2023 ELECTION SECURITY THREAT ASSESSMENT

For immediate release

On 08.02.2023
Abuja

2023 Election Violence Geography

Violence Peaceful

Likelihood of Violence

Peaceful Likelihood Violence

3 States of Violence 13 States 21 States

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Distinguished members of the press. It is my pleasure to welcome you to this press conference
on the assessment of the security threats to the forthcoming general elections in Nigeria. CLEEN
Foundation which has been committed to the promotion of safety and security, human rights and
access to justice in Nigeria consider it important to disseminate to the public through you some
of its findings on the security threats to the elections. CLEEN commissioned researchers across
the six geopolitical zones to examine the security situation in relation to the elections and make
recommendations for the successful conduct of the elections. Some of the recommendations are
critical towards minimizing the security threats for a more credible and violence-free elections.

Context
The frequent serious attacks on security agencies, installations and infrastructure in recent
months are highly worrisome and condemnable. The pattern of recent attacks on security
facilities and INEC infrastructure is suggestive that they are facilitated by criminals who are bent
on pushing the country off the cliff. The law enforcement agencies need to take measures to
prevent further attacks to boost the confidence of voters before, during and after the general
elections. It is important to note that as recorded by INEC the recent voter registration has
recorded the largest number of voters registered in the history of our elections and we are afraid
that resources might be wasted if the criminal attacks, threats and intimidation through violence
and hate speeches lead to voter apathy. We are aware that this is the first time that INEC is
enhancing the significant introduction of technology into the elections, and this comes with its
own challenges. Surveillance and intelligence gathering are some of the sophisticated methods
that law enforcement authorities must continue to sustain to tackle security challenges before,
during and after the general elections. The threats to the elections need must be addressed to
counter all attempts at undermining the country’s effort towards consolidating democratic
governance.

CLEEN Foundation is worried over the unhealthy and divisive verbal attacks, hate speeches and
criminal attacks on police, INEC offices, which if not firmly addressed may pose serious
challenges to the elections, peaceful-coexistence and the unity of our beloved nation. From the
northernmost point of the country, to the southernmost tip, across the wide expanse of the east-
west sweep, Nigeria is experiencing challenges of security, poverty, homelessness, joblessness
and, some may even say, hopelessness. Ordinarily, political conversations and electoral
campaigns should focus on the solution to these challenges.

Methodology
CLEEN Foundation commissioned studies across the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria to map
out key electoral risk factors peculiar to each geopolitical zones using the Election Violence
Mitigation Tool (EVMT) of the Electoral Institute of INEC developed to track electoral risk
factors with the potential of impacting negatively on the peaceful conduct of elections in Nigeria.
The findings were complemented by secondary sources of information on public safety and

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security of the citizens, election related violence across the country and attacks on INEC and
security facilities.

Analysis of the Nature and Trend of Threats to the 2023 General Elections
This section highlights some of the key findings of the study. It leverages information from other
secondary sources to give further insights on the findings. The study identified the following
public perceptions as well as factors most likely to cause electoral violence during the 2023
general elections in Nigeria:

1. Expectation of Peaceful elections:

Generally, majority of Nigerians expect the elections to be peaceful despite many of the
states having a history of electoral violence. The build up to the 2023 general election has
been characterized by several factors that generated so much positive interest as well as
increased tension in the polity. On the positive side, the signing of the electoral Act 2022
into law that enabled INEC to introduce the of Bimodal Voter Accreditation System
(BVAS) has generated a lot of public interest especially among the youths who turned out
to register in large numbers to participate in Nigeria's forthcoming elections. The
motivation for the youth seems to be their faith in technology and the promise of
transmission of election results from the polling units to the INEC Result viewing (IReV)
portal. These measures seem to have boosted citizens’ trust and confidence that the
elections will be transparent and the belief that the votes will count towards determining
the winner of the election.

2. Weaponization of Poverty: There is the fear that politicians will exploit the high rate of
poverty in the country to secure votes. The majority of the respondents believe that the
2023 general elections will be determined by the party with the highest financial power to
buy votes on election day. The respondents’ fear over the use of money is informed by
the actions demonstrated during the primaries of the political parties in when delegates
were allegedly induced with payments in foreign currencies.

3. Vote-trading in past election

Vote buying has become a recurring problem in Nigerian elections. Political parties, in
some cases and many places, induce voters with money and other material items during
elections.1 For instance, during the 2021 gubernatorial elections in Anambra, Ekiti, and
Osun States, it was alleged that the three leading political parties lured voters with
N6,000 and N10,000 to vote for their candidates. The increasing rate of poverty in the
country would predispose more voters to sell their votes in the coming election. As
shown in Figure 1 majority of the respondents, about 47.18% believed that vote-buying

1
Onuoha, F. C. & Okafor, J. C., (2020). Democracy or moneyocracy? Perspective on vote buying and electoral
integrity in Nigeria’s recent elections”, Africa Insight, (2020), Vol. 49, No.4, pp. 1-14,
https://www.ajol.info/index.php/ai/article/view/202416

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 would have a high impact on election security, 24.65% opined that the impact would be
moderate while 7.75% were of the view that the impact would be low.

