Technical Writing

Project Report
Ukraine Russia Conflict

Submitted To: Ms. Mehwish

Submitted By:
Munad e Ali
Riyan Ali Alvi
Abdul Rehman Al Nasir
Sameer Akram

Department: Electrical Engineering

Program and Session: BS-EE-20-24

DATED: 9-MAR-2022

PAKISTAN INSTITUTE OF ENGINEERING AND APPLIED SCIENCES

NILORE, ISLAMABAD
Contents
1. Timeline of events between Russia and Ukraine relating to the status quo .............................. 1
1.1. 1918 .................................................................................................................................... 1
1.2. 1932 and 1933 .................................................................................................................... 1
1.3. 1939-1944........................................................................................................................... 1
1.4. 1991- Ukrainian Independence .......................................................................................... 1
1.5. 1994- Budapest Memorandum ........................................................................................... 2
1.6. April 3 2008- Russia resisted Ukraine NATO movement ................................................. 2
1.7. Dec 2004- Overthrowing and re-ections ............................................................................ 2
1.8. 2014 Feb-March- Russia seizing the Crimea, creating an outrage internationally ............ 2
1.9. 2014-15............................................................................................................................... 3
1.10. 2019 ................................................................................................................................ 3
1.11. 2021-22 ........................................................................................................................... 3
1.12. 24 Feb, 2022 ................................................................................................................... 4
2. Is the war in Ukraine really about Ukraine? .............................................................................. 4
2.1. Why did Russia invade Ukraine in the first place? ............................................................ 5
2.2. What does Putin think about Ukraine? ............................................................................... 5
3. The status quo regarding the conflict ........................................................................................ 6
4. Some important aspects ............................................................................................................. 8
4.1. Putin's motives are unclear, but his chances of recovery are minute. ................................ 8
4.2. Unintended outcome: Europe, Ukraine come together ...................................................... 8
4.3. Most Russians never wanted this to happen....................................................................... 9
4.4. The long-term effects of sanctions are still unclear ........................................................... 9
5. History between Russia and Ukraine....................................................................................... 10
6. How and when did the current conflict begin and how it relates to Russia invading Ukraine
now? ................................................................................................................................................ 10
7. International sanctions imposed to cast down Russia from progressing further with the
invasion. .......................................................................................................................................... 12
7.1. What are sanctions? .......................................................................................................... 12
7.2. What does the EU suggest? .............................................................................................. 12
7.3. The war in Ukraine raises new questions for EU foreign policy: .................................... 12
8. What punishments already exist? ............................................................................................ 13
8.1. Financial measures ........................................................................................................... 13
8.2. Energy .............................................................................................................................. 14
8.3. Targeting individuals........................................................................................................ 14
 8.4. What exactly are the companies doing? ........................................................................... 14
8.5. Military equipment and mercenaries ................................................................................ 15
8.6. Flights ............................................................................................................................... 15
8.7. Luxury goods.................................................................................................................... 15
9. Major demands of Russia, Ukraine and the West ................................................................... 15
9.1. What does Russia want? ................................................................................................... 15
9.2. What does Ukraine want? ................................................................................................ 16
9.3. What does the West want? ............................................................................................... 16
10. Human Rights violations in Ukraine caused by the conflict................................................ 16
10.1. Kharkiv Rape ................................................................................................................ 19
10.2. Summary Murder, Other Violence ............................................................................... 21
11. HOW DO UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND OTHER NATIONS RESPOND TO
THE RUSSIA INVASION? ........................................................................................................... 24
12. Impacts of the conflict on International Economy ............................................................... 25
13. Geo-Political Issues regarding the Russia Ukrainian conflict ............................................. 32
13.1. Power ............................................................................................................................ 33
13.2. Food .............................................................................................................................. 35
13.3. Problems of Migration and Governance ....................................................................... 37
13.4. Stress ............................................................................................................................. 38
14. Different countries and their stance regarding the matter .................................................... 39
14.1. UNITED STATES ........................................................................................................ 39
14.2. UNITED KINGDOM ................................................................................................... 39
14.3. FRANCE ...................................................................................................................... 40
14.4. CHINA: ........................................................................................................................ 40
14.5. PAKISTAN: ................................................................................................................. 40
14.6. INDIA: .......................................................................................................................... 41
14.7. IRAN: ........................................................................................................................... 42
14.8. VENEZUELA .............................................................................................................. 42
14.9. SYRIA .......................................................................................................................... 42
14.10. VENEZUELA .............................................................................................................. 42
14.11. CANADA ..................................................................................................................... 43
14.12. GERMANY .................................................................................................................. 43
14.13. BELARUS .................................................................................................................... 43
14.14. CUBA: .......................................................................................................................... 44
14.15. THE NETHERLANDS ................................................................................................ 44
 14.16. SWEDEN, NOWAY AND DENMARK ..................................................................... 44
14.17. FINLAND ..................................................................................................................... 45
14.18. BELGIUM .................................................................................................................... 45
14.19. PORTUGAL ................................................................................................................. 45
14.20. GREECE ....................................................................................................................... 45
14.21. EROMANIA ................................................................................................................. 45
14.22. SPAIN ........................................................................................................................... 45
14.23. CZECH REPUBLIC ..................................................................................................... 45
14.24. E-CROATIA ................................................................................................................. 45
14.25. SWITZERLAND .......................................................................................................... 46
14.26. AUSTRIA ..................................................................................................................... 46
14.27. IRELAND ..................................................................................................................... 46
14.28. GULF COUNTRIES: ................................................................................................... 46
14.29. ISRAEL: ....................................................................................................................... 47
14.30. Turkey........................................................................................................................... 47
15. Possible Solutions (Personal Opinion)................................................................................. 48
16. References ............................................................................................................................ 49
 Ukraine Russian Conflict

1. Timeline of events between Russia and Ukraine relating to the status

quo
The two states which were once members of the Soviet Union are now once again on war so when
discussing how the matter actually arose between the two states we need to first analyze some
significant events from the past.

1.1. 1918
So there has been an independence war and a nationalist movement between Russia and Ukraine
since decades, in 1918 Ukraine declared itself an independent sovereign state which was the result
of a conflict fought for years between countries and armies.This declaration was Internationally
recognised under the Treaty of Brest-LItovsk. However this movement was later diminished by the
soviet forces and in 1921 Ukraine was submerged into the Soviet Union.

1.2. 1932 and 1933

Now this is the era of Joseph Stalin whose murderous policies caused the famine and killed millions
of people, mainly the ethnic Ukrainians. Its called Holodomor in Ukrainian.

1.3. 1939-1944
Here comes World War 2 every state is involved in battles and everything everywhere. Soviet
Union occupied the west of Ukraine Romania and Poland however later on the Nazi Germnay
invaded and annexed Ukraine which suffered from devastating losses.

1.4. 1991- Ukrainian Independence

Ukraine now calls for a referendum which results in 92 percent of the people calling for
independence as a result in 1991 Ukraine declares itself an independent state. An accord has been
signed now between Ukraine, Russia and Belarus that the Soviet Union is dismantled. Ukraine now
also hands some of the nuclear weapons which were once possessed by the Soviet Union. Ukraine
is the second largest country in EUrope according to its area and has a considerable amount of
population as well.

1
 1.5. 1994- Budapest Memorandum
On 5 December 1994 in Budapest Hungary an agreement was signed which was part of the non
proliferation Treaty, under this treaty Ukraine has to give up its nuclear assets in exchange that the
sovereignty and independence of Ukraine was respected and its existing borders would be accepted.

1.6. April 3 2008- Russia resisted Ukraine NATO movement

In early April 2008, the NATO summit began with a heated debate over the expansion of the
Membership Action Plan (MAP) in Ukraine. To gain NATO membership, a military alliance
between 28 European countries and two North American countries committed to maintaining peace
and security in the North Atlantic region, countries must first have a MAP. Putin made his anti-
Ukrainian membership known to NATO leaders, once reportedly telling President George W. Bush
that Ukraine "is not even a real nation." NATO does not grant Ukraine IMAP.

1.7. Dec 2004- Overthrowing and re-ections

The presidential election between Viktor Yushchenko, a western candidate, and Viktor
Yanukovych, a Russian-backed candidate, is a source of controversy. Yushchenko was inexplicably
poisoned before the election but was able to recover. The victory was announced in favor of
Yanukovych but the election was widely seen as rigged. Ukrainians took to the streets wearing
orange, which was the color of Yushchenko's campaign. In December, protesters were able to force
a re-run, which led to Yushchenko's victory.

1.8. 2014 Feb-March- Russia seizing the Crimea, creating an outrage

internationally
Now mainly two political parties exist in Ukraine: the Pro Russian party and the Pro Ukrainian
party. Victor Yanukuvych who was the elected person from the Pro Russian party was overthrown
in February by the protestors as he signed friendly deals with Russia giving them safe routers from
Ukraine as well as a significant share in the deep sea inreturn Russia would just supply cheaper oil
to Ukraine. Under this situation more than a 100 people were killed in the main city of Kyiv which
is often also called Maidan.

The new government now had Pro Western interests which signed trade agreements with the
European Union which was seen by Russia as a step towards being getting a part of the bloc.

2
As the result the Russia attacked the crimian peninsula and occupied it, rebellions in eastern Ukraine
were fully backed by the Russia which then declared themselves Independent states Peoples
republic of Donetsk and Peoples Republic of Luhansk which is collectively known as the Donbas
region. These rebellions went for war against the Ukraine which later spread west and in the process
more than 13000 Ukrainian soldiers were killed.

1.9. 2014-15
Russia, Ukraine, Germany and FRance trying for peace signs a series of agreements for cease-fire
known as the Minsk accords. However these agreements were internationally only viewed as being
ambiguous having no net outcome.

The donbas region and its boundary doted in red

1.10. 2019
Volodymir Zelensky is now elected as the President of Ukraine who was a former comedian only
getting a vast majority for his promises of maintaining peace with Russia and restoring the Donbas
region as the part of Ukraine.

1.11. 2021-22
Russian President Vladymir Putin, trying to prevent the UKraine to side with the USA asks for
security guarantees and also demands the NATO to guarantee that Ukraine will never get
membership of NATO. Putin also demands NATO and its allies to pull back troops from the
countries which were stationed after 1997. A significant number of PEople in Russia view the
capital of UKraine Kyiv as the birthplace of their land and feel like having many cultural ties with
the city.

3
 1.12. 24 Feb, 2022
A few days after recognizing the rebel areas, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The
attack began in the eastern part of Ukraine, Donbas. Zelenskyy declared military rule in Ukraine
and officially violated diplomatic relations with Russia. Putin's actions were condemned worldwide
and within Russia.

2. Is the war in Ukraine really about Ukraine?

Considering Ukraine's complex geopolitical situation, the current attack is not, as stated by
President Vladimir Putin, to protect Russian speakers or to save the lives of oppressed Russians.
Kremlin propaganda that Ukraine and Russia are brothers' brothers “Instead, Russia's goal is to
protect Ukraine's territory, which will serve as a barrier between the expansion of Moscow and
NATO.

The people of Ukraine feel that the war is about their independence, their identity, and their lives.
Although Europe and the U.S. admiring their patriotism and democratic values, helping them by
providing financial assistance and imposing economic sanctions, they refuse to take part in the
conflict. But NATO and the US are not innocent people. The decision to increase NATO's influence
in post-Soviet countries, despite promises by Russian leaders not to increase "one inch" in eastern
Germany, was a decisive factor in today's conflicts.

