Scientific Journals Zeszyty Naukowe

Maritime University of Szczecin Akademia Morska w Szczecinie

2010, 21(93) pp. 46–51 2010, 21(93) s. 46–51

Ships’ traffic analysis in north of Bornholm Traffic Separation

Scheme (TSS Bornholmsgat) by statistical methods

Analiza strumieni ruchu jednostek w strefie separacyjnej

na północ od Bornholmu (Bornholmsgat) metodami
statystycznymi

Lucjan Gucma, Agnieszka Puszcz

Maritime University of Szczecin, Faculty of Navigation, Institute of Marine Traffic Engineering
Akademia Morska w Szczecinie, Wydział Nawigacyjny, Instytut Inżynierii Ruchu Morskiego
70-500 Szczcin, ul. Wały Chrobrego 1–2, e-mail: l.gucma@am.szczecin.pl

Key words: ships traffic, traffic flow, traffic distributions, safety of navigation
Abstract
The paper presents methods and models used for analysis of ships traffic in north of Bornholm Traffic
Separation Scheme. Ships’ traffic has been analyzed by means of statistical methods with use of data
possessed from AIS data obtained from HELCOM. The paper presents probabilistic models of ships’ traffic
spatial distribution and its parameters. The results could be used for safety and risk analysis models in given
area and for creation of general models of ships’ traffic flows.
Słowa kluczowe: ruch statków, strumienie ruchu, rozkład ruchu, bezpieczeństwo nawigacji
Abstrakt
W artykule przedstawiono metody i modele stosowane do analizy strumieni ruchu statków w strefie separa-
cyjnej na północ od Bornholmu. Ruch statków został przeanalizowany metodami statystycznymi z użyciem
danych pozyskanych za pomocą systemu AIS otrzymanych z sieci HELCOM. W artykule przedstawiono
probabilistyczne modele rozkładu horyzontalnego strumienia ruchu statków i jego parametry. Wyniki tego
opracowania mogą zostać wykorzystane do budowy ogólnych modeli rozkładów ruchu statków.

Introduction
Ships’ traffic is the most important factor of
ships safety. The precise knowledge of ships’ traf-
fic phenomenon and its processes is curtail for na-
vigational safety analysis. AIS (Automatic Identifi-
cation System) gives great opportunity for traffic
monitoring but also for discovering basic processes
which rules the traffic of ships in confined areas.
Results of statistical analysis present in this paper
conducted to find ships’ positions spatial distribu-
tion and its parameters of ships’ traffic in analyzed
area.
The Baltic Sea have relatively dense traffic.
There are two main areas which should be noted:
the areas adjacent to the Bornholmsgat and Born-
holmsgat itself and the areas off the southern parts
of the islands Oland and Gotland. The stream of
ships is compressed in these areas. There are other
areas which cause concern as well like the area
south of the island of Bornholm and north of the
coast of Poland and Germany. In the Bornholmsgat,
ships coming from the Polish coast, the Great Belt
and the Kiel Canal, the southern coast of Sweden
and a north-easterly direction converge. The main
flows of the traffic are crossed by ferries trading
between, mainly, Sweden and ports in Germany,
Denmark and Poland. Furthermore fishing activities
are pursued in the area. More than 55 000 passages
are made by ships operating in this part of the
Baltic Sea on a yearly basis. The daily average of
ships’ passages through the Bornholmsgat is around

46 Scientific Journals 21(93)

 Ships’ traffic analysis in north of Bornholm Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS Bornholmsgat) by statistical methods

150 [1]. The number of ships passing through the
area is expected to grow significantly over the years
to come due to the general increase of trade, the
growing economy of the eastern Baltic countries
and the increase of oil exports from Russia.
Navigational conditions in analyzed area
The paper presents data analysis of the vessel
traffic in the area between Sweden and Bornholm
Island (TSS Bornholmsgat). Figure 1 shows the
navigational map of analyzed area.
 two associated inshore traffic zones,
 one precautionary area between the three parts.
The direction (T) of navigation is:
 TSS, main part between Sweden and Bornholm:
038° northeast bound course and 218° southwest
bound course;
 TSS, south west part: 071° and 038° northeast
bound courses and 218° and 251° southwest
bound courses;
 TSS, west part: 093° eastbound course and 273°
westbound course.

