Environ Monit Assess (2007) 132:1–13
DOI 10.1007/s10661-006-9497-x
Application of Multivariate Statistical Methods to Water
Quality Assessment of the Watercourses in Northwestern
New Territories, Hong Kong
Feng Zhou & Yong Liu & Huaicheng Guo
Received: 23 May 2006 / Accepted: 15 September 2006 / Published online: 14 December 2006
# Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2006
Abstract Multivariate statistical methods, i.e., cluster
analysis (CA) and discriminant analysis (DA), were
used to assess temporal and spatial variations in the
water quality of the watercourses in the Northwestern
New Territories, Hong Kong, over a period of five
years (2000–2004) using 23 parameters at 23 different
sites (31,740 observations). Hierarchical CA grouped
the 12 months into two periods (the first and second
periods) and classified the 23 monitoring sites into
three groups (group A, group B, and group C) based
on similarities of water quality characteristics. DA
provided better results with great discriminatory
ability for both temporal and spatial analysis. DA also
provided an important data reduction because it only
used six parameters (pH, temperature, five-day bio-
chemical oxygen demand, fecal coliforms, Fe, and Ni)
for temporal analysis, affording about 84% correct
assignations, and seven parameters (pH, ammonia–
nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen, fecal coliforms, Fe, Ni, and
Zn) for spatial analysis, affording more than 90%
correct assignations. Therefore, DA allowed a reduc-
tion in the dimensionality of the large data set and
indicated a few significant parameters that were res-
ponsible for most of the variations in water quality.
F. Zhou : Y. Liu : H. Guo (*)
College of Environmental Sciences, Peking University,
Beijing 100871, People’s Republic of China
e-mail: hcguo@pku.edu.cn
F. Zhou
e-mail: jardon.zhou@gmail.com
Thus, this study demonstrated that the multivariate
statistical methods are useful for interpreting complex
data sets in the analysis of temporal and spatial
variations in water quality and the optimization of
regional water quality monitoring network.
Keywords Cluster analysis . Discriminant analysis .
Hong Kong . Northwestern New Territories . Temporal
and spatial variations . Water quality
1 Introduction
The ecosystem services of watercourses such as rivers
and lakes directly or indirectly contribute to both human
welfare and aquatic ecosystem (Costanza et al., 1997).
Rivers also play an important role in the assimilation
and transport of domestic and industrial wastewater,
which represent constant pollution sources, and agricul-
tural runoff, which is temporal and commonly affected
by climate (Singh, Malik, Mohan, & Sinha, 2004; Vega,
Pardo, Barrado, & Deban, 1998). Rivers are highly
vulnerable to pollution; therefore, it is important to
control water pollution, monitor water quality in river
basin (Simeonov et al., 2003), and interpret the temporal
and spatial variations in water quality (Dixon &
Chiswell, 1996; Singh et al., 2004). Various multivariate
statistical methods, such as cluster analysis (CA), and
discriminant analysis (DA), help in the interpretation of
complex data sets, such as those created by long-term
water quality monitoring programs, allowing a better
DO09497; No of Pages
2 Environ Monit Assess (2007) 132:1–13
understanding of the temporal and spatial variations in
water quality, and in the identification of discriminant
parameters that are of use in optimizing monitoring
network (Shrestha & Kazama, 2007; Simeonov et al.,
2003). In the last decade, multivariate statistical methods
have been applied to characterize and evaluate freshwa-
ter (Astel, Biziuk, Przyjazny, & Namiesnik, 2006;
Kowalkowski, Zbytniewski, Szpejna, & Buszewski,
2006; Papatheodorou, Demopoulou, & Lambrakis,
2006; Shin & Fong, 1999; Shrestha & Kazama, 2007;
Simeonov et al., 2003; Simeonov, Einax, Stanimirova,
& Kraft, 2002; Simeonova, Simeonov, & Andreev,
2003: Singh et al., 2004; Vega et al., 1998; Wunderlin
et al., 2001), groundwater (Adams, Titus, Pietesen,
Tredoux, & Harris, 2001; Helena et al., 2000;
Lambrakis, Antonakos, & Panagopoulos, 2004; K. P.
Singh, Malik, V. K. Singh, Mohan, & Sinha, 2005;
Suk & Lee, 1999) and seawater (Reghunath, Murthy,
& Raghavan, 2002; Yeung, 1999; Yung, Wong, Yau, &
Qian, 2001). According to previous researches, multi-
variate statistical methods were proved as one of useful
tools to extract the meaningful information from data
set, for example, Simeonov et al. (2003) and Astel et al.
(2006) applied CA to delineate the monitoring sites,
Singh et al. (2005) and Shrestha & Kazama, 2007 used
CA and DA to identify the significant parameters and
optimize the monitoring network. However, CA and
DA were not comprehensively applied in the analysis
Figure 1 Studying area and
its water quality monitoring
sites.
of surface water quality in Hong Kong. In the present
study, large data sets, obtained during a five-year
(2000–2004) monitoring program, were subjected to
CA and DA to extract latent information about the
similarities or dissimilarities among the monitoring
periods or sites, to identify water quality variables
responsible for temporal and spatial variations in water
quality, and to test of the validity of the results in
temporal and spatial DA.
2 Monitoring Area and Methods
2.1 Monitoring area and sampling
