Pretty Little AWA Guide

Pretty little AWA Guide 
ChaseDream - yuenhsu Page 1 Pretty Little AWA Guide

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Pretty little AWA Guide 1
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Official. Question 5
Essay Structure - YuenHsu 6
Essay Structure from chineseburned 7
Template from Rahul 9
Template from seven sins 10
Body - investigate 10
body - causation 10
Body - baseless assumption 11
Body - false analogy 11
Body - others 12
Differences - make a lot of money doesn’t equal save a lot of money 12
Definition - useful for discussing drugs or something 12
Ignore the timing - 12
Profit = revenue - cost 12
Conclusion 12
Type of Flaws 13
Either or 13
• Rahul 13
• Seven Sins 13
All things are equal 13
Hasty generalization / insufficient sample 14
• Rahul 14
• Seven Sins 14
Survey is doubtful 14
Gratuitous assumption 14
Weak analogy 15
False cause fallacy 15
• Rahul 15
• Seven Sins - Causality 15
Vocabulary Bank 16
Verb for author. (author ____ that) 17
• saying 17
Adjective for plan 18
Sample - Zapped 19
Sample Cola & Coffee 21
Practice 23
Tarquinia 23
Olympic Food 25
Apogee 27
City council v.s. art 29
The Mercury 31
Heavy Machinery 33
City of Helios 35
Artificial Sweetener 37
Management issues 38
Blame the immigrant (MGMAT) 40
Middle aged consumers 42
Waymarsh college 44
MONtoya 47
Daily Gazette 49
Cumquat Cafe & radio 51
Nova high school 52
Motorcycle X 54
Peptcaid 56
Not-for-profit organization 58
Mammon Savings and loan 60
City L 62
Violent movie v.s. crime rate 64
Cambria Ambulance 66
Fern Valley University 68
Avia airlines 70
Leisure shopping of americans 72
Hospital 74
Robin Good 76
Manhattan exam 2 78
MGMAT 4 - relocation & warehouses 80
Elm City 82
Saluda v.s. gym 87
President Leonard 89
PPC marketing 91
Macdowell’s ppc 93

Oﬀicial. Question
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze
the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need
to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative
explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what
sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument
would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate
its conclusion.  

Essay Structure - YuenHsu
First paragraph:
Source of the argument + Broad conclusion + Author’s Reasoning + The Flaw + Conclusion
The argument published/appeared in SOURCE suggests that THE PLANS & THE
CONCLUSION. In order to support this conclusion, the author The REASONING. While
the argument has some merits, it suffers a number of flaws, ranging from inconclusive
evidence to flimsy reasoning, that would need to be reconstructed before a more
reliable and solid conclusion/plan could be carried out.
* The flaw does NOT matter, just use inconclusive evidence to flimsy reasoning. It works
for ALL argument.
Second Paragraph:
Pick the most obvious mistake and describe it. List counter examples, alternative
outcomes. How can the author improve the plan?
Most conspicuously, the entire argument is based on a groundless assumption that AAA
will lead to BBB; however, no evidence is provided to support this assumption. While it
may be true that AAA does lead to BBB, it is also possible that AAA lead to CCC then to
BBB. In other words, correlation is different from causation. Just because these two
events are related in time does not mean that they are in a cause and effect relationship.
If the author could provide further information to demonstrate that AAA is the sole
reason for BBB, then the argument would be more convincing.
Third and Forth Paragraph: Pick the flaws and describe them.
Fifth Paragraph: Conclusion + Relist all the ways that author could strengthen the
argument + the Final Word.
In conclusion, the argument is flawed for the reasons stated above and is therefore
unconvincing. In order to strengthen the conclusion, the author needs to XXXX. Until
then, the argument is unsubstantiated and open to debate. 

Essay Structure from chineseburned1
The argument claims that ….(restate) or The author proposed plan X to accomplish…
Stated in this way the argument:
- Manipulates facts and conveys a distorted view of the situation
- Reveals examples of leap of faith, poor reasoning and ill-defined terminology
- Fails to mention several key factors, on the basis of which it could be evaluated.
Then explain what’s wrong
- The conclusion of the argument relies on assumptions for which there is no clear
evidence.
- The argument has some merits but it omits some important concerns that must be
addressed to substantiate the argument.
- The plan is fundamentally flawed, in that the evidence provided fails to support the
author’s claim.
- The author makes several assumptions that are unlikely to be true, in which case her
argument is seriously compromised.
Hence, the argument is weak/unconvincing and has several flaws.
First, the argument readily assumes that......

This statement is a stretch....
For example,… Clearly,...
The argument could have been much clearer if it explicitly stated that...
Second, the argument claims that....

This is again a very weak and unsupported claim as the argument does not demonstrate
any correlation between....and...
If the argument had provided evidence that.....then the argument would have been a lot
more convincing.
Finally,… (pose some questions for the argument).....Without convincing answers to

these questions, one is left with the impression that the claim is more of a wishful
thinking rather than substantive evidence.
1 http://gmatclub.com/forum/how-to-get-6-0-awa-my-guide-64327.html
In conclusion, the argument is flawed for the above-mentioned reasons and is therefore
unconvincing. It could be considerably strengthened if the author clearly mentioned all
the relevant facts....
In order to assess the merits of a certain situation/decision, it is essential to have full

knowledge of all contributing factors. In this particular case....
Without this information, the argument remains unsubstantiated and open to debate. 

Template from Rahul2
To support this conclusion, the author merely (references a survey/report OR draws a
comparison) but does not give any specific information (about what was asked in the
survey, how the survey was conducted, or how many cities were in the survey.) While the
author's argument has some merit, it contains several questionable assumptions and
leaves out some important concerns that need to be addressed to substantiate the
argument.
Most conspicuously, the basis of the argument is _______. Consider, for instance,
___________. Clearly, this argument based on such a reasoning/survey/research/
incident would be quite weak. On the contrary, if _____, then the argument would be
much stronger. Thus, the author should make this claim more acceptable by supplying the
most appropriate supporting material.
Additionally or finally, the author claims that__________. This claim is again very weak
and unsupported as the argument demonstrates no correlation between ____ and
_____. The author fails to provide any basis for drawing the comparison between the two.
Moreover, by not limiting the scope of the comparison to few relevant points, the author
has left the door too far wide open for any objective person to draw his or her conclusion
regarding this claim.
Additionally or finally, the author assumes/claims that_____. But the author has not
provided us any evidence that would be required to support this claim and has many
questions unanswered. What if?????? Also, what if??????? Without, decisive answers to
these pertinent questions, one is left with the impression that this claim is more wishful
thinking than substantive evidence.
In conclusion, the argument is neither compelling nor persuasive. Because the author's
argument omits several key issues, it is thus poorly supported. If the author had backed
up his or her points with conclusive evidence and included the items discussed above,
then the argument would have been more thorough and convincing.  
2 https://gmatclub.com/forum/useful-gmat-awa-template-my-awa-scores-gmat-1-6-gmat-223478.html
Template from seven sins
In this argument, the arguer concludes/ suggests/ makes a suggestion/ makes a
conclusion that…To justify this conclusion/ suggestion/ argument, the arguer points out/
cites that…The arguer also points out/ cites that…Although the argument/ conclusion/
suggestion seems plausible, after closely scrutinizing this argument, I find that this
argument is logically flawed in several aspects, which render it unconvincing as it stands.
Body - Investigate
A threshold problem with this argument involves a survey/ study/ research itself. The
statistical reliability of the survey/study/research/ is really dubious可疑 for the reason
that the speaker provide no evidence which can show that the number of the respondents
( 这⾥里里建议替换成调查研究中的群体。比如针对谁提问就写谁) is statistically significant or
that the respondents were representative of the overall group of people (接所有群体，比
如北京市所有的⼀一类群体) in general. Common sense tells us that the smaller the size of
the sample, the greater the possibility for biased results, the less reliable the result of the
survey and the less reliable any general conclusions drawn from the survey. That is to say,
(你要开始攻击了了) The number of participants, 100 (⽂文中数据), might be just an
insufficiently small sample on which cannot be justifiably relied to draw any reliable
conclusions about... Also, the sample might be not necessarily representative of (所有群
体). Lacking the information about the randomness and the size of the survey sample, the
speaker cannot convince me to believe in the result of the survey—let alone draw any
broader recommendation based on the survey/study/research/ result. 
⽤用于结尾总结的句句型: To better support this argument, the arguer should provide more
information to show that the respondents of the survey are statistically significant in
number and can represent the overall …
 
Body - Causation
The arguer unfairly assumes that the fact that A is due to B. However, there is no sufficient
evidence which can substantiate/confirm this assumption. The speaker overlooks other
factors that might also lead to the fact that (接原题的结论。比如，盈利利，⽔水平上升，总之
就是作者希望的那样). As a matter of fact, the fact that A might be explained by a variety of
factors. So lacking evidence to confirm this assumption, it is entirely possible that…It is
equalily possible that…Moreover, perhaps that…(⼀一般情况下我推荐3种其他的可能性) In
short, without considering and ruling out all of these and other possibilities, the
credibility of the arguer’s conclusion is really open to doubt for the reason that each of the
possibilities, if true, would serve to undermine the arguer’s conclusion./ the arguer
cannot justifiably concludes that…/ I remain unconvinced that… 
The author must consider and eliminate other possible reasons that may also lead to this
result. 
Body - Baseless Assumption

Moreover, the argument rests on a unconvincing assumption that A leads to B for the
reason that there is no evidence given to substantiate the claim that A contributes to B.
Even if it is true that…the mere fact that A does not necessarily indicate that B. It is
entirely possible that (注意，本次可能性列列举是就原题条件列列举，上段的列列举是就结论列列
举，完全不同，⼀一个是反证，⼀一个是归谬。请⼤大家注意)..Or perhaps….（这段列列举我不建议
超过2个，因为太多的列列举会显得逻辑性不强。2个就够了了） 
Thus, given these possible scenarios, the fact(原题的条件) prove nothing about (原题结论)
Body - False Analogy

The argument is unconvincing also because it is based on a false analogy. Failing to take
into account the possible differences between A and B, the arguer makes a hasty analogy.
It is entirely possible that A and B are not similar enough to justify this analogical
deduction.(上⾯面的句句⼦子是所有错误类比的题⽬目通杀的句句⼦子, 只要有错误类比, 那么先把这⼏几句句
打上) Perhaps…(两者之间可能差异⼀一)Or perhaps…(两者之间可能差异⼆二). Therefore,
without providing sufficient information showing that most or even all of the conditions
in A and B is similar or the same, the author cannot convince me that the method which is
efficient in A can also be efficient in B as well. (结尾句句同样是所有错误类比的题⽬目通杀的,
只要有错误类比, 这句句就写上) 
The mere fact that A is scant evidence that B would achieve its goals by following A’s
example. Perhaps the same course of action would be ineffective on B due to geological
differences between the two islands. Or perhaps ... In short, lacking evidence that
conditions on the two islands are relevantly similar, the author cannot convince me on
the basis ofA’s experience that the proposed course of action would be effective in
attaining Tria’s goals.

Body - Others
Differences - Make A Lot Of Money Doesn’t Equal Save A Lot Of Money
The arguer unfairly equates A with B. However, there is no evidence in the argument
which can show that A is equal to B.
Definition - Useful For Discussing Drugs Or Something

A threshold problem involves the definition of A. The arguer does not provide an accurate
and exact definition of A.
Ignore The Timing -

The author’s inference that … rests on the poor assumption that during the … (the
interim) all conditions upon which their effectiveness depend have remained unchanged./
It is assumed without justification that background conditions have remained the same at
different times (conditions)
Profit = Revenue - Cost

The author’s recommendation is based on the assumption that no alternative means of
doing sth are available or better than the method mentioned above. However, there may
be lots of other ways that may be even better than this method. Without weighing the
proposal against alternatives, the article’s claim that … is the “best ” means of achieving …
is wholly unconvincing.
Conclusion
In conclusion, despite that fact that this argument seems appealing, it has several logical
flaws, and is therefore unpersuasive as it stands. To bolster his or her argument, the
arguer must provide more information which can show that…To better support this
argument, the arguer should also provide…To better evaluate this argument, I would also
need to know that…

Type of Flaws
Either Or
• Rahul
The author has clearly set up the situation in such a way that it looks like there are only
two choices. The author has then eliminated one of the choices, so it seems that we are
left with only one option: the one the author wanted us to pick in the first place.
But often there are really many different options, not just two and one of them here would
be to ….. The argument neglects to mention the possibility that we …. Since there are
clearly other alternatives, the author should just not simply ignore them, but explain why
they too should be ruled out.
• Seven Sins
The author assumes that AA and BB are mutually exclusive alternatives and there is no
room for a middle ground. However, the author provides no reason for imposing an
either-or choice. Common sense tells us that adjusting both AA and BB might produce
better results.
All Things Are Equal

The author commits the fallacy of “all things are equal”. The fact that happened two years
ago is not a sound evidence to draw a conclusion that.... The author assumes without
justification that the background conditions have remained the same at different times or
at different locations. However, it is not clear in this argument whether the current
conditions at AA are the same as they used to be two years ago. Thus it is impossible to
conclude that....

