AIHL [167 marks]

1a. [2 marks]

Markscheme
* This sample question was produced by experienced DP mathematics senior examiners to
aid teachers in preparing for external assessment in the new MAA course. There may be
minor differences in formatting compared to formal exam papers.
Let 𝑋 represent the mass of a melon
P(𝑋 > 3.0) = 0.212 (0.2118 … ) (M1)A1

[2 marks]
1b. [2 marks]

Markscheme
0.2118 … × 0.2118 … (M1)
= 0.0449 (0.04488 … ) A1

[2 marks]
1c. [2 marks]

Markscheme
Let 𝑇 represent the total mass
E(𝑇) = 5.2 A1
Var(𝑇) = 0.52 + 0.52 = 0.5 (M1)A1
𝑇 ∼ N(5.2,  0.5)
P(𝑇 > 6.0) = 0.129 (0.1289 … ) A1

[4 marks]
1d. [1 mark]
Markscheme
Let 𝜇 be the mean mass of the melons produced by the farm.
H0 : 𝜇 = 2.6 kg, H1 : 𝜇 > 2.6 kg only A1

Note: Accept H0 : The mean mass of melons produced by the farm is equal to 2.6 kg
H1 : The mean mass of melons produced by the farm is greater than 2.6 kg
Note: Award A0 if 2.6 kg does not appear in the hypothesis.

[1 mark]
1e. [4 marks]

Markscheme
0.52
Under H0 𝑋 ∼ N (2.6,  ) A1
16

P(𝑋 > 𝑎) = 0.05 (M1)

𝑎 = 2.81 (2.805606 … ) (A1)

Critical region is 𝑋 > 2.81 A1

[4 marks]
1f. [3 marks]

Markscheme
Let 𝑊 represent the new mass of the melons
E(𝑊 ) = 1.1 × 2.6 = 2.86 A1
Standard deviation of 𝑊 = 1.1 × 0.5 (M1)
= 0.55 A1

Note: award M1A0 for Var(𝑊 ) = 1.12 × 0.52 = 0.3025

[3 marks]
1g. [2 marks]

Markscheme
𝑃(𝑇𝑦𝑝𝑒 𝐼𝐼 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟) =
0.55
P (𝑋 < 2.81 𝜇 = 2.86,  𝜎 = ) (M1)
4

= 0.346 (0.346204 … ) A1

Note: Accept 0.358 from use of the three‐figure answer to part (d)

[2 marks]
2a. [1 mark]

Markscheme
𝑥 = 4.63 (4.62686 … ) A1

[1 mark]
2b. [2 marks]

Markscheme
𝑠𝑛−1 = 1.098702 (A1)
2
𝑠𝑛−1 = 1.21 (1.207146 … ) A1

Note: Award A0A0 for an answer of 1.19 from biased estimate.

[2 marks]
2c. [1 mark]

Markscheme
𝐻1  : 𝜇 > 4.4 A1

[1 mark]
2d. [4 marks]

Markscheme
METHOD 1
using a 𝑧-test (M1)
𝑝 = 0.0454992 … A1
𝑝 < 0.05 R1
reject null hypothesis A1
(therefore there is significant evidence that the IB HL math students know more digits of 𝜋
than the population in general)

Note: Do not award R0A1. Allow R1A1 for consistent conclusion following on from their 𝑝-
value.

METHOD 2
using a 𝑡-test (M1)
𝑝 = 0.0478584 … A1
𝑝 < 0.05 R1
reject null hypothesis A1
(therefore there is significant evidence that the IB HL math students know more digits of 𝜋
than the population in general)

Note: Do not award R0A1. Allow R1A1 for consistent conclusion following on from their 𝑝-
value.

[4 marks]
3a. [6 marks]

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences
in marking or structure.
6
Let 𝑋 = Σ 𝐶𝑖 − 2𝐵 M1
𝑖=1
E(𝑋) = 6 × 130 − 2 × 400 = −20 (M1)(A1)
Var(𝑋) = 6 × 25 + 4 × 80 = 470 (M1)(A1)
P(𝑋 > 0) = 0.178 A1

Note: Condone the notation 6𝐶 − 2𝐵 only if the (M1) is awarded for the variance.