The Northwestern New Territories (Figure 1) is one of
the most polluted regions in Hong Kong, which
covers the entire Deep Bay Water Control Zone (WCZ)
and includes the North and Yuen Long Districts,
Except for the town centers of Sheung Shui, Fan Ling,
major watercourses drain most of the untreated sewage
from the rural areas and receive domestic wastewater
and agricultural runoff (Hong Kong Environmental
Protection Department [HKEPD], 2004), thus, it is
greatly essential to assess the temporal and spatial
variations of water quality in this region. The
Northwestern New Territories includes 13 inland
watercourses (rivers, creeks, nullahs, and streams):
Environ Monit Assess (2007) 132:1–13
three major rivers in the North District, namely the
Indus, Beas, and Ganges Rivers, join the Shenzhen
River; four other major watercourses in the Yuen
Long Basin, including the Shenzhen River, flow into
the inner Deep Bay. The Yuen Long Creek, the Kam
Tin River, the Tin Shui Wai Nullah, the Fairview Park
Nullah, and six minor streams (the Ngau Hom Sha,
Ha Pak Nai, Tai Shui Hang, Pak Nai, Sheung Pak
Nai, and Tsang Kok streams) near Lau Fau Shan drain
into the outer Deep Bay.
The Indus River is one of the largest rivers in the
area, with a total length of about 49 km, covering an
area of 43 km2. The Beas River, a major branch of the
Indus, flows from Lam Tsuen Country Park and
covers an area of 20 km2. The Ganges River
originates in Wo Ken Shan and has a smaller of
10 km2. Yuen Long Creek is around 60-km long and
covers an area of 27 km2. With a area of 44.3 km2, the
50-km long Kam Tin River passes through the urban
areas of Kam Tin and Yuen Long. All four water-
courses in the Yuen Long Basin flow into the inner
Deep Bay via concrete channels. The catchments of
the six streams in Lau Fau Shan are very small and
vary between 1.5 and 6 km2 (HKEPD, 2004).
HKEPD has collected water quality data from 24
monitoring sites, 23 of which were selected for the
present study’s water quality monitoring network,
covering a wide range of the 13 inland watercourses.
The Tsang Kok Stream data were excluded because of
missing data.
2.2 Monitored parameters and analytical methods
The data for 23 water quality monitoring sites,
consisting of 48 water quality parameters monitored
monthly over five years (2000−2004), were obtained
from HKEPD (2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005). Only
25 of the 48 parameters, selected based on their
sampling continuity at all the selected monitoring
sites, were used in the present analysis. The selected
parameters included electrical conductivity (EC), pH,
dissolved oxygen (DO), temperature (TEMP), chem-
ical oxygen demand (COD), five-day biochemical
oxygen demand (BOD 5 ), ammonia–nitrogen
(NHþ 4  N), total kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate
nitrogen (NO 3  N), total phosphorus (TP), Escher-
ichia coliforms (E. coli), Fecal coliforms (F. coli),
total solids (TS), total suspended solids (TSS),
Sulphide (SO24 ) fluoride (F), arsenic (As), aluminum
3
(Al), iron (Fe), copper (Cu), chromium(Cr), manga-
nese (Mn), lead (Pd), nickel (Ni) and zinc (Zn). All
the water quality parameters are expressed in milli-
gram/liter, except pH, EC (μS·cm−1), TEMP (°C), E.
coli (cfu/100 ml) and F. coli (cfu/100 ml). The
sampling, preservation, transportation, and analysis
of the water samples were performed according to
standard methods (APHA, 1998; ASTM, 2001). The
basic statistics of the five-year data set (31,740
observations) on river water quality are summarized
in Table I.
2.3 Data treatment
Most multivariate statistical methods require variables
to conform to the normal distribution, thus, the nor-
mality of the distribution of each variable was checked
by analyzing kurtosis and skewness statistical test
before multivariate statistical analysis (Johnson &
Wichern, 1992; Lattin, Carroll, & Green, 2003;
Papatheodorou et al., 2006). The original data dem-
onstrated values of kurtosis ranging from −0.648 to
599 and skewness ranging from −0.295 to 27.311
and, indicating that distributions were far from
normal with 95% confidence. Since most of the
values of kurtosis or skewness were greater than zero,
the original data were transformed in the form x′=
log10(x) (Kowalkowski et al., 2006; Papatheodorou et
al., 2006). After log-transformation, the kurtosis and
skewness values ranged from −0.838 to 1.919 and
−1.32 to 1.376, respectively, but the distributions of the
log-transformed SO2 4 and Cr were also non-normal,
therefore they were not regarded in the following
study. In the case of CA, all log-transformed variables
were also z-scale standardized (the mean and variance
were set to zero and one, respectively) to minimize the
effects of different units and variance of variables and
to render the data dimensionless (Liu, Lin, & Kuo,
2003; Singh et al., 2004).
In this study, temporal variations in water quality
parameters were primarily evaluated using Spearman’s
R coefficient, a non-parametric test often used to
evaluate the correlation structure between water
quality parameters with non-normal distributions
(Singh et al., 2004; Shrestha & Kazama, 2007;
Wunderlin et al., 2001). The water quality parameters
were grouped into different periods based on tempo-
ral CA, and each period was assigned a numerical
value.
4 Environ Monit Assess (2007) 132:1–13

