at Leite ies | HUGNG DAN a GIAO DICH "Downd mién phi tai Hind SONG Thu vién tai chinh T.me/Kienthuctaichinh " i a J i | T | DN ON Aaa aac Cee Tere emu e hb GoaBloomberg HUGNG DAN GIAO DICH THEO SONG ELL y VISUAL GUIDE TO ELLIOT WAVE TRADING WAYNE GORMAN JEFFREY KENNEDY ufge gisi thigu ba chuyén gia hang dau vé séng Elliott ROBERT R.PRECHTER, JR. Nguti dich: TRUONG MINH HUY Dart. DINELNGHIA: Céc thudt ngit chuyén mén déu duigc dink ghia r6 rang néu xust hign trong qué trinh thio lun, ) TIU DIEM: Cc ¥ tuéing quan trong sé duigc lam néi bat > CACH THUC Si? DUNG CAC HAM CHUC NANG TRONG THIET B] DAU CUGI CUA BLOOMBERG: Déi vi nhitog ngudi sit dung thit bj dia cusi cia Bloomberg, s& ed mot bing gidi thigu céc ham chic ning dé ban doc e& thé tra ctu kj luGing ham cfc chit 8 trong cusn sich nay trén thigtbj ddu cusi Bloomberg. LHUGNG DAN GIAO DICH THEO SONG ELLIOTT CAC TAI LIEU KEM THEO ‘Mi cun sich “Hiudng Dain Thue Hanh’ sé bao gm mot s6 e-book bing ting Anh nb sau: > CAC VIDEO GIANG DAY: Dé minh hoa mét s6 Khéi snigm khi thy hanh trong thy t& > KIEM TRA KIEN THUC: Bao gm céc clu héi nhiéu uyén a chon hoc ciu hdi Aing/sai dé rén ayn cdc ign thie va ky nding dugc A& cip trong cusin sich nay. > CAC CUA 86 QUANG CAO: Bé dinh nghia mot s6 thuat. ng quan trong. Luu ¥ cho bin dich tiéng Viet: Ban dich vn cung clip cfc dung link truy c&p ede e-book tiéng Anh nhuing nhom. dich Khéng dich céc tai ligu nay sang tiéng Vigt vi khong NGUYEN LY SONG ELLIOTT CAI TIEN CAC CONG CU PHAN TICH KY THUAT TRUYEN THONG NHU THE NAO Cé ba cong cu phan tich ky thuat 1a: cae chi béo xu > NAM CACH SU DUNG NGUYEN LY SONG huténg, céc chi bdo dao dong va cic chi béo do luting ELLIOTT D£ CAI THIEN HOAT DONG ‘tam ly thi truing (sentiment), Cac chi bdo theo sau xu SuopicH hhutdng bao gém cic dutdng trung binh di dong, chi bio ACD, vi chi bo dinh huténg ADX. Mét s6 chi bao dao dong phé bign duge céc nha giao dich thuding stt dung Sau dy i nam céch sit dung Nguyén Ly Séng Elliott c6 thé ‘ip ich cho ban va lam cai thign than qua giao dich: 1, Nguyén Ly Séng Elliott giép xe din xu huténg chin hhién nay la: chi béo Stochastic Oscillator, cit thi trating. Tiéu DIEM chi bao ROC (Rate of Change), va chi béo 2. Né gp xéc dinh cde chuyén dng gid nguae huéng xu Kjnang phantich CCI (Commodity Channel Index). Cie chi hudng én. ‘thuge v8 sy tinh bbéo tm ly thi teuémg bao gém ty Ie 96 3. NO giip nic dinh kha ning do chigu xu huéng pee Iugng hop déng quyén chon bin/s6 tong 4. Cung ep cdc muc tifu gi c6 46 tin cy cao. dich thanh céng hop déng quyén chon mua (put-call ratio) 5. Chi ra cfc diém cu thé ma miu hinh gid bi sai ghia la ban phai lam chii duge chinh ban than minh, va chi bio COT (Commitment of Trader) (onvatidation). ‘Céc eng cu phan tich ky thudt trén tay Inu ich nhuing vin e6 mét thiéu s6t Ién: 40 41‘CHUGNG |: GIAI PHAU PHUONG PHAP GIAO DICH BANG SONG ELLIOTT >» 1, XAC DINH XU HUONG CHINH THI TRUONG “MBit xu hung ln ludn trdi qua nai séng..2 - Teich te iA ccuén sich Nguyén Ly Séng Elliott cia Frost va Prechter. Nguyén Ly Séng Elliott gidp xic din huéng cia xu |huéng chinh, Nam s6ng tng cho thay xu huéng chin 1a tng gid. Nguige lai, nam sng gidm chi ra xu huding on dang gidm gié. Ti sao thong tin nay la rat quan trong? Vi bban s# d8 dang hon Ki giao dich theo hudng ctia xu huiéng chin, vi d6 1 con dutég it khang ew nba va diy chinh ‘chu cham ngén c6: "x hudng ld ban”. Toi nh ra giao dich theo hiding cita xu hung chinh dé ding hon so v6i vide cf ging ban tai din va mua tal dy (mot cOng vigethuc sit kkhé khan va gin nh la bat kha thi). >»2. XAC BINH CAC CHUYEN DONG GIA NGUOC XU HUONG CHINE “Ce chuyn dong gud chiéu xu hudéng chinh sé dién ra theo ba song.” -Trich ti cudn sich Nguyen Lf Song Eliott ciia Frost va Prechter. Nguyén Ly Séng Eliott cing giip xc dinh céc chuyén > 3. XAC DINH KHA NANG DAO CHIEU XU HUONG. Gidng nhw RAN, Eliott dé quan sit, cic miu hinh sng Eliot Ibs lap ll cfc eda tr lén bing cc ca tric nh hon bén trong ching Song Elliott 4 duge kiém ching bai mét trong ba phat hién In clia Khoa hoc vat Ij thé kj 20 la “Ly ‘Thuyét Hon Mang (Chaos Theory)". Séng Elliott c6 tinh chat cda hinh hoe Fractal, duge higu don gidn ta ‘sir lip lal cla cd trac lon bang cde céiu tric nhé hon. ben trong chiing. Vi du, ban hay quan sat qué sup Jo, Néu ban ngat mét nhdnh nhé qua sup lo va quan. sat ching, ban sé thay hinh dang cua mot ahénh. ‘nhé nay ging het nhu qua sip la lén. Tinh chat hinh hoc Fractal cla s6ng Elliott chinh Ia tinh chat “sng trong s6ng" - Chi thich cua ngudi dich, Su lap lai trong cfu tric sng dutgc gol tinh chét hinh hoc Fractal cia hanh dong gié nu minh hoa trong hinh 1.1 ‘Séng (1) duige chia than nim s6ng nhé hon nbitng chi fa :mét phin trong méu hinh nim s6nglén hon. Thong tin niy(CHONG 1: GIAI PHAU HUONG PHAP GIAO DICH BANG SONG ELLIOTT hii ich nt thé nao? Thu sv, thong tin nay 4a git cc nha siao dich thé xic djnh kha ning dio chiéu (maturity) cia sau huiéng. Vi dy, néu gié da ting dén séng 5 trong céu tric tng gid gdm nam song va séng 5 nay da hoin tt ba hode ‘bén séng:nhé hon bén trong, aba giao dich c6 thé hiéu ring «day khéng pha a thai digm thich hop dé b6 sung vi thé mua. ‘Thay vio 46, iy fa thoi diém t6t dé chot loi nhudn hod it nnhét la ning lénh ding I6 len dé bao vé igi nhusin 6 dig. Vi Nguyén Ly Séng Eliott xc dinh xu huéng, cic chuyén dng nguige xu hung chinh, va kh ning do chigu xu hung, khong ngac nhién tai sao Nguyén Lj Song cling {ip ching ta phat hign su tr Ipieta xu hudng chin. MOU hi céc chuyén dong nguge xu hung dign ra theo ba song (A-B-O), cu tric song nay c6 thé I tin higu cho thay xu hung ckinh a tré lai, mot khi hanh dOng gié vuot qua (1) 6) 5 4 Hinh 11 (Cc in hig giao dich theo sing Eliott 1 HIGU GIAO DICH THEO SONG eLLIOTT dinh cia sng B. Biét duge Khi no xu hung chinh sé tr laimang dén mot loi thé lin: N6 lam ting khd ning ob duge nhting giao dich thinh c6ng, va sé cing thinh céng hon iia néu nhui két hgp wi cic cng cu ky thudttruyén théng, >» 4. CUNG CAP CAC MUC TIEU GIA (Che cbng cu kf thus truyén thing khong cung cp cdc mye tiéu gid vi mmc 6 tin cdy cao ging nhu Nguyén Ly Séng. Khi RN. Eliott viét vé Nguyén Ly Song trong cusn sich ‘Ludt Ti Nhién, 6ng khing dinh day s6 Fibonacci 1a nén ting todn hoc cho Nguyen Ly Séng. Séng Elliot, ci sing. dy va séng higu