SaiBalaji Education Society’s

SBIIMS & IIMHRD

IT Park, Survey No # 54 (1A/1-1), Nere, Marunji Rd, near Hinjewadi, Pune, Maharashtra 411033

Internal Examination SEMESTER-I- Feb 2023

NAME OF THE COURSE: Decision Science
COURSE NO.:
TOTAL MARKS: 50
TIME: 2:00hrs
Question-1 Short Notes (Remembering based) (Answer any 5 (2 Marks each)

a. Role of Quantitative Techniques in Decision Making

b. Monte Carlo Simulation
c. Queuing Theory
d. Salvage Value
e. Queuing Theory
f. Mixed Strategy
g. Dominance

Question-2 Short Answers (Understanding based) (Answer any 2 (5 Marks each)

a. Consider the Markov chain with three states, S={1,2,3} that has the following transition matrix.
Draw the state transition diagram for this chain.

b. You toss a fair coin three times:

a. What is the probability of three heads, HHH?

b. What is the probability that you observe exactly one heads?

c. Given that you have observed at least one heads, what is the probability that you observe at
least two heads?
c. For three events A, B, and C, we know that A and C are independent, B and C are independent, A
and B are disjoint,

P(A∪C)=2/3,P(B∪C)=3/4,P(A∪B∪C)=11/12

Find P(A),P(B), and P(C).

Question-3 Long/Brief Answers (Application based) (Answer any 1(10 Marks each)

Q.3 (a)

four jobs (J1, J2, J3, and J4) need to be executed by four workers (W1, W2, W3, and W4), one job per
worker. The matrix below shows the cost of assigning a certain worker to a certain job. The objective is to
minimize the total cost of the assignment.

J1 J2 J3 J4

W1 82 83 69 92

W2 77 37 49 92

W3 11 69 5 86

W4 8 9 98 23

OR

Q.3 (b) The Funny Toys Company has four men available for work on four separate jobs. Only one man can
work on any one job. The cost of assigning each man to each job is given in the following table. The objective is
to assign men to jobs in such a way that the total cost of assignment is minimum.
Question-4 Long/Brief Answers (Analyzing)(Answer any 1(10 Marks Each)

Q.4 (a) Q5. From the given

transportation problem find out the
minimum cost of transportation from
factory to destination with VAM

OR

Q.4 (b) An on-line inquiry system receives two types of inquiries. Type 1 inquiries arrive in a Poisson pattern at
an average arrival rate of 0.9 per second. The time required for the system to respond is nearly constant with
an average value of 0.4 seconds. The Type 2 inquiries arrive at an average rate of 1 every 10 seconds. The
system response time for Type 2 inquiries has a two-stage hyperexponential distribution with OL1 = 0.4, a2 =
0.6, \Ιμγ = 10 seconds, 1/μ2 = 5/3 seconds; so the average system response time for Type 2 inquiries is 5
seconds, with a second moment of 83.33 seconds2 . Contrast the operation of the system with (a) no priorities

Question-5 Long/Brief Answers (Evaluating/Creating)(Answer any 1(10 Marks Each)

Q.5 (a) A food products company is contemplating the introduction of a revolutionary new product
with new packaging to replace the existing product at much higher price (S1) or moderate change in the
composition of the existing product with a new packaging at a small increase in price (S2) or a small
change the composition of existing product except the word new with a negligible increase in price
(S3). The possible states of nature are: high increase in sales (N1) no change in Sales (N2) or decrease
in sales (N3 the marketing department of the company worked out the pay-offs in terms of yearly net
profit for each of the strategies of three events. This is represented the following table

Strategies State of Nature

N1 N2 N3

S1 7,00,000 3,00,000 1,50,000

S2 5,00,000 4,50,000 0

S3 3,00,000 3,00,000 3,00,000

Which strategy should the concerned executive choose on the basis of
a) Maximin Criterion
b) Mini max Regret Criterion
c) Maximax Criterion
d) Laplace Criterion

OR
Q.5 (b) Consider the PERT network given below determine the floot of each activity and identify the
critical path if the schedule completion time for the project is 20 weeks.

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