Table I Statistical descrip-

tives of water quality Parameters Mean SD SE Minimum Maximum
parameters
EC 607.640 1,524.98 41.07 18 16,316
pH 7.353 0.53 0.01 6 10
DO 6.637 2.51 0.07 0.7 16.1
TEMP 25.460 4.57 0.12 11.9 37
COD 34.832 51.48 1.39 2 700
BOD5 19.681 36.52 0.98 1 500
NHþ 4 N 7.124 12.56 0.34 0.005 120
TKN 9.190 14.99 0.40 0.05 130
NO 3 N 0.720 0.83 0.02 0.002 12
TP 1.918 3.01 0.08 0.02 27
E. coli 485,356 3,308,716 89,099 1 110,000,000
F. coli 917923 4,309,442 116,048 2 130,000,000
TS 465.381 1151.73 31.01 37 20,000
TSS 57.608 171.58 4.62 0.5 5100
SO2
4 0.054 0.182 0.005 0.02 4.5
F 0.322 0.14 0.00 0.2 1.4
As 5.357 7.26 0.20 1 58
Al 247.230 352.00 9.48 50 6300
Fe 1.156 1.294 0.0348 0.050 21
Cu 0.011 0.016 0.000 0.001 0.150
Cr 0.002 0.003 0.000 0.001 0.059
Mn 0.268 0.379 0.010 0.010 3.300
Pb 0.006 0.013 0.000 0.001 0.280
Ni 0.004 0.005 0.000 0.001 0.067
Zn 0.1609 0.9255 0.0249 0.01 24

