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Structure and Infrastructure Engineering:

Maintenance, Management, Life-Cycle Design and
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Reliability assessment of innovative designs in

automotive industry
a a a b
Guillaume Morin , Jean-Marc Cardona , Olivier Prince , Maurice Pendola & Frederic
b
Perrin
a
Renault SAS, Powertrain Engineering Division , 67 rue des Bons Raisins, F92508, Rueil-
Malmaison Cedex, France
b
Phimeca Engineering SA , 1 allée Alan Turing, F63170, Aubière, France
Published online: 09 Jun 2009.

To cite this article: Guillaume Morin , Jean-Marc Cardona , Olivier Prince , Maurice Pendola & Frederic Perrin (2009)
Reliability assessment of innovative designs in automotive industry, Structure and Infrastructure Engineering: Maintenance,
Management, Life-Cycle Design and Performance, 5:5, 367-379, DOI: 10.1080/15732470701388736

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 Structure and Infrastructure Engineering
Vol. 5, No. 5, October 2009, 367–379

Reliability assessment of innovative designs in automotive industry

Guillaume Morina*, Jean-Marc Cardonaa, Olivier Princea, Maurice Pendolab and Frederic Perrinb
a
Renault SAS, Powertrain Engineering Division, 67 rue des Bons Raisins, F92508, Rueil-Malmaison Cedex, France; bPhimeca
Engineering SA, 1 alle´e Alan Turing, F63170, Aubie`re, France
(Received 1 June 2006; final version received 4 April 2007)

Car manufacturers have to introduce innovative designs during new product development. Field reliability of these
new products must be achieved and demonstrated before the start of production. As the design is innovative, this
demonstration cannot be based on field and warranty results of existing engines. To overcome this difficulty, the
present paper presents a method based on numerical simulations, and two aspects are studied. The reliability of
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mechanical components is assessed, taking into account the manufacturing processes variability. This is performed
with numerical reliability based design (RBD) methods such as the first or second order reliability methods (FORM/
SORM). Loads applied by customers are also evaluated according to typical car usage and the specificities of engine
behaviour generated by the new concept. The combination of these two types of information provides an evaluation
of the future field reliability of the new concept. Results such as parameter sensitivities also help to improve
reliability during development by optimizing the design or the manufacturing process. This numerical approach is
illustrated in an example of a manufactured steel exhaust manifold.
Keywords: reliability based design; innovation; exhaust manifold; polynomial chaos; stress-strength; field reliability

1. Introduction performance. It also reduces warranty costs and

Innovation is a constant and necessary aspect of car
design and development. At the global vehicle level,
innovations lead to offering a high level of perfor-
mance and service to the customer. They increase the
attractiveness of new models and the motivation of
customers for buying a new car. At the engine level,
innovations are often necessary to satisfy increasingly
stringent emission standards. These standards apply to
greenhouse effect gas emission, which is directly
connected to fuel consumption, and to exhaust
pollutant emissions such as hydrocarbons, carbon
monoxide, nitrogen oxides, or particulates. Such
innovations can concern combustion chamber design
(cylinder head, piston), air intake system design, fuel
injection system design or exhaust system design. In an
exhaust system, the design of existing parts can be
modified and improved and some new components,
such as cooled exhaust gas recirculation, diesel
particulate filters (DPF) or nitrogen oxides (NOx)
traps, can be added.
In parallel with this innovation process, reliability
must be guaranteed because it is an important factor of
competitiveness. A good reliability has a very positive
impact on brand image and contributes to commercial
increases profitability. For incrementally modified
designs, reliability can be evaluated on the basis of
information obtained from the field for previous and
comparable products. This is, of course, impossible for
completely new designs for which there is no existing
experience.
This paper presents a specific method dedicated to
assessing and optimizing reliability of innovative
designs of engine components during a new engine
development. This method is based on numerical
simulations and is divided into two steps:
. The first one is the analysis of the new com-
ponent reliability connected to its design and
manufacturing process (reliability based design).
. The second one is the evaluation of the
innovative component field reliability, in terms
of failure rate at a given mileage, associated with
use by real customers.
These two steps are described in the two main parts of
this paper and illustrated in an example involving steel
fabricated exhaust manifolds for high specific power
diesel engines.