Fig. 1: Vote-buying in past election

4. Effect of difficult geographical terrain on election management

There are certain locations across the country with very difficult geographical terrain that
would impact negatively on election management. In Anambra State, for instance,
riverine locations like Anambra East and West LGAs may be difficult to access by
election stakeholders and would serve as flash-points for violence during the elections.
Similarly, perceptions from the South South region of the country also suggests that
riverine areas/communities can pose a threat to the smooth conduct of the elections
considering the safety of creeks and waterways where elections will be conducted. There
are also border communities and communities under the influence of bandits in northern
Nigeria that we are worried for due to accessibility and insecurity.

5. Political Thuggery: Majority of Nigerians perceive the activities of political thugs as

recipe for violence during the 2023 general elections. The formation of foot soldiers/army
by political parties is an ugly development that needs to be checkmated by the security
agencies to avert violence that could impede voter turnout thereby affecting the
credibility of the elections and may induce voter apathy which is capable of impacting on
the election day.

6. Poor knowledge of the content of the 2022 Electoral Act: there seems to be to be a
perception of indaequate knowledge of the electoral act. The inadequate knowledge of
the Electoral Act among the public and to some extent by some of the various
stakeholders on the election will most likely cause election violence. There is no
intensive sensitisation on the roles of Voters, Party Agents, Security agents, Media, Civil
Society Organizations and INEC on the election day.

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 7. Failure of BVAS Machine: A key factor identified as capable of triggering violence is
either the failure or attempts to temper with the Bi-Modal Verification and Accreditation
machine which will hinder smooth conduct of elections at the polling unit. Majority of
the people were of the opinion that BVAS failure/malfunctioning is an easy trigger for
violence. Data shows that over 70% of respondents perceived that the failure of BVAS
machine may cause/lead to a likely cause of election violence.

8. Lack of Transparency in the Election Results: The study finds that any lack of
transparency in the elections, accreditation, voting and declaration of results either at the
polling units or other stages may lead to violence. Majority of the respondents seem to
believe that most citizens know little about the INEC Results Viewing Portal (IReV) that
enhances the transparency of the elections.

9. Misinformation/Disinformation by Social Media: The rate of misinformation and

disinformation on social media is very high especially among the youths. This is made
worse by the re-echoing of the attacks by political opponents, misrepresentations of facts,
ethnic profiling, demonization of persons, distortions, misinformation, disinformation and
hate speeches. These pose threats to the peaceful conduct of the elections. The
dissemination of fake news, deliberate distortions and hate speeches may trigger violence
before, during and after the elections.

10. Access to Unsecured Polling Units: The dearth of security personnel to provide security
at all the polling units across the country is a source of concern. Some of the polling units
are situated in difficult terrains, characterized by high level of insecurity either from the
numerous bandit gangs or their terrorist/insurgent supporters. This portends a threat to
electoral materials, ad-hoc staff as well as the entire election management bodies. More
so, as some of the bandits and their terrorist collaborators are opposed to elections.

11. Abduction of Electoral Officials and Voters: There is the fear that some desperate
politicians, bad elements and bandits may attempt to abduct electoral officials either to
undermine the elections or for criminal gains. Election officials could be seen as high-
value targets for bargain with politicians/parties or government. Party officials and
candidates may be targeted by kidnappers as they are expected to return home from their
various places of work and business to cast their votes.

12. Snatching of Election Material: The snatching of both sensitive and non-sensitive
election materials in previous elections has been identified as a factor that may trigger
election violence. Attempt by voters to resist thugs or desperate politicians could result in
violence which may affect the fortunes of other parties/candidates leading to post-

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 election litigation and undermining the credibility of the elections. Some of the voters
may protest attempts to disenfranchise them through the snatching of sensitive and non-
sensitive election materials. The risks associated with this crime is against the backdrop
of the incidents of banditry, terrorism, criminal youth gangs, cults and political thuggery
across the country.

13. Hate/Inciting Speech: Since the commencement of electioneering campaigns, there has
been increasing hate and inciting speech, by some political parties. These have featured
during town hall meetings, at campaign rallies, as well as on the conventional and social
media. Such unguarded outbursts by politicians can heat up the polity, incite violence and
jeopardize the peaceful conduct of the elections. Campaign rallies are deviating from
enlightening the voters on party manifestos and intentions into avenues for attacks,
character assassination and accusations.

14. Proliferation of Small Arms and Light Weapons: Given the security challenges in the
country, there is the threat for violence during the elections as there is proliferation of
small arms and light weapons. The porous borders, inadequate security personnel and
increasing rate of rural criminality have created unfettered access to unlawful arms and
ammunition in all regions. These weapons are visibly seen in most of the conflict-prone
areas. There is every tendency that assault rifles, Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) as
well as home-made weapons: guns, daggers, bows and arrows, swords, knives, cutlasses,
etc. could be used to intimidate voters. Already, as pointed out by experts, political
campaigns and rallies are often attended by thugs, wielding deadly locally made but
sophisticated weapons.