Statistical models of ships traffic streams

spatial distribution
The theory of traffic flow of ships involved in
the phenomena described the movement of many
vessels through the traffic lane in the some chosen
period of time. One of the main parameters describ-
ing the traffic flow is the distribution, describing
the ship's hull position in relative to the axis of the
track. The information about the position of the
vessel's center of gravity, the shape of the waterline
and the course are used to define the distribution.
A simple approach to describe traffic streams is
their characterization by means of a single, specific
Fig. 1. Area of traffic analysis resolution. It should be noted that different types of
Rys. 1. Rejon analizy ruchu statków distribution in relation to the track section: strait
track or bend. The most common and used distribu-
Since 2006, ships’ traffic in the north of Born-
tions are as follows:
holm was regulated by establishing a new traffic
separation scheme. The area covered by the scheme 1) normal distribution with PDF (probability densi-
is approximately 20 nautical miles wide and 26 ty function):
nautical miles long. The water depths in the area  y  ml  2

1
are between 26 and 66 meters. The centre of the dl  y   e 2 l2
area is at the position 55°16’N, 14°24’E (WGS-84).  l 2π
To the east of the scheme is the Davids Bank with
a depth of 11.7 meters and to the west is Svartgrund 2) logarithmic distribution:
with a depth of 14 meters [2]. These two shoals are ln y  ml  2

marked by cardinal light buoys. The intent with the 1
dl  y   e 2 l2
establishment of the schemes is to regulate the traf- y   l 2π
fic flows in an area which, considering the traffic
density, is geographically limited. There is no other 3) beta distribution:
way for large vessels, except the one through the 1
dl  y    y p 1  1  y 
q 1
Bornholmsgat. In this context, it should be men-
tioned that German, Danish and Swedish charts
  p, q 
covering Bornholmsgat, a recommended routing in 4) gamma distribution:
the Bornholmsgat, have been shown since 2002.
Only a limited number of the ships sailing through ap
dl  y    y p 1  e  a y
the gat adhere to the recommendation accurately.   p
The traffic separation scheme (TSS) in Born-
holmsgat consists of [2]: 5) logistic distribution:
 two traffic lanes 2.7 miles wide in three parts, z
dl  y  
 one intermediate traffic separation zone 0.8  1  z  2
miles wide in three parts,

Zeszyty Naukowe 21(93) 47

 Lucjan Gucma, Agnieszka Puszcz

 

where: z  e
6) triangular distribution:
 2 y  a
 b  a c  a  for a  x  c

dl  y   
 2 b  y 
 b  a b  c  for c  x  b

where: y – distance to the axis, m – average of ships
distance to the waterway axis,  – standard devia-
tion of ships distance to the waterway axis, Γ(p) –
gamma function, β(p, q) – beta function, a, p, q, β, Fig. 2. TSS Bornholmsgat (names of analyzed routes)
α – other parameters of distributions. Rys. 2. Strefa separacyjna Bornholmsgat (przyjęta nomenkla-
tura tras)
The width of traffic flow is fundamental impor-
tance in its assessment. In order to describe these
traffic streams is necessary to determine the charac-
teristics of the distributions of the width of the traf-
fic lane. The paper presents the results of traffic
flows analysis on the TSS Bornholm area. Re-
searches have been conducted on the basis of data
received from the AIS receiver to the area of the
southern Baltic.

