Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

The Philippines: Time to Update
the Mutual Defense Treaty?
March 15, 2023

As a follow up to your presentation on the West Philippines Sea CATCH on 11 March

when technical problems disrupted the Question and Answer session, I would like to
request your response to the following questions:
Q1. In your opinion, would it be better if the Philippines and the United States included
Pag-asa Island and Scarborough Shoal, both located within the Philippines EEZ
[Exclusive Economic Zone], as one of the additional EDCA’s [Enhanced Defense
Cooperation Agreement] bases?
ANSWER: The purpose of EDCA, among other things, is to promote interoperability
between the armed forces of the Philippines and the United State and to develop
maritime security and maritime domain awareness at Agreed Locations (EDCA
approved bases). Therefore, there is scope for U.S. access to Pag-asa to assist the
Philippines monitor Chinese maritime activity.
Since the Philippines does not have physical access to Scarborough Shoal, in contrast
to Pag-asa, any attempt to create a Philippine base there would provoke a stiff Chinese
response and lead to a confrontation.
Q2. During the stand-off at Scarborough Shoal between Chinese Coast Guard and
Philippine Coast Guard in April 2012, why wasn’t the MDT [Mutual Defense Treaty]
implemented?
ANSWER: During the stand-off at Scarborough Shoal a Chinese Coast Guard vessel
blocked access to Chinese fishermen who were caught illegally fishing in Philippines
waters. The onus was on the Philippines to initiate consultations with the United
States under the MDT. Chinese interference at that time fell below the threshold of
an external armed attack.
The U.S. initiated diplomatic discussions with China. Kurt Campbell and Fu Ying met
and negotiated a mutual withdrawal. This did not work out as planned as Chinese
vessels remained in the area and returned to Scarborough Shoal where they have
remained ever since.
Q3. Do you recommend the amendment to the U.S.-Philippine MDT to specifically
include (1) the use of high-powered water cannons, military grade lasers and other
forms of harassment and (2) the deployment of Chinese and other foreign vessels in
Philippine territorial waters as constituting a threat to the “territorial integrity,
 2

political independence or security” of the Philippines? In other words, action under

the MDT should not be limited until there is a direct external armed attack on the
Philippines.
ANSWER: It it clear that the MDT’s use of “external armed attack” does not come close
to addressing the security threats Chinese maritime forces pose to the sovereignty
and territorial integrity of the Philippines.
The MDT certainly provides scope for the two parties to agree to a strategy to address
these threats and to jointly implement a response. This could include joint patrols to
deter future Chinese actions and authorised use of electronic warfare means to
respond to laser attacks.
The bottom line, however, is how far does the Philippines want to go to resist Chinese
actions? For example, a relatively straight forward arrest of Chinese fishing boats
illegally operating in the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone could quickly escalate.
China could deploy superior numbers and confront Philippine vessels. The Philippines
would need to build up maritime law enforcement capability to be able to enforce its
actions at curbing illegal fishing. Such operations could be coordinated with a U.S.
presence to add deterrence.
Q4. Do you consider the increasing number of Chinese Coast Guards in waters near
Pag-asa Island provocative ?
ANSWER: The current Chinese presence around Pag-asa is already provocative in that
it directly challenges Philippine sovereignty over the waters in its EEZ and interfere
with the safety and navigation of Philippine flagged fishing boats, commercial vessels
and military ships.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “The Philippines: Time to Update the Mutual
Defense Treaty?” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, March 15, 2023. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
from the mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.