Steps to Build Discrete Probability Distribution:

#1 Define Random Variable

#2 Build Frequency Distribution
#3 Calculate Relative Frequency - P(x) = f(x)
#4 Check Requirement #1: f(x) >= 0 , Check Requirement #2: Σf(x) = 1
#5 Create a Column Chart for a Discrete Variable (Columns do not touch)
#6 Make predictions

Isaac's Italian Restaurant has 4 banquet rooms Number of Rooms 4

Over the past year, they collected the below data: X = Random Discrete Variable = Number of Rooms Used fo

Day # Rooms Used X = # Rooms Used Frequency

Fri, Jan 3, 2014 1 0 2
Sat, Jan 4, 2014 2 1 21
Fri, Jan 10, 2014 4 2 42
Sat, Jan 11, 2014 3 3 27
Fri, Jan 17, 2014 3 4 8
Sat, Jan 18, 2014 2 Total 100
Fri, Jan 24, 2014 2
Sat, Jan 25, 2014 2
Fri, Jan 31, 2014 4 Mean = Expected Value = E(x) = µ
Sat, Feb 1, 2014 1 Mean
Fri, Feb 7, 2014 2 Population SD
Sat, Feb 8, 2014 2 SD = s
Fri, Feb 14, 2014 2
Sat, Feb 15, 2014 1
Fri, Feb 21, 2014 1 P(X <=1) 0.23
Sat, Feb 22, 2014 2 P(X = 2 OR X = 3) 0.69
Fri, Feb 28, 2014 2 P(X > 0) 0.98
Fri, Mar 7, 2014 2
Sat, Mar 8, 2014 4
Fri, Mar 14, 2014 2
Sat, Mar 15, 2014 3
Fri, Mar 21, 2014 2
Sat, Mar 22, 2014 3
Fri, Mar 28, 2014 3
Sat, Mar 29, 2014 2
Fri, Apr 4, 2014 2
Sat, Apr 5, 2014 2
Fri, Apr 11, 2014 2
Sat, Apr 12, 2014 3
Fri, Apr 18, 2014 3
Fri, Apr 25, 2014 1
Sat, Apr 26, 2014 1
 Fri, May 2, 2014 3
Sat, May 3, 2014 3
Fri, May 9, 2014 1
Sat, May 10, 2014 3
Fri, May 16, 2014 2
Sat, May 17, 2014 3
Fri, May 23, 2014 1
Sat, May 24, 2014 1
Fri, May 30, 2014 2
Sat, May 31, 2014 1
Fri, Jun 6, 2014 1
Sat, Jun 7, 2014 4
Sat, Jun 14, 2014 3
Fri, Jun 20, 2014 1
Sat, Jun 21, 2014 3
Fri, Jun 27, 2014 2
Sat, Jun 28, 2014 2
Fri, Jul 4, 2014 2
Sat, Jul 5, 2014 2
Fri, Jul 11, 2014 3
Sat, Jul 12, 2014 3
Fri, Jul 18, 2014 2
Sat, Jul 19, 2014 2
Fri, Jul 25, 2014 2
Sat, Jul 26, 2014 1
Fri, Aug 1, 2014 2
Sat, Aug 2, 2014 2
Fri, Aug 8, 2014 3
Sat, Aug 9, 2014 0
Fri, Aug 15, 2014 3
Sat, Aug 16, 2014 4
Fri, Aug 22, 2014 3
Sat, Aug 23, 2014 1
Fri, Aug 29, 2014 2
Sat, Aug 30, 2014 2
Fri, Sep 5, 2014 1
Sat, Sep 6, 2014 2
Fri, Sep 12, 2014 3
Sat, Sep 13, 2014 2
Fri, Sep 19, 2014 2
Sat, Sep 20, 2014 3
Fri, Sep 26, 2014 3
Sat, Sep 27, 2014 1
Fri, Oct 3, 2014 1
Sat, Oct 4, 2014 2
 Fri, Oct 10, 2014 1
Sat, Oct 11, 2014 3
Fri, Oct 17, 2014 3
Sat, Oct 18, 2014 2
Fri, Oct 24, 2014 2
Sat, Oct 25, 2014 2
Fri, Oct 31, 2014 2
Sat, Nov 1, 2014 1
Fri, Nov 7, 2014 2
Sat, Nov 8, 2014 4
Fri, Nov 14, 2014 0
Sat, Nov 15, 2014 4
Fri, Nov 21, 2014 2
Sat, Nov 22, 2014 1
Sat, Nov 29, 2014 3
Fri, Dec 5, 2014 4
Sat, Dec 6, 2014 3
Fri, Dec 12, 2014 3
Sat, Dec 13, 2014 2
Fri, Dec 19, 2014 1
Sat, Dec 20, 2014 3
Fri, Dec 26, 2014 2
Sat, Dec 27, 2014 2
 𝐸(𝑥) =∑▒ 〖𝑥∗𝑃 (𝑥) 〗