[6 marks]
3b. [3 marks]

Markscheme
𝑧 = 2.326 … (A1)
2𝑧𝜎
<2 M1
√𝑛

√𝑛 > 11.6 …
𝑛 > 135.2 …
𝑛 = 136 A1

Note: Condone the use of equal signs.

[3 marks]
3c. [3 marks]

Markscheme
80
variance = = 10 (A1)
8

under 𝐻0 , 𝐵  ∼  N(400,  10)

significance level = P(𝐵 < 395) (M1)

= 0.0569 or 5.69% A1

Note: Accept any answer that rounds to 0.057 or 5.7%.

[3 marks]
3d. [3 marks]
Markscheme
Type II error probability = P(Accept 𝐻0  𝐻1 true) (M1)

= P (𝐵 > 395 𝐵 ≈ 𝑁(392,  10)) (A1)

= 0.171 A1
Note: Accept any answer that rounds to 0.17.

[3 marks]
4a. [2 marks]

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences
in marking or structure.
E(2𝑋 + 7𝑌) = 2E(𝑋) + 7E(𝑌) = 6 + 28 = 34 (M1)A1
[2 marks]
4b. [3 marks]

Markscheme
Var(𝑋) = E(𝑋) = 3 and Var(𝑌) = E(𝑌) = 4 (R1)
Var(4𝑋 − 3𝑌) = 16Var(𝑋) + 9Var(𝑌) = 48 + 36 (M1)
= 84 A1

[3 marks]
4c. [4 marks]

Markscheme
2
use of E(𝑈 2 ) = Var(𝑈) + (E(𝑈)) (M1)

E(𝑋 2 ) = 3 + 32 ; E (𝑌 2 ) = 4 + 4 2 A1
E(𝑋 2 − 𝑌 2 ) = E(𝑋 2 ) − E(𝑌 2 ) (M1)
= −8 A1
[4 marks]
5a. [2 marks]

Markscheme
Note: Accept all answers that round to the correct 2sf answer in (a), (b) and (c) but not in
(d).

𝑋 ∼ 𝑁 (550, 82) (M1)

P(𝑋 > 560) − 0.10564 … = 0.106 A1

[2 marks]
5b. [4 marks]

Markscheme
Note: Accept all answers that round to the correct 2sf answer in (a), (b) and (c) but not in
(d).

𝑋𝑖 ∼ 𝑁 (550, 82), 𝑖 = 1,…, 11

let 𝑌 = ∑11
𝑖=1 𝑋𝑖

E(Y) = 11 × 550(6050) A1
Var(Y) = 11 × 82   (704) (M1)A1
P(𝑌 ≤ 6000) = 0.02975 … = 0.0298 A1

[4 marks]
5c. [2 marks]

Markscheme
Note: Accept all answers that round to the correct 2sf answer in (a), (b) and (c) but not in
(d).

𝑡 distribution with 7 degrees of freedom A1A1

[2 marks]
5d. [2 marks]

Markscheme
Note: Accept all answers that round to the correct 2sf answer in (a), (b) and (c) but not in
(d).

p = 0.25779…= 0.258 A2

[2 marks]
5e. [2 marks]

Markscheme
Note: Accept all answers that round to the correct 2sf answer in (a), (b) and (c) but not in
(d).

p > 0.05 R1
therefore we conclude that there is no evidence to reject 𝐻0 A1
Note: FT their p-value.
Note: Only award A1 if R1 awarded.

[2 marks]
5f. [1 mark]

Markscheme
Note: Accept all answers that round to the correct 2sf answer in (a), (b) and (c) but not in
(d).

𝐻0  :  𝜌 = 0, 𝐻1  :  𝜌 > 0 A1
Note: Do not accept 𝑟 in place of 𝜌.
[1 mark]
5g. [2 marks]

Markscheme
Note: Accept all answers that round to the correct 2sf answer in (a), (b) and (c) but not in
(d).

𝑟 = 0.782 A2

[2 marks]
5h. [3 marks]

Markscheme
Note: Accept all answers that round to the correct 2sf answer in (a), (b) and (c) but not in
(d).

0.01095… = 0.0110 A1
since 0.0110 < 0.05 R1
there is positive association between weight and length A1
Note: FT their p-value.
Note: Only award A1 if R1 awarded.
Note: Conclusion must be in context.