NATO and US officials continue to say that NATO is an alliance and there is no war with Russia,
which means it will not take part in the war in Ukraine. Russia, however, views things differently.
It does not hide its conflict with Western countries, making it clear that there will be "consequences"
for any EU agency or citizen involved in the conflict and that any Western intervention in Russia's
"special military intervention" will have "greater results than we have ever experienced." Later,
Putin explicitly stated that any supply of lethal weapons, fuel, or lubricants to the Ukrainian Armed
Forces would be considered an act of hostility against Russia and that all Western arms exports
should be considered "legitimate purposes."

Fearing war fatigue in Ukraine or an escalation of tensions that could escalate across the region, the
West is determined to take action. But what can the EU and NATO do to help resolve the Ukrainian
war?

4
The conflict in Ukraine denotes the finish of the post-Cold War period of harmony. It exhibits that
U.S. power isn't outright and the danger of atomic heightening remaining parts as close and
unappeasable as anyone might think possible. The Russian intrusion of Ukraine has turned into the
biggest traditional military assault since World War II. Expounding on the contention in The New
York Times, Emma Ashford said, "There could be no other great choices [than huge sanctions].
Discretion has been depleted." Indeed, strategy appears to have arrived at an impasse; the gatherings
included really can't settle on some mutual interest for discussion or agreement. The different sides'
points of view and requests block the chance of effective strategy.

2.1. Why did Russia invade Ukraine in the first place?

Experts say the root cause of the military conflict could be tied to a difficult history, a rift between
Russia and NATO and the wishes of Vladimir Putin. Predictions of Russia's full-scale invasion of
Ukraine came true on the morning of February 24.

Russia had recruited up to 190,000 troops - according to reports from the U.S. - on the Ukrainian
border during several months. The construction of troops around Russia's neighbor and the former
Soviet Union began in late 2021 and increased earlier this year. Prior to the attack, Russian
President Vladimir Putin identified the Russian rebel states of Donetsk and Luhansk, both located
in the disputed Donbas region, as republics of "independent" people and ordered so-called
"peacekeepers" in those areas. What started as a state of affairs but surrounded by hopes of
negotiations and negotiations has turned into what the Ukrainian foreign minister described as "the
most obvious act of violence in Europe since" World War II. Although what happens next is
impossible to predict, experts have an understanding of the origin of the conflict. They argued that
the root cause of the conflict could be traced to a combination of difficult history between the two
countries, of Russia's ongoing conflict with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the
aspirations of one man, Putin.

2.2. What does Putin think about Ukraine?

He asserted that Ukraine, an autonomous condition of 44 million individuals and Europe's biggest
nation, was a counterfeit innovation made by the Bolsheviks after the 1917 Russian upset.

"Modern Ukraine was entirely created by Russia," he said. "Lenin and his associates [severed] what
is historically Russian land."

5
3. The status quo regarding the conflict
Since Russia launched a full-scale military offense in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, fighting has
killed at least 3,000 people and displaced more than seven million people, according to the United
Nations. The conflict has forced five million Ukrainians to flee to neighboring countries — most
of them to Poland, NATO, where the United States and other allies are helping to control the influx
of refugees.

In October 2021, Russia began deploying troops and military equipment near its border with
Ukraine, beginning to worry about possible attacks. Commercial satellite images, posted on social
media, and intelligence released from November and December 2021 show weapons, arrows, and
other heavy weapons aimed at Ukraine without official explanation.

In December, more than 100,000 Russian troops were stationed near the Russian-Ukraine border
and US intelligence officials warned that Russia might plan an attack by early 2022. In mid-
December 2021, the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a set of telephone calls. for the United States
and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to stop any military activity in Eastern Europe
and Central Asia, to act against the expansion of NATO to Russia, and to ensure that Ukraine doesn't
join NATO. The United States and other NATO allies are rejecting these demands and warning
Russia that it will impose severe economic sanctions if Russia invades Ukraine. The United States
sent additional military aid to Ukraine, including ammunition, small arms, and other self-defense
weapons.

In early February 2022, US President Joe Biden ordered about 3,000 American troops to send to
Poland and Romania — NATO countries bordering Ukraine — to confront Russian troops stationed
near its border with Ukraine and to secure NATO allies. Satellite images have shown mass
deployment of Russian troops to its border with Belarus since the end of the Cold War. Negotiations
between the United States, Russia, and the European powers — including France and Germany —
have not resulted in a decision. While Russia has issued a statement saying it will reduce the number
of troops, there have been reports of an increase in Russian troops on the border with Ukraine.

Toward the end of February 2022, the United States warned that Russia intends to invade Ukraine,
citing the escalation of the Russian military on the Russia-Ukraine border. Russian President
Vladimir Putin then ordered troops to travel to Luhansk and Donetsk, the various provinces of

6
Eastern Ukraine in part controlled by Russian-backed separatists, saying the troops had done
"peacekeeping" work. The United States responded by imposing sanctions on Luhansk and Donetsk
regions and the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline a few days later.

On February 24, during a meeting of the United Nations Security Council to prevent Russia from
invading Ukraine, Putin announced the start of a Ukrainian-led offensive on land, sea, and air
toward Ukrainian military equipment and cities across the country. Biden called the attack
"unreasonable and unreasonable" and has since imposed severe sanctions on cooperation with
European partners, including sanctions against Russia's four largest banks, its oil and gas industry,
and the financial assets of Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The U.S. continues
to provide military assistance to Ukraine; Following a speech by Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelenskyy to the US Congress on March 16, Biden announced another $ 800 million military aid.
Since the attack on Russia, the United States has made $ 3.4 billion in security assistance, including
heavy weapons and ammunition. The United States has also dramatically increased the number of
US troops in Europe, bringing the total to over 100,000. The United Nations, the G7, the EU, and
other countries continue to criticize Russian actions and support Ukrainian forces. In a United
Nations emergency call on March 2, 141 of the 193 member states voted in favor of Russia's
invasion of Ukraine and demanded that Russia immediately stop using force in Ukraine.

Towards the end of March 2022, Russia announced that it would "reduce military activity" near
Kyiv and Chernihiv. As Russia's first attack slowed down, long-range missiles inflicted heavy
casualties on Ukrainian military equipment, urban settlements, and communications and
transportation infrastructure. Hospitals and shelters also continued to detonate bombings and
bombings. By April 6, Russia had withdrawn all troops from the Ukrainian capital. Following
Russia's withdrawal from areas close to Kyiv, Ukrainian citizens have described war crimes
committed by Russian troops including accounts of brief killings, torture and rape.

At that time, residents of Mariupol — a port city in southeastern Ukraine — have been experiencing
the effects of ongoing food shortages and water shortages. By the end of March, observers estimated
that the Russian bombing of Mariupol had damaged or destroyed more than 90 percent of the city.
Ukrainian officials have estimated the number of people killed during the Russian siege of Mariupol
by 20,000, with satellite images showing a large tomb near Mariupol. Russian troops have been
marching around the city for weeks in a series of air raids that have killed hundreds of people. On

7
April 18, Russia launched a major new offense in eastern Ukraine following its failure to try to take
over Kyiv.

4. Some important aspects

4.1. Putin's motives are unclear, but his chances of recovery are minute.
Russia's decision to invade Ukraine has confused Russian experts because they are not making
strategic ideas, Hutchinson said.

"Even Russian experts based in Russia are confused because it does not seem to be a good decision,"
he said. "We don't understand what's going on in Putin's head right now."

Russian President Vladimir Putin has made numerous excuses for the attack: that Ukraine was
killing Russian people; that Ukraine is not an independent nation but part of Russia; that the attack
was an "defensive" act against the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

"Putin reiterates this ancient Imperial myth that there is nothing like Ukraine and only one great
Russian country," Hutchinson said.

Apparently, the Russians are launching a massacre of civilians — approaching a strategy similar to
Chechnya. It does not appear that Putin has any intention of retreating.

4.2. Unintended outcome: Europe, Ukraine come together

The attack had an unintended consequence: Instead of creating divisions between Ukraine and
between European countries, people and nations have actually come together, the panels said.

O'Loughlin pointed out that the Russian government believes that Ukraine will easily succumb to
Russia's attacks, noting that the Ukrainian people are facing severe economic hardship - a recent
study found that 44% of Ukrainians were unable to pay their debts. It is clear that Putin did not
expect much opposition from Ukraine.

Putin's "long-term strategy" will obviously not work in view of the opposition in Ukraine and
outside support, "O'Loughlin said.

Instead of weakening NATO as Putin intended, the attack could give the alliance a new alliance.

8
"It is very difficult to see, without the dissolution of NATO, how Putin would not have used
[NATO] as a form of Western Boogeyman that should have been defeated," Sohkey said.

"It is possible that Putin deliberately accomplished the unification of Europe and made many
European countries NATO," he said. The six countries of the European Union — Austria, Cyprus,
Finland, Ireland, Malta and Sweden — are not NATO members.

4.3. Most Russians never wanted this to happen

In December 2021, reliable research data from Russia showed only 8% of Russians thought the
country should send troops to fight the Ukrainian government, and only 6% thought Russia should
approach the West as an enemy. Even so, 75% still believe that NATO is a threat to Russia.

"The data shows that the Russians did not think the West should be viewed as an enemy, but saw
the basis for a foreign policy that Putin might have followed," Sohkey said.

Since the start of the attack, there have been protests around Russia. Sohkey said the Russian
government was clearly concerned about the protests as it had deployed riot police to disperse the
events.

"The latest estimates I have seen are that nearly 6,000 people have been arrested for protesting and
at least 51 cities, including Moscow and St. Petersburg, have had anti-war protests," Sohkey said.

In addition, protests are now small about Soviet heritage and are about the loss of life in Ukraine,
and that Russia has been cut off from the world due to recent economic sanctions.

4.4. The long-term effects of sanctions are still unclear

Western countries have imposed major economic sanctions against Russia: The first assets seized
by Russian officials are held in Western banks; the second to exclude Russia from the Society for
Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), a messaging system that connects
thousands of financial institutions around the world; the third imposed restrictions on the Central
Bank of Russia, financing Russia in the United States.

"SWIFT is sometimes referred to as' nuclear option, '" Bearce said, noting that the move also has a
profound effect on the Russian people' daily lives because it affects almost every financial
transaction in the country. "The exclusion of the SWIFT network will have a significant impact on
Russian society."

9
Bearce added, however, that research shows sanctions often do not work, especially since sanctions
also hurt the country being punished (which is why the United States has seen rising oil prices).

But when combined with other policies, research shows sanctions may work. Bearce said an
example of this would be if the West was heavily equipped with the Ukrainian opposition, which
would wage war and disrupt the Russian economy.

“If sanctions work, this is a big deal. It is not just about removing Russia from Ukraine but also
about the effects of the Russian Region. ”

5. History between Russia and Ukraine

Russia and Ukraine have what any sides can define as a common or complex legacy dating back
thousands of years. A century ago, Ukraine, known as the European food basket, was one of the
most populous and powerful republics of the former USSR and an agricultural base until it declared
independence in 1991, according to the Council on Foreign Relations. But Russia has always looked
after its Western neighbor, and the people of Ukraine have found their independence to be more
chaotic at times, than times of protests and government corruption.

Ukraine's desire for greater alliance with Western countries - including its stated public interest in
joining NATO, which itself was established at least partially to prevent the spread of the Soviet
Union - met with anger from Russia, notes the council. Tensions escalated in 2014 after the
Ukrainian people ousted a Russian-backed president. Russia - under a dubious claim to protect
Russian and Russian-speaking people from Ukrainian persecution - has taken over the Crimea
region in Ukraine in a move strongly condemned by the international community. About the same
time, Russia escalated tensions in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, supporting a rival faction
in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions that sparked controversy. The regions declared independence
as both sides clashed. The conflict between the two countries has continued since then, with at least
14,000 people dead, according to the council.