chin, vin di du c6 lin quan dé cée ty 1g Fibonacci. Vi dy, tét cd cde ba séng chuyén dng (motive ‘waves) déu cé lién bé v6i nhau theo thuat toén Fibonacci, cu thé li cde con s6 nbut 1,618 ho¥e 2,618 (Mn hugt ft nghich dio cba céc con s6 Fibonacci khdc nhit 0,618 v8 0,382) yHinb 1.2 5 yiinh13 og Séng 5 mé réng “a Cc tin hig giao dich theo séng EliottcHUGNG 1 GGIAL PHAU PHUONG PHAP GIAO DICH BANG SONG ELLIOTT Bis séng1 mérong a Hinh 14 (Ge tin higu giao dich theo séng Eliott Hin 15 (Cac tin higu giao dich theo song Eliott 0,618 = 910,382 Afi é (Gi tn higu gia dick theo sing Eliott TIN HIEW GIAO DICH THEO SONG ELLIOTT Xem binh 1.2, hinh 1.3 va hinh 14 ‘Tutomg ty, s6ng higu chinh thutding thoi lui theo cdc ‘ty 1g phan tram Fibonacci so véi s6ng trudc d6. Nhiing ite gid tvong ting véi cde ty I¢ Fibonacci cho phép nha giao dich thigt lip muc tiéu gid chét lai va xéc din nnhitng mic gid ma 6 dé c6 kha nang din ra sv do chiéu (xem Hinh 1.5 va Hinh 1.6) >»5, CUNG CAP CAC “DIEM MO HINH KHONG CO GIA TR] (INVALIDATION)” MOT CACH RO RANG. Phan tich séng Elliott 6 thé chi ra nhiéing “dim mo hinh khdng 06 gi tri” mot ch 16 rang i mic gi ma eich tte <ém song Elliott hign tai khdng cn ding, Biétkhi no ban sai 66 théng tin quan trong nit a6 wei mot nha giao dich, ‘Tai mtic gid nio sé cho thay mot giao dich thé bai? Nhiéu nha giao dich sit dung cic quy tic quan tri tién nhiim tim ra

CAC SONG DAY Bit kj khi nao séng dy hoan tat, hung din giao dich tay ‘thude vio 46 si cia séng higu chinh, “Song hitu chink, dic bigt Id song 4, thudng 6 Khuynh hudng thodi li vé cham ving gid song 4 trude 6 cika céip 6 sing nhé hin mot cp, thudng la cham mite cule diém (tic dink hoac déy) cia nd.” ~ Teich tit cud sich Nguyen Lf Séng Elliott cia téc gid Frost va Prechter. Mge dit huéng din nay c6 vé phifc tap, nhuing Iai dé dang thytc ign trong giao dich thy t€. KV thuat giao dich Ia tham gia md vi thé tai diém pha va mite dy (néua xu huéng trutée 46 1a ting gid) hod tai dinh (néw xu hung trudc dé la gidm gid) cha s6ng [iv] trong séng 5 (xem Hinh 1.8). Dé ching t6 thi tréng thiét lap dinh, yéu céu thi truéng phai pha thing day cia dao dong trude 46 nhut la bing chiing cho théy séng day thyc sit hodn tat. Do 46, nha giao dich thiét ap lénh ditng 18 tai SONG BAY Tai ring ng oie a Hinh 1s (Cie tin higu giao dich theo sing dy Tal rg glam ats[CHUONG 1: G1AI PHAU PHUGNG PHAP GIAO DICH BANG SONG ELLIOT TIN HIBU GIAO DICH THEO SONG ELLIOTT inh gin nbét (néu ban dang ban tit xu hung ting gid 1 tham gia mé vi thé Kkhi gié phé ve duéng xu hudng trudc dé) hode day gin nhét (néu ban dang mua ti xu ni céc eye diém (1a dink hode day) cha séng 2 va sing uténg gldm trude 46). 4. Trong truding hop nay, lénh dimg 16 nén duge dat tai 4c céc eve diém (dink hode day gn nhat) cta miu hinh > SONG CHEO (ENDING DIAGONAL) (sem inh 1.10) Huéng din thi&t lap tin higu giao dich va dat lenh ding 18 ‘Néu ban xic dinb bin than a mot nha giao dich cue ky bban dau cho song chéo tung ty mut cic séng dy: nghia la ning dng, sau dt lt hiding dn thi lap tin higu giao dich ch& cho dén Ki gid phd wo mic déy (néu xu hiding tribe d6 cho ban. Thong thuting, song 3 trong séng chéo ngin hon 1, tang gi) hoge mie dinh (néa xu hung true 46 la gm s0-v6is6ng 1. Trong trading hop nay, quy t&e séng cho ring 8) cha séng 4 truéc khi maw thé, va dt Ienh ding 16 ban séng 5 sé phai ngin han séng 3, vi mc dt: nim trong séng tai dinh hose day gin nhét (xem Hinh 1.9). chéo, nhuing quy the s6 3 n6i ring, song 3 khéng bao gids A Nén ahé, nhitng kf thuét thi lp tin higu giao dich séng ngén nbit gita cic séng day 1, 3 va 5. Do dé, ban cé 4 day minh hoa cho tu duy than trong ma t6t thubng ép thé bat du gii ngin ting phan khi song 5 dang dién tin dung trong host dong giao dich “sin sing, ng, ngim, rng... vi bdn” (hay ngdm that kp trudckhi ban). Nhung rnéu ban la mot nha giao dich nang déng hon, thi lam thé nao dé thyc hign tin higu giao dich khi xuét higu ‘mu hinh s6ng chéo? Mot phuiong phép ning ddng hon SONG CHEO ‘Tal ng te it TH acta pdm lt > Hinb 1.10 ‘Neuén: Cc tn higu giao dich theo sing chéo Bay la céch giao dich cuc ky nang déng va do 46 mana Xing €¢ ri ro cao vi chura 06 sirxée nhén cua hanh . a ‘d6ng gi. Thyc hién hay khéng thy hién ky thuat “hitting ting Thien alm ale ‘a0 dich ny ho’n toa phy thude vao kha v iro a Hinh 19 ‘eda nha giao dich, C4 nhan ti, ngudi thue Hanh ‘Negus: Cc tn higu giao dich theo s6ng chéo‘CHONG 1: GIAT PHAU PHUONG PHAP GIAO DICH BANG SONG ELLIOTT ‘s6ng Elliott, Khong giao dich theo kj thuét nay vi ti la ngudie ngai ri ro - Chi thich ciia ngudi dich. Len diing I6 trong truémg hgp nay nén dit tai diém ‘ma séng$ khéng trd nén dai hon so v6i sng 3, vimé hinh séng chéo xic dinh ay la “dim mé inh khéng cé gid tri’ > SONG DANG ZIGZAG Cich du tién dé tham gia md vj thé khi ob dang séng Zigzag J gid phai phd vo dinh hose day cha séng liv] trong séng C. Litu¥, inh cia séng [iv] phai dm bio nim cao hon diy s6ng A trong thi triéng gid len hodc day sing liv] thép hon dinh cia song A trong thi trudng gid xudng (xem hiah 1.10). (Cich més vi thé thet hat Ia ch cho dén khi gid vuot qua dinh hofe déy cia séng B trac khi hanh dng (xem hin 1.12). Linh ditng 18 nén dat tai dinh hod day cia séng C. iy 1a phuong phap than trong hon so v6i cich lam du SONG ZIGZAG ‘hj tring ting it ‘Taj tang idm gid aa Hinb Lt (Gc tin Bib giao dich theo song Zigeag TIN HIBU GIAO DICH THEO SONG ELLIOTT ‘tin, nhim trén bat day va bin dink md khong c6 di bang ching xéc thu ‘VE ly tudng, cic nha giao dich sé sit dung cic hudng dn thiét lap tn higu giao dich trén va digu chinh cho phit hop w6i phong céch giao dich cita chin minh. Thc sy, sit ddyng mu hinh séng dang zigzag lam vi du, tham chi mot sha giao dich than trong cé thé phai ché dgi kha lau trutée ‘Khi tham gia mé vi thé va yeu cfu phai c6 chuyén dng nim s6ng vuot qua dinh hoc day cia sOng B trong mau hinh s6ng higu chinh.