2.4 Cluster analysis been successfully applied to the assessment of water

CA is an unsupervised pattern recognition method
that divides a large group of cases into smaller groups
or clusters of relatively similar cases that are
dissimilar to other groups. Hierarchical CA, the most
common approach, starts with each case in a separate
cluster and joins the clusters together step by step
until only one cluster remains (Lattin et al., 2003;
McKenna, 2003). The Euclidean distance usually
gives the similarity between two samples, and a
distance can be represented by the difference between
transformed values of the samples (Otto, 1998). In
this study, hierarchical CA was performed on the
standardized data using Ward’s method with squared
Euclidean distances as a measure of similarity. Ward’s
method uses analysis of variance (ANOVA) to
calculate the distances between clusters to minimize
quality in Wunderlin et al. (2001), Simeonov et al.
(2003), Singh et al. (2004, 2005), Shrestha &
Kazama, 2007, Kowalkowski et al. (2006), and Astel
et al. (2006).
2.5 Discriminant analysis
DA is a method of analyzing dependence that is a
special case of canonical correlation, and one of its
objectives is to determine the significance of different
variables, which can allow the separation of two or
more naturally occurring groups. DA operates on
original data, and the method constructs a discrimi-
nant function for each group (Johnson & Wichern,
1992; Lattin et al., 2003; Wunderlin et al., 2001) as
follows:
X
n

the sum of squares of any two possible clusters at f ð G i Þ ¼ ki þ wij  pij ð1Þ
j¼1
each step. Both temporal and spatial variations in
water quality were determined from hierarchical CA where i is the number of groups (G), ki is the constant
using the linkage distance. A similar approach has inherent to each group, n is the number of parameters
Environ Monit Assess (2007) 132:1–13 5

used to classify a set of data into a given group, wj is
the weight coefficient, assigned by DA to a given
parameter (pj).
In this study, DA was performed on original data
using the standard, forward stepwise and backward
stepwise modes to evaluate both the temporal and
spatial variations in water quality. The best discrim-
inant functions for each mode were constructed
considering the quality of the classification matrix
and the number of parameters. The monitoring sites
and periods were the grouping variables and the
measured parameters were the independent variables.
3 Results and Discussion
3.1 Temporal similarity and period grouping
An initial exploratory approach involved the use of
hierarchical CA on standardized log-transformed data
sets sorted by season. CA generated a dendrogram
(Figure 2), grouping the 12 months into two clusters
at ðDlink =Dmax Þ  100 < 25, and the difference be-
tween the clusters was significant. Cluster 1 (the first
period) included January, February, March, April, and
December, approximately corresponding to the dry
season in Hong Kong (October to March; Yeung,
1999). Cluster 2 (the second period) included the
remaining months (May, June, July, August, Septem-
ber, October, and November), closely corresponding
to the wet season (April to September). However, if
the 12 months had been empirically divided into
spring (March to May), summer (June to September),
autumn (October to December), and winter (January
to February), or into dry/wet seasons, a mistake in
grouping would have been made. In fact, Figure 2
shows that the temporal patterns to water quality were
not purely consistent with the four seasons or the dry/
wet seasons.
3.2 Spatial similarity and site grouping
Considering the experience obtained from temporal-
CA, spatial-CA was also used to identify similar
monitoring sites. However, the influences of temporal
differences on spatial-CA were considered. Both
spatial similarity analysis for each temporal cluster
and the integrated clusters (the first and second
periods) were carried out, but the results were almost
similar. Therefore, only the latter result is discussed.

Jan.

Feb.
the 1st period

Dec.

Mar.

Apr.

May

Jun.

Jul.
the 2nd period

Aug.

Oct.

Nov.

Sep.

