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Bas430 FPD 3 2021 2 PDF
Bas430 FPD 3 2021 2 PDF
o An introduction
o Absolute dominance
o First order dominance and utility theory
o Second-order dominance and utility theory
o Key findings in behavioral finance.
𝒙 𝟎 𝟏 𝟐
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) 1 2 1
4 4 4
Note that random variables are classified into
discrete and continuous
Definition: Discrete Random Variable
If the set of all possible values of a random variable
X is a countable set, say 𝑥1 , 𝑥2 , 𝑥3 , … , 𝑥𝑛 , then X is a
discrete random variable
The function written as
𝑓 𝑥 =𝑃 𝑋=𝑥 , 𝑥 = 𝑥1 , 𝑥2 , 𝑥3 , …
is called the probability mass function (p.m.f) or
probability function of X
A function 𝑓(𝑥) is a probability function if
𝑓 𝑥𝑖 ≥ 0, 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑥𝑖
𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑥𝑖 𝑓 𝑥𝑖 = 1
Example 1
Toss a coin two times. Let X be the number of heads
obtained. Find the probability function of X.
Solution
𝑆 = 𝑇𝑇, 𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝐻
𝑋 = 0,1,2
y 0 1 2 3 4
f(y) 0 C 4C 9C 16C
Solution Con’t
𝑓(𝑦) = 1
𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑦
0 + 𝐶 + 4𝐶 + 9𝐶 + 16𝐶 = 1
30𝐶 = 1
1
𝐶=
30
Example 3
The probability function of a discrete random
variable X is given by
𝑥
3
𝑃 𝑋=𝑥 =a , for 𝑥 = 0,1,2,3, …
4
Find the value of the constant a
Solution
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = 1
𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑥
3 1 3 2 3 3
𝑎+𝑎 4
+𝑎 4
+𝑎 4
+⋯=1
𝑎
=1
1 − 34
𝑎 1
=1 ⇒𝑎=
1 4 4
Definition: Cumulative Distribution Function
The cumulative distribution function (cdf) of a
random variable X is defined as
𝐹 𝑥 = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥)
Theorem
A function 𝐹 𝑥 is a cumulative distribution function
(cdf) for some random variable X if it satisfies the
following conditions
Condition 1
lim 𝐹 𝑥 = 0
𝑥→−∞
Condition 2
lim 𝐹 𝑥 = 1
𝑥→∞
Condition 3: F(x) is right continuous
lim+ 𝐹 𝑥 + ℎ = 𝐹(𝑥)
ℎ→0
x 1 2 3 4 5 6
F(x) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.95 0.1
or
Solution
0, 𝑥<1
0.1, 1≤𝑥<2
0.2, 2≤𝑥<3
𝐹 𝑥 = 0.4, 3≤𝑥<4
0.8, 4≤𝑥<5
0.95, 5≤𝑥<6
1, 𝑥≥6
or
𝐹 𝑥 = 𝑓 𝑡 𝑑𝑡 = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑥)
−∞
Note
If X is a continuous random variable with p.d.f 𝑓(𝑥)
𝑑
and c.d.f. 𝐹 𝑥 , then 𝑓 𝑥 = 𝐹(𝑥)
𝑑𝑥
Example
A continuous random variable has p.d.f.
