Numerical Analysis of Rainfall Effects on Slope Stability

Fei Cai1 and Keizo Ugai2

Abstract: The finite element analysis of transient water flow through unsaturated–saturated soils was used to investigate effects of
hydraulic characteristics, initial relative degree of saturation, methods to consider boundary condition, and rainfall intensity and duration
on water pressure in slopes. The finite element method with shear strength reduction technique was used to evaluate the stability of slopes
under rainfall. The results of the finite element analysis indicated that the hydraulic characteristics, initial relative degree of saturation,
methods to consider boundary condition, and rainfall intensity and duration had significant influence on the water pressure in slopes, and
thus on the stability of slopes under rainfall. The good comparisons of the numerical results with statistical and observational results
showed the ability of the finite element analysis to evaluate the stability of slopes under rainfall.
DOI: 10.1061/共ASCE兲1532-3641共2004兲4:2共69兲
CE Database subject headings: Slope stability; Seepage; Rainfall; Slopes; Water pressures; Finite element method; Numerical
analysis.

Introduction soil permeability on moisture content. Thus some numerical

Rainfall, especially heavy storms in summer and long-term infil-
tration of melting snow, has caused many landslides and slope
failures. Such rain-induced landslides and slope failures are the
most common ones in many countries such as Brazil, Japan,
Hong Kong, and Southeast Asia 共Barata 1969; Brand 1984; Fujita
1997兲. For instance, the annular number of landslides and slope
failure caused by rainfall is beyond 2,700 in recent years in Japan
共Fujita 1997兲. They have posed serious threats and caused severe
damage to many countries over the years. Consequently, the slope
instability under rainfall is attracting increasing attention in many
countries. The deterministic 共e.g., Lumb 1975; Pradel and Raad
1993; Ng and Shi 1998; Gasmo et al. 2000兲, probabilistic 共Suzuki
and Matsuo 1988兲, and statistical 共Okata et al. 1994; Sugiyama
et al. 1995; Finlay et al. 1997兲 analyses have been utilized to
connect landslides and slope failures with the rainfall intensity,
duration, and antecedent rainfall.
The physical process of the infiltration of rainfall into ground
and its seepage through the unsaturated–saturated soils has been
studied by hydrogeologists, soil scientists, and geotechnical re-
searchers. Some equations and numerical models have been de-
rived and developed, and they have been comprehensively evalu-
ated by Ng and Shi 共1998兲. Several serious limitations impose
restrictions on the use of the equations and models because they
do usually not consider sloping ground conditions, down-slope
flows, rainfall intensity, and most importantly, the dependence of
1
Dept. of Civil Engineering, Gunma Univ., Kiryu, Gunma 376-8515,
Japan 共corresponding author兲. E-mail: cai@ce.gunma-u.ac.jp
2
Dept. of Civil Engineering, Gunma Univ., Kiryu, Gunma 376-8515,
Japan. E-mail: ugai@ce.gunma-u.ac.jp
Note. Discussion open until November 1, 2004. Separate discussions
must be submitted for individual papers. To extend the closing date by
one month, a written request must be filed with the ASCE Managing
Editor. The manuscript for this paper was submitted for review and pos-
sible publication on October 24, 2003; approved on November 5, 2003.
This paper is part of the International Journal of Geomechanics, Vol. 4,
No. 2, June 1, 2004. ©ASCE, ISSN 1532-3641/2004/2-69–78/$18.00.
analyses have been used to assess the failure mechanism of slopes
under rainfall 共Ng and Shi 1998; Gasmo et al. 2000兲. In the nu-
merical analysis, the pore-water pressure in slopes under rainfall
is usually computed by the finite element analysis of water flow
through unsaturated–saturated soils, and the slope stability is usu-
ally evaluated by limit equilibrium methods.
The infiltration of rainfall results in the rise of groundwater
level, and the increase in water pressure or the decrease in matric
suction of unsaturated soils. On the other hand, the matric suction
has been found to be absolutely crucial to the stability of unsat-
urated slopes 共Fredlund and Rahardjo 1993兲. Both the increase in
the water pressure and the decrease in the matric suction cause the
decrease in the shear strength of soils. This, in turn, possibly leads
to the occurrences of landslides and slope failures. Failure mecha-
nisms of these landslides and slope failures include generally both
shallow and deep-seated slips, depending mainly on the thickness
of residual soils and loose fills and rainfall properties. Of course,
long-term and continuous observation is an important means to
understand the behavior of pore-water pressure in slopes under
rainfall. However, it is difficult to clarify the most dangerous
rainfall and the factors influencing the rise of ground water level
due to infiltration of rainfall only by means of long-term obser-
vation.
The main objective of this paper is to investigate effects of
hydraulic characteristics and initial water content of soils, rainfall
intensity and duration, and methods to consider boundary condi-
tions on the pore-water pressure in slopes under rainfall and thus
on the slope stability. The pore-water pressure in slopes under
rainfall was computed by the finite element analysis of transient
water flow through unsaturated–saturated soils. The slope stabil-
ity was investigated by the finite element analysis with reduced
shear strength technique, where the pore-water pressure was de-
termined by the finite element analysis of water flow. The results
from the finite element analysis of slope stability under rainfall
were compared with some statistical and observational results.

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