Hasty Generalization / Insufficient Sample
• Rahul
This is clearly a case of making hasty generalization; the author has made assumptions
about a whole group or range of cases based on a sample that is inadequate because it is
too small.
The author should consider giving more evidence, or perhaps making a less sweeping
conclusion.
• Seven Sins
The evidence the author provides is insufficient to support the conclusion drawn from it.
One example is logically unsounded to establish a general conclusion (The statistics from
only a few recent years are not necessarily a good indicator of future trends), unless it can
be shown that A1 is representative of all A. It is possible that.... In fact, in face of such
limited evidence, the conclusion that B is completely unwarranted.
Survey Is Doubtful
The poll cited by the author is too vague to be informative. The claim does not indicate
who conducted the poll, who responded, or when, where and how the poll was conducted.
(Lacking information about the number of people surveyed and the number of
respondents, it is impossible to access the validity of the results. For example, if 200
persons were surveyed but only 2 responded, the conclusion that...would be highly
suspect. Because the argument offers no evidence that would rule out this kind of
interpretations,) Until these questions are answered, the results of the survey are
worthless as evidence for the conclusion.
Gratuitous Assumption
The author falsely depends on gratuitous assumption that.... However, no evidence is
stated in the argument to support this assumption. In fact, this is not necessarily the case.
For example, it is more likely that.... Therefore, this argument is unwarranted without
ruling out such possibility. 

Weak Analogy
Most conspicuously, this argument relies on an analogy between A and B. But these two
things that are being compared aren’t really alike in the relevant respects.
While, _________
Therefore, this analogy is a weak one, and the argument by relying on it commits the
fallacy of weak analogy. In order to make a more compelling case, the author would need
to limit the scope of his comparison to include only relevant and comparable features/
aspects......
False Cause Fallacy

• Rahul
Most conspicuously, the author assumes that because 1. B came after A, A caused B. OR 2.
A has happened, B will happen.
But sometimes two events that seem related (in time) aren’t really related as cause and
effect. That is, correlation isn’t the same thing as causation.
A might or might not be one factor in B, but the argument hasn’t shown us that one
caused the other. If the author wants us to assume that A causes B, then he or she should
have something more to say about how A caused B than just that A came first and B came
later. Thus, to avoid this false cause fallacy, the author would need to give us some
explanation of the process by which A is supposed to have caused B.
• Seven Sins - Causality

The author commits a fallacy of causal oversimplification. The line of the reasoning is that
because A occurred before B, the former event is responsible for the latter. (The author
uses the positive correlation between A and B to establish causality. However, the fact that
A coincides with B does not necessarily prove that A caused B.) But this is fallacious
reasoning unless other possible causal explanations have been considered and ruled out.
For example, perhaps C is the cause of these events or perhaps B is caused by D.

Vocabulary Bank
Relationship Words
Supporting Examples for example, to illustrate, for instance, because, specifically
Additional Support Furthermore, in Addition, Similarly, Just As, Also, as a Result,

Moreover, Likewise, Too
Importance Surely, Truly, Undoubtedly, Clearly, in Fact, Most Importantly
Contrast On the Contrary, Yet, Despite, Rather, Instead, However,
Although, While, Alternatively, on the One Hand/on the Other
Hand, Even So, Still, That Said, Nevertheless, Nonetheless,
Otherwise
Similarities Likewise, in the Same Way
Decide Against One Cannot Deny That, It Could Be Argued That, Granted,
Admittedly, It Is True That, Certainly, Admittedly, Despite,
Although
Generalize In General, Broadly Speaking
Concluding Therefore, in Summary, Consequently, Hence, in Conclusion,
Ultimately, in Closing, in Brief, Overall
Result Therefore, Thus, as a Result, So, Accordingly, Hence
Restate For Clarity In other words, That is, Namely, So to speak

Plan Word
Assess The Plan Assess, Judge, Evaluate, Critique, Examine, Weigh
Aspect Of A Plan Design, Structure, Implementation, Application, Exertion ⾏行行使、運⽤用,
Exercise, Operation, Utilization

Inspect A Plan Applicability , Soundness, Validity, Effectiveness, Legitimate 合法性正
當性, Grounds, Reasoning, Utility
Strengthen Support, Substantiate, Reinforce, Improve, Justify, Address Concerns,
Eliminate Defects
Weaken Undermine, Damage, Harm, Destroy, Demolish
Verb for Author. (Author ____ That)

• Saying
- State, Claim, Assume, Hypothesize, Justify, Acknowledge, Argue, Defend, Explain,  
Refute 駁斥、反駁, Suppose, Infer, Presume, Accounted for (Responsible for), Imply 暗
⽰示, Show, Attest 表明、證明, Establish, Manifest 表現 (to show something),
- Reason, Draw, Demonstrate, Reckon, Propose, Suggest 

Adjective For Plan
Good Plan / Improved Plan Bad Plan / Flawed Plan
Accurate, Accurately Inaccurate, Inaccurately
- Ambiguous
Inarguable Arguable
Certain, Certainly Uncertain, uncertainty
Clear, Clearly Unclear
Convincing Unconvincing
Compelling -
Undebatable Debatable
Definite, Definitely Indefinite
Effective Ineffective
Evident -
Firm, Firmly -
Indisputable Disputable
Irrefutable Refutable
Justifiable -
Legit, Legitimate Illegitimate
Logical Illogical
Plausible  Implausible
- Problematic
Proper, Properly Improper
Reasonable Unreasonable
Reliable Unreliable
Solid -
Sound Unsound
Strong Weak
Sure Unsure
Through -
Trustworthy Untrustworthy
Undoubted, Undoubtable Doubted, Doubtable
Unquestionable, Unquestionably Questionable
- Vague
Valid Invalid
Warranted - Reasonable Unwarranted
Real Good Real Baaaaaad

Airtight misleading, deceptive, unfounded, baseless

Sample3 - Zapped
The following appeared as part of a business plan recommended by the new manager of a
musical rock group called Zapped:
“To succeed financially, Zapped needs greater name recognition. It should therefore
diversify its commercial enterprises. The rock group Zonked plays the same type of music
that Zapped plays, but it is much better known than Zapped because, in addition to its
concert tours and four albums, Zonked has a series of posters, a line of clothing and
accessories, and a contract with a major advertising agency to endorse a number of
different products.”
The band manager of the band Zapped has concluded that the band can increase its
financial status by getting more name recognition. In order to support his or her
conclusion, the author has drawn correlation with another band Zonked but failed to
give information as to why such a comparison is justified. While the author's argument
has some merit, it contains a number of questionable assumptions that need to be
addressed in order to substantiate the argument.
Source + Conclusion or Goal + How did author support the conclusion + What
did the author do wrong + (give the author some sugar) then point out the
fact that this argument is Flawed and need to be reconstruct
Most conspicuously, the author wants us to believe that greater name recognition would
lead to more financial success. The author has painted the two events as cause and
effect. But, just because two events seem to be related to each other in time does not
mean they are related in a cause and effect relationship. That is, correlation is not the
same as causation. If the author wants us to believe that greater the band's name
recognition more will its financial successful, he or she should have more to say than just
stating because name recognition comes first, financial success will come later. The
author should be able to demonstrate the process by which he or she has reached this
conclusion, and provide us the related evidence with corresponding facts and figure.
3 https://gmatclub.com/forum/useful-gmat-awa-template-my-awa-scores-gmat-1-6-gmat-223478.html
Quote the passage + pick a flaw and describe it + why is it wrong + example
How can it be improved?
Additionally, the author has compared the band to another band, Zonked. Except for
telling us that they are also into the same music genre, the author never addresses the
similarity between the two bands. Consider, for instance, Zonked is a band which came
into existence after a TV-reality show and it has always been popular because of this
reason. Though they have had to work hard to maintain their popularity, because they
were supported by a big music label from the beginning they never had to worry about
public relationship maintenance. Whereas, Zapped is a band which was put together by
5 school friends and have started by playing at school level concerts. Then, in this case
the bands have almost nothing in common and the author's comparison is not at all
warranted and this will be a very weak argument. On the other hand, if both bands are
very similar in the number of band members, how they were put together to even the
age-groups each band member belongs to, then a comparison between the two bands
can certainly be drawn and the author's argument would be strengthened.
Finally, the author claims that it will be easy for Zapped to get a line of clothing, have a
series of posters and a contract. The author never addresses how he plans to go about
achieving this goal and leaves a number of questions unanswered. For instance, has the
band already tried to get such a contract and failed? What is the current financial status
of the band? How popular is the band? Is it very popular at a country level or is it only
currently known in its state? How many hit singles has the band given? Without decisive
answers to these pertinent questions, one is left with the impression that the claim is
more wishful thinking than substantive evidence.
In conclusion, the argument is neither compelling nor persuasive. Because the argument
omits several key issues, it is poorly supported. If the author had supported his or her
points with conclusive evidence and included the items discussed above, the argument
would have been more thorough and convincing.
566 words 😲  

Sample Cola & Coﬀee
The following appeared as part of the business plan of an investment and financial
consulting firm:
“Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with
age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The
average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both
of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number of older
adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows
that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this
period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to
Early Bird Coffee.”
The author of the argument has concluded that since trends show that coffee is being
consumed at a higher rate than cola, the investors should move their investments from
Cola Loca to Early Bird Company. To provide support to his conclusion the author refers
to a survey about which we are given very little information with respect to whom the
source and the participants were. While the author's argument has some merit, it
contains a number of questionable assumptions and leaves out a number of important
issues that need to be addressed in order to substantiate the argument.
Most conspicuously, the author refers to "studies" in order to prove his claims about the
trends in consumption of coffee and cola products respectively. But the author does not
address the issues such as who the sources of these studies are nor who were the
people who were surveyed. The author also does not give any information about the
total number of respondents in these studies or what alll questions were asked in them.
Consider, for instance, if the survey was done by a PR firm hired by a coffee making
company, then the argument would be weakened. Thus, the author should clearly
provide us with appropriate materials describing the nature, source and content of these
surveys. Without doing so, the author leaves the door too far wide open for any
objective individual to make his or her own conclusion about the author's claim. Since
these studies form the basis of author's whole argument, he or she needs to clear all
doubts regarding its authenticity by providing complete details about them.
Additionally, the author seems to make a correlation between the indications of the
survey and investing in Cola Loca or Early Bird Coffee Company. But this is a clear case
of making false cause fallacy, without providing any substantial evidence to prove the
claim. The author has left too many questions unanswered. For example, is the financial
status of these two companies comparable? What is the respective size of these two
companies? Is the author adovacating for making a medium term or a long term
investment? What will happen to the share prices in the short term? Without, decisive
answers to these questions, one is left with the impression that the claim is more wishful
thinking than substantive evidence.
In conclusion, the author's argument is neither compelling nor persuasive. Because the
argument omits several key concerns, it is poorly supported. If the author had backed up
his or her points with conclusive evidence and included the items discussed above, the
argument would have been more thorough and thus convincing.
438 words 

Practice
Tarquinia
The country of Tarquinia has a much higher rate of traffic accidents per person than its
neighbors, and in the vast majority of cases one or more drivers is found to be at fault in
the courts. Therefore, Tarquinia should abolish driver-side seatbelts, airbags, and other
safety measures that protect the driver, while new cars should be installed with a spike on
the steering column pointed at the driver's heart. These measures will eliminate traffic
accidents in Tarquinia by motivating drivers to drive safely.
The author proposed a plan to abolish safely measures that protect the drivers and to
install death spikes to motivate drivers to be more cautious, with the ultimate goal to
reduce traffic accidents. This argument suffers from a number of flaws, ranging from
fragile use of evidence to ill-conceived elements of the proposal, that would mandate a
full reconstruct before the proposal could be carried out.
First of all, the author cites two pieces of supporting evidence, which, even if true,
should be challenged on the basis of their applicability. Tarquinia may have a higher rate
of accidents than its neighbors, but the circumstances for Tarquinia and the neighbors
might differ vastly. The rates of car ownership, the road condition, and populations
would need to be specify before a reliable conclusion can be drawn.
Secondly, it may be true that the courts find drivers guilty in most cases, but the standard
for the court is unknown. Perhaps the Tarquinian court is untrustworthy and their
decisions are unwarranted. Or maybe the law demands that at least a driver be found at
guilty, even if the road or weather conditions are to blame, in order to collect insurance
payment. Had the argument provided evidence for the reason the drivers are fault or
more detailed information regarding the road situation, then the argument would have
been more convincing.
Thirdly, the design and implementation of the plan are highly questionable. The
abolishment of the safety measures would likely cause the Tarquinian people to reject
the plan since it’s too extreme. Moreover, the fact that the proposal only applies to new
cars create a huge logical gap. It could be possible that no one will purchase a new car
in the country, instead, people seek used car or import non-death-spike cars from the
near country. Even if there are new cars driving on the road, it would be unfair for the
new car drivers to subject to death penalty because of poor driving.
In order to assess the merits of the plan, it is essential to have full knowledge of all
contributing factors. In this particular case, the author would need to establish, first, that
the careless drivers are the ultimate reason for accidents. In addition, the author would
need to demonstrate that the residents will accept the proposed plan and
implementation. Without this information, the argument remains unsubstantiated and
open to debate.
398 words 9/18 

Olympic Food
The following appeared as part of an annual report sent to stockholders by Olympic
Foods, a processor of frozen foods:
Over time, the costs of processing go down because as organizations learn how to do
things better, they become more efficient. In color film processing, for example, the cost
of a 3-by-5-inch print fell from 50 cents for five-day service in 1970 to 20 cents for one-
day service in 1984. The same principle applies to the processing of food. And since
Olympic Foods will soon celebrate its 25th birthday, we can expect that our long
experience will enable us to minimize costs and thus maximize profits
The argument claims that the Olympic Food will be able to reduce cost and maximize
profits using the historic fact drawn from the color film processing industry and the
principle that the cost will go down as organizations become more efficient as the time
pasts. The conclusion of the argument reveals examples of leap of faith and relies on
assumptions for which there is no clear evidence. Hence, the argument is weak.
First of all, the author cites the example for color film industry to draw conclusion to a
completely different business. The author provides no linkage between the two,
therefore, it’s difficult to determine whether the conclusion is sound. Additionally, food
processing has more differences with the film processing than similarities. For example,
problems of spoilage, contamination and the timeliness of transportation all effect food
processing industry severely but are virtually absent in the film processing industry. It is
highly doubtful the fact drawn from film processing industry is applicable on food
processing industry. The argument could have been clearer if it explicitly states the
things in common between these two industries.
Secondly, the author claims that the costs will go down as the organizations learn how to
things better and become more efficient. The author readily assumes that the increase in
efficiency affects the cost without considering other possible factors, such as the inflation
of the current economy, the price of the material needed and the cost of the machine
and labor. More details regarding the costs would need to be specify before a reliable
conclusion can be drawn.