𝑓 𝑥 = 𝑘𝑥 2 , −1 < 𝑥 < 2
Find
a) The value of the constant k
b) The c.d.f of X
c) 𝑃(0 < 𝑋 ≤ 1)
Solution
a) 𝑓 𝑥 𝑑𝑥 = 1, for all values of x
2 2 𝑑𝑥 = 1
−1
𝑘𝑥
𝑘𝑥 3 2
⇒ =1
3 −1
𝑘
⇒ 8 − (−1) =1
3
𝑘
⇒ 9 =1
3
⇒ 3𝑘 = 1
1
⇒𝑘=
3
Solution
𝑥
b) 𝐹 𝑥 = −∞
𝑓(𝑡) 𝑑𝑡
2 1 2 𝑑𝑡
= −1 3
𝑡
1 𝑡3 𝑥
=
3 3 −1
1
= 𝑥 3 − −1 3
9
1
= 𝑥3 + 1
9
Solution
b) Continues
0, 𝑥 ≤ −1
𝑥3 + 1
𝐹 𝑥 = , −1 < 𝑥 ≤ 2
9
1, 𝑥>2
Solution
c) 𝑃 0 < 𝑋 ≤ 1 = 𝐹 1 − 𝐹 0
1+1 0+1
= −
9 9
2 1
= −
9 9
1
=
9
Solution
c) Continues
or
11 3
𝑃 0<𝑋≤1 = 0 3
𝑥 𝑑𝑥
𝑥3 1
=
3 0
1
= −0
9
1
=
9
TASK
A continuous random variable X has pdf
𝑘𝑥, 0<𝑥<1
𝑓 𝑥 = 𝑘 2 − 𝑥 ,1 ≤ 𝑥 < 2
0 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑒𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒
Find
a) The value of the constant k
b) The c.d.f of X
c) 𝑃(1 2 < 𝑋 < 1)
d) 𝑃(0 < 𝑋 < 3 2)
Solution
a) 𝑓 𝑥 𝑑𝑥 = 1, 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑥
1 2
⇒ 0
𝑘𝑥𝑑𝑥 + 1
𝑘(2 − 𝑥)𝑑𝑥 = 1
𝑘𝑥 2 1 𝑥2 2
⇒ +𝑘 2𝑥 − =1
2 0 2 1
𝑘 1
⇒ +𝑘 4−2 − 2− =1
2 2
𝑘 𝑘
⇒ + =1
2 2
⇒𝑘=1
Solution
𝑥
b) 𝐹 𝑥 = −∞
𝑓 𝑡 𝑑𝑡
𝑥 𝑘𝑡 2 𝑥
⇒ 𝐹1 𝑥 = 𝑘𝑡 𝑑𝑡 = , 𝑏𝑢𝑡 𝑘 = 1
0 2 0
𝑡2 𝑥 𝑥2
= = ,0 < 𝑥 < 1
2 0 2
𝑥
𝐹2 𝑥 = 𝐹1 1 + 1 (2 − 𝑡) 𝑑𝑡
1 𝑡2 𝑥 𝑥2
= + 2𝑡 − = 2𝑥 − − 1, 1≤𝑥<2
2 2 1 2
Solution
b) Continues
0, 𝑥≤0
𝑥2
, 0<𝑥<1
𝐹 𝑥 = 2
𝑥2
2𝑥 − − 1, 1≤𝑥<2
2
1, 𝑥≥2
Solution
1 1
c) 𝑃 2 <𝑋 <1 =𝐹 1 −𝐹
2
3 3
d) 𝑃 0 < 𝑋 < =𝐹 −𝐹 0
2 2
In the case of two variables or joint distributions, the
c.d.f of X and Y is given by
F(𝑥, 𝑦) = 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 𝑥, 𝑌 ≤ 𝑦 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑎𝑙𝑙 (𝑥, 𝑦) ∈ ℝ2
Properties
i. F is non-decreasing in x for fixed y
ii. F is non-decreasing in y for fixed x
iii. lim 𝐹 𝑥, 𝑦 = lim 𝐹 𝑥, 𝑦 = 0
𝑥→−∞ 𝑦→−∞
iv. lim 𝐹 𝑥, 𝑦 = 1
(𝑥,𝑦)→(∞,∞)
Definition: Marginal c.d.f
The marginal c.d.f of X is given by
𝐹𝑋 𝑥 = 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 𝑥 = lim 𝐹 𝑥, 𝑦 , 𝑥∈ℝ
𝑦→∞
Similarly,
The marginal c.d.f of Y is given by
𝐹𝑌 𝑦 = 𝑃 𝑌 ≤ 𝑦 = lim 𝐹 𝑥, 𝑦 , 𝑦∈ℝ
𝑥→∞
Definition: Joint p.d.f of discrete random Variables
If X and Y are discrete random variables, then the joint
probability function of X and Y is given by
𝑓 𝑥, 𝑦 = 𝑃 𝑋 = 𝑥, 𝑌 = 𝑦 , (𝑥, 𝑦) ∈ ℝ2
Properties
i. 𝑓 𝑥, 𝑦 ≥ 0, for (𝑥, 𝑦) ∈ ℝ2
ii. 𝑓 𝑥, 𝑦 = 1, for all (𝑥, 𝑦) ∈ ℝ2
Definition: Joint p.d.f of continuous random Variables
If X and Y are discrete random variables, then the joint
probability function of X and Y is given by
𝑓 𝑥, 𝑦 = 𝑃 𝑋 = 𝑥, 𝑌 = 𝑦 , (𝑥, 𝑦) ∈ ℝ2
Properties
i. 𝑓 𝑥, 𝑦 ≥ 0, for (𝑥, 𝑦) ∈ ℝ2
𝐹 𝑥 = 𝑓 𝑡 𝑑𝑡
−∞
The cumulative probability function for a discrete
distribution denoted by F(x) is given by
𝐹 𝑥 =𝑃 𝑋≤𝑥 = 𝑃(𝑥)
𝑋≤𝑥
The cumulative probability function for a continuous
