CHAPTER 3

METHOD OF RESEARCH AND PROCEDURES

Method of Research Used

The method used in this research is the Stochastic Method. It is a method

applicable to studies that are based on probability. Stochastic approach involves obtaining

values from a corresponding sequence of jointly distributed random variables. Since this

research is concerned with the hydrologic characteristics of O'Donnell River, wherein

rainfall distributions were used in getting results, the stochastic method of research is the

most appropriate method to use.

Probability in Hydrology

The importance of probability in the field of hydrology is its ability to predict data

of future events that can serve as a basis for planning today. Probabilities of precipitation,

streamflow and other hydrologic factors play huge part to the economic and social

evaluation of a project. Water resources systems must be planned prior to these

probabilities to be able to protect human life from future floods by reducing the

frequency of flooding and mitigating flood damages, but not by way of having an

absolute control over flood. The probable maximum flood has become the standard for

designing.

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 Using probability concepts, this study aims to provide needed hydrologic

characteristics of O’Donnell River that can be used as a basis in planning, designing and

operating water resources structures.

O’Donnell River Catchment Area

Setting the boundary of O’Donnell River catchment area is the first procedure of

this study. This boundary separates the considered catchment area or watershed from

another. It will help the researchers determine which amount of water fell inside the

watershed.

A map, converted into an AutoCAD file with a scale of 1:1000, will be used

(Fig3.1). It has contour lines shown in increments of 200 meters.

Fig 3.1 Converted map of Region III

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 Blue line represents rivers. Contour lines are also color-coded according to their

elevations:

 Green line – 200 meters

 Purple line – 400 meters

 Orange line – 600 meters

 Yellow line – 800 meters

 Red line – 1000 meters

 Black line – 1200 meters

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Daily, Monthly and Annual Maximum Rainfall Intensities

After determining the catchment area of O’Donnell River, the amount of

precipitation, in terms of rainfall, that fell inside the boundary will be obtained.

Gathering these rainfall data for a catchment area will raise two problems:

1. No rainfall gauging stations present within the catchment area.

2. Incomplete records or missing observations of rainfall data from different rainfall

gauging stations.

Problems stated above can be addressed by employing the following methods:

I. Thiessen Polygon Method

Thiessen polygon method, also known as the weighted mean method, is

one of the three methods used in getting average precipitation of an area. Absence

of rainfall gauging stations in a catchment area will lead to making used of

adjacent gauging stations prior to that area. In this method, rainfall recorded by

each adjacent gauging station will be weighted according to the area they

represent.

In performing Thiessen polygon method, the listed procedure must be followed:

1. Draw the area concerned to a suitable scale, showing its boundary, locations of

the rain gauges in the area and outside but close to the boundary.

2. Join location of the rain gauges to form a network of triangles.

3. Draw perpendicular bisectors to the triangle sides. These bisectors form polygons

around the stations.

4. Delineate the formed polygons and measure their areas.

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 5. Compute the average rainfall using the following formula:

P1 A1 + P2 A 2 +…+ Pn A n
Pave =
A1 + A2 +…+ A n

where:

Pave = Average precipitation

P1 , P2 , P n = Precipitation of the corresponding polygon

A1 , A 2 , A n = Area of the corresponding polygon

II. Inverse Distance Method

Inverse distance method is one of the four most commonly used methods

in estimating missing rainfall data. In this method, values of the estimated stations

are inversely proportional to their distance from gauged stations;

∑ d12 Pi
i=1 i
P x= N

∑ d12
i=1 i

where:

Px = estimate of rainfall for the un-gauged station

Pi = rainfall values from gauging stations used for estimation

di = distance from each gauging stations used for estimation

N = no. of gauging stations used for estimation

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Sampling Design

The completed daily rainfall data for O’Donnell River catchment area will then be

treated using statistics. Three statistical samples will be used in the analyses.

These are:

1. Annual Maximum Rainfall Intensities of Daily Series

For a specific year, the maximum daily rainfall intensity will be used to

represent for the whole year. Meaning, among the 365 or 366 (for leap years)

daily rainfall intensities recorded for a single year, only one, which is the

maximum, will be used. 39-year recording period corresponds to 39 daily

maximum rainfall intensities.

Maximum intensities will be used instead of mean intensities to be able to

acquire results for extreme possible phenomena that might occur.

