against the state he would, at least, have a chance to fire back.
 o We need to learn from Jafna, Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka with help of Pakistan devised a
strategy of preferential treatment to the people of Jafna.
o This way the propaganda dries and it does not harbor when the people are
getting better treatment.
o Killing people and abducting people and extra judicial killings would not help
solve the issue
o Ager Gwadar banay ka Gwadar walon ko he faida nae to kia faida.
o If debated that dueto non-major industries or due to less populated province
Balochistan is not being provided the Sui gas. Is baseless. The state generate
enough revenue that even if it wish it can provide with free of cost gas.
o If the state does not protect a Baloch from his/her sardar hten was is the use of
siding it to earn the displeasure of the sardars. In the ende it the sardars that are
going to stay there for ever. Sardar ka muka kareeb ha .state ke protection door
ha.
• Yearning of Police force
o Police is the first line of defense against any Urban terrorism. Army cannot. As
Police cannot control the borders.
▪ Although Rangers were came in handy in controlling the situation in
Karachi but that was a huge cost. State cannot afford the expense of
continuous deployment of Rangers in the urban centers.
▪ The gear of security personnel determines the morale of the force. he
believes that in case of an armed confrontation he would have an equal
chance to take down the opponent. However, if he is under supplied then
he is demoralized.
▪ Police works under several constraints while army enjoys a free hand.
▪ Police is highly under resourced and also highly politicized.
• Cultural value
o We need to inculcate in our nation the value of our own cultural rather than
some foreign culture such as Saudi or Iran. In case there is a war against Iran
would Pakistanis be ready to fight?
o Language is not only the mode of communication rather its your way of life. All
the heritage and customs attached to it.
o If you don’t teach this to your younger generation they are easily gullible. And
coaxed by the clerics to teach them culture of slaying and terrorism. Ertugrul.
▪ No compulsion in teaching the locals languages or literate about the
indigenous scholars or languages or poets.
▪ Terrorists know this and that is why they attack the shrines of the famous
poets and Sufis of indigenous cultures.
• Counter narrative
o The Fata need to change the narrative of the people about the terrorists.
 ▪ The way state has changed the narrative of it people about China
▪ The way state has changed the narrative of it people about Sikhs. Earlier
they were projects the villains of the migration days.
• Terrorism anywhere is Terrorism everywhere
o If you are callous to any terrorist activity abroad and you try to find ifs and buts
then you cannot eradicate terrorism.
o We own a terrorist activity when it suit us.
▪ When a non muslim gets killed then we don not heed. If a shia gets killed
we get perplexed if he was even a true Muslim or not. Hitler was a
terrorist who killed 6 million jews.
• Decisive action against all form of terrorism

Myanmar issue
➢ Junta leader, Ming aung Hlaing ousted the civilian government on Feb 1.
➢ An information and communication back out has been imposed.
➢ It has worsen the refugee crises. People are forced to flee to the Philippines and Bangladesh is
has been hosting over a million of Rohingya muslim refugees since 2017.
➢ Asean leaders to press Myanmar junta over violence in asean summit and to let the
humanitarian aid pass to the masses.
➢ In 2015 NLD (National league for democracy) led by aung san suu kyi came in power under a
hybrid democracy. But upon winning the elections again in 2020, a coup was placed alleging
fraud in elections.
➢ British , Americans, & Canadian governments have imposed some sanctions on the military
government. While China is of the stance of non-interference.
➢ The students, faculty and the civil servants have completely boycotted, which has brought the
country to a shuddering halt.
➢ A group of ousted law makers, previously part of suu kyi’s National League for Democracy have
formed a shadow “National Unity Government” and has formed “people’s defence force” to
protect civilians facing violence form the military.
➢ 70 civilians have been killed in the people taking to the streets since Feb 1 according to the local
monitoring group..
➢ 1 Feb, military coup imposed deposing Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.
➢ Security forces have killed 715 protestors so far,3100 behind the bars.
➢ Ethnic guerrilla groups in the north and east of the country are waging attacks on the military
government. They shot down a military helicopter.
➢ GJJGF
➢ FCHGCK

Thaw in PAK- INDIA relations

India= Defence Minister: Rajnath Singh
 Foreign ministers: S jaishankar

National security advisor: Ajit K Doval

➢ UAE mediated the détente between PAK & India

➢ India n pak agreed on thing neither wan other around:
➢ “Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.”
➢ 23rd feb,2021; India open its airspace for PM Imran khan upon his visit to Sri-Lanka.
➢ 25th feb, 2021; DGMOs of both countries announce the dealto respect the 2003 ceasefire.
➢ 18th march,2021; Pakistan Army chief said “ stable indo-Pak relation is a key to unlock the
untapped potential of south and central Asia by ensuring connectivity between east and west
Asia, it is time to bury the past and move forward”
➢ Exchange on missives upon Pakistan resolution day and Mhodi tweeting for PM Imran’s speedy
recovery who is down on Covid.
➢ Pakistani equestrian team in india. Pakistan cricket team to get visa for 2021 T20 worldcup.
➢ India army will participate along with china and Pakistan in Pakistan.
➢ Reinstating envoys in Delhi & Islamabad.
➢ Restoring trade.
• Pakistan is facing a crippling economy. And in adding to that it is reeling under heavy debt,
almost 87% of its GDP goes in debt.
• FATF sword is still hanging on Pakistan’s head. Its ‘Grey List’ till june 2021.

UAE is mediating the relations between these two states, as the Fist men of the both states regard
UAE’s sheikh Muhammad bin zayed. Modi received the highest civilian award “the order of zayed”.
UAE has trade and diplomatic ties with these two states.

India found sheikh latifa and as a return favour UAE refused to join other states to condemn India
over Article 370 abrogation and said that it was india’s internal matter.

▪ Can we really trust India as having experienced a rollercoaster ride of relations

Every time they have talked peace they have change colours like a chameleon.
Given that we share a fence with them, do we really have a choice but to give peace a
chance.

There are 2 recent developments

➢ The Foreign has said the SAARC summit, due in October in Pakistan, can take place if
“artificial obstacles” are removed, in a thinly veiled reference to India.
➢ The US intelligence Council _annual threat assessment report 2021 by Director of National
Intelligence (DNI, Avril Haines) has prophesied that
➢ Pakistan & India may stumble into a large-scale war within the next five yearswith violent
unrest in Kashmir or a militant attack in India being the flash points.
▪ Regarding the American assertion, while it has an alarmist ring to it, it is not
without substance. After all, just over two years ago both states came to
close to conflict following India’s Balakot misadventure.
 ➢ PM of Pakistan said “it would be a betrayal with the people of Indian occupied Kashmir, if
Pakistan normalizes its relations with India without resolution of Kashmir dispute”.
➢ PM said “if there is a road map, then, yes we will talk” he linked the further détente with the
revocation of the Article 370A.

Simla agreement “no side shall unilaterally alter the situation”

Shimla Agreement of July 3, 1972, as if it forecloses the Kashmir dispute.

Far from it. Its concluding Para 6 envisages negotiations on Kashmir. It says: “Both governments agree
that their respective heads will meet again at a mutually convenient time in the future and that, in the
meanwhile, the representatives of the two sides will meet to discuss further the modalities. and
arrangements for the establishment of durable peace and normalization of relations.
It bears mention that Kashmiris universally accepted leader Shaikh Muhammad Abdullah criticised both
countries India and Pakistan for discussing a solution in the Kashmir dispute behind the back of
Kashmir`s representatives. New Delhi has consistently cited the Shimla Accord content that it wipes out
the past and renders Kashmir a dead issue.

Why is happening?
➢ Has Modi been weakened by the mishandling of pandemic which is now reflected his
politicaldefeat in 3/5 state elections? Have military setbacks in confrontation with China led to
fear of a China-Pakistan alliance against India’s regional aspiration? Has Biden’s reliance on
Pakistan to coax the Taliban to limit US humiliation in Afghanistan increased its leverage in
Washington at India’s expense? Have India’s failure to eradicate the Kashmiri resistance despite
massive repression, and international criticisms of India’s human rights violations been factors?
➢ Conversely, is India driven by its perception of the political, economic, military and diplomatic
mess in which Pakistan finds itself today? Has Modi calculated that Pakistan has no Kashmir
options left other than to accept Aug 5, 2019 as a fait?
➢ China is sitting at India’s throat and to ease off on e of its active front India, has negotiated
revival of the cease fire agreement of 2003 to lessen its burden. And to engage with China more
proactively.
Which is mere 25 Km in width

Why is détente important between these two states?

➢ Pakistan’s new geo-economic pus cannot bear fruits without stable ties with India.
➢ A World Bank study estimated that the two countries are missing out on $37 billion in trade due
to tariff and non-existent connective infrastructure.
➢ Pakistan’s aspiration of being a connectivity hub also make more sense if it can serve as a
conduit for Indian goods into Central Asia and Europe.

What should Pakistan keep in mind?

➢ Pakistani interlocutors should seek to test and verify –assess if the Indian move is tactical or
strategic and proceed cautiously.
➢ Pakistan must maintain its red lines on its principled position on Kashmir especially as Indian
media reporters suggest that Delhi’s expectation is for Pakistan to cease insisting on reversal of
the illegal annexation of Kashmir
➢

. While Pursuing the near term aim, as identified by Pakistani officials, of providing ‘relief to the
Kashmiri people’ presumably through CBMs, this should be done in tandem with and not as
substitute for substantive talks on the issue.

➢ Process in the backchannel should not be mistaken for substance. It has been India’s aim to
draw Pakistan into a process with no outcomes in settling disputes and thus to demonstrate to
the world how reasonable it is without conceding anything. Delhi has sought to achieve
normalization on its terms without resolving disputed and instead prioritizing the terrorism and
trade. From this perspective, normalization for the sake of normalization should be avoided as
this will transient, lack substantive content and therefore durability.
➢ The backchannel should not become the sole track of Pakistan-India engagement. It should lead
to the resumption of formal and comprehensive dialogue. Revival of the track one peace talks is
also necessary because engagement confined only to a backchannel will give the other side
much wriggle room precisely because informal talks may not bind parties to any commitment.
The foreign ministry should also be consulted and kept on board on the backchannel talks.
➢ Announcement should only be made once there is progress in the backchannel and through
mutual agreement by both sides. Conciliatory statements by PM and Bajwa have not been
reciprocated by Indian leaders. It may convey that Pakistan is keener on normalizing ties owing
to its domestic vulnerabilities and compulsions
➢ Peace with honour should remain the immutable principle of Pakistan engagement with India.
➢ Pakistan has repeatedly declared that dialogue can only resume if India rescinds it Aug 5, 2019,
actions.
➢ In sept 2021, Amit Shah India`s home minister threatened `surgical strikes` against Pakistan.
The paper “Strategic Implications of India`s liberalism and Democratic Erosion” authored by, Daniel
Markey, a Senior Adviser on South Asia at the United States of Peace

• Mr Markey points out that the Balakot airstrike, subsequent skirmishes and India`s
`debunked claims of a destroyed terrorist camp inside Pakistan and downing of a
Pakistani F-16 jet, have already raised questions in the United States about New Delhi`s
credibility and communications strategy during an exceptionally dangerous regional
context`
• The paper also reviews India`s anti-Muslim policies, noting that when India`s policies
disadvantage Muslims or other minority groups, perceptions of India suffer and India`s
neighbours stop viewing the country as a pluralistic democracy.

This, the author warns, will reduce India`s ability to contest for regional influence while
China can continue to increase its influence, `afforded by sheer financial heft` in South
Asia.
• The paper argues that India`s huge Muslim population could conceivably serve as a
natural bridge building opportunity for New Delhi to facilitate closer relations with
Muslim-majority states around the world. But an increasingly majoritarian, Hindutva
India is more likely to find itself at odds -or at least struggling to manage relations -with
the rest of the Muslim world. `At the very least, India misses an opportunity to score
diplomatic points against its regional adversary Pakistan, a state nominally created as a
homeland for South Asia`s Muslims that would be denied that animating purpose if
India proved itself equally welcoming,` the paper adds.

Indus water treaty

➢ Under the Indus water treaty 1960, the two sides are bound to meet at least once in a
year in meetings help alternatively in India and Pakistan. But could not meet in recent
past due to the skirmishes between them.
➢ According to the indus water treaty the high riparian state can use the water of the
western tributaries for the power generation without affecting the flow of water.
➢ Concerns of Pakistan
o Indian is rerouting the water and which is affecting the flow of water in these
tributaries.
o Pakistan has raised objections on the Indians projects on the western rivers. The
design of 1000 MW Pakal Dulis currently under way on a tributary of the River
Chenab in Kishtwar district of Jammu and Kashmir(Pakistan wants to reduce its
height by five meters to make it 40 meters above the sea level and the design
must have spill ways to not disturb the flow of water.) Chenab River and 48MW
Lower Kalnai hydroelectric plants, the new projects by India on Western rivers.
o Two recent run-of-river hydroelectric plants ––19MW Durbuk and 24 MW Nimu-
Chilling plants.
o India has made four hydro power projects at Chenab Basin in India. Pakal Dul,
lower Kalnai, 850MW Ratlay and 900MW Baglihar dams.
o In case of Delhi’s failure to address the concerns of Islamabad. Pakistan is raise
the matter in international forums ––appointment of neutral experts, taking the
case to international court of arbitration.
o

Hydro Politics
 Politics on fresh water/ river water.
Indi’s water aggression/ hydro terrorism or water terrorism, its impacts on Pakistan and
options.
o
➢ Nature of conflict
o Pakistan’s position
▪ India violates and manipulates Indus’ Waters Treaty of 1960.
• Attempting to take control of Pakistani water and trying to create
leverage. There by threatening Pakistan’s economy and security.
➢ At the time of partition this issue had been discussed. So after the 1948 aggression from
Pakistan. On 1 April 1948, the time of khariff crop in Pakistan, India blocked the water of
the three rivers due to which Pakistan suffered a lot. Talks on different levels held.
Liaquat Ali also met with Nehru. But a permanent solution could not be devised.
➢ World Bank mediated and a treaty was signed on 19 september 1960, in Karachi.
➢ Key provision of the treaty
o 3 western Rivers ,Indus Jehlum Chenab, ceded to Pakistan and 3 Eastern rivers,
Ravi, Sutluj, Bias, were taken control by the Indian side.
o India is allowed to construct Hydro Power generation projects on Pakistan rivers
under the principle of Run of River. (India can use pakistani waters but cannot
consume it)
o Treaty came into force in 1970, this ten years time bought time for Pakistan to
construct dams and to construct 8 link canal from the western river to the
eastern rivers rivers which were to be stopped in the future. Link canal has
benefits: irrigation, flood management to divert floods from western river,
security purpose; natural barrier considered second line of defense against India
aziz Bhatti defened Bambanwali-Ravi-Bedian CRB canal.if India gets successful in
controlling the waters they can block the water at the time of attach making the
defense futile.
o Provided a conflict resolution mechanism. A three step approach; if the flow is
affected or the treaty is misinterpreted. The matter shall be taken at the forum
that is called permanent commission on Indus waters. Comprising of and Indian
water commissioner and a Pakistanis water water commissioner. It has to meet
once a year. If not resolved, the matter shall be referred to a neutral expert. He
will give his recommendations which are not final and neither binding.if not
resolved then last option is that any of the states can refer the matter to the
World Bank. The state will put forwards two options either to assign a neutral
expert or to hold a court of arbitration. If the matter is regarding the engineering
design, then it will be referred to a neutral expert. If the matter is related to the
 interpretation of treaty then court shall abate. Court’s decisionis final and
binding.
o Before commencement of any project on Indian side, India will have to inform
Pakistan and will have to share the design details three months before. If there is
any objection then we can follow the above mentioned procedure.
o This treaty is subordinate to International Law.
o Since annual meetings, under the treaty, are to be held before March 31 each year,
alternately in the two countries,
➢ How India is manipulating and violating the treaty.
o Pakistan has three major concerns
▪ Initially, before this treaty India had very limited number of projects over
the Western rivers. The salal project, no they are working on Salal-II, was
initiated in 1970s on the western river Jehlum. India informed Pakistan.
Pakistan objected the design but it was resolved. After that, a dozen of
projects are either completed or are in completion phase by India. Wullar
project on jehlum is also disputed. After 2000, India gradually increased
the projects. The Baglihar project on Chenab, the mega project and the
most contentious. Since modi taking power, the projects have been
increasing. Pakistan says thatindia plans to construct more than 300
projects.In addition to that the treaty does not restrict any party on the
number of projects it can construct.
• This increased number will affect because even for run of the river
project, a structure of minimum height has to be construct to
raise the level of water to make sure it generate electricity. Also,
when it is filled for the very first time water has to be stopped
from flowing into the lower riverine areas. So in this way water
flow to Pakistan will be affected in the crucial cropping seasons.
• The treaty allows India to refill these structures once a year. To
account for the losses due to evaporation or seepage. Filling all of
the projects simultaneously will leave no water even in the
monsoon periods.
We need to let some of the water into the sea to grow the
mangroves as well as Sindh has serious concerns over the
encroaching sea which was kept at bay by the pressue of the
indus before. Also, the lack of water in the indus is disturbing the
ecology of the Indus delta.
▪ Height of the projects- the height of the projects are more the required
leading to excessive storage of water. This increased height is the
violation of the treaty. The issue is that due to the escalated tensions
there are seldom meet ups on the design so India, even though in
 violation of the height, keeps on constructing these projects leading
paksitan in a fiasco.
▪ Spill way gates- these gates control the discharge of water from a water
body. The projects are incorporated with the spill ways. With is a threat
to water supply to Pakistan. They can make the rivers flooded or wither
at the time of their choosing. Also the water in the link canals will be not
enough to act as a natural barrier to the India ground invasion.
▪ India is constructing another dam downstream Thein Dam, named `Shahpur
Kandi Dam`. The dam`s purpose is to store and divert any and all waters for
which Thein Dam falls short.
Moreover, the `Shahpur Kandi Dam` is set to become functional by Nov 2022.
And we canonly imagine the drought [likel state of the river after that,` reads
the report.`While we [in Pakistan] are still busy evolving consensus on our water
related projects and replying to courts, the transboundary side [India] is making
actual progress. Adhering to the words of Indian prime minister, they are
making actual progress to make Pakistan suffer for every drop of water,` the
report mentions.
It warns that given the situation, the river, which is a major contributor to
groundwater recharge, is inching towards an `existential crisis` for Lahore. After
the drastic gradual decrease in the river flows, the report says, there is a net
shortage of almost 600 million cubic meters of groundwater recharge per year,
ultimately resulting in 1.2 meters per year average decline in groundwater
levels. If drastic measures are not taken, Lahore may face a Cape Town (South
Africa)like situation where people have to stand in long queues to get a few
gallons of potable water.
`Indian dams are not just causing droughts but also posing a constant potential
threat of floods.
▪
Before, in case of any mishap in India. It never threatened Pakistan to stop the water because
back then, they did not have the means to do it. Now, when they have constructed the
structures on the rivers are threatengn to block.eg. after uri attack.
o Gd
o Ghd
o Gd
o h
➢ Impacts on Pakistan
➢ Options
o The ideal option for Pakistan is
▪ to revise the clause of the number of projects and have a limit on these
number.
▪ Impose upper limit on the height of the projects
 ▪ The conflict resolution steps must be time bounded
▪ India shall inform Pakistan
• This information shall be given before a planning a project thus,
buying more time for Pakistan.
▪ Effective role of World Bank.
o Proactive foreign policy initiatives rather than reactive because any revision will
need India’s approval
▪ Pakistan should take this matter to the UN. As this water, conflict can
become a nuclear flash point. Any nuclear issue between India-Pakistan
will be a global issue.
▪ Pakistan, China, Nepal have water issues with India. These states can
collectively pressurize India.
o Water management
▪ By increasing water storage, currently Pakistan has 28 days of capacity.
On farm water management in Punjab.
▪ Improving irrigation methods. Drop irrigation and sprinkle irrigation.
Instead of watering the fields, we should water the plants.
▪ Lining of canals.
▪ Shifting away from water intensive crops.
▪ Treating water as national resource. Because even if we install water
meter people will start drawing, their private bores. In case of declaration
of being a national resource, private ownership of water will be ended.
▪ 1.2BILLION tube well in punjab
o Nuclear deterrence.
➢ India says that according to the treaty they have the right to use 20 percent of the water
of the western rivers that flow into Pakistan. So far, were not exercising that right, now
they will.

Democracy
The current democracy in the world is called Liberal democracy.

In Essay and political Science,democracy is liberal democracy and liberty

In Pakistani context, democracyis the civil military equation.

Hybrid War

Mix methods to launch aggression over a country to maximize the harm. Green book ().
India is using these techniques simultaneously to harm Pakistan in all sectors.
Threat of invasion t
Army deployments: 2.5 lakh army personnel deployed at the border of Pakistna. And has
threaten multiple times to invade Jammu & Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan.(Pakistan favours the
war in the Kashmir and India favours it in the main land. Bcz in plain fields India has Numerical
Advantage and in the mountainous terrain, their numerical advantage gets neutralized ),
surgical strikes; India claim 2 surgical strikes while there are records of only Balakot strike.
Indian Air forceinfiltrated in Pakistan. India has the policy that they will retaliate if any attack
takes place againstIndia soldiers. Even in case of a false flag operation they can make it an
excuse to conduct any misadventure.
Aggressive posture; the highest authority has multiple times uttered aggressive statements
against Pakistan inflicting fear.
Proxy war; India is involved in three types of proxy war. 1, through TTP (Latif ullah mehsood
deputy chief of,confessed on camera aboutIndian sponsorship & ahsan ullah ahsan also
confessed that the TTP is backed by India ) 2. India sponsoring Baloch nationalist groups.
Kulboshan jadiv is a vivid example. 3. India creates an environment of conflict among sectarian
groups by propaganda & Target killing. E.g. raja bazaar incident.
Diplomatic isolation; using international platforms to create anti Pakistan rhetoric. E.g.
FATF,India boycott SAARC summit. And even through UN general Assembly to harm Pakistan
position. Propaganda schemes
5th generation warfare; India has been involved in the disinformation labs with the use of media
as a result of which the real enemy is gets under the wraps. And people do not know who is the
real enemy. E.g. the Army public school incident was blamed on Pak Army. They divide the
enemy. Tweets and Facebook pages
Cyberwarfare;amnesty report has unleashed the mala fide Indian use of the Israeli, NSO Group
made Pegasus malware to spy on the PM of Pakistan and other important journalists in
Pakistan. India has the potential to hack into the military installations and other database that
could be fatal for Pakistan. And Pakistan had no cyber security policy till date end of July 2021.
The federal cabinet on Tuesday approved the National Cyber Security Policy 2021 that allows
establishment of a national cyber security response framework as the government constituted
the Cyber Governance Policy Committee to implement the policy. As per the policy, a
cyberattack on any institution of Pakistan will be considered an act of aggression against
national sovereignty and all necessary and retaliatory steps would be taken.
Currently Pakistan has been ranked seventh worst cyber-secure state in the world by
theGlobal Strategies Index and the Global Security Index 2018 report.
Hydro politics; already discussed.
nuclear arms race; to indulge Pakistan in this race to impose economic strain on Pakistan to
match Indian arsenal. The same done by the US to USSR.
Cease-fire violation; Occasional violation of the cease-fire remains a headache for Pakistan.

Kashmir Issue
Dispute= Any issue in which any legal point of view is involved it becomes a dispute. If
an issue is causing legal violation then it is called a dispute. Irrespective of the point of
contention. Ownership issue as well
 Issue=If an issue is not causing any legal violation then it will remain an issue.
Conflict= is on the view and due to which a issue arises.
Crisis= when a dispute affects two or more than two things or has mass affect then we
call it crises.
➢ Before the partition there were 11 provinces in the Undivided India. Bengal, Asam,
behar, madraas, Bombay, uresa, (united provinces of awad & agra)UP, CP, Punjab,
Sindh, NWFP and had 562 princely states.In 3rdJune plane in 1947. Bengal and Punjab
were divided. Balochistan at that time was not a province but a consortium of different
princely states. Pakistan comprise of the areas of divided Bengal & Punjab, Sindh, NWFP,
and Balochistan. And the 562 states will decide on its own to cede to any of the states
keeping in mind their geography. According the 3rdJune plan, on 26th Oct 1947, maharaja
Hari SinghDogra of Kashmir decided to cede it territory to India. On this basis
o that maharaja had decided by himself to cede to India, India claims Kashmir.
➢ Krishna Menon stated in the UN Security Council on Feb 8, 1957, that
“the only international engagements that exist are two resolutions of the
UNCIP dated [Aug 13, 1948] and [Jan 5, 1949].
Pakistan denies this claim on the Basis of
o in 3rdJune plan it was also written that if there is a dispute of excesion of one
state to either dominion. If the majority of the people living in a state are
different in religion than the ruler of the state. Then the majority of the people
will decide the fate of the state not the ruler of the state. Hence, around 85%
people living in Kashmir were so it was the progative of the people to decide.
The same problem rose in Hyderabad, where the nizam was Muslim but majority
of his subjects were Hindus so they decided to cede to India. Same with
malwadar. Junaghar. Unfortunately the same formula was implemented by India
in Kashmir.
o Lord mount betonn’s reply 27th of oct 1947. India claims that instrument of
axxesion was signed on 26thOct. After the partition both India& Pakistan was
government through the 1935 all India act. According to nt. Law , until a newly
formed state does not create its own las will be government through the pre-
partition laws. In pakistna till the constitution of 1956, all india act was in
place.According to the 1935’s act the supreme authority of a country was the
governor general of that state. Indian governor general was Lord mount baton
and Pakistan has M.Ali Jinnah. This intrucment of accession was ot legally
accepted by lord mount batton himself. In face, it was provisionally accepted.
With a provision. Lord replied to this instrument of accession, maharaja this has
been our policy that where there is dispute of accession, the majority of the
people will decide so it is my wish that as soon as law and order has been
restored, you make sure that the wish of people is taken as well to finalise this
 instrument of accession. On this point Pakistan claim that India had accepted to
conduct a plebiscite but now India is denying it, saying it is their internal matter.
o Pandet Nehru’s speech, 2nd Nov 1947. First Prime minister of India.Any
statement by any official of a state is considered as the national statement.
Pandet Nehru in his speak said that Kashmir is a dispute and wish of the people
will decide the fate of the state.And here let me make clear that we have a poicy
long ago that where there is a dispute about the assession of state to either
dominion the decision muct be made by the people state. It in accordance to
thispolicy that we have added a proviso to the accession.
We have declared that the fate ofKashmir is ultimately to be decided by the
people, that pledge we have give and the maharaja has supported not only to
the people of Kashmir but to the world, we will not and cannot back out of this
pledge. This is my pledge that wish of the people be taken into consideration.
This point Pakistan take to the UN that India has given you the pledge not its
your responsibility to make them act upon it.
o UN charter article 2 para 7. UN security counsel has 11 resolution on Kashmir
since 1948. Article 2 para 7 has that UN cannot intervene in the internal and
domestic matters of any state. If UN has passed 11 on Kashmir that means that
Kashmir is not an internal matter of India.
▪ In Article 2(7), it limits the authority of international
organisations and member states to intervene in `matters
which are essentially within the domestic jurisdiction of any
state`.
o India Pakistan question. It was pandith Nehru who took the matter to the
security counsel. And defined as India Pakistan Question. To date, the Kashmir
dispute is registered as India Pakistan Questionin the UN. If it were not a dispute
it could have been named something else. Once registered the nomenclature
cannot be changed in the UN. So this is a proof that Kashmir is joint matter.
o sf
➢ What was Kashmir’s special status and what was article 370.
Article 370 was added to the constitution of 1950.
o According to the article 370 apart from finance communication foreign policy
and defence. Rest of all powers will remain with the state of Jammu & Kashmir.
o Kashmir will have its own flag.
o Kashmir will have its own constitution
o Kashmir will have residential and property laws
o
➢ Article 35A. in 1953 an amendment was done in the Indian constitution. In which they
added 35A. According to this article, 5 new powers were granted to the state of
Kashmir.
 o No one outside the territory of Kashmir can buy land in the area of Kashmir.
o No one outside the territory of Kashmir Can settle in the area of Kashmir
permanently
o No one outside the territory of Kashmir Can avail local govt. jobs in Kashmir
o No one outside the territory of Kashmir Can have local educational scholarships
in Kashmir
o No one outside the territory of Kashmir Can marry the residents of Kashmir.
➢ These five powers were not granted by theIndia. These already existed since 1927
(Kashmir for Kashmiris). India just protected it under its constitution.
➢ India revoked this special status on 5th August 2019. All 9 powers were snatched
Why has India revoked the special status of Kashmir.
o in 2014 victory, modi got into power in lok saba. And had no enough power in
the upper house. When in 2019 he again secured victory, this time he has got
enough power in the both houses. They had absolute power and to make any
changes to the constitution they have gotten all they need. The article were
revoked through presidential ordinance because it was written in article 379 that
article 370 can only be revoked through presidential ordinance. Article 120 of
the India constitution says that presidential order is valid until and unless it is
approved by the both houses. That is why modi waited for the second term.
o It was part of the Hindutva ideology and Hindu nationalistic political party (BJP).
Fascist is an ideology, they support & implement an ideology. This party was
seeking a platform to implement it.and finally in the form of Modi they got it.
o In august 2019, Pakistan was in the grey list because of money laundering and
terror financing. It was revoked at the time when Pakistan was struggling to stay
out of bound of the black list and modi took meanwhile took this action to
handicap Pakistan, that incase if Pakistan takes any step it will be termed as
terror financing and to convince the foreign lobby to black list it.
o In august Pakistan was involved in the Afghan peace process. In sept 2019 the
presidential elections were going to be held in Afghanistan. Pakistan wanted to
resolve the issue before the presidential elections so that somehow Taliban too
could get a chance to be in the government. As Taliban, hold much soft corner
for Pakistan then the then afghan government. As peacefulAfghanistan will lead
to prosperity in the central Asia. India played the Kashmir card at that time to
divert the attention of Pakistan & US towards Kashmir. The process stalled for 4
months and the pro Indian government stood victorious in the elections.
o Economic condition of India. The economic conditions of India were staggering
and to divert the attention of the masses from the miss-handling of the economy
Modi played Kashmir card for the face saving.
How the revocation of the special status was a violation of the laws./ why is Pakistan
concerned about the revocation of the special status of Kashmir?
 o India has violated its own constitution. 370 sub clause 3- this article can only be
revoked or amended through presidential order. And this revocation has to be
approved by the parliament of Kashmir before putting the presidential order in
18place. But since 2019 there has been no assembly so they never asked any
leader. The step we had to take into consideration while merging FATA. We had
to take approval from the assembly of KP.
o India violated the instrument of accession. Violating the article 370 also violates
the instrument of accession. Clause 7 of instrument of accessionmaharaja says
“nothing in this instrument can be deemed to commit me for the acceptance of
any future constitution of India.” By revoking the 370 India imposed its
constitution in Kashmir, violating the instrument of accession.
o India violated Shimla agreement 1972. Shimla agreement 1972, clause 2, sub
clause 2. Zulfiqar ali butto and indra ghandi. Till the final settle of the ongoing
disputes between India andPakistan, no side can unilaterally alter the situation
of anything. But India transgressed this agreement as well.
o India violated the security counsel resolutions. Resolution 91 and 122. In these
two resolution security counsel has clearly stated that India cannot take any step
in Kashmir without theconsultation of the people of Kashmir.
What makes Kashmir a nuclear flash point?
o Kashmir is the only territory in the world that is
▪ Disputed
▪ Surrounded by three nuclear power states
▪ All three have some sort of claims over it.
o PM modi openly threats Pakistan that “ Blood and water cannot flow
together.Pakistan nuclear doctrine says that if India stops Pakistan’s water
supply. Pakistan will retaliate with Nuclear.
o Rajnat sign, Indian’s defense minister on 16-8 -2019. Said that we will review
India no first use policy. They threaten Pakistan.

Implication of the revocation of article.

o Kashmir dispute that led to the creation of the Nuclear weapons to the balance
of power.
o Kashmir dispute has downgraded the bilateral relation between india and
Pakistan.
o It will negatively affect the already crumbling situation in SAARC.
o It will create a security threat for CPEC china –Pakistan economic corridor.
o Kashmir will be India’s Afghanistan. The separatists movement in Kashmir will
ignite the suppressed separatist movement in Khalistan, tamil nadu, assam etc.
o The ongoing dispute will negatively affect the regional and bilateral trade.
o Genocide watch, an international NGO. Published a report in 2020. The territory,
which is prone to genocide right now, is Kashmir.
 o The revocation of the article 370 has internationalized the Kashmir dispute. It
has become the eye catcher. Kashmir was debated over in the security council
after 60 years.

Policy options for Pakistan to counter Indian brutality

o Due to its higher diaspora, people of the world know Indian perspective more
than that of Pakistan’s.Pakistan need to create specialized Kashmir desks in all of
the Pakistan’s embassies around the world. To spread awareness regarding the
Kashmir issue among the international community.
▪ NADRA- over 8.2 million overseas Pakistanis are registered with NADRAas
of 2022.
o Pakistan needs to find avenues of cooperation with on immediate basis with
international media to highlight Indian atrocities in Kashmir.
o We need to focus on CPEC foreign policy (
▪ C=counter India narrative on all international forums
▪ P= push back India through diplomacy.
▪ E= expose Indian brutality and be ready for any Indian military mis-
adventure.
▪ C= confidence building of Kashmiris& conflict resolution of Kashmir.
[Hi Mr.Cat= human development, institutional building, military civilian relation, rule of law,
corruption mitigation, accountability, transparency]

o Pakistan needs to start a BDS(Boycott of Indian entities, Divestment in Indian

products, sanctions through United nations ) movement against India. According
to a BBC report, Kashmiri diaspora boycotted theIndia rice in England and the
rates nose-dived from 15 pounds to 5 pounds per KG.
o We need to be economically sufficient to make an impact on the world’s view.
Beggars cannot be choosers. To be in a position to negotiate and pressurize the
international community to side with Pakistan.
o Plebiscite, Pakistan agrees to it, while India, for India it will be a matter of great
humiliation it lossesKashmir through plebiscite after 70 years. Also, India knows
that plebiscite in Kashmir will be an example for other separatist movements and
the will follow suit.
o Status quo,accept what is with us and what is with others. But no one wants the
otherto have the share.
o Independent Kashmir, every party vacate Kashmir make it independent. But this
is not a viable solution because becoming a landlocked country will make them
dependent either on Pakistan and India for trade. And there cannot be any
industry except for Kashmir.
o Sir Dickson plan, the best solution. Australian high court judge, sent by UN to
Kashmir. He divided Kashmir into 4 parts. ladakh should cede to India as its
 budhist majority. Azad Kashmir & gilgit Pakistan should cede to Pakistan, Jammu
should be split into two part on the line of ChenabRiver and west cede to
Pakistan and east goes to India. In Kashmir valley, plebiscite will be held
o Endora plan , suggested in 1974 by hurriat conference . Endora is a territory that
Spain and France jointly ruled. So do Kashmir be ruled by India&Pakistan? A
demilitarized state, free movement from Kashmir to either side, common
defense. However,both Pak & India declined it.

What Pakistan has been doing to counter Indian aggression?

• Pakistan has successfully fought the Kashmir case in the general assembly’s
annual sessions of 2019 & 2020.
• Due to Pakistan’s diplomatic efforts, Kashmir has been discussed in the UN
after 50 years.
• Due to Pakistan’s diplomatic lobby, China, Turkey, Malaysia, Iran and even
the USA are expressing concerns for the rights of Kashmiris.
• Pakistan successfully fought the Kashmir case in OIC and SCO’s meetings.
o Established by the 14th OIC Summit in Makkah in 2019, the OIC`s
Special Envoy on Jammu and Kashmir has played an important
leadership role in steering the Organization’s principled position on
this issue.
• On internal level, Pakistan’s PM openly declared that there is no point in
talking to India anymore until the Kashmir cause is resolved.
• Pakistan shoed resilience by blocking the Indian trade also not allowing the
Indian supreme leaders to use Pakistani airspace.
• On internal forum, Pakistan renamed the Islamabad Expressway to Srinagar
highway. Symbolic narratives are important in internal forums.
• Pakistan has successfully initiated a new political map, which show Kashmir a
disputed territory and the problem shall be resolved through the resolution
of the united nation.
• Domicile law- article 49 of 1949 fourth Geneva Convention – the occupying
power cannot behold or transfer parts of its own population into its territory.
o We cannot grant GB a provincial status. Because this will justify their
actions and the status quo will prevail.
▪ The point is the GB itself wants to be part of Pakistan but
Kashmir does not.
Examples

o IN the darkest days of the conflict in Northern Ireland, there seemed to be no

imaginable solution. The centuries-old dispute between the Catholics and Protestants
those who wanted to be part of Ireland and those who wanted to remain with the UK
was just too deep. But in 1998 Tony Blair did secure a peace deal and even though that
 historic achievement is now threatened by Brexit, it nonetheless prompts the question:
might a deal on another apparently irresolvable dispute Kashmir be possible too.
o Lambasting the UN for its `double standards` the world body could hold referendums in
East Timor and South Sudan after insignificant unrests, why it was not meeting a similar
obligation in Jammu and Kashmir which had beenon firefordecades.
Can`t the UN see how brazenly India has been violating SecurityCouncil resolutions on
the decades old Kashmir dispute? Can`t it notice the mass killings in public and in
prisons, use of pellet guns to blind peaceful protestors, molestation of women folk,
arson of civilian properties and countless other forms of repression in addition to the
latest abhorrent attempts to change the demography of the territory under its
occupation?
➢ PM of Pakistan has reminded the people of Jammu & Kashmir that once they have acceded to
Pakistan after the UN-mandated referendum in light of the UN Security Council resolutions,
Islamabad would grant them the right to an independent status if a majority so desired.
o His statement draws strength from the Pakistani Constitution. Article 257 of the
Constitution clearly states: “When the people of the State of Jammu and Kashmir
decided to accede to Pakistan, the relationship between Pakistan and that State shall be
determined in accordance with the wishes of the people of that State.”
o to send a message to the people of India-held Kashmir and AJK that Pakistan will
respect their right of self-determination at a time when India is trying its best to erase
the Kashmiri identity by revoking the state`s special status and engineering demographic
changes
Time line of talks
o In the early 1960s, the US used the leverage over New Delhi it had acquired by
supporting India vis-à-vis China, to tell Nehru he should be willing to hold direct talks
with Pakistan on Kashmir. The first round of discussions took place in Rawalpindi in
December 1962, followed by four more rounds in Delhi, Karachi (twice) and Calcutta.
by the time the talks reached a sixth round, both sides were reverting to their
established positions and US pressure in Delhi softened, meaning Nehru saw no need to
compromise.
o Musharraf, after backchannel talks, proposed a package with some similarities to what
was discussed by ZAB. First, there was agreement in principle on de-militarisation.
Pakistan would withdraw troops from Azad Kashmir and reduce cross-border militancy if
India tool (troops out of the Kashmir Valley.
Furthermore, Pakistan would be willing to deepen the degree of self-governance in
Azad Kashmir if India made similar arrangements on its side of the LOC. But alongside
the self-governance there would be a joint mechanism involving the governments of
India and Pakistan which would meet two or three times a year to facilitate issues such
as trade, free movement and, crucially, water

➢ Peaceful protests have started since 1989 demanding the region’s independence from
India.
 ➢ PM khan to an interview to HBO in June 2021 “the moment there is a settlement in
Kashmir, I believe the two neighbors will live as civilized people. We will not need to
have this nuclear deterrence.”
➢ The World Press Freedom Index listed by Reporters Sans Frontieres (RSF) ranks India at
an embarrassing 142 out of 180 countries under the incumbent government.
➢ Freedom fighters started their resistance against the Indian rule in 1989. There are around
500,000 Indian troops deployed in the region
➢ “Gross and systematic human rights violations in Indian illegally occupied Jammu and Kashmir
by 2018 & 2019 reports of OHCHR.
➢ In the year 2021, 57 Kashmiris killed in extra judicial encounters, 350 arbitrarily detained and
arrested and destroyed 57 houses.

➢ a) Jammu and Kashmir is a UN-recognized disputed territory and NOT an integral part of India.

b) Security Council resolutions calling for a Plebiscite remain in force and can be abrogated only
by the Security Council itself.

c) India`s unilateral and illegalactions of 5th August 2019 violate Security Council resolutions
No.91 and No. 122 and are thus null and void.

d) A dialogue between India and Pakistan will be productive once India:

o a. Reverses all unilateral and illegal measures imposed on and after August 5, 2019.
o b. Rescinds the demographic changes initiated in IIOJK, and Halts its oppression and
human rights violations in IIOJK.

The conference between India govt. and the Gupkar Alliance held in Delhi on June 24, 2021,
proves once again that Kashmiris could not be crushed into obedience.

▪ Jawahirlal Nehru imprisoned Shiekh Muhammad Abdullah for 11 years

only to invite him for talks latter.
▪ Jayaprakash send sheikh saab into internment in 1965 and released in 1968
▪ Othe hurriyat leaders have had been under house arrest on and off to date.

Kashmir after abrogation of special status

Future of Kashmir and Modi’s agenda:

• It is being seen the reversal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi hardline policy over Kashmir.

• He wants to meet pro- Indian Kashmiri leaders for resumption of political process in the region.

• Those invited to the meeting, handpicked Kashmiri politicians, include former chief ministers of
Occupied Kashmir Farooq Abdullah and Omar Abdullah (National Conference), Ghulam Nabi Azad
(Congress), and Mehbooba Mufti (Peoples Democratic Party) — three of whom were detained by Indian
authorities after the Aug 5 move. And others. All party hurriyat Conferrence was not invited
 • The BJP govt. through delimitation seeking to add at least seven more constituencies in Hindu-
dominanted Jammu for domination in the future state assembly whenever the polls are held.
Therefore, as stake for some of the participating leaders would be their strategic concern of
maintaining their numerical strength in the future assembly.
• The other move is of granting identity to the region through giving it statehood.

Mufti Mehbooba, former chief minister “we will struggle for 370, be it months or years. We did not get
this special status from Pakistan, but from India, Nehru. There can be no compromise on this”

• The talks would revolve around next state elections in Occupied Jammu and Kashmir, delimitation of
constituencies and granting the region statehood through another Constitutional amendment.

➢ Modi seeks to spruce up image with Kashmir meet with Gupkar Alliance.
o There are reports that leaders of the anti-China QUAD could assemble in Washington
in for their first face-to-face meeting in fall. Should the inevitably turn to human rights,
Modi could find himself in a happier position. And to diute the mounting internaltional
pressure, especially by Biden administration to “return to normalcy as quickly as
possible”
o Modi’s maneuver may also be designed to take edge off criticism by international
human rights abuses and repressive actions.
➢ To get Hindu government in Occupied Kashmir by adding 7 more seats in the Hindu-Dominated
area. And making demographic changes by settling outsiders in the region. Since August 2019
the indian govt. has issued 3-4 milion domicile certificates to (non-Kashmiri) outsiders. A brazen
violation of UN security Council resolutions and international law. Such actions bear striking
similarity to Israel’s illegal settlement policies and are typical of the methods used by occupiers.

Gupkar Alliance why it formed? It’s members

Modi tried to entice the pro-indian Kashmiri leaders but failed to marshal their consent on the
revocation of the article 375.

• The People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) is an alliance of seven parties in Jammu and
Kashmir that is seeking the restoration of the erstwhile state’s special status, which was revoked by the
Centre on 5thAugust 2019.

• Besides the PDP and the NC, the alliance comprises the CPI-M, People’s Conference, Awami National
Conference, the CPI and the People’s Movement. Although the alliance is divided but there is still strong
resistance to denounce the August 5 action.

• These parties had in the past, through the two Gupkar Declarations; 4August 2019 & 22August 2020,
Presided over by Farooq Abdullah, vowed to collectively strive for restoration of the identity, autonomy,
and special status of the state through the restoration of Articles 370 and 35-A.

Stake of Pakistan
• As Pakistan had reportedly during the back channel contacts asked India to reverse its Aug 5 action for
we movement in bilateral relations, the key question here is if restoration of mere statehood would
satisfy Pakistan and the people of occupied Kashmir. Apparently, the answer is negative.

• Statehood without restoration of special autonomous status for Occupied Jammu and Kashmir would
not be acceptable to Pakistan.

• Meanwhile, local Congress leaders in Jammu and Kashmir have maintained that they are not part of
the Gupkar Alliance. As All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) wouldn’t be part of the engagement.
Probable outcome

• Jammu and Kashmir currently does not have an elected assembly. Election to the Jammu and Kashmir
Assembly is likely to be held after a delimitation of constituencies. The absence of an elected assembly
in Jammu and Kashmir makes the DDCs the only bodies that have representation of both rural and
urban areas put together.

• Therefore, at stake for some of the participating leaders would be their strategic concern of
maintaining their numerical strength in the future assembly.

• It would be worth watching if these leaders abide by their commitments made in Gupkar Declaration
or go by their individual political considerations and accept statehood without autonomy.

Pakistan’s point of view about June meeting between Qupkar alliance meeting and Govt.

• Pakistan is of the view that unless and until the Kashmir issue is resolved in accordance with the
wishes of the Kashmiri people and the UN resolutions the tragedy of Kashmir will not end and
peace will continue to elude south Asia. No amount of political mechanisms and round table
conferences can change that reality.
• Delhi conference and similar meetings in the past by previous Indian leaders have been a
deliberate distraction or subterfuge, not a roadmap to the solution of a dispute that has its roots
in denying the people of Jammu and Kashmir of their inalienable right toself-determination
(freedom to choose any course in life at any time).

