Maharashtra : Formation of New Government

O D Mande
The results of election to state assemblies of Haryana and Maharashtra were announced on Oct 24, 2019. In

Haryana the ruling Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) did not win majority on its own , but quickly formed alliance

with the Janata Jananayak Party (JJP) and formed the government within three days on Oct 27 , 2019 . In

Maharashtra the BJP won 105 seats while its ally Shiv Sena won 56 ; the total (161) being well above the

majority mark of 145. But soon after the election result , a tough power struggle began as the Shiv Sena

wanted 50% share in cabinet berths and also Chief Minister’s post for the first 2.5 years .The BJP’s offer was

13 cabinet berths (out of a total of 39) and a post of Deputy C.M . During the course of negotiations the BJP

increased the offer to 14 berths and also plum departments like Finance/Revenue and Public works . But the

Sena was adamant on 50:50 share and CM’s post . This was not acceptable to BJP , which led to their break

up ! On Nov 10 , the Governor invited the BJP (the single largest party) to form the government but they

replied in the negative .Subsquently the Governor invited the Sena for the same . The Sena tried to form an

alliance with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Congress but failed to achieve it in the allotted time

. Subsequently the NCP , when invited to form the government , also failed to form an alliance . This left the

Governor with no choice but to recommend the President’s rule in the State . So Maharashtra has come under

the Presidet’s rule wef. Nov 12 , 2019. However , preliminary talks among the concerned parties (NCP ,

Congress and Sena ) were held for working out a “common minimum programme ” . ( CMP--such a common

programme aught to aim at “maximum common” but is always qualified as minimum ! ) But how long such a

coalition of convenience will last is anybody’s guess , as indicated by the recent Karnataka example. With

this background , let us examine the annual solar chart (2019--20) of Maharashtra . A solar chart is cast at the

exact moment of Sun ‘s entry in Aries . The solar chart

is shown below (April 14 , 2019 at 13:37:15 hrs at Mumbai)

Contd 2--
 2

Rasi Navamsa

The ascendant is Cancer occupied by the lord Moon . The ascendant , Sun and Moon forming the “ tripod

of life “ , are in sarpa dreshkan while the 4th/11th lord Venus is in mrutyubhag . Mercury is functional malefic and

, being the lord of nakshatra (air element) and Karan (earth element) , has acquired tatwadosh .(This feature

exists in the chart of Sena chief too) The 10th house shows the ruling party , rather the party with the largest

number seats , i.e the BJP , while the opposition parties are shown by the 4th house .The BJP’s (ex)ally Shiv

Sena is shown by the 3rd from the 10th i.e the 12th house . This house is occupied by Rahu and owned by

debilitated Mercury . As Mercury also represents intelligence/thinking , its tatwadosh explains the party’s

break up with BJP owing to personal ambition . The current dasa (reduced to one year) from Oct 25 to Dec 17

, 2019 is ruled by Rahu , symbolizing greed , shady activity and a state of confusion . The Union government ,

the President and also the Governor (President’s representative) are beyond the administrative jurisdiction

of a state government and therefore like ‘foreign” for the state . Hence , in the chart of a state government the

12th house also represents these “foreign “ entities. As mentioned earlier , the 4th lord Venus shows the

opposition parties . Venus is aspected by Rahu in rasi and conjunct with Rahu in Gemini (duality) in navamsa .

Hence Venus appropriately shows the two main “secular” parties viz. the Nationalist

Congress Party (NCP--54 seats ) and the Congress (44 seats ) , whose support is being sought by the
 Contd 3--

Sena , despite its strong Hindutva credentials since formation in 1966 . The Rajya saham Aries 12 0 45’ is

owned by the 10th lord Mars . The saham gets Rahu’s benefic argala (as Rahu is in the 3 rd from the saham)

and hence the “secular “ parties have been in action for forming a coalition with the Sena . The Sena Chief

has met senior leaders of the NCP and the Congress which reportedly led to the formation of coordination

committees entrusted with the task of working out a common minimum programme and other conditions of the

coalition . However , the top leadership of the Congress is said to be unhappy with this alliance as it would dent

Congress’s secular credentials . The other possible alliance BJP + NCP is relatively easier . ( A move in this

direction might compel some Sena members to defect to the BJP ). The BJP is not sitting idle but busy in

wooing MLAs from other parties . But the fact remains that it is not easy to reach the magic number (145)

without some alliance or large scale defections .

Maharashtra has experienced hung assembly like situations many times in the past as mentioned below .

1. 1991 --Assembly election gave a verdict wherein Congress secured 141 seats -- just three

short of majority

2 . 1995 --no single party got majority, but the saffron alliance secured just short of majority . Shiv Sena 73

and BJP 65 and Congress 80. Saffron alliance formed the government.

3.. 1999--- Congress got 75, NCP 58, Shiv Sena 69 and , BJP 56 . No party got majority. Congress and

NCP formed the government with the help of independents

4 . 2004---- NCP 71, Congress 69, Shiv Sena 62 and BJP 54 . Neither UPA nor saffron alliance got majority.

Congress alliance formed the government with the help of independents.

 Contd 4--

5. 2009--- Congress 82, NCP 62, Shiv Sena 45, and BJP 46. No combination got the majority but

Congress alliance formed the government with the help of independents. It was short of majority by one

seat.

6 . 2014 ---BJP 122, Shiv Sena 63, Congress 45 and NCP 44. BJP formed the government with Shiv

Sena

No Chief Minister could complete the full term of 5 years during 1991-- 2014 . The last CM --Devendra Fadnavis

--is credited to have completed the full term (2014--19) after a long gap of 47 years ! Now the state is in for a

period of uncertainty since the announcement of election result . However , this state of uncertainty can’t

prolong indefinitely and no party would like to go in for early election either; after all it is very expensive. The

formation of three party coalition has hardly made any progress . So a BJP led government can be expected

to come to power soon . (19 Nov. 2019 )