Silver's Subtle Indication PDF

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1 z 13 06.03.2023, 13:02
� Gold Trading Alerts
Przemysław K. Radomski, CFA 5 minutes ago

PC
Posted in Gold Trading Alerts
Silver's Subtle Indication

Briefly: in our opinion, full (250% of the regular position size) speculative short positions in
junior mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward point of view at the moment of
publishing this Alert. In other words, I’m further increasing the size of the short position.
The precious metals market moved slightly higher on Friday, and we saw a subtle sign from
gold miners’ and silver’s relative performance.
2 z 13 06.03.2023, 13:02
Namely, while the GDXJ (upper part of the chart) moved only a little above its recent high,
silver has pretty much doubled its previous short-term upswing.
To be clear, neither of those moves higher was substantial. However, it is the relative
performance that matters from the analytical point of view.
As I have emphasized many times before, miners tend to underperform gold close to tops,
while silver tends to catch up. That’s something that we saw on Friday.
While it doesn’t guarantee that the top is already in, it does indicate two important things:
1. It’s likely that the top is just around the corner (or it’s already in)
2. The easy part of the rally was indeed most likely over on March 1, when we took profits
from the recent long position.
In terms of resistance levels, the SLV ETF (proxy for silver) hit the upper border of its recent
price gap, gold and silver haven’t moved to their next important resistance levels. They did
move above the previous resistance levels, and made a one daily close above them. This
means that the small (very small in case of the GDXJ ETF) breakout is not confirmed at this
moment
So far gold and silver are both down in today’s pre-market trading (chart courtesy of
3 z 13 06.03.2023, 13:02
https://www.SilverPriceForecast.com/).
Consequently, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the above-mentioned breakouts be invalidated

shortly – perhaps as early as today.
4 z 13 06.03.2023, 13:02
Forecasting gold prices in the short run is not an easy task right now, as gold moved to one
of its resistance levels (mid-June 2022 high), but didn’t move to the combination of
particularly strong short-term resistance levels yet. It doesn’t need to reach the latter, as the
strong medium-term remains to the downside and the RSI indicator already moved to the
middle of its trading range, thus doing what back in mid-2022 meant that the key part of the
rally was over.
Still, if gold was to move higher, to about $1,772, it would be likely to top there.
What does it all mean from the broad point of view?
5 z 13 06.03.2023, 13:02
Pretty much nothing.
The possible additional tiny upswing in gold is likely to not even be visible on gold’s long-
term chart, while the sizable medium-term downside is clearly visible.
6 z 13 06.03.2023, 13:02
It’s even clearer in case of gold stocks. The possible tiny move higher is practically irrelevant
from the long-term point of view, and taking into account how low the mining stocks are
likely to slide (and how big our profits are likely to be thanks to this slide), it doesn’t make
much sense to focus on it, especially that we already took profits what seems to have been
the easy part of the corrective upswing.
7 z 13 06.03.2023, 13:02
The above GDXJ chart shows that the tiny move higher that we saw on Friday took the price
to the declining dashed line, which is created based on the possible “neck” line of the
possible head-and-shoulders pattern.
The H&S patterns tend to be symmetric, so the dashed line that’s also based on the mid-Dec
2022 intraday high, likely served as resistance.
If the GDXJ ETF turns south here and breaks below the neck level, the head-and-shoulders
formation will be a book-example of the formation.
The bearish outlook remains intact.
Also, before summarizing I’d like to give you a brief update on the following (it’s a quote from
Friday’s analysis):
First, it is giving you a little heads up that I stumbled upon what might be an extraordinary
opportunity (even compared to the above), and I will consider taking advantage of it using
options. Of course, it will not be for everyone, but since I’m considering participating myself, I
will also let you know, and some of you might also want to participate in it as well. I want to
think about it some more before I provide you with details. You can expect a follow-up from me
(probably early) next week.
The update is that I’m still investigating it, weighing in pros and cons of this opportunity, and
I’ll likely get back to you with this later this week (if I decide to engage in it).
Overview of the Upcoming Part of the Decline

