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GMI Presentation July 2011
GMI Presentation July 2011
GMI Presentation July 2011
Evy Hambro, Joint Chief Investment Officer Catherine Raw, Portfolio Manager
Disclaimer
1. Issued by Global Mining Investments Limited, ABN 31 107 772 467, (GMI) in conjunction with BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited (BlackRock), authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Registered office: 33 King William Street, London, EC4R 9AS. Tel: 020 7743 3000. Registered in England No. 2020394. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. You may not get back the amount originally invested. Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to diminish or increase. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time. GMI has made every effort to ensure the accuracy and currency of the information contained in this document. However, no warranty is made as to the accuracy or reliability of the information. The presentation does not take into account a reader's investment objectives, particular needs or financial situation. It is general information only and should not be considered as investment advice and should not be relied on as an investment recommendation. Before acting on any information, you should consider the appropriateness of it and the relevant product having regard to your investment objectives, particular needs and financial situation . In particular, you should seek independent financial advice and read offer document prior to acquiring a financial product. To the maximum extent permitted by law, none of GMI and its directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents. Any research in this document has been procured and may have been acted on by GMI and BlackRock for their own purpose. The results of such research are being made available only incidentally. The views expressed do not constitute investment or any other advice and are subject to change. They do not necessarily reflect the views of GMI or any company in the BlackRock Group or any part thereof and no assurances are made as to their accuracy. GMI may invest in emerging markets which are typically those of poorer or less developed countries. The prospects for economic growth in a number of these markets are considerable and equity returns have the potential to exceed those in mature markets as growth is achieved. However, there are risks to the Company from political, economic and market factors in emerging markets which are of particular significance. These include the possibility of various forms of punitive or confiscatory government intervention, reduced levels of regulation, higher brokerage and transaction commissions, less reliable settlement and custody practices, loss of registration of securities, lower market liquidity, higher market volatility (causing substantial increase in price and currency risks) and less reliable financial reporting. GMI does not hold physical gold or other metals. Investors should be aware of the above-average volatility inherent in mining shares and the low correlation between this sector and equity markets as a whole. Shares in smaller companies can be more volatile and less liquid than those of larger companies. When a portfolio of high yielding bonds is held, there is an increased risk of capital erosion through default or if the redemption yield is below the income yield. Economic conditions and interest rate levels may impact significantly the values of high yield bonds. Where a Company has a particularly concentrated portfolio and a particular investment declines or is otherwise adversely affected, it may have a more pronounced effect than if the Company held a larger number of investments. Subject to the express requirements of any client-specific investment management agreement or provisions relating to the management of a fund, we will not provide notice of any changes to our personnel, structure, policies, process, objectives or, without limitation, any other matter contained in this document. Unless otherwise specified, all information contained in this document is current as at 31 May 2011.
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Sources: Angus Maddison, University of Groningen; The Economist for years 1-1970; IMF World Economic Outlook for 2008-2010
Performance of mining sector versus general equities year-to-date 1. 2. 3. 4. Concerns over Chinese economy slowing Japanese earthquake Sovereign debt issues re-surface Market fears over US economy as QE3 appears less likely
Source: DataStream to 1st July 2011 HSBC Global Mining Index used as representative of mining sector
Demand-side dynamics
2009 regional breakdown of global commodity demand Copper Demand
Supply-side dynamics
Supply constrained by: Average mined grades falling Infrastructure challenges Discovery rates falling Shortage of skilled labour Long lead times on equipment Geopolitical challenges Challenges to forecast bulk commodity production: Growth constrained by congestion on roads, rail and at ports
Coal prices
Coking Coal Pricing Thermal Coal Pricing
BHP Billiton have departed from annual benchmark for coking coal moving to quarterly in 2010. Now offering monthly pricing High quality seaborne product sufficiently differentiated from low quality Chinese supply Early settlement of thermal coal contracts shows potential of bulk producers to exert pricing power
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Iron ore
Iron ore pricing Supply curve to Chinese market for iron ore fines
This appears to be a permanent change though the exact mechanism for pricing is still evolving
Provides greater level of pricing transparency Directly references spot price driven by high cost Chinese and Indian production Marginal costs of production for iron ore have increased by over $20 to $149/t 11
60%
1.03%
80%
2009
2025E
2009
2025E
2009
2025E
With a forecast deficit of 500kt in 2011, there is a high risk of supply side shocks in the short term In the long term these will clearly impact the ability of the copper market to significantly increase supply to meet the forecast growth in demand 12
Zinc
20 200 150 100 50 0
400
Usc/lb
200 100
10 5 0
Mar-98
Mar-08
Mar-92
Mar-94
Mar-96
Mar-02
Mar-04
Mar-06
Mar-90
Mar-00
Mar-10
Mar-96
Mar-98
Mar-06
Mar-90
Mar-08
Mar-92
Mar-00
Aluminium
20 150
Nickel
2500
15 10 5 0
20 15 10 5 0
Mar-10
Mar-94
Mar-04
Mar-02
Usc/lb
50
Mar-90
Mar-96
Mar-98
Mar-06
Mar-08
Mar-92
Mar-00
Mar-10
Mar-90
Mar-96
Mar-98
Mar-04
Mar-92
Mar-06
Mar-00
Mar-08
Mar-94
Mar-02
Mar-04
Mar-94
Mar-02
Mar-10
Usc/lb
100
Usc/lb
300
15
13
50,000
US$(m)
-50,000
-100,000
-150,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Net Cash 2010e 2011e 2012e
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Diversified companies have been trading in a lower PE range than during the last cycle (92-02) Mining stocks trading at a discount compared to historic levels
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Corporate Events
Mining sector financial strength has returned
Dividends resumed or increased
Gold companies initiating and/or increasing dividends Dividends re-instated and increased across the mining sector Recent examples: BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Xstrata, Anglo American, Teck Resources, OZ Minerals Special dividends announced by Freeport, Vale and Antofagasta
2010 a record year for M&A, 2011 looks set to follow suit
In 2010, 186 deals worth US$134 billion that were either completed or live at the end of the year Top sectors for M&A: gold, coal and iron ore So far in 2011: Rio Tinto successful in its US$4bn bid for Riversdale BHP Billiton buys shale gas assets from Chesapeake Energy for US$4.75bn Equinox announces a US$4.9bn hostile bid for Lundin Mining Minmetals Resources announce U$6.3bn hostile bid for Equinox Barrick announces US$7.6bn friendly takeover for Equinox
Share buybacks
Vale announced and completed US$2 billion buyback between September and November 2010 BHP Billiton announced US$10 billion buyback Rio Tinto announced a $5 billion buyback
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1m -0.7% -2.6%
3m -3.2% -6.1%
1 Yr 17.9% 7.3%
Source: Internal. As at end May 2011. Returns for longer than one year are annualised. Launch date 6 April 2004.
Annual Performance
17
400
Indexed to 100
300
200
100
0 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11
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Number of Holdings: 78
Source: Internal, as at end May 2011
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Q&A
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Appendix
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Agriculture
Desmond Cheung Richard Davis Piers Holden
BlackRock Offices worldwide 250+ equity analysts, 300+ fixed income analysts
As at June 2011. *New senior portfolio manager to join Mining and Gold sector in August 2011
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