^2
=∑▒ 〖 (𝑥−𝐸(𝑥))^2∗𝑃(𝑥)
able = Number of Rooms Used for the Day 〗
Relative
Frequency P(X) X -E(X) (X - E(X))^2 (X - E(X))^2 * P(X)
0.02 -2.18 4.7524 0.095048
0.21 -1.18 1.3924 0.292404
0.42 -0.18 0.0324 0.013608
0.27 0.82 0.6724 0.181548
0.08 1.82 3.3124 0.264992
1 -0.9 s^2 0.8476

s 0.920651942918712
2.18
2.18
0.920651943
0.920651942919

0.98
Data collected: Number of Arrivals to Dick's Hamburgers at 45th Ave in Seattle at Saturday noon lunch during a 1-minute pe
Discrete Variable = X = Number of Arrivals in 1 min period during Sat. noon lunch rush (noon to 1 PM)

X = Arrivals During X = Arrivals P(X) Relative

1 min During 1 min Frequency Frequency
0 0 28 0.0215
0 1 102 0.0782
0 2 191 0.1464
0 3 263 0.2015
0 4 266 0.2038
0 5 204 0.1563
0 6 136 0.1042
0 7 70 0.0536
0 8 22 0.0169
0 9 14 0.0107
0 10 5 0.0038
0 11 2 0.0015
0 12 1 0.0008
0 13 0 0.0000
0 14 1 0.0008
0 Total 1305 1.0000
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urday noon lunch during a 1-minute period.
noon to 1 PM)

Mean 3.879693
Variance 3.75181 𝐸(𝑥) =∑▒ 〖𝑥∗𝑃 (𝑥) 〗
SD 1.936959

P(X <=2) 0.2460

P(X = 3 OR X = 4 OR x = 5) 0.5617 ^2
P(X > 0) 0.9785
=∑▒ 〖 (𝑥−𝐸(𝑥))^2∗𝑃(𝑥)
〗
Unit Demand = x Prob = f(x)
500 0.1
600 0.15 𝐸(𝑥) =∑▒ 〖𝑥∗𝑃 (𝑥) 〗
700 0.15
800 0.2
900 0.2 ^2
1000 0.15
1100 0.05 =∑▒ 〖 (𝑥−𝐸(𝑥))^2∗𝑃(𝑥)
1
Mean = Expected Value 790 = monthly order quantity
〗
SD 170
Price per unit $125.00
Cost per unit $60.00
Units sold for cash 500
Cash IN $62,500.00
Cash OUT $48,000.00
Cash Flow Implication $14,500.00 NOT Accrual Accounting Profit

All Values
500
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 900
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VAR.P 28900
STDEV.S 170
 Prob. Of State Stock A Stock B Stock C
State of Economy of Economy Return Return Return
Boom 0.15 0.15 0.25 0.11
Normal 0.30 0.07 0.13 0.10
Bust 0.55 -0.02 -0.135 0.03
E(Ri) 0.0325 0.00225 0.063
Standard
Sd = Proxy for Risk Deviation 0.06331469 0.1564087 0.03662
CV = SD/Mean 1.94814432 69.514986 0.581265
Mean/SD 0.51330899 0.0143854 1.720387
 A B C D E F G H I J K L
1 An insurance agent has appointments with 4 clients tomorrow.
2 From past data, the chance of making a sale is 1 in 5. What is likelihood that she will sell 3 policies in 4 tries?
3 Binomial Experiment?
4 1 Fixed # of Identical Trials = n Yes Binomial Distribution, n = 4, p = 0.2
5 2 Each trial only results in S or F Yes

𝐸(𝑥)=𝑛∗𝑝
6 3 p remains the same for each trial Yes
7 4 All events are independent Yes
8