1. It seems to me that the corrective upswing is over or about to be over.
2. If we see a situation where miners slide in a meaningful and volatile way while silver
doesn’t (it just declines moderately), I plan to – once again – switch from short positions in
miners to short positions in silver. At this time, it’s too early to say at what price levels this could
take place and if we get this kind of opportunity at all – perhaps with gold prices close to
8 z 13 06.03.2023, 13:02
$1,500 - $1,550.
3. I plan to switch from the short positions in junior mining stocks or silver (whichever I’ll have
at that moment) to long positions in junior mining stocks when gold / mining stocks move to
their 2020 lows (approximately). While I’m probably not going to write about it at this stage yet,
this is when some investors might consider getting back in with their long-term investing capital
(or perhaps 1/3 or 1/2 thereof).
4. I plan to return to short positions in junior mining stocks after a rebound – and the
rebound could take gold from about $1,450 to about $1,550, and it could take the GDXJ from
about $20 to about $24. In other words, I’m currently planning to go long when GDXJ is close
to $20 (which might take place when gold is close to $1,450), and I’m planning to exit this
long position and re-enter the short position once we see a corrective rally to $24 in the GDXJ
(which might take place when gold is close to $1,550).
5. I plan to exit all remaining short positions once gold shows substantial strength relative to
the USD Index while the latter is still rallying. This may be the case with gold prices close to
$1,400 and GDXJ close to $15. This moment(when gold performs very strongly against the
rallying USD and miners are strong relative to gold after its substantial decline) is likely to be
the best entry point for long-term investments, in my view. This can also happen with gold close
to $1,400, but at the moment it’s too early to say with certainty.
6. The above is based on the information available today, and it might change in the
following days/weeks.
You will find my general overview of the outlook for gold on the chart below:
Please note that the above timing details are relatively broad and “for general overview only” –
9 z 13 06.03.2023, 13:02
Please note that the above timing details are relatively broad and “for general overview only” –
so that you know more or less what I think and how volatile I think the moves are likely to be –
on an approximate basis. These time targets are not binding nor clear enough for me to think
that they should be used for purchasing options, warrants, or similar instruments.
Letters to the Editor

