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Hyperion Research ISC19 Breakfast Briefing Presentation June 2019
Hyperion Research ISC19 Breakfast Briefing Presentation June 2019
© Hyperion Research 2
Agenda
1. Example Hyperion Research Projects
2. Update on the HPC Market
3. Cloud Computing Update and Our New
Scorecard Tool
4. Quantum Computing Update
5. The Exascale Race
6. The ISC19 Innovation Award Winners
7. Conclusions and Predictions
© Hyperion Research 3
The Hyperion Research Team
© Hyperion Research 4
Hyperion Research HPC Activities
• Track all HPC servers sold each quarter
• By 28 countries
• 4 HPC User Forum meetings each year
• Publish 85 plus research reports each year
• Visit all major supercomputer sites & write reports
• Assist in collaborations between buyers/users and vendors
• Assist governments in HPC plans, strategies and direction
• Assist buyers/users in planning and procurements
• Maintain 5 year forecasts in many areas/topics
• Develop a worldwide ROI measurement system
• HPDA program (includes ML/DL/AI)
• HPC Cloud usage tracking
• Quarterly tracking of GPUs/accelerators
• Cyber Security
• Quantum Computing
• Map applications to algorithms to architectures
© Hyperion Research 5
The HPC User Forum: www.hpcuserforum.com
© Hyperion Research 6
HPC User Forum Steering Committee
© Hyperion Research 7
Plan On Joining Us This Year:
2019 HPC User Forum Meetings
(www.hpcuserforum.com)
Plus China in August
September 9-11
Argonne National Laboratory
(Chicago area)
October 7-8
CSCS: Swiss National
Supercomputing Center (Lugano)
October 10-11
EPCC
(Edinburgh)
© Hyperion Research 2019 8
Sample Projects
© Hyperion Research 9
HPDA & AI Key Takeaway:
Most Economically Important Use Cases
Precision Medicine
Affinity Marketing
Business Intelligence
Cyber Security
IoT
© Hyperion Research 10
High Growth Areas:
HPDA-AI (May 2019)
© Hyperion Research 12
HPDA Algorithm Report: Mapping Algorithms
to Verticals & System Requirements
https://hyperionresearch.com/proceed-to-download/?doctodown=hpda-algorithm-report
© Hyperion Research 13
HPDA Algorithm Report: Mapping Algorithms
to Verticals & System Requirements
https://hyperionresearch.com/proceed-to-download/?doctodown=hpda-algorithm-report
© Hyperion Research 14
HPDA Algorithm Report: Mapping Algorithms
to Verticals & System Requirements
https://hyperionresearch.com/proceed-to-download/?doctodown=hpda-algorithm-report
© Hyperion Research 15
Finding HPC Centers (Map)
www.HyperionResearch.com/us-hpc-centers-activity/
© Hyperion Research B 16
Our Forecast On When & Where Exascale
Systems Will Be Installed
© Hyperion Research 17
QC Documents are Starting to Roll Out
© Hyperion Research 18
A New Cloud Application Assessment Tool
https://hyperionresearch.com/cloud-application-assessment-tool/
© Hyperion Research A 19
Price/Performance Trends of the
Largest Supercomputers
© Hyperion Research 20
Tipping Points: How Quickly HPC
Buyers Can Change
© Hyperion Research 21
Tracking New AI Hardware: Emergence
of AI-Specific Hardware Ecosystem
© Hyperion Research E 23
Top Trends in HPC
© Hyperion Research 24
The Worldwide HPC Server Market:
$13.7 Billion in 2018
▪ Record revenues!