➢ FM of PAK termed the Modi’s meeting as “Public Relation exercise and a futile action”
On November 24, 2020, Prime Minister Imran Khan approved the creation of the committee.
On June 24, 2021, the body held its inaugural session at the Inter-Services Intelligence's
headquarters

Simla Agreement
 There were three highlights of the Simla agreement. As far as Pakistan was concerned: India
accepted Kashmir to be a disputed territory and Pakistan a party to the dispute; that the UNSC
resolutions had not been nullified; and that Kashmir remained the core issue between the two
countries and there could not be permanent peace without a just solution based on the
principle of self-determination for the people of Kashmir.
`And Pakistan was right in its assessment.

Future of Kashmir

• KASHMIR`s future lies in the hands of its own people. The world outside can and must
help them but it can only help so much and not more. The militancy, which erupted in
1988, served only to revive an issue, which was dormant in the eyes of some. It exacted
a heavy toll on lives in the area. The All Parties` Hurriyat Conference which was formed
in its wake has been an utter failure.
• Its leaders have only proved themselves to be a selfish and self-centered lot. They failed
to provide strong leadership or even a convincing strategy mainly because of internal
bickering. That some prospered was no secret. The only strategy they could come up
with was the strategy of strikes, which imposed a heavy economic burden on the
common people.
• India’s BJP govt. has set up a commission to re draw the constituencies in the jammu
and Kashmir to a covert maneuver to make the Muslim majority area into Hindu
Majority area the same Britishers had done to Sindh by conglomerating it Bombay.

Analysis
• In the 1940s and 1950s, we could get the UN Security Council to pass resolutions
on Kashmir to our satisfaction. Gradually, it became more and more difficult to
get such results.
• India`s recent election to the Human Rights Council with the support of the
overwhelming majority of the UN membership is the latest example of the
international community`s disregard of India`s massive violations of human
rights in occupied Kashmir.
• We seem to be losing ground to India even within the OIC, which refused to
convene an extraordinary meeting of foreign ministers to consider India`s
aggressive steps of Aug 5, 2019, in occupied Kashmir.
• Excessive reliance on moral and legal arguments of our Kashmir case to the
neglect of the demands of realpolitik, which governs international politics
especially in dealing with major issues of peace and security, has been the main
factor which has led to the gradual weakening of our position on the Kashmir
dispute.
• India`s GDP is now estimated to be $3.05 trillion as against Pakistan`s $286
billion.
• At the international level, the defining feature is the growing US-China rivalry
which is deepening the Indo-US strategic partnership.
• The moral is that :
o Pakistan must build up more rapidly than India its national powerdefined
comprehensively in political, economic and military terms,backed by a
proactiveforeign policy for it to have any chance of success in dealing
with the Kashmir dispute. In the interestof political stability, democratic
norms must be strengthened and state institutions must operate within
their well-defined constitutional roles in Pakistan unlike what has
happened in the past.
• For all Kashmiris, Jan 5 every year is a reminder that the promise given to them on Jan 5,
1949, remains unfulfilled. That day, the United Nations Commission on India and
Pakistan adopted a resolution calling for a free and fair plebiscite in Jammu and
Kashmir. Ever since, like a ritual, the Kashmiris mark self-determination day, hoping that
the world would listen.
• India would not be able to maintain the rule over 8 million agitated souls for long.
• sdg

Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action (JCPOA) /IRAN Nuclear Deal

➢ 2022-03-12
➢ VIENNA: Iran and world powers on Friday paused negotiations on reviving a
2015 nuclear deal due to `external factors`, the EU`s top diplomat said after last-
minute Russian demands threatened to torpedo the otherwise largely
completed negotiations.

Eleven months of talks to restore the deal which lifted sanctions on Iran in
return for curbs on its nuclear programme have reached their final stages. But
last Saturday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov unexpectedly demanded
sweeping guarantees that Russian trade with Iran would not be affected by
sanctions imposed on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine a demand Western
powers say is unacceptable and Washington has insisted it will not agree to.

➢ A multi-lateral deal between Iran and US and 6 other bid powers.

➢ Iran has demanded that Saudi and Israel shall not be included in the
negotiations.
➢ the uranium enrichment has reached to 63 per cent a step awayfrom weapon
grade as compared with 3.67 per cent under the deal
Why Biden is so desperate to rejoin the JCPOA?
 o If he did not go for the deal, it will question his credibility and the
legitimacy of the previous deal. To carry on the democrat legacy as the
Obama administration has signed it before. Therefore, stepping aside
from it will shatter that legacy and it will legitimize the argument that
they were wrong in the first place when they signed it, when Biden was
the Vice President.
o The main aim of this deal is to neutralize the Chinese influence in the
Middle East. The recent China –Iran $400 billion deal. Through this deal
US can gain some leverage, easing off the sanctions and if Iran still go
towards China US can threaten Iran again to sanction it, over Iran and
wean off Iran from China.
o Because of this crisis, EU has lost trust in US in trump era. Macron’s
inperson meeting with Trump, trudo’s telephone call. To revive that
o
o trust, Biden has to regain trust.
o Biden administration wants to limit the Iranian missile development and
support for the regional militias.
o To stop the proliferation of Nuclear weapons in the middle east
ultimately to pose a serious threat tot the Israel, who is an iron clad all
of US in the region.
➢ Whatgains is this deal going to offer?
o Improvement in the US-EU relations
o The objective of the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons will be
achieved.
o The rift between Saudi-US & Israel.
o Arab-Israel nexus will improve to counter Iran.
o After this deal Iran is going to get relieved of its sanctions and again
become a powerful economy. Hence the stability of the region will be
challenged, more money more support for the proxy wars in Middle
East, by Iran.
o Energy stability, by Iran pumping its Oil in the international market.
o US leverage over China in the region will increase.
o Iran has been applying for the full membership of SCO since 2008 but it
bit was slowed by UN and US sanctions imposed its nuclear programe.
Now the Moscow and Beijing can endorse Tehran’s membership as they
expect th nuclear issue to be resolved.
➢ What if the deal is not successful?
o A threat of conventional war. As Iran continue to enrich its nuclear
weapons at a higher percentage US or Israel or Saudi might take
aggressive action against it (US policy; at any cost we are going to stop
Iran from acquiring the Nuclear Arm Capability).
o No deal means Nuclear proliferation.
o Iran has threatened to withdraw from JCPOA if the deal does not takes
place and can also come out of NPT by Jawad Zariff.
 o Domino effect. If one state does other follows. If Iran acquires the
weapon other states in the Middle-East might follow suite.
o Risk of energy crisis. In case of wars energy crisis are part of it.

➢ President Rouhani & Barack Obama Administration negotiated a deal and signed
JCPOA in 2015. It limited the Iran’s nuclear facilities and opened it up to more
rigorous inspections in return for the sanction relief.
➢ Iran nuclear commenced in 2015 between Iran and P5 + that Iran would restrain
its uranium enrichment up till 3.67%, that could be used for civilian purpose
only. In return favour crippling sanctions would be lifted Iran.
➢ In 2018 trump unilaterally withdrew from the deal, re- imposing sanctions under
a policy of maximum pressure. This once again rose the tensions in the region
and it convinced the Iranian hardliners that you could never trust America’s
words.
Iran in return has sped up the uranium enrichment (the production of uranium
matel is prohibited under the deal 2015) to putting pressure on other
signatories to provide more incentives to iran to offset crippling US-santions re-
imposed after the US pullout.
➢ President Biden has indicated that he would like to rejoin the JCPOA. “ the only
way out of the crisis is through diplomacy”. But the road ahead is far from
certain. Iran will elect a new president in 2021, who is widely expected to be
more hardline than his predecessor making any end to the feud even more
unlikely.
➢ In the Past, Israel targeted the Islamic Republic’s Nuclear Programme with
Stuxnet malware, while a number of assassinations of Iranian nuclear officials-
most recently that of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh last year.
Israel considers Iran’s attainment of nuclear weapon as an existential threat.
➢ Numerous attacks on Iranian & Israeli vessels in the Middle Eastern Waters.
➢ This proxy war may transform into a Hot war. Tel Aviv will bear the brunt of
responsibility should a wider conflict break out.

Recent Development

➢ On 11th April 2021 Israel targeted the Iranian nuclear facility of Natanz by a
small explosion the day just after celebrated its Nuclear day. Israel tried to
sabotage & subterfuge the current multi-national talks in Vienna and derail any
solution that could keep the Middle east at peace. Iran marked it as “act of
terrorism”
➢ On 12th April 2021 Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad javad zarif warend “If
Israel thought that they can stop Iran from following up on lifting sanction from
Iranian people, they made a very bad gamble”. He further said, “The American
should know that neither sanctions nor acts of sabotage will give them
negotiation tools and these acts will only make situations more difficult for
them”
➢ White house has denied all US involvement
 ➢ Iran vows to upgrade its Uranium enrichment upto 60 % and ultimately to 90%
that is required for a weapon.
➢ Joe biden says he is open to rejoining the pact but Iran needs to return to its
restriction.
➢ The European, Russians and China have been working to preserve the accord.
➢ IAEA (Rafael Mariano Grossi)has found that iran has produced 200 grams of
Uranium metal enriched upto 20%.
➢ Iran say sit has no intention of making of Nuclear weapon it is developing
Nuclear assets for its civilian use.
➢ European members of the JCPOA says that Iran has no credible civilian need for
it and that it is a key step in the development of a nuclear weapon.
➢ Ned Prince (US department spokesman) says “such escalation will not provide
Iran negotiating leveragein any renewed talks on a mutual return to JCPOA
compliance and will only lead to Iran’s further isolation.” Says “US is slowly
running out of patience and this window for talks will not be open indefinitely”
➢ Lavrov “iran no longer meets elements of agreement simply because the US has
left it”
➢ The US State Department said on 4-02-2022 it was waiving sanctions on Iran`s
civil nuclear programme in a technical step necessary to return to the 2015 Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA. the waiver allows other countries and
companies to participate in Iran`s civil nuclear programme without triggering US
sanctions on them, in the name of promoting safety and non-proliferation.
➢ The deal is nearing close.
➢ The IAEA said that as of Feb 19, Iran had a stockpile of 33.2 kilograms of 60pc
enriched uranium material a short, technical step from weapons-grade levels of
90pc.
➢ Iran has converted a fraction of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium into
material crucial for detecting cancers and other diseases, the UN nuclear
watchdog and an Iranian media report said on Friday.

Stumbling-blocks for the revival of the deal

➢ Another obstacle to reaching is an effort by the International Atomic Energy

Agency (IA EA) to resolve questions about nuclear material that the Vienna-
based agency suspects Iran failed to declare.
➢ Gsdg
➢ s

Israel’s concerns
➢ After recent skirmishes between Israeli and Iranians in the IndianOceannaftali
met Biden "no is the time time to stop Iranians, no need to enter into the
already expire nuclear deal which is irrelevant.
➢ Iran had already made progress in uranium enrichment, and that sanction relied
would give then country more resources to back Israel's enemies in the region.
 ➢ The uranium enrichment has reached to 63 per cent a step away from weapon
grade as compared with 3.67 per cent under the deal.
bennett is at odds with the US on the issues such as
o a) The continuation of the construction of settlements
o b) A Palestinian state in the territories Israel captured in 1967.
o c) Reopening of the US consulate in Jerusalem to handle Palestinian
affairs, which Trump has shut in 2019 after moving the US Embassy
from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
➢ Israel`s Prime Minister "his country will not allow Tehran to develop a nuclear
weapon."
➢ "But if diplomacy fails we`re ready to turn to other options." Both Biden and
Bennett were hinting at a possibleuse of military means,
➢ iran had already made progress in uranium enrichment, and that sanction relief
would give then country more resources to back Israel's enemies in the region.
➢ Lapid accused Tehran of trying to get sanctions lifted.
"They will play for time, earn billions from the removal of sanctions, continue to
deceive the world, and covertly advance their nuclear programme,This is what
they have done in the past and it is what they will do this time as well. `The
world must prevent this, and it can prevent this,calling for `tighter sanctions
(and) tighter supervision`."
➢ Israel on Friday appealed to the United States not to remove Iran`s
Revolutionary Guards from its blacklist of foreign terrorist organisations as part
of a revived nuclear deal.
➢

US concerns
➢ Biden administration wants to limit the Iranian missile development and
support for the regional militias.
➢ The United States has described Russia`s new demands
`irrelevant`, while France warned they could dash hopes for
a revived nuclear accord.
Saudi Araibia concerns
➢ Riyadh and its Gulf allies had seen the pact as flawed for not addressing their
concerns over Iran`s ballistic missiles programme and network of proxies,
including in Yemen where Saudi Arabia is embroiled in a costly war.
➢ `We do not want to see a weak nuclear deal because the result will be the same
in the end,` the crown prince said..
➢ Fdsgdfgfd……….f1 attack mar 22
Iran’s concerns
➢ Amir-Abdollahian reiterated that one of the main issues in theJCPOA talks is
obtaining guarantees that the US will not withdraw from the 2015 deal again.
o “We seek and demand guarantees in the political, legal and economic
sectors,”
➢ Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say in major state policies, stressed
that his country will not give up on elements of `national strength`, such as
nuclear progress and regional influence.
➢ `Regional presence gives us strategic depth and more national strength. Why
should we give it up?` Khamenei
➢ `Nuclear scientific progress is also related to meeting the needs of the country in
the near future, and if we give it up, from who and where we should ask for that
in a few years?` Reducing defensive capabilities in compliance with what the
`enemy` wants is `naive and amateurish`, he added.

Russia’s concerns

➢ it wants written assurances from Washington that sanctions imposed on it over

the Ukraine war will not affect its economic and military cooperation with
Tehran.
➢

Islamophobia
Declaration of 15th March as International Day to combat Islamophobia. Pakistan and
Uzbekistan agreed to work towards the designation of this day by the UN General Assembly.
March 15, 2022, declared as an international day to combat Islamophobia.

France and India criticised the resolution calling is singling out of a religion and having not a
pluralistic approach

Analysis

• EUROPEAN states have long professed a commitment to the separation of church and
state, as well as allowing people to live according to their beliefs. However, a series of
events over the last few years has raised legitimate questions about how far this
commitment really goes.
• Europe claims to be the bastion of so-called Enlightenment values, but its record,
particularly in the 20th century, of treating the `other` is not a good one.
• the EU court has also backed a Belgian decision to effectively ban halal and kosher meat
by calling for animals to be stunned before slaughter, which is in conflict with Islamic
 • what great security threat does a woman worker in a hijab pose, or someone eating
halal or kosher meat, for that matter?
• The fact is that many states in Europe are pandering to right-wing populists in targeting
the cultural and religious practices of immigrants and European residents of non-white
backgrounds.
• Instead of the US taking the lead as it may punish geopolitical enemies such as China
and look the other way when friends such as India persecute Muslims perhaps the effort
should be led by the UN.
•
➢ Literal meaning is fear of Islam and Muslims.” Unfounded dread n disliking of muslim which
results in practices of exclusion n discrimination”
➢ Islamophobe know that you cannot end Islam without their carriers that are the Muslims.
➢ It spread from fear to hatred. Initially it was only fear but it has now turned into hatred and
discrimination.
➢ Crusades:- were the first major events that led to the spark of hatred in west for the Muslim.
➢ Richard the lion heart was the most vocal islamophobe and he tried to unite all the west in the
crusade. In Austria his audio tapes are still present in which he is pleading to the European that
there is a muslim problem in the west and to get united against islam invasion into the Cristian
land.
➢ During crusades muslims of the world never united but the Christians were united under
Richard. That shows that Muslims were fighting for the land while Christians were fighting for
their identity. For them it was a matter of Islamic threat. Similarly all Christians got together in
Vienna to fight against ottomans.
➢ Most current wave of Islamophobia reignited with the article written by Samuel P. Huntington
(Clash of Civilization) in 1993. In this article he claimed that before there were conflict sof
ideologies but the future conflicts at the global level will be among civilization. He enlist 8
civilizations and all other civilization is based on culture but the only Islam is formed on the basis
Religion. He tries to single out Islam. an d he says that the major threat to the western world is
posed by Islamic Civilization. He says Muslims have Bloody borders. Where ever the muslim
border touches any other there will be blood shed as happening in the contemporary world. i.e
Kashmir, Bosnia, Palestine.He is indirectly trying to malign Islam and Muslim.
➢ Hence where there is threat it borne phobia. So the foundation of the modern ismophobia was
laid hundington and alikes; burnad levis (book; crisis of Isam). These two writers theoretically
presented this argument against islam and muslims. After these western world starting to view
the issues with this perspective.
➢ The first counter argument came from the Iranian president, syed m. Khatimi in 2001 gave a
speech to the UN general Assembly and in that speech he criticized the perception thatislam
wants conflict civilizations. And he presented himself as the leader of Muslim civilization asking
for dialogues among civilizations. Hence our civilization is asking for dialogues while your
civilization has predicted conflict. He actually meant that islam does not want bloodshed.
Muslim offer truce , dialogue and peace.
➢ As counter argument, Edward saed in book orientalism, a Palestinian American writer
challenged this argument but
➢ Islamophobia is generally defined as “an out-look or worldview of involving an unfounded
dread and dislike of Muslims, which results in practices of exclusion and discrimination”
➢ It has taken a more violent trend with terrorist attacks on Muslim Community and Mosques.
➢ PM of Pakistan urged the OIC to vehemently counter the islamophobia and falsely equating of
Islam with radicalism and terrorism. And Muslim world has failed to convince the West that
blasphemy of Prophet hurts the sentiments of 1.5 billion Muslims and was not an issue of
freedom of expression. He was of view that whenever an incident of terror occurred, the West
maligned the entire Muslim World, which is absolutely wrong an act of individual should not be
called an act of the entire ummah. He has also raised the issue in the UN General assembly and
in a recent interview to the Canadian TV channel; he lamented the issue and the lack of
response on international level.
➢ The islamophobia acts fan the inter-religious hatred and disharmony among civilizations.
➢ Falsely equating Islam with radicalism and terrorism was leading to marginalization and
stigmatization of Muslims.
➢ June 2021 attack on Afzal family in Canada. The suspect motivated by the racist and white
supremacist groups, which have become increasingly active over the past few years. 2019’s new
Zealand Christchurch mosque incident. Quebec City mosque in 2017, killing 6 people.
o A 2020 report on islamophobia submitted to UN revealed that 46 per cent of Canadians
have an ‘unfavorable’ view of Islam and more than a half of the people living in Ontario
felt that Muslim doctrines ‘promote violence’ while 42 per cent of Canadians think that
discrimination against Muslims is their fault.
➢ Anti –Muslim movements existed long before but has ramped
o after the 9/11 incident
o The anti-immigrant campaign, due to political and economic causes has intensified ant-
Muslim sentiments. They think the they are being out-populated in their own country by
people from different cultures who do not respect western values. They believe that
white people are being ‘outbred’ by other races in the west
o Trumpism in the US and the emergence of populist nationalist regimes have also given
impetus to hate-based politics.
o Hate literature and Anti- Muslim websites
▪ In an analysis for the Globe and Mail, Amarnath Amarasingam an djacob Davey
write that in 2020they examines close to 2,500 accounts, channels and groups
on various social media platforms that disseminated extremist right wing
propaganda, producing “nearly four million pieces of individual content”
o Some violent actions by Muslim individuals influenced by extremist ideology too have
been used by racist and ultra- right groups to whip up anti-Muslim sentiments as seen in
France.
➢ International community constantly censures Pakistan for victimization of religious minorities.
The growing issue of misuse of blasphemy laws. Killing in the name of religion. While the
Canadian PM and New Zealand PM stood with the Muslim community in their time of grief
and took the decisive actions against the perpetrators of the crime, our leaders are found
missing when the tragedies occur in our country.
➢ The latest amongst moves contrary to the spirit of tolerance has been a ruling from the EU`s top
court that allows employers to ban female workers from wearing the headscarf while on the job
 in order to present an image of `neutrality`. Instead of strengthening European secularism, the
ban will fuel divisions based on culture and religion. As a spokesman for the Turkish presidency
said, the decision “is an attempt to grant legitimacy to racism”.
➢ Islamophobia has taken many ugly forms across the globe.
o In Europe and North America far-right groups have indulged in antiMuslim violence,
deadly in some cases, emboldened by demagogues and populist politicians looking to
grab a few votes by demonising the other.
o Meanwhile in India, Hindu zealots have lynched Muslims for eating beef, knowing they
can get away with their crimes as the state is sympathetic to their hateful ideology.
o Myanmar and Sri Lanka have also seen incidents of mass violence against Muslims,
often instigated by extremist sections of the Buddhist clergy.
➢ In 2005, some UN members founded the Alliance of Civilisations (UNAOC) to reduce tensions
between the Muslim world andthe West that escalated rapidly after the 9/11 terrorist attacks in
the United States.
➢ In the Russia-Ukraine war the following comments were made by the westernmedia showing
their bigotry towards Muslims.
o French broadcaster BFM TV.
`We are not talking about Syrians fleeing the bombardment of the Syrian regime,
supported by Vladimir Putin, he said.

`We are talking about Europeans who are leaving in their cars, that look like our cars...
and who are just trying to save their lives.
o 48th council of Foreign minister 2 agendas i. Afghanistan ii. islamophobia
➢ 2022-03-17
THE UN`s decision to recognise March 15 as the International Day to Combat Islamophobia must
be lauded, especially in the backdrop of global hate crimes and state-sanctioned bias against
Muslims. The decision was approved by the UN General Assembly after a resolution was
introduced by Pakistan. Along with calling for the international community to curb
Islamophobia, the resolution also condemns bias against followers of other faiths. The sad truth
is that for millions of people around the world, Islamophobia is not some nebulous concept, but
a toxic everyday reality.
Islamophobia can take several forms, which can include insidious attempts to exclude Muslims
from jobs, housing and education on the basis of their faith. Or it can take more violent forms,
such as state-sanctioned attacks and pogroms targeting the Muslim community. All of these
manifestations of hate need to be combated vigorously. Islamophobia was given a fillip during
the so-called war on terror when the actions of violent actors, claiming to be fighting for the
glory of Islam, resulted in ordinary Muslims having to face the consequences. In the post-9/11
era, the repercussions include profiling on the basis of faith, as well as deadly vigilante attacks
on Muslims or those who `look` like Muslims. Today, anti-Islamic prejudice has taken on new
forms, especially at the state level.
The decision by the Karnataka High Court in India to uphold the hijab ban in educational
institutions comes across as one that has been heavily influenced by the desire of the state to
`otherwise` the Muslim community. Sadly, the Indian government wants to dictate what Muslim
women can or cannot wear. However, India`s hijab controversy cannot be seen in isolation. It is
part and parcel of the anti-Muslim rhetoric that the chauvinist BJP government has been
pushing ever since Narendra Modi took power. Discriminatory citizenship laws, lynching of
 Muslims on suspicions of consuming or transporting beef, and bans on communal prayers are all
part of this sinister anti-Muslim action that the BJP has been pushing.
It is exactly this type of hatred that the day against Islamophobia seeks to highlight.
Even elsewhere, decisions to ban or limit the sale of halal meat, as in Europe, along with
attempts by far-right parties in the West to demonise Muslims, illustrate the need for a
concerted effort to combat Islamophobia. Pakistan has done the right thing by bringing this key
issue to the global stage. In a world riven by hatred, efforts are needed to promote tolerance
and pluralism. This includes allowing followers of all faiths to practise their beliefs freely, while
Muslim states also have a responsibility to protect their minorities from extremists.
Unfortunately, populists and rabble-rousers always exploit the schisms in society. To counter
their designs, states and conscientious citizens must resist this rising tide of hate by actively
working towards a more tolerant world.
o However, France and India criticised the resolution calling is singling out of a religion
and having not a pluralistic approach. They pointed out Christianophobia, antisemitism
etc. to be all included in the resolution. While France was concerned that it was
infringing the right to debate and criticise religion.

US – Taliban peace deal & US pull out.

➢ DOHA deal, February 2020 laid ground for the complete withdrawal of American forces.
The Taliban’s commitment that they would not allow any militant group to use Afghan
soil for attacks on any country had cleared the way for Doha accord that led to the
agreement on the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Afghanistan.
➢ Currently the 50 per cent of the territory is held by the Afghan government troops,
while 30 per cent is under the Taliban’s control the remaining 20 per cent is contested
for. The official fear that this could soon change the signs on ground, as the vacuum
created by the withdrawal of the alien forc0es will be some filled by the insurgents.
➢ The soldier besides having an upper hand on the insurgent feel demoralized as the they
would soon be facing the shortage of ammunition, low quality weaponry, inadequate
support from the government and corruption.
➢ More than 40,000 Afghan civilians have become death’s morsel – (Watson Institute)
➢ More than 35,000 International soldiers killed – (Watson Institute)
➢ At least 64,100 Afghan Military and police personnel dead – (Brown University )
➢ More and more trained afghan soldiers are joining the Taliban.
 ➢ The ‘troika’ (US, Russia, China) meeting in march agreed that they will not let Taliban to
establish an Islamic emirate.
➢ Around 1300 soldiers fled to Tajikistan as the Taliban fierce offensive surges in the
northern districts.
➢ the extended Troika US, China, Russia and Pakistan plus Iran (who will need some persuasion)
should consider mounting collective pressure on the Afghan parties to encourage them to work
for an orderly transition to an interim government.
After 15 august, take over by Taliban
• Taliban know that they need international aid to rebuild their war-wracked
country, whose internal dimensions will otherwise ensure perpetual instability
and chaos.
• Testing times for Biden
o While most Americans agreed with him, that end has not come smoothly.
Biden`s presidency, which had been focused on fighting the coronavirus
pandemic and rebuilding the economy, now f aces political probes over
the handling of the withdrawal as well as the logistical challenge of
finding new homes for thousands of Afghans being moved to US military
bases.

o Biden also must contend with a surge in coronavirus infections, disasters

like hurricanes and wildfires, and a series of difficult deadlines for getting
spending measures through Congress.

o Republicans and some Democrats have expressed frustration and anger

at the rapid fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban and what they see as a
botched withdrawal.

o Republicans are expected to use the crisis to try to derail Biden`s policy
and legislative agenda and as a talking point in the mid-term elections
next year

What is for US in Afghanistan

➢ Recent Development
➢
o With 2400 deaths, US has said that it has had enough. Before 20thanniversary on
11 sept US vows to pull out.
o On 14 April 2021,Joe Biden while announcing the complete pullout of US troops
before sept 11. “We will hold the Taliban Accountable for its commitment not to
 allow any terrorist to threaten the US or its allies from Afghan soil. The Afghan
government has made that commitment to us as well”
o Joe Biden said, “We will ask other countries in the region to support Afghanistan,
especially Pakistan, as well as Russia, China, India and Turkey. As these countries
have a significant stake in the stable future of Afghanistan”
o US wants the conference to be held, to which Taliban has boycotted, in Turkey
on 24th April to get the Afghan Government & Taliban to agree to some form of
unity interim administration and map a future for the country by consensus.
While Taliban- without being specific- want Afghanistan to become an Emirate
again, ruled Islamic law by religious elders.
o This will mark the end of the Unipolar moment.
o President Joe biden end the ‘forever war’ and said that it has achieved its
objectives, to root out Al- Qaida and prevent another attack on the US like
before. Once Al- Qaida had been degraded and Usama bin laden eliminated a
decade earlier.
o Since 2001, 775000 US troops have been deployed
o In October 2001, Taliban reached a surrender agreement, after their first stint in
power between 1996 and 2001, with newly appointed afghan president ‘Hamid
Karzai’ in Kandahar that would have allowed the leaders of the ousted regime to
go home. But then US intervened and stopped Karzai from making any deal with
Taliban leadership.
o US has deployed it Eisenhower aircraft carrier for some time in the CENTCOM,
central command, region to provide security to the withdrawing forces.
o Afghanistan is described as the “ graveyard of empires”
o Wants to watch over the region by cooperating with Pakistan.
o Mr. Prince “legitimacy and assistance for any Afghan government can only be
possible if the government has respect for human rights, has credibility and
legitimacy even in the eyes of its own people” US warned Taliban that would
would not accept a government imposed by force. Us biggest aid donor, spent
$35.5 billions in 2020, Germany $28.4 billion, Britain $ 18.6bn, japan $16.3bn,
France $14.1bn
o According to US intelligence “Taliban would roll back much of the progress made
in Afghanistan women’s rights if they regained power”
o Biden “US suppor to Afghanistan was not ending but would be sustained despite
US pullout”
o Joe Biden “US military is keeping an over the horizon capacity” which could bring
firepower to help the government and its forces if needed. But he also said “Afghans
are going to have to do it themselves”.
o Us to keep 650 troops to safeguard its embassy
o Joe Biden “it is the right & the responsibility of the people of Afghanistan alone to
decide their future and how they want to run their country”
o indirect interventions tend to allow proxies to grow stronger. The entire effort in
Afghanistan against the Soviet invasion was fought by proxies, and at present, Syria is
one such place where the US as well as others are supporting different
groups.Afghanistan is one place where proxy war by regional and bigger powers has
always been a constant; Pakistan is just one player among many.
Instead of just looking at the 1990s, perhaps present-day Middle East may also provide a
sense of what is to come in Afghanistan
o Blinken warned the Taliban they would have to change if they wanted global
acceptance.

`The Taliban says that it seeks international recognition, that it wants international
support for Afghanistan. Presumably it wants its leaders to be able to travel freely in the
world, sanctions lifted, etc,` he said.

`The taking over of the country by force and abusing the rights of its people is not the
path to achieve those objectives.`

While the Taliban political leadership appears more moderate and flexible in their views
on social issues there is no evidence that the commanders leading the fighting would
also be amenable to change. Some of the statements from the leadership recognising
the right of women to work and education are, perhaps, meant to allay the fears of
Afghans, as well as of the international community, regarding the possibility of the
Taliban reverting to their old ways and attempting to re-establish a tyrannical rule.
After 15 august
• Concerned about the China will ecploit the US withdrawal to futher their
influence in the region.
• Does not want india & Pakistan to allow their rivalry to further strain the already
tense situation in Afghanistan.
• Biden admin “it is no haste to recognize the Taliban government.”
• Secretary Blinken acknowledged that the long conflict had taken a terrible toll on
the Afghan people, displacing millions and forcing others to face hunger, even
starvation, while the pandemic made things worse. That is why, he said, the
United States will continue to support humanitarian aid to the Afghan people.
‘Consistent with our sanctions on the Taliban, the aid will not flow through the
government, but rather through independent organizations, such as UN agencies
and NGOs, ` he said.
• The United States, he said, will also continue its broad diplomacy across all these
issues, which includes staying engaged with Afghanistan`s neighbors and others
who have influence in the country
• Biden “we have ended 20 years if conflict in Afghanistan. And as we close this
period of relentless war, we are opening a new era of relentless diplomacy”
 • Us treasury Department has issued licenses to facilitate humanitarian aid and
financial assistance to the people of Afghanistan, while upholding sanctions on
the Taliban.

Loses incurred by the US

• US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) pointed out

that Washington spent 20 years and $145 billion trying to rebuild Afghanistan, its
security forces, civilian government institutions, economy, and civil society.
• The Pentagon also spent $837 billion on warfighting, during which 2,443
American troops and 1,144 allied troops were killed and 20,666 US troops
injured.
• Afghans faced an even greater toll. At least 66,000 Afghan troops and more than
48,000 Afghan civilians have been killed, and at least 75,000 have been injured
since 2001. SIGAR described both as `likely significant underestimations
• Brown university “since the Sept 11, 2001, US military outsourcing pushed up
Pentagon spending to $14 trillion.”
• SIGAR “More than 3,500 US contractors died in Afghanistan and Iraq and more
than 7,000 American service members died during two decades of war.”

Afghanistan under Taliban

https://epaper.dawn.com/DetailNews.php?StoryText=17_12_2022_006_004
Haibatullah Akhundzada supreme leader

Mullah barader= co founder

Siraj ud din haqani= head of Haqani network

Mullah Yaqoob son of Mullah omer= head of mitary commission.

Al Qaida Chief = Ayman al-zawahiri

Taliban government

Prime minister= akhunzada hassan

Interior minster= siraj haqani

Foreign minister= ameer mujahid

Defence minister= Mullah M.Yaqoob

o Resuming the peace dialogue. As they would not want to risk losing the
international recognition and legitimacy they now have. Release of their
prisoners and removal from UN sanctions can only be secured through
diplomatic engagement. An option that would help them elicit international
support and assistance needed in post-America Afghanistan.
o US & its allies troops should evacuate as early as possible.
o Taliban says that it will continue to launch offense, as the US did not respect the
Doha deal agreement, which stated that US would withdraw its forces by May.
o Taliban refused to attend the Istanbul 10 day peace conference form 24april to
4th may hence, the meeting was postponed till Eid ul Fitr.
o They have realized that they have gained the legitimacy in the regional politics.
o They are gaining more confidence as their threat to Pakistan over the issuance of
the air strips to the pentagon suffice the seriousness of the threat they pose
that they have reached to level where they can threaten a country that has not
gone against them since their inception.
o While US want to put Turkish garrison to secure Kabul Airport, Taliban does not
want to have troops from any Muslim country on Afghan soil even for the
security of the important installations, which can damage its legitimacy in case of
clash or attack. “Foreign forces should hold no hope of keeping a military
presence in Afghanistan after the US and NATO withdrawal, as the security of
the embassies an airports would be the responsibility of Afghans”.
o Pakistan’s influence over the group appears exaggerated. They are not getting
influence by Pakistan as it would give an impression of being a merely proxy, that
follow the plans of others and do not enjoy the freedom to pursue their own
objectives.
o Their military victories over the government forces have seemingly given the
militia the idea that they can take power through force, bypassing the
negotiating table.
o Taliban would not attend any meeting until they are relieved of the UN sanction
and until the release of their prisoners.
o Co founder and deputy leader of Taliban Mullah abdul Ghani Baradar “genuine
Islamic system in Afghanistan is the only way to end the war and ensure rights
including for women”
o Taliban representatives have however sought to reassure anxious neighbours
that they pose no threat to the region.
o they have announced they plan to accelerate the peace process in the coming
month and present a written peace proposal. Their spokesman declared last
 week that `Although we have the upper hand on the battlefield we are very
serious about talks and dialogue`.
o “If Turkish officials fail to reconsider their decision and continue the occupation
of our country, the Islamic Emirate... will take a stand against them” the Taliban
said in a statement, referring to Turkey`s plan.
o Taliban spokesperson Suhail Shaheen said that the insurgents want to “have
good relations with all countries of the world.” “If any country wants to explore
our mines, they are welcome to, he said. “We will provide a good opportunity for
investment”.
o Haibatullah Akhundzada “We fully assure neighbouring, regional and world countries
that Afghanistan will not permit anyone to pose asecurity threattoanyothercountry
using our soil.” “ we strenuously favour a political settlement”
o The group is now believed to control roughly half of the nation`s 400 districts, several
important border crossings, and has laid siege to a string of vital provincial capitals.
o Shaheen dismissed Ghani`s right to govern, resurrecting allegations of widespread fraud
that surrounded Ghani`s 2019 election win “Before any ceasefire, there must be an
agreement on a new government acceptable to us and to other Afghans,”he said. “Then
there will be no war.”
o Prime Minister Khan said he had tried to persuade the senior Taliban leadership during
their visit to Pakistan earlier this year to come to a political settlement but they had
refused to talk to President Ashraf Ghani.

He said he had suggested an interim government in 2019 before the Afghanistan

presidential election but `the Afghan government was very critical about this remark [...]
Once President Ghani got elected and the Taliban were excluded, it was always going to
be a problem from then onwards since he insisted they talk to him while they didn`t
recognise him or the elections`
After 15 august
• Zabihullha mujahid Talibanspokesperson “They would not allow
Afghanstan to be used as a launching pad to attack other countries.”
• Will not go after those who resisted them during the previous tenure.
• Private media to remain independent but should not work against the
national values.
• Letting women work inaccordance with the principles of Islam.
• India can complete their construction work on the projects but would not
allow them use the afghan soil against any other country or to achieve
any military objectives against its rivals.
• Will not allow any country to interfere in the state affairs of Afghanistan.
• Will temporarily adopt Afghanistan’s 1964 constitution that granted
women right to vote but eliminate any elements they disagree with
Challenges for Taliban rule
▪ Acceptance: The government of President Ashraf Ghani failed to
meet the aspirations of the people, as their standard of living
barely improved with poor basic services such as health and
education. The government was mired in corruption, while the
security situation remained precarious, forcing thousands of
Afghans to leave the country. Many notorious militia leaders and
their henchmen were rehabilitated despite their atrocious human
rights records and corruption.People were frustrated and ready
for change, but that does not mean they welcome the return of
the Taliban. “While some Afghans certainly have strong
preferences and support one side versus the other, a great
number are caught in the middle of not being particularly
enthusiastic about either side,” said Schroden, who heads the
Countering Threats and Challenges Program.
▪ Stretched forces: In a span of weeks, the armed group captured
most of the provincial capitals, including the capital Kabul, in a
virtually unopposed, lightning military sweep that brought back
memories of US-trained Iraqi troops fleeing battlefields in face of
marauding ISIL fighters in 2014.The Taliban launched its military
offensive in May as US-led foreign forces started to withdraw
from Afghanistan as part of an agreement the group signed with
the US on February 29, 2020, in the Qatari capital Doha. Afghan
security forces either surrendered (after mediation from local
tribal elders) or withdrew, giving the Taliban fighters a walkover in
some northern and western provinces. Now with almost all of
Afghanistan under their control and fewer than 100,000 active
combatants, the Taliban will be stretched thin, analysts say. “The
Taliban found it easy to seize a large number of districts, but
holding on to major cities is another proposition – one requiring
significant amounts of manpower,” Schroden said.A former
Afghan minister told Al Jazeera that the Shughnan district in
Badakhshan province was taken by just “six Taliban fighters” – it is
home to an estimated 60,000 people. And there have been other
instances where a handful of fighters have been able to claim
significant territory. This was also confirmed by the Taliban. The
Taliban has announced a general amnesty for government officials
as it looks to retain as many people in their current roles as
possible.Unless it boosts the number of law enforcement
personnel, the country is susceptible to unrest and
lawlessness.Meanwhile, former Vice President Amrullah Saleh and
Ahmad Massoud – son of Tajik Mujahideen commander Ahmad
Shah Massoud – have already called to challenge Taliban rule.
▪ Governance:The Taliban has been good at one thing – fighting.
How will they govern this diverse country with almost negligible
 modern infrastructure?“The Taliban have yet to demonstrate
their ability to effectively govern. They did not do so when they
ruled Afghanistan, and they have not shown such an ability in the
areas they currently control in the country,” said Schroden from
CNA.The Taliban have at times been credited with being good at
maintaining security – albeit through very heavy-handed means –
and providing efficient forms of traditional justice, but they have
little to no technocratic understanding of how to perform the
other functions of government.The group will likely struggle to
provide effective governance to the people of the country as the
government does not have much revenue to spend on public
services – this is the essence of its problems today.“There are the
issues of retaining enough manpower, bureaucracy and civil
servants to run the affairs of the government. With an exodus of
people, one vulnerability could be an insufficient number of
professionals and people in the technocratic cadres to run state
institutions,” said Omar Samad, senior fellow at the Atlantic
Council.
▪ Controlling its forces: The war against a foreign occupation united
the Taliban’s rank. Now, when these fighters become governors
and mayors and have access to incoming revenues and authority –
will they go down the same route previous governments followed,
and end up accused of corruption and abuse of power? “This will
be an interesting dynamic to watch. The Mujahideen struggled
with this in the wake of the Soviet withdrawal when they no
longer had the unifying cry of defeating the godless communists
and turned their weapons on each other,” Schroden said referring
to the war against Soviet occupation in the 1980s. “The Taliban
are aware of this risk and have spent the past seven years or more
improving the vertical and horizontal linkages within their
organization to strengthen its cohesion. To what extent those
efforts will prevent Taliban fighters from deciding to cease the
fight when the rallying cry of foreign invaders is gone remains to
be seen,” he said.
▪ The Past: The Taliban’s last stint in power between 1996 and 2001
was marred by abuse against ethnic minorities and curbs on
women’s rights, while the country was isolated
internationally.Since retaking power on August 15, the Taliban’s
talking points include respecting women’s role in the public
sphere, human rights and the rights of minorities. But the world,
and more importantly Afghans, are waiting to see if those words
turn into action.The US invaded Afghanistan in 2001 for its links to
al-Qaeda, which was blamed for the 9/11 attacks, and the Taliban
will be closely watched to make sure it is keeping its promise not
 to provide a haven to armed groups such as al-Qaeda and ISIL.
“Afghan history in the last 50 years is replete with the rise and fall
of regimes and governments. Very few have had a second chance,
and if they did – like the Mujahideen’s – they were short-lived,”
Samad, who is a former diplomat and adviser to the Afghan
government, told Al Jazeera.“They face a huge challenge to
ensure an acceptable level of human rights and gender rights
policies, media and civil society laws, ethnic rights and minority
rights. Also, to visibly sever ties with militant and terror groups.
Time will tell if any of these lessons have been learned.”
▪ Economy and reliance on foreign aid: the primary economic
shock to Afghanistan was the abrupt cut-off of aid about $8 billion
a year and the freezing of Afghanistan`s $9bn of foreign exchange
reserves. Afghanistan is one of the poorest countries in the world
and more than 20 percent of its gross income comes from foreign
aid.The US froze $9.5bn of Afghan central bank’s assets in the
wake of the Taliban takeover, while the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) suspended access to its funds. Many other Western
donors might follow suit, making it extremely difficult for the new
government to run the economy in a country where 75 percent of
public spending comes from grants. Significant mineral wealth
remains underground as instability has prevented major
exploration and international investment. Although the Taliban
have been talking to Russia and China about possible economic
cooperation projects, it remains to be seen how that will
materialise. It would also need humanitarian agencies to provide
urgent aid to Afghans displaced by the war. More than 5 million
Afghans are estimated to be internally displaced. The UN says
nearly 400,000 people have been displaced this year alone as a
result of ongoing violence. But with aid agencies, including the
UN, pulling their staff out of the country, things will be difficult for
people dependent on foreign aid. In order to unlock international
funding, the international community’s recognition of a Taliban
government will be key, as the group is still blacklisted by the UN.
The Taliban has shrugged off the idea of reliance on foreign aid,
saying its fighters survived on bread and water while fighting the
war. The question remains: Can it convince millions of Afghan
civilians to live without the foreign help they have relied on for
years? It is also an opportunity for foreign donors and aid
agencies to persuade the Taliban to accept their terms in return
for aid. But Jonah Blank, a lecturer at the National University of
Singapore said: “Money is not really as powerful a tool as some
outsiders might think.” “As long as it [Taliban] has enough funding
to fulfil its basic ‘duties’ (as it sees them) then I think it’s not really
 going to care whether an extra billion or two here or there comes
into the treasury,” Blank told Al Jazeera’s ‘Counting the Cost’
show.
o The IMF`s action, stopping of Aid to Afghnaistan, followed
a similar decision by the Biden administration to freeze
about $9.5 billion of the Afghan government`s reserves in
US banks.
o The World Bank has committed more than $5.3 billion for
development projects in Afghanistan. The bank-
administered Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund also
has raised more than $12.9 billion for the country.
o the world bank grants finance around 75% of the public
expenditure.
o President Joe Biden`s move to split frozen Afghan funds equally
between 9/11 victims and humanitarian relief for the war-
ravaged country.
▪ How can the Afghans be blamed for the 9/11 terrorist
attacks? The majority of them in the country were not
even born when 9/11
▪ called “theft”, came at a time when nearly half the
country`s population of nearly 40 million f aces severe
hunger and a million children are in danger of dying
because of harsh winter conditions and virtually no
medical care.
▪ Indeed, the US has pledged more money than any other
country for the Afghan relief fund. But the continuing
financial sanctions and the splitting of Afghan assets will
make this counterproductive.
▪ It`s a false narrative that easing financial sanctions
would help the Taliban regime. In fact, by seizing
Afghanistan`s assets, the US would lose its leverage
over the regime to remove restrictions on women to
work and access education and to allow a more
inclusive political set-up in the government.

The Taliban is still listed as a terror organization in UNSC

resolution 1267 of 1999.The resolution put sanctions on Taliban
and froze their funds and other financial resources because it
gave shelter to Osama bin Laden, wanted at the time for the 1998
bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.

• Afghan Taliban has replaced the ministry for women with ministry for the
“propagation of virtue and prevention of vice”

Precarious situation persisting in Afghanistan

 • The UN World Food Programme has called for urgent action to protect
millions of Afghans from starvation. It has warned that over 22.8m Afghans,
who constitute nearly half the total population, are facing food insecurity
while 3.2m children under the age of five can suffer from acute malnutrition.
This is a country where only 5pc of the people have enough food to survive,
according to reports.
• At a donors` conference in September, the world community pledged $1bn in
humanitarian assistance a third of which was to go to the WFP amounted to “a
drop in the ocean”.
• The WFP said that it needed as much as $220m per month to help stave off
death due to hunger.
• The Asian Development Bank estimated that about two-thirds of Afghans live
below the international poverty line of $1.90 per day.
• Afghan women constitute 48 % of the total population. Marginalizing them
an denying their right to education can hamper the chances of a prosperous
Afghanistan in the post-Taliban period.