( xem Hinh 1.12) > SONG DANG PHANG (FLAT) Vi séng cubi cing trong sing higu chinh dang phing duige chia than nam séng, kf thuat thiét lap tin higu giao dich tulong ty nhut véi song dy: nghia la cher cho dé Khi gid ‘yigt dinh hode day cia song [iv] trong séng C dé tham gia giao dich (xem hinh 1.13). Lau y, phuong php nay khong duige sit dung vai séng higu chinh dang zigzag (trong 46 s6ng C cling duige chia thinh nam séng) vi ching han nbut Ta stng tg it fink 1.12 (Cac tn hig giao dich theo sing Zigzag Trieira aime 57CCHUONG 1: GIAI PHAU PHUONG PHAP G1AO DICH BANG SONG B1L107F ‘mot s6ng higu chinh zigzag trong thi tring tang gid, song. liv] cia sng C e6 thé nm dui dy cta s6ng A, trong khi di véi song higu chinh dang phing trong thi trudng ting si, séng liv] cia s6ng C thing 6 Khuynh huéng mdm tén day cia song A. SONG PHANG i @ a” 8 Tecéne naa Tee 4 Hinh 113 (Ce tn hig giao dich theo song ping > SONG DANG TAM GIAC Huéng din thiét Igp tin higu giao dich cudi cing la cho song higu chinh dang tam gic (xem Hinh 1.14), Sng tam gic lA dang chuyén dng gid di ngang, digc inh thinh bai hai dug xu hung hoi tu lai voi nhau va phan chia thinh che séng nh6 bén trong la A, B, C, D va E, Huldng dn thiét lip tin higu giao dich déi véi dang s6ng nay la chi cho dén hi gid phd vi dink ho8e ay cia song D. Biém it len ding 16 du tin la tai ddy hod dinh cita sng B. TR: khong khuya khich thc ign céc tin higu giao dich ning dOng di ‘v6i dang s6ng nay vi sing tam giéc thuding hay dn kia ban: Vi chting e6 thé xudt hign 6 sng 4, B hoge vi tr cia séng X, 58 1 HIBU GIAO DICH THEO SONG ELLIOTT nén tréng thi c6-vé la song 4 tam gide ting glé nhung thyc chit lai séng B tam gide giim gi. [Mot nha giao dich vi phong céch dau tu niing dong. chic chin sé thich mé vi thé tric khi gié pha v8 dinh hode diy cia séng D. Néu lam thé, t6i dé nghi sit dung dy bode dinh ciia séng A lam dim dat Iénh diing 16 du tién thay vi song C. Bigu may Ia do cfc thi trudmg o& phiéu hoe cic thi trudng cé thanh khoan that thuding xudt hign inh trang gid cham vio séng C va dio chiéu (do 46, dat nh ditng 16 tal ddy hoiie dinh cita song C la khOng an toan bai cde tin higu nhiu). SONG TAM GIAC i B Thieeaeng ana a ‘hinting oar a > Hin 114 (Ge tin hig giao dich theo song tam gide NHUNG VAN DE TRONG YEU THUONG B| PHOT LO - QUAN TRI RUI RO VA TAM LY GIAO DICH hi thio ludn im th€ nao dé tré than mot nha giao dich thanh céng bén vang, 6 hai yéut6 ma ban thing bd qua la qui trio vi tam I gio dich 59CHUONG 1: GIA LOI KHUYEN 1thy PHUONG PHAP GIAO DICH BANG SONG ELLIOTT Vi cha dé quan tr) riiro la eve ky quan CUANHA DAU TUT ‘72°8 cho thinh cong bén ving cia m6i THONG MINH tha giao dich, ching ta hay thdo lun di Kigm soat tam ly chat vé t) 1 loi nhugn/rdi ro va quy mé vi sgiao dich I chia ea Ka dé ethan“ i8odieh nha giao dich thanh 3 i: on ang ban varie > TY LBLOI NHUAN/RUIRO TYSOLOINHUAN/ thie do din gi med i 0 50 v6 RUIRO Ty 86 loi nhuan/ri rolatyle duoc str dung 48 so sanh ty suat sinh loi ky vong 80 v6i ri ro nhufan tiém ning cho méi giao dich. Néu ban sma c6 phigu XYZ vi gid 50 USD va kj vong ‘sé ting lén mtlc 51 USD, Igi nhugn tiém nang 18.1 USD. Néu Iénh diing 16 cho vj thé mua chap nay dit tai mic 49 USD ty 36 Ii nhuan/rai rnhan. Theo céch dng thong Ig, ty s6 loi nhuan/rii ro thé rola 1:1 - nghfa la ban chap nin dit cuge rbi 10 1 USD dé nhin vé Igi nhuén 1 USD. Néw hign theo s6 loinhuén gn diing 16 due dt tai 49,9 USD thi tp s6 kiém duge trén mot don vj rdi ro. 60 Tigi nhuan/rti x01 102. LUU ¥: Trong nguyén g6c tiéng Anh, thudt ngit ma chiing t6i dang dich Ia “le gi nhudn/riir0” la “risk/reward ratio” (tte néu dich sét ghia phi ty s6 “ri ro/loi nhuén”),nhuing ty s6 may thudng éutge bat du bing céch ghi loi nhuan & phia {rude vari ro nim 6 phia sau. Thuat ngit Risk - Reward thuéng rat dé gay nham ln. Theo chuain mye quée té, nén dich thuat ng nay I8 ri ro/ loi nhugn vi nguyén ban tiéng anh la Risk-Reward. Trong 46, ho quy ude cdch ghi con s6 TIN HIRU GIAO DICH THEO SONG ELLIOTT nguge li, ttc da con $6 lot nhuan ra trude. Vi du, Risk-Reward 10:1 tic la Ri ro (risk) [1 trong khi Lol Nhuan (Reward) 18 10. Tuy nhién, cée nha giao dich Viet Nam c6 théi quen doe ngugc lai, va goi a ty 16 oi inhu€n/rii ro - Chi thich ca ngudi dich. Vithé, trong vi dy nay, ri xo a1 va lgi nh [a 10, va by sé nay duige ghi la 10:1, chit khong phil ld. 1:10. Trong giao dich thye t,t loi nhudn/rii ro 4 mde 3:1 1a ding mong \iée va kha thi “TF Ie loi nbudn/ri ro cao la mot him cia xéc suit. Gi st ban cé6 71 giao dich than céng la. 70% va ty Ié loi nnhudn/rii ro cho méi giao dich la 1:1, Do dé, sau khi két thiic mudi Iugt giao dich, sé cb bay giao dich dugc chét vi gi nhufn 1 USD, trong khi 6 ba giao dich bj 15 1 USD. ‘Tong ket, ban lai 4 USD. Ban nght diéu gi sé xiy ra néu ching ta ting tj 1é loi nbugn/rii ro ti 1:1 lén 3:1 va gid ‘716 giao dich thanh céng tit 70% xudng cbn 40%? Voi ty 1 3:, hic nay Igi nbugn cho bén giao dich than cng sé la 12. USD (indi giao dich thanh cng lat 3 USD). Néu chiing ta tri 6 USD cho siu giao dich thua Ib (méi giao dich 16.1 USD), ban sé c6 Igi nhuan 6 USD. Su Khe bigt ny cho thay ty 1¢ Toi nbusinrit ro quan ‘trong nu thé nao khi gidm tf Ié giao dich thanh céng xusing ‘ein mot mia (tt 70% xuing 40%) trong khi ban ting tlt nnhuiin/rii ro lén sé Lam ting loi nhudn them 50%, Biga ma cic nha giao dich méi vio nghé thudmg hiéu nhm li ho phi QUY MO VI THE GIAO DICH [Nha giao dich nén thyc hign quy mé vj thé nhu thé nio cho mii giao dich? (Quy mo vi thé giao dich (Trade Size) dude higw Id mua hodic bin s6 long bao nhiéu c6 phiéu, bao mhiéu hop dng hay bao nhiéu lot (trong giao dich forex ~ chit thich ciia ngui dich), Ri ro cho mbi giao dich khdng bao gid ‘uige phép vuot qué 1-396 tng vén toan danh mye. Cée nha giao dich abo léthuémg vi pham cfc tf nay trong khi cée nha giao dich chuyén nghigp thudng tuén thi: ching Vi dy, néu sit dung mite ri ro cho mei giao dich fa 1% dt ‘vGi thi khodn 5.000 USD, ttic l anh ta chi duge phép dat ‘cuge ri ro 50 USD cho mdi vj thé. Trong khi dé, mét nha giao dich khdc cé tai khoan 10.000 USD cé thé thyc hién hai vj thé giao dich, véi m&i vi thé c6 rai ro 50 USD (téng hai vj thé c6 rai ro 100 USD). Nhiéu nha giao dich phai TIN HIEU GIKO DICH THEO SONG FLLIOTT 1 hd cube cho vi ho khong od tién ‘ ee * LOI KHUYEN trong tai Khon dé thyc hign cic vith€S GGA NHA DAU TU’ ‘quy m6 mong muén (bay néi céch Khsc, THONG MINH ho thuding giao dich véi mite ri ro vuat Cc nha giao dich nén han ché giao dich co ty Ie lot nhudn /rii ro duci 3:1 qué mie chju dving cta quy mé tai khoan hign cd). 