Thirdly, the author doesn’t included any information other than the length of Olympic
Food’s operation. While there is a rough correlation between long experience and the
ability to minimize costs, it’s not always the case. What if Olympic Food learned nothing
from the previous 24 years? Moreover, even if it successfully reduces the processing
cost, it doesn’t mean that the profit will be maximized. Had the argument provided proof
that Olympic food had made improvements from the past experience, the argument
would be more convincing.
the relevant facts. Until then, the argument remains unsubstantiated and open to debate
384 words. 9/18 

Apogee
The following appeared in a memorandum from the business department of the Apogee
Company:
“When the Apogee Company had all its operations in one location, it was more profitable
than it is today. Therefore, the Apogee Company should close down its field offices and
conduct all its operations from a single location. Such centralization would improve
profitability by cutting costs and helping the company maintain better supervision of all
employees.”
The argument claimed by the business department of the Apogee Company that the
company can improve profitability by close down field offices and conduct operations
from a single location. The argument suffers from a number of flaws, ranging from flimsy
use of evidence to the lack of support, that would mandate a reconstruction before the
proposal could be carried out.
First of all, the author cites a historical fact that the company was more profitable before
without addressing other factors relevant to a company’s profitability. Such as the shift in
economy, the rents of the office, and the costs of labor. Likewise, it might be true that the
profit is lower today, but the degree to which these are driven by the de-centralization is
unknown. Perhaps the company just invested a substantial amount of money into the
new technology that will eventually raise the profit. The argument could have been
clearer if it explicitly stated more details regarding the profit.
Secondly, the author argues that Apogee should close down all the field offices,
regarding a complicated managerial process as a single-step solution. Additionally, the
design of the plan fails to consider the extra cost and the inefficiency that might result
from the centralization. For example, company representatives might have to travel back
and forth to conduct business, and customers might take the businesses to a different
company that has a closer location, creating extra travel expenditure and wasting critical
time. Had the argument provided a cost-benefit analysis, proving the applicability of the
plan, it would be more convincing.
Finally, the author does not include any information about the customers, the most
important source of income, focusing only on the cost and profit without the revenue. It’s
unknown that whether Apogee would lose the market share or whether the customers
would take their businesses to somewhere else. Similarly, it would become more difficult
for the company to get first-hand information and make quick decisions to fight
competitors without an established office. Without answers to these concerns, the
argument is more of a wishful thinking rather than substantive evidence.
the relevant facts. Until then, the argument remains unsubstantiated and open to debate.
385 words 9/18 

City Council V.S. Art
The following appeared in a memorandum issued by a large city’s council on the arts:
“In a recent citywide poll, 15 percent more residents said that they watch television
programs about the visual arts than was the case in a poll conducted five years ago.
During these past five years, the number of people visiting our city’s art museums has
increased by a similar percentage. Since the corporate funding that supports public
television,
where most of the visual arts programs appear, is now being threatened with severe cuts,
we can expect that attendance at our city’s art museums will also start to decrease. Thus
some of the city’s funds for supporting the arts should be reallocated to public television.”
In a memorandum published by city council, the author argued that the city should
reallocate more funding to support art show on public television in order for the
attendance at the art museum not to further decrease. Although the argument has some
merits, a number of defects undermine the claim, ranging from inconclusive information
to flimsy reasoning, that would mandate a reconstruction before the proposal could be
carried out.
First of all, the author cited a historical data and compare it with a recent data without
information regarding the sample number and the questions, therefore, it is difficult to
determine whether the poll is biased. These questions called the applicability of the
mentioned data into question, and the argument would be more convincing if the
additional details about the survey had been mentioned.
Secondly, the author committed a “Cause and Effect” fallacy. The argument readily
assumed that the increased exposure of the visual arts television program has caused
the increase the attendance at the museum. While there might be a rough correlation
between the two, the author failed to consider other possible factors. For example,
maybe the museum started to feature a well-known artist this year, or the museum now
allowed children to visit for free. The increase in both TV programs and the attendance at
the museum could be completely irrelevant.
However, one must recognize that the author’s assumption is a special case of a
generalization that television viewing affects people’s behavior. After all, the advertisers
around the world spend billions of dollars based on this assumption. Ultimately, more
information regarding the linkage between the two would need to be provided before a
reliable conclusion can be drawn.
In conclusion, the argument is flawed for the reasons mentioned above and is
unconvincing. It could be strengthened if the author provided more details regarding
the data on the poll. Additionally, the author would need to demonstrate that the
increase in attendance at the museum is related to the increase viewership of visual art
television program. Without these, the argument remained unsubstantiated and opened
to debate.
345 words 9/19 

The Mercury
The following appeared in an announcement issued by the publisher of The Mercury, a
weekly newspaper:
“Since a competing lower-priced newspaper, The Bugle, was started five years ago, The
Mercury’s circulation has declined by 10,000 readers. The best way to get more people to
read The Mercury is to reduce its price below that of The Bugle, at least until circulation
increases to former levels. The increased circulation of The Mercury will attract more
businesses to buy advertising space in the paper.”
The announcement issued by the publish of The Mercury argued that The Mercury
should sell at a price cheaper than The Bugle, which is The Mercury’s competitor that
started five years ago, in order to increase the readership and ultimately to attract more
advertisers. The argument suffers from a number of flaws, ranging from the inconclusive
information to the weak reasoning, that would mandate a reconstruction before the
First of all, the author readily assumed the decline of The Mercury’s circulation is related
to The Bugle. While it might not be complete irrelevant, more information regarding
both papers would need to be provided before a conclusion can be drawn. Moreover,
the author assumed the decline is because of the Bugle’s cheaper price without
regarding other factors that might account for the decline. For example, readers might
be unpleased with the quality of the articles, or readers might opt for news website
rather than weekly newspaper. If the publisher had included information that the readers
left because of the Bugle’s cheaper price, the argument would have be more convincing.
Secondly, the author proposed a plan to reduce The Mercury’s price below that of The
Bugle to increase circulation, regarding a complicated managerial process as a single-
step solution. The design and the implementation of the plan is also high questionable.
It’s difficult to determine whether customers would now choose The Mercury or
associate the cheap price with compromised quality and opt other newspapers.
Additionally, the applicability of the plan is also doubtful. Perhaps the newsstand would
stop ordering The Mercury since the profit is too low, or The Mercury would the face
severe financial issues after the adjustment because the price is lower than the break-
even point. The author could provide a cost-benefit analysis, proving the applicability of
the plan, to support the argument.
Finally, the author wanted to achieve the ultimate goal of attracting advertisers by
increase the circulation. However, the author failed to take into consideration other
factors, such as the age group of the audience, that affect advertisers’ willingness.
unconvincing. In order to improve the proposal, the author would need to establish the
correlation between the Mercury and The Bugle and demonstrate that the reduce of the
price would not cause a negative impact. Until then, the argument is defected and
opened to debate.
404 words 9/19/18

A bit too much. Try to cut it down! 

Heavy Machinery
The following appeared in a report presented for discussion at a meeting of the directors
of a company that manufactures parts for heavy machinery:
“The falling revenues that the company is experiencing coincide with delays in
manufacturing. These delays, in turn, are due in large part to poor planning in purchasing
metals. Consider further that the manager of the department that handles purchasing of
raw materials has an excellent background in general business, psychology, and sociology,
but knows little about the properties of metals. The company should, therefore, move the
purchasing manager to the sales department and bring in a scientist from the research
division to be manager of the purchasing department.”
The suggestion of replace the current purchasing manager, who has a background in
general business, psychology and sociology, with a scientist from the research
department in order to improve the delay in manufacturing that caused the revenue to
fall was presented at a meeting. The argument suffers from a number of defects, ranging
from inconclusive evidence and flimsy reasoning, that would require a reconstruction
before the proposal could be carried out.
First, the author cites the fact that the delay accounted for the falling revenue. While it
may be true that there is a rough correlation between the two events, it is premature to
draw a conclusion without consideration of other possible factors, such as the rising cost
of the material or the declining economy. Additionally, the claim regarding the poor
planning as the major reason is also doubtable. Perhaps the for the delay was because
of the insufficient space in the warehouse. The author would need to provide more solid
evidence in order to draw a reliable conclusion.
Secondly, the author readily assumes that the manager of the purchasing department
lacks knowledge about the metal properties. The validity of the assumption is disputable
since the manager probably has decades of experience in metal industry, making up for
the lack of the background.
Thirdly, the reasoning of the plan to bring in a scientist is also questionable. Successfully
running a department would require not just professional expertise, but also leadership,
ability to motivate the staff, and skills to effectively communicate with the supplier.
Furthermore, the proposal to transfer the purchasing manager to sales department is
debatable because the abilities needed might vary considerably between two
departments. All these questions call the utility of the proposal into question.
In conclusion, the argument is flawed and is therefore unconvincing. In order to improve

the proposal, the author would need to establish that the purchasing department is the
one to blame for the delay and falling revenue. Moreover, the author would need to
demonstrate that the individual would be qualified for the new position. Until then, the
argument is unsubstantiated and open to debate.
351 words. 9/19/18

City Of Helios
The following appeared as part of an article in a magazine devoted to regional life:
“Corporations should look to the city of Helios when seeking new business opportunities
or a new location. Even in the recent recession, Helios’s unemployment rate was lower
than the regional average. It is the industrial center of the region, and historically it has
provided more than its share of the region’s manufacturing jobs. In addition, Helios is
attempting to expand its economic base by attracting companies that focus on research
and development of innovative technologies.”
The article published in a magazine, which is devoted to regional life, claimed that
corporations should consider Helios when exploring opportunities or new locations. The
argument has several flaws, ranging from the flimsy reasoning and the inconclusive
evidence, that would require a reconstruction before the proposal could be carried out.
First of all, the author cited that Helios’s unemployment rate was lower than the average
even during recession. While it might be attractive to job seekers, it could imply possible
problems and extra costs for corporations. With less people looking for work,
companies that need to hire large number of people would probably need to hire
people from outside of the city or entice current workers with higher wages and better
benefits. Clearly, the low unemployment rate would be unappealing to corporations.
The author should omit this information or use a different way to address this fact.
Secondly, the author claimed that the city of Helios has provided many manufacturing
jobs and that it is the industrial center of the region. This may be helpful if Helios was
trying to invite manufacturing companies; however, it is not the case. The skills and
expertise needed for research and development vary considerably between two
industries; therefore, innovative companies might question whether they would be able
to find suitable candidates. More demographic data would need to be presented in
order to draw a solid conclusion that Helios would be great for the innovative
corporations.
Thirdly, the author mentioned that Helios attempts to attract research of development
companies to expand the economic base. All of the proposals sound more beneficial to
the city than to the corporations. It would be sounder if the author included the benefits
for the companies. For instance, tax deductions, cheap rent, or government funds are
enticing for the corporations.
In conclusion, the argument is flawed for the reasons above and is therefore
unconvincing. In order to improve the proposal, the author would need to establish that
Helios is suitable for different types of industries and to demonstrate that it would be
clear decision to operate in the city. Until then, the argument is unsubstantiated and
open to debate.
359 words. 

Artificial Sweetener
The following appeared in the health section of a magazine on trends and lifestyles:
“People who use the artificial sweetener aspartame are better off consuming sugar, since
aspartame can actually contribute to weight gain rather than weight loss. For example,
high levels of aspartame have been shown to trigger a craving for food by depleting the
brain of a chemical that registers satiety, or the sense of being full. Furthermore, studies
suggest that sugars, if consumed after at least 45 minutes of continuous exercise, actually
enhance the body’s ability to burn fat. Consequently, those who drink aspartame-
sweetened juices after exercise will also lose this calorie-burning benefit. Thus it appears
that people consuming aspartame rather than sugar are unlikely to achieve their dietary
goals.”
The article published on a magazine concluded that people who want to lose weight
would be better to consume sugar than artificial sweetener aspartame. In order to
support this conclusion, the author mentioned side-effects of aspartame and positive
effects of sugar. However, this argument suffers from a number of flaws, ranging from
inconclusive evidence to flimsy reasoning, that would require a re-construct before the
First of all, the author cited a piece of evidence that high levels of aspartame would
trigger food cravings, which, even if true, should be challenge on the basis of its
applicability. It may be true that the artificial sweetener would affect the sense of being
full, but what if it would require an insane amount of aspartame? Or perhaps half
amount of the sugar can trigger the craving more effective than that of the aspartame?
Clearly, the author would need to provide more information regarding both aspartame
and sugar before a more reliable conclusion could be drawn.
Secondly, the author presented a study that suggested that consumption of sugar after
exercise could help the body in burning fat but consumption of aspartame-sweetened
juices afterwards would lose the calorie-burning benefit.  