6. How and when did the current conflict begin and how it relates to Russia
invading Ukraine now?
Russia began to expand its military presence around Ukraine - including Belarus, Russia's closest
ally in northern Ukraine - in late 2021 under various pretense while not clear on its objectives. In

10
December, tens of thousands of Russian troops marched across the border, circling the country and
clearing tensions that led to a call between Putin and US President Joe Biden. Fears rose earlier this
year as the number of Russian troops stationed around Ukraine grew. Biden and Putin have been at
loggerheads again, with the UN Security Council summoning to address the issue, and many leaders
from NATO, the US and other countries have called on Russia to step down or face retaliation in
some way. The most recent estimates - before the attack - put the number of Russian troops at the
border at around 200,000.

Everything could come down to Russia's services right now, Pomeranz said. It could be a "very
good time" in Putin's view, he adds, as the country has a budget of $ 600 billion and has invested
significant resources in rebuilding the Russian army.

"I think Vladimir Putin thinks this is the best time to fix what he sees as a mistake and undermine
the independence and sovereignty of Ukraine," said Pomeranz of the Wilson Center.

Putin probably sees the West - including the US, in particular - as weak, Pomeranz adds, which
could affect how much aid he thinks Ukraine will actually receive. Bowman echoes this sentiment
and points out how the US managed to withdraw troops from Afghanistan in August.

"I don't know how he could have read that like anything other than American weakness," said
Bowman, who served as an adviser to Republican officials for years.

"I think he was wondering if, without a doubt, the Biden administration would be weakened as the
Obama administration is facing a crackdown on Ukraine."

Biden administration officials will ask for differences in US response. Blinken, when he appeared
on February 23 in the "CBS Evening News" ahead of reports of an attack, said Russian.

Ukraine's fury could lead to "long-term Vladimir Putin and Russia payments."

"We don't stop and watch," Blinken said. "On the contrary, we have spent months building with our
partners and partners these very important results in Russia."

Other reasons for doing so now may be played for Putin. The combination of factors - from the
impact of the COVID-19 epidemic to the political crisis of Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelenskyy - has led to a "good storm" for the Russian leader to take action now, said Kimberly St.
Julian-Varnon, medical associate president at the University of Pennsylvania.

11
"I think it's his magnum opus," he said. "I think this is his biggest achievement in any Putinism."

7. International sanctions imposed to cast down Russia from progressing

further with the invasion.
The European Union has announced further sanctions against Russia, including a ban on the sale
of Russian oil by the end of this year.

These are the latest in a series of Western financial measures in response to the Ukrainian invasion.

They are designed to hurt the Russian economy and to punish President Putin, high officials, and
the beneficiaries of his rule.

7.1. What are sanctions?

Sanctions are punishments imposed on one country to discourage International anarchy, on
suspicion of committing acts of violence, or in violation of international law or UN charters.

They are among the most difficult measures the nations can take, and they are reluctant to go to
war.

7.2. What does the EU suggest?

Planned sanctions, which have not yet been approved by EU members, include:

Eliminate EU imports of Russian crude oil in six months and refined products by the end of 2022.

Disconnect Russia's largest bank, Sberbank, and Moscow's Credit Bank and Russian Agricultural
Bank in the international payment system Swift, which is used to transfer money across borders.

Disconnecting three Russian state-owned broadcasters in the EU via cable, satellite and internet

Fifty-eight Russians have been sentenced, including those involved in the Bucha war crimes and
the siege of Mariupol

Russian bank logo SBER

7.3. The war in Ukraine raises new questions for EU foreign policy:
“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – Europe’s gravest security crisis in decades – has prompted the EU
to take unprecedented decisions on security, defence and EU enlargement. It is also starting to shape

12
the EU’s external action more broadly, opening new questions for Brussels and member
states.”(Giuseppe-2022)

A more prominent accentuation on safeguard was at that point arising among a few European states
before the Russian attack. The conflict in Ukraine has gotten under way tremendous changes that
will probably stay as building blocks for the EU's future safeguard job, and perhaps continuously
increment the EU's capacity to intercede as a tactical player in complementarity with NATO, a
long-held desire that has up to this point to a great extent stayed a simple yearning. It might build
up a pattern in Europe to put significantly more weight on hard power - something that a few
European pioneers, including EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy
Josep Borrell and French President Emmanuel Macron, have needed for quite a while.

8. What punishments already exist?

Western countries have imposed widespread sanctions - targeted at individuals, banks, businesses
and large state-owned enterprises, as well as exports, among others.

8.1. Financial measures

“Russia's central bank assets have been frozen, stopping it using its $ 630bn (£ 470bn) foreign
currency.

This resulted in the ruble dropping by 22% in value, raising imports and leading to a 14% increase
in Russia's inflation rate. The ruble has returned, but largely due to Moscow's measures to support
it.

The United States has prevented Russia from repaying its $ 600m debt to US banks, making it
difficult for Russia to repay international loans.

Russia's largest banks have been removed from Swift's international financial messaging system.
This will delay payments to Russia for export power.

The SWIFT logo is displayed on the phone screen with the American flag displayed in the
background.Swift connects 11,000 banks and institutions in more than 200 countries

The UK has excluded key Russian banks from the UK financial system, freezes assets of all Russian
banks, barred Russian corporations from lending money, and imposed restrictions on how Russian
people can invest in UK banks,

13
 8.2. Energy
In addition to new EU measures, the US bans all Russian oil and gas exports and the UK will end
Russia's oil imports by the end of 2022.

Germany has suspended plans to open the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia.

The EU also said it would suspend coal purchases from Russia this August.

8.3. Targeting individuals

The US, EU, UK and other countries are already punishing Russians and more than 1,000
businesses, including:

Wealthy business leaders, called oligarchs, are considered to be close to the Kremlin, including
Chelsea FC owner Roman Abramovich.

Russian government officials and family members - including the children of former President
Vladimir Putin and relatives of Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov

The assets of President Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov have been frozen in the US, EU,
UK and Canada.

The UK has also suspended the sale of "gold visas", allowing wealthy Russians to obtain British
citizenship rights.

The hunt for authorized Russian superyachts

Will the new legal powers get Putin's spoils?

8.4. What exactly are the companies doing?

More than 1,000 international companies have suspended trade in Russia, or have withdrawn
altogether - including McDonald's, Coca-Cola and Starbucks.

Food giant Nestle has withdrawn some of its products including KitKat and Nesquik, but says it
will still sell "essential food".

However, other brands including Marks and Spencer, Burger King, and Marriott and Accor hotel
groups say they are unable to get out because their Russian businesses operate under complex
franchise agreements.

14
 8.5. Military equipment and mercenaries
Restrictions on the export of dual goods - items for both civilian and military purposes, such as car
parts - have been imposed by the UK, the EU and the US.

The UK has also imposed sanctions on Russia's Wagner Group - a private military company thought
to operate as a Russian military unit.

8.6. Flights
All Russian airlines are banned from the US, UK, EU and Canadian airspace.

The UK has also banned private flights chartered by Russian citizens.

8.7. Luxury goods

The UK and the EU have banned the export of luxury goods to Russia - including cars, high fashion
and art.

The UK also imposed a 35% tax on some imported goods from Russia, including vodka.

How does Russia react?

Russia has banned the export of more than 200 products by the end of 2022, including
telecommunications, medical, motor vehicle, agricultural, electronics and timber.

In addition it restricts interest payments on foreign investors holding government bonds, and
prevents Russian firms from paying overseas shareholders.

It has stopped foreign investors holding Russian stocks and bonds worth billions of dollars to sell.”
BBC News

Can Russia turn to China as sanctions sting?

9. Major demands of Russia, Ukraine and the West

9.1. What does Russia want?
Russia has been transparent about its needs. It cited its four Ukrainian requirements for ending the
war:

15
1. To completely end the war, which means that Ukraine must stop any form of military action; 2.
Amend the constitution on neutrality (which will prevent it from joining NATO); 3. See Crimea as
a Russian territory; and

4. View Donetsk and Luhansk as independent regions.

Russia is unwilling to back down and, in an effort to force Ukraine to compromise, has taken a
tough stance on Western countries that help Ukraine.

9.2. What does Ukraine want?

Ukraine, however, is equally firm in its Russian demands: It needs peace, immediate suspension,
immediate withdrawal of all troops, and security guarantees. Ukraine's position on local sovereignty
does not change - it will never recognize Crimea and the Donbas region as part of Russia. Moreover,
the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy is trying to make money right now; with great
pressure to secure Ukraine's territory in the West, he appeals for EU membership immediately and
if not NATO membership, at least a close partnership with him for the establishment of a non-fly
zone across the country.

9.3. What does the West want?

The Western priority is to prevent bloodshed. EU countries and NATO are willing to pay any price
to contain the military conflict in Ukraine without sending their personnel. However, the EU and
NATO cannot compare their military efforts with those of Ukraine: No one wants to confront Russia
directly, threatening to use nuclear weapons. Western nations have shown extraordinary solidarity
in imposing sanctions on Russia and arming Ukraine, but there is no ongoing agreement. Eastern
bloc countries, with the exception of Hungary, are seeking direct military support, while the US,
representing NATO, is trying to narrow the gap between supporting Ukraine and not directly
participating in it.

10. Human Rights violations in Ukraine caused by the conflict

Several documents have been published by the Human rights watch where the Russian military
commited different crimes againts the general public expecially in the areas of Chernihiv, Kharkiv
and Kyiv. Reported rape cases are included containing 7 men and in one only one man along with
alot other severe crimes and illegal violaences against the genral public of Ukrain between the

16
Febraury 27 and March 14, 2022. Soldiers also had many allegations regarding thefts of food
clothing infrastructure and wood. THe ones putting the allegations also brutally suffered.

March 30, 2022

Destruction and loss in Bucha, Ukraine

Citizens' lives in a village surrounded by Russian troops

Home damage gun from the inside

"The cases we have listed are unspeakable, and deliberate violence against the people of Ukraine,"
said Hugh Williamson, director of Europe and Central Asia at Human Rights Watch. "Rape,
murder, and other acts of violence against Russian military personnel should be investigated as war
crimes."

Human Rights Watch interviewed 10 people, including witnesses, victims, and local residents in
Russian-occupied territories, either in person or by telephone. Some people ask to be identified by
their first names or by false names in order to be protected.

On March 4, Russian troops in Bucha, about 20 miles [30 km] northwest of Kyiv, rounded up five
men and killed one of them. A witness told Human Rights Watch that soldiers forced five men to
kneel on the side of the road, pulled their T-shirts on their heads, and shot one of the men in the
head. "She fell," the witness said, "and the women [on scene] shrieked."

February 23, 2022

Russia, Ukraine and International Law: Labor, Arms Conflict and Human Rights

Questions and Answers

Tetyana Tomenko in front of her house, which was damaged during the bombing of Novognativka,
in eastern Ukraine, on February 20, 2022.

Russian troops in the village of Staryi Bykiv, in Chernihiv region, rounded up at least six men on
February 27, and later killed them, according to the mother of one of the men, who was nearby
when her son and another man were arrested, and who saw the bodies of all six.

17
A 60-year-old man told Human Rights Watch that on March 4, a Russian soldier threatened to kill
him and his son in Zabuchchya, a town in northwest Kyiv, after searching their home and found a
hunting rifle and petrol in the backyard. . One of the soldiers even intervened to stop the other
soldiers from killing them, the man said. Her daughter confirmed her account in a separate
conversation.

On March 6, Russian troops in the village of Vorzel, about 30 miles [50 km] northwest of Kyiv,
detonated a smoke bomb in the basement, shooting a 14-year-old woman and child as they exited
the basement, where they had been stationed. asylum. A man who was with her in the basement
when she was wounded two days later, and heard about the incident from others, provided
information to Human Rights Watch. The baby died on the spot, he said.

