Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • 12 views

    5

    Uploaded by

    陈思旖（천쓰이）
    This document summarizes key concepts about the bullwhip effect from Module 5. 1. The bullwhip effect occurs when demand and order variability increases as information moves up the supply chain. Small changes at the retail level can cause large swings in manufacturer orders. 2. The bullwhip effect is caused by factors like forecasting methods, batch ordering, promotional activities, and inflated orders placed in response to uncertainty. 3. Sharing demand information and integrating systems across the supply chain can help mitigate the bullwhip effect through more accurate forecasts, reduced lead times, and coordinated planning.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content

    You might also like

    5

    Uploaded by

    陈思旖（천쓰이）
    12 views11 pages
    This document summarizes key concepts about the bullwhip effect from Module 5. 1. The bullwhip effect occurs when demand and order variability increases as information moves up the supply chain. Small changes at the retail level can cause large swings in manufacturer orders. 2. The bullwhip effect is caused by factors like forecasting methods, batch ordering, promotional activities, and inflated orders placed in response to uncertainty. 3. Sharing demand information and integrating systems across the supply chain can help mitigate the bullwhip effect through more accurate forecasts, reduced lead times, and coordinated planning.

    Original Description:

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

    Available Formats

    PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    Report this Document
    This document summarizes key concepts about the bullwhip effect from Module 5. 1. The bullwhip effect occurs when demand and order variability increases as information moves up the supply chain. Small changes at the retail level can cause large swings in manufacturer orders. 2. The bullwhip effect is caused by factors like forecasting methods, batch ordering, promotional activities, and inflated orders placed in response to uncertainty. 3. Sharing demand information and integrating systems across the supply chain can help mitigate the bullwhip effect through more accurate forecasts, reduced lead times, and coordinated planning.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as pdf or txt
    12 views11 pages

    5

    Uploaded by

    陈思旖（천쓰이）
    This document summarizes key concepts about the bullwhip effect from Module 5. 1. The bullwhip effect occurs when demand and order variability increases as information moves up the supply chain. Small changes at the retail level can cause large swings in manufacturer orders. 2. The bullwhip effect is caused by factors like forecasting methods, batch ordering, promotional activities, and inflated orders placed in response to uncertainty. 3. Sharing demand information and integrating systems across the supply chain can help mitigate the bullwhip effect through more accurate forecasts, reduced lead times, and coordinated planning.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 11

    Module 5:

    정보의 가치

    1
    강의 개요

     Readings
     Chapter 5

     च⎒
     Bullwhip Effect
     ┓᧲ ৳␞⌾ ৳ଇᶪᾪ⑖ ḯ৺ चḞ

    2
    Bullwhip Effect

     Bullwhip Effect(⥂⤋㎦৺)
     ৳ଇᶪᾪ⑖ ᶿ␂࿦ূᕚ 〉ᑺऎ⋎ ሮᑺ ◺ᠶᓇ/ᷛᶮᓇ⑖ ᦾთル⑲ ⯢⚾ྒ ㌂ᶿ
    • ⩚▃ ৞छ ἖⎒⑖ ᦾთ⑲ ⒏ၒᑺჂ ৳ଇᶪᾪ⑖ ࣿ ࿦ূ⋎Ḛ ᶿ␂ ࿦ূᕚ⑖ ◺ᠶᓇ
    ⑖ ᦾ㍒ル⑲ ┎┎ ၒ ⯢⚾ྒ ㌂ᶿ
    • ⌆: P&G⑖ 1㎊⎧ ମ⓾ા  ≆┓⓿ ἖⎒, ૶ᓪඖ Ẋᛢ┎⑖ ◺ᠶᓇ, Ⴢᛢ┎⑖ ◺
    ᠶᓇ, ᷛᶮ⋃⦲⑖ ᷛᶮᓇ ᤍ (⏎⒎⒪) ◺ᠶᓇ␾ ⵮ ル␺ᕚ ᦾ㍒
     ሮᑺḚ ৺⒇ ⒪৞ ጎྒ ৳ଇ ᩾╯ ᇯ⑲ ᤚᷛ ࣾྣ  ৳ଇ ᶪᾪ │⦲⑖ ᭂ⎧ ⚛ࣾ

