Project Risk Management

Dec 2010
What is Risk?

Risk is the uncertainty of an action or activity

which may have an impact on the
achievement of the (project’s) objectives,
outputs & benefits

It is the result of the combination of Impact &

Probability

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Project Risk Management

• Undertaking any project entails risk

• A random & ad hoc reaction to identification &
Why? management of risk is often fatal to success/
sustainability of the project, or may require costly
interventions

• Systematic process of managing risk:

 To achieve objectives in a manner consistent with public
interest, human safety, environmental factors & law
What?  To minimize the adverse impact of risk on project's
resources, objectives & outputs

Does not mean eliminating risk but reducing operational surprises/ losses

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Risk Management Cycle
Based on
Risk assumptions
Identification which may be
risky
Log frame
Design & superv’n
docs
Brainstorm

Risk Monitoring Risk Assessment

& Reporting Measurement
Update regularly Prioritisation
Communicate Classification

Risk Response
Avoid (eliminate)
Assists in process
Reduce (diminish)
of identification/
Depends on risk Share (outsource) mitigation
appetite/preferences Accept (retain)

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Risk Identification

Risk Inventory Pyramid

COUNTRY
ENVIRONMENT

SOCIO-ECONOMIC
EXTERNAL RISKS ENVIRONMENT EXTERNAL RISKS

PARTNERS POLITICAL
ENVIRONMENT ENVIRONMENT

LEADERSHIP AND GOVERNANCE

INNOVATION &
PLANNING RISK MANAGEMENT

INTERNAL RISKS POLICIES, PROGRAMS RESOURCING AND INTERNAL RISKS

AND PROCESSES STEWARDSHIP

INFORMATION SYSTEMS PERFORMANCE AND RISK

MEASUREMENT, MONITORING
AND REPORTING

PRODUCTIVE WORKFORCE IN A
HEALTHY WORK ENVIRONMENT ACCOUNTABILITY

COUNTRY FOCUSED SERVICE DELIVERY AND CONSULTATIONS

CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT AND LEARNING

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 Risk Universe
Define the Risk Universe
– Develop understanding of business area– review documents, interviews
– May be structured by process and/or location

Define High Priority risks

– Evaluate the nature & types of errors/ omissions that could occur, i.e., “what can
go wrong”
– Consider significant risks common in the industry or experienced in past
– Information Technology risks (i.e. - access, backups, security, data integrity)
– Volume, size, complexity and homogeneity of the individual transactions
processed through a given account or group of accounts (revenue, receivables)
– Susceptibility to error or omission as well as manipulation or loss
– Robustness versus subjectiveness of processes for determining significant
estimates
– Decentralized authority
– Extent of change in the business/ human resources
– Other risks extending beyond potential material errors/ omissions in financial
statements 6
 Risk Assessment - Measurement
Impact Description

6 •Catastrophic: requires urgent/ extensive action; lives lost, funding

withdrawn, project failure
UNACCEPTABLE RISKS
5 •Major: requires urgent/ extensive action; cancellation/ suspension of
funding, very costly remedies

4 Significant: delays in funding, impacts potentially > 1 component,

requires urgent intervention of third parties (donors/ ministry), costly
remedial actions

3 Moderate: requires remedial action as soon as possible, impacts on 1

component, modest cost

2 Low: requires some remedial action, minor costs

1 Negligible: no interference with other activities, no financial cost

Likelihood Description

6 •Virtually certain to occur in the time frame “Black swan”

5 •Highly likely in the timeframe; several precedents

4 Likely to occur; some precedents

3 Unlikely, but not unprecedented

2 Unlikely, without precedent

ACCEPTABLE RISKS
1 Virtually impossible

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 Risk Monitoring
Log frame approach to risks - example

# Basic objective Risk event L I RP Actor Time

isk Consequence isk Mitigation Strategy frame

1 Profitable farmer managed
and self-financing irrigation
schemes established and
operational
Decline in the •Farm viability deteriorates
sugar price and •Financing institutions refuse
impacts on the to fund capital and on farm
economic viability development
of sugar cane as •Large scale irrigation
an anchor crop development compromised
with resulting increase in
poverty and increased food
security risk
H H 5 •Crop diversification in line with, Project
Annual
national & international market leadership,
needs national Sugar
•Develop local livestock Association,
ownership into commercial herds project
with supp. feeds produced on beneficiaries
irrigation areas
•Pursue downstream
development initiatives with
potential to add value to crops
grown on the scheme, these
initiatives could be production of
crops with potential for bio-fuel
starch, oils & fibre production

2 Policy, institutional & social
environment supportive of
equitable integration of
smallholder farmers into the
commercial economy
People resisting Land and irrigation M H 5 Facilitate agreement on equity Project leadership land owners,
land use change development delayed; less options acceptable to all parties Traditional Authorities & project
land is available for beneficiaries
redistribution;
Few landless people benefit
from irrigation

L: Likelihood/ I: Impact/ RP: Risk Priority

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Project Risk Management in IFAD

 Begins at COSOP

 Countries with high corruption/ poor governance ratings subject to

additional checks/ controls embedded into project design &
implementation

 Risks highlighted in project design documents

 Manage risks through expanded Log Frame – suggested

approach for projects

 Annual Portfolio review – assess fiduciary aspects, project

implementation progress, outputs & outcomes, sustainability,
likelihood of achieving development objectives & impact in
increasing physical & financial assets/improving food security

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Risks in IFAD projects

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10 Golden Rules

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Thank You