SD = SQRT(n*p*(1-p))
9 n = # of Fixed Trials = Appointments 4
10 p = Prob of Success = 0.2
11 Random Discrete Variable = x = # Sales in 4 Tries
12 Mean = µ = E(x) = Expected Value = 0.8
13 Mean = µ = E(x) = Expected Value = 0.8
14 Standard Deviation = s = 0.64
15 Standard Deviation = s = 0.64
16 P(x) = f(x) P(x) = f(x)
17 X P(x) = f(x) 0.4096 0.4096
18 0 0.4096 0.4096 0.4096
19 1 0.4096 0.1536 0.1536
20 2 0.1536 0.0256 0.0256
21 3 0.0256 0.0016 0.0016
22 4 0.0016 Total 1 1
23 Total 1
24
25 P(x) = f(x) P(x) = f(x) SUM X
26 P(x = 3) 0.0256 0.0256 3
27 P(x <= 3) 0.9984 0.9984 3
28 P(x > 3) 0.0016 0.0016 3
29 P(x >= 3) 0.0272 0.0272 3
30 P(x < 3) 0.9728 0.9728 3

03/15/2023 Page 40 of 98 650790117.xlsx

 M N O P Q R S
1
2
3
4 Binomial Distribution, n = 4, p = 0.2
5 0.45
6 0.4
0.35
7 0.3

P(x) = f(x)
8 0.25
0.2

SQRT(n*p*(1-p))
9
0.15
10 0.1
11 0.05
0
12 0 1 2 3 4
13 Random Discrete Variable = x = # Sales in 4 Tries
14
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03/15/2023 Page 41 of 98 650790117.xlsx

 A B C D E F G H I J K L
1 A flight from Oakland to Seattle occurs 6 times per day. The probability that any 1 flight is late is 10%.
2 What is the probability that exactly 2 planes are late? Less than 2 are late? What is the mean and standard deviation?
3 Binomial Experiment?
4
5
1 Fixed # of Identical Trials = n
2 Each trial only results in S or F
Yes
Yes
𝐸(𝑥)=𝑛∗𝑝
Binomial Distribution, n = 6, p = 0.1

6 3 p remains the same for each trial Yes

SD = SQRT(n*p*(1-p))
7 4 All events are independent Yes
8
9 n = # of Fixed Trials =# flights 6
10 p = Prob of Success = 0.1
11 Random Discrete Variable = x = Planes Late in 6 Tries
Binomial Distribution, n = 6, p = 0.1
12 Mean = µ = E(x) = Expected Value = 0.6
0.60
13 Standard Deviation = s = 0.54
14 0.50
15 X P(x) = f(x) P(x) = f(x) P(x) = f(x) SUM X 0.40

P(x) = f(x)
16 0 0.531441 P(x = 2) 0.098415 0.098415 2
0.30
17 1 0.354294 P(x <= 2) 0.98415 0.984150 2
0.20
18 2 0.098415 P(x < 2) 0.885735 0.885735 2
19 3 0.014580 P(x >= 2) 0.114265 0.114265 2 0.10
20 4 0.001215 P(x > 2) 0.01585 0.015850 2 0.00
21 5 0.000054 0 1 2 3 4 5

22 6 0.000001 Random Discrete Variable = x = Planes Late in 6 Tri

23 Total 1

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 M N
1
2
3
4
5
6

SD = SQRT(n*p*(1-p))
7
8
9
10

Binomial Distribution, n =11

6, p = 0.1
12
0.60
13
0.50 14
0.40 15
P(x) = f(x)

16
0.30
17
0.20 18
0.10 19
0.00 20
0 1 2 3 21 4 5 6
Random Discrete Variable = x = Planes
22 Late in 6 Tries
23

03/15/2023 Page 43 of 98 650790117.xlsx

 A B C D E F G H I J K L
1 The probability of getting stuck in traffic on the West Seattle Bridge in the morning is 0.15.
2 Over the next two weeks (10 workdays), what is probability that you will get stuck in traffic 0 times? 1 Time?
3 Binomial Experiment?
4 1 Fixed # of Identical Trials = n Yes Binomial Distribution, n = 10, p = 0.15
5 2 Each trial only results in S or F Yes
6 3 p remains the same for each trial Yes
7 4 All events are independent Yes
8
9 n = # of Fixed Trials = # drive on bridge 10
10 p = Prob of Success = 0.15
11 Random Discrete Variable = x = Stuck In Traffic in 10 Tries
12 Mean = µ = E(x) = Expected Value = 1.5
13
14 X P(x) = f(x)
15 0 0.196874
16 1 0.347425
17 2 0.275897
18 3 0.129834
19 4 0.040096
20 5 0.008491
21 6 0.001249
22 7 0.000126
23 8 0.000008
24 9 0.000000
25 10 0.000000
26 Total 1

