Samudera Logistics Brief

October 2022 – Vol. 008

Executive Summary Samudera Indonesia

Research Initiatives (SIRI)
1. The risk of a global recession has the potential to hamper Indonesia's trade and shipping
industry activities in 2022 and 2023. Disruptions from Indonesia's 11 main trading Address: Samudera Indonesia
partners have the potential to (1) slow down the growth of loading activities of foreign Building 7th floor Jl. Letjen S.
Parman Kav. 35, Jakarta 11480,
shipping goods at Indonesian ports to the range of 0.78%-3.03% YoY in 2022 and continue Indonesia
to slow down in the range of 0.47%-1.69% YoY in 2023 and (2) slow down the activities of
Telp: +6221 5480088
unloading goods for overseas shipping at Indonesian ports to 0.60%-1.67% YoY in 2022 Email: research@samudera.id
and rebound in the range of 0.66% -1.81% YoY in 2023. Instagram: samudera.research
2. In September - October 2022, sentiments that affect global economic developments are Denny Irawan, Ph.D.
high inflation in various countries and the energy crisis ahead of winter. denny.irawan@samudera.id
3. Amid increasing global risks, domestic economic activity is still well maintained. Public Keliek Pudjiasmoro
optimism in consuming is still well maintained. At the same time, manufacturing activity keliek.pudjiasmoro@samudera.id

continues to show an expansionary movement. Adithya Prabowo

adithya.prabowo@samudera.id
4. In October 2022, the downward trend in the container segment continues. Meanwhile,
improvements in the dry bulk shipping industry continued. Similar improvement was also Muhamad Pudjianto
muhamad.pudjianto@samudera.id
seen in the wet bulk shipping industry for the transportation of raw commodities,
Pradynda Rahnia Said
although the transportation of processed commodities showed a decline. Pradynda.said@samudera.id
5. The price of ship fuel as reflected in the Singapore VLSFO Bunker Price recorded an Meita Rosa Indah
increase in October'22. meitarosaindah@gmail.com
Ghaitsa Qotrunnada Wisfah
Global Recession Risks to Indonesia's Shipping Industry ghaitsaq17@gmail.com

Global Economic and Trade Expectations (Figure 1). This slowdown phenomenon is
2022 is a year of economic recovery that is
still overshadowed by global risk pressures.
The geopolitical uncertainty between Russia
and Ukraine has disrupted global trade flows
relating to the two countries. Meanwhile, the
normalization of monetary policy carried out
simultaneously by various world central
banks has ushered in an era of increasing
interest rates amidst persistently high
inflation rates in several countries. These
risks are predicted to still have an impact
until the end of 2022 and continue into 2023.
The October 2022 World Economic Outlook
report released by the IMF stated that global
economic activity was recorded to have
experienced a broad and sharper slowdown
than expected and the outlook will still face
challenges from existing risks.
IMF predicts that the global economy in 2022
will grow by 3.2% YoY, slowing down
compared to 2021 which grew by 6.0% YoY
expected to continue in 2023 with a growth
of 2.7% YoY. At the same time, the
expectation of a global economic slowdown
will reduce global demand for global trade
activities, both in terms of exports and
imports. The IMF also estimates that the
volume of trade in goods and services will
slow down in 2022 and 2023 with only 4.3%
YoY and 2.5% YoY growth respectively (Figure
2). If we look more closely, the expectation of
a global economic slowdown will have more
impact on the volume of exports of goods
than the volume of imports of goods. The
export volume globally is expected to grow
lower than the import volume. Throughout
2022, the volume of exports of goods is
estimated to only grow by 2.0% YoY, while
the volume of imports of goods can still grow
by 3.8% YoY despite slowing down compared
to 2021.
Economic Indicators Oct ’22:
Foreign Investment Q2 ’22:
USD 11,370 Million
QoQ: +100.51%| YoY: +72.86%
Domestic Investment Q2 ’22:
IDR 139,017 Billion
QoQ: +2.84% | YoY: +25.15%
World PMI: 49.70 Point
MoM: 0,81%| YoY: -7.76%
ASEAN PMI: 52.30 Point
MoM: +0,19% | YoY: +17.87%
Indonesia PMI: 53.70 Point
MoM: +3,87% | YoY: +2.87%
Indonesia CPI: 111.57 Point
MoM: -0.21% | YoY: +4.69%
Export (Value):
USD 24.800 Million
MoM: -11.13% | YoY: +20.36%
Import (Value):
USD 19,810 Million
MoM: -10.56% | YoY: +22.03%
Export Volume Sept ’22:
61,002 Thousand Ton
MoM: +7.91% | YoY: +5.20%
Import Volume Sept ’22:
15.369 Thousand Ton
MoM: -5.45% | YoY: +34.27%