Afghanistan’s future

Taliban may have been successful in the offensives and ousting the foreign
invading forces but running a country in all another ball game.
o Afghan government thinks that Pakistan has an influence over the Taliban and
thus can play a massive role in the restoration of peace in the region.
o Requested Pakistan to nudge the Taliban office in Doha for the 3 days cease fire
on EID.
o National security advisor Hamdulllah Mhib “Pakistan reposibe for the ills in
Afganistan”
o The Govt. Is taking assistance from the local warlords]\ to stop the resurgent
Taliban, raising spectra of a full-blown civil war.
o Pakistan Airforce is defending the Talban at spinboldak crossing with Pakistan.
After 15 august

What is for Pakistan in Afghanistan

o Pakistan wants peace in Afghanistan as it suits Pakistan in term of the C.A energy
and a low purchasing power Muslim market, which would be able to purchase
the goods from Pakistan.
o Pakistan wants that the Afghan soil should not be used against it. As it fear of
Indian military presence in Afghanistan ramping up the proxy war against
Pakistan. Similarly, the potential resurgence of the Pakistan Taliban.
 o Pakistan wishes that US & allies should pull out soon so that People of
Afghanistan should decide by themselves.
o Pakistan is willing to provide every king of regional support to Afghanistan
o Pak and Taliban both know that they are hand in glove for the regional peace
and security along with the economics so they need to cooperate following the
US forces withdrawal.
o Pakistan’s assessment is that Afghan security forces do not have the capacity to
hold territory after the American withdrawal.
o Pakistan fear that the withdrawal may start a civil war in the quest for power and
resulting in spillover effect forcing the refugees to flee to Pakistan, which is
already muddling through its staggering economy. According to UNHCR, arounf
2.5 million afghan refugees live in abroad and 4.8 million have been displaced
within the country. They fear more refugees after troops withdraw. And have
started planning to cater those refugees. However, the budget they receive is
not meeting the needs of the refugees. Theanarchic situation could also be
exploited by the TTP, who has sanctuaries in Afghanistan and they might join
hands with Baloch separatists to launch attacks in Pakistan.
o With the presence of more than 2 dozen militant groups in the region will
compete for the territorial control once the UN forces leave resulting in Civil war.
o Pakistan’s FM Shah Mehmood Qureshi “ Pakistan is engaging in the international
community for building the peace process in Afghanistan with honesty and
sincerity”
o
o PM Khan in an interview to HBO in june 2021 “we are not going to be part of any
conflict any more.” “a political settlement in Afghanistan would mean a sort of
coalition government, a government for the Taliban side and the other side.”
➢ Pakistan has repeatedly complained that the global community does not value its sacrifices in
the war on terror.
➢ According to GD ISPR Maj Gen Iftekhar Babar Pakistan Lost 83,000 lives and the war on terror
costed it almost $ 126 billion.
➢ Not just the refugee problem but also the possible strengthening of the TTP due to its links with
the Afghan Taliban.
o Dr. moeed yusuf “India that has been support the Afghan government against
Taliban and always blamed Pakistan for dealing with Taliban is now holding back
channel talks with Taliban and are dealing with them”
➢ Afghan Air force wanted to strike Taliban at spin boldak crossing from Pakistan side,
which was denied access. Pakistan would not allow its soil or airspace against anyone
any where. It has no favourites.
➢ Pakistan, the PM said, would deal with any government in Afghanistan, `elected or selected` by
its people. “An inclusive government would be the best”
After 15 august
• FM reaffirmed that Pakistan would continue to play its constructive role in
support-ing a peaceful, united and prosperous Afghanistan. He reiterated that
Pakistan saw `comprehensive dialogue` as the only way for a political solution in
Afghanistan.
• Islamabad on the arrangements made by the government to facilitate the evacuation of
members of the international community, including diplomats and staff, representatives
of international organizations, INGOs and media, from Afghanistan. This will improve
the relations with the respective nations as Pakistan helped them in this crucial hour.
• Pakistan would not unilaterally recognize the Taliban govt.
• No other country is more desirous of peace and stability in Afghanistan than Pakistan.
• Pakistan has consistently supported the Afghan peace process and have extended
necessary development assistance. We have committed over $1 billion forprojects in
health,education and infrastructure in Afghanistan.
• Pak FO spokesman “we have summited a detailed dossier with the world community
last year, containing irrefutable evidence of India’s involvement in terrorism activities in
Pakistan and the use of Afghanistan soil for this purpose”.
• Pakistan would ask the incoming government in Afghanistan to act against the banned
Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan.
• NSA "we need to move past the problems and work together (US -Pakistan) in
Afghanistan." "Afghan instability could lead to more terrorism, refugees and economic
hardships for Pakistan"
• DGISR "Pakistan ready to train and assist the afghan Administration if sought" only 6
cadets were sent to Pakistan military institutions while hundreds to India by the
previous government.
• senator Graham "any sustainable solution in afghanistan must include Pakistan"
• PM “World has two choices with Afghanistan – either engage with it or abondana it. We
have seen in the past how abandoning the country led to the rise of terrorist groups
with disastrous consequences for everyone.”
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• Advantages of having Taliban in power
o Kabul will not have a pro-India regime with an intelligence service like NDS
actively promoting instability in Pakistan
o Peace in Afghanistan would mean redeuced pressure of refugees coming into
Pakistan, and possibly at a future date a return of some of the nearly four
million Afghan refugees currently in Pakistan
o Pakistan could open up a land route to Central Asia and beyond and push
forward its geo-economic agenda
o Pakistan could also try and settle its TTP problem once and for all if the Taliban
regime is willing to cooperate in all aspects
o a peaceful western border would enable Pakistan to focus more on the
continuing threat from the eastern border
o Pakistan, having its cultural harmony and the sense of being a Muslim
brother country could result in close relations between the two.
o The tilt of both towards the Chinese bloc is likely to further cement the
ties. In return Pakistan wants it to be strict on TTP.
o To facilitate travel, Pakistanabolished the requirements of `gate pass` and Covid-
19 PCR tests for Afghans travelling to Pakistan via land border. Moreover, visa
on arrival facility was announced for sick Afghans coming here for treatment
and businesspersons.

Pakistan embassy in Kabul has been given authority to grant fiveyear multiple
entry visas to Afghan businesspersons. Similarly, service fee for visa processing
has been abolished till December.

Timings for pedestrian crossing at the border have been increased from 8 hours
to 12 hours per day. Cargo movement through the border crossings would now
continue 24 hours a day. Afghan trucks would, meanwhile, be allowed to carry
goods up to Karachi port, whereas Pakistani truckers would be able to travel
into Afghanistan with their cargoes.
o The Taliban regime supportive of the connectivity projects, including CASA1000
and TAPI gas pipeline.
o High-level sources have told Dawn the government`s assessment is that it
has a window of about six to eight months to strike an agreement with
the TTP from a position of strength. This assessment is based on the
following reasons:
▪ (1) India was one of the primary supporters and financiers of the
TTP based in Afghanistan. It provided money,weapons and other
support so that the TTP could maintain its capacity to launch
terror attacks on Pakistani soil. Since the takeover by the Taliban,
India has withdrawn from Afghanistan and the TTP is weakened
due to the lack of support it was enjoying. However, officials
assess that India is likely to start regaining a foothold back in
Afghanistan in the coming months and this could embolden the
TTP. In addition, the TTP is also deprived of other sources of
external support now that foreign players have withdrawn from
Afghanistan. This situation may not persist for long.
▪ (2) The Taliban`s dependency on Pakistan is also greater now and
may decrease over time as other players enter the equation once
international recognition is accorded. This dependency on
Pakistan at this moment means the Taliban can push the TTP
towards a deal that Pakistan favours. The Taliban, according to
these officials, have greater incentive to ensure the TTP agrees to
the terms being offered by Pakistan. The situation could be
different six to eight months from now.
 ▪ (3) Pakistan`s military and counter-terrorism capacity is primed to
lean heavily on the TTP and this is buttressed by the fact that
border fencing between Pakistan and Afghanistan is almost
complete.
▪ In yet another important development, high-level sources have
also confirmed that in order to ensure that lethal weapons left
behind by the Americans in Afghanistan do not fall into the hands
of TTP and other terrorists, Pakistan is buying back a huge cache
of these weapons from the Taliban government who are now in
possession of these weapons. It is estimated that US forces left
behind nearly 200,000 deadly weapons. Taliban need the money
and Pakistan wants to do whatever it can to make sure TTP
fighters do not get access to them. According to these sources,
Pakistan has already bought a large number of these weapons,
which may be given to paramilitary forces like the FC.
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• Disadvantages of having Taliban in power
o The fears of scapegoating by the US and other Western nations remains real
even though it has not picked up momentum.However, handled deftly, and with
greater support from China and Russia, Pakistan can push back if such a
campaign is orchestrated. If the Taliban behave, and do the right things, the
prospects of a Western blowback against Pakistan can diminish significantly.
o The risks are high for another round of India-Pakistan proxy war in Afghanistan.
many conceive the Taliban takeover as the defeat of India’s soft power and
covert strategy in Afghanistan . India will continue to use all its overt and covert
tactics to take revenge.
o There is a lobby in the US that favours a long term plan for proxy warfare so that
America can sustain its global influence to achieve strategic objectives,which
cannot be attained through regular warfare. To keep China busy in its
immediate neighborhood is one of its strategy.
o Qatar and Pakistan have played an effective role in US-Taliban deal however,
the military leadership of the Taliban seems more inclined towards Saudi Araba
and the UAE,these countries are close allies of the US and have been developing
a strategic relationship with India.
o Since Taliban see the win as theirs alone, they don’t seem to be in the mood to
listen to anyone including Pakistan, long seen by the international community as
a benefactor and protector of the Afghan militant group with extraordinary
influence over it.
o Inspired by the `grand Taliban win` next door and the rollout of anti-women
policies, some voices are already being heard that are suggesting the same here.
 With the passage of time and with more concessions being made to extremists
they can only gain in strength.
o Afghanistan will certainly encourage violent radical and extremist narratives and
movements in Pakistan, which will not be easy to deal with.
o Pakistan`s religious landscape is fertile for radical ideologies. As the moderates
struggle to make themselves relevant in society, the clergy declares them
`innovators` or biddati, who, they say, reject the traditional tenets of the
religion. The clergy in Pakistan is largely literalist in its understanding of religion
and takes pride in being the so-called custodian of tradition.
o Also, is there a game-plan to deal with the hostile TTP elements who, according
to knowledgeable sources, may vastly outnumber those seeking a peace
accord? And this question becomes even more poignant now that it is becoming
abundantly clear that any thought that TTP would be dealt with by the Afghan
Taliban, the allies Pakistan sheltered for years, was delusional.
o considerations for supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan and the constant push
by the current government for recognition and working with the Afghan Taliban
is concerning, especially considering the known links they have with the TTP.
Several TTP prisoners in Afghanistan have been freed in the past month, and
this has coincided with strengthening of their rank and file in Waziristan and
other newly merged districts of KP.
o TTP now feel strengthen while oberseving their counterparts in Afghanistan
taking back crontrol of the land from the aliens.
o NSA "Afghan instability could lead to more terrorism, refugees and economic
harships for pakistan"
o
o how is the public education system going to even cope with additional school-
aged children?
o Most Afghan refugees would take up low-paying jobs in the informal economy,
thereby taking away jobs from already poor Pakistani citizens. Finally, more
pressure on public services, education and jobs would invariably lead to ethnic
strife, especially in big cities like Karachi.
o Taliban & IS-K fight has already entered Pakistan where IS-K has carried out
multiple attacks in recent years on alleged Afghan Taliban members and
associated religious scholars in Balochistan and KP. In October, the IS-K claimed
the targeted killing of a militant, Noor Zaman, said to be affiliated with the
Haqqani Network of the Afghan Taliban nearWana, the headquarters of South
Waziristan tribal district. Last month, the group 1(illed a JUI-F leader on
suspicions of his links to the Taliban.
This trend suggests that the conflict between the Taliban and IS-K will add to the
insecurity inside Pakistan besides widening the Salafi-Hanafi divide in the
country or at least in the Bajaur, Mohmand and Orakzai tribal districts,
▪ IS-K has waged an extensive propaganda war against the Taliban
declaring them allies and puppets of the US, who have deviated from
 their jihadist purpose; this was the Taliban propaganda against previous
Afghan governments.
▪ The Taliban leadership also remained apprehensive about the Saudi..led
religious diplomacy initiatives to reconcile with the Ashraf Ghani
administration.
If Saudi Arabia recognises the Taliban regime and provides economic
assistance, there could be consequences for the Salafists in
Afghanistan. It is not certain how Riyadh will act in the future but Saudi
Arabia as the current chair of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation
has requested a special meeting on Afghanistan, which will be held on
Dec 19 in Islamabad, and the pledges and declarations can help assess
the Saudi policy towards Afghanistan.
The Taliban also have apprehensions that if not Saudi Arabia other
external players can use IS-K to weaken their regime.

o Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS) in a security report for the year 2021. said
developments in Afghanistan continued to influence Pakistan`s militant
landscape and security in 2021 with a 42 per cent surge in terrorist attacks
compared to the previous year.
A total of 207 reported attacks in the year claimed 335 lives an increase of 52pc
from those killed in such attacks in 2020 andinjured another 555 people.
The 335 people killed in terrorist attacks included 177 security forces personnel,
126 civilians and 32 militants. The report said despite their repeated promises to
not allow anyone to use the Afghan soil against Pakistan, the Afghan Taliban
have not yet seriously considered to act against the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban
Pakistan (TTP).
o Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia Programme at the Washington-
based Wilson Centre. The plain truth is that most of the terrorist groups
operating in Afghanistan, aside from IS-K, are Taliban allies, as they fought
alongside the afghan Taliban and sacrificed greatly over the past 20 years war.
And the Taliban are not about to turn their guns on their friends, even with
mounting pressure from regional players and the West.
o Any probable operational alliance between the TTP and Al Qaeda or with ETIM
against Chinese interests in Pakistan can prove lethal and cause a diplomatic
crisis.

• Analysis
o US Institute of Peace (USIP) reminds the United States and its allies “ the
Taliban regime`s relations with Pakistan will shape Afghanistan`s future,
o Five recurring drivers of these tensions, according to the report, are:
sovereignty concerns, security interests, geopolitical dynamics, cross-
border ties, and connectivity and trade.
• What can Pakistan do for Afghanistan?
o It can crash training courses to Afghanistan by inviting their staff to Pakistan to
incapacitate them to take over essential services like electricity, medical &
finance facilities.
o PM at 76 UNGA session “there is only one way to go, we must strengthen and
stabilize the current government for the sake of the people of Afghansitan”
o
o One way in which these negative impacts can be ameliorated is by
ensuring that Afghan refugees only settle on the western side of the Pak-
Afghan border.
o Pakistani state and society must do their utmost to assist Afghans in this
time of need by sending teachers, doctors and nurses to these refugee
settlements, while ensuring protection.
o assign economy experts to manage key institutions like Da Afghanistan
Bank. Pakistani policymakers can assist Afghanistan by letting Afghan
importers pay in their local currency for Pakistani imports, at least for
essential items.
o Pakistan hosted a special meeting of the OIC foreign ministers in
December 2021. To highlight the predicament of the afghnis to the
world.
o Had Afghanistan one of the main agendas of 48th FM meeting of OIC.
March 23, 2022, when a TRUST Fund has been launched to support the
war stricken people.
• What pressure is Pakistan facing due to the Taliban take over in Afghanistan?
o congress has passed a bill to review Pakistan’s actions over the past 20
years of the US invasion of Afghanistan and if found guilty could be
subjected to sanctions
o US media outlets accused Pakistan of “bring a spokesperson” for Kabul
new rulers.
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• What Pakistan should avoid doing?
o There is a recurring tendency to cry conspiracy and resort to a victim narrative
when faced with a setback. This resort to conspiracy theories frees government
officials from responsibility and from having to do anything to remedy the
problem at hand. The government mislead people by invoking conspiracy as an
expedient diversion from owning up their own responsibility. Leadership is
about guiding public attitudes not leveraging social prejudices and irrational
viewpoints for political advantage.
 o The narrative of victimhood is frequently deployed by senior ministers on a
diverse set of issues which include the country’s economic difficulties, relations
with key countries and dealing with international financial institutions.
o Rather than articulating Pakistan’s policy and explain policy actions, top officials
often bemoan how unfairly Pakistan is trated inmedia interviews ---- As if saying
that will influence the world or put the country In question on the defensive.
o The inordinate focus on the past, and a recount of the history of being wronged.
o Whining over issues is tiresome for others and does nothing to advance
Pakistan’s case in the international arena. It only exposes the country’s
vulnerabilities to its detractors. A whining tone only reflects helplessness and
frustration. It also conveys the impression of being stuck in the past and being
bereft of anything substantive to say.
o Sinister moves by the country’s adversaries area a reality but they have to be
evaluate and responded to with seriousness away from the glare of publicity.
Taking about them won’t make them go away.
o If everything is someone else’s fault it also takes away the incentive to solve our
own problems and take steps towards the country’s renewal.
o There is also a tendency of the general public’s readiness to believe conspiracy
theories. And social media fuels and amplifies it.
o

• How can Pakistan neutralize the pressure/ justify its stance of supporting the Taliban
regime?
o FM denies the alligations levelled by US news saying that Pakistan has to watch
what happens in Afghanistan because iwhat happens there has a direct impact
on us.
o Afghanistan is our immediate neighbor. The geography cannot be changed
according to one wishes.
o It is not in the Pakistan’s interest to go too far in advocating for the Taliban
regime in Afghanistan before the International community. Countries around
the world would not make up their mind in accordance with what Pakistan has
to say but according to their own interests. In fact this makes their skepticism to
rise even further about the latent interests of Pakistan. Pakistan can highlight
the gravity of the consequences to itself, to the regional countries and the world
as a whole but should not do it at the cost of its own interests.
o To this end, Pakistan will need to put some distance between itself and the
Taliban. This will enhance its leverage with the Taliban as well as its credentials
as an honest broker between them and the outside world. It would involve a
high calibre of diplomacy
What is for India in Afghanistan
o India has been the Second largest investor in Afghanistan with over $3 billion on
roads, power stations and even built its parliament following the ousting of
Taliban in 2001.
o India is concerned about the “Spoiler” countries that could benefit from the
vacuum that would be created once the US and NATO force leave the region. As
General Bipin rawat said, “Our concern is that the vacuum that will be created by
the withdrawal of the US and NATO should not create space for disruptors”.

After 15 august
• India is most worried about the post America afghan situation as the
investment made by India in pursuit of its dreams to promote its soft
power in the country and to use the afghan soil for the proxy war in
Pakistan. India is also anxious as the Taliban government in Kabul can
support the insurgency in Indiaillegally Occupied Kashmir. it could not be
ignored that India could use other insurgent groups, directly or indirectly,
like resistance forces of Pansgsher, ISKP, and other anti-Taliban factions
to destabilize the Taliban government.
•

What is for China in Afghanistan

o Neighbour of Afghanistan
o It can deliver massive economic resources. Both Kabul and Taliban have seen
China as a valuable partner.
o Beijing has talked of extending the China Pakistan Economic Corridor to
Afghanistan.
o China is also vulnerable to the extremist politics of the region that fan the flames
of religious and ethnic separatism in China’s Muslim majority Xinjiang province.
o Growing instability is a nightmare for Beijing, as it can affect its internal security,
hinder Belt and Road Initiative and increased uncertainty in the region.
Established peace in Afghanistan would be a great relief for China.
o China will play a leading role to invoke the regional countries as well as SCO to
establish peace in the region.
o Afghanistan shares only a small 76-kilometre (47-mile) border with China, at high
altitude and without a road crossing point.
But the frontier is a big concern because it runs alongside Xinjiang, and Beijing
fears its neighbour being used as a staging ground for Uyghur separatistsfrom
the sensitive region.
o “China can deal with the Taliban...but they still find the Taliban`s religious
agenda and motivations inherently discomforting”` said Andrew Small, author of
The China-Pakistan Axis.They have never been sure how willing or able the
Taliban really are to enforce agreements on issues such as harbouring Uyghur
militants. For Beijing, a stable and cooperative administration in Kabul would
pave the way to an expansion of its Belt and Road Initiative into Afghanistan and
through the Central Asian republics.
o These projects include the giant Aynak copper mine near Kabul, for which a
Chinese company secured a potentially lucrative concession in 2007 but where
work has long been stalled due to conflict.
After 15 august
• China is ready to accept/ cooperate with Taliban in rebuilding their war
torn country.
• In return China wasn’t to safeguard its short border with Afghanistan
from the extremists and possible separatists movements.
• the regional power - China & Russia - also covet a stable and peaceful
neighbor so they can focus on their global rival, the US. China and US are
ensnared in a Thucydides trap.
• China can also expands it BRI project to the chabahar and in return
Taliban would be able to secure more jobs andeducation opportunities
for its subjects.
• China wants to extend the $ 60 billion cpec project to Afghanistan.
• MES AYNAK: The ancient Buddha statues sit in serene meditation in the caves
carved into the russet cliffs of rural Afghanistan. Hundreds of meters below lies
what is believed to be the world`s largest deposit of copper.
Afghanistan`s Taliban rulers are pinningtheirhopes on Beijingto turn that rich
vein into revenue to salvage the cash-starved country amid crippling
international sanctions.

The Fighters standing guard by the rocky hillside may once have considered
destroying the terracotta Buddhas. Two decades ago when the hardline Taliban
 were first in power, they sparked world outrage by blowing up gigantic Buddha
statuesin another part of the country, calling them pagan symbols that must be
purged.
But now they are intent on preserving the relics of the Mes Aynak copper
mine. Doing so is key to unlocking billions in Chinese investment.
o (Side note; Taliban has also been duplicitous in their stance or morality
when they allowed an Australian journalist to give birth to his out-of-
wedlock baby in Afghanistan, which they would have never tolerated for
an Afghan lady.Afghan women who stand betrayed by everyone and
were held hostage, first by the Taliban and their idiocy and then by a
US/Nato invasion that used them as pawns for their own strategic
objectives. Now, they are back to being used as pawns by the Taliban
again to get international funds based on their accessibility to public
spaces, jobs and getting education.)

What is for Iran in Afghanistan

o Iran’s stakes & ambitions are high.
o Shares physical borders with Afghanistan.
o Iran contributes to the regional coalition against Taliban rule during 1996-2001.
o Javad zarif has said that a return to the 1990s and the restoration of the
Taliban’s emirate in Afghanistan are simply not acceptable.
After 15
august
• Iran and the Taliban have also developed good relationsfollowing the notion
that the enemy of the enemy is a friend and that is US.
• they both has bitter relations in the past due to sectarian differences but
Iran’s desire to reach the central Asian market and the Taliban’s desire for
having more allies have resulted in the rapprochement between them.
• Iran also wants to coax the Taliban to ensure the safety of the Shia Hazara
community in Afghanistan who faced thousands of executions because of
sectarian differences.
• iran can exploit the absence of the americans and the sanctions imposed by
ousted government, a puppet of american, by selling exporting oil to the
taliban governed Afghanistan.

What is forRussian in Afghanistan

o Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said Russia is concerned the instability could
spur terror threats and proliferate drug trafficking.

Russian tanks deploy near Afghan border Russian tanks deployed near the Afghan-Tajik
 border on Tuesday ahead of military exercises Aug 5-10, and Moscow announced more
drills in neighbouring Uzbekistan as regional tensions over the Taliban`s territorial gains
in Afghanistan remained high.
o T-72 tank crews.
o A senior Russian diplomat has said that Moscow views Taliban gains in northern
Afghanistan as having a security upside because the group is hostile to what Russia
regards as more dangerous Islamist extremists.
After 15 august
• Lavrov “if you think that any country in Centarl Asia or elsewhere is
interested in becoming a target of the refugee influx so that the
Americans could fulfill their initiatives, I really doubt anyone needs that”
• The Taliban government in Afghanistan can act as a buffer zone for Russia
against ISIS.
• It is supporting the Taliban because it does not want a US- backed
government in its backyard.

What is for Middle East, Europe & turkey in Afghanistan

o Saudi- Arabia and UAE recognized the Taliban rule of 1996, besides Pakistan.
o While the US is away they want to bring a Turkish garrison to secure the Kabul
Airport, which has led to concerns within Taliban ranks about the possibility of
Turkey playing an active military role in Afghanistan.
o Erdogan “America is preparing to leave Afghanistan soon and from the moment
they leave, the only reliable country to maintain the process over there is
obviously Turkey”
o Critics see turkey’s offer as being part of an effort by Erdogan’s govt. to mend
ties with the US, which have been deteriorated over an array of disagreements.
Turkey’s purchase of S400 missile and US support to Kurdish fighters in Syria.
o Ankara, which has offered to run and guard the airport in the capital after Nato
withdraws, has been in talks with the United States on financial, political and logistical
support.
o Prime Minister Imran Khan said on Thursday Pakistan would influence the Taliban for
holding direct talks with Turkey to secure Kabul International Airport after US troops
completely exit the conflict-hit Afghanistan by August 31.
After 15 august
• Has dropped the option of the Kabul Airport handover option.
• Turkey says it will be there to help Taliban in securing the Airport and any
operational support if needed.
• Nato says it has the capability to strike terrorist groups from distance if any
terrorist activity hold against Nato allies.
 • Turkish defense ministry "Turkey will continue to be with the Afghan people
as long at they want.The conditional request by the Islamist Taliban (The
Taliban have made a request for technical sup-port in running Kabul airport.
However, that the Taliban demand for all Turkish troops to leave),leaves
Ankara with a difficult decision over whether to accept.
Erdogan “no Afghan Airport deal without inclusive government”
• UAE, previously ran Kabul airport during the US-backed Afghan republic. The Qataris
have been helping run the Hamid Karzai International Airport along with Turkey.
o While there is little commercial benefit for any operator, the airport would
provide a muchneeded source of intelligence on movements in and out of
the country, according to the four diplomats, who said that since the
withdrawal many countries have lacked real-time information.

Analysis
• A major impediment in the way of a breakthrough are the differences between the two sides
vis-à-vis priorities. While the Afghan side insists on a ceasefire before there can be any real
dialogue, the Taliban want a firm commitment regarding the establishment of their strict
version of a Sharia system.
• There is also a huge gap between their respective views on an inclusive government comprising
all segments of Afghan society and ethnic groups. The Taliban have never come out clearly
about their interpretation of an inclusive system and whether they believe in elected
democracy.
• Growing fractiousness within the Afghan government. Many Afghan leaders blame Ghani`s
obstinacy and temperament for the growing divide. there have been an increasing number of
voices for the president to step down and give way to a more acceptable interim administration.
• Other anti-Taliban groups has also been a reason for their not coming out with a coherent policy
in peace talks. The rise of regional militias led by warlords has further diminished the
government`s writ. Although they pledge their allegiance to the government in Kabul, these
private armies are meant to protect the fiefdoms of local strongmen. More worrisome are
reports of some of these warlords having connections with certain regional countries.
• The group now controls border crossings and main trade routes with all neighbouring countries,
denying the Afghan government a major source of income from custom duties and transit fees.
Fierce fighting is going on in large swaths of Afghanistan. Such strategic military gains have
certainly given the Taliban an edge over the Afghan government. But their objective of a military
takeover of the country is neither achievable nor will it be acceptable to the international
community. Despite battlefield gains, the insurgents have not been able to take control of any
major Afghan town. It may be either part of their strategy or a lack of capacity or both.
• The Taliban cannot think of ruling Afghanistan without international legitimacy. Meanwhile, the
withdrawal of foreign troops doesn`t mean that the US is completely out of the Afghan scene.
President Joe Biden`s administration has pledged to continue supporting the Afghan
government forces. The US base in Qatar is now being used for training these forces.
• More important, however, will be the role of regional countries to push both warring sides
towards result-oriented negotiations.
• There seem to be two views of this in Pakistan probably mirroring similarly divided opinion
among the international community. The first is that the Taliban are not interested in serious
negotiations until they take control of the country. Only then will they offer talks from a position
of uncontested power and on their terms. The other view is that the Taliban are aware of the
risk they run in going for a military takeover losing international legitimacy and the recognition
they secured after the Doha agreement with the US.
After 15th August
• It may be easy for the insurgets to take political control but running the state that has
been torn apart because of the decades of occupation as well as the diverse social and
political landscape, would be difficult.
• Taliban will be dealing with the new generation of afghan men and women who are
more aware of what is happening around the world. I will be hard for the conservative
movement to reverse the course of social change that has taken place over the two
decades.
• Taliban cannot run Afghanistan isolated from the world, they need aid and international
assistance to rebuilt and run their bleak economy.
• It remains to see whether they fulfill their solemn promises or not.
• It is worth remembering that Afghanistan has known nothing but war for more than 40
years now.
• Their utility for Pakistan has reduced.
• PM Imran is sincere in urging the international community to lend a hand, the Taliban
government is doing itself no favours by refusing to accommodate any demands of the
international community, including Pakistan. Not only is the Taliban leadership showing
reluctance to include other ethnicities in its government set-up, it has flatly declined to
entertain the idea of having women representation in government. To add insult to
injury, the Taliban are cracking down on girls’ education and restricting women from
working in the offices. This is what they had promised before taking over Kabul.
• Taliban official have declared they will start harsh punishments including executions and
amputations.
• This intractability may appeal to the Taliban hardliners but it will ensure that their
government will not get the recognition they want any time soon.
• Economic collapse would cause further instability in Afghanistan to the advantage of
terrorist groups such as the so-called Islamic State that is already active and has
intensified its terrorist attacks in the country. There are other terrorist groups too
operating in the country and threatening regional security.
This situation also presents a serious dilemma tothe international community: the
collapse of the Taliban regime could lead to renewed civil war in Afghanistan with
regional countries getting sucked into it. That could turn the fear of Afghanistan once
again becoming a haven for transnational terrorist networks into reality.
Such a dire prospect has also been the reason why Russia, China and other regional
countries have been calling for active and supportive engagement with the Taliban
 government. It may also be a reason for the Biden administration to soften its position.
This week, the State. Department announced that it was working closely with the UN
and other countries to `find ways to offer liquidity to infuse` so long as international
support does not flow to the Taliban.
• Taliban had announced general amnesty.
o But according to Human Right Wing report, the Afghan Taliban for the alleged `summary
killings` of dozens of former security forces personnel and enforced disappearances
• A fraction of what its former occupiers spent on the war could today potentially save millions of
lives.
• Afghanistan disappearing from the Us policy discourse after the Russia’s attack on Ukraine.

What the International community wants.

• Taliban not allowed to address the general assembly as it would interpret that UN has
recognized it.
• Guterres “we want Afghanistan to have an inclusive government, respect human rights
especially of women and girls and never be again a center for terrorist. We all want
afganistan to fight drug trafficking.”
• Allowing foreign nationals and afghans to travel outside the country
• Preventing terrorist groups from using asghanistan as base for external operations that
threaten other countries.
• Respecting basic human rights, particularly women , children and minorities and
refraining from reprisal.
• Allowing unimpeded humanitarian access.
•

Israel- Palestine Conflict

History

Israel want to saqueez Palistine as much as they can

➢ Jews believe that they had been promised them that one they will be allowed to re-
enter the promised land (land between river Nile and Euphrates)
➢ Before WWI, jews established their first organization, which annoucfnced to facilitate
the return of the Jews to Palestine. Jews bought land from the poor Ottomons. Because
they had money. Jews migration started.
➢ 1914-1918’ war in which the Ottomons were defeated and during the war when
ottomans were at the bring of defeat, Belford Declaration was announced (British govt.
announced their policy that jews had the right to have a home land in Palestine.becasue
 British needed jews finance to fight. Hitler hated Jews because Jews helped the British
to defeat the Germans and also because of the Jedo-Cristian civilization. In cristianity
jews are considered more respectful. Old testimen (Torah) is respected as the New
testimen (Injeel). After the war ottoman empire fragmented. And Arab land was divided
into British control and French control(Syria, Lebonon).
➢ In 1920, British were in control of the Palestine. So they allowed Jews to Migrate. Mulim
and Jews started fighting with each other.Hitler started killing Jews due to which the
migiration saw a surge.
➢ Arab league formed in1945.
➢ In 1947, British asked the UN that it cannot manage Palestine and wants to leave
Palestine as a Two-State. Muslim state and Jews state. The arab states opposed the
partition plan. Because they wanted a complete Palestine and it should be a unitary
state with an elected assembly in which the total jewish representation should not
exceed one-third. And they proposed the ARAB PLAN . During this time Jews declared
their independent state of Israel in 1948. As soon as Jews announced independence.
Arab states declared war. And Arab lost the war and Israel captured more area. And
almost 500000 Palestine refugees settled in neighbouring states.
➢ In 1957, Sues canal crisis; Egypt Nationalizes the Suez canal. And it blocked the
European trade. British influence and Israel declared war on Egypt, defeated it. Since
then Suez canal is International waters.Egypt was a major support to Palsetine and it
weakened then and ultimately were unable to help Palestinians. The Isreal’s Power
grew.
➢ In 1964, Arab league established PLO (as a formal militant group), yasir Arafat. With
started attacking Israel.
➢ In 1967, Arab- Israel war, Arabs were defeated in just 6 days. Arabs ceded many
territories the most significant was the East Jerusalem. Which was under Jordan
(promised to be given as Palestinian capital). Syrian Golan Heights (border among
Jordan, Lebanon,& Israel) which Israel has occupied since 1967 and unilaterally
annexed in 1981 .
➢ In 1973 war, Arab tried to defeat Israel. They lost more territories this time. Yom Kippur
war. Israel captured Sanai.
o Yom Kippur war, on the 6th of October, 1973, Egypt and Syria launched
a coordinated attack on Israel on the Jewish Holy Day, Yom Kippur. The purpose
of the attack was to gain the territory back, which was lost to Israel in 1967. The
Egyptian and Syrian forces had almost overcome Israel, until the involvement of
the US in the war.US President Richard Nixon ordered to provide Israel with
weapons as well as other supplies, known as Operation Nickel Grass. The tide
had turned to the Syrian and Egyptian forces, mainly due to the operations
carried out by the US to aid Israel in the war. This ended in increased tensions
between the United States and OPEC.On the 17th of October, OPEC initiated an
oil embargo against the US and the allies of Israel, because of their support for
 Israel in the Yom Kippur War. The countries also cut down the oil production to
5% initially.

o Egypt became the first state to make peace with Israel and recognize Israel in
1979, followed by Jordan in 1994, then after 2000s UAE, Bahrain, Morocco&
Sudan Followed suit. Camp David accord 1978 (Israel agreed to quit the Sinai
Peninsula in return for Egyptian recognition of the Jewish state). After that Egypt
became neutral. Sanai was returned. Meanwhile PLO continued to fight.
➢ In 1980s, PLA was targeted by Hizbulah. PLO lost all the territories to take refuge in.
hence it make peace with Israel. In 1987, this first Itefada (uprising) the first
massive uprising of Palestinian against Israel. This result inBirth of Hamas.Palestinian got
divided into two groups.
➢ Palestinian first intifada against Israel 1987-1993.
➢ In 1993, Oslo accords were signed betweenPLO and Israeli state. In this accord, Israel
agreed that Palestinian has the right of a state. PLO recognized Israeli state and to end
militancy and become a political party. Israel agreed that there must be a Palestinian
Authority that should govern the Palestinian territories. By 2000, once all the issues are
resolved.(this was a road map, when and how it is going to be, but not a peace plan,
how to solve the problem.). but till 2000, no outcome was witnessed as promises were
not kept.
➢ Palestinian second intifada against Israel 2000-2005.
➢ In 2002, Arab peace proposal, Land for peace proposal. Mainly came from
Saudi Arabia. The solution was, if Israel returns all the land and territories it occupied
during & after 1967 war, all Arab states including Saudi Arabia will recognize it.
Quardate diplomacy. US,Russia , UN & EU. They will mediate between Palestine-Israel.
➢ in 2018, trump appointed his son in law Jared Kushner as the advisor to middle east. He
came up with a plan Trump’s proposal( official title, peace to prosperity: a vision
to improve the life of Palestinian & Israeli people)(deal of century) (fraud/steal of
century)
Economic plan (june 2019)
It was stated that US offers $50 billion of economic aid and investment package for the
Palestinians. But when the political plan is finalized.

Political plan

Refugee issue:
o the Palestinian refugee that weredisplaced as a result of multiple war. According
to UN their urrent number has grown to 4.5 million.
 ▪ Palestinian demad their return to their home land. They cite the
International law, which the UN agree upon. That it is the right of the
refugees to dwell in their home land again.
▪ Israel is of the view that they must not be called back. Because the
territory which they has left behind is now under Israel’s control. If they
return they would become Israeli Citizen and they cannot accommodate
4.5m Muslims. And in the near future Israel will become aMuslim
majority, which they cannot accept.
▪ Trump, in this deal, suggested that no refugees will return to their home
land.
East Jerusalem issue:
o Occupied by the Israelis in the 1967 war.
▪ Palestinian demanded the return of East Jerusalem because it is the
proposed capital of the Palestine.
▪ Israeli declined because in 1982 annexed the east Jerusalem through its
law it merged it into its territory can called it their capital.)so they cannot
negotiate over the capital at any cost.
▪ America shifted it’s embassy to Jerusalem. America’s official policy was
that they do not consider Jerusalem as a disputed territory. They consider
it Israeli territory till a final deal it struck. Trump in 2018 shifted its
embassy. It declared East Jerusalem as the Capital of Israel.This became
one of the reasons that Palestinians boycotted the talks. And trump
proposed a slum area at the outskirts of Jerusalem where Palestinian
capital can be founded.
Israeli settlements issue:
o Settling of the Israeli migrants (settlers) in the settlements. The settlements are
made inside the Palestinian territories in the form of small towns. Dozens of such
settlements since 1967. Which all the international bodies have declared illegal.
▪ Palestinian says that those settlements be abolished and should be
returned to the Palestinians. Palestinians reacted to this proposal.
▪ Isreali says that these settlement belong to them and they will annex
them as well. They has abstained from it because the fear of the backlash
from the Western community. EU has made it public that if Israel annex
these settlements it will impose sanctions on it.
▪ Trump changed the US policy towards these settlements and made it
legal in 2019. In the Trump’s proposal. Trump stated that Israel must be
given 30% of the West Bank(that included East Jerusalem, settlements,
Jordan valley, Jordan river there has importance for the Israelis).And
Palestine can have the remaining 70%.
▪
 ▪ Palestinians view the settlements now housing some 700,000 settlers as
the main obstacle to peace, and most of the international community
considers them illegal.
▪ Israel annexed east Jerusalem and considers the entire city to be its
capital. It views the West Bank as the biblical and historical heartland of
the Jewish people. But it has refrained from annexing the territory
because of international pressure and because it is home to more than
2.5 million Palestinians, the absorption of whom could erode Israel`s
Jewish majority.
▪ US presidents from both parties opposed the settlements until President
Donald Trump broke with that tradition, proposing a Mideast plan in
which Israel would keep all of them. The Trump era witnessed explosive
growth in settlements
▪ "We strongly oppose the expansion of settlements, which is completely
inconsistent with efforts to lower tensions and to ensure calm, and it
damages the prospects for a two-state solution," Price said
▪
➢ Palestinian Military issue:
o Palestinian wanted to be a sovereign state having their own military. However,
Israel wanted a demilitarized Palestinian state.
▪ Palestinian were ready to conditionally (there must be UN peace keeper
on its borders with the Israel) demilitarize.
▪ Israel agreed to this idea.
▪ Trump said that it would be a demilitarized state whose security shall be
looked after by Israel.
➢ Foreign Policy issue:
o In the proposal it was suggested that future Palestinianstate shall not be
allowed to enter into any treaty or agreement without the approval of Israel.
▪ Israel is trying to squeeze Palestine as much as it can so that it do not
pose any treat in the future. They are trying to make a colony out of
Palestine.
▪ Palestinians boycotted it.
▪ We have not used the term two state solution
▪
Trump imposed sanctions upon the Palestinians.

Biden only restored the aid but the rest of the policy is the same as that of Trump.

➢ Will Pakistan recognize Israel?

o
➢ Why Pakistan should not recognize Israel?
 o Recognition will make the Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir absurd.
o Political and personally no head or chief executive can dear to accept. Due to the
diverse and sensitive society.
o No major incentive to Pakistan.
o Status of Pakistan in the Muslim would will wane.
o
o
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Trump’s peace proposal/ deal of the Century

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➢

Abraham Accords

Between UAE and Bahran recognized Israel (bilateral between ). In writing

agreement. Abrahamic religions (judism,christianity, islam). UAE agreed to recognize
Israel & Israel agreed to postpone the annexation of the settlements indefinitely. They
developed their collaboration against terrorism, intelligence sharing, technology, space.
Israel wanted this deal because
o To end its regional isolation. Earlier, it was only recognized by Egypt in and
Jordan in .
o Helped Israel in having threat neutralization from Arabs.
o Israel got allies closer to the Iranian borders to keep a watch on Iran.
o Signing this deal Nathen yahoo would get popularity andwould be able to form
government for the 3rd time.
UAE wanted to sign this deal
o To counter Iranian threat.
o Appeasing US. As UAE was demanding F-35 jets and Israel objected it.(US has
its policy that they could not sell those weapons to the middle East that might
put the strategic edge of Israel in Question)
o Technological advancement. As UAE knows that they cannot live with Oil in the
future.

Why US mediated
 o To contain China by rallying its allies in the Middle East and bar the China’s
access to the region.
o Trump wanted to gain favour through Israeli lobby and win elections in 2021
o To counter Iran.
Impacts of this deal
o Iran stand isolated and more threatened
o Palestinian cause put to the bin
o Possibility of the Increased conflicts in the region. it is likely to make Iran
respond and consequently result in instability
o This was the end of Land for Peace process. Arabs made the Palestinian cause
dead.
o US influence has increased in the region
o Recognition of the UAE lead it to the dominion affect. Other states also follow
suit.

Gaza war

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UAE and Bahrain normalized relations with Israel last year under “Abraham Accords” crafted by
the Trump administration.
➢ British took control of the area known as Palestine after the World War 1.
➢ Home of Arab majority, tensions grew when British was tasked with establishing a
“national home” in Palestine for the Jewish people.
➢ In 1947, they rejected a UN proposal for Palestine to split into separate Jewish and Arab
states.
➢ British rulers left, and in 1948 Jewish leaders declared the creation of the state of Israel.
Many Palestinian objected and a war followed. By the time the fighting ended in 1949,
Israel controlled most of the territory.
➢ Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians fled the region; their descendants live in Gaza,
the West Bank, Jordon, Syria and Lebanon.
➢ Israel claims the whole of Jerusalem as its capital, while the Palestinians claim East
Jerusalem as the capital of a future Palestinian state.
➢ While tensions high, recent threatened evictions of some Palestinian families in East
Jerusalem has caused anger.
➢ Peace talks have been taking place on and off for more than 25 years, but so far have
not solved the conflict.
 ➢ Normalization between the arab states and Israel is, to many, a good business deal and
many view it isolation of Iran and for the Palestinians it is a betrayal. Another reason for
the normalization is that theMBS, being the de facto{de facto (in actual) de gyro
(official)}ruler of Saudi Arabia, wants a smooth ascend to power what having its allies in
the West.
➢ There are 88 UNSC resolutions on Palestine question. A two state solution that ensures
a viable and independent state for Palestine. But in recent years Israel was encouraged
by president Donald Trump’s policies into abandoning the two state solution and sought
instead to impose a one state solution while expanding illegal settlements in violation of
UNSC Resolution 2334 and in defiance of international demands to cease this activity.
➢ In the recent confrontation, the agitation rose against the IDF when they were barring
the under45 years old Palestinians to enter the Aqsa. Leading to the aggression of the
IDF and result in Hamas rockets firing with a heavy and indiscriminate use of weapons
by the Israel over Gaza in the wake of right to defend killing around 250 Palestinians
including 65 infants and children in the 11 days long bombardment.
➢ The OIC did only a rhetoric lip service and the normalization of relation
between Israel and the Arabs states may have emboldened the Israel to act with
impunity.
➢ Worldwide support and protests were held in the support of Palestinians and against
the Israeli violation of the human rights.
➢ France foreign suggest there is a dire need to revive the moribund Middle East peace
processand the solution lies in the TWO- State solution.
What UN & international communitysay?
➢ UN rights office spokesman “We call on Israel to immediately call off all forced evictions”.
➢ “We wish to emphasis that East Jerusalem remains part of the Occupied Palestinian territory, in
which international humanitarian law applies”
➢ Merkel “I think that such a long-running issue (the conflict with the Palestinians) will not
disappear from the agenda, even if there are improved relations with neighboring Arab states,”
➢ Riyadh was committed to the 2002 proposal, which called for the end of Israeli occupation over
all Arab territories taken in the 1967 war and the establishment of an independent Palestinian
state with East Jerusalem as its capital in return for normalisation of ties. “The official and the
latest Saudi position is that we are prepared to normalise relations with Israel as soon as Israel
implements the elements of the Saudi peace initiative presented in 2002.”
“Once Israel implemented the initiative, it would have recognition not only from Saudi Arabia
but also the entire Muslim world all 57 countries of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation.”
“Time does not change right or wrong.”

What is written in Israeli Law?