'Néu ban 6 m@t ti khodn nh, ban e6 thé Khe phe vn may bing eich giao dich v6i quy m6 ‘vi thé nhé. Ban c6 thé chi giao dich vai hgp d6ng, giao dich mot 66 hop 4éng chi 6, hod thm chi la Gt s6 c6 phiéu penny. Loi ket, trén con dung tré than nha giao dich thank céng béa ving, ban pha nin ra miu chat phai sinh t6n lw di, NEu ri ro cho mi vi thé giao no dich véi dich IA tuong d6i nhé so v6i quy mo tai khoan cba ban, ban cb thé chiu dung duigc chuoi thua Ié kéo dai, Nguige lai néa ban dat cuge ri ro bing 25% t6ng tai khodn cho mdi lin giao dich, thi chi cfn chudi bén bvgt thua Ié lién tip, ban 8 bj ogi bd ra khi cud cho TAM LY GIAO DICH Mi di t6ixem quan ti ri rola yu 8 then cht cho giao dich thanh cng, nbuing chia khéa thule si Iai nim & tam If giao dich - nghia la chinh tim Ij cia ban {do Iuin mt s6 Khia can tim ly gin cic nha giao dich cb duge thinh cong bén ving dé li: thu mot phuong phép lun, thiéu kj luat, nhiing ky vong khong thyc té, va thiéu kién nn, Bit ké ban li mt nha giao dich chuyn nghiép hay chi aks tip vita mai bute chan vio thi trudmg, mau chit ng ta hay 63(CHUONG 1: GIAI PHAU PHUONG PHAP GIAO DICH BANG SONG ELLIOTT 64 {rdnén thanh céng la théu hia tm quan trong ctia tim cA nnhan dér thinh qua giao dich, > THIEU PHUONG PHAP LUAN [Néu ban dat myc tidu te thanh nha giao dich than cng bén wing, ban phai cé mét dink nghfa dom gin, r6 ring va stictich vé phutong phap giao dich khi tham gia vao céc thi trading, Thue st, vige ¢6 mot phuong phép giao dich quan. trong déa ndi ma nha sing lip cia cong ty EWI 1 Robert Prechter phi dat lén né lén du trong bat luda: “Dieu gi thes giip nha giao dich trd nén than cong” EWI la viét tat ca Elliott Wave International, mot trong nhing céng ty hang dau thé giét vé tw van thi ‘rung bang séng Eliott do Robert Prechter sing lap. Website: www.elliottwave.com - Cha thich cia gud dich. Bon m} va hanh dng theo cim xc bin ning khong hau ich trong dai han, Néu ban khong c6 mot phuong php lugn 16 rang, ban sé khOng biét tin higu mua hod bn thé nao 18 ding tin cy Lam thé no ban 06 thé khde phuc vin 48 nay? Lei gid cho cu hoi may la hay vit ra phutong phép giao dich cita ban. ina nghia bing cich viétra ning céng cu phan tich cia ban va quan trong hon la, ban sé sit dung chiing nhut thé nao. NO khéng phai la vin dé ban sit dung Nguyén Ly Song ElLott hay dé thi diém va hink, chi béo Stochastic, ST hod két hop céc céng cu trén. Vin dé la ban phai dua ‘The HIEU GIAO DICH THEO SONG ELLIOT aro rang vé cdi gh hinb thin nén tin higu mua, tfn higu bin va céch dit lénh ditng 18, céch di chuyén len ding 18 vi ning hung din dng vi ‘thé. Goi #6 nhat ma t6i dé nghi véi ban 1 bay dinh nghia phuong phap giao dich LOI KHUYEN CUA NHA DAUTU" THONG MINH Giao dich thanh cong di héi phai cé triét ly giao dich ro rang va ky luat dé tuan thé no. ciia ban bing céch sau: Néu ban khong thé viet n6 vita trong thé bai e6 kich 60 3 inch x 5 inch, thi phuong phép cia ban qua phe tap. inch bang 2.54 em. Tic ban phai ghi phuong phap ugn ra tém gidy 06 kich thuée 8 om x 12 em - Chi thich eda ngudi dich. > rHIEU KY LUAT Mot khi ban 4a dinh nghia 16 ring vi xée dinh duge phuiong phép giao dich, ban phi c6 kj luat tuan thi hé ‘théng, Thigu kj lust giao dich 1 sai lém phé bign thi hai cia nhiéu nha giao dich c6 nhiéu mong wéc. Néu cich ban xem d6 thi gif hode dinh gid céc tin higu giao dich tiém nang ngiy hom nay khéc véi cach ban da lam céch day mot thang, 4iéu d6 cho thay ban khéng hé xic dinh 16 phutang phap giao dich hoc thiéu kj luat dé tuin theo hg théng giao dich ctia ban. Cong thitc thanh cng la pha kien dinh dp dung véi mot phutong php giao dich da duge kigm chiing thank cng. 65CCHUONG 3: GLAI PHAU PHIUONG PHAP GIAO DICH BANG SONG ELLIOTT > NHUNG KY VONG THIEU THYC TE Khong digu gi lam t6i tic gidn hom la nhitng edu quang cdo sai sx that cia nhitng ga kink doanh dei logi nh" Moe thé giao dlc tri gid 5.000 USD @ Kh Gas Tu Nhién sbi thank han 40.000 USD" Kia quang céo nay la nhtng kigu ta do, choi him rat phé bign trong ngink tai chinh va kétcuc khign cho cle nha du tu thiéu kién thie phai thua 1é hon 5.000 USD cho vi thé ny. Ngodi ra, nhiing gé kinh doanh quing cio tao nn nhiing tim fy x bai cc kj-vong khong hop I. ‘Vang, c6 thé ban dat duigc ty sudt sinh Igi cao hon mute binh quan chung, Tuy nhién, digu dé sé ching ¢6 nhiéu ¥ nghia néu nhut ben chp nhén mute ri LOI KHUYEN ro cao hon mie trang bink. Vi thé, dé CUANHADAUTU 1a miic ty suit sinh Ioi ky vong hop If THONG MINH cho nha giao dich trong nim giao dich Hay 6 ky vong thc 16. Vidy, myc tieu cla ‘céc nha giao dich moi khdi sula dimg dé bi mat tién trong nm giao dich dau tien. NOL cach khde, chi c&n dat duge ty suat sinh Iai (0% trong nim giao dich dau tien, 66 du tien: 50%, 100% ho¥e 200%? Woa! Hay kiém ché ning ky vong khong hop ly. Theo quan diém cia ti, myc tiéu cho mi nha giao dich trong nim du tién li khong bi mat tién, N6i céch Khe, hy at ra mye tiéu loi nhuan 0% cho nam giao dich dau tien. Néu ban c6 thé lam duige digu nay trong hai nim, sau 46 ‘mdi c6 ging dinh bai chi s6 Dow va S&P, [Nhiing muc tiéu nay khong hé xa vi ma rat thycté > THIEU KIEN NHAN- 1L6i tam ly tht tu ma ngay c4 mot nha giao dich lau nim cing gip phai la thigu kién nhan, Theo Edwards va Magee TW HIEU GIAO DICH THEO SONG ELLIOT trong cubn sich kinh dién Phin Tick K¥ Thudt vé Xu Huténg Chitng Khodn (Technical Analysis of Stock Trends), th trudng chi c6 khoding 30% thai gian cé xu hung. Diga ay c6 nghia 70% thai gian, thi trudng kh6ng cé xu hung, “Xéc sud nhd nay cé thé gil thc tai sa0 to tin ring, & ‘bt cit hung thai gian no, cfing chi c6 hai hoc ba ca hoi giao dich thu sy tt. VI du, néu ban la mot nha giao dich dai han, thu si ci e6 hai hodc ba dat s6ng dui t6t dé giao dich m6i nim, Tuong ty, néu ban li nha giao dich ngin han, chi 6 hai hodc ba tin higu giao dich c6 d@ tin ely cao 8 giao dich méi tun, Rat thuding xuyén, v1 giao dich ti chinh bin than né von di rt hap dn (va bat ci thé gi lién quan én tién éu ‘it cudn hit), nén dé hiéw tai sao ban sé cim thay h6i tiée kkhi bé lo tht gi d6 néu nhu ban khéng giao dich, Két qua 18, ban bat déu thye hign nhatng tin higu giao dich 6 46 tin cay thap va trd nén giao dich qua mic Lim thé nio dé Khdc phuc tinh thigu kién nhin? Hay nhac ban ring mdi tudn ludn sé c6 mét “cit giao dich cia nim’ Néi cach Khe, diing lo ling vi da bd 16 ca hoi giao dich ngiy hém nay, vi ngay mai, tudn ti va thing {i... sé €6 eo hoi dnb cho