random variable denoted by F(x) is given by
𝐹 𝑥 = 𝑓 𝑡 𝑑𝑡
−∞
In portfolio theorem, let A and B be two different
portfolios. The FSD states that assuming an investor
prefers more to less, A will dominate B (i.e. the
investor will prefer Portfolio A to Portfolio B) if:
𝐹𝐴 (𝑥) ≤ 𝐹𝐵 (𝑥), for all values of x, and
𝐹𝐴 𝑥 < 𝐹𝐵 (𝑥), for some values of x
This means that the probability of Portfolio B
producing a return below a certain value is never
less than the probability of Portfolio A producing a
return below the same value and exceeds it for at
least some value of x
Using measures of central tendency and dispersion,
we are saying that if two normal distributions have
the same variance but different means, the one
with the higher mean displays first-order stochastic
dominance over the other
Graphically, if A is first-order stochastically dominant
over B and that A and B are discrete, then we show
the following
𝐹𝐵 (𝑥)
𝐹𝐴 (𝑥)
Graphically, if A is first-order stochastically dominant
over B and that A and B are continuous, then we
show the following
Consider two assets, A and B with the following
respective returns in different outcomes, “good” of
“poor” investment outcomes
Asset A Asset B
Good Outcome 6% 10%
Poor Outcome 5% 8%
It is clear that
𝐹𝐵 (𝑥) ≤ 𝐹𝐴 (𝑥), for all values of x, and
𝐹𝐵 𝑥 < 𝐹𝐴 (𝑥), for some values of x
Hence, asset B first-order state dominate asset A
An investor should choose asset B
Graphically, Asset B is first-order stochastically
dominant over B and thus the graph for asset B will
lie below that of asset A as seen below
𝐹𝐴 (𝑥)
𝐹𝐵 (𝑥)
Task
Consider two risky assets A and B. A yields ZMW1 with
probability 1 4 and ZMW2 with probability 3 4 . B
yields ZMW1 with probability 1 2 and ZMW2 with
probability 1 2.
a) Which asset should the investor choose?
b) What would you say about asset C, which yields
ZMW1 with probability 1 4 and ZMW3 with
probability 3 4?
Solution
Probability c.d.f
Return A B C A B C
ZMW1 1 4 1 2 1 4 1 4 1 2 1 4
ZMW2 3 4 1 2 0 1 1 1 4
ZMW3 0 0 3 4 1 1 1
Note that,
FSD is transitive
Hence, 𝐶 > 𝐴 > 𝐵
FSD is just a necessary condition for choice but not a
sufficient condition
Definition: SSD for Discrete Random Assets
Let A and B be two assets. Then A is said to be
second order stochastically dominant over B if
a) 𝐹𝐴 (𝑦) ≤ 𝐹𝐵 (𝑦) , for all values of x
b) 𝐹𝐴 (𝑦) < 𝐹𝐵 (𝑦) , for for some values of x
Definition: SSD for continuous Random Assets
Let A and B be two assets. Then A is said to be
second order stochastically dominant over B if
𝑥 𝑥
a) 𝐹
𝑎 𝐴
𝑦 𝑑𝑦 ≤ 𝐹
𝑎 𝐵
𝑦 𝑑𝑦 , for all values of x
𝑥 𝑥
b) 𝐹
𝑎 𝐴
𝑦 𝑑𝑦 < 𝐹
𝑎 𝐵
𝑦 𝑑𝑦 , for for some values of x