➢ District Court ruled the homed legally belonged to the Jewish families, citing purchases made
when the whole of historic Palestine, including what is now Israel, was under British rule.
 ➢ Israeli law allows Jews who can prove pre-1948 title to recover their properties. It does not
afford the same right to Palestinians.
➢ Israeli settlers left an illegal outpost in the occupied West Bank on July 3, 2021 in adherence to
an agreement struck with nationalist premier Naftali Bennett.
➢ The defense ministry said it would study the area to assess whether it could, under Israeli law,
be declared state land.
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Recently,Israel tried to move few families out their abode and as a result people started0
protesting in Ramadan at the Al- Aqsa mosque. And on 27th Ramadan a grand protest was
planned so Islareali army barred people from entering in the alaqsa mosque hence agitation
grew and violence broke upon Plestinians . Hamas fired rockets and Israeli reacted
disproportionately.

US- Israel chasm

bennett is at odd with the US on the issues such as

a) the continuation of the construction of settlements

b) a Plestinian state in the territories Israel captured in 1967.
c) reopenig of the US consulate in jerusalem to handle Palestinian affairs, which Trump has sgut
in 2019 after moving the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
Analysis
• Same like the world now deplore the holocaust of the then minority, Israelis, but did
nothing to stop it from happening in the first place, they are not taking any concrete
steps to curb the atrocities to which the Palestinians are subjected. Down the line they
would condemn it but would not be fruitful.
• Until a few years ago, Israeli leaders used to pay lip service to the two-state solution
and were taciturn about Jewish settlements. Now, so confident is the Israeli leadership
about the Gulf sheikhdoms` compliant attitude that itdoesn`t anymore bother about
diplomatic doublespeak.
In August, during his meeting with President Joe Biden in Washington, Israeli Prime
Minister Naftali Bennett made himself clear on two points: one, he would continue to
build more settlements and, two, there was no question of a Palestinian state in the
territories Israel occupied in 1967. To walk the talk, Israel then floated tenders for
building 1,000 new settlements on the West Bank and occupied eastern Jerusalem. This
provoked even the Biden administration into defying America`s powerful Israel lobby
and declaring that the settlement expansion in occupied West Bank harmed peace
prospects between Israelis and Palestinians. No such statement came from what can be
called Israel`s Arab allies.

Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam

 • Egypt and Ethiopia are trying to strike a deal on the
term of the Grand Ethiopia renaissance dam but new
realities on the ground have repeatedly capsized
diplomatic endeavors.
• Both Egypt and Ethiopia are demographic
Juggernauts. Each has w population exceeding 100
million and each is growing at extra ordinary rates.
Ethiopia will eclipse the 200 million benchmark by
2050 while Egypt will reach tah level by 2075. Surely
both nations have to plan ahead and secure the
necessary resources to sustain high levels of Populations.
• The flow of the Nile is remarkabley slow; by comparison the Amazon river flows at a
rate of 65 times greater than the Nile & the Mississippi flows 6 times great. The rapid
filling of the Dam would further reduce the river’s flow which would then affect
agricultural Industrial standings in the downstream nations. It is this anxiety that makes
the Ethiopian project such a controversy.
• It has become a zero sum game. Neither wants to step back and let the other
dictateterms
• Egypt receive a mere 50mm of rain annually.
International Law

• Ethiopia is technically with in its rights to develop and employ its hydropower potential.
There exist no treaty between Ethiopia and Egypt on the share of water resources.

Foreign Actors

• Foreign actors have no appetite for a new battle for power and influence.
• Russia and US would a new confrontation in their already myriad of competitions
• Regional powers; KSA, UAE,Sudan are already preoccupied with reconciling relations
with Israel the last thing they want is more controversy.
• Chinese companies are working on the Ethiopian project.
• France and Italy are playing both sides. France providing military supplies to Egypt also
provides the Ethiopia with Hydroelectric equipment.
Egypt stance

o About 3 per cent of Egypt’s land is habitable. The rest consist of barren deserts.
And newly the entirety of the population reside along the banks of the Nile river.
o Although nile which is not commercially non navigable it forms the heart and
soul of Egypt.
 AL sisi “ Military option is the table and there would be inconceivable instability
in the region if Egypt water supply was affected.”
o Has acquired sophisticated weapons from France, Russia, US to deal with any
threatening circumstances.
o A dam along the blue Nile would jeopardize Egypt’s fresh water supply.
International law comes second.
o Cairo has been negotiating the terms and conditions of the dam. But is lasted
over a decade. Initially, the negotiations were about the construction of the Dam
and then it was about reducing its size and now its about the rate at which the
reservoir is being filled.
o Egypt want to extend the dam filling process uptill 20 years. Meanwhile,
preparing its infrastructure and Industries for the water shortcomings.
o About 99 per cent of the Egypt’s population lives along the Banks of the Nile. So
uts imperative to plan ahead and get things right.
o Has to find ways to deay the filling before its too late.
o Egypt can only rely on its self. It can use its procured military supplies to
sabotage the dams controlling system. As fully destroying the dam will devastate
the Downstream Sudan and Egypt by flooding.
o It signed military collaboration agreements three Nile river riparian states;
Sudan, Uganda & Burundi.
o Can play folly by inciting the oromos ethnic group against government to extract
concessions in the negotiations of the Dam. The policy that the predecessors of
as sisi has played but failed. However, it has got no other options.
o Faces pernicious water crisis right now. Living with an axe hanging over it neck.
o When diplomacy fails, arm conflicts can no longer be avoided.
▪ President Anwar Sadat “the only matter that could take Egypt to war
again is water”

Ethiopia stance
o The mountainous landscape of Ethiopia makes it generate dozens of rivers
include the Blue Nile. Earning it the nick name “the water tower of Africa.
o It population is ethnically diverse. And only about 45% of the population has
access to electricity.
o This dam is expected to provide around 6500 Megawatts of hydropower.
o Millions of citizens would be uplifted form poverty and the government would
be able provide essential services through its remote regions.
o Addis Ababa is prolonging the negotiations to buy time and toimpose new
realities on the ground rather reaching an agreement.
 o Wants to avoid setting a legal precedent. It does not want to commit itself to
mandatory talks in the future. So t wants a deal that is non-binding.
o Wants to get things get rolling by 2023.
o Completed its first filling phase in 2020 with 4.9 billion cubic meters of water.
o Completed a second phase in 2021 with 13.5 billion cubic meters of water.
o Fighting with the hostilities pose by the ethnic groups. Secessionist movements
were targeted to restore the government control. Low level of skirmishes
between the government and the militias.
o Tensions are brewing in the Ethiopia’s Banishan Ghul Gumu’s region.
▪ The region is borders Sudan and has the Blue Nile flowing through it.
▪ The oromos 1/3rd ‘s of the population. The region is being cracked down
by the Government. If they felt sideline they could spell disaster for
Ethiopia. They were the source of the 2018 unrest that ousted the
previous administration.
o Out flux of refugees into Sudan is jangling the nerves.
o

Strife between Morocco and Syria

Algiers has long been at odds with Rabat particularly over the Western Sahara, a former
Spanish colony Morocco sees as an integral part of its territory, but where Algiers has
supported the Polisario independence movement.
Algerian stance

• The Algerian foreign minister notably denounced massive and systematic acts of
espionage by Morocco, a reference to allegations that the kingdoms security services
used Israeli made Pegasus spyware against its officials and citizens, official Algerian
news agency APS reported. Morocco adamantly denies the allegations.
• Algeria cited a series of alleged hostile acts for the cutting of ties
• Gsgsg
• Rsg
• Sgs
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Morocco stance

• Why Morocco recognized Israel?

o Their rivalry took a new twist last year when outgoing US president Donald Trump
recognized Moroccan sovereignty over the territory -in exchange for Morocco
normalizing ties with Israel.

France stance

• France, once the colonial power in both Algeria and Morocco, chose a balanced tone to
offend neither side.
• Algeria and Morocco are two friends and two essential partners of France, the French Foreign
Ministry said.
• afdsf
Russia Ukraine Tension

2008 bucharest conference

2014 crimea annexation

Called as small brother, Ukraine has been annexed by Russia on February 24 2022.
Luhnsk n dunhsk
➢ nato supplying aid 800 6oo $, army, arms. Sanctions
➢ gas supply
➢ convincing allies
➢ Ukraine: sovereign, hitler nazi Russia, urging world to fight, war weapon
➢ Russia: like cube, buffer zone, breach promise of gharbechov , ideology of i. buffer…ii.
Expanistion…iii, theory –heart land theory mickinder
➢ History of Europe wars and related theories
o The eruption of war tests theories about the world order. Francis Fukuyama, the
historian who wrote the famous essay The End of History? in 1989, led everyone, the
people of Europe especially, to believe that humanity was evolving beyond ideology.
Liberal democracy, it was assumed, had created universal respect for democracy, for
territorial sovereignty, the rule of law and so on. The idea that the developed countries
would again stop to wage a territorial war, fought on actual land, seemed quite out of
place. But the days that have passed since the Russians invaded Ukraine have proved
this argument to be an erroneous one.

o Samuel Huntington`s Clash of Civilisations fares much better. In his work, Huntington
saw Ukraine as an enduring problem. In his view, Ukraine was a `cleft` country
representing two distinct portions, the Eastern portion belonging ethnically and
culturally to Russia and the Western portion whose identity fits far better with the
Eastern Europeans.

This war, barring some miraculous intervention, could very likely lead to a
Huntingtonian partitionwhere the eastern half of the country goes to Russia and some
sliver of the western portion is left `independent` and can continue to identify with
Europe.

If you subscribe to this idea, then the war in Ukraine is part of the world dividing on
civilisational lines.

The idea that Putin is only after Ukraine would likely be reassuring to the Western
Europeans. It would mean that unlike Adolf Hitler and the Third Reich, Putin merely has
regional plans. Worried about losing control over his sphere of influence and the
encroachment of NATO states ever closer to his borders, he has set off on a quest to
quell the threat once and for all. It would also mean that once he has regained control
over his sphere of influence, he will order the nuclear-armed Russian army back to its
barracks and all will be well again in Europe.

The present, however, is always haunted by the past. It is only around eight decades ago
that the Europeans made similar calculations about Hitler`s intentions. Sudetenland, a
resource-rich part of then Czechoslovakia, was inhabited by three million German
speakers. Claiming that the Germans living there were being persecuted by the Czech
authorities, Hitler demanded Sudetenland. To appease him, an agreement was signed
by countries other than Czechoslovakia, leading to the region`s annexation by Hitler in
1938.

Hitler was entirely aware that the Allies were desperate to avoid a large conflict as
Putin is about NATO. The infamous Munich Agreement promised just this to Europe,
that Germany could have Sudetenland and war would be averted. Six months of peace
followed, which gave Hitler just enough time to regroup and then take over the rest of
Czechoslovakia. In 1939, he moved on to Poland and then onwards still as the war
 raged on.

It is the unpreparedness of their ancestors that haunts the Europeans today. It is why so
many are wondering if they too, like their ancestors, are waiting too long, not fleeing
when they can.
➢
➢
➢
➢ Washington broke off talks with Moscow in 2014 in response to Russia’s annexation of
Ukraine’s Crimea and its military intervention in support of separatists in eastern Ukraine. Talks
resumed n 2017 but gain little traction and failed to produce an agreement on extending the
NEW START treaty during trump administration.
➢ Tens of thousands of Russian troops called back from Russia- Ukraine Border after the
Vladimir Putin invited Volodymyr Zelensky following the Ukraine Govt. and Pro- Moscow
separatists.
➢ Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu oversaw massive drills in Russian annexed Crimea.
➢ 50 soldiers died in 2020, due to Russian military shelling and 30 has died so far this year.
➢ The West and Ukraine accuse Russia for sending arms and troops across the border but Russia
denies it.
➢ Sergei shoigu has said that Crimea exercises are in response to threatening NATA. And they are
also watching the Defender Europe 2021 exercises.
➢ US is in close ties with the Ukraine to contain the desired geographic expansion of the Russians.
➢ In G7 2021, meeting Joe Biden “we are standing united to address Russia’s challenges to
European security, starting with its aggression in Ukraine,”
➢ US periodically sends warships in the Black Sea in support of Ukraine since Russia has built up its
military presence along Ukraine’s border.
➢ US & Russia agreed to extend the NEW START nuclear control treaty to reduce their nuclear
arsenal.
➢ Putin after the meeting with biden “Americans think that nothing is more important than
themselves”
➢ On 23rd June 2021, HMS (her majesty’s ships) defender of Britain was warned to change its
course before being bombed at 12miles (19kms) off Crimea’s cost.
➢ Sea Breeze 2021 held in Black, hosted by US from 28 June to 8 July, Pak navy participated as an
observer among 32 states.
➢ World Coilation met on 28th June 2021 in Rome co-chaired by Italian F.M Luigi Di Maio and
Antonio blinken. An 83 member bloc to chart up future steps against IS.

Russian is wary that NATO is now sitting at their doorstep. Russia has amassed 100000 troops on its
border with Ukraine. Russia`s massive troop build-up on Ukraine`s borders has forced Washington to
engage diplomatically. building up, with around 100,000 troops, artillery, armour, drones, tens of
thousands of combat-ready troops

The West defends NATO`s `open-door policy` towards potential future members, while Moscow is
demanding a cast-iron guarantee that the alliance will not expand further towards its territory, seeing
the westward tilt of one-time Warsaw Pact or Soviet allies as a threat.

Background

• In the last years of the Soviet Union, the Gorbachev administration was generally a bit too keen
to appease the West on the foreign policy front, but drew the line at NATO`s eastwards
expansion, making it a condition for the reunification of Germany and the dissolution of the
Warsaw Pact. Don`t worry, the leadership in Moscow was told at the highest level by the US,
Germany, Britain and even NATO, it`s never going to happen.
In retrospect, it was a grave mistake not to obtain a written agreement. The verbal assurances
were violated within 10 years.
• An intriguing historical footnote in this context is that Moscow first applied to join NATOin 1954.
The application was peremptorily vetoed by the US and UK, and the USSR went on to establish
the Warsaw Pact the following year.
• 1962 Cuban missile crisis.
• The roots of the crisis lie in the mistakes of February 1990 at the time of the talks on the
reunification of Germany. Russia`s leader at the time, Mikhail Gorbachev, was determined to
end the decades-long Cold War. But the American president, George H.W. Bush, misread this as
a well.
• `US policymakers in 1990 offered the Soviet Union assurances that Nato would not be enlarged.
These included promises that the Soviet Union would not be strategically isolated in post-Cold
War Europe, that NATOwould not exploit Soviet weaknesses, and that Europe`s post-Cold War
security architecture would be increasingly inclusive.
• On Feb 9, 1990, the US secretary of state, James Baker had outlined to Mikhail Gorbachev the
American approach to the situation.
o (d) if united Germany remained in NATO, `there will be no extension of NATO`s
jurisdiction for forces of NATO one inch tothe east`.
o Bush`s successor President Bill Clinton embarked on NATO`s expansion.
• Anyhow, NATO welcomed Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic in 1999, and former Soviet
states Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania alongside Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia in 2004,
the latter under Putin`s watch. Four years later, when NATO declared that Ukraine and Georgia
would join the pact at some point, Putin`s simmering wrath boiled over. At a NATOsummit in
Bucharest in April 2008, he is quoted as having told his US counterpart: `George, you have to
understand that Ukraine is not even a country. Part of its territory is in Eastern Europe and the
greater part was given to us.`
• The dramatic chain of events was triggered by the ouster of pro-Moscow Ukraine president
Viktor Yanukovich, who rejected closer association with the EU, and was forced from office by a
popular uprising backed by the West. American officials and politicians had showed up in
Ukraine to openly express solidarity with anti-Russian demonstrators.
 • Moscow reacted furiously, and weeks later, invaded Ukraine, annexed Crimea and backed pro-
Russia separatists in eastern Ukraine. Putin later accused the US of orchestrating Ukraine`s 2014
`coup`. A ceasefire agreement Minsk I was forged in 2014 to end fighting in Donbas but failed to
stick. It was followed by Minsk II mediated by France and Germany in 2015. This involved
constitutional changes by Ukraine to accord full autonomy and `special status` to the
Russianspeaking regions of Donbas. As Henry Kissinger noted in 2014 `the root of the problem`
lay in `efforts by Ukrainian politicians to impose their will on recalcitrant parts of the country
first by one faction and then by the other` in a nation with a `polyglot composition`. Minsk II was
never fully implemented and marked a lost opportunity. But it remained a touchstone for a
peaceful solution.

Is war in Ukraine NATO’s fault?

• The generous shipments of NATO compatible arms to Ukraine long before the invasion, Western
military advisers` training of Ukrainian, including some neo-Nazi, troops, the location of Nato
offices in Ukraine, the provocative Ukrainian constitutional enshrinement of aspirations to join
Nato/EU, and the brushing aside of the Minsk agreements all underlined the bleak conclusion
that Nato would not halt until it parked itself inside the Kremlin,
• In 2008, the Bucharest sum-mit agreed that Nato membership for Ukraine and Georgia was a
matter of `when, not if`. A US State Department official ex pl a ine d : `Everything is Nato`s area,
potentially.Leaked documents also attest that the State Department knew that Russia
considered incorporating Ukraine or Georgia in Nato as a red line, but Nato proceeded
regardless, and to the severe cost of impetuous Georgia in 2008.

Russia’s stance

• What Russia wanted a written agreement on?

o Ukraine to never join NATO
o NATO arms out of Eastern Europe
o Ban on NATO missile within striking distance.
o Autonomy for eastern Ukrainian region; Luhansk and Donetsk regions.
• Putin`s government has demanded the West to rule out accepting new members like Ukraine,
Georgia or Finland on its eastern flank and has demanded limits on allied deployments in the
former Soviet allies that joined NATO after the Cold War
• The Russian diplomat underlined that Ukraine`s increasingly close ties with NATO allies pose a
major security challenge to Russia.
• Russia has denied that it intends to attack its neighbor but demanded guarantees from the West
that NATOwill not expand to Ukraine or other former Soviet nations or place its troops and
weapons there. It also has urged NATOto roll back the deployments of its troops and weapons
 to Central and Eastern European nations that have joined the alliance after the end of the Cold
War.
• curtailing possible future deployments of offensive missiles in Ukraine and putting limits on
American and NATOmilitary exercises in Eastern Europe
• Russian Defence Ministry said that some of its troops already have arrived in Belarus for the
Allied Resolve 2022 drills. It said the exercise will be held at five firing ranges and other areas in
Belarus and also involve four Belarusian air bases.
• Ryabkov’ deputy Foreign Minister “Moscow has seen the West backtracking on previous
promises.`for us, the matter of priority is achievement of watertight, bulletproof, legally binding
guarantees that Ukraine and other ex-Soviet nations will not join the alliance.”
• The Kremlin urged the US to “stop escalating tensions”

What is Russia doing?

• Russia announced new naval drills that will see it deploy to the Atlantic, Pacific, Arctic and
Mediterranean `more than 140 warships and support vessels, more than 60 aircraft, 1,000
pieces of military equipment, and about 10,000 servicemen`.
• held joint military drills Wednesday with forces of ex-Soviet republic Belarus, which also
neighbours Ukraine.
• pro-Moscow rebels in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, which form Ukraine`s industrial
heartland called the Donbas, announced they had started evacuating civilians to Russia.
• Russia recognized the two separatist regions of Luhansk and Donetsk. Ukraine has either to
accept the loss of a huge chunk of territory, or face an armed conflict against vastly powerful
neighbour.
• Russia has drawn up lists of 40,000 fighters from Syrian army and allied militias to be put on
standby for deployment in Ukraine, a war monitor said on Tuesday.
The Kremlin said last week that volunteers, including from Syria, were welcome to fight
alongside the Russian army in Ukraine.
• Russia has de facto control over the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk republics in the
country`s eastern Donbas region. The head of Ukraine`s Lugansk separatist region said it may
hold a referendum on becoming part of Russia a move immediately slammed by Kyiv.

Russian troops have also been besieging Mariupol as taking the strategic port city would give
Moscow an unbroken control stretching from the Donbas to the Crimea peninsula,

MORIPOOL OCCUPY BY RUSSIA ( april 22)

How is Russia going to tackle sanctions?

• Western sanctions now imposed on Russia aim at crippling its economy. They include limiting its
access to international capital markets and freezing its overseas assets. Russian officials
dismissed the sanctions and recalled that their country has long faced Western restrictions.
Putin has in any case sought to make his economy immune to sanctions by building foreign
exchange reserves (over $630 billion) and taking other measures. He can also inflict economic
 pain on Europe as Russia is the continent`s largest source of oil and natural gas as well as
important raw materials.
• Markets are in turmoil, grain shortages loom while the crude oil price has surpassed $100 a
barrel. This will intensify inflationary pressures and involve economic pain for the West as for
much of the world.,
• Russia threatened to stonewall Iran JCPOA over sanctions
o Lavrov said the nuclear talks have covered most issues and `from our point of view, if
Iran agrees, this document can already be launched into the acceptance process`.
said: `This meant Moscow had to ask the US for guarantees first, requiring a `clear
answer` that the new sanctions will not affect its rights under the nuclear deal`.
`We requested that our US colleagues give us written guarantees at the minimum level
of Secretary of State that the current (sanctions) process launched by the US will not in
any way harm our right to free, fully-fledged trade and economic and investment
cooperation and military technical cooperation with Iran,`
•

Ukraine stance

• Russia instigating the separatist in the east of Ukraine.

• a limited campaign in the pro-Russian Donbas region of Ukraine
• Russia has sent an unspecified number of troops from the country`s far east to its ally Belarus,
which shares a border with Ukraine, for major war games next month. Ukrainian officials have
said that Moscow could use Belarusian territory to launch a potential multipronged invasion.
• Ukraine`s Kuleba said Germany`s ambiguous stance does not match `the current security
situation`, and urged Berlin to `stop undermining unity` among Kiev`s allies.
• Turkey backed rebels in northern Syria are also gearing up to send
fighters on the opposing side.
A reporter in northern Syria said the factions preparing for Ukraine.
NATO& the west stance

• Luxembourg`s foreign minister, Jean Asselborn, “If there is a military escalation, then all doors
will be slammed shut for another 20 years.”
• “There should not be negotiation under pressure.”
• The NATO members said Moscow would have no veto on Ukraine or any other country joining
the alliance, warning it would pay a high price if it invaded.
• EU skeptical of Russian cyber attacks on Ukraine and a possible false fag operation.
• EU still divided in themselves. Sum asking for diplomacy and some for a harsh rebuke.
• Germany :-
comes under fire for ‘fence sitting’ over Ukraine.
o it has struggled to overcome internal divisions and craft a unified response on how to
deal with an emboldened Moscow.
o Germany is traditionally reluctant to get involved in military conflict, traumatised by its
past as an instigator of two World Wars, and Scholz`s government claims arming
Ukraine would only inflame tensions.
 o Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which has split the new cabinet in Berlin.
The completed pipeline, currently awaiting German regulatory approval, is set to double
Russian gas supplies to Germany.
•

What is Europe Doing?

• Holding conferences and gathering to warn Russian of a costly economic sanctions.

o Germany has warned Russia of dumping the NORD STREAM-2 gas pipeline supply gas
from Russia to Germany. To use the pipeline as a weapon and that when it comes to
sanctions.
• It has just been completed but not commissioned yet.
o The previous Merkel-led government always insisted the pipeline was a purely
commercial project irritating allies who fear the pipeline will give Russia too much
leverage over European energy.
• The United States, Britain and Baltic states have already agreed to send weapons, including
anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles. Urging German to do the same.

US’ stance

• Last month, the White House approved $200 million in additional defensive security aid to
Ukraine.
• 800$ million aid by US in april 22
• `if Russia chooses the path of further aggression against Ukraine,? the United States and its
allies `will impose crippling costs on Russia`s economy, reinforce NATO`s presence in frontline
Allied states, and increasedefensive assistance to Ukraine above and beyond what we are
already providing.
• The Biden administration hopes to persuade New Delhi to support its position on Ukraine, but
India seems reluctant to do so.
• Washington has rejected Moscow`s demands as `nonstarters` and NATOchief Jens Stoltenberg
this week insisted that the alliance `will not compromise on core principles such as the right for
each nation to choose its own path`.
• “As long as (President Vladimir Putin) is acting aggressively, we are going to make sure we
reassure our Nato allies in eastern Europe that we`re there,” President Joe Biden said

What is US doing?
• The US secretary of the state Antoni Blinkin is on the tour of Europe to rally his allies in
the Europe.
• New measures would include restrictions on exports of high-tech US equipment in the artificial
intelligence, quantum computing and aerospace sectors, the US official said.

`What we`re talking about are sophisticated technologies that we design and produce` and
cutting themoff wouldhitPresidentVladimir Putin`s `strategic ambitions to industrialise his
economy quite hard,
 • it was putting 8,500 US troops on alert for possible deployment to bolster NATO forces in
Europe,
• The US, which during Trump years had alienated Europe, has used the Ukraine crisis to make
Europe dependent on its security umbrella vis-à-vis Russia. The US might also now pressurise
European countries to limit their cooperation with China. The downside is that any US
aggressive actions against Chinese interests in Europe could push China and Russia even closer
and form a strong bloc against the US-led West
• Biden termed the Indian stance shaky.
•

CHINA’s stance

• Biden has been anxious to avoid a new `Cold War` with China, seeking instead to define the
relationship as one of competitive coexistence, but China`s `no-limits` strategic partnership with
Russia announced last month and its stance on Ukraine has called that into question.
• Targeting Beijing with the sort of extensive economic sanctions imposed on Russia would have
potentially dire consequences for the United States and the world, given that China is the
world`s second-largest economy and the largest exporter.
• Gjghj
•

Analysis

• US led Ukraine up the garden path.

• More than 14,000 people have been killed in nearly eight years of fighting there.
• Bloc formation
o Russia-Iran “Cooperation on the crisis in Syria and other international issues.” Putin
noted that shared efforts by Moscow and Tehran have played a key role in helping the
Syrian government overcome the threats posed by international terrorism. Russia and
Iran have joined forces to shore up Syrian President Bashar Assad, helping his
government reclaim most of the country`s territory after a devastating civil war.
• the European Union sources about 40 percent of its supply from Russia. So it would be hard for
Europe to find another suitable source sooner.
• Like so many other countries in its vicinity, Ukraine has a complicated past and ethno-cultural
fault lines but that hardly qualifies it as ripe for Russian re-conquest.
• Is it purely coincidental that both Boris Johnson and Joe Biden are currently desperate for
distractions from their respective domestic woes? Mind you, so too in Putin, albeit less urgently.
• In contrast to the growing entente between Russia and China even though their interests don`t
always converge the Western coalition did not appear united despite vigorous US efforts to rally
Europe into forging a common front against Russia.
o Western analysts suggested that some of the scepticism of European allies could also
be attributed to being ignored by the US in its decision to withdraw from Afghanistan
with the disorderly exit raising questions about American credibility.
o he diplomatic role France has been playing to defuse tensions reflects much of
Europe`s preference to resolve the crisis by diplomatic means and avert conflict.
 o The EU gets almost 40 per cent of its gas imports from Russia. Germany, with over half
its imported gas coming from Russia, was faulted for not taking a tougher line and
balking at sending arms to Ukraine.
• Russia should accept that the USSR is history and its former components are free to chart
their own destinies, without needing permission from Moscow. For its part, NATO too needs to
shed its Cold War mentality and dispel the impression that it is trying to surround Russia from all
sides.
• Russia an Ukraine are not only the major grains and Oil producers but also of other items which
will lead to the price hike in many commodities around the world.
• A firm assessment is difficult in the midst of an ongoing conflict. It appears that Putin`s goalis to
first militarily subdue Ukraine and then bring about regime change. When and if military
coercion achieves this to then negotiate with the West to reconfigure Europe`s security
architecture including NATO deployments in eastern Europe.

This plan seems to rest on Moscow`s calculation that beyond sanctions and bluster the West can
do little as it is unwilling to commit boots on the ground. Ukraine`s president has already said it
has been left alone to fight Russia. With the UN paralysed there is little to deter Putin from the
path he has taken. Whether this gambit works or backfires only time will tell. It may turn out
to be overreach and a strategic mistake if Russia gets bogged down and faces Ukrainian
resistance in the long run as well as anti-war protests at home.
• This war is driving EU countries more into the arms of the USA. US president has offered a major
expansion of natural gas shipment along with the like-minded allies.
• In any case, nothing in Russian conduct so far indicates they want to occupy a resistant Ukraine,
which the US and Nato would like them to try. the Russian strategy is consistent with a scheme
to raise pressure on Ukraine and hammer out an acceptable deal,
• The Cuban missile crisis of 1962 is cited as a precedent America had reacted strongly to the
Soviet decision to deploy missiles in Cuba, just 145 kilometres off the US coast. Still, Russian
concerns were not considered earnestly, and gradually the ambit of Nato inched closer towards
Russia`s borders.

Where does Pakistan stand?

• Defence cooperation between Pakistan and Ukraine, particularly in the field of defence
production, has been growing as several projects are under way on the basis of transfer of
technology and joint ventures between both sides.
In 2020, Ukraine won the contract for repair of IL-78 air-refueller. Meanwhile, Ukrainian-built T-
80UD tanks are crucial part of Pakistan`s armoured corps.
Ukraine has, moreover, emerged as a major market for wheat import for Pakistan. In 2020-21,
Pakistan imported nearly 1.2 million tonnes of wheat from Ukraine.
Any escalation in the Ukraine-Russia crisis can, therefore, also impact Pakistan`s food security.
• PM’s visit to Russia and agreements in different sectors signed including the energy
sector and laying ofNorth-South Gas Project.
o Also Russia, in a joint venture, is laying thePak-Stream gas pipelinefrom
Karachi to Kasur rus 26/ pak 74 % equity .
o
• the government not to condone the Russian military intervention in Ukraine, while others called
upon Islamabad to take a leaf out of Beijing`s playbook and condemn `both sides` in equal
measure.
It was important for Pakistan to look into the position that China had taken about the Ukraine
invasion. Beijing had condemned the US but at the same time, it had called for respecting the
sovereignty of Kyiv.
• FO spokesperson Asim Iftikhar, while defending the government`s position on the Russia-
Ukraine war, said it was `driven by the imperative of protecting the country`s vital interests.”
o He explained that the decision taken by the government in Ukraine`s case was because
of its policy about not becoming part of bloc politics. `We have underlined that Pakistan
will only be a partner in peace, not in conflict,``
•
• Pakistan has been emphasising on resolving the dispute through dialogue and diplomacy. It,
moreover, abstained during voting in the United Nations General Assembly on a resolution
calling on Russia to end the war.
• Western countries have been uneasy with Pakistan`s neutral stance because they believe that
there has been no clear denunciation of the Russian aggression against Ukraine from Islamabad.
• The adverse economic impact of the conflict on developing countries as manifested in rising
prices of oil and other commodities.
• Islamabad has strong defence ties with Kyiv and the two were undertaking several projects on
the basis of transfer of technology.
In 2020, Ukraine won the tender for repair of IL-78 air-refueller in PAF fleet. Meanwhile,
Ukrainianbuilt T-80UD tanks are crucial part of Pakistan`s armoured corps.
• Ukraine was, moreover, a major market for import of wheat for Pakistan. In 2020-21, Pakistan
imported nearly 1.2 million tonnes of wheat from Ukraine. It is feared that prolonged conflict
between Russia and Ukraine could threaten Pakistan`s food security.
• Looking at the principles of interstate conduct, the facts on the ground affirm that Russia had
invaded a sovereign country.Such aggression could not be condoned as this was a violation of
international law.Therefore, for many the position that Pakistan had taken fell short of the
principled position that Pakistan previously adopted in the crises in Iraq, Syria, Libya and Yemen.
Pakistan always stood for respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of fellow nation
states. the army chief at the Islamabad Security Dialogue that “aggression against a smaller
country cannot be condoned”
•
 Pakistan’s Relations with EU
➢ The European Parliament adopted a resolution calling European Commission &
European External Action Service (EEAS) a review of trade relation with Pakistan and
ending its eligibility for the General Scheme of Preferences (GSP) status, which was
granted to Pakistan in 2014. After the blasphemy riots that took place in Pakistan.
Injustice to minorities, rampant intolerance in the country, miss-use of the blasphemy
laws, and insecurity to the French authorities in Pakistan.
➢ EU’s GSP allows products to come into the EU market, with zero tariffs, from vulnerable
developing countries, who implement 27 conventions related to human rights,labour
rights, protection of the environment and good governance. Pakistan, which has ratified
all 27 conventions, has been benefiting from the GSP+ status since January 2014. Its
GSP+ status was extended for another two years in March 2020.
➢ Five new conventions have been added
➢ As a result of GSP, more than 78% of Pakistan’s exports enter EU at preferential rates.
Around 80% of textiles & clothing articles imported to the EU from Pakistan enter at
preferential tariff rate. Pakistan’s exports to EU were about 5.5 billion euros in 2020,
which accounted for 28 per cent of the country’s total exports.
 ➢ EU accounts for about 14pc of Pakistan`s total trade volume and around 31pc of Pakistan`s total
exports.
➢ The government’s move on the TLP’s demand to initiate a debate in parliament on the
question of expelling the France ambassador to Pakistan has create a real concern in
Western Capitals. France is an effective member of the FATF and along with its allies; it
could make Pakistan’s position weak. Recently, the UK placed Pakistan on its list of
High-risk countries for money laundering and terror financing because of the TLP an
UK’s solidarity with France.
➢ The remittance inflows from EU countries remained strong like previous year. The
remittances reached $2.709bn during FY21 compared to $1.778bn in the previous fiscal.
➢ India has applied for an exclusive trademark that would grant it sole ownership of the
basmati title in the European Union, setting off a dispute that could deal a major blow
to Pakistan`s position in a vital export market.
“ Indiaisthelargestriceexporter in the world, netting $6.8bn in annual earnings, with
Pakistan in fourth position at $2.2bn, according to the United Nations.”
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Pakistan-Saudi Relations
Pakistan’s Foreign policy: Pakistan shall have brotherly relation with the Muslim states
(brothers even if become foes remains brothers, once a brother will remain a brother, because
of Muslim nationalism) and friendly & peaceful relations with others (friend can become foes.
Today’s friend can be tomorrow’s foes).
Saudi is called special brother of Pakistan. Musharraf “Saudi and Pakistan are the twin pillars of
the Muslim world” Saudi as spiritual and economic pillar, and Pakistan as security pillar.
History
Pak- Saudi has long-standing and historic fraternal relations, rooted deep in common faith,
shared history and mutual support.
Pakistan relationship is decades old and has weathered a number of geopolitical storms. Of late, ties
came under stress over Yemen, Iran, and the Kashmir question yet these disagreements have been
handled through diplomatic channels without major damage to bilateral relations.

1947-1971
▪ Had good relations but no significant strategic partnership.
▪ Support on issues like Kashmir. Arab stance in arab Israel conflict.
▪ In 1969, north Yemen went in war with Saudi. Pakistan sent forces to protect Saudi
Arabia.
1972-todate
 ▪ Significant improvement in relations
▪ Zulfiqar ali butto started turning to arab states trough Islamic socialism
▪ Due to oil crisis of 1973 price hiked multiple times and arabs got richer. Pakistan started
exporting the unskilled labour force, developing a close economic interactions, currently
around 2.7 million.
▪ During 1980s Pak- Saudi security cooperation enhanced due to afghan war.
▪ Saudi supplied free oil after sanctions were imposed on Pakistan in 1998 also provided
oil on deferred payments.
▪ Pakistan and Saudi recognized Taliban govt. but they later cancelled all the diplomatic
relations with Taliban because of the Hubar tower attack in Saudi (recognition cannot
be taken back once granted)
▪ 1991 iraq war and during Makkah siege Pak sent forces.
▪ After 9/11, both states became part of the US in the war of terrorism.
▪ In 2015, Pakistani parliament declined the military from participating in the war in
Yemen.
▪ In the year 2020, Pakistan had expected Sadia to support it in dealing with India over the
Kashmir crisis.in particular,Pakistan sought a supportive meeting with the council of
Foreign ministers of the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) 57 states, jeddha,
Arabic , English , french, Yousef al othaimeen. which was turned down by Riyadh. After
Pakistan repeated its demand, Riyadh called for repayment of $1 billion loan, which
Pakistan repaid by obtaining loan from China.
▪ Formation of ‘ Saudi- Pakistan Supreme Coordination Council’in may 2021, to have
close coordination between two states.
▪ Five Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) were inked on 7th may, 2021, in the fields
of Economic cooperation, strategic partnership, trade, investment, energy, environment
and media partnership.
▪ Signed a mutual Prisoner Transfer Agreement for the return of 2107 Pakistani inmates.
KSA has previously released 579 Pakistani Prisoners.
▪ The recent détente of relation between Saudi and Qatar will not harbor contempt in
the minds of Saudi for Pakistan for importing LNG or having cordial relation with Qatar.
▪ Similarly the thaw in the relation with Iran would make Pakistan less culpable for having
relations with Iran as did by Saudi before. This would also put a halt to the sectarian
extremism in the region
▪

Economic Collaboration
▪ Bilateral trade (Saudi is the second largest source of Oil imports of Pakistan. UAE is the
first.) 3.5 billion dollars trade. Having $ 3 billion as our imports
 ▪ Saudi provides oil on deferred payments. In 2018, signed an agreement of $ 3 billion
deferred oil facility after a year it was cancelled. Now renegotiating.
▪ Saudi provided $9 billion loans including the deferred payments. To bridge the
simmering current account deficit.
▪ Saudi is major donner to Pakistan. Aid comes through two channels, formal (state to
state) and informal (charities).
▪ Saudi hold largest number of Pakistani expatiates, around 2.7 million.
▪ Saudi is the largest source of remittances, The highest inflows of $7.667bnin FY21were from
Saudi Arabia compared to $6.61bn in 2019-20, an increase of 16pc compared to 32.2pc growth
in the preceding fiscal year. SaudiArabia alone contributed 26.1pc to the total remittances in
FY21. The second highest remittances came from the United Arab Emirates (UAE)in FY21.
▪ The authorities have not been able to operationalise a $1.2 billion Saudi oil facility (SOF), owing
to legalandproceduraldelays.
The Saudi government had agreed to provide a $4.2bn economic support to Pakistan in June
2021 and then formally signed an agreement in November. The economic package included
$3bn foreign exchange deposit in Pakistan`s account and $1.2bn in oil supplies at the rate of
$100 million per month at an interest rate of 3.8 per cent higher than the previous rate of 3.2pc.
The interest rate on SOF is almost 1pc higher than that of 2.8pc by International Islamic Trade
Finance Corporation, a subsidiary of the Islamic Development Bank, which is providing $4.5bn
worth of three-year trade finance for oil, gas and fertiliser imports at the rate of $1.5bn per
annum.

Security Collaborations

▪ Saudi is the only state where Pakistan has deployed its forces and whose security is
guaranteed by Pakistan, around 1400 soldiers live in Saudi, many of them are for
training purposes.
▪ Both states train each other’s armed forces. The most important is training of Saudi
pilots by Pakistan.
▪ Saudi largest buyer of light weapons.
▪ Saudi investment in Pakistan’s defence ministries.
We both have leverage on each other but heir leverage is stronger than ours. In terms of their
influence on OPEC and the Pakistani expatiates working there.

Political Collaborations
▪ Saudi provide support to Pakistan on its Kashmir stance. Not as much as Pakistan wants.
▪ Pakistan backs Saudi stance on Yemen. They call Houthis terrorist and we follow suit.
▪ We both support peace process in Afghanistan.
▪ We have same policy on Palestine. Restoration of pre 1967 wars boundaries.
Religious & Cultural Collaborations
▪ Both are Muslim states.
 ▪ Pilgrimage.
▪ Major influence of Arabic language on our life.
▪ Sectarian similarity
▪ Pakistani public opinion is very favorable towards Saudi Arabia.
Points of conflicts ordifferences
▪ On the issue of Yemen. Pakistan’s refusal to send forces in Yemen resulting in a rift
between two allies.
▪ Although Saudi support Pakistan’s, position on Kashmir but not up to the expectations,
Pakistan’s demand to call an emergency meeting of OIC and the deferred payments deal
ended.
▪ Growing India-Saudi partnership, which is a cause of concern. Saudi inviting India in OIC
sessions.
▪ Pakistan back Iran’s position on its nuclear programme and it also back JCPOA. While
Saudi Arabia oppose both of them (because the deal do not include proxy support etc.)
▪ Sectarianism: concerns about Saudi funding charities involved in sectarian hatred in
Pakistan.

To conclude, Pak- Saud are undoubtedly the most power Muslim states sharing not only a religious bond
but also has deepened security and economic collaboration. However, like any other relation, Pak- Saudi
face certain challenges.
 Pakistan-Iran Relations
Ibrahim Raisi won in the election held on June 18th 2021.

Pakistan – Iran relations are the mirror image of the Pak-Saudi relations.

History
1947-1971
▪ Pak-Iran enjoyed significant& deep strategic partnership.
▪ Iran was the first country to recognize Pakistan and open embassy in Pakistan and its
head of the state was the first to visit Pakistan.
▪ We both were the allies of US in the cold war.
▪ Cultural link, Persian as court language before partition and Persian as compulsory
language in Pakistan till 1971.
▪ Joined CENTO in 1955, one of the major multi-lateral defence agreement. Pakistan,
Iran, turkey & Iraq.
▪ Pakistan signed an economic cooperation agreement known as regional cooperation
development(RCD) with the same states.
▪ In 1965 war, Iran provided with economic support and also provided basis to Pak Air
force.

1970-todate
Since 1970s Pakistan- Iran partnership is not as close as it used to be before.
▪ With the zulfqar ali butto assuming power Pak moved to Non Allience Movement
(NAM). As we moved away from US, we moved away from US allies in the region.
▪ Growing strategic difference between both states
o It was Afghanistan where Pakistan’s support to the Pashtun was opposed to the
Iranian links with the Hazaras in Afghanistan.
o 1980s pak’s support to mujahidin created more rift.
▪ In 1974, Pak carried military operation against Baloch rebels with the help of Iranian
forces.
▪ In 1980-88, Iran- Iraq war, Pak supported Iran.
▪ In 1990s, our relations were not good due to;
o Rise of Taliban in Afghanistan
o Pakistan recognition of Taliban
o Rising sectarian violence in Pakistan resulting even the killing of Iranians in
Pakistan Iranian cadets were killed in pindi & senior diplomats in Lahore &
Multan.
 ▪ In 1995, some collaboration regarding Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline and in 1999 India was
added. IPI.
▪ In 1998, they support Pakistan’s nuclear programme.
▪ After 9/11 our relationship improved because of Pakistan’s change policy on
Afghanistan.
▪
Economic Collaboration
▪ 2007, pak-iran traded for more than $1 billion and we started negotiating a free trade
agreement. However due to sanctions on iran our trade was significantly curtailed so
last year $ 0.8 million trade was recorded. And most of the trade is informal. (Iran is
planning to transfer the money through cryptocurrencies as a mean to circumvent
sanctions and ease their effect on the economy. Iran was among the first countries in
the world to legalise the mining of bitcoins and other cryptocurrencie in September
2018. It is reported that around 700 bitcoins are traded daily in iran)
▪ RCD, Iran- Pak -Turkey
Security Collaboration

▪ Only collaboration is Joint Commission for border management. To bar the cross
border terrorist movement.
Political Collaboration
▪ Iran is one of the vocal supporters of the Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir issue.
▪ Pak support Iran nuclear programme and also back the JCPOA.
▪ Same stance on Israel
▪ Same stance on Afghanistan peace.
Cultural Collaboration

▪ Pak- Iran historical, linguistic and religious heritage.

▪ Culture
▪ Sectarian link 20% Shiite population.
Diversion

▪ Cross border militancy, both accuse each other to stop cross border terrorist.
▪ Growing Indian influence in Iran, especially in chabahar is a major concern to security of
Pakistan.
▪ Greater Saudi Arabian influence in Pakistan. Iran often accuses Pakistan for
collaborating too close with the Saudi Arabians. IMCTC. Islamic Military Counter
terrorism Collation. Which is considered to be anti-Iranian and Ex-army chief of Pakistan
is leading it.
Iran thinks that it has a sectarian leverage over Pakistan. As a significant population look up to
Iran clergy for spiritual guidance so, it can manipulate that in their favor.
Iran thinks that its geographical proximity gives them a leverage. If it increase the Indian
influence in chabahar. So peace in Iran is linked with Pakistan and vice versa. So Pakistan have a
geographic leverage over Iran.

Pakistan’s role as a mediator

➢ Pakistan must keep up its diplomatic efforts to maintain cordial ties will all states, specifically
within the Muslim bloc, as well as the region. While Saudi Arabia is a traditional partner, Iran is
a neighbour and shares cultural and historical links with Pakistan.

