Important questions

time series
1. For predicting the straight-line trend in the sales of scooters (in thousands) on the basis of 6 consecutive years
data, the company makes use of 4-year moving averages method. If the sales of scooters for respective years are 𝑎,
𝑏, 𝑐, 𝑑,𝑒 and 𝑓 respectively, then which of the following average will not be computed?
𝑎+𝑏+𝑐+𝑑 𝑏+𝑐+𝑑+𝑒 𝑎+𝑐+𝑑+𝑒 𝑐+𝑑+𝑒+𝑓
a) 4
b)
4
c)
4
d)
4

2. A factory production is delayed for three weeks due to breakdown of a machine and unavailability of spare parts.
Under which trend oscillation does this situation fall under?
a) Seasonal b) Cyclical c) Secular d) Irregular
3. Time series analysis helps to
a. Understand the behaviour of a variable in the past
b. Predict the future behaviour of a variable
c. Plan future operation
d.All of the above

4. In additive model of time series, original data O =

a. T + S – S + I c. T + C – S – I
b. T – C + S – I d. T + C + S + I
The following table shows the annual rainfall (in mm) recorded for Cherrapunji ,
Meghalaya: Determine the trend of rainfall by 3-year moving average.
Rainfall
Year (in mm)
2001 1.2
2002 1.9
2003 2
2004 1.4
2005 2.1
2006 1.3
2007 1.8
2008 1.1
2009 1.3
Determine the trend values by 5-year moving average.

Year No. of student 5 year moving total Average

1993 442 - -
1994 427 - -
1995 467
1996 502
1997 512
1998 515
1999 520
2000 527
2001 515 - -
2002 541 - -
Determine the trend values by 4-year moving average.
Year Value 4 year moving 4 year moving average 4 year centre moving average
total
1984 12
1985 25

1986 39

1987 54

1988 70

1989 87

1990 105

1991 100

1992 82
1993 65
Mrs. Shamita runs a bread factory and the record of her sales of bakery items for the period of 2015 - 2019 is as follows:
Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Sales(in ₹ thousands) 35 42 46 41 48
Based on the above information, answer the following questions. Show steps to support your answers.
a) Demonstrate the technique to fit the best-suited straight-line trend by the method of least square.
b) What are the estimated sales for Mrs. Shamita’s business for year 2022? 1
c) Mrs Shamita wishes to grow her business to yearly sale of ₹ 67400. In which year will she be able to reach her target?
 Fit a straight line trend by the method a least squares and find the trend value for the year 2008
for the following data :

YEAR Production(in lakh tonnes)

2001 30
2002 35
2003 36
2004 32
2005 37
2006 40
2007 36
2008 34