15. Activities of State and Non-State Security Actors: Militarization of the election
environment could cause fear, anxiety and even intimidation of voters that are already
terrorized by non-state armed groups. Moreover, most states across the country have
recruited and are still recruiting local vigilantes, a move some experts view as mechanism for
the intimidation of opposition party members. Thus, the list of the potential risk factors as
mentioned by experts in both the qualitative and quantitative parts of the research are
numerous, but not limited to the following; youth and political thuggery, vote buying, the
role of informants, politicians-bandits collaboration and access to illicit drugs.

Other risk factors identified include; Intra party conflicts, Partiality and corruption of
agencies – security, judiciary and INEC officials, Availability and use of hard drugs, Violent
campaigns: Denial of campaign venues and destruction of billboards and posters.

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Recommendations
To mitigate possible violence will require a nuanced understanding of the politics in Nigeria and
respond to some of the key concerns of the people. In line with the foregoing, recommendations
that would improve the credibility of elections in Nigeria include:

For Federal and State Governments

• The federal and state governments should provide a level playing ground to all political
parties and contestants by ensuring that state resources are not deployed in ways that
provide undue advantage to a particular candidate(s).

• The federal and state governments should provide favourable environment for the media,
CSO’s and election observers to perform their duties without fear or favour during the
elections.
For INEC:

• Should demonstrate independence and impartiality in all phases of the election by

ensuring that technology-driven electoral devices such as the Bimodal Voter Registration
System (BVAS) and the Election Result Viewing Portal (IReV) are adequately deployed
to enhance the credibility of the electoral process.

• Strict compliance to Section 95 (1-2) of the Electoral Act which forbids the use of
political campaign slogan tainted with abusive language directly or indirectly, likely to
conjure religious, ethnic, tribal or sectional feeling and the use of abusive, intemperate,
slanderous or base language or insinuations or innuendos designed or likely to provoke
violent reactions or emotions in political campaigns.
• We urge religious leaders to abide by the provision of Subsection 3 of the Act which
emphasized that “Places designated for religious worship, police stations and public
places shall not be used for political campaigns, rallies and processions or to promote,
propagate or attack properties, candidates or their programs or ideologies.”
• INEC should strengthen the capacity of the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on
Election Security to enhance electoral security at sub-national levels.
• Transparency at all levels by granting the media, CSOs and general public all the
necessary information required at every point in time about the electoral process.

• Needs to ensure adequate measures are put in place to avoid logistical hitches that would
undermine the credibility of the elections. To this end, sensitive materials must be
properly deployed and protected from unauthorized access. It should collaborate with
stakeholders to make special arrangements to deploy materials to hard-to-reach areas
with difficult topography.

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 • Should partner with security agencies to design and deliver detailed capacity building on
Hostile Environment Awareness Training (HEAT). The HEAT course will prepare
participants – permanent staff, ad-hoc staff, and vendors, etc – to better understand and
react to safety and security incidents in hostile environments.

• The electoral Commission should ensure that all registered voters collect their PVCs so
as to ensure free, fair and credible elections

For State Security Agencies:

• Security units should be strengthened at the INEC offices and polling units through well-
coordinated of security personnel.

• Should conduct effective joint operations to disrupt activities of groups that seek to
undermine the conduct of credible election. The importance of reliable and actionable
intelligence in this direction cannot be over-emphasised.
• Should evolve a robust strategic communication posture to counter violent incentives and
narratives.

• Should endeavour to be professional and transparent in their engagement with all

stakeholders during the elections. Security agencies should provide equal protection and
level playing ground to all contestants and voters alike to ensure that no one is unduly
harassed and suppressed. Names of security personnel deployed for election duty should
be visibly displayed on their uniform.

For Political parties:

• Political parties and their candidates should not just sign and commit to a peace accord
but comply with its spirit and the letters.

• Political parties should encourage their candidates and supporters to shun hate speech
during their campaigns.

• Agents of political parties deployed for election duties must be adequately trained on how
to avoid electoral offenses and equally be personally responsible for their actions during
the elections.

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For Media and CSOs:

• We call on the media in the spirit of Section 102 of the Act, to shun any “candidate or
person or association who engages in campaigning or broadcasting based on religious,
tribal or sectional reason for the purpose of promoting, opposing a particular political
party or the election of a particular candidate.”
• We encourage the media to: avoid publishing or airing political adverts, advertorials and
sponsored political news that seek to create hatred or incite violence; reject any material
intended for publication or airing by parties, candidates and other interests that contains
hateful or inciting words and messages; refrain from publishing or airing abusive editorial
comments or opinions that denigrate individuals or groups on account of disability, race,
ethnicity, tribe, gender or belief.
• The media should abstain from spreading fake news, misinformation and disinformation
in all phases of the election. All information must be verified and fact-checked before
posting

• CSOs should deepen engagement with the public by participating in the exercise of voter
education, campaigning for non-violence and advocating for an increased voter turnout.

For the Citizens

CLEEN Foundation is encouraging Nigerians to conduct themselves in line with the law and
come out to exercise their civic duty without bias.

Signed:

Gad Peter
Executive Director
CLEEN Foundation

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