ISSN (Online) 2581-9429

IJARSCT
International Journal of Advanced Research in Science, Communication and Technology (IJARSCT)

Volume 3, Issue 2, March 2023

Impact Factor: 7.301

Rainfall-Runoff Predictions in Rainfed Agriculture

using Machine Learning
Prof. Mrs. Dhanashri A. Nevase1, Esha Pendke2, Bhakti Chakrawar3,
Somesh Tagalpallewar4, Omkar Podutwar5
Professor, Department of Computer Engineering1
Students, Department of Computer Engineering2,3,4,5
Smt. Kashibai Navle College of Engineering, Pune, Maharashtra, India

Abstract: The project entitled "Rainfall-Runoff Prediction in Rainfed Agriculture using Machine Learning"
deals with the development of a rainfall-runoff relationship to analyze the runoff for a particular rainfall
event. The project is operationally feasible and is being made for the convenience of agricultural
researchers. The rainfall available in the catchment is the key factor for determining the availability of
water to fulfill the demand for rainfed agriculture. This project deals with the development of the Rainfall
vs Runoff Relationship so that in the future based on the predictive analysis it will help planners and
designers in designing dams, reservoirs, and ponds for the storage of water for the agricultural purpose the
proposed system is a web-based application. Based on the annual dataset of rainfall, predictive analysis of
the rainfall-runoff relationship is obtained by using Support Vector Machine (SVM) Algorithm, LSTM, and
RNN algorithm. This paper aims to provide an overview of the current state of the art in ML-based
Rainfall-Runoff predictions in Rainfed Agriculture, including various methods and algorithms used.

Keywords: Rainfed agriculture, prediction system, ensemble model, SVM, LSTM, RNN

I. INTRODUCTION
Rainfed agriculture is a crucial sector for the food security and livelihoods of people living in semi-arid regions. The
unpredictability of rainfall patterns can have a significant impact on crop production, leading to a need for effective
rainfall-runoff prediction. Rainfall-runoff is the flow of water that occurs when precipitation falls onto the land surface
and then flows into streams, rivers, lakes, and oceans. The prediction of rainfall-runoff can be used to inform decisions
related to water storage and distribution, irrigation, and soil moisture management. The rainfall available in the
catchment is the key factor for determining the availability of water to fulfill the demand for rainfed agriculture. Runoff
is an important hydrologic variable used in most water resource Applications.
This project is a window-based application for rainfall and runoff prediction. This is an Internet Overruled application,
which can be accessed by anyone having internet connectivity. This is the rainfall and runoff prediction system based
on the SVM algorithm of the machine learning model. In this system we input the text dataset of rainfall data then we
predict the runoff for rainfed agriculture. With the help of this system, we canmake use of proper rainwater for crops. In
this way, we have managed the rainwater for crops.

II. METHODOLOGY
The daily rainfall data for the years 2011-2021 have been collected from Meteorological Observatory, All India
Coordinated Research Project on Agro-Meteorology, VNMKV, Parbhani. The daily runoff for each runoff-producing
rainfall event was estimated using the SCS curve number method. The rainfall and runoff data were analyzed and
grouped in a fortnightly manner. The SCS curve number techniques are based on the recharge capacity of the
watershed. The recharge capacity was determined by antecedent moisture conditions and by the physical characteristics
of the watershed.

Copyright to IJARSCT DOI: 10.48175/568 25

www.ijarsct.co.in
 ISSN (Online) 2581-9429
IJARSCT
International Journal of Advanced Research in Science,, Communication and Technology (IJARSCT)

Volume 3, Issue 2, March 2023

Impact Factor: 7.301
III. MODELING AND ANALYSIS

Figure 1: Methodological Flowchart

Figure 2: System Architecture

IV. MATHEMATICAL MODEL

1. Load the dataset containing daily Rainfall Data.
2. Determine “Hydrological Soil Group (HSG)”
 HSG – A and HSG – B: For Konkan Region.
 HSG – C: For the western Maharashtra region.
 HSG – D: For eastern to central Maharashtra region.
3. Determine Soil Type (ST)
if HSG -D:
Copyright to IJARSCT DOI: 10.48175/568 26
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 ISSN (Online) 2581-9429
IJARSCT
International Journal of Advanced Research in Science,, Communication and Technology (IJARSCT)

Volume 3, Issue 2, March 2023

Impact Factor: 7.301
ST = Clay Soil
if HSG -C:
ST = loamy Soil
if HSG -B:
ST = Red Soil
if HSG -A:
ST = Sandy Soil
4. Slope of Soil m: 0.5>=m<=3
5. Determine “Antecedent Moisture Condition (AMC)” based on Rainfall(R):
if R < 35.6:
return AMC-I
if R < 53. :
return AMC-II
if R > 53.3:
return AMC-III
6. Determine "Soil Conservation Curve Number (CN)" to calculate the Potential
Maximum Retention
CN = 25400
254+
7. Calculate the Runoff Potential
Q= ( −0.3 )2
( −0.7 )
8. Apply “Support Vector Machine Algorithm (SVM)”
if cumulative Q <= 300 mm:
return “Construct small sized pond for RWH”
if pond size = = 700 cubic m
return crops Soybean, Green gram, Black gram, etc.
if 300>= cumulative Q<=600:
return "Construct medium-sized
medium pond for RWH"
if pond size = = 1200 cubic m
return
turn crops pigeon pea, cotton, etc
if cumulative Q>=600:
return "Construct Large-sized
Large Ponds for RWH"
if pond size = = 1900 cubic m
return crops sugarcane, Banana, etc
9. End.

V. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

The Prediction Accuracy of the model developed is 87%

3 Rainfall in mm in Andaman Nicobar Region

Figure 3:
Copyright to IJARSCT DOI: 10.48175/568 27
www.ijarsct.co.in
 ISSN (Online) 2581-9429
IJARSCT
International Journal of Advanced Research in Science,, Communication and Technology (IJARSCT)

Volume 3, Issue 2, March 2023

Impact Factor: 7.301

Figure 4: Plotted Chart for Rainfall in mm in various Regions

Figure 5. Plotted Histogram for Rainfall in mm in Andaman Figure 7. Pie Chart for the percentage of crops
Nicobar Region that can be grown in Tamil Nadu District

Figure 8. Chart for Time Series Analysis and Training

Instance
Figure 6. Graph for Ground Truth and Predicted value

VI. COMPARISON WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM

1. Rainfall-runoff
runoff prediction is an important task in rainfed agriculture, as it can help farmers make informed
decisions about crop planting, irrigation, and water management.
2. Traditional methods of rainfall-runoff
rainfall prediction typically involve the use of physical
sical models that simulate the
hydrological processes involved in runoff generation. However, these models can be computationally intensive
and require a significant amount of data to calibrate and validate.
3. Machine learning (ML) models offer an alternative
alternativ approach to rainfall-runoff
runoff prediction that can be more
efficient and require fewer data. ML models can learn patterns and relationships from historical rainfall and
runoff data, and use this information to make predictions about future runoff.
Copyright to IJARSCT DOI: 10.48175/568 28
www.ijarsct.co.in
 ISSN (Online) 2581-9429
IJARSCT
International Journal of Advanced Research in Science, Communication and Technology (IJARSCT)

Volume 3, Issue 2, March 2023

Impact Factor: 7.301
4. One common type of ML model used for rainfall-runoff prediction is the artificial neural network (ANN).
ANNs are a type of deep learning model that can learn complex non-linear relationships between inputs and
outputs. They have been shown to perform well in predicting rainfall runoff in rainfed agriculture, with high
accuracy and efficiency.
5. Compared to traditional methods of rainfall-runoff prediction, ML models like ANNs can offer several
advantages. They can be trained on relatively small datasets, require less computation time, and can be more
flexible in handling different types of data.
6. In conclusion, machine learning models, such as artificial neural networks, offer a promising approach to
rainfall-runoff prediction in rainfed agriculture. While traditional physical models are still widely used, ML
models can provide a more efficient and accurate alternative.

VII. CONCLUSION
Rainfall-runoff prediction in rainfed agriculture is an important task for the sustainability of crop production and water
management. Machine learning techniques have been successfully applied in this field to improve the accuracy of
rainfall-runoff predictions. These techniques can be trained on various meteorological and hydrological data sources to
make accurate predictions. In conclusion, machine learning can be a useful tool for predicting rainfall runoff in rainfed
agriculture. By utilizing different algorithms and data sources, it is possible to create highly accurate predictions.

REFERENCES
[1]. M.S.Pendke, D.P.Waskar, W.N.Narkhede, P.H Gourkhede "Resilience in Rainfall Agriculture through
Rainfall Management based on catchment storage-Command Relationship is Assured Rainfall Zone of
Marathwada Region ", Published on: the year 2022.
[2]. LLOYED LING 1, ZULKIFI YUSOP 2 AND MING FAI CHOW 3. “Urban Flood Depth Estimate with a new
Calibrated Curve Number Runoff Prediction Mode”, Published on: 23 Dec 2019.
[3]. YAMINA AOULMI, NADIR MAROUF, MOHAMED AMIRECHEI, OZGUR KISI2, RAED M.
SHUBHAIR3, AND BEHROOZ KESHTEGARA4." Highly Accurate Prediction Model for Daily Runoff in
Semi-Arid Basin Exploiting Learning Algorithm". Published on 25 June 2021.
[4]. Jonathan M. Framel, Fredrik Kratzert, Daniel Klotz, Martin Gauch, Guy Shaley. “Deep learning rainfall-
Runoff Prediction of Extreme Events”, Published on 5 July 2022.
[5]. Abhinav Kumar Singh 1, Pankaj Kumar 1, Rawshan Ali 2, Nadhir Al-Ansari 3, Dinesh Kumar Vishwakarma."
An Integrated Statistical-Machine Learning Approach for Runoff Prediction", Published on 5 July 2022.

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