2. Annual Maximum Rainfall Intensities of Monthly Series

For a specific year, the maximum monthly rainfall intensity will be used to

represent for the whole year. Daily rainfall intensities of a single month will first

be added to obtain its monthly rainfall intensity equivalent. Then, among the 12

resulting intensities for a single year, only one, which is the maximum, will be

used. 39-year recording period corresponds to 39 monthly maximum rainfall

intensities.

3. Actual Annual Maximum Rainfall Intensities

All daily rainfall intensities for a specific year will be added to represent

for the whole year. 39-year recording period corresponds to 39 actual annual

maximum rainfall intensities.

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Theoretical Distributions

The three statistical samples will be plotted on a graph to determine which

theoretical distributions will best represent their nature. The use of theoretical

distributions is to relate the magnitude or intensity of extreme events to their frequency of

occurrence. The sample data will be investigated to estimate the recurrence or

probabilities of those magnitudes or intensities.

Chow has shown that most frequency functions can be generalized to:

X =X + K σ X

X = A rainfall of specified probability

X = Mean of the rainfall series

K = Frequency factor defined by a specific distribution

σX = Standard deviation of the series

The following are the two most commonly used theoretical distributions:

I. Extreme - Value Type I Distribution or Gumbel ( EV I ) Distribution

It is the first asymptotic distribution of EV I and has been widely used and

is recommended in the United Kingdom. The EV1 distribution only uses two (2)

parameters, mean ( X ) which is the location parameter and standard deviation ( σ X )

which is the scale parameter.

The value of X for any probability level is computed by:

X =X + ( 0.7797 y −0.45 ) σ X

y = Reduced variate

= −ln ⁡[−ln ( 1− p ) ]

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 X = Mean of the data series

σX = Standard deviation

II. Log-Pearson Type III

It is a distribution adopted for use by United States federal agency for

analysis. The Type III distribution is one of a family of distributions suggested by

Pearson. This distribution uses three (3) parameters, mean ( log X ) which is the

location parameter, standard deviation (σ log X ) which is the scale parameter, and

skew (G), which is the shape parameter. With a third parameter, skew, the

distribution can be “fitted” to most data sets.

The value of X for any probability level is computed by:

log X =log X + K σ log X

Mean: log X =
∑ log X
n

Standard Deviation: σ log X =

√ ∑ (log X −log X )2
n−1

Skew Coefficient: G=n ∑ ¿ ¿¿ ¿

K is taken from Table 3.1 (See Appendix)

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Plotting positions

In plotting statistical sample data on a graph, plotting positions will be used.

Plotting positions are values that plot a series of peak intensity as a cumulative frequency

curve. Probability p or return period T r is associated with each peak.

p and T r are reciprocals:

1
p=
Tr

Plotting positions formula:

I. Weibull’s Plotting Position

It is the plotting position most commonly used in the United States. In this

study to determine the straight line Weibull plotting position the data must be

ranked from the lowest time to the highest intensity and compute for the vertical

coordinate for each point using the formula:

m
p=
n+1

or

n+1
T r=
m

m = Rank of the data point

n = Number of data points

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 II. Gringorten’s Plotting Position

It is the plotting position recommended by the U.K. National Environmental

Research Council. To determine the straight line Gringorten’s plotting position,

again the data must be ranked from the lowest time to the highest and compute for

the vertical coordinate for each point using the formula:

m−0.44
p=
n+0.12

or

n+ 0.12
T r=
m−0.44

m = Rank of the data point

n = number of data points

Distribution Fitting

Distribution fitting is the procedure of choosing or selecting a statistical

distribution that best fits to a set of statistical sample data achieved and developed by

some random process. In most cases, it is a requirement to fit two or more distributions,

compare the results, and select the most valid model.

After the distributions are fitted with the statistical sample data, it is indispensable

to determine how well the distributions selected fit those data. This can be done using

specific goodness of fit tests by comparing the empirical and theoretical distribution

graphs.

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Chi-Square “Goodness-of-Fit” Test

This test is for choosing the better probabilistic model that better adjust or

represent to the data from the chosen river.

The chi-square “goodness-of-fit” test is a statistical test that can be used to

determine whether observed frequencies are significantly different from expected

frequencies. Chi-square “goodness-of-fit” test will be used in this study to compare

observed and expected frequencies statistically, since it is not conventional to tell the

difference just by looking at them. Statistical significance in this case implies that the

differences are not due to chance alone, but instead may be indicative of other processes

at work.

This approach consists of four steps:

 State the hypotheses

 Formulate an analysis plan

 Analyze sample data

 Interpret results.