HPC
Servers
$13.7B
Supercomputers
(Over $500K) Workgroup
$5.4B (under $100K)
$2.0B
Divisional Departmental
($250K - $500K) ($250K - $100K)
$2.5B $3.9B
© Hyperion Research 25
2018 HPC Market By Verticals
© Hyperion Research 26
HPC Market By Vendor Shares
© Hyperion Research 27
HPC Market By Regions
(US $ Millions)
© Hyperion Research 28
The Broader HPC Market Forecast
© Hyperion Research 29
The Total HPC Market Including Public
Cloud Spending
▪ TOTAL HPC spending grew from $22B in 2013 to $26B in 2017, and
is projected to reach $44B in 2022
© Hyperion Research 30
HPC Cloud Forecasts
© Hyperion Research A 31
Major Trend
HPC in the Cloud
▪ Over 70% of HPC sites run some jobs in public clouds
• Up from 13% in 2011
▪ Over 10% of all HPC jobs are now running in clouds
• Public clouds are cost-effective for some jobs, but up to
10x more expensive for others
• Key concerns: security, data loss
▪ Private and hybrid cloud use is growing faster
▪ Large public clouds are going heterogeneous – and are
getting much better at running a broader set of HPC
workloads
• AWS with Ryft FPGAs, Google with NVIDIA GPGPUs,
Microsoft with Cray & Bright
© Hyperion Research 32
Top Reasons for Using External Clouds
© Hyperion Research 33
How we Developed the HPC Cloud
Forecast
▪ A public cloud, as we define it, is any large, third-
party cloud that sits outside of an organization's
firewall and is accessible in return for payment
by anyone over the public Internet
• And is owned by a different organization
• It excludes private clouds
▪ Our market forecast is from the point of view of
the end user
• The amount end users spend in public clouds
• It’s not a measure of the hardware within the clouds
© Hyperion Research 34
HPC Public Cloud Forecast
© Hyperion Research 35
What We Often Hear
“I’m worried about data security and data loss in the cloud.”
© Hyperion Research 37
About This Tool
▪ This tool is designed to help users decide between two
popular environments for running HPC workloads:
• On premise facilities or in public clouds.
▪ The metrics and observations are drawn from our
global research and interactions with end users, CSPs
and other members of the worldwide HPC community.
▪ The scorecard at the end of this slide deck allows users
to record their responses concerning each application
or workload they evaluate using this tool.
Hyperion Research offers this tool without charge to the HPC community, in
the hope that it will be useful.
We welcome feedback on the tool: Contact Alex Norton,
anorton@hyperionres.com
© Hyperion Research 38
How to Use This Tool
▪ To use the tool, you select a number on each
scale (between 0 to 10) for each attribute, and
then average them for an overall score.
• The tool consists of a series of “sliders" that you can
select between the two end points for each workload
you use the tool to evaluate: “Public Cloud Favored”
or “On Premise Favored.”
• The scorecard at the end shows where your overall
evaluation falls:
▪ A lower score favors the on-prem option
▪ A higher score favors the public clouds option
© Hyperion Research 39
Tool Scorecard
© Hyperion Research 40
Next Steps
✓ Provided as an online tool
➢ Go To: www.HyperionResearch.com (Special Projects)
© Hyperion Research 41
Quantum Computing
© Hyperion Research 2018 PRIVATE INFORMATION FOR DESIGNATED U.S. GOVERNMENT RECIPIENTS B 42
This Effort is an Amplification of Long-Term
Coverage of QC by Hyperion Research
© Hyperion Research 43
The Promise of QC is Substantial…
QC systems have the potential to exceed the performance
of conventional computers for problems of importance to
humankind and businesses alike in areas such as:
• Cybersecurity
• Materials science
• Chemistry
• Pharmaceuticals
• Machine learning
• Optimization
• D Wave • Rigetti
• IBM • Microsoft
• Google • Quantum Diamond
• Quantum Circuits Technologies
• ionQ • ATOS/Bull
• Intel • More….
© Hyperion Research 2018 PRIVATE INFORMATION FOR DESIGNATED U.S. GOVERNMENT RECIPIENTS 51
Projected Exascale System Dates
U.S. EU
▪ Sustained ES*: 2022-2023 ▪ PEAK ES: 2023-2024
▪ Peak ES: 2021 ▪ Pre-ES: 2020-2022 (~$125M)
▪ Vendors: US and then European
▪ ES Vendors: U.S.