People walk amid destruction as they evacuate a frontline area between the cities of Bucha
and Irpin, near Kyiv, Ukraine, March 10, 2022. © 2022 GETTY IMAGES/Chris McGrath

A woman told Human Rights Watch that a Russian soldier had repeatedly raped her at a school in
the Kharkiv region where she and her family had taken refuge on March 13. She allegedly beat and

18
cut off her face, neck and hair with a cloth. knife. The next day the woman fled to Kharkiv, where
she received medical treatment and other services. Human Rights Watch has reviewed two photos,
the woman shared with Human Rights Watch, showing her facial injuries.

A volunteer carrying a Ukrainian child as residents fleeing the war in Ukraine, arrived by bus in
Przemysl, in eastern Poland, from the Medyka border border.

Most of the Ukrainian citizens we spoke to described the Russian army taking food, firewood,
clothing, and other items like saws, axes, and gasoline.

All parties to the armed conflict in Ukraine are obligated to comply with international humanitarian
law, or military law, including the Geneva Conventions of 1949, the First Additional Protocol to
Geneva Conventions, and customary international humanitarian law. Armed forces effectively
control the area under international settlement law. International human rights law, applicable at all
times, also applies.

Military laws prohibit deliberate murder, rape and other sexual violence, torture, and cruel treatment
of captive soldiers and detained civilians. Robbery and robbery are also not allowed. Anyone who
dictates or intentionally commits such acts, or who is self-employed or self-employed, is liable to
war crimes. Military commanders who knew or had reason to know about such crimes but who did
not try to stop or punish those who committed crimes were guilty of war crimes as required by law.

"Russia has an international obligation to unbiasedly investigate its military cases," Williamson
said. "Commanders should realize that failure to take action on murder and rape may lead them to
commit war crimes crimes as a regulatory obligation."

10.1. Kharkiv Rape

On March 13, a Russian soldier repeatedly beat and raped Olha [not his real name], a 31-year-old
woman in Malaya Rohan, a village in the Kharkiv region under Russian rule at the time.

Russian troops entered the city on February 25, Olha said. On that day, about 40 villagers, mostly
women and girls, took refuge in a basement of a local school. She was there with her 5-year-old
daughter, mother, 13-year-old sister and 24-year-old brother.

At midnight on March 13, a Russian soldier stormed the school, Olha said: “He broke the glass
windows on the school door and knocked on the door.” The guard opened the door.

19
The soldier, armed with a rifle and a shotgun, entered the basement and ordered everyone in line to
line up. The woman stood in line holding her sleeping daughter. He offered to give her a girl, but
she refused. He told his brother to come forward and ordered the whole group to kneel, or, he said,
he would shoot everyone in the basement.

The soldier ordered his brother to follow him and help him find food. They leave and return after
an hour or two. The soldier sat down.

"People started asking if they could go to the bathroom and he let them, in groups of two or three
people," Olha said. After that, the people began to stay overnight. The soldier went to his family
and told him to follow him.

The soldier took her to a second-floor classroom, pointed a gun at her, and ordered her to undress.
She said: “He told me to give her [oral sex]. He always held a gun near my temple or put it in my
face. He fired twice at the ceiling and said it would give me ‘inspiration.’ He raped her, then told
her to sit on a chair.

He said he was very cold at the unheated school and asked if he could wear it but the soldier told
him to put on only his top, not his pants or underwear. “When I put on my clothes, the officer told
me that he was Russian, his name [name withheld] and he was 20 years old. He said he reminded
me of a girl at school.

The soldier told him to go to the basement to get his things, so that he could stay with him in class.
He refused. "I knew my daughter would cry when she saw me," she said. The soldier found a knife
and told her to do so as she said she wanted to see her baby again. The soldier raped her again, put
a knife to her throat and cut her skin off her neck. He also cut his cheek with a knife and cut some
of his hair. He slapped her in the face and repeatedly slapped her. Photos shared with Human Rights
Watch, dated March 19 and 20, show cuts and bruises on the neck and face.

At about 7:00 am on March 14, a soldier told him to get a pack of cigarettes. They went down
together. He asked a guard to give the soldier a cigarette. After the soldier found the cigarette, he
left.

That same day he and his family moved to Kharkiv, where volunteers provided him with basic
medical care. They moved to a bomb shelter. "I'm lucky to be alive," he said. He said that Malaya

20
Rohan council officials were in contact with him and his mother and that the authorities were
preparing a criminal complaint, which they planned to file in the Ukrainian prosecutor's office.

Human Rights Watch has received three other allegations of sexual harassment by Russian troops
in other states in the southern Chernihiv and Mariupol districts but could not establish its
independence.

10.2. Summary Murder, Other Violence

On February 27, Russian troops rounded up six men in the village of Staryi Bykiv, Chernihiv region,
and killed them. Tetiana, from Novyi Bykiv, on her way to Staryi Bykiv, just across the Supiy
River, spoke to the relatives of the four men killed. He told Human Rights Watch that on February
27, a bridge between Novyi Bykiv and Staryi Bykiv was blown up, and Russian troops opened fire
on both sides. A column of Russian armored vehicles then entered Staryi Bykiv.

"Most of the people were hiding in their basements because of the bombings, and soldiers went
from house to house," Tetiana told Staryi Bykiv families. Soldiers took six men from their homes:

They took six men from three different families. One mother took both of her sons [shot]. A young
man in his early 20's, whose name was Bohdan, whose mother I knew so well, told me that the
soldiers had told him to wait near his house while he took his son ... to question him. They say the
same thing to other families. Instead, they led the six men to the edge of the city and shot them.

Viktoria, Bohdan's mother, who was interviewed separately, told Human Rights Watch on February
27:

They took my son, Bohdan [29], and my brother-in-law, Sasha [full name, Alexander, 39]. We were
in the basement [because of the shooting], so we did not see. They went out to smoke. Then our
neighbor ran to say that he had seen them take Bohdan and Sasha, along with a few other boys.

Victoria ran down the street to ask the Russian soldiers at the checkpoint. "They told us not to
worry, [the soldiers] would scare them a little and let them go," he said. “We walked a distance of
50 meters… and heard gunshots. It was about 6:20 pm. ”

Viktoria said that the next day she and her sister went to the pasture and saw the bodies lying on
the ground near the building:

21
The three were on one side of the building, but not my son and brother-in-law. We turned around
and saw [Bohdan and Sasha, and one more]. They were lying there. Gunfire erupted in their heads.
Their hands were tied behind their backs. I looked at my son's body, his bags were empty, he had
no phone, or his keys or [ID].

Viktoria asked the military for permission to go to the morgue, but she refused. Powerful bombing
continued in the following days.

On March 7, Viktoria said, they again asked the military for permission to collect the bodies: “At
the morgue they told us to go to the cemetery, to get the bodies for us. . . . All [all the neighbors]
came, as if 75 Abantu People. We buried them all in one day in different cemeteries. ”

Viktoria said the other four men buried that day were Volodymyr, 40, another Alexander, 40, and
two brothers, Ihor, 31, and Oleh, 33.

Tetiana said the soldiers also confiscated all the civilian firewood, leaving nothing to cook or heat
their homes.

On March 4, Russian soldiers briefly killed a man in Bucha, about 20 miles [30 km] northwest of
Kyiv, and threatened to kill four, said a teacher who witnessed the massacre. He said he heard
gunshots at around 7am and saw three Russian armored vehicles and four trucks belonging to
Kamaz [Russian brand] driving on his road. She was hiding in the basement with her two dogs
when she heard the glass break, and the front door shattered. The outside words read [in Russian]:
"Get out now or we'll drop a bomb."

He shouted that he was alone in the bathroom and came out with his hands up.

"There were three men outside, two [Russian] soldiers and a commander," he said. "They took my
phone and looked at it, then told me to take my [ID] with me." As he walked along the road with
the soldiers, he saw that they were also gathering his neighbors and telling them to leave. He said:

They took us to the office of AgroButpostach [a rental company]. Next to the building, there is a
parking lot and a small square. People gathered in the arena, mostly women but there were also
several men among us, over 50 [years old]. There were about 30 soldiers there and the commander
had a paratrooper sign [in his exhaustion]. He spoke in the western or central western way of

22
Russia…. I was born in Russia, so I take things for granted. The soldiers were all thin and very
ugly.

He said soldiers brought about 40 people to the square, collected everyone's phone calls, checked
documents, asked who was guarding the area, or local security centers:

Two women asked to go to the bathroom. One of them was pregnant. I asked to go with them. The
soldier showed us the way to the toilet, which surrounded the building, I think it was now their
headquarters. The building was tall. Near the wall on the other side, we saw a large pool of blood.

He said they waited in the square for many hours in the cold:

One time they brought one young man, followed by four. The soldiers ordered him to take off his
boots and jackets. Kneel them on the side of the road. Russian soldiers pull on their T-shirts, in the
back and over their heads. They shot one in the head. Wawa. The women shouted. The other four
men were just kneeling there. The commander told everyone else in the square: “Don't worry.
You're all normal - and this is filth. We are here to clean up the mess. ”

He said that a few hours later the soldiers took people back to their homes. Four other men were
left kneeling as they walked.

He said by the time he left town on March 9, the man's body was still lying on the ground where he
had been shot.

Dmytro, 40, told Human Rights Watch that he and his family fled the bombed town of Bucha on
March 7. He said they did not know anything about safe exit routes, so they left - wrapped in white
sheets and waving white sheets. wind - about five kilometers to the village of Vorzel.

When they arrived in Vorzel, they took refuge for two nights in a basement of a two-story building
with a group of local residents. Dmytro said there was a woman they were traveling with in the
basement who had injuries to her chest and legs. Some people in the basement told him he had been
shot the day before, when Russian troops stormed the basement and hurled a smoke bomb inside.
Many frightened people fled outside, where Russian soldiers shot at them. The woman was injured
and people in the basement told her that a 14-year-old child had been shot in the head and died.
Dmytro said the woman died the next day, March 8. He and many other civilians buried him outside
the bombed-out area.

23
On March 4, Russian troops threatened to kill a man and his son in Zabuchchya, a town on the
outskirts of Irpin, northwest of Kyiv. A local resident said that on March 4, Russian troops entered
the village, where they were being sheltered with 10 other people, including the Irpin family, in a
basement of their home. In a separate conversation, her daughter confirmed her account. He said
13 soldiers entered his house to search:

Soldiers inquired about my 34-year-old son, who was defending the country. He went out to meet
them. They asked who was in the house and searched the house downstairs.… In the back yard,
they found my hunting rifle and gasoline, and fired.

The commander of the army ordered the others: “Take [my son] and bring him to the outside tree
and shoot him.” They threw us out. One of the soldiers protested. They took us back inside and
ordered my son to undress because he said he wanted to look at the national tattoos. Some soldiers
also went to the houses on our street, including the judge's house - which locked the house - and
the deputy councilman.

They broke a window in the judge's house to enter. We saw them take bags and luggage to the
judge's house. After that, they left.… I took my family and everyone in the basement, and we fled
in two cars. My wife and son and mother, aged 80, now live in my daughter's home in Khodosivka
[southwest Kyiv].

11. HOW DO UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND OTHER

NATIONS RESPOND TO THE RUSSIA INVASION?
The North Atlantic Council, NATO's political decision-making body, held an emergency meeting
on February 24 to implement its defense plans, which include the NATO Response Force. Biden
had said before the Russian invasion that he would send more US troops to Eastern Europe to
protect NATO allies such as Poland but had repeatedly said he would not send US troops to Ukraine.
Other countries have already responded to Putin's actions in connection with the Donbas, which the
US called "the beginning of the invasion."

