Lecture 05 - System Dynamics

Pramod Parajuli
Simulation and Modeling, CS-331
Chapter 5
System Dynamics
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(C) Pramod Parajuli, 2004
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Source: www.csitnepal.com
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Introduction
Control theory – analysis of response of a system for

given input signal
Dynamics
Dynamic change in lots of parameters of systems
Study of influence of parameters on the stability or growth
of the system
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Exponential Growth and Decay Models
- Rate of change
- Let k is the fraction of the capital that
determines the interest
dx
dt
= kx x = x0 e kt
x = x0 at t = 0
- In other words, logarithm of the variable
increases linearly with time
Decay - same as growth model except the initial

value decays dx
l
− kt
= −kx x = x0 .e
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dt
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x = x0
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Modified exponential growth models
If the max./min. value is limited by some aount

dx
= k ( X − x)
e.g. house holds and dt
air conditioners x = X (1 − e − kt )
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Logistic Curves
The modified exponential growth model gives large

slope at beginning
But the reality is somehow different
A logistic function is a combination of exponential
l
and modified exponential function that describes
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the real process
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Logistic Curves
Modeled using;
dx
= k .x.( X − x)
dt
If x is very smaller than X, then (X-x) will be x,
(starting point)
dx
= k . X .x
dt
Again, if x is very much near to X, (saturation point)
dx
= k . X .( X − x)
dt
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System Dynamics Diagrams
Source
Flow of tangible entities
causal relationships
Rate Constant
AUX VAR Auxiliary Variable
Sink
LEVEL Reservoir
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Causal Loop Diagrams in Systems
Causal loop diagrams (CLD’s) are a way of

attempting to understand some of the inter-
relationships which occur within all systems and
processes. They trace cause and effect through
a system and, in particular, try to model
feedback.
POPULATION BIRTH
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Causal Loop Diagrams in Systems
+
POPULATION BIRTH
+
- +
DEATH POPULATION BIRTH
+
+
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Vensim PLE – Simple dynamic model
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Block variable (level)– Population (initial value

1000)
Rate – births
Births – governed by birth rate – (Population *
birth rate)
Constant - Birth rate – constant factor (0.12)
Population
births
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birth rate
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Steps – drawing the diagrams

- Use block variable tool to draw ‘Population’
block
- Use rate tool to draw ‘births’ rate control
- Use variable tool to draw ‘birth rate’
- Draw arrow from ‘birth rate’ to ‘births’ to
indicate the influence of ‘birth rate’ on
number of births
- Draw arrow from ‘Population’ level to
‘births’ to indicate the production of
‘Population’ and ‘birth rate’ results into the
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actual number of ‘births’
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Steps – the equations

- Click on ‘equations’ tool
- All the variables that need an equation are
highlighted. If the variable is already been
defined by an equation, then the variable will
not be highlighted
- Click on the variable and enter the equations
and other preferences as required
- For ‘Population’ enter the initial value as 1000

- For births, enter the equation as;
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Population*birth rate
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- For birth rate, put 0.12 (i.e. the fraction)
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Steps – checking equations and units

- Use ‘Model->Check model’ to check the
validity of the model
- If any problem, the Vensim will present you a
dialog box for the variable in which there is
some problem. You need to modify the
equation/unit representation of the variable
- Use ‘Model->Units Check’ to check validity of
each and every units
- If errors are there, then Vensim will present a
document which lists the problematic variables
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and conditions
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Steps – running and analyzing the simulation

- Simulate using ‘Tools -> Simulate’
- It will simulate the dynamic model
- But to have interactive simulation, use
‘Tools ->Synthesim’
- While using ‘Synthesim’ you will be able to

view the graph plotted against the time in real
time
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Steps –analyzing the simulation

- View causes of the variance using ‘Causes
Tree’ tool
- To view how the variable values are being
used, use ‘Uses Tree’ tool
- Use ‘Loops’ tool to view iterations if any
- For summary of simulation, use ‘Document’
tool
- Use ‘causes strip’ to view the values of causes
- Use ‘graph’ to visualize the rate of change
- Use ‘table’ to view tabular data of simulation
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run
- Use ‘runs’ to compare two or more runs
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Tuning and customizing