Management Issues
The following appeared in the editorial section of a corporate newsletter:
“The common notion that workers are generally apathetic about management issues is
false, or at least outdated: a recently published survey indicates that 79 percent of the
nearly 1,200 workers who responded to survey questionnaires expressed a high level of
interest in the topics of corporate restructuring and redesign of benefits programs.”
The article published by a corporate newsletter argued that majority of the workers are
interested in corporate topics and that the impression that workers are insensitive about
management issue is changing, using data from a recent survey. The argument suffers
from a number of flaws, ranging from inconclusive evidence to logical errors, that would
mandate a reconstruction before a reliable conclusion can be drawn.
First of all, the survey presented by author is unconvincing because the process of the
sampling and the design of questionnaire are unknown. Other than that, it’s also unclear
that whether the survey is biased. For example, maybe the survey was conducted in a
fortune 500 company and everyone are passionate about managerial issues.
Additionally, the statistic explicitly states that 1,200 workers responded, which is
questionable. It would be difficult to determine the legitimacy of the date without
knowing the total number of people who were asked to take the survey. The conclusion
would be much weaker if there were over 20,000 people received the questionnaire.
Clearly, the author would need to provide more information regarding the survey in
order to make it plausible.
Secondly, the author made a generalization from the 1,200 workers to all workers and
the types of issues they are interested in. It is possible for workers to care only about the
reconstructing and the benefit programs, two topics that affect the workers the most,
and to be apathetic about other management issues. The author regarded the
complexity of problems within a corporate as two isolated topics. Furthermore, while it
may be true that workers are concerned about the problems, but to what degree could it
be categorized as a high level of interest is unexplained.
In conclusion, the argument is flawed for the reasons stated above and therefore is
unconvincing. In order to make a firm conclusion, the author would need to establish
that the survey cited is unbiased, the sample is representative and the questions are
properly designed and to demonstrate that the conclusion drawn from the survey is
justified. Until then, the argument unsubstantiated and open to debate.
349 words. 9/20 

Blame The Immigrant (Mgmat)
The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper:
“The inflow of immigrant workers into our community has put a downward pressure on
wages. In fact, the average compensation of unskilled labor in our city has declined by
nearly 10% over the past 5 years. Therefore, to protect our local economy, it is essential to
impose a moratorium on further immigration.”
The editorial section of a newspaper concludes that the community should ban further
immigrants because the increasing number of immigrants has negatively affected the
wages. In order to support the proposal, the author has presented historical data but
fails to give information as to why such claim is justified. While the argument has some
merits, it suffers from several flaws, ranging from inconclusive evidence to flimsy logic,
that would need to be reconstructed before the proposal could be carried out.
First of all, the author assumes that the declining wage is caused by immigrant workers
without any supportive evidence. The author paints these two possibly unrelated events
as caused and effect; however, just because they happened in the same period of time
does not mean they are related to each other. In other words, correlation is not
causation. If the author wants people to believe that the immigrants are accounted for
the decreasing wage, he or she will have to provide more information. Additionally, the
author also fails to consider other possible factors that might affect the wage, such as
government policy or weak economy. The author should be able to demonstrate the
process which he or she used to reach the conclusion, and provide relative evidence
before drawing a conclusion.
Secondly, the author cited that the average compensation of unskilled workers has been
declining for 5 years to support the claim. The validity of the claim is again disputable.
The author committed a hasty generalization, using information from only unskilled
workers and assuming that the situation is the same across the community. While it may
be true that the salary has gone down, we have no idea if it's restricted to certain type of
industry or the whole economy. Furthermore, the degree to which these are caused by
immigrants is vague. These doubts call the applicability of the evidence into question,
and without addressing these doubts, the argument remained debatable.

In conclusion, In conclusion, the argument is neither compelling nor persuasive. Because
the argument omits several key issues, it is poorly supported. If the author had
supported his or her points with conclusive evidence and included the items discussed
above, the argument would have been more thorough and convincing.
370 words.
Was definitely running short on time….. Watch out for that 

Middle Aged Consumers
The following appeared in the opinion column of a financial magazine:
“On average, middle-aged consumers devote 39 percent of their retail expenditure to

department store products and services, while for younger consumers the average is only
25 percent. Since the number of middle-aged people will increase dramatically within the
next decade, department stores can expect retail sales to increase significantly during
that period. Furthermore, to take advantage of the trend, these stores should begin to
replace some of those products intended to attract the younger consumer with products
intended to attract the middle-aged consumer.”
The article published on a financial magazine suggests that the department stores
should take measures to attract more middle-aged consumers to increase sales. In order
to support the plan, the author claims that the young consumers spend a much lower
percentage of the expense in department stores. While the argument has some merits, it
suffers from a number of flaws, ranging from baseless assumption to false analogy, that
would need to be reconstructed before a reliable conclusion could be carried out.
First of all, the author claims that adults spend a bigger chunk of the retail expenditure
than younger customers do; However, the author fails to provide further information to
support the data. Were the people selected representative enough? Did people feel
uncomfortable discussing financial expenses and lie? Furthermore, the claim is about
the percentage rather than an absolute number. It may be true that the middle-aged
consumers spend a bigger proportion of the total expenses in the stores, but what if
their total expenses is much lower than those of younger people? These questions call
the validity of the mentioned evidence into question.
Secondly, the proposal falsely depends on a baseless assumption that the middle-aged
customers will increase and will continually spend lots of money within 10 years. But no
evidence is stated to provide a solid ground for the assumption. How can author be so
sure that the number will increase, let alone dramatically increase and that the
purchasing habit will maintain? Perhaps the human species will involve to the point that
we no longer buy things. If author wants us to believe this statement, he or she should
present more information to make this assumption more convincing.

Finally, the author suggests that the department stores should attract more middle-aged
consumers than younger ones. By doing this, the author fails to consider the correlation
between the two. Maybe the middle-aged consumers spend more because they are
paying for their kids, or the middle-aged consumers go to particular stores from their
children’s recommendation. The author sets up the situation in such a way that it seems
like there are only two options and neglects the possibility that the younger consumers
are the reason why middle-aged ones are spending money. Moreover, how about the
department stores attract both types of customers rather than choose one? Since there
are apparently other alternatives, the author should not just simply ignore them, but
explain why they were ruled out.
In conclusion, he argument is neither compelling nor persuasive. Because the author's

then the argument would have been more thorough and convincing.
464 words

Waymarsh College
“This past winter, 200 students from Waymarsh State College traveled to the state capitol
building to protest against proposed cuts in funding for various state college programs.
The other 12,000 Waymarsh students evidently weren’t so concerned about their
education: they either stayed on campus or left for winter break. Since the group who did
not protest is far more numerous, it is more representative of the state’s college students
than are the protesters. Therefore the state legislature need not heed the appeals of the
protesting students.”
The argument published on a newspaper suggests that the state legislature could
ignore protesting students’ appeals. To support the claim, the author presents some
data and draws conclusion. While the argument has some merits, it suffers from a
number of flaws, ranging from inconclusive evidence to groundless assumptions, that
would need to be reconstructed before the proposal could be carried out.
First of all, the author states that only 200 out of 12,200 students from Waymarsh
traveled to capitol to protest. This claim falsely depends on the assumption that the
presence of a person is the only indication that one cares. For instance, the presence of
a student in the class is by no means a definite sign that he or she cares. On the contrary,
the physical absence of a person does not mean that he or she does not care. If this is
true, long distance relationship will never work. It is true that over 12,000 students did
not go to the event, but it’s possible that they sign the petition online or that they use
social media to bring public’s attention to the issue, the best way to attract media and
pressure the legislature. The author should demonstrate the process and premise that
he or she used to draw this assumption, otherwise, the argument is unconvincing.
Secondly, the author argues that the majority of the college is more representative than
the minority. The claim that majority outweighs minority is true most of the time and is
the base for the modern world democracy. But, is Waymarsh the only school that goes to
protest? Perhaps there were over 100 schools joined the event. Similarly, maybe the
funding programs only affect a small number of students and the 200-people group
already consists more than 80% of those students. These questions call the validity of the
mentioned evidence into question. The author would need to provide more evidence to
show that the situation is the same for other schools, that majority of the students are
apathetic about the issues and that these students are representative for all students.
400 wordz

fork this!
ChaseDream - yuenhsu Page 46

yuenhsu
Pretty Little AWA Guide
Montoya
“In the first four years that Montoya has served as mayor of the city of San Perdito, the
population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased. Two businesses have
closed for each new business that has opened. Under Varro, who served as mayor for four
years before Montoya, the unemployment rate decreased and the population increased.
Clearly, the residents of San Perdito would be best served if they voted Montoya out of
office and reelected Varro.”
The argument published on a local newspaper urges the residents of San Perdito to vote
for the pervious mayor, Varro. In order to support this proposal, the author presented the
data of unemployment rates and population. While this argument has some merits, it
suffers from a number of flaws, ranging from inconclusive evidence to groundless
assumptions, that would mandate a reconstruct before a reliable conclusion could be
carried out.
First of all, the author compares the unemployment rate and population from both
mayors to establish that the economy in the city was better under Varro; however, the
author fails to consider other possible factors that would effect the economy other than
the mayor. Perhaps the unemployment rate increased over 10% in the country during
the time Montoya was the mayor and only 5% in the city of San Perdito. Additionally, it is
also important to investigate the unemployment rate further and to figure out the
industry, the average wage and the reason why people lost the job. Did people quit
working to become an entrepreneur, to start their own business or become freelancer
who work for themselves? If this is the case, it would be unfair to conclude that the
economy was worse under Montoya. Therefore, the author needs to present more
information for the unemployment figure and demonstrate that the economy is worse in
San Perdito than in other parts of the world.
Secondly, the author claims that there are more business closed than the ones opened.
Again, a claim without supporting evidence is nothing but an accusation. It is possible
that the companies merge to combine the resources and gain better negotiating power
or that the companies opened are research and development type of innovative
industry, earning a much higher profit and paying workers a higher wages and better
benefit, while the ones closed are more unskilled work with minimal wage. It may be true
that the jobs available decreased, but at the same time, it might motivate people to
invest in education or training to quality for the jobs available. Moreover, perhaps two
small grocery stores closed down and a Walmart Supercenter opened. The argument is
unsound because it is based on a false analogy. Failing to take into account the possible
differences between the business opened and closed. If the author had presents
evidence to explicitly state that the newly opened businesses were not better than the
ones closed, the argument would have been more believable.
Finally, the author clearly sets up the situation in such a way that it looks like the
economy is the only indicator of a mayor’s success. But, this is not all it takes to be a
good candidate. A great mayor should display leadership skills, be capable of making a
touch call, care about social issues other than the economy, and more. Therefore, the
author needs to state more reasons why Varro is a better mayor than Montoya.
535 words… damn girl.  

Daily Gazette
The following appeared as part of a promotional campaign to sell advertising space in the
Daily Gazette to grocery stores in the Marston area:
“Advertising the reduced price of selected grocery items in the Daily Gazette will help you
increase your sales. Consider the results of a study conducted last month. Thirty sale
items from a store in downtown Marston were advertised in The Gazette for four days.
Each time one or more of the 30 items was purchased, clerks asked whether the shopper
had read the ad. Two-thirds of the 200 shoppers asked answered in the affirmative.
Furthermore, more than half the customers who answered in the affirmative spent over
$100 at the store.”
The argument published on Daily Gazette suggests that grocery stores should advertise
sales items with it to increase sales. To support the suggestion, the author presents the
outcome of the previous campaign. While the argument has some merits, it suffers from
a number of flaws, ranging from inconclusive evidence to gratuitous assumptions, that
would require a reconstruct before a reliable conclusion could be carried out.
Most conspicuously, the argument could be biased since it is published on the

promotional campaign rather than by a third-party. The ultimate goal of the passage is to
get more advertisers to spend money, so it is doubtable that Daily Gazette was honest
and that it did not manipulate the data. Just like iPhone advertisements, which never
mentioned how fast the battery drains and how frequent the charging cable needs to be
replaced. While the argument might be genuine, it is possible that it withholds certain
information that’s crucial for advertisers. Therefore, if the author wants to make this
suggestion more believable, he or she should include testimonials from previous
customers to convince potential buyers.
Secondly, the author presents data from a study conducted last month and states that
over two-thirds of the customers from the store saw the ads; however, the author fails to
address that who conducted the study. Moreover, were the customers honest? Or they
were just trying to pay and get out so they randomly answered the question? Likewise,
even though they did see the advertisements, were the ones on Daily Gazette the reason
they came into the store and spent money? Or perhaps they saw the deals on Groupon

and decided to come to the store? All these questions call the validity of the survey into
question. Without answers to these, the argument remains opened and unconvincing.
346 words. 9/23 

Cumquat Cafe & Radio
The following appeared as part of a campaign to sell advertising time on a local radio
station to local businesses:
“The Cumquat Café began advertising on our local radio station this year and was
delighted to see its business increase by 10 percent over last year’s totals. Their success
shows you how you can use radio advertising to make your business more profitable.”
- Logical gap & baseless assumptions

- Groundless assumption -> the increase in profit is because of the radio campaign. Did
not think about the types of customers that each attracts.
- does not mean that others will success.