Traffic streams parameters in north of

Bornholm TSS
Four main routes have been studied: the north–
eastern (NE), south–west (SW) East, north–east
(ENE) and the south–west of the west (SWW) (see
figure 2). The main factors affecting the movement
of vessels in relation to the axis of the traffic lane
are the size of the vessels, meteorological condi-
tions (waves, wind), the experience of the officer.
An additional parameter is the one characterizing
the intensity of shipping traffic. It depends largely
on the economic situation in the market and current
season.
The research consisted mainly of matching the
distribution of traffic in relation to the axis of the
traffic lane at the TSS Bornholmsgat. The proce-
dure for determining the type of distribution of
selected parameters is as follows:
 Information on traffic received from the AIS
(for the period 01.2008–02.2009) is used.
 Data is divided on the season, types and sizes of
ships.
 Grouped samples studied separately as separate
random variables.
Defined a random variable as the location of the
vessel in relation to the axis of the track.
The data obtained was transformed by means
of the track used for the bends and straight sections
of the fairway [3].
Fig. 3. Tankers traffic at TSS Bornholmsgat (AIS based analy-
sis)
Rys. 3. Ruch tankowców w strefie Bornholmsgat (analizy na
podstawie AIS)
This method (Fig. 4) uses as a reference the cen-
ter of the track segments approximated by the
length i (the length of the section). Sections have
the shape of part-circular or rectangular. Based on
data about the course, waterline and geometric cen-
ter of waterline are calculated coordinates of ex-
treme points of the vessel (right and left), then their
distances to the track axis (the axis of reference).
Corresponding distributions have been matched by
means of the distance tables [4].
The analyses have been made on a selected set
of data from Bornholmsgat. The midpoint of the
navigation channel is used as origin. Thus, mean
values are the average distance from the mid point
of the navigation channel. The navigation channel
width is taken as the distance between edge of traf-
fic lane and edge of separation zone. Parameters of

48 Scientific Journals 21(93)

 Ships’ traffic analysis in north of Bornholm Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS Bornholmsgat) by statistical methods

the traffic streams for characteristic gates in TSS Table 1 presents descriptive statistics of the ves-
Bornholmsgat are shown in table 1. sel position relative to the axis of the main lane, for
defined gates (sections). Considered the relation-
ship between standard deviation and type of vessel
section (i + 1)
(oil tankers, all other) and the period of navigation
l (summer, winter). It may be noted that in most cas-
section i es, the standard deviation of the tanker is less than
center
other ships. The average difference between the
of the track values of deviations of oil tankers and other vessels
for the same gates and months is 4.97%. Figure 5
shows the percentage difference between the stan-
Fig. 4. Method of statistical data analysis in given sections
dard deviation of distributions.
Rys. 4. Metoda statystycznej analizy ruchu statków i podział Comparing the values of deviations for the
na sekcje drogi wodnej summer months and winter, in most cases there are

Table 1. Parameters of the traffic streams in the TSS-Bornholmsgat – describe statistics

Tabela 1. Parametry rozkładu ruchu statków w Bornholmsgat – statystyki opisowe

Gate Months / type Mean Standard dev. Skewness Kurtosis min y max y
20 1 – 2all N –42.103 873.69 0.0502 2.8441 –2904.4 2483.4
20 6 – 7 all N –108.17 806.13 –0.0791 2.9002 –2407.7 1995.1
20 1 – 2 all S 211.69 912.37 –0.1644 2.6827 –2421.3 2280
20 6 – 7 all S 165.7 908.68 –0.0808 2.4659 –2097.8 2187.8
40 1 – 2all N 182.09 878.68 0.0475 3.5932 –2700.2 2754.3
40 6 – 7 all N 44.732 809.91 0.2978 3.1413 –2249 2660.3
40 1 – 2 all S 258.79 1013 0.3159 3.1544 –2765.2 3540.6
40 6 – 7 all S 379.78 945.85 –0.1856 2.8642 –2674.5 3006.8
55 1 – 2 all NE –128.41 870.63 0.0252 2.6834 –2232.2 2268.4
55 6 – 7 all NE –33.865 803.46 –0.272 2.907 –2162.8 2062.5
55 1 – 2 all ENE –999.56 808.85 0.6496 3.5749 –2502.2 1852.3
55 6 – 7 all ENE –836.42 896.68 0.7233 3.6264 –2541.9 2223.9
55 1 – 2 all SW 1017.5 1041.9 0.1069 2.5685 –1709.9 3709.2
55 6 – 7 all SW 532 897.96 –0.2203 2.595 –2334.9 3037.7
55 1 – 2 all SWW 1195.5 704.96 –0.685 3.1463 –812.4 2489.5
55 6 – 7 all SWW 1271.8 718.82 –0.8951 3.56 –1023.8 2738.5