- Change the ‘initial time’, ‘fin time’, ‘step’ etc.
while building new model
- Change the unit of the time according to your
model
- Use ‘causes tree’, ‘loops’, ‘uses tree’ etc. to
verify the model
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Dynamic model - example
Population
births deaths
birth rate average lifetime
Initial time = 0 Final time = 100

Time step = 0.125 Units for time = Year
Box variable = Population Rate = births

Constant variable= birth rate Rate = deaths
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Constant variable= average lifetime
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Dynamic model - example
Object type Name Intn Equation Initial Unit
value
Box variable Population births- 1000 People

deaths
Rate births Population*birth People/year

rate
Rate deaths Population/aver People/year

age lifetime
Constant birth rate 0.23 Fraction/year

variable
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Constant average 70 year
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variable lifetime
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Exponential Growth
Suppose that you deposit $100 in the bank. If the

interest rate is 10% per year (compounded daily)
and you wait 100 years what will happen?
money
interest rate
interest
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Classroom demonstration
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Exponential Decay
Suppose that you have 100 people working for you

and you decide never to hire anyone again. Your
average worker hangs around for 10 years. What
will happen to your workforce?
workers
av erage tenan cy
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Homework
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Logistic Curves
Suppose that you let some mice loose in your house

and don't try to kill them. What will happen to the
mouse population?
max net new mice rate
Mice
normal carrying capacity
net new mice

effect of density on survival
effect of density on survival function
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Homework
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Oscillation
Consider the problem of a spring pushing a weight

on a frictionless horizontal surface
position spring constant
force
Velocity
mass
acceleration
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Homework
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Home Work
Develop Vensim model for figure

5-9 (a, b)
5-10
5-11
5-12
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Time delays
The Constants can be expressed as time constants

e.g. C1 = 1/T1
which represents that there is time lag of
T1 time unit before the variable
associated with C1 changes
To represent a delay; Let x is the unit of a level. D
is average time units to process a unit of x. Then
dx/dt is defined as;
dx x
=
dt D
x
rate =
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D
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Level
Delay =
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Rate
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Exercises – Chapter 5, Gordon
Q. 5-1
House built House sold

house supply sales
AC sold
ac supply ac breakdown
house rate sale duration
breakdown
Exercise 5.1, page 109 ac supply duration
duration
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Exercise – 5.1
(01) ac breakdown=AC sold/breakdown duration

Units: unit/Month
(02) AC sold=INTEG (+ac supply-ac breakdown, 0)
Units: unit
(03) ac supply = House sold/ac supply duration
Units: unit/Month
(04) ac supply duration = 10
Units: Month
(05) breakdown duration = 25
Units: Month
(06) FINAL TIME = 100
Units: Month
The final time for the simulation
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(07) House built= INTEG (house supply-sales,1000)
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Units: unit
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Exercise – 5.1
(08) house rate=0.125

Units: 1/Month
(09) House sold= INTEG (sales, 0)
Units: unit
(10) house supply=house rate*House built
Units: unit/Month
(11) INITIAL TIME = 0
Units: Month
The initial time for the simulation
(12) sale duration=5
Units: Month
(13) sales=House built/sale duration
Units: unit/Month
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Pramod Parajuli

Simulation and Modeling, CS-331

Control theory – analysis of response of a system for

Decay - same as growth model except the initial

If the max./min. value is limited by some aount

The modified exponential growth model gives large

A logistic function is a combination of exponential

AUX VAR Auxiliary Variable

Causal loop diagrams (CLD’s) are a way of

Block variable (level)– Population (initial value

Steps – drawing the diagrams

Steps – the equations

- For ‘Population’ enter the initial value as 1000

Steps – checking equations and units

Steps – running and analyzing the simulation

- While using ‘Synthesim’ you will be able to

Steps –analyzing the simulation

Tuning and customizing

birth rate average lifetime

Initial time = 0 Final time = 100

Box variable = Population Rate = births

Box variable Population births- 1000 People

Rate births Population*birth People/year

Rate deaths Population/aver People/year

Constant birth rate 0.23 Fraction/year

Suppose that you deposit $100 in the bank. If the

Suppose that you have 100 people working for you

Suppose that you let some mice loose in your house

net new mice

effect of density on survival function

Consider the problem of a spring pushing a weight

position spring constant

Develop Vensim model for figure

The Constants can be expressed as time constants

House built House sold

(01) ac breakdown=AC sold/breakdown duration

(08) house rate=0.125

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