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Emarketer - Insider - Intelligences - China - Trends - To - Watch - in - 2022 - Emarketer
Emarketer - Insider - Intelligences - China - Trends - To - Watch - in - 2022 - Emarketer
Emarketer - Insider - Intelligences - China - Trends - To - Watch - in - 2022 - Emarketer
Ethan Cramer-Flood,
Man-Chung Cheung
Note: includes products or services ordered using the internet via any device, regardless of
the method of payment or fulfillment; excludes travel and event tickets, payments such as bill
pay, taxes or money transfers, food services and drinking place sales, gambling and other
vice good sales; *excludes Hong Kong
Source: eMarketer, May 2021
271058 eMarketer | InsiderIntelligence.com
Contents
2 Insider Intelligence’s China Trends to Watch in 2022
3 Introduction
3 Trend: China's Booming Ecommerce Growth Will
Moderate More Quickly Than Expected
3 Trend: Alibaba's Core Ecommerce Operations Will
Survive China's Anti-Monopoly Tech Crackdown
4 Trend: Dominant Sharing Economy and Food Delivery
Players Will See Profits and Market Power Diluted
5 Trend: Short-Form Video Players Will Become
Formidable Ecommerce Players
6 Trend: With the Metaverse Looming, Virtual Experiences
Will Come to the Fore
7 Read Next
7 Sources
7 Editorial and Production Contributors
But there are headwinds, as China’s economy and business Major online sellers will be affected, but there will still
environment is not what it once was: Retail sales growth be bright spots. Alibaba, JD.com, and Pinduoduo (PDD)
has declined dramatically from its heyday, and government will all see slowed retail ecommerce growth in 2022, though
regulators have been on the anti-monopoly prowl for over a PDD is still at the tail end of its explosive growth stage. But
year. What does all this forebode for China’s biggest digital there will be two silver linings: Livestreaming ecommerce will
economy players? increase 60.0% in China next year with social livestreaming
sales growing 61.1%.
20.0% 18.5%
13.0% 11.0% 9.0% Trend: Alibaba's Core Ecommerce
Operations Will Survive China's
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Anti-Monopoly Tech Crackdown
Retail ecommerce sales % change
Note: includes products or services ordered using the internet via any device, regardless of Alibaba Group’s ecommerce properties—Taobao, Tmall,
the method of payment or fulfillment; excludes travel and event tickets, payments such as bill
pay, taxes or money transfers, food services and drinking place sales, gambling and other
vice good sales; *excludes Hong Kong
etc.—will navigate the “techlash” and consolidate their
Source: eMarketer, May 2021
positions as China's dominant ecommerce platforms.
271058 eMarketer | InsiderIntelligence.com
Alibaba Retail Ecommerce Sales in China*, ■ Alibaba will gain more than WeChat from the
2019-2022 opening of the companies’ respective walled
trillions and % change gardens. Alibaba will develop new mini programs
$1.329 within WeChat and will benefit from the new ability to
$1.209 place outbound links within WeChat. As a result, it will
$1.042 eventually see significant gains in social commerce.
$0.920
■ Alibaba’s long-term prospects will be constrained
by China’s slowing consumer spending growth.
However, its challenges with government regulators will
fade and will largely be able to defend its market share.
JD.com and PDD are growing faster for now, but that’s
16.0%
14.0% 13.2%
10.0%
mainly because they are coming from smaller bases.
Predictions
■ The new rules will result in a rash of new local
12.2%
and regional competitors to emerge in 2022 and 8.3% 7.8% 6.5% 5.0%
beyond. Some of these new competitors will develop
into unicorn-level startups and become nationally 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
significant. New anti-monopoly M&A rules will prevent Douyin users % change % of smartphone users
the incumbents from acquiring these firms. Note: internet users who access their Douyin account via any device at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, Nov 2021
271421 eMarketer | InsiderIntelligence.com
Sources
ByteDance
Kuaishou
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