Therefore, Pakistan must work to build bridges between Riyadh and Tehran to the best of its
ability.
➢ Why Pakistan wants to become a mediator.
o Constitutionally & Ideological Pakistan is supposed to play the role a brotherly state. So
an y conflict between two major Muslim states binds Pakistan to act as mediator.
o Pakistan has no choice but to act as mediator due to its geostrategic interests.
▪ Pak wants to maintain good partnership with both states and wants to have a
de-hyphenated approach. However, this de-hyphenation is problematic
because of their mutual rivalry. In case of fight break Pakistan would not be able
to side any of these as siding with one or coaxed to side with on e will have
negative results for Pakistan
▪ Both have leverage over Pakistan so, Iran can increase the Indian presence &
Baloch insurgency & flaming its sectarian influence against Pakistan. Saudi can
cut of the economic support Vis a Vis deporting our expatiates & majority sunni
population will also protest in favour of Saudi.
▪ It gets difficult to maintain the de- hyphenated approach in case if the war break
down.
➢ Conflicts between Saudi & Iran
o Sectarianism
▪ Iran is the officially the first shiat state. And their leadership have aims for the
proliferation of the shiit sect. turning states into shiit states. Bring herbulah in
Yemen. Bringing Houthis in Yemen, supporting behrainian shia majority to over
through the sunni govt. supporting the shiat Syrian govt. they want the same
theocratic govt. in the entire Arab world. That’s why it supported the Arab
spring.
• The UN estimates Yemen`s war will have claimed 377,000 lives by the
end of the year through both direct and indirect impacts.
More than 80 per cent of Yemen`s population of about 30 million
requires humanitarian assistance in what the UN says is world`s worst
humanitarian crisis
 • The Houthis come from the minority Zaidi Shia sect of Islam and have
their traditional stronghold in the mountainous north of Yemen.
Between 2004 and 2010, they fought six wars against Yemen`s then-
government and battled Saudi Arabia in 2009-2010 after storming over
the border.Since January 2018, he said, the Houthis have launched 430
ballistic missiles and 850 drones towards Saudi Arabia. Earlier Sunday
the coalition said it had struck a Houthi rebel camp in Sanaa, destroying
weapons warehouses.
o Supports for different Alliances
▪ Both are part of opposing alliances. Saudi is the closest ally of west but Iran has
opposing view of western nations.
▪ Saudi has soft corner for Israel but Iran is hard liner regarding Israel.
o Economic
▪ Both are major oil producers and competitors. As long as there are sanctions on
Iran, Saudi economy will thrive.
o Vying for leadership of the Muslim Ummah
▪ Both want regional hegemony in the Middle East, which is reflected in their
involvement on regional issues, Syria, Libya Afghanistan. They want to play a
role. And both want to take leadership role of the Muslim world, recent
example of the OIC conference in Kuala lumpur summit was cancelled by Saudi
because they want to tackle the islamophobia or other issues in their
leadership.
o Nuclear
▪ Iran’s nuclear programme is a major concern to Saudi. One of the reasons the
Trump withdrew from the JCPOA was Saudi’s concerns. Saudi believe the Iran is
doing nothing to curb its missile programme and the proxy war.
o Historical & cultural
▪ Civilizational Rivalry is as ancient as the advent of Islam. AJAM word was used
for Persians. Arabs considered themselves civilized and vice versa. That why
Prophet had to say that there is preference, because Arab considered
themselves superior to ajamis.
➢ Can Pakistan resolve these Conflicts
o We cannot change these deep-rooted conflicts.
o So, Pakistan adopted conflict management instead of conflict resolution.
o Because their issues are too complex. So Pakistan donot wan the conflict to escalate to
the flash point. This way Pakistan can adopt de-hyphenated approach.
o In 2016, In Saudi shia Protests started and sheikh nimr al nimr and 40 others were
executed by Saudi. Iran tried to burn Saudi embassy. Iranians were not allowed to
perform Hajj. So Pakistan managed the conflict.
o In 2019, the Saudi oil instillation were bombed, Saudi and American blamed Iranian for
this drone strikes. Iran denied that. There was a fear that Saudi might launch a counter
attack on Iran. On another occasion, 4 Saudi oil ships were attacked in Strait of Hurmuz.
And Iran also destroyed a US drone. So Pakistan again mediated between them.
 o In the presence of the US sanctions Pakistan might not be able to play the role of the
transit state between the China _ Iran Oil Pipeline etc.
o The point behind the re-entrance in to the JCPOA is the US want to eliminate the China’s
influence in Iran. And it is beneficial for Pakistan because there would be peace in the
region with no major risks.
o Pakistan role as mediator is dimensioning as the Western allies of the Saudi have
jumped to the field. Further more MBS wants to develop a non-oil based economy for
with he needs investment from the west. The two major initiatives are, developing the
mega city of Neom at the north west of Saudi and tracks for regional peace. So as US is
negotiating with Iran , Saudi is also normalizing ties with iran to appease west.

Talks between Saudi led coalition and the Houthis, lifting the blockade on Houthi held ports and
Sanaa airport in return of cease fire and attacks on Saudi Arabia, is seen as Biden’s foreign
policy win and ease tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Pakistan-Turkey Relations
➢ Tukey and Greece issues on
o Northern Cyprus
▪ Turkey consider northern Cyprus as an independent state it has stationed
forces over there to defend it.
o Eastern Mediterranean
▪ Sea boundaries dispute. As it is rich in shale oil. So both states have
dispute over it.
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Pakistan-Afghan Relations
➢ National security advisor Dr. Moeed Yousuf after the 23rd june Lahore Blast and a
Pakistan born Afghani involvement in the attack “we have been repeatedly saying that
Afghan refugees are our brothers and sisters but time has come for their dignified
return”
➢ According to a report of UNHCR there are around 800,000 afghan refugees in iran. But
they are all living in the refugee villages set up by Tehran along the border areas with
Afghanistan. Pakistan is planning to follow suit as it is under the International
compulsion to let in the refugees in case of a civil war in Afghanistan. But the Pak
authorities says this time these refugees won’t sneak into other parts of the country.
➢ There are around 3 million afghan nationals living in Pakistan, out of which 1.4 million
are holders of the proof of registration card (PRC), followed by about 850,000 who
 have afghan citizen cards while up to half a million were unregistered persons living in
remote areas, doing menial jobs.

China-US Relations (Sino-American confrontation)

“LET China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world”. This remark attributed to Napoleon
Bonaparte has been turned into a reality by the Chinese Communist Party that celebrated the 100th
anniversary of its foundation this month.

• Century of humiliation
• 1949 communist revolution (doctrinal socialism) socialist revolution led by Mao Zedong that
destroyed the old economic, political and social order and established a socialist system. That
emancipated the population, thus laying the foundation of modern China.
• Realism; weak gets battered and strong rules.
• Capitalism; free market exists. The price sets spontaneously on the basis of supply and demand.
Communism; state oriented. State designate different people to different tasks.
• 1979- Deng Xiaoping, reform and opening policy turn the Chinese to capitalism. Deng Xiaoping`s
tenet to “hide our capabilities and bide our time, never try to take the lead”.Different
companies shifted there to maximize their profit. This has led to a spike ascendency in the
Chinese economy. Currently the Chinese economy is at 13 trillion and US stands at 20 trillion. Its
projected that it will cross the US economy in 2030. Thus, strong economy will lead to stronger
military. US sees china as threat to its hegemony over the globe that’s why its using different
ploys for example, human rights and economic norms violation ostensibly to contain china.
▪ The Global Innovation index 2021, from the united Nation’s world Intellectual
property Organization showed surging performance by China. It has marked
itself 12th.
• In case of middle class trap, china is moving towards high-end services. Like ship technology etc.
• 1971 US china rapprochement,HenryKissinger visited china via Pakistan. US realized the breach
between USSR and China to exploit it Nixon visited China (Opearation Marco Polo on july 8-9,
1971) to wean it from USSR as a result China was granted with a permanent seat in the UN.
Issues between US & China
• South China Sea. China claims it on the basis of historical 9 dashed line. But the regional states
are not willing to accept this claim. US wants to maintain the status quo and wants to retain the
world order. Hence forth it want to protect the regional states as well as the freedom of
navigation in these international water. China does not like their policing in the region.
o US Navy ships routinely sail close to Chinese-occupied islands in the South China Sea to
challenge Chinese sovereignty claims, as well as through the Taiwan Strait, to Beijing`s
anger.
o China, Using dredging an land reclamations methods, has embarked on running a series
of reefs and atolls in dispute territory in Islands. For example Fiery Cross Reef, has been
turned into an island complete with port and runway Spratly Islands. The runway could
 host fighter jets giving china far more control of the skies over the region than it
currently has.
o Free access to pacific is hindered by Japan. Chinese vessels move through the territorial
waters of Japan, which at a time of tension would be inaccessible.
o China is also in dispute withChina over the uninhabited island chain Japanese call it
Senkaku an Chinese know as Diaoyu.

Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin “no basis in international law” taking aim at China’s growing
assertiveness in the hotly contested waters.

• Taiwan. (china regularly describe it as the most sensitive issue in its ties with the United
State)After the communist revolution in China in the year 1949. Then the Nationaist govt had
been ousted. These people flee to Taiwan. UN cancelled the Tiawan’s membership and
awarded China the UN membership. The One China policy states that Taiwan is its part. US has
guaranteed the security of the Taiwan. China claims Taiwan as its twenty-third province, but it is
currently an American ally with a navy and air force armed to teeth by Washington.
o CENTURIES of experience in diplomacy have still not equipped the Western powers with
skill to deal with crises in international affairs. In the last 75 years, the stakes have risen
and the risks mounted with the presence of nuclear weapons. It is easy to create a crisis
but almost impossible to predict how it will end.
President Joe Biden is most ill-advised in raising the stakes in his wager with China by
bringing in the issue of Taiwan. Nearly the entire international community regards
Taiwan as an integral part of the People`s Republic of China (PRC). The Treaty of
Shimonoseki, which ended the war of 1895 between China and Japan, ceded Taiwan
and the Pescadores to Japan `in perpetuity and full sovereignty`. Up until that time,
Taiwan had been Chinese territory. For the next 50 years, Taiwan and its adjacent
islands were administered by Japan.
During World War II, Roosevelt, Churchill and Chiang Kai-shek met in Cairo in 1943 and
declared: `It is their purpose that ... all the territories Japan has stolen from the Chinese,
such as Manchuria, Formosa [Taiwan], and the Pescadores, shall be restored to the
Republic of China.` The terms of the Cairo Declaration were confirmed by the Potsdam
Declaration. The Japanese instrument of surrender undertook `to carry out the
provisions of the Potsdam Declaration`. Japanese forces on Taiwan surrendered to the
Republic of China (ROC), who thereafter administered the island.
From 1945 until 1950, the US considered Taiwan to be a part of China. In January 1950,
president Truman stated: `In keeping with [the Cairo and Potsdam] declarations,
Formosa was surrendered to Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek [of the ROC], and for the
past four years the United States and the other Allied Powers have accepted the
exercise of Chinese authority over the island.
Secretary of state Dean Acheson said at the same time: `The Chinese have administered
Formosa for four years. Neither the United States nor any other ally ever questioned
that authority and that occupation.
When Formosa was made a province of China nobody raised any lawyer`s doubts about
that.` In 1949, the PRC was established.
The situation changed drastically with the outbreak of the Korean war. President
 Truman ordered the Seventh Fleet into the Taiwan Strait in June 1950. He also stated
that `the determination of the future status of Formosa must await the restoration of
security in the Pacific, a peace settlement with Japan, or consideration by the United
Nations`. By the instrument of surrender, Japan renounced all claim to these areas, but
they were not reassigned to China. This position was taken to provide a legal basis
forsending the Seventh Fleet into the Taiwan Strait an area that would be `Chinese
territory` if Taiwan were accepted as part of China.
In 1952, Japan signed a peace treaty with the Allies and `renounced all right, title and
claim to Taiwan and the Pescadores as well as the Spratley Islands and Paracel Islands`.
Once again, Taiwan was not conveyed to China.
For a quarter century, the US held the ROC regime as the de factogovernment of the
island of Taiwan. Its position changed in 1972. In the Shanghai communiqué, the US
stated: `The United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan
Strait maintain there is but `One China` and that the Taiwan is part of China. The United
States government does not challenge that position.
Few communiqués were drafted with such care and after such prolonged negotiations
as the famous Shanghai Communiqué issued after president Nixon`s trip to China in
1972.
Its text had been settled earlier by HenryKissinger and Zhou En-lai. It was based on the
principle that there was `One China`, ergo Taiwan was part of China.Taiwan was
expelled from the UN and China`s seat at the Security Council was taken by the PRC. In
December1971, the PRC stood by its ally Pakistan.
Japan was shocked by the Shanghai Communiqué. This provides a lesson to those who
now court the US or any great power.
Afghanistan`s president Najibullah was shown the door by the Soviet leader Mikhail
Gorbachev in brutal language.
How far will Biden go in using the Taiwan card against China? On its part, China is in no
hurry to forcibly take over Taiwan. It has, however, rejected all proposals to disavow the
use of force against Taiwan it is a domestic matter, not an international one.
But it has done little to persuade, still less tempt Taiwan to voluntarily rejoin China.
Hong Kong`s experience has been an unhappy one. President Xi Jinping will not be
intimidated by Biden`s postures. But uncertainty remains. China`s military power can
reach the US. The best course is for the US itself to reiterate the `One China` formula
and propose Taiwan`s return to China with guarantees of autonomy and respect for its
democratic system.
• It came under Chinese control in the seventeenth century but has only been ruled by China for
five years in the last century (from 1945 to 1949). Taiwan’s official name is Republic of China
(ROC) to differentiate it from the People’s Republic of China. Mainland china does not state that
Taiwan is a separate state. America is committed to defending Taiwan in the event of a Chinese
invasion under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979. The Two government vie for the recognition
for themselves and non-recognition of the other in every single country in the world but only
few are ready to decline the China’s 1.4 billion potential market as compare to the Taiwan’s 23
million. China is using the soft-power approach to persuade the people of Taiwan that they have
nothing to fear in rejoining the “motherland”.
• China flew nuclear capable fighter jets over Taiwan to deter it from joining the (CPTTP,
Comprehensive And Progressive Agreement For Trans-Pacific Partnership, signed by 11 asia-
pacific countries(Ausralia, brunei, Canada,chile,japan,Malaysia, mexico,peru,new Zealand,
Singapore & vietnam) in 2018 and is the region’s biggest free trade pact , accounting for around
13.5% of the global economy).Beijing submitted its application to become a member but those
hoping to join must have the unanimous support of all the pact’s member countries. Chian’s
application comes at a time when Beijing is feuding with a host of western nations, especially
Australia, which it has placed trade restrictions on.
o Taiwan records over 600 fighter jet incursions in 2021.
o Nicaragua inked a deal on Friday switching diplomatic allegiance from Taiwan to China.
Taiwan`s remaining allies in Central America are Belize, Guatemala and Honduras. It has
ties with a handful of other countries including Haiti and Paraguay. Outside of Latin
America and the Caribbean, Taiwan`s remaining diplomatic allies are limited to four
small Pacific island nations, Eswatini in Africa and the Vatican. Totaling 14.

• Hong Kong. Remained under British control. British broker a deal in 1898 that it will take it on a
lease for 99 years. And in 1984 British made a deal that for 50 years hence from 1997 till 2047
Hong Kong will have its own system of governance. That’s why it is called one country two
systems. Main land China has communism while Hong Kong has capitalism & democracy.
o Law of extradition. And protests against other human rights violation.
• Xinjiang. The western world is raisin gthe issue of the Uighur muslim being kept in the
Concentration camps which they believe is the violation of human rights and is the ethnic
cleansing of the Uighur Muslims. China on the other hand believe that they want to fully
integrate their all regions full through educating these people to become an integral part of the
country.
• ETIM (East Turkestan Islamic Movement) is a Muslim separatist movement founded by militant
Uighur and member of the Turkic-speaking ethnic majority in the northwest China’s Xinjiang
province.That group took credit for a series of attacks in several Chinese cities in 2008,
including deadly bus explosions in Shanghai and Kunming. This makes the CPEC vulnerable.
China aims to develop this region, the region west of the HU line(Hu line) is an
imaginary line that divides the area of China into two roughly equal parts with
contrasting population densities, through CPEC.
• Dalai Lama the spiritual and political head to the Tibetan people. China recaptured Tibet in
1960s. US has passed ‘The Tibetan Policy and Support Act’ in 2020. That states the selection of
the Dalai Lama and to be left solely to Tibetan Buddhists t decide without Chinese Government
interference.
• US blames china for copying its technology. This is evident in many war planes the copy the
same design as the US air force fighter planes such as J31 has the same design as America’s F-
35A. j20 n f22 raptor
• Belt and Road Initiative. China`s multibillion-dollar Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) an infrastructure
development project linking the old Silk Road with Europe is a manifestation of China`s growing
geopolitical ambitions. A project that has now been in operation for several years, it covers
more than 68 countries extending across Asia, Africa, Europe, and South America. China wants
to become the global power through world wide connectivity. This will create a strong hold of
 the Chinese around the world making the US’ influence dwindled. To counter this G-7 has
initiated the BBBW (build back better world) project.
• Chinese sprouting economy. Currently standing at 14 trillion as compare to the US’ 20 trillion. It
is projected that it will surpass the US’ economy in the coming years. Which the bone of
contention for the US.
• China’s economic influence in spreading leaps and bounds around the world.
• China is the major trading partner of almost all countries. In spite of staunch enemies, India and
Chinese conducted the trade of around &100billion last years. Same with G7 and other
countries as their official statements are apt examples.
• China’s Asian infrastructural Bank. To replace the IMF and world Bank.
• China has started to show its military might. Currently working on the Blue Navy and Bases in
different harbour. Djibouti and Gawadar etc.
• China seeking the technological advancement. Alibaba and Huawei and the space missions.

What China is doing to materialize these planes

• Increasing economic influence and using its trade with the Quad members as a shield to quell
this alliance. Increasing its leverage. China has become far to integrated into the global economy
to be isolated. Most countries trade more with chian than they trade with US.
• Increasing military might. Its missile umbrella is unchallenged. There are multiple layers to the
china’s defence ruling out any foreign military intervention.
• US hegemonic power has dwindled after the Loss in the Afghan war and the due to the Trump,
exit from the different treaties. It no more carry the shots anymore over the other states nad is
no more taken seriously.
• Myanmar announced the opening of the new trade route linking Yangon`s port on the Indian
Ocean to the Chinese border province of Yunnan and by rail onwards to Chengdu in the
southwestern province of Sichuan.

• What US is doing to contain China

To contain China, tradition measures such as economic sanctions and military interventions will not do.

To contain necessitating a NATO like alliance. A strategy of sea denial. Whereby hostile naval forces are
prevented from gaining control of the sea lines of communication. QUAD’s member states have
territorial assets located at the strategic choke point in south east Asiaform the coast of Philippines to
the coast of Japan plugging the alternative routes in the ocean.And keeping china’s navy in its backyard.

With three of its most prominent member much of the common territory surrounding Quad has focused
on its ability to stifle China’s attempt to achieve Asian hegemony.

• In 2011, Obama’s Pivot Asia policy

o Focus on Asia to counter china. Engage and rally the regional states against China
• In 2017, Trump’s Indo-pacific policy.
 o Washington has long viewed India as a key partner in efforts to blunt increasing Chinese
assertiveness in the region .Support India to tackle china.QUAD(also called Asian NATO)
CAMCASA, BEKA, LEMOA.
o 50,000 american soldiers are stationed in south Korea.
o US military partnership with Japan.
o Mutual defence treaty with Philiphene
o Military support to Taiwan.
• US frequent movement in the south chian sea asserting that it’s an international waters.
• Trade war with China. Introduced increased tariff on Chinese products. And banning Chinese
firms.
• B3W
o Costing $1.75 trillion is not supported by the US senate. The republicans oppose the bill.
As it is considered too expensive and can cause inflation.
• Technological ban; Hawaii banned and stopped providing playstire features to the Chinese
technology.
• What Joe Biden is doing?
o Sanctioned the Chinese officials.
o Rallying G7 against china.
o NATO rejuvenation.
o Has ordered an intelligence review on the Origin of Covid-19 virus. WHO (DG; Tedros
Adhanom Ghebreyesus) primarimly under the US influence is probing into this matter.
Ask China to cooperate and to grant access to Wuhan, from where the first cases
erupted. To prove, if it was a lab leak or it transferred from animals to humans.
▪ China failed to share the information demanded by the WHO regarding its initial
174 cases.
o Kamala Harris met with Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong reiterated US commitment to
“uphold the rules-based international order and freedom of navigation, including in the
South China Sea.”
o `Strategic Competition Act`was recently passedby the US Senate under which
Washington had allocated $300 million for `Countering China Influence Fund` He also
criticised the boycott of Beijing Winter Olympics 2022 by certain western countries,
o The Biden administration is raising red flags about 33 Chinese companies whose
legitimacyitcannot verify,imposing new restrictions on their ability to receive shipments
from US exporters and requiring extra diligence from American companies that want to
do business with them. The Commerce Department`s action puts US exporters on notice
that they will now need a license if they want to ship products to any of the companies
on the list. It alerts the flagged companies that they must certify that they are legitimate
and willing to comply with US regulations to continue receiving shipments. a concern in
China, where products seemingly meant for commercial use wind up diverted for
military purposes.
Most of the companies flagged are electronics businesses, but they also include optics
companies, a turbine blade company, state laboratories at universities and other
businesses.
 o Federal Communications Commission revoked authorisation for Pacific Networks Corp.
Washington has expelled another state-owned Chinese phone carrier from the US
market over national security concerns amid rising tension with Beijing.
• Analysis
o Thucydides trap. An apparent tendency towards war when emerging power threatens
to displace an existing great power.
o China and US show solve their issue in a peaceful manner with falling out with each
other.
o Pakistan’s role; Pakistan should play a balanced role between these two powers. As the
FM has said that it would be a healthy competition if both wantto invest in Pakistan.
o The third Chinese revolution lead by President Xi Jinping “China dream” of making the
country most powerful global economic and military power is likely to alter the existing
world order.
o The Biden administration has frequently reiterated this and also said relations with
China will have three aspects adversarial, competitive and cooperative.
o The book by Kishore Mahbubani titled Has China Won? The Chinese Challenge to
American Primacy.
▪ Does the US have a strategy in its geopolitical competition with China? No,
saysMahbubani and argues that America is committing the `classic strategic
mistake of fighting tomorrow`s war with yesterday`s strategy` as it is treating
the China challenge similar to the old Soviet threat. The US is focusing on
military spending (`geopolitical gifts to China`), displaying rigidity in decision-
making, draining its power by involvement in military conflicts, and misreading
China by erroneously attributing aggressive and expansionist designs to Beijing.
All this because groupthink rules in Washington. He is surprised at this because
America has the world`s `largest strategic thinking industry` He argues
convincingly that while China wants to `rejuvenate its civilisation` it has no
mission to take over the world or recreate it in its image.
▪ Despite its growing power China has not intervened in the affairs of other
countries. The militarism attributed to it is similarly mistaken because it has
never sought to conquer territories as European powers have done and this
despite `often being the single strongest civilisation in the Eurasian landmass`
for over 2,000 years. China avoids military options and has sought to secure its
borders by consolidating relations with neighbouring states.
▪ Even though America has convinced itself that China poses an existential threat
yet there are areas of convergence that should urge them towards cooperation.
His hope is that if both focus on their core national interest improving the well-
being of their citizens they will find no contradictions in their long-term
interests. Many would share that hope as continuing confrontation between
them will have far-reaching global consequences.
o The hardline Islamists` swift return to power a week ago,and desperate scenes of
thousands trying to flee, have cast a shadow over the United States` status as a global
superpower.
 o Beijing has been accused of deploying a range of military hardware including anti-ship
and surface-to-air missiles there, and ignored a 2016 international tribunal decision that
declared its historical claim over most of the waters to be without basis.
Tensions have escalated recently between Beijing and rival claimants.
o China cannot hold for too long as the Taiwan and other states in the region, with help of
West particularly the USA, are getting stronger militarily. It will be difficult for Chinese to
coerce then later on.
o the Western states must realise that China, Russia and other states will not simply
`submit` to their wishes. Beijing, Moscow, Tehran and their allies should also be willing
to accommodate the West`s concerns. If all pursue a zero-sum game, more global
conflict and instability will be the likely outcome one that can and should be avoided.

• Chinese economy is growing and most of the American firms have invested in China to get
maximum profit as china being the biggest market.
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• Afghan Taliban are agreeable, but the Myanmar military is not. There was not a whiff of
democracy in Hong Kong under the British rule; after its 1997 handover to China the terms to
endearment changed.

• The US failure to fulfill its commitments that it had done with the afghans were not fulfilled,
now that they say that they have interests and commitments in bonding with the south Asian
nations the precedence they have set in afghan has put this rhetoric in jeopardy.

• AUKUS (Australia-UK-US alliance) controversy illustrates that even the closest of allies can
become estranged when commercial concerns are at stake. US transfer of technology to
Australia along withlong range Tomahawk cruise missiles and eight nuclear powered sub
marines, which are quitter faster and have longer endurance , which will allow Australia to
deploy its future subs in Indo-Pecific locations for much longer periods of time.

o Though France recalled their foreign ministers form canaberra and Washington. After
the biden –macron meeting and a formal apology from biden the France returned to
normalization as they cannot take the onus of the economic loss that it would have to
face incase of the boycott on the French imports to the US. As was the case in 2003
when France opposed the US invasion of the Iraq. It met with the trade sanctions and
French toast and French Fries renamed as freedom fries in the US. In the history French
had helped US in their war of liberation against British but the American consider that
France had helped in opposition to their archenemy, British, not solely for the American
cause.
 International community’s view on the conflict

• Malaysia and North Korea have said that the AUKUS deal serves as a “catalyst for a nuclear arms
race” in the region.
• Antonio guterres warned that the world could be plunged into a new could War potentially
more dangerous than the lengthy one between the US and the former Soviet Union unless the
United states and China repair their totally dysfunctional relationship.
• M16 chief has term china,Russia nad Iran as destabilizers of the wold peace.

Pakistan’s view on the conflict

• Pakistan would be partner in peace and not war.
• Pakistandid not participate in the democracy summit called by Biden in December 2021.
Pakistan said it will participate some other time in future. As Pakistan supports China’s “One
China Policy” as US had invited Taiwan.
• Pointing that it did not want to become a part of any bloc. Yet Pakistan’s decision to maintain a
neutral posture will be tough as it is highly dependent on the foreign aid.
• Participation in the winter Olympics in Beijing while US had diplomatically boycotted it.

• Delicate balancing act

• BY A I Z A Z A H M A D C H A U D H R Y 2022-02-22
• A QUESTION is often being tossed around in policy discussions across the country: can Pakistan
manage to balance its relations with the US and China? Let us first see why is this question being
asked. The evolving geopolitics, particularly the US-China competition, is increasingly looking
like a new Cold War.
If this competition intensifies further, there are growing concerns that the world might get
divided into two camps, and sooner or later, the small and middle powers, might be called upon
to make a choice to join either of the two camps.
Some analysts argue that Pakistan cannot maintain a balance in the two relationships, and
instead should choose the Chinese camp right away. Their contention is that the US was an
unreliable partner whereas China was a time-tested friend. Further, the US has already chosen
India as its preferred strategic partner in South Asia to counterbalance China, while Pakistan was
being subjected to America`s diplomatic pressures and economic coercion.
There are two assumptions in this line of argument: one that two camps have already been
formed and Pakistan belongs to the Chinese camp. The second assumption is that once Pakistan
is in the Chinese camp, it would be better positioned toface the strategiccoercionofthe US in the
diplomatic, political and economic domains.
Both assumptions, on deeper reflection, do not seem valid. First the world is not likely to get
divided into camps the way it was during the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union.
The US and China are far more dependent on each other than the US and the Soviet Union were.
The US-China bilateral trade, for instance, exceeded $650 billion in 2021.
China holds over $1 trillion in US securities. Many of America`s friends in Europe, the Gulf, and
even in East Asia maintain close economic ties with China and are reluctant to view their
relations with the two superpowers as a zero-sum game. No country wants to give up one
relationship for the other. Interstate relations these days are guided by the mutuality of
interests and issue-based alliances. It is quite possible for any two countries to be allies on one
issue and rivals on the other.
 China is no doubt a reliable friend of Pakistan. It has always respected Pakistan`s sovereignty
and supported us at international forums. China invested billions in our economy when no other
country was willing to do so. However, that does not mean we should expect China to pick up
the consequences of ourmishandling of the economy and politics.
In fact, the messaging from China has been to strive for a peaceful coexistence with India and
friendly relations with the US, so that Pakistan can increase space for its economic development.
In short, China would want us to keep a balance in our relations with China and the US.
Here, the balance does not mean equality or equal distance. It simply means to let every
relationship serve your national interests.
Pakistan has enjoyed sustained periods of close engagement with the US. Right after
independence, when Pakistan faced an existential threat from India, our leadership found it
useful to become an ally of the US to bolster our military capabilities and uplift agriculture and
economy. Ever since, thousands of Pakistani students went to the US for higher education. More
than a million Pakistanis have made the US their home. The US remains the largest destination
of our exports. For decades, the balance of our trade with the UShas been in our favour.
US companies have had a consistent presence in Pakistan.
So, it makes sense for Pakistan to maintain close relations with both, China and the US.
If we were to choose one against the other, there would be huge costs because of our economic
vulnerabilities and fractious polity. Admittedly, the balancing act will be difficult, be it the US-led
Democracy Summit or the Winter Olympics hosted by China. However, as long as Pakistanis
taking decisions based on its national interest, China and the US will both show understanding.
Every country is entitled to pursue its own national interests, and so are we. The UAE and some
other Arab countries chose to establish relations with Israel because they felt it was in their
national interest. Israel is a close ally of the US, but it maintains strong economic ties with China.
India, despite being a US ally, has not lowered its traditionally strong relations with Russia.
Pakistan, must, therefore, maintain good relations with both China and the US, no matter how
delicate this balancing act may appear to be. Not maintaining a balance and creating an enemy
out of one or the other could be costly for Pakistan.

➢ US
o There are three aspects of relation-adversarial, competitive & cooperative.
 ▪ Because US companies see China as an attractive economic opportunity,
continue doing lucrative business there and banks are keen to expand, US
are obliged to acknowledge the cooperative aspect.
o US has deep concerns over china’s actions in Taiwan, Hong Kong & Xinjiang, its
cyber-attacks and economic coercion towards US allies.
▪ “China has fostered an ecosystem of criminal contract hackers who carry out
both state-sponsored activities and cybercrime for their own financial gain”,
Blinken said
o While US continue to stoke tensions by it aggressive stance.
o The only difference from the Trump is the Biden is busy in rounding up the allies
and countries to join it to counter china. Recent G7 meeting to mobalise a joint
front against china for humanitarian rights. Another example is QUAD
o US say sit conducts the Freedom of navigation operations in accordance with
international law and on the international waters.
o China is the serious violator of the Human rights of the Turkic people In Xinjiang
and also to stop pressuring the Taiwan.
o Biden has ordered US intelligence to report back by late August whether Covid-
19, first detected in Wuhan, emerged from an animal source or a laboratory
accident. Former president Donald Trump trotted out the lab-leak theory but,
was widely dismissed, with many believing he was seeking to deflect criticism
over his own handling of the Pandemic. US criticizes China for not giving more
access to a WHO probe.
o US & Europe’s dependency on China for the 17 unique minerals such as,
neodymium & dysprosium which are linked to the clean energy
o G-7 summit in southwest England in January 2021. Rallying the European states
as well as the Baltic states to counter the ballooning threat of China & Russia. To
counter China’s growing influence by offering developing nations an
infrastructure plan, known as Build Back Better for the World (B3W). the $40
trillion needed by developing nations by 2035 that could rival President Xi
Jinping’s multi-trillion-dollars Belt and Road initiative.
▪ There is a touch of irony in the fact that while the US was rolling out
global infrastructure plan the administration had failed to get its
domestic infrastructure legislation approved by congress.
▪ With some exceptions most European allies are skeptical about a
confrontational policy especially as they have key economic equities in
ties with China. Last year China became the EU’s top trading partner
surpassing the US. Germany’s top export market and biggest trading
partner happens to be China, which is why Chancellor Angela Markel
once said that EU and US interests on China are “not identical”. Italy i sa
part of BRI. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson after the NATO Summit
 “When it comes to China, I don’t think anybody wants to descent into a
new cold war.”
o European Commission announced on Wednesday a plan, Global Gateway project, to
mobilise 300 billion euros ($340 billion) in public and private infrastructure investment
around the world, a move seen as a response to China`s Belt and Road strategy
o Rejuvenating NATO( jens stolenberg)countries alliance to speak in more
unified voice about China’s human rights record, forced labor and other human
rights violation of Uighur Muslims and other minorities in the Xinjiang province
and abuses against pro-democratic activist in Hong Kong, its trade practices, and
its military’s increasingly assertive behavior, forming blue navy and faster
developing of nuclear missiles increase of 6.8 % in the previous military budget in
march 2021, that has unnerved US allies in the Pacific. It declared china a global
security challenge.
▪ The article 5 of the alliance charter states spells that “ an attack on one
member is an attack on all and is to be met with collective response”. US
wants update in the Article regarding the addition of the Cyber Attack as
well due to the surge in the cyber-attacks from Russian based hackers,
disrupting the Us government and the local Businesses and the China’s
space and cyber warfare capabilities “present systematic challenges to
the ruled-based international order”.
▪ The then secretary of state Dean Acheson was clear that Article V did not mean
that America would automatically help the victims of aggression. He said: `This
naturallydoes not mean that the United States would automatically be at war if
one or the other signatory nation were the victim of an armed attack. The
obligation of this government under Article V would be to take promptly the
action it deemed necessary to restore and maintain the security of the North
Atlantic area. This means that, America`s pledge where the treaty is concerned
will not appear credible.
o On July 12, 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague ruled that China had
no historic title over the South China Sea, a ruling that Beijing said it would ignore.

The Benfold assertednavigational rights and freedoms in the vicinity of the Paracel
Islands consistent with international law, the US Navy said in a statement.

➢ Why US want to confront.

o The Anti-China mood and Bipartisan consensus in America that sees China as an
adversary whose raising power needs to be balanced.
o Consider it as manipulative economic power that engaged in unfair trade
practices.
o Republicans party constantly attacks Biden for being soft on china
➢ China
 o Carrying the Xi jinping’s vision of “no conflict, no confrontation, mutual respect
and win-win.”
o China’s interest lies in defusing tensions and establishing peaceful relations.
o China believe that many European countries and Asian countries are less willing
to join the contain- china coalition,
o PLA accuses US navy presence in the Taiwan Strait region as a threat to peace.
o China is holding the strategic island in the South China Sea (which it claims
belong to them in its entirety) and having built their bases.
o China says that US is meddling with their internal affairs on Uighur rights issue
and on Taiwan issue.
o Yang jiechi, the Chinese communist party’s chief diplomat urging the US to
“resolve its own grave human rights violations and not use so-called human
rights issue as a pretext to arbitrarily interfere in the internal affairs of other
countries”.
o The laboratory theory has outraged and infuriated China.
o Chinese embassy to UK says G-7 is deliberately slandered China and arbitrarily
interfering in China’s internal affairs.
o Called for NATO to “view China’s development rationally, stop exaggerating
various forms of ‘China Threat Theory’ and not to use China’s legitimate interests
and legal rights as excuses for manipulating group politics while artificially
creating confrontations”.
o “the days when global decisions were dictated by a small group of countries are
gone”
o TheUSS Benfoldentered the waters without China`s approval, seriously violating its
sovereignty and undermining the stability of the South China Sea,
o “It is well known that the US has engaged in unscrupulous, massive and indiscriminate
eavesdropping on many countries including its allies,” the embassy said in a statement.
“It is the world champion of malicious cyber-attacks”.

Hong Kong return (7/2/2021)

Taiwan a Flashpoint
History

➢ The conflict between Taiwan and China can be traced back to the
17th century when the Chinses migrated to Taiwan and grew their
population for the next 100 years, outnumbering Taiwanese
natives.
 ➢ Later in 1887, Taiwan became part of China as a province that
ceded it to Japan and remained under its control till 1945.
➢ However, relations between China and Taiwan began improving
in the 1980s when China came up with the idea of “one country,
two systems”, giving Taiwan autonomy if it allowed Chinese
reconsolidation later.
➢ For the past 126 years, China has lost its lawful control over
Taiwan. The core of separation undermines the Chinese
government’s consideration of Taiwan as a breakaway region
that will, in the end, be a part of the nation once again.
➢ China considers Taiwan where nationalistforces fled in 1949 afterlosing a civil
war to the communists to be a province awaiting reunification, by force if
necessary.

Taiwan side
➢ President Tsai Ing-wen said no one can compel her country `to take the path China has
laid out for us`,
➢ Ms. Tsai, “would do whatever it takes to defend itself“.
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Chinese side
➢ Xi sees reunification as essential to his legacy. That`s not the only danger, though. There
are US troops in Taiwan and, absurdly, US coast guard vessels traversing the Taiwan
Strait. It`s worth remembering that the line between deterrence and provocation is
thinly drawn.
➢ What are the bald facts about Taiwan`s China claim?
o Cutting through its ownership under various Chinese dynasties, it was
colonised by the Japanese before it was returned to China in 1945, only
to become the base for the Kuomintang after Mao`s revolution.
o In 1979, the US switched its loyalty to the People`s Republic of China as
part of intensified efforts to isolate the USSR, which was not different
from the way it has wooed India in the post-Cold War era to counter
China.
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US side
 ➢ Biden. “yes, We have a commitment to defend Taiwan in case of China’s attack”
The White House clarified that it was still guided by the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, in
which Congress required the United States to provide weaponry to “enable Taiwan to
maintain sufficient self defence capabilities.”
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Implications for India

➢ India has its clashes with China at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and it is
suggested that the One China Policy should be reviewed. Taiwan and India have
had cultural and trade exchanges and high-level visits. This conflict between
Taiwan and China will further glue the two sides and will add to the hostility
towards China. The rivalry between China and India is expected to get deep with
time, and India is in a position to use the Taiwan card for its cause.
➢
Analysis
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Pakistan-China Relations
Pakistan needs china as ally against India. Also, it is eager for Chinese investment and too
conscious of west’s misgivings to put all their eggs in one basket.
Phase 1949-1963
Good will
➢ China became People’s Republic of China on 21st may 1949. Pakistan was the
first non-communist state to recognize China.
➢ China applied for the UN membership and Pakistan voted for them till 1974, until
they were recognized.
Conflict

➢ When Pakistan Joined CETO and CENTO, in 1950s. Chinese also feared that these
alliances were also against Chinese. So they condemned the joining of Pakistan.
Different prime ministers tried to convince that it would never be used against
China.
➢ Border dispute. The trans-Karakorum track. Acsai-chin. In 1953,Chinese issued
their official map showing that territory as theirs. By 1963, we were able to
resolve this issue by letting them have the territory in return of peace. LAND FOR
PEACE.
➢ China and Pak both supported each other on different platforms and different
occasions. During wars and normalization of their relations with US, Nickon’s
visit.
➢ In 1980s, Pak China developed military partnership. In 1980s, American
sanctioned Pakistan military aid through Pressler amendment. Pakistan has to
look for the alternatives. Chinese started investing in the ordnance factories.
HMC; heavy mechanical complex.
➢ Civil nuclear energy power plants were invested in. Chashnab. C1, C2,C3, C4, C5.
➢ In 2000, under a major defence agreement China established . HIT (heavy
industries Taxila, Manufacturing of Al-Khalid Tanks)
➢ In 2004, China sold us JF-17 thunder. And helped Pakistan to manufacture it in
PAC karma.
➢ In 2006, Pak-Chia signed, enforced in 2007, its free trade agreement.
Currently
Security
➢ JF- 17 upgraded version. Block-iii. With the help of China.
➢ HIC. Al-Khalid tank upgraded.
➢ Military exercises. Bilateral, multi-lateral under SCO(counter terrorism), Anam
exercises(Hosted by navy, after every 2 years, 26feb-5mar, 45 states)
➢ Upgrading Mushak to Super-Mushak.
➢ Naval 4warships and 8 subs along with transfer of techinology.
Political
➢ China support on the Kashmir issue (bilateral dispute between ind-pak)& since
2019, aligned their policy to Pakistan’s. Pakistan’s policy on Kashmir is to
plebiscite as per the resolutions of the UN.
➢ Supporting Pak’s role in Afghanistan. Troika. China, Pak & Afghanistan.
➢ Pak supports China’s stance on Ladakh
➢ Pak’s support of China’s One-China policy and oppose the US’ Indo-Pacific policy.
Support the china version of Uighur muslim issue

Nuclear
➢ Chasneb5, KNPP-1, by Canada. KNPP-2/K-2, china. Pakistan’ largest nuclear
power plant.
Non-CPEC economic collaboration
 ➢ Basha Dam 70% investment.
➢ Loans, 3 bollions.
➢ Nellum-jehlum power plant.
➢ Telecommunication, 5Gs
➢ K-electric. Largest deal between two private companies.
➢ Pak stock exchange shares.

Pakistan-Afghan Relations
Political players in Kabul must realize that Pakistan’s input in the peace process will be vital,
even if this country’s influence over the Taliban has diminished considerably. Considering its
geopolitical, historical and cultural proximity to Afghnaistan, Pakistan cannot be left out of the
Afghan equation. Blaming Pakistan for the failures of Kabul- as well as the failures of the Afghan
government’s Western patrons - is blatantly unfair.
Conflicts
Durand Line issue. Afghan believes that it was enforced on them by british, marking (some of
the regions in FATA) afghan land as Pakistan now that the british has left we need our territory
back. All the governments including Taliban were of the same view. However, some were soft
on the issue as Taliban and other were hardliners. The current afghan govt. is aggressive over
this issue. Numerous security personnel were killed who were involved in the fencing the
border. This is why in 1947, Afghanistan opposed the membership of Pakistan is the UN.
• The fencing is expected to be completed at a cost of about $500 million.
• Islamabad had always hoped that Afghan Taliban would help in settling the longstanding matter.
However, that has not been the case.Taliban did not resolve the issue when they were in control
ofAfghanistan from 1996 to 2001 and have not done anything substantive to address it this time
either so far.Taliban spokesperson Zabiullah Mujahid, who is currently the acting culture and
information minister, had in an interview days after the takeover of Kabul by the group in
August, rejected the fencing of the border by Pakistan.
“The Afghans are unhappy and oppose the fencing. ... The fencing has separated people and
divided families” ` he had said.
• Pakistan’s military says, “Fence is a reality. Nearly 90 per cent of it has been installed. Not
agreeing with it is not an option”

Pashtunistan issue. (Pashtun population 42-45%, Tajik 35%, Hazara, uzbek.). Except
Pashtuns,the rest of the communities have formed an alliance, Northern alliance headed by
sher-e-afghan( ahmad shah mahsood, a road in Islamabad is to be named after him),. Few of
the Pashtun leaders on both sides of the Durand line desired to merge into a single home land
in the name of Pakhtoonistan. Some of the Afghan govt. have encouraged this idea. Which has
posed a threat to the integrity of the Pakistan.
What we wasn’t currently is that Afghanistan shall be a governed by such a friendly peaceful
government that should not escalate the issue of the Durand line and that should not
encourage pashtoonistan movement.

Zahir shah ousted by sardar dawood (liberal). Informs were introduced. Economic ,political and
social. He tried to westernize the afghan society.Afghan society polarized pro and against (un-
islamic and against the afghan culture) the reforms. The against took arms against these
policies. Ahmad shah mehsood, Gulbudin Hikmatyar were one of them. In 1978, sardar dawood
was murdered and that revolution is called ‘saur’ revolution of April 1978 replace by Noor
Muhammad tarakai. A socialist backed by Soviot union (came to power due to the political
freedom granted by sardar Dawood, socialist took advantage of the this and came to power).
He started adopting pro- socialist ideology. After him Hafiz ullah Amin took the power.
The two communist parties -Khalq and Parcham had little popular support outside the cities and much
of the country`s army and police also opposed the coup against president Daoud. Plus, the two groups
fought each other madly. A crazed killer, Hafizullah Amin, became the top dog within Parcham. His rule
lasted just three months.

But, of course, Afghanistan was not to be left alone. When infighting between Khalq and Parcham
spiralled out of control, Moscow intervened to support the failing revolution by installing a new leader
from Parcham, Babrak Karmal.

This set off red alerts in the US. Publicly, America claimed Afghanistan was a domino whose fall would
trigger that of multiple others. But, in fact, it had seen opportunity now that Russia had exposed its soft
underbelly. The war began.

American got involved. The proxy war started and the support to the mujahidin also.(*not to
write in paper= pak support mujahid to press the idea of the Durand line and pashtunistan.
American noticed and to combat soviet union they started helping mujahid. Pak never helped
mujahid for the sake of American but for themselves )
In 1979, soviets directly intervened. And their forces continued till 1988. After Soviet came,
they killed Hafeez ullah Amin.
By 1985 the exhausted Soviets were ready to quit Afghanistan. The `bleeders` in Reagan`s
administration (a term invented by Eqbal Ahmad) had people like the assistant secretary of defence,
Richard Perle, who saw Afghanistan as a place to teach the Russians a lesson. They became the most
influential people in Washington and the apocryphal story of Afghanistan as Russia`s tar baby made its
rounds. Meanwhile, Pakistan was savouring both the importance Afghanistan had brought to it and the
planeloads of cash flying in. Gen Zia pointedly rejected Soviet offers to negotiate a withdrawal.