ban... Toi cam doan véi ban digu nayl 7(CHUONG I: GIAI PHU PHUONG PHAP GIAO DICH BANG SONG ELLIOTT CAC THONG TIN B6 SUNG Ban doc cé thé tham khao cc tai ligu khdc trong Reader Resources theo dung link w.elliottwave.comiwavel dey Resouces. Trong phan nay, ban sé nhin thy cubn sich onkne c6 ten “Elliott Wave Principle (Nguyén Ly.Séng Elliott” ciia Frost va Prechter, cling w6i cc bai hoc vé phan tich séng Elliott, fam thé ndo dé giao dich theo ting ‘miu hinh song cu thé, va lam thé nao sit dung lz | Fibonacci va cic chi bao ky thust Khe nhim Ble "Tyga ting niém tin cia ban khi ép dung Nguyén 1 Song Elliott vao giao dich thy té a Xem thé video v8 tim ‘quan trong cia Kid hie 1 Bj ude trong hoat déng giao dich 68 ‘TIN HIBU GIAO DICH THEO SONG ELLIOTT KIEM TRA KIEN THUC CUA BAN ‘Hiay tra lai cdc céu hdi san theo hai dép an BUNG/SAT: 1. Phin tich va Giao Dich c6 cling chung céc kf ning. 2. Phin tich Séng Elliott xc dinh huéng cia xu huéng chinh dya teen huéng cha céc séng diy. 3. Nguyén Ly Séng Elliott chi ra cho céc nha giao dich nhiing diém duge goi la “diém mé hinh khong c6 gid, ‘tri’, 6 dé chiing ta biét rang cach dém séng hién tai la sai va phi phan tich Ia. 4, Séng 2 e6 thé thos li niu hom 100% séng 1 5, Chu ky séng Elliott hoan chinh gém 9 séng. 6. Tit diém bat dau dén diém két thic, séng 2 va séng 4 mang lai che ea hi giao dich o6 d6 tin cy cao, 7. Phuong phdp giao dich ning dong di véi miu hinh song chéo la chi dgi diém phé vo dinh hodc day séng 4. 8, Néw ban tim kiém sf xe nhén cha hinh dong gid, thi hay dé cho thi truéng ra lénh cho ban triéc khi ban ra lénh cho thi trutng. 9, Huéng din thiét lap tin higu giao dich 4é giao dich cho s6ng dang zigzag i ch dicho dé kh gid ph vo dink hodc day cia séng B. 10. Tj 86 loi nbugn/rii ro 1 aly tangs 69PHAN 2 NHUNG Vi DU ~ GIAO DICH _ THUC TIENBU Se (ya ane a Rees see ern THEO SONG ZIGZAG VA SONG PHANG NEV aieiasy el NHUAN TU SONG DAY TIER THEO :(CHONG 2: HUONG DAN THIET LAP TIN Ht ‘GIAO DICH THEO SONG Z1G2A6 VA SONG PHANG NHAM TIM KIEM LOL NHUAN TU SONG BAY TIEP THEO 74 (0 BA PHAN THEN CHOT GUA MOT GIAO DICH THANH CONG LA: phan tich 46 thi gi, xty dng ké hoach giao dich, va quan tr giao dich, Do dé, _mbivi du trong chuiong nay déu dugetién hanh qua ba bud. vi DY GIAO DICH THEO SONG HIEU CHINH ZIGZAG 6 C6 PHIEU CATERPILLAR (MA CAT) Gi cé phiéu Caterpillar (ma CAT), chiing ta sé kiém tra m6i ‘thanh phén cla mét giao dich dé hiéu tai sao CAT o6 tin higu giao dich v6i dé tin cy cao, > 1. PHAN TICH BO THI GIA (Ching tart d8 dang dé nhan ra cc tin ign giao dich tren 46 thy gid cia CAT tt théng 4.2011 d&n thang 5.2011. Nhu ban ‘thy trong Hin 2.1, gid gidm tit mite 116,55 xuting 108,39 ‘vi binh thinh nim s6ng. Mau hinh séng nay 1 quan trong vi song diy xée dinh huiéng cia xu hudng Kin hem (song (1) hdc séng (A)). Do 46, et sut gidm nm s6ng miy déi véi CAT him ¥ sé cin mot dat gid khéc theo séng (C) hod -6ng (3) khi gi pha thing déy 108,39, ‘Dat héi phuc nhd sau d6 di vi c6 phiéu CAT dién ra theo ba séng ting ho gi thuyét niy. Hanh dng gié nguge xu hung chinh thuéng dign ra theo ba sing, vi thé toi Kj vong CAT con mét dot gidm gid Khéc. Hon na, ba sing ting cia CAT dén mite gid 112,47 tong ding v6 tf 18 hoi ‘phuc Fibonacci 50% so vii dot gdm tride 46, TY 1e 50% HON VIDU Giso Dick THY THEN smc h6i phyc ph6 bign trong cdc sing higu chinh. N6 cing gin v6i mite 112,84, f mit gid ma chigu dai song C sé bing (0,618 lin chiéu dai song A. 61.8% la tf Ie Fibonacci ph6 big sila song C va song A trong mau hinh song higu chinb, TIEU DIEM ‘Céu héi hic nay 1a ligu dot séng ting tit Cc séng day xe . Hot song Hing inh xu huéng 6 cp dy 108,39 Iém 11247 nén ge inh nhin G9 gang lon hom te 1a sing (B) hay séng (2). Tw quan diém giso theo dich ngin han, clu h8i nay Ib Khéng quan trong vi dit dan nhin theo cich no dint, snc tigu gid cha dot gldm tip theo Is dugiTIEU DIEM 58 Chait ig Awan eitiine CaM dng #4 ne gin hon nay cho thy; dd d6c cia sing C thuéng bao gdm ba la tip hon so v6i sing A. DG de thép hon S69 cita sing C cho thiy da ting gi momentum) i out gidm, 18 diy higu cho thay xu hung sgidm Kin hon dang tr Ii, D6 d6cthip hon SONG ZIGZAG 4 song C so vi song A trong séng vcr Zigzag loai séng higu chinh don gién gom ba séng A-B-C. dang xuat hign. Trong d6, cau tric ‘Bing céch dp dung phan tich sing Elliott s6ng con nhu sau: : CAT ti nhgn rani. ‘Séng A (5 s6ng), séng ho d6 th giteia CAT, t8inhin ramimsing Fee a song C (6 séng). bigw hign phé bign cho thay dang sing nay git va ba song ting cé méi quan hé véi nnhau theo t71¢ Fibonacci va me khing ox nm & ving 112,47-112,84 Cu tric song Eliott dé nghi kh ning cao sé c6 dot sut gidm isi day ci 108,39 ti mile gi hign tai, Vi thé, cfu hai hic nay la chiing ta Khai théc théng tin niy nhui thé nto. 75© DAN THIET LAP TIN HIEU GIAO DICH THEO SONG Z1GZAG VA SONG PHANG NHAM TIM KIEM LGI NHUAN TO SONG BAY TEP THEO NHONG VI DY GiAo DICH THC THEN pein fw tt Spite susan ogni hinst If “4 seeps —- cs | ™ yr . * Ayo mee wr, Y 7 ae oe ae sare epee eS 4 Hinh 2.1 - D6 thi 15 phat cia Caterpillar Inc ‘BS thi ds in Lai vb su cho php cha Bloomberg. Bin quyén 2013 cia Bloomberg LP Bai quyén dt dul bdo i. > 2, XAY DUNG KE HOACH GIAO DICH ‘Trong hinh 2.2, 01 thy hign tin higu giao dich nay bing hap dng quyéa chon. Cu thé ti di mua mudi hop 46ng quyéa chon bin vio ngiy 10 thing 5 nm 2011 ta gd thyc hign 110 i mic pht 86 cent mai c6 phiu (Mot hop déng quytn chon c6 100 c6 phitu, nen chi phi cia mot hop ding guy clon 1a 0,86x100=86, mul hap déng quyén chon sé 1a 860 USD - Chi thick cia nguidi dich). Cie hap dng. 3. QUAN TRI GIAO DICH gay sau ngiy t6i thu hign phan tich va xée inh diém sd vi thé, CAT gm dot ngot (xem Hinh 2.3), Két qua la 1 thé cia t6i ngay ap tite c6 mot khoan Iai Khé. Mie dt ban 6 thé than trong ch6t lai toan b§ hose it hit mét phan vi thé nay ngay Kkhi va e6 khoiin Iai khé Ién, Tuy nbién, vi phan tich ban du cho thy kha ning dot giim gid nay sé phi thing day 108,39 nén t6i quyét dinh tigp tuc ndm git vi thé, 6th sphitcis 48 0 hap dng apis in ng S201 ‘atorpilarine| races Ov . 