30.000%
30.000%

20.000%
20.000%

10.000%
10.000%

0.000%
0.000%
20 N 20 S 40 N 40 S 55 NE 55 ENE 55 SW 55 SWS
–10.000%
-10.000%

–20.000%
-20.000%

–30.000%
-30.000%

–40.000%
-40.000%
Gate

Winter
Wimter Summer
Summer

Fig. 5. Percentage difference between the standard deviations for tankers and all other vessels
Rys. 5. Procentowe różnice pomiędzy odchyleniami standardowymi dla tankowców i innych statków

Zeszyty Naukowe 21(93) 49

 Lucjan Gucma, Agnieszka Puszcz

higher values of deviations for the winter months. distribution for the value closest to the average,
This is due to bad weather conditions during this logistic distribution adapts insufficiently to the
period, and thus navigators are not so well able to extreme values. In the case of the triangular
keep the ship on course as in good weather. The distribution to describe extreme values is not
average difference between the deviations is 4.9%. entirely consistent with reality.
Logistic distribution best matches the data
around the mean value. Normal distribution is more Distribution of the traffic stream of tankers
flattened compared to the logistic distribution. Distributions of the location of the vessel rela-
There is also a difference in the description of the tive to the axis of the track for tankers and other
extreme values. Despite the good fit to the logistic ships are shown below. Tankers were divided into
Table 2. Parameters of mathematical models of traffic distributions in the TSS Bornholmsgat (in relation to different routes and
gates)
Tabela 2. Parametry matematycznych modeli rozkładu ruchu statków w Bornholmsgat (w odniesieniu do różnych tras i sekcji toru)
Gate Month / type / route Normal Logistic Triangular
m σ m σ min min likely max
20 1 – 2all N –42.103 873.69 –47.238 500.43 –2348.16 –112.95 2499.88
20 6 – 7 all N –108.17 806.13 –103.49 457.96 –2435.06 –0.77 2018.21
20 1 – 2 all S 211.7 912.38 218.35 527.01 –2451.8 399.2 2352.19
20 6 – 7 all S 165.7 908.66 171.83 529.26 –2171.48 224 2312.7
40 1 – 2all N 258.79 1013 224.44 574.52 –2797.2 75.79 3568.9
40 6 – 7 all N 379.78 945.85 396.03 546.09 –2701.15 675.8 3031.5
40 1 – 2 all S 182.08 878.67 173.56 483.75 –2729.78 196.8 2826.49
40 6 – 7 all S 44.73 809.91 18.62 456.39 –2263.4 –79.1 2682
55 1 – 2 all NE –128.41 870.63 –119.31 501.5 –2304.4 –113.6 2308.8
55 6 – 7 all NE –33.865 806.46 –19.48 458.51 –2210.6 47 2155
60 1 – 2 all ENE –999.56 808.85 –1039.33 457.21 –2561.5 –1779.1 1904.1
60 6 – 7 all ENE –836.42 896.68 –890.24 503.99 –2617.9 –1563.2 2255.3
65 1 – 2 all SW 1017.5 1041.9 999.78 608.39 –1754.2 727.3 3833.5
65 6 – 7 all SW 532 897.96 551.89 524.58 –2357.9 711.41 3059.3
70 1 – 2 all SWW 1195.5 704.96 1246.79 395.36 –916.56 1646.1 2567.8
70 6 – 7 all SWW 1271.77 718.82 1343.63 397.06 –1076 1735.4 2777.5

Logistic(171.83;
Logistic (171.83;529.26)
529.26)
XX<=–1387
-1387
XX<=1730
1730
5.0%
5.0% 95.0%
95.0%
66

55

44
10^-4
–4
Valuesx10
(y)
dl (y)

33
Values
dl

22

11

00
–2500
-2500 –2000
-2000 –1500
-1500 –1000
-1000 –500
-500 0 500
500 1000
1000 1500
1500 2000
2000 2500
2500