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 A B C D E F G H I J K
1 Highline found that 16.00% of its students withdraw from Accounting 202.
2 In the current class that has 35 students enrolled, what is the probability that between 3 and 7 students withdraw? What is the mean?
3 Binomial Experiment?
4 1 Fixed # of Identical Trials = n Yes X P(x) = f(x)
5 2 Each trial only results in S or F Yes 0 0.002238
6 3 p remains the same for each trial Yes 1 0.014917
7 4 All events are independent Yes 2 0.048303
8 3 0.101206
9 n = # of Fixed Trials = Appointments 35 4 0.154219
10 p = Prob of Success = 0.16 5 0.182125
11 Random Discrete Variable = x = withdraw from class in 35 Tries 6 0.173452
12 Mean = µ = E(x) = Expected Value = 5.6 7 0.136874
13 8 0.091249
14 3 7 P(3 <= X <= 7) 0.747877 9 0.052143
15 10 0.025823
16 11 0.011179
17 12 0.004259
18 13 0.001435
19 14 0.000430
20 15 0.000115
21 16 0.000027
22 17 0.000006
23 18 0.000001
24 19 0.000000
25 20 0.000000
26 21 0.000000
27 22 0.000000
28 23 0.000000
29 24 0.000000
30 25 0.000000
31 26 0.000000
32 27 0.000000

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 A B C D E F G H I J K
33 28 0.000000
34 29 0.000000
35 30 0.000000
36 33 0.000000
37 34 0.000000
38 35 0.000000
39 Total 1.000000

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n 10 Binomial Distribution, n = 10 p = 0.1
p 0.1 Binomial Distribution, n = 10 p = 0.1
0.45
0.4
X p(x) 0.35
0 0.348678 0.3
0.25
1 0.38742 p(x) 0.2
2 0.19371 0.15
3 0.057396 0.1
0.05
4 0.01116
0
5 0.001488 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
6 0.000138 X
7 8.748E-06
8 3.645E-07 As n increases, distributions approached Bell
9 9E-09 As p approaches 0.5, distributions approached Bell
10 1E-10 At p = .5, distribution is Bell
Data collected: Number of Arrivals to Dick's Hamburgers at 45th Ave in Seattle at Saturday noon lunch during a 1-minute pe
Discrete Variable = X = Number of Arrivals in 1 min period during Sat. noon lunch rush (noon to 1 PM)
Properties (Requirements) of a Poisson Experiment:
1) The probability of an occurrence (success) is the same for all equal-size intervals
2) The number of occurrences (successes) that occur in any interval is independent of the number of occurrences (successes) i
3) The probability of an occurrence (success) is proportional to the size of the interval (if interval doubles, proportion doubles,
4) Mean = Variance (observed from calculations made off of source data)
5) As with all our distributions, actual Relative Frequency Pattern from past data fits the "Poisson Pattern"
X = Arrivals During X = Arrivals P(X) Relative
1 min During 1 min Frequency Frequency Mean 3.879693
0 0 28 0.021 Variance 3.75181
0 1 102 0.078 SD 1.936959
0 2 191 0.146
0 3 263 0.202
0 4 266 0.204
0 5 204 0.156
0 6 136 0.104
0 7 70 0.054
0 8 22 0.017
0 9 14 0.011
0 10 5 0.004
0 11 2 0.002
0 12 1 0.001
0 13 0 0.000
0 14 1 0.001
0 Total 1305 1.000
0
0
Data collected: Number of Arrivals to Dick's Hamburgers at 45th Ave in
0 Seattle at Saturday noon lunch during a 1-minute period.
0 0.250
0
0 0.200
P(X) Relative Frequency

0
0.150
0
0
0.100
0
0 0.050
0
1 0.000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
1
X = Arrivals During 1 min
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ch during a 1-minute period. Arrivals to Dick's Hamburgers at 45th Ave in Seattle at Saturday noon lunc

ccurrences (successes) in any other interval

es, proportion doubles, mean doubles).