Biden on February 22 announced a series of sanctions against Russian financial institutions and
officials. That followed an administrative order issued banning new investment, trade and funding
for U.S. citizens. to, from or to Donetsk and Luhansk. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced

24
his country's sanctions on February 22, targeted at Russian banks and billionaires, the BBC
reported.

U.S. President he also imposed sanctions on Russia's natural gas pipeline company Nord Stream 2
and its officials in February. 23. This controversial project, which runs from Russia to Europe, is
not yet online but is important both in Moscow and the West. Europe, which has always relied
heavily on Russia's provision to meet its growing power needs. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz
had already said ahead of Biden's announcement that his country would suspend the issuance of
pipeline certificates due to Russia's action.

Biden promised in a statement at the end of February 23 that he would announce "further
consequences for the United States and our Allies and our allies who will hold Russia accountable
for this unnecessary act of oppression of Ukraine and international peace and security."

However, the world responds, St. Julian-Varnon hopes that the domestic political rally does not
interfere with what Ukraine really needs.

He adds, "We must focus on what we - and the United States government, our armed forces - can
do to provide material assistance to the Ukrainian military, but also to help prepare for the migration
crisis and to help people. The problem that will follow."

12. Impacts of the conflict on International Economy

How will the Ukrainian war, and sanctions against Russia, affect the global economy?

The world is experiencing staggering shocks, The crisis are evolving and increasing with previous
crisis yet unresolved like Israel Plaestine crisis, KAshmir Issues, Syran Crisis, Afghanistan Issue,
Libyan conflict etc.

“But before we analyze these global trends, we should talk about Russia. By separating itself from
the West, Russia begins to undermine its modern-day, outward-looking economy. Released from
the international financial system and under the partial ban on imports from the United States and
Europe from technology to aviation, enters inflation and depression, the ruble loses 32% of its value
since the beginning of the year, and 72% since the Crimean occupation. The empire is still
benefiting from the sale of oil and gas in Europe, which continues despite the brutality in Ukraine.
Within this context, I would like to draw attention to the call to stop funding Putin's war presented

25
by a team of economists - of which I am a member through three measures of oil restrictions, import
duties, and taxes. is passed on to low-income earners to help prevent shock.

War in Ukraine is causing food and fuel emergencies.

"More modest supplies and greater costs for food imply that the world's poor could be compelled
to manage without," said WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.

Forcefully rising ware costs have been the most quick financial effect of the Ukraine struggle, the
WTO says. The conflict likewise compromises supplies of fundamental products from Russia and
Ukraine, including food, energy and composts.

The stopping of grain shipments through Black Sea ports could have "possibly critical outcomes"
for food security in unfortunate nations, the WTO cautions.

New COVID-19 lockdowns in China are additionally upsetting exchange via ocean. This could
prompt new deficiencies of unrefined components and higher expansion.

In the event of a long stay in Ukraine, however, the Russian economy would collapse permanently.

The future is not completely closed in Russia. If a satisfactory agreement is reached quickly,
sanctions currently affecting the heart of the Russian economy can be lifted. In this event, the shock
will pass, and the economy will recover. In the event of a long stay in Ukraine, however, the Russian
economy would collapse permanently. Based on existing sanctions, the IMF estimates that Russia's
GDP will fall by 7% by 2022.

This number seems almost insignificant given the tightness of the rules, but it follows high growth
in early 2022. Instead of the annual estimate, if we measure GDP between the end of 2021 and the
end of 2022, the decline is likely to be significant. But that is not the most important thing. Putin's
strategy leads Russia to permanent depression, with a permanent loss of 15% to 20% of production,
and a reduction in real wages at least that much. Putin's dream of a pivot aimed at Asia is a delusion:
cut off from the West, Russia will simply become the Chinese superpower.

Let's go back to the world economy. It faces major shocks in the supply of resources in many areas:
the supply of mineral oil, wheat, potash, nitrogen fertilizers and industrial metals such as nickel and
titanium, which comprise a large part of Russia's (and Ukrainian) exports, have become

26
increasingly difficult. . reduced. The result is an increase in the global price of all these
commodities, as we have seen in a volatile manner especially with nickel.

Prior to the Ukraine invasion, the risk of stagflation was discussed due to rising prices of raw
materials and bottles in global production chains. But that fear was gone, it had to end when supply
chains returned to a normal level. Now, everything has changed — not only will the shock be greater
and it will affect the wider spectrum of the channels, and it may last longer.

Shortages of property will inevitably reduce employment in those areas already affected by previous
shortages or delays in service delivery, especially in the automotive industry and electrical
components. At the same time, inflation will reduce consumer purchasing power. This major
meltdown will reduce economic activity while accelerating inflation: this is really the instability -
the result of job losses and a decrease in corporate profits leading to reduced investment and,
ultimately, increased budget deficits.

This big shear fund will reduce economic activity while accelerating inflation: this is really
inflation.

As I have already said about Russia, the effects of stagflationary shocks depend largely on the war
period. In the best case scenario of an immediate peace agreement, the expected return to pre-
invasive conditions will be slow to arrive. Big banks will have to deal with some inflation, but their
biggest problem will still be looking at how to reduce inflation without compromising stability. In
the face of the potential for weak and extended sanctions, the global economy may find it extremely
difficult to return to a balanced growth path due to the costly and time-consuming costs of repairing
chains.

This will affect all countries, or to varying degrees. In Europe, for example, France and the United
Kingdom trade less with Russia than Germany and Italy, and as a result, they are the last two to hit
the hardest.

The Minister of Finance has spoken about the same shock of 1973, do you agree?

Indeed, the oil crisis of 1973-1974 was a major shock to the global economy. The new flow of
gasoline dollars from oil imports to OPEC was not a zero-sum game due to the low tendency of oil
kings to spend their new and bigger money. Subsequent inflation and low growth led to the

27
nickname "stagflation." This happened in conjunction with a few other factors that reduced
production prior to oil shock. Therefore what belongs to the Minister is excused.

However, I see three important differences between now and 1973.

The first size of the shock is small. Between 1973 and 1974, the price of crude oil exceeded 370%.
Assuming oil prices stabilize around $ 110 / bl (as of March 28, Brent crude traded at $ 113 / bl),
rising 2021 and 2022 would be 180%, a huge jump, but only 60 % of that 73-74.

The developed economy is more dependent on oil and much lower energy than in 1973. The French
case is particularly noteworthy - in 2019, mineral fuel consumption was 71% lower than in 1973.
Other things are equal, the French economy is now three and a half times sensitive to price
differences in fossil fuels. Although electricity costs have also skyrocketed, which was not the case
back then, when prices were below government control, the balanced valuation project was three
times smaller than in 1973-74.

In 1973, the world economy was less stable than it is today. While the oil boom of the 1970s brought
about a kind of global trade by opening up OPEC oil-producing countries for world trade, the Soviet
Union, China and India were all left out. Today, China controls international trade, both in foreign
trade (12.2 percent of exports) and imports (11.2%). Assuming that China is less affected than
OECD countries, the global economy could benefit from the turbulent building that did not exist in
1973.

As we can see, comparing 1973 has its limitations. With regard to the French economy, INSEE
provides a balanced view of its latest Note de Conjoncture. We have to talk about the amazing work
of professionals at INSEE, who have released as much information as possible from many business
surveys to assess the situation appropriately. By emphasizing the important uncertainties created
by the war and the length of the victories, it provides two very important details.

After the 25th of February, French business leaders quickly reviewed their underestimation,
especially in trade and industry. It is noteworthy that the comparative study of the New York Fed
had yielded similar results. However, at this stage, services and construction were not significantly

28
affected. Rising prices and their impact on their consumption indicate a lack of confidence in the
retail industry, while for producers, there is a significant risk of a shortage of essential commodities.

Based on the Banque de France base rate of 3.4% by 2022 and 2.0% by 2023, growth will drop to
2.4% by 2022 and 1.5% by 2023.

In addition, INSEE mimicked the short-term impact of current energy prices using major economic
models and without taking any economic policy response. The result was a 0.7% decline in France's
GDP by 2022, compared to what the situation could have been without the shock. Across the
Eurozone, the OECD predicts twice the 1.4%; the difference is explained by the more restrictive
speculation and the fact that France is disclosed less than the Eurozone average.

Let us assume that the impact on France in 2022 is almost 1% of GDP and, in the case of a protracted
war, growth is slowing to another half point by 2023. Based on Banque de France's 3.4% base rate
by 2022. and 2.0% in 2023, growth will fall to 2.4% in 2022 and 1.5% in 2023. This is obviously a
big shock, but not on the 6-point loss rate percentage after October 1973. Moreover, the recession
would not have happened. are enough to significantly increase unemployment, although job growth
may be slow.

What to expect from economic policies to reduce shock?

Prior to the Ukraine invasion, economic policy choices were blocked by guidelines that could be
summarized as "do enough, but not too much."

Financially, the aim was to alleviate the social deficit caused by the epidemic, but not immediately
and hardly to end recovery. France started this approach, but with its usual vigilance. "Inflation
check", a decision to reduce gas and gas prices - a strange way to respond to the shock of electricity
supply, as it does all it can to ensure that demand does not fall - and negatively affects the reduction
of budget deficits. way. The budget will also be tight with the decision to offer a 15 cents liter rebate
on diesel and fuel bills for four months. While this decision can also be criticized on the same basis
as power caps, it has the advantage of being temporary instead of tax evasion that is difficult to
reverse. Therefore, the previously anticipated budget deficit decreases, from 8.4% of GDP in 2021
to 4.8% in 2022, and will therefore be significantly reduced, as the deficit is 6% of the most visible
GDP.

29
In fact, we may be experiencing paradigm shifts. The approach to "anything needed" during the
Covid crisis, which makes survival possible by reducing economic damage, can continue to
embrace the military economy, and apply the policy "whatever is needed" - but for new reasons.

In fact, we may be experiencing paradigm shifts.

We find ourselves in unprecedented times: the outbreak of a deadly war on the borders of the
European Union; the transformation of a dictatorship - which expresses its Euro hostility through
backward measures such as supporting Europhobic political parties - into a dictatorship with the
largest number of nuclear weapons in the world; the worst threat of retaliation for those trying to
seduce Putin. All of these factors will have a significant impact on global economic policies.
Germany's (temporary) decision to triple its military budget is a clear example of this.

With regard to fiscal policies within the Eurozone, this will most likely mean increased relaxation
by the European Commission on budget deficits monitoring. The impact of the stagflationary shock,
increased military spending, the costs of receiving refugees (which it would be wise to consider as
an investment) and accelerating investments in energy infrastructures to escape dependence on
Russia- these are all elements that result in increased public spending. It would not be a surprise if
the Next Generation plan, jointly financed by an extension to the EU budget, were soon followed
by the emergence of a similar program that is now dictated by the war economy.

But how can we finance these increased budgetary needs? Raising taxes amid a stagflationary shock
would be counterproductive. This leaves the option of increasing debt. Some additional room for
maneuver has appeared here, thanks to the fall in real interest rates that has itself been caused by
fears of rising inflation. The U.S. Federal Reserve, which has just raised its key rate by 0.25% and
made clear this was only a first step, has barely managed to reverse the decline in real interest rates:
as of 25 March, the real five-year interest rate implied by inflation-indexed Treasury bonds was
standing at -1.2%. This is what the "war economy" paradigm means. In this context, the ECB will
likely be even more cautious. It is even possible that it will go as far as launching a new purchase
program for government debt, if the shock were to last for an extended period-in which case, it
would set aside the target of 2% inflation for better days ahead.

30
With regard to monetary policy within the Eurozone, this will likely mean further European
Commission independence in monitoring the budget deficit. The impact of stagflationary shocks,
increased military costs, refugee costs (which it would be wise to consider as an investment) and
accelerated investment in energy infrastructure to avoid relying on Russia - all are factors that lead
to increased public spending. . It would not be surprising if the Next Generation program, jointly
funded by EU budget expansion, was soon followed by the emergence of a similar plan already
determined by the military economy.