[3 marks]
5i. [3 marks]

Markscheme
Note: Accept all answers that round to the correct 2sf answer in (a), (b) and (c) but not in
(d).
regression line of 𝑦(weight) on 𝑥(length) is (M1)
𝑦 = 0.8267… 𝑥 + 255.96… (A1)
𝑥 = 360 gives 𝑦 = 554 A1
Note: Award M1A0A0 for the wrong regression line, that is 𝑦 = 0.7393…𝑥 – 51.62….

[3 marks]
6a. [1 mark]

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences
in marking or structure.
Note: In question 1, accept answers that round correctly to 2 significant figures.
P(4.75 < X < 4.85) = 0.197 A1
[1 mark]
6b. [6 marks]

Markscheme
Note: In question 1, accept answers that round correctly to 2 significant figures.
consider the random variable X − 2Y (M1)
E(X − 2Y) = − 0.6 (A1)
Var(X − 2Y) = Var(X) + 4Var(Y) (M1)
= 0.13 (A1)
X − 2Y ∼ N(−0.6, 0.13)
P(X − 2Y > 0) (M1)
= 0.0480 A1
[6 marks]
6c. [4 marks]

Markscheme
Note: In question 1, accept answers that round correctly to 2 significant figures.
let W = X1 + X2 + Y1 + Y2 + Y3 be the total weight
E(W) = 17.7 (A1)
Var(W) = 2Var(X) + 3Var(Y) = 0.1475 (M1)(A1)
W ∼ N(17.7, 0.1475)
P(W > 18) = 0.217 A1
[4 marks]

7a. [2 marks]

Markscheme
let 𝑋 be the random variable “the weight of a sack of potatoes”
P(𝑋 < 50) (M1)
= 0.588 kg (0.587929 … ) A1

[2 marks]
7b. [2 marks]

Markscheme
P(𝑋 < 𝑙 ) = 0.25 (M1)
49.2 kg (49.1929 … ) A1

[2 marks]
7c. [3 marks]

Markscheme
attempt to sum 10 independent random variables (M1)
10
𝑌 = Σ 𝑋𝑖 ∼ N(498, 10 × 0.92 ) (A1)
𝑖=1

P(𝑌 > 500) = 0.241 A1

[3 marks]
8a. [2 marks]
Markscheme
for 𝑛 (sufficiently) large the sample mean 𝑋 approximately A1
𝜎2
∼ N (𝜇, ) A1
𝑛

Note: Award the first A1 for 𝑛 large and reference to the sample mean (𝑋), the second A1 is
for normal and the two parameters.
Note: Award the second A1 only if the first A1 is awarded.
Note: Allow ‘𝑛 tends to infinity’ or ‘𝑛 ≥ 30’ in place of ‘large’.
[2 marks]
8b. [2 marks]

Markscheme
[59.9, 60.5] A1A1
Note: Accept answers which round to the correct 3sf answers.
[2 marks]
8c. [4 marks]

Markscheme
4
under 𝐻0 , 𝑋 ∼ N (60, ) (A1)
100

required to find 𝑘 such that 𝑃(𝑋 > 𝑘) = 0.05 (M1)

𝜎
use of any valid method, eg GDC Inv(Normal) or 𝑘 = 60 + 𝑧 (M1)
√𝑛

hence critical region is 𝑥 = 60.33 A1

[4 marks]
8d. [1 mark]

Markscheme
0.05 A1
[1 mark]
8e. [5 marks]
Markscheme
P(Type II error) = P(𝐻0 is accepted / 𝐻0 is false) (R1)
Note: Accept Type II error means 𝐻0 is accepted given 𝐻0 is false.
4
⇒ P(𝑋 < 60.33) = 0.25 when 𝑋 ∼ N (𝜇, ) (M1)
100

𝑋−𝜇 60.33−𝜇
⇒ P( 2 < 2 ) = 0.25 (M1)
10 10

60.33−𝜇
⇒ P (𝑍 < 2 ) = 0.25 where 𝑍 ∼ N(0, 12 )
10

60.33−𝜇
2 = −0.6744 … (A1)
10

2
𝜇 = 60.33 + × 0.6744 …
10
𝜇 = 60.5 A1
[5 marks]
9a. [1 mark]

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences
in marking or structure.
𝜎2
𝑋 ∼ 𝑁 (𝜇,   100) A1

Note: Accept 𝑛 in place of 100.