4 Hinh 23 - D6 thj 15 phiit cia Caterpillar Inc 16 th; dug in lat vi su cho phép cia Bloomberg. Ban quyén 2013 cia Bloomberg LP Bin quyén da dtige bao hi. ‘rong cfc ngiy tgp theo, CAT tip tac gidm xuéng séu han, Vao thi séu, ngay 13 théng 5 nam 2011, 161 quyét dinh 1. PHAN TICH DO THI GIA ‘Vao thang 3 nim 2012, t6i nhn ra mot miu hhinh d6 thj tiém ning cia Techne Corp (ma TECH) oé thé din ra s6ng higu chinh dang bit binh thudng (expanded flat) (xem Hinh 2.5). Cu thé, diéu toi dang 4é mat tila dot ‘ting gid g6m ba sdng tit 68,84 dén 71, duige theo sau bai mot gt sot giam ba sing vé mite 67,69. 80 NHONG VE Dy Giao picH THYC THEN ne s sige Ml hanr py hel 7 6¥jophiteia > \ 4 Hinh 2.5 -Bé thi 60 phuit cha Techne Corporation ‘BS thi dug in li vi su cho phép cia Bloomberg. Ban quyén 2013 cia Bloomberg LP Bir quyén da dug bao hd. (Chuditing-gidm nay la quan trong vi chi é hal ma hin sng Hot thE use SP TG: Song bse dung: hoc Ia dang bét thug hodc la tam inh thudng [a mot side ign tuc (running triangle). Hay xem dgt dang séng hiéu chinh gom ba séng AB-C. Trong 46, cau tric ‘SONG BAT BINH tang gis tigp theo da cé bén trong nim séng yeu en cia mot sng dy cho thy kh ming sng con ben trong le «a0 sé dif ra kich bins shdang —Séng A (3 s6ng), séng « binh thing tren &6 thi e6 phiéu' TECH. — B (8'86ng) va séng C (5 s6ng). Dac diém nnhén ra séng bét binh thug la diém két thc séng 8 vuat qua » 2. XAY DUNG KEHOACH diém khéi dau cua GIAO DICH neh Dua ten gid thiét song higu chinh dang bit binh thudng dang dién ra d6i voi TECH, 101 xy dying mot K€ hogch giao dich, trong dé bén 100 e6 phigu khi gid pha 81(CHUGNG 2: HUGNG DAN THIET LAP TIN HIEU GIAO DICH THEO SONG ZIGZAG VA SONG PHANG NHAM TIM KIEM LOINHUAN TC SONG DAY TIEP THEO ‘thing diy cia sng iv) ta 69,28 (nem Hinh 2.6). Nhu 48 cép ‘&Cintong 1, huéng din mei mov thé giao dich 46 voi sng hhigu chinh dang phing la tham gia Khi gl pha thing dink hoe diy cia sing 4 trong s6ng C. Phuong php thin trong, nay gdp ban Khong o6 ging bin din hoBc it diy. a TIT 4 Hinh 2.6 - D6 thj 60 phiit ciia Techne Corporation 6 th dig in lai vist cho phép ca Blooraberg. Ban quyén 2013 cia Bloomberg L.P Ban quyén di duge bdo hd. ‘Vio nhitng ngiy tip theo sau ngay ti thy hién phan tich trén, TECH tiép tuc ting len mic gid 70,78 (xem Hinh 2.7). Vi miic din cao nhit tnd 46 cia séng (ii) Ia 70,80 rnén séng (v) bi thit bai, Khi mét song khéng tao ra dinh cao hon hoi dy thap hon, phan tich sng Elliott goi dy la séng cut. Vid, song (v) trong mét edu tr sing Elliott binh ‘hung sé cao hon inh séng (ii) hoc thép hon day sng (ii) trasic 6. Khi c6 dang séng cut, cho thay ép lic ting hoe idm cia xu huténg hign tala cdn rit manh, Nhuing ngay ci chi gp dang s6ng cut, cich thtic md lémh giao dich vim dig sid nguyen: tic bin 100 6 phiéu tai mute gid 69,28. 82 j 1NHONG VI DY GIAO DICH THYC TIEN Bin s00 pits mie 6 cre 4 Hinh 2.7 - D6 thi 60 phiit cia Techne Corporation A thi dg in lai vd su cho phép cia Bloomberg Bn quyén 2013 cia Bloomberg LP Bin quyén a dui bo. ‘Sau ki dat din tal mite gié 70,78, TECH di chuyén di _ngang (xem Hiinh 2.8). Loai hin dong gid nay cing cing c6 gid thit dang s6ng cut va dutgc ting ho boi miu hinh tam sidc dang xudt ign & trong s6ng (iv). Cc dang s6ng tam sidc thuémg xudt hign trong song (iv), s6ng B hodc sng X, tic thuding xay ra truéc song cu6i cing trong song dy. Do 4, tit hit dt cuge vo gid tht sng hieu chinh dang bit binb thing dang hin thinh, céc hinh dng gid ngén hen aut tam gidc cing ting ho kich ban nay. Vi thé, dy I ic toi ‘rd nén ning dong hon bing cich nang mic gié ban tt 69,28 Jen 695, tic tai day cia sing c trong song (i). 83(CHUGNG 2: HUONG DAN TiNET LAP TIN HIBU GIAO DICH THEO SONG ZIGZAG VA SONG PHANG NHAN TIM RIEM LOL NHUAN TO SONG DAY THEP THEO. i ty ‘Teche Corporation a etisoohiia fr om i a # z = ree 84 4 Hinh 2.8 - Bé thj 60 phit cita'Techne Corporation 6 thi cig in lai visu cho php cta Bloomberg. Bin quyén 2013 cix Bloomberg LP. Bin guyén da dude bdo. ‘Nhutban c6 thé thy trong Hinh 2.9, han dong gi tiép theo cia ¢6 piu TECH khong dién ra ging nh ky vong ching ‘a phan tich, N6 khéng din ra theo dang tam gid. Tuy nig, céch dn nan séng xéc dink mic gid 70.78 la s6ng (v) that bai dung nhet van cén ding. Lénh bain tai nic gi 69,50 duige kich hoat vio ngiy 4 thing 4 nim 2012, ‘Gi lénh ding 16 ban du dit tai 70,66. "Tai sao lai dat len ding 1 & day? Vi day chink la mite dink cha séng fi). Mt trong be quy tic tr c6t cia song ay 18 sing hai khong bao {36 diac phép thos lai vugt qué 100% chiéu dai sng mot. Do dé, néw nhit séng [ii] dang dign ra binh thutng dé tao rnén séng [ii], n6 khong duige phép ting vat qué mite inh, 70,66 cia sng ii, NHONG Vi DU GlAo DICH THYC THEN 6thi 60 phiteda ‘echo Corporation ey, a “a » ow ehaunghSestts OEE 4 Hinh 2.9 - D6 thi 60 phiit cta Techne Corporation ‘BS th duge in la vb echo phép cia Bloomberg. Bn quyén 2013 cia Bloomberg LP Ban quyén da du bio ho. ‘Vang, thls, sau ki ching 181 md vi thé giao dich may, 6 phiéu TECH lién tue tao céc dy méi (xem Hinh 2.10) Hom nia, hanh dng gi ctia TECH xudt hign khodng trng sidm gid vio ngiy 9 thang 4. Khodng tring gié thud xudt hhign khi kung gid cia thanh gid (chénb lech dinh va déy cha thanh gid) hign tai Khong nim trong khung gid cha thank ‘gid trudic 46, Trén quan digm sng Elliott, Khodng tring gié thudng xust hign 6 trong s6ng ba - dic bet la trong séng ba ciia song ba - vi dé la khi gid sé di chuyén nhanh trong mét thai gian ngin, Céc nha phan tich ky thudt 6 dién goi loai khong tr6ng nay la khoang trng accelation, Khoang tr®ng Accelation Gap thudng duge goi la Runaway Gap hay Measuring Gap, la khong trong xual hign 6 gia xu huéng. Ngudi Viét khong dich tén. cea ca khong trong nay ma gid’ nquyén ban g6e tiéng Anh - Cha thich cla nguei dich. 85(CHUONG 2: HUONG DAN THIET LAP TIN HIBU GIAO DICH THEO SONG ZIGZAG VA SONG PHANG NHAM Tin KIEM LOI NHUAN TU SONG BAY TIEP THEO 86 ss eueoontc ese Comaron : s 4 ia jn fii = o w 4 Hinh 2.10 - D6 thj 60 phuit cia Techne Corporation ‘BA th; dug in Iai vd su cho phép cia Bloomberg. Bn quyén 2013 cia Bloomberg L.P Ban quyiin da dud bdo h. > 3. QUAN TRI GIAO DICH Vi gi dang giao dich & du6i mic gié ma vj thé 69,50 vio gly 10 thing 4, day a thd diém t6t dé hg mute dling 6 cho lfnh bin khéng vé mic hda vén ti 69,50. Digu quan trong la céc nha giao dich khOng nhiing tap trung vao viée giao djch ma cbn phai quan ti ri xo th4t t6t. C6 ba thong ‘ip 6 day la: phim thiéu ri 10, lai bo ri ro va bio vélgt shud hign cb. Hinh 2.11 cho thfy o6 phigu TECH dang chiu dp Ive