A triumphant America walked away from the scene of devastation once its Cold War rival had crumbled.
It did not expect the mujahideen who Reagan had so warmly welcomed to the WhiteHouse to develop a
deadly `Delta variant`. That mutant would level the World Trade Centre and cause the US to rush back
while loudly promising to civilise Afghanistan and destroy those extremists used earlier against Russia.
In 1988, Geneva accords. Soviet union withdrew. A temporary peace prevailed in Afghanistan.
After some Afghan mujahideen started preching in the seminaries and gained strength and
manpower by recuiting and training new youngsters.In 1992, they started the Taliban
Movement. The foreigner mujahideen went back to the Middle East and established Al-Qaeda
there. When in 1991, US invaded Iraq. Strife between Al-Qaeda and US grew. When these
group were together they developed close nexus through inter-marriages. They were attached
ideologically, socially and financially. When the US started pushing back against al-qaeda. Al-
Qaeda took refuge in the Taliban governed Afghanistan. And Taliban refused to hand over
Usama bin Laden to the US.
Post 9/11. On 7 October, Americans declared war on Afghanistan. American asked Pakistan to
support and we agreed. Pakistan made it clear that although we support you but use of military
is not a solution to this problem. Pak advised to talk to Taliban. During President Bush era. Pak
joined them in war. Bush had this conviction that he could win the war with military might,
without any negotiations with the Taliban. His policy failed. Obama’s policy was different for Al-
Qaeda & Taliban. He will eliminate the top leadership of Al-Qaeda through target killing. Obama
had significantly increased drone strike. (politicians take credit for the ceased drone strikes
rather, it is because of the annihilation of the Al-Qaeda leaders and the Obama’s policy (ACT
power policy) has over).For Taliban, US will send more troops. Defeat them in battlefield and
force them to have a peace-deal with Afghan Government. After the peace deal is established
US will return its forces by 31 December 2014.Taliban had it reservations that it will not
negotiate with the Afghan Government but with the US directly. Only if theUS forces withdraw
earlier than 2014, then we will talk to the Afghan Government. QCG(Quadrilateral Coordination
Group Pak, US , China & Afghanistan) they would talk to Taliban. First talks were held in
Murree. Murree peace process. It failed ultimately. Obama withdrew most of the forces to
reduce from 100,000 US force to 28000, could not withdraw by 2014. Due to their Pivot to Asia
Policy.
Us started turning towards the soaring China.In 2016, trump came in to power. He announce d
direct talk to the Taliban. With Pak’s support US-Tliabn started talks to each other. On 29th of
Feb 2020, they signed Doha Peace-Deal. (peace-process question has to start from the Bush
era).
Clauses:
Before 1st May 2021, US will gradually withdraw all of its forces from
Afghanistan. In addition to that US will release 5000 Taliban captives in response
to the Taliban’s 1000 Afghan govt. prisoners and will reduce violence& not attack
US during withdrawal.
Taliban will not support any terrorist group, Al-Qaeda, Daesh capable to launch
terrorist attacks outside Afghanistan.
 As soon as Taliban prisoners are released, Intra-Afghan negotiations will begin.
Unfortunately, Afghan govt. did not release the prisoners. US blocked its Aid to the Afghan
Govt. ultimately, afghan govt. had to release them.

On 12th sept, 2020. Intra-Afghan negotiations started between Taliban & Afghan Government.
Pak played a mediating role. Pakistan pressured Taliban to talk to the Afghan govt. but they
were moving forward at snail’s pace.
On 20thJnuary 2021, Biden assumed the office. And in April he announced new date of
withdrawal i.e. 11 sept,2021 except 600 forces that will stay to secure the embassy.
Recently, the situation is deteriorating in the country with Taliban’s sweeping military victories.
Pakistan’s Interest

• Durand line & Pashtunistan. Pakistan desire a friendly, peaceful and inclusive
government (a government having the representation s of all the groups in country).
Ultimately, these two issue will not be escalated and will not create any security
concerns for Pakistan
• A friendly, peaceful and inclusive government that should allow afghan soil to be used
against Pakistan e.g. India and radical Baloch groups.
• A friendly, peaceful and inclusive government that should established bilateral trade
relations.Pakistan has planned to extend rail lines and motorways to Afghanistan.
• A friendly, peaceful and inclusive government that should allow access to CARs and
Pakistan through Afghanistan.CASA1000, etc. this will generate transit economy. Giving
access to Gwadar to the CARs. Gwadar cannot succeed without peace in Afghanistan.
• Pakistan’s domestic security and economic development is not possible without peace
in Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s Taliban, after the 2002 crisis with India and pressure from the US, Pakistan imposed
restriction on them and those frustrated groups started back-fighting Pakistani state.
Future of Afghanistan
➢ Repetition of 1990s. The civil war and leading to Taliban acquiring power by force. it is
much likely. It will not be peaceful and ultimately no economic gains will be achieved.
And similarly, Pakistan’s relations with the regional states will be compromised.The
worst scenario
➢ The second scenario, if the negotiation succeeds and an inclusive government is formed.
Taliban has demanded the stepping down of the Ashraf Ghani and an interim
government should be formed meanwhile, the talks take place. This is leass likely but is
greatly in favour of Pakistan. This depends upon how coercively the US make the Afghan
government to make this deal.
 Pakistan-USrelations
No Exit from Pakistan: America's Tortured Relationship
with Islamabad
Book by Daniel Seth Markey

• Nuclear programme
• Close ties with China
• Vast military and its de-stability can cause huge problem to the region

The relation between Pakistan and the US has often waxed and waned according to
the situation in the region.
The United States have comparable interests, any disregard of which by a foreign power
they have declared that they would regard as an unfriendly act` a hostile step.
Interests cannot be good or bad. It can be poorly defined and can be misjudged.
Relations can be good or bad. Henry Kissinger “States have interests not friendships”
If the interests of the two states match, the relations between them are likely to
improve. They accompany each other until the interests are achieved.
The foreign policy/ interests matching determines relations.

Pakistan and the US operated on crises and have never been built independently and
bilaterally which bounds them to have certain expectations from each other and when
the state fall short on these expectations, they start to blame each other and the
relations between them starts deteriorating.

➢ Pakistan; America's most allied ally.

➢ In 1960s, they provided weapons to India against china. A concern for Pakistan.
➢ After 1965 war, US imposed sanctions on Pakistan.
o President Ayub Khan had challenged American interests in South Asia by opening up to
China. With the 1965 war adventure, he fell out of favour with US president Johnson.
But he continued to rule for another four years.
➢ 1971 war, they did not supply the spare part of the war machinery.
➢
➢ In coldwar, our interests were not to contain the USSR rather to befriend a global power
to gain economic and security help ultimately countering India.
 o We offered air bases. Badabir air base. Became part of CETO CENTO.
Fought proxy war in Afghanistan and inreturn, they help us to strengthen our
economy and security.
o Pakistan faced sanctions after the collapse of the USSR. Pakistan has allied with
the US for achieving its security interest, but it has always acted towards the US
as a friend, taking for granted the notion of international Relations that there
are no permanent friends and foes in International Relations but only permanent
interests.

➢ In the second phase, 1991-2001. In which US lost its strategic interests in Pakistan and
abandoned Pakistan. Consequently, the relations were not so good. Imposed sanctioned
by PRESSELER AMENDMENT due to Pakistan’s nuclear programme. And Pakistan
support to Taliban.
➢ Third phase. After 9/11, our interests aligned once again. We became partners in war on
terror. Land, air sea bases were granted. Provided them with intelligence and in return
they helped Pakistan militarily and economic development.23 billion dollars.
o Pakistan lost more than 70000 lives in the US-led war on Terror and had to face
nearly 4000 terrorist attacks alone in the year 2013. Economically, Pakistan faced
losses of around $150 billion due to this war. And the refugees brought evil of
smuggling and drug trafficking into the country. It also spurred extremism and
Kalashnikov culture in Pakistan. War on terror resulted in the rise of Tahrik-e-
Taliban Pakistan, which turned their guns towards the military and civilian
population of Pakistan. Attacks on shrines, mosques and markets accusing the
Muslim population of Pakistan of being infidels. 83,000 PAK KILLED BY
TERRORIST
o According to GD ISPR Maj Gen Iftekhar Babar Pakistan Lost 83,000 lives and the war on
terror costed it almost $ 126 billion
➢ However, as US withdrawal from afghan started and announced its Pivot to Asia
policy, Pak-US interests were at loggers head once again.
➢ 4th phase, current phase. Even in bad relation, there are some areas where there are
collaboration.
o Factors of Convergence
▪ Economics
• US is the second largest trading partner of Pak. For US our total
trade was of 6 billion dollars in 2020. Out of which 3.5 are exports,
with largest trade surplus. US is the largest destination of the
Pakistani exports.
• We are also provided with the US Aid (USAID). Education sector,
livestock, agriculture, hydropower.
▪ Collaboration in Afghanistan
 • Pak helped US inlogistics for its forces in Afghanistan. Also helped
them to evacuate.
• Pak helped US in talks with the Taliban, which materialized in the
form of Doha deal.
• Pak helped US in coaxing Taliban for the safe withdrawal of
Americans.
• Secretary of State Antony Blinken`s failure to include Pakistan on the
list of countries thanked for their efforts.
•
▪ D
▪ fg
o Diversions (more tilt)
▪ India
• Indo- Us nexus and its impact on Pak and US-Pak relation.
o There is zero sum game in south Asia. This nexus will grow
India’s power and would become. US should have a
hyphenated (connect)/ coupling(India and Pak are both
view in a single context) policy in south Asia in favour of
Pakistan.
o In early 2000s, American starteda De-hyphenated (seeing
both separately) approach towards India.
o Gradually, as the afghan war stated to wrap up. In 20019
Obama’s Pivot to Asia policy. US interest in Pakistan
became less. And to contain China they started
collaboration with India.
o After CAMCASA agreement. The ship incident took place.
India confiscated a ship coming from China to Pakistan.
With the help American intelligence. India used that
intelligence to not only harm china but also harmed
Pakistan.
o Pak want to reduce the American tilt towards India and
practically hyphenated approach in favour of India,as they
will use it to harm Pakistan.

Why India-US nexus is being formed?

o To contain china.
o Economic factors.
▪ India is the emerging economy and is likely to
become second largest economy after china in
2050. It have 1.25 billion of population. A huge
 market. And US also gets cheaper labour in India.
Largest science and engineer graduates in India.
o They have common in between themselves is
Democracy.American exceptionalism, America gate the
world order nobody could ever have thought of.American
pluralism, people of different religion, ethnicity color has
nothing to do with the state. Americans think the same of
India.Assimilation, when all are force to into a single
identity, your individualism does not remain intact.
o India has the same reasons.

What nexus?

o Military
▪ All discussed earlier.
▪ Held first ever-trident exercises in 2020. Army,air
force, navy.
o Political collaboration
▪ The issue of Kashmir. Us position of Kashmir is
predominantly in favour of India. They have also
backed the India’s surgical strikes in balakot.\ as
right of self-defence.
▪ Us-India nexus in FATF. They lobbied to put
Pakistan in the grey list.
▪ US supports India’s membership in veto
▪ US support India’s membership in Nuclear supplier
group
▪ US wants India to play a greater role in
Afghanistan.

How does thisnexus affect Pakistan?

o Threat to Pakistan due to the zero sum game. As the US-

India nexus in maturing Pakistan relation with us is
deteriorating.
o Gsgd
o
▪ We
▪ dgdfg
➢ The US and Pakistan have had rocky relations.
➢ Americans have always been skeptical of Pakistan’s role in Afghanistan and it has time
and again coerced Pakistan to do more.
➢ Pakistan is in difficult position, as the ties with China and Russia are building up it cannot
ignore Washington because it is a key pillar of Pakistan’s foreign policy.
➢ Recent development shows that the Pentagon has said that Pakistan is the key
regional state cooperating with US in maintaining the peace in the region and helping
US in terms of providing the Airspace and Land Accessfor supporting its presence in the
Afghanistan.
➢ National security advisers met in Geneva to discuss the revival of the bilateral relations
and to coax Pakistan to influence Taliban to abate the violence as the US troops
withdraw.
➢ Pakistan has been included in the Child Soldiers Prevention Act (CSPA) list published in
the US State Department’s Annual Trafficking in Persons Report 2021.
➢ Blinken “US would review its ties with Pakistan to examine the role it had played over
the past 20 years and see what it can do in future”
o The section 202 of the bill BY DEMOCRATES . The proposed legislation seeks
a report from the Secretary of State about Pakistan`s alleged involvement with Taliban
from 2001 to 2020 leading to its takeover of Afghanistan and suspected support for
Taliban`s offensive in Panjshir Valley against the resistance fighters.
▪ This could gather critical mass and give rise to the anti-Pakistan sentiments,
which Pakistan has tried hard to reverse in the preceding years.
o says Gen Frank McKenzie, who heads the US Central Command .The United States is
holding direct talks with Pakistan over the use of a vital air corridor to Afghanistan, even
though some US lawmakers are demanding a probe into Islamabad`s alleged role in the
Afghan war,. ”Over the last 20 years we`ve been able to use what “we call the air
boulevard to go in over western Pakistan and that`s become something that`s vital to
us, as well as certain landlines of communication”
o
o US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, said Washington no longer sees
itself building a `broad-based relationship` with Pakistan and that she was going
there with a `specific and narrow purpose` of talks on Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s reaction
• Foreign office “a coercive approach would not work in future as well .”
• Fdsfsd
• Fs
• F
• sdgf
Analysis/Future of Pakistan-US relations

• the attitude of the US towards the Afghan Taliban regime and Pakistan is
imprudent as it will leave the Afghan Taliban unchecked and they will have no
 reason to obey international norms. It will also weaken Pakistan financially which
can result in the re-emergence of terrorist groups in the country.
• One of the major reasons for the US’ bitter attitude towards Pakistan is its
relation with China. The geostrategic location of Pakistan makes it a key player in
the region which leads to the involvement of the country in the politics of the
great powers of the world.
•

West`s own goals `inconsistent policies` were responsible for its weakening and challenges to
its leadership. BOOK: World Politics Since 1989 by the Belgian scholar, Jonathan
Holslag.
The recklessness of the unilateralist American approach was evidenced in the two wars in Afghanistan
and Iraq that overstretched it as well as its partners. Regime change was sought and the consequence of
what Holslag calls mission creep, hubris and miscalculation was that it left the US and the West
diminished and their global reputation damaged. He also refers here to Pakistan`s military that saw
“Washington as arrogant and only interested in saving its face.”

Resentment against the West also intensified, according to the author, by the refusal to reform the
international financial architecture despite its eroding economic power. And while the West weakened,
China`s rise continued apace. With its rapid growth it also linked much of Asia to its economy and
supply chain. Holslag`s analysis of the Chinese economic miracle is both insightful and instructive.
However, his discussion of why the world got to where it is today is even more compelling. He argues
that after the 2008 financial crisis, stability never revived in the West, which lost its position as the
global economic center. Political trust in governments plunged. Democracy weakened. All of this
contributed to the fragility of peace in the world.

Holslag sees three changes that have defined the world order , the rise of China, decline of
optimism in the Global South as regional powers like India and Brazil failed to strengthen their
economies and what he calls the return of `hard hedging`. By the latter, he means regional powers
playing to both camps US and China to avoid taking sides in order to maximize their options and
autonomy. As a result, the world today is `more fragmented and turbulent`.

All-weather frenemy The war in

Afghanistan is over, but the West still needs
Pakistan
NONE OCTOBE R 07, 2021
"An all-weather frenemy"

WHEN THE last American troops departed from Kabul on August 30th, it
meant not only the end of a 20-year campaign in Afghanistan but also the
end of Western reliance on neighbouring Pakistan. In that time the country
had been an infuriating partner that had helped NATO forces with logistics
and intelligence even as it provided a haven to the Taliban’s leaders. Now,
perhaps America could wash its hands and walk away.

America and its allies have plenty of reasons to feel aggrieved. Pakistan is
perpetually sparring with its neighbour, India—which is steadily becoming
a vital regional partner for the West. It has close diplomatic and
commercial ties with China, to which it provides access to the Indian
Ocean, via the Karakoram highway and the port of Gwadar. It is home to
lots of Muslim extremists. With a GDP per head that is just two-thirds of
India’s and which has in recent years been falling, Pakistan might seem a
sensible country to shun.

If only. Although Pakistan is no longer so central to America’s plans, it is

still a pivotal—and worrying—place. It has a rapidly expanding arsenal of
nuclear weapons. Those Muslim extremists have been involved in terror
attacks all over the world. The country’s capacity to complicate relations
between China and India means that it is too important to ignore.
However, the West needs to be realistic about what sort of co-
operation is and is not possible. Realism starts by acknowledging that
Pakistan will never do many of the things its Western friends would like.
Exhortations to the army to stop stage-managing politics will fall on deaf
ears, even though Pakistan would be better off if it did. Trying to induce
Pakistan to split with China is also hopeless. The generals are too keen to
have an ally against India, too eager for Chinese investment and too
conscious of the West’s misgivings to put all their eggs in one basket.
Doing anything that smacks of siding with America against fellow Muslims
is also a hard sell. Pakistan’s rulers see themselves as natural leaders of the
Islamic world and are reluctant to rile their most doctrinaire citizens.

Nevertheless, for all its problems, Pakistan is in a position to offer

something to the West. Its politics have become calmer since the army
stopped trying to run the country directly and instead entrusted the task to
a pliable politician, Imran Khan. The Islamist terrorists who made the place
look like an incipient Afghanistan a few years ago have been largely
suppressed. What is more, although Pakistan is chummy with China, it also
craves Western attention. The elite speak English, send their children to
American and European universities and holiday in London and Paris.

And Pakistan has something to gain. Even more than America, it

benefits from tempering the zealotry of the Taliban, keeping Afghanistan
stable and preventing the spread of extremism. The Pakistani version of the
Taliban has killed far more Pakistanis than the Afghan Taliban killed
Americans. Pakistan’s rulers would also like more economic assistance,
ideally on more concessionary terms than the millstone loans that have
accompanied some Chinese investments. No doubt they will give in to the
temptation to play China and the West off against one another. But that is
better than becoming a Chinese client state.

The ultimate prize would be some sort of detente between Pakistan and
India. That will not come easily, or quickly. Politicians and soldiers in both
countries find railing against the other lot too useful to abandon lightly. But
Pakistanis know they cannot compete with India in the long run.
And after border scuffles in the Himalayas, Indians are coming to see that
deterring China is much more important than bickering with Pakistan.
There is surely scope to make the region safer, and to build a stronger
network of alliances, if the West is willing to remain sufficiently engaged
and to plan for the long term.
Dial D for diplomacy
Although its Taliban allies won in Afghanistan, Pakistan is in a difficult
position in a dangerous neighbourhood. The generals know that the West
blows hot and cold, but their narrow self-interest leaves scope for co-
operation. Some glad-handing would be a good start. Joe Biden, America’s
president, has held two summits with Narendra Modi, India’s prime
minister—one in person and one by video link. He has not yet deigned to
give Mr Khan a call, much less invite him to the White House. Now that
America has left Afghanistan, a bit of courtesy makes sense. ■

Pakistan-RUSSIA relations

Latest
➢ 3rd round of JMCC joint military consultative committee held in Pakistan. JMCC was set
up in 2018 as defence cooperation. Defence tes have steadily grown since.
➢ Ukraine war
o President Putin does seem to recognise the value of his country`s warmer relations with
Asian countries to avert any worldwide diplomatic isolation and also stake a major role
in the Eurasian landmass.
o For years now, both Russia and Pakistan have been attempting to infuse substance into
their relationship. Some headway was made in 2014 when a Defence Cooperation
Agreement was signed, followed by military exchanges and joint exercises. However, on
the economic front, the long-awaited Russian investment into the Pakistan Stream Gas
Pipeline has still not matured. For the bilateral relationship to assume a higher profile, it
would be important for Russia to engage in some economic projects in Pakistan. One
note of caution: Pakistan would need to undertake due diligence to ensure that the
West`s sanctions against Russia do not implicate Russian investments in Pakistan. On
regional issues, Russia seems deeply interested in coordinating with Pakistan and other
neighbours of Afghanistan to secure a lasting peace.
 o Russia has also taken a positive position on Islamophobia, which has been appreciated
by Pakistan. Notably, however, Russia remains sensitive to any faith-based violent
extremism or terrorism, mainly because of its own history with Islamist groups.

Pakistan: from Geo-strategic to Geo-economics

(Not to write in paper, pakistna army want t avoid any more battle and confrontations and the
idea of shifting from geo politics to geo-economic is spurred by them. They believe that with a
strong economy they can keep the the defence budget high and pay more to the army
personals to keep their morals high (this has been the tradition of the rulers that to maintain a
loyal army they would pay lavishly to the army because nobody fights for the king or the cause
of their religion). Army thinks that they are going to lose Kashmir sooner or later if they did not
stand at par with the indian army. As their econmy is growing they can afford better equipment
according to SIPRI report 2021 india is the 2 biggest importer of the military equipment behind
Saudi arabia na d Pakistan is ranked at 10th.

Historical role of Pakistan’s foreign policy in geo-strategic (geo- strategic= geo economic + geo
politics) strategic= something extremely valuable.

• In 1947 has to set the foreign policies.

o Existential Threat. Our top most interest after the inception was survival against
our archenemy in our neigbour, who is 6 time our Population, 10 times our
economy, 3 times your military, 10 times your defence Budget. As India was
capturing territories one after the other that were previously directly part of
Pakistan or Pakistan had claim on.For example, Hyderabad, juna ghar that
aligned with Pakistan but India sent military and captured it, it did the same in
Kashmir. Pakistan was of the fear that it would do the same with Dhaka and
Karachi. Adding fuel to the fire, Indian leaders were giving statements that
Pakistan would not survive. We aligned with the US through against the USSR
through CETO, SENTO. To provide the air bases for the surveillance over USSR’s
 nuclear ballistic missile programme. In 1965, it proved to be a right choice, by
defending in that war. We used geography to achieve the security interests.
• Our relations with regional and other states were mainly based on the strategic and
political interests
• In 1980s,
o On another occasion, we helped the US in Afghanistan against the USSR in the
Cold War in return of the security aid. The economic aid received was used for
the security. Throughout the cold war we made decisions keeping our geography
in consideration to achieve security and political interests.
• In 1990s,
o Relations with china was again predominantly security oriented. HMC (heavy
mechanical complex, texila 1990, parts of guns), POF(Pakistan Ordinance
Factories, 1990s )().
o Supporting Taliban regime, in Afghanistan was also driven by the security
interests. The Strategic depth .
• After 9/11
o Pakistan joined the US war on terror, to gain the military aid, in return of the
geographical and air access. Most of the US aid was predominantly used for the
military upgradation. $33billlion in total, of which 18 were used for the military
purposes. F16, cobra helicopter. Trade and economy was not a top priority then.
Throughout the history, whenever we had the chance to interact with the world powers in
return to the favours we offered we demanded military and security assistance.

• After the Pivot to Asia policy of US 2012,

o against China. China proposed an alternative route through Pakistan. Again
another emerging global power was seeking the geographical support of
Pakistan. This time we negotiated to shift our policy and in return we prioritized
our economic growth. In the entire CPEC, not a single project is related to the
security.
• After 2013,
o Pakistan is gradually moving towards geo-economic interest.
Why Pakistan moved towards economics

• 21st century is primarily determined by the geo-economic interest and geo-economic

competitions among states.The geo-politics is aimed at achieving the geo-economic
interest.
o For Example: QUAD was primarily a naval exercise but in their last summit, they
has shifted their motive towards the supply chain, technology, and economics to
insure the geo-economic security in the region.
 • The return of the civilian governments. The currently serving span is the longest span of
the civilian governments of Pakistan. Historically, wherever the global conflicts needed
Pakistan, military establishment were at the helm. And they always prioritized the
military interests. Now the civilian governments are prioritizing the economic interests
over the Security interests.
• Pakistan’s arms race, conventional and nuclear, with India the Balance of Power in
ramping and due to multiple reasons. Therefore, Pakistan need to strengthen its
economy to acquire the latest weapons to stand should to should with India.
Challenges faced by Pakistan in achieving Eco-economic Policy

• Internal Challenges
o Political stability
▪ Political uncertainty of being ousted by the Military Dictators.
Frequent changes through the history. And the certainty of returning
martial till exists. These circumstances make the political leaders
focused on their survival rather than performing boldly. No PM in the
Pakistan has ever completed his term so far.
▪ Agitational politics. Sit-ins, protests.
o Economic instability
▪ Historically, Pakistan has faced economic crisis.
▪ Instable currency rate. Current account deficit is widening.
▪ 9.5 % inflation rate.
▪ No attractive FDI.
▪ TRADE DEFICIT 20 billion
▪
o Internal security
(pre-requisite of every economic development) security is temporary. The
ultimate goal is to achieve Peace. Security is when there are threats but you
take measures to counter them. Threats have not diminished, they still
persists. Deploying army can bring security but not peace. Although security
is the first step to achieve peace. Peace, is when there are no more threats.
▪ Extremism
▪ Baloch insurgency
▪ Sectarian violence
▪ Law & order problems
• External Challenges
o Contemporary Geo- strategic environment is south Asia is in no feasible to
further our geo-economic policy.
▪ The relation with India regarding Kashmir.
 • Bilateral dimension; if these two countries continue to be
hostile towards each other.Our political will be wrongly
utilized; Our leadership will be focused solely on countering
threat instead of economy and there won’t be any FDI.
• The escalation of India China conflict is a major catalyst
for regional instability. Pakistan with be unintended victim of
it
• Indo-Pacific policy of US. India-US nexus against China is also
a threat to economic interest. US presence in the region is a
point of concern for Pakistan especially its nexus with india.
(this the reason we came to cease fire)
▪ Relations with Afghanistan
• At the juncture, Afghanistan is posing threats to Pakistan
economic policy as the key interest lies in Afghanistan. C.A
connectivity, CPEC.
(this is the reason why we want eternal peace in Afghanistan)
▪ Relations with Iran
• Uncertainty regarding their nuclear programme. Similarly,
Iran’s conflict with other countries is also a major set-back to
the Pakistan’s economic development.
Pakistan’s geographical location makes it a hot cake for the geo-economic linkages. However,
the global powers interest and conflicts in the region put Pakistan in the line of fire. Leaving
Pakistan no option to be of part of geo-political chess game.

➢ Definition “using economic tools to advance geopolitical objectives”, achievement of

foreign policy outcomes by economic, not military, power projection, and use of
economic instruments to promote and defend national interest and produce beneficial
geopolitical results”. Some see “geo-economics as a form of statecraft that deploys
geopolitical power and leverages geography to achieve economic ends”.
➢ Edward Luttwak, a US strategic thinker first forged the term geo-economics in 1990 in
the Cold war’s aftermath. He argued that commerce was displacing military power as a
tool for countries to deploy with geo-economics emerging as an admixture of the logic
of war with the methods of commerce.
➢ Book War by other Means by Robert Blackwil l and Jennifer Harris contributed to
the global debate on rising role of geo-economics in the international arena. States
using economic tools to achieve strategic objectives that were in the past the stuff of
military coercion or conquest.
➢ Book titled Geo-economics and power Politics in the 21st Century,
states that geo-economics has not entirely replaced military means of statecraft. Both
instruments coexists and are deployed by countries depending on what they consider
appropriate for the challenges they confront. It says, making use of economic tools the
factors that count in geo-economic strategies include markets, resources, and ability to
control and direct investment to compete effectively.
➢ China is the apt example of the ‘practitioner of geo-economics’ with its Bet and Road
Initiative is the biggest and most ambitious geo-economic enterprise of the century.
Encomp’assing over 70 countries and engaging 138s states.
➢ This shift was announced in March during the Islamabad Policy Dialogue’
organized by Pakistan’s political and military leaders. This outlined a new policy
direction that involved prioritizing economic security, changing the ‘narrative of
geopolitical contestation to geo-economics cooperation increasing Pakistan’s Economic
footprint globally and promoting regional connectivity.
➢ It is questionable how geo-economics will be separated from geopolitics, as the two are
interrelated. Moreover at a time when Pakistan is confronted with more than one
geopolitical storm- regional and global- how exactly will the country negotiate
geopolitical challenges while pivoting to geo-economics?. Afghan issue. India repressive
course in Kashmir, US-china. Thus, geopolitics and Pakistan’s security dilemmas cannot
be washed away by declaration alone. A new strategy has to be matched to reality.
➢ Geo-economics has been successfully pursued by big and small powers alike.
➢ The crucial and obvious requirement is domestic economic strength and resources.
Does Pakistan have the economic attributes regarded as prerequisites to pursue a
geopolitical policy? The most fundamental requirement is strong economy.
➢ Pakistan with a narrow tax base and failure to mobilise domestic resources
has inevitably meant ingrowing indebtedness and reliance on frequent IMF bailouts. A
limited and undiversified export base lack of innovation has also prevented the country
from becoming a player in global markets and economy.
➢ 3.17 million Active payer 2020
➢ 2.1 million Active Tax Payer 2021
o With 23 loans since 1958, we are the most IMF-addicted state regionally.
➢ How can it be achieved
o Ensure a stable political environment
o Reorder its internal priorities
o Budget allocation
o Structural reforms
➢ If by geo-economics, the government means leverageing the country’s location to
become a regional hub that vision has been projected by every government since the
1990s. It was never realized because of regional geopolitical tensions and country’s
 weak economic fundamentals. And that too requires a strong economic foundation
including efficient and attractive markets.
Critical view.
Good intensions aside, but this policy is likely to hit a brick wall of reality very fast.
o With neighbor Afghanistan sliding into civil war
o Unrest on the line of control where both states area not ready for any
concessions on the Kashmir dispute.
o Caught between the cross- hairs of the US- China cold war and finds it difficult to
maintain the balance. Washington has not only lost interest in Pakistan but sees
the country as firmly in China’s sway.

FDI
HE consistent decline in FDI flows into Pakistan in recent years should worry our economic
managers. The net flows fell by just under 39pc year-on-year in July in continuation of the trend
witnessed last fiscal when long-term, non-debt-creating investments plummeted by 29pc to
$1.85bn from the previous year. State Bank data for the last four years shows that inward FDI
flows are either plunging or stagnating while outward flows have surged over time. Hence, FDI
stocks have declined from $41.9bn to $35.6bn in five years from 2016 to 2020. With rising fears
of the impact of the Afghan situation on Pakistan, net FDI flows are expected to shrink further.
The rise in Pakistan bond yields soon after the collapse of the government in Kabul indicates the
loss of global investors` confidence in the economy. Pakistan may also face reduction in its
export revenues if the instability and uncertainty in Afghanistan linger.

• FDI is crucial as it helps technology and skill transfer,

• improves business management practices,
• lifts exports and the economic growth of host nations,
• and creates jobs.
• These inflows are more important for countries like Pakistan facing balance-of-payments
problems to cut their reliance on expensive foreign debt so they can finance their imports and
build reserves.
• Hence, we see countries offering a slew of tax, regulatory and other concessions to attract
foreign investors.

Somehow Pakistan has never been able to inspire foreign investors because

• of frequent changes in policies, lack of rule of law, poor security conditions,

• political instability,
• macroeconomic troubles, etc.

While FDI in South Asia spiked by 20pc to $71bn in 2020 despite Covid-19, Pakistan saw these
flows come down sharply to less than 0.75pc of its GDP. FDI flows to India rose by 27pc to $64bn
in various sectors of its economy during the same year. Indonesia and Vietnam received FDI
flows of $18.6bn and $15.8bn. With the government piling up foreign debt and the share of
short-term expensive borrowings growing rapidly, and exports slow to grow, it is time
policymakers addressed the reasons pushing investors away.

Cases in point of mishandling the foreign investors

• the case initiated by Bayindir Insaat Turism Ticaret, under the 1995 Turkey-Pakistan
Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) was registered at the ICSID (International Centre for
Settlement of Investment Disputes) on Oct 12,. the Islamabad-Peshawar Motorway (M-
1) project.
• The new ICSID claim has addedyet another dispute against Pakistan which is still fighting
a case to annul a $5.97 billion award won in 2019 by Australian mining venture Tethyan
Copper Company (TCC) over a copper and gold deposit. TCC had initiated the dispute for
enforcement of the July 12, 2019, award amounting to $5.97bn against Pakistan by the
ICSID in the Reko Dig litigation. TCC had claimed $8.5bn for rejection of its application by
the mining authority of Balochistan for the multimillion dollars miningleasein the
provincein 2011.
• in 2019, Pakistan settled a billion-dollar ICSID award in favour of another Turkish
investor, energy company Karkey Karadeniz, without making any payment. That dispute
concerned the cancellation of a short-term electricity contract and seizure of Karkey`s
vessels amid allegations of corruption. The contracts were signed between 2006 and
2008 toplug the energy shortfall as a stopgap arrangement through rental power
projects. Karkey had initiate d the arbitration proceedings in 2013 against Pakistan for
the breach of the bilateral investment treaty and the unlawful expropriation of different
rights and assets of the power-generating company. The dispute was decided in August
2017. The 232MW barge-mounted Karkey power plant was part of an initiative
approved by the previous PPP government to generate approximately 1,206 megawatts
of electricity to plug the crippling load-sheddingin the country.
• It is no secret that Pakistan suffers from a volatile and turbulent brand of politics. But if
incoming governments do not respect the contractual obligations signed by their
predecessors, foreign investors will think twice before venturing into our market.

Foreign Policy of Pakistan

Maleha lodhi “The test of foreign policy is to secure outcomes that advance the country`s
interests and not the number of speeches that are delivered.”

DETERMINANTS

I. GEOGRAPHY
 II. MILITRY POWER
III. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
IV. IDEOLOGY
V. POLITICL STABILITY
VI.

Q: Foreign policy determinants of Pakistan.

Pakistan’s foreign policy was shaped by the Security and economic constraints. From
1947- 1979.

➢ Foreign policy/ dictates foreign relation; foreign policy defines the goals of a nation’s
interest with the foreign states. To achieve these goals, a state formulate a plan of
action called as strategy.We make relations and interaction with other to achieve
the goals. States whose interest matches with other, the relation between them
increases.
➢ Theoretically, the PM and his cabinet (executive) decides the foreign policy and
takes decisions on any matter but they are under the check of the parliament. The
parliament can be critical of any decision taken by the PM and can even dismiss him
through vote of no confidence. In a parliamentary system any member, ruling party/
opposition party, can question the decision but in Pakistan the parliament members
are preferentially party members later they are parliament members. That’s why the
anyone from the ruling party do not question the decision the decision of the
executive.
In reality, in Pakistan the situation is different.
➢ Factors that determine the foreign policy of Pakistan.
o Geography; (state both states and the region) the most important factor of
Pakistan’s foreign policy. Stephen p. cohen “while history has been unkind to
Pakistan but it is the geography of Pakistan that has favoured it.” Location;
Pakistan as a strategic location. Located in South EastAsia, having borders
with India, China,- two major powers, Arabian sea- busiest trading route-
northwest region, CARs rich in natural resources, are next closer to Pakistan.
Southeast Asia-is the emerging economies and are also energy starved so
Pakistan can prove to be a bridge between CARs and this region. , weather,
size.

o Ssdd
o Sd
o
 ➢ History
o As newly, independent state it was run by the Government of India act 1935
an later in 1949 when Objective resolution was present it was termed as
mini-constitution and magnacarta of Pakistan. As it provided an inkling of the
discourse, Pakistan was to take in its foreign policy.
▪ Pakistan would promote democracy, equality, and international
peace.
▪ Quaid-e-Azam presented an outline of the foreign policy of Pakistan
“Our foreign policy is one of friendliness and goodwill towards the
nations of the world. We do not cherish aggressive designs against
any country or nation. We believe in the principles of honesty and
fair-play to national and international dealings and are prepared to
our utmost contributions to the peace and prosperity among the
nations of the world. Pakistan will never be found lacking in extending
its material and moral support to the oppressed and suppressed
people of the world and upholding to the principles of the United
Nations.”
• These facts substantiates that Pakistan has never cherished to
become a regional or international hegemon.
▪ Paksitan concern had been its regional integrity.
▪ Pakistan concerne had been its brotherly relations with Muslim
Countries.
▪ Non-interference in each other’s domestic affairs.
➢ Global
o After the world war-II, when the two cold war rivals sought after the newly
independent state to rally them around and struck with them defence deals
as they were in the need of the defence.
o In the bi-polar world, Pakistan went into the US camp through SEATO 1954,
CENTO/Baghdad pact 1955. On the other hand, through WARSAW pact,
other countries joined USSR. Liaqat Ali khan visited USA, when he received
invitation from both blocks.
▪ Pakistan had joined the US block in the hope that tomorrow if
Pakistan is being attacked, US wil help them miliatarily as well as
economically. But it did not turn out to be as wished.
▪ Non Align movement. AlthoughIndia was Part of non-alignment
movement, Russia helped him in both wars and on the stance of
Kashmir. It also hurt Pakistan’s stance on the NWFP. In 1971,It also
vetoed the cease fire resolution thrice in the UN to give indian forces
more time to penetrate in the east pakistan.
After 1971, we joined non-alignment movement.
In 1979, we USSR invaded Afghanistan, US sought help from to Pakistan to further its ant communism
policy.

▪ Basis were provided bases to USA.

o Afgter withdrawal of USSR, US imposed sanctions on Pakistna through
presler amendment. To discourage its nuclear programme.
o After 9/11 2001, pakistan again become part of US allies.

➢ Pakistan came into being amidst cold war.Through out the cold war Pakistan’s
foreign policy was influenced byt the geographical region. US and soviet were in
search of allies. Forming new blocs and unions to counter each other. US had a
containment policy and soviet has the expansionist policy.Thucydides trap.Pakistan
got involved keeping its view its existential security threats from India. Soviet did not
need Pakistan’s geographical location to forward its ideology while US needed
Pakistan to become its strategic arm to contain Soviet Union.Pakistan had also an
issue with Soviet, as it was merely 27 KMs from the current day Tajikistan former
Soviet Union territory. SETO and CENTO. US was successful inconstitution of a wall
of allies around Soviet. Furthermore, it used Pakistan to spy on Soviet ballisticmissile
programme.Even in the proxy war, it was used as a launching pad. The significance
of Pakistan increased further in the US’ war on terror.
➢ The new cold war between US and China. Our geographical location is important for
both global powers. US needs to contain China while China need access to the deep
port due to the threats at Malacca strait. China is fighting the economic war while
US need Pakistan as it strategic partner. Therefore PM says “Pakistan will a partner
in peace not in conflict”
o Pakistan aliened with US because of two factors;
▪ Its Security situation vis a vis india
▪ Its geographical location.
➢ On the other hand, Pakistan’s global involvement has also cost Pakistan heavy
losses.
o Conflict with soviet
o Spread of terrorism and extremist
o US sanction in the current times

➢ Regional importance
➢ Paksitan’s geographical proximity lead to certain conflicts and disputes like Kashmir,
water. Forcing Pakistan to look for outsiders’ help. India and paksitan has to jump in
th Nuclear Arm race.
➢ Paksitan’s geographical border with afghanistan lead to some disputes and conflicts
like Pashtunistan , durandline 1983.
➢ Iran helped in war with india
Currently
➢ Pakistan geography has been instrumental in regional energy other economic
integration. Tapi. CA gas pipe line has to cross Pakistan to reach Indai. Afghans
transit trade has to go through Pakistan. Pakistan is a Gate-way to Central Asia.
➢ Topography and tarrain has limited significance for Pakistan. The mountains has
helped Pakistan to not worry about its northenr and western sides that helped us
deploy our forces to our east. We have plains on the boundary withindia. In plains,
the numerical strength is favoured. Paksitan is structured as an elongated territory
consequently Pakistan lack strategic depth(retreating space) that forces paksitan to
find strategic depth in its west. Sometimes in iran and in Afghanistan. Terran and
size of Paksitan has created a security dilemma.
➢ Pakistan has one of the strongest military in the world and it the 6th nuclear state
and the only muslim nuclear power state. This miltray strength is on eof the major
factor in deriving our foreign policy regarding the muslim state. Their security is
heavily reliant upon Pakistani army. International community interact with Pakistan
in keeping its military might.
➢
➢ Pakistan`s policy on Afghanistan, Mr Qureshi said the Taliban takeover following the
collapse of the Ghani regime presented `a window of opportunity for durable stability after
40 years of conflict`.
➢ Gsgs

➢ Talking about two schools of thought in foreign policy pertaining to `morality and realistic`
➢ Dsfd

Implications for Pakistan for siding with US in afghan jihad and its war
on terror
➢ Refugees
➢ Religious extremism
➢ Terrorism
➢ Monetary and human lives loss.
➢ Turned afghan border into a continuous hot battlefield for Pakistan.
➢ Pakistan has to spend a huge sum on making the Cities Safe, during the war on
terror due to excessive bombing.
 ➢ We have opened 3 fronts, india, Afghanistan, iran to some extent in terms of sectarian
conflicts

Shift in the foreign policy

➢ Pakistan’s foreign policy has got shifted from the it core discourse that it had set in the
beginning.
➢ We deserted the policyof global peace.
➢ Condoleezza Rice in her book “NO HIGHER HONOUR” says that 2008 -2014 aid received
was a mere 1.3% of our GNI and it did not have a significant affect on our economy or
development. Because 80% of the fund were channel to Military as the expense of Social
development.

Pakistan’s relevance to US Post Afghanistan withdrawal.

➢ Pakistan has lost its luster and is being blamed for its debacle in the Afghanistan for
playing double game.
➢ Pakistan wants to shift its relation with US from being awar comrade to a business
partner.FM “we will be partners in peace not in war.”

Pakistan’s policy towards Afghanistan.

➢ Pakistan still face the issue of Durand Line despite having a so called favourable
government in Afghanistan.
➢ Pakistanshould be nuance in assisting Afghanistan but avoid a stretch.
➢ Dsf
➢

Pakistan in the cross hairs of Sino-US rivalry.

• Paksitan did not participate in the US democracy summit as Taiwan was invited in it.
Wich is against One China Policy, which Pakistan supports.
• India gaining leverage over Pakistan in the region being a US partner in the QUAD. This
has raised Pakistan’s concerns.
• US condone the Pakistan’s concerns on Kashmir due to their strategic partnership with
India.
•
• For further information See from Pak china relations
• Sfs
• Gfsgsg
• Sgfs

Pakistan in the cross hairs of WEST-Russia, amidst Russo-Ukraine war.

• See from Russia Ukraine war.

• US FACTOR
• ECONOMIC TIES
• RUSSIA FACTOR
•
• Sfs
• CAN’T CHOOSE ANYONE
•
Democracy
The current democracy in the world is called Liberal democracy.
In Essay and political Science, democracy is liberal democracy and liberty
In Pakistani context democracy is the civil military equation.

Civil-Military relations

➢ democracy: most modern demoracy is called liberal democracy. And it is linked with
john Locke and Francis fukuyamah.
Liberal democracy: it is the right of people to make free choices about
themselves.
There are three things you deal within your lives, political affairs, economic & social
affairs. Political affair of one life is, support for any political party, having a political
ideal. Some also participate in political processes like rallies, campaigns. If there is no
compulsion on you from any side, from state or society then you have a political
liberty. Every state has a certain level of democracy.
Economic freedom is when you can start a business or your choice, own
property, select a career for himself. In pakistan if somebody wants to manufacture
tansks the state would not allow it. So there is less democracy in pakistan relative to
the US. Where lockhead martin, aprivate firm, produces the fighter jets.
Social affairs are, religion, sect, dress code, language, marriages. Certain state
departments do not allow to use language of your choice.
The more an individual enjoys freedom the more democratic that state is.
There is a major democratic deficit in Pakistan from society and state alike.
 In Pakistan the civilian governments are more likely to promote more freedoms
than the military governments.
Regime= type of government.
➢ The more free the people are to make choices, that do not harm others, the more
democratic that country is.Democracy is the fundamental right of every human
being.
➢ Democracy/liberal democracy/modern democracy. has political= make free choices
in political sphere, economic= to enjoy a laisses fair. Capitalism is economic
democracy and social& cultural =languages, marriages , identities, dress code,
religion.
➢ In Pakistan it is considered that civilian governments tend to provide more liberty
than the Military government therefore, the civilian become more democratic.
(Regime = form of government)

Evolution
➢ In 1947-1958, we had a civilian governments. Governor generals Jinnah.
Nazim ud dun, Ghulam Muhammad, Iskandar mirza.after 1956 the governor general
post was replaced by the president of Pakistan Iskandar mirza.
➢ from1958-1962, military of Pakistan imposed its first martial law (Ayub Khan).
Martial Law=The Law that substitutes the constitution. (Name of the law).
➢ In in 1962 martial Law was ended and a new constitution was introduced. But ayub
kept on ruling till 1969. When a military serving personnel rules it is called military
rule (who is ruling). When he resigned in 1969, he handed over the power to a new
military general, General Yahya. He imposed martial law. Yahya khan abrogated the
constitution the 1962. Yahya Ruled through martial law till 1972. The military rule
continued till 1971. 1971 to 1972, butto imposed martial law. In 1972, the supreme
court of Pakistan, Asma jilani case (asma Jhangir was previosu know as asma jilani,
first female president of supreme court bar), declared the martial as null and void.
o In 1972, chief justice Yaqoob Ali Khan. Butto took over, the first civilian chief
martial law administrator. According to martial law administion. Two people
were under arrested. Father of Asma Jilani, gulam jilani and altaf gohar. Wife
of altaf ghar ms nazmeen and daughter of gulam jilani , asma jilani
challenged their arrest.
o Yaqoob ali khan declared the martial law of yahaya khan unconstitutional
and declared him usurper. And all his acts were termed as illegal. These two
men were acquitted. However, this judgement did not suggested any
punishments for yahya khan.
➢ In 1972 a new constitution was implemented. An interm constitution. Till 1977,
Pakistan was rulled by civilian government.
➢ In 1977, another martial law was imposed by the zia. This time he abrogated
the constitution. Till 1985 the constitution remain suspended and replaced. zia
continued to rule till 1988. From 1985-1988, constitution was revived. RCO. In 1988
he died.
➢ From 1988 till 1999, different civilian governments ruled the state.
➢ In 1999, another martial law wsa imposed , the constitution was suspended till 2002.
This was the first time that a military ruler did not use the term martial law.
➢ In 2002, constitution was resotored. But muharaf ruled till 2008. In 2007 he resigned
as army chief and till 2008 he ruled as a civilian.
➢ In 2008, PPP assumed the office. Till 2013
➢ 2013 till 2017 nawaz sharif and 2017 -2018 shhid kahqan abasssi.
➢ In 2018, PTI took the reign of power.