[1 mark]
9b. [1 mark]

Markscheme
∑𝑥 199.8
̂=
𝜇 = = 1.998 A1
𝑛 100

Note: Accept 2.00, 2.0 and 2.

[1 mark]
9c. [2 marks]
Markscheme
𝑛 ∑𝑥 2 2 100 407.8
𝑠𝑛−1 2 = 𝑛−1 ( −𝑥 )= ( 100 − 1.9982 ) (M1)
𝑛 99

= 0.086864
unbiased estimate for 𝜎 2 is 0.0869 A1
Note: Accept any answer which rounds to 0.087.
[2 marks]
9d. [3 marks]

Markscheme
0.0869
90 % confidence interval is 1.998 ± 1.660√ (M1)
100

= (1.95, 2.05) A1A1

Note: FT their 𝜎 from (c).
Note: Condone the use of the 𝑧-value 1.645 since 𝑛 is large.
Note: Accept any values that round to 1.95 and 2.05.
[3 marks]
9e. [2 marks]

Markscheme
𝑝-value is 0.0377 A2
Note: Award A1 for the 2-tail value 0.0754.
Note: Award A2 for 0.0377 and A1 for any other value that rounds to 0.038.
Note: FT their estimated mean from (b), note that 2 gives 𝑝 = 0.032(0).
[2 marks]
9f. [1 mark]

Markscheme
accept the null hypothesis A1
Note: FT their 𝑝-value.
[1 mark]
10a. [1 mark]

Markscheme
∑75
𝑖=1 𝑡𝑖
𝑡= = 28.886 …    = 28.9 A1
75

[1 mark]
10b. [2 marks]

Markscheme
75 ∑75 2
𝑖=1 𝑡𝑖 2
𝑠𝑛−1 2 = 74 ( − 𝑡 ) = 188.9009 …   = 189 (M1)A1
75

Note: Accept all answers that round to 28.9 and 189.

Note: Award M0 if division by 75.

[2 marks]
10c. [3 marks]

Markscheme
attempting to find a confidence interval. (M1)
(i) 90% interval: (26.2, 31.5) A1
(ii) 95% interval: (25.7, 32.0) A1

Note: Accept any values which round to within 0.1 of the correct value.
Note: Award M1A1A0 if only confidence limits are given in the form 28.9 ± 2.6.

[3 marks]
10d. [3 marks]

Markscheme
26 lies within the 95% interval but not within the 90% interval R1
Note: Award R1 for considering whether or not one or two of the intervals contain 26.
the belief is supported at the 5% level (accept 95%) A1
the belief is not supported at the 10% level (accept 90%) A1
Note: FT their intervals but award R1A1A0 if both intervals give the same conclusion.

[3 marks]
11a. [1 mark]

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences
in marking or structure.
Note: In question 3, accept answers that round correctly to 2 significant figures.
H0  :  𝜇 = 9.5;  H1  :  𝜇 ≠ 9.5 A1
[1 mark]
11b. [4 marks]

Markscheme
Note: In question 3, accept answers that round correctly to 2 significant figures.
0.4
the critical values are 9.5 ± 1.95996 … × (M1)(A1)
√20

i.e. 9.3247…, 9.6753…

the critical region is 𝑏 < 9.32, 𝑏 > 9.68 A1A1

Note: Award A1 for correct inequalities, A1 for correct values.
Note: Award M0 if t-distribution used, note that t(19)97.5 = 2.093 …
[4 marks]
11c. [3 marks]

Markscheme
Note: In question 3, accept answers that round correctly to 2 significant figures.
0.4 2
𝐵 ∼ N (9.8, ( ) ) (A1)
√20
P(9.3247 … < 𝐵 < 9.6753 … ) (M1)

=0.0816 A1
Note: FT the critical values from (b). Note that critical values of 9.32 and 9.68 give 0.0899.
[3 marks]
11d. [4 marks]

Markscheme
Note: In question 3, accept answers that round correctly to 2 significant figures.
METHOD 1
1.22
𝑋 ∼ N (10.8,  ) (M1)(A1)
6

P(10.2 < X < 11.4) = 0.7793… (A1)

confidence level is 77.9% A1
Note: Accept 78%.
METHOD 2
1.2
11.4 − 10.2 = 2𝑧 × (M1)
√6

𝑧 = 1.224 … (A1)
P(−1.224… < Z < 1.224…) = 0.7793… (A1)
confidence level is 77.9% A1
Note: Accept 78%.
[4 marks]
12a. [1 mark]

Markscheme
𝑋 ∼ Po(324) A1

Note: Both distribution and mean must be seen for A1 to be awarded.