Please post your questions in the comments feed below the articles, if they are about issues
raised within the article (or in the recent issues), and if they are about other, more universal
matters, I encourage you to use the Ask the Communityspace (I’m also part of the
community, after all), so that more people can contribute to the reply and then enjoy the
answer. Of course, let’s keep the target-related discussions in the Gold Trading Alerts space.
Summary
To summarize, in my view, the real interest rates are up and about to soar higher, the USD
Index most likely bottomed and is likely to soar, while the precious metals topped (or at least
the easy part of the rally is over) and are now likely to slide – either shortly or soon enough.
The corrective upswing was rather quick and quite lucrative given that the capital was used
for it for just a few trading days. And let’s not forget that we were able to re-enter the short
positions at higher levels, so the benefits are actually even bigger than they seem at the first
sight. Congratulations once again!
It seems that the short-term top is in or at hand. Based on silver’s catch-up, I’m increasing
the size of the current short position.
As a reminder, we still have “promotion” that allows you to extend your subscription for up to
three (!) years at the current prices… With a 20% discount! And it would apply to all those
years, so the savings can be substantial. Given inflation this high, it’s practically certain that
we will be raising our prices, and the above would not only protect you from it (at least on
our end), but it would also be a perfect way to re-invest some of the profits that you just
made.
The savings can be even bigger if you apply it to our All-inclusive Package (Stock- and Oil-
Trading Alerts are also included). Actually, in this case, 25% discount (even up to three years!)
applies, so the savings are huge!
If you’d like to upgrade your plan (e.g. to All-inclusive Package) and take advantage of the
10 z 13 06.03.2023, 13:02
discount, please use this link to continue.
If you’d like to extend your subscription (and perhaps also upgrade your plan while doing so),
please contact us – our support staff will be happy to help and make sure that your
subscription is set up perfectly.
If anything about the above is unclear, but you’d like to proceed – please contact us, anyway
:).
As always, we'll keep you – our subscribers – informed.
To summarize:
Trading capital (supplementary part of the portfolio; our opinion): Full speculative short
positions (250% of the full position) in junior mining stocks are justified from the risk to
reward point of view with the following binding exit profit-take price levels:
Mining stocks (price levels for the GDXJ ETF): binding profit-take exit price: $26.13; stop-loss:
none (the volatility is too big to justify a stop-loss order in case of this particular trade)
Alternatively, if one seeks leverage, we’re providing the binding profit-take levels for the JDST
(2x leveraged). The binding profit-take level for the JDST: $13.87; stop-loss for the JDST: none
(the volatility is too big to justify a SL order in case of this particular trade).
For-your-information targets (our opinion; we continue to think that mining stocks are the
preferred way of taking advantage of the upcoming price move, but if for whatever reason
one wants / has to use silver or gold for this trade, we are providing the details anyway.):
Silver futures downside profit-take exit price: $17.83
SLV profit-take exit price: $16.73
ZSL profit-take exit price: $32.97
Gold futures downside profit-take exit price: $1,743
HGD.TO – alternative (Canadian) 2x inverse leveraged gold stocks ETF – the upside profit-take
exit price: $10.97
HZD.TO – alternative (Canadian) 2x inverse leveraged silver ETF – the upside profit-take exit
11 z 13 06.03.2023, 13:02
price: $25.47
Long-term capital (core part of the portfolio; our opinion): No positions (in other words: cash)
Insurance capital (core part of the portfolio; our opinion): Full position
Whether you’ve already subscribed or not, we encourage you to find out how to make the
most of our alerts and read our replies to the most common alert-and-gold-trading-related-
questions.
Please note that we describe the situation for the day that the alert is posted in the trading
section. In other words, if we are writing about a speculative position, it means that it is up-
to-date on the day it was posted. We are also featuring the initial target prices to decide
whether keeping a position on a given day is in tune with your approach (some moves are too
small for medium-term traders, and some might appear too big for day-traders).
Additionally, you might want to read why our stop-loss orders are usually relatively far from
the current price.
Please note that a full position doesn't mean using all of the capital for a given trade. You will
find details on our thoughts on gold portfolio structuring in the Key Insights section on our
website.
As a reminder - "initial target price" means exactly that - an "initial" one. It's not a price level
at which we suggest closing positions. If this becomes the case (as it did in the previous
trade), we will refer to these levels as levels of exit orders (exactly as we've done previously).
Stop-loss levels, however, are naturally not "initial", but something that, in our opinion, might
be entered as an order.
Since it is impossible to synchronize target prices and stop-loss levels for all the ETFs and
ETNs with the main markets that we provide these levels for (gold, silver and mining stocks -
the GDX ETF), the stop-loss levels and target prices for other ETNs and ETF (among other:
UGL, GLL, AGQ, ZSL, NUGT, DUST, JNUG, JDST) are provided as supplementary, and not as
"final". This means that if a stop-loss or a target level is reached for any of the "additional
instruments" (GLL for instance), but not for the "main instrument" (gold in this case), we will
view positions in both gold and GLL as still open and the stop-loss for GLL would have to be
moved lower. On the other hand, if gold moves to a stop-loss level but GLL doesn't, then we
will view both positions (in gold and GLL) as closed. In other words, since it's not possible to
be 100% certain that each related instrument moves to a given level when the underlying
instrument does, we can't provide levels that would be binding. The levels that we do provide
12 z 13 06.03.2023, 13:02
are our best estimate of the levels that will correspond to the levels in the underlying assets,
but it will be the underlying assets that one will need to focus on regarding the signs pointing
to closing a given position or keeping it open. We might adjust the levels in the "additional
instruments" without adjusting the levels in the "main instruments", which will simply mean
that we have improved our estimation of these levels, not that we changed our outlook on
the markets. We are already working on a tool that would update these levels daily for the
most popular ETFs, ETNs and individual mining stocks.
Our preferred ways to invest in and to trade gold along with the reasoning can be found in
the how to buy gold section. Furthermore, our preferred ETFs and ETNs can be found in our
Gold & Silver ETF Ranking.
As a reminder, Gold & Silver Trading Alerts are posted before or on each trading day (we
usually post them before the opening bell, but we don't promise doing that each day). If
there's anything urgent, we will send you an additional small alert before posting the main
one.
Thank you.
Przemyslaw K. Radomski, CFA

Founder, Editor-in-chief
13 z 13 06.03.2023, 13:02

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Golden Meadow https://www.goldenmeadow.eu/c/gold-trading-alerts/silver-s-subtle-indic...

� Gold Trading Alerts

Przemysław K. Radomski, CFA 5 minutes ago

Silver's Subtle Indication

Consequently, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the above-mentioned breakouts be invalidated

What does it all mean from the broad point of view?

Pretty much nothing.

The bearish outlook remains intact.

Overview of the Upcoming Part of the Decline

Letters to the Editor

discount, please use this link to continue.

As always, we'll keep you – our subscribers – informed.

Silver futures downside profit-take exit price: $17.83

SLV profit-take exit price: $16.73

ZSL profit-take exit price: $32.97

Gold futures downside profit-take exit price: $1,743

Przemyslaw K. Radomski, CFA

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