Military had covert role in the rest of the civilian government.

e.g; Aslam khan case. Supremen court of Pak held the army chiedf and aDG Isi
responsible for diving partition s on behalf of IJI to overthrow the government of
PPP in 1989.
General raheel Kakar,in 1993, the president Ghulam ishaq khan dismissed the Nawaz
sharif govt. but supreme court restored it. Which triggered the internces conflict
between president and prime0- minister and the country suffered. It was then that
the army chief .Gen raheel kakar intervened and forced both the the prime minister
and the president to resign. All this was happening behind the curtain.
The actual problem with Pakistan delipidated political history is not just martial laws
and the military rules but also the frequent interruptions of the civil democratic
governments in Pakistan.
o Even when there were civilian governments, not a single prime minister had
been allowed to complete its 5 year tenure.
o The first parliament to complete its 5-year term was in 2013-2018.

Reasons for why democracy could not be stagnant/ reasons why military
intervened in thepolitics

➢ Security threat; due to the persistent indian threat towards the existence of Pakistan
since its inception. That is why Pakistan’stop national policy is based on its security.
We spent most of our recousrces to strengthen military, due to whichit became
more powerful than any other institution andbecame overdeveloped creating an
institunal imbalance. Strongly organized. Some of the military personnel misused
that power to capture politics. The resources granted, due to the security dilemma,
to defend the borders were used for the politics manifestation.
➢ Colonials; during the British colonizers the militaryin Sub-continent was to control
the internal control, a possible another rebellion. They also used this military for the
governance purposes in the peacetimes. They were trained with the mindset that
these Indians are your subservient while you are their masters. A sense of
superiority was created among the ranks and file. During the 1947’s partition, we
inherited the same military, same old norms and training. Therefore, the military of
Pakistan considered it as their rightful player in to governance. Therefore, military
thinks that civilians are incompetent and they do not know how to govern and they
consider themselves efficient enough to deal with the internal issues. That’s why
military appears at floods and other such domestic issues( calling military for every
domestic affair will weaken the civilian governance ). This mind set is
destructive.(they think that are good at managing this way they keep both
authorities, civilian and military, on the other hand if a civilian is good at planning
they are not posted a general in the Army) Its not their fault they are trained like
that.
Governance is when people are provided with basic life necessities.
Bad Governance; even when the civilians ruled, 41years they have not put up an y
meaningful effort in terms of the governance. (during the earlier government of
Nawaz sharif, to end the meter reading corrupt there would assign a military
personnel with meter reader to watch over him. This gave an impression that civilian
governments are corrupt and military governments are not. This was a step in
deteriorating the civilian governance and strengthening the military governance.
Same happens when we call army for the polio drive and the election polling day
and for vaccination administration(this will solve the problem is short term but in
the longer run does it strengthen the democracy?)) and that is why people do not
protest againt the martial law because its has become a normal thing. As they has
been witnessing the army personnel serving them in the civilian governments so its
not a big deal. Police has been more effective given the required resources. Instead
of using army. Strengthen the local administration and the local policing.this will
help in eradication the insurgencey ind=side the country and being the locals they
can understand the region must better than a lieutenant from Sindh or Punjab.

Lack of visionary leadership; is our leadership visionary enough to promote the

democaratic values and principles in the country? Jumat e Islamic is the only true
democratic party in Pakistan. Leaders, instead of becoming the role- models have
lost their credibility among the masses. A visionary leader would, as much, avoid the
role of military in governance. If the political leaders have brought any positive
change in the lives of the masses, the masses would support them in the hour of
need.
Judiciary; the role of judiciary . among the four martial laws, only one had been
rejected by judiciary. The other three were legalized by it, which is an
encouragement for the martial law.

Ayub’smartial law was legalized through the DOOSO Case ,1958. In this case the
then federal court of Pakistan led by Justice Munir legalized martial law. They
term it a revolution.
In Asma Ghangir/asma jilani case.
Asma jilani case (asma Jhangir was previosu know as asma jilani, first female
president of supreme court bar), declared the martial as null and void.
o In 1972, chief justice Yaqoob Ali Khan. Butto took over, the first civilian chief
martial law administrator. According to martial law administion. Two people
were under arrested. Father of Asma Jilani, gulam jilani and altaf gohar. Wife
of altaf ghar ms nazmeen and daughter of gulam jilani , asma jilani
challenged their arrest.
o Yaqoob ali khan declared the martial law of yahaya khan unconstitutional
and declared him usurper. And all his acts were termed as illegal. These two
men were acquitted. However, this judgement did not suggested any
punishments for yahya khan.

Gen Zia’smartial law was legalized Begam Nusrat Bhutto case 1978. The
supreme court of Pakistan legalized the martial law.Doctrine of necessity.
Nusrat butto filed a case against the arrest of her husband and other arrested
with him. Abs corps (produce the body). Rejuvenated the necessity of the time
doctrine. Asn said the the Armed forces were not ony the custodians of the
outside of the borders but also has constitutional responsibilities. When there is
chaos and disorder inside, the armed forces of Pakistan cannot be silent
spectators it is their constitutional duty to intervene and restore the order.
Hence, Butto and the rest of the people were not granted bail.
Musharaf’s martial law was legalized by supreme court in syed zafar Ali shah
case 2000. Chief justice Arshad ahmed.The case is filed byt senator Zafar Ali Shah
and also the advocate of the supreme court. The five bench member made the
martial law valid according to the doctrine of necessity. As the hijacking of the
plane of the chief was chaotic provoking. But it also bounded Musharaf to
introduce democracy in the three year span. And if the constitution hinders in
the implementation of the agenda in the following three years then you have the
right to amend the constitution. Although constitution was suspended. But
supreme gave a leeway to him that they would not interfere. 19 judges did not
accept LFO so they resigned.
 Bureaucracy; they have never spoken againt the military rule or martial law because
of their vested interests. Because when military rules, bureaucracy is more powerful,
otherwise they have to work under the MNA. a DC’s social status and lively hood is
directly linked to their office. They cannot take the risk of losing their jobs. This
makes them complied to Army. Bureaucracy has always sided with Martial law.
Culture of Pakistan Pakistan’s culture is not have a liking for democracy. They are
not trained for the democracy.(Culture of total submission. Decisions in our houses
are solely autocratc, we are tough form the beginning that you should not speak
before the elders they are always right, you are not allowed to question them.
Disagreement and disrespect are treated as one) sameis replaced at country level.
We do not heed to the politics at our country level that is why when a political
leader eleceted by us is ousted by Military we are indifferent to it, ignoring our right.
Disagreement with military will make you a traitor. Army says we work in favour of
the masses (the same when like it is said about elders that they always want good
for you).
Improve governance and enforce continuity of the democracy

➢ Svsvs
➢ fvfsfgdggd

Reality check= to take the reality into consideration

Any lesson would have been learnt from Dec 16, 1971, would be a fool.
Nothing much has changed; we are still to accept the primacy of democratic institutions; of
those elected in (relatively) free and fair elections to govern without having to constantly look
over their shoulder, to second-guess those who consider themselves the real arbiters of power.
Five and half years after the 1971 tragedy rooted in the denial of a popular mandate, an elected
civilian prime minister was forcibly removed from office and later executed after a trial that
some of the judges, who heard the case at the appeals level, themselves described as a
travesty.
There were four elections whose only object seemed to be to block the elected governments
from functioning or taking decisions, as there were wiser heads elsewhere and they had to call
the shots. This is not to say the politicians did not contribute to their own downfall.
When there is no level playing field even the mightiest, most seasoned players fall and these
were mere novices in the arena with the dice heavily loaded against them. The `we know best,
what is good for us` machinations continued.
 Electoral Reforms

Countries using Countries abandoned

Australia, Belgium, Brazil, UAE, USA Norway, Netherlands, Kazakhstan,
Estonia, Philippines, India Germany, Finland

• in Brazil the EVM was evolved over a period of 30 years.

• Electoral reform bill The Election Amendment Bill, 2020, comprising 49 amendments
bulldozed by the government in the National Assembly making various amendments in
the Elections Act 2017
• Another bill – the Elections (Second Amendment) Bill, covers – the introduction of
Electronic Voting Machines (EVM)section 103 of the Elections Act 2017 would be
amended and enabling overseas Pakistanis to cast their vote from countries of residence
section c of the Elections Act 2017 would be amended
• Amendments not supported by ECP for being inconsistent with constitution/powers of
ECP – (15)
• Amendments not supported by ECP for being inconsistent with Election Act 2017 – (05)
• Amendments not supported by ECP on administrative and general grounds – (17)
• Amendments supported by ECP but with some further amendments – (08)
• Amendments supported by ECP with no objections – (27)
• between 350,000 and 400,000 electronic voting machines (EVMs)were required
• the machines would be tested against cyber attacks, the identity of the voter would remain
anonymous as information would be encrypteddf
• EVMs would operate in areas where temperature drops to 10 degrees below zero and also in
localities where mercury touches 55 degrees centigrade mark
•

➢ Points of contention
o The multimillion-dollar EVM project
▪ afa
o the reportedly insecure system of voting overseas Pakistanis
▪ fsf
o the indirect dilution of ECP authority to prepare electoral rolls by transferring
some of its constitutionally mandate functions to NADRA
▪ fs
o the delimitation of constituencies based on the number of voters rather than
total population
▪ fsgs

➢ Election commission of Pakistan concerns (chief Sikandar Sultan Raja)

o Has assessed that many proposed amendments may violate constitutional
requirements.
o It has reservation over 28 of the total 62 proposed amendments.
▪ The commission says right to vote to overseas cannot be given till
required legislation is done by Parliament regarding various practical
aspects, including whether they should have extra seats in the assembly
and what kind of procedure should be adopted for the m to vote etc.
▪ The ECP says use of EVM cannot be adopted until it is determined
whether these machines are capable of conducting free and fair
elections; whether they can operate in conditions of hot weather, load
shedding etc; how the accuracy, secrecy and transparency of votes can
be ensured; and whether without proper testing the ECP can ensure free
and fair elections with these machines.
▪ The ECP says it cannot support the amendment that requires delimitation
of constituencies to be done based on numbers of voters instead of
population as is done till now. It says it is not only against Article 51 (5) of
the Constitution, it may also result in enhancement of seats in the urban
areas due to temporary address of voters such areas wherethey reside
temporarily. It also raises another problem with grave repercussion for
federation when it says through such an amendment, the population
under 18 years may not be represented 18 years of age is essential for
 voter registration whereas one of the main components of resource
distribution is population.
▪ ECP says it cannot support the amendment which says some sections of
the original act be omitted leading to the responsibility of preparing
electoral rolls being taken away from commission and handed over to the
NADRA which works under the administrative control of the federal
government. The implication is that the preparation of the final electoral
rolls will then be under the control of an organization that reports to
executive and is not independent and impartial like ECP.
▪ It rejects the amendment which changes the present practice in which
NADRA sends data to the ECP for registration of a National Identity Card
holder as voter, and proposes that the electoral roll will be the same as
registration ID data of the NADRA. This will shift the power of registration
of voters to the NADRA though this is an exclusive power of the ECP
under Article 219 of the Constitution.
▪ It says that the proposed amendment seeks to give right of correction in
the electoral roll to the NADRA by taking it away from ECP which is
mandated by the constitution to make any correction in the rolls.
• A crucial proposed reform is that NADRA, instead of the Election
Commission of Pakistan (ECP), should prepare the voter lists.
• NADRA is technically better positioned to prepare the voter lists. All
CNIC holders being eligible voters, NADRA can generate the list with a
click using its CNIC database.
The opposition would not let NADRA have the role.
o Reasons: first, NADRAis an executive arm of the
government, therefore can be influenced by the
political party in power; second, the Constitution
empowers only the ECP to prepare the voter lists.

However, the Constitution was framed in 1973 when CNICs and even NADRAdid
not exist and holding an identity card was not compulsory to be a voter. Times
have changed. The fourth industrial revolution is underway, and nations that
refuse to benefit from technology would stand doomed.

For the ECP, what is the primary task at hand for Election 2023? Register the
eligible but as yet unregistered as voters. What is the magnitude of the task?
The number of registered voters stands at 115 million as per the ECP`s annual
report of 2020.

Reportedly, the number reached 119m by mid-June 2021. How many aged 18
and above are not yet registered as voters? Extrapolating from the population
figure of 2017, Dr. Nayab of the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics
 estimates that the population aged 18 and above now stands at 137m. Thus,
around 18m (137 minus 119) people eligible to vote are not registered as voters.
Should we let them remain disenfranchised? If not, does the ECP enjoy the
capacity and have a system in place to register these 18m as voters by 2023?
What is the present system of registration of voters? The particulars of all those
who are issued a new CNIC whether on attaining the age of 18 or otherwise, are
communicated by NADRA to the ECP. Such persons are automatically registered
as voters by the Commission without requiring them to apply to become voters.
Reportedly, since some years now, NADRA, at the time of issuance of CNIC, even
records whether a person would like to vote from his `permanent` or `present`
address. Thus, for the people issued CNICs for the first time in the recent past,
there would be no difference between the voter lists produced by NADRA and
theECP; both would be automatically registering as voters all those individuals
being issued a CNIC for the first time.

In the case of an adult who already possesses a CNIC (maybe since long) but is
not registered as a voter, he/she has to apply to the ECP to become a voter.
Such persons may not apply due to the effort or cost involved, in terms of time
as well as money. Pure lethargy could be another reason.
Again, NADRA can register such people as voters with a click, using its CNIC
database.

• The ECP said time was too short for a largescale procurement and deployment of EVMs and
imparting training to a massive number of operators, adding that it was not advisable to
introduce EVM nationwide in one go.
• lack of ballot secrecy,lack of capacity at all levels and lack of ensuring security and chain of
custody for the machines at rest and during transportation. It also pointed out that there would
be no evidence available in case of election dispute.
•
• The commission said there was an absence of dust and humid free controlled temperature
environment warehouse for storage. It said a huge learning curve was required for technical
operators, adding that there was no consensus among the stakeholders on EVM which was also
not financially feasible.
•
• It was pointed out that Germany, Holland, Ireland, Italy and Finland had abandoned the use of
EVM due to lack of security.the machines could easily be tampered. He said as many as 0.8
million EVMs would have to be procured if a decision to use these machines for elections in one
go was taken. He said it would also require a constitutional amendment.
• They include low voter turnout, low women`s turnout, misuse of state authority, election fraud,
ballot stuffing, vote buying, dishonest polling staff, misuse of state resources, etc. Significantly,
some of these problems fall in the category of pre-poll rigging, which queers the pitch long
before anyone casts a vote.
• ECP said EVM could not prevent low voters` turnout, low women`s turnout, misuse of state
authority, election fraud, electronic ballot stuffing, vote buying, the law and order situation,
dishonest polling staff, widespread political and electoral violence and abuse of state resources.

Way forward

Can we have something which satisfiesboth the government and the

opposition? Yes. Let NADRA prepare and publish the preliminary voter lists.
Objections to the list may be filed with the ECP. Any new voter proposed by the
ECPshould be added and issued a CNIC after required due diligence by NADRA, if
the person does not hold one. The ECP and NADRA are already actively
collaborating to induce people to obtain CNICs. The final list should be signed by
both the chief election commissioner and chairperson NADRA. If the PTI, PML-N,
and PPP consent, the legislature would have the numbers to amend the
Constitution for involving NADRA in developing the voter lists.

However, registering around 18m new voters can disturb the political calculus
of the parties based on biradari, clan, and dhara all essential components of
dynastic politics. On the ECP`s part, the opposition to NADRA`s role only reflects
the usual bureaucratic phenomena the greater the functions, the greater the
power, the prestige, and maybe the consequent benefits.

▪ It say it can not support the amendment that states that the order of
priority of candidates for reserved seats submitted by political parties can
be changed within three days after the election. It says it will make it
impossible for the commission to declare results 14 days after the polling
days as required by Article 244 of the Constitution.
▪ It disagrees with the amendment that proposes that enlistment of a
political party should include a list of 10,000 members instead of the
2,000 required presently. As parties from smaller provinces and those,
working in less populated areas may not be able to get these numbers
and thiswould discriminate against them whereas freedom of association
should be encouraged.
▪ It also oppose the amendment that says the clause about disqualification
under Article 62 & 63 of the constitution should have an added
explanation stating that the cutoff date for this purpose will be the date
of scrutiny and thatthis provision will take effect from Oct 2, 2017. The
ECP says a statutory provision cannot regulate a constitutional provision.
▪ Links the use of EVM with the concurrence of the political parties.
▪ Has concerns over the hacking the machines
▪ Has concerns over the misuse of the technology by the presiding officer
and voter.
 ▪
o s

➢ Government of Pakistan
o Assure the ECP that all stakeholders will be taken into consideration before
making the Bill on the electoral reforms.
o The prototype is subjected to any kind of modification before its use in the 2023
elecetions
o The voter identity has to have feeded into the machine before hand so one vote
for one person.
o Hope to get aroung the opposition parties to agreed to the idea.
o To apprise the public about the use of the EVMs.
o Mr Awan said the government did not require any constitutional amendment for
the use of EVMs or I-voting. He, however, said that they would require a
constitutional amendment for allowing the dual nationals to contest the general
elections in the country.
o He alleged that the 2013 elections were rigged as 35 per cent `Form 15 in Punjab
and mostly throughout Pakistan` were found missing as per the report written by
three SC judges. He alleged that a printing press was hired only days before the
elections. More than 92,000 thumb impressions could not be verified, he added.
o He recalled that the Supreme Court`s full bench in its verdict had declared that
every Pakistani, whether living in the country or abroad, had equal fundamental
rights.
o Fawad Chaudhry “ they could have file a contempt petition against the CEC for
refusing to implement the supreme court clear directives to use technology in
the senate electionsheld in march.
o Judiciary and ECP should not portray themselves as opposition leader
o 2023 general elections will based on and only possible after reforms there is no
other way possible
o ECP were deliberately using delay tactics so that voting machines could not be
used in the coming elections
o The remittance sent by the overseas Pakistanis played a significant role in the
country’s economy as these enabled the government to cope with a difficult
situation. It would be a great injustice if they are excluded from the country’s
political system.
o Law Minister Farogh Naseem quoted Article 222 of the Constitution and said it was the
parliament, which was empowered to make decisions about conduct of elections.

`The ECP has no jurisdiction to raise objections (on the EVMs),` said the minister while
 asking the speaker to put the motion for vote for referring the bills to a joint sitting of
the parliament.
o a pilot project should be carried out in the intervening period.
o the government and the Ministry of Science and Technology were ready to
address them.
o the governmenthad made every effort to convince the opposition on electoral
reforms, but they rejected each proposal without even reading a single word.
o About the 37 objections raised by the ECP, Mr. Faraz said 27 of them were not
about the machines but related to ECP`s own capacity, whereas the machine
developed by his ministry had already addressed the remaining 10 objections.
o voting machines be introduced in the country to ensure holding of transparent
elections. He also referred to a Supreme Court judgement on the introduction of
technology in elections.
o about time scarcity, he said two years were enough for machines production,
procurement and testing besides imparting technical training for their operation.
o production could complete within six months.
o the figure of Rs150 billion being cited as estimated expenditure to be incurred
on purchase of machines exaggerated.
o the machines did not require electricity, as their battery life was 24 hours. They
could be placed in areas with temperature below freezing point.
o Babar Awan Adviser to the Prime Minister on Parliamentary Affairs asserted that
all objections would vanish when a law was passed in accordance with the
Constitution. "No institution [ECP] is over and above the Constitution."

➢ Opposition parties
o Openly rejected the Bill
o These amendment shows the ruling party’s desire to win 2023 general elections
o Unilateral decision by the ruling party to pass the bill when the members of
opposition were absent for the hallowed arena.
o Government is attempting to blackmail the ECP and inciting the members of the
commission against the CEC.
o Opposition has termed it a “rigging machines.”
o They warned of street agitation and `clashes` in case the government got the EVM bill
passed from the joint sitting of parliament.
➢ Positive amendments
o Enhanced protections of the rights of women, minorities, and trans people.
o Enforces the transparency of documents as legislators’ statement of assets and
liability.
o It contains a number of proposals to ensure broader inclusion of relatively
marginalized segments of society such as women, non muslims minorities,
transpersons and physically handicapped person sin various aspecs of the
 electoral process. In (section 12 ) the inclusion is proposed in training and public
awareness measures. In (section 84 ) making it mandatory to extend special
assstan ce to handicapped voters by polling officials. (section 167) counting a
person as guilty of corrupt practices if he or she persuades any person to vote or
to refrain from voting on grounds of belonging to a gender alognwith other
grounds already present in the law asuch as rea;giiom ,province, community ,
race caste, biradri.
o The enlistment of the of a political party with ECP should comprise at least 20
per cent women unlike the earlier case when no such condition was included
insection 202. Section 203 of election act 2017, eearlier required that political
parties should encourage women to become member; it it now proposed to add
persons with disabilities and trans persons along with women.
o This bill seeks transparency by specifically obligating the ECP to post a variety of
information on its website. To post election candidates’ initial and finals lists by
amending section 64 and section 68.
o Through the new system will assist the ECP in developing its independent
infrastructure, data center with dedicated servers, non-nadra dependent
network, third party software and human resource capacity building. ECP will be
independent of conducting i-voting for overseas Pakistanis. Nadra’s servers and
computers will not be used in this system.

If the government does take the opposition along the controversy may escalate to a point were
holding of election itself may be jeopardized.
If the differences persisted with ECP the matter may end up in the court as it can be challenged
in the court.
➢ Pros of EVM
o Idx
o Fs
o S
➢ Cons of EVM
o If
o Fgh
o jh

➢ Analysis
o If they don`t pay taxes, they also don`t avail state services. However, they are a major
source of remittances that reduces our yawning external deficit and could also become
 a major source of investment, charity, technical expertise and policy ideas based on
their exposure abroad.
o Overseas Pakistanis, as the term goes, can be broadly classified into three categories.
The first are Pakistan Origin Card, or POC, holders who have surrendered their Pakistani
nationality but are facilitated by the Pakistani government through this card for travel
and other purposes. The second category is those who hold the National Identity Card
for Overseas Pakistanis, or NICOP, many of whom are dual nationals. This card enables
these individuals to travel with ease to Pakistan. The third category are those who are
working abroad but retain their Pakistani nationality. These three categories need to be
discussed separately in respect to provision of voting rights. Those people who have
surrendered their Pakistani nationality, pay taxes in their country of residence and are
eligible voters in the country they are now citizens of, may nothave a very strongcasefor
beingenfranchised as Pakistani voters. The dual nationality holders have also taken an
oath of allegiance to another country and therefore a case can be made against their
qualification to vote in Pakistan. Prime Minister Imran Khan is on record as having
opposed allowing dual nationals to vote in Pakistani elections when he was in the
opposition. Those Pakistanis, however, who retain their nationality and are working
abroad have the strongest case to be allowed to vote in Pakistan.
o first issue is about which elections to allow such voting in; in our case. the options are
national, provincial and local polls
o since fool-proof security is still not available for other options, most states, especially
developing ones with more issues of rigging, use physical voting. This is a security-wise
safer though logistically harder option.
o how the government hopes to pay for this technological switch. As such, there are
significant costs attached to procuring and installing the required 0.4million EVMs. Back-
of-the-envelope calculations indicate that as much as Rs70billion to Rs120bn may be
required.
o Serious doubts about the safety and reliability ofEVMs have led to many countries
abandoning the machines after initial trials. Citing such concerns, Germany`s highest
federal court declared the use of EVMs unconstitutional in 2009.
o New technologies are often introduced to the detriment of a particular section of
society. People whose jobs are taken away by new technologies often end up resisting
violently, at times.
o EVMs emerged in the West not as anti-rigging tools but efficiency-enhancing and labor-
saving devices as part of broader automation trends in society.

THE approach adopted by analysts and others for making a case against the use of
electronic voting machines (EVMs) is like someone saying in the early part of the last
century that the Wright brothers would first invent the aircraft. It would fall to the
ground after a brief flight, and then after modifications, tests, and trials, the aircraft
would evolve to its present-day form of passenger or fighter aircraft. Hundreds of
products, including cars, mobile phones, etc. being manufactured in Pakistan today did
not go through such a cycle the lessons from the experiences of others were used to
shorten the cycle significantly
 Learning from others who have successfully used EVMs, we can find solutions to
challenges such as potential hacking of EVMs, their transportation to polling booths,
ensuring the dust-free environment they need, etc after all, we do not expect EVMs in
the US and India to be hacked or corrupted by dust and humidity.
o Secrecy
▪ Let us procure the EVMs like others have done and let our relevant experts tear
apart these machines to find what is inside and how it works, and then
manufacture similar ones in the country. Nothing stops the Election Commission
of Pakistan (ECP) from establishing and owning a facility for EVM manufacturing,
and staffing it with those it can trust. If we can find the people and the will to
develop sound mechanisms for building nuclear bombs, and printing currency
notes and ballot papers in a secure environment, then we can certainly have
these `not-to-becompromised` mechanisms for EVMs too.
o Transparency
▪ ECP ownership of the entire chain that would manufacture the EVMs would
solve many issues EVM software being installed by ECP employees themselves
can counter the argument that the software is unobservable, that there is lack
of transparency and that installation depends on vendors. It would allow the
ECP to follow global standards.
o Cost
▪ Have we ever estimated the cost to the nation of unfair elections and
allegations of rigging, protests, dharnas,judicialcases, and above all having rulers
for whom the people did not vote? If EVMs make a significant dent in rigging
then their benefits far outweigh the cost in financial terms of manuf acturing
and using them.
o Consensus
▪ The democracy we champion asks for the will of the majority and does not
require consensus. Secondly `consensus` remains undefined. Is it the will of all
registered political parties or the parties represented in the National Assembly
only? Should we take on board smaller parties represented only in the
provincialassemblies? What about would-be independent candidates? They are
also stakeholders in the polls. The definition of consensus can be enlarged to
take any meaning from it and suit any interest.

What if almost all political parties agree on using EVMs but party Y with just one
per cent of the seats in the Assembly decides to play spoiler? Should we wait for
its assent? While trying to define the term, we realise that aiming for consensus
on EVMs or any poll reform is impractical; the democratic principle of `majority
rules` is the only practical option to aim for. Let us not forget that our National
Finance Commission decides by consensus and its history is replete with
deadlocks.

Hypothetically, there could be two reasons for any political party, say X, to
oppose the EVMs. One, X feels that EVMs would be manipulated to its
 disadvantage, and two, the advantage that X enjoys in rigging the manual
process would be of little value if EVMs are used. In either case, it is a question
of trust. As political parties have condencein neither the present system nor
EVMs, `lack of trust` cancels out in the equation
o Other
▪ If all EVMs to be used are compromised then the manipulation would be
significant and systemic. The ECP`s ownership of the entire chain of
manufacturing, storing and using of EVMs would to an extent address the
potential of systemic manipulation. What remains is the potential of
manipulation by the ECP staff itself the political parties in the opposition seem
to trust the ECP for now and the ruling coalition is already in favour of the EVMs
for election 2023 the fear of systemic manipulation becomes insignificant if the
ECP were to own the entire chain.
o Bulldozed the amendments in the election act of 2017 on 17 November 2021 in joint
session..
o Electoral fraud here is not restricted to the actual polling process.
Vote manipulation starts long before polling day and continues till the government is
formed. Surprisingly, there have been less complaints of vote fraud during polling.
o In view of such issues and the huge upfront and recurring costs involved in the
maintenance and storage of EVMs a committee on the use of voting machines had
recommended a decade ago that electronic voting should be adopted in a phased
manner.
o The parliament and the provincial assemblies were barred under Article 222 of the
Constitution from passing any law that has the effect of taking away or abridging any of
the powers of the chief election commissioner or the commission itself.

Single National Curriculum

Aims “to ensure that all children have a fair an equal opportunity to receive high-quality
education”
It has come into effect for classes Pre1 – Grade 5. And the incumbent govt. has committed to
implement it on all levels up to class Xii by March 2023.
What it requires?

• Delivering world class curriculum

• Modern classrooms
• Modern campus facilities
• A conducive environment, which could encourage inquiring minds and free
debate.
• Adequate budget allocation

How can it be done?

• Making public schools more competitive

• No text- book could be published without an NOC from the Punjab
Curriculum Text Book (PCTB).
Woes hindering its implementation

• The issue of text book production. Some clerics opposes the printing of
human anatomy and the reproductive system diagrams in the text books.
• Sindh has grievances regarding this matter and is still not on-board.

Social issues of Pakistan

Unemployment
The latest Labour Force Survey reports the unemployment rate at 6.9 per cent. This may not sound
alarmingly high but there is much to discuss behind the numbers. According to LFS, unemployment is
highest among the15-29-year age bracket, indicating a lack of and barriers to entrylevel jobs. Of the
total unemployed, 21.52pc have no formal education while 78.48pc are literate, indicating that
educated youth are more likely to have difficulties finding jobs.

➢ definition
Youth bulge and geography of a country can become either an asset or a liability
if not utilized properly . 60% of the population is under 30 years of age.
o Unemployement can be defined as a situtaition where people do not find work
to earn their lively hood a=or it can be referred to a situation where people are
willing to work but are unable to find a job.
➢ types
o structural un-employment
▪ the un-employment where the skills sets required by the employers and
the skills sets possessed by the workers are miss-matched. In that case
the lay off workers are called structural unemployment. E.g. introduction
of advance machinery I the company.
o Seasonal unemployment
▪ The rural population, mostly, work in the season where a specific
product is in need. It occurred due to the certain unproductive activity of
a particular nosiness. Which means some people lose their jobs in the
slack season of that particular activity. E.g. ice factory. sugar mills.
o Frictional unemployment
▪ Before getting another job when you leave the current job. the time in
between when an individual is temporarily out of job.
o Cyclical unemployment
▪ This occurs due to the depression or recession in the market where the
demand of the product goes down resultantly the employers lay off the
staff to meet the expenses. E.g. the current pandemic.
▪
o Underemployment
▪ It refers to a situation where a person is employed way belowtheir level
of expertise and education. E.g. A PhD degree doing a job of a salesman.
o Voluntary unemployment
▪ The biggest chunk in Pakistan. When people don’t want to work, or they
decide to remain unemployed because of their own will.

➢ causes
o the universities are producing job oriented youth not a business oriented
graduates. This way the job market gets Clough. Business create other jobs.
o People of Pakistan are no having the skill sets that are required in market. No
liaison between market and educational institute. Short term policies .it only last
till the next elections.
o Population explosion.
o Technological advancement. The more automation in the industries the less
labour is required.
o Unchecked Rural – urban migration.
o Lack of technical institutes. That could make individual self-employed or starts a
small-scale house based industries. Conventional education do not guarantee
employment
o Meager FDI.Less jobs. development of the Special economic zones is an effort to
capture FDI.
 o Lack of capital. People want to do business but has no capital. No education
Loans are provided by the government. No easy access/ cumbersome process of
acquiring loans.
o Nepotism/lack of meritocracy. Earlier, senior judges would appoint new judges
so they would appoint their relatives
o Backwardness of society/ flaws in social fabric. They do not let their children
work. Especially girls. Due to societal restraints, most of the graduate female are
not allowed to work.
o
➢ effects
o Crime rate increase.
o Serge in violence. Covid has the devastating effect of the increase in violence
o Terrorism increase. ISIS is the most successful organization. They target the
unemployed individuals and they pay them to fight for them.
o Poverty increase, begging.
o Psychological anxieties increase.
o Suicidal rate increases. When they see others of their doing-well they stoop into
the depression.
o Economy of the country is effected. Less GDP is produced.
o Other social evils. Drug addicts.
o Brains drain. People leave for abroad to fetch lucurative opportunities.
o People beci=ome less effective. As more effective individuals are force to occupy
less worthygobs. Phd soclars applies for the clerk jobs.
➢ Mitigation
o Market- educational institute liaison. To connect graduates to the new
requirements of the market.
o Business incubation centers––individuals having new business ideas and having
no idea of how to implement it. The business men in these centers modifies
these ideas of how to best work. And some industrialist there are ready to invest
in your ideas at a per cent share. E.g. plan nine in arfa karim tower.
o Small and medium enterprises–– more no.of these enterprises more people are
engaged in it than a single large enterprise. And there is also less automation so
people are no unemployed. Further, it decrease the prices as there is
compitions. When you have multiple choices the prices automatically declines.
o Easy credit facilities for businesses.
o Technical education. People will have specific education and people can become
self employed.
o Invest in the construction industry as many other sub industries are connected to
it.
o Increase Internships programs increases the familiarity with the market.
o Curbing corruption.
 o People do not work where they are posted. So that department never prosper.
o a) Skill mapping and one-onone counselling for problem identification and retraining; b)
subsidising SMEs for training, instead of hiring, youth; c) inclusion of pre-vocational
courses in high school.

Water crisis

Major under construction dams

1. Diamer Basha Dam.
a. Completion 2028 -2029
b. Power generation 4500 MW
c. Water storage 8.1 MAF
d. Land Irrigation 1.23 Million Acres
2. Mohmand Dam
a. Completion 2025
b. Power generation 800 MW
c. Water storage 1.29 MAF
d. Land Irrigation 1,60,000 Acres
3. Dasu Hydropower project stage-1
a. Completion 2025
b. Power generation 2160 MW
c. Water storage 8.1 MAF
d. Land Irrigation 1.23 Million Acres
4. Kachhi cana phase-1 (fr)
363 KM long from taunsa barrage on Indus to dera bugti. 306 in Punjab & 57 in
Balochistan.
a. Land Irrigation 72,000 Acres

5.
6. Sfgsggs
7. Sdg
8. Gsgd
9.

The first step to solve a problem is to realize that there is a problem.

In case of water, we have never considered it as a crisis. Thereis very little awareness regarding
this.
According to the UNDP report in 2016:
As of 1952, the fresh water reservoir was at 5260 cubic meter per capita.
In 2016, this plunged to a record low level of 1000 cubic meter per capita. It is considered as
the water stressed level and we will be soon reaching to the another devastating levels of water
scarcity.
And if Pakistan continues to waste the water at the same level they would reach at the level of
860 by 2025, which is water scarce. But due to the covid the water consumption have had
increased in the house hold hence it is more likely that the alarming level suggested by the
UNDP would be achived earlier than tha marked date.

In household we utilize excessive water.

The inter-provincial clash over the water distribution.

The first ever national water policy was finalized on 26April 2018. On the account of the UNDP’s
report of 2016. It was successful in building consensus over the integrated water resource
management. No water issue had to be solved until all the stake holders are part of the
meeting.
➢ Issues
o Water theft and water seepage.National water policy states that 50 % of
Pakistan’s water does not reach the end level for which it has been intended.
Unlined canals are the major cause.
o Less water storage capacity. According to the international standards a state
should have water reserves for at least 120 days. Pakistan has merely 28 days. In
case of less rainfall the water provided is from the reserves.
▪ Rabi season 2021-22 conveyance loss at 2.044 MAF and about 0.052MAF
flows into the sea.
o Less research and innovations in the field of water. Techniques related to water
reduction and effective water utilization.
o Less water related degree programmes. Only handful of institutions offers
programs in water. While US and Canada has major portion of these degrees and
subjects.
o Non-availability of water scarce seeds to grow in areas with less water.
o No education and awareness regarding crop rotation. A single crop will utilize
one type of nutrients hence it will go waste. As different crop use different
nutrients and crop yield will Improve.
o No platform available for the discussion of water related issues. IRSA only
discusses the distribution. Not the issues related to any bone of contention.
o Need of consensus on water issues. Mexico city passed their water
conservationlaws in 1917.
 o Water recycling techniques. And government should, reinforce the recycling
plant by granting and cessation of the licenses.
o Excessive pumping further deepens the ground water level.
➢ Steps taken by the government
o Diamir Basha dam, 2028 completion date. Initial cost $ 4 billion now is estimated
at $ 14 billion . will add 5400 Mega watts elec. Will add 604 MAF water storage
capacity.Pakistan wastes 46 MAF water into sea due to lack of stora . this will
increase 15 days of back up.
o Water metering pilot programmes have started in major citites like Karachi,
isalmabad, Lahore.
o Lining of canals
o Intergrated water resource management is essential for the consensus.
o

➢ solutions
o Large water reservoirs vs small dams or artificial/ man-made lakes.
▪ Large water reservoir are expense, time consuming, dangerous, disturbs
the eco system of the area.
▪ Artificial/ man-made lakes.
• Lake Kariba, largest man made lake in africa between Zambia and
Zimbabwe
• Lake Nasir the biggest lake in Egypt.
• Canada, land of lakes.
o Utilization of more advanced techniques. Like drip irrigation, sprinkle irrigation
tunnel farming.
o Water conservation awareness drives to make people apprise of the menace of
the threat. In schools and colleges. Through media for adults
o Certainty of punishment of punishment for the transgressors. More necessary
than the Severity of punishment. (people say that in heinous crimes it is
necessary to have a capital punishment but the urgency of the certainty of the
punishment is more important) in women related only 4% of the cases are
apprehended. And charged with penalities. Qatar and Iceland have kept the
records of the DNAs of its citizens. To track the criminals effectively
o Budget should be channelized for the Research and innovation purposes.
o Water conservation laws as created by mexico city. Ban on private pumping.

The WMO, almost a decade ago, developed a Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)
for mainstreaming climate science into decision-making at all levels of governance.
 Despite international support and growing climate vulnerabilities, Pakistan has not
developed its National Framework for Climate Services. The presence of an NFCS will
provide an institutional mechanism to coordinate, facilitate and enhance collaboration
among national institutions to improve, jointly produce, deliver and use sciencebased
climate projections and services.

Some regional countries like China and India who developed robust national frameworks
have successfully accessed global science and technology, as the GFCS seeks to build on
continued improvements in climate forecasting to increase access to the best climate data.

A potential first user of climate services is the National Disaster Risk Management Fund,
now managed by the Planning Commission. NDRMF is currently managing with PMD a large
hydromet project designed to modernise the PMD and improve its service delivery to
various sectors.

WMO report can help Pakistan set the direction of its journey and set its eyes on eight
ambitions: 1) no one is surprised by a flood, 2) everyone is prepared for drought, 3) hydro-
climate and meteorological data support food security, 4) high-quality data supports
science, 5) science provides a sound basis for operational hydrology, 6) generation of
thorough knowledge of water resources, 7) water quality is known, and 8) hydrological
information supports Pakistan`s sustainable development.

• After the 2005 earthquake and established Erra, followed by the National Disaster Management
Authority (NDMA), supported by provincial set-ups or PDMAs. The district disaster management
authorities (DDMA) that were to be set up under the act exist only in official files. They have
been notified but not resourced.
• Pakistan already has more than 7,000 glaciers out of which an alarming 3,044 have become
glacial lakes. Many others have been marked as a potential risk due to rising temperatures. As
they melt, they can burst their banks and flood downstream. This phenomenon is called glacial
lake outburst flood and results in changed periods of water flow, having a major impact on
water availability for agriculture or hydropower. The recently formed Attabad Lake has already
become a tourist destination as an example of disaster-induced tourism.

Energy crisis
➢ definition
o
o vx
➢ types
o Xcv
o Xcv
➢ causes
o Ggjhgh
o
 ➢ effects
o Adsfs
o
➢ Mitigation
o
o
➢ sg
➢ Sfsfs

Covid-19 in changing the World Order

World order= the internal laws, norms and rules.

Revisionist state= the state that knows the rules but purposefully avoids the international laws,
norms and rules.

Irrational/ roog state= the state that has no idea about the rules and norms. But states are
always rational.
International laws are forged depending upon the international system. If there is a sole super
power then that system is called uni-polar system. In a uni-polar world the dos and norms will
be different. If the world is Bi-polar. Then the rules will be different. Similarly in a multi polar
world rules will be different. US says that our system rules based international order.
Before cold war there the world war bi-polar but after the cold war it has become a uni-polar.
Americans dictating everybody what the rules are.

How Covid has effected the world order.

Sprouted from the wuhan and prolifereated through outh the globe. The world decide to lock
down to curb the spreading of this contagious virus. Consequently, it had major economic
impacts. The impacts varied from state to state and region to region. US suffered the most.
With record number of cases and death followed by Brazil. The most important region effected
is Europe.
Factor led to global economic recession.

• Closure of offices, industries and businesses.

• Transportation were effected.
• Tourism were halted.
• Demands nose-dived.
• Global economy contracted by around 5%.
• All the great world economieswere effected US, Europe, India. Except China. Because
they managed to contain it.
➢ Chinese economy grew while other’s contracted tilted the balance of power more
towards china. It was the fall of others and rise of china.
➢ Another impact was that the Chinese image, by developing two WHO recognized
vaccine, positively improved. Previously, only the US was seen as the savior of the world
now the shift was evident.
➢ Vaccine distribution. World has seen that Chinese are willing to donate the vaccine to
the world, world largest donor of vaccine, while the west retained their vaccines for
themselves. This has show that the west is mean and feathers their own nest. This sent
a message to the world that china is with you while US is not. The world is looking to
China for help not to US. Chinese soft power increased. Even during the pandemic,
China donated the PPPs and other medical gear.
➢ The Chinese abrupt recovery and the others’ slow and incapability to recover from the
Covid pandemic challenged the notion that the democratic government is the best
government. Negated the argument of Francis Fukuyama in 1988 that the west has
discovered the ideal governance system, democracy, and it will remain forever,
unchallenged.
➢ Vaccine administration of chines has proved to be fastidious.
This expedites the shifting of the world from uni-polarity to multi polarity and the rules
that the US established are being challenged and are being replaced by china.
To cover this damage, the US is propagandizing the virus as the Chinese dvirus.

Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) (jeedah) (Yousef

al Othaiman)
Reasons for coming into being

• Immediate reason; attempt to burn al Aqsa mosque by extremist jewish settlers. As it’s
the third holiest place. Islamist summit was called in Rabat, morocco. And it was decide
to establish as organization
• Long term reasons;
 o The concept of Ummah and Pan Islamism. The idea that Muslim of the world
must develop harmony and unity among themselves. Initially it was presented by
o The transformation of Palestinian conflict and the failure of Arab states,Arab
league. And Arabs realized that they alone cannot challenge Israel.
Charter

• There is a summit. Every 3 year. Policy making. There are foreign ministers.
• It’s a general organization. Political , economic and social issues faced by Muslim states
and communities.

Failures
o It failed to bring security and harmony to the muslim world and play any role. Eg.
▪ Between Muslims; Iran-Iraq war, 1969 saudi and yemen, Iraq- Kuwait
invasion. Azerbaijan
▪ Muslim and non-muslims; Afghan war. Armenia- Azerbaijan, Us invasion of
Iraq, kargil war, Israeli war on Palestine, Israel lebnon war 1978, 2005,
▪ Civil wars; Syria , yemen, chechnia, bosnia, Kashmir, Kosovo, Libya, sudan,
Somalia, rohyngia muslims, Uighur muslims.

o Not played any role to curb the sectarian wars.

o No rule in curbing Islamophobia.
o No role to help economic development.
▪ Only developed the Islamic investment bank
▪ failed to promote tourism, trade, investment
o Cultural
▪ No sports events.
o No efforts for poverty alleviating
o No role in Covid vaccine
o Some contributions in Education
▪ IIUI
Why it failed
o Divergent strategic interests
▪ The muslim states are much diverse in all spheres be it geography,
religiously, culturally that they cannot align their strategic interest.
Therefore, they pursue different foreign policies. Lebanon. The most diverse
Muslim state.
o Sectarian fault lines keeps it divide
 ▪ Saudi and Iran
▪ Relations are inversely propositional to each other.
o Economic underdevelopment
▪ Most of the OIC member are poor and under developed. Therefore they are
too weak internally to develop regional integration
o Arab –non-Arab division
▪ Arab states are closer to Israel and non-Arabs at loggers head with Israel.
▪ 48th OIC meeting was happening in Islamabad and stressing on Israel
issue while abdel fateh al sisi and Dubai ruler was meeting with Israel.
▪ Dubai wants to invest in the Kashmir region. Which is disputed region
between a Muslim and non- Muslim country.
▪ Struggle for the leadership of Muslim world
▪ Different Muslimstates are struggling to gain the leadership role and claim
the leading role. Instead of cooperation they compete with each other to
exert their hegemony.

o Some scholar think that can an organization based on religion be effective enough.
o Question on harmony
▪ Is this harmony enough to change our strategic interests?
▪ The competence for the OIL market.
▪ Has this organization based on economic interests it would have been
more successful. E.g Saudi would never sacrifice it trade with India for
the sake of Kashmiri Muslims.
Shanghai cooperation Organization
(SCO)secretary general (Zhang Ming) uzbek’s
chair of SCO for 2021-22 president saukat
mirziyoyv
Cheater-8 of the UN charter allow other states to form organization as long as these
organization follow theUN principles.
Shanghai 5 (2001)= Russia , China, Tajikistan, Kirgizstan, Kazakhstan. Later Uzbekistan
was included.
Came in to being for the purpose to curb terrorism after 9/11. With the war in
Afghanistan, US started global initiatives and coalitions to counter terrorism. Dubbed as
Asian NATO. A region coalition was established to secure the region. an anti- US alliance.
Shingai 6=was called SHO
Pakistan became observer in 2005 and a full member longn with India in 2017.
Pakistan & India were added in june 2017.
• Hierarchy
 o Head of the state forum= presidents of all states participate but Pakistan
and India send its prime minister. because the chief executive of Paksitan
is PM while in the rest of the states the chief executive is the president.
This is the highest decision maiking and policy making . it comprises of
the head of the government. In which, the rest of the states send their
PM while Pakistan& Indiasend its one of the senior Minister.
o lower than that there is council of foreign ministers
o different directorates
• Charter of SCO
Supreme document or the constitution, it defines its objectives, its role and
structure.
• Aims& objectives
o Main objective is to collaborate regarding security of member states.
o Aims at establishing political collaboration and economic collaboration of
the states.
• Failure
o Although SCO was established as a regional security organization. But in
the wage of US’ Indo-Pacific policy the SCO has strategic difference s
among the member states. Their core interest collide with each other. As
the US’ Indo- pacific policy is all about to contain china and has to be
done by the key regional allies. China is declared as the enemy no. one.
Hence, India was chosen as one of the key allies. India’s tilt towards US
and China and Russia’s sway from the US has put the success of the
organization in jeopardy. India stands alone in SCO and therefore, it
stands isolated. There are two apt examples; in 2020 SCO meeting hosted
by Russia. India (ajit doval) demanded the removal of the map portrait
behind the Pakistani National Security Advisor (IIOJ was written on the
map).Russia refused and therefore, India boycotted it. Nobody else
boycotted. On another account in 2020, India refused to participate in
the annual counter terrorism exercises due to its escalation with China
and Pakistan.
o Everybody wants to attract India, because they have economic relation
with it, India is part of the QUAD, i.e. counter to SCO and is part of the
SCO. Hence major
➢ 16 NSAs (PAK=dr. yusuf, india=Ajit doval )meeting held in Dushanbe, Tajikistan
th

on 23rd June 2021.