Distance
distance from axis of
from the axis ofthe
thelane
lane[m]
[m]

Fig. 6. Distribution of ships positions for SW lane (June–July), all vessel, fitted to logistic distribution
Rys. 6. Rozkład pozycji statków na południowo-zachodniej trasie (czerwiec–lipiec), dla wszystkich statków dopasowany do rozkła-
du logistycznego

50 Scientific Journals 21(93)

 Ships’ traffic analysis in north of Bornholm Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS Bornholmsgat) by statistical methods

two groups: up to 150 m and above 150 m. As we bution in analyzed water area. Due to small samples
can see the main distribution describing the streams more studies should be done in this field.
is logistic distribution. Figure 7 and 8 present dis-
tributions for different groups of ships. Conclusions
Presented examples of distributions are the basis
Logistic (–214.56; 464.99)
X  –1584
X <= -1584
Logistic(-214.56; 464.99)
X  1155
X <= 1155
for the development of a mathematical model of
66
5.0%
5.0% 95.0%
95.0%
traffic (tankers and other vessels). Creation of pre-
55
cise model that presents results should be verified
by studying on traffic flows and its distributions on
dl (y) 10–4

44
different water areas.
Values x 10^-4

It is noted that the distribution applies solely to

dl (y) Values

33
the AIS registered ship traffic. Thus, the leisure
22
boats and fishing boats will be modeled separately
11 to form a complete ship traffic distribution. Leisure
00 boat traffic is only to a limited extent present in
–2450
-2450 –1900
-1900 –1350
-1350 –800
-800 –250
-250 300
300 850
850 1400
1400 1950
1950 2500
2500
winter, spring and fall. Thus, seasonal variations
Distance from
distance fromthe
the axis
axis ofof
thethe lane [m]
lane[m]
will be included in the model to account for leisure
Fig. 7. Fitted distribution for NE lane (June–July), tankers boat traffic in the total ship traffic volume and in
L < 150 m the ship traffic distributions.
Rys. 7. Rozkład pozycji statków na północno-wschodniej trasie Further work should be focused on improving
(czerwiec–lipiec) dla tankowców o L < 150 m, dopasowany do
the model that will involve the examination of traf-
rozkładu logistycznego
fic flows on the open and limited water, depending
Logistic (–550.00; 350.00)
on the hydrometeorological conditions, ship traffic,
Logistic(-550.00; 350.00)
X  –1450
X <= -1450
X  350
X <= 350
and depending on the existing dangers (e.g. shoal).
7.1%
7.1% 92.9%
92.9%
88

77 References
dl (y) 10–4

66
1. IMO NAV 51/3/X March 2005 SUB-COMMITTEE ON
SAFETY OF NAVIGATION 51st session. Overview of the
Values x 10^-4

55
dl (y) Values

44 ships’ traffic in the Baltic Sea – HELCOM 2008.

33 2. Overview of the ships’ traffic in the Baltic Sea. HELCOM
2008.
22
3. GUZIEWICZ J., ŚLĄCZKA W.: Methods for determining the
11 maneuvering area of the vessel used in navigating simula-
00 tion studies. VII MTE Conference. Szczecin 1997.
–2000
-2000 –1350
-1350 –700
-700 –50
-50 600
600 1250
1250 1900
1900
4. GUCMA L.: The study of probabilistic characteristics of
distance from the axis of the lane[m]
Distance from the axis of the lane [m] traffic flow on the fairway Szczecin–Świnoujście. Szczecin
2005.
Fig. 8. Fitted distribution for NE lane (June–July), tankers
L > 150 m
Rys. 8. Rozkład pozycji statków na północno-wschodniej trasie
(czerwiec–lipiec) dla tankowców o L > 150 m, dopasowany do
rozkładu logistycznego Recenzent:
Data presented on figures 7 and 8 show that prof. dr hab. inż. Zbigniew Burciu
tanker traffic could be described by logistic distri- Akademia Morska w Gdyni

Zeszyty Naukowe 21(93) 51