Quiz 2 ISI3A3 (Manajemen Rantai Pasok)

(60 menit)
IQO
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Jawaban boleh menggunakan bahasa Indonesia
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Nama Mahasiswa: NIM: Kelas: Nilai (Diisi Dosen):
……………………………............... ……………………....... ………….

1. The LawnPlus Fertilizer Company distributes fertilizer to various lawn and garden shops. The company must
base its quarterly production schedule on a forecast of how many tons of fertilizer will be demanded from it.
The company has gathered the following data for the past three years from its sales records.

Formula
Moving Average Weighted Moving Average Forecast Error Cumulative Error
n n
et = Dt − Ft E =  et
D i WMAn = Wi Di
MAn = i =1 i =1 D = demand
n F = forecast

Question
a. Compute a three-quarter moving average forecast for quarters 4 through 13 and compute the forecast
error for each quarter.
b. Compute a five-quarter moving average forecast for quarters 6 through 13 and compute the forecast
error for each quarter.
c. Compute a weighted three-quarter moving average forecast using weights of 0.50, 0.33, and 0.17 for the
d. most recent, next recent, and most distant data, respectively, and compute the forecast error for each
quarter.
e. Compare the forecasts developed in parts (a), (b), and (c) using cumulative error. Which forecast appears
to be most accurate?
 Nama Mahasiswa: NIM: Kelas:
Quiz 2 SEH3A3
……………………………............... ……………………....... ………… (Manajemen Rantai Pasok)

2. For the demand in question 1, compute a linear trend line and develop a seasonally adjusted forecast for
demand in year 4.

Formula
Linear Trend Line Least Squares Seasonal Factor Seasonally Adjusted Forecast
y = a + bx  xy − nxy Si =
Di SFi = ( Si )( Ft )
b=
 x − nx
2 2
D
a = y − bx

Hint
After compute a linear trend line, complete the following table before develop a seasonally adjusted forecast
 Nama Mahasiswa: NIM: Kelas:
Quiz 2 SEH3A3
……………………………............... ……………………....... ………… (Manajemen Rantai Pasok)

3. A firm is faced with the attractive situation in which it can obtain immediate delivery of an item it stocks for
retail sale. The firm has therefore not bothered to order the item in any systematic way. However, recently
profits have been squeezed due to increasing competitive pressures, and the firm has retained a management
consultant to study its inventory management. The consultant has determined that the various costs
associated with making an order for the item stocked are approximately $70 per order. She has also
determined that the costs of carrying the item in inventory amount to approximately $27 per unit per year
(primarily direct storage costs and forgone profit on investment in inventory). Demand for the item is
reasonably constant over time, and the forecast is for 16,500 units per year. When an order is placed for the
item, the entire order is immediately delivered to the firm by the supplier. The firm operates 6 days a week
plus a few Sundays, or approximately 320 days per year.

Formula
Basic EOQ Model
Orders per year =
D
Order cycle time =
 days
2Co D Qopt
Qopt = D / Qopt
Cc
Co D Cc Q
TC = +
Q 2

Question
Determine the following:
a. Optimal order quantity per order
b. Total annual inventory costs
c. Optimal number of orders to place per year
d. Number of operating days between orders, based on the optimal ordering