➢ 20th SCO’s council of Heads of States 17th September 2021.
➢ Mustaqillik maudoni (independence squar) in Tashkan, Uzbekistan. Prsidenctail
system; Shavkat Mirziyoyev. PM Abdullah arpuf. Currecncy;Uzbekistani So’m
➢
 SDGs & MDGs
Falls under planning commission. And they execute through DMGs; DCs ACs.

Most of these fall under provincial after 18th amendment.

Why this idea was developed to determine this goals.
The Un support the state according to the HDE. The state ranking lower get the most funds.

• State is the primary unit of international relation. State develop, sate become weak.
They never focus on the individuals of the state. State is considered as a whole. Trickle-
down effect, as state grows people get the benefit. State was the end and people were
the mean.
• In 1970s, some economics challenged this idea. Although, state hold a significant value
but we should not ignore the people living in it. From economic growth to economic
development. Earlier, there was no concept of such a thing that if GDP of country is
soaring equally is the individual getting benefit from it.
o Economic development is the growthof the GDP as well as the socio- economic
development of the people. Life expectancy, poverty. Etc. Human development;
people were taken as a whole. Regional disparities were not considered.
• HDE ranking , pak ranks 107.
• People asked questions that why not people as individual not important and why not
they are taken into consideration. Communism talks about about collective
development t.Liberalism, championed by the francis fokoyama, it started focusin on
individualism. Individual liberty is important. His/her rights are imporrant. From human
security we moved towards the comcept of huma security. And for the first time this
term was used by the UNDP in 1994.
o It published its annual report, Human Development Report, in the report for the
first time they used this concept of human security. Each individual faces seven
major threats in every nuke and corner of the world. Different threats are
present in different areas.
▪ Health security issues. State is acing to even care for the small fraction of
population .e.g. every child everytime polio drops.
▪ Food security
▪ Genocide
• States were advised to counter these threats. At certain level and how UNDP can help.
For this purpose MDGs (Millennium Development Goals) were defined. The purpose of
these were to define goals& to ensure human security and human development.Bottom
up approach; Strengthen the individual and the states will automatically get developed.
• There were goals and each goal has sub goals.
• MDGs also provide broader principle to achieve those goals. Each state develop form
strategies to achieve these goals with collaboration with the UN DP.
• MDGs GOALS. These have sub goals.
o Eradication of poverty and hunger
▪ Employment, inflation, food. Calories intake is the standard for
measurement of poverty. 2.5 dollars are enough in Pakistan to buy two
meals a day.
o Achieving universal primary education
o Promoting gender equality and empower women
o Reduce child mortality
o Improve maternal health
o Combat AIDS, malaria and other diseases.
o Ensure environment sustainability
o Global partnership for development / promoting Multilateralism
• To achieve these the UN will work with the states to develop strategies.
• Failures
o The reason for the failure in achieving these goals in Pakistan was the transition
of the Autonomy form the federal to the provincial.
o Because of terrorism , Paksitan failed considerably on all of the prescribed
goals. We are not even the half way in achieveing the goals.
• Who would fund them and the capacity build in of those who would implement these.
resources to carryout. We sought financial help from UN agencies and other
international institutions. Asian development bank and other lending institutions.
Financial support in the form of AID and loans.
SDGs

• Why SDGs were defined.when states like Pakistan failed to achieve MDGs. In 2015, UN
introduced SDGs.
• The new knowledge of these goals were found out. Internal evaluation led to changes in
goals
• 17 goals
o No poverty
▪ No person should be poor
o Zero hunger
▪ Is food available, access to food, supply chain of food. Even if you not
poor that does not mean you can find food
o Good health and wellbeing
o Quality education
▪ The educaton that is epactful. That promotes political thinking and
knowledge.
 o Gender equality
▪ Incultion of women in every sphere of life.
o Clean water and sanitation
▪ Lack of access to the clean water . 80 per cent of the disease are water
borne.
o Affordable and clean energy
▪
o Decent work. And economic growth
▪ Promote GDPs but it should not undermine the health of the workers.
o Industry innovationand infrastructure
o Reduce inequalities/ regional disparities
▪ South Punjab is underdeveloped and north is more developed
o Sustainable cities and communities
▪ Urban planning.
o responsible consumption and production
▪ No wastage of resources
o Climate action
o Life below water
o Life on land
o Peace, justice and strong institutions
▪ Necessity of human
▪ Peace; absence of violence and absence of threat of violence.
▪ Peace can be achieved if the institution are strong, strong means
organized not powerful so that they donot become tyrannical.
o Partnerships on these goals
▪ To make the achievement more likely. Partnership of the state can avoid
the plight of its masses.
• Asia and the Pacific region is expected to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by
2065 more than three and a half decades behind the original goalpost, reveals a United Nations
report released on march 17, 2022.

Progress on 17 SDGs has tremendously slowed down and with each passing year, the goals are
moving further out of reach for the region, says the `2022 Asia and the Pacific Sustainable
Development Goals Progress Report` prepared by the UN Economic and Social Commission for
Asia and the Pacific (UN-ESCAP).

The progress gap for achieving the SDGs, adopted in 2015, grows wider and the prospects of
achieving the goals now extends decades beyond 2030.

In 2017, the estimate d year to achieve the SDGs was 2052, and by 2021, the estimated year had
increased to 2065,thereportsays.
 The flagship annual publication, produced byUN-ESCAP in partnership with ten other UN
agencies, says the challenges of achieving the SDGs in the region have been magnified in recent
years by an increase in the frequency and intensity of human made crises and natural disasters,
as well as the challenges of responding to the Covid-19 pandemic.

Although the climate crisis has become more acute, alarmingly, the region has regressed on
• responsible consumption and production (Goal 12)
• Climate action (Goal 13).
While headway has been made on some of the targets dealing with
• industry, innovation, and infrastructure (Goal 9)
• affordable and clean energy (Goal 7)’
They still fall short of the pace required to meet the 2030 Agenda.
Across the region, progress has been very slow or even stagnant on
• quality education (Goal 4),
• gender equality (Goal 5),
• clean water and sanitation (Goal 6),
• decent work and economic growth (Goal 8),
• sustainable cities and communities (Goal 11),
• and life below water (Goal14).

Pakistan experienced anegative growth rate of output per worker in 2019 when the report
measured the pace of progress on decent work and economic growth (Goal 8). Income poverty
in Pakistan was relatively low (3.9 per cent) and at the same time multidimensional poverty was
high (38.3pc).

Migrant crisis
• A total of 4,404 migrants perished or vanished in attempts to reach Spain last year, up from
2,170 in 2020, according to Spanish non-governmental organisation Caminando Fronteras
 1. Must know Economic Terminologies
Jargons Absolute Advantage: The use of less resources(given that ceteris paribus) per unit of
output than other producers; Same output with lessor resources. it may be due to land
quality or cheap labor etc. China has absolute advantage over US.
Ceteris paribus: all other things being equal.
Balance of payments: It is an overall statement of economic transection of a country
with the restof the world; Balance Link with the world; Pak always in crisis and hence IMF
(lender of the last resort, from 1958. 22nd package) helps in defaulting on balance of
payment; Impacts foreign exchange; Imports, exports etc. Balance of payment has 2
accounts:
a. Capital Account: Includes inward/outward FDI, bonds floated by govt. in international
market
b. Current Account:
i. Trade Account: Balance of Trade (Imports/Export); Only this can sustain stability of CA
ii. Worker Remittance: Roshan Digital Account (keeping dollars with gov on interest etc)
worked along with Covid impact; Also included charities; Hundi Hawala is informal
channel (doesn’t come in worker remittance
Sustainability is that you progress from the current status in the coming years or at
least stay at the current level with recession.
Balance of payment crisis: Unsustainable fall in foreign exchange reserve that you
default; Iceland, Greece etc defaulted in financial crisis of 2008
Balance of Trade: Trade is; imports and exports only; Pak has 22B dollars deficit
Bond: An instrument in financial market which is issued to lender by the borrower when
borrower need money (it is a signed document); It’s a loan with interest; Nations float this
in international market to borrow money
Budget Deficit: Financial statement showing income & total expenditure of government;
We have deficit here aswell
Capital Flight: Large and sudden movement of capital from a country due to uncertainty
in country and foreigner coming to know that govt. is going to tax heavily, liquidating
assets and sending in foreign accounts
Opportunity Cost/ trade off: the cost of the best alternative forgone.
Comparative Advantage:Less opportunity cost than other countries providedceteris
paribus ; Our comparative advantage is that we let our labor make less expensive
products (clothes etc.), If American labor is put to make clothes then it cost them more
bcz they can make aircrafts, so we have comparative advantage in this domain
Competitive advantage: Unique advantage that give you edge over competitor
Devaluation: Fall in price/value of currency in terms of another currency; Reasons: One
is Deliberately done by state to encourage export (exporters will get more money in pkr,
also importer will get to pick more pkr value for same 1 dollar).state bank also devalues
pkr to discourage the buyers of dollar in order to keep the dollars reserve maintain in tehe
account (1=155 is more expensive to citizens than 150 hence, locals will not change their
rupees to dollars). When dollar reserves are falling due to high demand of dollars; IMF
says take it to real value, devalue when dollars are less.
Currency depreciation was there in most programmes and was unavoidable due
to fast falling reserves. However, it failed to increase exports and reduce imports.
So the rupee has fallen 80pc-plus since 2010-11, but imports have still increased
by 50pc-plus while exports over these 10 years have shown near-zero growth
Exchange Rate: 1 dollar = 150
Fiscal Policy: Money raised vs spent policy;
Revenue: Tax revenue: sales tax, etc.non-taxrevenue: PIA, Railway, this doesn’t come in
fiscal policy;
Expenditure: Defence, infrastructure, pensions, salaries; Tax evasion: Giving less tax thru
manipulation; Tax escape: Completely not giving tax; Deficit is completed thru borrowing
Tax evasion: Legal, through chartered accountants by adding depreciations of assets etc.
Pakistan is affected by it.
Tax avoidance: illegal,completely not paying the taxes. You do not document your
assets.
GDP: Gross Domestic Product; National level total production of a state; USA is the
biggest; $19T and Pak is $300B; Tells how productive your economy is; Bangladesh: $350B
Real GDP: Inflation adjusted GDP; Why: increase in inflation increases nominal GDP
Nominal: Without inflation
GNP: Gross National Productin a financial year - Pak July 1st to June 30th. GDP +
Remittances in – remittances out. Production by Pakistani nationals anywhere.
Hyper Inflation: Inflation is persistent rise in price of goods (tangible) and services
(intangible); Hyper is very high rise in inflation, around 50% increase per month
Indirect Tax: Tax on items; GST etc. Can increase poverty
Direct Tax: On Income and properties
Laissez-faire: Free Markets where governments don’t intervene in market (where buying
selling takes place); No market worldwide is free; In free market, when suppliers become
strong, they try to monopolize therefore governments always interfere to protect and not
make any public good exclusive and increase good & discourage bad practices
Monetary Policy: Exchange rate determination by Central Bank (State bank in Pak,
Federal Reserve of America, people bank of china); Controls exchange rate, also control
Inflation through Interest rate. Keeping money in Pocket increases inflation (more money
in market) therefore state bank offers more interest for fixed deposits encouraging
masses to deposit their savings (this is known as tightening of monetary policy):
Loosening (into people’s pocket) is decreasing interest. When borrowing is needed to
increase to bring economic growth, let people lend and increase industrialization. We
hear living is expensive in lot of cities because there is inflation but they are high growing
economies hence have high earnings. This is the trade off the politicians make to either
win political acceptability, political actors seek to survive, or to tighten the policy and get
the economy back on track, this way they will lose the political acceptability. That is why
state banks should be independent and it should take decision according to the
incumbent situation not according to the will of the politics.
National Debt: Debt taken from nationals & foreigners
Per Capita Real GDP: Divided by pop but different age groups are used with assigned
d/f weightages; Indicator of living standard
Stagflation: Slow economic Growth due to high unemployment and inflation high;
Happened in Germany after World War; In Iraq after US attack
Liquidity trap:when uncertainty forces people to hoard cash bringing economies
to a standstill.
 Pakistan’s Fiscal Space: Tax net small; Avoidance is unprecedented ; Evasion hurts but is still legal;
financial Tax filer in Pak: 1% bcz low trust on govt. no good tangible projects schools etc. visible;
Low tax to GDP ratio; Writ of state is needed to be improve; In US, Internal revenue
Issues
service is stronger than PAS
Balance of Payment: We are not looking at comparative/absolute advantage and hence
our exports are low; growth not possible without exports.
High Population growth: Which is not in commencement with GDP; 4% economic growth,
2.4% population growth; In 2050; We would be 40crore a lot of them would be
unemployed criminals
Crowding out of Investment: People taking out money from Pakistan.
Lack of entrepreneurship: Due to crowding out of investment and growing risk averse
nature; No nurturing of risk averse nature.
Meritocracy: Not putting right people at right place; One day PAS officer is in health
department, next day in commerce; He/she knows everything; Politically used; Personal
interests supersede national interests
Extra Info • Overseas Pakistanis remitted record $29.4 billion during 2020-21, helping the
country meet its widening trade deficit and expected current account deficit in
the last month of the just-ended fiscal year. State bank of Pakistan.
• record high inflows of workers` remittances during FY21 have been driven by
proactive policy measures by the government and SBP to incentivise the use of
formal channels, curtailed cross-border travel in the face of Covid-19 infections,
altruistic transfers to Pakistan amid the pandemic, and orderly foreign exchange
market conditions,` said the SBP.
• Technical degree holders are appearing which is not good for the state
• International lender of last resort: IMF
• India didn’t go to IMF after 1990; they have some issues like pak but they progressed;
We went 22 times total
• Pak financial/ year: 1st July to 30th June (Currently FY20-21, Next: FY21-22)
• China has surpassed US in terms of real GDP; In nominal terms: It is US

TO BE CONTINUE :-

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) fell by about 29 per cent during the financial year FY21 compared to the
previous year. the biggest investor in FY21 was China. Hong Kong was the second biggest investor in
Pakistan.

KEEP the dollar flying (ie keep it relatively expensive). Why? Why not keep the rupee flying (ie keep it
relatively overvalued)?

Price of commodity is determined through demand and supply of a product. Similar is the case with
dollar.

Imagine you are a businessman with two choices.

The first choice is to start an import business. The second is the export business. Which one will you
choose in our country? Import or export? Many will choose (and are still choosing) the import business
because it requires little investment and is much easier to set up. Very few will choose the export
business because it requires huge investment and is difficult to set up. Is it too difficult to see this
ground reality? This is one of the primary reasons to keep the exchange rate more favourable for
exporters. Keeping it consistently more favourable for exporters also helps producers, thereby
promoting industrial growth.

For decades and beginning in July 1949, hardly eight months after the death of the Quaid our
policymakers chose to deliberately keep the rupee overvalued by not devaluing it despite the UK having
devalued the sterling by 30 per cent. All Commonwealth countries did so, except ours.

Many economists continue to provide strange arguments such as `depreciation leads to increase in
debt`. They fail to see that by not depreciating in time, we fueled import consumption in the first place,
which was mostly financed by increasing the external debt.

It is high primarily because of the mostly consistent historic favourable exchange rate for imports i.e.
the overvalued rupee.

benefiting importers at the expense of exporters, played havoc with the trade deficit, and the economy
crashed with the onslaught of the global financial crisis of 2007-08. Foreign exchange reserves vanished
quickly.

the State Bank will undoubtedly come under pressure to intervene. If this happens, it will lead to
depletion of reserves leading to another balance-of-payments crisis. I hope this does not happen. I wish
the State Bank will be allowed to do its job independently. Rise the value of the dollar. Trust the State
Bank of Pakistan in managing the exchange rate independently.

Analysis

Currency depreciation was there in most programmes and was unavoidable due to fast falling
reserves. However, it failed to increase exports and reduce imports. So the rupee has fallen
80pc-plus since 2010-11, but imports have still increased by 50pc-plus while exports over these
10 years have shown near-zero growth.

Growing economy and exports require import of capital goods which leads to increase in
imports. the State Bank is proactively taking measures to curb nonessential and luxury imports

IMF

the main IMF conditions of currency depreciation, indirect tax, interest, utility and energy rate
hikes and privatisation have failed to deliver sustainable growth or even fiscal or external deficit
reduction over four decades. They all choke immediate growth and according to US economist
Joseph Stiglitz even long-term growth.

There is little in IMF conditions focused on growth-inducing policies by increasing exports or FDI
as IMF has no expertise in these areas. But then many ask why global powers have created an
entity to bail out developing states in crisis which specializes only in growth-reducing policies.
Also, the global economy run by rich states strongly discourages growth in developing states. So,
strong imports barriers in rich states discourage exports from poorer states that couldhelp them
 control their external deficits.

Tax havens

Tax havens encourage capital outflow from these states and make it harder for them to increase
taxes due to risk of such outflows.

Since July 2018, money supply in Pakistan has expanded considerably. As KhurramHusain reported,
money in circulation stood at Rs7 trillion by June 2021, up from Rs4.7tr in July 2018.

This is besides the deposits that have grown from Rs11tr to 17tr in the same period. That`s a lot of
money creation in three years.

Let`s come to the other critical part of this puzzle: aggregate supply. Can aggregate supply in a country
respond well to a rise in purchasing power? If not, we would encounter a known troubling predicament:
money chasing the same or comparatively less amounts of goods and services, which will push their
prices higher. Aggregate supply, in turn, depends upon the aggregate pro-ductivity within an economy.
Omer Siddique, our PIDE colleague, found that aggregate productivity in Pakistan has been declining
(Total Factor Productivity and Economic Growth in Pakistan: A Five-Decade Overview ).

The end result of all this (growth in money supply against aggregate supply that is relatively inflexible) is
the inflationary push within the economy.

This is the primary reason for Pakistan`s inflationary woes. The response of aggregate supply explains
why rates of inflation are different around the globe despite shocks like the coronavirus pandemic
affecting every country. In Pakistan, external shocks (eg oil prices and exchange rate changes) only serve
to exacerbate an already choked aggregate supply, accelerating the higher price push. For context,
inflation in Pakistan has been rising since 2018, well before the pandemic struck in 2020.

But why is Pakistan`s aggregate supply inelastic? One overwhelming factor: government policies,
especially heavy protection for domestic producers. Carmakers sell low-quality stuff at ridiculously high
prices because there is little external competition, ensuring that the (induced) demand for cars is always
ahead of supply. `Agricultural` Pakistan imports billions of dollars of farm commodities because more
than 100 public sector agricultural research institutes have little (if any) bearing upon agricultural
output, a recipe for disaster given the runaway population figures. Power sector, critical for aggregate
output, is in shambles due to the overwhelming government footprint.

by the time a pay rise for the labour force is realised, inflation has already eroded purchasing power to
an extent that any raise would at best help sustain living standards rather than raise it, a fact that is
aptly reflected in Pakistan`s stagnant human development indicators.

Governments are expected to fix problems not moan about the past. To explain every economic
difficulty by reference to the past doesn`t work anymore. Nor does the present official narrative to
justify rising inflation by comparison with other countries, where income and purchasing power are
higher than in Pakistan. Also, the government has blamed the Sindh government for the spike in sugar
prices when its own mismanagement and failure to import an adequate amount produced an acute
shortage and hence the price rise.

Too much money and it will fuel inflation. Too little and it will choke the engines of growth in the
economy

This “consumerism” — or buying beyond one’s needs — is also partly responsible for the fall of the
rupee against the US dollar.

(In 2015, Pakistan’s shadow economy, also called the underground, informal, or parallel economy, the
shadow economy includes not only illegal activities but also unreported income from the production of
legal goods and services, either from monetary or barter transactions, according to the International
Monetary Fund estimate, equalled 31.6pc of its GDP, an alarming number when we compare it with
Bangladesh (27.6pc), Turkey 27.4pc, Malaysia 26pc, Indonesia 21.8pc, Iran 18.4pc, India 17.9pc— and
China 12.1pc)

Pakistan’s overall exports of goods and services were equal to 17.27pc of its GDP back in 1992,
according to the World Bank data. But it continued falling since then, sometimes inching only to slide
again and in 2020 our total exports equaled just 10.57pc of GDP, SBP stats reveal.

Year after year, banks lend an excessive amount of money to the government through short-term debt
papers, offer to private sector businesses short-term working capital — and not long-term investment
finance — and make lots of pricey consumer loans. This is exactly what most commercial banks are
doing now.

Depreciation of the rupee has reduced the purchasing power of the industrialists, which is affecting
the local investment.

Prices are essentially a demandand-supply phenomenon and cannot be controlled by force alone.

The government`s job is to give a fair estimate of domestic output and, in case of expected shortages,
import the commodity in time.

Dark side of democracy = myriad of voices and opinions, where would you converge it.

Bright side of democracy= jointly can form the check and balance system.
In democracies, majority rule is constrained in order to protect minority rights all minority rights.
Ultimately, the goal is to make sure the majority cannot oppress those with dissenting or contrarian
views.

MCQs

• Blue Diamond affair. In 1989, a priceless 50-carat blue diamond was among an estimated $20
million worth of gems and jewelry pilfered by a Thai janitor from a Saudi princes palace in the
heist.
• Chinese ambassador to Pakistan= Nong Rong
• Dasu hydropower project= 233-metre-high dam, 4,300-megawatt, cost $4.2 billion.
• China Gezhouba Group Corporation (CGGC) Dasu HPP management
• Afghan Ambassador to Pakistan = Najibullah Ali khil`s daughter, Silsila, was abducted from the
federal capital`s on Friday 16 July 2021.
• C5+1 – the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Republic of
Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, the Republic of Uzbekistan, and the United States of
America
• The Israeli, NSO Group and its Pegasus malware capable of switching on a phone`s camera or
microphone and harvesting its data have been in the headlines since 2016
• Jeff Bezos And 3 Crewmates Travel To Space 10-minute, 10-second flight. Oliver
Daemen, An 18-year-old is to become the youngest person to fly to space
• Novak Djokovic outlasts Matteo Berrettini to win record-tying 20th Grand
SlamWimbledon 2021.
• The Spy Chronicles: RAW, ISI and the Illusion of Peace 2018 By A.S. Dulat and Asad
Durrani & Aditya Sinha
• A note verbale is a formal form of note and is so named by originally representing a
formal record of information delivered orally. ... A note verbale can also be referred to
as a third person note (TPN).

• Edhi died on 8 july 2016

• Mamnoon Hussain died on Wednesday 14 July, 2021 in Karachi. Cancer.
• Omar sharif death October 2, 2021.
• Dr. Abdul qadeer 1 April 1936- 10 october 2021.
• Shane wane died on 4 march 2022
• President tarar died on 7th march 2022
• Abdul karim (little karim), the porter, died on 4th april 2022. At the age of 68.
•
• US’ first lady Jill Biden
• Canada’s first lady SophieGregoire
• Israel’s first lady Machil
• 23rdJuly 2021 Tokyo Olympics began after a year delay.
• Japan Emperor Naruhito
• Pope Francis
•
• Britain would deploy two warships in Asian waters Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier and escort
ships sail to Japan in September will dock at Yokosuka.
• National Security advisor US, Jake Sullivan.
• the 1.5 degree target under the Paris Agreement for Climate Change
• Pakistan hosted the “World Environment Day 2021”, on 5 June 2021.The theme for
World Environment Day 2021 was'Ecosystem Restoration'
• The G20 meeting at NAPLES, Italy was seen as a decisive step ahead of United Nations climate
talks, known as COP 26, which takes place in 100 days` time in Glasgow in November.
• L.K Andvani began the Hindutva movement with demolition of the Babri Masjid.
• Savarkar Used the word Hindutva to talk about the pure Indians race on the basis of ethnicity.
According to him, Hindutva was a political ideology, which included Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhist and
Jains, and Muslims and Christians were considered outsiders. He compared Jew to the Muslims
in India. Some people use the word Hindutva and Hinduism inter-changeably. Hinduism is an
ideology that believes in the motto that the whole world is a family. On the other hand,
Hindutva ideology depicts superiority, some in the circle and others outsiders who are inferior.
• National security Advisor of Afghanistan Hamdullah Mohibmet Nawaz Sharif on 24th July 2021
in London.
• Al Qaeda`s weekly newsletterThabat, the UN report points out that Al Qaeda in the Indian
Subcontinent (AQIS) led by Osama Mahmood.
• Israel`s state-owned EuropeAsia Pipeline Company (EAPC) and an Israeli-Emirati company called
MED-RED Land Bridge Ltd
• Monday 26thJuly 2021, Tunisia`s army-barricaded parliament, a day after President Kais Saled
ousted the prime minister, Hichem Mechichi and suspended the legislature, plunging the young
democracy into a constitutional crisis.
• UK and US signed the UKUSA agreement, a communication intelligence pact they later expanded
to include Australia, New Zealand and Canada. This little discussed Anglo-Saxon intelligence
alliance is known as Five Eyes.
• Nineteen year-old Pakistani mountaineer, Shehroze Kashif, has become the youngest person to
summit the world`s second highest mountain, K2, only two months after scaling the mighty
Mount Everest.On 26 July 2021, sherpas affixing ropes for climbers about 300m below an
obstacle known as the Bottleneck discovered the bodies of Mohammad Ali Sadpara of Pakistan,
Iceland`s John Snorri and Chile`s Juan Pablo Mohr.
• The Heng Tong 77 was en-route to Istanbul from China when it drifted and got stuck in shallow
waters Wednesday near the coast inport city of Karachi Pakistani.
• Ever given ship of the Japanese Evergreencompany blocked the Suez canal.
• Celestyal Experience (formerly Costa Romantica) and she is a cruise ship from Italy. She arrived at
Karachi`s Gadani Port
• “Cornelis Gert Jan” Britain fishing trawler seized by France.
• Nuclear-powered USS Connecticut struck a sea mount
• Tashkent Connectivity Conference held on 16thJuly 2021. In Uzbekistan.

• The 2019 United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP25Conference of the Parties,
was the 25thheld in Madrid, Spain

• COP 26 held in Glasgow England

• The COP 27 will take place in Egypt's Sharm El Sheikh city.

• G20 meet up in Italy in oct 2021

•
• World Breastfeeding Week (Aug 1-7)2021:
• Yoom e istehsaal August 5, 2021. Shahryar Afridi chairman of the parliament committee on
Kashmir.
• India has two aircraft carriers Admiral Gorshkov& INS Vikrant, the first aircraft carrier
built in India.
• the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) military bloc that consists of six
former Soviet states
• The MT Mercer Street, an oil products tanker operated by Israeli-controlled Zodiac maritime,
was struck last week off Oman`s coast, killing two crew members a Briton and a Romanian.
• Two decisions taken by Gen Ayub immediately after his 1958 takeover: the second was to
negotiate a trade deal with Germany, which caused Pakistan to halt industrialization and to
focus exclusively on food export. These negotiations culminated in 1959 in the signing of the
first-ever bilateral investment treaty (BIT) between any two countries in the world.
• CIA director William Burns
• UN Human Rights Chief.Michelle Bachelet.
• EU Chief Ursula von der leyen.
• European commission president Ursula von der leyen
• OIC headquarters in Jeddah.
• OIC secretary General Hissein Brahim Taha.
• 17thextra ordinary session of OIC council of Foreign Ministers held in Islamabad in Dec 17-19.
• 48th OIC meeting of Foreign ministers held in Pakistan theme: Building Partnership for Unity,
Justice, and Development.
• Last OIC CFM held in Niamey in 2020.
•
• 47th session of OIC’s council of foreign ministers held in Niamey capital of Niger
• Arab League Secretary General Ahmed Aboul Gheit
• WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
• Amnesty International’s Secretary GeneralAgnes Callamard.
• Amnesty International chief Agnes Callamard.
•
• Abdulla Shahid is the current president since 14 September 2021. On 7 June 2021, he
was elected as the 76th president of the United Nations General Assembly
•
• COP26 president Alot Sharma
• Asean`s envoyto Myanmar, Erywan Yusof
• Thomas West, US Special Representative for Afghanistan Mr West replaced Ambassador Zalmay
Khalilzad
• Pakistan`s Special Representative for Afghanistan Ambassador Mohammad Sadiq
• Russia`s special envoy for Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov
• Chinese special envoy for Afghanistan Yue Xiaoyong
• Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou
• Hamas re-elects Ismail Haniyeh as supreme leader.
• CTBTO, comprehensive test ban treaty organization head Robert Floyd. Egypt, Iran, India, Pakistan, china,
North Korea, United States are not the signatory.
• European Environmental Agency director Hans Bruyninck
• Twitter`s chief technical officer Parag Agrawal will replace Dorsey as CEO
•
•
•
• Oodaaq is 700 KMs south of the north pole. new island discovered is 780 meters north of Oodaaq
• General Assembly president Abdulla Shahid of Maldives. (check for recent)
• SAARC 16th meeting hosted by Pakistan on 16 17th August 2021. It has 8 member countries.
• International Olympic committee president Thomas Bach.
• NAB chairman retired justice Javed Iqbal.
• FPSC chairman Zahid Saeed.
• FBR chairman Dr.Muhamad Ashfaq Ahmed.
• NADRA chairman Tariq Malik
• Pakistan Olympic Association President Gen retd. Arif Hassan
• State Bank governor Riaz Baqir.
• PCB chairman Ramiz Raja.
• FIA Director-General is Sanaullah Abbasi
• PIA CEO Air Marshal Arshad Malik
• PIA CEO/Aviation minister Ghulam Sarwar Khan.
• IRSA Chairman Zahid Junejo
• Free and Fair Election Network (Fafen) has elected Ms.Mossarat Qadeem as its new chairperson for a
term of three years.
• Attorney General of Pakistan Khalid jawad Khan.
• CIIChairman Qibla ayyaz
• Sikh leader in PakistanSardar Sikander Singh
• Hindu leader in PakistanBhagat Lal Khokhar
• Christian leader in Pakistan Father James Chunan
• PCAA director general Khagan Murtaza
• NDMA chairman Lt. Gen Akhtar Nawaz
• PIPSPakistan Institute for Peace Studies Director Amir Rana
• PEMRA chairman Mohammad Saleem Baig
• OGRA chairman Masroor khan
• CPEC chairman Khalid Mansoor
• CDA Chairman Amer Ali Ahmed
• Pakistan’s ambassador to Afghanistan Mansoor Ahmad Khan
• Pakistan’s special representative to Afghanistan Muhammad Sadiq.
•
• The degree of criminal responsibility attributed to young persons should be lower since they are
less likely to understand the nature and consequences of their actions. At an impressionable
age, they are also more likely to be influenced by counselling and rehabilitative measures.
• f
•
• 6 Palestinian inmates broke the Gilbao prison in Israel.
• Egypt bright star military exercise 2021, at Mohamed naugib military Base, Egypt.
• CMSA= China Manned Space Agency
• Hurricane Ida hit northwest part of US
• General shermonworld’s biggest tree in California
• NCMC National crisis management cell, CE Counter Extremism, CT Counter Terrorism ,NAP National
Action Plan, NECTA National counter terrorism authority, NICC National intelligence coordination
committee headed by ISI.
• COP 26 in November inGlasgow.
• Burj Khalifa height 828 meters/ 2717 feet
• Afghanistan central bank name= Da afghan bank
• State bank of Pakistan Governor Dr. Reza Baqir
• Mahan AIR is of Iran
• Kam Air is of Afghanistan
 • Gulf Air is of Bahrain
• Belavia is a Belarusian airline.
•
• ICAN international campaign to abolish Nuclear weapon
• Derek Chauvin murderedgorge floyed.
•
• 86 members needed to maintain quorum out of 342 members
•
• TASS Russian news paper
• Russia State news agency RIA
• Belarusian state news agency Belta
• KCNA North Korean news agency
• SABA Yemen news agency
• SBS is the news agency of Australia
• UAE state-run WAM news agency
•
•
• Hyper-Sonicmissile tested by North Korea. It also has ICBMintercontinental ballistic missile. Issuing it a
mean to make room for diplomatic maneuverability.
• G20 emits nearly 80 pc of world’s carbon emissions. experts say meeting the 1.5 degree target
means slashing global emissions nearly in half by 2030 and to `net-zero` by 2050
• UN human rights council suspended Russian membership by 93 to 24 votes. Required 2/3rd majority. 58
abstained. Total 193.

Nobel prizes 2021

Physics Chemistry Physiology or Literature Nobel Peace Economic Sciences

Medicine

Syukuro Manabe- Benjamin David Julius-1/2 Abdulrazak Gurnah-1/1 Maria Ressa-1/2 David Card-1/2
1/4 List-1/2 Ardem Dmitry Andreyevich- Joshua D.Angrist-1/4
Klaus Hasselmann- Patapoutian-1/2 Muratov-1/2 Guido W. Imbens-1/4
1/4
Giorgio Parisi-1/2 David W.C.
MacMillan-
1/2

• Kosovodeclared independence from Serbia in 2008, which Serbia don not recognize.
• Dubai expo, east meets west. First started in London in 1851
• 22 Republicans senators have moved the bill.
• Cyclone Shaheen hit Oman & Iranian costs.
• ICIJ. International consortium of Investigative Journalists released the Pandora papers
• Swedish artist LarsVilks,who drew sacrilegious sketch dies in a carcrash
• BRICKS 2021 conference chaired by Modi theme “cooperation for continuity, consolidation and
consensus”
• William Shatner Captain James Kirk of `Star Trek` becoming at age 90 the oldest person in space
aboard.
• Sweden`s first female Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson
• `I, Jam Kamal Khan, under Article 130 (8) of theConstitution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan,
hereby resign from the office of the Chief Minister of Balochistan today the 24th October.
• Israel holds the `Blue Flag` exercises every two years since 2013 in the Negev desert.
• Japan`s Princess Mako, the emperor`s niece, married her college sweetheart, Kei Komuro.
• FacebookInc. changed its name to Meta, focuses on its ambitions building the `metaverse`
• Republic Barbados first president Sandra Mason, declared separation from the queen on 30 nov
2021.
• Barbados casts the removal of Elizabeth II, who is still queen of 15 other realms including the
United Kingdom, Australia, Canada and Jamaica.
• Nordic region, or Norden, may be defined as consisting of the five sovereign
states Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden, plus the three autonomous
territories connected to these states: the Faroe Islands and Greenland (Denmark) and
Åland (Finland)
• In October 2020, a member of the European Parliament, Petra De Sutter, was named Belgium`s
deputy prime minister and became the first transgender minister in Europe. Audrey Tang of
Taiwan is considered to have become the world`s first openly transgender government minister
in 2016.
• President Ayub Khan had inaugurated the pilot television station in Lahore on Nov 26, 1964.
• Aslam Azhar, considered the `father of Pakistan Television
• South African author and playwright Damon Galgut won the Booker Prize on Wednesday for his
novel The Promise, about a white family`s failed commitment to give their Black maid her own
home.He has been nominated for the Booker Prize twice before: in 2003 for The Good Doctor
and in 2010 for In a Strange Room.
• book titled, Rule By Fear: Eight Theses on Authoritarianism in Pakistan, by Ammar Ali Jan
• ML-1 projectwould be completed in three phases and in 8.5 years with a total estimated cost of
US $6.6806 billion.
•
• Special envoy of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) on Jammu and Kashmir Yousef
Aldobeay
• Pakistan Navy`s first frigate of Type 054A/P, the PNS Tughril, f261, has been commissioned at
the Hudong Zhonghua Shipyard in China.
• PNS Tughril is the first of 4 x Type 054 Frigates being constructed for Pakistan Navy.
• Ambassador of Pakistan to China Moin-ul-Haq.
• `Delhi Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan`, scheduled to be held on 10 November 2021.
• Quirinale Treaty between Italy and France in Nov 2021.
• France to take the EU Presidency in January 2022, for 6 months.
• Azerbaijan and Turkey have been promoting the concept of "Zangezur corridor"
• The 15th Summit of the Heads of State of the ECO on Sunday in Turkmenistan’s capital Ashgabat
on 28 Nov 2021.
Themed "Into the Future Together".President of Turkmenistan, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov,
chaired the summit. Attended byheads of ECO member states.
As the next chair of the Group of 77 and China, Pakistan will propose such a development
agenda. The next 48th regular session of OIC Foreign Ministers’ Conference in Islamabad on
March 23, 2022
• European Union`s envoy to Afghanistan Tomas Niklasson
• Olaf Scholza social democrat, was sworn in as German chancellor, become Germany`s ninth
chancellor since the end of World War Two.
• Recently awarded the Vir Chakra the third-highest wartime gallantry award after Param Vir
Chakra and Maha Vir Chakra by the Indian government
• G7 presidency now with UK, before in 2020 it was USA will be handed over to Germany in 2022
• Hamas was formed in 1987.
• First democratic summit held in USA on Dec 9-10, 2021.
• Pakistan on 13 December 2021, reported its first confirmed case of the Omicron variant, found
in a female patient from Karachi and was confirmed by the National Institute of Health (NIH)
through whole-genome sequencing.
• Britain records world`s first known death from Omicron.
• Harnaaz Sandhu of India was crowned the 70th Miss Universe early on Monday, topping a field
of some 80 contestants in a pageant that was touched by politics and the pandemic.
• Drone strike on Afghanistan on 29 august 2021 rendering 10 civilians killed.
• NECTA drafted first counter violence extremism policy in December 2021.
• Skardu Airport elevated to International Airport on 2 December 2021.
•
• Pakistan Navy and Royal Navy of Oman (RNO) participated in a bilateral naval exercise titled
Thamar Al Tayyib 2021 (TAT21)
• The first train from Islamabad to Istanbul was inaugurated on August 14, 2009. Similarly, the
first train from Istanbul reached the Islamabad dry port on August 13, 2010.
 • Archbishop Tutu`s memory is laden with honours, amongst them the Nobel Peace Prize which
he won in 1984.
• six members (see map): Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and
Tajikistan. Located in Moscow secretary general Major General Stanislav Vasilievich Zas
• The Group of 77 (G77) is a coalition of 134 developing countries in the United Nations, designed
to promote their collective economic interests. Pakistan will chair the groupfortheyear2022.
Pakistan has had the privilege of serving as its chair in New York on three occasions in the past.
outgoing Chair (Guinea)
• Senator Sherry Rahman’s book, Woman splaining: Navigating Activism, Politics and Modernity
in Pakistan, was 14 Jan 2022.

Islamabad KP Punjab (Lahore Sindh Balochistan Kashmir GB

High court (Peshawar high court)
high court)
Chief Athar Minallah Qaiser Muhammad Ahmed Ali Naeem Akhtar Raja Saeed Ali Baig
justice Rashid Khan Ameer Bhatti M. Shaikh Afghan Akram Khan

IG Ahsan Yunous

None of our political parties want strong LG systems for they are obsessed with taking
credit for the “kaam” that is essentially municipal. Before the 18th Amendment, the federal government
was the Scrooge who didn`t want to share his wealth and now it is the provincial governments. It is now
established that too much centralisation can give rise to separatist sentiments, as in the case of Sri
Lanka or East Pakistan. an American political economist argued that various cities and states competed
with each other on the basis of services such as schools, roads and sanitation as well as the taxes
imposed. For if people didn`t like the school standards in a city or felt the taxes were too high, they
could move elsewhere. Consider the secretariat established for south Punjab by the PTI. Regardless of
the number of bureaucrats sitting down south, the financial powers remain with Lahore.
Perhaps this is why LGs can be introduced and rolled back at will and there is little pushback from the
people. For the impact on their lives is so little that they remain apathetic.
 KP Punjab Sindh Balochistan Kashmir GB
CM Mehmood Khan Usman Buzdar Kasim Ali Mir Abdul CM Khalid
Shah Qudoos Abdul Qayyum Khurshid
Bizenjo Khan Niazi Khan
Also calledPM
Chief Shahzad khan Kamran Ali Mathar Niaz
Secretary Bangash Afzal Rana
Opposition m. akram khan Hamza Haleem Adil Malik Sikandar Chaudhary Latif Amjad Hussain
leader durrani Shahbaz Sheikh Khan Akbar Azar
Sharif

Governor Shah Farman Chaudhry Imran Ismail syed zahor Sultan Raja Jalal
sarwar ahmed agha Mehmood Hussain
Chaudhry Maqpoon
(President)

Speaker Mushtaq Chaudhry Agha Siraj Mir Jan Anwar Ul Haq Amjad Ali Zaidi
assembly Ahmad Ghani Pervez elahi Durrani Mohammad
Khan Jamali
Deputy MahmoodJan Sardar Dost Rehana Sardar Babar Riaz Gujar Nazir Ahmed
Speaker Muhammad Leghar Khan
assembly Mazari Musakhail
Senate chair Sadiq sinjrani N.A speaker Assad Kaiser
man khan

Senate Deputy Mirza N.A Deputy Kasim Suri

speaker Mohammad speaker
Afridi
Senate leader of Dr. Shehzad
the house Waseem

Senate leader of YusufRaza

opposition gillani
He enlisted five issues confronting the nation

had to decide forever what was the role of the state in Islamic dispensation and where they had to place
Islam in the constitutional dispensation and the governance paradigm.
Citing the examples of different Muslim countries like Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan,
Turkey and Indonesia, Justice Khosa emphasised` `We have to determine once for all what model we
have to adopt otherwise we would remain adrif t rudderless.

`We also have to decide which interpretation of Islam to choose since people belonging to several sects
are living in Pakistan,` he said adding unless they decided what would be their Islam, the adjudicatory
forums could never be able to decide on Shariah matters.

Justice Khosa then said they also needed to decide whether the primacy of the constitution was
absolute or not, recalling that they had tinkered with the constitution through a number of experiments
like presidential form of government, parliamentary form of government, One Unit etc.
`Is our constitution supreme,` Justice Khosa wondered. `Do we have confidence in our self, our culture
and system or we have to remain under the influence of models like US, British, Saudi Arabia, Madina ki
Riyasat and now Chinese model.

Justice Khosa emphasised that Article 5 of the Constitution which demanded loyalty to the state had
always been exploited by the unrepresented forces by justifying the abrogation of the constitution
whilestating the state had to be safeguarded first. `This concept always gives birth to the doctrine of
necessity,` he said adding the constitution and the state were intertwined and the state could not be
safe if the constitution was abrogated.

Justice Khosa then cited the third point about democracy and accountability. He said whenever a new
government came, it hurled heaps of allegations against its predecessor but when it came to the
appointment of chief election commissioner, NAB chief or caretaker set-up, both the government and
the opposition selected the appointees.
`It appears to be something not proper, Justice Khosa said adding in the presence of such allegations
how the people could trust judgements jointly made by ruling and opposition parties.

He said the biggest hurdle that was obstructing development was the mindset since `our loyalty is
towards our clan or tribe than the state. Such tendencies are now even creeping up in different
institutions including the legal fraternity which often goes on strike every now and then.

SBP BILL Flaws

The logic for its autonomy from executives still holds, though it doesn`t mean autonomy from states.
Thus many states make them accountable to parliament for recruitment for their top offices and key
policy decisions.

Against this backdrop, some key issues exist in the SBP bill. Since it gives much leeway to SBP top staff,
SBP can be free of the executive only if their recruitment decisions don`t lie with it solely. But in this bill,
the executive will appoint, fire and reappoint its all-powerful board of governor and non-executive
(eminent national economists) directors and to some extent even its deputy governors. Since the bill
cuts the formal powers of the executive over SBP in some areas, this may create a perverse incentive for
it to appoint weaklings whom it can still control informally. The option of a second five-year term for
governor by the executive may also up this informal sway.

Washington Consensus - a set of economic policies focusing on

privatisation and deregulation, among others.