*Corresponding author. Email: guillaume.morin@renault.com

ISSN 1573-2479 print/ISSN 1744-8980 online

Ó 2009 Taylor & Francis
DOI: 10.1080/15732470701388736
http://www.informaworld.com
 368 G. Morin et al.
2. Innovative component reliability based design
2.1. Context
It has been seen that there is a strong necessity to reduce
fuel consumption in order to limit greenhouse effect gas
emissions. In Europe, a popular and cost effective way to
reach this target is the development of direct injection
diesel engines associated with a reduction in the engine
displacement (‘downsizing’). To also meet new pollutant
emission standards, specific after treatment systems, such
as diesel particulate filters and NOx traps, must be
added. These devices, combined with downsizing,
severely increase thermal loads on the engine exhaust
system. The exhaust manifold is the first component of
the exhaust system, as it connects the cylinder head
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exhaust face to the turbo charger. It is therefore directly
affected by an increase in the exhaust gas temperature
and thermal loads.
Exhaust manifolds were traditionally made of cast
material (mainly cast iron) for cost reasons. This kind
of design can no longer sustain the exhaust gas
temperature (greater than 8508C) encountered in high
specific output diesel engines equipped with diesel
particulate filters and NOx traps. It is therefore
necessary to develop fabricated steel exhaust manifolds
that can resist to this range of temperatures. They also
present the advantage of a lower thermal inertia,
reducing the emissions during the engine cold start.
Although this type of exhaust manifold has been
used for a few years on gasoline engines, it is still
innovative for high specific output diesel engines
equipped with diesel particulate filters and NOx traps.
The reliability assessment of such a novel component
design cannot be based on field results. For these
reasons, the new method developed to assess the
reliability of innovative designs has been first applied
to steel fabricated exhaust manifolds of modern diesel
engines.
2.2. Failure mode analysis
Two mechanical failure modes can typically be
encountered on an exhaust manifold:
. Initiation and propagation of a crack on the
manifold wall, generating a leakage of exhaust gas
from the inside to the outside of the manifold.
. Thermo mechanical deformation of the manifold
at the interface with the other parts (cylinder
head or turbo charger), also generating a leakage
of exhaust gas from the inside to the outside of
the manifold.
These exhaust gas leakages can generate some noise or
loss of performance.
In this paper, only the initiation and propagation
of a crack in the manifold wall are considered. These
cracks can be initiated by mechanical loadings (e.g.
engine vibration) or thermal loadings. Some studies
have shown that the dominant loadings in this case
were thermal cyclic loadings, resulting in low cycle
fatigue and creep (Bignonnet and Charkaluk 2001).
The most important failure factor is then the tempera-
ture history, which is connected to the variations of
power and torque demand on the engine.
To reproduce this failure mode, the validation of
an exhaust manifold is based on a specific endurance
test performed on an engine test bed. The hot/cold
cycle is traditionally used with the objective of creating
the greatest temperature amplitude between the max-
imum temperature (at maximum power) and the
minimum temperature (at idle for instance). The
typical temperature evolution of this hot/cold cycle is
shown in Figure 1.
Due to these loadings, a high temperature gradient
on the exhaust manifold is observed between the exit
flange (high area temperature) and the inner flange,
which is cooler because it is in contact with the cylinder
head. Therefore, this differential of temperature, and
the friction between the inner flange and the cylinder
head, create cyclic thermo mechanical stresses and
then low cycle fatigue cracks and leakages. The critical
areas are often localized on the inter-ducts or near the
exit flange where the temperature is maximal (see
Figure 2).
2.3. Deterministic simulation of failure
The first step of the global approach is to develop a
method that is able to predict the crack initiation in an
exhaust manifold subjected to simple thermo mechan-
ical fatigue cycles such as the hot/cold cycle on the
Figure 1. Exhaust manifold wall temperature evolution
during a hot/cold cycle on an engine test bed.
 Structure and Infrastructure Engineering 369

engine test bed. For this first step, the simulation is Lemaitre and Chaboche formulation to describe an
deterministic. All parameters (geometry, materials elastoplastic cyclic behaviour (Chaboche 1989) is used
characteristics, loadings) are considered to be at their here.
nominal values without any dispersion. The load criterion is defined by:
During tests on an engine test bed, the histories of
engine speed and torque are perfectly defined by the f ¼ fy ðr  XÞ  R; ð1Þ
engine designer and can be controlled during the test.
Therefore, the cyclic thermal solicitations (shown in where f is the plasticity threshold, fy is the Von
Figure 1) are well known and can be computed using Mises criteria, s is the stress tensor, X is the non-
finite element analysis. The boundary conditions are linear kinematic tensor and R is the yield stress. Both
the assembly with the adjacent parts (cylinder head, non-linear kinematic and isotropic hardening are used
turbo charger, catalyst, including gaskets and brack- here:
ets). Thermal loadings include convective exchange
2
with the exhaust gas, and convective and radiative dX ¼ C dep  DX dp; ð2Þ
exchanges between the exhaust manifold and the 3
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engine compartment. dR ¼ bðQ  RÞdp; ð3Þ