Nova High School
The following appeared as part of a newspaper editorial:
“Two years ago Nova High School began to use interactive computer instruction in three
academic subjects. The school dropout rate declined immediately, and last year’s
graduates have reported some impressive achievements in college. In future budgets the
school board should use a greater portion of the available funds to buy more computers,
and all schools in the district should adopt interactive computer instruction throughout
the curriculum.”
The argument published on a newspaper suggests that school board of Nova High
School should allocate more funds to buy computers and that all schools should adopt
interactive learning. In order to support the claim, the author presents information
regarding the positive outcome of the Nova. While the argument has some merits, it
suffers from a number of flaws, ranging from inconclusive evidence to flimsy reasoning,
that would mandate a reconstruct before a proposal could be carried out.
Most conspicuously, the author credits the decrease in dropout rate and better
achievements of graduations to the adoption of interactive computer. The author has
painted these events as cause and effect; however, just because these events seem to
be related in time does not mean it is true. That is, correlation is not the same as
causation. The author claims that the dropout rate dropped immediately after the
implementation without providing any supporting evidence to establish that the reason
why the students continue to study is the interactive courses. Perhaps the students
decided to quit for financial reason, but a local corporation came to rescue and funded
for those students, or the students who did not quit were not even enrolled in the
classes that use the new instruction system. Therefore, the author needs to provide
additional information to assert that the application of the new system is the reason that
dropout rate declined.
Additionally, the author readily assumes that the better achievements of the graduates in
college is because of the computer instructive system. By doing this, the author fails to
consider other factors that might affect one’s achievements, such as the easier grading
standards. Just as the flaw states above, more information will need to be presented
before a reliable conclusion could be drawn.
Finally, the author suggests that the school board should assign a bigger proportion of
the money available to purchase more computers and that other schools should also
adopt the system throughout the curriculum. The author commits the fallacy of “all
things are equal.” The fact that the system works for the three academic subjects is not a
sound proof that it would work on all subjects. The author did not consider the different
strengths and skills needed for different courses, as well as the different environments in
different schools. Had the author included the information showing the similarities
between the schools, the argument would have been more convincing.
449 words. 

Motorcycle X
The following appeared as part of an article in the business section of a local newspaper.
“Motorcycle X has been manufactured in the United States for over 70 years. Although one
foreign company has copied the motorcycle and is selling it for less, the company has
failed to attract motorcycle X customers - some say because its products lacks the
exceptionally loud noise made by motorcycle X. But there must be some other
explanation. After all, foreign cars tend to be quieter than similar American-made cars,
but they sell at least as well. Also, television advertisements for motorcycle X highlight its
durability and sleek lines, not its noisiness and the ads typically have voice-overs or rock
music rather than engine roar on the sound track.”
The argument appears on a local newspaper concluded that the failure of the foreign
company that copied motorcycle X and sells for less is not because the lack of the noice,
which is common on products made by motorcycle X. To support the conclusion, the
author presents the information about the cars and advertisements. While the argument
has some merits, it suffers from a number of flaws, ranging from inconclusive evidence
to flimsy reasoning, that would need to be better addressed before a reliable conclusion
could be drawn.
Most conspicuously, the whole argument falsely based on a groundless assumption that
similar products with a cheaper price tag would attract customers from motorcycle x;
however, no evidence is provided to support this assumption. While it may be true that
discounted price encourages people to buy, this is not always the case, especially for
luxurious products, such as designer bags and motorcycles. The expensive price
provides the exclusivity for the people who can afford and the mass market tricks would
not work. On the other hand, customers would probably link cheaper price with
compromised quality, worrying about personal safety on the motorcycle. Hence, the
author should demonstrate the process which he or she uses to get this assumption and
establish that the sales are expected to be better, or at least the same, for both
companies in order to build a solid base for the argument.
Additionally, the author claims that the foreign company fails to attract customers from
Motorcycle X without showing that whether the intended customers are the ones from
motorcycle X. It is possible that the foreign company wanted to attract a different types
of customers, such as those who can’t afford the motorcycle X but still want a similar
bike. It is also questionable that whether a customer would switch to a different product
because the design is similar. Moreover, the author accounts the failure of the foreign
company sales to the lack of loud noises without supportive evidence; the reason might
be that people simply don’t appreciate knock off products. If the author had stated
information to explain the differences and customers demographics, the argument
would have be more convincing.
Finally, the author cites the data from car sales to draw conclusion that the lack of noise
is not the reason for the failure of the sales. By doing this, the author commits a fallacy of
hasty generalization and fails to consider the dissimilarities between a car and a
motorcycle. Just as people are fine with motorcycles without doors does not mean that
people can accept a car with no doors. Furthermore, the author states another reason to
attest that the selling point of motorcycle x is not the noise because the advertisements
typically have voice-over and rock music. But what a advertisement does is to build up
the image of the product and associate with rock culture, it doesn’t mean that people
aren’t attracted to motorcycle x for the noise. Just as an advertisement for stereo system
does not just blast music but show that how a good sound system could make life better.
All these concerns call the validity of the conclusion into questions.
In conclusion, the argument is flawed and therefore unconvincing for the reasons stated
above. The author needs to provide more evidence in order to make the assumption
solid and to rule out other possibilities that might effect the sales of the foreign
company. Until then, the argument is unsubstantiated and open to debate.
583 words…. Girl you have gone wayyyyy over. Calm down. 

Peptcaid
The following appeared in an article in a consumer-products magazine:
“Two of today’s best-selling brands of full-strength prescription medication for the relief
of excess stomach acid, Acid-Ease and Pepticaid, are now available in milder
nonprescription forms. Doctors have written 76 million more prescriptions for full-
strength Acid-Ease than for full-strength Pepticaid. So people who need an effective but
milder nonprescription medication for the relief of excess stomach acid should choose
Acid-Ease.”
The argument published on a consumer-products magazine suggests that people who

are looking for stomach relief acid should choose Acid-Ease over Pepticaid because the
former option is much more popular. To support the conclusion, the author presents the
data regarding the number of prescriptions written by the doctors. While the argument
has some merits, it suffers from a number of flaws, ranging from flimsy reasoning to
inconclusive evidence, that would need to be reconstructed before the proposal could
be carried out.
Most conspicuously, the author draws the conclusion by the fact that doctors have
written 76 million more prescriptions for Acid-Ease than for Pepticaid. The author
presents the data in such a way that it seems like there are only two choices for the relief
of excess stomach acid. Then the author proceeds to eliminate one of the option, and
we are left with only one choices, which is the one author wants us to pick at the first
place. But this is often not the real situation; it is possible that there are other
medications prescribed even more than Acid-Ease. Therefore, the author should not just
simply rule out the alternatives but provide reasons why they were not included.
Additionally, the reason that author recommends the Acid-Ease is because of its
popularity. Doing this, the author commits a fallacy of mistaken popularity to quality.
Popularity does not equal to quality; just take a look at the Billboard’s top 40 music list!
Moreover, the author fails to consider other factors that will effect doctors or patients
decision on medications. For instance, allergy reaction, insurance coverage, access to
pharmacy, and more are all important factors. If the author wants to make suggestion
about the Acid-Ease, he or she should present more information about the drug and
establish that popularity is not the only reason.
Finally, the author falsely depends the recommendation on the baseless assumption that
the quality of the general medication would equal to that of the prescription form.
However, no evidence is
stated in the argument to support this assumption. Hence, the validity of the argument
remains doubtable more supportive evidence can back up the assumption.
408 words. 

Not-For-Profit Organization
The following appeared in a memorandum from the head of a human resources
department at a major automobile manufacturing company to the company's managers:
“Studies have found that employees of not-for-profit organizations and charities are
often more highly motivated than employees of for-profit corporations to perform well at
work when their performance is not being monitored or evaluated. Interviews with
employees of not-for-profit organizations suggest that the reason for their greater
motivation is the belief that their work helps to improve society. Because they believe in
the importance of their work, they have personal reasons to perform well, even when no
financial reward is present. Thus, if our corporation began donating a significant portion
of its profits to humanitarian causes, our employees’ motivation and productivity would
increase substantially and our overall profits would increase as well.”
The memorandum from the head of human resources suggests that the company
should donate a significant portion of the profit for good cause in order to motivate the
employee and increase the profit. To support the conclusion, the author refers to studies
that have found that the staffs from NFO and charities are more motivated. While the
argument has some merits, it suffers from a number of flaws, ranging from inconclusive
evidence and flimsy reasoning, that would need to be reconstructed before a reliable
conclusion can be drawn.
Most conspicuously, the ultimate goal of the plan is to increase overall profit of the
corporation, completely the opposite from the purpose of non-profit organizations and
charities. The author ignores all other differences between a corporation and charity,
such as the prospect of the company, and draws conclusion. Moreover, the argument
falsely depends on the assumption that donation from the corporation would have the
same motivation to the employees as to the employees in the charities. However, no
evidence is stated to support the assumption. Therefore, the argument is unconvincing.
Additionally, the author presents the outcome of studies and claims that the work
performance for employees of NPO or charities are better than those of for-profit
corporations when not being evaluated or monitored. The validity of the study is
questionable because the huge difference between these two types of organization.

What considers decent performance in the charity might not be considered so in the
corporation. Hence, the author needs to define the standards for work performance.
Finally, the author accounts the greater motivation in NPO to the belief that their work
improves the society. But the author fails to consider other possible factors that will
affect one’s productivity. Perhaps it’s the better wage and benefits, or the non-hierarchy
structure that truly motivate the people. It may be true that the sense of achievement is
what inspires the workers; however, the author should not just rule out other possibilities
without reasons.
379 words 

Mammon Savings And Loan
The following appeared in a memo from the customer service division to the manager of
Mammon Savings and Loan:
“We believe that improved customer service is the best way for us to differentiate
ourselves from competitors and attract new customers. We can offer our customers better
service by reducing waiting time in teller lines from an average of six minutes to an
average of three. By opening for business at 8:30 instead of 9:00, and by remaining open
for an additional hour beyond our current closing time, we will be better able to
accommodate the busy schedules of our customers. These changes will enhance our
bank’s image as the most customer-friendly bank in town and give us the edge over our
competition.”
The argument appeared in a memo to the manager of Mammom Saving and Loan
suggests that the company should change the opening hour to enhance the back’s
image. To support the proposal, the author draws a correlation between the wait time
and the customer satisfaction; however, the argument suffers from a number of flaws,
ranging from inconclusive evidence to baseless assumption, that would need a
reconstruct before a solid proposal could be carried out.
Firstly, the author assumes that reducing wait time from six minutes to three minutes
could improve customer service. While it may true that the reduced wait time could help
with customer satisfaction, but what if most of the customers use the application on the
phone and not go into the branch? If this is the case, then reducing wait time would
have no effect to the customers. In the contrary, if most of the customers come into the
store, then the reduced wait time would surely improve customer service. Therefore, the
author should demonstrate that the wait time is important for the customers to make a
sounder assumption.
Secondly, the author states that by extending the opening hour, the store would be able
to better accommodate the customers, a weak and unconvincing claim that provides no
evidence to show that the extended hour would suit customers’ schedules. Perhaps the
customers mostly come in during lunch time since they want to return home to relax
after work. If the author had provided that the extended operating hour is surely helpful
for the customers, the argument would be strengthened.
Finally, the author claims that the changes will give the bank the edge over the
competition and will become the most customer-friendly bank in town and fails to
consider other factors that affect customers’ perception of a bank, such as interest rates
of the loan, professional knowledge of the staff, return rates on the investment, and
more. Although the customer service is also an important part, it is not the only decisive
factor. These doubts call the validity of the plan into question, and the author would
need to address these concerns in order to draw a indisputable proposal.
411 words

City L
The following appeared as part of an article in a magazine on lifestyles:
“Two years ago, City L was listed 14th in an annual survey that ranks cities according to
the quality of life that can be enjoyed by those living in them. This information will enable
people who are moving to the state in which City L is located to confidently identify one
place, at least, where schools are good, housing is affordable, people are friendly, the
environment is safe, and the arts flourish.”
The passage appeared on a lifestyle magazine concludes that ranking of the quality of
life can help people identify the quality of city L, where has good schools, affordable
housing and friendly people. To support the conclusion, the author presents the data
from a survey conducted two years ago. While the argument has some merits, it suffers
from a number of flaws, ranging from the inconclusive evidence to flimsy reasoning, that
would need to be reconstructed before a reliable conclusion could be drawn.
Most conspicuously, the author cites the information from a survey two years ago and
states that City L was listed 14th of quality of life. The validity of the information is
questionable for the reason that the author provides no evidence to show the total
number of the cities, the process used for evaluating the quality, and more. Consider, for
instance, what if there were only 15 cities on the list? If this is the case, 14th rank is
probably a worrying place. On the contrary, if there are over 100 cities on the list, then a
rank at 14th is good and the argument is strengthened. Thus, the author needs to
provide further information regarding the survey in order to establish that the 14th place
is a good sign.
Additionally, the author claims that the ranking can help people who are moving there
to identify a decent destination city. However, the author fails to consider that the
standard of the quality of life is different for everyone, what considered a good quality of
a neighborhood might not be so for a different person. For example, a gun-loving family
might prefer to live in a city that allows open carry, something that is considered
dangerous for family with kids. If the author provided information about the traits of
good quality of life, the argument would be clearer.