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Furthermore, these two trading activities are Industrial Indicators Okt ’22:
also expected to maintain limited growth in
2023 where both will only grow by 2.0% YoY. LSCI Indonesia Q3 ’22:
39.84 Point
QoQ: +3.86%| YoY: +4,14%
Container Freight Rate Index:
USD 2,373/FEUs
MoM: -41.44% | YoY: -33.16%
Coal Freight Rate Index:
USD 13/Ton
MoM: -21,28% | YoY: -41.67%
Dirty Tanker Rate Index:
USD 115/Mt
MoM: 10.84% | YoY: +145.59%

Figure 1. Global Economic Growth Projection 2022-2023 (% YoY) Clean Tanker Rate Index:
Source: IMF WEO October 2022 (processed by SIRI) USD 262/Mt
MoM: -13.51% | YoY: +127.05%
Container Charter Rate Index:
3,531 Point
MoM: 37.61% | YoY: 8.08%
Goods and Services Trade Volume Goods Import Volume Goods Export Volume
11.3 Baltic Dry Index:
10.1 10.2 1,837 Point
MoM: 13.96% | YoY: -62.26%
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index:
4.3 3.8 1,725 Point
2.0 2.5 2.0 2.0 MoM: 17.83% | YoY: 155.71%
Baltic Clean Tanker Index:
2021 2022f 2023f 1,231 Point
MoM: -2.69% | YoY: +161.81%
Container Vessel Price Index:
Figure 2. Projected Global Trade Volume Growth 2022-2023 (% YoY) 13,093 Point
Source: IMF WEO October 2022 (processed by SIRI) MoM: -7.41% | YoY: 13.49%
Dry Bulk Vessel Price Index:
304 Point
MoM: 0.47% | YoY: -11.95%
Tanker Vessel Price Index:
460 Point
MoM: -0.69% | YoY: +59.31%
Singapore VLSFO Bunker Price:
USD 720/Mt
MoM: -4.54% | YoY: +15.64%