idm gid. Tuong ty, ssut gidm stu sau &é cho phép ching ta hia 16 hon téc déng cia khodng tring gidm gid xudt hign vio ngiy 9 thing 4. Day IA khodng tring breakaway (dy 1a hong trng thug ut hitn 0 du mi xu hung - (Chi thich cia ngui dich) chit khong phi Ia Khodng tréng acceleration, HONG VIDU GIAO DICH THYC TIEN éthjeopnitcis Bin oni Tecne Copaton engl ane as » oy he fs ee B ™ 4 Hinh 2.11 - Bé thi 60 phat cia Techne Corporation ‘6 thi duc in li vd sucho phép cia Bloomberg. Ban guyén 2013 cla Bloomberg LP Bin quyén da dg bio hd ‘Thong thug, céc nha phan tich kj thudt chia khong ‘r6ng thanh ba loa: breakaway, acceleration, va exhaustion (chodng tréng kiét sic). Trén quan digm s6ng Elliott, ban nén biét ring, khodng tréng breakaway thydng xudt hign trong séng ba cia sng mét, khoang tréng acceleration thug xudt hin 6 séng ba cia séng ba vA khoding tring kigt sic thug xudt hign & sng ba cia song nim. (Ching ta bay gid c6 thé ha thip lenh ding 1b vé mite 69,03. Mie gid ny tuong ding v6i dinh cia séng ii nhd dé cho phép chiing ta bdo vé mot Khon lgi nhun nhé. Hon nila, Kénh ding 16 nay dii xa mite gié dang duige giao dich hign tai. Diéu nay gp ta tranh khong bi cham lénh ditng 16 «qu sém tric khi cd phiéu tao dy. [Nh lai v€ vn 46 quan tr} ri ro: Thong qua giao dich ny, ching ta cb thé higu duige ba nguyén tfc: gidm thiéu rit +, loai bri ro vi bio vé Ioi nbudn ign c6. Khi vi thé giao 87(CHUONG 2: HUONG DAN THIET LAP TIN HIBU GIAO DICH THEO SONG ZIGZAG VA SONG PHANG NHAM Tha KIEL 88 6 1nj40 pinitcia NHUAN TU SONG BAY TIEP THEO dich hign tai bit 4éu duige kich hoat, enh ding 18 di tai 70,66. Kbi gid gidm xuéng theo hung cé loi cho giao dich nay ching ta ha lénh ding 16 vé mite hda vn. Khi git tgp tuc gidm su6ng stu hon nda, ching ta ha dn dn enh ding 16 tit digm hoa vn 69,50 xusng 69,03 va sau d6 1d 68,15 (xem Hinh 2.12). 4 Hinh 2.12 - Dé thj 60 phiit cia Techne Corporation ‘i th; dein lak scho php cia Bloomberg Bin quyén 2013 eta Bloomberg LP Ba quyén da dc bdo ho. Sau dy 1a mgt s6 kink nghion giip ban de len ditng 16t hon: Vi dat gidm gid theo séng day dang xuat hign trong {rudng hyp citao6 phiéu TECH, nén dinh cia dao dng gi tru6e 46 tao nén diém dling 15 hop ly. Trén quan diém cha s6ng Eliott, tng dinh hode day nay o6 Khuynh hudng la cia s6nghai hodc séng bén. Trong vi du ny, ching ta dang ha Ienh ditng 16 vé mie 67,85, la dinh cia s6ng bén nhé (xem Hinh 2.13) NHONG VI DY GIAO DICH Taye TIEN meta, a cbes oe ae ery Nm ¥ ye \A 44 Hinh 2.13 - Dé thj 60 phat cia Techne Corporation ‘6 th duoc in li vt su cho phép cia Bloomberg. Bén quyén 2013 cia Bloomberg LP. Bain quyén da dugc béo hp. ‘Dot ting gid nho g6m ba song tit 66,60 len 67,85 dutge xem IA s6ng b6n cia TECH. Van d ching ta edn hodi nghi 1 dp d6 sng cba né, Nhu ban o6 thay trong Hinh 2.13, ‘i dinh nhan day 1 séng (Iv) trong s6ng [ii]. Nhuing cing 6 mét céch dénh nhan khdc iy la séng liv]. Cho dit inh nhan theo cich nao di ching nia, kt qui sau dé cing ging hau. Gié nén phé thing d4y 66,60 dé tao nén séng nim. INO cé thé la s6ng (~) ciia séng [ui] hodc sing [v] cba séng3. Sit kehdc bit trong ci hai cich dinh nnhan séng khong pha 18 vin 4. Tat nhign, Agt gldm gid theo ng day gtd LOI KHUYEN CUA NHA DAU TU'THONG MINH dang xuat hién, dinh ciia cde dao 1, PHAN TICH BO THI GIA ‘Vao di thing 4 nim 2008, Béla Uc gidm tit dink thang 2 ‘vé mitc déy théng 3 theo ba séng (xem Hinh 2.16). Quan sit kj hon, méi séng giim gid lai dige chia thinh ba ‘song nhé hon bén trong. Do 46, cfu trie nay duige xée inh la Zigzag Doi hon la Zigzag, va né duige dn nan 18 (W)-09-(¥), trong 45 (W) vi (¥) Ia viét tét cho ba sng gidm A-B-C. Séng (X) duige goi la séng néi, cing 186m 6 ba song. ‘Mu hinh séng higu chinb nay cho ring, xu hung lin thon cia Data Uc vin la ting gid va dot ting gi trong thing 3 chiic chan sé vot dinh thang 2 nm 2008 tai 0,9366. | i | | | | ; NHONG VIDY GIAO DICH AVC THEN 4 Hinh 2.16 - Bé thi ngiyy eiia AUD/USD ‘BG thi duge in lai visu cho phép cia Bloomberg. Bin quyén 2013 cia Bloomberg LP. Bdn quyén da duge bdo hd » 2, XAY DUNG KE HOACH GIAO DICH 1Ké hoach giao dich dua trén gii thfch vé mu hinh sng 4iéa chin dang Zigzag Doi 1a mua hap dng twong lai cia AUD/USD tai mite 0,9180 véi mic diing 18 ban du tai 0,9080 (xem Hinh 2.17). Hon na, myc tiéu ting gié 0.9430 1a mae gid ma chidu dai séng 3 bing 1,618 lin chiéu dai séng 1. Giao dich nay nhanh chéng cho thiy ¢6 Jai vi phe mua dang kiém sost thi trading vio ngly 7 thing 4 nim 2008, duige thé hign bing gié dong cta gén véi dinh ‘ao nhit cia thanh gid. Thc sy bén mua di kiém soat thi trudng trong bén ngiy lien tép. 93‘CHUONG 2: HUONG DAN THIET LAP TIN HIBU GIAO DICH THEO SONG 216ZAG VA SONG PHANG NHAM TIM KIEN! LOI NHUAN TU SONG DAY TIEP THEO (ee tt JL aunasaineoonzbor alnatbe 4 Hinh 2.17 - D6 thy ngay cha AUD/USD ‘Dé thi dug in lai vi su cho phép cha Bloomberg. Ban quyén 2013 cia Bloomberg L.P Bain quyén da duge bdo hd gu quan trong cn nhé: Mac di t6i inh nhan dt ting ‘4 thang 3 nm 2008 fa 1-2 (mita 46), ning khong nén voi ving khing dinh dy la song I vi séng?2. Nén hd, chi duy nht mgt diéu c6 thé xe nh cich dém song hh ding gié. Cho {iki c6 sxe nin, thi mga ci cich inh nhan hop If nat, Dat ke ao Khit ning ding nit, van khong chic chin sf to thin sy thu, Vidu, vin 06 mét ch inh nhan Kc cho dot ‘ng gi thing3 nim 2008 la ba séng A-B-C cia songphinglin hon hoiiccia mau hinh song higu chinh ph tap ndo Khéc. Tay nin, bt kéla ding hay sai, ban 6 thé din gid mit giao dich 6 nén dug thy hig hay khéng dua trén tft huni x0 va tin thit chit ché cic quy tic quan tr iro > 3. QUAN TRI GIAO DICH [Nhitng ngiytigp theo sau khi vi thé giao dich nay duige md, Ss NHONG Vf DY GlAo DICH THUG TIEN éng Béla Ue tigp tuc leo lén mite dinh cao 0,9267 (xem Hiinh 2.18). Mie di dotting gid may duige hd tro bat} vong. ting gid, nbung gid Khong ting dt) manh 48 cho phép ti ninghodc thu hep lénh diing]8, Do dé, lénh ding 6 vin duy tid mic 0,080. waageayen t “ SS rrrSr—r— i oe cs geet pe ‘i Nl ite f itt i a : 4 Hinh 2.18 - D6 thi ngiy cia AUD/USD ‘BS th duge in la vi eu cho phép cia Bloomberg. Bin quyén 2013 cia Bloomberg LP Ban quyn ds duge bdo ‘Hanh dong gi sau 46 cho thay Bola Uc 6 thé dat dink {i]t 0.9267 (xem Hinh 2.19). Trong nhiing ngay sau dé, <éng Béla Uc gidm 140 pips xudng cdn 09127. ‘rong fotex. pip