Finally, the argument falsely based on an assumption that the standard of quality life is
the same for people living in the city and those moving in. While it may be true that
certain things are always considered good for everyone, such as good food, great music
and reasonable real estate price, there are more factors that affect people’s perspective
of life. Perhaps the people living in the City L have higher than national average wage,
and therefore, they can still enjoy life in an expensive city; on the other hand, it would be
a different story for people wants to move in. Moreover, it’s possible that City L is
considered safe and vibrant city is because only rich people can afford to live there. All
these doubts call the applicability of the argument into questions.
In conclusion, the argument is flawed and therefore is unconvincing for the reasons
stated above. The author omits several key issues, leaving the argument open to debate.
If the author had backed up his or her conclusion with more conclusive evidence, the
argument and the conclusion would be more through and believable.
498 words. 

Violent Movie V.S. Crime Rate
The following appeared in a newspaper editorial:
“As violence in movies increases, so do crime rates in our cities. To combat this problem
we must establish a board to censor certain movies, or we must limit admission to
persons over 21 years of age. Apparently our legislators are not concerned about this issue
since a bill calling for such actions recently failed to receive a majority vote.”
The argument published on a newspaper editorial proposes that the violence in movies
should be censored or the admission should be limited to people over 21 years old
because the crime rates has increased. To support this argument, the author draws a
correlation between the violence in movie and the crime rates. While this argument has
some merits, it suffers from a number of flaws, ranging from inconclusive evidence to
flimsy reasoning, that would need to be reconstructed before a reliable conclusion could
be drawn.
Most conspicuously, the author assumes that the increase in crime rates is because of
the increases in the movie. The author has painted these two events as cause and effect;
but, just because two events are related in time does not mean that they are in a cause
and effect relationship. That is, correlation is not the same as causation. Perhaps the
crime rates increase is because of the law, which considers previously legal activities
illegal now, such as the usage of soft drug or the delayed payment of parking tickets. If
the author wants to establish the causation between two events, he or she should
provide more evidence to show that the crime increases is indeed violent crime and rule
out other possible factors that could affect crime rates.
Additionally, the author suggests that that the cities should establish a board to modify
certain movies or set a limit for admissions. While these measures may be helpful in
preventing underage kids seeing violent scenes, they could have negative outcome.
Prohibition and restriction are never the best way to keep children away from things,
which they might be interested in. If these rules could work, there wouldn’t be so many
underage kids trying to buy alcohol, proving that these measures will only motivate
children to come up with strategy in order to get access to the movies. All these doubts
call the applicability of the proposal into questions, and without addressing to these
concerns, the argument is unconvincing.
Finally, the author claims that the legislators are apathetic about the issue because the
relating bill failed to receive a majority vote. Again, this may or may not be the truth
because the politics are much more complicated than people realized. Failure of a bill
could be the reason that the opposite party refused to vote or that the lawmakers are
lobbied by the movie industry. Hence, the claim is disputable.
In conclusion, the argument is flawed and therefore is open to debate for the reasons
stated above. In order to improve the argument, the author should first demonstrate that
the violent movies are the reasons for the increases in crime rates. Second, establish that
the measures suggested by the author would not back fire.
458 words 

Cambria Ambulance
The following appeared in the editorial section of a West Cambria newspaper:
“A recent review of the West Cambria volunteer ambulance service revealed a longer
average response time to accidents than was reported by a commercial ambulance squad
located in East Cambria. In order to provide better patient care for accident victims and to
raise revenue for our town by collecting service fees for ambulance use, we should
disband our volunteer service and hire a commercial ambulance service.”
The argument published on West Cambria Newspaper suggests that the city should
discontinue the volunteer ambulance service and hire commercial one. In order to
support the proposal, the author cited a review to show that volunteer takes longer time
to response than the commercial does. While the argument has some merits, it suffers
from a number of flaws, ranging from inconclusive evidence to flimsy reasoning, that
would need to be reconstructed before a solid proposal could be carried out.
Most conspicuously, the entire argument based on the outcome of the review; however,
the validity of the review is questionable for the reason that author provides no evidence
to support it. How was the review conducted? Were the sample representative? Even if it
is true that the commercial ambulance squad in East Cambria responds faster than the
volunteer one in West Cambria, it does not indicate that commercial squad provides
better service for patients. What if the West Cambria is a huge traffic hub? The traffic
congestion is the reason why it takes longer to respond, a situation that does not exist in
East part. If this is the case, then the suggestion that replacing the volunteer service
would be completely destroyed. Hence, the author should presents more information in
order to rule out other factors that might cause the longer response time in West
Cambria; otherwise, the argument is vulnerable and can easily be objected.
Additionally, the author claims that the plan will be able to provide better care for
accident victims and to raise revenue from service fees for ambulance. The design of the
plan is highly questionable from the standpoint of practicality, even without
consideration of the moral implications. The emergency medical service should be more
about saving life instead of making profits; moreover, the author assumes that because
the East commercial squad arrived faster, it provides better care for people, a
groundless assumption that’s more a wishful thinking than a persuasive claim.
Furthermore, the author also assumes that the commercial emergency squad is better
than the volunteer one without any supportive evidence. If someone is willing to do such
hard work as an ambulance response team, it is possible that he or she is dedicated in
the cause. Therefore, the author needs to better phrase the goal of raising revenue and
to demonstrate the process which he or she uses to arrive at the assumption.
above. If the author could provide more materials to better address the concerns
discussed, the argument would have been more through and believable.
434 words. 

Fern Valley University
The following appeared as part of a recommendation from the financial planning office to
the administration of Fern Valley University:
“In the past few years, Fern Valley University has suffered from a decline in both
enrollments and admissions applications. The reason can be discovered from our
students, who most often cite poor teaching and inadequate library resources as their
chief sources of dissatisfaction with Fern Valley. Therefore, in order to increase the
number of students attending our university, and hence to regain our position as the most
prestigious university in the greater Fern Valley metropolitan area, it is necessary to
initiate a fund-raising campaign among the alumni that will enable us to expand the
range of subjects we teach and to increase the size of our library facilities.”
The recommendation to the administration of Fern Valley University suggests that the
university to start a fundraising campaign to expand the subjects and increase the size of
library facilities to stop further decline in enrollments and admissions applications. In
order to support the proposal, the author cites that the teaching and insufficient
resources at the library are the major reason for the dissatisfaction. While the argument
has some merits, it suffers from a number of flaws, ranging from inconclusive evidence
to flimsy reasoning, that would need to be reconstructed before a solid proposal could
be carried out.
Most conspicuously, the proposal is based on the dissatisfaction of current or former

students. It may be true that future students are aware of the lack of resources, but the
degree to which these are causing the decline in application is unknown. Perhaps the
school has been cutting advertising fund, therefore less people know about Fern Valley
University. Or perhaps the school is currently under investigation for some scandals.
Hence, the author needs to present more information to establish that the dissatisfaction
proposed by its students is the same for the perspective students before ruling out other
possibilities.
Additionally, the author falsely assumes that increasing the number of students would
be able to regain the prestigious position without any supportive evidence. Just because
the Fern Valley is improving does not mean that other universities are not doing so.
Furthermore, the author proposes to start a fundraising campaign among the alumni
and to use the money to expand subjects available at school and increase library
facilities. By doing so, the author draw a recommendation from the dissatisfaction that
students have. However, are these really what students want? When they say they are not
happy with the poor teaching, do they mean that they want more subjects? Or do they
mean that they think the professors are not knowledgeable for the subjects? It is the
same for the library sources. Do the students mean that they want a bigger library? Or
are they actually complaining about the lack of research paper available for rent? All
these questions call the validity of the plan into question and the author should address
these concerns and demonstrate that the increase in the range of subjects and the size
of library facilities is what the students want.
above. If the author had provided extra materials for the concerns discussed, the
argument would have been more through and solid. Until then, it remains vulnerable to
criticism and open to debate.
433 words 

Avia Airlines
The following appeared in an Avia Airlines departmental memorandum:
“On average, 9 out of every 1,000 passengers who traveled on Avia Airlines last year filed a
complaint about our baggage-handling procedures. This means that although some 1
percent of our passengers were unhappy with those procedures, the overwhelming
majority were quite satisfied with them; thus it would appear that a review of the
procedures is not important to our goal of maintaining or increasing the number of Avia’s
passengers.”
The argument appeared on Avia Airlines memorandum suggests that customers’

reviews of the baggage-handling procedures are not important for the airline. In order
to support this argument, the author presents data regarding the customer complaint
about the procedures. While the argument has some merits, it suffers from a number of
flaws, ranging from inconclusive evidence to flimsy reasoning, that would need to be
reconstructed before a solid conclusion could be carried out.
Most conspicuously, the entire argument is based on the information that only 9 out of
1,000 passengers filed complaint. However, no evidence is presented to support the
validity of this information. Did the airline only count in the complaints filed in certain
forms? Such as via email or on paper? What if most of the customers made a complain
to the staff? Since this information is the basis for the conclusion, the author should
present more material to demonstrate that the information is believable.
Additionally, the author claims that only less than 1 percent of the passengers were
unhappy with the procedures. By doing so, the author fails to consider that not filing
complaints does not equal to happy with the service; it could be the reason that
customers have no motivation or incentive to take extra time and effort to make a
complaint and it is easier for customers to just switch airline. Moreover, it could be that
the customers have difficult time to figure out how to make a complaint. Nevertheless, all
these concerns call the claim into question and the author would need to rule out other
possibilities before drawing conclusion that those who did not file the complaint are
happy with the service.

Finally, the author suggests that the complaints are not important because it only
consists a small number of customers, a weak reasoning.  

Leisure Shopping Of Americans
The following appeared in a newspaper editorial during the holiday shopping season:
"Americans spend far too much of their time buying and consuming non-essential goods.
Studies show that, on average Americans spend over a quarter of their leisure time
shopping. As such, it is no secret why America is losing its competitive edge relative to
other countries. Instead of spending their time productively, Americans are wasting time
through frivolous consumption. In order to counteract this trend, Americans should
spend more time focused on personal and communal development--by, for example,
pursuing educational advancement or participating in volunteer opportunities."
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. Point out flaws in the argument's logic
and analyze the argument's underlying assumptions. In addition, evaluate how supporting
evidence is used and what evidence might counter the argument's conclusion. You may
also discuss what additional evidence could be used to strengthen the argument or what
changes would make the argument more logically sound.
The argument appeared on a newspaper suggested that Americans should spend more
time focused on personal and communal development than on frivolous consumption.
In order to support the conclusion, the author cited data from a survey. While the
argument has some merits, it suffered from a number of flaws, ranging from inconclusive
evidence to flimsy reasoning, that would require a reconstruct before a reliable
conclusion could be carried out.
Most conspicuously, the entire argument is falsely based on the assumption that the
information from the studies is representative; however, no evidence is stated to support
the validity of the studies. How was the study conducted? Were the sample
representative? What is the definition of leisure shopping? All these questions call the
outcome of the studies into question. If the author had provided more materials to
establish that the studies are indeed trustworthy, the assumption would have a solid
ground. On the contrary, the assumption would be baseless and therefore is more a
wishful thinking.
Additionally, the author claims that America is losing its competitive edge over other
countries and this is again a doubtable assumption. What if citizens of other countries
spend more time on leisure shopping? Or that the average lifespan of Americans is way
longer than those of other countries? Furthermore, the author assumes that the time
spends on leisure shopping is the time not spends on productivity. The author
constructs the argument in such a way that it seems like the two options are
contradicted. But, the author fails to consider other possibilities. Consider, for instance,
the time spent on leisure shopping can actually improve productivity or the urge to shop
motivates people to be more productive at work. Nevertheless, the author needs to
provide more information to support the claim.
Finally, the author proposes that Americans should spend more time on personal and
communal development. While it may be true that spend more time on meaningful
development can increase a country's competitiveness, it is unknown that whether these
measurements will have the intended outcome. Moreover, the author draws a
correlation between these events without providing evidence to the linkage of them.
Hence, the assumption is again disputable without supportive information.
above. Because the argument omits several key issues, it is poorly supported. If the
author had supported his or her points with conclusive evidence and included the items
discussed above, the argument would have been more thorough and solid.
416 words. 23 minutes. Manhattan 2 AWA 

Hospital
The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper:
“There is a common misconception that university hospitals are better than community
or private hospitals. This notion is unfounded, however: the university hospitals in our
region employ 15 percent fewer doctors, have a 20 percent lower success rate in treating
patients, make far less overall profit, and pay their medical staff considerably less than do
private hospitals. Furthermore, many doctors at university hospitals typically divide their
time among teaching, conducting research, and treating patients. From this it seems clear
that the quality of care at university hospitals is lower than that at other kinds of
hospitals.”
The argument published on a newspaper concludes that the quality of care at university
hospitals is lower than that at other kinds of hospitals. In order to support this
conclusion, the author compared the number of doctors and the percentage of success
rates. While the argument has some merits, it suffers from a number of flaws, ranging
from inconclusive evidence to flimsy assumption, that would need to be reconstructed
before a reliable conclusion could be carried out.
Most conspicuously, the author claims that the university hospitals employ fewer doctors
and have lower success rate than private or community hospitals; however, the claim is
questionable since the author provides no supportive evidence. What was the source of
these information? Was the information unbiased? While it may be true that the
university hospitals have fewer doctors, it could be the reason that the advancement in
medical technology has allowed the hospital to cut down the number of doctors without
compromising the quality of the care. It is the same for the lower success rate. Perhaps
the patients are on their way to recovery, but they switch hospitals last minute; if this is
the case, it would be unfair to conclude that the university hospitals are less successful in
treating patients because the private hospitals take credits for the recovery. Additionally,
it could also be that the university hospitals are willing to take patients whom are not
taken by other hospitals. Had the author provided evidence to establish that fewer
doctors and less success rate have negative effect on the quality of care, the argument
would have been more solid. Without the additional evidence, the validity of the
information is in doubt.