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Potential Impacts on Trade and Shipping Industry
Activities in Indonesia
The risk of a global economic slowdown will result in a
decrease in global trade volume which will affect Indonesia's
trading activities. One of the transmission channels is through
the impact of weakening demand and supply originating from
Indonesia's main trading partners. Based on ITC trademap
data, there are 11 countries that are Indonesia's main trading
Table 1. Outlook of Indonesia's Major Trading Partners (%YoY)
Source: ITC Trademap and IMF WEO October 2022 (processed by SIRI)
Internal and external factors in each country made the
impact of the economic slowdown differ in the growth of
trade volume. Table 1 shows that 10 of Indonesia's 11 main
trading partner countries will experience a slowdown in the
volume growth of imports of goods in 2022. Only Singapore is
predicted to continue to experience an increase in 2022.
China and Taipei/Taiwan are expected to experience a
rebound in the volume growth of imports of goods in 2023.
Meanwhile, Singapore is expected to continue to experience
an increase until 2023. Changes in the volume growth of
imports of goods in partner countries need to be observed
and anticipated so that the volume of Indonesian exports will
not be disrupted.
Samudera Logistics Brief
October 2022 – Vol. 008
partners where trade activities with these eleven countries
account for 73.28% of Indonesia's total exports and 75.57%
of Indonesia's total imports in 2021. The IMF report also
shows that 7 of the 11 trading partners are predicted to
experience an economic slowdown in 2022. Only Japan,
Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand are predicted to still grow
better than in 2021. Furthermore, the IMF estimates that the
increase in Thailand’s economic growth can continue until
2023.
Table 1 also shows that Indonesia's eleven main trading
partners will experience a slowdown in the volume growth of
exports of goods in 2022. However, the IMF estimates that
the rebound from the export side is better than the import
side. This is reflected in the expectation that 7 of the 11
countries are expected to succeed in increasing the growth of
their export volume in 2023. The seven countries are China,
India, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, Taipei/Taiwan, and
Australia. Changes in the volume growth of export of goods in
partner countries also need to be observed and anticipated
considering that the changes will affect the supply for
imports of Indonesian goods.
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Samudera Indonesia Research Initiatives (SIRI) sees that the Conclusions and Recommendations
risk of a slowdown in trade volume among Indonesia's eleven
The results of SIRI's analysis show that the Indonesian
main trading partners will have an impact on the activities of
shipping industry will be affected by the risk of economic
the Indonesian Shipping Industry. This is based on the large
slowdown and global trade volume. This global risk
role of sea transportation modes in Indonesia's export and
transmission will enter through the weakening of economic
import activities. Statistics Indonesia (BPS) data shows that
activity and trade of Indonesia's main trading partners so it
sea transportation dominates 94.66% of the total export
will also have an impact on bilateral trade activities between
value and 98.98% of Indonesia's total export volume in 2021.
Indonesia and these trading partners. The shipping industry
At the same time, sea transportation also dominates 88.05%
itself will feel the impact through weakening demand from
of the import value and 99.51% of Indonesia's import
major trading partners for the transportation of Indonesian
volume. This condition shows that the Indonesian shipping
exports of goods and the weakening of the supply of major
industry as reflected in sea transportation modes will be
trading partners for the transportation of Indonesian imports
more vulnerable to global economic turmoil than other
of goods. All these activities will be reflected in the loading
transportation modes.
and unloading activities of overseas shipping at Indonesian
This risk will certainly have the potential to hamper the ports.
loading and unloading activities of foreign shipping goods at
SIRI estimates that the disruption in demand from major
Indonesian ports. Statistics Indonesia (BPS) noted that the
trading partners for Indonesian exports of goods has the
unloading activities of overseas shipping at Indonesian ports
potential to cause loading activities for overseas shipping at
had reached 95.16 million tons in 2020, a decrease of -8.96%
Indonesian ports to only grow in the range of 0.78%-3.03%
compared to 2019 (Figure 3). This decline was due to the
YoY in 2022 and slowdown in 2023 in the range of 0.47%-
COVID-19 pandemic which suppressed domestic industrial
1.69% YoY. The expectation of a continued slowdown in
activity, thereby limiting demand for imported goods, which
loading activities until 2023 is in line with the expectations of
in turn reduced unloading activities at ports. However, with
the majority of Indonesia's main trading partners, which will
global economic developments that can still provide demand
continue to experience a slowdown in the volume growth of
for Indonesian exports of goods, the loading activities of
imports of goods until 2023. Meanwhile, disruptions in the
foreign shipping goods at Indonesian ports were recorded at
supply of major trading partners for Indonesian imports of
358.61 million tons in 2020, or an increase of 2.73%
goods have the potential to cause unloading activities for
compared to 2019.
overseas shipping at Indonesian ports to only grow in the
range of 0.60%-1.67% YoY in 2022 and slightly improved in
2023 with growth in the range of 0.66%-1.81% YoY. The
expectation of a rebound in unloading activities in 2023 is in
line with the expectations of the majority of Indonesia's main
trading partners which will begin to experience an increase in
the volume growth of exports of goods in 2023.

Figure 3. Development of Loading and Unloading Activities of

Overseas Shipping Goods at Indonesian Ports (Thousand Tons)
Source: Statistics Indonesia-BPS (processed by SIRI)

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Table 2. Projection of Loading and Unloading Activities of Overseas Shipping Goods at Indonesian Ports in 2022-2023

Source : SIRI Estimation Results

The risk of a slowdown in loading and unloading activities of

overseas shipping at Indonesian ports requires anticipatory
steps from all stakeholders, especially for 2023. The
government needs to prepare an export concentration
strategy for major trading partner countries that are
expected to experience an increase in the volume growth of
imports of goods in 2023, such as China, Singapore, and
Taipei/Taiwan. At the same time, the Government and the
private sector can work together to obtain long-term export
contracts in 2023 with other major trading partners who are
expected to experience a slowdown in the volume growth of
imported goods. The same thing can also be done for the
import side where the government can assist the private
sector in mapping import needs in 2023. This mapping of
import needs can be the basis for supporting the acquisition
of long-term import contracts with Indonesia's main trading
partners, which are expected to experience a slowdown in
the volume growth of exports of goods in 2023, such as the
United States, Japan, Korea, and Thailand.

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Global dan National Economic Review