Knowing the temperature history on the exhaust
system, the next step is to compute the stress-strain C  
field and the history in the exhaust manifold (e.g. X¼ þ 1  exp ðDep Þ ; ð4Þ
D
Azzouz et al. 2002). For thermal fatigue evaluation, it
is important to select and use an accurate model to R ¼ R0 þ Q½1  exp ðbpÞ; ð5Þ
describe the material cyclic mechanical behaviour. The
s ¼ X þ R; ð6Þ

C
su ¼ þ Q þ R; ð7Þ
D
where ep is the plastic strains tensor, p is the
accumulated plastic strain, s is the uniaxial stress, su
is the ultimate uniaxial stress and R0, C, D, Q and b are
material parameters.
One difficulty with such a model is the identifica-
tion of the material parameters. This work needs many
experimental data at different strain rates and levels
in isothermal low cycle fatigue (LCF) conditions.
Figure 3 presents some results of this identification,

Figure 3. LCF at 6008C: experimental and numerical

Figure 2. Example of cracks on the inter-ducts. results.
 370 G. Morin et al.

and shows stress versus imposed strain during a
uniaxial traction/compression test. This shows a good
correlation in term of stress level between numerical
simulation and experiments.
The fatigue life prediction under anisothermal low
cycle fatigue conditions is still a problem under
discussion. One difficulty is the choice and the
definition of the critical variable governing the fatigue
life. Strain based models (Manson 1954, Taira 1973),
stress based models (Lemaitre et al. 1978) and mixed
models using both stress and strain (Skelton 1991) can
be found in the literature.
To compute the lifetime of steel exhaust manifolds,
a plastic strain based model (Manson – Coffin model)
is used (Manson 1954), and which can be expressed
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computed number of hot/cold cycles before crack
initiation . It can be noted that the model sensitivity to
engine type and engine maximum power is consistent
with the experimental results. After the deterministic
model has been validated, it can be extended in a
probabilistic way in order to perform reliability
analyses.
2.4. Reliability Based Design methods
2.4.1. Hypotheses and principles
Consider, the structural reliability problem defined by:
. A random vector X whose marginal densities and

as: correlations, or better, the joint density function

fX(x) have been estimated.
K
Nf ¼   ; ð8Þ . A performance function G(x), which separates
Dep a
2
the physical admissible realizations from the
non-admissible: G(x) 4 0 is a success realiza-
where Nf is the number of cycles to crack initiation, tion, G(x) 5 0 is a failure realization and
Dep is the variation of plastic strain during one G(x) ¼ 0 defines the limit state function.
cycle, and K and a are material parameters. The tem- . A mechanical model with associated numerical
perature dependency of the damage law complicates solution that allows realizations of G(x) to be
the identification. Table 1 presents typical material evaluated over all the physical definition domain
parameter values for a standard exhaust manifold of x.
stainless steel.
The model identified on LCF tests is validated with The evaluation of structural reliability has been
engine hot/cold test results for two types and different described by several authors (e.g. Ditlevsen and
versions of diesel engines. Engine 1 is a 2.2 litre engine Madsen 1996). If the joint density is known, the
and Engine 2 is a 2.0 litre engine. Engine 2 is tested failure probability Pf is given by:
with different power rates. For each engine, the hot/ Z
cold cycle definition is specific and related to the engine Pf ¼ fx ðXÞ dx1 . . . dxn : ð9Þ
maximum power and idle running conditions. Table 2 GðxÞ<0
shows the comparison between experimental and
In most cases, this integral cannot be directly evaluated
for at least two reasons: the joint density function is
Table 1. Material parameter values. not known and incomplete information constituted by
Room temperature Maximum temperature the marginal distributions and the second order
moments has to be used, and the calculation of the
R0 (MPa) 200 30 performance function can only be obtained by a
C (MPa) 3606103 1506103
D (MPa) 2200 2000 numerical procedure given by the finite element
Q (MPa) 60 710 method.
b 20 12 Traditionally, the analysis is performed in three
K 48 5.5 steps: a probabilistic transformation T associates with
a 1.2 0.9
the vector X of any physical random variables, the
vector U of normally uncorrelated and standardized
Table 2. Fatigue lives. Gaussian variables N(0,1). For this purpose, Nataf,
Rosenblatt or Hermite transformations can be used
Simulation using (Ditlevsen and Madsen 1996). Therefore:
Experimental equation (8)
 