    3
    Bullwhip Effect

     Bullwhip Effect⑖ ⏎⑶
     ἖⎒ ⌆⬟৺ ⒪৞ ৾ᚪ ମᦓ: 『ᛢῢ⓿⑲ ᦾ㍒㉖ᝲ ἖⎒⌆⬟Ⴢ ᦾ㍒㉖ᢾᕚ ⒎⋮ᾢᓻঊ
    ◺ᠶᓇჂ ᦾ㍒
    • Periodic Review Policy⑖ Base-stock level = (Review Period + Lead
    time)თ≆⑖ デ૞ ἖⎒ + ≆│⒪৞(ㅚ◾ザ⤦, ᚪᇚⶾ⒂)
    • デ૞ ἖⎒⌾ ㅚ◾ザ⤦ྒ ἖⎒⌆⬟⋎ ⑖㉲ ম┓ᄦ  ሮᑺḚ ᷆ᕚ⎲ 『ᛢῢ⓿ ၮ⑲
    ⸮ࣾ ἖⛏ᄖᝲ ମ╲⑖ デ૞৺ ㅚ◾ザ⤦ྒ ᦾ㍒  ◺ᠶᓇ ᦾ㍒
    • ⩚▃ ৞छ ἖⎒⑖ ᦾ㍒  ⌆⬟἖⎒(デ૞ ᤍ ㅚ◾ザ⤦)⑖ ᦾ㍒  ◺ᠶᓇ⑖ ᦾ㍒
    cf. ⌆⬟ ἖⎒⋎ ⑖㉲ ◺ᠶ/ᷛᶮ㉖ྒ ঻⎮ ⥂⤋㎦৺ྒ ᤖᇚῚ ᤚᷛ
     ᚪᇚⶾ⒂
    • თ⑺㉚ ╮ॲ⋎Ḛ ᚪᇚⶾ⒂⑲ ଶ⊲⛆἖ᕛ ◺ᠶᓇ⑖ ᦾ㍒ྒ ၒ ⯢⚾ঊ ᄦ(why?)
     Batch Ordering
    • ᭂ⎧ ┆ऎ(◺ᠶ/ᷛᶮᭂ⎧, ⎲ẟᭂ⎧ ᇯ)⑂ ␂㉲ ᣶ᒖ⑖ ⑺┓ ମं⑖ ἖⎒ᙺ ឦ≂
    Ḛ ㉚஺ᦆ⋎ ◺ᠶ ጎྒ ᷛᶮ
    • ሮᑺḚ ࿾ᓇ ◺ᠶ ㏂ ⑺┓ ମं თ≆ ◺ᠶ⑲ ⋄৞ ࿢Ὶ ࿾ᓇ ◺ᠶ⑲ ᤖ᧳ᄖྒ ㌂ᶿ
    ⑲ ᤚᷛ

    4
    Bullwhip Effect

     Bullwhip Effect⑖ ⏎⑶(ূẋ)


     ࣾধ ᦾთ(ጎྒ Promotion ┓⥃)
    • Ẋᛢ┎⑲ ࣾধ⑲ Ὼ Ὶମ⋎ ࿾ᓇ ੪ᛢ
    – ৳ଇ⋃⦲⑖ ⾷『 ጎྒ ┓ମ⓿ ࣾধ ㉞⑶
    cf. Forward buying  ◺ᠶᓇ ᦾთ ㍓࿾
     Inflated Orders(⌆ᶿᄖྒ ৳ଇ᩾╯⋎ ࿾㉚ ࿾⑏)
    • ৳ଇ᩾╯⑲ ⌆ᶿᄖᝲ Ẋᛢ┎␾ ◺ᠶᓇ⑂ ῢ┚ ἖⎒᧲࿢ ৺࿢㉖ঊ ⥃┓(Phantom
    order)
    – ঻Ⓙ⋃⦲᧲࿢ ᛌ␾ ⊏⑂ ㍓᧲㉖ମ ␂㉲
    • ᩾ㅾᔢ⛂ ἖⎒ ┓᧲ᕚ ⑶㉲ ⍚য়ᄚ ἖⎒ ࣾྣḯ(MTS-MTO ৳ଇᶪᾪ)