Sentiments that affect global economic developments in of weak demand for new workers and shrinking international
September-October 2022 are high inflation in various trade flows.
countries and the energy crisis leading up to winter which
can lead to a recession. Although the inflation rate of the
United States showed a downward trend of 8.2% YoY in
September'22, it was still above the market forecast of 8.1%
YoY. This shows that inflationary pressure is still high, as
shown in core inflation excluding volatile food and energy,
which rose to 6.6%, the highest since August 1982. High
inflationary pressure also continued in several other
developed countries such as Germany (10.0 % YoY) and the
Figure 4. Global Composite Output Index and Inflation in Some
European Union (10.9% YoY). Energy prices that are still high Developed Countries
due to tensions between western countries and Russia have Sources: Bloomberg, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan (processed by SIRI)
also affected global sentiment. The energy crisis that occurs
as European Union countries are preparing for winter has
Indonesia's inflation rate in September 2022 increased to
sparked global concern.
5.95% YoY (+1.26% MoM) due to the adjustment of fuel
prices (BBM). Although the actual inflation rate was not as
China's economic slowdown continues and has the potential high as the initial forecast, it was still the highest inflation
to put additional pressure on the global economy. As of rate since October 2015. Volatile food inflation was
September 2022, China's economic activity slowed as seen in maintained at 9.02% (YoY) in line with the synergy and policy
the Composite PMI Index and China's Manufacturing PMI coordination through the TPIP-TPID and the National
which contracted to 48.50 and 48.10 levels. It saw output fall Movement for Food Inflation Control (GNPIP) to ensure
supply availability and smooth distribution. The increase in
for the first time in four months, new orders shrank by the
administered prices inflation was also not as high as
most since April, and export sales fell at the steepest rate in predicted at 13.28% (YoY) with inflation realization of 6.84%
four months. In addition, companies cut their purchasing YoY in September'22 in line with the adjustment of fuel prices
activities and inventories, while employment also fell the and lower transportation fares. However, an increase in core
most since April 2020. Coupled with the yuan falling against inflation continues to strengthen Indonesia's monetary policy
the US dollar by 7.25 per dollar, this affected investor course towards a contractionary direction.
confidence and could trigger uncertainty in the global
The optimism of the Indonesian people is maintained (index
economy. financial market
> 100) despite a decline in the consumer confidence index
(IKK) in September 2022, which was 117.2 from the previous
Global economic activity is still in a contraction phase, as month at 124.7. The well-maintained consumer expectation
reflected by J.P. The Morgan Global Composite Output index (CEI) and the current economic index of 126.1 and
Index was at the level of 49.70 in September 2022. Although 108.3 respectively have contributed to sustaining public
this level showed an improvement on a monthly basis optimism in September 2022. In addition, Indonesia's
compared to August 2022 which was at the level of 49.30, manufacturing production activity is still showing a positive
negative sentiment still pressured the global economy. trend and is still at a low level. the expansion phase is even
Developed countries have experienced output contraction for higher than the achievements of the world and ASEAN.
the first time since June 2020. Weak global economic activity Indonesia's Manufacturing PMI Index increased to a level of
was also seen in the global purchasing manager index (PMI) 53.7 in September 2022, relatively higher than the global
which recorded a level below 50 since June 2020 as a result achievement (49.8) and ASEAN achievement (53.5).

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oil and gas sector of US$2.10 billion in September 2022.

Indonesia's exports in September 2022 reached
US$24.80 billion (-10.99% MoM and +20.28% YoY), the
largest monthly decline in export value occurred in
animal/vegetable fats and oils, while the increase
occurred in metal ore, slag, and ash amounting to
US$ 238.1 million. By sector, non-oil and gas exports
from the manufacturing industry in January–September
2022 rose 22.23% YoY, as well as exports of agricultural,
forestry and fishery products rose 15.37 percent, and
exports of mining and other products rose 91.98
percent., indicating an economic recovery. On the other
hand, Indonesia's import value in September 2022 was
US$19.81 billion (-10.58% MoM and +22.01% YoY), and
Figure 5. World, ASEAN, and Indonesia PMI the largest decline in imports of non-oil and gas goods in
Source: IHS Markit (processed by SIRI)
September 2022 occurred in iron and steel commodities
worth US$342.2 million. (-25.57% MoM).
Responding to Indonesia's economic developments,
especially the inflation rate, the Meeting of the Board of
Governors of Bank Indonesia (RDGBI) on 19-20 October
2022 redefined the increase in the BI 7-Day Reverse Repo
Rate by 50 bps or to 4.75%. This measure was carried out as
front-loaded, pre-emptive, and forward-looking to reduce
overshooting inflation expectations and ensure core inflation
was maintained at 3.0±1% in the first half of 2023. This policy
was in line with the strengthening of Rupiah exchange rate
stabilization. amid uncertainty in global financial markets.
Figure 6. Value of Indonesian Exports and Imports
The realization of the State Revenue and Expenditure Source: BPS (processed by SIRI)
Budget (APBN) in September 2022 recorded a surplus of
Rp60.86 trillion or around 0.33 percent of GDP. The primary
balance surplus remained despite the increase in state
revenues and expenditures. In September 2022, the
accumulated realization of APBN revenues was recorded at
Rp. 1,542.64 trillion or 86.47% of the APBN target. This is due
to growth in taxation (+54.17% YoY) and PNBP (+34.43% YoY).
Realization of State Expenditures at the same time reached
Rp1,913.87 trillion (5.92% YoY) including the realization of
Central Government Expenditures of Rp1,361.19 trillion (7.57%
YoY) and Transfers to Regions and Village Funds (TKDD)
Rp552.68 trillion (+2.07% YoY).

