Assignment 3 - 5% Due on March 16 by 8am (no exceptions if late)

Please submit on Blackboard

Read the following article from Environics and answer the question
How will changing demographics specifically affect media planning? Which one(s)
will have the greatest impact? Why and how?

Canada 2020 and Beyond

What marketers should know about changing demographics
 
The size and makeup of Canada’s population are continuously changing in response to
various demographic trends. Understanding these trends is essential for making
decisions, such as where to locate a new facility or how to determine the best mix of
product and service offerings. And more change is ahead. Here is what to expect over
the next decade.

Population growth
In 2019 Canada’s population is estimated to be 37.6 million. For many years the annual
growth rate has averaged around 1% a year; however, recent growth has increased to
1.4% a year as a result of higher immigration. But going forward there will likely be a
slowdown in population growth as a result of the increasing number of deaths due to our
aging population.

Future population growth is likely to be highest in the largest metropolitan areas that
attract most immigrants. Other urban areas will likely grow at below average rates while
there may be an increasing number of rural and small-town areas that experience
population declines. These different growth patterns point to possibilities for business
expansion in large urban areas but perhaps some consolidation in small town and rural
areas. In the larger urban areas, the increasing popularity of high-rise condos in the
downtowns will likely result in increasing demand of tech-enabled services, such as
online grocery stores and transportation alternatives like Uber, car-sharing and
bicyclesharing. 

An aging population
The population aged 65 and over will increase by close to 60% over the period 2019-
2036 as compared to an increase of under 10% for the younger population. This means
that the older households’ share of consumer expenditures will also increase and
marketing to the older population will be increasingly important for the bottom line.
The aging of the suburbs presents challenges for both businesses and governments.
Companies will likely experience a change in product needs as young families are
replaced by empty nesting couples and older women living on their own.

Marketers, more than ever, will need to identify smaller niche markets. And businesses
offering e-shopping and home delivery of products targeted to seniors are likely to
become even more popular. With a population characterized by decreased mobility and
many seniors living alone, municipalities will also face a need for better public
transportation and more programs oriented to seniors.

The growing older population in their 70s and 80s is also likely to have a significant
impact on the real estate industry as they look for suitable accommodations for their
later years. Some will decide to downsize, others move to a retirement community or
retirement home while still others will decide to remain in their homes but renovate to
make them more accessible.

Regardless of location, the older population will increasingly look at new technology
devices, such as monitoring devices or robotic adaptive living products, that will support
and enable them to live longer and more independently in the community.

Aside from the high growth at older ages, marketers need to recognize the change in
population sizes at the younger ages. The most dramatic change is expected to be a
decline of 8% in the population aged 55-64 as this smaller “baby bust” generation
replaces the larger Boomer cohort ahead of them. This smaller cohort will also cause
only a slight increase in the younger age group, 25-34, who are the children of the baby
bust cohort.

Future growth expected to slowly

decline due to aging population
Immigration and cultural diversity
Today, 23% of the population are immigrants: the highest since Confederation. Over
much of the past decade immigration averaged 250,000 permanent residents a year;
however, the numbers have increased in recent years in direct response to government
policy.

For the past two decades, China, India and the Philippines were the top countries for
immigration. For the period 2001-2015, China and India averaged around 30,000
immigrants per year while immigration from the Philippines increased from 14,000 in
2001 to 50,000 in 2015. In the last few years though, immigration from the Philippines
has declined to 27,000 in 2019, immigration from China is estimated at 31,000 in 2019
and immigration from India has increased substantially and is expected to reach 80,000
in 2019.

Past immigration trends have resulted in a changing face of Canada, especially in the
larger metropolitan areas. In 2019, the “visible minority” population is now a majority in
both the Toronto and Vancouver urban areas.