Engine 1 4100 cycles 3950 cycles U ¼ TðXÞ and GðXÞ ¼ G T1 ðUÞ  HðUÞ: ð10Þ
Engine 2: low power 5000 cycles 4850 cycles
Engine 2: medium power 2400 cycles 2250 cycles The Hasofer – Lind reliability index b is then
Engine 2: high power 2150 cycles 2200 cycles
evaluated by solving the optimization problem
 Structure and Infrastructure Engineering
pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
b ¼ min ð Ut UÞ under the constraint H(U)  0. The
failure probability is then obtained by using the first
order reliability method (FORM), by second order
approximation (SORM) or by conditional simulations
(see Figure 4).
2.4.2. Coupling of finite element analysis and
reliability algorithms
The direct coupling method between the finite element
analysis (FEA) and the reliability algorithms is
proposed here. It solves the reliability problem without
more hypotheses than a probabilistic representation of
the correlated random vector X given by the marginal
distributions, instead of using the joint probability
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371
When using FORM or SORM, such combinations
can be made to obtain reliability results with a
reasonable number of finite element calculations (e.g.
see Pendola et al. 2003). If the gradients of the
performance function need to be computed analyti-
cally 4(n þ 1) is a good approximation of the required
number of FEA if n represents the number of random
variables
In principle, this method can also be used with
Monte-Carlo simulations or directional simulations.
But, to obtain a low probability level, the CPU time
can be very large because of the realization of a large
number of finite element calls. This is why the FORM
approximation has been used in conjunction with
importance sampling in order to validate the estimated

function that is seldom available in practice. A good probability.

efficiency indicator of these methods is the number of
FEA calls.
In this method, the optimization algorithm used to 2.5. Influence of design and manufacturing process on
solve the problem (Rackwitz and Fiessler 1979, Abdo component reliability
and Rackwitz 1990) directly calls the finite element The previous reliability methods have been applied
model (FEM) code each time a realization of the here on a steel exhaust manifold considering uncer-
performance function G(X) and its derivatives have to tainties in:
be evaluated. The gradients calculation is performed
by finite differences. The number of FEA depends on . Geometry: four thicknesses of the manifold are
the performance of the optimization algorithm and on considered random due to the manufacturing
the required accuracy for the iterative schemes. process (Thickness numbers 3 to 6 on Figure 6).
Supplementary calls are necessary if curvatures of the
limit state (SORM approximations) are used. The
Table 3. FORM method attributes.
advantages and drawbacks of this method are sum-
marized in Table 3. Advantages Drawbacks
To minimize these drawbacks, special software
Accuracy of the FEA Expensive development
programs such as PHIMECAÓ (PHIMECA 2004) are preserved. of link between FEA
now available to couple reliability algorithms and FEA Algorithms used are efficient. and reliability analyses.
(see Figure 5), and non-based gradient algorithms have Automatic procedure Numerical evaluation of
been developed to consider some discontinuities in the (no intervention from gradients (discontinuities
the analyst). may occur).
limit state function.

Figure 4. FORM/SORM approximations. Figure 5. PHIMECA softwareÓ.

