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Infosys 140422 Moti
Infosys 140422 Moti
Infosys
Estimate change CMP: INR1,749 TP: INR2,000 (+14%) Buy
TP change
Rating change Disappointing growth, margin under pressure
Long-term demand intact, reiterate Buy
Bloomberg INFO IN INFO reported a weak growth of 1.2% QoQ CC, below our estimate of 2.8%,
Equity Shares (m) 4,572 on account of seasonality, the impact from the COVID-19 pandemic, and
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 7356.1 / 96.6
client provisions. Large deal TCV of USD2.3b was a tad soft (net new at 48%).
52-Week Range (INR) 1954 / 1312
However, the management indicated good traction in its large deal pipeline
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) -9/6/5
12M Avg Val (INR M) 11127 and reiterated that the demand remains strong.
EBIT margin dipped 190bp QoQ to 21.6%, below our estimate of 23%, due to
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
lesser days, lower utilization, and higher visa costs. The management guided
Y/E Mar 2022 2023E 2024E at a margin of 21-23% for FY23 (100bp cut from its earlier guidance in FY22).
Sales 1,216 1,433 1,631 It guided at a revenue growth of 13-15% for FY23. We see scope for an
EBIT Margin (%) 23.0 22.4 23.0 upward revision in coming quarters as evident from past trends.
PAT 221 258 301
EPS (INR) 52.4 61.2 71.4
Strong headcount addition at 22k, a robust demand environment, and a
EPS Gr. (%) 15.0 16.8 16.7 robust revenue guidance for FY23 points towards continued strong revenue
BV/Sh. (INR) 166 174 183 growth for FY23. We factor in 16% revenue CAGR over FY22-24. We factor in
Ratios a margin of 22.4/23% in FY23/FY24.
RoE (%) 30.2 36.1 40.2
RoCE (%) 25.1 28.9 31.8 Though attrition in LTM jumped 220bp to 27.7%, the management said it
Payout (%) 75.0 75.0 75.0 has fallen by 5% on a quarterly annualized basis. Utilization remains high,
Valuations but should trend lower going forward.
P/E (x) 33.4 28.6 24.5
INFO reported a strong FCF/PAT conversion of 101% in 4QFY22. FCF was
P/BV (x) 10.5 10.1 9.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 23.0 20.0 17.2 largely flat YoY in 4QFY22.
Div Yield (%) 2.2 2.6 3.1 We have lowered our FY23/FY24 EPS estimate by 5% on slower growth and
margin pressure. We view INFO as a key beneficiary of an acceleration in IT
Shareholding pattern (%) spends, given its capabilities around Cloud and Digital transformation. We
As On Dec-21 Sep-21 Dec-20 value the stock at 28x FY24E EPS and reiterate our Buy rating.
Promoter 13.1 13.1 13.0
DII 16.3 15.7 23.8
Disappointing result, margin under pressure
FII 33.5 33.8 32.6 In CC terms, revenue grew 20.6% YoY in 4QFY22. In INR terms, EBIT/PAT
Others 37.1 37.4 30.7 grew by 8%/12% YoY.
FII Includes depository receipts In FY22, USD revenue/INR EBIT/INR PAT grew by 20%/14%/14% YoY.
In 4QFY22, revenue grew 1.2% QoQ CC, below our estimate of 2.8% QoQ.
Reported USD grew 0.7% QoQ.
Growth was a function of the outperformance in Manufacturing (+51% YoY
CC), Communications (+29%), and Hi-Tech (+21%).
In terms of geographies, the US grew 18.5% YoY CC, Europe rose 28.3%, and
RoW increased by 13.9%.
Digital grew by 49% YoY CC, implying 59% of total revenue.
Large deal TCV in 4QFY22 stood at USD2.3b. Deal wins stood at USD9.5b in
FY22.
EBIT margin dipped by 190bp QoQ to 21.6% (est. 23%) due to: 1) lesser days
and client provisions (1.6%), 2) lower utilization (0.6%), and 3) visa, other
costs, and one-off tailwind in 3QFY22 (1%).