However, as immigration spreads out and more immigrants are attracted to places other
than Toronto and Vancouver, cultural diversity is increasing in other metropolitan areas.
The visible minority population accounts for close to 40% of the population of Calgary
and from 20%-35% of the population in 11 different metropolitan areas. With
immigration accounting for most of the future growth of the population, the cultural
diversity of Canada’s larger urban areas will continue to increase.
With Canada’s population drawn from many parts of the world, marketers need to
understand how the needs and preferences of immigrants vary. Their past may shape
the way new consumers hear and interpret messages, and marketers will need to
consider these influences when developing promotion campaigns. A related question for
consideration is the extent to which various groups consume ethnic media. Increasing
diversity presents both opportunities and challenges for marketers.

Recent increase in number of permanent

resident immigrants

A minority of households with children

It is estimated that in 2019 less than 40% of households have children at home.
Approximately 28% of households are one-person households and 26% are couples
without children.

For the future, there is likely to be little change in the number of households with
children, while there should be a considerable increase in the number of empty nest
couples and perhaps a modest increase in one-person households. Smaller and older
households have implications for packaging size as well as the labelling and design of
products.

Growth likely to be in multigeneration

and empty nest couples

Women
Today, most women are in the paid labour force and the female labour force is
increasingly educated. Women now account for 53% of the university-educated labour
force and an increasing share of all managerial and professional occupations.
The high level of labour force participation, coupled with increasing levels of education, resulted in higher
income increases for women over the period 2001- 2017; median income increased by 27% in real terms
compared to a rise of only 6% for males. However, there remains a considerable wage gap. But the
increasing income of women means that their share of total income continues to rise, reaching 42% in
2017 compared with 25% in 1976.

Young women with increased spending power will look for ways of better balancing
work and family pressures but will also be looking to spend on themselves. In the mid-
age years (25-64), over one third are either lone parents or are living in a non-family
environment. These women have considerable spending power. And the large group of
older Baby Boom women are a new breed of older female consumers. They are well
educated, many having been in the labour force, and now with increased leisure time in
an empty nest or solo living environment, they are looking for experiences and products
that they could not afford while bringing up their children.
A look at the generations
In Canada, we can define the generations as PreBoomers (age 74+ in 2019), Boomers
(54-73), Gen X (40-53), Millennials (24-39) and Gen Z (under 24). Relatively little can be
said about the youngest Generation Z, many of whom are living at home and still in
school. However, over the next decade, this generation of digital natives will replace the
Millennials as a focus for marketers.
Millennials
Today there are 8.3 million Millennials, but it is vital to recognize the diversity within the
generation. Older Millennials are established in their jobs, have started families and
have purchased their first homes, often in the suburbs. On the other hand, many
younger Millennials are still in school or have recently graduated and are more likely to
be found living alone in downtown apartments and condos. Family life and suburban
living are ahead of them over the next decade.
Gen X
Sometimes referred to as the forgotten generation, Gen Xers are well established in
their careers and family life and are struggling to balance the two. Over the next
decade, they will be in their prime earning years and will account for a high level of
expenditures.
Boomers
In 2019 Boomers numbered 9.3 million. Like Millennials, Boomers are a very diverse
group. Younger Boomers are mostly employed and have older children living at home.
Over the next decade they will face decisions about retirement and how to live out the
next 20-30 years. Many of the older Boomers are retired and many are living as empty
nesters or in the case of women, living alone.

In the past marketers and advertisers have virtually ignored the older population,
instead focusing on the young Millennials. However, marketers are slowly recognizing
the potential of the older population.

But successfully marketing to this population requires that businesses change their
historical approach. The Boomers are very different than their predecessors. They are
more educated, more demanding and many have good incomes and considerable
wealth. They look to enjoy their retirement years, filling it with many learning or leisure
activities that they couldn’t do or perhaps afford while fully employed and raising a
family. In many ways, they can be said to be re-defining retirement years. And they
don’t want to be perceived as “old” but instead, view themselves as active and
productive with much to contribute. Advertisers take note!

The consumer base will continue to evolve over the next decade and businesses will
need to assess how the many trends play out in their trade or service areas. The
growth, or in some cases the decline of the population, the changing age structure of
consumers, the evolving cultural mix and the changing roles of women will all need to
be carefully monitored by organizations if they plan to succeed in the coming years.

Older households age 65 and older will

increase their share of spending to
nearly 25 percent