Entering the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2022,

Indonesia's trade balance surplus continued to reach
US$4.99 billion, mainly from the non-oil and gas sector
of US$7.09 billion but was reduced by a deficit in the

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Logistics and Maritime Industry Review

In August 2022, global container freight prices increased
monthly to level 181 (+0.11% MoM and +42.68% YoY).
However, based on routes, the world's main shipping routes
suffered a significant decline on a monthly and yearly basis.
The container freight price index on the Asia – North America
route was at 251 (-6.34% MoM and -0.79% YoY), Asia –
Europe was at 258 (-5.49% MoM and -0.39% YoY), Asia – Asia
was at 180 (-6.74% MoM and -8.63% YoY), and the Europe-
Asia route was at 105 (-1.87% MoM and -13.93% YoY).
Meanwhile, the North America – Asia route was at 101 (+2.02%
MoM and +16.09% YoY), experiencing a significant increase Figure 7. Konektivitas Laut Indonesia (Q1 2006=100)
both monthly and yearly. Sumber: UNCTAD (diolah SIRI)
In terms of industry, the container shipping industry
This increase in container freight prices led to a decrease in showed a negative trend in October'22 with a significant
global volumes on a monthly and yearly basis. Global decline on a monthly and annual basis. The Drewry World
container haulage volume stood at 14,831,000 TEUs (-4.20% Container Freight Rate Index (-30.28% MoM and -75.95%
MoM and -0.78% YoY) in August ‘22. Correspondingly, a YoY), an index that shows the average global price for
decrease in the volume of container transport occurred on all transporting 40-feet containers from seven major world
major world shipping routes. Where the Asia-Asia and North shipping routes, experienced a significant decline in terms of
America-Asia routes are 4,206,000 TEUs (-2.03% MoM and - monthly and yearly. Accordingly, the World Container
1.00% YoY) and 456,200 TEUs (-3.90% MoM and -14.81% Charter Rate (-17.83% MoM and +8.08% YoY) and World
respectively) YoY). Then, the Asia-North America route was Container Vessel Price (-23.86% MoM and -32.33% YoY),
1,904,000 (-1.65% MoM and -7.66% YoY), the Asia-Europe which are indicators of shipping cost structure containers,
route was 1,333,000(-5.86% MoM and -7.22% YoY), and the also showed a decrease on a monthly basis.
Europe-Asia route by 530,600 (-1.80% MoM and -12.74%
YoY). The dry bulk shipping industry continued to improve in
October 2022. In September '22, the price of coal freight, the
The increase in the level of sea connectivity of ports in World Coal Freight Rate (+2.87% MoM and -44.13% YoY),
Indonesia continues. In the third quarter of 2022 (Q3'22), recorded an increase on a monthly basis. Although the
Indonesia's sea connectivity level, as indicated by the Liner geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still one of
Shipping Connectivity Index (LSCI) indicator, was at 39.84 the main factors affecting dry bulk shipping, the shipping
(+16.49% QoQ and +22.90% YoY) or up 5.64 points from Q2 industry is starting to improve. The Baltic Dry Index (+13.96%
'21. By port, the increase in Indonesia's sea connectivity level MoM and -61.89% YoY), the index showing the average
which is on a positive trend occurred in the Ports of Jakarta global dry bulk commodity transportation costs, recorded a
(+17.84% QoQ and +24.36% YoY) and Surabaya (+0.73% QoQ significant increase in October '22. The recovery was still
and +3.13% YoY), while Semarang (+1.47% QoQ and -2.28% partially observed where the selling price index of dry bulk
YoY) and Makassar Port (+0.98% QoQ and -2.43% YoY) still commodity vessels, the World Dry Bulk Vessel Price Index (-
experienced declines on an annual basis despite showing 0.33% MoM and -10.42% YoY), continued to decline on a
signs of improvement monthly. monthly and annual basis.