Net profit fell 2.1% QoQ to INR57b, below our estimate of INR61b.
Attrition inched up by 220bp QoQ, while utilization, including trainees,
moderated to 87%.
DSO (LTM) reduced by four days sequentially to 67 days.
Mukul Garg – Research analyst (Mukul.Garg@MotilalOswal.com)
Raj Prakash Bhanushali – Research analyst (Raj.Bhanushali@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Infosys
FCF/PAT conversion stood at 101% for 4QFY22. FCF was largely flat YoY in
4QFY22. Total cash and investments in 4QFY22 stood at USD4.9b.
The management guided at 13-15% CC growth for FY23, with a margin band of
21-23%.
Highlights from the management commentary –
Revenue was impacted by seasonality, the COVID-19 pandemic, and client
provisions created in 4QFY22 (less than 1% of revenue and expected to reverse
going forward).
The company witnessed broad-based growth across all sectors and core
geographies, with the Digital business growing 41% YoY CC.
INFO reported a TCV of USD2.3b, of which 48% were net new. The pipeline is
healthy and has a good number of small, medium, and large deals. It has the
largest ever large deal pipeline.
Margin in 4QFY22 stood at 21.6% (-150bp QoQ), impacted by: 1) lesser days and
client provisions (1.6%), 2) lower utilization (0.6%), and 3) higher visa, other
costs, and a one-off tailwind in 3QFY22 (1%).
Margin headwinds for FY23 include travel costs, on-site-offshore mix, and
utilization. Reduced dependency on sub-contractor costs and efficiencies from
automation are margin tailwinds for FY23.
Valuation and view
INFO posted weak earnings in 4QFY22 with slow growth and a meaningful dip in
margin. Though growth in 4QFY22 was muted, demand remains intact and the
order book remains strong. The management’s FY23 growth guidance and high
headcount addition provide further visibility on demand.
We expect INFO to deliver margin on the higher side of its guidance band, with
strong growth and reduced dependence on sub-contractors as attrition falls.
We expect INFO to be a key beneficiary of an acceleration in IT spends. Based on
our revised estimates, the stock is currently trading at 25x FY24 EPS. We value
the stock at 28x FY24E EPS, implying a TP of INR2,000.
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Infosys
Margin performance
Margin in 4QFY22 stood at 21.6% (-150bp QoQ), impacted by: 1) lesser days and
client provisions (1.6%), 2) lower utilization (0.6%), and 3) higher visa, other
costs, and a one-off tailwind in 3QFY22 (1%).
Margin headwinds for FY23 include travel costs, on-site-offshore mix, and
utilization. Reduced dependency on sub-contractor costs and efficiencies from
automation are margin tailwinds for FY23.
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Infosys
The management said there are some positive discussions happening with
clients on pricing.
It provided a margin guidance of 21-23% for FY23.
Other highlights
INFO hired a record 22k employees in 4QFY22. The management highlighted
plans to hire over 50k freshers in FY23 through campus programs.
Though LTM attrition rose 220bp to 27.7%, the company saw a cool-off in
attrition on a quarterly annualized basis by 5% in 4Q after a flat 3QFY22. It
expects the attrition to reduce in FY23.
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Infosys
Story in charts
Exhibit 4: Net new deal wins constitute 48% of total large deals in 4QFY22
0.4 5.2
1.6 1.8 1.4 1.2
2.2 0.7 2.7 1.0 1.4
0.6 1.2 1.4
0.9 1.2 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1
0.5 0.3
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 5: Revenue grew 1.2% QoQ (CC) in 4QFY22 Exhibit 6: Margin dips by 190bp in 4QFY22
(0.8)
(2.0)
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
Source: Company, MOFSL Source: Company, MOFSL
Exhibit 7: Offshoring ratio largely stable Exhibit 8: Utilization moderates to 87% in 4QFY22
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
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Infosys
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