0 20 40 60 80 100 120
(Dlink/Dmax)*100
Figure 2 Dendrogram showing clustering of monitoring periods.
6 Environ Monit Assess (2007) 132:1–13

Spatial-CA produced a dendrogram, shown in Figure 3,
with three groups at ðDlink =Dmax Þ 100 < 35. Group A
consisted of DB1, DB2, DB3, and DB4. Group B
consisted of DB5, GR3, IN3, RB1, RB2, and TSR2, and
group C consisted of GR1, GR2, IN1, IN2, KT1, KT2,
TSR1, FVR1, YL1, YL2, YL3, and YL4. The group
classifications varied with significance level, because
the sites in these groups had similar features and natural
backgrounds that were affected by similar sources. In
group A, four sites were located in the Ha Pak Nai, Tai
Shui Hang, Pak Nai, and Sheung Pak Nai streams,
which are free from major point and non-point pollution
sources. Moreover, based on the Hong Kong Annual
River Water Quality Report, the water quality of these
streams remained pristine over the five years of this
study (2000–2004). Group B corresponded to relatively
moderately polluted sites, except DB5; most sites in this
group were upstream where the major pollution sources
were discharges from unsewered villages and livestock
farms. Group C corresponded to highly polluted sites
that received pollution from point and non-point
sources, i.e., unsewered areas, agricultural farms, and
surface runoff from the Yuen Long and Tin Shui Wai
town centers. Compliance with the Water Quality
Objectives (WQO) was in steady decline from 2000
to 2004 (HKEPD, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005).
Hierarchical CA provided a useful classification of
the surface watercourses in the study area that can be
used to design an optimal future spatial monitoring
network with lower cost (Simeonov et al., 2003;
Singh et al., 2004). According to the above results,
the frequency of monitoring sites might be decreased
and the monitoring periods could only selected from
the first and second periods, as well, the number of
monitoring sites could also be reduced and only
chosen from groups A, B and C.
3.3 Temporal variations in water quality
Temporal variation in water quality parameters (Table I)
were evaluated using a period–parameter correlation
matrix, which showed that most analyzed parameters
were significantly correlated (p<0.05) with period,
except DO, NO 3  N, F. coli, Pb, and Zn. Tempera-
ture had the highest correlation coefficient (Spearman’s
R>0.67), followed by NHþ 4  N (R=−0.23), TKN
(R=−0.22), BOD5 (R=0.22), Ni (R=0.19), and COD
(R=−0.17). These parameters accounted for the major

IN1(1)
RB3(6)
IN2(2)
YL1(10)
YL2(11)
Group C

TSR1(16)
GR2(18)
FVR1(18)
GR1(7)
KT2(15)
YL3(12)
YL4(13)
KT1(14)
IN3(3)
DB5(23)
Group B

RB1(4)
RB2(5)
GR3(9)
TSR2(17)
DB1(19)
Group A

DB2(20)
DB3(21)
DB4(22)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120
(Dlink/Dmax)*100
Figure 3 Dendrogram showing clustering of monitoring sites.
Environ Monit Assess (2007) 132:1–13 7

Table II Wilks’ lambda and chi-square test of DA of temporal objectives of DA in this study were (1) to test the
variation of water quality significance of discriminant functions and (2) to
Modes Fun. R Wilks’ chi-square p level determine the most significant variables associated
(s) lambda with the differences between the clusters. As shown in
Table II, the values of Wilks’ lambda and the chi-
Standard 1 0.731 0.466 1,044.549 0.000
square for each discriminant function were quite small
Forward 1 0.730 0.468 1,042.314 0.000
(0.466, 0.468, and 0.481 for each mode, respectively)
Backward 1 0.721 0.481 1,007.021 0.000
and rather high, respectively, which suggested that the
temporal-DA in this study was valid and effective.
temporal variation in water quality, but the large Discriminant functions (DFs) and classification
difference among periods in temperature was respon- matrices (CMs) obtained from the standard, forward
sible for much of the temporal variation in water stepwise, and backward stepwise modes of DA are
quality. The absence of a significant correlation of DO, shown in Tables III and IV. In the forward stepwise
NO 3  N, F. coli, Pb, and Zn with period indicated the mode, variables were included step-by-step, begin-
contribution of anthropogenic sources to pollution in ning with the most significant, until no significant
the Northwestern New Territories. changes were obtained; in the backward stepwise
Temporal variation in water quality was further mode, variables were removed step-by-step beginning
evaluated using DA. Before running the temporal- with the least significant, until no significant changes
DA, the number of clusters needed to be decided, so were obtained. The standard DA mode constructed
the clusters based on temporal-CA were applied. The DFs including all parameters, and the coefficient of E.