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Ship transportation for raw wet bulk commodities has

shown an increase, while for processed wet bulk it has
shown a decrease in October'22. In October'22 the price of
ship transportation for wet bulk raw commodities, the World
Dirty Tanker Freight Rate (+8.43% MoM and +118.92% YoY),
increased both monthly and yearly. Meanwhile, the
transportation price of processed wet bulk commodities, the
World Clean Tanker Freight Rate (-23.86% MoM and +120.63%
YoY) decreased on a monthly basis but maintained an annual
upward trend.

The performance of the wet bulk shipping industry shows

improvement. The rising wet bulk commodity prices made
the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index at the level of 1.72 (+17.83%
MoM and +138.76% YoY) maintaining its upward trend on a
monthly and yearly basis. Correspondingly, the Baltic Clean
Tanker Index (+36.36% MoM and +226.91% YoY) also posted
a positive performance in October'22. In terms of cost
structure, the selling price of wet bulk carriers, the World
Tanker Vessel Price Index (+6.24 MoM and +59.68% YoY), still
recorded an increase.

Ship fuel prices recorded a recovery in October'22. In

October'22, the price of low sulfur type ship fuel, the
Singapore VLSFO Bunker Price (+3.00% MoM and +18.67%
YoY), experienced an increase on both a monthly and yearly
basis. This increase was due to the increase in the price of
wet bulk shipping and world crude oil commodities which
made the cost of production of ship fuel experience a similar
increase.

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Movement of Key Economic and Industry Indicators

Tabel 3. Movement of Key Economic and Industry Indicators
Source: Various sources (processed by SIRI)

Release
Indicators Frequency Value
Date

Global and National Economics Indicator

World PMI Sept '22 Monthly 49.30
ASEAN PMI Sept '22 Monthly 52.30
Indonesia PMI Sept '22 Monthly 51.70
Indonesia GDP at 2010 Constant Prices Q2 '22 Quarterly 2,923,675
Indonesia Current Account Balance Q2 '22 Quarterly 3,853 M
Indonesia Capital Accout Balance Q2 '22 Quarterly 3 M
Indonesia Financial Account Balance Q2 '22 Quarterly -1,085 M
Indonesia Balance of Payment Q2 '22 Quarterly 2,771 M
Indonesia Resserve Assets Position Q2 '22 Quarterly 136,379 M
Indonesia Resserve Assets Position In Months of
Q2 '22 Quarterly 6.41
Imports & Official Debt Repayment
Indonesia Foreign Investment Realization Q2 '22 Quarterly 11,370 M
Indonesia Domestic Investment Realization Q2 '22 Quarterly 139,017
Indonesia Export Value Aug '22 Monthly 27,907 M
Indonesia Import Value Aug '22 Monthly 22,150 M
Indonesia Non-Oil & Gas Export Volume Aug '22 Monthly 52,601

Indonesia Non-Oil & Gas Import Volume Jun '22 Monthly 11,753
Indonesia Consumer Price Index Aug '22 Monthly 111.50
USA Federal Funds Effective Rate Aug '22 Monthly 2.33% P
BI 7 Days Reverse Repo Rate Sept '22 Monthly 4.25% P
Investment Lending Rate - Commercial Banks Jul '22 Monthly 10.26% P
Investment Lending Rate - State Banks Jul '22 Monthly 8.45% P
Investment Lending Rate - Regional Government
Jul '22 Monthly 9.50% P
Banks
Investment Lending Rate - Private National Banks Jul '22 Monthly 7.87% P
Investment Lending Rate - Foreign & Joint Banks Jul '22 Monthly 5.95% P
Exchange Rate - IDR/USD 19 Sept '22 Daily 14,985
Exchange Rate - IDR/SGD 19 Sept '22 Daily 10,628
Exchange Rate - IDR/JPY
Note: 19 Sept '22 Daily 105
Exchange Rate - IDR/THB
PoP = Period on Period (PoP) is the change in indicator level of the current period from 19 Sept '22
the previous one (example: Daily
change in indicator level 406
in
February 2022 compared to January 2022
Exchange Rate - IDR/MYR 19 Sept '22 Daily 3,290
Exchange Rate - IDR/INR 19 Sept '22 Daily
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Exchange Rate - IDR/AED 19 Sept '22 Daily 4,070 1
Commodity Price
WTI Crude Oil Futures Price 19 Sept '22 Daily 86.00
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Projection of Key Economic and Industry Indicators

439 431
416 416 425 415
409
398 392
379 374 366
326 328 324 318

275
259

Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23

Actual Forecast Lower Bound Upper Bound

Figure 8. Projection NYMEX Coal Price (USD/Ton)

Source: Bloomberg (processed by SIRI)

111
107
102
100
96 95
93
91 90 88
86 85 84
82 81

71
69 68

Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23

Actual Forecast Lower Bound Upper Bound

Figure 9. Projection of WTI Crude Oil Price (USD/Bbl)

