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Cowen Healthcare 10 March 2010
Cowen Healthcare 10 March 2010
2009
m
2008
m
% Ch Change CER 3 2 16 16 12
-13%
US growth rate impacted by losses to generics
US Pharma 9.2bn
+20%
+9%
By region
SSA MENA China*
m
Top markets
(+16%)
(+10%)
6%) (+6
(+6%)
(+36%)
(+28%)
(+56%)
1
CIS
Mexico Latina
South Asia
GSK ranking #
11
13
16
*China includes HK Source: Turnover and growth is GSK 2009 as reported. Growth rates are CER. Rankings are IMS MAT Dec 09 Emerging markets by industry definitions incl Consumer and additional markets was 5.6bn (+16%)
(+ +22%)
1
4
* Core includes 378m related to 2009 bolt-on acquisitions (e.g. Stiefel and transactions in EMs). ** Influenza includes Relenza and vaccines related to annual influenza, H5N1 pre-pandemic and H1N1 pandemic pandemic. *** Products impacted by generics comprises US sales of Coreg, Imitrex, Lamictal, Paxil, Requip, Valtrex, Wellbutrin and Zofran plus Europe sales of Imitrex, Lamictal, Paxil and Zofran.
5
4,977m 3,706m 3 706 546m 546 530m 477m 477 450m 254m 254 169m 142m 142 11,971m 8,903m 8 903 20,874m
+5% +30% +8% 8% +16% +26% 26% +31% +29% 29% +45% +72% 72% +23% +1% 1% +12%
6
720m >100%
Subtotal
Hiberix Hib i
Pandemrix
US
US
2007
Sales from 2007-09 launches; CER growth rates
2008
2009
7
MAGE-3
OTC Medicines
2.3bn (+8%)
4.7bn +7%
CER growth rates
9
2008
m
Turnover Cost of goods SG&A: C SG&A Core Legal costs g Total SG&A
10
+0.6% +1.2%
-0.6% +0.1%
25.0% % 23.7%
2008
OE savings
Other
2009
11
2008
Pensions / Other
2009
12
2008
m
% Change CER 3 13 6 2 16 23 25 13 3
Turnover Cost of goods SG&A R&D & Other oper. income p Operating profit
28,368 (7,095)
25.0%
24,352 (5,776)
23.7%
(9,200) (9 200)
32.4%
(7,352) (7 352)
30.2%
(1)
12
13
541m
2009
2008
14
Dividends
Acquisitions
15%
15%
15%
10%
10%
10%
IRR
5%
5%
5%
0%
0%
0%
1. McKinsey, Nature Reviews, Drug Discovery (Aug 09) for small molecules. 13% for biopharms. 2. We have estimated the projected rate of return based on the investment made to create our late stage pipeline and our expectations on future long term sales performance. Our current late-stage portfolio includes pharma assets (eg small molecules and biopharms) and vaccines launched from 2007 onwards plus current phase IIb & III pipeline.
16
Highlights
GSK returned to growth in 2009: +3% CER Diversification is progressing well: Stiefel, HIV R t t i saving h b Restructuring i has been reinvested i growth markets i t d in th k t Additional restructuring will deliver significant savings
(500m b 2012 70% t th b tt (500 by 2012; ~70% to the bottom line) li )
R&D model is working and new product flow is improving Actions ongoing to improve returns in R&D Strong cash g g generation continued in 09: FCF of 5.3bn ( (+12%) ) Dividend growth continues (+7% to 61 pence) Disclosure of operating profit components within each segment
begins 1Q10
17
18