X = Arrivals P(X) POISSON

During 1 min Function Mean 3.879693
0 0.021 Variance 3.879693
1 0.080
2 0.155 Arrivals to Dick's Hamburgers at 45th Ave in Seattle at Saturday noon
3 0.201 lunch during a 1-minute period. Mean = 3.88
4 0.195 0.250
5 0.151
0.200
6 0.098
P(X) POISSON Function

7 0.054
0.150
8 0.026
9 0.011 0.100
10 0.004
11 0.002 0.050
12 0.001
0.000
13 0.000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223242526272829
14 0.000 X = Arrivals During 1 min
15 0.000
16 0.000
17 0.000
18 0.000
19 0.000
20 0.000
21 0.000
22 0.000
23 0.000
24 0.000
25 0.000
26 0.000
27 0.000
28 0.000
29 0.000
Total 1.000
in Seattle at Saturday noon lunch during a 1-minute period. Mean = 3.88

eattle at Saturday noon

ean = 3.88

17181920212223242526272829
min
POISSON Discrete Probability Distribution
Used to estimate the number of occurrences (successes) over specified interval of time or space
Whereas Binomial counts number of successes over a specified number of trials,
Poisson counts number of occurances (successes) over specified interval of time or space
Good for estimating the probabilities of:
1) Line waiting situations, where you know the mean number of arrivals over a certain time interval
Example: From past data we know that the mean number of arrivals at the Dick's Hamburger Restaurant at Sat. Lunch
With this information we can make estimates of the probability that a certain number of people will show up over thi
2) Distance of road or pipe intervals, where you know the mean number of repairs over a certain distance interval
Example: From past data we know that the mean number of water line breaks is 25 per 100 miles of pipe in Richmond
With this information we can make estimates of the probability that a certain number of water line breaks will occur o
THE most amazing thing about this distribution is that the only number you need to make your probability calculations is the
Properties (Requirements) of a Poisson Experiment:
1) The probability of an occurrence (success) is the same for all equal-size intervals
2) The number of occurrences (successes) that occur in any interval is independent of the number of occurrences (successes
3) The probability of an occurrence (success) is proportional to the size of the interval (if interval doubles, proportion double
4) Mean = Variance (observed from calculations made off of source data)
5) As with all our distributions, actual Relative Frequency Pattern from past data fits the "Poisson Pattern"
f(x) = P(x) = the probability of x occurrences in an interval = height of column when you plot column chart.
Discrete Random Variable = X = Number of occurrences over a specified interval of time or space.
No upper limit for X: 0,1,2,3… , but as x increases past the mean, the probability decreases and gets quite small.
Mean = µ = Calculated from past data
e = constant = 2.71828 = =EXP(1) in Excel
In Excel use: POISSON.DIST(x,mean,cumulative)
x = Number of occurrences over a specified interval of time or space = Discrete Random Variable
mean = µ = Calculated from past data
cumulative = 0 for exactly x OR 1 for less than or equal to x

Example 1:
From past data we know that the mean number of arrivals at the Dick's Hamburger Restaurant at Sat. Lunch is 3.88 people/mi
Assume: The probability of a person arriving is the same for all equal-size intervals
Assume: The number of people arriving in any interval is independent of the number of people arriving in any other interval
Goal: calculate the probability that 0 perople will arrive in 1 minute. 3 to 5 people in 1 minute?

Define Random Discrete Variable = x = x = Number Arrivals during 1 minute

Expected Value = µ = 3.88 people arriving/minute
X 0
P(0) 0.020651 0.0206508
X 3
X 5
P(3<= Arrivals in 1 minute <=5) 0.5473741933
Expected Value = µ = 1.94 0.5 minutes
X 2
P(2 Arrivals in 1/2 min) 0.2704220927
Example 2:
From past data we know that the mean number of arrivals for accoutning tutoring is 3 per hour during the morning shift
Assume: The probability of a person arriving is the same for all equal-size intervals
Assume: The number of people arriving in any interval is independent of the number of people arriving in any other interval
Goal: calculate the probability that 5 people will arrive in 1 hour

Define Random Discrete Variable = x = x = Number Arrivals during 1 hour

Expected Value = µ = 3 people arriving/hour
X 5
P(5) 0.1008188134 0.1008188

Example 3:
From past data we know that the mean number of water line breaks is 25 per 100 miles of pipe in Richmond, CA.
With this information we can make estimates of the probability that a certain number of water line breaks will occur over a 10
Assume: The probability of a water breaks is the same for all equal-size intervals
Assume: The number of water breaks in any interval is independent of the number of water breaks in any other interval
Goal: calculate the probability that 30 or more breaks will occur over a 100 mile stretch of pipe.