dugc hiu la met bute gid nhé nha. Vi ‘dy néuty gid AUD/USD giém gia th 0.9267 xusng con 0.9266, nga la giém 0,0001 va moi ngudi gol dé a7 pip. Néu gid giém 0,0140, moi ngudi ggi dé la 140 pip, ‘wong ting cdn 0.9127 - Chi thich ota ngubi dich. 95(CHUONG 2: HUONG DAN THIET LAP TIN HIBU GIAO DICH THEO SONG 216246 VA SONG PHANG NHAM TIM KIEM LGI NHUAN TU SONG BAY TIEP THEO ‘ay la mie sut gidm tong ting 1.519% trong hai ngay (mot mie gidm kh Ién), va ngay lip tic goi cho t6i ¥ tuding sng giim gid ln c6 thé quay tr Iai, Nhuing diéu ngin toi khong chap nn kich ban tigw cu Id vio ngay 14 thang 4, ‘tic ngay sau dt giim nhanh 140 pip, ¢6 théng tin quan trong ti gid déng cia cta than gié ngly. Gia déng cita cia hop dng thing 6 la 6 mite 0,9166. Batis... L : ‘ 4 hee UU ion 72088 ‘ating afi 9080 Ss ae aa a a 4 Hinh2.19 - D6 thi ngiy cia AUD/USD ‘6 th ua in lai vi echo php cia Bloomberg. Ban quyén 2013 cia Bloomberg LLP. Ban quyén da dug bao hi. ‘Dei véi ti, ci riéng thong tin vé gid déng ota khong 6 gi la quan trong, Nhung bing céch két hop vét dat ligu inh cao nhit va day thap nhit cia ngiy hom 46, lin lugt la 0,9192¥40,9127, t6inhén ra gid déng cifa ct thanh gid ngay da nim 6 nia ten 50% cia khung gid ngiy. Néw phe ban vin dang tigp tuc kim sodt thi trating vio ngiy 14 thang 4, thi gid dng cita ngay chic chin s& nim & 20% hog thm ché HONG VI DY GIAO DICH THUC THEN 10% ving day khnung gid ngay, chi khéng phai cao hon 50% Ikhung gid ngiy. Phan tich ting thanh gi riéng lé tr nn chin xe vio ngly 16 thing 4 khi d6ng ola Uc ting lén mite 0,9334. "Toi khong ngac mhién vi sy ting gid ndy va ning leah ding 16 Ién mite 0.9170 nhim thu hep ri ro xu6ng cin 10 pips, ho¥e 100 USD cho mbi hop déng (xem Hinh 220), asa ae eT upmuso ng 6/2008 99180, i ing Bai CHT gf ada eal al 4 Hinh 2.20 - B6 thi ngay cha AUD/USD_ 1 th duge im li vist cho phép cia Bloomberg. Ban quyén 2013 cia Bloomberg LP. Ban quyén da duge béo hi. gay sau khi déng cita ngiy ting gid man tai 09359 vio ngly 21 thang 4, ti tiép tue nang Kenh ditng 15 mot Kin infa én mic 0.9230, ie da bio vé mot phin nbd foi nhugn cho vi thé nay (xem Hinh 2.21), 97CCHUONG 2: HUONG DAN THIET LAP TIN HIEU GIAO DICH THEO SONG ZIGZAG VA SONG PHANG NHAM Tha KIEM 101 NHUAN TU SONG BAY TIEP THEO. ‘NuoMso, $éag3=1erGxSéng 14D... 8 goon | } poesia * f : ‘t Tana age tat Oses 4 Hinh 2.21 -Dé thi ngay cia AUD/USD ‘thi cc in lai 98st cho php cts Bloomberg. Ban quyin 2013 cia Bloomberg L.P Ban quyén da dag bdo hd ‘Trong nhiing ngay tip theo, déng Bola Uc da dat duige muc tigu gid 0,9430. Va ngay 24 thang 4, vi thé da cham phai lénh diing 6 tai 0,9354, twang ting lgi nbuin thu vé la 1.740 USD méi hgp déng, tte 8.700 USD cho nam hop dng (xem Hinh 2.22). Vio ngay d6ng Bola Ue cham phaii mite gid 0,9954, gid dong cita ngay 14 0.9432, gin véi diém chinh gitta cia khung gid ngay 10,9435. ‘Mot lin nifa, néu phe mua 6 déng Bola Uc vin con dang kim soat thi trumg, kha ning cao sé déng cita cao hon sid dong cita cha ngay 23 thing 4. (C6 hai diém the vi trong vi dy nay: tim quan trong cia pphan tich ting than gid ring bit va sy dc lap cia d6 thi fi 6 céc khung thdi gian khéc nhau. 98 NHONG VI Dy GIAO DICH THYC THEN es winnie Sings 18xSéng tat 030 eg . 4 Hinh 2.22 - D6 thj ngiy ctia AUD/USD | adele gatas | vamsngpetegwotgbl FORE nig 091 ‘BS th dug in li véi su cho phép cta Bloomberg. Bin quyén 2013 cia Bloomberg LP. Ban quyén da duge bo he. 'Néu ban khéng thufc hign phan tich tiing thank gid ho8e nbigu thanh gid. TS: khfn thigt d& nghi ban hay bit déu kim iu d6, Higa vé m6i ign quan lin nhau gitta gid md cita, gid cao mit, gid thép ait va gid dong cita la mot phn co bin khong thé thigu ca phan tich kj that “Twong ty, t6i nbn thay khong cin thigt phai phan tich 46 thi trong ngiy va 6 thi dai han trong giao dich nay vi miu hunk séng trén 6 thi ngly Ii qué 16 rang tt LOW KHUYEN CUA NHA DAU TU’ THONG MINH Khi str dung khung thai gian tuan va ngay dé xée dinh xu huéng, nha giao dich nén st dung 8 thi trong ngay dé chon diém vao va diém_ ra cho giao dich that chinh xae. lic hinh thinh dén Ic két thc. Du vay, ti khuyén nghi ban nén kiém tra nhiéu khung thi gian khéc nhau khi ban ‘thyc hinh Lf Thuyét Song Elliot. Theo quy the chung, tt st 99CCHUONG 2: HUGNG DAN THIET LAP-TIv HIRU GIAO DICH THEO SONG Z1GZAG VA SONG PHANG NitAM TIM KIEM LOL NHUAN TU SONG DAY THEP THEO. TIEU DIEM Trén dd thi bac, gid duge hign thj theo don vi cent méi ‘ounce thay vi déla ‘dung 6 thi gid trén khung thai gian tun 4 xxéc dinh xu hung, sit dung khung théi gian ngiy dé xéc dinh mau hinh séng Elliot, va sit ddung dé thi trong ngiy dé chon diém vio va dliém ra cho giao dich tht chin xéc ‘mdi ounce. Chia bat ctr con s6 nao cho 100 ta c6 duge don : vitheo délanhucach VI DU GIAO DICH THEO yét gid truyen théng. 100 SONG ZIGZAG O BAC ‘Trong phin niy, tis md td mét vai giso dich trén thj truémg bye ma téi ting thyc hign Khi giao dich kigm séng ti nim 1998 dén nim 2002. Téi da dang Ij thanh vin dé doc cde bao co tut vin ctia cong ty Eliott ‘Wave International (EW1) trong hon m6t thép nién, vi thé 18i cim thy ty tn vé kf ning phn tich sng Elliot cia chinh minh, Day a mu hin gi cha bac duge tric Ta i bio cio cia céng ty EWI (xem Hinh 2.23) vio thing 1 nim 11998, va né cho théy co hoi mua khi miu hinh song diy -xuft hig r6 rang. Nhut ban sé thay, tdi c6 thé sit dung thong tin tit vigc phan tich mau hinh s6ng zigzag dé kiém loi. [NHONG VI DY GIAO DICH THUG THE ex. ann 3 ‘BS thingay cla gid Bac ono 580 : 4 500 480 “Chibéo Sentiment dat mite dy thap nhat tr thdng Bay Carbere7 2aN07N7 z2I0ae7 varVO7 Tae SE SLRSS ‘4 Hinh 2.23 - D6 thi ngiy cia gié Bac [Ngudn: Bao eéo The Eliott Wave Theorist, Thang 2 nds 1998, (Chi bio DSI dude cung ep b0i wnvwetradefutures.com > 1, PHAN TICH DO THI GIA ‘Ta gid déng cia ngay 29 thang 1 nim 1998, séng 5 cia s6ng déy dudng nhut dang xust hign. Toi ted nén lac quan vé gié bac va Ién ké hogch mua va nim git! cho dén hi s6ng 5 két thic. Toi da qué quen thudc véi miu hinh song uit hign trén 46 thi, vi thé né dem li cho t6i sy ty tin 48 thuc hign ké hoach giao dich. G phan didi ctia Hin 2 bban nhin théy chi bao Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) theo chung thai gian ngay, la m6t chi béo do Iuténg tam ly thi trudng (sentiment) ma t6i stt dung dé tim kiém cfc dinh 101