    5
    Bullwhip Effect

     Bullwhip Effect ূᓇ㍒


     Bullwhip effect⑖ ┓Ⴢᙺ ূᓇ㍒
    • ⚇, ἖⎒ᦾთ ࿾ᭂ ◺ᠶᓇ⑖ ᦾთ⑂ ূᓇ㍒
     ἖⎒⌆⬟ ମᦓ⑲ ࿦Ἒ ⑲თデ૞ᦓ(p च⑖ ἖⎒ ၮ⑲⸮ ᶪ⎧)⑺ ቊ ⑺ᤖ⓿␺ᕚ
    bullwhip effectྒ
    • ᚪᇚⶾ⒂⑲ ଶ⊲⛆἖ᕛ ⯢⛎
    • p⑖ च἖ࣾ ᛌ≂⛆἖ᕛ ⒏≂⛎  ⚇ ἖⎒ၮ⑲⸮⑖ デ◾㍒ ㎦৺ࣾ ⵲἖ᕛ ⒏≂⛎
    Var (Q ) 2 L 2 L2
     1  2
    Var ( D ) p p

    6
    Bullwhip Effect

     Bullwhip Effect ূᓇ㍒ – ἖⎒ ┓᧲⑖ ৳␞ ㎦৺


     ৳ଇᶪᾪ⑖ ࣿ ࿦ূ⋎Ḛ ῢ┚ ἖⎒┓᧲ᙺ ৳␞㉖ᝲ bullwhip effectࣾ ऎẊ㉦
    2i 1 Li 2(i 1 Li ) 2
    k k
     ৳␞㉖ྒ ঻⎮ Var (Q k )
     1 
    Var ( D ) p p2
     ৳␞㉖⚾ ≈ྒ ঻⎮: ⚇ ⩚▃ ৞छ ἖⎒ࣾ ≂࿊ ㉖␂ ࿦ূ⑖ ◺ᠶ ┓᧲ ᶪ⎧
    Var (Q k ) k
    2 Li 2 L2i
      (1   2 )
    Var ( D) i 1 p p
     ሮᑺḚ ἖⎒ ┓᧲ᙺ ৳␞㉖ᝲ ⥂⤋ ㎦৺ᙺ ⵪ঊ ☂⑺ ἖ ⒆⑊(⍂│㒆 ⋄≞⚾ྒ ឹ㉖⚾
    ᛊ)

    7
    Bullwhip Effect

     Bullwhip Effectᙺ ☂⑲ྒ ᤧᦓᇢ


     ┓᧲ ৳␞⋎ ⑖㉚ ᪆㍓ῢḯ ऎẊ
     ৞छ ἖⎒ ᦾთḯ ऎẊ
    • ⾷㒆 ⾷『, ┓ମ⓿ ࣾধ ㉞⑶ ᇯ⋎ ⑖㉚ ἖⎒⑖ ᦾთḯ⑂ ऎẊῚⶲ
    • ⌆: EDLP (Everyday Low Price): ᶿῚ ⩚⓾ ࣾধ ᧲⒣
     ᚪᇚ ⶾ⒂ ऎẊ
    • ᚪᇚ ⶾ⒂ = Order lead time(ᷛᶮ, ᤮ẟ ᇯ) + Information lead time(◺
    ᠶ ┓᧲ ⦖ᚪ)
    • Information lead time␾ EDI (Electronic Data Interchange) Ὶᾢ⹚ ੪
    ⪓ ᇯ⑂ ⺳㉲ ㎋ମ⓿␺ᕚ ऎẊ ࣾྣ
    • Order lead time␾ cross-docking, picking/sorting ⦲ূ चḞ␺ᕚ ऎẊ ࣾ
    ྣ
     │ᒳ⓿ ┚㐲
    • │ᒳ⓿ ┚㐲⋎ ⑖㉚ ┓᧲ ৳␞ ᤍ ⒪৞ ┓⥃ चḞ
    ⌆: VMI (Vendor Managed Inventory): Ẋᛢ┎ ⒪৞ᙺ ৳ଇ⋃⦲ࣾ ⚿┏ ৾ᚪ