But how can we support these increased budget needs? Raising taxes during stagflation shocks can
be dangerous. This leaves the option of increasing the debt. There is another area of direct concern
that has arisen here, due to real interest rates declining due to fears of inflation. The US Federal
Reserve, which recently raised its key rate by 0.25% and made it clear that this was only the first
step, has not been able to reverse the decline in real interest rates: as of March 25, the real five-year
interest rate has been announced. by Treasury bonds with an inflation rate of 1.2%. This is what the
"military economics" paradigm means. In this context, the ECB will probably be even more
cautious. It could also lead to the launch of a new government debt repayment program, if the shock
were to last longer - in that case, it would set a 2% inflation target for the better days to come.

With regard to monetary policy within the Eurozone, this will likely mean further European
Commission independence in monitoring the budget deficit. The impact of stagflationary shocks,
increased military costs, refugee costs (which it would be wise to consider as an investment) and
accelerated investment in energy infrastructure to avoid relying on Russia - all are factors that lead
to increased public spending. . It would not be surprising if the Next Generation program, jointly
funded by EU budget expansion, was soon followed by the emergence of a similar plan already
determined by the military economy.

But how can we support these increased budget needs? Raising taxes during stagflation shocks can
be dangerous. This leaves the option of increasing the debt. There is another area of direct concern
that has arisen here, due to real interest rates declining due to fears of inflation. The US Federal
Reserve, which recently raised its key rate by 0.25% and made it clear that this was only the first
step, has not been able to reverse the decline in real interest rates: as of March 25, the real five-year
interest rate has been announced. by Treasury bonds with an inflation rate of 1.2%. This is what the

31
"military economics" paradigm means. In this context, the ECB will probably be even more
cautious. It could also lead to the launch of a new government debt repayment program, if the shock
were to last longer - in that case, it would set a 2% inflation target for the better days to come.” Eric
Chaney (Economic Advisor)

13. Geo-Political Issues regarding the Russia Ukrainian conflict

The response to Covid 19 has left many countries with very low foreign exchange reserves, while
countries whose economy relies on tourism have been severely affected. The economic recovery as
the most vaccinated Westerners came out of closed areas and began spending money, led to a sharp
rise in purchasing power, which led to the start of inflation. The Russia-Ukraine crisis has
exacerbated that the growing problem of cost of living and its impact on inflation is already felt
around the world in various sectors. Although developed countries may be able to control this
inflationary pressure, developing countries in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East are in a position to
do whatever they want.

The COVID-19 diversification and supply chain disruption has led to a disproportionate rise in the
global economy, while rising inflation and debt records are undermining international ability to
meet ongoing challenges. Developing countries are unable to recover from the economic downturn
in the epidemic, suffering from the double impact of lack of access to vaccines and low funding
capacity. WFP estimates that about 60 percent of countries currently have low incomes, or are at
high risk of debt crisis, compared to only 30% in 2015.

“Central Asia’s economies, heavily dependent on Russia, have been hit hard as sanctions on Russia
bite. Hundreds of thousands of migrant workers were already coming home from Russia during
the pandemic, and that trend is now accentuated. Their remittances would normally make up around
a third of GDP in places like Kyrgyzstan or Tajikistan. The impact on families dependent on this
source of income is huge.Food and energy prices are rocketing across Central Asia, with tumbling
currencies closely linked to the ruble exacerbating the issue. The South Caucasus faces the same
challenges, with some areas almost entirely dependent on Russia’s economy and banking
system.”(Nic Hailey-Economic Advisor)

This note considers three key areas in which the problem could be a major factor.

32
 13.1. Power
“Russia is the world's largest producer of natural gas; the second largest supplier of crude oil; and
the third largest crude oil producer. Prior to the Ukraine invasion, Europe and China imported about
60% and 20% respectively of Russian oil and 40% of European gas consumption provided by
Russia.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has pushed up crude oil prices by 14 years and has had a similar effect
on European oil prices. The high cost of transportation, the impact of reputation and the lack of
consumers' willingness to order oil from Russian ports means that Russian oil supply to world
markets has been severely disrupted.

Russia's unprovoked intrusion of Ukraine has irritated the business sectors and international affairs
of energy, driving oil and gas costs to their most significant levels in almost 10 years and compelling
numerous nations to rethink their energy supplies. As per the International Energy Agency, Russia
is the world's biggest oil exporter to worldwide business sectors, and its petroleum gas powers the
European economy. The United States, the European Union and others have forced monetary
approvals on Russia, and have declared plans to wean themselves off that country's petroleum
products. However, even as Russia's bombs downpour down on Ukraine, its oil and gas keeps on
streaming to Western countries that have denounced the intrusion.

The EU has already risen from the dangers of over-reliance on the supply of hydrocarbon by
unscrupulous partners. The answer is to speed up its transition to renewable resources. However,
that change cannot be achieved overnight, so in the short to medium term, the EU will continue to
rely on hydrocarbons for its energy needs.

The fear that the extraction of all Russian hydrocarbons from the European industrial plant would
put the European (and then the global economy) in economic downturn in part explains the EU's
(so far) concerns about imposing sanctions on Russia's gas exports. However, the EU intends to
significantly reduce its dependence on Russia's electricity by two-thirds this year (from 158 bcm to
55 bcm) and to completely eliminate its dependence on Russia's electricity by 2027. This means
that the EU must find more international suppliers to fill the gap: US promises to provide 15 bcm
more to EU and Qatar offers another 15 bcm (and Germany plans three LNG ports to get that gas)

33
- but that still leaves the EU market underfunded. at 73 bcm this year. Over time, the EU calculates
that it can close that gap with 19 bcm of renewable gas and 50 bcm of hydrogen by 2030.

The Commission has instructed EU Member States to ensure that gas reserves are 90% filled by
October this year, meaning that the EU will turn to international markets to buy not only the gas it
needs to run its industry and provide domestic demand, however. and the gas needed to complete
its final volume. As the EU competes with more global markets for that gas (including developed
countries like Japan, which rely heavily on foreign gas), gas costs will rise sharply (January 2021,
the Euro per hour megawatt 25: end of February 2022, was € 225 ). This could force some
underdeveloped countries to rely heavily on coal for energy.

As the EU launches a new integrated gas procurement system (as it did with the Covid vaccine), its
purchasing power means that it is inevitable that countries that cannot meet the high demands will
be excluded from the market, with its impact. economic growth and development. On the other
hand, in some countries, such as India and China, which may be on the verge of collapse, European
pull-backs from Russian hydrocarbons represent the opportunity to access gas and oil at a huge
discount that gives their industry short-term competitive advantage.

In the Middle Ages, individual European countries made significant commitments to extract
hydrocarbons from their energy systems. In January this year, Germany bought 55% of its gas; 50%
of its coal; and 35% of its oil comes from Russia. By the end of March, those figures had dropped
to 40% for gas, 24% for coal and 25% for oil. Germany (its energy minister recently described
renewable energy as 'liberal energy') has also committed to reducing its gas demand to less than
10% for domestic consumption by 2024 and an increase from 42% to 80% its electricity supply
since in renewables by 2030. Aimed at prominence, largely due to the fact that, as industry,
transport and heating include electricity, demand for energy will grow exponentially. The increase
in renewable supply from 42-80% requires a close quake at the installed capacity - from 225 TWh
by 2021 to more than 600 TWh by 2030. new nuclear channels) and the rise of Hydrogen as
miraculous fuel continues.

This pressure is welcome: The most recent installment of the IPCC's sixth IPCC report notes that
for the world to meet the 1.5 ° future, gas emissions must increase by 2025 and halve by 2030.
Failure to meet those targets could mean that 8.8% of current agricultural areas will not be

34
productive and that one billion people will be at risk of coastal flooding by 2050.” Global Policy
Watch

13.2. Food
” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has worsened the food security crisis in many African countries,
Human Rights Watch said today. Many countries in East, West, Middle, and Southern Africa rely
on Russia and Ukraine for a significant percentage of their wheat, fertilizer, or vegetable oils
imports, but the war disrupts global commodity markets and trade flows to Africa, increasing
already high food prices in the region. Even countries that import little from the two countries are
indirectly impacted by higher world prices for key commodities. Governments and donors should
ensure affordable food access in Africa by scaling up economic and emergency assistance and
social protection efforts. Otherwise, millions of people across the African continent may experience
hunger.

“Many countries in Africa were already in a food crisis,” said Lena Simet, senior researcher on
poverty and inequality at Human Rights Watch. “Rising prices are compounding the plight of
millions of people thrown into poverty by the Covid-19 pandemic, requiring urgent action by
governments and the international community.”

Under global and African human rights law everyone has the right to sufficient and adequate food.
To protect this right, governments are obligated to enact policies and initiate programs to ensure
that everyone can afford safe and nutritious food. Social protection systems that implement the right
to social security for all can be key instruments for realizing the right to food.

Before the war in Ukraine, countries in East, West, Middle, and Southern Africa, including Angola,
Cameroon, Kenya, and Nigeria, were already grappling with soaring food prices due to extreme
climate and weather events such as floods, landslides, and droughts, and the Covid-19 pandemic,
which disrupted production efforts and global supply chains. Since Russia’s invasion, global food
prices have reached new heights. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO)
Food Price Index, a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food
commodities, increased 12.6 percent from February to March. The March index is the highest it has
been since the measure was created in the 1990s.

35
Russia and Ukraine are among the top five global exporters of barley, sunflowers, and maize, and
account for about a third of the world’s wheat exports. Nigeria, the world’s fourth largest wheat
importer, receives a fourth of its imports from Russia and Ukraine. Cameroon, Tanzania, Uganda,
and Sudan source more than 40 percent of their wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine. The UN
World Food Programme (WFP) buys half of the wheat it distributes around the world from Ukraine.
With the war, supplies are squeezed, and prices rise, including for fuel, increasing the cost for
transporting food in and to the region.” Nairobi

“Russia's invasion of Ukraine has already had a significant impact on food prices. Among them,
Russia and Ukraine export about a quarter of all commercial wheat [i]; more than three-quarters of
the sunflower oil sold [ii] and one-sixth of the corn found worldwide [iii]. It is estimated that 13.5
million tons of wheat and 16 million tons of maize are trapped in the barns of both countries - 23
and 43% respectively expected to be exported by 2021/22 - and are unable to find a marketing
route, as the ship leaves the Black Sea. the ports are gone — but they are gone. Even if ships cannot
move, insurance premiums when they are sent to war zones are unfairly high, as insurers are already
renting their premiums on ships even entering the Black Sea.

The day after Russia attacked Ukraine, Lebanon's economy serve declared the nation of 6.8 million
individuals had sufficient wheat stores to endure only one month.

Russia and Ukraine are significant exporters of farming, which Lebanon relies upon. Ukraine alone
traded more than $27 billion in rural items to the world last year. Around 80% of Lebanon's wheat
comes from Ukraine.So when the conflict began, so did stresses of food deficiencies and cost
climbs.

The impact of the war is not only on the distribution of this year's assets, but on the next - Ukraine
should start its investment period now, but not yet start planting due to the conflict.

Russia is one of the countries that exports three major types of fertilizers - nitrogen, phosphorus
and potassium. Changing those ingredients, along with higher fuel prices, will lead to higher import
costs, which will affect next season's harvest, leading to higher food prices over time.

The World Food Program (which buys 50 percent of Ukraine's wheat) estimates that food costs
have increased by 40% since 2020 and by 3.9% between January and February this year (annual

36
rate of 47%). In more than 40 countries where WFP operates, imported grains such as wheat and
corn make up 30% or more of the food capacity.