 372
Figure 6. Variable thickness areas on the manifold.
. Material: the following parameters of the stress-
strain curve (see x2.3) are considered uncertain
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and temperature dependant. Young’s modulus
E, yield strength SE, hardening coefficients C, D
due to material supplier scattering.
. Lifetime: damage coefficient K involved in the
Manson – Coffin law (a is considered to be
totally correlated with K).
. Loadings: minimal (Tral) and maximal (Tmax)
exhaust temperatures during the hot/cold test are
considered random due to fluctuations asso-
ciated with the engine control and running.
A critical area on the structure, where the plastic
strain amplitude is maximal, is considered. At this
point, the probability that the number of life cycles
during the hot/cold test (Nfailure) becomes lower than
the required number (Nrequired) is evaluated by:
Prob½GðXi Þ  0 ¼ ProbðNfailure  Nrequired Þ:
Introducing the 11 previous random variables, the
presented reliability method requires 37 finite element
analyses for a FORM reliability assessment. This
FORM approximation has been validated both by a
SORM calculation and by some importance sampling
around the design point found by FORM. The typical
results are:
. Estimation of the failure probability Pf and
reliability index b as well as the design point P*,
i.e. the point on the limit state function where the
joint density is maximal in the standard space.
. Global influence of the uncertainties on the
failure probability given by direction cosines of
the direction P*O (see Figure 4), O being the
origin in the standard space (typical results are
shown in Figure 7). Here, the parameter K in the
Manson – Coffin law contributes to more than
93% to the reliability followed by the thickness
ep5, with a contribution of 4%. This importance
of the parameter of the fatigue life law is
G. Morin et al.
Figure 7. Global influence of the random variables given by
direction cosines.
consistent with the large scatter of material
fatigue tests results on which this law is based.
To go deeper into the reliability analysis, interest-
ing results are given by sensitivities or elasticities of the
failure probability (e.g. reliability index) to the mean or
standard deviation of the random variables. A high
sensitivity to the mean value of a variable suggests that
a new design with a different mean value can have
considerably higher reliability (e.g. a new material with
higher strength). If it is sensitive to the standard
deviation, it suggests that the knowledge of the
parameter variability has to be improved, or that
quality control has to be intensified for this parameter
ð11Þ (as for process variability sources). For example, the
sensitivity of the reliability index b with respect to mX,
the mean of the parameter X, is given by:
@b
: ð12Þ
@mX
The elasticity, which is a normalized measure of the
sensitivity given above, is given by:
@b mX
: ð13Þ
@mX b
Typical results in the manifold are given in Figures
8 and 9.
Figure 8 shows the elasticities of the failure
probability with respect to the mean values of the
random variables. For example, an increase of 1% of
the exhaust gas maximum temperature will induce an
increase of 11% of the probability of failure (i.e. a
reduction of 11% of the exhaust manifold intrinsic
reliability). It shows that the nominal values of the
maximal temperature Tmax, the yield stress SE and the
 Structure and Infrastructure Engineering
thickness ep5 have a great influence on the failure
probability whereas their global uncertainty measure
given by the direction cosines in Figure 7 are not
important. This can be explained by the elasticities
with respect to the standard deviation in Figure 9. The
high importance of the mean values is reduced by the
low importance of the standard deviations. Inversely,
the mean value of the Manson – Coffin law K is not
important, whereas its standard deviation is of great
importance, due to the large scatter of material fatigue
tests results, as mentioned before.
All the reliability results are important in providing
design guidance to improve the reliability of the
component. In this example, it would be interesting
to modify the design by reducing the nominal thickness
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of area number 5 of the manifold. It would be also
valuable to decrease exhaust gas maximum tempera-
ture by optimizing combustion and engine control. As
far as material is concerned, it would be more efficient
Figure 8. Elasticities of the failure probability with respect
to the means.
Figure 9. Elasticities of the failure probability with respect
to the standard deviations.
373
to reduce fatigue strength scatter by material process
control, if possible, than to change it for a material
with a higher fatigue strength.
3. Field reliability analysis
3.1. General methodology
The goal of the field reliability analysis is to predict the
future field cumulative failure rate of the component at
a given mileage. This failure is compared to the
reliability target assigned to the component associated
to a given failure mode. It is clear that if this analysis
can be performed during engine development, several
months before beginning production, countermeasures
could be applied if necessary, at much lower cost and
time than if first results from the field are awaited.
The global approach to reach this goal is based on
the strength-stress method (Thoft-Cristensen 1986)
and has already been presented in detail by Morin
et al. (2005). The basis of the method is to compare,
for a given critical area of the exhaust manifold, the
statistical distribution of thermo mechanical damage
applied by the whole population of customers at a
given mileage (the stress), with the statistical distri-
bution of thermo mechanical damage that the com-
ponent can sustain without failure (the strength).
Typical probability densities of these two distribu-
tions are plotted in Figure 10. The cumulative field
failure rate is the probability for all customers to
apply a level of damage that will exceed the damage
that their exhaust manifold can sustain without
failure (strength).
Using the known analytic forms of the probability
density function of the stress distribution fStress and of
the cumulative distribution function of the strength
Figure 10. Probability densities of stress and strength of
inter-ducts area.
 374 G. Morin et al.

distribution FStrength, the failure rate Pf can be
computed as:
Zþ1
Pf ¼ fStress ðxÞFStrength ðxÞdx: ð14Þ
0 influence of the after treatment system can also be
This integral can be computed by standard numerical
methods such as the Simpson rule. To take into
account errors in deterministic models for predicting
stress and strength and probabilistic models, a
confidence interval is associated with the probability
of failure by assuming some variations in the mean and
standard deviation for stress and strength distribu-
tions. This aspect is presented in detail in Prince et al.
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that are very fast (a few minutes). The overall thermal
analysis method is presented in Figure 11.
A typical example of the exhaust manifold max-
imum temperature history computed under road test
conditions is presented in Figure 12. On this graph, the
seen. When the vehicle is equipped with a diesel
particulate filter, an increase of the temperature when
particulates are burning for regeneration is observed.
3.2.3. Thermo mechanical analysis
With the temperature time histories, it is now possible
to determine the corresponding thermo mechanical

(2005).

3.2. Evaluation of damage applied by customers

3.2.1. Engine loads
One difficulty of this approach is to obtain histories
of engine speed and torque for customer use mainly
due to the wide scatter and variety of customer
behaviour. The method is based on data recorded on
instrumented vehicles that are lent, for a few weeks, to
customers with typical every day use: urban, road,
highway, mountain, etc. Based on these records,
typical histories of vehicle speed and acceleration are
defined for each type of use. With records coming
from different customers with the same type of
journey, the scatter of driving styles can be evaluated.
They are grouped into three types: fuel efficient,
standard and sport. These histories can be trans-
Figure 11. Synoptic of thermal analysis method.
formed in engine speed and torque histories, as men-
tioned previously, by computation based on vehicle
and engine characteristics. They can be later adapted
for new vehicles of the same category based on vehicle
performance evolution.