[1 mark]
12b. [2 marks]
Markscheme
P(𝑋 ≤ 300) (M1)
= 0.0946831 … ≈ 0.0947 A1

[2 marks]
12c. [4 marks]

Markscheme
(mean number of cars =) 4.5 × 60 = 270 (A1)
P(𝑋 > 300  𝜆 = 270) (M1)

Note: Award M1 for using 𝜆 = 270 to evaluate a probability.

P(𝑋 ≥ 301) OR 1 − P(𝑋 ≤ 300) (M1)

= 0.0334207 … ≈ 0.0334 A1

[4 marks]
13a. [2 marks]

Markscheme
P(Type I error) = P(stating female when male)
= P(𝑊𝑀𝑎𝑙𝑒 > 11.5) (M1)
= 0.00135 (0.00134996 … ) A1

[2 marks]
13b. [2 marks]

Markscheme
P(Type II error) = P(stating male when female)
= P(𝑊𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 < 11.5) (M1)
= 0.309 (0.308537 … ) A1
[2 marks]
13c. [2 marks]

Markscheme
attempt to use the total probability (M1)
P(error) = 0.9 × 0.00134996 … + 0.1 × 0.308537 …
= 0.0321 (0.0320687 … ) A1

[2 marks]
14a. [2 marks]

Markscheme
let 𝑋 be the random variable “number of patients arriving in a minute”, such that 𝑋 ∼
Po(𝑚)
H0 : 𝑚 = 1.5 A1
H1 : 𝑚 > 1.5 A1
Note: Allow a value of 270 for 𝑚. Award at most A0A1 if it is not clear that it is the
population mean being referred to e.g
H0 : The number of patients is equal to 1.5 every minute
H1 : The number of patients exceeds 1.5 every minute.
Referring to the “expected” number of patients or the use of 𝜇 or 𝜆 is sufficient for A1A1.

[2 marks]
14b. [5 marks]

Markscheme
under H0 let 𝑌 be the number of patients in 3 hours
𝑌 ∼ Po(270) (A1)

P(𝑌 ≥ 320) (= 1 − P(𝑌 ≤ 319)) = 0.00166 (0.00165874) (M1)A1

since 0.00166 < 0.05 R1

(reject H0 )
Loreto should employ more staff A1

[5 marks]
14c. [2 marks]

Markscheme
H0 : The probability of a patient waiting less than 20 minutes is 0.95 A1
H1 : The probability of a patient waiting less than 20 minutes is less than 0.95 A1

[2 marks]
14d. [5 marks]

Markscheme
Under H0 let 𝑊 be the number of patients waiting more than 20 minutes
𝑊 ∼ B(150, 0.05) (A1)
P(𝑊 ≥ 11) = 0.132 (0.132215 … ) (M1)A1
since 0.132 > 0.1 R1
(fail to reject H0 )
insufficient evidence to suggest they are not meeting their target A1

Note: Do not accept “they are meeting target” for the A1. Accept use of B(150, 0.95) and
P(𝑊 ≤ 139) and any consistent use of a random variable, appropriate 𝑝-value and
significance level.

[5 marks]
15a. [3 marks]

Markscheme
* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences
in marking or structure.
UE of 𝜇 is 8.01 (= 8.0125) A1
UE of 𝜎 2 is 0.404 (M1)A1

Note: Accept answers that round correctly to 2 sf.

Note: Condone incorrect notation, ie, 𝜇 instead of UE of 𝜇 and 𝜎 2 instead of UE of 𝜎 2 .

Note: M0 for squaring 0.594 … giving 0.354, M1A0 for failing to square 0.635 …

[3 marks]
15b. [3 marks]

Markscheme
attempting to use the 𝑡-test (M1)
𝑝-value is 0.0566 A2

Note: Accept any answer that rounds correctly to 2 sf.

[3 marks]
15c. [2 marks]

Markscheme
0.0566 > 0.05 R1
we accept the null hypothesis (mean pumpkin weight is 7.5 kg) A1

Note: Apply follow through on the candidate’s 𝑝-value.

Note: Do not award A1 if R1 is not awarded.

[2 marks]