Define Random Discrete Variable = x = x = Number of water breaks in 100 miles of pipe
Expected Value = µ = 25 water breaks/100 miles
X 30
P(x>=30) 0.182103916
P(x>=30) 0.182103916
Mean number of water line breaks is 25 per 100 miles of
CA.
X 10
P(x<10) 0.0002214766
P(x<10) 0.0002214766

X P(x)

P(x)
0 1.388794E-11
1 3.471986E-10
2 4.339982E-09
3 3.616652E-08
4 2.260408E-07 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48
5 1.130204E-06
x = Number of water breaks in 100 mile
6 4.709182E-06
7 1.681851E-05
8 5.255784E-05
9 0.000145994
10 0.000364985
11 0.0008295113
12 0.0017281486
13 0.0033233628
14 0.0059345764
15 0.0098909606
16 0.0154546259
17 0.0227273911
18 0.0315658209
19 0.0415339749
20 0.0519174686
21 0.0618065102
22 0.0702346707
23 0.0763420334
24 0.0795229515
25 0.0795229515
26 0.0764643764
27 0.0708003485
28 0.0632145969
29 0.0544953422
30 0.0454127851
31 0.0366232138
 32 0.0286118858
33 0.0216756711
34 0.0159379934
35 0.011384281
36 0.0079057507
37 0.0053417234
38 0.0035142917
39 0.0022527511
40 0.0014079694
41 0.000858518
42 0.0005110226
43 0.0002971062
44 0.0001688103
45 9.378351E-05
46 5.09693E-05
47 2.711133E-05
48 1.412048E-05
49 7.204329E-06
50 3.602164E-06
51 1.765767E-06
52 8.489263E-07
53 4.00437E-07
54 1.853875E-07
55 8.426704E-08
56 3.761921E-08
57 1.649965E-08
58 7.11192E-09
59 3.013525E-09
60 1.255636E-09
61 5.146048E-10
62 2.075019E-10
63 8.234203E-11
64 3.216486E-11
65 1.23711E-11
66 4.686022E-12
67 1.748516E-12
68 6.428367E-13
69 2.329118E-13
70 8.31828E-14
71 2.928972E-14
72 1.017004E-14
73 3.482891E-15
74 1.176652E-15
Total 1
 time interval
mburger Restaurant at Sat. Lunch is 3.88 people/minute.
er of people will show up over this interval
r a certain distance interval
per 100 miles of pipe in Richmond, CA.
er of water line breaks will occur over a 100 mile stretch
our probability calculations is the mean.

umber of occurrences (successes) in any other interval

erval doubles, proportion doubles, mean doubles).

oisson Pattern"
t column chart.

and gets quite small.

nt at Sat. Lunch is 3.88 people/minute. Arrivals to Dick's Hamburgers at 45th Ave in Seattle at Saturday noon lunch d

le arriving in any other interval Arrivals to Dick's Hamburgers at 45th Ave in Seattle at Saturday noon
lunch during a 1-minute period. Mean = 3.88
0.25

0.2

X P(x) 0.15
0 0.0206508252
P(x)

1 0.0801252017 0.1
2 0.1554428913
3 0.2010394728 0.05
4 0.1950082886
0
5 0.1513264319 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
6 0.0978577593 x = Number Arrivals during 1 minute
7 0.054241158
 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
x = Number Arrivals during 1 minute

8 0.0263069616
9 0.0113412235
10 0.0044003947
11 0.0015521392
12 0.0005018583
13 0.0001497854
14 4.1511958E-05
15 1.073776E-05
16 2.6039067E-06
17 5.9430342E-07
18 1.281054E-07
19 2.6160472E-08
20 5.0751316E-09
21 9.3769098E-10
22 1.6537459E-10
23 2.7897974E-11
24 4.5101725E-12
25 6.9997877E-13
26 1.0445837E-13
27 1.5011055E-14
28 2.0801033E-15
29 2.7830348E-16
30 3.5993916E-17
Total 1

ur during the morning shift

le arriving in any other interval

pe in Richmond, CA. Mean number of water line breaks is 25 per 100 miles of pipe in
er line breaks will occur over a 100 mile stretch in Richmond, CA.

breaks in any other interval

ater line breaks is 25 per 100 miles of pipe in Richmond,
CA.

8 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72

= Number of water breaks in 100 miles of pipe

Seattle at Saturday noon lunch during a 1-minute period. Mean = 3.88

Ave in Seattle at Saturday noon

period. Mean = 3.88

14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
als during 1 minute
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
als during 1 minute

aks is 25 per 100 miles of pipe in Richmond, CA.

