Are we ready to face another earthquake

by

Ramancharla Pradeep Kumar

in

The Master Builder, Mar-Apr 2005

Report No: IIIT/TR/2006/6

Centre for Earthquake Engineering

International Institute of Information Technology
Hyderabad - 500 032, INDIA
January 2006
 Earthquake Engineering Research Centre @
International Institute of Information Technology,
Gachibowli, Hyderabad 500 019, AP

Are we ready to face another earthquake?

by
Pradeep Kumar Ramancharla
Asst Prof. & Head, EERC

Introduction:
Earthquake, now everyone is familiar with this word. We have clearly witnessed
during the recent Sumatra, Indonesia earthquake (M 9.0) the amount of damage an
earthquake can cause to the society. Had this earthquake occurred on land, it would
have easily damaged few hundreds of kilometers and the damage estimates would
have been unimaginable. Earthquakes are not new to our country. We have had the
long history of earthquake occurrences. Some of the major earthquakes of the world
occurred in our country and neighborhood areas. During past 15 years also we have
witnessed 6 moderate earthquakes: Bihar-Nepal border (M6.4) in 1988, Uttarkashi,
Uttaranchal (M6.6) in 1991, Latur, Maharastra (M6.3) in 1993, Jabalpur, Madhya
Pradesh (M6.0) in 1997, Chamoli, Uttaranchal (M6.8) in 1999 and Bhuj, Gujarat
(M6.9) in 20011). These earthquakes caused around 40,000 casualties (see Table 1)
and innumerable property loss. These events occurred with a time gap of 2 ~ 3
years. Are we ready to face another event?
Table 1: Casualties during past earthquakes

14000
14000

12000
Number of deaths

10000 8000
8000

6000

4000
1004 768
2000 38 63
(when?)
Where ?

0
(1988)

(1993)
(1991)

(2001)
(1997)

(1999)
Jabalpur
Uttarkashi

Killari
Bihar

Chamoli

Bhuj

Even with the current level of understanding, it is very difficult to predict the
occurrence time and exact location of next earthquake. The only way to ensure the
safety is to get prepared.

Severity of the problem:

According to latest seismic zonation map given in IS: 1893: 20022), more than 60%
of India is prone to earthquakes. Metropolitan cities like Delhi, Calcutta, Mumbai,
Chennai, Ahmedabad etc., lie in zone III or above. Not only are these cities but many
other cities in India are prone to moderate to severe earthquakes3). Will the
structures constructed in these areas withstand next event? If we look at the trend
from past 15 years, urbanization is rapidly increasing and due to increase in land
cost, many multistoried structures are being constructed. We must ensure that
 Table 2 Casualties during Kobe Earthquake

No.
Ž €of
– Casualties
@ @Ò@”
SŽ
Ž–
Time €ofS
“ death
ú
Žž Ž–€ S
ŽNumber
Total Ò—
” Ý
Œv
ŠbyÄ
ŽMedical
ˆ@ã—Ý Œv
Examiners —Õ °̂ ã—ÝŒ
by Ordinary v
Doctors
1/ 17 6̀:00 2,221 2,221 ( 91.9 %) 719 719 ( 58.2 %) 2,940 ( 80.5 %)
9̀:00 16 2,237 ( 92.6 %) 58 777 ( 62.9 %) 3,014 ( 82.6 %)
1̀2:00 47 2,284 ( 94.5 %) 61 838 ( 67.9 %) 3,122 ( 85.5 %)
2̀3:59 12 2,296 ( 95.0 %) 212 1,050 ( 85.0 %) 3,346 ( 91.6 %)
Ž ž • s Ú 110 2,406 ( 99.6 %)
unidentify 84 1,134 ( 91.8 %) 3,540 ( 97.0 %)
1/ 18 5 2,411 ( 99.8 %) 62 1,196 ( 96.8 %) 3,607 ( 98.8 %)
1/ 19 2,411 ( 99.8 %) 13 1,209 ( 97.9 %) 3,620 ( 99.2 %)
1/ 20 2 2,413 ( 99.9 %) 8 1,217 ( 98.5 %) 3,630 ( 99.4 %)
1/ 21 1 2,414 ( 99.9 %) 6 1,223 ( 99.0 %) 3,637 ( 99.6 %)
1/ 22 1 2,415 ( 100.0 %) 1 1,224 ( 99.1 %) 3,639 ( 99.7 %)
1/ 24 2,415 ( 100.0 %) 1 1,225 ( 99.2 %) 3,640 ( 99.7 %)
1/ 25 1 2,416 ( 100.0 %) 1 1,226 ( 99.3 %) 3,642 ( 99.8 %)
1/ 26 2,416 ( 100.0 %) 2 1,228 ( 99.4 %) 3,644 ( 99.8 %)
1/ 27 2,416 ( 100.0 %) 1 1,229 ( 99.5 %) 3,645 ( 99.8 %)
1/ 28 2,416 ( 100.0 %) 1 1,230 ( 99.6 %) 3,646 ( 99.9 %)
2/ 4 2,416 ( 100.0 %) 1 1,231 ( 99.7 %) 3,647 ( 99.9 %)
No
“ •úrecord
t‚ È
‚ µ 2,416 ( 100.0 %) 4 1,235 ( 100.0 %) 3,651 ( 100.0 %)
TotalŒv
Number 2,416 1,235 3,651
from: Kobe Earthquake report (1995)

earthquake forces are considered while designing these structures. Otherwise the
damage will be catastrophic.