Additionally, the author falsely based on an assumption that doctors at university
hospitals divide their time among many things and therefore decrease the quality of
care. But the author didn’t provide proper material to build a ground for the assumption.
Some people are just good at multitasking. Furthermore, the teaching and research
might be good because doctors need to absorb new information and pay attention to
new development or technology in the medical field. Hence, this assumption without
further supportive information is just a wishful thinking than a substantiate statement.
Finally, the author concluded that the quality of care at the university hospitals is lower
than that at other kinds of hospitals, a hasty generalization without definition of the
quality of care. Is the author referring to the facility, the staff, the cost or the environment
of the hospital? In addition, is it really fair to compare these types of hospitals when they
each consist of different people and have different goals? All these questions call the
conclusion into doubts.
In conclusion, despite that the argument seems solid, it is flawed and unconvincing
because the author omits key issues that are essential in order to have full knowledge of
all contributing factors. If the author had backed up his or her points with conclusive
evidence and included the items discussed above, then the argument would have been
more thorough and convincing.
510 words. 30 minutes 

Robin Good
The following appeared as part of a column in a popular entertainment magazine:
“The producers of the forthcoming movie 3003 will be most likely to maximize their
profits if they are willing to pay Robin Good several million dollars to star in it—even
though that amount is far more than any other person involved with the movie will make.
After all, Robin has in the past been paid a similar amount to work in several films that
were very financially successful.”
The argument appeared on a magazine suggests that the producers of the movie 3003
should pay Robin Good a substantial amount of money to star in the movie if they want
to maximize the profit. In order to support this conclusion, the author cites the sales of
the movies that Robin Good participated in the past. While the argument has some
merits, it suffers from a number of flaws, ranging from inconclusive evidence to flimsy
reasoning, that would require a reconstruction before a solid proposal could be carried
out.
Most conspicuously, the argument is falsely based on an assumption that the feature of
Robin Good would increase the profit; however, no evidence is provided to support this
assumption. Although it may be true that the movies that Robin Good are in all do well in
sales, it is unknown whether Robin Good is the reason. Perhaps Good only works with
prestigious directors who produce high quality and popular movies. In other words, just
because two events are related in time does not mean that they are in a cause and effect
relation. Hence, the author should provide more material to build a solid ground for the
assumption, showing that the feature of Good will indeed boost sales.
Additionally, the author suggests that the producing team should pay Good a huge
amount of money that is similar to what he was paid in the previous movies. Doing so,
the author fails to consider other factors that might affect the amount of money paid to
Good. What if Good was paid more because he invested in the movies? Or that he got
paid a certain percentage of the ticket sales, which he only received after the movie
became successful? Without knowing the full scope, it is unconvincing for the author to
make such suggestion just by the fact that Good used to get paid in a similar amount of
money.

Finally, the author concluded that the appearance of Good will be beneficial to the
money. But, what if the movie is in a genre that’s completely different from the ones
Good used to starred in? Maybe Good mostly plays roles of muscular man, if this is the
case then it would be unfit to feature him to play the leading role of The Danish Girl, a
film of the story of the first transgender man. Therefore, the author must present more
information to show that Good is indeed a good candidate for the cast. Otherwise, the
argument is more a wishful thinking than substantiate evidence.
In conclusion, the argument is flawed and therefore unconvincing because the author
omits several key issues that are essential in order to understand the full knowledge of
all contributing factors. If the author had provided extra information to support his or her
points, the argument would be more solid and through.
474 words. 22:11~22:36 Friday, October 5, 2018 

Manhattan Exam 2
The following appeared in an article in a human resources magazine:
"Six months ago, in an experiment aimed at boosting worker productivity, Company Z

started providing free gourmet lunches to its employees. The Company hoped that these
office lunches would encourage employees to remain in the building during lunch-hour
and motivate employees to work harder throughout the day. A survey found that soon
after the lunch program was implemented, the average number of hours worked by most
Company Z employees increased dramatically. During this same period, the Company's
profits also increased substantially. Thus, it is safe to say that the lunch program was a
huge success and that Company Z should make the program permanent."
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. Point out flaws in the argument's logic
and analyze the argument's underlying assumptions. In addition, evaluate how supporting
evidence is used and what evidence might counter the argument's conclusion. You may
also discuss what additional evidence could be used to strengthen the argument or what
changes would make the argument more logically sound.
The argument published on a magazine suggests that Company Z provide free lunches
to its employees because the number of hours worked and the profit both increased
substantially. In order to support the conclusion, the author draws a correlation between
the lunch program with the increased profit. While the argument has some merits, it
suffers from a number of flaws, ranging from inconclusive evidence to flimsy reasoning,
that would require a reconstruct before a more solid proposal could be carried out.
Most conspicuously, the entire argument is falsely based on a groundless assumption

that the increased work hours and profits are due to the lunch program; however, no
evidence is provided to support this assumption. Perhaps the lunch program started
right before the busy, holiday season, during which the working hours and profits always
increase whether with the implementation of the lunch program or not. If the author
could establish that the increased work hours and profits are not related to other factors
than the lunch program, the assumption would have a solid ground; otherwise, the
argument is more a wishful thinking than substantiative evidence.

Additionally, the author readily draws the correlation between the lunch program with
the increased work hours and the profits. But, just because these events seem to be
related in time does not mean that they are in a cause and effect relation. That is,
correlation is different from causation. Moreover, it may be true that the lunch program
allows employees to stay in the office and possibly put in more hours, it is difficult to
determine whether the increased profits come from these additional worked hours. It
could be the reason that the company also implemented a series of cost-cutting policies
and the substantially increased profits mostly come from the reduced costs. Hence, the
author needs to provide explanations before establishing the relationship between the
events.
Finally, the author proposes that Company Z make the program permanent without
analyzing the cost and the benefit of the program. Although the author mentions the
increased work hours and profits, no information about the cost is provided. What if the
free lunch actually costs the company more than the benefit? Or the accompanying
trash, recycle, electricity spending? All these questions call the applicability of the
program into questions. Had the author provided a cost analysis of the program, the
conclusion would be more convincing.
In conclusion, the argument is flawed and is therefore unconvincing for the reasons
stated above. In order to improve the argument, the author needs to first establish a
ground for the assumption and demonstrate that the benefit of the program does
outweigh the cost. Until then, the conclusion is unsubstantiated and open to debate.
451 words. Monday, October 8, 2018 

Mgmat 4 - Relocation & Warehouses
The following memo was circulated by the management team of a retail company:
“We are very pleased to announce the relocation of our inventory, which had been located
in four different warehouses throughout the country, to a single new warehouse near
Company headquarters in Boston. This consolidated location will cut the company’s
expenses for warehouse rent in half. As a result we expect our monthly profitability to go
up by this amount.”
The memo circulated in a retail company concludes that the management should expect
the monthly profitability to increase because the decreasing expenses for the warehouse
rent after relocating from four locations to a single one. While the argument has some
reasoning, that would require a reconstruction before a more solid proposal could be
carried out.
Most conspicuously, the entire argument depends on a groundless assumption that the
relocation will cut the warehouse expense in half; however, no evidence is provided to
support the assumption. While it is true that the rent expense will be cut by 50%, there
are other costs that the author fails to consider, such as the relocation fee and the
budget to re-hire workers for the warehouse. If the author had provided a details cost
and benefit analysis of the relocation, then the argument would have been
strengthened.
Additionally, the author claims that the monthly profitability will go up by assuming that
the revenue of the company won’t be affected, or, at least, won’t decrease as much as
the expenses. But, what if the new consolidated location actually has negative impact?
For instance, the company might have retail locations around the country and now it
needs to spend much more money and time to transport the goods than before. If this
were the case, the author cannot claim that the profitability will increase by the amount
that the company saves from the rent because other costs might go up as well. All these
concerns call the validity of the conclusion into question, and without answers to
address these concerns, the conclusion is vulnerable to criticism.

In conclusion, the argument is flawed and therefore unconvincing for the reasons
discussed above. In order to improve the argument, the author would firstly need to
demonstrate that, even with all related cost, the money spend on relocation would still
be cheaper than the current four warehouses, and, secondly, provide further material to
establish that the cost of operation will not dramatically increase after the relocation and
that the revenue of the company won’t be effected too much by this move. Until then,
the argument is unsubstantiated and open to debate.
375 words. October 9, 2018 at 6:06 PM 24 minutes.

Elm City
The following editorial appeared in the Elm City paper:
“The construction last year of a shopping mall in downtown Oak City was a mistake. Since
the mall has opened, a number of local businesses have closed, and the downtown area
suffers from an acute parking shortage, and arrests for crime and vagrancy have
increased in the nearby Oak City Park. Elm City should pay attention to the example of the
Oak City mall and deny the application to build a shopping mall in Elm City.”
The argument published in the Elm city paper suggests that Elm City deny the
application to build a shopping mall because a series of concerning events that
happened after the construction of the mall in Oak City. To support this conclusion, the
author merely draws a correlation between two cities. While the argument has merits, it
suffers from a number of flaws, ranging from inconclusive evidence and flimsy
reasoning, that would need to be reconstruct before a more reliable proposal could be
carried out.
Most conspicuously, the entire argument is based on an assumption that the

construction of the mall in Oak city led to the increase in the number of businesses that
closed, the shortage of parking space, and number of people who were arrested;
however, the author provides no evidence to support the claim. Just because these
events seem to be related in time does not mean that they are in a cause and effect
relationship. In other words, correlation is not causation. If the author wants to convince
people that the opening of the mall is indeed the reason for the increase in a series of
unfortunate events, he or she should be able to provide supportive evidence and rule
out other possibilities.
Additionally, the author constructs the argument in such a way that it seems that there
were no positive impacts of the mall. While it may be true that there are some
businesses closed after the opening of the mall, it is possible that the mall provides
much more employment opportunities. Similarly, the claim that the shortage of parking
was due to the mall is also disputable. What if the mall actually provides shuttle bus free
of charge and has successfully encouraged people to take the public transport? Hence,
the author should provide a conclusive analysis of all the positive and negative impact of
the plan before disputing the construction of the mall.
Finally, the author made another groundless assumption that what happened in Oak city
will also happen in Elm city. By doing so, the author fails to consider the differences
between two cities, such as the population and demographic.

The following appeared in an article in a health–and–fitness magazine:

“Laboratory studies show that Saluda Natural Spring Water contains several of the
minerals necessary for good health and that it is completely free of bacteria. Residents of
Saluda, the small town where the water is bottled, are hospitalized less frequently than the
national average. Even though Saluda Natural Spring Water may seem expensive, drinking
it instead of tap water is a wise investment in good health.”
The argument appeared in a magazine concludes that drinking the water from Saluda
Natural Spring is a wise investment. In order to support this conclusion, the author
presents the information that lower-than-average rate of hospitalized residents of
Saluda. While the argument has some merits, it suffers from a number of flaws, ranging
from inconclusive evidence to flimsy reasoning, that would need to be reconstructed
before a more solid conclusion could be carried out.
Most conspicuously, the argument is based on a groundless assumption that the

residents of Saluda drink the water from Saluda Natural Spring; however, no evidence is
provided to support the assumption. Just because the water is bottled in Saluda does
not mean that the residents consume the water from the spring. Perhaps only companies
with a certain license are allowed to bottle water from the spring. If this is the case, the
argument will be destroyed because people from Saluda don't drink the spring water
from there. On the contrary, if the author could present further material to show that
people of Saluda do drink the water from the spring, the argument would have a more
strong base.
Additionally, the author claims that the residents of Saluda are hospitalized less
frequently than the national average, a claim that is doubtable for its validity. By doing
so, the author fails to consider other possibilities that would decrease the rate of
hospitalization. Consider, what if Saluda lacks basic medical facilities or residents of
Saluda believe in natural healing more than in modern medicine? Or, even, the death
rate of residents of Saluda is much higher than the national average? Had the author
given more information to establish that the lower rate of hospitalization is indeed a
positive sign before ruling out other possible outcomes one might infer from it, the
argument would be more convincing.