1. State the Hypotheses

Every hypothesis test requires the analyst to state a null hypothesis and

an alternative hypothesis. The hypotheses are stated in such a way that they are

mutually exclusive. That is, if one is true, the other must be false; and vice versa.

For a chi-square goodness of fit test, the hypotheses take the following form.

H o - The data are consistent with a specified distribution. 

Ha - The data are not consistent with a specified

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 distribution.

Typically, the null hypothesis specifies the proportion of observations at

each level of the categorical variable. The alternative hypothesis is that at

least one of the specified proportions is not true.

2. Formulate an Analysis Plan

The analysis plan describes how to use sample data to accept or reject the

null hypothesis. The plan should specify the following elements:

a. Significance level. Often, researchers choose significance levels equal to 0.01,

0.05, or 0.10; but any value between 0 and 1 can be used.

b. Test method. Use the chi-square goodness of fit test to determine whether

observed sample frequencies differ significantly from expected frequencies

specified in the null hypothesis. The chi-square goodness of fit test is described in

the next section, and demonstrated in the sample problem at the end of this lesson.

3. Analyze Sample Data

Using sample data, find the degrees of freedom, expected frequency

counts, test statistic, and the P-value associated with the test statistic.

a. Degrees of freedom. The degrees of freedom (df) is equal to the number of levels

(k) of the categorical variable minus 1

df =k −1

b. Expected frequency counts. The expected frequency counts at each level of the

categorical variable are equal to the sample size times the hypothesized

proportion from the null hypothesis

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 Ei =n p i

Ei  - expected frequency count for the i th level of the categorical variable

n - total sample size

pi - hypothesized proportion of observations in level i

c. Test statistic. The test statistic is a chi-square random variable (Χ 2) defined by

the following equation.

[ ]
2
k
( Oi−Ei )
X =∑
2

i=1 Ei

k = Interval of class for divided data

Oi = Observed frequency for interval

Ei = Expected frequency for interval

4. Interpret Results

If the sample findings are unlikely, given the null hypothesis, the

researcher rejects the null hypothesis.

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Rainfall-Frequency Curve for O’Donnell Catchment Area

The best “fitted” distribution for each of the three statistical samples, i.e. Annual

Maximum Rainfall Intensities of Daily Series, Annual Maximum Rainfall Intensities of

Monthly Series and Actual Annual Maximum Rainfall Intensity, will be used to generate

the Rainfall-Frequency Curve for O’Donnell River Catchment area. Three (3) rainfall-

frequency curves will be adapted for three (3) different statistical samples.

Runoff Magnitude

The resulting 50-year rainfall intensities from the adapted distributions will be

used in getting the equivalent runoff magnitudes. Runoff to be computed is also

dependent on the following variables:

Time of Concentration

Time taken by the runoff from the farthest point on the periphery of the catchment

(critical point) to reach the site is called the ‘concentration time’. To get peak discharge at

a site, rainfall intensity corresponding to the duration of time of concentration for that

catchment needs to be considered.

Time of concentration depends on distance from critical point to the site and the

average velocity of flow.

The following simple relationship would suit the purpose.

( )
3 0.385
L
t c = 0.87
H

tc = Concentration time in hours

L = Distance from the critical point to the site in km

H = Fall in level from the critical point to the site in meters.

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Critical or Design Intensity (Ic)

It is the maximum intensity that can occur in a time interval equal to the

concentration time tc of the catchment, during design storm of a given frequency. Every

catchment will thus have its own tc and Ic.

Putting t=t c in the basic equation

I c= ( )
F T +1
T t c +1

F
= the mean intensity of the storm in cm per hour
T

F is centimeters of rain falls in T hours

Calculations of Runoff

A precipitation of Ic (cm per hour) over an area of ‘A’ (hectares), will give rise to

a runoff;

Q=0.028 PA I c

Q = Maximum runoff in cumecs

A = Area in hectares

Ic = Critical intensity of rainfall in cm per hour

P = Percentage coefficient of runoff for the catchment characteristics

Value of P may be taken from the succeeding table:

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 Type of catchment Max. value of P

Steep bare rock 0.90

Rock steep but wooded 0.80

Plateaus lightly covered 0.70

Clayey soils, stiff and bare 0.60

Clayey soils, lightly covered 0.50

Loam, lightly cultivated or covered 0.40

Loam, largely cultivated 0.30

Sandy soil, light growth 0.20

Sandy soil, covered, heavy brush 0.10

Source: National Irrigation Administration (NIA) Design Manual

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