    8
    정보 공유

     ┓᧲ ৳␞⑖ ࣾ⭖
     ἖⎒/৳ଇ ৾ᔦ ┓᧲ᇢ
    • ἖⎒ ┓᧲
    • ࣾধ ┓⥃, ⾷『, ῞┚ㆆ ⪚Ὶ ূ㎋
    • ⒪৞ ἖◾ ᤍ ᷛᶮ ┓᧲
    • ⎲ẟ ┓᧲
     ৳ଇᶪᾪ⑂ ੪ḯ㉖ྒ ࣿ ࿦ূ⋎Ḛ ⩚▃ ἖⎒ ᤍ ࿢ᙶ ࿦ূ⑖ ূ㎋⋎ ⋿㊣⑂ ᣶⭞
    ἖ ⒆ྒ ⋪ᓪ ┓᧲ᙺ ᧲␞㉖৞ ⒆⑊
     ⑺ᤖ⓿␺ᕚ ᛌ␾ ┓᧲ᙺ ৳␞㉞἖ᕛ ৳ଇᶪᾪ │⦲⑖ ḯྣ⑲ चḞᄦ  Global
    optimization
    • ⌆ᙺ ᇢ⊲ Ẋᛢ┎⋎Ḛ ┓㍓㉚ ἖⎒ᙺ ⌆⬟㉖ᔢᝲ ㌂⒪ ৞छ ἖⎒ ⍶⋎ ৳ଇ⋃⦲⑖
    ࣾধ ┓⥃, ῞┚ㆆ ⪚Ὶ ূ㎋ ᇯ⋎ ࿾㉚ ┓᧲ࣾ ㉂⎒㉦
    • ৳ଇ⋃⦲ྒ Ẋᛢ┎⑖ 『ᛢ ၮ⑲⸮, Ẋᛢ┎ ⒎⦲⑖ ࣾধ ┓⥃, ⾷『 ূ㎋, ঻Ⓙ ┚
    ㆆ ⒃┎ ᇯ⑖ ┓᧲ᙺ ㍚⎧㉖⋪ ┓㍓㉚ ἖⎒ ⌆⬟ ࣾྣ
     ሮᑺḚ ┓᧲ ৳␞ྒ ৳ଇ ᶪᾪ⋎Ḛ Global optimization⑂ ࿪ḯ㉞ ἖ ⒆ྒ ମ᧶⓿⑶
    ⎒ॲ⒂

    Discussion: ┓᧲৳␞ࣾ ඖᵚ ⋿㊣⑂ ᣶⭖ྒ ঻⎮ྒ ⋄⑂୊?


    9
    정보 공유

     ┓᧲ ৳␞⌾ ⑶Ḻ⿮ᬊ
     ૶ᓪඖ ㌂ῢ⓿␺ᕚ ┓᧲ ৳␞ᙺ ⊲ᔳঊ ㉖ྒ ⎒⑶ᇢ⑲ ╲⒪
     ⌆ᙺ ᇢ⊲ Ẋᛢ┎⑖ 『ᛢ┓᧲ ৳␞ࣾ ঻Ⓙ⋃⦲⑖ 『ᛢ│ᒳ⋎ ⑲⎧ᄞ ἖Ⴢ ⒆⑊  ┓᧲
    ৳␞ᙺ ␂㉚ ῞ᖮ ৾ূ ੪⪓ ㉂⎒
     ጎ㉚, MTS – MTO ৳ଇᶪᾪ⑖ ঻⎮ ἖⎒⋃⦲ࣾ inflated demand ┓᧲ᙺ ৳ଇ⋃⦲
    ⋎ ┚৳㉞ ἖Ⴢ ⒆⑊

     ┓᧲ ৳␞⋎ ⑖㉚ ㎦৺⓿⑶ ἖⎒ ⌆⬟
     ┓㍓㉚ ἖⎒⌆⬟⑂ ␂㉲Ḛྒ ࿢⊏㉚ ┓᧲ࣾ ㉂⎒
    • ৞छ ἖⎒, ࣾধ ┓⥃, ⾷『 ূ㎋, ῞┚ㆆ ⪚Ὶ ূ㎋ ᇯ
     CPFR (Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment)
    • Wal-Martࣾ ⦖⑊ Ⴢ⒃
    • ৳ଇᶪᾪ⑂ ੪ḯ㉖ྒ ࣿ ࿦ূ ं⑖ ㌏⋃⋎ ⑖㉚ ⌆⬟, ূ㎋, ⒪৞ ᧲⪧

    10
    정보 공유

     ┓᧲ ৳␞ᙺ ⺳㉚ ⾶ᔆ⑲ᇚ ⌢㈂ 《ਲ
     ㎦৺⓿⑶ ┓᧲ ৳␞ྒ ࿢⊏㉚ ⾶ᔆ⑲ᇚ ⌢㈂ ৾ূᙺ ถ⊲Ḣ ἖ ⒆⑊
    • ⌆: Ḛᭂᾢ ἖◾৺ ≆│⒪৞
     Machine Learning/Predictive Analytics
     Information replaces inventory

    11

    You might also like