Source: Bloomberg (processed by SIRI)

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October 2022 – Vol. 008

1,984 1,948
1,884
1,725 1,705 1,678 1,656
1,595
1,553
1,481 1,464
1,327 1,308 1,328
1,275
1,149 1,153

757

Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23

Actual Forecast Lower Bound Upper Bound

Figure 10. Projection of Baltic Dirty Tanker Index

Source: Bloomberg (processed by SIRI)

1,590
1,470 1,471 1,441
1,414
1,321 1,326
1,265 1,231 1,227 1,204 1,185

983 985 987 980

942

649

Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23

Actual Forecast Lower Bound Upper Bound

Figure 11. Projection of Baltic Clean Tanker Index

Source: Bloomberg (processed by SIRI)

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October 2022 – Vol. 008

363
359
348

332 332 331

322
316
305 304 301 298
294
283
273 269
264 265

Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23

Actual Forecast Lower Bound Upper Bound

Figure 12. Projection of Dry Bulk Vessel Price Index

Source: Bloomberg (processed by SIRI)

498 501
491
471 476
460 466
437 441
433 431
403
379
358
345
326
305 311

Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23

Actual Forecast Lower Bound Upper Bound

Figure 13. Projection of Tanker Vessel Price Index

Source: Bloomberg (processed by SIRI)

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October 2022 – Vol. 008

1,099

968
891 881
842 826
800 817

734 754 745

720 727 733
699
643
613 622

Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23

Actual Forecast Lower Bound Upper Bound

Figure 14. Projection of Singapore VLSFO Bunker Price (USD/Mt)

Source: Bloomberg (processed by SIRI)

8,526
8,107
7,295
6,880
6,478
6,012
5,219

4,052

2,910 2,870 2,767

2,373 2,188 2,086 1,977
1,466 1,302 1,187

Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23

Actual Forecast Lower Bound Upper Bound

Figure 15. Projection of World Container Index/Container Rate

Source: Bloomberg (processed by SIRI)

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October 2022 – Vol. 008

1,099

968
891 881
842 826
800 817

734 754 745

720 727 733
699
643
613 622

Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23

Actual Forecast Lower Bound Upper Bound

Figure 16. Projection of Singapore VLSFO Bunker Price (USD/Mt)

Source: Bloomberg (processed by SIRI)

8,526
8,107
7,295
6,880
6,478
6,012
5,219

4,052

2,910 2,870 2,767

2,373 2,188 2,086 1,977
1,466 1,302 1,187

Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23

Actual Forecast Lower Bound Upper Bound

Figure 17. Projection of World Container Index/Container Rate

Source: Bloomberg (processed by SIRI)

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October 2022 – Vol. 008

Glossary
PMI Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) is an index used to measure market optimism/business conditions
in the current month. PMI values range from 0 – 100 with values above 50 indicating optimism and
values below 50 indicating pessimism of market/business players in the current month.

LSCI The Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (LSCI) is an index used to measure the level of integration of a
country into the world's liner shipping network. The base LSCI value is the China index value in Q1
2006.

PLSCI The Port Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (PLSCI) is an index used to measure the level of integration
of a port with the world's liner shipping network. The PLSCI base value is the index value in Q1 2006.

FFR The Fed Funds Rate (FFR) is the United States (US) benchmark interest rate determined by the Fed
(US central bank) through the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting as the target for the
Fed's reference interest rate which will be realized through monetary operations.

BI 7 DRRR Bank Indonesia 7 Days Reverse Repo Rate (BI 7 DRRR) is Indonesia's reference interest rate
determined by Bank Indonesia through the Board of Governors Meeting (RDG) of Bank Indonesia (BI)
as the target of BI's reference interest rate which will be realized through monetary operations.

YoY Year on Year (YoY) is the change in indicator level on an annual basis (example: change in indicator
level in February 2022 compared to February 2021).

PoP Period on Period (PoP) is the change in the indicator level of the current period from the previous
one (example: change in indicator level in February 2022 compared to January 2022).

Freight Rate Freight rate is the shipping price measured based on the unit of measurement (UoM) of cargo
(example: USD/TEUs container cargo freight rate).

Charter Rate Charter rate is the rental price of the vessel which is measured based on the rental price per day or in
accordance with the UoM agreed between the vessel owner and charterer.

Baltic Index The Baltic index is an index compiled by the Baltic Exchange using a weighted method that refers to
the volume of shipments on the world's main routes to determine the growth in shipping costs of dry
and liquid bulk cargo (raw materials) on these routes over a certain period.