One third of Egypt's population now live on less than $ 2 a day. In this category of people, bread is
an important basis for their daily diet. Bread is made from imported wheat (80% of the annual wheat
requirement in Egypt is imported - the government has banned the export of wheat) and is heavily
subsidized. Global wheat prices rose from $ 798 / bushel on February 21 to $ 1043 on April 5 - an
increase of 30%. To give this figure a specific context, the 10% increase in wheat price represents
0.2% of Egypt's GDP, as Egypt needs more money to buy wheat and more money to bridge the gap
between the market and sponsored prices. This combination means that Egypt is forced to ask for
IMF third aid in six years.”

13.3. Problems of Migration and Governance

“These economic and social pressures will lead to political repercussions as the lack of access and
rising food and energy prices are likely to lead to increased migration from Africa to Europe, and
increased feelings of right-wing people. As those right wing groups are also associated with national
programs there are ongoing implications for global supply chains and potential resistance to
international cooperation, at a time when such cooperation is much needed.

In addition to migration, global pressures on enemies of energy and food are dangerous leading to
increasing inequality and social unrest, making governance more difficult and contributing to
regional instability. The consequences of such instability range from the ongoing disruption to the
global supply chain, to the deployment of peacekeepers and the need for much-needed assistance -
all in themselves having global consequences.

At the hour of composing, the public authority was making accessible two fundamental courses for
Ukrainians to come to the UK, in light of the emergency. The first is a visa plot for relatives of
British residents or individuals with extremely durable status in the UK (the Ukraine Family
Scheme, which opened for applications on 4 March 2022). This strategy expects individuals to
apply for a visa from beyond the UK.

The subsequent course was a program that would permit any Ukrainian public, or the close relative
of a Ukrainian public, escaping the contention to come to the UK on the off chance that they can
track down a support inside the local area (the Ukraine Sponsorship Scheme, otherwise called

37
Homes for Ukraine, which opened for applications on 18 March 2022). UK inhabitants can enlist
their advantage in facilitating outcasts in their homes or another home that they own. On 15 March,
the public authority expressed that more than 100,000 UK occupants had enlisted their advantage
in facilitating Ukrainian displaced people in their homes.” World Policy Check

“The Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to large-scale displacement. In the first two months weeks
of the war, more than 5 million people fled the country, according to UN estimate. While Eastern
European countries are at the front lines of this crisis—particularly Poland, but also Hungary,
Slovakia, Moldova and Romania—there has been fraught debate about the UK response.”( Peter &
Madeleine- 2022)

13.4. Stress
“These problems - food and energy shortages, disruption of supply and migration, facing Covid's
ongoing economic and social impact - create a 'stress nexus', which may be exacerbated by the
growing impacts of climate change to increase risk to surrounding communities. Earth. This
combination of disturbances has led some analysts to raise the view of globalalized systemic
disorder.

Inflationary pressures (inflation of 54.4% in Turkey, 50% in Argentina, 10% in Brazil, 9.7% in
Spain) have already led many countries to increase their interest rates (South African rates are
already at 4.5%). The US Federal Reserve is considering a rise in interest rates to offset inflation.
It is worth looking at the history of such an act: six of the eight US interest rates since the early
1980s led to a global recession.

Many companies and countries have already come to the conclusion that the Coronavirus epidemic
is that they need to reduce their business risk to global chains. Their response was to focus more on
maritime production and where that is not the case, reducing their exposure to retail outlets by
bringing their product closer.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to accelerate that trend, which is affecting North Africa's
economy as a region close to Europe's investment portfolio. That trend may conflict with Energy
Transition's demand for a more efficient global supply chain (for example, the DRC produces more
than 70% of the world's cobalt; China produces 65% of the world's finest cobalt; Chile and Australia

38
is the world's leading producer of lithium; and China controls most of the supply chain of lithium-
ion batteries).

In the near future, European competition in the global non-Russian gas markets is likely to continue
to rise in price, having a significant impact on food and migration. New LNG terminals will need
to be built as more LNG tanks will be required. There may be a limited return on coal.

In the medium to long term there may be divisions between Europe and the US. The EU has made
it clear that it will use this problem as a catalyst for a rapid recovery towards renewable energy (and
the UK's new Energy Security Strategy [iv] is following suit). The growing delta between gas costs
and renewable costs makes investing in this even more attractive [v] - although supply chain
disruption puts it at risk of increasing the cost of renewable energy. In the US, high gas prices make
oil and gas prices more attractive not only as a way to shut off the US economy from the need to
import hydrocarbons from overseas, but as a lucrative business itself.

What is clear is that Russia's relentless invasion of Ukraine has changed its mind in ways that we
are just beginning to see. The effects will be long-term and potentially reversible.” World Policy
Check

14. Different countries and their stance regarding the matter

14.1. UNITED STATES
On February 25, President Joe Biden ordered the State Department to release weapons worth up to
$ 350m from US stockpiles in Ukraine. In a memorandum to Secretary of State Antony Blinken,
Biden ordered that $ 350m allocated by Foreign Service Act be set aside to protect Ukraine. Ukraine
has been asking for Javelin anti-tank weapons and Stinger arrows to shoot down planes. The
Pentagon said the weapons include anti-aircraft guns, small arms, body armor and various weapons
to support Ukrainian defenders. A State Department spokesman said anti-aircraft programs were
also included in the case. Last year, the US made more than $ 1bn in security assistance to Ukraine,
Blinken said.

14.2. UNITED KINGDOM

In January, Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said the UK had "decided to provide Ukraine with
simpler defense weapons protection programs". On Wednesday, Downing Street pledged military

39
support to Ukraine, including dangerous self-defense weapons. "Due to the growing alarming
behavior from Russia and in line with our previous support, the UK will soon provide additional
military assistance to Ukraine," Prime Minister Boris Johnson told parliament. "This will include
deadly assistance such as self-defense weapons and non-lethal assistance."

14.3. FRANCE
France, which has already sent aid, is sending more military equipment and fuel. Paris said it had
made previous Ukrainian applications to protect anti-aircraft and digital weapons.

14.4. CHINA:
China has been economically cooperative with Russia but has not kept quiet in expressing support
for or criticizing Russia's invasion of Ukraine, according to the Foreign Relations Council.
However, criticisms of European and US sanctions imposed on Russia for the dispute.

As Russia's conflict in Ukraine proceeds, China's job has been tossed into sharp help. Preceding the
conflict, a few observers proposed that China would transparently agree with Russia or look to go
about as a go between - up to this point Beijing seems to have opposed doing by the same
token."The United States has imposed sanctions on Russia more than 100 times since 2011," said
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin during a news conference on February 25.
"The facts show that sanctions are by no means the most basic or effective solution." Asked by AFP
whether China views Russia's action as an attack, Wang said the sovereignty and integrity of the
international community should be respected and upheld. "At the same time, we recognize that the
Ukraine issue has a complex and special history and we understand Russia's official concerns about
security issues." Finally, Wang said China calls on "all sides to exercise restraint and prevent further
escalation."

14.5. PAKISTAN:
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has met with Putin as Russia continues its offensive in
Ukraine, according to the prime minister's office. However, their meeting was to discuss a wide
range of issues, not just Ukraine. Khan "lamented the recent state of affairs between Russia and
Ukraine and said that Pakistan hoped that negotiations on the war could prevent the military
conflict," the organization said.

40
statement. "The Prime Minister emphasized that conflict is not a matter of personal interest, and
that developing countries are often the worst offenders in the world. He reiterated Pakistan's belief
that conflicts should be resolved through dialogue and negotiation. "No other world leader has met
Putin physically since Russia invaded Ukraine, according to Al Jazeera.

Pakistan has opposed Western strain to censure Moscow for its intrusion of Ukraine, rather
supporting discourse and discretion to end the emergency.

Pakistan has contended that it needs to move away from worldwide alliance governmental issues
to further develop attaches with all nations, including Russia, and to handle its own homegrown
monetary difficulties.

14.6. INDIA:
India's reaction to the Russian intrusion of Ukraine has been particular among the significant
majority rule governments and among U.S. vital accomplices. Regardless of its distress with
Moscow's conflict, New Delhi has embraced a concentrated on open impartiality toward Russia. It
has avoided progressive votes in the UN Security Council, General Assembly, and Human Rights
Council that censured Russian hostility in Ukraine and up to this point has declined to get down on
Russia as the agitator of the emergency transparently. For the overwhelming majority in the United
States, remembering for President Joe Biden's organization, India's lack of bias has been frustrating
on the grounds that it flagged a sharp dissimilarity among Washington and New Delhi on a crucial
issue of worldwide request, in particular, the authenticity of utilizing power to change borders and
involve a one more country's area through an explicit conflict of triumph.

India had historically cooperated with Russia during the Soviet Union, according to the Associated
Press. Similarly, in China, India has not expressed support for or criticism of the Russian invasion.
Indian Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi spoke with Putin over the phone on February 24 about
Ukraine and "reaffirmed that the differences between Russia and the NATO alliance can only be
resolved through honest and sincere negotiations," the media report said. . Modi "called for an
immediate end to the violence, and called on all parties to work together to get back on track." The
prime minister also expressed concern about "the safety of Indian citizens in Ukraine, especially
students."

41
 14.7. IRAN:
Iran's foreign ministry has blamed NATO for Russia's invasion of Ukraine in Feb. 24. "The Ukraine
crisis stems from NATO's provocative measures," the Foreign Ministry wrote. “We believe that
turning to war is not the answer. The establishment of an end to weapons and the focus on political
and democratic solutions must be, ”he added. Iran and Russia are considered allies, according to
the Times of Israel.

14.8. VENEZUELA
The Russian federation, Venezuela in South America, has condemned the US and NATO actions,
saying they have escalated tensions over their actions without blaming Russia, Reuters reported.
"The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela expresses its concern at the escalation of the crisis in
Ukraine, and laments the ridicule and violation of NATO's Minsk agreement, which is being
promoted by the United States of America," the Venezuelan Foreign Ministry said in February. 24,
according to the source. "The abolition of these (Minsk) treaties violated international law and
created strong threats against the Russian Federation, its territorial integrity and sovereignty, and
disrupted good relations between neighboring countries." President Joe Biden, however, has called
the Russian invasion "unreasonable and unreasonable."

14.9. SYRIA
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad spoke to Putin by telephone in Feb. 25 and expressed "strong
support for Russia's special military operations," the Russian Embassy in Sri Lanka wrote in Feb.
25 on Twitter. Al-Assad told Putin that the Russian invasion was "to redress the history and
restoration of equality lost in the world after the breakup of the Soviet Union," according to Al
Jazeera. He also criticized the US and NATO position on the conflict when he spoke with Putin,
according to the Russian Ambassador.

14.10. VENEZUELA
The Russian federation, Venezuela in South America, has condemned the US and NATO actions,
saying they have escalated tensions over their actions without blaming Russia, Reuters reported.
"The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela expresses its concern at the escalation of the crisis in
Ukraine, and laments the ridicule and violation of NATO's Minsk agreement, which is being
promoted by the United States of America," the Venezuelan Foreign Ministry said in February. 24,

42
according to the source. "The abolition of these (Minsk) treaties violated international law and
created strong threats against the Russian Federation, its territorial integrity and sovereignty, and
disrupted good relations between neighboring countries." President Joe Biden, however, has called
the Russian invasion "unreasonable and unreasonable."

14.11. CANADA
On December 2, 1991, Canada turned into the principal western country to perceive Ukraine's
freedom. From that point forward, Canada and Ukraine have partaken in a nearby reciprocal
relationship that traverses participation on security and protection, exchange, and propelling
Ukraine's vote based and monetary change endeavors.