Table III Classification Parameters Standard mode Forward stepwise mode Backward stepwise mode
functions coefficients for
DA of temporal variation First Second First Second First Second
period period period period period period
coefficienta coefficienta coefficienta coefficienta coefficienta coefficienta

EC −55.014 −55.422
pH 1,311.644 1,292.785 1,212.191 1,194.475 958.746 938.491
DO −38.209 −37.555
TEMP 293.750 326.151 262.199 294.485 241.564 273.234
COD 9.040 9.392
BOD5 −8.800 −9.579 −5.964 −6.695 −13.602 −15.057
NH3–N 6.630 6.855
TKN −11.493 −13.533 −9.010 −10.691
NO3–N −4.407 −4.225 −7.604 −7.379
TP −6.533 −5.596 −4.039 −2.918
E. coli −0.859 −0.610
F. coli 6.860 7.556 7.370 8.246 1.631 2.452
TS 91.653 92.032
TSS −19.286 −19.337
F −154.845 −156.803 −116.980 −119.330
As −21.337 −21.027
Al 49.607 49.094
Fe −0.906 −2.836 −1.925 −3.950 26.704 25.758
Cu −3.855 −3.657
Mn 41.615 42.569 32.531 33.657
Pb −52.519 −51.694 −11.644 −11.096
a
Coefficients for differ- Ni 10.389 9.587 23.811 22.901 −7.352 −8.782
ent monitoring periods Zn 14.193 14.007
correspond to wij as de- Constant −932.066 −960.612 −782.883 −812.636 −613.271 −639.099
fined in Eq. 1.
8 Environ Monit Assess (2007) 132:1–13

Table IV Classification
matrix for DA of temporal Monitoring periods Percent correct Period assigned by DAa
variation
First Period Second Period

Standard mode
First Period 84.35 485 90
Second Period 85.71 115 690
Total 85.14 600 780
Forward stepwise mode
First Period 85.04 489 86
Second Period 85.47 117 688
Total 85.29 606 774
Backward stepwise mode
First Period 82.78 476 99
Second Period 84.60 124 681
a
Checked by cross-valida- Total 83.84 600 780
tion method

coli was near zero. Both the standard and forward
stepwise mode DFs, using 23 and 12 discriminant
variables, respectively, yielded CMs assigning more
than 85% of the cases correctly (Tables IV). However,
in the backward stepwise mode, DA produced a CM
with close to 84% correct assignations using only six
discriminant parameters, results similar to those from
the former two modes, but with many fewer param-
eters. Thus, the temporal-DA results suggest that pH,
TEMP, BOD5, F. coli, Fe, and Ni were the most
significant parameters for discriminating between the
first period and the second period and to account for
most of the expected temporal variation in water quality.
Box and whisker plots of the discriminant parameters
recognized by DA as being related to the temporal trend
are given in Figure 4. The pH (Figure 4a) was slightly
higher in the first period than in the second period. The
average temperature (Figure 4b) was clearly higher in
the second period than in the first period and showed a
clear-cut temporal effect. A clear inverse relationship
between temperature and BOD5 (Figure 4c) was also
observed and contributed to the period effect. The
average concentration of F. coli (Figure 4d) was lower
in the first period than in the second period. The
average concentrations of Fe and Ni (Figure 4e–f),
following the same pattern, were higher in the first
period than in the second period.
3.4 Spatial variations in water quality
Similar with temporal-DA, The test of significance in
spatial-DA was calculated similarly to that for
temporal-DA, as shown in Table V. The values of
Wilks’ lambda and the chi-square for each discrimi-
nant function varied from 0.073 to 0.601 and 849.252
to 3,583.688, respectively, and the p level (0.000) was
below 0.05, indicating that the spatial-DA in this
study had a greater discriminatory ability of the
function and was credible and effective.
Spatial-DA was performed using the original data
set of 23 parameters after classification into the three
major groups, A, B, and C, obtained through CA. The
sites were the dependent variables and the measured
parameters constituted the independent variables.
As in temporal-DA, DFs and CMs obtained from
the standard, forward stepwise, and backward step-
wise modes of DA, are shown in Tables VI and VII.
The standard DA mode constructed DFs using 23
parameters. Both the standard and forward stepwise
mode DFs, using 23 and 13 discriminant parameters,
rendered the corresponding CMs correctly assigning
more than 92.0 and 91.45% of the cases, respectively
(Tables VI and VII); however, the backward stepwise