Bunker Bunker is ship's fuel.

VLSFO Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) is a type of ship fuel that has a sulfur content of less than or equal to
0.5%.

Tanker Tanker is a type of liquid bulk cargo carrier (example: crude oil).

Dry Bulk Dry bulk ship is a type of dry bulk cargo carrier (example: coal).

Clean Tanker Clean tanker is a type of tanker cargo that has been processed so that it needs special treatment to
maintain the quality of the cargo (e.g., finished petroleum products).

Dirty Tanker Dirty tanker is a type of crude tanker cargo so there is no need for special treatment to maintain the
quality of the cargo (e.g., crude oil).

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DISCLAIMER/PENYANGKALAN
Samudera Logistics Brief adalah produk kajian bulanan
yang diterbitkan oleh Samudera Indonesia Research
Initiatives (“SIRI”). Materi Samudera Logistics Brief
terdiri dari isu pilihan, perkembangan ekonomi, dan
perkembangan industri. Selain itu, Samudera Logistics
Brief juga menampilkan update data bulanan untuk
indikator ekonomi dan industri logistik.
Laporan ini disusun secara independen oleh SIRI dan
karenanya tidak mencerminkan serta bukan merupakan
pandangan resmi dari PT Samudera Indonesia Tangguh
atau anak-anak perusahaannya (“Samudera
Indonesia”). Laporan ini disediakan hanya terbatas
sebagai informasi semata, dan karenanya seluruh
prakiraan, pendapat dan asumsi yang terkandung dalam
Laporan adalah sepenuhnya milik SIRI dan hanya
ditujukan untuk memberikan tambahan pengetahuan
kepada pihak penerima informasi.
Meskipun seluruh tindakan kehati-hatian yang
diperlukan telah diambil guna memastikan bahwa
informasi yang terkandung dalam Laporan ini adalah
benar atau tidak menyesatkan pada saat publikasi di
lakukan, SIRI tidak memberikan jaminan atas
keakuratan atau kelengkapan informasi tersebut dan
dengan demikian tidak seharusnya penerima informasi
menyandarkan keputusannya atas informasi tersebut.
SIRI dapat mengubah, memodifikasi, menambah, atau
menghapus setiap kesalahan atau kekurangan di dalam
laporan ini tanpa pemberitahuan sebelumnya.
Samudera Indonesia, SIRI, maupun setiap pejabat atau
karyawannya tidak bertanggung jawab dalam hal apa
pun atas kerugian, yang timbul baik secara langsung
maupun tidak langsung dari penggunaan informasi
tersebut.
Isi dari publikasi ini merupakan hak milik dari SIRI dan
karenanya tunduk pada seluruh aturan perlindungan
terkait (termasuk namun tidak terbatas pada
perlindungan hak cipta) berdasarkan hukum Negara
Republik Indonesia. Tidak ada bagian dari publikasi ini
yang dapat direproduksi, dilisensikan, dijual, diubah,
diadaptasi tanpa persetujuan tertulis dari SIRI
sebelumnya.
Untuk informasi lebih lanjut, media dapat menghubungi
Pimpinan SIRI: Denny Irawan melalui
denny.irawan@samudera.id dan research@samudera.id
Samudera Logistics Brief
October 2022 – Vol. 008
Samudera Logistics Brief is a monthly report published by
Samudera Indonesia Research Initiatives (“SIRI”). The
material in Samudera Logistics Brief consists of hot topic
in the current month, economic review, and industrial
review. In addition, Samudera Logistics Brief also displays
monthly data updates for economic and the logistics
industry indicators.
This report has been prepared independently by SIRI and
do not necessarily reflect those and are not an official
view of PT Samudera Indonesia Tangguh or any of its’
subsidiaries (“Samudera Indonesia”). This report is
provided for information purposes only, all forecasts,
opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely
those of SIRI and only intended to provide additional
knowledge for the recipient of the information.
While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that
information contained herein is not untrue or misleading
at the time of publication, SIRI makes no representation
as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be
relied upon as such. SIRI may change, modify, add, or
remove any errors or omissions in the report without
notification. Samudera Indonesia, SIRI, nor any of their
officer or employee are not responsible in any way for
any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of
such information.
The contents of this publication are owned by SIRI and
are subject to all relevant protection (including but not
limited to copyright protection) under the laws of the
Republic of Indonesia. No part of this publication may be
reproduced, licensed, sold, modified, adapted without
the prior written permission of SIRI.
For further information, the media can contact the head
of SIRI: Denny Irawan at denny.irawan@samudera.id and
research@samudera.id
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