Finally, the author draws a correlation between the consumption of natural spring water
and the lower rate of hospitalization. The author paints these events as a cause and
effect relationship; but, just because these events are related in time does not mean that
they are in a causation relationship. That is, correlation is not the same as causation.
While it may be true that the residents of Saluda are hospitalized less frequently and live
longer, the degree to which can be attributed to the consumption of natural spring
water is unknown. It could be that people move to Saluda after retirement and this is the
reason that the people live longer in Saluda. Moreover, the author suggests that drinking
natural spring water is a wise investment because it contains several minerals necessary
for health, in addition to that it's free of bacteria. This is again a questionable suggestion
due to the lack of supportive information. For instance, how can the author be so certain
that the minerals in the water can be absorbed by the human body? Or that tap water
does not contain the same minerals? All these questions call the validity of the claim into
questions and the author needs to address the concerns before making a suggestion.
In conclusion, the argument is flawed and is therefore unconvincing for the problems
discussed above. In order to make a more solid proposal, the author needs to present
more material, showing that the residents of Saluda are indeed healthier than those of
other cities, and to establish that the natural spring water is the reason. Otherwise, the
conclusion is disputable and open to debate.
582 words. Prep 5 October 13, 2018 at 4:54 PM

Saluda V.S. Gym
The following appeared in a memo to the Saluda town council from the town’s business
manager:
“Research indicates that those who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as
often as those who don’t exercise. By providing a well-equipped gym for Saluda’s
municipal employees, we should be able to reduce the cost of our group health insurance
coverage by approximately 50 percent and thereby achieve a balanced town budget.”
The argument appeared on a memo to Saluda town council suggests that the town
should provide a gym for the employees in order to reduce the cost health insurance
coverage. In order to support this conclusion, the author cites the information from a
research, indicating that people who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than those
who don’t exercise. While the argument has some merits, it suffers from a number of
flaws, ranging from inconclusive evidence to evidence, that would require a reconstruct
before a more reliable proposal could be carried out.
Most conspicuously, the entire argument is based on the assumption that the outcome
of the research is representative of the situation in Saluda; however, no evidence is
provided to support this assumption. While it may be true that people who exercise are
hospitalized less, the author fails to consider the possibilities that the cause might be the
effect. That is, people who are hospitalized less are the ones who have the time to make
a commitment to regular exercise. Furthermore, the author needs to provide more
material to establish that the outcome of the research can indeed be used in Saluda.
Consider, for instance, what if Saluda is a town for retirees? In this case, it would be
unconvincing to conclude that people who work out regularly are hospitalized less than
half as often as people who don’t work out. Hence, in order to strengthen the argument
and protect it from possible criticisms, the author would have to provide more
information to build a stronger ground for the assumption. Otherwise, the argument
would be more a wishful thinking than a substantive evidence.
Additionally, the author states that, by providing a well-equipped gym, the town would
be able to cut the cost of health insurance by 50 percent. The author arrives at the
conclusion by drawing a correlation between the frequencies of hospitalization and the
cost of health insurance coverage. Surely, the cost of insurance of a healthy person costs
less, but it is unknown whether it would reduce as much as 50 percent. The cost of the
health insurance is determined by family history, medical history, occupation and more,
so the author would need to provide concrete proof before ruling out other possibilities.
Moreover, the author claims that the implementation of the gym plan would be able to
reduce cost to the level that the town achieves a balanced budget. By doing so, the
author neglects other costs associating with the plan, such as maintenance cost,
cleaning fee, rent, cost of equipments, and more. Several important factors related to the
cost and benefit of the plan are omitted, and it would be difficult to determine whether
the plan would really allow the town to achieve a balanced budget. All these concerns
call the applicability of the plan into questions.
above. The author fails to mention several important information, on the basis of which
the plan could be evaluated. In order to substantiate the argument, the author should
provide more data regarding the research to prove that the outcome is representative
and can be used in Saluda. Secondly, more information about the cost and benefit of the
gym should be stated. Until then, the argument is vulnerable and open to debate.
555 words. October 15, 2018 at 3:38 PM 

President Leonard
The following letter to the editor appeared in the Coastal Times:
It has become clear that President Leonard needs to be recalled. His approval rating is
down below 50% and the unemployment rate is well above its historical average. While I
agree with his handling of the recent international conflicts, we simply cannot afford such
stagnant economic growth. We must recall President Leonard in order to put our
neighbors back to work!
its conclusion.
The argument published on the Coastal Times suggests that the people should recall
President Leonard in order to put an end on the high unemployment rate. To support
this proposal, the author cites data about the economic. While the argument has some
reasoning, that would need to be reconstructed before a more solid proposal could be
carried out.
Most conspicuously, the author cites data about the approval rate and unemployment
rate without addressing the source of the data. How was the information gathered? Who
conducted the survey? Was the sample representative? Consider, for instance, that if the
approval rate information came from opposite party's office, the validity of the data
would be disputable. Furthermore, the author also needs to clarify the definition of
unemployment before drawing a conclusion that the rate is above the historical average.
Perhaps the country encourages entrepreneurship. If this is the case, it would be unfair
to count these people as unemployed. Moreover, it is also questionable to compare
current employment with historical data. What if the country was communism before?
Hence, the author needs to provide more background information regarding the
approval rate and unemployment rate before building an argument on this basis.
Additionally, the author structures the argument in such a way that it seems like the bad
economic is because of President Leonard. While it may be true that President Leonard
is partially responsible for the economic, it is difficult to determine to what degree is the
President to blame. The author fails to consider several factors that also play important
roles in the economic growth. For example, how long has President been in the office? If
he or she was just elected two weeks ago, it is apparent that the President is not the one
to blame for the bad economic. Also, what was the economy like when the President
Leonard took over? Maybe the situation back then was way worse? Overall, all these
questions call the argument and the evidence into question. Had the author provided a
more detail analysis of the economic indicators before and after President Leonard took
over the office, it would be easier to determine whether the President is accountable for
the situation.
Finally, the author proposes that the country should recall President Leonard. This is
based on a groundless assumption that the next President would do a better job, at least
economic wise. Just because one is not doing a good job doesn not mean the next
person would do better. Moreover, the author just made a claim without providing
supportive evidence, making this claim more of a wishful thinking than a substantiate
argument.
unconvincing. In order to strengthen the argument, the author needs to present extra
material to support the basis of the data, which is also the ground of the entire argument
and to demonstrate the pros and cons of recalling President Leonard with evidence and
facts rather than just an unsupportive claim. Until then, the argument is unsubstantiated
and open to debate.
527 words 20m45s

Ppc Marketing
The following appeared in a report issued by a Marketing Director:
Over the past two years, our website has converted a consistent 3% of its visitors into
sales, with very little fluctuation. Clearly, then, our goal for the upcoming year should be
to raise the number of visitors to our site by any means necessary. If we can double our
number of visitors by casting a wider net on pay-per-click advertising and by creating site
content that is more search-engine friendly, we'll double our sales.
its conclusion.
The proposal issued by a Marketing Director suggests that the company should spend
more budget on pay-per-click advertising and create more search-engine friendly
content in order to boost the sales. In order to support this proposal, the author draws a
positive correlation between the number of people seeing the pay-per-click ads and the
number of paying customers. While the argument has some merits, it suffers from a
number of flaws, ranging from inconclusive evidence to flimsy reasoning, that would
require a reconstruction before a more solid proposal could be carried out.
Most conspicuously, the entire argument is based on a groundless assumption that the
new potential customers brought by the pay-per-click advertising will convert at the
same rate as the current customers; however, no evidence is provided to support this
assumption. While it is possible that 3% of the new customers will turn into paying
customers, without knowing the current advertising platform, it is difficult to determine
whether the converting rate will be consistent. If pay-per-click advertising is the current
main platform, it would be plausible to conclude that approximately 3% of the
customers will convert. However, if the company currently uses TV advertising, influencer
marketing or content marketing, it would be disputable to make such a claim that the
convert rate will be the same. Hence, the author needs to state further information about
the current marketing platform and campaign to establish the similarities between the
old and the new ones before assuming that the converting rate will be the same.
Additionally, the author states that the converting rate has been 3% for the past two
years with little fluctuation. But, this is a confusing statement without real value. Firstly,
the author fails to consider the total number of the website visitors, which is crucial to
the converting rate. What if the number for visitors is 200 two years ago and has gone
up to 20,000 last month? If this is the case, while the converting rate remains the same,
the number of customers has gone up, a lot. Secondly, the author also fails to consider
the amount of the order and the profitability. Again, even if the number of paying
customers remains the same, the revenue and the profit might be different. Therefore,
this statement offer very little value about the number of total visitors and the amount of
the order. Had the author provided a more detailed analysis of the website data for the
past two years, it would be easier to know that whether the profit, revenue and the
number of customers change.
Finally, the author claims that by doubling the number of visitors, the sales will double as
well. This is, again, a questionable claim because of the lack of supportive evidence. Just
because one spend twice as much money does not mean that the sales would double; if
this is the case, the company around the world would just be competing on marketing
budget. Moreover, it is always easier to get a current paying customers to purchase
more than to attract new customers who's unaware of the brand. The marketing director
should consider other methods to increase the average order amount or the frequency
of purchasing before blowing up money on marketing campaigns to attract new visitors.
unconvincing. In order to improve the soundness of this proposal, the author needs to
provide more information regarding the number of current customers and sales and
establish that the new customers will convert as the current ones do. Until then, the
argument is unsubstantiated and open to debate.
614 words. 25m20s

Macdowell’s Ppc
The following appeared in an advertising brochure carried by ChromeChannel
Communication salespeople:
Pay-per-click web advertising is the best investment an advertiser can make. In the
eighteen months since MacDowell's halved its television advertising and doubled its web
advertising, its sales have grown by nearly 30% and it has opened forty more stores to
keep up with demand. This is just one example of the fact that television advertising is on
its way out, and smart businesses will continue to up their investment in pay-per-click
ads.
its conclusion.
The argument appeared in an advertising brochure by ChromeChannel sales suggests

that Pay-per-click web advertising is the best advertising one can make. In order to
support this conclusion, the author cites the budget distribution and sales revenue from
MacDowell's. While the argument has some merits, it suffers a number of flaws, ranging
from inconclusive evidence to hasty generalization, that would need to be reconstructed
before a more solid proposal could be carried out.
Most conspicuously, the entire argument is based on a groundless assumption that the
growing revenue and the expansion of the new stores are solely because of the change
in advertising. Just because these events are related in time does not mean that they are
in a cause and effect relationship. In other words, correlation is different from causation.
While it is possible that the new web advertising contributes to a part of the growing
sales, it is hard to determine whether it is all from the web advertisement. Moreover, the
author states that the MacDowell's have opened forty new stores and the sales have
increased almost 30%. Although the information looks positive, it actually offers no real
value. Consider, for example, what if MacDowell's only had ten stores? Then forty new

stores would be 400% increase. And it would be disputable to say that the sales have
gone up. On the contrary, if MacDowell's had hundreds of stores nationwide, it would be
more convincing to say that the sales have increased. Hence, the author needs to
provide further information to clarify the data about MacDowell's and present more
information to establish the relationship between the new marketing method and the
growing revenue.
Additionally, the author also fails to consider other possible web advertising method
before giving credit to pay-per-click advertising. For example, the new spokesperson,
influencer marketing campaign, social media marketing, or search-engine optimization
are all web advertising. And the author readily assumes that the new budget on web
advertising is going to the pay-per-click advertising without supportive evidence.
Finally, the author commits a fallacy of overgeneralization. Using the fact that web
advertising work for one company, the author assumes that it will also work for various
business. However, it is way too early to draw conclusion. Perhaps, MacDowell's is a
software company, therefore, the TV advertising did not really work for it. If this is the
case, it would be implausible to suggest a more traditional business, such as restaurant,
to use the same marketing method. Had the author provided more details about the
industry and business type of the MacDowell's, the argument would be more believable.
unconvincing. In order to make a stronger argument, the author needs to demonstrate
that the web advertising is indeed the reason for the growing sales revenue and to
establish that business in the similar industry would also benefit from this advertising
method. Until then, the argument is unsubstantiated and open to debate.
504 words. 23 min

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ChaseDream - yuenhsu Page 1 Pretty Little AWA Guide

• Seven Sins - Causality 15

ChaseDream - yuenhsu Page 4 Pretty Little AWA Guide

ChaseDream - yuenhsu Page 5 Pretty Little AWA Guide

ChaseDream - yuenhsu Page 6 Pretty Little AWA Guide

First, the argument readily assumes that......

Second, the argument claims that....

Finally,… (pose some questions for the argument).....Without convincing answers to

In order to assess the merits of a certain situation/decision, it is essential to have full

ChaseDream - yuenhsu Page 8 Pretty Little AWA Guide

Body - Baseless Assumption

Body - False Analogy

ChaseDream - yuenhsu Page 11 Pretty Little AWA Guide

Definition - Useful For Discussing Drugs Or Something

Ignore The Timing -

Profit = Revenue - Cost

ChaseDream - yuenhsu Page 12 Pretty Little AWA Guide

All Things Are Equal

ChaseDream - yuenhsu Page 13 Pretty Little AWA Guide

ChaseDream - yuenhsu Page 14 Pretty Little AWA Guide

False Cause Fallacy

• Seven Sins - Causality

ChaseDream - yuenhsu Page 15 Pretty Little AWA Guide

Additional Support Furthermore, in Addition, Similarly, Just As, Also, as a Result,

ChaseDream - yuenhsu Page 16 Pretty Little AWA Guide

Exercise, Operation, Utilization

Verb for Author. (Author ____ That)

ChaseDream - yuenhsu Page 17 Pretty Little AWA Guide

Real Good Real Baaaaaad

ChaseDream - yuenhsu Page 18 Pretty Little AWA Guide

ChaseDream - yuenhsu Page 20 Pretty Little AWA Guide

ChaseDream - yuenhsu Page 22 Pretty Little AWA Guide

398 words 9/18

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384 words. 9/18

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385 words 9/18

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345 words 9/19

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404 words 9/19/18

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In conclusion, the argument is flawed and is therefore unconvincing. In order to improve

351 words. 9/19/18

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349 words. 9/20

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“On average, middle-aged consumers devote 39 percent of their retail expenditure to

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In conclusion, he argument is neither compelling nor persuasive. Because the author's

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535 words… damn girl.

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Most conspicuously, the argument could be biased since it is published on the

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Pretty little AWA Guide 

398 words 9/18 

384 words. 9/18 

385 words 9/18 

345 words 9/19 

349 words. 9/20 

535 words… damn girl.  

346 words. 9/23 

416 words. 23 minutes. Manhattan 2 AWA 

510 words. 30 minutes 

474 words. 22:11~22:36 Friday, October 5, 2018 

451 words. Monday, October 8, 2018 

555 words. October 15, 2018 at 3:38 PM 