▪ Processors: x86, ARM & RISC-V
▪ Processors: U.S. (some ARM?) ▪ Initiatives: EuroHPC, EPI, ETP4HPC, JU
▪ Cost: $500M-$600M per system ▪ Cost: Over $300M per system, plus heavy
(for early systems), plus heavy R&D investments
R&D investments
China Japan
▪ Sustained ES*: 2021-2022 ▪ Sustained ES*: ~2021/2022
▪ Peak ES: 2020 ▪ Peak ES: Likely as a AI/ML/DL system
▪ Vendors: Chinese (multiple sites) ▪ Vendors: Japanese
▪ Processors: Chinese (plus U.S.?) ▪ Processors: Japanese ARM
▪ 13th 5-Year Plan ▪ Cost: ~$1B, this includes both 1 system
▪ Cost: $350-$500M per system, and the R&D costs
plus heavy R&D ▪ They will also do many smaller size
systems
China Japan
▪ Over $1billion a year in R&D (at ▪ Planned investment of over
least $10 billion over 7 years) $1billion* (over 5 years) for both the
▪ Investments by both R&D and purchase of 1 exascale
governments & vendors system
▪ Plans are to purchases multiple ▪ To be followed by a number of
smaller systems ~$100M to $150M
exascale systems each year each
▪ Investing in 3 pre-exascale ▪ Creating a new processor and a
systems starting in late 2018 new software environment
* Note that this includes both the system and R&D
© Hyperion Research 53
US Exascale Plans
Frontier El Capitan NSF
A21 A22 (OLCF5) (ATS-4) NERSC-10 Frontera
Follow-on
Location ANL ANL ORNL LLNL LBNL/NER TACC
SC
Planned Delivery 2022 Q1 2022 2022 Q1 2022 2024 2024
Date/ Estimated
Early Operation 2022, Q2 2023 2022, Q3 2023 2025 2025
High Performance
Conjugate Gradient 20.0-22.5 19.5-26.0 18-36 48-72 52-78 74
(PFlops/s)
© Hyperion Research 54
Chinese Exascale Plans
Sunway 2020 Sugon Exascale NUDT 2020
Planned Delivery Date/ 2020, 4Q (could slip 1- 2020, 4Q (could slip 2020, 4Q (could slip
Estimated 1.5 years) 1-1.5 years) 1-1.5 years)
High Performance
Conjugate Gradient 6-7 9.4-10.1 14-16
(Pflops/s)
© Hyperion Research 55
EU Exascale Plans
© Hyperion Research 56
In Comparison: European Growth Compared To
USA Growth In Acquiring Supercomputers
© Hyperion Research 57
The European JU Plan
© Hyperion Research 58
New EU Processors
© Hyperion Research 59
EPI Roadmap Targets Inclusion in Pre-
and Full-Exascale Supercomputers
© Hyperion Research A 62
Our Award Program
© Hyperion Research 63
Examples Of Previous Winners
© Hyperion Research 64
The Trophy For Winners
65
HPC Award Program Goals
▪ #1 Help to expand the use of HPC by showing real ROI
examples:
▪ Expand the “Missing Middle” – SMBs, SMSs, etc. by providing
examples of what can be done with HPC
▪ Show mainstream and leading edge HPC success stories
© Hyperion Research 67
ISC19 Winners:
HPC User Innovation Awards
© Hyperion Research 68
Massively Parallel Evolutionary Computation
for Empowering Electoral Reform: Quantifying
Gerrymandering via Multi-objective
Optimization and Statistical Analysis
© LLNL, 2019 71
© Hyperion Research
Hidden Earthquake Research
Caltech team: Zachary Ross, Daniel Trugman,
Egill Hauksson, Peter Shearer
© Hyperion Research 72
We Invite Everyone
To Apply For The Next Round Of
Innovation Awards!
© Hyperion Research 73
In Summary:
Some Predictions
For the Next Year
© Hyperion Research 74
The Exascale Race
Will Drive New Technologies
© Hyperion Research 82
Thank You!
QUESTIONS?
INFO@HYPERIONRES.COM
© Hyperion Research 83
Visit Our Website: www.HyperionResearch.com
Twitter: HPC_Hyperion@HPC_Hyperion
© Hyperion Research 84