Ottawa sends dangerous military weapons to Ukraine and lends Kyiv half a billion Canadian dollars
($ 394m) to help protect itself.

14.12. GERMANY
Germany turned around a notable approach of never sending weapons to struggle zones, saying the
Russian intrusion of Ukraine was an epochal second that risked the whole post-World War II
request across Europe. The choice was a sudden shift in direction, coming after Berlin stuck to its
underlying situation for quite a long time notwithstanding the rising Russian danger and tension
from EU and NATO partners.

Germany will supply Ukraine with 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger arrows from the top
of the air from the Bundeswehr stockpile for security in Russia. It is a major change from the old
Berlin policy of banning the export of weapons to the conflict zone. "Russia's invasion of Ukraine
marks a turning point. It is our duty to do our utmost to support Ukraine in defending Putin's
invading forces, "German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Saturday.

14.13. BELARUS
"The world will look at Russia and Belarus for their actions," Stoltenberg said on February 25.
"Russia as an invader. Belarus as an authority." Belarus borders Russia and Ukraine in Eastern
Europe and was part of the Soviet Union until independence in 1991, as in Ukraine The country
has expressed its support for Russia's shared invasion of neighboring Russia and other Russian
troops entering Ukraine via Belarus, according to the Associated Press. , a Belarusian human rights

43
leader and politician who was president of the country in 2020, said on February 26. Lukashenko
had opened the door for his country's troops to take part in attacks if necessary.

14.14. CUBA:
Cuba expressed general support for Russia before the offensive began in a statement on February
23 and said the US had "been threatening Russia for weeks and misleading the international
community over the risk of a" close invasion "near Ukraine." Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez
described Russia's “right to self-defense.” He added that the country "promotes a solution for
officials through constructive and respectful dialogue." However, Cuba did not explicitly state
support for the Russian invasion, as noted by the Miami Herald.

14.15. THE NETHERLANDS

The Netherlands will provide air defense rockets and anti-tank systems to Ukraine, the Dutch
government said in a letter to parliament on Saturday. The Dutch government approved Ukraine's
request for the immediate deployment of 200 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and 50 "Panzerfaust 3"
anti-aircraft missiles against 400 rockets, the letters said. It is also considering joining forces to
send a Patriot air defense program with Germany to the NATO military force in Slovakia, it
said.The Netherlands needs the accompanying:

It should be clarified that Russia's hostility is unsatisfactory and that it will have extreme
ramifications for Russia. The Netherlands denounces Russia's attack of Ukraine in the most
grounded potential terms.

An enormous bundle of EU sanctions should be forced on Russia. The Netherlands believes that
weighty approvals should be forced on Russia. It is significant for the EU part states to arrive at an
agreement on this. Sanctions against Russia will likewise influence the Dutch economy. That is
unavoidable with an open economy like their own.

14.16. SWEDEN, NOWAY AND DENMARK

Stockholm also violated its historic neutrality by sending 5,000 anti-tank weapons to Ukraine, with
Denmark donating an additional 2,700. Norway ships up to 2,000 M72 anti-tank armor and anti-
tank weapons.

44
 14.17. FINLAND
Neutral Finland takes a “historic” decision to supply weapons to Ukraine and will send 1,500 rocket
launchers, 2,500 rifles, 150,000 rounds of ammunition, and 70,000 rounds of ammunition.

14.18. BELGIUM
Belgium says it will provide Ukraine with an additional 3,000 automatic rifles and 200 anti-tank
weapons, as well as 3,800 tons of fuel.

14.19. PORTUGAL
Portugal offers Ukraine nightgowns, bulletproof vests, helmets, grenades, ammunition and G3
automatic rifles.

14.20. GREECE
Greece, which has a large Ukrainian population - 10 of them have been killed - is sending "defense
equipment" and humanitarian aid.

14.21. EROMANIA
Romania - which shares borders with Ukraine - provides treatment for wounded people from critical
areas in its 11 military hospitals as well as the delivery of petrol, bullet-proof vests, helmets and
other "military equipment" costing $ 3.3m.

14.22. SPAIN
Spain says it will supply Ukraine with 1,370 land mines, 700,000 grenade launchers and automatic
weapons.

14.23. CZECH REPUBLIC

Prague said on Saturday it would send Ukraine 4,000 rifles "in the next few hours" as well as 30,000
rounds of ammunition, 7,000 rifles, 3,000 rifles, several sniper rifles and a million rounds of
ammunition. The Czechs had already promised Kyiv 4,000 mortars worth $ 1.6m still to be
delivered.

14.24. E-CROATIA
Zagreb will send 16 million euros worth of small arms and light weapons.

45
 14.25. SWITZERLAND
Switzerland has voiced its commitment to a political solution, urging Russia to withdraw its troops
from Ukraine. "Switzerland condemns Russia's intervention against Ukraine and urges Russia to
immediately stop military violence and withdraw its troops from Ukraine," he said.

14.26. AUSTRIA
Describing the latest developments in Ukraine as a "dark hour," Austrian Foreign Minister
Alexander Schallenberg on Friday said Russia's actions were "unlawful attacks" on an independent
nation in Europe. "Our expectations have been fulfilled: There is war on the European continent
and Ukraine has been the victim of another act of military violence by Russia," Schallenberg told
the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. "This violates the most important laws
of international order and international law." He also added that Austria is standing in "complete
unity" with Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. He also urged Russia to lay down its arms, withdraw
from Ukraine, and return to the negotiating table.

14.27. IRELAND
Ireland also voiced its support for the Ukrainian sovereignty and integrity by calling on Russia's
decision to recognize the Ukrainian regional insurgency in Donetsk and Luhansk in violation of the
Intl. rules. "Ireland's support for the Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity between its
internationally recognized borders and its right to choose its own foreign policy and security policy
is unwavering," Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said in a statement. "Russia's decision to continue
the recognition of Ukraine's state-owned territories in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions as
independent organizations is a clear violation of Ukraine's territorial integrity, and marks a clear
violation of the Minsk agreement," added Coveney. He said Ireland supports "a clear and strong
EU response, which includes additional sanctions."

14.28. GULF COUNTRIES:

The Gulf Arabs have so far adopted a vague position on Russian violence in Ukraine. As close
associates of the U.S. they too have cold ties with Russia, they live between a rock and a hard place,
they are clearly unwilling to oppose either side. They joined the summit because of what they saw
as a growing US withdrawal from the Middle East. They answered, they

46
began an effort to sever their security ties, based solely on reliance on the US. Russia is one of these
new partners. The UAE has refused to vote for a UNGA decision condemning Russia's invasion
and later clarified its position by encouraging both sides to negotiate as taking sides will lead to
more violence. Qatar has called for an agreement to recognize the integrity of Ukraine and Kuwait,
which also criticized Russia's use of violence, but Riyadh appears to be heavily reliant on Russia
when it calls on the US to pump more crude oil into its "commitment" to its OPEC + agreement.
and Russia.

14.29. ISRAEL:
Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Israel has been involved in a critical measurement measurement -
determined by its geopolitics. Israel has strong ties with Russia & Ukraine: Israeli Prime Minister
Naphtali Bennett has spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelenskyy since the war began, and has promised to act as a mediator; Israel sees itself,
in fact, sharing the border with Russia in northeastern Syria, relying on Putin's continued
acknowledgment of airstrikes on Iranian targets there; a large number of Jews and Israelis live in
Russia and Ukraine and more than 1.5 million Russian and Ukrainian immigrants live in Israel; and
Israel is a major U.S. alliance. and a beneficiary who identifies the Western “free democracy”.

14.30. Turkey
The Ukrainian conflict is a major problem in Turkey. It not only threatens to undermine Ankara's
relations with Moscow, but also damages the Turkish economy, raising energy costs and preventing
Russian and Ukrainian tourists from visiting Turkey. Some analysts estimate that a drop in tourism
could mean up to $ 6 billion in lost revenue. Turkey has voiced strong support for Ukraine's
sovereignty and territorial integrity, but has also sought to reduce tensions with Russia and to
abstain from voting with Russia at the European Council on February 25. On March 1, Presidential
spokesman Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced that Turkey would not impose sanctions on Russia,
citing "national interests" and the belief that "there should be a character who can talk to Russia".
Ankara has also been a strong advocate for additional support for Ukraine, and President Erdoğan
criticized NATO and the EU simply for criticizing Russia's actions and for not taking concrete steps
toA help Ukraine.

47
15. Possible Solutions (Personal Opinion)
Viewing the basic principle of United Nations and UN charter. Article V, 24, 41 and 42 of chapter
VII of UN charter also viewing Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances signed on 5
December 1994 between Belarus, Ukraine, Russia, USA, UK, and Kazakhstan and the Minsk
agreements signed on 5 September 2014 by representatives of Trilateral Contact Group.

● All countries residing in the United Nations should maintain the imposed sanctions on
Russia as it violated the charter of UN.
● UFO- Ukraine Funding Organization to be established, with the agenda of raising $1
billion from nations part of the NATO to help recover the loss of infrastructure by the
Ukraine.
● Bordering countries of Ukraine should open evacuation corridors and provide
humanitarian assistance to help refugees:
a) in accordance with the UNHCR and UNHRC to provide funds to build bomb shelters and
launch a humanitarian aid mission;

b) sending in U.S military F-15s to increase defense against further invasion while
Ukrainians are still on the move;

● Belarus takes back the 40-mile convoy of Russian military vehicles launched in the
direction of Ukrainian borders.
● Russia should pay compensation of $150 million to repair infrastructural damage and to
reimburse deaths of the Ukrainian soldiers and civilians
● Ukraine to demand military assistance, war machines and arsenal from Russia to ensure its
security and no future invasions in return Ukraine should not join NATO.
● Russia to sign an agreement to not raise any conflicts for the following decade.
● Ukraine is an independent democratic nation, and that Russia is no longer rightful of
Ukraine’s land.

48
16. References
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/26/world/europe/ukraine-russia-tensions-timeline.html

https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine

https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/03/ukraine-apparent-war-crimes-russia-controled-areas

https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/blog/ukraines-war-economic-impacts

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60125659

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/the-big-story/how-will-the-russia-ukraine-war-
reshape-the-world-here-are-four-possible-futures/

https://www.mei.edu/publications/ways-forward-war-ukraine

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/02/24/what-s-really-behind-putin-s-invasion-of-
ukraine

https://www.npr.org/2022/04/20/1092640126/russia-ukraine-war-food-security-united-nations

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00969-9

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/04/ukraine-war-global-trade-
risk/#:~:text=War%20in%20Ukraine%20is%20causing,Ukraine%20conflict%2C%20the%20WT
O%20says.

https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/migration-and-the-ukraine-crisis/

https://reliefweb.int/report/world/war-ukraine-raises-new-questions-eu-foreign-policy

https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/04/28/ukraine/russia-war-continues-africa-food-crisis-
looms#:~:text=The%20global%20food%20and%20fuels,meat%2C%20fish%2C%20and%20fruit.

https://www.bond.org.uk/news/2022/03/the-wider-implications-of-the-ukraine-crisis

https://theconversation.com/ukraine-why-china-is-not-yet-bailing-out-russia-179403

https://www.government.nl/topics/russia-and-ukraine/the-netherlands-position

49
https://www.international.gc.ca/world-monde/issues_development-
enjeux_developpement/response_conflict-reponse_conflits/crisis-crises/ukraine-
situation.aspx?lang=eng

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-russia-germany-still-blocking-arms-supplies/

https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/04/25/what-is-in-our-interest-india-and-ukraine-war-pub-
86961

https://www.voanews.com/a/pakistan-vows-neutrality-in-ukraine-crisis-insists-ties-with-us-on-
track/6472206.html

50