DA showed that pH, NHþ 4  N, NO3  N, F. coli, Fe,
Ni, and Zn were the discriminant parameters in spatial
variation, with correct assignations of 90.65% for the
three group sites (Tables VI and VII). Thus, the
spatial-DA results suggested that only seven param-

eters, i.e., pH, NHþ4  N, NO3  N, F. coli, Fe, Ni,
and Zn, were needed to account for most of the
expected spatial variations in water quality.
Box and whisker plots of discriminating parame-
ters identified by spatial DA (backward stepwise
mode) were constructed to evaluate different patterns
associated with spatial variations in water quality
Environ Monit Assess (2007) 132:1–13 9

Figure 4 Temporal variation: pH, TEMP, BOD5, F. coli, Fe and Ni.

Table V Wilks’ lambda and chi-square test of DA of spatial variation of water quality

Modes Test of fun. (s) R Wilks’ lambda chi-square p level

Standard 1 0.928 0.073 3,583.688 0.000

2 0.689 0.525 880.554 0.000
Forward 1 0.923 0.080 3,462.774 0.000
2 0.680 0.538 849.252 0.000
Backward 1 0.915 0.097 3,199.391 0.000
2 0.631 0.601 698.939 0.000
10 Environ Monit Assess (2007) 132:1–13

Table VI Classification functions coefficients for DA of spatial variation

Parameters Standard mode Forward stepwise mode Backward stepwise mode

A B C A B C A B C
coefficienta coefficienta coefficienta coefficienta coefficienta coefficienta coefficienta coefficienta coefficienta

EC −51.58 −47.94 −44.93

pH 1,541.00 1,597.66 1,568.93 1,532.747 1,591.182 1,570.373 1,220.445 1,276.984 1,260.341
DO −20.28 −12.97 −14.84 −32.839 −27.247 −29.848
TEMP 213.09 218.89 222.03
COD 12.95 16.27 17.56
BOD5 −11.10 −12.78 −12.41
NH3–N 18.90 25.88 27.21 9.535 14.228 14.516 −7.261 −2.219 −0.456
TKN −13.49 −18.86 −21.15
NO3–N −0.93 1.52 2.29 2.424 5.236 5.955 0.240 3.185 3.576
TP −9.18 −5.85 −1.92 −20.456 −19.310 −16.110
E. coli 5.03 6.90 5.61 −0.810 0.696 −0.469
F. coli 5.72 8.33 10.97 15.799 18.751 21.388 10.754 14.146 15.949
TS 85.16 80.08 77.01
TSS −19.90 −20.59 −20.99
F −156.21 −154.12 −148.12 −124.589 −123.634 −116.351
As −17.46 −15.94 −16.65
Al 45.63 45.55 48.25
Fe 32.73 42.86 39.63 60.215 72.095 69.227 61.337 71.775 68.806
Cu −5.55 −8.17 −10.58 −1.996 −4.134 −5.971
Mn 42.03 43.86 44.42
Pb −57.17 −58.76 −59.31 −24.079 −27.837 −28.099
Ni −3.90 −8.82 −5.88 −7.017 −12.028 −8.922 −23.636 −28.728 −24.288
Zn 11.34 13.06 16.84 −1.106 −0.105 3.458 −5.281 −5.883 −3.472
Constant −1,008.33 −1,106.22 −1,090.94 −776.371 −870.179 −850.577 −610.217 −691.824 −683.738
a
Coefficients for different monitoring sites correspond to wij as defined in Eq. 1.