3.2.2. Thermal analysis

The next step of the method is to compute the transient
evolution of temperature on critical points of the
exhaust manifold. At each time step, stationary tem-
perature for corresponding engine speed and torque is
interpolated from a table assessed by experimental
measurement. Then, depending on the value of the
time step, this temperature is corrected to take into
account the thermal inertia of the part. The thermal
inertia has been primarily characterized by computing,
with the FEA model, the part temperature time
response to typical thermal loads evolution (step,
ramp, etc.). This response is correlated with the Figure 12. Time histories of exhaust manifold during road
corresponding measurements on an engine test bed test with and without a diesel particulate filter (DPF).
 Structure and Infrastructure Engineering
behaviour using a specific local model developed for
inter-ducts. This model is a local FEA model based on
a classical sub-modelling technique, and driven by
results from the global model described in x2.3. The
evolution of the plastic strain during the road test is
computed and presented in Figure 13.
3.2.4. Damage computation
For a lifetime evaluation of real and complex stresses
and strains histories, methods for damage accumula-
tion computation become a critical issue. The first step
of damage computation is to decompose complex
plastic strain histories obtained from thermo mechan-
ical simulations into a set of simple fatigue cycles.
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After a critical review of existing models, the rainflow
method (Masuishi 1968) has been selected and
implemented for this purpose.
The decomposition results in a set of NB fatigue
blocks defined by equivalent plastic strain amplitude
Deip and number of cycles applied ni. The Manson –
Coffin model (see equation (8)) provides a number of
cycles to failure NiF for each elementary block obtained
from the rainflow decomposition by:
K
NiF ¼ Dei a :
p
2
Damage accumulated on the entire plastic strain
history is then computed based on the Palgreem –
Miner method:
X
NB
ni
D¼ i :
i¼1
NF
Figure 13. Equivalent plastic strain history during the road
test.
375
3.2.5. Damage distribution
This method permits damage values for typical
customer use characterized as previously described to
be computed. With information of whole customer
distribution around these types, it is possible to
correlate a probability law for damage inflicted by
real customers with a classical statistical correlation
method, for example, under the form of a normal,
lognormal or Weibull law. This law provides the stress
distribution for the stress-strength method.
3.3. Component strength
Now that an evaluation of the stress distribution exists,
the strength distribution must be obtained in order to
apply the stress-strength method. As exposed pre-
viously, the strength distribution in the case here is the
statistical distribution of thermo mechanical damage
that generates the failure in the critical area of the
manifold. This distribution is connected to the scatter
of manifold or engine characteristics: wall thicknesses,
material properties, exhaust gas temperature, etc.
The strength distribution assessment can be based
on endurance tests results. But, very often, during a
ð15Þ new engine development, for innovative components,
the number of these results is not sufficient to have a
good statistical confidence in the probability density
function evaluation. Another approach is to use
numerical reliability methods as presented in the
previous chapter. It is obvious that this estimation
can be performed by more or less improved simulation
procedures such as crude Monte-Carlo simulations.
ð16Þ
Nevertheless, in cases where realizations of the
strength can only be obtained through complicated
numerical procedures such as finite element models,
estimating the probability density function (PDF) with
sufficient accuracy requires huge numerical efforts.
This is why some numerical procedures have been
developed in the field of probabilistic mechanics in
order to access the PDF of variables with less
numerical effort compared to simulations procedures.
One that is described here is derived from stochastic
finite element procedures and is non-intrusive, i.e. it
does not require developments in the finite element
code (Berveiller et al. 2004).
In this study, the main random quantity of interest
is the lifetime of an exhaust manifold subjected to both
mechanical and thermal loadings. The lifetime is
calculated on a special part of the manifold using a
random fatigue model. A finite element model that is
coupled with a stochastic model composed of several
random variables, including the fatigue randomness is
also defined. It was shown in x2.4.2 that the proposed
reliability methodology can predict accurately a
 376 G. Morin et al.

quantile of the lifetime of the manifold (i.e. the polynomials of fxk gM

probability that the lifetime of the manifold is less
than a given value) and the parameters that are the
most important on the reliability.
In order to establish the PDF of the lifetime of the
manifold, a non-intrusive finite element scheme to
compute the PDF of the plastic strain Dep (o) at a
special location on the manifold is proposed. Then, the
PDF of the number of cycles to failure Nf(o) is
obtained by Monte-Carlo samplings of Dep (o) made
into the random fatigue model. The stochastic
finite element method (SFEM) allows the evaluation
of the statistical moments of the response and its PDF
for a reasonable number of finite element model
calculations.
Downloaded by [UNAM Ciudad Universitaria] at 21:50 23 December 2014
k¼1 whose degree is less than or
equal to a fixed value p. Note that the following
relationship holds:
ðM þ pÞ!
P¼ : ð19Þ
M!p!
Berveiller et al. (2005) suggest taking p ¼ 3 in order to
get an accurate estimation of the response, this implies
that P ¼ 35.
The purpose of the non-intrusive SFEM is to
determine the values of the 35 deterministic coefficients
sj computed by finite element calculations. In this
study, a method of regression is adopted. Indeed, the
studies carried out show that this type of approach gets