Based on the technology advancement and knowledge gained after earthquake

occurrences, the seismic code is usually revised. Last revision of IS 1893 was done
in 2002 after a long gap of about 18 years. Some new clauses were included and
some old provisions were updated. Assuming that concerned authorities will take
enough steps for code compliance and the structures that are being constructed are
earthquake resistant. In this light, what will happen to the safety of pre-code revision
structures? These structures carry major percentage of vulnerable structure stock.
Even if we have a very good disaster response system, it is impossible to reduce
earthquake damage without considering the safety of pre-code revision structures.
Table 2 shows the number of casualties and estimated time of death (by Hyogo
prefecture medical examiners) due to Kobe earthquake occurred on 17 Jan 1995 in
Kobe city. From this table, we can understand that many people were killed during
initial few hours only. Even we can say that these casualties occurred during initial
few minutes and the reporting time is recorded as and when the dead bodies are
found. Casualties during initial few minutes are mainly due to the collapse of
structures or the dynamic behavior of the furniture. As the occurrence time of the
Kobe earthquake is in the morning, 5:46 am, 97% of people were killed in their own
houses.

After every earthquake there will be emergency activities, recovery activities and
reconstructions activities (see Figure 1,). Various problems that are generated after
an earthquake are; 1) Disruption of the community, 2) refuge camps, 3) temporary
shelters, 4) psychological problems of people in the affected areas, 5) demolition and
disposal of collapsed structures and their environmental effects, 6) ill function of
social and lifeline systems due to heavy demand, 7) local economy and business
interruption, 8) problems during recovery and reconstruction, and many more. The
magnitude of all these problems will not be so severe, if the number of damaged
structures is less. In order to reduce this, we need to concentrate on effective
countermeasures. After every earthquake in India, there is a lot of discussion among
 Integrated Earthquake Disaster Reduction System
Three major Hazard Disaster
countermeasures
? Mitigation
? Preparedness Effects of
? Optimum Recovery/ Mitigation Time
Reconstruction Strategy
Implementation and Reinforcement of

Earthquak
e
Reconstruction Strategy

Event
Emergency Effects of
? Optimum Recovery/

Preparedness
Disaster-free Period

Science
? Preparedness

Medicine
Engineering Recovery
? Mitigation

Social Science Inhabitants

NGO, NPO
Utilities &
Governments ery
c ov gy
Reconstruction Re t e
Mass Media u m Stra
tim ion
Research of f
o t
Opruct
Hazard and Disaster ff
ts ns
ec eco
E R

Fig 1. Integrated earthquake disaster reduction system

(Figure courtesy: Prof. Kimiro Meguro, University of Tokyo, Japan)

engineering community and scientific community towards earthquake safety,

however, there is not much campaign for retrofitting. Retrofitting is very essential to
ensure the safety the already built structures. This is essential because post
earthquake disaster response works directly depend on the number of collapsed or
seriously damaged structures.

Integrated earthquake disaster reduction system:

Integrated earthquake disaster reduction system (shown in figure 1) consists of three
parts, viz., Mitigation, preparedness and optimum recovery and reconstruction
strategies. From the figure, it can be seen that magnitude of disaster is inversely
proportional to mitigation level and this is directly related to the strength of built
environment. Strength of built environment in a broader sense includes all the
construction types including old & new structures, structures constructed considering
the codal provisions and the structures constructed ignoring codal provisions.
Earthquake will not see whether the structure is built before code revision or not. In
this regard, it is important to ensure the safety of all structures. An earthquake
resistant structure has following four qualities viz., 1. good configuration, 2. enough
strength, 3) adequate stiffness and 4) ductility. The structures which ensured the
above four qualities performed well during past earthquakes.

However the advanced technology we have in designing earthquake resistant

structures, the community is not safe if it is not prepared for natural disasters. A
person may be killed or seriously injured because of the dynamic behavior of
furniture or other equipment where as the structure as a whole is earthquake
resistant. Preparedness is very essential for safety. It is required at two levels viz., at
community level and at individual level. At community level all the people should be
aware about natural disasters. For raising awareness, government, scientists,
engineers, mass media and inhabitants should play to a major role. At individual level
every person should know how to act during the time of disaster. He/she should
know about safety aspects. Regular drills must be conducted for the people who will
be potential volunteers during the time of disaster. Awareness must be generated at
all levels.

Whenever the disaster strikes there will be chaos. Authorities involved in emergency
services must ensure the following viz., nodal agency, proper medical support and
good communication system. Without these, an optimum recovery and
reconstruction is not possible. After every disaster, enormous amount of money and
resources are spent on rescue and recovery operations and some additional money
and resources are spent on reconstruction activity. This cycle is repeating after every
disaster. The better way to handle the situation is concentrating on mitigation and
preparedness. The more we concentrate on these the less will be magnitude of
disaster.

Conclusion:
Earthquakes are not new to our country. Especially during the past 15 years there
were 6 moderate events with a time gap of around 2 to 3 years indicating the lacuna
in our understanding the phenomena, shortcomings in our construction practices and
the quality of construction. In this paper, it is stressed that the amount and resources
spent on pre-disaster stages i.e., mitigation and preparedness will result in enormous
reduction in emergency, rescue and recovery operations. A coordinated effort from all
the people involved in this is a must to achieve a disaster resistant country.

References:

1. IS 1893:2002, Indian Standard criteria for earthquake resistant design of

structures, Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi.
2. Jain, S.K., Indian earthquakes: an overview, The Indian Concrete Journal, Vol.
72, No. 11, November 1998.
3. ---GOI-UNDP disaster risk management programme, Urban earthquake
vulnerability reduction project.
4. Kobe net: Kobe earthquake report 1995.