Table VII Classification

matrix for DA of spatial Monitoring sites Percent correct Period assigned by DAa
variation
A B C

Standard mode
Group A 96.7 232 8 0
Group B 89.7 9 322 29
Group C 91.8 1 63 716
Total 92.0 242 393 745
Forward stepwise mode
Group A 96.25 231 9 0
Group B 89.17 7 321 32
Group C 91.03 1 69 710
Total 91.45 239 399 742
Backward stepwise mode
A Group 96.25 231 9 0
B Group 87.78 7 316 37
C Group 90.26 1 75 704
a
Checked by cross-valida- Total 90.65 239 400 741
tion method
Environ Monit Assess (2007) 132:1–13 11

Figure 5 Spatial variation: pH, NH+4–N, NOj3 –N, F. coli, Fe, Ni and Zn.
12
(Figure 5). The average pH (Figure 5a) was higher in
group B than in groups A and C. The trends for NH4+–
N, NOj 3 –N, F. coli, Fe, Ni, and Zn (Figure 5b–g)
proposed that the average concentration in group C
was the highest, while that in group A was the lowest.
Within group C, most of the watercourses and their
monitoring sites were located downstream or near
urban areas or unsewered villages, and the discharge
was easily influenced by wastewater from agricultural
irrigation and households upstream. On the contrary,
sites in groups A and B were relatively far from
pollution source. The result of spatial-CA also
supported the trends of discriminant parameters in
water quality.
Based on above results, backward DA was proved
as a valuable tool to recognize the discriminant
parameters in temporal and spatial variations of surface
water quality, additionally, it was essential to strength-
en the monitoring accuracy of pH, TEMP, BOD5, F.

coli, NHþ 4  N, NO3  N, Fe, Ni and Zn to clearly
identify variations in future. Furthermore, compared
to another two groups, the pollution of group C was
relatively serious and should be controlled.
4 Conclusions
In this case study, different multivariate statistical
methods were used to assess temporal and spatial
variations in water quality of watercourses in the
Northwestern New Territories, Hong Kong. Hierar-
chical CA grouped the 12 months into two periods
(the first and second periods) and classified 23
sampling sites into three groups (A, B, and C) based
on the similarity of water quality characteristics. The
temporal and spatial similarities and groupings could
facilitate the design of an optimal future monitoring
strategy that could decrease monitoring frequency, the
number of sampling stations, and the corresponding
costs for the Northwestern New Territories. Moreover,
DA provided better results both temporally and
spatially with great discriminatory ability, according
to significance tests. DA rendered an important
reduction in the required amount of data for the three
groups of monitoring sites, because it only used six
parameters (pH, temperature, BOD5, F. coli, Fe, and
Ni) for the temporal analysis and produced about 84%
correct assignations, and seven parameters (pH,

NHþ 4  N, NO3  N, F. coli, Fe, Ni, and Zn) for the
Environ Monit Assess (2007) 132:1–13
spatial analysis and produced more than 90% correct
assignations. Therefore, DA allowed a reduction in
the dimensionality of the large data set and indicated a
few significant parameters responsible for large
variations in water quality that could reduce the
number of sampling parameters. Hence, this study
illustrates that multivariate statistical methods are an
excellent exploratory tool for interpreting complex
water quality data sets and for understanding temporal
and spatial variations, which are useful and effective
for water quality management.
Acknowledgements The authors sincerely thank to Hong
Kong Environmental Protection Department for permission to
use the data and we would like to thank to two referees for their
valuable comments. The opinions in this paper are those of the
authors and do not reflect the views or policies of the Hong
Kong Special Administrative Region Government. This paper
was supported by the “National Basic Research (973) Program”
Project (no. 2005CB724205) of the Ministry of Science and
Technology of China and the “China Scholarship programs”
Project (2006100766) of the Ministry of Education of China.
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