very good results for a reasonable number of calcula-

tions (Berveiller et al. 2005).
3.3.1. Principles and hypothesis (2) Non-intrusive regression method. Given n
ðiÞ
(1) Expansion of the response onto the polynomial chaos. realizations of fxk gM k¼1 ; i ¼ 1; . . . ; n, which produce a
Let X be the input random vector whose joint PDF is benchmark, the n realizations of the random vector
prescribed. Then, using an isoprobability transforma- X(1), . . . , X(n) are made using the transformation T.
tion T, the four independent normal standard random For each realization, S(i) ¼ S(X(i)) is evaluated, where
variables of the new stochastic model can be defined S is the corresponding value computed with the finite
as: element code. Moreover, the approximated response is
8 then computed by equation (2). The coefficients sj,
>
> x ¼ TðTmaxÞ j ¼ 0, . . . , P – 1 are determined by minimizing the
< 1
x2 ¼ TðuSE Þ squared error defined by:
ð17Þ
>
> x ¼ TðuE Þ
: 3
x4 ¼ TðuC Þ: n 
X 2
DS ¼ SðiÞ  S~ðiÞ : ð20Þ
Let S(o) ¼ Dep (o) be the response to be approxi- i¼1

mated. This random variable is expressed onto the so-

called polynomial chaos as: Or, equivalently:

  X
n X
P1 n o !2
X
P1
ðiÞ ðiÞ
M
S  S~ ¼ Sj Cj fxk gM
k¼1 ; ð18Þ DS ¼ S  Sj Cj xk : ð21Þ
k¼1
j¼0 i¼1 j¼0

where M ¼ 4 (number of random variables) and Cj, These unknown coefficients are solutions of the
j ¼ 0, . . . , P – 1 are P multi-dimensional Hermite following linear system:

0 n oM  n oM  n oM  n o  1
P
n
ðiÞ ðiÞ P
n
ðiÞ ðiÞ M
B C0 xk C 0 xk  C0 xk CP1 xk C
B i¼1 k¼1 k¼1 i¼1 k¼1 k¼1 C
B C
B .. .. .. C
B C
B n n o .  n o  . n o
.
 n o  C
@P ðiÞ
M
ðiÞ
M P
n
ðiÞ
M
ðiÞ
M A
CP1 xk C 0 xk  CP1 xk CP1 xk
i¼1 k¼1 k¼1 i¼1 k¼1 k¼1
0 n n o  1 ð22Þ
P ðiÞ ðiÞ
M
0 1 S C 0 xk
S0 B k¼1 C
B i¼1 C
B . C B C
B . C¼B .. C
@ . A B . C
B n  n oM  C
SP1 @ P ðiÞ A
SðiÞ CP1 xk
i¼1 k¼1
 Structure and Infrastructure Engineering 377

An important point in this approach is to properly

ðiÞ
select the benchmarking points fxk gM k¼1 ; i ¼ 1; . . . ; n.
Note that n  P is required so that a solution of
equation (6) exists. Based on the early work made by
Berveiller et al. (2005), (p þ 1) roots of the (p þ 1)th
order Hermite polynomial are chosen here, and then
(p þ 1)M vectors of length M using all possible
combinations were built. Then, N outcomes out of
these (p þ 1)M possibilities were selected. In this study,
N ¼ 105 allows a satisfactory approximation of the
response to be obtained. For further details on
convergence criterion for the approximated response,
see Berveiller et al. (2005).
(3) Computation of the statistical moments of the
response quantities. From equation (2), all statistical
Figure 14. PDF of plastic strain amplitude.
Downloaded by [UNAM Ciudad Universitaria] at 21:50 23 December 2014

moments of the response can be computed. The mean

of S is then:

E½S ¼ s0 : ð23Þ

The variance of S is:

X
P1  
Var½S ¼ s2s ¼ E C2i s2i : ð24Þ
i¼1

The skewness and the kurtosis coefficients of S are:

1 X P1 X
P1 X
P1
dS ¼ dijk Si Sj Sk ; ð25Þ
s3S i¼1 j¼1 k¼1

1 X P1 X
P1 X
P1 X
P1
Figure 15. PDF of lifetime.
KS ¼ E½Ci Cj Ck Cl Si Sj Sk Sl : ð26Þ
s4S i¼1 j¼1 k¼1 l¼1

after endurance tests on an engine test bed on several

3.3.2. Application to the manifold
The histogram of the PDF of Dep(o) obtained by the
non-intrusive SFEM is given in Figure 14 with 10 000
Monte-Carlo samplings. It can be seen that the strain
plastic amplitude PDF is rather close to a Gaussian
PDF.
The previous samplings are now integrated in the
random fatigue model. Then the plot of the PDF of Nf
at the same node of the FE manifold model is shown in
Figure 15 with 10 000 Monte-Carlo samplings.
As a result of these simulations, the failure
probability computed (e.g. the value of the quantile
Nrequired) is very close to the value obtained from the
previous FORM calculation, confirming the choice
made on the random variables retained for the
development of the strain plastic amplitude on poly-
nomial chaos. These results can be validated by
comparison with the scatter of fatigue life, obtained
identical engines.
3.3.3. Field reliability evaluation
Now, a global numerical stress-strength approach
exists, and this can be used to study the field reliability
of a new steel fabricated exhaust manifold, installed on
a four-cylinder diesel direct injection engine. Figure 16
presents levels of damage undergone by typical
customers. Logically, the sport driving style is more
damaging than the others, as the power demand is
higher. The damage is also higher for road use because
cyclic variations of power, exhaust gas temperature
and plastic strains per kilometre (i.e. number of cycles
for fatigue) are more important than for highway use.
Then, the field cumulative failure rate can be
computed and compared to the reliability target. If
the target is not reached, the sensitivity analysis
described earlier gives information about the design
 378 G. Morin et al.

and process parameters whose modification will be the
most efficient to increase product reliability and
decrease the field failure rate.
The method can be validated on engines under
serial production, using information obtained from
engines under warranty. Failed parts and elements
about mileage and customer use can be brought back
through dealers. Detailed analysis of these data can
confirm general and numerical results obtained by the
method presented in this paper.
3.3.4. Endurance test calibration
As well as the evaluation of damage undergone by
customers, this method can be easily used to compute
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work under specific combustion conditions in order to
be maintained in good conditions. During current
customer use, exhaust gas temperature must be
artificially increased in order to burn particulates in
the filter. For nitrogen oxides reduction in NOx traps,
the fuel/air ratio must be frequently increased. For a
given customer use, these modifications of combustion
will increase thermal loads on the exhaust manifold
and then decrease its reliability. Figure 12 shows the
increase of temperature due to diesel particulates filter
regeneration during a road test. Before the start of
production of a new engine, the impact of innovative
after treatment systems on field reliability can be
evaluated with the numerical method given in this
paper. Figure 18 shows the level of damage undergone

the damage applied during various endurance tests, by the most demanding customers, for the same kind
performed on engine test beds, or on vehicles. The
comparison of the two categories of damage is shown
in Figure 17.
With the probability density function of damage
undergone by customers and the maximum rate of
failure defined by a reliability target, it is possible to
define the optimal level of damage to apply during
validation tests (‘Test target’ in Figure 17). If this
target is too low (e.g. ‘Test 1’ in Figure 17), too many
customers will not be protected by validation tests, and
failure rate in service will be too high. If this target is
too high (e.g. ‘Test 2’ in Figure 17), validation tests will
be too long and expensive and will penalize develop-
ment schedule. In addition, it will lead to oversize
engines and thus an increase in its mass and cost. The
global method, taking into account scatter of tests
results, is described in detail in Prince et al. (2005).

3.3.5. Influence of after treatment systems Figure 17. Comparison between damage undergone by
customers and applied during tests.
Diesel engine after treatment systems, such as diesel
particulate filters and NOx traps need regularly to

Figure 18. Exhaust manifold damage for Euro 3, Euro 4

Figure 16. Damage indicator for various customer types. and Euro 5 engine versions.
 Structure and Infrastructure Engineering
of engine, on a Euro 3 version, a Euro 4 version with
diesel particulate filter and a Euro 5 version with diesel
particulate filter and a NOx trap. The increase of
severity with exhaust emissions standards can be
clearly seen.
4. Conclusion
The general method presented in this paper permits the
field reliability of an engine part to be evaluated using
a completely numerical approach. The method is
important for the development of innovative compo-
nents and new engines for which there is no experience
or field data. It also gives access to design and
manufacturing process parameters that will have the
Downloaded by [UNAM Ciudad Universitaria] at 21:50 23 December 2014
most important influence on reliability, in terms of
nominal value and tolerance intervals. It is then
possible to optimize reliability at a minimum cost
and development time.
During the development, endurance tests results
can be taken into account regularly in order to increase
the confidence in the reliability evaluation up to the
start of production. Specific methods that are able to
integrate numerical and experimental results closely
are now under development and application. They will
contribute to maximizing the efficiency of the present
global numerical approach.
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