Biostatistics and Epidemiology

Estimating Populations
Ms. Sherwin Alvaro
January 3, 2022

According to Time Reference

OUTLINE ● Intercensal estimates (between two censuses)
I. Estimating Populations - THIS SPACE LEFT ● Postcensal estimates (after censuses)
a. Purposes INTENTIONALLY BLANK - ● Projections (the latest census is used to predict
b. Types future population)
II. Measures of Changes
a. Natural Increase According to Method
b. Rate of Natural ● Component
Increase ● Mathematical
c. Relative Increase
d. Absolute
II. MEASURES OF CHANGES
increase per year
(b) A. NATURAL INCREASE
e. Annual rate of ● Natural increase in a specific place and time
growth ● It is the difference between the number of births and
III. Method of Estimation deaths which occurred in a specific population within a
a. Component specified period of time
Method ● Formula: Number of births - number of deaths
b. Mathematical ● ex:
Method
IV. Estimating Rate of
Change (r) YEAR 2017
V. Estimating Future
Population Births 1,761,602
VI. Estimating Past
Population Deaths 531,280
VII. Population
Estimation Formula
= 1,761,602 - 531,280

= 1,230,322 persons

Interpretation: There are 1,230,322 persons added to the

population in 2017 through natural means.
I. POPULATION ESTIMATION
● Population Estimation
● Computation of future changes in population
B. RATE OF NATURAL INCREASE
numbers, given certain assumptions about future
● Tells how fast people are added to a population
trends in the rates of fertility, mortality and
over a period of time.
migration.
● It is a natural increase expressed as rate
● Related to Demography
● Formula: Crude birth rate - Crude death rate
○ Demography is the study of the size,
● CBR = (# of registered births in a year)(midyear
territorial distribution, and composition of a
population)x1000
population whose components change
● CDR = (total # of deaths in a year)(midyear
population)x1000
A. PURPOSES OF POPULATION ESTIMATION ● Ex: Determine the rate of natural increase in 2017
● For analysis of various trends
● For measuring shifts in the population
● For determining allocation of public funds or Year 2019
political representation in the government
● For planning Population 98,393,573

CBR 24.4/1000
B. TYPES OF POPULATION ESTIMATION
According to Detail Desired (ex: age, gender, city, etc.) CDR 5.9/1000
● Total population vs subgroups ● = 24.4 - 5.9
● Population by selected characteristics ● = 18.5/1000
● Interpretation: In 2017, 18.5 for every 1000
persons were added to the population through
natural means

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 C. RELATIVE INCREASE The constant rate of change ( r ) is applied at every
● Actual difference between 2 census counts expressed infinitesimal amount of time.
● The computation of our future population and
in percent relative to the population size of the prior
estimating the past population, we will be using the
census
exponential method of the mathematical method of
● In percentage, because you will determine how many estimation.
percent is increased in your population.
● Relative increase Formula IV. ESTIMATING RATE OF CHANGE
○ = (Pt – PO)/PO X 100 ● Exponential
○ Pt = population size at time t ● Formula: r = In (Pt/Po)/t x 100
■ = the current population size ● Pt = future population
○ Po = population size at an initial time, time 0 ● Po = past population
■ = past population or past census ● t = time elapsed
● Example:
D. ABSOLUTE INCREASE PER YEAR ○ Find the rate of change in r in Vigan City from
the year 2005 to 2015 assuming exponential
Estimating Relative & Absolute Increase method.
• Compute for the following given the data below:
Year 2005 2010 2015
● Relative increase from 2010 – 2013
● Absolute increase per year from 2010 – 2013
Census Date May 1, 2005 May 1, 2010 May 1, 2015

Year Population Population 494,534 681,058 929,718

2010 92,337,852
● t = 10 years
● r = ln (Pt/ Po)/t x 100
2013 98,393,574
● = ln (929,718/494,534)/10 x 100
● Relative Increase ● = 6.31 %
○ (Pt – Po)/Po X 100 ● Interpretation: The population increases at a constant
○ = (98,393,574 - 92,337,852) / 92,337,852 x 100 rate of 6.31% from 2005- 2015. Or, the constant rate
○ = 6.56 % of increase of population from 2005-2015 is 6.31%
○ Interpretation: In 2013, the population increased by
6.56% of its original size in 2010. V. ESTIMATING FUTURE POPULATION
● Absolute Increase
● Pt
○ b = (Pt – Po)/t
● Projection of the future population
○ = (98,393,574 - 92,337,852) / 3
● Uses an Exponential method.
○ = 2, 018,574 persons
● Formula: Pt = P0ert
○ Interpretation: An average of 2, 018,574 persons were
● Where: P0 = past population
added to the population every year from 2010-2013.
● t = time elapsed (current time - past time)
E. ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH ● r = rate of change
● Also utilize results of 2 censuses to quantify the amount of ○ *on your calculator: e = shift+ In key
change in population size. ● Example: Assuming the rate of change is 6.30%,
● Assumes that the population is changing at a constant rate determine the projected population size on December
per year. 31, 2025 using exponential method.
● Computation depends on whether the population is assumed ●
to be changing. It can be Arithmetically, Geometrically, or
Exponentially. Year 2015 2025

Census Date May 1, 2015 December 31,

2025
III. METHOD OF ESTIMATION
● Take into account all the operations that can affect
Population 929,718 ?
population size
A. COMPONENT METHOD ● Compute for t
● A.k.a. Inflow-outflow or balancing equation method ○ Subtract, year, month, and day
● Pt = Po + (B – D) + (I – O) ○ =2025-2015; 12-5; 31-1
○ B = births in the interval o & t ○ t=10 + (7/12) + (30/365) = 10.67 years
○ D = deaths in the interval o & t ○ Po=929,718; r=0.063; t=10.67
○ I = immigration between o & t ○ Pt = Poe^rt
○ O = out-migration between o & t
VI. ESTIMATING PAST POPULATION
B. MATHEMATICAL METHOD ● Exponential
● B1: Arithmetic Method: It can use the arithmetic ● Po = Pt/e^rt
method which assumes an equal change every year, ○ Pt = Future Population
there is a constant rate of change every year. ○ t = time elapsed
● B2: Geometric Method: It assumes that the population ○ r = rate of change
changes at the same rate over each unit ● Example:
● B3: Exponential Method: It assumes a constant rate of ● Assuming a rate of change of 6.3%, determine the
change ( r ) and population is increasing continuously. estimated population size on July 31, 2007.

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 ●

Year 2007 2010 2015

Census July 31, May 1, May 1,

Date 2007 2010 2015

Population ? 681,058 929,718

● Compute for t:
○ Subtract year, month, date
○ 2010 - 2007; 5-7; 1-31
○ = 2009 - 2007; 16-7; 31-31
○ t = 2 + (9/12) + 0 = 2.75 years
● Po = Pt/e^rt
○ - 681, 058/e^(0.063x2.75)

VII. POPULATION ESTIMATION FORMULA

Unknown Exponential

Future Population (Pt) Pt = Poe^rt

Past Population (Po) Po = Pt/e^rt

Absolute increase (b) or r = ln (Pt/Po)/t x 100

annual rate of growth (r)

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