 A B C D E F G H I J K L

1 Hypergeometric Distribution
2 Similar to Binomial Distribution except: 1) the trails are not independent AND 2) the probability of success changes from trial to trial.
3 In Excel use: HYPGEOM.DIST(x,n,population_s,number_pop,cumulative)
4 x = Number of Successes in Sample = Discrete Random Variable = sample_s
5 n = Trials/Steps in Experiment = Sample Size = number_sample
6 Number Successes in Pop. = population_s
7 Population Size = number_pop
8 cumulative = FALSE = 0 = probability mass function. Use to calculate exactly x
9 OR
10 cumulative = TRUE = 1 = probability mass function. Use to calculate <= x (everything from smallest up to and including x)
11
12 Probability of pulling 2 Face Cards in 5 tries?
13 Success = Face card Face Card (Not Ace)
14 Event = pull 2 face cards (not an ace) in 5 tries
15 x = Number of Successes in Sample = Discrete Random Variable = sample_s 2
16 n = Trials/Steps in Experiment = Sample Size = number_sample 5
17 Number Successes in Pop. = population_s 12
18 Population Size = number_pop 52
19 cumulative = FALSE = 0 = probability mass function. Use to calculate exactly x 0
20 Number of Sample Points 10 =COMBIN(G16,G15)
21
22 Probability of pulling 2 Face Cards in 5 tries 0.2509
23 Probability of pulling 2 Face Cards in 5 tries 0.2509
24
25 Sample Point Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5 Prob.
26 Sample Point 1 F F NF NF NF 0.02509 =12/52*11/51*(50-10)/50*(49-10)/49*(48-10)/48
27 Sample Point 2 F NF F NF NF 0.02509 =12/52*(51-11)/51*11/50*(49-10)/49*(48-10)/48
28 Sample Point 3 F NF NF F NF 0.02509 =12/52*(51-11)/51*(50-11)/50*11/49*(48-10)/48
29 Sample Point 4 F NF NF NF F 0.02509 =12/52*(51-11)/51*(50-11)/50*(49-11)/49*11/48
30 Sample Point 5 NF F F NF NF 0.02509 =(52-12)/52*12/51*11/50*(49-10)/49*(48-10)/48
31 Sample Point 6 NF F NF F NF 0.02509 =(52-12)/52*12/51*(50-11)/50*11/49*(48-10)/48
32 Sample Point 7 NF F NF NF F 0.02509 =(52-12)/52*12/51*(50-11)/50*(49-11)/49*11/48
33 Sample Point 8 NF NF F F NF 0.02509 =(52-12)/52*(51-12)/51*12/50*11/49*(48-10)/48
34 Sample Point 9 NF NF F NF F 0.02509 =(52-12)/52*(51-12)/51*12/50*(49-11)/49*11/48
35 Sample Point 10 NF NF NF F F 0.02509 =(52-12)/52*(51-12)/51*(50-12)/50*12/49*11/48

03/15/2023 Page 91 of 98 650790117.xlsx

 A B C D E F G H I
1 Example 2:
2 Success = Face card Face Card (Not Ace)
3 Event = pull 2 face cards (not an ace) in 5 tries
4 x = Number of Successes in Sample = Discrete Random Variable = sample_s 2
5 n = Trials/Steps in Experiment = Sample Size = number_sample 5
6 Number Successes in Pop. = population_s 12
7 Population Size = number_pop 52
8 cumulative = FALSE = 0 = probability mass function. Use to calculate exactly x 0
9
10 X = Pull Face in 5 tries P(x)
11 0 0.253181273
12 1 0.421968788
13 2 0.25090036
14 3 0.066026411
15 4 0.007618432
16 5 0.000304737
17 Total 1
18
19 Calculate the probability of getting 0 Face cards OR 1 face card OR 2 face cards in 5 tries:
20 X P(X) SUM
21 2 P(x<=2) 0.926050420168
22 HYPGEOM.DIST
23 0.926050420168
24
25
26 Example 3:
27 During the financial crisis of 2008, of the ten biggest banks, only three increase lending after they were given TARP funds of about 2 Billion dolars were given out.
28 If you took at random sample of 4 of the ten biggest banks at that time, what is the probability that 1 of them would have increased lending, all 3?
29
30 Population size = 10
31 success in pop 3
32 Sample size 4
33 Success = Did lend $
34 x = Number # that did lend in sample
35 x P(x) P(x)
36 1 0.5 0.5
37 3 0.033333333

03/15/2023 Page 92 of 98 650790117.xlsx

The probability of getting stuck in traffic on Hwy 99 in the morning is 0.25.
Over the next three weeks (15 workdays), what is probability that you will get stuck in traffic for various x values
Binomial Experiment?
1 Fixed # of Identical Trials = n Yes Binomial Distribution, n = 15, p = 0
2 Each trial only results in S or F Yes
3 p remains the same for each trial Yes
4 All events are independent Yes

n = # of Fixed Trials = # drive on bridge 15

p = Prob of Success = 0.25
Random Discrete Variable = x = Stuck In Traffic in 15 Tries 4
P(x<=4) = 0.6865 0.686486

X P(x) = f(x) P(x<=4) = 0.6865

0 0.013363 0.013363 Binomial Distribution, n = 15, p = 0.25
1 0.066817 0.066817 P(x) = f(x) P(x<=4) = 0.6865
2 0.155907 0.155907
0.25
3 0.225199 0.225199
4 0.225199 0.225199 0.20
5 0.165146
0.15
6 0.091748
P(x)

7 0.039320 0.10
8 0.013107
0.05
9 0.003398
10 0.000680 0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
11 0.000103
Random Discrete Variable = x = Stuck In Traffic in 15 Tries
12 0.000011
13 0.000001
14 0.000000
15 0.000000
Total 1.000000
Distribution, n = 15, p = 0.25

= 15, p = 0.25
= 0.6865

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Stuck In Traffic in 15 Tries
The probability of getting stuck in traffic on Hwy 99 in the morning is 0.25.
Over the next three weeks (15 workdays), what is probability that you will get stuck in traffic for various x values
Binomial Experiment?
1 Fixed # of Identical Trials = n Yes Binomial Distribution, n = 15, p = 0
2 Each trial only results in S or F Yes
3 p remains the same for each trial Yes
4 All events are independent Yes

n = # of Fixed Trials = # drive on bridge 15

p = Prob of Success = 0.25
Random Discrete Variable = x = Stuck In Traffic in 15 Tries 6
P(x>6) = 0.0566 0.05662

X P(x) = f(x) P(x>6) = 0.0566

0 0.013363 Binomial Distribution, n = 15, p = 0.25
1 0.066817 P(x) = f(x) P(x>6) = 0.0566
2 0.155907
0.25
3 0.225199
4 0.225199 0.20
5 0.165146
0.15
6 0.091748
P(x)

7 0.039320 0.039320 0.10

8 0.013107 0.013107
0.05
9 0.003398 0.003398
10 0.000680 0.000680 0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
11 0.000103 0.000103
Random Discrete Variable = x = Stuck In Traffic in 15 Tries
12 0.000011 0.000011
13 0.000001 0.000001
14 0.000000 0.000000
15 0.000000 0.000000
Total 1.000000
Distribution, n = 15, p = 0.25

= 15, p = 0.25
= 0.0566

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Stuck In Traffic in 15 Tries
The probability of getting stuck in traffic on Hwy 99 in the morning is 0.25.
Over the next three weeks (15 workdays), what is probability that you will get stuck in traffic for various x values/
Binomial Experiment?
1 Fixed # of Identical Trials = n Yes Binomial Distribution, n = 15, p = 0.25
2 Each trial only results in S or F Yes Random Discrete Variable = x = Stuck
3 p remains the same for each trial Yes
4 All events are independent Yes

n = # of Fixed Trials = # drive on bridge 15

p = Prob of Success = 0.25
X - Lower 2
X - Upper 5
0.771451

X P(x) = f(x) P(2<=X<=5) = 0.7715

0 0.013363 Binomial Distribution, n = 15, p = 0.25
1 0.066817
0.25
2 0.155907 0.155907
3 0.225199 0.225199 0.20
4 0.225199 0.225199
5 0.165146 0.165146 0.15
P(x) = f(x)
6 0.091748
P(x)

P(2<=X<=5) = 0.7715
7 0.039320 0.10

8 0.013107
0.05
9 0.003398
10 0.000680 0.00
11 0.000103 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

12 0.000011 Random Discrete Variable = x = Stuck In Traffic in 15 Tries

13 0.000001
14 0.000000
15 0.000000
Total 1.000000
arious x values/

Distribution, n = 15, p = 0.25

Discrete Variable = x = Stuck In Traffic in 15 Tries

5, p = 0.25

P(x) = f(x)
P(2<=X<=5) = 0.7715

3 14 15
15 Tries